Bottom 3 movies of summer!

[JasonEvans]

We talked about this a bit in the Top 5 poll and I decided to go ahead and make a poll for it.

Here are the rules.


Vote for three of the films listed in the poll. Only vote for three. If you vote for 4, you cannot win. If you vote for 2 you cannot win. This is like the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch.
No write-ins will be allowed. These are all films expected to be very successful at the boxffice. You are not allowed to pick some small, limited release film in place of one of them.
You are voting for the films on this list that will have a LOWEST BOXOFFICE. To some extent, we are voting for the biggest busts of summer. A film that makes $90 million is a better pick than one that makes $120 million. Everyone understand?
Voting will close in 8 days, so vote fast!
The contest will close at the end of September or when it is clear that we know which of the films did the worst at the boxoffice.


-Jason "enjoy... an any vote for Iron Man 3 must be explained in a post and is subject to a barrage of criticism ;)" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Great Gatsby ---- zzzzzzzzzz. I'm going to try really hard to convince girlfriend to wait for the DVD, but she wants to see it. Even the title bores me. Kids won't see it, many guys like me won't want to (but will be dragged by their girlfriends), I vote bomb.

After Earth --- M. Knight kills it for me, might not even watch it on tv. I don't care about Will Smith's kid. There are far better sci-fi flicks to choose from.

World War Z --- We have almost hit a point with zombie saturation. The zombie love story that was out earlier didn't do so hot, and Brad Pitt does not guarantee box office success. As JE pointed out, too many attempts to save this film (bring it back from the dead maybe?!) don't bode well. I will probably watch it on DVD, but it will be after I finish watching my recordings of The Walking Dead.

[BD80]

Great Gatsby ---- zzzzzzzzzz. I'm going to try really hard to convince girlfriend to wait for the DVD, but she wants to see it. Even the title bores me. Kids won't see it, many guys like me won't want to (but will be dragged by their girlfriends), I vote bomb.

After Earth --- M. Knight kills it for me, might not even watch it on tv. I don't care about Will Smith's kid. There are far better sci-fi flicks to choose from.

World War Z --- We have almost hit a point with zombie saturation. The zombie love story that was out earlier didn't do so hot, and Brad Pitt does not guarantee box office success. As JE pointed out, too many attempts to save this film (bring it back from the dead maybe?!) don't bode well. I will probably watch it on DVD, but it will be after I finish watching my recordings of The Walking Dead.

Very sound points.

I'll choose the other three clunker candidates:

Lone Ranger - might overshoot campy (as in Pirates) into too stupid even for adolescent movie goers. Johnny Depp will be 50 when this movie comes out.

The Internship - None of the creative talent behing Wedding Crashers is involved. VVaughn hasn't done anything good in the 8 years since, but a lot BAD. Like his frequent cohort Ben Stiller, VV is now just grabbing $ where he can, no semblance of pride in his craft or care for his audience.

The Wolverine - the sequel/prequel nobody's been clamoring for. The X-Men franchise looped back to the origins of the X-Men (although next year's release is one of those time traveling old meets new plotlines with Jackman as Wolverine). Late summer release. Can't imagine a story that many will be interested in. Least confident this will do badly, probably #6 from bottom, but you've got to make bold choices to be the sole champion!

I think this woul be a failrly easy game if the goal were to pick the bottom 5.

[A-Tex Devil]

Lone Ranger - Wild Wild West Redux, seems like. Unknown lead, Depp playing a borderline racist sterotype. Nope.

After Earth - M. Night. All that needs to be said. Plus Oblivion kinda beat this one to the punch too. Not exactly the same movies but close.

Pacific Rim - This could go either way, but I am leaning toward bust. Battleship, Battle of LA, etc. etc. have all not done well. I just don't see this working, but who knows.

World War Z, Gatsby and Wolverine will all do well enough not to be complete busts, I imagine.

[JasonEvans]

I went with Gatsby, After Earth, and Internship.

I am frankly shocked there is not more consensus on Internship. I see it as the mortal lock of this group. The trailers don't look funny and both Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn have made some really bad films in recent years. Plus, Hangover III comes out two weeks before it and is going to satisfy a lot of the "I want to laugh" demand at theaters. This Is The End comes the week after Internship and that movie looks a million times funnier than this one.

I may regret After Earth as a pick. The trailer looks solid and Will Smith, thou not the star he once was, still will bring in an audience. But, the trailers sure make it appear that Will Smith gets killed off in the first five or ten minutes of the film. I wonder if he is going to appear in the rest of the movie as an educational hologram or something like that. Regardless, I think word will get out that Will is not in this movie very much and that will hurt. But, like many of you, I am voting for this film (or voting against it, which is it?) because of M Night. Hey, I just realized that if Will dies and then comes back as a hologram then Jaden can look into the camera and say, "I see dead people" in this movie, just to remind all of us how good M Night once was many, many years ago.

