Potential big-man grad transfer options?

[CDu]

So I must give credit to one "blueequalslife23" on the Devils' Den board for collecting this information, but the following players are big men redshirt juniors who played for major conference teams and could potentially be options for a grad transfer next season. Note: I'm not sure whether we'd be interested given our numbers, but it's worth a discussion. Here's the list:

Daniel Miller (GT): 6'11", 260; 8.4 ppg; 6.6 rpg
Cadarian Raines (VT): 6'9", 240; 6.6 ppg; 6.4 rpg
Cory Jefferson (Bay): 6'9", 210; 12.8 ppg; 8.1 rpg
Amath M'baye (OU): 6'9", 210; 10.1 ppg; 5.2 rpg
Aaric Murray (WV): 6'10", 245; 8.8 ppg; 5.9 rpg
Stephen Van Treese (Lou): 6'9", 250: 1.8 ppg; 3.2 rpg
Garrick Sherman (ND): 6'10", 250; 7.0 ppg; 3.2 rpg
Talib Zanna (Pitt): 6'9", 230; 9.6 ppg; 6.1 rpg
Kadeem Bates (Prov): 6'10", 245; 14.8 ppg; 7.2 rpg (rumors he's looking for a new team)
Wally Judge (Rut): 6'9" 250; 7.1 ppg; 5.4 rpg
Eugene Teague (SH) 6'9", 290; 11.2 ppg; 7.2 rpg
Victor Rudd (USF) 6'9", 235; 12.3 ppg; 6.9 rpg
Jordan Morgan (UM): 6'8", 250; 4.8 ppg; 4.5 rpg
Sasa Borovnjak (PSU): 6'9", 240; 7.4 ppg; 3.6 rpg
Sandi Marcius (Pur): 6'9", 270; 3.3 ppg; 2.5 rpg
Shane Harris Tunks (CU): 6'11", 250; 1.3 ppg; 1.6 rpg
Travis Wear (UCLA): 6'10" 230; 10.9 ppg; 5.2 rpg
David Wear (UCLA): 6'10" 230; 7.1 ppg; 5.0 rpg
Dewayne Dedmon (USC): 7'0", 255; 6.7 ppg; 7.0 rpg
D.J Shelton (WSU): 6'10", 240; 6.2 ppg; 6.0 rpg
Tony Criswell (Mizz): 6'9", 240; 5.2 ppg; 4.8 rpg

Obviously most of the names on this list aren't terribly interesting. But a few (Bates, Redmon, Murray, Miller, Raines, etc) might be worth taking a look at if they were at all interested in transferring. Thoughts?

[MarkD83]

I vote for the twin big men from UCLA so they can start at the dean Dome next year

[CDu]

I vote for the twin big men from UCLA so they can start at the dean Dome next year

Unfortunately, I suspect they are a package deal. And unless we kick someone off the team, we don't have enough room for both. So "sadly" I don't think the Wear twins are a possibility.

[MCFinARL]

One thing this list doesn't tell us, of course, is whether these players are on track to graduate this year, which is the key to a transfer without sitting out.

[davekay1971]

I'll just go with what we've got, thanks.

[licc85]

I don't think Coach K has ever done a 1 year transfer . . . but looking at our roster for next year, we're a single big man injury from being a team with no one to defend the paint. I don't see most of these guys being interested in coming to Duke, honestly, but I do hope we pick up somebody out there just to have another body.

[geraldsneighbor]

Bates from Providence is intriguing. Murray at wvu has had problems at 2 schools now. I wouldn't go near him.

[miramar]

I don't think Coach K has ever done a 1 year transfer . . . but looking at our roster for next year, we're a single big man injury from being a team with no one to defend the paint. I don't see most of these guys being interested in coming to Duke, honestly, but I do hope we pick up somebody out there just to have another body.

While Coach K has never done this kind of thing, he had never recruited a 100% one and done until he went after John Wall. Of course, that was when there was no one available at the point, while we do have true center in Marshall and a solid backup in Josh.

Nevertheless, we will be so solid at the 1-4 positions that who knows if the coaches would be tempted if they felt that Marshall needed more seasoning. On the other hand, most of the players listed would not be an automatic improvement, not to mention that we are not going to poach GT and ND. Batts has particularly impressive stats, but he was suspended for 11 games for "failing to fulfill his obligations as a student-athlete" according to the Providence website, so he's not going to do a one year Master's at Duke.

I would guess that the coaches would listen if they got a call from a handful of those players. And who knows if one of them would want to play for a Hall of Fame coach, have a great chance to get to the Final Four, and walk away with a Duke degree to boot.

[Reisen]

I don't think Coach K has ever done a 1 year transfer . . . but looking at our roster for next year, we're a single big man injury from being a team with no one to defend the paint. I don't see most of these guys being interested in coming to Duke, honestly, but I do hope we pick up somebody out there just to have another body.

Wait, am I missing something?

Amile
Marshall
Alex
Rodney
Hairston
Parker

That's 6 forwards, 4 of whom are 6'8, 1 is 6'7, 1 is 6'11. 4 of them are MDAA's, and the other two barely missed it.

There are plenty of teams who play without a legitimate center, and few teams that have more than 1. Hairston, Hood, and Amile have proven they can play the 4.

Would I like for a couple of those players to be 2 inches taller, add 30 pounds of muscle, have better post games, or have gotten more minutes this year? Sure. But we've done pretty well with 6-8 defenders in the past. A certain Shane Battier comes to mind. Elton Brand is somehow listed at 6'9, but there's no way (I'm pretty sure he was 6'8). Maryland also did a lot for years with 6'8 guys playing in the post.

A few of those players probably will put on some muscle, but they're already fast and athletic. I hate losing Mason, too, but life goes on. I'm actually more concerned about losing Seth Curry than anything. Rasheed improving into an all-american over the summer could offset that, though.

[Reisen]

While Coach K has never done this kind of thing, he had never recruited a 100% one and done until he went after John Wall.

I'm not so sure. Off the top of my head:

- Kevin Love (K backed off after his father started acting crazy)
- Shaun Livingston (didn't even make it 1, but was definitely a 1 and done had he attended)
- Kris Humpries

[Cameron]

I'm not so sure. Off the top of my head:

- Kevin Love (K backed off after his father started acting crazy)
- Shaun Livingston (didn't even make it 1, but was definitely a 1 and done had he attended)
- Kris Humpries

I might argue that Luol could also be considered a pure one-and-done. Maybe it's just revisionist's history, but I never expected him to return as early as the holidays in 2003. He was simply ahead of the curve and was a significantly different animal than we had ever recruited prior to that point. Had he come back, Deng would have swept every national player of the year award in 2004-05.

[Reisen]

I might argue that Luol could also be considered a pure one-and-done. Maybe it's just revisionist's history, but I never expected him to return as early as the holidays in 2003. He was simply ahead of the curve and was a significantly different animal than we had ever recruited prior to that point. Had he come back, Deng would have swept every national player of the year award in 2004-05.

I thought of Luol, but if my memory serves me right, no one expected him to be a 1 and done while he was still in HS. Great player, certainly, but I thought there was something with him maybe wanting to be a doctor. Everyone was talking about how he was a "Duke-type" player, precisely because they expected him to stick around for a while. It's been a while though, so I could be wrong.

[UrinalCake]

Wait, am I missing something?

Great post! As I've argued over in the "expectations" thread, we can absolutely play without a true center by using a combination of big forwards. There are only so many quality seven footers in all of college ball, and very few of them are offensively polished. I think the fear that people have in not having a big guy is that we'll get matched up in the Tourney against a team that has a quality center and we'll have no way to defend against him. My response is that as long as our smaller lineup can produce, we can force our opponent to have to play our style.

