2013 Early Entry Thread

[tommy]

Mods, feel free to move, but I didn't see a thread that discussed early entries nationwide. I know we have one touching on it vis-a-vis NC State and also Kentucky, but thought one would be good for tracking the early entries and general discussion of it on a more national basis.

In any event, Deshaun Thomas of Ohio State is declaring (http://www.i4u.com/2013/04/greg-jennings/nba-ohio-deshaun-state-declare-junior-2013-thomas-will-draft). No surprise there. Kid can score, but not particularly athletic and hasn't put his nose to the grindstone yet defensively. Neverthless, I see him as a solid rotation guy in the league.

[Olympic Fan]

okay, good idea to consolidate the list. These are the top guys who have already declared for the draft:

Steve Adams, Pitt
Anthony Bennett, UNLV
Lorenzo Brown, NC State
Allen Crabbe, Cal
Archie Goodwin, Kentucky
CJ Leslie, NC State
Tony Snell, New Mexico
Adonis Thomas, Michigan

now Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State

plus a few other lesser players


EXPECTED TO DECLARE FOR THE DRAFT:
Trey Burke, Michigan
Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
Dieng, Louisville
Hardaway Jr. Michigan
Alex Len, Maryland
Muhammad, UCLA
Noel, Kentucky
Oladipo, Indiana
Olynyk, Gonzaga
Payne, Michigan State
Young, Florida

A bunch more on the fence, including (but not restricted to)

James Michael McAdoo, UNC
Reggie Bullock, UNC
PJ Hairston, UNC
Cody Zeller, Indiana
Shane Larkin, Miami (I know he said he was returning ... but he's still looking)
Russ Smith, Louisville
CJ Fair, Syracuse

[tommy]

okay, good idea to consolidate the list. These are the top guys who have already declared for the draft:

Steve Adams, Pitt
Anthony Bennett, UNLV
Lorenzo Brown, NC State
Allen Crabbe, Cal
Archie Goodwin, Kentucky
CJ Leslie, NC State
Tony Snell, New Mexico
Adonis Thomas, Michigan

now Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State

plus a few other lesser players


EXPECTED TO DECLARE FOR THE DRAFT:
Trey Burke, Michigan
Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
Dieng, Louisville
Hardaway Jr. Michigan
Alex Len, Maryland
Muhammad, UCLA
Noel, Kentucky
Oladipo, Indiana
Olynyk, Gonzaga
Payne, Michigan State
Young, Florida

A bunch more on the fence, including (but not restricted to)

James Michael McAdoo, UNC
Reggie Bullock, UNC
PJ Hairston, UNC
Cody Zeller, Indiana
Shane Larkin, Miami (I know he said he was returning ... but he's still looking)
Russ Smith, Louisville
CJ Fair, Syracuse

I'm sure it was just a typo, but Adonis Thomas played at Memphis, not Michigan.

And can we put Shabazz Muhammad on the "gone" list yet? I mean, his coach did tell the world several weeks ago that he was declaring, right? :D

Will be interesting to see what both Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary do. Both benefitted greatly from having Burke and Hardaway on the team absorbing most of the focus of the opponent's defense. How would either do as The Man without a great point both feeding him the ball and absorbing that focus? Will McGary's stock ever be higher than it is right now? Michigan is not used to dealing with the anxiety that comes with having underclassmen of this caliber, but deal with it they will.

[scottdude8]

I'm sure it was just a typo, but Adonis Thomas played at Memphis, not Michigan.

And can we put Shabazz Muhammad on the "gone" list yet? I mean, his coach did tell the world several weeks ago that he was declaring, right? :D

Will be interesting to see what both Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary do. Both benefitted greatly from having Burke and Hardaway on the team absorbing most of the focus of the opponent's defense. How would either do as The Man without a great point both feeding him the ball and absorbing that focus? Will McGary's stock ever be higher than it is right now? Michigan is not used to dealing with the anxiety that comes with having underclassmen of this caliber, but deal with it they will.

McGary has said definitively he's not going to the draft... when asked it a couple days ago he actually laughed at the question. Trey is gone. Despite the recent media reports (which were all based on a lone tweet from a complete nobody, so they're worthless) I think Tim is still a 50/50 proposition. I haven't seen anyone who views him as a solid 1st round pick (most things I've read have him as a mid-2nd rounder), so I think his dad may try and convince him to get another year of seasoning. He's still way too streaky, disappears in big games, is inconsistent defensively, and can't attack the basket as well as he should be able to. GRIII is also 50/50 in my book. He's got the talent to go, and its a very weak draft. But he too is not NEARLY polished enough at this point. He's playing well now but people forget that he absolutely disappeared for about a month during big 10 play. He needs a year under his belt as a primary scoring option, which is what he'd get next year at Michigan assuming he stays at Trey goes.

Just 2 cents from a Michigan fan. Go blue this weekend!

[FerryFor50]

McGary has said definitively he's not going to the draft... when asked it a couple days ago he actually laughed at the question. Trey is gone. Despite the recent media reports (which were all based on a lone tweet from a complete nobody, so they're worthless) I think Tim is still a 50/50 proposition. I haven't seen anyone who views him as a solid 1st round pick (most things I've read have him as a mid-2nd rounder), so I think his dad may try and convince him to get another year of seasoning. He's still way too streaky, disappears in big games, is inconsistent defensively, and can't attack the basket as well as he should be able to. GRIII is also 50/50 in my book. He's got the talent to go, and its a very weak draft. But he too is not NEARLY polished enough at this point. He's playing well now but people forget that he absolutely disappeared for about a month during big 10 play. He needs a year under his belt as a primary scoring option, which is what he'd get next year at Michigan assuming he stays at Trey goes.

Just 2 cents from a Michigan fan. Go blue this weekend!

Mitch rides a mean unicycle, too, apparently....

http://m.yahoo.com/w/sports/home/news/article?urn=6266aad6-b484-3e20-991b-a4098f26b183&.ts=1365211394&.tsrc=pcsports&.intl=US&.lang=en

[JasonEvans]

The Michigan guys have shot up the mock drafts lately, as players often do when their team wins in the NCAA tourney. I think the temptation to go will be quite strong as their draft stock may never be higher.

NBADraft.net has Burke at #7, Robinson III at #13, McGary at #22, and Timmy Jr at #25.

-Jason "we'll get a real sense a week or so after the championship game" Evans

[BlueDevilBrowns]

According to CBSSports' Jeff Goodman, PJ Hairston will return to UNC next season and not enter the NBA draft.

[sagegrouse]

According to CBSSports' Jeff Goodman, PJ Hairston will return to UNC next season and not enter the NBA draft.

That's good for PJ, good for UNC, and bad for Sage Grouse. -- sage

[BD80]

According to CBSSports' Jeff Goodman, PJ Hairston will return to UNC next season and not enter the NBA draft.

The good part: "Still not sure about McAdoo and Bullock yet"

[mo.st.dukie]

According to CBSSports' Jeff Goodman, PJ Hairston will return to UNC next season and not enter the NBA draft.

Not too surprising, the more likely ones to leave were Bullock and McAdoo but even they might stay. UNC will be a challenger to Syracuse for 2nd in the ACC.

[luburch]

Oladipo and Zeller are supposed to announce tomorrow

[Duke79UNLV77]

According to CBSSports' Jeff Goodman, PJ Hairston will return to UNC next season and not enter the NBA draft.

Ole Roy said recently that P.J., McAdoo, and Bullock would announce together, and he sounded fairly optimistic about all 3 staying.

It's amazing how much worse UNC's team got in Ole Roy's eyes from when he complained that they were seeded well below their RPI rank going into the tournament to when he had 3 players considering the NBA one week later. His quotes in his 2 public comments make it sound like the NBA would have no interest and they'd be foolish to leave. What was the draft range he told Barnes after his freshman year?

[beach rev]

http://acc.blogs.starnewsonline.com/36235/report-on-hairstons-return-to-unc-may-be-premature/

We can only hope...

[Here is a Turtle]

http://acc.blogs.starnewsonline.com/36235/report-on-hairstons-return-to-unc-may-be-premature/

We can only hope...

Nothing would make me happier than Hairston leaving.

[tommy]

As a Duke fan, how great is it to not have to be concerned with whether any Duke players will be leaving early? To not have to deal with the anxiety and sweating out those decisions, knowing what our roster is going to look like for next year already?

The last three years Mason was tempted, especially after his freshman and junior years.
Last year we also had Austin, although he was always assumed to be gone. But still, we had to wait it out and ultimately deal with the letdown of when he actually declared.
2011, in addition to Mason, we had Kyrie.
2010, after the championship, Nolan and Kyle, in particular Kyle, thought long and hard about it.
2009 it was Henderson who ultimately decided to go.
2008 there was nobody, which was nice.
2007 it was McRoberts who went.
2006 it was McRoberts who thought about it.
2005 Shav left unexpectedly, and JJ and Shelden thought about it but returned
2004 Luol shocked a lot of folks by departing after one year.
2003 there was nobody
2002 Boozer and J-Will were going, but the shock was Dunleavy

So only twice in the previous 11 years did we not have anything to worry about. Nice to not have it weighing, and letting other programs and their fans, like Michigan and Louisville for example, and UNC of course, enjoy the anxiety.

[gofurman]

okay, good idea to consolidate the list. These are the top guys who have already declared for the draft:

Steve Adams, Pitt
Anthony Bennett, UNLV
Lorenzo Brown, NC State
Allen Crabbe, Cal
Archie Goodwin, Kentucky
CJ Leslie, NC State
Tony Snell, New Mexico
Adonis Thomas, Memphis *
Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State

plus a few other lesser players


EXPECTED TO DECLARE FOR THE DRAFT:
Trey Burke, Michigan
Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
Dieng, Louisville
Hardaway Jr. Michigan
Alex Len, Maryland
Muhammad, UCLA
Noel, Kentucky
Oladipo, Indiana
Olynyk, Gonzaga
Payne, Michigan State
Young, Florida

A bunch more on the fence, including (but not restricted to)

James Michael McAdoo, UNC
Reggie Bullock, UNC
PJ Hairston, UNC
Cody Zeller, Indiana
Shane Larkin, Miami (I know he said he was returning ... but he's still looking)
Russ Smith, Louisville
CJ Fair, Syracuse


- Russ Smith dad said the Title indicates Smith will be leaving Louisville

[luburch]

Per IU reporters, Zeller and Oladipo are expected to announce for the NBA draft in the next 48 hours.