Gatsby is by Baz Lurhman, "the visionary director of Moulin Rouge and Romeo + Juliet." Ummm, I hate Baz Lurhman films. They are all flash and style and he forgets little details like story and characters. Baz's most successful film to date is Moulin Rouge which made all of $55 million in 2001. Even with inflation adjustments, that is still only like $75 or $80 mill in total boxoffice. I think this movie will do slightly more than that, but not much more. If it did not have Leo, it would struggle to make $50 million. It is also stuck in between Iron Man 3 and Star Trek. I doubt many Gatsby fans are going to go to Star Trek, but I think Iron Man is going to cross gender and generational boundaries and will impact Gatsby, much as Avengers impacted other May films last year.

-Jason "to me, the key is to pick films without a built-in audience. As a result, I think folks picking Wolverine are making a big mistake" Evans

[brevity]

As I predicted in the other thread (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?31196), the bottom three should be The Internship, World War Z, and The Great Gatsby. I've already contributed to the mass dismantling of The Internship (though it might make good TV viewing based on Aasif Mandvi). Now the others.

I see World War Z as divisive, so the people who really want to see it are hopeful that it will be a great success. Those of us who don't care for zombie movies (myself included) can't fathom it doing well in a summer movie market. Everyone else is waiting for that one review telling them to stay home and watch "The Walking Dead" on Netflix instead. Believe me, that review will come.

I've touched upon The Great Gatsby, but I've seen a few more ads now and am wondering about the women. Is Carey Mulligan miscast? She's 11 years younger than Leonardo DiCaprio, and I believe their characters are close to the same age. For that and other reasons I'm having a difficult time being interested in her place here. I'll admit that the entire Daisy Buchanan character is a bit of a turn-off anyway, but I thought most guy viewers were supposed to find her at least somewhat appealing, in that falsely-attainable Katie Holmes way (I'll never understand that one either). Meanwhile, Isla Fisher is also in the movie, but a non-presence in the trailers. The studio really has no desire to directly target straight men.

[camion]

I picked the ones a really really plan on not seeing.

One - The Great Gatsby
Two - The Internship
Five - The Lone Ranger

I consider all zombie movies at this point to be stinkers emeritus and already in. No need to vote on them.

[A-Tex Devil]

Can I ask why Internship was even on here? Simply because it reunites the Wedding Crashers crew? Otherwise, how is it different than any other harmless summer R rated comedy like Bad Teacher or Horrible Bosses? Not sure that anyone EXPECTS it or NEEDS it to be a blockbuster.

So, yeah, it's a gimme, I guess. But I'd suggest, sheepishly, that it should be removed altogether. It's like taking all of last years MLB playoff teams, and the Astros, and asking which 3 teams will have the worst record this year.

[NashvilleDevil]

So if The Internship cost $50 million to make and makes $90 million is that considered a bomb? Lone Ranger probably cost close to $200 million+ and it could make $150 million which is more than the hypothetical amount The Internship made but it lost over $50 million while The Internship had a profit of $40 million.

[CameronBornAndBred]

So if The Internship cost $50 million to make and makes $90 million is that considered a bomb? Lone Ranger probably cost close to $200 million+ and it could make $150 million which is more than the hypothetical amount The Internship made but it lost over $50 million while The Internship had a profit of $40 million.
Great point and it needs to be added to the criteria. The bombs' should be judged on losses, or their minimal returns, and not sales. I have no idea what each cost to make, but we can Google it easily. Also, are we using domestic returns or international returns? Because some of the people on the rest of the planet seem to have nothing better to do other than go watch really crappy movies.

[NashvilleDevil]

Great point and it needs to be added to the criteria. The bombs' should be judged on losses, or their minimal returns, and not sales. I have no idea what each cost to make, but we can Google it easily. Also, are we using domestic returns or international returns? Because some of the people on the rest of the planet seem to have nothing better to do other than go watch really crappy movies.

The best box office poll is always domestic so this one is probably domestic as well.

[Deslok]

Great point and it needs to be added to the criteria. The bombs' should be judged on losses, or their minimal returns, and not sales. I have no idea what each cost to make, but we can Google it easily. Also, are we using domestic returns or international returns? Because some of the people on the rest of the planet seem to have nothing better to do other than go watch really crappy movies.

We call that part of the planet "America" ;).

And for a more thoughtful response, the Hollywood movies that tend to do better in foreign markets are less dialog intensive. For a non-native English speaking audience, a movie like Lincoln is much less appealing than something that's more stereotypically "when in doubt, blow it up." Domestic studios often don't have the budgets to match the special effects of those sorts of movies, while they can easily afford their own language versions of dialogue laden films that are more culturally centered on their own nation. Just because the movies that Hollywood gets more $ overseas are not always more intellectually oriented does not negate the fact that such movies are often produced by their own domestic studios(or at least, as often as is done in Hollywood, which might be more rare than we'd prefer).

