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Duke31122
04-12-2013, 12:28 PM
I feel next year Marshall could have a bigger impact than most people expect. This year he was listed as 7'0 245lbs. If he can build an extra 10-15 lbs onto that frame in the off season as well as develop his skill set some more. He could have a true impact on our games next year. He was the number 35 overall recruit coming out of HS, not to mention he was NC Gatorade Player of the Year and an McDonalds All American. The talent is there. Also technically he is a Junior, but he redshirted his Freshman year so he now has 3 years to contribute in the middle. Him along with Hood, Jefferson, Parker, Hairston, and Murphy should make for a great rotation of bigs.

rsvman
04-12-2013, 12:34 PM
I certainly hope you're right.

When he's out there, he looks like a little like a giant Golden Retriever puppy, running this way and that, jumping up and down, just excited to be alive. I think for him to contribute in a meaningful way he's going to have to calm down a little.

bbosbbos
04-12-2013, 12:41 PM
I am not sure if Marshall can play major role in next season. I heard that big men usually develop a lot slower.

Kedsy
04-12-2013, 12:43 PM
I feel next year Marshall could have a bigger impact than most people expect. This year he was listed as 7'0 245lbs. If he can build an extra 10-15 lbs onto that frame in the off season as well as develop his skill set some more. He could have a true impact on our games next year. He was the number 35 overall recruit coming out of HS, not to mention he was NC Gatorade Player of the Year and an McDonalds All American. The talent is there. Also technically he is a Junior, but he redshirted his Freshman year so he now has 3 years to contribute in the middle. Him along with Hood, Jefferson, Parker, Hairston, and Murphy should make for a great rotation of bigs.

Marshall was ranked #34 by one service, but his overall RSCI rank was #61, meaning most other services didn't agree he was as strong a prospect as the one outlier did.

He will begin to have an impact on the game when the game slows down for him. In his brief time on the court this season, it was obvious the game was moving more quickly than he could react to it. He was slow to get into his defensive position, slow to react with help defense, slow to get in the proper position to set a screen, slow to understand where to be for rebounding position.

This is common with freshmen, and I have confidence that he will improve greatly over time. For one thing, whether or not he was really one of our top six or seven players (as Coach K said publicly) before he was injured, you'd think he must have been practicing significantly better than he played in games for Coach K to make such a comment. So I believe he'll get there.

Whether he gets there in 2013-14 is very difficult to say at this point. It's possible he'll have a breakthrough this off-season and step right into the starting lineup. More likely it will take time, and we can look forward to Marshall taking on a more prominent role in his junior and senior seasons.

CDu
04-12-2013, 12:48 PM
I feel next year Marshall could have a bigger impact than most people expect. This year he was listed as 7'0 245lbs. If he can build an extra 10-15 lbs onto that frame in the off season as well as develop his skill set some more. He could have a true impact on our games next year. He was the number 35 overall recruit coming out of HS, not to mention he was NC Gatorade Player of the Year and an McDonalds All American. The talent is there. Also technically he is a Junior, but he redshirted his Freshman year so he now has 3 years to contribute in the middle. Him along with Hood, Jefferson, Parker, Hairston, and Murphy should make for a great rotation of bigs.

He was actually the #61 recruit out of high school per RSCI (which is a composite of all the major scouting services). And we know that after the top-25 recruiting rankings are a crapshoot.

I can't think of very many players who played so little and so ineffectively one year who then came in and were major contributors the next year. Kelly is probably the closest comp, and even Kelly played double the minutes and was much more productive. And even Kelly only averaged 20.1mpg, 6.6ppg, and 3.7rpg in his next season.

I think there is potential in Marshall. He certainly has the size, quickness, and leaping ability to eventually make an impact. But he was simply not close to ready to play at an ACC level this year, and I think expecting much more than 10-15mpg from him next year is taking a VERY optimistic view.

Duke31122
04-12-2013, 12:50 PM
Marshall was ranked #34 by one service, but his overall RSCI rank was #61, meaning most other services didn't agree he was as strong a prospect as the one outlier did.

He will begin to have an impact on the game when the game slows down for him. In his brief time on the court this season, it was obvious the game was moving more quickly than he could react to it. He was slow to get into his defensive position, slow to react with help defense, slow to get in the proper position to set a screen, slow to understand where to be for rebounding position.

This is common with freshmen, and I have confidence that he will improve greatly over time. For one thing, whether or not he was really one of our top six or seven players (as Coach K said publicly) before he was injured, you'd think he must have been practicing significantly better than he played in games for Coach K to make such a comment. So I believe he'll get there.

Whether he gets there in 2013-14 is very difficult to say at this point. It's possible he'll have a breakthrough this off-season and step right into the starting lineup. More likely it will take time, and we can look forward to Marshall taking on a more prominent role in his junior and senior seasons.

That is true, big men do develop slower. The other thing is the game will slow down for him once he gets regular playing time, which I think he will be a regular sub next year. The starting 5 is probably Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, and Jefferson. I figure he will rotate in along with Hairston to give us depth. He should be solid for us. I'm not expecting anything spectacular, but a 7'0 260 man in the middle would be a great thing to have.

jcastranio
04-12-2013, 01:17 PM
I think Marshall will be better and more effective next year. I think that, in games against teams with strong, powerful back-to-the-basket post play, Marshall will be a key player. Still not a big scoring threat, but a key player. Against teams with smaller, quicker lineups, I see Marshall's minutes drop dramatically. That may not be the case his final two years, but next year ... Part of that will be his learning curve playing against smaller, quicker line-ups and part of that will simply be that we will have a better option to put on the court against smaller line-ups.

You can't develop size.

jimsumner
04-12-2013, 02:01 PM
The sample size is pretty small for over-arching conclusions. He missed all of the pre-season with a broken foot and never got back up to speed.

After that, he played in two contexts. Sometimes, he would come in for Mason, usually a possession or two, built around a media timeout, just long enough for Mason to catch his breath. Marshall's job was to be a place-holder. Don't make a mistake.

Hard to get any rhythm in that role.

Or, he would come in at the end of an already decided game, in which Duke was burning clock and the crowd was either shouting for Duke to put in Todd Zafirovski or shouting for Zafirovski to "shoot it, shoot it," every time he touched the ball.

Hard to get any rhythm in that role.

In other words, he never really played long enough in a conventional game for us to get an accurate read. And he was backing up the nation's best big man, so how much did we want him to play?

Yes, the game will get easier for him when he gets more comfortable and it slows down for him. The same can be said for Jefferson and Murphy.

Marshall isn't an uber athlete like his brothers. He's more of a traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post player. He won't be finishing fast breaks or jumping to Jupiter to grab errant lobs.

But his work ethic and smarts have been praised by his coaches and teammates, which leads me to believe that he'll develop into a solid ACC center, maybe better than solid.

I sure wouldn't write him off.

azzefkram
04-12-2013, 02:39 PM
The sample size is pretty small for over-arching conclusions. He missed all of the pre-season with a broken foot and never got back up to speed.

After that, he played in two contexts. Sometimes, he would come in for Mason, usually a possession or two, built around a media timeout, just long enough for Mason to catch his breath. Marshall's job was to be a place-holder. Don't make a mistake.

Hard to get any rhythm in that role.

Or, he would come in at the end of an already decided game, in which Duke was burning clock and the crowd was either shouting for Duke to put in Todd Zafirovski or shouting for Zafirovski to "shoot it, shoot it," every time he touched the ball.

Hard to get any rhythm in that role.

In other words, he never really played long enough in a conventional game for us to get an accurate read. And he was backing up the nation's best big man, so how much did we want him to play?

Yes, the game will get easier for him when he gets more comfortable and it slows down for him. The same can be said for Jefferson and Murphy.

Marshall isn't an uber athlete like his brothers. He's more of a traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post player. He won't be finishing fast breaks or jumping to Jupiter to grab errant lobs.

But his work ethic and smarts have been praised by his coaches and teammates, which leads me to believe that he'll develop into a solid ACC center, maybe better than solid.

I sure wouldn't write him off.

I couldn't agree more. I think that MPIII will be a solid contributor next year and a pleasant surprise to many on this board. Given the projected/guessed starters at the 1 through 4, he shouldn't have to shoulder much.

timmy c
04-12-2013, 02:51 PM
The real question is, will we see MPIII in the roll he does best? You know, holding the mic and clowning for the camera in blue devil planet videos! Man he is so funny!

MCFinARL
04-12-2013, 02:52 PM
The real question is, will we see MPIII in the roll he does best? You know, holding the mic and clowning for the camera in blue devil planet videos! Man he is so funny!

Just let them try to keep him away from that mic! I doubt it can be done.

BD80
04-12-2013, 02:57 PM
... You can't develop size.

Well, Sean May used a Krispy Kreme regimen to develop considerable size ... Oh, you mean height


The sample size is pretty small for over-arching conclusions. He missed all of the pre-season with a broken foot and never got back up to speed. ...

... And he was backing up the nation's best big man, so how much did we want him to play?

Yes, the game will get easier for him when he gets more comfortable and it slows down for him. The same can be said for Jefferson and Murphy.

Marshall isn't an uber athlete like his brothers. He's more of a traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post player. He won't be finishing fast breaks or jumping to Jupiter to grab errant lobs.

But his work ethic and smarts have been praised by his coaches and teammates, which leads me to believe that he'll develop into a solid ACC center, maybe better than solid.

I sure wouldn't write him off.

It also appears he won't be burdened with unrealistic expectations ...

What amuses me is how similar the discussion of Marshall is to the discussions that appeared on the board prior to the second half of Zoubek's senior season. I'm not saying he is the next Zoubek, or that his path will be similar.

Like Zoubek, Marshall offers attributes that others on the team do not have, and which may may set him apart from ACC competition. At some point, the discussion may flip from whether Marshall can match-up against others, to whether others can match up against Marshall.

moonpie23
04-12-2013, 03:08 PM
the officials have PLENTY of Plumlee fouls left over from MP1 and MP2.....in fact, Marshall just fouled out of the season opener....


all kidding aside, MP3 will have to work on his footwork and timing........AND handling a lot of minutes learning how NOT to be out of position...

the guy is a specimen......if he can shed the jitters, he might just surprise everyone...

jimsumner
04-12-2013, 03:28 PM
If one has followed Duke basketball for any period of time, one can come up with plenty of examples of big men who started off slowly but developed nicely. Alaa Abdelnaby and Miles Plumlee played 191 and 165 minutes respectively as freshmen and both developed into first-round NBA picks. Eric Meek played 143 as a freshman and he became a second-round pick. The Brian Zoubek everyone now reveres played all of 235.

But he had a bad foot. Imagine if Marshall had the same malady.:)

Let's go outside the Duke realm for a minute.

Here are the freshman stats of a non-Duke 7-footer.

15 GP
45 MP
7-13 FG
5-9 FT
1.3 ppg
1.4 rpg
7 fouls
0 assists, 3 turnovers

Anyone want to guess the name of this clumsy, clueless kid, clearly heading for obscurity?

Pat yourself on the back if you guessed Jeff Withey.

Withey played 6.2 mpg as a sophomore, btw.

Yes, he was playing behind some talent. As was Marshall Plumlee.

I'm not remotely suggesting Marshall Plumlee will turn out to be as good as Withey, although that would be nice. But I'm sure a lot of Kansas fans were ready to write him off early in his career. Writing off Marshall Plumlee at a comparable point makes about as much sense.

OldSchool
04-12-2013, 03:30 PM
Jim Sumner is right in his comments above. It doesn't make sense to try to evaluate Marshall's ability to contribute based mainly on his stats for this year.

It looked to me that after the foot injury Marshall's bodyfat percentage went up (natural while recovering from injury) and he lost a bit of nimbleness. He didn't look to me like he was moving as well as before the injury.

I don't think Marshall needs to gain a lot of weight in the offseason. Of course, he should continue to try to get stronger. I would suggest working on quickness and agility along with other points people have mentioned above. He needs to be able to run the floor well to fit in well with the group of athletes we will have on the floor next year. Mason was very good at running the floor and Marshall should look to Mason's example in that regard.

If we do not get a big man transfer, I expect Marshall to start a number of games. With occasional foul trouble and inconsistent play, I would expect Amile and Josh to also get lots of minutes at the 5, and in some games to start ahead of Marshall.

Kedsy
04-12-2013, 03:38 PM
Withey played 6.2 mpg as a sophomore, btw.

This is the most relevant point for the current discussion. I don't think many Duke fans are writing Marshall off forever. The question at hand is how much will he contribute next year, his sophomore season? I don't think any of the guys you mention ended up as major contributors in their sophomore seasons.

If Marshall plays 6 mpg, like Withey did, I think that would jibe with many people's expectations for him, with that total increasing to rotation and/or starter's minutes in his junior and senior seasons. I also think we'd all hope for him to make the jump sooner and be a starter next year, but hope and belief are not often the same thing. Obviously we won't know how much off-season progress he makes until the off-season is over.

Ichabod Drain
04-12-2013, 03:45 PM
This is the most relevant point for the current discussion. I don't think many Duke fans are writing Marshall off forever. The question at hand is how much will he contribute next year, his sophomore season? I don't think any of the guys you mention ended up as major contributors in their sophomore seasons.

If Marshall plays 6 mpg, like Withey did, I think that would jibe with many people's expectations for him, with that total increasing to rotation and/or starter's minutes in his junior and senior seasons. I also think we'd all hope for him to make the jump sooner and be a starter next year, but hope and belief are not often the same thing. Obviously we won't know how much off-season progress he makes until the off-season is over.

The only difference was Withey was playing behind the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson so there wasn't a huge need for him. We don't have that luxury. Though i agree 6-8 mpg for Marshall would be good development.

azzefkram
04-12-2013, 03:49 PM
This is the most relevant point for the current discussion. I don't think many Duke fans are writing Marshall off forever. The question at hand is how much will he contribute next year, his sophomore season? I don't think any of the guys you mention ended up as major contributors in their sophomore seasons.

If Marshall plays 6 mpg, like Withey did, I think that would jibe with many people's expectations for him, with that total increasing to rotation and/or starter's minutes in his junior and senior seasons. I also think we'd all hope for him to make the jump sooner and be a starter next year, but hope and belief are not often the same thing. Obviously we won't know how much off-season progress he makes until the off-season is over.

The only monkey wrench I'd throw into this is Marshall will be a redshirt sophomore.

CDu
04-12-2013, 03:50 PM
This is the most relevant point for the current discussion. I don't think many Duke fans are writing Marshall off forever. The question at hand is how much will he contribute next year, his sophomore season? I don't think any of the guys you mention ended up as major contributors in their sophomore seasons.

If Marshall plays 6 mpg, like Withey did, I think that would jibe with many people's expectations for him, with that total increasing to rotation and/or starter's minutes in his junior and senior seasons. I also think we'd all hope for him to make the jump sooner and be a starter next year, but hope and belief are not often the same thing. Obviously we won't know how much off-season progress he makes until the off-season is over.

Yeah, I agree. I don't think anyone is saying that Marshall can't develop into a productive player by his junior and senior years. I think folks are just saying that it's unlikely that he'll be terribly productive next year.

If Marshall can give us 8-12 solid mpg next year, I'll have every confidence that he'll be an impact player by his junior or senior year. But I think it's unfair to him to burden him with the expectation that he'll suddenly jump to a productive player next year.


The only monkey wrench I'd throw into this is Marshall will be a redshirt sophomore.

That 6.2 mpg was in Withey's redshirt sophomore year, too. Like Marshall, Withey redshirted his freshman year (in Withey's case due to transfer). Like Marshall, Withey played ~2-3 mpg on a team with a senior all-conference center. Now, Withey was more productive than Marshall was in his similarly-limited time as a redshirt freshman (shooting over 50% from the field, rebounding and blocking shots at a higher rate). But that's neither here nor there. The point is that Withey (in spite of being more productive than Marshall) still only managed 6.2 mpg as a redshirt sophomore. As a redshirt junior he jumped to 25 mpg and became a defensive force.

That's the kind of timeline I expect for Marshall. I expect him to struggle a bit next year and then find his role as a redshirt junior.

lotusland
04-12-2013, 04:32 PM
I predict Marshall will be all ACC first team his senior year and next year he'll take a big step in that direction. One piece of the puzzle for almost every Duke big man is learning to bang in the post without constantly fouling. I don't think Marshall can be expected to do that next year. We had issues with depth in the post this year even when Ryan was healthy so next year it will be a more prominent weakness even if Marshall is ready to be the starting center (I think he will).

I know Josh will be a solid reserve but he is also foul prone. If we don't pick up a grad student transfer I actually think Alex may be a better option than Amile to steal a few minutes or burn some fouls if necessary.

FireOgilvie
04-12-2013, 06:56 PM
Marshall Plumlee season/career stats:

50 min (over 19 games)
2 pts (1-8 fg)
11 rebounds
0% free throw (0-8)
1 assist
5 PFs, 5 TOs
3 blocks, 3 steals


Just some numbers to add to the discussion.

Duvall
04-12-2013, 06:58 PM
Marshall Plumlee season/career stats:

50 min (over 19 games)
2 pts (1-8 fg)
11 rebounds
0% free throw (0-8)
1 assist
5 PFs, 5 TOs
3 blocks, 3 steals


Just some numbers to add to the discussion.

So that's 8.8 rebounds/40 minutes? Not too shabby.

CDu
04-12-2013, 07:45 PM
So that's 8.8 rebounds/40 minutes? Not too shabby.

Sort of "meh," especially when you consider that many of those minutes came against walkons.

subzero02
04-12-2013, 08:19 PM
The only difference was Withey was playing behind the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson so there wasn't a huge need for him. We don't have that luxury. Though i agree 6-8 mpg for Marshall would be good development.

Exactly... If we had either one of the morris twins or robinson I wiould be buying tickets to the 2014 final four

ncexnyc
04-13-2013, 02:57 PM
Oddball: Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
Looks like some of you need to tune into what Oddball has to say. Last year’s team went 30-6, a quick look back to the preseason and we were faced with the following questions.

Was there a chemistry issue on the team?

Could we survive the gauntlet of games during the Battle 4 Atlantis and the ACC vs. Big Ten Challenge?

Would Quinn exceed his spotty freshman season and could we actually lay it all off on his previous knee injury?

Would Seth be able to take his game to an even higher level? Would he even make it through the season due to his mysterious lower leg injury?

What would Rasheed bring as a freshman? Could he give Alex some help at the SF spot?

Could Mason finally prove to the world that he was more than just unfilled potential?

Was Ryan going to up his game on both ends of the court?

Would the Duke faithful finally show some love to Tyler and not question why he was on the court as much as he was?

Josh Hairston ready for taking the next step?

Did we luck out with landing Amile Jefferson?

Well what we saw was that chemistry was better this year. The roles were more defined and I honestly believe Mason, Ryan, and Seth stepped up as seniors should. Both in their play and the leadership roles they filled.

We blitzed the competition going 4-0, during one of the toughest four game stretches any team faced last year.

It certainly appeared that Quinn’s play during his freshman season was impacted by his previous knee injury. We saw a much improved player on both ends of the floor.

Seth toughed it out. The numbers show he clearly did have a lingering leg injury, but despite this he posted very solid numbers
.
Rasheed exceeded all of our wildest expectations. Alex was never able to crack the rotation due to Rasheed’s outstanding play.

Mason Plumlee, had a breakout season. His play had him mentioned for NPOY honors.

We all saw what Ryan meant to the team when he went down. The numbers on both ends of the court were there for everyone to see. An excellent multi-dimensional player who could do it all.

WOW! The Tyler Thornton love fest at the end of the season was a sight to behold on this board. I guess that Coach K guy does know something about talent and winners.

Josh did a solid job as part of the platoon that filled in for Ryan. The man has guts as he isn’t afraid to stick his body in there in order to take a charge.

Amile “The Eel” Jefferson. We were quite lucky to nab this young man. He proved his worth when Ryan went down and his nose for the ball has a lot of us dreaming of bigger and better things for this kid.

So while there were a lot of questions prior to last year, especially coming off the Lehigh disaster, we had a really outstanding year.

Now looking ahead, we have just one question mark on a team that is loaded with All-American level talent and people are wringing their hands in despair. I’d say some of you have too much time on your hands and are letting your imagination run wild with too many negative vibes.

Henderson
04-13-2013, 03:40 PM
So, distilling all the expert commentary, it comes down to this:

1. Marshall Plumlee may get better as other big men have.
2. Marshall Plumlee needs to get better to be a more important member of the team.
2. If Marshall Plumlee gets better, he'll be a more important member of the team.
3. It's possible Marshall Plumlee won't get better.

About right?

This was his second year in the program, and he played fewer minutes than the other bigs mentioned here who played limited freshman minutes but developed into strong NBA style presences. Danny Ferry, Christian Laettner, and Elton Brand (for example) were outstanding as freshman. Marshall was not. That on a team that could have used another strong presence in the paint. K's evaluation was obviously that he was not ready for prime time. Maybe he'll become ready for prime time; maybe not. That's about as far as reasonable prognostication can go IMO. Let us see. I hope but don't necessarily expect.

BD80
04-13-2013, 03:40 PM
Oddball: Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? ...

Probably an obscure reference for many, but I find it righteous: not a stretch to label last year's team Kelly's Heroes.

Reminds me of a conversation heard in the home team's huddle in chappa heeya recently:

"You're the guys who are supposed to be fighting this battle, and you don't even know where in the hell it is! Well I'll *tell* you where it is! It's 8 miles beyond where you thought it was ..."

And one between coaches on the Duke bench:

"Who is that bunch of refugees over there?
The band.
The band? What do we need a band for?
Have a little faith. They're beautiful people."

jimsumner
04-13-2013, 06:54 PM
So, distilling all the expert commentary, it comes down to this:

1. Marshall Plumlee may get better as other big men have.
2. Marshall Plumlee needs to get better to be a more important member of the team.
2. If Marshall Plumlee gets better, he'll be a more important member of the team.
3. It's possible Marshall Plumlee won't get better.

About right?

This was his second year in the program, and he played fewer minutes than the other bigs mentioned here who played limited freshman minutes but developed into strong NBA style presences. Danny Ferry, Christian Laettner, and Elton Brand (for example) were outstanding as freshman. Marshall was not. That on a team that could have used another strong presence in the paint. K's evaluation was obviously that he was not ready for prime time. Maybe he'll become ready for prime time; maybe not. That's about as far as reasonable prognostication can go IMO. Let us see. I hope but don't necessarily expect.

Whoa Nellie. You've referenced three guys who went on to become national players of the year. That's the standard to which we're holding Duke big men?

[as an aside, Ferry averaged just under 6 ppg as a freshman. Outstanding? But I digress]

And is it possible that breaking a foot and missing the entire pre-season kinda, maybe, sorta had something to do with the limited PT?

sagegrouse
04-13-2013, 08:16 PM
So, distilling all the expert commentary, it comes down to this:

1. Marshall Plumlee may get better as other big men have.
2. Marshall Plumlee needs to get better to be a more important member of the team.
2. If Marshall Plumlee gets better, he'll be a more important member of the team.
3. It's possible Marshall Plumlee won't get better.

