Who will be Duke's best player next year, and will he be best in the country?

[CDu]

As a spinoff of the "will Quinn Cook be the best PG in college basketball next year?" thread (and thanks to sagegrouse for spurring the topic in that thread), I thought it would be interesting to tackle these two questions:

1. Who will be Duke's best player next year?
2. Will Duke have the best player in the country next year?

Question 1: I'd submit that four players should be in the discussion for Duke's best player next year (Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker). Honestly, I could see an argument for any one of them, but my suspicion is that it will be Parker. Parker didn't have a good shooting night in the McDonald's game this year, you could see the talent. He can create his own shot from anywhere on the court. He is a smart defender and can block shots. He is a better athlete than I had thought (not an incredibly explosive guy, but still pretty athletic for a 6'9" forward). But it's his total game that is so impressive. He's a good rebounder (tied for game-high in rebounds), willing and capable defender (he took on the tough task of guarding Wiggins, which resulted in him fouling out, but did tie for the game high in blocks and steals), good passer (added 3 assists from the PF spot), and of course can score. And while this isn't all oh him, his teams just seem to win (4 state titles in Illinois).

That being said, one could certainly see any of Cook, Sulaimon, and Hood earning that honor as well. It's a nice luxury to have 3 guys so capable of pushing Parker (who is going to be fantastic).

Question 2: Will Duke's best also be the nation's best? If Burke and Carter-Williams go pro, then I don't know that any of the returning players make a clear case for the nation's best player (at least not relative to any of our guys). So might it be that the best player will be a freshman? Wiggins certainly has a case, as does Aaron Gordon of Arizona. Randle is another possibility. But will the crowd at Kentucky help or hurt (they also have Dakari Johnson and the selfish Harrison twins and maybe even Wiggins)? My feeling is that whomever is best for Duke next year should probably be in the discussion for best in the country.

[vick]

Question 2: Will Duke's best also be the nation's best? If Burke and Carter-Williams go pro, then I don't know that any of the returning players make a clear case for the nation's best player (at least not relative to any of our guys). So might it be that the best player will be a freshman? Wiggins certainly has a case, as does Aaron Gordon of Arizona. Randle is another possibility. But will the crowd at Kentucky help or hurt (they also have Dakari Johnson and the selfish Harrison twins and maybe even Wiggins)? My feeling is that whomever is best for Duke next year should probably be in the discussion for best in the country.

If he comes back, and my understanding is that it's an open question at this point, I'd put Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as my extremely-early frontrunner for best player in the country over any of Duke's guys.

[bbosbbos]

But hard to answer.

1. Hood could be the best player. 1 yr sec & 1 yr Duke will be good for him to develop into a great player. Parker's talent advantage maybe could not compensate that experience difference. Pure speculation tho.

2. Many soph could make huge jump in this summer. MSU Harris, several Michigan players including McGary, Gators Young, many many others. Very difficult to predict at this time point.

[Kedsy]

If he comes back, and my understanding is that it's an open question at this point, I'd put Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as my extremely-early frontrunner for best player in the country over any of Duke's guys.

Certainly he'll be in the discussion for best name in the country.

[Wander]

McDermott hasn't declared yet, has he? He'd easily be one of the favorites and ahead of any of our guys in the preseason, I think.

[CDu]

McDermott hasn't declared yet, has he? He'd easily be one of the favorites and ahead of any of our guys in the preseason, I think.

Yes, if Caldwell-Pope and McDermott stay, they'll be on the VERY short list. I think Parker could be better than either (yes - even possibly over McDermott). But I do think they would be near the top of the list.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if either decided to go pro.

[roywhite]

My .02:

Duke's best player next year (not by a great margin) will be Jabari Parker.

He will be one of the 10 best players in the country, and given good health, very possibly one of 3-4 best players in the country.

[CDu]

My .02:

Duke's best player next year (not by a great margin) will be Jabari Parker.

He will be one of the 10 best players in the country, and given good health, very possibly one of 3-4 best players in the country.

I completely agree. I think Parker will be our best player, edging out the other three guys (who will all be very good as well). And I think he'll be in the discussion for 1st Team All-American, if not player of the year.

[vick]

Yes, if Caldwell-Pope and McDermott stay, they'll be on the VERY short list. I think Parker could be better than either (yes - even possibly over McDermott). But I do think they would be near the top of the list.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if either decided to go pro.