[JasonEvans]

Great point and it needs to be added to the criteria. The bombs' should be judged on losses, or their minimal returns, and not sales. I have no idea what each cost to make, but we can Google it easily. Also, are we using domestic returns or international returns? Because some of the people on the rest of the planet seem to have nothing better to do other than go watch really crappy movies.

We already established the criteria as boxoffice, not gross profits. Gross profits would certain change the calculus but it is simply too late for that. Also, all our polls are domestic boxoffice. We don't do international. If we did, Madagascar 3 and Ice Age 5 would have been huge winners a year ago.

-Jason "The Internship is being billed as a Wedding Crashers reunion, which is why some have expected big boxoffice from it -- there is almost always one raunchy comedy making big money during the summer, The Internship could be it this summer" Evans

[wavedukefan70s]

As I predicted in the other thread (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?31196), the bottom three should be The Internship, World War Z, and The Great Gatsby. I've already contributed to the mass dismantling of The Internship (though it might make good TV viewing based on Aasif Mandvi). Now the others.

I see World War Z as divisive, so the people who really want to see it are hopeful that it will be a great success. Those of us who don't care for zombie movies (myself included) can't fathom it doing well in a summer movie market. Everyone else is waiting for that one review telling them to stay home and watch "The Walking Dead" on Netflix instead. Believe me, that review will come.

I've touched upon The Great Gatsby, but I've seen a few more ads now and am wondering about the women. Is Carey Mulligan miscast? She's 11 years younger than Leonardo DiCaprio, and I believe their characters are close to the same age. For that and other reasons I'm having a difficult time being interested in her place here. I'll admit that the entire Daisy Buchanan character is a bit of a turn-off anyway, but I thought most guy viewers were supposed to find her at least somewhat appealing, in that falsely-attainable Katie Holmes way (I'll never understand that one either). Meanwhile, Isla Fisher is also in the movie, but a non-presence in the trailers. The studio really has no desire to directly target straight men.
Absolutely agree!especially on zombie movies.last zombie movie i saw on purpose was return of the living dead in 83 or 84.

[BD80]

I went with Gatsby, After Earth, and Internship.

I am frankly shocked there is not more consensus on Internship. I see it as the mortal lock of this group. The trailers don't look funny and both Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn have made some really bad films in recent years. Plus, Hangover III comes out two weeks before it and is going to satisfy a lot of the "I want to laugh" demand at theaters. This Is The End comes the week after Internship and that movie looks a million times funnier than this one.

I may regret After Earth as a pick. The trailer looks solid and Will Smith, thou not the star he once was, still will bring in an audience. But, the trailers sure make it appear that Will Smith gets killed off in the first five or ten minutes of the film. I wonder if he is going to appear in the rest of the movie as an educational hologram or something like that. ...


... -Jason "The Internship is being billed as a Wedding Crashers reunion, which is why some have expected big boxoffice from it -- there is almost always one raunchy comedy making big money during the summer, The Internship could be it this summer" Evans

The Internship is written by Vince Vaughn (who also wrote The Break-Up and Couples Retreat) and Jared Stern (who also wrote The Watch and the screenplay for Mr Popper's Penguins). No reason to expect anything resembling comedy. Raunchy? Maybe. Awkward? My guess is yes.

The plot of After Earth appears to involve Will Smith as a famous, heroic general returning from war to finally reunite with his family, but he and his son crash land on long-abandoned earth. General Will is trapped in the cockpit, while son Jaden must journey forth to retrieve their homing beacon to save his father. So most of the film will depict Jaden's adventures as he tries to live up to his father's reputation - art imitating life?

[JasonEvans]

The plot of After Earth appears to involve Will Smith as a famous, heroic general returning from war to finally reunite with his family, but he and his son crash land on long-abandoned earth. General Will is trapped in the cockpit, while son Jaden must journey forth to retrieve their homing beacon to save his father. So most of the film will depict Jaden's adventures as he tries to live up to his father's reputation - art imitating life?

You know, somehow I had missed this trailer that does make the plot more clear.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wq4noedWLiw

I thought it appeared that Will died, being sucked out into space when the back of the spaceship tears open at the :44 mark, but it now appears he is sucked forward (into the cockpit) instead of sucked out the back. So, I guess he is not dead. The trailer also says "2 confirmed survivors," so unless someone else is alive, Will and Jaden both make it down to the deadly planet Earth.

The trailer looks pretty awful to me though. Seems like the story is super simplistic and I am not sure how much nuance it is going to have. Will's accent is strange too. I feel much better about picking this film to flop after seeing this trailer.

-Jason "AE has a reported budget of around $130 million. It will do well internationally and should come close to breaking even" Evans

[brevity]

I thought it appeared that Will died, being sucked out into space when the back of the spaceship tears open at the :44 mark, but it now appears he is sucked forward (into the cockpit) instead of sucked out the back.

I think many of us can agree that there is some level of sucking that is taking place. (We're still trash talking, right?)

