Luke Winn's Efficiency Kings; Coach K best "After Timeout Coach"

[Troublemaker]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130506/college-basketball-player-coaching-awards/

Winn: I took Synergy Sports Technology's after-timeout efficiency data, adjusted it for defensive strength of schedule, and Coach K's Blue Devils came out on top, at 1.017 points per possession. In second place was a decidedly less famous name: Eastern Kentucky's Jeff Neubauer, whose Colonels had the best raw ATO PPP of anyone in the nation.
(FYI, this is the second season Winn has given out these awards. Last year, Coach K was 9th in this category).

[throatybeard]

How much of a sample size are we talking about here? In a given season, he probably calls fewer than, what, 200? And a bunch of those aren't in what he would call "game pressure" situations. Say you call a timeout to sit the starters at the end of the game, and then someone bricks a three...that lowers your after-timeout percentage.

[jimsumner]

So, Duke needs to lobby the NCAA for more time-outs?

[Troublemaker]

How much of a sample size are we talking about here? In a given season, he probably calls fewer than, what, 200? And a bunch of those aren't in what he would call "game pressure" situations. Say you call a timeout to sit the starters at the end of the game, and then someone bricks a three...that lowers your after-timeout percentage.

Yeah, I agree. There will probably be lots of variability season to season (although so far in Coach K's case, he is 2-for-2 in being a top 10 coach in this category).

The interesting thing to me about the "after timeout" category is that Coach K is tops at only 1.017 PPP. A 1.0 PPP across all possessions would make you a very average offense (1.0 is avg, 1.1 is good, 1.2 is great).

I think that is reflective of how often timeouts are used in "dire" situations. Like if a team looks confused and has wasted 25 seconds of the shotclock already and the coach has to draw up a play to be run in the remaining 10 seconds, that is not an efficient situation to be in. Another inefficient timeout situation: inbounding the ball to close the half with like 6 seconds left or something.

[Indoor66]

Is it safe to assume that Roy was not considered for this recognition?

[OldPhiKap]

Skip Prosser always impressed me on inbound plays after time outs. Always seemed to convert, and his players executed what he drew up.

[camion]

Is it safe to assume that Roy was not considered for this recognition?

Roy refuses to call timeouts so as not to embarrass his fellow coaches with his brilliance.

He was nonetheless declared the winner, but turned it down. What a guy.

[-jk]

Pretty much every coach calls one late in the first half on a regular basis. Unless the game is looking dire earlier in the first half, of course. An analysis of those, say, last 2-minute-first-half TOs would be an interesting subset - 25 or 30 games per coach.

Also, scoring in the last 60 seconds of the first half might show coaching 2-for-1 efforts.

-jk

[Newton_14]

Pretty much every coach calls one late in the first half on a regular basis. Unless the game is looking dire earlier in the first half, of course. An analysis of those, say, last 2-minute-first-half TOs would be an interesting subset.

Also, scoring in the last 60 seconds of the first half might show coaching 2-for-1 efforts.

-jk

Agree and K utilizes the 2-for-1 at the end of halves more often and better than any othe coach I have seen. One point I have always considered K the best at is time management in all areas of the game. It is engrained in our kids. Notice how often all 5 know the minute the whistle blows that is time for the TV timeout. Most times they are headed for the bench while the other team is looking up and going "oh, tv timeout". Little things. That add up over the course of 40 minutes that often save 1 or 2 points over the course of the game that end up mattering a lot at the end.

[PSurprise]

Good thing Chris Webber isn't a coach

[Olympic Fan]

Guys,

Pretty sure that ATO (After Time Out) data includes ALL timeouts -- not just ones called by a coach. I'm sure it includes all eight media timeouts, plus the ones called by he coaches.

So I suspect that it's a fairly large sample size.

[NovaScotian]

i love this especially because it validates his routine of calling a timeout right before the end of the first half.

[throatybeard]

Is it safe to assume that Roy was not considered for this recognition?

Roy is the first priest of the Woody Durham Church of having more timeouts left that your opponent at the end of the game, no matter what the result is. It's sort of a mindless sect that is an offshoot of the Church of Dean Smith, Defensor Timeoutes.

[Indoor66]

i love this especially because it validates his routine of calling a timeout right before the end of the first half.

I believe that time out is usually using the "use it or lose it" time out that is part of the game. Many coaches regularly use this time out.

[loran16]

Yeah, I agree. There will probably be lots of variability season to season (although so far in Coach K's case, he is 2-for-2 in being a top 10 coach in this category).

The interesting thing to me about the "after timeout" category is that Coach K is tops at only 1.017 PPP. A 1.0 PPP across all possessions would make you a very average offense (1.0 is avg, 1.1 is good, 1.2 is great).

I think that is reflective of how often timeouts are used in "dire" situations. Like if a team looks confused and has wasted 25 seconds of the shotclock already and the coach has to draw up a play to be run in the remaining 10 seconds, that is not an efficient situation to be in. Another inefficient timeout situation: inbounding the ball to close the half with like 6 seconds left or something.

I think it's a second thing you're missing - Non Timeout plays include transition plays and breaks, where the PPP is above 1 by a bit. By contrast, in a half court game, I suspect most teams are under 1 point per possession. The timeout plays are half court events 90% of the time.

[Highlander]

How much of a sample size are we talking about here? In a given season, he probably calls fewer than, what, 200? And a bunch of those aren't in what he would call "game pressure" situations. Say you call a timeout to sit the starters at the end of the game, and then someone bricks a three...that lowers your after-timeout percentage.

I would assume that "timeouts" would also include timeouts called by the opposing team, as well as TV timeouts. By those metrics, there could be as many as 15 per game, but probably a minimum of 8-10. If so, I think that's a reasonable sample size.

[Lar77]

Based on the discussion so far, this seems to be a hokie stat (no reference to VT intended). One of the key data points is not well defined and ignores an important modifier - game situation.

On a non-statistical "eye test" basis, Duke has seemed remarkably efficient in converting after "time outs called in the half court with a reasonable amount of time on the clock in a close game" or, for that matter, any inbound play in half court (e.g., Curry on the baseline, in to Plumlee, back to Curry for the three).

The contrast might be when Herb Sendek was at State and State seemed like the most inefficient team in the ACC coming into halfcourt after a timeout (no offense to Sendek, who was a good coach at State).

Duke players have several options on these plays, seem to be able to recognize the situation before them, and don't panic when option A doesn't play out. That is good coaching and good player discipline and decision making.

[UrinalCake]

I think it's a second thing you're missing - Non Timeout plays include transition plays and breaks, where the PPP is above 1 by a bit. By contrast, in a half court game, I suspect most teams are under 1 point per possession. The timeout plays are half court events 90% of the time.

Regarding PPP, I'd also consider that timeouts are often called when your opponent is on a big run, to help slow their momentum. In those types of situations I'd expect a team's PPP to be much lower.

And yes, our favorite inbounds play from the end line is to have a big man come and receive the ball, then hand it back to the inbounder and simultaneously screen off his man. We get a ton of open corner threes from that play.

[UrinalCake]

I would assume that "timeouts" would also include timeouts called by the opposing team, as well as TV timeouts. By those metrics, there could be as many as 15 per game, but probably a minimum of 8-10. If so, I think that's a reasonable sample size.

If your opponent calls a timeout, that almost always means they have the ball. So do these stats count your next possession after that? I wouldn't think so. On TV timeouts you of course have a 50% change of having the first possession.