About right?

This was his second year in the program, and he played fewer minutes than the other bigs mentioned here who played limited freshman minutes but developed into strong NBA style presences. Danny Ferry, Christian Laettner, and Elton Brand (for example) were outstanding as freshman. Marshall was not. That on a team that could have used another strong presence in the paint. K's evaluation was obviously that he was not ready for prime time. Maybe he'll become ready for prime time; maybe not. That's about as far as reasonable prognostication can go IMO. Let us see. I hope but don't necessarily expect.

As I have said to the point of being tedious, the least respected player in college hoops is the guy who rarely got off the bench the previous season, even if his arrival was highly anticipated. MP3's stats from this year mean... nothing at all... except that he rarely got off the bench. Such fragmentary playing time can't be extrapolated into anything meaningful. If he were to average 20 mins. per game next year, we would probably see decent rebounding and maybe even some scoring. But the big question is whether he will get that much of a chance to play.

And "getting a chance to play" means outperforming the other candidates for center, such as Amile, or at least playing well enough in practice that he is in the rotation. I expect that MP3 will earn his minutes for next year, but it isn't a certainty.

Sagegrouse

langdonfan
04-14-2013, 05:17 PM
Let's all take a step back and remember that before this season started Coach K saw Marshall as "one of our six best players". This was largely a lost year for Marshall because of the time he lost early on. Quinn Cook experienced a similar situation, to a lesser extent, as a freshman. We saw more flashes of his ability because he was forced to play more due to a lack of depth at point. I think Marshall has a chance to be our best rebounder, and a solid interior defender next year.

tommy
04-14-2013, 06:08 PM
Let's all take a step back and remember that before this season started Coach K saw Marshall as "one of our six best players". This was largely a lost year for Marshall because of the time he lost early on. Quinn Cook experienced a similar situation, to a lesser extent, as a freshman. We saw more flashes of his ability because he was forced to play more due to a lack of depth at point. I think Marshall has a chance to be our best rebounder, and a solid interior defender next year.

I really, really REALLY wish K had never made the comment about Marshall being in the top 6 or whatever the exact quote was. Because I'm 98% sure he didn't mean it. And the degree to which many on these boards have taken it literally, taken it as gospel, and formed opinions accordingly even when they are not at all supported by what the eyeballs told us re: Marshall's readiness to contribute, well, I just wish everyone would let that comment go. Much less gnashing of teeth that way all around, including mine.

Bluedevil114
04-14-2013, 07:01 PM
If Marshall is ready to work and get on the court we will be fine. Coach K realizes that we need a presence at center if we are going to be special next year. He will have Marshall signed up for all the big man camps and his last conversation to Marshall will be all the things he needs to work on over the summer. Marshall will be fine. He does need to hit those free throws though. He never looked comfortable on the line. Always hard and long on his shot.

Fish80
04-14-2013, 08:55 PM
Marshall will make a giant leap for all Duke fans. Hold on to your horses, this is gonna be a fun ride.

CDu
04-14-2013, 09:06 PM
I really, really REALLY wish K had never made the comment about Marshall being in the top 6 or whatever the exact quote was. Because I'm 98% sure he didn't mean it. And the degree to which many on these boards have taken it literally, taken it as gospel, and formed opinions accordingly even when they are not at all supported by what the eyeballs told us re: Marshall's readiness to contribute, well, I just wish everyone would let that comment go. Much less gnashing of teeth that way all around, including mine.

I agree. If we never heard that quote (and I've never actually seen or heard the alleged quote - just a second/third-hand reference by Bilas at some point), then all the evidence we have from Marshall would be:
- looked overmatched at the McDonald's game
- clearly not ready during his freshman year (to the point of being redshirted)
- looked awkward, out of sync, and underwhelming in very limited time as a sophomore

Only this alleged comment suggests that Marshall will be anywhere near ready next year. We know that Coach K will never talk ill of his players (always talking them up). All the evidence seems to suggest that whatever was (or was not) said about Marshall as a top-6 player is just an example of Coach K talking up his players (like the comments about Murphy as a 4-year starter, and Murphy as the starter this year).

Olympic Fan
04-14-2013, 09:28 PM
The best comparison to Marshall is, I think, his older brother Miles.

I know that Marshall got a redshirt year at Duke, but Miles repeated year in high school, so they were both basically the same age as freshmen playing at Duke.

Miles played 165 minutes as a freshman, averaging 1.8 points and 1.4 rebounds. He actually averaged almost exactly the same rebounds per 40 minutes as his brother (8.5).

I know Miles played a bit more than Marshall (165 minutes vs. 50 minutes), but he didn't have to overcome a broken foot preseason. Plus, Marshall was on a team that had an All-American center and a three-year starter at power forward. When Miles was a freshman, Duke was desperate for size -- Zoubek had foot problems and was only able to play 477 minutes total ... the only other post player was Lance Thomas (who averaged all of 3.6 rebounds a game) ... actually, Singler got most of his minutes in the post because there wasn't anybody else.

But a healthy Marshall on that team and I think he at least matches Miles' production.

Miles, of course, matured into a solid -- if not quite great -- big man. I think he was hurt his last two years by playing with his brother -- their skills didn't really mesh and Mason was better and more deserving of playing time.

I don't think that Miles is an unfair projection for Marshall. I think he and Miles are on a similar track ... Mason, of course, was the most talented of the three. His development was quite different.

I know that's not encouraging for those who want t think Marshall will explode as a sophomore and be a solid, starting big man. But I think his outlook is better than those who want to dismiss him as a never-will-be player.

Newton_14
04-14-2013, 09:33 PM
I agree. If we never heard that quote (and I've never actually seen or heard the alleged quote - just a second/third-hand reference by Bilas at some point), then all the evidence we have from Marshall would be:
- looked overmatched at the McDonald's game
- clearly not ready during his freshman year (to the point of being redshirted)
- looked awkward, out of sync, and underwhelming in very limited time as a sophomore

Only this alleged comment suggests that Marshall will be anywhere near ready next year. We know that Coach K will never talk ill of his players (always talking them up). All the evidence seems to suggest that whatever was (or was not) said about Marshall as a top-6 player is just an example of Coach K talking up his players (like the comments about Murphy as a 4-year starter, and Murphy as the starter this year).

The quote was made by K during his daily Duke Basketball Report 3 minute radio segment with Bob Harris last November shortly after Marshall's foot injury. The DBR clips play each morning and afternoon during the season on local radio 620 AM. (Cut does one for Football during FB season as well). They store those on GoDuke.com. I posted it in a thread earlier in the season and can dig it up again and post it here for the doubters if needed.

Now, I have no idea at all if Coach K put that out there because it was true, or if he put it out there as a motivational point for Marshall. I could believe either version. I am on record as stating that the game was too fast for MP3 this past season, and he was too hyper. However I will reiterate that most of his over zealous mistakes came on offense not defense. I think his defense was better than what you give him credit for. I also strongly agree with others that looking at his stats is a collossal waste of time. He simply did not play enough during "normal game conditions" for the stats to mean anything.

I have seen him play in a different setting and he actually has really solid post moves, and really nice footwork on the block. Better than both of this brothers actually, with the footwork, and post moves. However, that was in a summer league setting. The competition was good, but the game pressure in that setting does not even begin to approach even a regular season game against an early season cupcake. Marshall is going to have to develop to where he can be as relaxed in an ACC game as he was in that summer leagure setting. He clearly has a ways to go to get to that level. I do feel he can and will get there, but the question is how soon.

At this point, I tend to believe his defensive development will come at a quicker pace than his offensive development. The good thing is, that is perfectly fine given the offensive firepower that will surround him in the coming season. Any offense Marshall could give would be gravy. When we are in desperate need of a bucket down low, the ball will go to Jabari on the block.

If Marshall can develop his defense enough to be a good defender and rebounder, it will be good enough to help this team be great. When the ball tips in October/November that is all I will be watching for from Marshall. As of right now, I do not have him in my projected starting lineup. I lean towards that happening in his Junior season, but, I would certainly not rule out the possibility that he does develop enough defensively over the off-season where he can play 15-22ish minutes per game and help the team.

It is just going to be one of those "wait and see" deals. Let's hope we are all pleasantly surprised.

Dukeface88
04-14-2013, 11:07 PM
But a healthy Marshall on that team and I think he at least matches Miles' production.

Miles, of course, matured into a solid -- if not quite great -- big man. I think he was hurt his last two years by playing with his brother -- their skills didn't really mesh and Mason was better and more deserving of playing time.

I don't think that Miles is an unfair projection for Marshall. I think he and Miles are on a similar track ... Mason, of course, was the most talented of the three. His development was quite different.

I know that's not encouraging for those who want t think Marshall will explode as a sophomore and be a solid, starting big man. But I think his outlook is better than those who want to dismiss him as a never-will-be player.

Personally, I'd be pretty happy with having Sophmore Miles next year. 5 and 5 in 15-20 minutes a game would be nothing to sneeze at, considering he'll be the fifth option pretty much any time he's on the floor.

gep
04-14-2013, 11:53 PM
If Marshall can develop his defense enough to be a good defender and rebounder, it will be good enough to help this team be great. When the ball tips in October/November that is all I will be watching for from Marshall. As of right now, I do not have him in my projected starting lineup. I lean towards that happening in his Junior season, but, I would certainly not rule out the possibility that he does develop enough defensively over the off-season where he can play 15-22ish minutes per game and help the team.

It is just going to be one of those "wait and see" deals. Let's hope we are all pleasantly surprised.

Exhibit A (for underlined part)... ZOUBS!!!

Kedsy
04-15-2013, 02:07 AM
Coach K realizes that we need a presence at center if we are going to be special next year.

Why do you think he realizes that? I'd bet, with all the talent we'll have next season, that Coach K realizes we are going to be special whether we have a "presence" at center or not.

UrinalCake
04-15-2013, 09:47 AM
The player that keeps coming into my head is Taymon Domzalski. He had good size (6-10, 250) and modest expectations coming in, and played behind the more experienced Newton at first. Then he struggled with nagging injuries and seemed to land in Coach K's doghouse. At one point Coach K said that he was a beast in practice and nobody could stop him (sound a little familiar?) but he just couldn't put it together on the court and thus rarely got off the bench.

I'm hoping Marshall finds a different path. He could definitely be a key piece to us being a contender next season.

FerryFor50
04-15-2013, 10:36 AM
The player that keeps coming into my head is Taymon Domzalski. He had good size (6-10, 250) and modest expectations coming in, and played behind the more experienced Newton at first. Then he struggled with nagging injuries and seemed to land in Coach K's doghouse. At one point Coach K said that he was a beast in practice and nobody could stop him (sound a little familiar?) but he just couldn't put it together on the court and thus rarely got off the bench.

I'm hoping Marshall finds a different path. He could definitely be a key piece to us being a contender next season.

The main issue with this comparison is that Greg Newton != Mason Plumlee.

Marshall will get chances next year due to the lack of skilled bigs. What he does with those chances is still up for grabs... as others have mentioned, he was derailed by injury last season, so it's real hard to extrapolate his performance last season into anything for next season.

jimsumner
04-15-2013, 10:48 AM
The player that keeps coming into my head is Taymon Domzalski. He had good size (6-10, 250) and modest expectations coming in, and played behind the more experienced Newton at first. Then he struggled with nagging injuries and seemed to land in Coach K's doghouse. At one point Coach K said that he was a beast in practice and nobody could stop him (sound a little familiar?) but he just couldn't put it together on the court and thus rarely got off the bench.

I'm hoping Marshall finds a different path. He could definitely be a key piece to us being a contender next season.

Domzalski was a consensus top-20 recruit. Expectations were quite high for him. He started alongside Newton for much of his freshman season, 1996. He was quite foul prone and lost his starting job to Carmen Wallace, until Wallace tore up a knee. He did make the ACC All-Freshmen team. Looked like a keeper.

He played sparingly as a sophomore due to knee issues. Probably should have been redshirted but he was a superb student and wasn't interested in delaying his post-playing career.

Started some games as a junior when Brand broke a foot. Lost his starting spot after a miserable performance at UNC.

Never got it back.

Back-up as a senior. With Elton Brand, Shane Battier and Chris Burgess on the roster, lots of people would have been.

As I said, very good student. Eventually graduated from Duke med school.

I'm not sure he's a good analog for Marshall. Much more high-profile coming out of high school.

A better analog? Maybe Eric Meek. Maybe Clay Buckley, if Buckley had been blessed with a better back.

Lord Ash
04-15-2013, 11:06 AM
Didn't Eric suffer through a really terrible car accident in high school?

I just don't get people who are down on Marshall. If you have EVER played a sport, you know that it is impossible to get into any sort of groove playing a minute here and a minute there. It is VERY easy to press, to force action, because you know you only have a minute to impress.

I am not really worried. Marshall is a legit seven footer McDonald's All-American "stay in the paint" center going into his third year in the Duke program with a lot of NBA talent in the family. I am sure he will be able to provide some size and rebounding in the center. Give the guy a chance.

jimsumner
04-15-2013, 11:20 AM
Didn't Eric suffer through a really terrible car accident in high school?

I just don't get people who are down on Marshall. If you have EVER played a sport, you know that it is impossible to get into any sort of groove playing a minute here and a minute there. It is VERY easy to press, to force action, because you know you only have a minute to impress.

I am not really worried. Marshall is a legit seven footer McDonald's All-American "stay in the paint" center going into his third year in the Duke program with a lot of NBA talent in the family. I am sure he will be able to provide some size and rebounding in the center. Give the guy a chance.

Meek was hit by a car while he was jogging. Knee damage, rib damage, collar bone, nasty stuff.

Spent the summer before coming to Duke recovering from that accident, rather than doing basketball stuff.

Duke planned on redshirting him until Crawford Palmer decided to transfer to Dartmouth.

In retrospect, he should still have been redshirted. Don't get me wrong. He was healthy that season. But his basketball development had been put on hold for so long, that he really didn't catch up that season.

Meek looked kind of clumsy. But he worked his derrierre off and got better and better. He was a significanct contributor to an NCAA runner-up team in 1994.

He and Cherokee Parks were classmates and were seniors in 1994-95. Duke planned on redshirting Meek in '95, so he could have the center job to himself the following season. But Joey Beard developed mono in the pre-season, Duke got mauled on the boards in an exhibition game and Duke reversed itself. Beard got his you-know-whats in a wad and transferred to Boston University.

So, Duke started Parks and Meek alongside each other that season and Meek did quite well, 10 and 8. Parks went 19 and 9. Duke couldn't have asked for a much more productive 4/5 starting lineup. But we remember (or choose not to) that season for other reasons, so Meek's senior run is largely forgotten.

Meek was picked the second round of the NBA draft but received a guaranteed Euro deal and elected to take that. Played a number of years overseas.

Meek, Parks and Ricky Price were part of a Duke invasion of California that vexed UCLA and ended a regular-season rivalry between the two programs.

Not sure what he's doing these days.

Reilly
04-15-2013, 11:51 AM
I agree. If we never heard that quote .. then all the evidence we have from Marshall would be:
- looked overmatched at the McDonald's game...

I don't recall him looking overmatched. I went in with low expectations as to what I would see, and came away pleasantly surprised. This recap from Dave Telep on espn says that Marshall fit in and did not look out of place:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/recruiting/basketball/mens/news/story?id=6276418

tommy
04-15-2013, 11:56 AM
Meek, Parks and Ricky Price were part of a Duke invasion of California that vexed UCLA and ended a regular-season rivalry between the two programs.

Yes, and Duke has successfully recruited only one starter from California in the approximately 20 years since Meek, Parks, and Price matriculated in Durham, that being DeMarcus Nelson, and he was from Sacramento, not Southern California. If I'm not mistaken, the only Southern California kids we've successfully recruited since UCLA cancelled that series have been Jamal Boykin out of LA and Taylor King out of Orange County, both of whom transferred out.

BD80
04-15-2013, 12:01 PM
Yes, and Duke has successfully recruited only one starter from California in the approximately 20 years since Meek, Parks, and Price matriculated in Durham, that being DeMarcus Nelson, and he was from Sacramento, not Southern California. If I'm not mistaken, the only Southern California kids we've successfully recruited since UCLA cancelled that series have been Jamal Boykin out of LA and Taylor King out of Orange County, both of whom transferred out.

Have we had many significant "misses" from that area in that period? Boykin transferred because of family issues. King transferred because of too many issues.

I would note we haven't successfully recruited many sections of many states in the last 20 years. We've only recruited 60-80 kids in that time.

jimsumner
04-15-2013, 12:02 PM
Yes, and Duke has successfully recruited only one starter from California in the approximately 20 years since Meek, Parks, and Price matriculated in Durham, that being DeMarcus Nelson, and he was from Sacramento, not Southern California. If I'm not mistaken, the only Southern California kids we've successfully recruited since UCLA cancelled that series have been Jamal Boykin out of LA and Taylor King out of Orange County, both of whom transferred out.

Chris Burgess. He also transferred out.

Duke shifted its focus to Oregon and Alaska. :)

TruBlu
04-15-2013, 12:17 PM
Didn't Eric suffer through a really terrible car accident in high school?



Meek was hit by a car while he was jogging. Knee damage, rib damage, collar bone, nasty stuff.

Spent the summer before coming to Duke recovering from that accident, rather than doing basketball stuff.


As soon as Coach K learned of the accident, he contacted the Meeks family and told them that Eric had a scholarship regardless of his future ability to play basketball, and to concentrate on getting better. Class.

UrinalCake
04-15-2013, 12:46 PM
Random question for the experts/historians here - has there been a single big man at Duke to make it through four years WITHOUT incurring a significant injury? Maybe Miles Plumlee?

FerryFor50
04-15-2013, 12:48 PM
Random question for the experts/historians here - has there been a single big man at Duke to make it through four years WITHOUT incurring a significant injury? Maybe Miles Plumlee?

Laettner? Ferry?

jipops
04-15-2013, 12:56 PM
Random question for the experts/historians here - has there been a single big man at Duke to make it through four years WITHOUT incurring a significant injury? Maybe Miles Plumlee?

Also - Shelden Williams, Alaa Abdelnaby, Cherokee Parks, Jay Bilas... I'm sure there a more.

I'm neither an expert nor historian, but jumped in anyways

Olympic Fan
04-15-2013, 01:01 PM
Both Ferry and Laettner missed one game in their careers ... Gminski missed two games ...

Shelden Williams never missed a game ... Randy Denton (who was a forgotten star) never missed a game.

Cherokee Parks missed two games as a freshman, then never missed another game -- although he did miss ther second half of Duke's 1993 NCAA loss to Cal with an ankle injury.

Jay Bilas missed the first 21 games of his senior season with an injury.

Alaa Abdelnaby -- not sure he had a major injury ... but he missed games for an academic suspension as a junior and missed several games in his first two years -- don't know if that was due to injury or if he was just so far down the bench that he didn't play.

jimsumner
04-15-2013, 01:05 PM
Also - Shelden Williams, Alaa Abdelnaby, Cherokee Parks, Jay Bilas... I'm sure there a more.

I'm neither an expert nor historian, but jumped in anyways

Bilas had knee surgery prior to his senior season.

jipops
04-15-2013, 02:52 PM
Bilas had knee surgery prior to his senior season.

Ah, so big man injuries have reached lower extremities as the years have progressed.

How about Marty Nessley?

rhynelander
04-15-2013, 03:44 PM
I don't recall him looking overmatched. I went in with low expectations as to what I would see, and came away pleasantly surprised. This recap from Dave Telep on espn says that Marshall fit in and did not look out of place:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/recruiting/basketball/mens/news/story?id=6276418

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esmmrjzavng shows our main man Marshall's highlights during the 2011 McD's AA game practice, dunk contest and game. He gets a bucket on Anthony Davis and rejects his shot right at the halftime buzzer, but it doesn't look like he had his number called too much. I also remember he didn't get too much playing time either. Nice to see his other few game highlights were primarily rim-protecting and defensive rebounding. Can't really expect to much of him this year, but with more game experience he could develop an important role.

However it's tax day and snowing here, so I'm imagining a team next year where he plays (an admittedly very, very poor man's) Tyson Chandler, from K's Olympic squad last summer. Chandler started every game, but averaged just under a dozen minutes grabbing 4 boards and shooting 70% from field. Chandler mainly came in and gave the US an athletic and imposing rim protector who set the tone for the defense and allowed the potent US guard/ wing attack to get the opposing team playing from behind early. I know I'm kind of going on a tangent here, but it's fun to look at how Krzyzewski played the US's best "basketball players" on that squad to beat the other national teams, sometimes while at a major size disadvantage (it's also fun because the olympic games are 40 minutes long, Krzyzewski has a potentially extremely deep bench this year as well, and it's always fun to compare the Lebron, Melo, KD three headed offensive monster to the trio of Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood and uhh Alex Murphy, no matter the strech.) Makes you wonder if Duke next year could be an extremely watered down version of the '12 team and that somehow Marshall could find his inner Zoubek and become a babu-Tyson like post player. Here's to death, taxes and a Plumlee in the post at Duke playing at the least a contributing role.

jimsumner
04-15-2013, 03:50 PM
Ah, so big man injuries have reached lower extremities as the years have progressed.

How about Marty Nessley?

Marty battled weight issues and chronic knee and ankle problems, probably mutually reinforcing.

Henderson
04-15-2013, 05:54 PM
Whoa Nellie. You've referenced three guys who went on to become national players of the year. That's the standard to which we're holding Duke big men?

[as an aside, Ferry averaged just under 6 ppg as a freshman. Outstanding? But I digress]

And is it possible that breaking a foot and missing the entire pre-season kinda, maybe, sorta had something to do with the limited PT?

Ferry showed flashes of brilliance his freshman year. You could just SEE that he was going to be great. I haven't seen that in MP3's play to date. I liked the post comparing him to an eager golden retriever on the court.

But my point was about the banal commentary: that the consensus here seems to be that MP3 might get better as a player and might not. He might be a valuable contributor, and he might not. I agree 100%. But that's not much of a stretch in terms of prognostication.

I predict yes. He'll be better next year, and if he stays healthy he'll get better every year, stay 4 years and be an NBA 1st round pick. Not Ferry, Laettner, or Brand. But another MP.

jimsumner
04-15-2013, 06:15 PM
Ferry showed flashes of brilliance his freshman year. You could just SEE that he was going to be great. I haven't seen that in MP3's play to date. I liked the post comparing him to an eager golden retriever on the court.

But my point was about the banal commentary: that the consensus here seems to be that MP3 might get better as a player and might not. He might be a valuable contributor, and he might not. I agree 100%. But that's not much of a stretch in terms of prognostication.

I predict yes. He'll be better next year, and if he stays healthy he'll get better every year, stay 4 years and be an NBA 1st round pick. Not Ferry, Laettner, or Brand. But another MP.

