MLax: A Bracket Full of Surprises

[burnspbesq]

Duke gets a home game.

Carolina gets massive disrespect and a brutal first-round game. Ohio State gets massive respect.

Remember when Maryland and Cornell were 1-2 in the polls? They're playing each other in the first round.

31 flavors of crazy.

Here's the complete bracket.

(1) Syracuse vs. Bryant
(8) Penn State vs. Yale
(5) North Carolina vs. Lehigh
(4) Denver vs. Albany
(3) Ohio State vs. Towson
(6) Maryland vs. Cornell
(7) Duke vs. Loyola
(2) Notre Dame vs. Detroit

[Native]

Carolina got absolutely, one thousand percent hosed. No questions.

And I'm rare to sympathize with our baby blue brethren, but, just... wow. Unbelievable.

Hopkins ends a 41-year streak of NCAA tournament bids.

Haven't seen much of Ohio State this year. Do they really deserve a 3 seed?

Glad our guys got a home game! I'll definitely make the trip out next Sunday.

[buddy]

Congratulations to the team for a 7th straight NCAA appearance. This one was more problematic than the previous six, but with good face off play, we can beat anyone in the field. Agree that UNC got dissed. Fortunately we are on the other side of the bracket from them.

[ForkFondler]

Carolina got absolutely, one thousand percent hosed. No questions.

And I'm rare to sympathize with our baby blue brethren, but, just... wow. Unbelievable.


Once again, Ohio State gets a mysteriously high seed that puts them in the Indianapolis bracket.

[burnspbesq]

that a one-goal loss in February to UMass could knock Carolina all the way down to the five seed, but if you take what the selection committee chair said on the ESPNU bracket show at face value, that's what did it.

So many storylines to chew on as the week unfolds.

Can Syracuse get the ball enough to get rolling? Bryant's Kevin Massa has the number one faceoff percentage in the national and set a new single-season record for ground balls.

Ohio State got huge love from the selection committee for beating Loyola and Denver in the ECAC tournament, but they have to contend with an All-America caliber goaltender in Towson's Andrew Wascavage.

The Thompson Show against Denver's suspect defense? OMG. Lyle Thompson needs seven points to set a new single-season scoring record. He could have it by halftime.

Maryland's defense did OK against Holman and Sankey, but all due respect to the Heels' attack, Rob Pannell and Steve Mock are a much bigger challenge.

Loyola is playing better than they were when we beat them in March. Can we rise to the occasion?

Penn State - Yale is anybody's guess. Two stingy defenses. Is Dylan Levings the difference-maker at the dot?

Detroit is, simply put, a bad team, but they're playing with house money and Notre Dame's offense is on the fritz.

Lehigh's defense is more physical than anything Carolina has seen all year, and their attack is vastly underrated. Who blinks first?

[MCFinARL]

Assuming Duke can beat Loyola--which won't be easy but doesn't seem impossible--I don't feel that bad about Notre Dame as a second round matchup. Duke is playing much better, at least on offense, than when Notre Dame thrashed them early in the season, and Notre Dame not as well. On the other hand, the game, if it happens, will be in Indianapolis--a much more favorable venue for ND than for Duke.

[budwom]

Carolina got absolutely, one thousand percent hosed. No questions.

And I'm rare to sympathize with our baby blue brethren, but, just... wow. Unbelievable.

Hopkins ends a 41-year streak of NCAA tournament bids.

Haven't seen much of Ohio State this year. Do they really deserve a 3 seed?

Glad our guys got a home game! I'll definitely make the trip out next Sunday.

I can understand the sentiment that Carolina got hosed, but I've felt for weeks that they have been
a VERY flimsy top ranked team. They're good, but not that good.

[sagegrouse]

I can understand the sentiment that Carolina got hosed, but I've felt for weeks that they have been
a VERY flimsy top ranked team. They're good, but not that good.

That's the point I was missing -- UNC was ranked #1, but ended up as a #5 seed. Wow!

Here's the lede from the story on ESPN:


North Carolina holds the No. 1 ranking in the polls but that wasn't enough to sway the selection committee, which gave the top-ranked Tar Heels (12-3) the No. 5 seed in this year's NCAA men's lacrosse tournament.