[cato]

I'm surprised at all the negativity towards Gatsby. I loved Strictly Ballroom, Bill's Romeo + Juliet and Moulin Rouge, and was intrigued by the longer trailer for Gatsby. I sure hope it doesn't end up competing for the raspberry poll.

[Lord Ash]

Can't believe all the "hate" for a Pacific Rim. I really think it will do well!

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm surprised at all the negativity towards Gatsby. I loved Strictly Ballroom, Bill's Romeo + Juliet and Moulin Rouge, and was intrigued by the longer trailer for Gatsby. I sure hope it doesn't end up competing for the raspberry poll.
I'm not being "negative" towards Gatsby. It will probably be a good movie. I didn't see Moulin Rouge, but I enjoyed seeing R&J and his updates to setting. I just don't think there will be a large enough audience for it to do well as a summer movie. I have no interest in seeing it, and I know kids won't want to see it, and many couples will have other choices on movie night. (The guy on most dates is going to be arguing "no" and vote popcorn flick or comedy instead.)

[davekay1971]

Can't believe all the "hate" for a Pacific Rim. I really think it will do well!

I think the popularity of Pacific Rim as a bottom 3 pick is more about the fact that it is: (1) not a sequel, and (2) does not feature a marquee name (except maybe the director...though Del Toro isn't in the category of director where people go to see his stuff en masse because of his name). Two recent summer sci-fi spectaculars that were not sequels and didn't feature a marquee actor...John Carter and Battleship. On the flip side, there was District 9...so quality can actually win out. If Pacific Rim gets great reviews and great word of mouth, it can do well. But it's going to depend on those two things, and that makes it appealing as a bottom 3 pick.

[JasonEvans]

I think the popularity of Pacific Rim as a bottom 3 pick is more about the fact that it is: (1) not a sequel, and (2) does not feature a marquee name (except maybe the director...though Del Toro isn't in the category of director where people go to see his stuff en masse because of his name). Two recent summer sci-fi spectaculars that were not sequels and didn't feature a marquee actor...John Carter and Battleship. On the flip side, there was District 9...so quality can actually win out. If Pacific Rim gets great reviews and great word of mouth, it can do well. But it's going to depend on those two things, and that makes it appealing as a bottom 3 pick.

Well, it does have a "giant robots versus giant aliens!" cool factor working for it too. But, the potential is defintely there for it to stink like Battleship did.

-Jason "I think Del Toro has done a good job of marketing the film though. It feels nothing like the cheese that was Battleship" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

A good read on why WWZ may or may not suck.

http://screenrant.com/damon-lindelof-world-war-z-movie-ending-rewrite/?utm_source=feedly&_r=true

[brevity]

Can't believe all the "hate" for a Pacific Rim. I really think it will do well!

I didn't pick it for my bottom 3, but I could see it getting lost in the shuffle. Also, I could see casual buyers (who make or break summer movies) getting Pacific Rim confused with Elysium, and skipping the man-in-robot-armor film that does not have Matt Damon.

[NashvilleDevil]

I didn't pick it for my bottom 3, but I could see it getting lost in the shuffle. Also, I could see casual buyers (who make or break summer movies) getting Pacific Rim confused with Elysium, and skipping the man-in-robot-armor film that does not have Matt Damon.

I don't know. Has Matt Damon made a huge movie that didn't involve being part of Danny Ocean's crew or playing a super spy with amnesia?

[brevity]

I don't know. Has Matt Damon made a huge movie that didn't involve being part of Danny Ocean's crew or playing a super spy with amnesia?

Depends. Take away those 6 movies and his biggest films (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=mattdamon.htm&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm) are Saving Private Ryan ($216M), True Grit ($171M), Good Will Hunting ($138M), and The Departed ($132M). I guess you could exclude those films as well if you argue that the draws were Spielberg/Hanks, Coens/Bridges, Robin Williams, and Scorsese/DiCaprio/Nicholson. You would be left with clear Damon films around $50-75M, but you've also sort of missed the point of Matt Damon. He's usually part of a package deal; he doesn't have to carry the film by himself. Elysium has Jodie Foster and will play up the District 9 thing.

Also, it's still not clear to me why we had to exclude the Jason Bourne films in the first place. Matt Damon was clearly the main draw in those.

[JasonEvans]

The poll is closed and the 48% of us who picked Gatsby are feeling pretty good right now! Many projections have it earning about $35 mil its opening weekend and only about $100 million total. The reviews are generally poor, though not terrible. Obviously, we will need to see how so many other films in this contest do, but it certainly feels like Gatsby will be in the running for the bottom 3 of summer.

-Jason "this is fun. We are going to do a bottom 3 poll every season -- to go along with our top 5 polls" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

The poll is closed and the 48% of us who picked Gatsby are feeling pretty good right now! Many projections have it earning about $35 mil its opening weekend and only about $100 million total. The reviews are generally poor, though not terrible. Obviously, we will need to see how so many other films in this contest do, but it certainly feels like Gatsby will be in the running for the bottom 3 of summer.