Anyone who thinks we would benefit by bringing in some middling fourth-year transfer just because he's tall, and actually thinks he would get playing time over the guys we already have, is falling victim to a "grass is greener" mentality IMO. Now maybe this player could provide value in practice as someone for Marshall to go up against, I'd agree to that, but I still don't see it happening.

[53n206]

We will be tall enough, but we sure can use a good "wide" body. All our guys seem a litttle slender.

[Kedsy]

Great post! As I've argued over in the "expectations" thread, we can absolutely play without a true center by using a combination of big forwards. There are only so many quality seven footers in all of college ball, and very few of them are offensively polished. I think the fear that people have in not having a big guy is that we'll get matched up in the Tourney against a team that has a quality center and we'll have no way to defend against him. My response is that as long as our smaller lineup can produce, we can force our opponent to have to play our style.

Anyone who thinks we would benefit by bringing in some middling fourth-year transfer just because he's tall, and actually thinks he would get playing time over the guys we already have, is falling victim to a "grass is greener" mentality IMO. Now maybe this player could provide value in practice as someone for Marshall to go up against, I'd agree to that, but I still don't see it happening.

I totally agree with this post. First of all, how many centers are out there who could (a) dominate Amile/Marshall/Josh to the extent that they single-handedly beat us; (b) play on teams with personnel so good we couldn't double-team the post if they were so dominant; and (c) could stay on the floor and defend against a lineup with Amile (or even Jabari) playing the 5? And if these opposing centers are that dominant, are any of the guys on CDu's list going to stop them any better than Amile or Marshall or Josh?

Second, how many of these guys on CDu's list, having never played Duke's defensive system, would win significant playing time over Amile or Marshall or Josh? And even if they could carve out 10 or 15 minutes, how many of them would be interested in limited playing time at Duke rather than starter's minutes somewhere else?

Ultimately, I'd be very surprised if something like this happened, unless the situation was a perfect fit. And I don't see a perfect fit out there.

[WiJoe]

That *ssinine loophole needs to be closed, eliminated and abolished.

Sincerely,

Department of Redundancy Deptartment

[UrinalCake]

As a side note, if I understand correctly, in order to transfer without sitting out, a player must have completed his undergraduate degree and then begin pursuing a graduate degree in a major that his previous school does not offer. If this is correct (and please someone tell me if it is not), then has that been factored into the list that Cdu re-posted? In other words, for each of those players does Duke offer a graduate degree program that their current school does not? Just curious. And I agree that this rule is silly, it is totally exploited for basketball reasons and in practice has nothing to do with academics.

[Bluedog]

I might argue that Luol could also be considered a pure one-and-done. Maybe it's just revisionist's history, but I never expected him to return as early as the holidays in 2003. He was simply ahead of the curve and was a significantly different animal than we had ever recruited prior to that point. Had he come back, Deng would have swept every national player of the year award in 2004-05.


I thought of Luol, but if my memory serves me right, no one expected him to be a 1 and done while he was still in HS. Great player, certainly, but I thought there was something with him maybe wanting to be a doctor. Everyone was talking about how he was a "Duke-type" player, precisely because they expected him to stick around for a while. It's been a while though, so I could be wrong.

Yeah, my memory jives with Reisen. I was on campus at the time, and most didn't expect him to be a one-and-done player when he arrived as I recall (perhaps because there'd been so few at Duke by that point). By the end of the season, people thought it was a possibility he'd leave, but Luol said he'd only go if he was guaranteed a top 5 pick, so many thought he'd stay. He was close to being top 5, but didn't quite get there. Obviously, I don't begrudge his decision and he has represented Duke very well; I just don't think most fans expected him to be gone after one season like we did with Kyrie.

[Reisen]

We will be tall enough, but we sure can use a good "wide" body. All our guys seem a litttle slender.

Yup, very true. I didn't list weights, but we have a lot of 6-8 guys in the 215-220 range. Fortunately, that's close to Battier's weight, so you don't necessarily need to be built like Carlos Boozer to play inside, even at 6-8.

That said, I bet we see at least one of the afore-mentioned 6 players add 15 or 20 pounds of muscle over the offseason. Probably not Parker, for obvious reasons, but maybe one of the other guys.

[Cameron]

Yeah, my memory jives with Reisen. I was on campus at the time, and most didn't expect him to be a one-and-done player when he arrived as I recall (perhaps because there'd been so few at Duke by that point). By the end of the season, people thought it was a possibility he'd leave, but Luol said he'd only go if he was guaranteed a top 5 pick, so many thought he'd stay. He was close to being top 5, but didn't quite get there. Obviously, I don't begrudge his decision and he has represented Duke very well; I just don't think most fans expected him to be gone after one season like we did with Kyrie.

I stand corrected by the general consenus, then. Perhaps he was so good in that one season that I have just elevated him to that status. Aside from Maggette, of course, Luol really sticks out as our first major one-and-done. Maggettee was a complete shock, whereas I think by the end of the year, it was no surprise (at least to me) that Luol left.

[Troublemaker]

There's no one on that list that would make me want to forgo seeing how Amile for 25 minutes and Josh/Marshall for the other 15 works out at the center spot next season.

I'll roll with whom we've got.

[jipops]

I totally agree with this post. First of all, how many centers are out there who could (a) dominate Amile/Marshall/Josh to the extent that they single-handedly beat us; (b) play on teams with personnel so good we couldn't double-team the post if they were so dominant; and (c) could stay on the floor and defend against a lineup with Amile (or even Jabari) playing the 5? And if these opposing centers are that dominant, are any of the guys on CDu's list going to stop them any better than Amile or Marshall or Josh?

Second, how many of these guys on CDu's list, having never played Duke's defensive system, would win significant playing time over Amile or Marshall or Josh? And even if they could carve out 10 or 15 minutes, how many of them would be interested in limited playing time at Duke rather than starter's minutes somewhere else?

Ultimately, I'd be very surprised if something like this happened, unless the situation was a perfect fit. And I don't see a perfect fit out there.

I think if we ended up going after anyone on this list, it would be for practice purposes only. Unless one of these guys is Shelden Williams (and they aren't), none of them would be getting minutes on our '13-'14 roster.

[UrinalCake]

Maggette was a complete shock, whereas I think by the end of the year, it was no surprise (at least to me) that Luol left.

I remember the opposite. Maggette had an NBA physique the day he set foot on campus. Jay bilas has a great story about him in pre-draft workouts; apparently his agent told him to find an excuse to ask for a break, then to walk over to the scouts table and take off his shirt. He knew that once they saw how ripped the guy was they'd want him. I guess he stole a page out of the book from the werewolf guy from Twilight LOL

Anyways, Maggette was easily going to be a lottery pick. Plus he was pretty tight knit with Brand and Avery. With Deng, he was totally undecided up to the draft, and even afterwards he talked about how difficult a decision it had been. He really wanted to play another season for Coach K, but family pressure necessitated him making the jump. I saw an interview with him a year later, when he was in the NBA, and he STILL was thinking back and imagining what might have been at Duke had he stayed. So yeah I wouldn't have called Deng a sure-fire one and done in the vein of Wall or most of those UK guys.

[brevity]

This thread looks like a positive and productive spin on a complete overreaction to Duke's performance against the Spartan and Cardinal big men. We usually get something like this every year, but never so nicely phrased.

Is it worthy of discussion? On a fan bulletin board with no enforcement power, sure. I'm not going to suggest that this discussion be shut down. But bear in mind it cuts deeply into an age-old concern about Duke's seeming allergy to wide-bodied big men. We see it on DBR all the time in various forms: disappearing interest in a big man recruit, open scholarship talk in the hope of transfers, subtle hints that Coach Wojo be reassigned or take a head coaching job. At a certain point you get tired of it and want everyone to say what they mean.

