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View Full Version : Poll: Prediction Time - Who Will Be Duke's Starting Center?



Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 03:39 PM
Get on the record.

"Starting Center" here is defined as the player on Duke's roster who will spend the most minutes this season guarding the opposing team's center.

We'll check back in the fall/winter to see who's right (or is on pace to be right at that point). And then we'll check back at the end of the season for the conclusive answer.

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 03:42 PM
This thread can also be used throughout the summer for ongoing analysis of Duke's center situation, which seemingly will be a big topic of interest to Duke fans this season.

You can offer analysis of your choice here and participate in friendly debate over other choices, i.e. business as usual for DBR.

Bluedog
05-21-2013, 03:50 PM
Do they keep readily available stats of who is defending the opposing team's center and for how many minutes? Just curious where you get that data.

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 03:51 PM
Vote, por favor. I kinda want to see what the results will look like as I think the fanbase is all over the place on this one.

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 03:53 PM
Do they keep readily available stats of who is defending the opposing team's center and for how many minutes? Just curious where you get that data.

Odds are it'll be obvious who is spending the most time guarding the center. But if not, I'll find a way to get the data.

CLW
05-21-2013, 04:09 PM
Tough call in my mind right now between Amile and Josh. Amile is sort of a "wild card" we don't know how much bulk he can put on and we don't know how much he will improve his game. I think we know what we will get with Josh at this point.

Ideally, I think we would probably hope Amile makes some sort of huge leap in terms of development and size. However, I just don't know if Amile can put on the necessary weight/strength + Josh being a senior will hopefully provide some leadership on the floor so I went with Hairston.

jimsumner
05-21-2013, 04:23 PM
Jefferson, Hairston, Plumlee, Parker and Murphy will each play eight minutes per game at the 5.

Think hockey line changes.

Ojeleye at the 5? Now, that's just silly. :)

MarkD83
05-21-2013, 04:26 PM
I agree with Jim about the hockey like changes.

Here is hoping that with the players Duke has that they will put so much pressure on the perimeter and Duke will be in transition enough that the other team will have to put their true centers on the bench.

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 04:53 PM
Interesting results so far (through 24 votes). 4 players have received votes, but 1 of them has as many votes as the other 3 combined.

So we have an early leader, which I wasn't really expecting; I thought the votes would be even more spread out among the players than what has occurred.

Let's see if this trend holds.

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 05:38 PM
Hmmm, let's begin to understand why everyone is voting the way they are.

Let's start with the Jabari voters.

What is your reasonining? Is it one or more of the following?

(1) Jabari will not wear down over the course of the season guarding centers
(2) Jabari WILL wear down, but Coach K is unaware that this will happen and will have him guarding centers.
(3) Duke's best lineup will be 4 guards around Jabari, e.g. Cook, Dawkins/Thornton, Sulaimon, Hood, Jabari, and Jabari will have no choice but to guard the center in those lineups. If so, do you still consider Duke to be a national championship contender with this lineup?
(4) Something else. Please elaborate.

Thanks! I want to know what people are thinking.

Kedsy
05-21-2013, 05:43 PM
Hmmm, let's begin to understand why everyone is voting the way they are.

Let's start with the Jabari voters.

What is your reasonining? Is it one or more of the following?

(1) Jabari will not wear down over the course of the season guarding centers
(2) Jabari WILL wear down, but Coach K is unaware that this will happen and will have him guarding centers.
(3) Duke's best lineup will be 4 guards around Jabari, e.g. Cook, Dawkins/Thornton, Sulaimon, Hood, Jabari, and Jabari will have no choice but to guard the center in those lineups. If so, do you still consider Duke to be a national championship contender with this lineup?
(4) Something else. Please elaborate.

Thanks! I want to know what people are thinking.

I voted for Amile, but you left out one of the more plausible explanations for Jabari which is he'll play wing on offense (with Amile playing post on offense) but defend the post on defense because he's better suited to guard opposing centers than Amile is. Or would you consider this to be included in your #1?

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 05:48 PM
I voted for Amile, but you left out one of the more plausible explanations for Jabari which is he'll play wing on offense (with Amile playing post on offense) but defend the post on defense because he's better suited to guard opposing centers than Amile is. Or would you consider this to be included in your #1?

Yes, I would roll that into #1. If one agrees that Jabari is one of Duke's top 3 players (perhaps the best player), it would make more sense for Amile to guard the center in a Jabari/Amile frontcourt pairing. Jabari should only guard the center in a Jabari/Amile pairing if guarding centers won't wear him down over the course of the season.

It's cutthroat logic, I admit, but it's better for the team's 5th/6th best player to wear down over the course of the season rather than the team's #1, #2, or #3 player.

matt1
05-21-2013, 06:15 PM
What about Tarim Black, the transfer from Memphis? Is he still considering us?

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 06:19 PM
What about Tarim Black, the transfer from Memphis? Is he still considering us?

Tarik Black chose Kansas: http://www2.kusports.com/news/2013/may/20/report-memphis-forward-tarik-black-transfer-ku/?mens_basketball

CDu
05-21-2013, 06:28 PM
Yes, I would roll that into #1. If one agrees that Jabari is one of Duke's top 3 players (perhaps the best player), it would make more sense for Amile to guard the center in a Jabari/Amile frontcourt pairing. Jabari should only guard the center in a Jabari/Amile pairing if guarding centers won't wear him down over the course of the season.

It's cutthroat logic, I admit, but it's better for the team's 5th/6th best player to wear down over the course of the season rather than the team's #1, #2, or #3 player.

It may or may not be cutthroat logic, but I think it isn't very sound logic.

The decision will hinge on a combination of things, all culminating to what Coach K feels gives the team the best chance to win each game over the course of the season. This could include (but is not necessarily limited to) the following:
- will Parker wear down if he has to guard centers whenever Jefferson is in the game?
- can Jefferson do well enough defensively at center to afford the luxury of playing Parker at PF?
- (a combination of the above) which scenario is better for the team: Parker against bigger guys or Jefferson against MUCH bigger guys?
- can Hairston or Plumlee give enough quality minutes at the 5 to allow both Parker and Jefferson spend most of their time at the 4?

You seem to have decided that the only relevant consideration is one of fatigue for Parker. And it is fine to have that opinion. But concern over fatigue simply isn't the only reason one one could have a differing opinion. One could very conceivably believe that Parker may get somewhat fatigued guarding centers, but ALSO believe that it gives us our best chance to win (both in a single game and over the course of the season) because the alternative (playing Jefferson at C) is too much of a liability defensively.

jimrowe0
05-21-2013, 06:29 PM
Marshall Plumlee...followed by Amile

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 06:37 PM
You seem to have decided that the only relevant consideration is one of fatigue for Parker. And it is fine to have that opinion. But concern over fatigue simply isn't the only reason one one could have a differing opinion. One could very conceivably believe that Parker may get somewhat fatigued guarding centers, but ALSO believe that it gives us our best chance to win (both in a single game and over the course of the season) because the alternative (playing Jefferson at C) is too much of a liability defensively.

True, I was missing that option. It is possible that Amile could be so much more horrible at post defense than Jabari that even a fatigued Jabari would make Duke a better team rather than allowing Amile to guard the post, all while keeping in mind that guarding the post is really a team effort more than an individual effort anyway. That certainly could be argued. I just don't find it to be persuasive. But reasonable minds can disagree, and that's what I'm trying to find out with this discussion, i.e. what people are thinking, where do the disagreements lie?

CDu
05-21-2013, 06:42 PM
True. It is possible that Amile could be so much more horrible at post defense than Jabari that even a fatigued Jabari would make Duke a better team rather than allowing Amile to guard the post, all while keeping in mind that guarding the post is really a team effort more than an individual effort anyway. That certainly could be argued. I just don't find it to be persuasive. But reasonable minds can disagree, and that's what I'm trying to find out with this discussion, i.e. what people are thinking, where do the disagreements lie?

It goes even grayer than you note here. One could also think it faigues Parker some, but that it is a necessary evil to give a more effective defense, fewer fouls, and more PT for Jefferson (and hence less PT required of arguably inferior players in Hairston and Plumlee). So it doesn't just have to be that Jefferson is so horrible at defense.

devildeac
05-21-2013, 06:46 PM
Jefferson, Hairston, Plumlee, Parker and Murphy will each play eight minutes per game at the 5.

Think hockey line changes.

Ojeleye at the 5? Now, that's just silly.

Almost makes sense, except I think most teams only have four "lines" and I doubt the fourth line sees as much ice time as each of the other three:rolleyes:;). But, if one of the guys picks up a couple quick fouls in his first four minute "shift," K might have to go to his bench early and often, thereby not distributing playing time in this fashion. But, think of the flexibility K will have putting a different type player at the 5 spot either just before or just after each media TO;)! Not to mention the confusion it will cause to the opposing coaches/teams!





(attempt at light-hearted response to Jim's idea:o)

Wander
05-21-2013, 07:05 PM
Let's start with the Jabari voters.

What is your reasonining? Is it one or more of the following?

(1) Jabari will not wear down over the course of the season guarding centers
(2) Jabari WILL wear down, but Coach K is unaware that this will happen and will have him guarding centers.
(3) Duke's best lineup will be 4 guards around Jabari, e.g. Cook, Dawkins/Thornton, Sulaimon, Hood, Jabari, and Jabari will have no choice but to guard the center in those lineups. If so, do you still consider Duke to be a national championship contender with this lineup?
(4) Something else. Please elaborate.