Syracuse (13-3) earned the No. 1 overall seed and will host Bryant when the tournament kicks off next weekend.

sagegrouse
'I don't know a thing about lacrosses and still don't understand why the team that shoots the ball out of bounds gets it back'

[Native]

'I don't know a thing about lacrosses and still don't understand why the team that shoots the ball out of bounds gets it back'

Think rebounding. Off of a shot, the team that's closest to where the ball goes out of bounds gets it. In basketball, it's not like the team that misses doesn't ever get the ball back either.

And yeah, maybe UNC wasn't the #1 overall seed, but they were definitely higher than a 5.

[loran16]

sagegrouse
'I don't know a thing about lacrosses and still don't understand why the team that shoots the ball out of bounds gets it back'

The idea in concept is that if OOBs always went to the other team, shots would go WAY down.

[killerleft]

The idea in concept is that if OOBs always went to the other team, shots would go WAY down.

So, THAT'S why they do that. I watch a couple-three games a year, and wondered why!

[MCFinARL]

Think rebounding. Off of a shot, the team that's closest to where the ball goes out of bounds gets it. In basketball, it's not like the team that misses doesn't ever get the ball back either.

And yeah, maybe UNC wasn't the #1 overall seed, but they were definitely higher than a 5.

In the rather byzantine seeding system, which seems to look at the same factors over and over again in different ways (SOS, RPI, quality of wins, quality of losses), North Carolina suffered because Maryland fell from a top-5 RPI win to a top-10. leaving UNC with no top 5 wins, and Duke's RPI fell to 12, giving Carolina a worse loss and a less good win than it had when Duke's RPI was top 10. (I suppose as Duke fans we can take some grim satisfaction from the fact that our own team's drop in RPI ended up punishing our arch rival as much as it did us.)

At the same time, UNC's worst loss, to UMass (RPI 22) counted as a much worse loss than OSU's worst loss, Loyola (RPI 9). Denver's worst loss, to RPI 24 Fairfield, was worse than UNC's, but it had a top-5 win, over Ohio State, as well as a top-10 win and three top-20 wins, so it climbed over UNC as well.

It's not clear how much, if at all, they take into account when these games were played; obviously UNC has been playing much better recently than when it lost to UMass.

[loran16]

In the rather byzantine seeding system, which seems to look at the same factors over and over again in different ways (SOS, RPI, quality of wins, quality of losses), North Carolina suffered because Maryland fell from a top-5 RPI win to a top-10. leaving UNC with no top 5 wins, and Duke's RPI fell to 12, giving Carolina a worse loss and a less good win than it had when Duke's RPI was top 10. (I suppose as Duke fans we can take some grim satisfaction from the fact that our own team's drop in RPI ended up punishing our arch rival as much as it did us.)

At the same time, UNC's worst loss, to UMass (RPI 22) counted as a much worse loss than OSU's worst loss, Loyola (RPI 9). Denver's worst loss, to RPI 24 Fairfield, was worse than UNC's, but it had a top-5 win, over Ohio State, as well as a top-10 win and three top-20 wins, so it climbed over UNC as well.

It's not clear how much, if at all, they take into account when these games were played; obviously UNC has been playing much better recently than when it lost to UMass.

The lesson of course is this: Seeding sucks in every sport, but LaX, like Men's BBall, has a playoff. UNC can rub their detractors' faces in the mud by winning.

Of course, I'd prefer they don't.

[Kedsy]

In the rather byzantine seeding system, which seems to look at the same factors over and over again in different ways (SOS, RPI, quality of wins, quality of losses)...

Isn't this exactly the same way NCAA basketball tournament seeding is determined? Or would you characterize that as Byzantine as well? (I am making no value judgments either way, just asking.)

[loran16]

Isn't this exactly the same way NCAA basketball tournament seeding is determined? Or would you characterize that as Byzantine as well? (I am making no value judgments either way, just asking.)

Yes. And Yes.

[MCFinARL]

The lesson of course is this: Seeding sucks in every sport, but LaX, like Men's BBall, has a playoff. UNC can rub their detractors' faces in the mud by winning.