Another guy who could sneak up there, and it kills me to say this, is P. J. Hairston. In the 13 games after he was inserted into the starting lineup, he averaged 18.2 PPG and 5.5 RPG, to go along with nearly 2 SPG. He was pretty efficient doing this because he shot a lot of 3s and hit over 40% of them, and averaged less than one turnover per game. If UNC is a top-10 team next year, and Hairston plays at or above that level (and he picks up his defensive game), I think he'll be in a fair number of all-American team discussions.

[ncexnyc]

I like Rasheed as next year's top Duke player. Mr. Parker could push him, but I believe we'll see the ball a lot more in Sheed's hands than we will in Jabari's.

Not usre I buy into the Rodney Hood hype. Sure, he had a very nice SEC freshman year and he's got a year in our system on the bench and in practice, but Alex and Marshall have had two and you see what they've done. Now I realize the talent may be a lot greater, but then I recall all the talk about Seth being one of the best players in 2010 and it took him some time to get going.

No, Rasheed should be a little stronger going to the rim this season, his handle will be even better, and I believe he will be our true stud next year.

[BD80]

Another guy who could sneak up there, and it kills me to say this, is P. J. Hairston. In the 13 games after he was inserted into the starting lineup, he averaged 18.2 PPG and 5.5 RPG, to go along with nearly 2 SPG. He was pretty efficient doing this because he shot a lot of 3s and hit over 40% of them, and averaged less than one turnover per game. If UNC is a top-10 team next year, and Hairston plays at or above that level (and he picks up his defensive game), I think he'll be in a fair number of all-American team discussions.

He may have difficulty in several respects:

The weight of tar heel faithful can be extremely burdensome, leading to fatigue and sloped shoulders,

multiple severe lacerations about the hands and arms fighting for the ball in practices and games (with teammates) - with occasional ripped nail,

potential hernia ramifications from toting around enlarged ego,

severe compression trauma to bones, organs and joints upon first loss to lower ranked opponent (along with dermal disfigurement in bus tire pattern),

and last, but not least: PTSD that will cause flinching and spasms at the sounds of buses or upon hearing the phrase "dadgummit"

[daveyro]

He may have difficulty in several respects:

The weight of tar heel faithful can be extremely burdensome, leading to fatigue and sloped shoulders,

multiple severe lacerations about the hands and arms fighting for the ball in practices and games (with teammates) - with occasional ripped nail,

potential hernia ramifications from toting around enlarged ego,

severe compression trauma to bones, organs and joints upon first loss to lower ranked opponent (along with dermal disfigurement in bus tire pattern),

and last, but not least: PTSD that will cause flinching and spasms at the sounds of buses or upon hearing the phrase "dadgummit"


I'd add to your list severe rashes breaking out when glancing to the bench and seeing Hucklebury Hound loping around and speaking in tongues

[turnandburn55]

I look at our situation as roughly analagous to 2004 (not a very similar team in construct, but similar in that there will be a lot of players with equally important levels of contribution).

Who was our best player that year? Well, Chris Duhon was the emotional leader (not to mention the hero of the UNC game), by far the leader in minutes played, and the only first-team all-ACC, as well as first-team ACC on defense. JJ Redick was the leading scorer (though not by a lot) and narrowly missed first-team. Shelden Williams was also second-team all-ACC, first team on defense, and his shot-blocking needs no discussion.

But a strong argument could be made that by the end of the year, our best player was Luol Deng based on overall talent and the matchup nightmare he presented-- even though he was a third-team all-ACC behind the other three.

I could see a similar pattern emerge next year with Sheed and Cook coming out of the gate red-hot, but by the second half of the ACC season, it's becoming rapidly obvious that Jabari Parker is our best weapon.

[duke09hms]

I look at our situation as roughly analagous to 2004 (not a very similar team in construct, but similar in that there will be a lot of players with equally important levels of contribution).

Who was our best player that year? Well, Chris Duhon was the emotional leader (not to mention the hero of the UNC game), by far the leader in minutes played, and the only first-team all-ACC, as well as first-team ACC on defense. JJ Redick was the leading scorer (though not by a lot) and narrowly missed first-team. Shelden Williams was also second-team all-ACC, first team on defense, and his shot-blocking needs no discussion.