Thanks! I want to know what people are thinking.

As someone who voted for Jabari, my reasoning is: look at the minutes per game for the 2008 Duke team.

CDu
05-21-2013, 07:09 PM
Jefferson, Hairston, Plumlee, Parker and Murphy will each play eight minutes per game at the 5.

Think hockey line changes.

Ojeleye at the 5? Now, that's just silly. :)

I suspect that this post was in jest, but I could see a little truth in it - just not with Murphy. I could certainly see both Plumlee and Hairston each logging 10-12 mpg at C, with Parker and Jefferson each getting 8-10 mpg ( or something to that effect) there. The PF minutes would then go mostly to Parker (20+), then to Jefferson (10-12), then the rest to Hood/Murphy. It would be a situation not unlike the early Singler years, in which 4 guys took turns at C.

NSDukeFan
05-21-2013, 07:28 PM
I suspect that this post was in jest, but I could see a little truth in it - just not with Murphy. I could certainly see both Plumlee and Hairston each logging 10-12 mpg at C, with Parker and Jefferson each getting 8-10 mpg ( or something to that effect) there. The PF minutes would then go mostly to Parker (20+), then to Jefferson (10-12), then the rest to Hood/Murphy. It would be a situation not unlike the early Singler years, in which 4 guys took turns at C.

This was basically my thinking with my vote for Hairston. I wasn't sure of anyone logging 20 minutes guarding the opponent's biggest player. I am going with the big by committee approach. I'm not sure that's likely, I just don't see Jabari guarding the biggest guy more than half his time next year and feel that Amile will spend some of his time guarding the second biggest guy. I also am not sure that MP3 will be the best option for more than 10 minutes a game. I am really interested to see how coach K and the staff will figure it out, even though I realize (for good reason) the bench guys will play less than I hope, as always.

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 07:34 PM
As someone who voted for Jabari, my reasoning is: look at the minutes per game for the 2008 Duke team.

In 2008, the predominant lineup was Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Nelson, and Singler and thus Singler played a lot of 5. So you believe this season will look a lot like that -- 4 guards/wings around Jabari? (Followup: is that lineup around Jabari a championship contender in your opinion?)

jimsumner
05-21-2013, 07:37 PM
I suspect that this post was in jest, but I could see a little truth in it - just not with Murphy. I could certainly see both Plumlee and Hairston each logging 10-12 mpg at C, with Parker and Jefferson each getting 8-10 mpg ( or something to that effect) there. The PF minutes would then go mostly to Parker (20+), then to Jefferson (10-12), then the rest to Hood/Murphy. It would be a situation not unlike the early Singler years, in which 4 guys took turns at C.

A little jest, a little rock and roll.

I suspect Duke hopes it can utilize Jefferson, Hairston and Plumlee in such a way that they effectively eat most of the 40 mpg at the 5, with Parker manning the spot at the very least in end-of-game situations where each of the above-mentioned trio is a bit of a liability in the ball-handling/foul-shooting areas.

But if not, why not throw Murphy against the wall and see if he sticks? Metaphorically, of course. He's 6-8, 220, that's as big as Lance Thomas when he played the 5and in the Kyle Singler, circa 2008 neighborhood. I'm not talking 30 mpg, just part of a rotation. In the last decade we've seen Reggie Love and David McClure garner some PT at the 5 and we all remember John Smith, Robert Brickey, Chris Carrawell giving it a go. It's not like it's unprecedented. Or irrational.

Troublemaker
05-21-2013, 07:39 PM
It goes even grayer than you note here. One could also think it faigues Parker some, but that it is a necessary evil to give a more effective defense, fewer fouls, and more PT for Jefferson (and hence less PT required of arguably inferior players in Hairston and Plumlee). So it doesn't just have to be that Jefferson is so horrible at defense.

I consider not fouling to be part of playing effective defense. But that's an interesting nuance you brought up, i.e. keeping Jefferson on the court as much as possible due to lack of confidence in Hairston/MP3.

1999ballboy
05-21-2013, 08:28 PM
I think this coming year will be a lot like late '97 or mid-'98. In late '97, Newton was benched, and Roshown McLeod and Chris Carrawell spent time in the post. In mid-'98, Elton Brand was injured, and we used those same guys plus Shane Battier. This year, we will also need to rotate 6'7 to 6'8 guys in the post- I'm guessing that Hairston, Jefferson, and Parker will split the duty.

I'm not totally discounting Marshall, but his being our only guy who's built like a center doesn't guarantee him the lion's share of playing time, the same way that Taymon Domzalski and Chris Burgess weren't guaranteed prominent post roles in those two seasons.

I know that Coach K doesn't usually make decisions based on things like this, but I say there's no way that a potential NBA lottery small forward in next year's draft spends most of his time at Duke playing center. So I think the main center job will be split mostly between Jefferson and Hairston, with MP3 and Parker filling in for spot duty-- and Parker of course playing plenty at forward as well.

Who plays the most? I think it depends largely on Jefferson's defensive progress and Hairston's ability to stay out of foul trouble.

jimsumner
05-21-2013, 08:47 PM
The reason I like Jefferson as the primary option as the fifth starter is that he fits in so well with the Cook-Sulaimon-Hood-Parker-run-the-dickens-out-of-the-other-team-lineup. Start those five guys, run at every opportunity and dare the other team to match up.

Of course, you have to play defense to. And I have no doubt that there will be times when some 260-pounder will back Jefferson down and muscle it in.

But mismatches work both ways. That 260-pounder is going to try and block out Jefferson on the boards and come up empty. He's going to chase Jefferson on a fast break and be three steps behind, as Jefferson finishes.

That doesn't mean I think Jefferson is ready for the bulk of minutes at the 5. Hairston and Plumlee bring different games, different opportunities and, yes, different liabilities.

So, I'm thinking something of a committee approach, with lots of variations based on situations, match-ups, who's hot, who's not. But K has always liked gazelles, always prioritized quickness and mobility over size. And that seems to point towards Jefferson. As I see it.

Bob Green
05-21-2013, 08:49 PM
Let's start with the Jabari voters.

What is your reasonining? Is it one or more of the following?

(4) Something else. Please elaborate.



I voted for Jabari Parker because of the wording in the poll question. Specifically, the definition of "starting center" being the player who spends the most minutes guarding the opponent's center. IMO, that will be Jabari Parker just like it was Kyle Singler when he was a freshman. On the offensive end of the court, Jefferson will operate in the post and Parker's role will be as the stretch 4.

Wander
05-21-2013, 10:22 PM
In 2008, the predominant lineup was Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Nelson, and Singler and thus Singler played a lot of 5. So you believe this season will look a lot like that -- 4 guards/wings around Jabari? (Followup: is that lineup around Jabari a championship contender in your opinion?)

Yeah, that's my guess. Except that the team will be significantly better than the 2008 team, largely because of the Cook vs Paulus comparison as well as a better bench. Serious championship contender? I don't know. Probably, I guess. But I'd like to wait and see just how good Kentucky and Louisville are first.

Dukehky
05-21-2013, 11:00 PM
I voted for Amile. I think that his length and athleticism are the most important thing in defending the college 5 position, especially when that position is depleted of centers who could really punish a defender like Amile. Other than the WF Center, there aren't any conventional, serious low post threats that immediately come to my mind (granted, I'm not huge on the knowledge of the incoming teams). I think that Amile's versatility defensively and hopefully improvement in some level of midrange game will make him a fine "Center."

Maybe Marshall will be just like Mason this year... Doubt it, but that would be nice. I hope he improves enough/stays healthy to the point where he can at least be a rotation player because his size and motor certainly aren't going to hurt.

I really don't believe that Jabari Parker is going to spend any substantial amount of time at the 5 on defense. His abilities would be far better utilized on the perimeter. That's just my belief, I don't think that it's going to happen, and to be honest, I don't want to see it happen, because if we HAVE to have Jabari guarding Centers then that just means that our other 5 prospects are not good enough to be in the game, which is a bad thing.

Josh. Oh goodness. He's not athletic enough to guard fours, and not really big enough to guard fives. Yeah his energy is good, but I don't think Josh is good enough, let alone big enough to start for a Top-5 Duke team. I've been saying it for 3 years, I hope he proves me wrong, but I think his limitations are defined at this point. I see his role staying the same as it was this past year, somebody to come in to give breaks to whoever did start, take some charges, hopefully give some positive energy plays, and probably jack up some ill advised 18 footers.

As for Alex/Semi I don't think they can guard the 5 spot. I don't think they have the ability or the mentality to do it. I'm really curious to see how Semi adjusts to major competition, as many have said, he dominated inferior competition. He's a physical specimen and it'd be great for him to grow a few inches, but I'd be pleasantly surprised to see him garner any minutes.

Andre Dawkins- somebody commented earlier about Andre being in one of the four guard line-ups, and I just don't think Andre is going to play very much this year. I absolutely love the kid, he had an imperative role in getting us to the Final Four in 2010 and for that, forever grateful. However he did just completely take a year off from basketball. He was rarely around this year, he gained a lot of weight. It's going to take him a while to get back into shape, let alone ACC Basketball shape. Granted his shot isn't going to go away completely, but as K has shown in the past, Dawkins shooting only games aren't going to get him a lot of minutes. I'm glad his back, to be honest, I'm a little shocked he decided to come back, and I hope it was the right call for him to do so.

I am extremely comfortable with both our PG and back-up PG situation though.