Well, Ferry was the consensus #1 player in the high school class of 1985. Pretty sure he's not the best comparison for Marshall Plumlee.

Marshall Plumlee may turn out to be really good, maybe not. But some folks seem inclined to write him off on very flimsy evidence. At the very best, that seems premature. He's a smart, hard-working seven-footer and that's a pretty good place to start from.

ynotme32
04-15-2013, 06:29 PM
I know someone out there can give me a pretty good idea about this, who is the best player and also the best center to come out of Duke having played similar minutes that MP3 has played so far in his career? Stat junkies help me out here!

jimsumner
04-15-2013, 07:01 PM
I know someone out there can give me a pretty good idea about this, who is the best player and also the best center to come out of Duke having played similar minutes that MP3 has played so far in his career? Stat junkies help me out here!

It's hard to answer that question without factoring in the foot injury. How many minutes would a healthy Marshall Plumlee have played?

John Smith played 91 minutes as a freshman.

Alaa Abdelnaby played 191. He was a first-round NBA draft pick.

Marty Clark played 104.

Greg Newton played 115.

Carmen Wallace played 45.

Matt Christensen played 70.

Nate James played 144 in 17 games after injuring a thumb in pre-season. He might not belong here.

Casey Sanders played 144.

Lee Melchionni played 71.

David McClure played 164.

Miles Plumlee played 165.

Josh Hairston played 165.

Not all of these were big men, of course. But all played sparingly as freshmen and all became contributors at Duke down the line, some much more than contributors.

So, it can be done.

CDu
04-15-2013, 07:02 PM
Well, Ferry was the consensus #1 player in the high school class of 1985. Pretty sure he's not the best comparison for Marshall Plumlee.

Marshall Plumlee may turn out to be really good, maybe not. But some folks seem inclined to write him off on very flimsy evidence. At the very best, that seems premature. He's a smart, hard-working seven-footer and that's a pretty good place to start from.

As one of the ones in the "doesn't think Marshall will make a huge impact next year" camp, I want to clarify my stance because I think it might be being misrepresented by the bolded statement. I am not "writing Marshall off." I'm just saying that I don't think it's a good idea to rely on him as the primary option at C. And I don't desire for our primary lineup to have Parker, Hairston, or Jefferson at C.

I think that, if expected to provide 10-15 mpg next year in a matchup situation, Marshall could be solid. That's why I think adding a guy like Black (who would play 20-25 minutes at C, with 5-10 mpg of us going small (with Jefferson, Hairston, or Parker at C) is a good idea. In that scenario, we'd go with:

Black (20-25 mpg)
Marshall (10-15 mpg)
Jefferson/Parker/Hairston 5-10 mpg)

And that's if Marshall is indeed ready for 10-15 mpg. If he's not, then adding a guy like Black means we only need to have Jefferson/Parker/Hairston play 10-15 mpg at C (as opposed to 30-35 without Black).

By the time Marshall is a redshirt junior I am hopeful that he can be a solid 20-25 (or more) mpg contributor. Of course, that may not be necessary (if we get Okafor). But I think it's feasible for Marshall to be quite productive as an upperclassman.


I know someone out there can give me a pretty good idea about this, who is the best player and also the best center to come out of Duke having played similar minutes that MP3 has played so far in his career? Stat junkies help me out here!

I don't know that there is a comparable case to Marshall at Duke (redshirt first year, virtually no PT second year, injured foot playing a role in that) other than Alex Murphy. So it's probably hard to come up with an example. Ryan Kelly played 6.5 mpg as a true freshman and then 20+ mpg as a sophomore. But even he played more mpg than Marshall, and was more productive (for whatever that's worth) than Marshall. And he was a much more highly-rated recruit than Marshall was coming out of high school. And the reason for his limited minutes was because he was too skinny as a true freshman and was behind 4 other very talented players at his position. Marshall had only two guys clearly in front of him, with Hairston being a placeholder in lieu of a more proven/solid backup.

ynotme32
04-15-2013, 07:09 PM
Thanks for the info jimsumner. I personally think that Marshall will improve greatly over the next 3 years and his senior year he will be a force for Duke. I'm not saying an all-American, but I can see all-ACC for sure. He seems to me to have the desire to work hard, he is a "team" guy as you can tell from the way he acted on the bench throughout the year. Also, the fact he has two brothers in the NBA will also push him and they will help him a great deal along with the Duke staff. I certainly wouldn't write him off just yet like some people have, he will help Duke in the future I have no doubt.

CDu
04-15-2013, 07:18 PM
It's hard to answer that question without factoring in the foot injury. How many minutes would a healthy Marshall Plumlee have played?

John Smith played 91 minutes as a freshman.

Alaa Abdelnaby played 191. He was a first-round NBA draft pick.

Marty Clark played 104.

Greg Newton played 115.

Carmen Wallace played 45.

Matt Christensen played 70.

Nate James played 144 in 17 games after injuring a thumb in pre-season. He might not belong here.

Casey Sanders played 144.

Lee Melchionni played 71.

David McClure played 164.

Miles Plumlee played 165.

Josh Hairston played 165.

Not all of these were big men, of course. But all played sparingly as freshmen and all became contributors at Duke down the line, some much more than contributors.

So, it can be done.

I don't think the question should be where they eventually got at Duke. I don't know that anyone is saying that Marshall can't eventually be a productive player at Duke. The question is (as I understand it) whether or not Marshall can be productive next year (with the implicit question being should we add another guy to the mix).

Of the big men that you listed, here's what they did the next year:
Abdelnaby: 9.4 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg
Newton: 11.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg
Christenson: 9.5 mpg, 2.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg (Mormon mission - missed a few years)
Sanders: 10.7 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg
Hairston: 8.5 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 1.4 rpg

And I'd add Kelly (6.5 mpg as a freshman): 20.1 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg.

So basically only Kelly could be considered a significant contributor the year following that first season. And as I mentioned in another thread, Kelly is a a pretty specific case. He was so skinny that he wasn't physically ready to play in the post at college, and he was behind 4 more proven and physically ready players. Marshall (especially once Kelly got hurt) didn't have the same issues last year once he got over his injury.

The only question is to what extent Coach K was fibbing with his "Marshall was one of our top 6" comment and/or how much the injury actually limited Marshall (from a development standpoint) once he got healthy. And we don't know the answers to that (it's just everyone's fairly uninformed opinion there because he played so little).

Olympic Fan
04-15-2013, 07:50 PM
I don't think the question should be where they eventually got at Duke. I don't know that anyone is saying that Marshall can't eventually be a productive player at Duke. The question is (as I understand it) whether or not Marshall can be productive next year (with the implicit question being should we add another guy to the mix).

Of the big men that you listed, here's what they did the next year:
Abdelnaby: 9.4 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg
Newton: 11.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg
Christenson: 9.5 mpg, 2.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg (Mormon mission - missed a few years)
Sanders: 10.7 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg
Hairston: 8.5 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 1.4 rpg

And I'd add Kelly (6.5 mpg as a freshman): 20.1 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg.


You conveniently left out one big man parallel to Marshall -- the guy I noted earlier is in fact the best parallel to him -- his brother Miles, who played 165 minutes as a freshman and averaged 1.8 points and 1.4 rebounds. As I noted before, the two brothers were the same age when they first played at Duke (Marshall had a redshirt year; Miles repeated a year in high school). The difference in their playing time (165 vs. 50 minutes) might have had something to do with Marshall's broken foot in preseason ... in addition, there was a significant difference in what was ahead of them -- Marshall played behind an All-American center who averaged almost 35 minutes a game ... the only other center Miles' first year was a crippled Brian Zoubek, who averaged 11.9 minutes a game.

In his sophomore season at Duke, Miles upped his production to 5.2 points and 4.9 rebounds in 16.4 minutes for a national championship team. He was actually averaging a lot more and starting frequently before the emergence of a healthy Zoubek in February.

I don't see what it's so hard to imagine Marshall making the same freshman-to-sophomore jump as his brother. That doesn't mean he'll be a star next season, but I think there's a good chance he's a useful player -- either a part-time starter or a key reserve.

CDu
04-15-2013, 08:28 PM
You conveniently left out one big man parallel to Marshall -- the guy I noted earlier is in fact the best parallel to him -- his brother Miles, who played 165 minutes as a freshman and averaged 1.8 points and 1.4 rebounds. As I noted before, the two brothers were the same age when they first played at Duke (Marshall had a redshirt year; Miles repeated a year in high school). The difference in their playing time (165 vs. 50 minutes) might have had something to do with Marshall's broken foot in preseason ... in addition, there was a significant difference in what was ahead of them -- Marshall played behind an All-American center who averaged almost 35 minutes a game ... the only other center Miles' first year was a crippled Brian Zoubek, who averaged 11.9 minutes a game.

In his sophomore season at Duke, Miles upped his production to 5.2 points and 4.9 rebounds in 16.4 minutes for a national championship team. He was actually averaging a lot more and starting frequently before the emergence of a healthy Zoubek in February.

I don't see what it's so hard to imagine Marshall making the same freshman-to-sophomore jump as his brother. That doesn't mean he'll be a star next season, but I think there's a good chance he's a useful player -- either a part-time starter or a key reserve.

It was not a convenient omission, but rather a simple error. Thanks for adding him. And note that Miles' sophomore production is not really inconsistent with what I said would be reasonable for Marshall next year (i.e., 10-15 mpg). It would not be (in my opinion) a good idea to rely on Marshall as the primary center, just like it was not a good idea for Miles to be relied upon as our primary center all season. In fact, part of the reason for Zoubek's emergence was because Miles wasn't ready to make major contributions game in and game out.

Olympic Fan
04-15-2013, 08:41 PM
It was not a convenient omission, but rather a simple error. Thanks for adding him. And note that Miles' sophomore production is not really inconsistent with what I said would be reasonable for Marshall next year (i.e., 10-15 mpg). It would not be (in my opinion) a good idea to rely on Marshall as the primary center, just like it was not a good idea for Miles to be relied upon as our primary center all season. In fact, part of the reason for Zoubek's emergence was because Miles wasn't ready to make major contributions game in and game out.

That's okay ... I certainly have plenty of brain farts myself. I'm sorry if I implied that the omission was intentional.

But I will say that if Marshall can be a similar player as a sophomore to what Miles was as a sophomore, I'll be a happy, happy man.

To begin with, 5 points, 5 rebounds is not chicken feed -- only Mason and Ryan (at 5.4 rebounds) averaged more rebounds in 2013. This 16-plus minutes is not a bad goal, but I think 2010 Miles would have averaged a lot more minutes (and a few more points and rebounds) if he didn't find his playing time going to Brian Zoubek.

And, while I'll defer to the judgment of the coaching staff, I refuse to get excited about the prospect of adding an underachiever who by all accounts quit on his team last season. I'd rather see Jefferson/MP3/Hairston split the minutes in the middle next season.

I'd rather stick with what we have ... we'll be small, but I love the prospective roster and I love the flexibility that K will have with what he has lined up.

CDu
04-15-2013, 09:04 PM
That's okay ... I certainly have plenty of brain farts myself. I'm sorry if I implied that the omission was intentional.

But I will say that if Marshall can be a similar player as a sophomore to what Miles was as a sophomore, I'll be a happy, happy man.

To begin with, 5 points, 5 rebounds is not chicken feed -- only Mason and Ryan (at 5.4 rebounds) averaged more rebounds in 2013. This 16-plus minutes is not a bad goal, but I think 2010 Miles would have averaged a lot more minutes (and a few more points and rebounds) if he didn't find his playing time going to Brian Zoubek.

And, while I'll defer to the judgment of the coaching staff, I refuse to get excited about the prospect of adding an underachiever who by all accounts quit on his team last season. I'd rather see Jefferson/MP3/Hairston split the minutes in the middle next season.

I'd rather stick with what we have ... we'll be small, but I love the prospective roster and I love the flexibility that K will have with what he has lined up.

I tend to agree that your Marshall/Miles comp is a reasonable one. Miles as a sophomore was occasionally very impressive (19 points and 14 rebounds against Wake) but often nonexistent (14.35 mpg, 2.95 ppg, 3.70 rpg in the 23 games after the Wake game; 0 points and 3 rebounds in 10 minutes in the very next game aganst NC State). While I don't know that I would expect any 19 point games from Marshall next year, I could certainly see him having the occasional big game surrounded by some serious clunkers.

That's why I think it would be best to have another, more reliable/consistent, option at center. Duke really took off after Zoubek became the starter and more consistent presence. I think we'd be best served with Marshall playing a similar role to second-half-of-his-sophomore-year Miles.

And that's where I think a 5th year guy like Black would make a difference. Getting someone to be the more reliable option at center would alleviate the pressure on Marshall, and allow him to develop in a way similar to Miles.

Indoor66
04-16-2013, 07:27 AM
I tend to agree that your Marshall/Miles comp is a reasonable one. Miles as a sophomore was occasionally very impressive (19 points and 14 rebounds against Wake) but often nonexistent (14.35 mpg, 2.95 ppg, 3.70 rpg in the 23 games after the Wake game; 0 points and 3 rebounds in 10 minutes in the very next game aganst NC State). While I don't know that I would expect any 19 point games from Marshall next year, I could certainly see him having the occasional big game surrounded by some serious clunkers.

That's why I think it would be best to have another, more reliable/consistent, option at center. Duke really took off after Zoubek became the starter and more consistent presence. I think we'd be best served with Marshall playing a similar role to second-half-of-his-sophomore-year Miles.

And that's where I think a 5th year guy like Black would make a difference. Getting someone to be the more reliable option at center would alleviate the pressure on Marshall, and allow him to develop in a way similar to Miles.

The feared Devil you know vs the Devil you don't know. Personally, I'll take Marshall and the gang of 6'8"s.

DaleDuke7
04-17-2013, 08:48 AM
I think if Marshall can get a hold of the fast pace of college and especially the faster pace we will probably be playing next year, then he has the chance to be solid. But if he doesn't, and continues to look lost at times and over-excited, he may not see much time. Personally, I think Amile is the best option at the staring 5 position next year, with Marshall and Hairston splitting the rest of the minutes. But we all know K loves Hairstion, so he may get the nod. Or maybe Marshall really was as good as K said he was in the preseason. I tend to lean towards it being more like Miles though. Great in practice, but shaky in games. We'll see though. Gonna be a great year either way.

roywhite
04-17-2013, 09:49 AM
Say what we will about Marshall's prospects of playing time, the guy is an absolute star on DukeBluePlanet.

DBP Cribs: Miles Plumlee via Marshall . (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2J8mtRYAuP0)

Hilarious.

Note: video also linked from front page of DBR

CDu
04-17-2013, 10:07 AM
I think if Marshall can get a hold of the fast pace of college and especially the faster pace we will probably be playing next year, then he has the chance to be solid. But if he doesn't, and continues to look lost at times and over-excited, he may not see much time. Personally, I think Amile is the best option at the staring 5 position next year, with Marshall and Hairston splitting the rest of the minutes. But we all know K loves Hairstion, so he may get the nod. Or maybe Marshall really was as good as K said he was in the preseason. I tend to lean towards it being more like Miles though. Great in practice, but shaky in games. We'll see though. Gonna be a great year either way.

Assuming that we do not add a 5th year transfer, I'd not be at all surprised to see Parker and Hairston combine for 25-30 mpg at C. In that scenario, I'd see Parker playing C when Jefferson is in and Hairston playing C when Hairston is in. Given that both Parker and Hairston have a solid 30-40 lbs on Jefferson, I'd be surprised if Jefferson played any at C over those two.

Now, I'd prefer not to have to rely on 10+ mpg from Parker at C (I'd prefer he not have to take that wear and tear), and I'd prefer to not have to rely on 20+ mpg from Hairston at C (unless he gets a lot better). So needless to say, I don't think I'll be thrilled to see both of those things happen in the same season. But I think it's the likely outcome if Marshall isn't ready to play major minutes next year and if we don't add another big.

DaleDuke7
04-17-2013, 11:21 AM
Assuming that we do not add a 5th year transfer, I'd not be at all surprised to see Parker and Hairston combine for 25-30 mpg at C. In that scenario, I'd see Parker playing C when Jefferson is in and Hairston playing C when Hairston is in. Given that both Parker and Hairston have a solid 30-40 lbs on Jefferson, I'd be surprised if Jefferson played any at C over those two.

Now, I'd prefer not to have to rely on 10+ mpg from Parker at C (I'd prefer he not have to take that wear and tear), and I'd prefer to not have to rely on 20+ mpg from Hairston at C (unless he gets a lot better). So needless to say, I don't think I'll be thrilled to see both of those things happen in the same season. But I think it's the likely outcome if Marshall isn't ready to play major minutes next year and if we don't add another big.

I highly doubt Parker spends any time at the 5. He has specifically stated he is looking forward to playing the 2 and 3 in college. I don't think we will get another big this year honestly. I think this team is pretty much set in stone. I do think Amile will still get the nod because he seems the most versatile. That being said, he does need to put on some muscle. But we will probably see a healthy rotation of all three getting about equal playing time.

jipops
04-17-2013, 11:27 AM
I highly doubt Parker spends any time at the 5. He has specifically stated he is looking forward to playing the 2 and 3 in college.

Parker will probably come in as our best offensive weapon in the post. Given this and the plethora of guards at our disposal, I'd say zero chance he spends any time at the 2 and about the same as a 3. I'm quite sure he understands this already.

CDu
04-17-2013, 11:32 AM
I highly doubt Parker spends any time at the 5. He has specifically stated he is looking forward to playing the 2 and 3 in college.

The bolded is not accurate at all. He has said that he sees himself in a similar role as Ryan Kelly. And when asked what position he views himself next year, he said "basketball player." From that, I don't think it is at all accurate to say he expects to play the 2 and 3 in college. In fact, if anything, that would suggest he plans to play a lot of PF next year.

Parker defended pretty much exclusively at PF and C the last two years in high school. His skill set is definitely that of a stretch big (can shoot, can dribble, can post up), but his size has made him defend the post. I see no reason to assume that will change next year. There is ZERO chance he'll play the 2 next year. There is a small chance he'll play at the 3, but I'd say that even that is unlikely. It's really just a question of whether or not he plays exclusively at the 4 or he plays at the 4 and 5.

And given that he's at least 30 pounds heavier than Jefferson (not to mention taller and perhaps a better leaper), I'd expect Parker to defend centers before I'd expect Jefferson to do so. Hence my point that (if we don't add another guy and if Marshall isn't ready to play major minutes) we'll see quite a lot of Parker and Hairston guarding the opposing 5.


I think this team is pretty much set in stone. I do think Amile will still get the nod because he seems the most versatile. That being said, he does need to put on some muscle. But we will probably see a healthy rotation of all three getting about equal playing time.

Well, all indications (Laura Keeley, Dave Glenn, CBS) suggest that Duke is actively pursuing Tarik Black. So I don't think the team is at all "set in stone." It may be that we don't get a 5th year big guy, but it doesn't sounds like that will be due to a lack of looking for one.

ynotme32
04-17-2013, 11:37 AM
Say what we will about Marshall's prospects of playing time, the guy is an absolute star on DukeBluePlanet.

DBP Cribs: Miles Plumlee via Marshall . (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2J8mtRYAuP0)

Hilarious.

Note: video also linked from front page of DBR

I didn't know that even up into March Marshall was wearing a boot on his foot. In the video you can see him in a walking boot.

CDu
04-17-2013, 11:42 AM
Parker will probably come in as our best offensive weapon in the post. Given this and the plethora of guards at our disposal, I'd say zero chance he spends any time at the 2 and about the same as a 3. I'm quite sure he understands this already.

While this is almost certainly true, it's not why I think he'll play mostly at the 4 and 5. With the exception of PG, positions at Duke are determined defensively, not offensively. Parker is almost certainly going to be our best option defensively in the post. He may even be our best option defensively at C, given his size (both height/length and weight), skill, and athleticism. As such, he's going to see a lot of time playing the PF and possibly C spots.

Your second sentence is certainly accurate as well. We have several guys (Sulaimon, Thornton, presumably Hood, Dawkins, etc) who are going to be better suited to guard guys on the perimeter than Parker. As such, they'll be the ones playing the 2 and 3 spots.

jipops
04-17-2013, 12:03 PM
While this is almost certainly true, it's not why I think he'll play mostly at the 4 and 5. With the exception of PG, positions at Duke are determined defensively, not offensively. Parker is almost certainly going to be our best option defensively in the post. He may even be our best option defensively at C, given his size (both height/length and weight), skill, and athleticism. As such, he's going to see a lot of time playing the PF and possibly C spots.

Your second sentence is certainly accurate as well. We have several guys (Sulaimon, Thornton, presumably Hood, Dawkins, etc) who are going to be better suited to guard guys on the perimeter than Parker. As such, they'll be the ones playing the 2 and 3 spots.

I think there is a decent chance Amile can present a good argument against this. He has a year of experience with decent playing time in Duke's defensive scheme, he's got wingspan and has shown some shot-blocking prowess. I have little doubt Jabari is going to be a top performer at this end of the floor, but I'm not ready to rule out Amile being his equal (in terms of effectiveness for next season) in that regard. Of course much of this could also depend on what Amile can accomplish in the off-season, e.g. weight training.

CDu
04-17-2013, 12:31 PM
I think there is a decent chance Amile can present a good argument against this. He has a year of experience with decent playing time in Duke's defensive scheme, he's got wingspan and has shown some shot-blocking prowess. I have little doubt Jabari is going to be a top performer at this end of the floor, but I'm not ready to rule out Amile being his equal (in terms of effectiveness for next season) in that regard. Of course much of this could also depend on what Amile can accomplish in the off-season, e.g. weight training.

There is certainly a chance that Jefferson could be a better post defender than Parker next year. But given that:
a. Parker has 30+ lbs on Jefferson;
b. Parker is taller and has a similar wingspan;
c. Parker is a better leaper; and
d. Jefferson's experience advantage was gained playing SF and PF this year - not C

I'd say that the odds are more in favor of Parker being the better option defensively at C. It's possible that Jefferson is an equal or better option, but I'd not put my money on that possibility.

CDu
04-17-2013, 12:57 PM
Jim Sumner had a very interesting and solid post on The Devil's Den message board that I'd like to paste in this thread (mainly because I agree with it 100%):


Duke always viewed Marshall Plumlee as a project, someone who would work hard, get better over time and be a pretty solid ACC player down the line. Not an instant impact player.

With his brothers a senior and junior respectively, it made sense to redshirt him as a freshman. Any rational decision sees him bringing more value as a fifth-year senior in 2016 than as a true freshman in 2012.

Duke expected him to have developed enough to contribute off the bench as a redshirt freshman. What we saw of him over the summer, what we heard from his teammates, supported that narrative. Still, raw, still learning, but getting better, getting more comfortable.

The four weeks of the pre-season was crucial to those plans. That was the period when Duke would be practicing on a daily basis, without the distraction of games, the part of the season where individual and team drills mesh, when Marshall could be integrated into various lineups.