-Jason "this is fun. We are going to do a bottom 3 poll every season -- to go along with our top 5 polls" Evans
My girlfriend no longer wants to see it. Wooohooo!!!

[JasonEvans]

The poll is closed and the 48% of us who picked Gatsby are feeling pretty good right now! Many projections have it earning about $35 mil its opening weekend and only about $100 million total. The reviews are generally poor, though not terrible. Obviously, we will need to see how so many other films in this contest do, but it certainly feels like Gatsby will be in the running for the bottom 3 of summer.

I may have spoken too soon.

Gatsby did $3+ million from midnight showings, a huge number for a female-driven film. It now looks like it is going to have a $40+ mil opening and, unless word of mouth is terrible, it should get to $100 million in total boxoffice. I may be a contender for our bottom 3, but it won't be anywhere close to a lock.

-Jason "Gatsby currently sits at 46% on Rotten Tomatoes -- bad, but not horrible" Evans

[Udaman]

JE - I'll double or nothing our bet that Gatsby doesn't get to $100M. It simply won't happen.

At best it has 2 weeks of people going to it, and it might be at $40M this weekend, but I doubt it. Nobody is going to go see this twice (it's insanely long, nearly 2.5 hours), and it will get none of the teenage boy (or girl) audience....and in 1 week Start Trek comes out, and then the Hangover 3 and Before Midnight.

Uda "yes, this is just a lame attempt to make up for how awesome JE was in taking me to the woodshed on my inane bet that IM3 wouldn't break $375M" man

[CameronBornAndBred]

JE - I'll double or nothing our bet that Gatsby doesn't get to $100M. It simply won't happen.

At best it has 2 weeks of people going to it, and it might be at $40M this weekend, but I doubt it. Nobody is going to go see this twice (it's insanely long, nearly 2.5 hours), and it will get none of the teenage boy (or girl) audience....and in 1 week Start Trek comes out, and then the Hangover 3 and Before Midnight.

Uda "yes, this is just a lame attempt to make up for how awesome JE was in taking me to the woodshed on my inane bet that IM3 wouldn't break $375M" man
I'm guessing IM3 comes in on top of the weekend again, then of course Star Trek crushes everyone next weekend. I don't know how much Gatsby will get total, but I doubt $100M.

[cato]

AO Scott's review of Gatsby over at NYTimes (http://movies.nytimes.com/2013/05/10/movies/the-great-gatsby-interpreted-by-baz-luhrmann.html?ref=arts&_r=0) rekindled my interest in the movie. I doubt we'll go see it in the theater, since we have to keep a precious baby-sitting pass for Star Trek, but I would absolutely go see it before seeing, say, IM3.

Eh, we'll see. I hope Baz stays out of the bottom three.

[JasonEvans]

JE - I'll double or nothing our bet that Gatsby doesn't get to $100M. It simply won't happen.

I am somewhat tempted, not because I think Gatsby will be good, but because I think it has a chance to catch on with women just enough to push it over $100 million. I am not endorsing it as a hit, merely not writing it off as a total failure yet.

But, I cannot take the bet because I voted for Gatsby in this poll and that would mean betting against myself. I am not going there.

-Jason "see if you can come up with some other fun bet... cause you are gonna lose the Iron Man 3 one!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

The folks who voted for World War Z may be in real trouble. Paramount this week launched a counter-offensive to all the bad "they had to re-shoot the entire ending" publicity that the film has gotten. Part of that counter-offensive was showing the film to a select number of critics and journalists. Well, the word is that the movie is really good. Here is what one journalist for Deadline.com said about it.


Each time I told someone I’d seen it, the response from industry insiders was a version of, “Well, just how bad is it?” I’m no reviewer but I can honestly say that it’s better than good; try a rocking, smart, pulse pounding big scale pandemic with raging zombies, tension and the kind of hero star turn Pitt hasn’t done in a long time.

-Jason "It won't do I Am Legend ($256 mil) kind of numbers, but I suspect this film is going to be in the $150 mil kind of range" Evans

[luburch]

Just heard from several people that Gatsby is "amazing" and "hands down movie of the year"

[JasonEvans]

Just heard from several people that Gatsby is "amazing" and "hands down movie of the year"

Hollywood is buzzing that Gatsby is going to do more than $50-million this opening weekend. The Friday figure looks to be about $20 million. If it opens north of $50 million, it would have to get horrible word of mouth (it may not be great, but it ain't that bad) to come up short of $100 million. I am now thinking the lowest it does is more like $120 million, and that's if it does just so-so the next couple weeks. I expect it will not be in the bottom 3 of summer.

-Jason "I lose... that was quick" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

This could be an exciting contest with the Hangover looking like a disaster according to our expert Mr. Evans. That said no one picked it because we all thought the Wolfpack was good for at least $150 million.

[El_Diablo]

JE - I'll double or nothing our bet that Gatsby doesn't get to $100M. It simply won't happen.