We could always just play TT at center on Defense... He kinda seems to do it half the time anyways.

jimsumner
05-21-2013, 11:21 PM
Andre Dawkins- somebody commented earlier about Andre being in one of the four guard line-ups, and I just don't think Andre is going to play very much this year. I absolutely love the kid, he had an imperative role in getting us to the Final Four in 2010 and for that, forever grateful. However he did just completely take a year off from basketball. He was rarely around this year, he gained a lot of weight. It's going to take him a while to get back into shape, let alone ACC Basketball shape. Granted his shot isn't going to go away completely, but as K has shown in the past, Dawkins shooting only games aren't going to get him a lot of minutes. I'm glad his back, to be honest, I'm a little shocked he decided to come back, and I hope it was the right call for him to do so.

.

What makes you think Dawkins gained a lot of weight?

Dawkins didn't practice, play or dress out with the team this season. But he did work out with a respected trainer, sat behind the bench at home (and some road) games and was very much around the program. I saw him up close any number of times and didn't notice any adverse weight gain.

I expect Dawkins to play a good deal this season and be very effective. Note that many players have set out a season recovering from an injury and returned in fine form. Trajan Langdon sat out the entire 1996 season with a knee injury and made first-team All-ACC in 1997. More than a few Mormons have gone two years on a mission without even touching a basketball and come back and played at a very high level.

gep
05-22-2013, 12:12 AM
Maybe Marshall will be just like Mason this year... Doubt it, but that would be nice. I hope he improves enough/stays healthy to the point where he can at least be a rotation player because his size and motor certainly aren't going to hurt.

I would take a healthy Zoubs for Marshall's "role". After all, with the wing/perimeter players, all Marshall has to do is guard the basket on defense, and rebound on offense. With his size and height, he shouldn't have to move around much to be effective. And always get that put-back, dunk, whatever. Maybe even alley-oop... who knows??? :cool: [I have been, and will always be, a Zoubs fan]

greybeard
05-22-2013, 01:27 AM
Marshall Plumlee. As he goes, Duke goes. Duke can and will win if Marshall is not made integral to Duke's offense, but will not reach its potential unless he is. In my view, Marshall's success and growth throughout the season will depend on one thing, and one thing only: how his teammates regard him. In that regard, actions talk.

Duvall
05-22-2013, 01:34 AM
Marshall Plumlee. As he goes, Duke goes. Duke can and will win if Marshall is not made integral to Duke's offense, but will not reach its potential unless he is.

Offense? Why Duke's offense?

Turtleboy
05-22-2013, 10:09 AM
Andre Dawkins- somebody commented earlier about Andre being in one of the four guard line-ups, and I just don't think Andre is going to play very much this year. I absolutely love the kid, he had an imperative role in getting us to the Final Four in 2010 and for that, forever grateful. However he did just completely take a year off from basketball. He was rarely around this year, he gained a lot of weight. Ten pounds, according to Dawkins. Whether that is a lot or not is up to the individual assessor, I suppose.

CDu
05-22-2013, 10:29 AM
Ten pounds, according to Dawkins. Whether that is a lot or not is up to the individual assessor, I suppose.

Note that it is also unclear how many of those 10 pounds are good weight (i.e., lean muscle mass) and how many are bad weight. I would imagine it is a little of both. Either way, with a summer of serious workouts (something I'm sure he will be doing), he could easily shed 10 lbs of bad weight. So even if all 10 lbs were bad weight, those pounds probably won't make a difference come time for the season.

Saratoga2
05-22-2013, 10:51 AM
Clearly there is no obvious favorite for the position at this time. Amile is 6'8" but has the length and althleticism to handle the job. He would need to gain weight and strength to do the job. I think we should look again in September to see if he has made progress along that line. Marshall is the obvious starting center, except he has had surgery and is well behind the curve on development so will probably only be able to play a minor role this fall. Josh has the bulk and experience, but he is short for the position, not quite althletic enough. His play while okay is not likely to improve enough to start. Jabari has some size and has obvious talent, but do we want him to be battling at center or in a position to play the 4 with more freedom. Alex is more of a 3/4. He is 6'8" and athletic but his defense last year didn't show him to be anywhere near Amile in ability in that regard. Semi's a new interest, but aat 6'6" he is unlikely to be an optimum solution.

So when all is said and done, I am hoping Amile can morph into a stronger player and be backed up by both Marshall and Josh.

OldPhiKap
05-22-2013, 10:57 AM
This thread makes me realize that point pressure and extended defense will be even more critical this year than usual.

And of course, sometimes the best defense is a good offense.

MChambers
05-22-2013, 11:05 AM
This thread makes me realize that point pressure and extended defense will be even more critical this year than usual.

And of course, sometimes the best defense is a good offense.
As Jim Sumner said in one of these threads, it would be nice to see the other team rattled by having to try to run a half court offense against Duke. This team has the potential to have a disruptive defense.

In all the hand wringing about who will play center, and comparisons to 2008, I think we're losing sight of the fact that this team will be good sized at all of the wing positions, except point. That will go a long way to dealing with rebounding issues.

Turtleboy
05-22-2013, 12:15 PM
Note that it is also unclear how many of those 10 pounds are good weight (i.e., lean muscle mass) and how many are bad weight. I would imagine it is a little of both. Either way, with a summer of serious workouts (something I'm sure he will be doing), he could easily shed 10 lbs of bad weight. So even if all 10 lbs were bad weight, those pounds probably won't make a difference come time for the season.
I suspect that at his young age and high level of athleticism he could drop ten pounds in a month or so easily. Maybe half that.

Listen to Quants
05-22-2013, 12:22 PM
As Jim Sumner said in one of these threads, it would be nice to see the other team rattled by having to try to run a half court offense against Duke. This team has the potential to have a disruptive defense.

In all the hand wringing about who will play center, and comparisons to 2008, I think we're losing sight of the fact that this team will be good sized at all of the wing positions, except point. That will go a long way to dealing with rebounding issues.

'fer sure.' When Duke has had the horses, K has used a lot of extended and full court defense. This year would seem a interesting time to return to that. The caveat being that all the mid-sized depth will have to actually *play* smart disruptive defense, not just run around. It could be great fun, and would tend to use the depth to advantage and cover a defensive weakness in the pivot.

Listen to Quants
05-22-2013, 12:32 PM
Yes, I would roll that into #1. If one agrees that Jabari is one of Duke's top 3 players (perhaps the best player), it would make more sense for Amile to guard the center in a Jabari/Amile frontcourt pairing. Jabari should only guard the center in a Jabari/Amile pairing if guarding centers won't wear him down over the course of the season.

It's cutthroat logic, I admit, but it's better for the team's 5th/6th best player to wear down over the course of the season rather than the team's #1, #2, or #3 player.

There is a widespread belief in the idea that players "wear down" over the course of a season. We all remember Singler's freshman season and that appeared to fit the model. As the saying goes though, the plural of anecdote is not data. Endurance athletes don't 'wear down' with lots and lots of training, they get stronger. I don't know of any good evidence that wear-down actually happens, just that some players have clusters of good play and clusters of poorer play, sometimes those clusters are in mid year, sometimes at end years sometimes at the start of the year. Does anybody know if a reasonable statistical analysis been done?

MCFinARL
05-22-2013, 12:48 PM
Note that it is also unclear how many of those 10 pounds are good weight (i.e., lean muscle mass) and how many are bad weight. I would imagine it is a little of both. Either way, with a summer of serious workouts (something I'm sure he will be doing), he could easily shed 10 lbs of bad weight. So even if all 10 lbs were bad weight, those pounds probably won't make a difference come time for the season.

I agree. I've probably lost ten pounds over the course of two or three months 7-8 times, and I'm relatively sedentary. So it should not be hard for an active, healthy 21-year-old who is training and playing basketball.

And, yes, the fact that I have done this 7-8 times does not mean that I weigh 70-80 pounds less than when I started; unfortunately, I gained it back 7-8 times as well (see above, "relatively sedentary").

CDu
05-22-2013, 01:00 PM
I agree. I've probably lost ten pounds over the course of two or three months 7-8 times, and I'm relatively sedentary. So it should not be hard for an active, healthy 21-year-old who is training and playing basketball.

And, yes, the fact that I have done this 7-8 times does not mean that I weigh 70-80 pounds less than when I started; unfortunately, I gained it back 7-8 times as well (see above, "relatively sedentary").

Yup. It is much harder to gain 10 lbs of good weight (lean mass) than it is to lose 10 lbs of bad weight. The former can be relatively easy to do in a matter of a summer. The latter would take 6-8 months to do. Gaining bad weight? That is as I know all to well, by far the easiest of the three.

greybeard
05-22-2013, 01:09 PM
Offense? Why Duke's offense?

Inside-out play with from a 7'1" player:

1. Makes him much more formidable on defense (you beat a man offensively, you and he know it)l you gain confidence, and off-the-ball shot blocking becomes stronger; and makes you a better off-the ball shot blocker who does not have to commit momentum "up", which is huge (I think that Marshall sees the game extremely well, has good feet and hands, and can be a real asset for 15 to 20 minutes that will change the way the game is played to the better for Duke);

2. Inside-out play clears the court for shooters and penetrators. I also think that Marshall will see how to move to open up space and could well be the best inside distributer Duke has (anybody remember Zoubek being stopped from passing out to a step-in three);

Yes, a fair amount of this is intuition off of what little we saw of Marshall on the court. That said, an effective 7'1" offensive threat used well can elevate another team at least a notch up. To me, that takes a very good Duke team into a different category.