But a strong argument could be made that by the end of the year, our best player was Luol Deng based on overall talent and the matchup nightmare he presented-- even though he was a third-team all-ACC behind the other three.

I could see a similar pattern emerge next year with Sheed and Cook coming out of the gate red-hot, but by the second half of the ACC season, it's becoming rapidly obvious that Jabari Parker is our best weapon.

Unfortunately also roughly analogous in that we have an even thinner post rotation than '04 and nothing approaching Shelden. I hope this glaring deficiency doesn't cost us big time again.

[Turtleboy]

Certainly he'll be in the discussion for best name in the country.Him and The Player Formerly Known as Mousecop.

[dukeballer2294]

Sam Dekker of Wisconsin, remember the name.

[rsvman]

Him and The Player Formerly Known as Mousecop.

Torq Lewith, maybe?

[superdave]

Him and The Player Formerly Known as Mousecop.

We should put all these names from the Key & Peale sketch (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gODZzSOelss)into a thread and vote on the best. We've got 6.782 months to kill until Midnight Madness....

[NSDukeFan]

We should put all these names from the Key & Peale sketch (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gODZzSOelss)into a thread and vote on the best. We've got 6.782 months to kill until Midnight Madness....

Tell me it's only 6.781 months to go now.

[licc85]

Parker is the best player on the team, no doubt. However, I don't forsee him getting huge support for player of the year unless we just go on an absolute tear and go undefeated in the ACC or something. Paker seems like a very team oriented player, and isn't going to put up massive stats like some other guys out there will. McDermott will probably average 25+ a game and almost assuredly be in the top 3 for player of the year, while Jabari's numbers could look something like 15 points, 7 boards, 4 assists, a steal and a block and a whole lot of intangibles. Good enough for 1st team all ACC, but probably not player of the year.

[moonpie23]

sheed will shock....

[lotusland]

I hope Quinn is our best player next year. He's the player who can make everyone else better and he will also be an elder statesmen on this team. If a freshmen is our best player I doubt we are as good as this year's team.

[oldnavy]

sheed will shock....

Rasheed is my vote as well for best Duke player. He had a few games and several spurts this year where he was the best player on the court for us. I think he makes the sophmore leap and becomes a first team All ACC player in his second year. All he needs is a little confidence and watchout!

NPOY, who knows?? not I.

[JNort]

It's gotta be Sheed. He should be the focal part of the offense next year and with a year of improvement after being one of the top freshmen in the country he should be very very good. He can drive, shoot, pass and play defense now he just needs to work on his efficiency and %. Not to mention he has a quick trigger and does not mind shooting (slump or no slump). He had the coaches faith last season and should even more so this next.

[JNort]

sheed will shock....

Well I predict he is the best player on the team, first team All Acc, and in the running for all the major national awards. Doubt much more will shock me....

[Turtleboy]

We should put all these names from the Key & Peale sketch (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gODZzSOelss)into a thread and vote on the best. We've got 6.782 months to kill until Midnight Madness....They are all absolutely hysterical.

Key and Peele say that they were compelled to do this bit because this guy (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/9590/d%27brickashaw-ferguson) claimed his name was a family name. "Ferguson, maybe, but c'mon!"

[flyingdutchdevil]

Rasheed is my vote as well for best Duke player. He had a few games and several spurts this year where he was the best player on the court for us. I think he makes the sophmore leap and becomes a first team All ACC player in his second year. All he needs is a little confidence and watchout!

NPOY, who knows?? not I.

Count me in as well. Sully has all the tools: a good shooter, a good/great driver, great defender, good distributor, athletic, intelligent, and a great teammate. Like you said, all he needs is confidence, and while you can question a few of Coach K's on-the-court tactics from time to time, I don't think you can question Coach K's ability to mentally prepare players. It's what he does best time and time again.

SIDE NOTE: One of my favorite aspects about Sully that often goes unnoticed is how intelligent he is OFF the court. This is a student who probably could have gotten into Duke without the ability to play basketball. To me, that is more telling then his ability to ball.

[sagegrouse]

As I said on the Quinn Cook thread, I believe that Rasheed is the most dynamic Duke guard since Jason Williams, and that includes all-Americans like Nolan and Scheyer and Redick. He seems to move (bound!) at a different speed from the other players on the court. His shooting is good and, with consistency, has the potential to be outstanding. If Duke is in contention for a National Championship, then he will get the recognition to make him an A-A player and a candidate for national honors.