[FerryFor50]

Just so you all know, I have announced my entry into the NBA draft.

[CDu]

No surprise here: http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/09/report-russ-smith-to-turn-pro/#

[ynotme32]

Oladipo gone.....

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9152121/indiana-hoosiers-victor-oladipo-leaving-nba-draft

McLemore gone....

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9152600/ben-mclemore-kansas-jayhawks-declares-nba-draft

[Saratoga2]

ESPN indicates both Oladipo and McLemore will declare for the draft.

[tommy]

Kid was a big time recruit after having gone to 4 high schools in 5 years. The 6'6" wing committed to Providence, de-committed, then re-committed there. Except he never qualified academically so never put on a Friars uniform. Just practiced with them this year and now he's declaring (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/4/9/4205848/ricardo-ledo-nba-draft-status-2013).

[licc85]

Kid was a big time recruit after having gone to 4 high schools in 5 years. The 6'6" wing committed to Providence, de-committed, then re-committed there. Except he never qualified academically so never put on a Friars uniform. Just practiced with them this year and now he's declaring (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/4/9/4205848/ricardo-ledo-nba-draft-status-2013).

That sure was a well-used scholarship . . .

[gls6]

Goodman has Sulaimon going in the first round. http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Goodman has Sulaimon going in the first round. http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft

Wow, thanks alot Mr. Goodman. Now I guess we'll have to sweat out "Rasheed Watch" a year earlier than I thought.

[dchen09]

Well for comparison's sake, DraftExpress has Sulaimon going in the first round of next year's draft, also around early 20s. I know next year is suppose to be a better year but you'd think with an extra year of development he would go higher if he was really first round material this year. He's not even listed as a top 100 prospect this year, though that may be because he thinks he has no chance of coming out this year.

Also, interestingly enough, he has Rodney Hood as a 2nd round pick next year.

[JasonEvans]

Wow, thanks alot Mr. Goodman. Now I guess we'll have to sweat out "Rasheed Watch" a year earlier than I thought.

I would not sweat it too much. Goodman is not a draft guru by any stretch of the imagination. He has Patrick Young of Florida in his draft even though Young has stated he plans to come back to school (and would be a late 2nd rounder, so going pro probably makes less sense). He's got TJ Warren going in the 2nd round even though Warren has said he plans to come back to school. He's got Will Cauley-Stein and Alex Poythress going in the mid-first round even though both of them have stated they are coming back to Kentucky.

This is just his list of pro prospect rankings, I think, and bears no resemblance to kids who are or are not coming out this year. There has been no hint that Rasheed would even dream of turning pro after this season nor have I seen anything to indicate that his stock might be as high as Goodman indicates. DraftExpress has Suliamon listed as the #22 pick in the 2014 draft. NBADraft.net does not list him among likely draftees in either 2013 or 2014. ESPN does not have him in their 2013 mock and list him as the 44th best prospect in college right now, hardly the stuff of a 2013 first round pick.

I don't think we have anything to worry about here. Goodman does not know what he is talking about and the folks who do know NBA draft stuff do not feel Rasheed is coming out right now nor do they think his stock would be very high if he did.

-Jason "I doubt we even get an announcement from Rasheed about his plans, that is how far off the radar the NBA is for him right now" Evans

[luburch]

Cody Zeller declaring for the NBA per SportsCenter.

[CDu]

All in all, no surprises yet. I'm hopeful that we'll soon find out that Burke, maybe McGary, and a couple of UNC guys decide to go as well.

[Dev11]

Cody Zeller declaring for the NBA per SportsCenter.

So IU loses Zeller, Oladipo, Watford, and Hulls. That's a huge chunk of their minutes, points, and rebounds. Granted, Duke losing Ryan, Mason, and Seth could be almost as big.

[CDu]

So IU loses Zeller, Oladipo, Watford, and Hulls. That's a huge chunk of their minutes, points, and rebounds. Granted, Duke losing Ryan, Mason, and Seth could be almost as big.

Yes, but at least we are adding one of the best players in the country, a terrific SF, and at least one if not two terrific perimeter shooters. Indiana's recruiting class is not nearly as strong. And on top of that, we have more returning talent than Indiana.

[Olympic Fan]

Add Missouri guard Phil Pressey to the early entry list:

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9156208/missouri-tigers-point-guard-phil-pressey-enters-nba-draft

And, if I may refer to another thread on this board, that moves Quinn Cook up one more place on the list of the nation's best 2013-14 point guards.

[Duvall]

Michael Carter-Williams declaring for the draft. (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22045404/michael-carter-williams-leaving-syracuse-for-nba)

Adjust your 2013-2014 point guard and ACC standings projections accordingly.

[CDu]

Add Missouri guard Phil Pressey to the early entry list:

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9156208/missouri-tigers-point-guard-phil-pressey-enters-nba-draft

And, if I may refer to another thread on this board, that moves Quinn Cook up one more place on the list of the nation's best 2013-14 point guards.


Michael Carter-Williams declaring for the draft. (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22045404/michael-carter-williams-leaving-syracuse-for-nba)

Adjust your 2013-2014 point guard and ACC standings projections accordingly.

Excellent. Things are coming together nicely. Now let's hope for Burke and Larkin to commit and Wiggins to go to FSU.

[Bluedog]

Yes, but at least we are adding one of the best players in the country, a terrific SF, and at least one if not two terrific perimeter shooters. Indiana's recruiting class is not nearly as strong. And on top of that, we have more returning talent than Indiana.

Well, they're adding six guys including #7 overall Vonleh (a PF) on top of three 4-star recruits, so it's a solid class. But I'd agree it's not as strong as Duke's (especially if you count Hood). Crean said he purposefully extended more scholarships than he had available as he thought there may be some departures...I wonder what would happen if that didn't materialize though. Perhaps one of the 3-star guys would have been okay paying his way for a year.

[Olympic Fan]

Not sure, but I think this went up today -- ESPN's Mock Draft.

It's interesting because of the guys Chad Ford has projected -- all the Michigan guys (McGary, Hardaway, Robinson and Burke), Dieng from Louisville and Gary Harris of Michigan State. It has McAdoo and Hairston of UNC going late in the first round.

There seems to be some confusion about Russ Smith ... Ford has him in the draft, but projects him as a second rounder. But ESPN also has a story up quoting Pitino as saying that Smith still hasn't made up his mind.

Two other interesting ones are Adrian Payne and Reggie Bullock ... either Ford is projecting them to stay or doesn't have them in the first round.

FWIW -- Mason is listed at No. 14 at the moment.

[azzefkram]

Excellent. Things are coming together nicely. Now let's hope for Burke and Larkin to commit and Wiggins to go to FSU.

Did I hear a muuhahahahaha in there?

[MCFinARL]

Not sure, but I think this went up today -- ESPN's Mock Draft.

It's interesting because of the guys Chad Ford has projected -- all the Michigan guys (McGary, Hardaway, Robinson and Burke), Dieng from Louisville and Gary Harris of Michigan State. It has McAdoo and Hairston of UNC going late in the first round.

There seems to be some confusion about Russ Smith ... Ford has him in the draft, but projects him as a second rounder. But ESPN also has a story up quoting Pitino as saying that Smith still hasn't made up his mind.

Two other interesting ones are Adrian Payne and Reggie Bullock ... either Ford is projecting them to stay or doesn't have them in the first round.

FWIW -- Mason is listed at No. 14 at the moment.

I feel like Russ Smith's dad has been the source of the reports that he is entering the draft. Without knowing anything about the family, it seems at least possible that a) he is not in the loop and Pitino has better information on what Russ is thinking right now; b) he wants Russ to enter the draft and so is either assuming he will or trying to make that happen by saying it; c) Russ and his dad are on the same page, but Pitino wants Russ to consider additional information before making a final decision.

[CDu]

Did I hear a muuhahahahaha in there?

If only I had a fluffy white cat...

[MCFinARL]

Texas has just announced Myck Kabongo will enter the draft, according to Andy Katz.

[tommy]

Texas has just announced Myck Kabongo will enter the draft, according to Andy Katz.

Man, it is starting to seem like Quin Cook is going to be one of the best returning point guards in the nation! Fine by me!

[CDu]

Man, it is starting to seem like Quin Cook is going to be one of the best returning point guards in the nation! Fine by me!

Yeah, I wasn't kidding when I posted that thread. Several members of Cook's competition at PG can be expected to enter the draft. There is definitely opportunity for Cook if he goes and gets it.

[bbosbbos]

A player becomes a good player because he learns and develops, not because his competitors leave.

Cook, please learn from your buddy Nolan Smith in this summer.

[CDu]

A player becomes a good player because he learns and develops, not because his competitors leave.

Cook, please learn from your buddy Nolan Smith in this summer.

That may be true. But if the competitors leave, then the competition tends to get worse. In saying that Cook could be the best PG in college basketball next year, you have to consider the level of play of both that player as well as his competition. If the competition drops of sufficiently, then a player could become the best without getting any better.

Obviously it will be important for Cook to improve, and I think he will. But it certainly helps that several of the other top-tier PG are leaving.

[MCFinARL]

That may be true. But if the competitors leave, then the competition tends to get worse. In saying that Cook could be the best PG in college basketball next year, you have to consider the level of play of both that player as well as his competition. If the competition drops of sufficiently, then a player could become the best without getting any better.

Obviously it will be important for Cook to improve, and I think he will. But it certainly helps that several of the other top-tier PG are leaving.