CDu
05-22-2013, 01:38 PM
Inside-out play with from a 7'1" player:

1. Makes him much more formidable on defense (you beat a man offensively, you and he know it)l you gain confidence, and off-the-ball shot blocking becomes stronger; and makes you a better off-the ball shot blocker who does not have to commit momentum "up", which is huge (I think that Marshall sees the game extremely well, has good feet and hands, and can be a real asset for 15 to 20 minutes that will change the way the game is played to the better for Duke);

2. Inside-out play clears the court for shooters and penetrators. I also think that Marshall will see how to move to open up space and could well be the best inside distributer Duke has (anybody remember Zoubek being stopped from passing out to a step-in three);

Yes, a fair amount of this is intuition off of what little we saw of Marshall on the court. That said, an effective 7'1" offensive threat used well can elevate another team at least a notch up. To me, that takes a very good Duke team into a different category.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion of Marshall. Let's just say that I disagree with the vast majority of it in this case. I don't think he has good hands, I don't think he has good court vision, and I don't think he has good court awareness. Nor do I buy that you have to play inside-out offense in order to get good/better defense from your center. Tyson Chandler, for example, is widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA. The team runs virtually no offense through him. Joakim Noah is probably the best post defender in the NBA, and he would be so even if the Bulls never threw him the ball once. Dikembe Mutombo never needed to be involved in the offense, nor did Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace.

If you have a guy for whom you feel comfortable passing the ball to on the block, then by all means run some inside out. We did that quite well the last two years with Mason. And it worked with Shelden Williams and Boozer and Brand. But if your big man isn't up to the task (whether it be due to a lack of skill or lack of athleticism), it's not a good idea to play inside out. We tried it with Zoubek, and it just didn't work. So by Zoubek's senior year, we scrapped the idea and instead used him as (almost exclusively) a screener/rebounder.

Based on what I've seen of Marshall, I'm inclined to believe he is closer (at least right now) to Zoubek than he is to Mason. Maybe by his junior/senior year he'll be more ready offensively. But I don't think he'll be there next year. And as such, I think trying to forcefeed him offense might actually hurt his confidence (by reinforcing negative outcomes) more than help it. We want to put him in a situation where he is most likely to succeed in his role, like we did with Zoubek as a senior. I see no reason to try to force a square peg into a round hole.

jimsumner
05-22-2013, 01:48 PM
RE: fatigue.

My conversations with players and coaches over the years suggest that cumulative, end-of-the-season fatigue is more mental/emotional/psychological than physical.

There's a lot of pressure on these kids. A lot.

And it can add up.

CDu
05-22-2013, 01:53 PM
RE: fatigue.

My conversations with players and coaches over the years suggest that cumulative, end-of-the-season fatigue is more mental/emotional/psychological than physical.

There's a lot of pressure on these kids. A lot.

And it can add up.

I would agree wholeheartedly with that.

Kedsy
05-22-2013, 01:54 PM
Jabari has some size and has obvious talent, but do we want him to be battling at center or in a position to play the 4 with more freedom.

Freedom is a word people usually use with regard to offense. "Who plays center" in the context of this thread (and Duke's season) is really a question of defense. Jabari could battle centers on defense all day and still have plenty of freedom on offense.


There is a widespread belief in the idea that players "wear down" over the course of a season. We all remember Singler's freshman season and that appeared to fit the model. As the saying goes though, the plural of anecdote is not data. Endurance athletes don't 'wear down' with lots and lots of training, they get stronger. I don't know of any good evidence that wear-down actually happens, just that some players have clusters of good play and clusters of poorer play, sometimes those clusters are in mid year, sometimes at end years sometimes at the start of the year. Does anybody know if a reasonable statistical analysis been done?

While I generally scoff at the idea of 20 year old kids physically wearing down because they play a lot of minutes (though I agree with Jim Sumner's comments above, about emotional fatigue), and while I admit I have no legitimate data to support this, I think the Singler-wore-down meme makes some sense. As anybody who has done it can attest, guarding a much bigger/heavier player in the halfcourt -- pushing back and forth and jockeying for position -- takes a lot out of you. After just one game of doing this, your legs feel like lead. I can easily envision a player who has to do this day in and day out getting tired legs after awhile. Endurance athletes may get stronger, but don't weightlifters have to take time off between sessions?

CDu
05-22-2013, 02:03 PM
Freedom is a word people usually use with regard to offense. "Who plays center" in the context of this thread (and Duke's season) is really a question of defense. Jabari could battle centers on defense all day and still have plenty of freedom on offense.



While I generally scoff at the idea of 20 year old kids physically wearing down because they play a lot of minutes (though I agree with Jim Sumner's comments above, about emotional fatigue), and while I admit I have no legitimate data to support this, I think the Singler-wore-down meme makes some sense. As anybody who has done it can attest, guarding a much bigger/heavier player in the halfcourt -- pushing back and forth and jockeying for position -- takes a lot out of you. After just one game of doing this, your legs feel like lead. I can easily envision a player who has to do this day in and day out getting tired legs after awhile. Endurance athletes may get stronger, but don't weightlifters have to take time off between sessions?

I agree with pretty much all of this. But I do have a question for you. You've said that you want Jefferson on the floor more because you think it will help his development. You've also said that you'd rather him play C than Parker because you're worried about wearing Parker down. Why aren't you also worried about wearing Jefferson down? And why aren't you worried about the effects of said weardown (by playing out of position) on Jefferson's development?

Wouldn't it make more sense to play the bigger, stronger guy at C moreso than the skinnier guy (both from a development standpoint and an on-court performance standpoint)?

For the record, I'm waffling on what I think will happen, but I'm moving closer to the idea that we'll see Parker, Hairston, and Plumlee each log 10-12 mpg at C, with Jefferson getting the rest. And then at PF, Parker would see about half of the minutes, Jefferson 12-15 minutes, and a SF (Hood or Murphy?) seeing the rest. I don't want either Parker or Jefferson spending most of their time at C.

Kedsy
05-22-2013, 02:12 PM
I agree with pretty much all of this. But I do have a question for you. You've said that you want Jefferson on the floor more because you think it will help his development. You've also said that you'd rather him play C than Parker because you're worried about wearing Parker down. Why aren't you also worried about wearing Jefferson down? And why aren't you worried about the effects of said weardown (by playing out of position) on Jefferson's development?

Wouldn't it make more sense to play the bigger, stronger guy at C moreso than the skinnier guy (both from a development standpoint and an on-court performance standpoint)?

For the record, I'm waffling on what I think will happen, but I'm moving closer to the idea that we'll see Parker, Hairston, and Plumlee each log 10-12 mpg at C, with Jefferson getting the rest. And then at PF, Parker would see about half of the minutes, Jefferson 12-15 minutes, and a SF (Hood or Murphy?) seeing the rest. I don't want either Parker or Jefferson spending most of their time at C.

I guess for a lot of reasons. First, Jabari will be a freshman, and I think the emotional fatigue is worse for freshmen (hence the fabled "freshman wall"), so saddling him with the physical fatigue as well as the worse emotional fatigue might be more problematic. Second, on offense Amile doesn't seem to rely on his legs as much as his craftiness; a guy who shoots outside shots a lot and/or relies more on his leaping ability (Jabari on both counts; Amile not so much on either) would presumably lose more if his legs are tired. Third, I think the team will rely on Jabari for more things while we only really need Amile to play defense and rebound (the rest will be nice but more or less gravy). Finally, I think despite his slight frame, Amile is deceptively strong, so he may not be so far behind Jabari in that department (if at all). Also, I don't think the weardown would affect long-term development, just that it takes some spring out of your legs that you can't fully regain without a decent rest.

OldPhiKap
05-22-2013, 03:24 PM
I'm waiting for the suggestion that K should consider switching to a zone defense next year. It's not the off-season until someone throws that out there.

UrinalCake
05-22-2013, 04:08 PM
Let's start with the Jabari voters.
What is your reasonining? Is it one or more of the following?


I would go with
4.) He is bigger and/or stronger than anybody else on this list.

Plumlee is the best option IMO but we don't know if he'll be healthy and/or ready. I'm more concerned about healthy. I think a healthy, unskilled Plumlee is a better option that a more skilled, undersized Jefferson. I still think the notion of Amile defending the 5 is madness. And between Josh and Amile, when I consider the skill sets of the other 4 likely starters, I think Josh makes more sense overall.

Indoor66
05-22-2013, 04:19 PM
I would go with
4.) He is bigger and/or stronger than anybody else on this list.

Plumlee is the best option IMO but we don't know if he'll be healthy and/or ready. I'm more concerned about healthy. I think a healthy, unskilled Plumlee is a better option that a more skilled, undersized Jefferson. I still think the notion of Amile defending the 5 is madness. And between Josh and Amile, when I consider the skill sets of the other 4 likely starters, I think Josh makes more sense overall.

I agree with you. I f Marshall is healthy he is the best option. You can't teach 7' as some sage once pointed out.

CDu
05-22-2013, 04:19 PM
I would go with
4.) He is bigger and/or stronger than anybody else on this list.

Plumlee is the best option IMO but we don't know if he'll be healthy and/or ready. I'm more concerned about healthy. I think a healthy, unskilled Plumlee is a better option that a more skilled, undersized Jefferson. I still think the notion of Amile defending the 5 is madness. And between Josh and Amile, when I consider the skill sets of the other 4 likely starters, I think Josh makes more sense overall.