And BTW, if he is as good as I think he will be, then he will draw so much attention that Jabari and Quinn and the others will benefit.

sagegrouse

[jv001]

As I said on the Quinn Cook thread, I believe that Rasheed is the most dynamic Duke guard since Jason Williams, and that includes all-Americans like Nolan and Scheyer and Redick. He seems to move (bound!) at a different speed from the other players on the court. His shooting is good and, with consistency, has the potential to be outstanding. If Duke is in contention for a National Championship, then he will get the recognition to make him an A-A player and a candidate for national honors.

And BTW, if he is as good as I think he will be, then he will draw so much attention that Jabari and Quinn and the others will benefit.

sagegrouse

Rasheed is as talented defensively as he is offensively. If not for his slump at the end of the year, he's right there with Hanlan for Freshman of the year. I agree with sage that he will probably be our best player next year but he will have plenty of competition from Parker, Hood, Quinn and #34. GoDuke!

[jipops]

I'm going with Sheed. He's got all the skills of a combo guard, defensive tenacity, and a year of experience. Averaging double figures as a freshman on a senior-laden team is certainly nothing to sneeze at.

Naming the best player could be somewhat subjective for this team. Jabari will put up numbers and be vital for us in the frontcourt, but I see Sheed getting the most shots of anyone and being our main on-ball defender in the backcourt.

[Kedsy]

Can I vote for Andre now?:D

[Edouble]

sheed will shock....

Agree. I think he was among the 3 or 4 most talented players in the Sweet 16 this year. He just needs a summer and then watch out!

[theschwartz]

Can I vote for Andre now?:D

That would make a fantastic story. It's a longshot but not totally out of the realm of possibility. Look at Kelly Olynyk with Gonzaga this season. He was a project for a while, sat out last season to work on his game, and became an All-American this season. Why not Dre?

More realistically, I'm thinking the player that stands out the most on our roster will be Jabari, but I think we have to be cautious about hyping him up before he even arrives on campus and calling him an AA. There's just too much association with the last 2 guys who got that type of hype before they played a single game of college ball (Shabazz and Barnes). I want Jabari to carve out his own path at Duke without all those expectations, and I'll just kick back and enjoy watching him blossom into a great college player. I could see Rasheed putting up the best tempo stats for us, but I see him more as a quiet & efficient killer and fitting very well into the overall team structure, not necessarily producing eye-popping, gaudy stats.

As for whether any of our guys are AA-caliber, I'd say sure, any of the 4 (Sheed, Jabari, Quinn & Rodney) could finish anywhere from 1st-team to Honorable Mention AA, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if 3 or even all 4 of them achieve that distinction. But for NPOY, it's really hard to say - there's just too much balance on the team I think for any one of those guys to stand out dramatically. No one's going to say about us next year, "Without Player X, Duke would really be in trouble." I feel like the media uses that a lot as a litmus test for NPOY. It could turn into a situation kinda like this past year where any one or two of our starters could carry us on any given night.

And it's incredibly hard to predict next year's NPOY candidates at this point so early. Raise your hand if any of you were talking about Otto Porter, Victor Oladipo, Kelly Olynyk, MCW or Ben McLemore at this time last year. Zeller & McDermott & Burke to a lesser extent...ok, sure, they were getting talked up. But most of the time, it's the under-the-radar guys from previous seasons who come alive.

Just for fun, some of my early NON-FRESHMAN contenders for NPOY next season, provided they stick around (in no particular order):
Any one of our guys :cool:
Kyle Anderson
Mike Moser (now in Washington, where his game will be a better fit in Lorenzo Romar's system)
Kevin Pangos
CJ Fair
Chane Behanan or Russ Smith if he stays, but I doubt it
Vander Blue
Joe Harris
Sam Thompson or LaQuinton Ross (OSU)
Gary Harris or Adreian Payne if they stay
Glenn Robinson III
Tyler Haws
Shane Larkin
Kendall Williams
Myck Kabongo (he's supposed to announce his decision on Fri, I think - I'm hoping he stays even though he got screwed by the NCAA)
Like every other season, some benchwarmer from Kansas who finally gets to start and averages 18 & 8 (maybe Tharpe or Ellis?)