Of course, I'd prefer they don't.

Me too!

They will have their work cut out for them--Lehigh (ably coached by Duke alum and former Duke assistant Kevin Cassesse) has the second-ranked defense in the country, according to lax.com, allowing 7.4 goals per game. http://www.lax.com/stats.phtml?div=1#offense

[MCFinARL]

Isn't this exactly the same way NCAA basketball tournament seeding is determined? Or would you characterize that as Byzantine as well? (I am making no value judgments either way, just asking.)

I'll actually have to research to see if it is exactly the same or slightly different, as I am not a student of the exact seeding rules in either sport, though you are obviously right that they are similar.

One big difference, not that it necessarily affects the point we are addressing here, is that only 8 of the 16 teams in the lacrosse tournament are seeded. The other eight are assigned based on reduction of travel expense (which, somewhat ironically, can often lead to one extremely long trip, as with Albany going to Denver this year, because the goal is to limit the number of teams that have to fly to their game rather than to match all teams with the closest opponents) and to avoid, when possible, of conference rematches. Similar criteria come into play in the basketball tournament but, because there is a much bigger field, these adjustments can be made without having to abandon the concept of seeding all teams.

[awhom111]

The idea in concept is that if OOBs always went to the other team, shots would go WAY down.

I had always heard that it was done that way to simulate the fact that in the original game, there were no boundaries on the field, so it would basically be like the person closest to the shot chasing it down after the ball stopped rolling. Is that just myth/urban legend?

[Nepos]

So, THAT'S why they do that. I watch a couple-three games a year, and wondered why!

Actually, if I'm not mistaken, the answer is a little more interesting than trying to inflate the number of shots. Originally, lacrosse did not have boundaries. The native Americans played on big, open fields and simply ran to get the ball after it was shot. When boundaries were imposed by Europeans, the decision was made to award the ball to the closest person to where it went out (the person who was in best position to get it if the game had no boundaries).

[-bdbd]

Big Duke Lax game on Sat. and here is a good breakdown.
I am very surprised to see they give Loyola 58% chance of winning, AT DUKE!


http://www.collegecrosse.com/2013/5/10/4319112/ncaa-lacrosse-tournament-duke-loyola-college-espn-stream-television-blue-devils-greyhounds

Date and Time: Sunday, 5:15 P.M.
Location: Koskinen Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
Broadcast: ESPNU
Game "Fun Factor" Rank: 4th (4.7644)
log5 Victory Probabilities: Duke -- 41.72%; Loyola -- 58.28%



●There are probably three things that are going to drive Duke's successes or failures against Loyola: (1) How much possession margin the Devils can generate against the Greyhounds; (2) With those extra offensive possessions (putting the ball in Jordan Wolf's crosse and letting Duke's offense attack), the efficiency of the Devils' offense when operating against a pretty strong Loyola defense; and (3) Whether Duke's defense will provide enough value to complement the team's offense.......

[greybeard]

Syracuse's coach is the best in the business, especially quarter no. 4.

[burnspbesq]

Big Duke Lax game on Sat. and here is a good breakdown.
I am very surprised to see they give Loyola 58% chance of winning, AT DUKE!


http://www.collegecrosse.com/2013/5/10/4319112/ncaa-lacrosse-tournament-duke-loyola-college-espn-stream-television-blue-devils-greyhounds

Date and Time: Sunday, 5:15 P.M.
Location: Koskinen Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
Broadcast: ESPNU
Game "Fun Factor" Rank: 4th (4.7644)
log5 Victory Probabilities: Duke -- 41.72%; Loyola -- 58.28%



●There are probably three things that are going to drive Duke's successes or failures against Loyola: (1) How much possession margin the Devils can generate against the Greyhounds; (2) With those extra offensive possessions (putting the ball in Jordan Wolf's crosse and letting Duke's offense attack), the efficiency of the Devils' offense when operating against a pretty strong Loyola defense; and (3) Whether Duke's defense will provide enough value to complement the team's offense.......

I haven't dug deeply into the formula to try to understand how log5 probabilities of winning are computed, but if you look at all eight game previews at collegecrosse.com, you'll see some pretty counter-intuitive stuff.