I tend to agree. I mean, Jefferson played PF and SF this past year. He played NO minutes at C. The team went to Kelly, Hairston, and Plumlee to back up Mason at C. I just don't see much reason to assume that he'll get strong enough to play C next year.

Parker is certainly bigger than Jefferson (he might even outweigh Hairston). And I'm pretty sure he's stronger too.

Frankly, I don't want to see either Parker or Jefferson at C next year. But I don't think Hairston and Plumlee are going to be able to give us 40 quality minutes at C. So the two are almost certainly going to have to share the PF/C duties together. And I'd guess that more often than not we'll see Parker guarding the 5 and Jefferson guarding the 4 in those situations.

I think the best case scenario is that Hairston and Plumlee are able to give 25-30 okay minutes at C. That would mean only 10-15 mpg for Parker and Jefferson at C, allowing both to spend most of their time at PF. Of course, that would require a HUGE jump in improvement from at least one of Hairston and Plumlee. But I think that's the dream scenario.

Des Esseintes
05-22-2013, 04:21 PM
Inside-out play with from a 7'1" player:

1. Makes him much more formidable on defense (you beat a man offensively, you and he know it)l you gain confidence, and off-the-ball shot blocking becomes stronger; and makes you a better off-the ball shot blocker who does not have to commit momentum "up", which is huge (I think that Marshall sees the game extremely well, has good feet and hands, and can be a real asset for 15 to 20 minutes that will change the way the game is played to the better for Duke);


That's how Brooke Lopez and Al Jefferson became such an elite defenders.

Turtleboy
05-22-2013, 05:00 PM
RE: fatigue.

My conversations with players and coaches over the years suggest that cumulative, end-of-the-season fatigue is more mental/emotional/psychological than physical.

There's a lot of pressure on these kids. A lot.

And it can add up.So the question becomes does less playing time create less emotional fatigue? If playing time is spread around is the cumulative burden of pressure spread around as well?

CLW
05-22-2013, 06:00 PM
I'm waiting for the suggestion that K should consider switching to a zone defense next year. It's not the off-season until someone throws that out there.

I wouldn't go zone but thoughts of a "40 minutes of hell" type defense might be an option with as many athletes we have especially if its Parker or Jefferson at the 5 on D.

Listen to Quants
05-22-2013, 06:02 PM
<snip>


While I generally scoff at the idea of 20 year old kids physically wearing down because they play a lot of minutes (though I agree with Jim Sumner's comments above, about emotional fatigue), and while I admit I have no legitimate data to support this, I think the Singler-wore-down meme makes some sense. As anybody who has done it can attest, guarding a much bigger/heavier player in the halfcourt -- pushing back and forth and jockeying for position -- takes a lot out of you. After just one game of doing this, your legs feel like lead. I can easily envision a player who has to do this day in and day out getting tired legs after awhile. Endurance athletes may get stronger, but don't weightlifters have to take time off between sessions?

Indeed, lifters do/should do hard-easy as do/should endurance athletes and mix up cycles as well. Two to four sessions a week depending upon recovery rates is often recommended. That fits well enough with a basketball schedule. And "leaden" legs is a *good* sign :) it hints that you got the workout.

Listen to Quants
05-22-2013, 06:08 PM
RE: fatigue.

My conversations with players and coaches over the years suggest that cumulative, end-of-the-season fatigue is more mental/emotional/psychological than physical.

There's a lot of pressure on these kids. A lot.

And it can add up.

Thanks. I am delighted to move the conversation of "wearing out" from the general, including the seemingly unlikely wear-out-from-intermittent-exercise physiology to the plausible wearing out from emotional ... stuff.

I'd have a question then. Jim, does the fatigue seem to shed with tournament time? I'd think then passion/desire would re-ignite if it had fallen, but is the fatigue something else?

wilko
05-22-2013, 08:17 PM
Nobody is really talking about Murphy right now. Thats a shame. It would be an immediate way to contribute if hes added more size to his frame. With the depth 0f 2-4 I think he could add some benefit if hes willing to bang.

I dont know that he'll be STARTING as center - but I'd be surprised if he didnt have a chance to earn some PT there as part of the post-by-committee.

I hope he eats and digests several copies of Jays book and follows the Bilas strength regime in the off-season to add muscle to the committee.

CDu
05-22-2013, 08:49 PM
Nobody is really talking about Murphy right now. Thats a shame. It would be an immediate way to contribute if hes added more size to his frame. With the depth 0f 2-4 I think he could add some benefit if hes willing to bang.

I dont know that he'll be STARTING as center - but I'd be surprised if he didnt have a chance to earn some PT there as part of the post-by-committee.

I hope he eats and digests several copies of Jays book and follows the Bilas strength regime in the off-season to add muscle to the committee.

Murphy is an interesting case. He has probably 10-15 lbs on Jefferson, and playing C would be a huge boon for his offensive game (he is a bit marginal when asked to score against SG or SF).

That being said, he doesn't seem to have the length that Jefferson and Parker have. He doesn't have the bulk that Hairston has. And he doesn't have Plumlee's height.

If he somehow came in at 6'8" 235 though? I think he would need to at least be in the discussion.

greybeard
05-23-2013, 01:09 AM
You are certainly entitled to your opinion of Marshall. Let's just say that I disagree with the vast majority of it in this case. I don't think he has good hands, I don't think he has good court vision, and I don't think he has good court awareness. Nor do I buy that you have to play inside-out offense in order to get good/better defense from your center. Tyson Chandler, for example, is widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA. The team runs virtually no offense through him. Joakim Noah is probably the best post defender in the NBA, and he would be so even if the Bulls never threw him the ball once. Dikembe Mutombo never needed to be involved in the offense, nor did Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace.

If you have a guy for whom you feel comfortable passing the ball to on the block, then by all means run some inside out. We did that quite well the last two years with Mason. And it worked with Shelden Williams and Boozer and Brand. But if your big man isn't up to the task (whether it be due to a lack of skill or lack of athleticism), it's not a good idea to play inside out. We tried it with Zoubek, and it just didn't work. So by Zoubek's senior year, we scrapped the idea and instead used him as (almost exclusively) a screener/rebounder.

Based on what I've seen of Marshall, I'm inclined to believe he is closer (at least right now) to Zoubek than he is to Mason. Maybe by his junior/senior year he'll be more ready offensively. But I don't think he'll be there next year. And as such, I think trying to forcefeed him offense might actually hurt his confidence (by reinforcing negative outcomes) more than help it. We want to put him in a situation where he is most likely to succeed in his role, like we did with Zoubek as a senior. I see no reason to try to force a square peg into a round hole.

Zeller, Foote, Len to name a few. Noah is among the best big man passers in the league, Chandler most definitely gets to hurt his opposing big in the offensive game even though everything is run by and for what's his name. Georgetown the season before last had a kid playing the high post, Sims is his name, who seemingly couldn't get arrested his first three years at Georgetown, soft, weak, bad hands and feet they said. The guy was the pivot of a very potent offense, played great.

I've had this discussion many times about set-and-shield inside players such as Duke historically has played with, and tall, 7 footers who are lanky and show much more than they otherwise would if the team they were on took advantage of their strengths instead of insisting that they play a game that does not suit them.

Zoubek arrived at Duke with a tremendous facility for setting up catches with advantage, his defender trailing by a step, but never got the ball on the move. Never. As for this business about bad hands, footwork, coordination and what not, Zoubek was not a hold and shield inside player. That is the game he was forced to play. His senior year, however, towards the end, K often ran a few plays featuring Zoubek on the move and he was deadly. Take a look at the film of the Butler game, the first couple of minutes. Had Z's teammates his freshman year given him the ball when he moved to space with advantage as soon as the passing lane opened (Zoubek was great at seeing/creating them), his career at Duke might have been very different. My opinion but the evidence I believe bares that out.

Marshall's ability to contribute on offense depends in large part on how committed the rest of the team is to facilitating and supporting and respecting what he does well. There is no way for a player to grow and succeed without that respect and commitment. There are choices that a coach makes but there is the body of work day-in-and-day-out that informs those decisions. If past is prologue, Marshall may well be relegated to what you see. Duke, I believe, will be the worse for it.

CDu
05-23-2013, 09:08 AM
Zeller, Foote, Len to name a few. Noah is among the best big man passers in the league, Chandler most definitely gets to hurt his opposing big in the offensive game even though everything is run by and for what's his name. Georgetown the season before last had a kid playing the high post, Sims is his name, who seemingly couldn't get arrested his first three years at Georgetown, soft, weak, bad hands and feet they said. The guy was the pivot of a very potent offense, played great.

Zeller, Foote, and Len were not made better defenders by getting fed the ball on offense. Zeller and Foote were poor defenders, and Len was just okay. Chandler has next to no offensive involvement other than the occasional lob pass at the rim. To suggest that as evidence that playing inside out improves defense is just not at all logically connected. Noah is a great defender first and foremost. He happens to also be a terrific passer. But make no mistake, his occasionally getting the ball on offense does not affect his defense in any way. And Sims was a very effective post player on offense. He was never much of a defensive presence. So, like Zeller, Foote, and Len, I fail to see how these examples support your argument that "playing inside out helps a big on defense."


Marshall's ability to contribute on offense depends in large part on how committed the rest of the team is to facilitating and supporting and respecting what he does well. There is no way for a player to grow and succeed without that respect and commitment. There are choices that a coach makes but there is the body of work day-in-and-day-out that informs those decisions. If past is prologue, Marshall may well be relegated to what you see. Duke, I believe, will be the worse for it.

