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View Full Version : 2014 Brackets, against better judgment



Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-17-2013, 02:22 PM
So, I'm on record on this board in being extremely annoyed by the constant bracketing of the season, building odd expectations, creating a false sense of security or insecurity with programs and conferences, etc etc.

However... I just saw Joe's 2014 Bracket (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology) and I'm really surprised. I'm not going to get hot and bothered over the specifics, but for the record, he has Duke a #1, UNC a #3, and Notre Dame a #6...

And that's it.

3 teams for our first 16 team year with the new ACC. Does this reflect the national perception (such as it is) of our new super-conference next year? I'll be interested to see what things look like 11 months from now compared to this early prediction.

Insight?

Go Duke!

1 24 90
04-17-2013, 02:27 PM
I also see Syracuse as a 2 seed, Virginia as a 4 seed and Pitt as an 8 seed.

Kedsy
04-17-2013, 02:27 PM
So, I'm on record on this board in being extremely annoyed by the constant bracketing of the season, building odd expectations, creating a false sense of security or insecurity with programs and conferences, etc etc.

However... I just saw Joe's 2014 Bracket (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology) and I'm really surprised. I'm not going to get hot and bothered over the specifics, but for the record, he has Duke a #1, UNC a #3, and Notre Dame a #6...

And that's it.

3 teams for our first 16 team year with the new ACC. Does this reflect the national perception (such as it is) of our new super-conference next year? I'll be interested to see what things look like 11 months from now compared to this early prediction.

Insight?

Go Duke!

Well, he has Syracuse as a #2 seed and Virginia as a #4 and Pitt as a #8. He just doesn't seem to give them credit for being in the ACC (or more likely he has Virginia in the ACC but not Notre Dame).

freshmanjs
04-17-2013, 02:29 PM
So, I'm on record on this board in being extremely annoyed by the constant bracketing of the season, building odd expectations, creating a false sense of security or insecurity with programs and conferences, etc etc.

However... I just saw Joe's 2014 Bracket (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology) and I'm really surprised. I'm not going to get hot and bothered over the specifics, but for the record, he has Duke a #1, UNC a #3, and Notre Dame a #6...

And that's it.

3 teams for our first 16 team year with the new ACC. Does this reflect the national perception (such as it is) of our new super-conference next year? I'll be interested to see what things look like 11 months from now compared to this early prediction.

Insight?

Go Duke!


at quick glance, it looks like he also has syracuse as a #2, pitt #8, virginia #4,

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-17-2013, 02:33 PM
Ahem.... I am awesome.

Thanks.

Nugget
04-17-2013, 02:34 PM
I also can't help myself from paying attention to brackets, and agree it is extra-absurd to conduct this exercise before we know for sure who is actually going to the draft (and before we know where Wiggins is going).

Nevertheless, it would appear Lunardi is bit more pessimistic about the ACC next year than most other early sources.

I did a rough compliation of about 5 of the different "too early" rankings for next year put out by, among others, Jay Bilas, Andy Katz, MSNBC and USA Today.

Their "consensus" would result in something like 7-8 bids for the new ACC:

Duke (#1), N. Carolina (#2), Syracuse (#3), Virginia (#5), Notre Dame (#8), and then 2 or 3 of Maryland, Pitt, Florida St. or Miami in the #9-12 range, depending on what happens with Larkin and Wiggins, in particular.

Duvall
04-17-2013, 02:37 PM
Lunardi has Miami in his "First Four Out" ahead of Maryland, BC or Georgia Tech, which is tough to see.

burnspbesq
04-17-2013, 03:48 PM
God help us all if Lunardi is right about our first-round opponent and site.

Central, in Raleigh, with the Tarheel fans in the building?

That's the definition of "road game."

CDu
04-17-2013, 04:01 PM
A few things:

1. As has been noted, the website apparently doesn't realize that Notre Dame, Pitt, and Syracuse are joining the ACC next year. As such, the Big East has only 6 teams (and maybe less depending upon when the Catholic 7 depart) and the ACC has 6.

2. Bracketology was originally a representation of how, based on teams' resumes at that time, Lunardi felt they'd be seeded in the tournament. It was never meant to be a projection of where teams would eventually be seeded, just a "best guess" at where they'd be seeded if selections were made that day. A bracketology this early is essentially nothing more than a one-voter preseason poll, because there is literally no data on any of the teams for next year's resumes.

3. Lunardi is not a basketball expert. He is just a guy who was reasonably good at looking at resumes and identifying which teams would make the field. And even then, he wasn't amazing at it - just early to the game and good at self-promotion. But he's not a basketball expert. And since he's not a basketball expert, his poll shouldn't be taken any more seriously than any other media-based preseason poll. In fact, one might argue it should be taken less seriously, because it is a preseason poll with an N of 1 rather than an N of 50+.