So here's what I mean: it seems doubtful that Duke is in the market for any of these players, and I feel like this discussion is at best wishful thinking and at worst a bickering waste of time. I'm not one of those fans who says "In K We Trust," but I've made peace with his personnel choices over the years. Maybe we'd have 8 titles if we kept a pair of bruisers in the rotation at all times. Maybe we'd have zero titles. I'm not him; I don't know.

[Kedsy]

I stand corrected by the general consenus, then. Perhaps he was so good in that one season that I have just elevated him to that status. Aside from Maggette, of course, Luol really sticks out as our first major one-and-done. Maggettee was a complete shock, whereas I think by the end of the year, it was no surprise (at least to me) that Luol left.

I think by the end of the season, a lot of people thought Maggette was gone too. Remember that Chicago Tribune (I believe) article during the NCAAT that year suggesting Maggette could be the top pick in the draft?

[stillcrazie]

This thread looks like a positive and productive spin on a complete overreaction to Duke's performance against the Spartan and Cardinal big men. We usually get something like this every year, but never so nicely phrased.

Is it worthy of discussion? On a fan bulletin board with no enforcement power, sure. I'm not going to suggest that this discussion be shut down. But bear in mind it cuts deeply into an age-old concern about Duke's seeming allergy to wide-bodied big men. We see it on DBR all the time in various forms: disappearing interest in a big man recruit, open scholarship talk in the hope of transfers, subtle hints that Coach Wojo be reassigned or take a head coaching job. At a certain point you get tired of it and want everyone to say what they mean.

So here's what I mean: it seems doubtful that Duke is in the market for any of these players, and I feel like this discussion is at best wishful thinking and at worst a bickering waste of time. I'm not one of those fans who says "In K We Trust," but I've made peace with his personnel choices over the years. Maybe we'd have 8 titles if we kept a pair of bruisers in the rotation at all times. Maybe we'd have zero titles. I'm not him; I don't know.

My sense is that is is less an overreaction to the result of the tourney and more a realization that we will not have a 6'10" starter for the first time in several years...probably since MP1/Zoubek years.

[Reisen]

I think by the end of the season, a lot of people thought Maggette was gone too. Remember that Chicago Tribune (I believe) article during the NCAAT that year suggesting Maggette could be the top pick in the draft?

That was my freshman year, and I remember a lot of people on campus being surprised, if for no other reason than Maggette didn't start on that team, and averaged under 18 minutes a game (although he did score almost 11ppg in those minutes).

Also remember that Maggette was not only our first one-and-done, but one of our first players to leave early PERIOD. Everyone knew Brand was leaving, Langdon was graduating, but Maggette was really up in the air due to being overshadowed so much, and the team not winning the NC. At that time, you had to be really good to leave early, and while Maggette had a lot of physical talents, I think many felt his game was still a little raw (I remember him missing a breakaway dunk against either Michigan or Florida).

The big surprise, obviously, was Avery leaving (as a sophomore), but with what we subsequently learned about his academics, it makes sense. He had no choice.

Nowadays, Maggette fits the perfect profile of a one-and-done, and I'd venture he'd probably get drafted much higher (based off his upside).

[Cameron]

I think by the end of the season, a lot of people thought Maggette was gone too. Remember that Chicago Tribune (I believe) article during the NCAAT that year suggesting Maggette could be the top pick in the draft?

I do not recall that, but I am sure you're right. I seem to remember statements from the staff indicating they were shocked that multiple underclassmen left, and how the dynamics of the then upcoming 1999-00 season changed dramatically. I personally do not remember thinking that Corey would leave, but that's probably because I was young and naive and had never witnessed a Duke underclassman go pro before. Back then, it seemed to be a fairly unusual practice for players of any team.

[lotusland]

I totally agree with this post. First of all, how many centers are out there who could (a) dominate Amile/Marshall/Josh to the extent that they single-handedly beat us; (b) play on teams with personnel so good we couldn't double-team the post if they were so dominant; and (c) could stay on the floor and defend against a lineup with Amile (or even Jabari) playing the 5? And if these opposing centers are that dominant, are any of the guys on CDu's list going to stop them any better than Amile or Marshall or Josh?

Second, how many of these guys on CDu's list, having never played Duke's defensive system, would win significant playing time over Amile or Marshall or Josh? And even if they could carve out 10 or 15 minutes, how many of them would be interested in limited playing time at Duke rather than starter's minutes somewhere else?

Ultimately, I'd be very surprised if something like this happened, unless the situation was a perfect fit. And I don't see a perfect fit out there.

I'm not sure about next year but we just played three teams with centers capable of dominating Josh, Amile and MP3 this year. Creighton, MSU and Louisville would have absolutely crushed those 3 this year. Next year no Mason to put a body on them and no Ryan to help and block shots from the weak side. If MP3. Isn't ready next year we'll be playing gimmick help D in the post against big men of that size.

[Saratoga2]

We have gone through a period where we had three guards 6'2" or smaller, all on the floor at the same time. The trend in Duke recruiting though has been toward larger guards and also reasonable sized small forwards. In my view, coach K recognized the problem and is in the multiyear process of getting away from such small perimeter players. Will we still take a small point guard if he is a special talent, of course, but i doubt we will ever be as small on the perimeter as we have been recently.

Now, as far as big men. I doubt if there is any consideration of recruiting in a one year big man for all of the reasons given. (Learning the Duke defensive system and integrating with the team are all time consuming and not worth doing for one year). Will coach K be hot on the trail of big men to be recruited to arrive in 2014. Absolutely. Lets hope he can get Okafor and another, maybe Trey Lyles as we will be turning over Josh and possibly Jabari at the end of next season.

[bedeviled]

Learning the Duke defensive system and integrating with the team are all time consuming and not worth doing for one yearAlong those lines, I'm surprised no one is mentioning Todd Zafirovski in the threads about next year's team. He was a fair high school player, has shown tremendous character, knows the Duke system, and is listed at 6'9", 245lbs. He could be serviceable as a backup and as a body/fouls against whatever few significant big men we face.

He, or any other pick-up, would not have to replace Mason - Mason was on this year's team. The roles may very well be different next year, and the "best player" for one role might not be the best player for another role. Todd/Hairston/whoever, might be a valuable player in his own circumscribed role.

In Phase II, I was struck by Coach K's decision to play in Todd in real-game minutes (as I recall, this surprised Mason, too). Our walk-ons typically don't get rewarded as handsomely as Todd was. Figuring that K has reasons for everything he does, I considered that he was anticipating this very scenario and planning for the coming year. Alas, the quality minutes proved to be an aberration. Still, I was left with the thought that Todd might be a quality asset next year.

[Cameron]

I believe Todd's eligibility is done. He joined the 2010 championship team after winter break.

Edit: He never saw any action that season as a walk-on, so I guess I am wrong and he can come back for one more year?

[Kedsy]

I'm not sure about next year but we just played three teams with centers capable of dominating Josh, Amile and MP3 this year. Creighton, MSU and Louisville would have absolutely crushed those 3 this year. Next year no Mason to put a body on them and no Ryan to help and block shots from the weak side. If MP3. Isn't ready next year we'll be playing gimmick help D in the post against big men of that size.

I think you are misunderstanding what I was trying to say. We don't have to win all five matchups to win the game. Sure, those centers would probably outperform our centers. But could they dominate to the point where they carry their team to victory? None of them were the first or even second options on their teams. How many points you think any of those guys would score against Josh/Amile/MP3? Maybe 15 or 16? I doubt any of them would get as high as 20. And that's probably not enough to offset the advantage we'd have at the other positions in most games. Plus, even without Ryan, why do you think we won't be able to get weak side help from Jabari or whoever's playing PF next season?