Marshall's ability to contribute on offense depends in large part on how good the rest of the team is at creating easy scoring opportunities for him. He simply doesn't have the skill set to be the focal point of an "inside out" game. I know that you are a huge fan of using the post to facilitate the offense. But that post player has to have the skills to actually do it. And nothing that Marshall has shown to this point suggests that he has that skill yet.

I think Duke will be much better off NOT playing inside out next year (at least not with Marshall). It doesn't suit his skills at this time, and thus would only hurt the offense. And struggling offensively might actually hurt Marshall's confidence on both ends of the floor, which then hurts the defense.

When Marshall is in the game, we should find the role that maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. Like they did with Zoubek (eventually), I trust that Coach K will figure it out. And I'm quite sure that it will not involve playing an inside-out game with Marshall.

lotusland
05-23-2013, 10:31 AM
Marshall will get the most starts as long as he is healthy enough to play and Josh will be the first sub. I might have even picked Josh to start being a senior except no one wants to see Josh try to win the tip on a jump ball. Not that the jump-ball matters but earth-bound 6'7 just isn't a fair fight. I really don't see Amile at 5 at all for some reason. To me he loses a lot of his advantage offensivley going up against a true center. Sure he has quick hands, great instincts and some nifty moves around the basket but I like his game much more against the oppposing teams 4 than 5. I'd rather have a guy like Parker who could pull the center out of the lane on offense. Off course is Parker and Amile are playing together the opposing center probaly guards Amile. So if MP3 or Josh are not in I'd rather see Alex at 5 with Parker at 4. I think Alex may be as affective guarding their center as Amile and who does the opposing center guard in that case?

jimsumner
05-23-2013, 10:48 AM
There's no rule that says the starting center has to be in the jump circle. Robert Brickey and Gerald Henderson have both jumped center for Duke. No reason Parker or Hood couldn't. Hood has serious hops.

There are reasons not to start Hairston. The center jump doesn't seem to be one of them.

CDu
05-23-2013, 10:55 AM
Marshall will get the most starts as long as he is healthy enough to play and Josh will be the first sub. I might have even picked Josh to start being a senior except no one wants to see Josh try to win the tip on a jump ball. Not that the jump-ball matters but earth-bound 6'7 just isn't a fair fight. I really don't see Amile at 5 at all for some reason. To me he loses a lot of his advantage offensivley going up against a true center. Sure he has quick hands, great instincts and some nifty moves around the basket but I like his game much more against the oppposing teams 4 than 5. I'd rather have a guy like Parker who could pull the center out of the lane on offense. Off course is Parker and Amile are playing together the opposing center probaly guards Amile. So if MP3 or Josh are not in I'd rather see Alex at 5 with Parker at 4. I think Alex may be as affective guarding their center as Amile and who does the opposing center guard in that case?

Murphy is a name that I honestly hadn't really considered before the last couple of days. Mainly because I'm just not sure if he'd be big enough, and I'm not sure if he's interior-oriented enough. I mean, he is currently listed at 6'8" (same as Jefferson) and 220 (25 lbs over Jefferson's listed weight). He appears to be a better leaper than Jefferson, but he doesn't appear to have Jefferson's arm length, nor does he have Jefferson's rebound rate. I'm also not entirely convinced he's really 6'8", but that's hard to know one way or the other from where I sit.

If he could gain 10-15 lbs and be 6'8" 235, then I think he'd have the physical strength to do an okay job. He'd certainly have more mobility and athleticism than Hairston, and most likely more strength and body mass than Jefferson. And as you note, his ballhandling would create problems for opposing bigs in a way that Jefferson can't duplicate. The only question is whether he would have the mindset to get after it on the glass. That hasn't been a strength of his so far, so it's a bit of a concern. As is the question of whether or not he will actually put on that additional weight.

lotusland
05-23-2013, 11:26 AM
There's no rule that says the starting center has to be in the jump circle. Robert Brickey and Gerald Henderson have both jumped center for Duke. No reason Parker or Hood couldn't. Hood has serious hops.

There are reasons not to start Hairston. The center jump doesn't seem to be one of them.

Well that is true. Marshall is a pretty good leaper for a 7-footer so he'd be our best bet to win a jump ball though. Not that it matters except I hate to "lose" anything. I don't see anyone else who has Marshall's potential to rebound and defend the post so, as long as he is healthy enough to play, I think he starts. Both he and Josh are likely to pick up a lot of fouls so we will need at least a 3rd option. I'm going to go ahead and nickname, Tyler, Josh and MP3 the Bruise Brothers:)

gumbomoop
05-23-2013, 12:29 PM
Nobody is really talking about Murphy right now. Thats a shame. It would be an immediate way to contribute if hes added more size to his frame. With the depth 0f 2-4 I think he could add some benefit if hes willing to bang.

I dont know that he'll be STARTING as center - but I'd be surprised if he didnt have a chance to earn some PT there as part of the post-by-committee.

A minor correction, by way of a friendly amendment: Almost A. Nobody has actually, really, talked about Murphy. Almost was almost enthusiastic on the subject. Or desperate.


... seems our 5 will be "by committee." Maybe Jabari will be on that committee, but I'm guessing only rarely. Looks like it's Amile, Josh, and some Marshall.

Why not include Alex Murphy on that committee? That guy has some talent around the rim, is a secret leaper [remember that block v, uh, I can't remember, but I remember it.....], and must outweigh Amile by 10 pounds already. Alex is likely to be buried behind at least 3 other wings: Rasheed, Rodney, and Andre.

Rather than "sacrifice" Jabari by playing him at the 5-D, why not throw Alex into the competition for minutes at the 4/5, on both O and D?

What if Alex comes in at a muscled 225-230?

A cousin, Virtually A. Nobody, chimed in. Not only that, but Virtually started a whole new thread on this devilish problem, even at the risk of making trouble.


I agree. I think Alex will be in the 4/5 mix now at around 6'8"/230 (up from last season's 220) and he may actually be the biggest beneficiary minutes-wise of missing out on Black.

And then Nobody Knows My Name, waxing metaphorical, cited some history that seems relevant. Even if Nobody Knows My Name is feeling sorry for himself, he's not irrational.


... why not throw Murphy against the wall and see if he sticks? Metaphorically, of course. He's 6-8, 220, that's as big as Lance Thomas when he played the 5and in the Kyle Singler, circa 2008 neighborhood. I'm not talking 30 mpg, just part of a rotation. In the last decade we've seen Reggie Love and David McClure garner some PT at the 5 and we all remember John Smith, Robert Brickey, Chris Carrawell giving it a go. It's not like it's unprecedented. Or irrational.

And now, Nobody's Fool has had, not exactly an epiphany, but something approaching a sober second thought.


Murphy is a name that I honestly hadn't really considered before the last couple of days. Mainly because I'm just not sure if he'd be big enough, and I'm not sure if he's interior-oriented enough. I mean, he is currently listed at 6'8" (same as Jefferson) and 220 (25 lbs over Jefferson's listed weight). He appears to be a better leaper than Jefferson, but he doesn't appear to have Jefferson's arm length, nor does he have Jefferson's rebound rate. I'm also not entirely convinced he's really 6'8", but that's hard to know one way or the other from where I sit.

If he could gain 10-15 lbs and be 6'8" 235, then I think he'd have the physical strength to do an okay job.... The only question is whether he would have the mindset to get after it on the glass. That hasn't been a strength of his so far, so it's a bit of a concern. As is the question of whether or not he will actually put on that additional weight.

All these Nobodies are, it seems clear, out on a limb with this Alex stuff. It's a long shot. Truth is, Alex would probably have a better shot at some minutes on the interior if K were a faithful reader of EK. But unlike Roy - whose season was saved last year by all the advice he got over here re small ball - K seems to think, as he said to Greg Doyel, "Nobody cares."

scottdude8
05-23-2013, 12:31 PM
The answer to this question really depends on if we mean for Game 1 or in the NCCA Tourney. For Game 1 I think it'll be Amile since he has the best combination of experience and talent due to Ryan's injury last year. But by the end of the year I'd be SHOCKED if its not Marshall considering how in love with him the coaching staff was before his injury last year. People harp on his offensive issues last year, but with our team any points our center scores will be a bonus (much like how we viewed Zoubek/Thomas in 2010). With a month or two of development from the bench, Marshall should be the guy who can be a rim-protector and get us 10 rebounds a game, while setting solid screens. That is all we need.

wilko
05-23-2013, 12:53 PM
A minor correction, by way of a friendly amendment: Almost A. Nobody has actually, really, talked about Murphy. Almost was almost enthusiastic on the subject. Or desperate.

Cool with a minor change if its meaningful to you.
But I didn't throw Alex out there as a desperation move... We have waves of pressure to apply in positions 2-thru-4. Alex could be part of those waves certainly - or he could carve out a nice niche by embracing some some Post duties and shoring up where we are admittedly thin.

Kedsy
05-23-2013, 01:11 PM
The answer to this question really depends on if we mean for Game 1 or in the NCCA Tourney. For Game 1 I think it'll be Amile since he has the best combination of experience and talent due to Ryan's injury last year. But by the end of the year I'd be SHOCKED if its not Marshall considering how in love with him the coaching staff was before his injury last year. People harp on his offensive issues last year, but with our team any points our center scores will be a bonus (much like how we viewed Zoubek/Thomas in 2010). With a month or two of development from the bench, Marshall should be the guy who can be a rim-protector and get us 10 rebounds a game, while setting solid screens. That is all we need.