Yup. And if Cook is saying to himself, I see a real opportunity to be one of the very best PGs in the nation next year, that might be a good incentive to work that much harder to make it happen. Go, Quinn!

[gofurman]

That may be true. But if the competitors leave, then the competition tends to get worse. In saying that Cook could be the best PG in college basketball next year, you have to consider the level of play of both that player as well as his competition. If the competition drops of sufficiently, then a player could become the best without getting any better.

Obviously it will be important for Cook to improve, and I think he will. But it certainly helps that several of the other top-tier PG are leaving.

In a literal sense Cook can be the best PG without improving if everyone else leaves. Sort of a parallele to college bball in general - Would Louisville 2013 hav beaten Hurley, Hill and Laettner? doubtful - but they didnt have to and so it doesnt matter. Now, as stated - Cook could really separate himself by others leaving AND improving his game... which I am sure he will work on this summer.

[Duvall]

Would Louisville 2013 hav beaten Hurley, Hill and Laettner? doubtful - but they didnt have to and so it doesnt matter. .

To be fair, Pitino almost beat them with a much less talented team.

Almost.

[BD80]

Pitino says Dieng and Smith gone:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22050536/rick-pitino-says-russ-smith-and-dieng-are-gone-behanan-will-return

Behanan back - wonder if he'll be playing center?

[CDu]

Pitino says Dieng and Smith gone:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22050536/rick-pitino-says-russ-smith-and-dieng-are-gone-behanan-will-return

Behanan back - wonder if he'll be playing center?

Nah, Montrezl Harrell will take over at C.

[mph]

No surprise but it looks like Burke is gone. Link (http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9167744/trey-burke-michigan-wolverines-enter-nba-draft-according-reports)

[gofurman]

Pitino says Dieng and Smith gone:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22050536/rick-pitino-says-russ-smith-and-dieng-are-gone-behanan-will-return

Behanan back - wonder if he'll be playing center?

So thats Siva (Senior), Russ Smith and Dieng early as juniors. Thats a chunk. if Smith had returned they would have been a contender I think but with both stud guards gone I dont think so

[luburch]

Alex Len has declared according to SportsCenter.

[Here is a Turtle]

Alex Len has declared according to SportsCenter.

Yep. Scheduled for an announcement this week. Hopefully he does well in the NBA. Maryland definitely lost quite a player. Next play I guess. We'll still be big. This is a sad turtle right now.

[luburch]

In a move set to shock the world(not really) Nerlens Noel has declared for the NBA draft.

[JasonEvans]

Adrian Wojarnijojaskijonari says (https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/323799373681143809) UNC's Reggie Bullock is strongly leaning toward the NBA and will have a final decision today.

Considering this is a weak draft and next year is expected to be LOADED with wings/forwards, I can't imagine why Bullock would come back. I think Hairston made a mistake too. Heck, it could perhaps even be argued that Rasheed Suliamon should have come out, though his draft stock is less certain and he needs more consistency to ensure he is a first rounder in the future. I just question how much Hairston and Bullock can improve their draft stock given that next year is going to be a much, much stronger draft class.

-Jason "similarly, Doug McDermott would be a fool to come back, I think" Evans

[MChambers]

Adrian Wojarnijojaskijonari says (https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/323799373681143809) UNC's Reggie Bullock is strongly leaning toward the NBA and will have a final decision today.

Considering this is a weak draft and next year is expected to be LOADED with wings/forwards, I can't imagine why Bullock would come back. I think Hairston made a mistake too. Heck, it could perhaps even be argued that Rasheed Suliamon should have come out, though his draft stock is less certain and he needs more consistency to ensure he is a first rounder in the future. I just question how much Hairston and Bullock can improve their draft stock given that next year is going to be a much, much stronger draft class.

-Jason "similarly, Doug McDermott would be a fool to come back, I think" Evans
Maximizing one's position in the draft isn't the only consideration. So he gets drafted 20 rather than 30, or something like that. Yes, he'll get a better contract, but not a huge contract.

The real money is in the second contract. Maybe another year at UNC will prepare him better for the NBA. Maybe he just enjoys college [academic jokes omitted].

[ikiru36]

Maximizing one's position in the draft isn't the only consideration. So he gets drafted 20 rather than 30, or something like that. Yes, he'll get a better contract, but not a huge contract.

The real money is in the second contract. Maybe another year at UNC will prepare him better for the NBA. Maybe he just enjoys college [academic jokes omitted].

Perhaps I'm looking at it wrong (and I get the aspect of your point that he might improve more getting significant minutes in college than riding the pine in the NBA, though this seems highly debatable and circumstance specific) but doesn't the 2nd contract argument otherwise tend to favor leaving eariler as well? Waiting one more year to arrive in the NBA pushes back a year the time until one receives the 2nd contract AND evermore reduces any benefits that one accrues incrementally through various seniority minimum salary and other benefits/protections.
I think there are more arguments that it's better to be in the 2nd round than the bottom of the first round (as one could become a free agent sooner) in a given year than the argument that it's ever likely to be smarter to chose to be the 30th pick next year instead of the 20th pick this year. But more than willing to be schooled if I am thinking about this incorrectly.

Go Duke!!!!!! Go Blue Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gofurman]

Maximizing one's position in the draft isn't the only consideration. So he gets drafted 20 rather than 30, or something like that. Yes, he'll get a better contract, but not a huge contract.

The real money is in the second contract. Maybe another year at UNC will prepare him better for the NBA. Maybe he just enjoys college [academic jokes omitted].

Go reggie go

[BD80]

... -Jason "similarly, Doug McDermott would be a fool to come back, I think" Evans

Why? I hear he has a pretty good relationship with his coach :D

McDermott might make some extra $ leaving now, but another year with his dad would ensure a successful year for them both, and improve his father's financial security. I'd want the extra year with my dad.

While he might lose a few spots in the draft, he is not going to be a superstar at the next level. The heightened athleticism in the NBA will greatly reduce his effectiveness. An extra year in college will help him physically.

[MChambers]

Perhaps I'm looking at it wrong (and I get the aspect of your point that he might improve more getting significant minutes in college than riding the pine in the NBA, though this seems highly debatable and circumstance specific) but doesn't the 2nd contract argument otherwise tend to favor leaving eariler as well? Waiting one more year to arrive in the NBA pushes back a year the time until one receives the 2nd contract AND evermore reduces any benefits that one accrues incrementally through various seniority minimum salary and other benefits/protections.
I think there are more arguments that it's better to be in the 2nd round than the bottom of the first round (as one could become a free agent sooner) in a given year than the argument that it's ever likely to be smarter to chose to be the 30th pick next year instead of the 20th pick this year. But more than willing to be schooled if I am thinking about this incorrectly.

Go Duke!!!!!! Go Blue Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, getting to the second contract earlier has a definitive advantage, all other things being equal. But that has nothing to do with your draft position, which was Jason's argument. Obviously, I have no idea if Bullock will improve more next year in college or in the pros (if he makes an NBA roster, which isn't certain).

[BD80]

Otto Porter in:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22077431/georgetowns-otto-porter-heading-to-nba

I hope he falls to the Pistons

[NashvilleDevil]

Otto Porter in:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22077431/georgetowns-otto-porter-heading-to-nba

I hope he falls to the Pistons

On Simmons podcast, Chad Ford said the Cavs love him and he will not get past them.

[NSDukeFan]

Why? I hear he has a pretty good relationship with his coach :D

McDermott might make some extra $ leaving now, but another year with his dad would ensure a successful year for them both, and improve his father's financial security. I'd want the extra year with my dad.

While he might lose a few spots in the draft, he is not going to be a superstar at the next level. The heightened athleticism in the NBA will greatly reduce his effectiveness. An extra year in college will help him physically.

I guess it depends on priorities and how you spend or take care of your money. He would make 2.8 million over 3 years as the 30th pick instead of 3.7 million as the 20th pick (http://www.hoopsworld.com/2012-13-rookie-salary-scale) but if he had a great senior year with his father, ended up as one of the top 10 all-time NCAA scorers with around 3000 points (he is currently at 2216 after scoring over 800 each of the past two years) (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/51586/doug-mcdermott) to become a college basketball legend (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_career_ scoring_leaders), it might be worth the risk that he doesn't get that second contract or improves enough to get drafted as high or has a better chance of getting a second contract. There are a lot of people who could do quite well with a start to their career with over a million dollars in the bank if he was a great saver.

[BD80]

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope declares:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22077495/georgias-caldwell-pope-leaving-for-nba

[MarkD83]

So have more than 50 undergraduates been told they will be one of the top 14 picks in the draft yet?

[slower]

Adrian Wojarnijojaskijonari says (https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/323799373681143809) UNC's Reggie Bullock is strongly leaning toward the NBA and will have a final decision today.

Considering this is a weak draft and next year is expected to be LOADED with wings/forwards, I can't imagine why Bullock would come back. I think Hairston made a mistake too. Heck, it could perhaps even be argued that Rasheed Suliamon should have come out, though his draft stock is less certain and he needs more consistency to ensure he is a first rounder in the future. I just question how much Hairston and Bullock can improve their draft stock given that next year is going to be a much, much stronger draft class.

-Jason "similarly, Doug McDermott would be a fool to come back, I think" Evans

Many Tarheel faithful now firmly convinced Wiggins is theirs.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope declares:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22077495/georgias-caldwell-pope-leaving-for-nba

You just wanted to spell out his name, didn't you? ;)

[BD80]

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope declares:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22077495/georgias-caldwell-pope-leaving-for-nba


You just wanted to spell out his name, didn't you? ;)

Pretty sure I wouldn't be able to. Cut and paste all the way!

He probably has some pretty cool knicknames: C-Pope?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Pretty sure I wouldn't be able to. Cut and paste all the way!

He probably has some pretty cool knicknames: C-Pope?

You gotta incorporate his first name in the nickname. It's the best part!

[Newton_14]

So have more than 50 undergraduates been told they will be one of the top 14 picks in the draft yet?