Along those lines, I'm surprised no one is mentioning Todd Zafirovski in the threads about next year's team. He was a fair high school player, has shown tremendous character, knows the Duke system, and is listed at 6'9", 245lbs. He could be serviceable as a backup and as a body/fouls against whatever few significant big men we face.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Todd will not play meaningful minutes unless every one of our 6'8" and above players have fouled out.

[Kedsy]

I believe Todd's eligibility is done. He joined the 2010 championship team after winter break.

Edit: He never saw any action that season as a walk-on, so I guess I am wrong and he can come back for one more year?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Todd has a year of eligibility left and plans to return. I don't think anybody expects him to play at all, outside the last minute of blowouts.

[JasonEvans]

Anyways, Maggette was easily going to be a lottery pick.

That was the conventional wisdom, especially after the Tribune article touted him as a potential #1 pick. But, when draft day finally rolled around, he went #13, the very last pick in the lottery. Duke put 4 guys into the top 14 that year - Brand #1, Langdon #11, Maggette #13, and Avery #14. 1999 was considered a very strong draft class, and it has lived up to that reputation, producing 9 different guys who would play in the All-star game and plenty of other high-quality NBA players.

-Jason "you may now return to your discussion of potential big man transfers -- a conversation that is even more speculative than draft talk" Evans

[Reisen]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Todd has a year of eligibility left and plans to return. I don't think anybody expects him to play at all, outside the last minute of blowouts.

Yup, that's why I left him off the list. He does have an extra inch of height (2 on Hairston), but with 6 guys able to play the 4/5, I don't think our issue is depth so much as it is post moves / individual defense.

I think what others have said is probably correct, that you'll see us needing to double some people in the post at times. Worked well enough against Michigan State this year.

[bedeviled]

Yup, that's why I left [Zafirovski] off the list. He does have an extra inch of height (2 on Hairston), but with 6 guys able to play the 4/5, I don't think our issue is depth so much as it is post moves / individual defense."I'm fine with the idea that he will be on the bench the whole time because other guys can handle the game - I think we can design a perfectly fine defense with the personnel we have. I was trying to address those who think we need to import an additional tall player who is willing to play a back-up role to our current players. If, by chance, we do encounter a time when Hairston isn't big enough to backup Marshall, I think it would only be for defensive needs. Todd is willing to get banged up, and his fouls are worth as much as anyone else's. I don't see any need to search for a new bench-warmer when we already have a candidate.

EDIT: looking back at my last post, I see that my words were chosen poorly - the phrase "quality asset" overstepped my thoughts. I meant someone who can provide a necessary role, but I did not necessarily mean a big-minute player.

[wilko]

To be brutally frank -
I'm not as concerned with a lack of height as I am a lack of speed.

[Kedsy]

To be brutally frank -
I'm not as concerned with a lack of height as I am a lack of speed.

Who on next year's team do you think is overly slow?

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Who on next year's team do you think is overly slow?

I think he/she is referring to the fact that Louisville ran circles around us, showing far superior speed.

[Mudge]

Who on next year's team do you think is overly slow?

Starting with big men: 1) Hairston -- do not want to depend on him for 10-15 minutes per game next year-- 5+ is more than enough.
2) Zafirovski-- probably not happening-- but not good if it does.
3) Plumlee-- he is not particularly slow-- but he is not coordinated, when at speed.

It is also possible that he is concerned about the guards, too-- there, I would be concerned that Cook has a problem staying in front of quick guards-- and with smaller, slower, less athletic big men (Hairston) or less coordinated ones, that perimeter deficiency will be made that much more glaring.

[roywhite]

Starting with big men: 1) Hairston -- do not want to depend on him for 10-15 minutes per game next year-- 5+ is more than enough.
2) Zafirovski-- probably not happening-- but not good if it does.
3) Plumlee-- he is not particularly slow-- but he is not coordinated, when at speed.

It is also possible that he is concerned about the guards, too-- there, I would be concerned that Cook has a problem staying in front of quick guards-- and with smaller, slower, less athletic big men (Hairston) or less coordinated ones, that perimeter deficiency will be made that much more glaring.

Compared to this year, I'd say the 2013-14 lineup is as fast or faster at 4 of 5 positions

Cook 2013 vs Cook 2014 -- same guy, could be more comfortable at a faster pace based on experience
Rasheed 2013 vs Rasheed 2014 -- see description for Cook above
Seth 2013 vs Rodney Hood 2014 -- edge to Hood, I believe
Kelly 2013 vs Jabari Parker 2014 -- edge to Jabari, I believe
Mason 2013 vs tag team 2014 -- edge to Mason

Bench 2013 vs 2014 -- Andre, Semi, Alex could add speed compared to this last year's reserves

[wilko]

Who on next year's team do you think is overly slow?

Overly? I have no clue what the 40 times of our roster is or will be next year.
But I we struggled with staying in front of guys. Our perimeter was seemingly hindered by this in the 2nd half of the year.

I know Seth had an injury and he fought all year. Suspect Quinn may have had an undisclosed injury as well, but outside of those examples - I cannot imagine why we had such difficulty staying in-front of guys unless its a speed/quickness issue.

At the risk of over-simplifying things - I know jumping helps with rebounds (I suspect our guys can jump but I don't know the actual measurements of this) however I have absolutely no idea what can help us stay in front of guys better, assuming they are healthy.

Once upon a time basketball was a game of skill and athletic prowess. Now in the basketbrawl era, an overly physical style of play is allowed to mask a lack of true skill. Seemingly now, the best way around physical play is to be quick enough to not let it catch you.

Let me turn the question around in case you see something I don't
How do you see us plugging up the penetration on defense and/or who do you see with the speed to not get caught either in transition or to exploit half court sets?

[nmduke2001]

Alex Kirk is a 7 foot second team all-MWC player. He is a redshirt sophmore and has informed UNM that he is considering taking summer school and graduating in August in order to transfer to another school. That school is likely UCLA but I guess any school is an option. He would be immediately eligible.

[Reisen]

Wait, why are we using this year's team's experience (of which we're losing our top 3 players) to prognosticate on the speed of next year's team? I get that Louisville was faster last night, but I'm not sure that has much to do with a totally different team we'll put together next year.

Anyone watched Parker play this season? Because on the highlights I've seen, he looks like he's plenty fast and athletic.

Along the same lines, Hood was a MDAA who looked plenty quick and athletic at Mississippi State.

Kelly played great, but I doubt many would call him particularly quick, even when healthy. Seth I think actually was quick when healthy, but was hurt.

So, to echo what RoyWhite said, I think we pretty clearly gain speed and athleticism at the 3 and 4, assuming guys are healthy (no guarantee).

Mason was an All American, so it's going to be hard to match his qualities in a 5. We probably will take a hit there when Marshall is on the floor, but Amile has a lot of potential.

[wilko]

Wait, why are we using this year's team's experience (of which we're losing our top 3 players) to prognosticate on the speed of next year's team? I get that Louisville was faster last night, but I'm not sure that has much to do with a totally different team we'll put together next year.

Its a general observation more than a specific criticism of any particular player..
I thought this thread was to get a "quick fix" for height, which some see as a real concern.
I am more concerned about general team speed.

I hope next years edition of the team is quicker than this years. If there was an equivalent "quick fix" for speed. I'd rather have that... if the option was up to me..

[Dukeface88]

Overly? I have no clue what the 40 times of our roster is or will be next year.
But I we struggled with staying in front of guys. Our perimeter was seemingly hindered by this in the 2nd half of the year.

I know Seth had an injury and he fought all year. Suspect Quinn may have had an undisclosed injury as well, but outside of those examples - I cannot imagine why we had such difficulty staying in-front of guys unless its a speed/quickness issue.