Then he broke a foot. That eliminated him from the entire pre-season and basically eliminated him serious PT consideration. He lost conditioning, timing and a crucial developmental period.

He was healthy when he was getting mop-up minutes. But by the time he was healthy, Duke was playing two games a week, which resulted in less practice time, less time to catch up. He was in November mode in February. A veteran could have overcome that, someone who relies more on pure athleticism might have. But Marshall needed a heavy dose of pre-season practice reps and he didn't get it.

That brings us to next year. It would be unreasonable to expect him to shoulder the burden of the center position. He simply isn't ready for 30 mpg. Maybe 15, maybe 10. Depends to an extent on who else is in the mix. Hence the interest in Black.

But that's not the same thing as saying he's a bust, his scholarship is wasted, he's not improved at all, he'll never be able to play at an ACC level.

I think this summarizes things brilliantly. I think Marshall will be a productive player capable of major minutes as a redshirt junior and senior. I think he'll be a very good player for us. But I don't think it's fair to expect him to be more than a ~15mpg guy next year given how little he's played.

The pursuit of Black by Duke suggests that the coaching staff feels the same way. In addition, it suggests that the coaching staff is also not expecting Hairston and Jefferson to be the answer at C either. The recruitment of Black shouldn't be viewed as a condemnation of Marshall or Jefferson. For Marshall, it would allow him to continue to develop without the burden of expectation as the starting C. For Jefferson, it would allow him to continue to develop at his natural position (PF or SF). And it's not a condemnation of Hairston either - just an acknowledgement that he's not really a C.

Kedsy
04-17-2013, 01:12 PM
For Jefferson, it would allow him to continue to develop at his natural position (PF or SF).

Except how many minutes would be there for Jefferson at SF (probably none) or PF (only if Jabari is playing C, which he wouldn't if we get Black, or on the bench, which probably won't happen all that much)? So one could argue getting Tarik Black would keep Amile from developing much at all.

Plus, if Tarik Black comes to Duke, the minute crunch it puts on Amile and Josh (who it would seem would play very little under this scenario) also means that Marshall won't even get to play the 10 or 15 minutes Jim Sumner hypothesized, but would hardly play at all, and that may put a damper in the plans to have him contribute more heavily as a junior and senior.

roywhite
04-17-2013, 01:38 PM
Except how many minutes would be there for Jefferson at SF (probably none) or PF (only if Jabari is playing C, which he wouldn't if we get Black, or on the bench, which probably won't happen all that much)? So one could argue getting Tarik Black would keep Amile from developing much at all.

Plus, if Tarik Black comes to Duke, the minute crunch it puts on Amile and Josh (who it would seem would play very little under this scenario) also means that Marshall won't even get to play the 10 or 15 minutes Jim Sumner hypothesized, but would hardly play at all, and that may put a damper in the plans to have him contribute more heavily as a junior and senior.

With your Philadelphia connection and interest in Amile, how would you gauge his readiness to take on major minutes at the "5" or some combination of 4/5? This presumably in the absence of a late 5th year player addition to the roster.

Is the addition of 15-20 lbs of good weight a virtual necessity for him to handle something on the order of 25 minutes a game?

CDu
04-17-2013, 01:45 PM
Except how many minutes would be there for Jefferson at SF (probably none) or PF (only if Jabari is playing C, which he wouldn't if we get Black, or on the bench, which probably won't happen all that much)? So one could argue getting Tarik Black would keep Amile from developing much at all.

I'd expect only 10-15 mpg next year for Jefferson at SF or PF (combined). But you seem to be implying in this post that the only way to develop "much at all" is through tons of game experience. Do you believe that is so? And do you think that practicing and getting more game time experience at C (which is not where he'd be looking to develop) is better than getting less game time but full-time (i.e., both practice and games) focus on his natural positions?

One might easily argue that playing less but focusing on his natural position is more valuable than playing more but playing out of position.


Plus, if Tarik Black comes to Duke, the minute crunch it puts on Amile and Josh (who it would seem would play very little under this scenario) also means that Marshall won't even get to play the 10 or 15 minutes Jim Sumner hypothesized, but would hardly play at all, and that may put a damper in the plans to have him contribute more heavily as a junior and senior.

Not really. Imagine this:
C: Black (20-25mpg), Plumlee (10-15mpg), Parker (~5mpg)
PF: Parker (20-25mpg), Jefferson (10-15mpg), Hairston (~5mpg)

That is not an unreasonable allotment of minutes, in my opinion.

Kedsy
04-17-2013, 02:21 PM
With your Philadelphia connection and interest in Amile, how would you gauge his readiness to take on major minutes at the "5" or some combination of 4/5? This presumably in the absence of a late 5th year player addition to the roster.

Is the addition of 15-20 lbs of good weight a virtual necessity for him to handle something on the order of 25 minutes a game?

This is mostly just my opinion, but I think Amile is much more ready to play (i.e., defend) the center position than you seem to. By the end of the season, he seemed to have a better grasp on our defensive rotations, and I think he's stronger than he looks. That said, will Shaquille Clear (or some other 300 pound center) be able to push Amile around? Probably, but I think it's overly simplistic to think that renders Amile incapable of playing the 5. As far as adding weight, my guess is Amile is already up to around 205 or more, and I'd be shocked if he didn't come in to the October practices weighing at least 210 and probably 215, which is still skinny but in my opinion enough to be capable. Having said all that, I think the danger of having Amile play big minutes at C is the very real possibility of him wearing down by the end of the season, the same way Kyle Singler did the end of his freshman season. Whether you can do it well or not, it's very tiring to push against a bigger player, and after five or six months of doing that, it would have to take a toll on your legs.


I'd expect only 10-15 mpg next year for Jefferson at SF or PF (combined). But you seem to be implying in this post that the only way to develop "much at all" is through tons of game experience. Do you believe that is so? And do you think that practicing and getting more game time experience at C (which is not where he'd be looking to develop) is better than getting less game time but full-time (i.e., both practice and games) focus on his natural positions?

One might easily argue that playing less but focusing on his natural position is more valuable than playing more but playing out of position.

Not really. Imagine this:
C: Black (20-25mpg), Plumlee (10-15mpg), Parker (~5mpg)
PF: Parker (20-25mpg), Jefferson (10-15mpg), Hairston (~5mpg)

That is not an unreasonable allotment of minutes, in my opinion.

I'm certainly not intending to imply that playing in games is the only way to develop, because I think the players develop more in practice than they do in games. I do think playing in games helps players develop, though. Next season I'd be shocked if Amile got very much practice time at SF anyway. If he doesn't start, he'll probably get most of his practice reps guarding Jabari at PF.

I also don't know how to determine Amile's "natural position." In high school, he played post, albeit against much smaller players. His offensive game is a post (C or traditional PF) kind of game. On defense, he would obviously have less chance to defend wings, which is a skill I'd like to see him further develop, but based on our personnel next year I don't see him doing that very much anyway, in games or in practice, except temporarily on switches. So I don't think him playing center would stunt his natural development in any way.

As far as your minute allotment, I agree it's not unreasonable, but it seems to me very unlikely to actually happen, at least not after January 1. For one thing, I'm not entirely convinced that Coach K is going to let senior Josh play so little, although I suppose he might if Josh couldn't earn the minutes in practice. For another, I expect Jabari to play 30+ minutes and not the 25 to 30 you have him down for, and those extra three to five minutes matter in this particular conversation (much to the chagrin of BD80 and others who hate this sort of speculative minute talk). But the biggest hurdle to your minute allotment is it would be such a departure for Coach K to play that many guys that many minutes (I'm assuming a five man wing rotation, all of whom would get solid rotation minutes). In other words, if K is consistent with his past practices, then if we get Tarik Black then only one of Josh/Amile/Marshall will get much meaningful playing time.

CDu
04-17-2013, 02:46 PM
This is mostly just my opinion, but I think Amile is much more ready to play (i.e., defend) the center position than you seem to. By the end of the season, he seemed to have a better grasp on our defensive rotations, and I think he's stronger than he looks. That said, will Shaquille Clear (or some other 300 pound center) be able to push Amile around? Probably, but I think it's overly simplistic to think that renders Amile incapable of playing the 5. As far as adding weight, my guess is Amile is already up to around 205 or more, and I'd be shocked if he didn't come in to the October practices weighing at least 210 and probably 215, which is still skinny but in my opinion enough to be capable. Having said all that, I think the danger of having Amile play big minutes at C is the very real possibility of him wearing down by the end of the season, the same way Kyle Singler did the end of his freshman season. Whether you can do it well or not, it's very tiring to push against a bigger player, and after five or six months of doing that, it would have to take a toll on your legs.

Yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree about how ready Jefferson will be physically to play C. But I completely agree on the "wear down" issue. In fact, I'm concerned about that with Parker too (if he had to play significant minutes at C), and Parker has a good 30-40 lbs on Jefferson. With Jefferson, I'm concerned both about his ability to handle true bigs AND his wear-down risk.

As a side note, I'm not entirely sure I'd expect to see Jefferson at 210-215 next year. He has a really slight frame, and guys like that often have trouble putting on weight. Part of me thinks he's best served in the 205 range. If that's true, then I think gaining 20-25 lbs this offseason would not be a great idea in terms of his quickness/springiness (which is his strength). And even gaining that 20-25 lbs would leave him very undersized for the position. So he'd be gaining all that weight and still overmatched physically. Instead, I'd rather see him work on gaining 5-10 lbs to get big enough to play the PF spot while maintaining his springiness/quickness.


I'm certainly not intending to imply that playing in games is the only way to develop, because I think the players develop more in practice than they do in games. I do think playing in games helps players develop, though.

I had thought this was your general belief (which I agree with), which is kind of why I was surprised by your previous post.


I also don't know how to determine Amile's "natural position." In high school, he played post, albeit against much smaller players. His offensive game is a post (C or traditional PF) kind of game. On defense, he would obviously have less chance to defend wings, which is a skill I'd like to see him further develop, but based on our personnel next year I don't see him doing that very much anyway, in games or in practice, except temporarily on switches. So I don't think him playing center would stunt his natural development in any way.

By "natural position" I meant either his ideal college position (which I think is PF) or his future position if he makes the NBA (SF). Guys regularly have to make the transition from playing C in high school to PF or even SF in college. Parker, for example, played a lot of C in high school. But he's expected to play PF in college and is viewed as a SF in the pros.

I disagree that Jefferson's offensive game is that of a post. I'd say his offensive game is a baseline player, which corresponds to SF or PF (like Luol Deng). I don't remember him ever posting up last year, but I do remember him making many crafty moves along the baseline (sort of sidewinding his way to the rim). So playing him as a post offensively would not really play to his strengths, in my opinion.

Playing exclusively at PF (like Deng did) would be best in terms of his development as a player. That's the spot he'll be playing as an upperclassman at Duke, and that's the position that most directly translates to his likely NBA spot (SF). Playing at C would require practicing at C, and that would (in my opinion) stunt his development more than the extra (but out of position) playing time would help his development.


As far as your minute allotment, I agree it's not unreasonable, but it seems to me very unlikely to actually happen, at least not after January 1. For one thing, I'm not entirely convinced that Coach K is going to let senior Josh play so little, although I suppose he might if Josh couldn't earn the minutes in practice. For another, I expect Jabari to play 30+ minutes and not the 25 to 30 you have him down for, and those extra three to five minutes matter in this particular conversation (much to the chagrin of BD80 and others who hate this sort of speculative minute talk). But the biggest hurdle to your minute allotment is it would be such a departure for Coach K to play that many guys that many minutes (I'm assuming a five man wing rotation, all of whom would get solid rotation minutes). In other words, if K is consistent with his past practices, then if we get Tarik Black then only one of Josh/Amile/Marshall will get much meaningful playing time.

Coach K is going to play the guys who deserve to play. He didn't have a problem sitting Ricky Price as a senior. He didn't have a problem sitting Marty Pocius as a redshirt junior. He didn't have a problem sitting Domzalski. He didn't have a problem sitting Paulus (a 3+ year starter) toward the end of his senior year. If we have 4 guys who are clearly better than Hairston in the post, then Hairston will sit. Coach K doesn't play the seniors just to play them.

And if you're concerned about those extra 3-5 mpg for Parker, do this:

C: Black (20-25 mpg), Plumlee (8-13 mpg), Parker (5 mpg), Hairston (2 mpg)
PF: Parker (25-30 mpg), Jefferson (9-14 mpg), Hairston (1 mpg)

So no, that 3-5 mpg doesn't really change the equation much.

Henderson
04-17-2013, 03:00 PM
Marshall Plumlee may turn out to be really good, maybe not.

Tough to argue that point.

Olympic Fan
04-17-2013, 04:20 PM
I keep beating my head against a wall about this, but K 's system does not depend on positions ... except that he would prefer to have a point guard (although he won a national title in 2010 without one).

Yes, there are players who seem to fit certain positions, but the system is tailored to the talents on the roster, not to a preconceived set of positions. That's a Carolina thing -- Dean Smith invented the 1-2-3-4-5 system. Roy's instance on sticking to that philosophy almost cost UNC an NCAA bid in 2013 -- they were in real danger of missing the tournament until Roy junked the idea of playing two post players, went with McAdoo (a pro small forward) at "center", two wings (Hairston and Bullock) and two point guards (Strickland and Paige) .... in other words, he started his five best players.

That's what K will do. It's what he's always done, which is why those who have followed Duke have seen a 6-5 center (Robert Brickey), a 6-3 power forward (DeMarcis Nelson) and all combinations of wings, point guards and the like.

And I know I'm in the minority, but I'm VERY skeptical about adding a player who was a malcontent at his last school. As much as his position-less philopsophy, K has been very careful about the kind of kids he recruits. I know a number of talented kids he's backed off in the past because of their character ... I hope he'll give a guy with Black's track record a long, long look.

DaleDuke7
04-17-2013, 04:24 PM
Honestly, I see Parker at the 3 and 4. Possibly a little at the 5 if others get in foul trouble. And I see Marshall, Jefferson, and Hairston splitting most of the minutes at the 5, with Marshall being on the lower end.

I don't think we get Black. Then you have way too many players needing playing time on what is an already stacked roster. If Marshall, Jefferson, and Hairston can combine for 10ppg and 15rpg, (which I think they are very capable of doing by the way) I say we will be just fine.

sagegrouse
04-17-2013, 05:03 PM
Marshall's role may be like Zoubek's in his junior season; it would be both players' third season in the program. Remember? He started half the games (17 out of 36) but averaged only 11.9 mins. per game. Zoubs would start and then come out at the 17:00 minute mark. His stats -- 4.1 and 3.7 -- weren't bad given his minutes and extrapolates to 10.3 and 9.3 for a 30-minute game. (Lance appeared to start the other half of the games, but averaged 18.6 mins.)

Therefore, Zoubek got his time on the court but not a huge number of minutes. Kudos to my colleagues here, but IIRC (and there is always a first time), some of you noticed that Zoubek had an awesome plus/minus rating. It took the coaching staff until the last one-third of his senior season to agree and give him a central role on the team. :o

Marshall NEEDS to play. I know he was unimpressive in isolated appearances this year, but a regular role COULD make a huge difference. I would be surprised and disappointed if we bury our only true center on the end of the bench.

sagegrouse

CDu
04-17-2013, 05:14 PM
I keep beating my head against a wall about this, but K 's system does not depend on positions ... except that he would prefer to have a point guard (although he won a national title in 2010 without one).

Perhaps the reason you're beating your head against a wall about this is because you're arguing it from the wrong perspective. Coach K's offense doesn't need positions (except PG, and the 2010 team had a very good PG in Scheyer). But his defense does. Sure, Coach K asks a lot of all of his players in terms of versatility defensively (with the switching and man-to-man). But ultimately you have to be able to defend the opponent, and if the opponent plays a big man then you have to have someone capable of defending a big man. Hence the discussion about next year. There is doubt whether Jefferson is capable of guarding big men in the post.


.... in other words, he started his five best players.

That's what K will do. It's what he's always done, which is why those who have followed Duke have seen a 6-5 center (Robert Brickey), a 6-3 power forward (DeMarcis Nelson) and all combinations of wings, point guards and the like.

That's only partly true. Coach K will start his best five players... assuming those five can adequately defend the opposing team's five best players. When that hasn't been the case, he's had to push some of his better players to the bench in order to fill a defensive need. Sometimes (like when Singler or Battier or McLeod was able to play in the post), we've been able to get away with out a true big. But generally speaking, we've always had an interior-oriented player available at C. And we've rarely ever gone with a true guard at PF or C.

Then "Nelson at PF" has gotten nice run in these parts, but it's a basically a myth. Nelson was never the primary PF at Duke. In 2006-07, we started McRoberts or Zoubek at C every game and McClure, Thomas, or McRoberts at PF in all but a handful of other games. We did start Henderson at PF against VCU (who was a smaller team) to allow our best five to be on the court more often. But Zoubek, McRoberts, McClure, and Thomas combined for 78 mpg that season. During the following season, we went with Singler and Zoubek at C and Singler, Thomas, King, and McClure at PF. Those five guys combined for over 71 mpg in 2008, with Nelson and Henderson picking up the remaining minutes when the matchups permitted.

In fact, both of those seasons are examples in which Coach K didn't start his 5 best guys. In 2007, I'd argue that Henderson was better player than Thomas and McClure, but both Thomas and McClure got more starts (and McClure logged more minutes) because they could defend in the paint. In 2008, Scheyer was unquestionably better than Thomas, McClure, and Zoubek, but all three of those guys started more games (though Scheyer did have more minutes). But we still went with an inferior player for 31 mpg at PF/C over our several superior perimeter players because we needed someone to defend inside.

If Coach K feels comfortable that Jefferson or Parker can defend the 5, we'll likely see both start at PF and C. If he doesn't, then we'll likely see one of them moved to the bench (getting limited time) and Coach K will go with someone who he feels can defend the 5 (whether that be Hairston, Marshall, or a transfer).


And I know I'm in the minority, but I'm VERY skeptical about adding a player who was a malcontent at his last school. As much as his position-less philopsophy, K has been very careful about the kind of kids he recruits. I know a number of talented kids he's backed off in the past because of their character ... I hope he'll give a guy with Black's track record a long, long look.

I'd be skeptical too. And I'm sure Coach K will do his due diligence before offering him. That's why I trust that IF Black comes to Duke, the concerns about attitude should be alleviated.

The fact that Duke appears to be actively pursuing Black suggests two things to me: (1) Coach K is not confident in what we have to defend the 5 next year; and (2) Coach K is, at least not at the surface, scared by Black's issues at Memphis.

CDu
04-17-2013, 05:17 PM
Honestly, I see Parker at the 3 and 4. Possibly a little at the 5 if others get in foul trouble. And I see Marshall, Jefferson, and Hairston splitting most of the minutes at the 5, with Marshall being on the lower end.

I don't think we get Black. Then you have way too many players needing playing time on what is an already stacked roster. If Marshall, Jefferson, and Hairston can combine for 10ppg and 15rpg, (which I think they are very capable of doing by the way) I say we will be just fine.

We may not get Black, but your reasoning that "we'll have too many players needing playing time" won't be the reason. If that were an issue, why would Coach K have already reached out to Black? Clearly he's not concerned about having too many guys, otherwise he'd have never inquired about Black's availability/interest.

If we don't get Black, it will be because either Coach K decided that he wasn't the right fit for Duke or because Black decided that Duke was not the right fit for him. It won't be because Coach K is worried about divvying up minutes. That ship of concern sailed the minute Duke reached out to Black.

wk2109
04-17-2013, 05:27 PM
Marshall's role may be like Zoubek's in his junior season; it would be both players' third season in the program. Remember? He started half the games (17 out of 36) but averaged only 11.9 mins. per game. Zoubs would start and then come out at the 17:00 minute mark. His stats -- 4.1 and 3.7 -- weren't bad given his minutes and extrapolates to 10.3 and 9.3 for a 30-minute game. (Lance appeared to start the other half of the games, but averaged 18.6 mins.)

Therefore, Zoubek got his time on the court but not a huge number of minutes. Kudos to my colleagues here, but IIRC (and there is always a first time), some of you noticed that Zoubek had an awesome plus/minus rating. It took the coaching staff until the last one-third of his senior season to agree and give him a central role on the team. :o

Marshall NEEDS to play. I know he was unimpressive in isolated appearances this year, but a regular role COULD make a huge difference. I would be surprised and disappointed if we bury our only true center on the end of the bench.

sagegrouse

I've been thinking the same exact analogy: 2008-2009 Brian Zoubek. I still recall Coach K calling his number in the ACC championship game against FSU and Brian getting some key rebounds and blocks on 7'1" Solomon Alabi -- I think he changed the game with his interior presence. Marshall might not get a lot of minutes, but hopefully he'll be capable of "being big" when Duke needs a true big man, just like Brian did in 2009.

I also think that confidence is key with Marshall. No matter how good a player is, knowing that you're the last guy off the bench has a negative psychological effect when you actually get on the court. Even guys on Team USA who were stars on their NBA teams made errors that they normally wouldn't make, probably because they got very little playing time and felt some kind of timidity (e.g. Carlos Boozer in 2008 or Danny Granger in 2010). Perhaps the same thing applies to Marshall? Maybe with big brothers Miles, Mason, and Ryan out of the picture, he'll feel more confident knowing that Duke actually needs him to produce.

I believe Marshall went 0-8 from the free throw line this season -- his stroke is far too natural for him to shoot that poorly. I recall him looking very smooth from the free throw line at his first Countdown to Craziness and being glad that his stroke looked much better than Mason's. I think the free throw shooting alone shows that there were some jitters in play when he actually got into games this year, and hopefully he won't feel those same jitters next year.

BismarckDuke
04-17-2013, 07:42 PM
I see the 5 being split between Marshall, Jefferson and Harrison. Jefferson will need to bulk up if he has any hope of 10 minutes+ time. Because of Marshall's height and what Duke has, Marshall gets minutes for sure. Not sure how much. Harrison is odds to get most of the time. Not saying 25-30 minutes but maybe 15 or so with the other 25 between Marshall and Jefferson. Harrison is the only one physical enough.

Parker will get the 4 most of the time and Hood fills in for him. Hood splits his time between the 4 and 3.

No way Jefferson see's any time at the 4 with what Duke has.

I think the best lineup will be:

PG Cook (Tyler the back up and for emotional lifts but I see Cook really turning things up next year)
SG Sali and Andre (Matt gets spots unless he just outplays these two)
SF Hood (Andre the backup)
PF Parker (have to have him on the floor a lot, Hood as the back up here)
Post Harrison, Marshall and Jefferson

People have talked a lot about Semi but it is all about his scoring. As we have seen with Jefferson, if he can't play defense he can grab a seat.

But having Parker at the 4, Hood at the 3, Sali or Andre at the 2 and Cook running the show, they will have a scoring punch unlike most.

And you are right, Coach K will find the best way to utilize the talent he has so you can throw out the traditional positions.