Although stated half in jest, this is still a great point. Someone upstream posted early entry is not a crisis due to only 9 being drafted last season. Well, actually that highlights the problem. The number of early entrants each year goes far beyond the amount of draft spots available. A very large amount of kids throw away the remainder of their college careers after being sold a bill of goods by fraudulent hangers-on telling them how great they are, only to go undrafted. They blow their chance to have a great college career and leave a meaningful legacy in college while also failing to get the college degree that most are going to actually need to succeed in life. Instead they end up in the D-League making peanuts, or in the Middle East/EurAsia leagues somewhere making peanuts in a miserable life before finally giving up and coming home. The number of failed outcomes far out number the number of success stories where guys make it to the NBA, stick there, and make real money.

Yet every year we see it over and over again. This year will be even worse because so many are calling this the worst draft ever, so even more marginal kids who are nowhere near NBA ready physically/mentally/basketball skill set wise, will be convinced to come out when they have no business doing so. We, the basketball/sports society both media wise and "advisors" have sold these kids a bill of goods. The reality is that for every Noel Nerlens (who will make it but certainly is no guarantee to ever sniff an All-NBA team) there are hundreds of William Avery's who should stay in school all 4 years, get their degree's, and go into the draft, mentally, physically, and basketball skillset ready to have a fighting chance to make it, but ultimately get bad advice and end up both throwing away what would have been an awesome college career and legacy, and failing to make it to or make it but not stick in the NBA. They are left with no degree, and no ability to make life sustaining money playing the game they have loved since birth.

The latest hot "one-liner" being fed to these kids is "you need to go now son to maximize your position in the draft". Too many are buying it.

I have no issue for the Anthony Davis' of the world choosing to be one and done. Those type kids are locks to make it big. If they want to give up college and go that is fine, but if like a Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, many others, etc, those guys choose to enjoy 3 or the full four seasons of college such that they get a degree, leave a legacy as an all time college great, and then go be great NBA players, I applaud that too. Last I checked, all of those guys are multi-millionaires with enough money in the bank to both last a lifetime, and pass down to relatives to secure their futures as well. So in my mind, they did not cost themselves a damn thing by enjoying 3 to 4 years of college.

But it's the marginal kids that throw that away on bad guidance and end up with nothing on either end (college or professional) that just bothers me to no end.

[ncexnyc]

Although stated half in jest, this is still a great point. Someone upstream posted early entry is not a crisis due to only 9 being drafted last season. Well, actually that highlights the problem. The number of early entrants each year goes far beyond the amount of draft spots available. A very large amount of kids throw away the remainder of their college careers after being sold a bill of goods by fraudulent hangers-on telling them how great they are, only to go undrafted. They blow their chance to have a great college career and leave a meaningful legacy in college while also failing to get the college degree that most are going to actually need to succeed in life. Instead they end up in the D-League making peanuts, or in the Middle East/EurAsia leagues somewhere making peanuts in a miserable life before finally giving up and coming home. The number of failed outcomes far out number the number of success stories where guys make it to the NBA, stick there, and make real money.

Yet every year we see it over and over again. This year will be even worse because so many are calling this the worst draft ever, so even more marginal kids who are nowhere near NBA ready physically/mentally/basketball skill set wise, will be convinced to come out when they have no business doing so. We, the basketball/sports society both media wise and "advisors" have sold these kids a bill of goods. The reality is that for every Noel Nerlens (who will make it but certainly is no guarantee to ever sniff an All-NBA team) there are hundreds of William Avery's who should stay in school all 4 years, get their degree's, and go into the draft, mentally, physically, and basketball skillset ready to have a fighting chance to make it, but ultimately get bad advice and end up both throwing away what would have been an awesome college career and legacy, and failing to make it to or make it but not stick in the NBA. They are left with no degree, and no ability to make life sustaining money playing the game they have loved since birth.

The latest hot "one-liner" being fed to these kids is "you need to go now son to maximize your position in the draft". Too many are buying it.

I have no issue for the Anthony Davis' of the world choosing to be one and done. Those type kids are locks to make it big. If they want to give up college and go that is fine, but if like a Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, many others, etc, those guys choose to enjoy 3 or the full four seasons of college such that they get a degree, leave a legacy as an all time college great, and then go be great NBA players, I applaud that too. Last I checked, all of those guys are multi-millionaires with enough money in the bank to both last a lifetime, and pass down to relatives to secure their futures as well. So in my mind, they did not cost themselves a damn thing by enjoying 3 to 4 years of college.

But it's the marginal kids that throw that away on bad guidance and end up with nothing on either end (college or professional) that just bothers me to no end.

I have a hard time getting too upset over this situation. Let's be honest. How many of these kids would even be sniffing a college campus if it weren't for their ability to play basketball? Their ultimate goal is to make it to the NBA. While you and many others may have fond memories about your time in school for many of these kids it's a necessary evil. I also think it's unfair to point out the number of early entry busts, as even if kids do stay the whole four years, the number of available bodies is far more than the NBA needs.

Are some of these kids getting bad info? Yes, you're probably right about that, but what can we do about that, since many of these so called advisors are in some cases family members. If your own family doesn't have your best interest at heart, who will?

[niveklaen]

On Simmons podcast, Chad Ford said the Cavs love him and he will not get past them.

I hope this happens - he would complement Kyrie's game well whereas if he went to Detroit we would be competing with Kyle for pt

[BD80]

I hope this happens - he would complement Kyrie's game well whereas if he went to Detroit we would be competing with Kyle for pt

And the brilliant Pistons have closed the season with a 4 game winning streak to move from #4 in the draft to #8. Well, there's always the lottery ...

[MarkD83]

Although stated half in jest, this is still a great point. Someone upstream posted early entry is not a crisis due to only 9 being drafted last season. Well, actually that highlights the problem. The number of early entrants each year goes far beyond the amount of draft spots available. A very large amount of kids throw away the remainder of their college careers after being sold a bill of goods by fraudulent hangers-on telling them how great they are, only to go undrafted. They blow their chance to have a great college career and leave a meaningful legacy in college while also failing to get the college degree that most are going to actually need to succeed in life. Instead they end up in the D-League making peanuts, or in the Middle East/EurAsia leagues somewhere making peanuts in a miserable life before finally giving up and coming home. The number of failed outcomes far out number the number of success stories where guys make it to the NBA, stick there, and make real money.

Yet every year we see it over and over again. This year will be even worse because so many are calling this the worst draft ever, so even more marginal kids who are nowhere near NBA ready physically/mentally/basketball skill set wise, will be convinced to come out when they have no business doing so. We, the basketball/sports society both media wise and "advisors" have sold these kids a bill of goods. The reality is that for every Noel Nerlens (who will make it but certainly is no guarantee to ever sniff an All-NBA team) there are hundreds of William Avery's who should stay in school all 4 years, get their degree's, and go into the draft, mentally, physically, and basketball skillset ready to have a fighting chance to make it, but ultimately get bad advice and end up both throwing away what would have been an awesome college career and legacy, and failing to make it to or make it but not stick in the NBA. They are left with no degree, and no ability to make life sustaining money playing the game they have loved since birth.

The latest hot "one-liner" being fed to these kids is "you need to go now son to maximize your position in the draft". Too many are buying it.

I have no issue for the Anthony Davis' of the world choosing to be one and done. Those type kids are locks to make it big. If they want to give up college and go that is fine, but if like a Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, many others, etc, those guys choose to enjoy 3 or the full four seasons of college such that they get a degree, leave a legacy as an all time college great, and then go be great NBA players, I applaud that too. Last I checked, all of those guys are multi-millionaires with enough money in the bank to both last a lifetime, and pass down to relatives to secure their futures as well. So in my mind, they did not cost themselves a damn thing by enjoying 3 to 4 years of college.

But it's the marginal kids that throw that away on bad guidance and end up with nothing on either end (college or professional) that just bothers me to no end.

I did add my comment half in-jest but I am glad that you pointed out many things that I have always thoought about the draft. Up until now having more players declare for the draft and having more selection come draft day is a good business model for an NBA GM. Some one above you in the draft may make a mistake if there are not enough good players to draft. However, the NBA may want to start to notice that every year seems to be the "weakest" draft ever and more and more drafted players end up in the D league. The reason is the analogy that Jay Bilas has used about over-fishing a pond. After so many years of players entering the draft early the talent pool is getting worse and worse. I would even argue that Anthony Davis and Nerlen Noels have or are about to make a mistake going into the draft early. They will definitley have a long career but they have holes in their games that might keep them from being all-stars or getting that 2nd great contract. if you look at the draft 15-20 years ago the top draft pick was almost always an all-star right away and had very few if any holes in their games.

[pfrduke]

I did add my comment half in-jest but I am glad that you pointed out many things that I have always thoought about the draft. Up until now having more players declare for the draft and having more selection come draft day is a good business model for an NBA GM. Some one above you in the draft may make a mistake if there are not enough good players to draft. However, the NBA may want to start to notice that every year seems to be the "weakest" draft ever and more and more drafted players end up in the D league. The reason is the analogy that Jay Bilas has used about over-fishing a pond. After so many years of players entering the draft early the talent pool is getting worse and worse. I would even argue that Anthony Davis and Nerlen Noels have or are about to make a mistake going into the draft early. They will definitley have a long career but they have holes in their games that might keep them from being all-stars or getting that 2nd great contract. if you look at the draft 15-20 years ago the top draft pick was almost always an all-star right away and had very few if any holes in their games.

1998-1994 (15-20 drafts ago) was a bit of a mixed bag for top picks. You had clear successes in Duncan and Iverson sandwiched by Joe Smith and Michael Olowokandi, and Glenn Robinson leading that off (an all-star twice, but not right away and someone who had only a fair career). You could make an argument that the past five years of Rose, Griffin, Wall, Irving, and Davis is, at the aggregate level, better than the 5 from that window.

[A-Tex Devil]

Yes, getting to the second contract earlier has a definitive advantage, all other things being equal. But that has nothing to do with your draft position, which was Jason's argument. Obviously, I have no idea if Bullock will improve more next year in college or in the pros (if he makes an NBA roster, which isn't certain).