At best it has 2 weeks of people going to it, and it might be at $40M this weekend, but I doubt it. Nobody is going to go see this twice (it's insanely long, nearly 2.5 hours), and it will get none of the teenage boy (or girl) audience....and in 1 week Start Trek comes out, and then the Hangover 3 and Before Midnight.

Gatsby surpassed the $100 million mark yesterday. After this weekend, it should be in the $115-120 million range. It seems to be safely out of the bottom three at this point.

[El_Diablo]

Here is how HSX handicaps the race as of this evening:

Iron Man 3 - 391.55
Man of Steel - 277.44
Fast & Furious 6 - 226.37
Monsters University - 221.14
Star Trek: Into Darkness - 197.33
Despicable Me 2 - 188.40
The Wolverine - 171.38
Pacific Rim - 150.44
World War Z - 137.77
Great Gatsby - 134.21
The Lone Ranger -121.37
Hangover Part III - 119.42
After Earth - 99.97
The Internship - 66.62

Italicized entries have not opened or are opening this weekend, so they are more speculative. And keep in mind that these numbers are for the first four weeks only, so they do not account for relative "legs" equally.

[JasonEvans]

Congrats to 1999ballboy, A-Tex Devil, CameronBornAndBred, dball, DevilBen02, El_Diablo, fidel, Highlander, JasonEvans, Kdogg, Lord Ash, matt1, mph, NashvilleDevil, rsvman, and sporthenry!!

We all picked After Earth as one of the bottom 3 and it is looking like a very, very strong contender. VERY STRONG!

Early buzz is that it is going to open with only mid-$20 million kind of boxoffice. This film may end up making something like $60-70 million when all is said and done. It is a massive flop!

-Jason "it appears Hangover III will have trouble catching Great Gatsby, so if you had Gatsby as a flop but not Hangover, your hopes of going 3-for-3 are slim" Evans

[davekay1971]

If only I'd known that After Earth was a Scientology movie! Scientology...sci fi movie...Battlefield Earth. Throw the director of The Happening and Avatar...

I may be lucky to go 1 for 3 in this poll...

[matt1]

Will the Hangover III avoid this list? I also expect the Internship to do better than most seem to expect it to.

[jimsumner]

Not part of the original list but Grown Ups 2 is looming on the horizon.

Any movie starring Adam Sandler and Kevin James has a huge head start in any worst-movie poll. How Adam Sandler keeps getting green-lighted for movies is one of life's most enduring mysteries.

[NashvilleDevil]

Not part of the original list but Grown Ups 2 is looming on the horizon.

Any movie starring Adam Sandler and Kevin James has a huge head start in any worst-movie poll. How Adam Sandler keeps getting green-lighted for movies is one of life's most enduring mysteries.

Because he makes cheap movies that always make money

[jimsumner]

Because he makes cheap movies that always make money

Yes, I guess he does.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?id=adamsandler.htm

Maybe I should amend my question to why do people pay money to see these movies? I can barely make it through the promos without reaching for the TV remote.

A few years back my wife and I were walking around Manhattan, minding our business, not bothering anybody when a woman offered us two tickets to Letterman that night. Turned out it was legit. She was from CBS and everything.

Of course, we said yes. It was July and we were doing the whole tourist thing, so we showed up dressed accordingly. It was about 50 degrees in the studio. So, when you hear people joking about the temperature on Letterman, they aren't making it up. People in the audience applaud loudly for anything just to generate some body heat.

As it turns out the principle guest was Adam Sandler, promoting I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, one of the worst movies I've ever subjected myself to. Not in a theater, in the comfort of my living room. HBO probably.

Mike and Mike were also on, talking almost exclusively about the Yankees and Mets, so there was that.

But whenever I watch Letterman and he has a compelling guest or two, I think back and wonder why we got stuck with Adam Sandler.

[Olympic Fan]

Just to follow Jason's post about After Earth, the main headline on the EW website is its disastrous Friday showing -- After Earth not only failed to knock off Fast and Furious ... it trailed my favorite Now You See Me ...

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2013/06/01/box-office-friday-fast-furious-after-earth/

I think After Earth and Hangover are looking good for bottom 3 ... as someone who picked Gatsby, not looking so good there.

[JasonEvans]

It is still waaay too early to tell, but if I had to bet right now, I would go with After Earth, The Internship, and Hangover III as the bottom 3 of our list. If Pacific Rim or Lone Ranger get truly horrible reviews that kill any momentum for those films then I suppose it is possible they contend, but I don't think either of them will be nearly bad enough to do that.

-Jason "in fact, I think Pacific Rim will get excellent reviews" Evans

[BD80]

Not part of the original list but Grown Ups 2 is looming on the horizon.

Any movie starring Adam Sandler and Kevin James has a huge head start in any worst-movie poll. How Adam Sandler keeps getting green-lighted for movies is one of life's most enduring mysteries.

Is Salma Hayek in it? (Yes). De facto a movie worth seeing.