Alright, good talk. Back to the CFA studying.

[slower]

Sully has all the tools....One of my favorite aspects about Sully....

"Sully"? Really? I have NEVER heard ANYBODY refer to him this way. Have you? "Sully" is generally a nickname for somebody named Sullivan.

[MCFinARL]

As for whether any of our guys are AA-caliber, I'd say sure, any of the 4 (Sheed, Jabari, Quinn & Rodney) could finish anywhere from 1st-team to Honorable Mention AA, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if 3 or even all 4 of them achieve that distinction. But for NPOY, it's really hard to say - there's just too much balance on the team I think for any one of those guys to stand out dramatically. No one's going to say about us next year, "Without Player X, Duke would really be in trouble." I feel like the media uses that a lot as a litmus test for NPOY. It could turn into a situation kinda like this past year where any one or two of our starters could carry us on any given night.

.

I agree and disagree. Next year's team does look like one that will get where it does because of the contributions of a lot of complementary talents--balance, as you say. And from the perspective of choosing an NPOY, I agree that could take Duke's best players out of the running.

But for myself, I have no trouble projecting the person about whom I might say "Without Player X, Duke would really be in trouble."--that's Quinn Cook. Not because he is the best player, or the one who will score the most (if things work out for the best, he almost certainly will not be the highest scorer), but because he is the facilitator--if he is playing well, everyone else will get the opportunities they need to be effective; if he is struggling, other players will have to work too hard for those opportunities. I'm optimistic that Quinn will continue to develop and will handle that responsibility well.

[turnandburn55]

As I said on the Quinn Cook thread, I believe that Rasheed is the most dynamic Duke guard since Jason Williams, and that includes all-Americans like Nolan and Scheyer and Redick. He seems to move (bound!) at a different speed from the other players on the court. His shooting is good and, with consistency, has the potential to be outstanding. If Duke is in contention for a National Championship, then he will get the recognition to make him an A-A player and a candidate for national honors.

And BTW, if he is as good as I think he will be, then he will draw so much attention that Jabari and Quinn and the others will benefit.

sagegrouse

Other than Uncle Drew, of course ;)

But if Sheed is even on par with Nolan Smith his senior year, let alone better, we will be in very, very good shape.

[DukeAlumBS]

Thank you for that post on Andre. I feel the same way. I feel he will have a big impact, and maybe start above Rasheed. Dawkins has too many weapons under his belt. A title ring, thanks to his 3 point shooting, and many great games where he scored 25 points in them. He will make it very difficult for Rasheed.
I have faith in this man!
Nice day,
Jimmy

[Ichabod Drain]

Can I vote for Andre now?:D


3326

[jimsumner]

Thank you for that post on Andre. I feel the same way. I feel he will have a big impact, and maybe start above Rasheed. Dawkins has too many weapons under his belt. A title ring, thanks to his 3 point shooting, and many great games where he scored 25 points in them. He will make it very difficult for Rasheed.
I have faith in this man!
Nice day,
Jimmy

Dawkins starts ahead of Sulaimon if Dawkins has made significant improvements in ball-handling, passing, rebounding and defending.

Which is quite possible. And this would make Duke pretty darn tough.

But I think it might be prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Of course, Duke could start Sulaimon at the point and Dawkins at the 2.

Or Dawkins could start ahead of Hood at the 3.

Or Duke could start Cook, Sulaimon, Dawkins, Hood and Parker.

Lots of options. Options are good. Usually. Sometimes, certainty is nice.

Back to the main point, we have some predicting that Sulaimon will play at an All-America level, some that he'll be coming off the bench.

Like I said, lots of options. Lots of uncertainty. Lots of roles to be hammered out. Should be interesting.

[NSDukeFan]

Dawkins starts ahead of Sulaimon if Dawkins has made significant improvements in ball-handling, passing, rebounding and defending.

Which is quite possible. And this would make Duke pretty darn tough.

But I think it might be prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Of course, Duke could start Sulaimon at the point and Dawkins at the 2.

Or Dawkins could start ahead of Hood at the 3.

Or Duke could start Cook, Sulaimon, Dawkins, Hood and Parker.

Lots of options. Options are good. Usually. Sometimes, certainty is nice.