At the risk of over-simplifying things - I know jumping helps with rebounds (I suspect our guys can jump but I don't know the actual measurements of this) however I have absolutely no idea what can help us stay in front of guys better, assuming they are healthy.

Once upon a time basketball was a game of skill and athletic prowess. Now in the basketbrawl era, an overly physical style of play is allowed to mask a lack of true skill. Seemingly now, the best way around physical play is to be quick enough to not let it catch you.

Let me turn the question around in case you see something I don't
How do you see us plugging up the penetration on defense and/or who do you see with the speed to not get caught either in transition or to exploit half court sets?

Speaking generally, experience and length are two big factors as well. Experience means a player can recognize and react sooner, especially with regard to help defense. Consider for example the difference between Nolan Smith's defense as a sophmore and as a junior. He didn't get faster, but he was much quicker. Length means that there's a bigger "margin of error". It takes greater seperation before a longer player is beaten, which gives the defender more time to recover, gives other teammates more time to help, and so forth. A longer player is also better at affecting movement via hand-checking and such (I realize many people don't like that style of play, but it's a fact of life at this point).

It also matters what specific aspect of "fast" is the problem. Penetration in the half court can be helped by a big shotblocker, but that isn't espescially helpful in transition. Conversely, rebounding, reducing turnovers and making shots can help your transition D by preventing the opponent from getting into a fastbreak in the first place (see: 2010), but won't do much for dribble penetration.

As far as next year goes, I agree with Reisen that we're looking at pretty major changes on defense. Rasheed probably moving down to the 2 should be an upgrade from Seth defensively - Sheed is bigger and faster. Putting Hood at the 3 is probably an improvement against a traditional small forward, but I've not seen him enough to know whether he's fast enough to be an upgrade vs. 3 guard sets. Jabari is a bit shorter than Ryan, but faster, and who even knows how the center situation is going to work out. The only real constant from this year will be Cook at PG (with whatever benefits he has with another year of expierence.

[timmy c]

Who on next year's team do you think is overly slow?

I believe coach k has lost a step or two... Then again, he's not playing in the post. :p

[CoachJ10]

Its a general observation more than a specific criticism of any particular player..
I thought this thread was to get a "quick fix" for height, which some see as a real concern.
I am more concerned about general team speed.

I hope next years edition of the team is quicker than this years. If there was an equivalent "quick fix" for speed. I'd rather have that... if the option was up to me..

I think you need to qualify the term speed, especially if the frame of reference is Siva and Smith from last night. They were particulary effective not because they were quick...but they were quick and STRONG. That is how and why they were able to get to the hole and finish. It is a meaningful distinction in my opinion. That is the improvement that Rasheed and Quin (in particular) need to work on during the offseason. Look at what Nolan Smith did as a template for this kind of progression. He became an All-American level player when he made his body strong enough to take it to the basket with authority.

[Newton_14]

Great post! As I've argued over in the "expectations" thread, we can absolutely play without a true center by using a combination of big forwards. There are only so many quality seven footers in all of college ball, and very few of them are offensively polished. I think the fear that people have in not having a big guy is that we'll get matched up in the Tourney against a team that has a quality center and we'll have no way to defend against him. My response is that as long as our smaller lineup can produce, we can force our opponent to have to play our style.

Anyone who thinks we would benefit by bringing in some middling fourth-year transfer just because he's tall, and actually thinks he would get playing time over the guys we already have, is falling victim to a "grass is greener" mentality IMO. Now maybe this player could provide value in practice as someone for Marshall to go up against, I'd agree to that, but I still don't see it happening.

Agree 100%. There is also more than one way to "go big". Who says in times of need in games next year, K doesn't trot out an in-game lineup like:

G: Rasheed 6'4
G/F: Hood 6'8
G/F: Parker 6'8
G/F: Murphy 6'8
G/F: Amile 6'8

That particular group has ball handlers, length, shooters, rebounders and quickness, while all would have a size advantage at their position, except Amile. Press full court, and switch all screens in halfcourt defense.

Point is, K will use multiple options next season to overcome the lack of a true center when Marshall is not in the game. The above is just one example of several intriquing mixes of players K could use at times. (Note: Not meant to represent a potential starting lineup)

[Kedsy]

Agree 100%. There is also more than one way to "go big". Who says in times of need in games next year, K doesn't trot out an in-game lineup like:

G: Rasheed 6'4
G/F: Hood 6'8
G/F: Parker 6'8
G/F: Murphy 6'8
G/F: Amile 6'8

That particular group has ball handlers, length, shooters, rebounders and quickness, while all would have a size advantage at their position, except Amile. Press full court, and switch all screens in halfcourt defense.

Point is, K will use multiple options next season to overcome the lack of a true center when Marshall is not in the game. The above is just one example of several intriquing mixes of players K could use at times. (Note: Not meant to represent a potential starting lineup)

Yes, despite having a smallish PF and C, your hypothetical lineup is actually a really big college lineup. Even against a team with a big, powerful center, opposing backcourts could have trouble seeing and/or delivering the ball over that huge perimeter, which would negate the size disadvantage we'd have inside. That lineup would probably outrebound most opponents too, possibly by a significant margin, again despite having a size disadvantage at the traditional rebounding positions.

[CDu]

Its a general observation more than a specific criticism of any particular player..
I thought this thread was to get a "quick fix" for height, which some see as a real concern.
I am more concerned about general team speed.

I hope next years edition of the team is quicker than this years. If there was an equivalent "quick fix" for speed. I'd rather have that... if the option was up to me..

Right, but as has been noted, we already have the quick fix for speed. We'll be as fast at PG as last year. We'll be faster/quicker at SG (Sulaimon replacing Curry). We'll be similarly fast/quick at SF (Hood vs Sulaimon - Sulaimon's quickness edge is offset by Hood's length edge). We'll be quicker at PF (Parker is quicker than Kelly). And we'll probably be as quick or quicker at C (Hairston is as quick as Mason, Jefferson is quicker).

The lack of team quickness was definitely a problem this year. It will not be a problem next year. So we come to this question: why are you concerned about a quick fix of team speed when we'll clearly be much faster next year?

[wilko]

The lack of team quickness was definitely a problem this year. It will not be a problem next year. So we come to this question: why are you concerned about a quick fix of team speed when we'll clearly be much faster next year?

It will not BE a problem, or will not be as BIG of a problem?
I guess I just need to see it. I'm not one to just assume.

[CDu]

It will not BE a problem, or will not be as BIG of a problem?
I guess I just need to see it. I'm not one to just assume.

What do you need to see? Who do you think isn't fairly quick (for their position) among our projected starters at PG-PF?

This year, we were lacking quickness among 4 players: Curry, Mason, Kelly, and (Hairston). The 3 players that will replace those 3 are fairly quick for their position. It isn't a case of assumption. We are going to be a very quick team next year.

Will be be good defensively? I don't know. But we WILL have the quickness to be good defensively.

[lotusland]

Alex Kirk is a 7 foot second team all-MWC player. He is a redshirt sophmore and has informed UNM that he is considering taking summer school and graduating in August in order to transfer to another school. That school is likely UCLA but I guess any school is an option. He would be immediately eligible.

I think some insiders have mentioned that Duke would look and adding grad school transfer big man and I think it's a good idea if there is someone available who can help. Miller at GT definitely fits the bill from what I saw. I'm not sure if that would be considered poaching or not. Hopefully in his 3rd year at Duke MP3 will be capable of playing 20 solid minutes at a level equal to freshman-year MP1 or MP2. Josh can play 10-15 most games and we can get by with a forward for the rest. However MP3 and Josh are going to pick up fouls so we are going to see a third option for long stretches. I do not think Amile can put on enough weight in one off-season to keep a quality center away from the rim. I don't think that is the best use for him anyway. To me he had great potential as a true 4 like Jamison who uses his length and craftiness to rebound and put back shots but not banging down low on defense with a center. I think Alex or Parker may be a better option than Amile for that role.