[JasonEvans]

After Earth's final weekend number was $27 million, a truly terrible opening for a film like this. It will make something like $60 mil when all is said and done. It is a mortal lock to be among the bottom 3 in our poll.

Meanwhile, Hangover III tumbled almost 62% from its opening weekend to make only $15.9 million in its second weekend. It stands at $88 mil in total boxoffice and seems like it will end up in the $110 million kind of range. Ugh!

-Jason "in many ways, this poll was a lot harder than the top 5 one" Evans

[davekay1971]

Is Salma Hayek in it? (Yes). De facto a movie worth seeing.

ie: From Dusk Till Dawn (although, unfortunately, that provides only a reason to watch the first 20 minutes of the movie...if you keep watching after that, it's on you...)

[dball]

OK a bit off topic, but sort of lowest movie related. While looking up unrelated topic, discovered interesting info:

Of this group, which Costner movie had the highest domestic gross? Tin Cup, Field of Dreams, Waterworld, The Untouchables or JFK?


Surprised a bit that it was the oft maligned Waterworld though I suppose that others of that group may have been "more profitable" given huge cost of watery epic.

[davekay1971]

OK a bit off topic, but sort of lowest movie related. While looking up unrelated topic, discovered interesting info:

Of this group, which Costner movie had the highest domestic gross? Tin Cup, Field of Dreams, Waterworld, The Untouchables or JFK?


Surprised a bit that it was the oft maligned Waterworld though I suppose that others of that group may have been "more profitable" given huge cost of watery epic.

Not only were the others more profitable, but the gross adjusted for inflation, not to mention the other ancillaries (rentals, DVD purchases, etc) undoubtedly make Untouchables far and away the most profitable. I'm not sure what the adjusted theater gross was (couldn't find it on boxofficemojo.com, which is my go-to site for movie income news), but that would be the more fair comparison for in-theater performance between Waterworld and Untouchables.

Now I must go find my DVD so I can watch the awesome train station sequence again...

[NashvilleDevil]

Not only were the others more profitable, but the gross adjusted for inflation, not to mention the other ancillaries (rentals, DVD purchases, etc) undoubtedly make Untouchables far and away the most profitable. I'm not sure what the adjusted theater gross was (couldn't find it on boxofficemojo.com, which is my go-to site for movie income news), but that would be the more fair comparison for in-theater performance between Waterworld and Untouchables.

Now I must go find my DVD so I can watch the awesome train station sequence again...

It's on Netflix now. Watched it a couple of weeks ago.

[Deslok]

Not only were the others more profitable, but the gross adjusted for inflation, not to mention the other ancillaries (rentals, DVD purchases, etc) undoubtedly make Untouchables far and away the most profitable. I'm not sure what the adjusted theater gross was (couldn't find it on boxofficemojo.com, which is my go-to site for movie income news), but that would be the more fair comparison for in-theater performance between Waterworld and Untouchables.

Now I must go find my DVD so I can watch the awesome train station sequence again...

I didn't look up the other movies, but Untouchables in inflation adjusted terms grossed 154 million per www.boxofficemojo.com (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic/never1.htm?adjust_yr=2013&p=.htm). It's #83 on the list of top grossing films that never made it to #1 in any weekend.

[camion]

I didn't look up the other movies, but Untouchables in inflation adjusted terms grossed 154 million per www.boxofficemojo.com (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic/never1.htm?adjust_yr=2013&p=.htm). It's #83 on the list of top grossing films that never made it to #1 in any weekend.

I looked at that list and it contains a lot of movies that I like so I considered the top 100 and picked the movies that I have watched at least 5 times (in any format). Here they are in a rough order of number of times watched (not necessarily the best movies, but the ones I have spent time watching).

Ferris Bueller's Day Off
Die Hard
Big
The Bourne Identity
Romancing the Stone
Over the Hedge
Dances with Wolves
George of the Jungle
Notting Hill
Sleepless in Seattle
Miss Congeniality
Good Will Hunting
Risky Business
War Games
Ruthless People
Trading Places
The Jewel of the Nile
The Green Mile
Fried Green Tomatoes


And now back to our program.

[NashvilleDevil]

Appears to be a lock for the bottom 3 along with After Earth ($46 million after two weeks). Now it depends on World War Z, The Lone Ranger and maybe Pacific Rim or Wolverine to round out the bottom 3.

Hooray! Let's all root for failure!

[Lord Ash]

Appears to be a lock for the bottom 3 along with After Earth ($46 million after two weeks). Now it depends on World War Z, The Lone Ranger and maybe Pacific Rim or Wolverine to round out the bottom 3.

Hooray! Let's all root for failure!

Yep, I had those two also. But then I had stinking Gatsby which did well. I think you might be out of luck with the four you mentioned, tho... all seem pretty ready to appeal to the mainstream...

[NashvilleDevil]

Yep, I had those two also. But then I had stinking Gatsby which did well. I think you might be out of luck with the four you mentioned, tho... all seem pretty ready to appeal to the mainstream...