Back to the main point, we have some predicting that Sulaimon will play at an All-America level, some that he'll be coming off the bench.

Like I said, lots of options. Lots of uncertainty. Lots of roles to be hammered out. Should be interesting.

The developing of new teams of young student-athletes every year and watching them develop makes college basketball so much fun to watch.

[Edouble]

Dawkins starts ahead of Sulaimon if Dawkins has made significant improvements in ball-handling, passing, rebounding and defending.

Which is quite possible. And this would make Duke pretty darn tough.

There is no way in the world that Dawkins, a career role player, starts ahead of Sulaimon, one of the top 2-3 most talented players in the country. One of the craziest things I have heard from a poster of great repute on this board in 15 years.

[slower]

There is no way in the world that Dawkins, a career role player, starts ahead of Sulaimon, one of the top 2-3 most talented players in the country. One of the craziest things I have heard from a poster of great repute on this board in 15 years.

Jim didn't start the "Dawkins starts over Sulaimon" opinion, he was responding to another poster of less repute.

[NSDukeFan]

There is no way in the world that Dawkins, a career role player, starts ahead of Sulaimon, one of the top 2-3 most talented players in the country. One of the craziest things I have heard from a poster of great repute on this board in 15 years.

I doubt Dawkins starts over Sulaimon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Dawkins add to his 21 career starts. This "career role player" has more points entering his fourth season Than Ryan Kelly did and about the same as Mason had. Let's not discredit what a very good player Dawkins has been at Duke because of the last six games of his Junior year.

[roywhite]

I could see Andre with a role similar to what Luke Hancock did for Louisville.

Hancock started a few games, but mostly came off the bench, was their best 3-point shooter, and was absolutely key in some of the Cards' best wins.

[oldnavy]

If Andre can develop a game off the dribble and get into the lane and finish, he could be extremely "explosive". Everyone knows what a tremendous shooter he is, so if he can add that to his arsenal.... watch out! That is a big IF, but maybe this is what he means when he says he is going to be a different player.....

[BD80]

... Or Duke could start Cook, Sulaimon, Dawkins, Hood and Parker. ...

Like I said, lots of options. Lots of uncertainty. Lots of roles to be hammered out. Should be interesting.

Given Coach K's penchant for 3 guard line-ups and his emphasis on weak side rotation on defense, this is not a far-fetched idea. I believe it is a line-up we will see with some frequency. Variations with Thornton and Jefferson as well.

The key will be Dre's commitment to defense. It must be frustrating for the coaches to have a guy like Tyler at one end of the spectrum of defensive intensity and understanding and then have Curry (now Dawkins) at the other end of the spectrum in the same practices.

I hope it will be interesting watching the roles get hammered out. This past year I had hoped for the same, but the only real hammering was Alex and Marshall being nailed to the bench.

[jimsumner]

There is no way in the world that Dawkins, a career role player, starts ahead of Sulaimon, one of the top 2-3 most talented players in the country. One of the craziest things I have heard from a poster of great repute on this board in 15 years.

I'm not sure how you read my response as a prediction that Dawkins is likely to start ahead of Sulaimon. I thought my qualifiers were pretty evident and pretty strong.

[Kedsy]

...Sulaimon, one of the top 2-3 most talented players in the country.

I think Rasheed is going to be a great player at Duke, but don't you think if he was really one of the top 2 or 3 most talented players in the country he'd have declared for the draft by now? Frankly, and this is not a dig at Rasheed, he might not even be one of the top 2 most talented players at Duke next season.

[Wander]

I could see Andre with a role similar to what Luke Hancock did for Louisville.

Hancock started a few games, but mostly came off the bench, was their best 3-point shooter, and was absolutely key in some of the Cards' best wins.

Nice comparison. I could definitely see that.

That said, with Dawkins back, I think you all are crazy if you honestly believe that Hood, Parker, and a big are going to all be part of the primary lineup at the same time. The only time Coach K is going to only play two true college guards as part of the main lineup is in an emergency situation like 2010 when we only have three scholarship guards on the entire roster. Any other example happened over a decade ago. There's a 0.0000001% it'll happen with Cook, Dawkins, Thornton, Sulaimon, and Jones all healthy on the same team. I'll believe otherwise when I see it.

[Kedsy]

Nice comparison. I could definitely see that.