My take on it is this -- if your ultimate goal is to be a professional basketball player, then if you can make an NBA team, and therefore practice with an NBA team, or even make a D-League team or a a high level European team, you'll improve your game (for what the pros need in a player) more than you will if you stay in college. Simple time on the court and access to coaches make it so. The NCAA limits hours that the coaches can be with the players. I think the only reasons to stay in college, for basketball related reasons, are media exposure (which can be a boost) and depending on the draft from year to year, it may also make sense to go or stay from a $$ perspective.

There are a million, non-basketball, reasons to stay in school. And I think most people that choose to stay, from very borderline cases like Rasheed (who might get a first round grade this year), to guys like Shane and JJ, and even HB after his freshman year, do so because they are enjoying themselves. And there is a whole heck of a lot to be said for that.

[Duvall]

BREAKING NEWS: Shabazz Muhammad to declare for the NBA Draft. (http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/041613aaa.html)

[Kedsy]

BREAKING NEWS: Shabazz Muhammad to declare for the NBA Draft. (http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/041613aaa.html)

That news broke in 2012.

[Duvall]

That news broke in 2012.

Oh, much earlier than that. (http://www.latimes.com/news/columnone/la-fi-shabazz-muhammad-inc-20130322-dto,0,3133186.htmlstory)

[MarkD83]

My take on it is this -- if your ultimate goal is to be a professional basketball player, then if you can make an NBA team, and therefore practice with an NBA team, or even make a D-League team or a a high level European team, you'll improve your game (for what the pros need in a player) more than you will if you stay in college. Simple time on the court and access to coaches make it so. The NCAA limits hours that the coaches can be with the players. I think the only reasons to stay in college, for basketball related reasons, are media exposure (which can be a boost) and depending on the draft from year to year, it may also make sense to go or stay from a $$ perspective.

There are a million, non-basketball, reasons to stay in school. And I think most people that choose to stay, from very borderline cases like Rasheed (who might get a first round grade this year), to guys like Shane and JJ, and even HB after his freshman year, do so because they are enjoying themselves. And there is a whole heck of a lot to be said for that.

The bolded quote is what I am not sure is true in the NBA, although it may be true in the D league. In the NBA you have 3-4 games a week and travel days in between. The coaches are probably more concerned about the game plans for the next opponents. If you come into the league with limited offensive moves, the coaches may not want to teach you how to improve your offensive game. They could always get someone with better offensive skills in the next draft or through a trade or free-agency. In addition, if you do get on the court during a game it is to use you best skills not to improve skills you don't have. For example, if you are a great shooter and can't drive the coach is putting you in the game to shoot. If you drive and miss a few shots you are back on the bench. In college on the other hand if you are one of the best players you will stay on the court even if you go out of your comfort zone and try new things. College coaches may not have any other options.

[Barr8]

Didn't see it mentioned...

Vander Blue declares how many underclass men is this now? I haven't seen his name on a couple mock drafts that I have looked at. What can he have been told? Perhaps over seas sounds better than college to him

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9177868/vander-blue-marquette-golden-eagles-pins-hopes-nba-draft

[Dev11]

The coaches are probably more concerned about the game plans for the next opponents. If you come into the league with limited offensive moves, the coaches may not want to teach you how to improve your offensive game. They could always get someone with better offensive skills in the next draft or through a trade or free-agency.

You may be right, but that runs counter to how many teams draft players. They draft unfinished products because they want to finish their games. There is an obvious fallacy here if professional coaches do not have time to teach their players new moves during the season. I think that said fallacy is what gives me the impression that a lot of NBA players aren't as good as they could be.

[A-Tex Devil]

You may be right, but that runs counter to how many teams draft players. They draft unfinished products because they want to finish their games. There is an obvious fallacy here if professional coaches do not have time to teach their players new moves during the season. I think that said fallacy is what gives me the impression that a lot of NBA players aren't as good as they could be.

But NBA staffs are huge. Cuban famously had almost a 1:1 coach to player ratio one year. Each team has assistants that aren't even on the bench during the games. NBA teams can carry rosters of 15, etc. etc. When I said NBA players get more "on-court" time, it wasn't just games, it was practices as well, including lots of one on one time with assistants. Plus they are teaching the game as it's played in the NBA (for better or worse), not based on a college coach's system.

Include with all of that, game film broken down and plugged into mobile apps by team staff specialized for individual players, statistics for every player in the league broken down in excruciating detail, etc. etc. College teams simply can't keep up with things like this, as far as I'm aware.

[gam7]

Didn't see it mentioned...

Vander Blue declares how many underclass men is this now? I haven't seen his name on a couple mock drafts that I have looked at. What can he have been told? Perhaps over seas sounds better than college to him

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9177868/vander-blue-marquette-golden-eagles-pins-hopes-nba-draft

He was probably considered unlikely to come out this year (which is probably why he's not listed in mocks), but for 2014, draftexpress has him right next to Sulaimon in mid-late first round. He was probably told what we already know, which is that next year will be a pretty stacked draft (in the lottery at least) and he's unlikely to improve his draft status enough to break into the lottery next year. In other words, he'll likely go in the same range this year as he would go next year (assuming his stock doesn't actually go down next year).

[BD80]

BREAKING NEWS: Shabazz Muhammad to declare for the NBA Draft. (http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/041613aaa.html)


That news broke in 2012.


Oh, much earlier than that. (http://www.latimes.com/news/columnone/la-fi-shabazz-muhammad-inc-20130322-dto,0,3133186.htmlstory)

The die was cast when it was determined his mom was carrying a boy ...

[InSpades]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2013-04-16/nba-draft-early-entrants-2013-underclassmen-list-whos-going-pro-players

This list has 31 and seems up to date to me (though I'm not paying 110% to this or anything).

So that means they all can't be 1st round picks :).

Throw in a few seniors who will probably get drafted in the 1st round (Plumlee, McCollum, Withey?) and a few foreigners as well as a few more who will inevitably declare and we'll see how this turns out. Getting drafted in the 2nd round isn't the worst thing ever (see Boozer, Singler) but it's probably not what any of them are looking for.

[westwall]

Humm. Where is the Louisville guard, Russ Smith, on TSN list?? Pitino said earlier that Smith was declaring. A change of mind, or is the list incomplete??

[Rich]

But NBA staffs are huge. Cuban famously had almost a 1:1 coach to player ratio one year. Each team has assistants that aren't even on the bench during the games. NBA teams can carry rosters of 15, etc. etc. When I said NBA players get more "on-court" time, it wasn't just games, it was practices as well, including lots of one on one time with assistants. Plus they are teaching the game as it's played in the NBA (for better or worse), not based on a college coach's system.

Include with all of that, game film broken down and plugged into mobile apps by team staff specialized for individual players, statistics for every player in the league broken down in excruciating detail, etc. etc. College teams simply can't keep up with things like this, as far as I'm aware.

Practice? We're talking about practice? What are we talking about? Practice?

Classic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGDBR2L5kzI

[Olympic Fan]

Just to be clear, the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft is April 28.

Today is an NCAA deadline to withdraw from the draft. Any player who earlier declared -- say, Lorenzo Brown -- could withdraw his name at up today.

But a player such a Russ Smith or James Michael McAdoo, who has not decided, still has almost two more weeks to make up is mind. But after today, once a player officially declares for the draft, he's in for good.

[dukedoc]

Wow, Marcus Smart is returning to school next year. Very surprising. The draft just got even weaker.

[superdave]

Wow, Marcus Smart is returning to school next year. Very surprising. The draft just got even weaker.

Not a smart decision. Smart would have been a top 3 pick with an outside change of being #1 overall. You can only drop from there. He will not top Wiggins in next year's draft and there's a couple of other guys who would likely be better prospects as well. Even if he goes top 5, he's costing himself one year of salary and delaying his second and third contracts by a year. And he could get injured while playing for free.

[FerryFor50]

Not a smart decision. Smart would have been a top 3 pick with an outside change of being #1 overall. You can only drop from there. He will not top Wiggins in next year's draft and there's a couple of other guys who would likely be better prospects as well. Even if he goes top 5, he's costing himself one year of salary and delaying his second and third contracts by a year. And he could get injured while playing for free.

On the flip side of the coin, good for him for coming back to work on his game and help his college team get better!

[ScreechTDX1847]

One thing irks me about folks saying some of these kids should leave because "their stock won't be higher" next year, etc. I feel like no one ever considers the fact that for A LOT of these kids staying college for another, getting better, maturing physically, etc gives them a much better chance to have a longer pro career.

It's easy to be flash in the pan, get a high draft pick, and then not actually be prepared to produce at the highest level. As we all know, most of the time you get a shot with one team and if it doesn't pan out in 2-3 years tops then you are essentially dismissed by the pro ranks.

Being more prepared to play in the NBA also gives you a better chance at getting a second contract and, more than likely, a more lucrative one.

Don't you think Kyle Singler is much more prepared to play in the NBA after four years then he was after he was a lottery pick his Freshman year? Austin Rivers wouldn't have benefited by staying another year or two even though he a draft pick?

I, personally, don't think a player has ever made a bad decision by staying in college another year. Obviously, players like Durant, Kyrie, etc. are so freakin talented they don't need to get better but how many players are there really like that. And still, they would have improved with another year in college as well.

[ScreechTDX1847]

Not a smart decision.

Pun intended?

[Olympic Fan]

I'm not going to revive the Quinn Cook thread, but I will say that the Smart decision makes it very, VERY unlikely that Quinn is the nation's best point guard next season.

[TexHawk]

One thing irks me about folks saying some of these kids should leave because "their stock won't be higher" next year, etc. I feel like no one ever considers the fact that for A LOT of these kids staying college for another, getting better, maturing physically, etc gives them a much better chance to have a longer pro career.

It's easy to be flash in the pan, get a high draft pick, and then not actually be prepared to produce at the highest level. As we all know, most of the time you get a shot with one team and if it doesn't pan out in 2-3 years tops then you are essentially dismissed by the pro ranks.