I'm not as worried about quickness next year. Seth really struggled on his bad leg this year so Sheed will be definite improvement defensively. I don’t know if Hood is quicker than Sheed at 3 but, as others have said, his added length will give him more of a margin of error. Hopefully he will be as gifted on defense as he appears to be at scoring.

[wilko]

What do you need to see? Who do you think isn't fairly quick (for their position) among our projected starters at PG-PF?

We are going to be a very quick team next year.

Will be be good defensively? I don't know. But we WILL have the quickness to be good defensively.

The good news is we both seemingly want the same thing; an improved defense.

In my mind its not really a "who" type of question.
I havent seen any of the recruits play 1st hand. Maybe you have and thats the basis for your confident assertions. I am not nearly as confidant.

To answer your question re "what I need to see"... I guess I need to see them play a game or two together and see how the pieces fit together.

I hope you are right and that its a non issue for the coming year.
I'll need to see it to believe it.

[Matches]

Is Todd Z on scholarship now?

Because if he is, and if Dawkins comes back, and if we don't have any unexpected attrition, we do not have any available scholarships.

[MChambers]

Yes, despite having a smallish PF and C, your hypothetical lineup is actually a really big college lineup. Even against a team with a big, powerful center, opposing backcourts could have trouble seeing and/or delivering the ball over that huge perimeter, which would negate the size disadvantage we'd have inside. That lineup would probably outrebound most opponents too, possibly by a significant margin, again despite having a size disadvantage at the traditional rebounding positions.

It would be easier defending guards off screens, because we could switch on most, if not all screens.

[CDu]

Is Todd Z on scholarship now?

Because if he is, and if Dawkins comes back, and if we don't have any unexpected attrition, we do not have any available scholarships.

Zafirovski was on scholarship this year. But as a walk-on and non-recruited player, he understands that his scholarship is not guaranteed year to year. If we need a scholarship, one will be available. But if we don't add anyone (or if anyone leaves), I'd expect Todd to get a scholarship.

[GGLC]

If Hairston could rebound at all, I'd be happy plugging him in at center for 20+ minutes, despite his severe, severe offensive limitations. But he's actually one of the worst rebounders on the team in terms of rate stats.

Right now I'm just hoping that Amile is able to bulk up a little while still keeping his sneakiness around the basket.

[budwom]

This thread looks like a positive and productive spin on a complete overreaction to Duke's performance against the Spartan and Cardinal big men. We usually get something like this every year, but never so nicely phrased.

Is it worthy of discussion? On a fan bulletin board with no enforcement power, sure. I'm not going to suggest that this discussion be shut down. But bear in mind it cuts deeply into an age-old concern about Duke's seeming allergy to wide-bodied big men. We see it on DBR all the time in various forms: disappearing interest in a big man recruit, open scholarship talk in the hope of transfers, subtle hints that Coach Wojo be reassigned or take a head coaching job. At a certain point you get tired of it and want everyone to say what they mean.

So here's what I mean: it seems doubtful that Duke is in the market for any of these players, and I feel like this discussion is at best wishful thinking and at worst a bickering waste of time. I'm not one of those fans who says "In K We Trust," but I've made peace with his personnel choices over the years. Maybe we'd have 8 titles if we kept a pair of bruisers in the rotation at all times. Maybe we'd have zero titles. I'm not him; I don't know.

An overreaction thread? Possibility of shutting it down? A waste of time?
How about this nugget: K is quoted in today's N&O (and this has been known for some time) as saying they will be looking at fifth year big men to see if any can come in and help us next year...

[GGLC]

An overreaction thread? Possibility of shutting it down? A waste of time?
How about this nugget: K is quoted in today's N&O (and this has been known for some time) as saying they will be looking at fifth year big men to see if any can come in and help us next year...

Like you get newspapers up in Vermont, Buddy.

[Wander]

This thread looks like a positive and productive spin on a complete overreaction to Duke's performance against the Spartan and Cardinal big men.

That doesn't make any sense, considering that Duke's performance against the big men of MSU and Louisville was excellent. I'm not going to bother quoting the box scores, but it's pretty obvious that the problem in the Louisville game was the match-up of the guards.

The thread doesn't have anything to do with this year's performance, IMO - at this point, our roster looks like it has a glaring weak point at one spot relative to the other four, and the subject would come up even if we won the national championship.

[CDu]

An overreaction thread? Possibility of shutting it down? A waste of time?
How about this nugget: K is quoted in today's N&O (and this has been known for some time) as saying they will be looking at fifth year big men to see if any can come in and help us next year...

Technically, he isn't quoted as saying that, but rather the author suggests that "Duke will likely take a look":

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/04/01/2795026/in-2013-14-duke-blue-devils-will.html

That being said, I would be surprised if Coach K wouldn't at least consider the possibility. Simply assuming that the trio of Marshall, Jefferson, and Hairston will be enough is a risky proposition, especially with a team that is going to be so good at the other 4 spots. No reason not to at least see if we can get some more certainty at the 5 spot.

[GGLC]

While I wouldn't mind exploring the options to find a one-year stopgap in the middle, I also wouldn't want to see Amile chained to the bench as the third big-man option the way he was for most of this year. I think Amile has the potential to develop into an All-ACC player.

[wilko]

While I wouldn't mind exploring the options to find a one-year stopgap in the middle, I also wouldn't want to see Amile chained to the bench as the third big-man option the way he was for most of this year. I think Amile has the potential to develop into an All-ACC player.

If he increases his mass and strength he WILL be a monster..

[jimsumner]

Duke will not bring in a grad-student big man just to have a practice player. Any addition would have to be a clear upgrade over the three-headed Plumlee-Hairston-Jefferson option currently available.

Duke will look around. But Duke will be picky.

[budwom]

Duke will not bring in a grad-student big man just to have a practice player. Any addition would have to be a clear upgrade over the three-headed Plumlee-Hairston-Jefferson option currently available.

Duke will look around. But Duke will be picky.

Absolutely. Has to be a guy who can really play. But this has been discussed among the staff for months and has been reported on several premium sites.

It's only logical. We really really wanted to get two big men out of the last class, and we didn't get them (e.g. Lee, Randle, others). It
probably has to be considered a bit of a long shot that we'll get a quality guy at this point, but there are a few out there.

[GGLC]

Absolutely. Has to be a guy who can really play. But this has been discussed among the staff for months and has been reported on several premium sites.

It's only logical. We really really wanted to get two big men out of the last class, and we didn't get them (e.g. Lee, Randle, others). It
probably has to be considered a bit of a long shot that we'll get a quality guy at this point, but there are a few out there.

If we had Mitch McGary as our starting center next year we'd have as good a chance as anyone in a while of going undefeated. Imagine that lineup. Wow.

[budwom]

That's for sure. We've had some GREAT recruiting success the past few years, but have fanned on a whole lot of big men. At
one point it looked like we had McGary....

[jimsumner]

I'm not so sure. Off the top of my head:

- Kevin Love (K backed off after his father started acting crazy)
- Shaun Livingston (didn't even make it 1, but was definitely a 1 and done had he attended)
- Kris Humpries

Duke expected Livingston to stay two years, Deng three.

Duke backed off Humphries after he (and his father) indicated they expected him to be a one-and-done. They certainly didn't recruit him with that expectation.

Duke never got very far with Love. Or Wall, either for that matter.

Irving was considered a one-and-done when he arrived. Not necessarily when Duke started recruiting him. Barnes was actually considered less likely to stick around for a second year.

Duke absolutely knew Austin Rivers was gone after one. Never any doubt. Felt the same way about Muhammad.