I don't think most of the doubters' concerns have anything to do with Marshall's offense. I think most posters here agree that all we need from our center this year is rebounding and strong post defense.

What the doubters are saying is during his brief time on the court last season, Marshall's positioning was off on both sides of the floor. He was second or two slow everywhere he went (and I don't mean footspeed; he started late). Was that a product of his injury, of rust, of being too amped up because he wasn't on the floor very much, of confidence? Who can say? But most players with that sort of problem solve it during their off-season development, not in the middle of a season. Marshall isn't really going to get any off-season development this year, which is why I personally doubt he'll be starting for us in the NCAAT.

Also, many have said this, but the "love" the coaching staff showed him should be taken with a grain of salt. They gave similar love to Alex two seasons in a row. Despite all the "sixth best player" talk, Marshall was never ahead of Tyler in the rotation and even if he'd been healthy his projected playing time ceiling probably would have been to battle with Amile and Josh for a less-than-full-share of the 15 or so "third big" minutes.

gumbomoop
05-23-2013, 03:41 PM
I didn't throw Alex out there as a desperation move... We have waves of pressure to apply in positions 2-thru-4. Alex could be part of those waves certainly - or he could carve out a nice niche by embracing some some Post duties and shoring up where we are admittedly thin.

No, the "desperate" referred to Almost A. Nobody, me. My fault for lack of clarity. Even then, I'm not seriously desperate about our 5-D situation. More cautiously optimistic. And as the several tag quotes were intended to suggest, the very idea of Alex grabbing some PT at the 5, or at least 4/5, is creeping into the conversation.

But I'm guessing that all of us who have raised that possibility would admit that it's still a bit of a long shot. The points we're all raising - including you - are:

There's no obvious answer to the 5-question
Alex has some heretofore untapped, or inconsistently displayed, talent
But he's probably buried behind Rodney, Rasheed, and Andre on the wing depth chart
So maybe he'll emerge as part of the 5-committee [only for 2013-'14, as he's likely to return to the 3/stretch 4 spot in 2014-'15]
Especially if he weighs in around 230 this Fall
Still a long shot; we hope he gets a few minutes, anyway, at the 5-D
Go Alex!

CDu
05-23-2013, 03:44 PM
No, the "desperate" referred to Almost A. Nobody, me. My fault for lack of clarity. Even then, I'm not seriously desperate about our 5-D situation. More cautiously optimistic. And as the several tag quotes were intended to suggest, the very idea of Alex grabbing some PT at the 5, or at least 4/5, is creeping into the conversation.

But I'm guessing that all of us who have raised that possibility would admit that it's still a bit of a long shot. The points we're all raising - including you - are:

There's no obvious answer to the 5-question
Alex has some heretofore untapped, or inconsistently displayed, talent
But he's probably buried behind Rodney, Rasheed, and Andre on the wing depth chart
So maybe he'll emerge as part of the 5-committee [only for 2013-'14, as he's likely to return to the 3/stretch 4 spot in 2014-'15]
Especially if he weighs in around 230 this Fall
Still a long shot; we hope he gets a few minutes, anyway, at the 5-D
Go Alex!


Darn you and your clever naming convention. And for name me your Fool. :)

greybeard
05-24-2013, 03:02 AM
Zeller, Foote, and Len were not made better defenders by getting fed the ball on offense. Zeller and Foote were poor defenders, and Len was just okay. Chandler has next to no offensive involvement other than the occasional lob pass at the rim. To suggest that as evidence that playing inside out improves defense is just not at all logically connected. Noah is a great defender first and foremost. He happens to also be a terrific passer. But make no mistake, his occasionally getting the ball on offense does not affect his defense in any way. And Sims was a very effective post player on offense. He was never much of a defensive presence. So, like Zeller, Foote, and Len, I fail to see how these examples support your argument that "playing inside out helps a big on defense."



Marshall's ability to contribute on offense depends in large part on how good the rest of the team is at creating easy scoring opportunities for him. He simply doesn't have the skill set to be the focal point of an "inside out" game. I know that you are a huge fan of using the post to facilitate the offense. But that post player has to have the skills to actually do it. And nothing that Marshall has shown to this point suggests that he has that skill yet.

I think Duke will be much better off NOT playing inside out next year (at least not with Marshall). It doesn't suit his skills at this time, and thus would only hurt the offense. And struggling offensively might actually hurt Marshall's confidence on both ends of the floor, which then hurts the defense.

When Marshall is in the game, we should find the role that maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. Like they did with Zoubek (eventually), I trust that Coach K will figure it out. And I'm quite sure that it will not involve playing an inside-out game with Marshall.

Whatever. Many experts believe that, unless you hurt the other big on offense, you get eaten on defense. This is not an original thought.

The game was designed to be played inside out and that is the way it is best played. I do not think that you will find an expert who disagrees.

You have seen Marshall when he was recovering from a broken foot, so I do not think you have seen anywhere near his best. We'll just have to wait and see about the hands, footwork, and understanding of/vision for the game, in particular, the passing game plays out.

Len, Foote, and Zeller were very good shot blockers, off the ball and on it, and defended inside play quite effectively. Certainly, no one from Duke hurt those guys that I can remember. Len, I believe, got the better of Mason in one of the games last season.

Most every team looks to establish inside out play. Duke ALWAYS has. My view is that it is best done through pass penetration to a big, who then looks out at the court with defenders looking away from him. Duke has rarely done that.

Duke will not win without an inside out game next year. I doubt that that game will be due to getting it inside early and often to Marshall or anyone else. Inside out play is likely to be created off dribble penetration. K is extraordinary at coming up with offenses that have wing players and guards getting inside the defense with the purpose of kicking it out unless there is a straight shot to the rim. You are likely to see some version of that this year. I think it a shame.

77devil
05-24-2013, 08:47 AM
You have seen Marshall when he was recovering from a broken foot, so I do not think you have seen anywhere near his best. We'll just have to wait and see about the hands, footwork, and understanding of/vision for the game, in particular, the passing game plays out.

You seem to be discounting that MP III had another foot surgery and has lost another off season to develop. Whether or not he has the hands, footwork, and vision to be effective as you suggest is a question that will not be answered next season.

BismarckDuke
05-24-2013, 09:14 AM
You seem to be discounting that MP III had another foot surgery and has lost another off season to develop. Whether or not he has the hands, footwork, and vision to be effective as you suggest is a question that will not be answered next season.

Well, as having worked with a player who had a broken foot, the hands and vision can be worked on, easily. We had the player sit is a wheel chair and participate in some passing drills. Actually, I really think this helped the whole team, they got better with their pin point passes. The player in the wheel chair actually had to learn to be more attentive, he learned to be more creative with his hands also. As for conditioning, he did a lot of work in the pool, used a floater, running a lot in the water. As for the footwork, if he had footwork before he'll have it again. The strength is what keeps him for reacting quick enough.

The biggest thing he is missing out on is the speed of the game. Just because a guy reacts late to something doesn't mean he is slow, it might just be because he isn't processing the game fast enough which causes him to be a step behind.

CDu
05-24-2013, 11:13 AM
Whatever. Many experts believe that, unless you hurt the other big on offense, you get eaten on defense. This is not an original thought.

I highly doubt this statement is correct. Regardless, I'm quite certain that many other experts believe that half-court defense is in no way affected by half-court offense.


The game was designed to be played inside out and that is the way it is best played. I do not think that you will find an expert who disagrees.

No, the game was designed to find ways to get the ball in the basket. Playing inside-out is just one way that the game can be played. There are many different ways to play the game. The "right" way to play is the way that best suits your team's strengths. For some teams, that's an inside-out game. For others, it's not.


You have seen Marshall when he was recovering from a broken foot, so I do not think you have seen anywhere near his best. We'll just have to wait and see about the hands, footwork, and understanding of/vision for the game, in particular, the passing game plays out.

I agree that we have seen nothing yet from Plumlee, and that could quite possibly be all due to his foot injury. My disagreement with your post was with your assessment of Marshall's game. Quotes like "I think that Marshall sees the game extremely well, has good feet and hands, and can be a real asset for 15 to 20 minutes that will change the way the game is played to the better for Duke," and "I also think that Marshall will see how to move to open up space and could well be the best inside distributer Duke has," are simply not supported in any way by anything we've seen from Marshall.

You can hope that Marshall develops (or has) those skills. But to suggest that the offense be predicated on inside-out play based on a completely-unsupported hope? Seems like bad reasoning to me.


Len, Foote, and Zeller were very good shot blockers, off the ball and on it, and defended inside play quite effectively. Certainly, no one from Duke hurt those guys that I can remember. Len, I believe, got the better of Mason in one of the games last season.

And as I said before, those guys weren't made any better defensively by getting touches on offense.


Most every team looks to establish inside out play. Duke ALWAYS has. My view is that it is best done through pass penetration to a big, who then looks out at the court with defenders looking away from him. Duke has rarely done that.

No. Duke has very rarely looked to establish inside out play. They did so this year. They did so in Shelden's junior and senior years. They did so with Brand and Boozer. They did so with Laettner. In other words, when we've had a capable post player, we've run a decent amount of inside-out stuff. But we have quite frequently not had a great post player. And when we haven't had a great post player, we've ALWAYS played outside in.


Duke will not win without an inside out game next year. I doubt that that game will be due to getting it inside early and often to Marshall or anyone else.

Duke won in 2010 without an inside-out game.