That said, with Dawkins back, I think you all are crazy if you honestly believe that Hood, Parker, and a big are going to all be part of the primary lineup at the same time. The only time Coach K is going to only play two true college guards as part of the main lineup is in an emergency situation like 2010 when we only have three scholarship guards on the entire roster. Any other example happened over a decade ago. There's a 0.0000001% it'll happen with Cook, Dawkins, Thornton, Sulaimon, and Jones all healthy on the same team. I'll believe otherwise when I see it.

Well, from what we've heard, it seems Rodney Hood is really a tall guard, so it wouldn't really be inconsistent. In my opinion, the only way you're right is if we don't play any bigs (e.g., Quinn, Rasheed, Andre, Rodney, Jabari is our main lineup). And while I think we'll see that sort of lineup at least for a little while every game, I don't think it will be our starting or predominant lineup. Obviously, we'll see when we see.

[Duvall]

Nice comparison. I could definitely see that.

That said, with Dawkins back, I think you all are crazy if you honestly believe that Hood, Parker, and a big are going to all be part of the primary lineup at the same time. The only time Coach K is going to only play two true college guards as part of the main lineup is in an emergency situation like 2010 when we only have three scholarship guards on the entire roster. Any other example happened over a decade ago. There's a 0.0000001% it'll happen with Cook, Dawkins, Thornton, Sulaimon, and Jones all healthy on the same team. I'll believe otherwise when I see it.

...or 2011, when Duke started two guards, two bigs and Singler.

[Mcluhan]

It's always hard to predict off-season improvement and freshman performance against much better competition.

If I had to put money on it, though, I'd wager that Rodney Hood is our best player next year.

Highlight videos never tell you the whole story, but what you can deduce from this freshman year reel is that he has a variety moves-- mid-range jumper, mid-range turnaround, a nice 3pt stroke, and an excellent first step.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JH2RJt3ZqOs

Two years later, he's much stronger. He was rumored to be one of the top players on the team this year.

Oh yeah, he's 6'8".

I have a feeling we're going to want to see the ball in his hands often.

[Scorp4me]

I think as most on this board do that we'll start Cook, Sulaimon, Hook and Parker along with someone else. Maybe it's Marshall or a grad transfer down low. Maybe it's Dawkins or Jones at guard. Maybe it's somebody in the forward spot, I don't know.

But, that lineup jim mentioned with Sulaimon at point and Dawkins at the 2...dang!!! Talk about explosive!

[Wander]

...or 2011, when Duke started two guards, two bigs and Singler.

I was careful not to use the word "starting," as I think that can be a little bit of a distraction. Three of the top five minutes guys were Irving, Curry, and Smith that year. If you don't want to count Irving, then Dawkins was in sixth.



Well, from what we've heard, it seems Rodney Hood is really a tall guard, so it wouldn't really be inconsistent. In my opinion, the only way you're right is if we don't play any bigs (e.g., Quinn, Rasheed, Andre, Rodney, Jabari is our main lineup). And while I think we'll see that sort of lineup at least for a little while every game, I don't think it will be our starting or predominant lineup. Obviously, we'll see when we see.


The lineup you suggest is exactly what I have in mind. Maybe Thornton instead of Dawkins. Similar to.... 2009 I think it was, when we didn't start 4 guards, but often ended with 4 guards (if we count Hood as a guard).

[NashvilleDevil]

There is no way in the world that Dawkins, a career role player, starts ahead of Sulaimon, one of the top 2-3 most talented players in the country. One of the craziest things I have heard from a poster of great repute on this board in 15 years.

Did you read his entire post about the options Duke has next year?

[Duvall]

I was careful not to use the word "starting," as I think that can be a little bit of a distraction. Three of the top five minutes guys were Irving, Curry, and Smith that year. If you don't want to count Irving, then Dawkins was in sixth.

Are you going by minutes per game? Because those are obviously massively skewed by the time Curry and the other guards spent *replacing* Irving's 28 minutes per game.

Look, just go back to the 2010-2011 boxscores and tally the minutes played by Mason, Miles, Kelly and Hairston. Every minute over 40 is a minute Duke was playing two bigs at once, in contravention of your argument.

[Wander]

Are you going by minutes per game? Because those are obviously massively skewed by the time Curry and the other guards spent *replacing* Irving's 28 minutes per game.