Being more prepared to play in the NBA also gives you a better chance at getting a second contract and, more than likely, a more lucrative one.


Sorry, but I disagree. Strenuously. Marcus Smart would be getting 24/7 access to professional coaches and trainers in the NBA. He gets 20 hours a week at OSU. I guarantee he'd be more mature physically with round-the-clock personal trainers and nutritionists.

While I see your point, I don't see how an extra year of college basketball better prepares you, in comparison to the NBA. Yes, I see value in learning how to "be the man", hopefully playing in pressure packed conference games + NCAA tournament games. But those aren't guaranteed. In Smart's case, the Big12 will be down again, and he'll get to beat up on TCU and Texas Tech. His team will likely be Top 10 good, but they won't have any size, so a Final 4 is possible but not guaranteed.

Contrast that with playing 4 games a week, against elite level competition. Trade Texas Tech for the Miami Heat. Beating up on small town 2 star Texas kids does not make you a better basketball player, being on the same court with Lebron James and Dwayne Wade does. In fact, I would bet some NBA GMs are questioning Marcus Smart's passion for competition this morning. That could hurt him the 2014 draft.

[ScreechTDX1847]

Sorry, but I disagree. Strenuously. Marcus Smart would be getting 24/7 access to professional coaches and trainers in the NBA. He gets 20 hours a week at OSU. I guarantee he'd be more mature physically with round-the-clock personal trainers and nutritionists.

While I see your point, I don't see how an extra year of college basketball better prepares you, in comparison to the NBA. Yes, I see value in learning how to "be the man", hopefully playing in pressure packed conference games + NCAA tournament games. But those aren't guaranteed. In Smart's case, the Big12 will be down again, and he'll get to beat up on TCU and Texas Tech. His team will likely be Top 10 good, but they won't have any size, so a Final 4 is possible but not guaranteed.

Contrast that with playing 4 games a week, against elite level competition. Trade Texas Tech for the Miami Heat. Beating up on small town 2 star Texas kids does not make you a better basketball player, being on the same court with Lebron James and Dwayne Wade does. In fact, I would bet some NBA GMs are questioning Marcus Smart's passion for competition this morning. That could hurt him the 2014 draft.

Don't be sorry. I disagree with you. Strenuously. You get one shot at the NBA - if you don't make it in a year or two then you are out for good a lot of time. I can understand wanting to be as prepared for that one shot as possible.

Obviously, there are exceptions and Marcus Smart may be one of them. I don't think this applies to top 3/5 picks as much as the rest of the draft.

[CDu]

Don't be sorry. I disagree with you. Strenuously. You get one shot at the NBA - if you don't make it in a year or two then you are out for good a lot of time. I can understand wanting to be as prepared for that one shot as possible.

Obviously, there are exceptions and Marcus Smart may be one of them. I don't think this applies to top 3/5 picks as much as the rest of the draft.

If you are not a lottery pick, I agree that maximizing your readiness for your one shot may make sense. But in Smart's case, he would almost certainly have been a high lottery pick. That virtually guarantees that (a) teams will invest the time in developing him and (b) he'll get a shot beyond his first two years.

In Smart's case (as with any projected top-5 pick), the decision to stay is unequivocally a bad one financially and a bad one in terms of his preparation for NBA success. Those are not the only factors to consider when making that decision. But to argue that a likely top-5 or even top-10 pick would be better off staying in school to prepare for the NBA is not a strong argument. Unlike mid/late 1st rounders or 2nd rounders, high draft picks tend to get multiple looks from the NBA. And they get better training for the NBA by being in the NBA rather than in college.

[yancem]

If you are not a lottery pick, I agree that maximizing your readiness for your one shot may make sense. But in Smart's case, he would almost certainly have been a high lottery pick. That virtually guarantees that (a) teams will invest the time in developing him and (b) he'll get a shot beyond his first two years.

In Smart's case (as with any projected top-5 pick), the decision to stay is unequivocally a bad one financially and a bad one in terms of his preparation for NBA success. Those are not the only factors to consider when making that decision. But to argue that a likely top-5 or even top-10 pick would be better off staying in school to prepare for the NBA is not a strong argument. Unlike mid/late 1st rounders or 2nd rounders, high draft picks tend to get multiple looks from the NBA. And they get better training for the NBA by being in the NBA rather than in college.

Well, there is more to being successful in the nba than basketball skills. Take Kwami Brown for instance. He didn't have the life skills to cope with the day to day life of being a professional. Mentally he wasn't prepared for the nba and it showed in his first couple of years. If he had gone to college and learned to take care of himself in a more controlled environment he may have been better able to focus on basketball as a profession and come closer to reaching his potential. Certainly basketball ability is extremely important to make it as a professional basketball player but personal and mental maturity is just as important and I do think that a person can work on these areas better in college than in the nba. College coaches and their staffs are better equipped to help their player develop as a person and grow into adulthood, while nba staffs focus almost entirely on basketball. Now, some franchises may provide more resources to the younger players but on a whole I don't think that this is a strength of the nba. Of course there probably college programs that fail in this regard as well.

[TexHawk]

Don't be sorry. I disagree with you. Strenuously. You get one shot at the NBA - if you don't make it in a year or two then you are out for good a lot of time. I can understand wanting to be as prepared for that one shot as possible.

Obviously, there are exceptions and Marcus Smart may be one of them. I don't think this applies to top 3/5 picks as much as the rest of the draft.

Examples? Off the top of my head, Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo got second shots, Wesley Johnson did as well. So did Hasheem Thabeet, Johnny Flynn, Jerod Bayless, Yi Jianlian, Brandan Wright, Corey Brewer. Kwame Brown got about 50. Current disappointments like Derrick Williams will absolutely get another chance.

The fact that there are so few options on the opposite side of this argument should tell you something. Your own Jason Williams would have been a good comparison, but his return had a lot to do with education + a great shot at another title. Unfortunately we didn't get to see how that turned out.

[TexHawk]

Well, there is more to being successful in the nba than basketball skills. Take Kwami Brown for instance. He didn't have the life skills to cope with the day to day life of being a professional. Mentally he wasn't prepared for the nba and it showed in his first couple of years. If he had gone to college and learned to take care of himself in a more controlled environment he may have been better able to focus on basketball as a profession and come closer to reaching his potential. Certainly basketball ability is extremely important to make it as a professional basketball player but personal and mental maturity is just as important and I do think that a person can work on these areas better in college than in the nba. College coaches and their staffs are better equipped to help their player develop as a person and grow into adulthood, while nba staffs focus almost entirely on basketball. Now, some franchises may provide more resources to the younger players but on a whole I don't think that this is a strength of the nba. Of course there probably college programs that fail in this regard as well.

I don't entirely disagree with this, it is a good point. But it is a case-by-case thing, and if you look at Marcus Smart, I don't think you can find a more direct opposite of Kwame Brown. He was the Big12 player of the year, he brought OSU back to the NCAA tournament, he almost personally defeated KU in AFH with some fantastic adjustments, defense, and rebounding. Every writer who covers the Big12 raved about his innate ability to control games on both ends of the court, as well as *ahem* his ability to play the officials.

I know this is a discussion about OADs overall, and not necessarily Smart himself, but the above just makes his decision all the more shocking to me.

[BD80]

Catch 22. If the kid is mature enough to return to college, he probably could handle the NBA lifestyle.

If a kid thinks he can handle the NBA lifestyle, HE PROBABLY CAN'T.

[ChillinDuke]

I don't entirely disagree with this, it is a good point. But it is a case-by-case thing, and if you look at Marcus Smart, I don't think you can find a more direct opposite of Kwame Brown. He was the Big12 player of the year, he brought OSU back to the NCAA tournament, he almost personally defeated KU in AFH with some fantastic adjustments, defense, and rebounding. Every writer who covers the Big12 raved about his innate ability to control games on both ends of the court, as well as *ahem* his ability to play the officials.

I know this is a discussion about OADs overall, and not necessarily Smart himself, but the above just makes his decision all the more shocking to me.

I don't follow the NBA as closely as others here, but I completely agree with the bolded part above. It really depends on each unique player and situation.

Also, I think the whole "to enter or not to enter" debate hinges less on the question "What number draft pick will I be?" and more on the question "Will I make an NBA roster?"

Obviously both questions are difficult, but my gut says a player is more likely to get a second chance if he's been on an NBA roster and not in the D-League. I'm sure there's a correlation here between # draft pick and making an NBA roster, but you get my drift.

- Chillin

[mr. synellinden]

Tim Hardaway, Jr., come on down (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130417/michigan-tim-hardaway-jr-draft.ap/?sct=hp_t2_a5&eref=sihp). You're the next contestant on, I'm ready to get paid to play.

[brevity]

Try as I might, I'm not seeing an upside to Marcus Smart's decision to return to Oklahoma State.

1. One of the arguments against returning is the risk of injury while playing another year of unpaid ball. This season we all saw the worst case scenario with Kevin Ware. Yes, it's a freak accident unlikely to be duplicated. But don't you think a bunch of underclassmen immediately made their decision to leave after that?

2. It's possible for a player to improve his draft stock by returning to college, but Smart in particular has nowhere to go but down. While not a great comparison, Cody Zeller is the most recent example of someone who returned. It was hard to criticize him too strongly: he'd be the top draw for Indiana, the top-ranked team. It looked like a terrific reason to stay. But then Zeller was overshadowed by his own teammate, didn't win the title, and lost draft stock. Smart won't have an Oladipo, but he will be holding together a top-15 team with duct tape. National champs? Try the Elite 8 as a dream ceiling.

3. I buy the education argument less and less. I don't know Smart's academic situation, but it had to take a hit last fall when he debuted on the court as strongly as he did. He plays a position that invites a ridiculous amount of salivation, and it's hard not to let that go to your head. We almost certainly know that he will not be a 4-year player. So is a 2-year education really that much better?