Maybe it is the Hangover III that rounds out the bottom 3 but no one picked that one.

[Lord Ash]

I came down to Hangover III and Gatsby. Darn it... I had ZERO faith in Hangover and felt that people were really bored by the entire idea after the first one... go with your gut, darnit!

[JasonEvans]

Hangover III (currently at $102 mil) is going to end at less than $125 million. Gatsby is already at $136 mil.

The Internship's $17 mil opening weekend assures it will be in the bottom 3. After Earth is also a lock for the suckitude pile.

-Jason "something will probably do worse than Hangover III... a slew of bad reviews could really crush a non-franchise film" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

Right now it looks like After Earth and The Internship are holding steady for the bottom 3 race. Jason said on the biggest box office thread that 3 of his fellow critics have panned The Lone Ranger. Since it opens on the 4th and will have a long weekend to bring in box office will it make enough to avoid the bottom 3?

[dball]

Right now it looks like After Earth and The Internship are holding steady for the bottom 3 race. Jason said on the biggest box office thread that 3 of his fellow critics have panned The Lone Ranger. Since it opens on the 4th and will have a long weekend to bring in box office will it make enough to avoid the bottom 3?

Looks the 3 losers will be After Earth, The Internship and Pacific Rim. Shoot, nearly had it but looks as if Lone Ranger will edge Pacific Rim in total domestic. Still a few weeks to go but that's the way it looks now.

Thought the latest "Transformers" movie would break $100M at least but not yet. If they could have called it "Transformers Vs Godzilla" instead of "Pacific Rim", it might be contending for Top 5 :)

It could be the positive criticism the movie received actually hurt it. Better someone had written "Transformers on steroids" or "just another blow em up summer movie".

BTW, Pacific Rim is the only one on the loser list that I've actually seen and I enjoyed it. Great summer fare. Get the large popcorn and drink and stay cool. Though I was thinking Transformers versus Godzilla both before and during the movie.

[El_Diablo]

Looks the 3 losers will be After Earth, The Internship and Pacific Rim.

I wish! But alas, at the rate they are going, Pacific Rim should surpass the Lone Ranger soon enough.

The Lone Ranger opened 9 days earlier than Pacific Rim, so its totals are still slightly higher for now, but it looks like the ultimate winners are probably going to be those who selected The Internship, After Earth, and The Lone Ranger:

dball
Highlander
NashvilleDevil

[JasonEvans]

No question that Pac Rim will pass Lone Ranger. Heck, it won't even be close. After this weekend, Pac Rim is at $84.0 mil (it did $7.5 mil this weekend) while Lone Ranger is at $85.2 mil after a weekend in which it made just $1.6 mil. Pac Rim will pass Lone Ranger some time in the next week and seems likely to end up a good $10-20 mil higher by the time the summer is done. Those two won't even be close.

-Jason "Pac Rim will make $100 mil in the US, but its big money will come overseas where it will likely do $250+ mil" Evans

[SoCalDukeFan]

Why was R.I.P.D. not on your original list?

Major bomb.


SoCal

[El_Diablo]

Why was R.I.P.D. not on your original list?

Major bomb.


SoCal

The point here is not necessarily to pick the lowest grossing films overall--just the lowest grossing out of the films that were included in the "Top 5" poll.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think Jarhead meant to vote for R.I.P.D instead of Iron Man.

[Highlander]

Of the films in our list, I checked as of today, and here are the totals for the ones at the bottom:


Great Gatsby $145M
The Wolverine $120M
Hangover III $112M
Pacific Rim $98M
Lone Ranger $88M
After Earth $60M
The Internship $44M


I rounded up to the nearest million, but it doesn't really matter as the bottom three are pretty clear. Almost all of them at the bottom are out of the theatres by this point, so I think we can call it. Based on what I can see, the three of us to correctly pick all three lemons are:
dball, Highlander, and NashvilleDevil

Congrats to the other two biggest loser pickers. I'll drink a beer in your honor this weekend...

BTW, Feel free to correct me if I missed anyone or got my totals wrong.

[-jk]

The Washington Post's critic, Ann Hornaday, has a nice take on how to ruin a summer blockbuster in 8 easy steps. Well, not quite, but she does offer 8 lessons from summer movies (http://m.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/eight-lessons-from-summer-movies/2013/08/23/1fd658cc-09ce-11e3-9941-6711ed662e71_story.html).

-jk

[CameronBornAndBred]

After Earth's final weekend number was $27 million, a truly terrible opening for a film like this. It will make something like $60 mil when all is said and done. It is a mortal lock to be among the bottom 3 in our poll.

You'd figure that after a string of crappy movies that M. Knight would be treated like the plague by studios...but someone took a chance and made some money.
After Earth's $27 million sucked, but this weekend "The Visit" pulled in just under $26 million, and has a positive rating on RT. Made for a whopping five million bucks, someone is doing a mega happy dance this morning.
I wonder if this will be the beginning of a comeback for him.