[CDu]

Duke will not bring in a grad-student big man just to have a practice player. Any addition would have to be a clear upgrade over the three-headed Plumlee-Hairston-Jefferson option currently available.

Duke will look around. But Duke will be picky.

Exactly. Note as well that this statement cuts both ways. Any available grad-student transfer is going to pass on going to a place where he'd only be a practice player. If a big man is going to come to Duke, he's going to come to Duke with the understanding and/or confidence that he'll see meaningful minutes. If he doesn't have that, he'll go somewhere else.

It is certainly true that Duke will be picky in their consideration of possible transfers. It will also be true that transfers will be picky with regard to Duke. So if we get a transfer big man, you can be almost assured that that transfer will see major minutes at the 5.

Note: I'm not saying that Duke would give anyone a guarantee of playing time (Duke doesn't do that). I'm saying that, based on a hypothetical big man transfer, the quality of said hypothetical transfer player will be such that he'll almost definitely be the starting C. Presumably, that would probably limit the list to guys who were starters on major conference teams.

[CDu]

If we had Mitch McGary as our starting center next year we'd have as good a chance as anyone in a while of going undefeated. Imagine that lineup. Wow.

Just an aside, but let's not assume that McGary will be back next year. With how well he's played in the tournament and with how weak this year's draft appears to be, he may decide to make the jump.

That could become even more likely if (a) Michigan wins it all and/or (b) Burke decides to go pro.

Of course, had he gone to Duke, who knows if he'd have played enough this year to be a one-and-done. Just wanted to note that McGary could sneak out after one year anyway.

[1 24 90]

Just an aside, but let's not assume that McGary will be back next year. With how well he's played in the tournament and with how weak this year's draft appears to be, he may decide to make the jump.

That could become even more likely if (a) Michigan wins it all and/or (b) Burke decides to go pro.

Of course, had he gone to Duke, who knows if he'd have played enough this year to be a one-and-done. Just wanted to note that McGary could sneak out after one year anyway.

Along those lines, I noticed earlier today that McGary is listed as a late first round pick now on nbadraft.net and I'm not even sure he was listed a few weeks ago. Burke is listed at #7.

[buddy]

I'm sure Duke will look, and pretty sure we won't get anyone. Look, all the really good 5th year 5s are already in the NBA, or will enter the draft this year. So we are looking at "not quite ready for the NBA" type players. I would be shocked if any 5th year transfer played more than 15 minutes a game next year, and that is a stretch. I just think there is an extremely small subgroup of any extremely small population that would fit our criteria right now. I think it is fanciful to believe there is a Carlos Boozer or Shelden Williams willing to spend their 5th year at Duke. Maybe a Casey Sanders.

[Duvall]

I'm sure Duke will look, and pretty sure we won't get anyone. Look, all the really good 5th year 5s are already in the NBA, or will enter the draft this year. So we are looking at "not quite ready for the NBA" type players. I would be shocked if any 5th year transfer played more than 15 minutes a game next year, and that is a stretch. I just think there is an extremely small subgroup of any extremely small population that would fit our criteria right now. I think it is fanciful to believe there is a Carlos Boozer or Shelden Williams willing to spend their 5th year at Duke. Maybe a Casey Sanders.

To be fair, a senior Casey Sanders might be the difference between a top-10 Duke team and a national championship contender.

[FerryFor50]

To be fair, a senior Casey Sanders might be the difference between a top-10 Duke team and a national championship contender.

Does Eric Boateng have any eligibility left?

[CDu]

I'm sure Duke will look, and pretty sure we won't get anyone. Look, all the really good 5th year 5s are already in the NBA, or will enter the draft this year. So we are looking at "not quite ready for the NBA" type players. I would be shocked if any 5th year transfer played more than 15 minutes a game next year, and that is a stretch. I just think there is an extremely small subgroup of any extremely small population that would fit our criteria right now. I think it is fanciful to believe there is a Carlos Boozer or Shelden Williams willing to spend their 5th year at Duke. Maybe a Casey Sanders.

I've provided the list of possible candidates. From that list, there are maybe 3-5 guys who would be worth a look (i.e., were starters and productive on a major college team. Miller, Raines, Dedmon, Bates, Teague, Zanna, Murray, Shelton, and Rudd are the guys who averaged at least 6ppg and 6rpg while starting for a major conference team last year. That would be the absolute minimum threshold. If we want to limit to guys who averaged at least 8 and 6, then we drop Raines, Dedmon, and Shelton.

So we're talking about 6 guys in all of BCS conference basketball who would qualify as possibilities. And any of those six would play more than 15mpg for us next year. The questions are simply (a) whether they want to transfer at all, (b) whether they feel Duke is a good fit, and (c) whether Duke feels that the player is a good fit.

So yes, I tend to agree that the likelihood of adding a 5th-year guy is very low. But there are a few legitimately valuable guys out there. If they want to come to Duke, they'll play more than 15mpg for sure.

[CDu]

To be fair, a senior Casey Sanders might be the difference between a top-10 Duke team and a national championship contender.

Bingo. We are absolutely loaded at the PG through PF spots. We are absolutely a huge question mark at the C spot. A senior-year version of Casey Sanders would almost certainly be an upgrade over what we have available at C next year. And there are a few guys who would be better than Sanders who could potentially be available. I can't imagine that we'd turn away a Casey Sanders (or better), and I can't imagine that we'd play a Casey Sanders (or better) for less than 20mpg next year (if we had such a player).

[pfrduke]

So we're talking about 6 guys in all of BCS conference basketball who would qualify as possibilities. And any of those six would play more than 15mpg for us next year. The questions are simply (a) whether they want to transfer at all, (b) whether they feel Duke is a good fit, and (c) whether Duke feels that the player is a good fit.

And (d), whether Duke offers a graduate program that their current school doesn't (that the player could qualify for - e.g., someone with an English degree probably isn't getting into a Duke graduate electrical engineering program, regardless of basketball acumen).

[buddy]

As I mentioned on the "Expectations" thread, I expect next year's team to be more "athletic" than this year's, whatever that means. Without a true post presence (think Zoubek, Boozer, Williams) we will be susceptible to the half court game. But if we can get after it on defense turn people over and otherwise disrupt their game (in other words impose our will) I think we can avoid that problem. I haven't seen Parker in person, but Suliamon, Hood and Cook can get after it. This year we were hobbled with Kelly (smart, skilled, and generally underrated as a talent) and Curry (leg problems kept him from getting into the lane as much as he should have--his first step was just not what it used to be, at least consistently). I expect we will run, run, run next year. When we talk about PF, SF, SG we are talking about a static game. I am looking forward to a more dynamic game next year. Doesn't mean it will be better than this year, just different.



And I am not dissing either Ryan or Seth.

[MChambers]

Just an aside, but let's not assume that McGary will be back next year. With how well he's played in the tournament and with how weak this year's draft appears to be, he may decide to make the jump.

That could become even more likely if (a) Michigan wins it all and/or (b) Burke decides to go pro.

Of course, had he gone to Duke, who knows if he'd have played enough this year to be a one-and-done. Just wanted to note that McGary could sneak out after one year anyway.

McGary turns 21 in June, or so says Wikipedai. I turned 21 in November of my senior year. It woudn't surprise me at all if he turns pro this year.

[miramar]

And (d), whether Duke offers a graduate program that their current school doesn't (that the player could qualify for - e.g., someone with an English degree probably isn't getting into a Duke graduate electrical engineering program, regardless of basketball acumen).