4. Finally, it's possible that he really doesn't want to play for the Charlotte Bobcats, but it seems safe to say that he has an equal chance to end up there in 2014.

[chrishoke]

Try as I might, I'm not seeing an upside to Marcus Smart's decision to return to Oklahoma State.

1. One of the arguments against returning is the risk of injury while playing another year of unpaid ball. This season we all saw the worst case scenario with Kevin Ware. Yes, it's a freak accident unlikely to be duplicated. But don't you think a bunch of underclassmen immediately made their decision to leave after that?

2. It's possible for a player to improve his draft stock by returning to college, but Smart in particular has nowhere to go but down. While not a great comparison, Cody Zeller is the most recent example of someone who returned. It was hard to criticize him too strongly: he'd be the top draw for Indiana, the top-ranked team. It looked like a terrific reason to stay. But then Zeller was overshadowed by his own teammate, didn't win the title, and lost draft stock. Smart won't have an Oladipo, but he will be holding together a top-15 team with duct tape. National champs? Try the Elite 8 as a dream ceiling.

3. I buy the education argument less and less. I don't know Smart's academic situation, but it had to take a hit last fall when he debuted on the court as strongly as he did. He plays a position that invites a ridiculous amount of salivation, and it's hard not to let that go to your head. We almost certainly know that he will not be a 4-year player. So is a 2-year education really that much better?

4. Finally, it's possible that he really doesn't want to play for the Charlotte Bobcats, but it seems safe to say that he has an equal chance to end up there in 2014.

Another factor, the kid's maturity (which I know nothing about). He and his parents may think he is not ready for the NBA lifestyle. The kid is what, 19?

[Duvall]

Tim Hardaway, Jr., come on down (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130417/michigan-tim-hardaway-jr-draft.ap/?sct=hp_t2_a5&eref=sihp). You're the next contestant on, I'm ready to get paid to play.

Relevant. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToEMyjPS2SQ)

[MCFinARL]

Try as I might, I'm not seeing an upside to Marcus Smart's decision to return to Oklahoma State.

1. One of the arguments against returning is the risk of injury while playing another year of unpaid ball. This season we all saw the worst case scenario with Kevin Ware. Yes, it's a freak accident unlikely to be duplicated. But don't you think a bunch of underclassmen immediately made their decision to leave after that?

2. It's possible for a player to improve his draft stock by returning to college, but Smart in particular has nowhere to go but down. While not a great comparison, Cody Zeller is the most recent example of someone who returned. It was hard to criticize him too strongly: he'd be the top draw for Indiana, the top-ranked team. It looked like a terrific reason to stay. But then Zeller was overshadowed by his own teammate, didn't win the title, and lost draft stock. Smart won't have an Oladipo, but he will be holding together a top-15 team with duct tape. National champs? Try the Elite 8 as a dream ceiling.

3. I buy the education argument less and less. I don't know Smart's academic situation, but it had to take a hit last fall when he debuted on the court as strongly as he did. He plays a position that invites a ridiculous amount of salivation, and it's hard not to let that go to your head. We almost certainly know that he will not be a 4-year player. So is a 2-year education really that much better?

4. Finally, it's possible that he really doesn't want to play for the Charlotte Bobcats, but it seems safe to say that he has an equal chance to end up there in 2014.

I'm going to suggest something heretical here--maybe Marcus Smart just LIKES being in college at Oklahoma State. Maybe he likes it enough that he is willing to take on a certain amount of risk to enjoy it for another year. I'm not saying this is a "smart" (pun acknowledged but not intended) decision, and it's almost certainly not an economically rational decision. But if he doesn't feel like he wants to leave college yet, for whatever reason, it's likely that he is better off staying in college, by his own calculation--which is the only one that matters in the end.

[turnandburn55]

I'm going to suggest something heretical here--maybe Marcus Smart just LIKES being in college at Oklahoma State. Maybe he likes it enough that he is willing to take on a certain amount of risk to enjoy it for another year. I'm not saying this is a "smart" (pun acknowledged but not intended) decision, and it's almost certainly not an economically rational decision. But if he doesn't feel like he wants to leave college yet, for whatever reason, it's likely that he is better off staying in college, by his own calculation--which is the only one that matters in the end.

I think the important thing to remember is that these are still kids. Going as a 19-year old to life on the road in the NBA for 82 games (and probably losing a lot of them) is a leap. Maybe physically guys are fine, but there's the risk of mental burnout as well. If a guy makes an honest self-assessment and says that another year with a 35-game schedule is what he needs for his own personal development before going to the big leagues-- then I'd say it's a fair decision. Heaven forbid the kid's goal is to show up to the NBA when he feels ready to do it, instead of when the NBA draftniks say that he's in the optimum economic position.

[awhom111]

I posted this information for the 2012 Draft in that thread. Since the conversation about leaving or staying continues on this thread, I thought I would do a similar look for the 2011 Draft for early entry players and a handful of players who started their professional careers outside of the NBA in the 2010-11 season and were thus automatically available for selection in this draft. I am using loose definitions for various levels of leagues outside the country. For Europe, highlevel includes the top few leagues (Spain, Russia) and some other consistent Euroleague teams. Midlevel teams are lower quality teams from top leagues and teams from places like Ukraine and Israel. Lowlevel teams are teams from lower quality countries or teams from the second division in top countries. In, Asia, I have China as highlevel, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Phillipines as midlevel, and everything else as lowlevel. In the Americas, Argentina, Brazil, and Puerto Rico are highlevel, Mexico, Venezuela, and the Dominican Republic as midlevel, and Canada and everything else in Latin America as lowlevel. A few players also appeared to play for US semipro teams which sometimes had few statistics available for me to confirm that the player actually played.

After looking through all the information, it is clear that a first round pick will at least get you two solid years in the league to try to prove yourself. Many of the second round picks were not kept for a second year after all of them at least were under contract for the first year. Jordan Williams is a clear cautionary tale from this draft and there are a few very sad stories among the players here. One guy was an NAIA bench player who decided to declare as a joke once he decided that he was quitting basketball. A few undrafted players look to be creating nice careers for themselves although none of the players are having overwhelmingly great overseas careers yet.



Name Team Draft 2011-12 2012-13
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ____________________
Alec Burks Colorado 1st NBA NBA
DeAngelo Casto Washington State No Midlevel Europe Midlevel Asia
Roscoe Davis Midland JC (TX) No None None
Mamadou Diarra Chaminade (HI) (4 years) No Lowlevel Europe cut from D League
Jeremy Green Stanford No D League (partial) Lowlevel Europe (partial)
Jordan Hamilton Texas 1st NBA NBA
Tobias Harris Tennessee 1st NBA NBA
Tyler Honeycutt UCLA 2nd NBA NBA, waived, D League
Scotty Hopson Tennessee No Midlevel Europe Lowlevel Europe
Kyrie Irving Duke 1st NBA NBA
Reggie Jackson Boston College 1st NBA NBA
Terrence Jennings Louisville No Lowlevel Europe D League
Cory Joseph Texas 1st NBA NBA
Enes Kanter Kentucky 1st NBA NBA
Ryan Kelley Colorado No semipro? None
Dan Kelm Viterbo (WI) No Intentional Joke Entry Intentional Joke Entry
Brandon Knight Kentucky 1st NBA NBA
Malcolm Lee UCLA 2nd NBA NBA
Kawhi Leonard San Diego State 1st NBA NBA
Travis Leslie Georgia 2nd NBA D League/some NBA
DeAndre Liggins Kentucky 2nd NBA NBA (signed as free agent)
Shelvin Mack Butler 2nd NBA D League/NBA
Keishawn Mayes Campbell No Lowlevel Americas None
Darius Morris Michigan 2nd NBA NBA
Marcus Morris Kansas 1st NBA NBA
Markieff Morris Kansas 1st NBA NBA
Willie Reed St. Louis No None D League/some NBA
Jereme Richmond Illinois No Semipro (partial) None
Carleton Scott Notre Dame No Lowlevel Europe D League
Josh Selby Kansas 2nd NBA NBA, waived, D League
Iman Shumpert Georgia Tech 1st NBA NBA
Chris Singleton Florida State 1st NBA NBA
Greg Smith Fresno State No Midlevel Americas/D League/some NBA NBA
Isaiah Thomas Washington 2nd NBA NBA
Trey Thompkins Georgia 2nd NBA Waived, No games played
Klay Thompson Washington State 1st NBA NBA
Tristan Thompson Texas 1st NBA NBA
Nikola Vucevic Southern California 1st NBA NBA
Kemba Walker Connecticut 1st NBA NBA
Antoine Watson Florida International No Semipro? None
Derrick Williams Arizona 1st NBA NBA
Jordan Williams Maryland 2nd NBA None

Michael Dunigan Lowlevel Europe No Midlevel Europe Midlevel Asia
Ater Majok Lowlevel Europe/Midlevel Asia No Lowlevel Europe Lowlevel Europe
Jamine Peterson Midlevel Europe/D League No D League/Lowlevel Europe/Midlevel Asia None
Jeremy Tyler Midlevel Europe/Lowlevel Asia 2nd NBA NBA, later waived, D League
Max Zhang China No China China

[tommy]

Arizona's freshman forward Grant Jerrett is going pro. Shocker. Had an ok freshman year and could've broken out this year along w Brandon Ashley and Tarczewski, but I guess not. This kid won't go in be first round, I dont think. This decision has to be driven by either 1) fear he can't beat out incoming stud freshman Aaron Gordon or Ashley, or 2) the weak draft this year. I think this kid is making a big mistake.

[FerryFor50]

Arizona's freshman forward Grant Jerrett is going pro. Shocker. Had an ok freshman year and could've broken out this year along w Brandon Ashley and Tarczewski, but I guess not. This kid won't go in be first round, I dont think. This decision has to be driven by either 1) fear he can't beat out incoming stud freshman Aaron Gordon or Ashley, or 2) the weak draft this year. I think this kid is making a big mistake.

How many are declaring to test the waters and not hiring agents?

[Olympic Fan]

How many are declaring to test the waters and not hiring agents?