Look, just go back to the 2010-2011 boxscores and tally the minutes played by Mason, Miles, Kelly and Hairston. Every minute over 40 is a minute Duke was playing two bigs at once, in contravention of your argument.

Yeah, I think minutes is the right metric to use here. I did just look at the box scores, and in every single game that the 2011 team was healthy for (ie, Kyrie) other than the blowout of Hampton in the first round, three guards were in the top five minutes guys. And very often the guy in 6th place was also a guard.

I'm not saying we'll never ever play two bigs at once, or three forwards - we may even start with that - but I feel reasonably confident based on Coach K's history that our primary healthy lineup is not going to include all of Hood, Parker, and Jefferson/Marshall/Hairston. Unless, as Kedsy suggests, I'm completely underestimating how guard-like Hood is even at his height. But I'd still be surprised.

[sagegrouse]

Are you going by minutes per game? Because those are obviously massively skewed by the time Curry and the other guards spent *replacing* Irving's 28 minutes per game.

Look, just go back to the 2010-2011 boxscores and tally the minutes played by Mason, Miles, Kelly and Hairston. Every minute over 40 is a minute Duke was playing two bigs at once, in contravention of your argument.

Did you mean 80? Or 40?

sage

[Newton_14]

Yeah, I think minutes is the right metric to use here. I did just look at the box scores, and in every single game that the 2011 team was healthy for (ie, Kyrie) other than the blowout of Hampton in the first round, three guards were in the top five minutes guys. And very often the guy in 6th place was also a guard.

I'm not saying we'll never ever play two bigs at once, or three forwards - we may even start with that - but I feel reasonably confident based on Coach K's history that our primary healthy lineup is not going to include all of Hood, Parker, and Jefferson/Marshall/Hairston. Unless, as Kedsy suggests, I'm completely underestimating how guard-like Hood is even at his height. But I'd still be surprised.

Hood is very much like a guard. Good handle, great 3 point shooter, great mid-range shooter, great slasher. I have zero doubt he will play the 3 all season long, and only slide to the 4 when we go small, with Jabari at the 5, or when Jabari is taking a breather. People who have not seen Hood play are going to be very pleasantly surprised at how good this kid is. He and Jabari on the floor together is going to punish teams and leave opposing coaches scratching their heads on how to defend Duke. Add in Rasheed, Quinn, Andre, and Amile, and lots of coaches will be having nightmares on how to defend Duke and not give up 80+ points.

Still believe too that K will greatly turn up the heat on defense next year using the incredible mix of athlete's with great size and length. I am going to be shocked if we don't see lots of full court pressure defense using a mix of zone press and man to man pressure for 90 feet. The halfcourt defensive pressure will also be turned up greatly using pressure man to man with a mix of trapping. With the smaller lineup especially, we should see switching on all screens, with less hedging on the high ball screens, which should help greatly improve our ability to defend that play over this year.

[roywhite]

Still believe too that K will greatly turn up the heat on defense next year using the incredible mix of athlete's with great size and length. I am going to be shocked if we don't see lots of full court pressure defense using a mix of zone press and man to man pressure for 90 feet. The halfcourt defensive pressure will also be turned up greatly using pressure man to man with a mix of trapping. With the smaller lineup especially, we should see switching on all screens, with less hedging on the high ball screens, which should help greatly improve our ability to defend that play over this year.

Love your points concerning defense next season. The traps could definitely lead to transition buckets; I can just picture Quinn and Rasheed springing a trap, and Jabari coming in to deflect or intercept a pass. And I'm all for a defense that relies less on switching against ball screens; the 2012-13 team saw plenty of ball screens and dribble penetration; they dealt well with it at times, but had trouble against good teams like Miami and Louisville. I also see Jabari getting a good number of blocked shots as he comes in from the weak side. Again, blocked shots can be transition opportunities, and this team will be good at pushing and finishing fast breaks.

[Billy Dat]

Nice to see Jabari (2nd), Rodney (3rd) and Rasheed (Hon Men) on CBS Sports.com potential preseason AA list
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22172296/all-americans-watch-list-bank-on-smart-mcdermott-and-smith

I love how the constant need for fresh internet content has sites developing roughly 1,000 iterations of these lists from the day the season ends through the start of the NCAA tournament.