DaleDuke7
04-17-2013, 10:38 PM
We may not get Black, but your reasoning that "we'll have too many players needing playing time" won't be the reason. If that were an issue, why would Coach K have already reached out to Black? Clearly he's not concerned about having too many guys, otherwise he'd have never inquired about Black's availability/interest.

If we don't get Black, it will be because either Coach K decided that he wasn't the right fit for Duke or because Black decided that Duke was not the right fit for him. It won't be because Coach K is worried about divvying up minutes. That ship of concern sailed the minute Duke reached out to Black.

Didnt mean to imply Coach K would be worried about it. I'm just saying I would be. Might make some current players unhappy.

Bay Area Duke Fan
04-18-2013, 11:34 AM
I see the 5 being split between Marshall, Jefferson and Harrison. Jefferson will need to bulk up if he has any hope of 10 minutes+ time. Because of Marshall's height and what Duke has, Marshall gets minutes for sure. Not sure how much. Harrison is odds to get most of the time. Not saying 25-30 minutes but maybe 15 or so with the other 25 between Marshall and Jefferson. Harrison is the only one physical enough.

Parker will get the 4 most of the time and Hood fills in for him. Hood splits his time between the 4 and 3.

No way Jefferson see's any time at the 4 with what Duke has.

I think the best lineup will be:

PG Cook (Tyler the back up and for emotional lifts but I see Cook really turning things up next year)
SG Sali and Andre (Matt gets spots unless he just outplays these two)
SF Hood (Andre the backup)
PF Parker (have to have him on the floor a lot, Hood as the back up here)
Post Harrison, Marshall and Jefferson

People have talked a lot about Semi but it is all about his scoring. As we have seen with Jefferson, if he can't play defense he can grab a seat.

But having Parker at the 4, Hood at the 3, Sali or Andre at the 2 and Cook running the show, they will have a scoring punch unlike most.

And you are right, Coach K will find the best way to utilize the talent he has so you can throw out the traditional positions.

Who are "Harrison" and "Sali" ?

Rich
04-18-2013, 12:26 PM
Who are "Harrison" and "Sali" ?

Not sure if that was meant to be tongue in cheek, but I assume Bismarck means Hairston and Suli (Sulaimon).

nocilla
04-18-2013, 02:07 PM
We may not get Black, but your reasoning that "we'll have too many players needing playing time" won't be the reason. If that were an issue, why would Coach K have already reached out to Black? Clearly he's not concerned about having too many guys, otherwise he'd have never inquired about Black's availability/interest.

If we don't get Black, it will be because either Coach K decided that he wasn't the right fit for Duke or because Black decided that Duke was not the right fit for him. It won't be because Coach K is worried about divvying up minutes. That ship of concern sailed the minute Duke reached out to Black.

Just thinking out loud, because I don't know the exact timing of the two things, but maybe Coach K reached out before he knew Andre was coming back. I realize they play totally different positions but the trickle down could effect the minutes. With Dawkins available to play at the 3, Hood can move down to the 4 and Parker the 5 if needed.

CDu
04-18-2013, 02:58 PM
Just thinking out loud, because I don't know the exact timing of the two things, but maybe Coach K reached out before he knew Andre was coming back. I realize they play totally different positions but the trickle down could effect the minutes. With Dawkins available to play at the 3, Hood can move down to the 4 and Parker the 5 if needed.

Hypothetically there is a greater than 0% chance of this being the case. But From what I've read, it sounds like the pursuit of Black is ongoing (see Laurey Keeley's April 16 tweet on the subject). So I don't think that Dawkins' announcement has affected the pursuit of Black. Furthermore, I suspect that the coaching staff probably has known about Dawkins' likely return since before he announced it publicly.

BismarckDuke
04-18-2013, 09:31 PM
Not sure if that was meant to be tongue in cheek, but I assume Bismarck means Hairston and Suli (Sulaimon).

Yes, sorry. Hairston is how the UNC guys spells his name, I believe and I was thinking they were not spelled the same. I have seen others say Sali so I just assumed that was how to say it.

I'll be careful next time.

-jk
04-18-2013, 10:25 PM
Yes, sorry. Hairston is how the UNC guys spells his name, I believe and I was thinking they were not spelled the same. I have seen others say Sali so I just assumed that was how to say it.

I'll be careful next time.

Thanks, 'cause a quick search shows no one has ever called him "Sali" here.

Thanks,

-jk

Rickshaw
04-20-2013, 10:14 AM
I am in the camp of give Marshall a chance (of course if he fails it may be too late to do anything about it). I am fortunate enough to share season tickets with a friend of mine...section 8 row D.....and have seen Marshall play almost all of his home game minutes. Yeah, he looked a little spooked at times but looked promising even more of the time.
You don't grow up with brothers named Miles and Mason and not learn to compete.
Many of you say coach Ks pre-season praise of Marshall was motivational....maybe talk of adding another big is motivational as well.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-20-2013, 10:40 AM
I see the 5 being split between Marshall, Jefferson and Harrison. Jefferson will need to bulk up if he has any hope of 10 minutes+ time. Because of Marshall's height and what Duke has, Marshall gets minutes for sure. Not sure how much. Harrison is odds to get most of the time. Not saying 25-30 minutes but maybe 15 or so with the other 25 between Marshall and Jefferson. Harrison is the only one physical enough.

Parker will get the 4 most of the time and Hood fills in for him. Hood splits his time between the 4 and 3.

No way Jefferson see's any time at the 4 with what Duke has.

I think the best lineup will be:

PG Cook (Tyler the back up and for emotional lifts but I see Cook really turning things up next year)
SG Sali and Andre (Matt gets spots unless he just outplays these two)
SF Hood (Andre the backup)
PF Parker (have to have him on the floor a lot, Hood as the back up here)
Post Harrison, Marshall and Jefferson

People have talked a lot about Semi but it is all about his scoring. As we have seen with Jefferson, if he can't play defense he can grab a seat.

But having Parker at the 4, Hood at the 3, Sali or Andre at the 2 and Cook running the show, they will have a scoring punch unlike most.

And you are right, Coach K will find the best way to utilize the talent he has so you can throw out the traditional positions.

Rather than nitpicking at the misspellings in your post, I will respond to your analysis. I think the most important detail is that short of picking up a transfer with some bulk and beef, Marshall will have to really step up his game to keep Parker on the wing rather than under the hoop. From what I understand, he seems himself as potentially a 3 in the NBA, and I assume K will try and ready him for that by at least getting the bulk of his minutes at the 4. If a weak center position means he is logging lots of minutes at the 5, I don't think that gives Duke or Parker the best chance for success. On the other hand, if we have two of our sharp guards on the floor, and can play a line up underneath of Marshall/Mr.X, Parker, and a beefed up Jefferson - that could be a really tough team to beat, not to mention one of the teams in the nation with the most length.

Go Duke!

dukeofcalabash
04-20-2013, 10:48 AM
Coach spent 3 1/2 years with Brian Zoubek before he 'panned' out. Without him, I don't think Duke would have won. That was truly a team effort that year.

Saratoga2
04-20-2013, 11:29 AM
If you do a comparison of the two, Marshall is a couple of inches shorter and not a massive, but he is also much more athletic. His main fault so far seems to be that he hasn't adapted to the speed of the game. Part can be seen when he is out of position defensively and part when he lacks the calmness to catch a ball and put up a soft shot. If and when he does have the game slow down for him, his value to the team could be enough to make him a starter. Will that happen next season? That's anyones guess but it wouldn't be bad to have an alternative like Mr.Black.

Kedsy
04-20-2013, 01:06 PM
On the other hand, if we have two of our sharp guards on the floor, and can play a line up underneath of Marshall/Mr.X, Parker, and a beefed up Jefferson - that could be a really tough team to beat, not to mention one of the teams in the nation with the most length.

With the wealth of wings we have, it would very much surprise me to see Marshall (or "Mr. X") plus Amile plus Jabari all on the floor at the same time.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-20-2013, 01:11 PM
With the wealth of wings we have, it would very much surprise me to see Marshall (or "Mr. X") plus Amile plus Jabari all on the floor at the same time.

I agree it seems like a stretch, but really, we have a wealth at all positions except the 5. I was just trying to concoct a scenario that would get Jabari out to his natural position in the NBA.

I also acknowledge that I can't recall a K team that has ever led with a beefy line-up like that. Just an interesting idea.

You are right, we're much more likely to go with three guards and exploit quickness and shooting than three bigs.

Go Duke!

Kedsy
04-20-2013, 01:29 PM
I agree it seems like a stretch, but really, we have a wealth at all positions except the 5. I was just trying to concoct a scenario that would get Jabari out to his natural position in the NBA.

I also acknowledge that I can't recall a K team that has ever led with a beefy line-up like that. Just an interesting idea.

You are right, we're much more likely to go with three guards and exploit quickness and shooting than three bigs.

Go Duke!

Especially when we have wings like Rodney and Alex who are 6'8" (Semi, too, reportedly), pretty much the same height as Amile and Jabari (although with shorter reach).

More importantly, I don't think a big lineup like the one you propose would be our best lineup. Defensively, while Amile can defend wings, I'm not sure how well he can defend really quick wings, and Marshall has a ways to go before I'd call him an outstanding post defender, so I don't know how much of an upgrade (if any) the tall lineup would be on defense. And on offense, Rodney, Rasheed, Andre, Alex, Matt, and Semi are probably all better offensive players than Marshall (and most of them are better offensive players than Amile, too). So, a lineup including both Marshall and Amile would almost have to be inferior on offense to almost any other lineup we could put out there, and would be at best a defensive wash.

In the end, I wouldn't worry too much about Jabari getting to play his "natural" NBA position. A lot of NBA SFs played PF in college. The typical college lineup is a lot shorter than the typical NBA lineup.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-20-2013, 01:36 PM
Especially when we have wings like Rodney and Alex who are 6'8" (Semi, too, reportedly), pretty much the same height as Amile and Jabari (although with shorter reach).

More importantly, I don't think a big lineup like the one you propose would be our best lineup. Defensively, while Amile can defend wings, I'm not sure how well he can defend really quick wings, and Marshall has a ways to go before I'd call him an outstanding post defender, so I don't know how much of an upgrade (if any) the tall lineup would be on defense. And on offense, Rodney, Rasheed, Andre, Alex, Matt, and Semi are probably all better offensive players than Marshall (and most of them are better offensive players than Amile, too). So, a lineup including both Marshall and Amile would almost have to be inferior on offense to almost any other lineup we could put out there, and would be at best a defensive wash.

In the end, I wouldn't worry too much about Jabari getting to play his "natural" NBA position. A lot of NBA SFs played PF in college. The typical college lineup is a lot shorter than the typical NBA lineup.

So... you agree that we agree.

I for one am pumped that we are going to have so much perimeter firepower and quickness. Really, while I think that Marshall would likely develop better as a 4, we are awfully loaded 2-4 and need him down low. I'd like a little more depth at point, and short of a potential transfer, some more size at 5, but this year's team seems to really have an embarrassment of talent and athleticism at the wings. We are going to cause a lot of match up problems with our flexibility, I think.

Also, this type of squad can be so much fun to watch. Looking very much forward to seeing how K uses this team.

Go Duke!

Kedsy
04-20-2013, 01:58 PM
Really, while I think that Marshall would likely develop better as a 4, we are awfully loaded 2-4 and need him down low.

This is interesting. Why do you think Marshall would be better at PF than C? From all accounts I've read, they say he's the most "center-like" of the three Plumlee brothers, and the others both played C for us.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-20-2013, 02:33 PM
This is interesting. Why do you think Marshall would be better at PF than C? From all accounts I've read, they say he's the most "center-like" of the three Plumlee brothers, and the others both played C for us.

You probably have better information that I do. I was just seeing how he looks out of place under the basket and plays with so much energy. He does seems to have that gazelle-like shot blocking potential of his brothers. I might just be conveniently forgetting what his brothers were like early in their Duke careers. I do recall them having to develop the discipline and maturity that served them well later in their careers.

Looking up their facts online, it seems that they are all almost identical in height and weight, so I'll concede that I was probably off-base on that.

Regardless, I hope he becomes the greatest of the Plumlees in a Duke uniform, but he also seems like he has the furthest to go.

Go Duke!

DukieInBrasil
04-21-2013, 09:41 AM
You probably have better information that I do. I was just seeing how he looks out of place under the basket and plays with so much energy. He does seems to have that gazelle-like shot blocking potential of his brothers. I might just be conveniently forgetting what his brothers were like early in their Duke careers. I do recall them having to develop the discipline and maturity that served them well later in their careers.

Looking up their facts online, it seems that they are all almost identical in height and weight, so I'll concede that I was probably off-base on that.

Regardless, I hope he becomes the greatest of the Plumlees in a Duke uniform, but he also seems like he has the furthest to go.

Go Duke!

I thought i read at one point that Marshall was a "true" 7 ft tall, although the listing i found says 6'11 235 lbs, but he can still get beefier, although that may take away from his springiness. I think i remember wingspan measurements for Marshall being a bit on the short side for such a tall guy, although i hope he can grip a ball better than Miles did.

I agree withe "furthest to go" part, but since he seems to be more natural at the position that Duke needs him at than his brothers, perhaps he'll end his career somewhere north of Miles, but probably somewhere south of Mason (Mason's Sr. year was pretty frikkin' awesome!).

As far as Duke bringing in another C, i don't think that would really hurt Marshall's development all that much: K has often said that he wants to put players in a position where they can succeed and that seeing success often leads to more of it. So far, Marshall hasn't shown that he would be particularly successful with 20+ mpg, iow, there are lots of situations that he hasn't shown he can deal with successfully. In that vein, it's likely that Duke could use a more experienced option at C for substantial portions of the game.
Seems to me that Duke will have so much shooting and length at the 2-4 spots that having the traditional style C on the floor might not be all that necessary, so that bringing in another C might not be all that useful. The Duke fan in me would like to see Marshall get all the minutes he can handle so that i can grow to like him more, rather than bring in a 1-yr "grad" transfer who i will remain largely unknown due to a 1-yr only stay. However, if that 1-yr transfer increases our chances for another Natty, i'm all for it!!!

luburch
04-23-2013, 12:06 PM
Since I'm sitting in my business law class I don't really have time to skim through all of the pages, but was anyone aware that Marshall was having foot surgery today?

CDu
04-23-2013, 12:06 PM
Apparently (per the Devil's Den) Marshall Plumlee is having foot surgery. If this is true, here's hoping he has a speedy (and full) recovery, and that we don't repeat what happened to Kelly next year.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-23-2013, 12:08 PM
Apparently (per the Devil's Den) Marshall Plumlee is having foot surgery. If this is true, here's hoping he has a speedy (and full) recovery, and that we don't repeat what happened to Kelly next year.

Well, this might go a long way towards explaining Duke's sudden interest in a 1 year transfer.

Get well soon, Marshall!

Kedsy
04-23-2013, 12:17 PM
Well, this might go a long way towards explaining Duke's sudden interest in a 1 year transfer.

Get well soon, Marshall!

It also might help explain why he played so seldom and performed less well than hoped.

arnie
04-23-2013, 12:20 PM
It also might help explain why he played so seldom and performed less well than hoped.

Have we reached 20 foot surgeries for men's bball on the past 20 years?

CDu
04-23-2013, 12:28 PM
Well, this might go a long way towards explaining Duke's sudden interest in a 1 year transfer.

Get well soon, Marshall!


It also might help explain why he played so seldom and performed less well than hoped.

Both are certainly possible.

In any case, hopefully he is able to recover fully/quickly and get up to speed enough to be a legitimate contributor next year (the first part being the important thing).

roywhite
04-23-2013, 12:32 PM
Have we reached 20 foot surgeries for men's bball on the past 20 years?

At what point does a trend become an epidemic?

Sheesh.

Get well soon, Marshall.

Philsfan
04-23-2013, 12:37 PM
http://blogs.newsobserver.com/dukenow/duke-marshall-plumlee-surgery-left-foot

Kedsy
04-23-2013, 12:42 PM
http://blogs.newsobserver.com/dukenow/duke-marshall-plumlee-surgery-left-foot

The photo in that article is classic.

roywhite
04-23-2013, 12:47 PM
The photo in that article is classic.

Yeah, Marhsall is quite a character; really funny guy.

He's prominently featured in this recent DukeBluePlanet video of comedy moments from the 2012-13 season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olgjmOijVf0

CDu
04-23-2013, 12:50 PM
Yeah, Marhsall is quite a character; really funny guy.

He's prominently featured in this recent DukeBluePlanet video of comedy moments from the 2012-13 season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olgjmOijVf0

He is a comedic genius. It's like Duke Blue Planet was made just for him. Some of his work in the post-game interviews is the stuff of legend.

Jim3k
04-23-2013, 01:10 PM
But, as the news today reveals, Marshall's foot injury has devolved into surgery (http://blogs.newsobserver.com/dukenow/duke-marshall-plumlee-surgery-left-foot). Let's hope that puts him back in play for next season.

westwall
04-23-2013, 01:27 PM
Yikes! Welcome to the 'left-foot-surgery' group, Marshall. Hope your recovery goes well and you are walking again soon!

Ichabod Drain
04-23-2013, 01:38 PM
But, as the news today reveals, Marshall's foot injury has devolved into surgery (http://blogs.newsobserver.com/dukenow/duke-marshall-plumlee-surgery-left-foot). Let's hope that puts him back in play for next season.

This is probably a good indicator of why Duke is searching for a big man grad transfer. Here's to a fast and total recovery for Marshall.

greybeard
04-23-2013, 02:58 PM
Marshall needs to work with a Feldenkrais Practitioner, in fact the whole team should. The practitioner would not be me.

I've mentioned before that "the man" to help Marshall is Jeff Haller, who has been doing this work for 40 years, is very highly regarded, and for quite a while has worked with a number of high-end athletes, including a handful of NHL All Stars. He is a former All-State basketball player (Washington), an accomplished Marshall Artist, and at 6'5", an imposing physical specimen. Dr. Feldenkrais was of the view that an essential ingredient of performing any movement sequence optimally, is that it should be reversible--that a person should be able to stop at any point and retrace the path he had taken backwards to the place the movement began. Haller trained with Dr. Feldenkrais and came to the training as considerable experience as a marshal artist (Dr. Feldenkrais himself was a third degree black belt in Judo). Haller says that, in passing, Dr. Feldenkrais said to him, "It's all about the fourth metatarsal." Well, what this guy has done with regard to reversibility through many, many years of exploration of what that little tip meant is stunning. Tell Haller to "Halt" while he is walking, and then try to push or pull him in any direction. Good luck.

Jeff is in the midst of a one-year Sabbatical from running trainings. I had an exchange of e-mails with him recently, I wrote to ask, and can tell you he has been doing some interesting consulting in the world of high-end sports.

K ought to hire him; at a minimum, the Plumlees should seek him out.

Kedsy
04-23-2013, 03:33 PM
Sounds like Marshall's out of action for 3 or 4 months. Alas, the off-season leap we all hoped for looks a lot less likely now.

CDu
04-23-2013, 03:39 PM
Sounds like Marshall's out of action for 3 or 4 months. Alas, the off-season leap we all hoped for looks a lot less likely now.

Uggh, that's awful news if true. That's basically all of his individual player development time.

If so, then in a related note I'm even more in the "we could use Tarik Black" camp.

tommy
04-23-2013, 05:01 PM
Sounds like Marshall's out of action for 3 or 4 months. Alas, the off-season leap we all hoped for looks a lot less likely now.


Uggh, that's awful news if true. That's basically all of his individual player development time.

Yeah, this is upsetting. Was it known all along that Marshall was going to need this surgery, or did it only become apparent after he returned and as the season wore on and he wasn't improving as perhaps was expected, or even after the season? If the former -- meaning it was known a long time ago that this surgery would be needed, then I don't know why he wouldn't have just gone ahead and had the surgery a few months ago and written off this season and been back in business in time to get something out of the summer. I mean, he didn't contribute anyway, and now his opportunity to improve over the summer has just gone down the toilet. I sure hope there was a good reason that they waited.

NSDukeFan
04-23-2013, 05:40 PM
He is a former All-State basketball player (Washington), an accomplished Marshall Artist, and at 6'5", an imposing physical specimen.

K ought to hire him; at a minimum, the Plumlees should seek him out.

Hire this guy! A Marshall artist would be perfect.

gofurman
04-23-2013, 05:41 PM
Yeah, this is upsetting. Was it known all along that Marshall was going to need this surgery, or did it only become apparent after he returned and as the season wore on and he wasn't improving as perhaps was expected, or even after the season? If the former -- meaning it was known a long time ago that this surgery would be needed, then I don't know why he wouldn't have just gone ahead and had the surgery a few months ago and written off this season and been back in business in time to get something out of the summer. I mean, he didn't contribute anyway, and now his opportunity to improve over the summer has just gone down the toilet. I sure hope there was a good reason that they waited.

If known early why not have this surgery last year I wonde

CDu
04-23-2013, 05:42 PM
Hire this guy! A Marshall artist would be perfect.

I'm glad somebody else went for this joke and not me. :)

NSDukeFan
04-23-2013, 05:46 PM
I'm glad somebody else went for this joke and not me. :)

I couldn't resist.

Bob Green
04-23-2013, 07:05 PM
Sounds like Marshall's out of action for 3 or 4 months. Alas, the off-season leap we all hoped for looks a lot less likely now.

Yep, this is terrible news as recovering from the surgery means no summer workouts to develop his game.

-bdbd
04-23-2013, 07:14 PM
If known early why not have this surgery last year I wonde

Not all surgeries are "must be done right now" sorts of things. If his situation was such that he could still play on it and hope that things improve, and then if still needed he could have it immediately after the season in April (and therefore miss no games), then why not? He already had a red-shirt year and probably was not of a mind to sit out yet another full season. Once we lost Kelly things dcould have looked pretty dire if MP2 went down, and no MP3 back-up.

At least the good news is that he won't miss game action, and a July/early-Aug. return means he still has time to get SOME work in this summer, so he shouldn't be "working himself back into shape" at the start of practice. Will be interesting to see how this impacts Tariq Black's recruitment.
Hmmm.

Duvall
04-23-2013, 07:16 PM
Hire this guy! A Marshall artist would be perfect.

Boooo.

licc85
04-23-2013, 08:59 PM
jeez . . . out 12-16 weeks? So, that makes his return sometime in September? Sigh, I hope we get another big man.

sagegrouse
04-23-2013, 09:04 PM
jeez . . . out 12-16 weeks? So, that makes his return sometime in September? Sigh, I hope we get another big man.

Given all the injuries to the extremities, I expect the coaching staff is doing some soul-searching about now. Or, maybe, sole-searching?

sagegrouse

Newton_14
04-23-2013, 09:07 PM
Well, this might go a long way towards explaining Duke's sudden interest in a 1 year transfer.

Get well soon, Marshall!

Agree. Makes much more sense now. So sorry for Marshall. I hate it.


It also might help explain why he played so seldom and performed less well than hoped.