Testing the waters is essentially a thing of the past. The NCAA has changed the withdrawl date -- it was last week.

Anybody in the draft now (or from now until the NBA deadline of April 28) is in for good.

[Matches]

3. I buy the education argument less and less. I don't know Smart's academic situation, but it had to take a hit last fall when he debuted on the court as strongly as he did. He plays a position that invites a ridiculous amount of salivation, and it's hard not to let that go to your head. We almost certainly know that he will not be a 4-year player. So is a 2-year education really that much better?


I pretty much never buy the education argument. It seems to assume that if a player leaves early he can never finish his education, which is demonstrably false. If a kid goes pro and the NBA doesn't work out, he can resume his education at that time - with a few million in the bank to live on. Tons of people take time off before going to college, or go later in life.

[roywhite]

Gary Harris returning for Sparty.

ESPN report on Michigan State (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9186334/gary-harris-michigan-state-spartans-return-sophomore-season)

Apparently no decision yet from big man Adreian Payne.

[NashvilleDevil]

I really do not understand some on this board thinking that Marcus Smart made the wrong decision. I know a lot on here are not fans of Shane Ryan but in his piece today about Smart's decision he brought up an interesting point and that was 10 years ago he would be hailed for staying in school. He is obviously aware the money he is leaving on the table but it is his decision.

[brevity]

I really do not understand some on this board thinking that Marcus Smart made the wrong decision. I know a lot on here are not fans of Shane Ryan but in his piece today about Smart's decision he brought up an interesting point and that was 10 years ago he would be hailed for staying in school. He is obviously aware the money he is leaving on the table but it is his decision.

10 years ago I would have agreed with both of you. Back then I would have frowned on a UNC junior leaving early. ("Come back, let us beat you a couple more times.") Ideally I'd want everyone to stay in school and make college basketball a better product. But the culture of NBA drafting has changed significantly: most franchises are interested in long term investments, not immediate impacts. They want the young and uninjured. (In the case of Nerlens Noel, just the young.)

Unless Marcus Smart is the heir of the Smart Car fortune, or his uncle Max secretly embezzled lots of CONTROL resources before he retired, he is the most important potential source of income in his family. The NBA and third party sponsors are willing to throw money at him once he leaves Oklahoma State. Is that worth putting off another year? Personally, it may be the right decision, but it's the wrong decision in every objective way.

[CDu]

I really do not understand some on this board thinking that Marcus Smart made the wrong decision. I know a lot on here are not fans of Shane Ryan but in his piece today about Smart's decision he brought up an interesting point and that was 10 years ago he would be hailed for staying in school. He is obviously aware the money he is leaving on the table but it is his decision.

Basing an argument on what people thought in the past is not a particularly sound approach. At one point in the past, it would have been frowned upon by all to have a child out of wedlock. Heck, at one point, cohabitating with a person of the opposite sex to whom you were not married or related to was taboo. At one point, it would have been frowned upon to have an interracial couple. At one point, women weren't allowed to vote, and it was standard belief that women weren't considered as capable as men in lots of areas of employment. Times change. People become wiser in some ways, and maybe less wise in others. But times change.

Is it his decision? Absolutely. That doesn't mean it is the smart decision from a financial perspective. I don't think anyone is bashing him for his desire to stay in school. They are just noting that it's not the fiscally wise decision.

[Ichabod Drain]

Both have announced they will return to Michigan next year. They should still have a pretty good team in Ann Arbor nect year.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9187463/glenn-robinson-iii-mitch-mcgary-return-michigan-wolverines

[CDu]

Gary Harris returning for Sparty.

ESPN report on Michigan State (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9186334/gary-harris-michigan-state-spartans-return-sophomore-season)

Apparently no decision yet from big man Adreian Payne.

I'd expect Payne to come back, too. But you never know. MSU could be pretty darn good next year, assuming they can replace Nix.

[Des Esseintes]

Is it his decision? Absolutely. That doesn't mean it is the smart decision from a financial perspective. I don't think anyone is bashing him for his desire to stay in school. They are just noting that it's not the fiscally wise decision.

Quite so, just as John Wall would have been leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars on the table had he matriculated to Duke for his year of college. Sometimes you have to make the pragmatic decisions.

[FerryFor50]

Kelly Olynyk is gone:

http://tracking.si.com/2013/04/19/gonzaga-kelly-olynyk-to-enter-nba-draft/?eref=sihp

[sagegrouse]

Quite so, just as John Wall would have been leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars on the table had he matriculated to Duke for his year of college. Sometimes you have to make the pragmatic decisions.

A leap of logic that is wa-a-a-a-y beyond me. Are you saying that John Wall is making more in the NBA (where there is a rookie salary scale) from going to Kentucky than from playing at Duke? Or, are you asserting that at Kentucky he (or his immediate) family was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars?

sagegrouse

[pfrduke]

A leap of logic that is wa-a-a-a-y beyond me. Are you saying that John Wall is making more in the NBA (where there is a rookie salary scale) from going to Kentucky than from playing at Duke? Or, are you asserting that at Kentucky he (or his immediate) family was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars?

sagegrouse

It's the latter and I suspect it's tongue in cheek (at least sort of).

[tommy]

Louisville's Russ Smith will decide tomorrow, and is 50-50, per Pitino.

[superdave]

Louisville's Russ Smith will decide tomorrow, and is 50-50, per Pitino.

It's a weak draft. He's 22 years old already. You gotta go for it!

[wk2109]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9207747/russ-smith-louisville-cardinals-returning-senior-year

[brevity]

It's a weak draft. He's 22 years old already. You gotta go for it!

Russ Smith is returning (http://tracking.si.com/2013/04/24/russ-smith-returning-louisville-cardinals/) to Louisville. The idea of schooling 5 or more Kentucky freshmen must have had its appeal.

Not clear to me if it's still a weak draft, now that almost everyone else has declared. Is 2014 that much better, or just a little more top heavy? "Weak draft" seems like a code phrase intended to purge college basketball of many of its good, young players.

[tommy]

Larkin will announce Sunday at 6. I bet he's gone.

[brevity]

C.J. Fair returning (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9208461/cj-fair-staying-syracuse-orange-senior-season) to Syracuse. Adjust your conference predictions accordingly.

[MCFinARL]

Russ Smith is returning (http://tracking.si.com/2013/04/24/russ-smith-returning-louisville-cardinals/) to Louisville. The idea of schooling 5 or more Kentucky freshmen must have had its appeal.

Not clear to me if it's still a weak draft, now that almost everyone else has declared. Is 2014 that much better, or just a little more top heavy? "Weak draft" seems like a code phrase intended to purge college basketball of many of its good, young players.

Yes, it would appear a lot of folks whose chances of being drafted in the first round are very low and whose chances of being drafted at all are far from certain have been lured into this draft on the premise that it is weak. But if there are lots and lots of pretty good players who, for one reason or another, aren't sure fire NBA material, it's going to be little better than a lottery to see who gets a chance at the very end of the first round or a much less secure chance in the second round.

[superdave]

McDermott returning to Creighton for another year (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9211520/doug-mcdermott-puts-nba-draft-return-creighton-bluejays-senior-year). Must be appealing to play for papa. Or getting hounded by Duke left a bad taste!

[dukelifer]

McDermott returning to Creighton for another year (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9211520/doug-mcdermott-puts-nba-draft-return-creighton-bluejays-senior-year). Must be appealing to play for papa. Or getting hounded by Duke left a bad taste!

Or having a chance to make some more noise in the NCAA tourney. He is a good college player. Not sure his game will translate well to the pros.

[superdave]

Chad Ford @chadfordinsider
Key players left on the undecided list include: Shane Larkin, Isaiah Austin, Adreian Payne, Ray McCallum, Andre Roberson. Deadline 4/28

[dukedoc]

Per Jeff Goodman - Larkin gone. LINK (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22144038/miamis-shane-larkin-to-enter-nba-draft)

[JasonEvans]

Chad Ford @chadfordinsider
Key players left on the undecided list include: Shane Larkin, Isaiah Austin, Adreian Payne, Ray McCallum, Andre Roberson. Deadline 4/28

Payne is the only decision left that would have a meaningful impact on the top of the college basketball world next season. If he is back, MSU is top 5 nationally. If not, they are merely top 15-20, I think. Russdiculous puts Ville back into the title conversation too.

-Jason "I think Larkin is about to start a very solid pro career" Evans

[Mabdul Doobakus]

This was the clear smart move for Shane Larkin, so I hope Canes fans won't criticize the move too harshly. The Canes are probably going to be pretty bad next year, and it may have negatively affected Larkin's stock. This is also widely felt to be a weak draft. I have no idea where he's being projected, but a late lottery selection wouldn't surprise me, though probably more mid to late first round.

[CDu]

This was the clear smart move for Shane Larkin, so I hope Canes fans won't criticize the move too harshly. The Canes are probably going to be pretty bad next year, and it may have negatively affected Larkin's stock. This is also widely felt to be a weak draft. I have no idea where he's being projected, but a late lottery selection wouldn't surprise me, though probably more mid to late first round.

It was absolutely the time for Larkin to go. His stock will not likely be higher. Had he stayed, he'd have been a 6'0" PG with no proven options around him. Defenses could focus entirely on him. And he wouldn't get the benefit of the "he's the leader of the best team in the ACC" argument in his favor.

If he is indeed going, then from a draft stock perspective he's making correct decision.

And if he's going, Miami is going to be TERRIBLE next year. Like, possibly worse than Va Tech.

[BD80]

Adreian Payne returning to MSU, puts them in the top 5/10.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22160546/baylors-austin-and-michigan-states-payne-both-returning-to-school

[brevity]

2013 NBA Draft declaree Alex Len has surgery on left ankle, and is out 4-6 months.

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9239845/alex-len-miss-all-pre-draft-workouts-surgery

I'm on record as being critical of the dogpile of commentary that this is a weak draft, but if your team has a lottery pick and is looking for a healthy center, well...