Inside out play is likely to be created off dribble penetration. K is extraordinary at coming up with offenses that have wing players and guards getting inside the defense with the purpose of kicking it out unless there is a straight shot to the rim. You are likely to see some version of that this year. I think it a shame.

What you have just described is, in no way, shape or form, inside-out play. You are correct that this has been a staple of Duke's game since the beginning of Coach K's time at Duke. And it will almost certainly be the staple of Duke's play next year, because we do not appear to have any bigs suited to run an inside-out game. But it is not inside-out play. That's outside-in (and then possibly back out) play.

And I'm not sure why you think that's a shame. It's what we're best suited to do. You don't try to force a square peg in a round hole. You play to the strengths of your team. And one of the absolute best traits of Coach K as a coach is his ability to identify the strengths of the team and construct an offense around those strengths. And our strengths next year are clearly our perimeter players.

CLW
05-30-2013, 07:47 AM
Looks like Amile is already up to 214 and the staff wants him at 220.

http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/x1592164062/Dukes-Jefferson-eating-up-to-prep-for-post-duty

lotusland
05-30-2013, 12:43 PM
Looks like Amile is already up to 214 and the staff wants him at 220.

http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/x1592164062/Dukes-Jefferson-eating-up-to-prep-for-post-duty

I voted for Marshall and said earlier that if he is healthy enough to play he will start. I don't think anything that K said necessarily nullifies that possibility but after reading the tea leaves I'm less sure now. Marshall is missing a lot of summer work-out time and if he misses practice or gamed early in the season it is going to be hard for him to be starter or play starter minutes when he returns. If he can play he'll get minutes just because he is our only true center but it is going to be hard for him to crack the rotation if he comes back just before or after conference play begins. Here's hoping he's ready to go full speed before practice begins and starts off strong.

Greg_Newton
05-30-2013, 11:35 PM
Have to take issue with the front page saying Jefferson has gained 25 pounds since his playing weight last season. He said he was at 208 at the beginning of the season, and a recent Fox article (http://www.foxsportscarolinas.com/collegebasketball/acc-conference/story/Duke-notes-Kelly-to-wed-Jefferson-carbin?blockID=906703&feedID=3737)says "That, combined with his work in the weight room, has him up five pounds to 214." If he can gain 12-15 pounds of good weight total to get to 220, I'd take it.

That said, 25 pounds in two months would be nice... he'd be on track to be 6'9 280 by November. :p

Buckeye Devil
05-31-2013, 07:40 AM
I wanted to vote for Jefferson and almost did. But for some reason he reminds me of Antonio Lang.

Murphy was interesting but I haven't seen anything from him that would make me think "center." I voted for MP3 simply because of his size.

MCFinARL
05-31-2013, 10:22 PM
Have to take issue with the front page saying Jefferson has gained 25 pounds since his playing weight last season. He said he was at 208 at the beginning of the season, and a recent Fox article (http://www.foxsportscarolinas.com/collegebasketball/acc-conference/story/Duke-notes-Kelly-to-wed-Jefferson-carbin?blockID=906703&feedID=3737)says "That, combined with his work in the weight room, has him up five pounds to 214." If he can gain 12-15 pounds of good weight total to get to 220, I'd take it.

That said, 25 pounds in two months would be nice... he'd be on track to be 6'9 280 by November. :p

Smiley face notwithstanding, that [6'9" 280] doesn't sound so nice to me--don't think Jefferson could possibly gain that much "good" weight; he'd be slower (maybe close to immobile) with less endurance.

CLW
07-03-2013, 02:02 PM
Updated "official" height/weights of possible Starting Center candidates:

Jefferson 6'9" 210 lbs
Hairston 6'8" 235 lbs
Murphy 6'9" 230 lbs
Parker 6'8" 235 lbs
Plumlee 7'0" 260 lbs
Ojeleye 6'7" 230 lbs

http://www.goduke.com/fls/4200/web-docs/2013-14_MBB_Roster.pdf


Looks to me that other than Plumlee its a whole lot of interchangeable parts with different strengths/weaknesses for each player.

mattman91
07-03-2013, 02:07 PM
Updated "official" height/weights of possible Starting Center candidates:

Jefferson 6'9" 210 lbs
Hairston 6'8" 235 lbs
Murphy 6'9" 230 lbs
Parker 6'8" 235 lbs
Plumlee 7'0" 260 lbs
Ojeleye 6'7" 230 lbs

http://www.goduke.com/fls/4200/web-docs/2013-14_MBB_Roster.pdf


Looks to me that other than Plumlee its a whole lot of interchangeable parts with different strengths/weaknesses for each player.

Nick Pagliuca G 6-3 175 FR-HS Weston, Mass. (Milton Academy)......... another Pagliuca! :cool:

CDu
07-03-2013, 02:23 PM
Updated "official" height/weights of possible Starting Center candidates:

Jefferson 6'9" 210 lbs
Hairston 6'8" 235 lbs
Murphy 6'9" 230 lbs
Parker 6'8" 235 lbs
Plumlee 7'0" 260 lbs
Ojeleye 6'7" 230 lbs

http://www.goduke.com/fls/4200/web-docs/2013-14_MBB_Roster.pdf


Looks to me that other than Plumlee its a whole lot of interchangeable parts with different strengths/weaknesses for each player.

There are some very interesting numbers in this list. I would not have expected Murphy to be the second-tallest guy on the team...

gumbomoop
07-03-2013, 02:55 PM
There are some very interesting numbers in this list. I would not have expected Murphy to be the second-tallest guy on the team...

I continue to believe, or hallucinate that, Murphy should play inside [4/5] in 2013-'14. I'm sure he sees his future as a 3, and at the beginning of both the 2011-'12 and 2012-'13 seasons that's where he seemed destined to play, possibly even start. Didn't work out that way so far, and for upcoming season he seems likely to be behind at least 3, possibly 4, wings: Rasheed, Rodney, Andre, possibly Matt [a dead-eye shooter in HS, whereas Alex has not shown dead-eye, yet].

Save for Jabari, however, the interior minutes are more up for grabs, especially with Marshall's uncertain recuperation timeline. Seems to me Alex might get some solid minutes at 4/5, at least pre-conference, during which he could state his case, if he has one. So far, he's shown better on O closer to the basket than out beyond 3-line, cutting for passes and layups. He's got hops, enough length and weight to rebound, as these numbers attest.

It just looks - by which I guess I mean, from these numbers and from my intuition - that he's likely to be buried as a wing, but could compete as a stretch 4, even stretch 5.

UrinalCake
07-03-2013, 03:07 PM
Marshall at 260 sounds high - has he put on weight? And is it good weight? I don't remember what he was listed at last year but Mason was around 235 and that was with three more years of strength training/conditioning. My skeptical side worries that Marshall's conditioning has suffered due to his latest surgery.

And yeah, I could definitely see Alex playing some stretch-4, reprising Ryan's role.

CDu
07-03-2013, 03:31 PM
I continue to believe, or hallucinate that, Murphy should play inside [4/5] in 2013-'14. I'm sure he sees his future as a 3, and at the beginning of both the 2011-'12 and 2012-'13 seasons that's where he seemed destined to play, possibly even start. Didn't work out that way so far, and for upcoming season he seems likely to be behind at least 3, possibly 4, wings: Rasheed, Rodney, Andre, possibly Matt [a dead-eye shooter in HS, whereas Alex has not shown dead-eye, yet].

Save for Jabari, however, the interior minutes are more up for grabs, especially with Marshall's uncertain recuperation timeline. Seems to me Alex might get some solid minutes at 4/5, at least pre-conference, during which he could state his case, if he has one. So far, he's shown better on O closer to the basket than out beyond 3-line, cutting for passes and layups. He's got hops, enough length and weight to rebound, as these numbers attest.

It just looks - by which I guess I mean, from these numbers and from my intuition - that he's likely to be buried as a wing, but could compete as a stretch 4, even stretch 5.


Marshall at 260 sounds high - has he put on weight? And is it good weight? I don't remember what he was listed at last year but Mason was around 235 and that was with three more years of strength training/conditioning. My skeptical side worries that Marshall's conditioning has suffered due to his latest surgery.

And yeah, I could definitely see Alex playing some stretch-4, reprising Ryan's role.

I'm growing a bit into the idea of Murphy as an option at the 5. If his height and weight are accurate (and who knows if they are), he's got the size and athleticism to do about as well there as Hairston or Parker do. He doesn't have Jefferson's length, but he appears to be a better leaper and would have (apparently) 20 lbs on Jefferson too.

As for Plumlee, I'm guessing that he has put on weight since his foot surgery. Considering the difficulty in getting in good conditioning work, my guess is that it hasn't been all good weight. Of course, even then, I'd be shocked if he'd really gained 25 lbs from last year. So again, who knows?

dukeofcalabash
07-03-2013, 04:42 PM
When it gets down to it, I would go with Plumlee simply because his two brothers were 1st round draft choices who both started very slowly at Duke and he has tremendous 'potential' to develop into what a big man should be able to do at Duke. Can you imagine 3 1st round draft choices who are brothers?

mattman91
07-03-2013, 11:11 PM
When it gets down to it, I would go with Plumlee simply because his two brothers were 1st round draft choices who both started very slowly at Duke and he has tremendous 'potential' to develop into what a big man should be able to do at Duke. Can you imagine 3 1st round draft choices who are brothers?

That would be awesome. The Zeller brothers come to mind. Although Luke went undrafted, three brothers in the NBA is amazing.