Agree here too. Maybe K wasn't stretching the truth so much about MP3's preseason performance. If the foot was bothering him all year (and like Seth/Ryan, he was booted anytime he wasn't at a game or practice) then it stands to reason it reduced his minutes and handicapped his ability to play at a high level.



Have we reached 20 foot surgeries for men's bball on the past 20 years?

And, not sure on this but certainly closing in on that number. So we basically played most of the year with our star guard on a bum leg, our star forward on a bum foot, and our main backup center on a bum foot, who maybe, just maybe could have been a solid contributor to the frontcourt if fully healthy, yet the team still managed to finish 2nd in the league, win 30 games, and fell about 21 minutes or so short of a Final Four appearance. The "If and Buts" of this season could fill a book. Fully healthy all season this is a Final Four team. Might not beat Louisville in the final but would have had a say in the matter in Atlanta and a punchers chance.

The REAL DUKE CURSE: Injuries to OUR KEY PLAYERS!

roywhite
04-23-2013, 10:47 PM
And, not sure on this but certainly closing in on that number. So we basically played most of the year with our star guard on a bum leg, our star forward on a bum foot, and our main backup center on a bum foot, who maybe, just maybe could have been a solid contributor to the frontcourt if fully healthy, yet the team still managed to finish 2nd in the league, win 30 games, and fell about 21 minutes or so short of a Final Four appearance. The "If and Buts" of this season could fill a book. Fully healthy all season this is a Final Four team. Might not beat Louisville in the final but would have had a say in the matter in Atlanta and a punchers chance.

The REAL DUKE CURSE: Injuries to OUR KEY PLAYERS!

Yeah, amen. Don't have a link, but I'm seeing info on another board that Josh Hairston needs surgery to repair a ligament in his thumb.

Surely the team has blown past the co-pays and deductibles on their medical coverage? :eek:

greybeard
04-23-2013, 10:50 PM
I couldn't resist.

Can't be mad at that. Pretty funny. Hey, Ovechkin had a pretty dramatic and unexpected turnaround late in the season. Oates worked with extensively with Haller in recovering from injury and then delevoping his game to All Star status. Man, Ovechkin did have a pretty abrupt and sustained turnaround this season. "I Wonder, I Wonder, Wonder I do." Haller's understanding and helping people to understand, how to maintain dyamic stability from the fifth metarsal through the front bone in the middle of the heal with force reserved fpr retreat until one is solidly over the forward leg is quite incredible. Might help with all these foot injuries. That's only a small fraction of what this guy has to offer. He takes people where they are and how they are. He provides the tools for learning to change, while in the process investigating changing function in specific respects. each to learn how to do with they experience as working best for them. That is real change, the learner "owns it, which works better than strengthening muscles and having a slew of at speed drills performed to develop muscle memory (do muscles have some brain like qualiy that produces such memory, the nucleous perhaps?)

Theworld is a changing. Acttually not. This stuff has been used to assist world class musicians, actors, dancers, athletes recover from injury and improve performance from the late 40s. Haller is the most focused on the athletic world among the practitioners who got to study with Feldenkrais before in stopped training others in 1984 for health reasons. The more Sport needs to address this issue of injury in Sport, the more this technology becomes more and more prominent. Get in early, or be left behind.

BD80
04-23-2013, 11:27 PM
... Oates worked with extensively with Haller in recovering from injury and then delevoping his game to All Star status. ...

Haller & Oates????

Say It Isn't So.

I Can't Go For That. No Can Do.

Never mind me, guess I'm just Out of Touch.

sHe's Gone.

tommy
04-23-2013, 11:49 PM
Can't be mad at that. Pretty funny. Hey, Ovechkin had a pretty dramatic and unexpected turnaround late in the season. Oates worked with extensively with Haller in recovering from injury and then delevoping his game to All Star status. Man, Ovechkin did have a pretty abrupt and sustained turnaround this season. "I Wonder, I Wonder, Wonder I do." Haller's understanding and helping people to understand, how to maintain dyamic stability from the fifth metarsal through the front bone in the middle of the heal with force reserved fpr retreat until one is solidly over the forward leg is quite incredible. Might help with all these foot injuries. That's only a small fraction of what this guy has to offer. He takes people where they are and how they are. He provides the tools for learning to change, while in the process investigating changing function in specific respects. each to learn how to do with they experience as working best for them. That is real change, the learner "owns it, which works better than strengthening muscles and having a slew of at speed drills performed to develop muscle memory (do muscles have some brain like qualiy that produces such memory, the nucleous perhaps?)

Theworld is a changing. Acttually not. This stuff has been used to assist world class musicians, actors, dancers, athletes recover from injury and improve performance from the late 40s. Haller is the most focused on the athletic world among the practitioners who got to study with Feldenkrais before in stopped training others in 1984 for health reasons. The more Sport needs to address this issue of injury in Sport, the more this technology becomes more and more prominent. Get in early, or be left behind.

What I'd be interested in more so than Haller's working with one individual player is having him analyze the program's training methods (espec. with regard to feet) more broadly. Would he be able to identify anything about the way our players train, about the exercises or drills they do, the equipment they use, the shoes, the floor, anything -- that might explain what seems to be an unending series of serious foot injuries. Maybe other programs have experienced similar numbers of foot injuries and I'm just not aware of it, but it sure seems like Duke has had an absurdly bad run in this regard, and if I was Coach K, I'd be open to hearing about some possible alternative explanations for it, something other than just "really bad luck." Maybe that's all it is, but I think it's to the point where we should be looking for something more.

Jabari Parker has already broken a foot in high school; Grayson Allen reportedly has had significant ankle issues already . . . Let's try not to let the beat go on . . .

billy
04-24-2013, 12:11 AM
if I was Coach K, I'd be open to hearing about some possible alternative explanations for it, something other than just "really bad luck."

I think this study best sums it up:
http://loyolamedicine.org/newswire/news/intense-specialized-training-young-athletes-linked-serious-overuse-injuries

I'm not sure that focusing on other sports or cross-training would result in the best basketball player, but it would likely cut down on injuries.

Saratoga2
04-24-2013, 07:56 AM
Having Marshall under the knife again explains to some degree his lack of development during the year. There is hope that with complete healing he will show himself to be a valuable contributor at the center position. On the other hand, it also shows that he is prone to problems with fractures in his feet and may suffer the same problem again next year. We have Ryan's experience with multiple issues to look at. Perhaps adding a backup center to take minutes and as insurance against a complete loss of Marshall would make more sense in the light of the announcement of his continuing foot problems. If Black wants to come to Duke and can qualify, why not?

roywhite
04-24-2013, 08:37 AM
I think this study best sums it up:
http://loyolamedicine.org/newswire/news/intense-specialized-training-young-athletes-linked-serious-overuse-injuries

I'm not sure that focusing on other sports or cross-training would result in the best basketball player, but it would likely cut down on injuries.

Thanks for the link. Looks like virtually every young basketball player we recruit would be at high risk for injury according to the suggested guidelines.


Young athletes who specialize in one sport and train intensively have a significantly higher risk of stress fractures and other severe overuse injuries, even when compared with other injured athletes, according to the largest clinical study of its kind.

For example, young athletes who spent more hours per week than their age playing one sport – such as a 12-year-old who plays tennis 13 or more hours a week – were 70 percent more likely to experience serious overuse injuries than other injuries.

CDu
04-24-2013, 09:03 AM
Having Marshall under the knife again explains to some degree his lack of development during the year. There is hope that with complete healing he will show himself to be a valuable contributor at the center position. On the other hand, it also shows that he is prone to problems with fractures in his feet and may suffer the same problem again next year. We have Ryan's experience with multiple issues to look at. Perhaps adding a backup center to take minutes and as insurance against a complete loss of Marshall would make more sense in the light of the announcement of his continuing foot problems. If Black wants to come to Duke and can qualify, why not?

Tarik Black has been a 3-year starter at the D-1 level. He has substantial tournament experience as a starting center. He is not going to come here for his last yaer to be a backup/insurance policy to play behind a guy who was rated lower out of high school and (for a variety of reasons) has played less than 200 minutes in two years of college and will be dealing with a foot injury for the entire summer. Coach K is going after Black because he wants a starting center. If Black comes, I think we can count on him to play at least 20-25 mpg (if not more) at center.

COYS
04-24-2013, 11:44 AM
Tarik Black has been a 3-year starter at the D-1 level. He has substantial tournament experience as a starting center. He is not going to come here for his last yaer to be a backup/insurance policy to play behind a guy who was rated lower out of high school and (for a variety of reasons) has played less than 200 minutes in two years of college and will be dealing with a foot injury for the entire summer. Coach K is going after Black because he wants a starting center. If Black comes, I think we can count on him to play at least 20-25 mpg (if not more) at center.

Completely agree. Black's positives are:

Athletic Ability
Size
Strength

His weaknesses are:
Basketball IQ
Awareness
Positioning

The running theory is that Pastner is so terrible as a basketball coach that he never helped Tarik with the mental aspects of the game. There is no better coach in the country at mental preparation than K. If Tarik even shows incremental improvements in his weak areas, he can be a formidable force for a Duke team that will otherwise be short on size at the 5 spot (pun intended), especially with Marshall out all summer and thus unable to put in work to improve his game.

CDu
04-24-2013, 11:52 AM
Completely agree. Black's positives are:

Athletic Ability
Size
Strength

His weaknesses are:
Basketball IQ
Awareness
Positioning

The running theory is that Pastner is so terrible as a basketball coach that he never helped Tarik with the mental aspects of the game. There is no better coach in the country at mental preparation than K. If Tarik even shows incremental improvements in his weak areas, he can be a formidable force for a Duke team that will otherwise be short on size at the 5 spot (pun intended), especially with Marshall out all summer and thus unable to put in work to improve his game.

I could not agree more with this post.

jimsumner
04-24-2013, 03:46 PM
Yeah, amen. Don't have a link, but I'm seeing info on another board that Josh Hairston needs surgery to repair a ligament in his thumb.

Surely the team has blown past the co-pays and deductibles on their medical coverage? :eek:

Duke basketball is in the Frequent Buyer's Club. Every tenth surgery is free. Just make sure to get the card punched.

azzefkram
04-24-2013, 03:51 PM
Completely agree. Black's positives are:

Athletic Ability
Size
Strength

His weaknesses are:
Basketball IQ
Awareness
Positioning

The running theory is that Pastner is so terrible as a basketball coach that he never helped Tarik with the mental aspects of the game. There is no better coach in the country at mental preparation than K. If Tarik even shows incremental improvements in his weak areas, he can be a formidable force for a Duke team that will otherwise be short on size at the 5 spot (pun intended), especially with Marshall out all summer and thus unable to put in work to improve his game.

The bolded seem like they are the same issues many here have with Marshall. Why are we assuming that Tarik will be able to pick up in a summer what Marshall hasn't in 2 years? The surgery obviously changes the equation, but many here were gaga before the news came out.

Monmouth77
04-24-2013, 04:25 PM
My observation at the Palace during the Memphis-Mich St. Tourney matchup was that Black was the only Memphis player capable of defending Nix, and he did a nice job. But he got in foul trouble pretty fast.

Nothing else about his game stood out. He seemed like maybe the 7th or 8th best player on the floor in that game.

I would rather see Amile Jefferson get more minutes in the post than Black, but could see him helping and playing a role.

tommy
04-24-2013, 04:32 PM
My observation at the Palace during the Memphis-Mich St. Tourney matchup was that Black was the only Memphis player capable of defending Nix, and he did a nice job. But he got in foul trouble pretty fast.

Nothing else about his game stood out. He seemed like maybe the 7th or 8th best player on the floor in that game.

I would rather see Amile Jefferson get more minutes in the post than Black, but could see him helping and playing a role.

How do you think Amile would have done against Nix? He didn't play in the Sweet 16 game we played against them this year.

BD80
04-24-2013, 04:44 PM
Duke basketball is in the Frequent Buyer's Club. Every tenth surgery is free. Just make sure to get the card punched.

Haven't we reached the level where we get the automatic upgrade to bionic?

Monmouth77
04-24-2013, 07:41 PM
How do you think Amile would have done against Nix? He didn't play in the Sweet 16 game we played against them this year.

Well no, because we had an All-American center to defend him. And of course, Jefferson was a freshman and lacked some of the physical strength I think he'll add in the offseason. But I think Jefferson's length and mobility could have bothered Nix a bit-- that's what Mason used to defend him (not bulk).

In all events, my point is something different. I think our team will be constructed so much differently next year-- in part because we won't have a star center-- that I'd rather see Duke maximize what we will have (or what we all hope we'll have): speed, length and athleticism.

I totally agree we could probably use a big body in the paint, at least situationally, if not for long stretches of games, and that Black has more upside and ability than Hairston. So why not add him?

But I think Jefferson has more upside than either of those guys, and I'd rather see him play more than either of those guys. In other words, I'd rather see our best players play.

I guess I'd also add that in a matchup against the Spartans, one could conceive of Jefferson defending Payne and Parker defending Nix. So I'm not sure it's as one dimensional as the hypothetical you pose.

luvdahops
04-25-2013, 09:58 AM
My observation at the Palace during the Memphis-Mich St. Tourney matchup was that Black was the only Memphis player capable of defending Nix, and he did a nice job. But he got in foul trouble pretty fast.

Nothing else about his game stood out. He seemed like maybe the 7th or 8th best player on the floor in that game.

I would rather see Amile Jefferson get more minutes in the post than Black, but could see him helping and playing a role.

I watched the game on TV, and Black was the only Memphis player that made a positive impression on me. I thought he did a decent job against Nix (certainly didn't get pushed around by him), and made some nice moves in the first half. But their guards were absolutely atrocius in the second half, and Black went long stretches without even sniffing the ball as a result. I'd have to say that Memphis as a team showed zero poise in the second half; it was maybe the least impressive performance of the tournament, at least after the Thursday/Friday "second round" blowouts. Pastner may be a good recruiter, but he has a long, long way to go as a coach overall.

CDu
04-25-2013, 10:10 AM
Well no, because we had an All-American center to defend him. And of course, Jefferson was a freshman and lacked some of the physical strength I think he'll add in the offseason. But I think Jefferson's length and mobility could have bothered Nix a bit-- that's what Mason used to defend him (not bulk).

When Mason went out of the game, Jefferson did not move to center. Further, the lack of a backup center meant that Mason couldn't play all-out defense and couldn't come out of the game. If Jefferson was an option at center last year, we would have seen him there. Clearly he wasn't.


In all events, my point is something different. I think our team will be constructed so much differently next year-- in part because we won't have a star center-- that I'd rather see Duke maximize what we will have (or what we all hope we'll have): speed, length and athleticism.

Black is plenty long and plenty athletic. Adding him as the starting center would maximize our strengths.


I totally agree we could probably use a big body in the paint, at least situationally, if not for long stretches of games, and that Black has more upside and ability than Hairston. So why not add him?

Again - he's not going to be added as a situational big. But at least we agree that he's a clear upgrade at center over Hairston.


But I think Jefferson has more upside than either of those guys, and I'd rather see him play more than either of those guys. In other words, I'd rather see our best players play.

Jefferson possibly has more upside at his position than Black. Possibly. But he does not have more upside next year than Black at center.


I guess I'd also add that in a matchup against the Spartans, one could conceive of Jefferson defending Payne and Parker defending Nix. So I'm not sure it's as one dimensional as the hypothetical you pose.

If we don't get Black, then Parker will almost certainly have to start at center. Jefferson simply will not be able to gain enough weight to play center next year. And if he did gain that weight, I'd worry that it would rob him of his athleticism (much like it appears to have done to Hairston).

But starting Parker on Nix-type players (for the sake of discussion, that includes anyone 260 or heavier) will STILL leave us at a huge disadvantage in size at center. And we'd compound that by also being small at PF (because Parker is our biggest option at PF). Would we make up for that with increased offensive efficiency? Maybe. But why not simply reduce the question mark by adding an athletic, big, physical option to take the primary role at center? Why look for ways to mask the problem when we could potentially address the problem in a way that doesn't detract from what we want to do offensively?

Kedsy
04-25-2013, 11:09 AM
And if he did gain that weight, I'd worry that it would rob him of his athleticism (much like it appears to have done to Hairston).

No disrespect intended to Josh, but a lot of the weight he gained was in his midsection and butt. If Amile puts on weight I imagine most of it would be in his chest and upper arms. Big difference.

Monmouth77
04-25-2013, 12:08 PM
When Mason went out of the game, Jefferson did not move to center. Further, the lack of a backup center meant that Mason couldn't play all-out defense and couldn't come out of the game. If Jefferson was an option at center last year, we would have seen him there. Clearly he wasn't.



Black is plenty long and plenty athletic. Adding him as the starting center would maximize our strengths.



Again - he's not going to be added as a situational big. But at least we agree that he's a clear upgrade at center over Hairston.



Jefferson possibly has more upside at his position than Black. Possibly. But he does not have more upside next year than Black at center.



If we don't get Black, then Parker will almost certainly have to start at center. Jefferson simply will not be able to gain enough weight to play center next year. And if he did gain that weight, I'd worry that it would rob him of his athleticism (much like it appears to have done to Hairston).

But starting Parker on Nix-type players (for the sake of discussion, that includes anyone 260 or heavier) will STILL leave us at a huge disadvantage in size at center. And we'd compound that by also being small at PF (because Parker is our biggest option at PF). Would we make up for that with increased offensive efficiency? Maybe. But why not simply reduce the question mark by adding an athletic, big, physical option to take the primary role at center? Why look for ways to mask the problem when we could potentially address the problem in a way that doesn't detract from what we want to do offensively?

I'm just not all that excited about a guy who couldn't average better than 10 points and 5 rebounds and .6 blocks as a senior playing for a 30-win team in Conference USA. Pretty sure Amile would have put up these numbers as a freshman getting Black's minutes.

I agree with you he can help us in an area of weakness. But how many players are really 260 or heavier?

The hyperventilating about Black is just too much.

Very happy to be proven wrong, when he comes to Duke and turns into Karl Malone.

CDu
04-25-2013, 01:22 PM
I'm just not all that excited about a guy who couldn't average better than 10 points and 5 rebounds and .6 blocks as a senior playing for a 30-win team in Conference USA. Pretty sure Amile would have put up these numbers as a freshman getting Black's minutes.

Jefferson would not have put up those numbers playing center. He certainly would not have put up those numbers playing center with a groin injury (like Black had this year) and playing as part of a team full of good rebounders (Memphis had 5 players average between 4.4 and 6.6 rebounds per game and two more guys average 3+ rebounds per game). And he most certainly wouldn't have done it with the poor coaching at Memphis.

Those count stats simply don't reflect the full picture of what was going on with Black at Memphis. Was he overwhelming there? No. But a BIG part of that was injury and the fact that Memphis plays a ton of big, athletic, capable rebounders who all steal rebounds from each other.


I agree with you he can help us in an area of weakness. But how many players are really 260 or heavier?

I did this run down a couple of weeks ago, but virtually every team in the ACC will start a player at/near that size at C:

BC: Clifford (7'0", 250, coming back from an injury-plagued season last year)
Clemson: Nnoko (245 as a freshman) or Smith (260 as a freshman)
FSU: Turpin (7'0", 225) or Ojo (290 as a freshman)
GT: Miller (257), Carter (245 as a freshman)
UNC: James (260), Meeks (290), McAdoo (230)
NC State: Vandenburg (265) or Anya (255 as a high school senior)
Maryland: Cleare (265), Mitchell (260)
Miami: Jekiri (7'0", 227 as a freshman), Apkejiori (236)
Notre Dame: Sharman (245), Auguste (6'10", 230 as a freshman)
Pitt: Zanna (230)
Syracuse: Coleman (290 as a freshman), Christmas (240 as a sophomore)
UVa: Tobey (6'11", 227 as a freshman), Gill (230 as a freshman two years ago)
VT: Raines (240 but REALLY strong and physical),
Wake: Thomas (240 as a freshman), Cavanaugh (230 as a freshman)

If you're going to assume 10-15 lbs of weight gain for Jefferson (which would still leave him at only 205-210) this summer, then you have to assume the same for all of the other freshmen in the league. That would mean that 9 of the 14 schools should have someone at least 255 at C. Many of those teams would have multiple options at 255+. The other 5 teams would have someone in the neighborhood of 240-245 and/or 7'0" tall.

Very few teams are likely to play small enough that Parker (who will probably play at around 225-230) or Jefferson (at best 210) will be up to size.


The hyperventilating about Black is just too much.

Very happy to be proven wrong, when he comes to Duke and turns into Karl Malone.

Nice straw man. Nobody is suggesting Black is going to come in and be the next Karl Malone. No one is suggesting he needs to do that. We are just suggesting that there is a severe deficiency in terms of guys proven capable of defending at the C spot.

Parker has never played a college game, and played predominantly PF in high school. Jefferson played SF and PF as a freshman, and he was undersized even at PF. He has never played a minute at C in college. Hairston played some C last year, but he is vertically/athletically challenged at that position. Marshall has played less than 200 minutes and will no longer have the offseason to develop his game.

Black, on the other hand, has been a solid-though-clearly-not-spectacular option starting at C for a D-1 tourney team for 3 years. He has the size, strength, and athleticism to handle the position. And perhaps with good coaching (for the first time in his career) he may turn into a very productive role player for us starting at C and defending the rim.

tommy
04-25-2013, 01:23 PM
I'm just not all that excited about a guy who couldn't average better than 10 points and 5 rebounds and .6 blocks as a senior playing for a 30-win team in Conference USA. Pretty sure Amile would have put up these numbers as a freshman getting Black's minutes.

I agree with you he can help us in an area of weakness. But how many players are really 260 or heavier?

Well, quite a few actually. Just from last season's schedule, we faced:

in ACC games:

Reggie Johnson, Miami 6'10" 290
Julian Gamble, Miami 6'10" 250
Daniel Miller, Georgia Tech 6'11" 257
Devin Booker, Clemson 6'8" 250
Charles Mitchell, Maryland 6'8" 260
Alex Len, Maryland 7'1" 255
Shaquille Cleare, Maryland 6'9" 265
Joel James, UNC 6'10" 260
Richard Howell, NC State 6'8" 257
Jordan Vandenberg, NC State 7'1" 264

in non-conference games:

Amir Williams, Ohio Stae 6'11", 250
Evan Ravenel, Ohio State 6'8" 260
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky 7'0" 245
Gregory Echinique, Creighton 6'9" 260
Chane Behanan, Louisville, 6'6" 250


That's a lot of meat on the hoof. It's not about what Amile could have done offensively had he played at Memphis. It's how he's going to be able to defend in the post against guys who outweigh him by 40 or 50 or more pounds.

CDu
04-25-2013, 01:27 PM
I'm just not all that excited about a guy who couldn't average better than 10 points and 5 rebounds and .6 blocks as a senior playing for a 30-win team in Conference USA. Pretty sure Amile would have put up these numbers as a freshman getting Black's minutes.

I agree with you he can help us in an area of weakness. But how many players are really 260 or heavier?

The hyperventilating about Black is just too much.