CDu
04-17-2013, 04:02 PM
God help us all if Lunardi is right about our first-round opponent and site.

Central, in Raleigh, with the Tarheel fans in the building?

That's the definition of "road game."

That's almost certainly a cutesy pick to stir interest and generate web hits.

brevity
04-17-2013, 04:50 PM
God help us all if Lunardi is right about our first-round opponent and site.

Central, in Raleigh, with the Tarheel fans in the building?

That's the definition of "road game."


That's almost certainly a cutesy pick to stir interest and generate web hits.

Or, you know, reality. Maybe not the part about NCCU as the 16 seed, but one thing I learned from Joe's bracket is that Duke and UNC are once again favored to play in the same tournament site the first weekend. And there's not a lot of competition for that site: Memphis, Virginia, Tennessee.

A better option is seeing a Midwest team spill over into Raleigh. You can see Kentucky, Louisville, and 3 or 4 Big Ten teams vying for St. Louis and Milwaukee. Joe actually creates a favorable situation for Duke: Michigan and Michigan State in Milwaukee, Kentucky and Ohio State in St. Louis. He sends 2-seed Louisville to Orlando and 3-seed UNC to Raleigh. This seems unlikely, as Orlando is about 300 miles further away from the defending national champion. So, under this scenario, Louisville is Duke's best shot of avoiding a light-blue hostile work environment.

For this reason I always look forward to Joe's earliest bracket: the seeds are fluid, but the geography is fixed.

weezie
04-17-2013, 05:45 PM
God help us all if Lunardi is right about our first-round opponent and site.

Central, in Raleigh, with the Tarheel fans in the building?

That's the definition of "road game."

Ahh, that's nothing. Duke's been in that sitch plenty of times during the NCAAs.

MCFinARL
04-17-2013, 05:56 PM
Ahh, that's nothing. Duke's been in that sitch plenty of times during the NCAAs.

Yes, in fact any game Duke plays in the early rounds at a site where Carolina is also playing would essentially be a road game for Duke even if their opponent is from the West Coast.

Bluedog
04-17-2013, 06:05 PM
Ahh, that's nothing. Duke's been in that sitch plenty of times during the NCAAs.

Yeah, including this year in Indy. That was a very hostile road environment that I experienced first hand. Can't imagine anything much worse than that in the NCAA tournament really. Louisville fans were out in force.

uh_no
04-17-2013, 08:22 PM
Yeah, including this year in Indy. That was a very hostile road environment that I experienced first hand. Can't imagine anything much worse than that in the NCAA tournament really. Louisville fans were out in force.

perhaps like playing butler in indianapolis? not sure how a team could win under those circumstances :)

Duvall
04-17-2013, 08:25 PM
perhaps like playing butler in indianapolis? not sure how a team could win under those circumstances :)

The Butler crowd was opposed to Duke but not hostile, exactly.

theschwartz
04-17-2013, 09:40 PM
Yeah, including this year in Indy. That was a very hostile road environment that I experienced first hand. Can't imagine anything much worse than that in the NCAA tournament really. Louisville fans were out in force.


The Butler crowd was opposed to Duke but not hostile, exactly.

Yeah, I wouldn't call the Louisville crowd hostile either. Yeah, they were loud and VASTLY outnumbered the Duke fans, but they weren't obnoxious at all. Not a single cross word said to me, nor did I witness any negative interactions between Duke & Louisville fans. Probably the nicest opposing fan base I've ever been around.

matt1
04-17-2013, 11:42 PM
I also see Syracuse as a 2 seed, Virginia as a 4 seed and Pitt as an 8 seed.

It is a problem with the system, not with Lunardi. Notice that the Southern Conference is listed with two bids (a 15 and a 16). He gave the correct conference breakdown in his chat.

Bluedog
04-18-2013, 12:14 AM
Yeah, I wouldn't call the Louisville crowd hostile either. Yeah, they were loud and VASTLY outnumbered the Duke fans, but they weren't obnoxious at all. Not a single cross word said to me, nor did I witness any negative interactions between Duke & Louisville fans. Probably the nicest opposing fan base I've ever been around.

I had a very different experience than you, but it's probably just luck of the draw of where I sat. I spoke to some nice fans before and after, but during, I had some really obnoxious fans behind me. I was also at the national championship game against Butler and I found the fans and overall atmosphere to be completely different. This year felt much more like a hostile road environment than the game vs. Butler to me - not even close in my mind. Probably didn't help that it was a more "intimate" setup with only half the seats being sold and the court going the opposite direction with the rest of the stadium curtained off vs. a 70,000 person cavernous stadium.