Very happy to be proven wrong, when he comes to Duke and turns into Karl Malone.

Note: reposted as my response got lost on the previous page:

Jefferson would not have put up Black's numbers playing center. He certainly would not have put up those numbers playing center with a groin injury (like Black had this year) and playing as part of a team full of good rebounders (Memphis had 5 players average between 4.4 and 6.6 rebounds per game and two more guys average 3+ rebounds per game). And he most certainly wouldn't have done it with the poor coaching at Memphis.

Those count stats simply don't reflect the full picture of what was going on with Black at Memphis. Was he overwhelming there? No. But a BIG part of that was injury and the fact that Memphis plays a ton of big, athletic, capable rebounders who all steal rebounds from each other.

As for big bodies, I did this run down a couple of weeks ago, but virtually every team in the ACC will start a player at/near that size at C next year:

BC: Clifford (7'0", 250, coming back from an injury-plagued season last year)
Clemson: Nnoko (245 as a freshman) or Smith (260 as a freshman)
FSU: Turpin (7'0", 225) or Ojo (290 as a freshman)
GT: Miller (257), Carter (245 as a freshman)
UNC: James (260), Meeks (290), McAdoo (230)
NC State: Vandenburg (265) or Anya (255 as a high school senior)
Maryland: Cleare (265), Mitchell (260)
Miami: Jekiri (7'0", 227 as a freshman), Apkejiori (236)
Notre Dame: Sharman (245), Auguste (6'10", 230 as a freshman)
Pitt: Zanna (230)
Syracuse: Coleman (290 as a freshman), Christmas (240 as a sophomore)
UVa: Tobey (6'11", 227 as a freshman), Gill (230 as a freshman two years ago)
VT: Raines (240 but REALLY strong and physical),
Wake: Thomas (240 as a freshman), Cavanaugh (230 as a freshman)

If you're going to assume 10-15 lbs of weight gain for Jefferson (which would still leave him at only 205-210) this summer, then you have to assume the same for all of the other freshmen in the league. That would mean that 9 of the 14 schools should have someone at least 255 at C. Many of those teams would have multiple options at 255+. The other 5 teams would have someone in the neighborhood of 240-245 and/or 7'0" tall.

Very few teams are likely to play small enough that Parker (who will probably play at around 225-230) or Jefferson (at best 210) will be up to size.

And nice straw man with the Karl Malone comment. Nobody is suggesting Black is going to come in and be the next Karl Malone. No one is suggesting he needs to do that. We are just suggesting that there is a severe deficiency in terms of guys proven capable of defending at the C spot.

Parker has never played a college game, and played predominantly PF in high school. Jefferson played SF and PF as a freshman, and he was undersized even at PF. He has never played a minute at C in college. Hairston played some C last year, but he is vertically/athletically challenged at that position. Marshall has played less than 200 minutes and will no longer have the offseason to develop his game.

Black, on the other hand, has been a solid-though-clearly-not-spectacular option starting at C for a D-1 tourney team for 3 years. He has the size, strength, and athleticism to handle the position. And perhaps with good coaching (for the first time in his career) he may turn into a very productive role player for us starting at C and defending the rim.

clinresga
04-25-2013, 01:32 PM
The hyperventilating about Black is just too much.

Wow, CDu's post took the words right out of my mouth. Neither Josh, nor Amile, nor Marshall answers our needs next year, and Black might just do that.

But the proof in my mind, from Zagsblog: "Kansas coach Bill Self visited with Memphis transfer Tarik Black Wednesday night, sources confirmed to SNY.tv.

The 6-foot-9 Black is believed to have also met with Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, Ohio State coach Thad Matta and San Diego State’s Steve Fisher.

According to CBSSports.com, Oregon, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Miami and Minnesota have also tried to get involved or are involved."


So, if it's Monmouth's assessment, versus K's assessment, taking into account who knows our current players' capabilities better, then I have to go with K. He wants Black. So I do too.

Monmouth77
04-25-2013, 02:01 PM
I am happy to be the punching bag here. But go ahead and look back at my comments in this thread.

I agree we should take a shot at landing Black. That comment is in a couple of posts.

My point is that the level of obsession on this particular recruitment is absurdly out of proportion to its significance.

I am not surprised at all that Bill Self or Coach K or anyone else may want to incrementally improve their team with a player who has size, strength and experience at the D1 level, and who could be a nice short term solution in the post (and not an impediment to future recruiting).

And look, if Black shows up and gives us, for example, what Oriakhi gave Mizzou last year, that would be significant. I agree.

But we are arguing at the margins about a guy who has never had a year even as good as Alex Oriakhi did last year.

And Karl Malone is not made of straw.

You may now resume punching.

Kedsy
04-25-2013, 02:36 PM
If you're going to assume 10-15 lbs of weight gain for Jefferson (which would still leave him at only 205-210) this summer, then you have to assume the same for all of the other freshmen in the league.

This is not entirely true. Some part of weight gain happens with age, yes, but I think the stage of body development is a bigger indicator. Amile clearly has grown taller more quickly than his bulk could follow. You can tell that by looking at him. That may or may not be true about a guy who's 6'8, 245 (like Robert Carter). It's not a gimme that a guy whose body is already developed is going to gain 10 or 15 additional good pounds.

Scorp4me
04-25-2013, 03:23 PM
I think most agree we'll have the scoring punch needed next year, but Black could be an important defensive presence at center for us next year. I'm not talking about being the Landlord down low, but it's already been pointed out that the majority of the teams we will face will have some bulk down low. So rather than looking at Black's numbers perhaps we should be looking at the numbers of the guys he played against. I think that's more work than any of us want to do here, but I'm betting the coaching staff has already considered it.

CDu
04-25-2013, 03:41 PM
This is not entirely true. Some part of weight gain happens with age, yes, but I think the stage of body development is a bigger indicator. Amile clearly has grown taller more quickly than his bulk could follow. You can tell that by looking at him. That may or may not be true about a guy who's 6'8, 245 (like Robert Carter). It's not a gimme that a guy whose body is already developed is going to gain 10 or 15 additional good pounds.

That argument works both ways though. Some players have really slender frames that aren't suited to carrying extra weight. An example of this might be CJ Leslie, who played last year (as a junior) at 6'9" and 200-205 lbs. Leslie came in undersized and never could get big. He came to college undersized for the C spot and stayed that way (the difference being that Leslie is taller and more athletic/explosive than Jefferson).

Carter is the other end of the extreme. It is probably true that he is not a guy who is going to add 10-15 lbs next year. But could he add another 5 lbs (putting him at 250)? Certainly seems possible.

However, a guy like Cavanaugh or Thomas (or several other freshmen) could certainly gain weight. Neither seemed close to maxing out their frames. I would even argue that they have more room to max out their frame than Jefferson (who is really skinny).

Henderson
04-25-2013, 05:42 PM
Just having a big body inside makes him valuable from another standpoint: Fouls to give. If MP3 or Josh gets two fouls in the first 10 minutes, we get real small real fast. This guy is a banger and a foul-o-matic, with a foul-per-minute stat that will turn Tyler green with envy. So if our bigs get in early foul trouble, he occupies space for the rest of the first half, picks up 3 fouls in 10 minutes, and we're still OK in the second half. Or reverse it and assume he starts ahead of Josh. Same thing: More fouls to give among the bigs, reducing the necessity to play other guys out of position.

flyingdutchdevil
04-25-2013, 09:58 PM
We have Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Thornton, Dawkins, and hopefully some Jones, Semi, and Murphy thrown in. Those are all players who will be exclusively (or nearly exclusively) at the 1-4 positions. That list is ridiculous. That list - by itself - has an amazing chance of winning it all next year. But how do we increase our odds? Easy - get a 5 who can a) defend opposing 5s, b) provide some decent rebounding (Hood and Parker should help greatly with this), and c) not let opposing teams double-team a player on our 1-4. Right now, nobody on our team fits that billing. In 7 months? Who knows. But what we do know is this: Marshall just had surgery and is out 3-4 months (months which should be used for development if he were healthy); Amile is very thin right now, even for a PF. I expect him to a legitimate 4 (in terms of weight) next year. At the 5? Unless he's injecting himself with Kristie Alley's lipo by-product, I don't think he's going to get at that weight; Hairston is a great backup who is a subpar rebounder and has had issues in the past of guarding players who are significantly larger than he is (remember that Hairston is only 6'7"). A player like Black is so important for defense, rebounding, and preventing double-teams. I'm not saying that he'll be our savior, but if we make it to the Final Four next year, he'll be a big (pun intended) part of the reason why we made it.

Delmer
04-26-2013, 08:38 AM
I think Marshall will surprise some folks next year. He is one hard working young man. I'm sure the surgery will set him back a few months, but he'll be a force to recon (sp?) with.

MCFinARL
04-26-2013, 10:55 AM
I think Marshall will surprise some folks next year. He is one hard working young man. I'm sure the surgery will set him back a few months, but he'll be a force to recon (sp?) with.

I certainly don't question Marshall's attitude; I agree he will do whatever he can--and the medical folks have said he will be ready to play in the fall. But unfortunately, "a few months" is the length of a basketball season. If Marshall is a few months behind in November, he may not be up to full playing speed until midseason, and he will likely not get the amount of playing time that will help him develop further.

I hope that is not true, and that he is able to get back in shape quickly enough to work on developing and improving his game. But I don't think it's a mistake not to count on that.

CDu
04-26-2013, 11:16 AM
I think Marshall will surprise some folks next year. He is one hard working young man. I'm sure the surgery will set him back a few months, but he'll be a force to recon (sp?) with.

I don't think anyone is questioning Marshall's work ethic. The problem is that he lost most of this season with injury, and the surgery he just had will cost him another 3-4 months. So that puts him into the end of July or the end of August. In other words, he will lose the vast majority (if not the entirety) of the time that most players have to develop their games. When he comes back, he'll have classwork and team practice to work on, which will take time from his individual development. So it is hard to see how he'll be ready to make a big impact next year.

And as an FYI, it's "reckoned"

BD80
04-26-2013, 12:32 PM
I don't think anyone is questioning Marshall's work ethic. The problem is that he lost most of this season with injury, and the surgery he just had will cost him another 3-4 months. So that puts him into the end of July or the end of August. In other words, he will lose the vast majority (if not the entirety) of the time that most players have to develop their games. When he comes back, he'll have classwork and team practice to work on, which will take time from his individual development. So it is hard to see how he'll be ready to make a big impact next year. ...

Well, without the ability to run for a while, maybe he'll add a bunch of that weight everybody seems to want our centers to have :rolleyes:

As a redshirt, he is already ahead of his studies, and a summer without camps etc should let him even farther ahead, clearing somewhat his fall/spring academic schedules.

Marshall will also be able to work on upper body strength. While I generally don't think this is as important as lower body strength for post play, it would certainly be a great benefit for Marshall, and it's not like he has to worry about messing with a sweet shooting stroke.

Since what we need from Marshall is post defense and rebounding, this injury might not set him back as much as feared.

Delmer
04-26-2013, 12:33 PM
thanks CDu- I was at a loss as to how to spell it. :) I agree he has some catching up to do- no chance he'll be Karl Malone by the start, but I'll bet he's a solid contributor next season.

CDu
04-26-2013, 02:29 PM
Well, without the ability to run for a while, maybe he'll add a bunch of that weight everybody seems to want our centers to have :rolleyes:

As a redshirt, he is already ahead of his studies, and a summer without camps etc should let him even farther ahead, clearing somewhat his fall/spring academic schedules.

Marshall will also be able to work on upper body strength. While I generally don't think this is as important as lower body strength for post play, it would certainly be a great benefit for Marshall, and it's not like he has to worry about messing with a sweet shooting stroke.

Since what we need from Marshall is post defense and rebounding, this injury might not set him back as much as feared.

I doesn't matter that Plumlee is "ahead" in his academic workload. He's still going to have to take 4 courses next Fall. So he's still going to have coursework that interferes with his time to develop his game.

The summer will still allow him time to get stronger in the upper body, but I don't think upper-body strength was his limitation this past year (I do think it was an issue as a true freshman). Timing, lower-body strength, positioning, defending in the post, knowing where to be and where to set screens on offense, etc., are where he needs work (in addition to his post game). And he won't get to do that work during the one time of year in which he would have the most free time.

It is unequivocally a big setback for Marshall. I'm not saying he can't overcome it, but I wouldn't expect it to happen. And I wouldn't want him burdened with expectations that he won't be able to reach next year.


thanks CDu- I was at a loss as to how to spell it. :) I agree he has some catching up to do- no chance he'll be Karl Malone by the start, but I'll bet he's a solid contributor next season.

No worries - thought I'd help.

As for your thoughts on Marshall, I think you're being a bit optimistic. I see maybe a 10-15 mpg role not unlike Miles' sophomore year. Anything more than that would be fairly surprising to me. Hopefully I'm wrong.

tommy
04-26-2013, 03:22 PM
So rather than looking at Black's numbers perhaps we should be looking at the numbers of the guys he played against. I think that's more work than any of us want to do here, but I'm betting the coaching staff has already considered it.

I took a look, and unless you're going to go back and actually watch video of the games, you really can't do it. Why? The biggest reason is that Black was not a starter this year for Memphis (unlike his first two seasons) as he only started 5 games all year. He averaged about 20 minutes a game off the bench. So when all you have is a boxscore to go by, you can't tell what opponents were in the game when Tarik was in the game, and when the opponents did their scoring. An opposing big had a big night? Did he do so against whatever big guy was the starter for Memphis, or did he do a lot of damage against Black? Can't tell from a box score. It would be somewhat easier had Black been a starter and played 35 minutes. Then it would be reasonable to assume that a significant percentage of the production (or lack thereof) of the opposing center was attributable to Black's defensive performance. Can't do that for a 20 minute per game backup, which is what Tarik was this year.

Bay Area Duke Fan
04-27-2013, 02:14 PM
I wonder why Marshall didn't have the surgery earlier, miss the balance of 2012-13, and be fully ready to play in 2013-14. His playing time this past season was pretty insignificant ... similar to Todd's.

DeBlueDevil
09-18-2013, 05:10 PM
I was just wondering if anyone had any news or updates regarding how Marshall is recovering from his surgery? Just was curious because I hadn't heard anything for a while. Any information is appreciated. Thanks!

dukelifer
09-19-2013, 08:53 AM
I was just wondering if anyone had any news or updates regarding how Marshall is recovering from his surgery? Just was curious because I hadn't heard anything for a while. Any information is appreciated. Thanks!

I only hope he has used the time to become a 75% free throw shooter. The rest is gravy.

GGLC
09-19-2013, 11:15 AM
I only hope he has used the time to become a 75% free throw shooter. The rest is gravy.

Shooting better than 12.5 percent from the floor would be nice, too.

DeBlueDevil
09-19-2013, 02:33 PM
Shooting better than 12.5 percent from the floor would be nice, too.

Yikes ::tough crowd::

I think he could be a very important asset to the team if he could stay healthy and get some quality run on the floor. I guess that's why I've really been keeping an eye out to see if he'll be back by the start of the season.

Especially with the style of play this year. Running up and down. I think he could flourish in this type of system. Clearly just rebounding, defending, and catching lobs.

No one has any news at all?!?!

Dev11
09-19-2013, 02:37 PM
No one has any news at all?!?!

I never ask for news on this board. If there is news, it appears fairly quickly, even if its somebody reporting that they had a casual conversation with someone in the know about a particular situation.

I believe there's an open practice in the next week or two. We'll get plenty of news then.

wk2109
09-19-2013, 02:39 PM
Yikes ::tough crowd::

I think he could be a very important asset to the team if he could stay healthy and get some quality run on the floor. I guess that's why I've really been keeping an eye out to see if he'll be back by the start of the season.

Especially with the style of play this year. Running up and down. I think he could flourish in this type of system. Clearly just rebounding, defending, and catching lobs.

No one has any news at all?!?!

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/dukenow/dukes-rodney-hood-recovered-from-achilles-injury#storylink=rss

"Additionally, redshirt sophomore Marshall Plumlee has been doing individual work and will begin full-court work starting Monday, Krzyzewski said. Plumlee had surery on his left foot on April 23rd."

This article is from Thursday 9/5/13, which means Marshall started full-court work on Monday 9/9/13.

Also, Coach K said during his talk at grad student campout that he's happy because everyone is healthy.

DeBlueDevil
09-19-2013, 03:43 PM
http://blogs.newsobserver.com/dukenow/dukes-rodney-hood-recovered-from-achilles-injury#storylink=rss

"Additionally, redshirt sophomore Marshall Plumlee has been doing individual work and will begin full-court work starting Monday, Krzyzewski said. Plumlee had surery on his left foot on April 23rd."

This article is from Thursday 9/5/13, which means Marshall started full-court work on Monday 9/9/13.

Also, Coach K said during his talk at grad student campout that he's happy because everyone is healthy.

Thanks Wk. That's all I was looking for. Truly appreciated.

Sheesh...

greybeard
09-21-2013, 01:13 AM
I think that Marshall has way more feel for the game, especially the game on the move, than either of his brothers. I think that Miles could be a real contributor on offense, a real threat, if K gears the offense in part to getting Marshall the ball on the move or after he stops having reached a dangerous spot in the paint to which there is a passing lane.

I think that Marshall has the ability to see and set guys up for getting to such spots. Will K have the ball circulated to places where passing lanes exist to get it to Marshall where he can hurt people? Will K run plays that clear space for Marshall, that create help in his coming clear, make looking to him earlier and where he is expected to be? I doubt it. On the other hand, if Marshall begins the season as Duke's sixth man, who knows.

Two final things. This is a team game and the extent to which any single player succeeds depends upon how the others are told to play. Second, Marshall won't define the worst that Duke can play but rather the best.

Just an uncanny intuition talking here based upon a few things from Marshall that really impressed me. I'm sure that stats can be assembled to refute this perspective. The season, not stats or my intuition, will tell. It's time, however, that Duke worked around integrated an intelligent, finesse 7 footer into its offense to see what he can do. Now might well be that time. Grey "I do have a feel for such things) beard

roywhite
09-21-2013, 10:27 AM
I think that Marshall has way more feel for the game, especially the game on the move, than either of his brothers. I think that Miles could be a real contributor on offense, a real threat, if K gears the offense in part to getting Marshall the ball on the move or after he stops having reached a dangerous spot in the paint to which there is a passing lane.



Really? Have we seen the slightest indication of that? In his brief appearances last year, he never seemed in synch with the flow of the game; in high school, he averaged less than 12 points per game, and in high school all-star games was not able to generate much offense.

Now, I hope he is healthy and able to contribute, but the idea that K would "gear the offense in part to getting Marshall the ball on the move" seems:
1. very unlikely
2. not good strategy for a team that has considerable other offensive weapons

Saratoga2
09-21-2013, 10:59 AM
Really? Have we seen the slightest indication of that? In his brief appearances last year, he never seemed in synch with the flow of the game; in high school, he averaged less than 12 points per game, and in high school all-star games was not able to generate much offense.

Now, I hope he is healthy and able to contribute, but the idea that K would "gear the offense in part to getting Marshall the ball on the move" seems:
1. very unlikely
2. not good strategy for a team that has considerable other offensive weapons

Given the performance to date, including his high school days, I would not have expectations of superior performance by Marshall. It would be unfair to him to put those high expectations on his play. On the other hand, he is our only player with the size to compete with the really big players we face and I look forward to him developing as the season progresses. If he can provide defense and rebounding and matchup with big centers, he will help the team succeed.

sagegrouse
09-21-2013, 11:04 AM
I think that Marshall has way more feel for the game, especially the game on the move, than either of his brothers. I think that Miles could be a real contributor on offense, a real threat, if K gears the offense in part to getting Marshall the ball on the move or after he stops having reached a dangerous spot in the paint to which there is a passing lane.

I think that Marshall has the ability to see and set guys up for getting to such spots. Will K have the ball circulated to places where passing lanes exist to get it to Marshall where he can hurt people? Will K run plays that clear space for Marshall, that create help in his coming clear, make looking to him earlier and where he is expected to be? I doubt it. On the other hand, if Marshall begins the season as Duke's sixth man, who knows.

Two final things. This is a team game and the extent to which any single player succeeds depends upon how the others are told to play. Second, Marshall won't define the worst that Duke can play but rather the best.

Just an uncanny intuition talking here based upon a few things from Marshall that really impressed me. I'm sure that stats can be assembled to refute this perspective. The season, not stats or my intuition, will tell. It's time, however, that Duke worked around integrated an intelligent, finesse 7 footer into its offense to see what he can do. Now might well be that time. Grey "I do have a feel for such things) beard

Channeling Smokey Robinson and the Miracles, "I Second that E-Motion." Howsomever, I am having a little trouble with the il-logic.

sage

tommy
09-21-2013, 01:08 PM
It's time, however, that Duke worked around integrated an intelligent, finesse 7 footer into its offense to see what he can do. Now might well be that time. Grey "I do have a feel for such things) beard

You do? Then you somehow must've missed last year's team's offensive focus on our athletic 7-foot center who averaged 17 ppg and was an All-American.

When K has a big man with scoring skills, he gets him the ball. He's proven that over and over. As for Marshall, if he turns out to be capable of being an offensive force, great. K will take advantage of those skills. But as of now, I agree with roywhite. Marshall didn't show us anything last year in the very limited minutes he got.

jipops
09-21-2013, 02:19 PM
Really? Have we seen the slightest indication of that? In his brief appearances last year, he never seemed in synch with the flow of the game; in high school, he averaged less than 12 points per game, and in high school all-star games was not able to generate much offense.

Now, I hope he is healthy and able to contribute, but the idea that K would "gear the offense in part to getting Marshall the ball on the move" seems:
1. very unlikely
2. not good strategy for a team that has considerable other offensive weapons

I agree. To date Marshall has shown great energy but very little poise. He seemed overly hyper whenever he got any touches. My hopes for him are on the defensive end, that is where he can help us the most. I don't see K running any plays for him with all the other scorers.

DukieInBrasil
09-21-2013, 05:20 PM
You do? Then you somehow must've missed last year's team's offensive focus on our athletic 7-foot center who averaged 17 ppg and was an All-American.

When K has a big man with scoring skills, he gets him the ball. He's proven that over and over. As for Marshall, if he turns out to be capable of being an offensive force, great. K will take advantage of those skills. But as of now, I agree with roywhite. Marshall didn't show us anything last year in the very limited minutes he got.

I don't think anyone would describe Mason as a "finesse" big guy. And just to pick nits, Mason was not 7'0, but 6'10, while Marshall has at various times been listed as 7'0. I agree withe rest of what you say, but you were tearing down a straw man b/c GB didn't say that Marshall was an athletic 7'0, but a finesse one. I'm not really sure i agree with GB on that, in that i'm not really sure i saw finesse out of MP3, but rather i saw a kid who was unable to reliably hit lay-ups and tip shots and was so un-finesse that he missed every FT he took last year.
Even so, I hope MP3 stays healthy all year and is able to give the team a 7'0 presence, cuz we won't have anyone else who can do that.

azzefkram
09-21-2013, 05:28 PM
Really? Have we seen the slightest indication of that? In his brief appearances last year, he never seemed in synch with the flow of the game; in high school, he averaged less than 12 points per game, and in high school all-star games was not able to generate much offense.

Now, I hope he is healthy and able to contribute, but the idea that K would "gear the offense in part to getting Marshall the ball on the move" seems:
1. very unlikely
2. not good strategy for a team that has considerable other offensive weapons

We can deduce almost nothing from 50 garbage time minutes spread over 19 appearances for a player likely playing with a nagging foot injury. PPG and how he scored in AS games probably means even less. I think GB may be a tad overly optimistic but I'd rather see that then some of the negativism directed MP3's way. Coach did say he was the sixth best player on last year's team. Some may chalk that up to coachspeak but I think it's a bit too much. I think Marshall is going to be a valuable member of Duke Basketball, maybe this year, maybe his junior and senior years.

I agree that 1 is unlikely but if (granted it's a huge if) MP3 is as capable as GB hopes, it would be a excellent strategy since it would make our other considerable offensive weapons better.

jipops
09-21-2013, 09:36 PM
I don't think anyone would describe Mason as a "finesse" big guy. And just to pick nits, Mason was not 7'0, but 6'10, while Marshall has at various times been listed as 7'0.

To further pick that nit, Mason measured in at 6-11.25 without shoes at the NBA combine.

CALVET
09-21-2013, 10:21 PM
We can deduce almost nothing from 50 garbage time minutes spread over 19 appearances for a player likely playing with a nagging foot injury. PPG and how he scored in AS games probably means even less. I think GB may be a tad overly optimistic but I'd rather see that then some of the negativism directed MP3's way. Coach did say he was the sixth best player on last year's team. Some may chalk that up to coachspeak but I think it's a bit too much. I think Marshall is going to be a valuable member of Duke Basketball, maybe this year, maybe his junior and senior years.

I agree that 1 is unlikely but if (granted it's a huge if) MP3 is as capable as GB hopes, it would be a excellent strategy since it would make our other considerable offensive weapons better.

Maybe this belongs in another thread, but are there stats out there to show if anyone other than Marshall guarded the opposing center position without Mason or Ryan on the floor? In other words, did Amile, Josh, (or Alex) guard the 5 as the biggest guy on the floor last season?

Edouble
09-22-2013, 12:25 PM
Maybe this belongs in another thread, but are there stats out there to show if anyone other than Marshall guarded the opposing center position without Mason or Ryan on the floor? In other words, did Amile, Josh, (or Alex) guard the 5 as the biggest guy on the floor last season?

Are there stats to show that? Well, yeah...

But short answer... I would say a pretty clear yes, as there were several games that Ryan was out where Mason and Marshall's minutes don't add up to 40. Plus a couple where Ryan was out, Mason played less than 40 minutes, and Marshall DNP. Not gonna type all the stats here, but a quick check of game stats at GoDuke.com yields a reliable enough answer.

Indoor66
09-22-2013, 12:46 PM
Are there stats to show that? Well, yeah...

But short answer... I would say a pretty clear yes, as there were several games that Ryan was out where Mason and Marshall's minutes don't add up to 40. Plus a couple where Ryan was out, Mason played less than 40 minutes, and Marshall DNP. Not gonna type all the stats here, but a quick check of game stats at GoDuke.com yields a reliable enough answer.

And what is the meaning of these short periods of not having a player on the court that is taller than 6'9.75"? What was the makeup of the other team during these periods? Is there any meaningful data in the data?

CALVET
09-22-2013, 04:25 PM
And what is the meaning of these short periods of not having a player on the court that is taller than 6'9.75"? What was the makeup of the other team during these periods? Is there any meaningful data in the data?


I suppose I should've clarified my inquiry to indicate "meaningful" minutes. At the risk of sounding anal and ignoring intangibles, draftexpress lists Marshall's standing reach as 8'9.5" (not good for a seven footer) and Jabari's at 8'8", so with longer arms, I suspect Amile's might be 8'10". Although Amile is a scrapper and clever with the ball down low, neither Jabari or Amile are great leapers or beasts strengthwise so having them both down low for extended stretches will be interesting. I don't they'll go zone to cover because that goes against K's philosophy of winning the 3-point battle and I believe that, because of the mobility this year, exploiting the lack of size in the middle with his man-on defensive scheme will require a really good offensive big man like Alex Len. Any idea how many centers of his caliber on the schedule?

DukieInBrasil
09-22-2013, 07:50 PM
To further pick that nit, Mason measured in at 6-11.25 without shoes at the NBA combine.

or 6'10 according to Duke over his 4 years (t)here. Either way.

MartyClark
09-22-2013, 09:11 PM
or 6'10 according to Duke over his 4 years (t)here. Either way.

Feel free to disagree, but I think it makes little difference whether MPIII is 6'9" or 7'1" The issue is whether he can play. Can he box out? Can he anticipate the rebound? Does he have the quickness to get there? Anticipation? Good hands? Touch? Jumping ability? College basketball is dynamic and athletic. Raw height, especially a difference of 3" is a minor factor.

I'm rooting for the young man. Haven't seen enough to answer any of my own questions.

jimsumner
09-22-2013, 09:33 PM
or 6'10 according to Duke over his 4 years (t)here. Either way.

Mason was always listed at 6-10.

Doesn't mean he was 6-10.

Not sure it means much re: Marshall. But he is taller than he was listed.

wilko
09-22-2013, 11:33 PM
So is he bench pressing Lincolns? Doing flies with Pintos?
Im ready to see him Hulk out.

Dev11
09-23-2013, 11:54 AM
Mason was always listed at 6-10.

Doesn't mean he was 6-10.

Not sure it means much re: Marshall. But he is taller than he was listed.

I recall a discussion here about how Mason would rather be showcased as a mobile big, so being listed as a 7-footer would deter people from thinking that way about him. 7-footers are 'supposed' to stand down low and wait their turn for boards or points.

jimsumner
09-23-2013, 12:11 PM
I recall a discussion here about how Mason would rather be showcased as a mobile big, so being listed as a 7-footer would deter people from thinking that way about him. 7-footers are 'supposed' to stand down low and wait their turn for boards or points.

Dean Smith refused to let his players be listed at 7-feet or taller because he thought that placed unrealistic expectations on their 6-11 15/16 heads.

greybeard
09-23-2013, 02:52 PM
Really? Have we seen the slightest indication of that? In his brief appearances last year, he never seemed in synch with the flow of the game; in high school, he averaged less than 12 points per game, and in high school all-star games was not able to generate much offense.

Now, I hope he is healthy and able to contribute, but the idea that K would "gear the offense in part to getting Marshall the ball on the move" seems:
1. very unlikely
2. not good strategy for a team that has considerable other offensive weapons

We'll see. As for what you and I saw, it depends what you are looking for. If a guy's looking for red heads. he might miss some really fine ladies with a different color hair. During the few touches that Marshall had, and the moves he made without getting touches and how he moved on those occasions, I stand by what I said. On the other hand,

I think that you will fine in an earlier post on this thread that running an offense that would implementing a style of play that would facilitate that kind of inside play is not K's style; in fact, in the years I've been watching, he has never done it. Given the outside strength on this year's team, I doubt that that will change. I think that that is a shame. Not only do I enjoy watching offense that plays through a center on the move, aka Butler in Duke's championship yea, but I think that Duke could go farther if they had that style of play in its arsenal.

If you watch a replay of the Duk-Butler game, you will see that K got Zoubek inside on the move twice in the first few minutes and Zoubek scored twice. Why K did not stop going into Zoubek in that manner until Buttler deployed so that they stopped his inside scores, I don't know. Maybe that style of play just isn't K's style, or maybe after 4 years of not going inside to Zoubek in that manner, he just didn't trust the team to play through Zoubek and have Zoubek making pass/shoot decisions for his (K's) team. At any rate, I am sure that K had his reasons and that they were sound. They did after all work.

flyingdutchdevil
09-23-2013, 03:19 PM
We'll see. As for what you and I saw, it depends what you are looking for. If a guy's looking for red heads. he might miss some really fine ladies with a different color hair. During the few touches that Marshall had, and the moves he made without getting touches and how he moved on those occasions, I stand by what I said. On the other hand,

I think that you will fine in an earlier post on this thread that running an offense that would implementing a style of play that would facilitate that kind of inside play is not K's style; in fact, in the years I've been watching, he has never done it. Given the outside strength on this year's team, I doubt that that will change. I think that that is a shame. Not only do I enjoy watching offense that plays through a center on the move, aka Butler in Duke's championship yea, but I think that Duke could go farther if they had that style of play in its arsenal.

If you watch a replay of the Duk-Butler game, you will see that K got Zoubek inside on the move twice in the first few minutes and Zoubek scored twice. Why K did not stop going into Zoubek in that manner until Buttler deployed so that they stopped his inside scores, I don't know. Maybe that style of play just isn't K's style, or maybe after 4 years of not going inside to Zoubek in that manner, he just didn't trust the team to play through Zoubek and have Zoubek making pass/shoot decisions for his (K's) team. At any rate, I am sure that K had his reasons and that they were sound. They did after all work.

Based on the few touches that Marshall had, and the moves he made without getting touches and how he moved on those occasions, I'd say that Marshall would never get off the bench!

Last year was not a good year for Marshall. He was obviously injured, but the time that he did see was a disaster. He only played 2.6 min a game, shot 12.5% from the floor, and didn't make one free throw all year (he shot 8 all year). From a stats perspective, the only good thing is rebounding, where he got 0.6 rebounds in those 2.6 mins (equates to a really good 9.2 rebounds per 40 min).

The best thing about freshman is that they become sophomores, and Marshall will be a red shirt sophomore next year. He's had time to develop, and I expect big things from Marshall, but last year is not a telling sign of things to come (God I hope it isn't, at least).

Kedsy
09-23-2013, 04:03 PM
(equates to a really good 9.2 rebounds per 40 min)

Actually, 9.2 rebounds per 40 is adequate, but not really good. Amile had 9.1 rebounds per 40 this past season, so not really any difference there. If you want really good rebounds per 40, look at Brian Zoubek -- as a freshman he had 12.1 rebounds per 40; 13.1 as a sophomore; 12.5 as a junior; and 16.6 as a senior.

Rebounds per 40 isn't really the best metric here anyway. I'd argue rebound percentage (percentage of available rebounds grabbed during a guy's time on the court) gives a better view. And using that, Marshall's numbers again are adequate but not really good. To be in the top 10 of the ACC for example, you'd need a 20+ defensive rebounding percentage and an 11+ offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall's defensive rebounding percentage of 13.4% was a little worse than Amile's 13.8%. That number would be pretty good for a guard (Brandon Reed: 15.5%; Dez Wells: 14.5%; Michael Snaer: 13.7%) but not for a 7-footer. Marshall's offensive rebounding percentage of 12.2% actually is pretty good, but still behind Amile's 12.7%.

Hopefully, Marshall will improve on those numbers this year and be ready for a major contribution in 2014-15.

CDu
09-23-2013, 06:45 PM
We'll see. As for what you and I saw, it depends what you are looking for. If a guy's looking for red heads. he might miss some really fine ladies with a different color hair. During the few touches that Marshall had, and the moves he made without getting touches and how he moved on those occasions, I stand by what I said. On the other hand,

I think that you will fine in an earlier post on this thread that running an offense that would implementing a style of play that would facilitate that kind of inside play is not K's style; in fact, in the years I've been watching, he has never done it. Given the outside strength on this year's team, I doubt that that will change. I think that that is a shame. Not only do I enjoy watching offense that plays through a center on the move, aka Butler in Duke's championship yea, but I think that Duke could go farther if they had that style of play in its arsenal.

I think you are guilty of seeing what you want to see, both in terms of Marshall and in terms of the Duke 2010 championship team. Marshall simply showed no offensive fluidity, finesse, or skill last year. That's not to say he has no fluidity, finesse, or skill. It's just that, in his limited minutes, he didn't ever show it. To come away with any feeling of certainty that he can produce on offense just seems like believing what you want to believe in spite of the evidence (or lack thereof).

As for the 2010 championship game, that Duke team most certainly did not play "through a center on the move" in that game. The offense was run through the big 3. Zoubek had a very minimal part of the offensive gameplan (at least in terms of getting touches - he was a huge part of the game with his screens and rebounding).


If you watch a replay of the Duk-Butler game, you will see that K got Zoubek inside on the move twice in the first few minutes and Zoubek scored twice. Why K did not stop going into Zoubek in that manner until Buttler deployed so that they stopped his inside scores, I don't know. Maybe that style of play just isn't K's style, or maybe after 4 years of not going inside to Zoubek in that manner, he just didn't trust the team to play through Zoubek and have Zoubek making pass/shoot decisions for his (K's) team. At any rate, I am sure that K had his reasons and that they were sound. They did after all work.

Interesting that you would bring up the championship game. I think perhaps you should watch a replay of that game, because your take on the game is just not accurate at all.

Zoubek got his first shot with about 18:30 in the half. It was not a pass "on the move." On the contrary, it was a classic post entry on the left block. Zoubek turned into the lane and shot (and missed) a jump hook. Zoubek's first basket came on a tip in of a Lance Thomas missed jumper. He then didn't score again until the 12:42 mark, when he was fouled after an offensive rebound (he made 1 of 2). Zoubek scored again on an unassisted layup with 7:00 to go in the half. That play was again a classic post entry on the left block, and Zoubek just backed his man down to get a layup. His final bucket (not counting the free throw at the end) was midway through the second half. It was a blown inbounds play in which Zoubek set a low-block screen for Singler and both defenders chased Singler. This left Zoubek wide open under the basket, and Scheyer handed him the inbounds for an easy layup.

Not one of Zoubek's FG attempts could be classified as getting him the ball on the move. They were all virtually stationary - either on a post-up, a tip-in, or a blown defensive assignment. And it certainly wasn't a case where we had success getting him the ball early and then went away from it. Coach K didn't choose to stop going to Zoubek, mainly because he rarely went to Zoubek in the first place. And frankly, that was for the best. That team operated almost exclusively on the offensive prowess of the big 3. Zoubek and Thomas (and the Plumlees and occasionally Dawkins) contributed as needed, but most of their contributions were rebounding, screen setting, and/or interior defense. Zoubek, in particular, provided most of his value as an otherwordly rebounding machine. But he was at no point a focal point of the offense, and we most certainly didn't ever try to get him the ball on the move. Frankly, I think that would have been a disaster. He played hard, but he just wasn't the most coordinated player. He really needed to be settled when he got the ball, otherwise he'd likely commit a turnover.

Des Esseintes
09-23-2013, 07:49 PM
I think you are guilty of seeing what you want to see, both in terms of Marshall and in terms of the Duke 2010 championship team. Marshall simply showed no offensive fluidity, finesse, or skill last year. That's not to say he has no fluidity, finesse, or skill. It's just that, in his limited minutes, he didn't ever show it. To come away with any feeling of certainty that he can produce on offense just seems like believing what you want to believe in spite of the evidence (or lack thereof).

As for the 2010 championship game, that Duke team most certainly did not play "through a center on the move" in that game. The offense was run through the big 3. Zoubek had a very minimal part of the offensive gameplan (at least in terms of getting touches - he was a huge part of the game with his screens and rebounding).



Interesting that you would bring up the championship game. I think perhaps you should watch a replay of that game, because your take on the game is just not accurate at all.

Zoubek got his first shot with about 18:30 in the half. It was not a pass "on the move." On the contrary, it was a classic post entry on the left block. Zoubek turned into the lane and shot (and missed) a jump hook. Zoubek's first basket came on a tip in of a Lance Thomas missed jumper. He then didn't score again until the 12:42 mark, when he was fouled after an offensive rebound (he made 1 of 2). Zoubek scored again on an unassisted layup with 7:00 to go in the half. That play was again a classic post entry on the left block, and Zoubek just backed his man down to get a layup. His final bucket (not counting the free throw at the end) was midway through the second half. It was a blown inbounds play in which Zoubek set a low-block screen for Singler and both defenders chased Singler. This left Zoubek wide open under the basket, and Scheyer handed him the inbounds for an easy layup.

Not one of Zoubek's FG attempts could be classified as getting him the ball on the move. They were all virtually stationary - either on a post-up, a tip-in, or a blown defensive assignment. And it certainly wasn't a case where we had success getting him the ball early and then went away from it. Coach K didn't choose to stop going to Zoubek, mainly because he rarely went to Zoubek in the first place. And frankly, that was for the best. That team operated almost exclusively on the offensive prowess of the big 3. Zoubek and Thomas (and the Plumlees and occasionally Dawkins) contributed as needed, but most of their contributions were rebounding, screen setting, and/or interior defense. Zoubek, in particular, provided most of his value as an otherwordly rebounding machine. But he was at no point a focal point of the offense, and we most certainly didn't ever try to get him the ball on the move. Frankly, I think that would have been a disaster. He played hard, but he just wasn't the most coordinated player. He really needed to be settled when he got the ball, otherwise he'd likely commit a turnover.

I think there is a misunderstanding here. You are referencing the Duke-Butler title game played in April 2010 in Indianapolis. But greybeard is referring to the Duke-Butler game played in the Hypernexx Arena on Planet Blonktar of the Neverscape. In that contest, Butler came out ahead 93 to 80-blonk.

77devil
09-23-2013, 08:08 PM
I think there is a misunderstanding here. You are referencing the Duke-Butler title game played in April 2010 in Indianapolis. But greybeard is referring to the Duke-Butler game played in the Hypernexx Arena on Planet Blonktar of the Neverscape. In that contest, Butler came out ahead 93 to 80-blonk.

Thank goodness I had put my wine glass down. I'm still chucking. And yes it is so true. I'm not sure why others bother to respond to the drivel.

greybeard
09-25-2013, 12:09 AM
Based on the few touches that Marshall had, and the moves he made without getting touches and how he moved on those occasions, I'd say that Marshall would never get off the bench!

Last year was not a good year for Marshall. He was obviously injured, but the time that he did see was a disaster. He only played 2.6 min a game, shot 12.5% from the floor, and didn't make one free throw all year (he shot 8 all year). From a stats perspective, the only good thing is rebounding, where he got 0.6 rebounds in those 2.6 mins (equates to a really good 9.2 rebounds per 40 min).

The best thing about freshman is that they become sophomores, and Marshall will be a red shirt sophomore next year. He's had time to develop, and I expect big things from Marshall, but last year is not a telling sign of things to come (God I hope it isn't, at least).

Conventional wisdom was the same about Zoubek. I wrote back then the same thing that I wrote about Marshall now, I saw an uncanny ability to read the court, the movement of the ball and players, all out in front of him, and get to space as a passing lane opened. Good passing to the inside to suit Zoubek's high end reads and ability to set the defender up to defend the baseline, grab an edge with a dart to the middle of the lane I believe would have made him a double digit scorer. His senior year when Duke got him the ball on the move he destroyed people. Duke plaed to an incredible outside game, not of whom looked inside to get it to Zoubek, who wasn;t even on the mve most of the time, except for an amazing displace of setting exterior screen atfter exterios screen,. That display of screening showed that Zoubek say the game at an very, very high level. That screen game won Duke a national championship.

How many people called that. When a friend of mine told K about how I saw things, K broke into a big grin. Marshll can play the inside game but he needs to be on the move and get it when space is about to happen. He can't play shield and hold, which is what you guys look for in a big guy. He sees and has a feel for the game that is considerably more sophisticated/ advanced than his brothers. Think Zeller, Burleson here sports fans. Not Miles, Mason, and a slew of shield and hold inside players that have succeeded at Duke.

DukieInBrasil
09-25-2013, 07:22 AM
When a friend of mine told K about how I saw things, K broke into a big grin. Marshll can play the inside game but he needs to be on the move and get it when space is about to happen. He can't play shield and hold, which is what you guys look for in a big guy. He sees and has a feel for the game that is considerably more sophisticated/ advanced than his brothers. Think Zeller, Burleson here sports fans. Not Miles, Mason, and a slew of shield and hold inside players that have succeeded at Duke.

Marshall certainly has a reputation for being a more intuitive post player than either of his brothers, and i hope he shows it before he's done at Duke. I doubt that it'll be this year b/c there's just so much offensive talent in front of him and he still needs to develop some of those inside skills for the collegiate level.
I'm not sure i see what you see in MP3, but i think his inside game will be a big positive for Duke at some point, just probably not this year. Even if he only sees the court for a few minutes a game this year, he'll be such a huge change from our other post options that he may alter the flow of the game for those few minutes.

JasonEvans
09-25-2013, 08:26 AM
Dean Smith refused to let his players be listed at 7-feet or taller because he thought that placed unrealistic expectations on their 6-11 15/16 heads.

And then, along came Matt Wenstrom and Dean finally had someone who could live up to the expectations of being a 7-footer!

Wenstrom, a freshman in 1989, was listed at 7-1. After he arrived at Chapel Hill Dean promptly brought in Eric Montross and Kevin Salvadori, both of whom were listed at 7-0. They were followed by Serge Zwicker, who was listed at 7-2!!

-Jason "and then there was Warren Martin, listed at 6-11 but with the arms of a man 8-3!" Evans

jimsumner
09-25-2013, 11:06 AM
And then, along came Matt Wenstrom and Dean finally had someone who could live up to the expectations of being a 7-footer!

Wenstrom, a freshman in 1989, was listed at 7-1. After he arrived at Chapel Hill Dean promptly brought in Eric Montross and Kevin Salvadori, both of whom were listed at 7-0. They were followed by Serge Zwicker, who was listed at 7-2!!

-Jason "and then there was Warren Martin, listed at 6-11 but with the arms of a man 8-3!" Evans

I think even Smith realized how absurd it had become with Brad Daugherty, who was listed at something like 6-11 3/4 or 6-11 7/8 or some such.

The subterfuge was first used on Rusty Clark, an exact contemporary of Lew Alcindor. Because otherwise, we would have confused Clark for Alcindor. :)

Indoor66
09-25-2013, 11:34 AM
Because otherwise, we would have confused Clark for Alcindor. :)

And that was because of hair color.... :p :cool:

sagegrouse
09-25-2013, 11:47 AM
I think even Smith realized how absurd it had become with Brad Daugherty, who was listed at something like 6-11 3/4 or 6-11 7/8 or some such.

The subterfuge was first used on Rusty Clark, an exact contemporary of Lew Alcindor. Because otherwise, we would have confused Clark for Alcindor. :)

Bubas apparently decided this was a good idea, as well.

In the 1961-1962 season, Soph. C Jay Buckley was listed at 6-11; Freshman C Hack Tison was listed at 7-0. The following season, the Final Four 1962-63 team, and thereafter, both were listed at 6-10.

sagegrouse
'Yes, I know that the Go.Duke.com roster for 1961-62 lists Jay as 6-10, but IIRC (and there is always a first time), the printed program and the pregame intros said 6-11'