Fuqua has a one-year MMS degree, which isn't all that common, and the website indicates that they have students with 40 different majors.

http://www.fuqua.duke.edu/programs/other_programs/mms_foundations_of_business/

Not to mention that the basketball team has some valuable contacts over there.

http://cole.fuqua.duke.edu/

[langdonfan]

It seems to me that some people are underestimating Marshall. We need to remember that going into the season Coach K considered him one of the top six player on this team. Much like Quinn as a freshman, Marshall missed some key time. Perhaps even more importantly, Marshall missed not just practice time, but also a number of actual games. When he did play, I was impressed with his energy, and the way played within himself. By the way, didn't we have a halfway decent player playing 40 mpg at center? ;-) Kidding aside, I think Marshall will be much improved next season. Keep in mind, Marshall wasn't sitting the bench due to lack of ability.

[Orange&BlackSheep]

As a side note, if I understand correctly, in order to transfer without sitting out, a player must have completed his undergraduate degree and then begin pursuing a graduate degree in a major that his previous school does not offer. If this is correct (and please someone tell me if it is not), then has that been factored into the list that Cdu re-posted? In other words, for each of those players does Duke offer a graduate degree program that their current school does not? Just curious. And I agree that this rule is silly, it is totally exploited for basketball reasons and in practice has nothing to do with academics.

Why a non-paid student athlete should not be allowed to go to school and play sports anywhere he or she wants escapes me. This is especially true if he or she has already graduated and wants to use a final year of eligibility continuing his or her education? We have a problem with this because of its use for basketball? Why shouldn't someone be able to experience the coaching of another program, as a for instance? Maybe someone like Tyler Thornton who wants to coach someday wants a year learning from Jim Boeheim? Why not (that's just an example and not based on anything)?

O&BS

[flyingdutchdevil]

...if Coach K didn't aggressively pursue a 5-year senior. The reason? Coach K runs his program like a business, and smart businessmen always mitigate risk as much as possible (there is a reason that Coach K is so involved with Fuqua). There isn't that much risk from positions 1-3 (we clearly know what we're getting from Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyler. Worst case scenario, we start all three if no one else pans out. Again, this is the worst case scenario, with a probability of less than 1%). We also know what Jabari is made of, and Coach K has never not started a top 5 freshman. The risk profile on the 4 is fairly low. The 5? Now that's a different story.

Our options are as follows:
-Josh Hairston: A fairly known commodity at this point, but he's not an elite rebounder (6.6 per 40 min this year) and is fairly short (listed at 6-7)
-Amile Jefferson: Right now, he's built like a 3 but plays the 4. Expecting his body to go from a 3 to a 5 in a summer is unrealistic. 3 to a 4? Definitely. There is a strong chance that Jefferson will not have the physique to play the 5 for long stretches of time.
-Marshall Plumlee: Huge, oozing with potential, but an injury set him back big. He didn't get much opportunity, and when he did, there was a lot left to be desired. He has the most upside but to his height and pedigree, but will improve to the point where we can play the 5 for 20 min next year? There is a fair amount of risk that he doesn't.

Coach K knows this. He knows that, in the worst case scenario, Hairston doesn't improve and gets outplayed, Jefferson doesn't bulk up to the level that he wants, and Plumlee still plays nervous and can't put it together. This can happen, and I guarantee Coach K knows this too. That's why a grad student makes so much sense - it's an insurance policy. We have a great opportunity to win it all next year. We have super elite talent at the 1-4 (including back-ups) and getting a 5 who can rebound and defend will be key. I want all three players to be able to start. I really think at least 1 will work excellently well next year. But, due to risk, if they don't, then what happens?

[UrinalCake]

To be fair, a senior Casey Sanders might be the difference between a top-10 Duke team and a national championship contender.

I could see Marshall by the end of the season being able to produce at the level of senior Sanders. Coming into his senior year, Sanders hadn't done much of anything either. He was skinny and had poor footwork and no hands. Something clicked when Boozer went down and he was able to step up. Optimistically, I could see Marshall doing the same. I think his physical tools are better than Sanders's were.

[Lord Ash]

They certainly have similar hands;)

I have high hopes for Marshall. Great physical tools, two brothers in the NBA, McDonalds All American, two years in the Duke system, a big who knows he is a big and plays like he is a big? Sounds fine to me!

[CDu]

They certainly have similar hands;)

I have high hopes for Marshall. Great physical tools, two brothers in the NBA, McDonalds All American, two years in the Duke system, a big who knows he is a big and plays like he is a big? Sounds fine to me!

I am certainly hopeful that Marshall finds his game this Summer and next Fall. He certainly has the raw physical tools (height, athleticism) to succeed in the post. It's a question of strength, defensive awareness, and playing under control (he was pretty spastic - kind of like a 7-foot freshman-year Lance Thomas).

The potential is certainly there to be an adequate 20+ mpg option at center next year. Whether or not he reaches that potential is very debatable. He certainly didn't look like he was ready to reach that potential this year. But a strong offseason could do wonders for him.

The good news is that I think we're in a good position to be picky with regard to grad options. At worst, we know we can challenge 30 wins with an undersized center assuming our wings are as good as advertised (see the 2008 and 2009 seasons). And we do have a potential option in house if Marshall can make the jump. So the only reason to add a grad transfer would be if that guy would clearly be an upgrade to the starting lineup (i.e., was a relatively productive starter at a major conference school, or a REALLY productive starter at a lower conference school).

[dukelifer]

And (d), whether Duke offers a graduate program that their current school doesn't (that the player could qualify for - e.g., someone with an English degree probably isn't getting into a Duke graduate electrical engineering program, regardless of basketball acumen).

Duke offers a Masters Degree in Liberal Studies

http://liberalstudies.duke.edu/admission/index.php

The Master of Arts in Liberal Studies degree program is for individuals with broad intellectual interests who have the capacity, drive and commitment to complete a graduate degree. Applicants should be open to new ideas and perspectives, and ready to learn in an interdisciplinary environment

I think this would capture all college grads.

[pfrduke]

Duke offers a Masters Degree in Liberal Studies

http://liberalstudies.duke.edu/admission/index.php

The Master of Arts in Liberal Studies degree program is for individuals with broad intellectual interests who have the capacity, drive and commitment to complete a graduate degree. Applicants should be open to new ideas and perspectives, and ready to learn in an interdisciplinary environment

I think this would capture all college grads.

Sure - but the school that the student is coming from has to not have a masters degree in liberal studies. Maybe it's a rare program, maybe not.

I probably am making too big a deal out of this. I'm sure that there's a happy marriage to be found between a transferring player and a grad program not available at the player's prior school that makes sense for all involved.

[dukelifer]

Sure - but the school that the student is coming from has to not have a masters degree in liberal studies. Maybe it's a rare program, maybe not.

I probably am making too big a deal out of this. I'm sure that there's a happy marriage to be found between a transferring player and a grad program not available at the player's prior school that makes sense for all involved.

I see. Odd that they make this requirement. There appear to be many places that have this degree. Not sure how many degrees are that unique. MMS in Fuqua is not that common in the US but would be hard for a ball player to really take.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Sure - but the school that the student is coming from has to not have a masters degree in liberal studies. Maybe it's a rare program, maybe not.

I probably am making too big a deal out of this. I'm sure that there's a happy marriage to be found between a transferring player and a grad program not available at the player's prior school that makes sense for all involved.

Fuqua's one-year MMS program makes the most sense. It's a business degree, so it really doesn't matter what the student studied before. Plus, the program is intended for students who feel like they aren't ready for the real world yet (either students who studied something different, athletes, or international students. In essence, the MMS program is made up of those three populations).

Side note: I believe Nolan Smith goes his MMS degree his senior year. Smart lad

[Kedsy]

I could see Marshall by the end of the season being able to produce at the level of senior Sanders. Coming into his senior year, Sanders hadn't done much of anything either. He was skinny and had poor footwork and no hands. Something clicked when Boozer went down and he was able to step up.

Except you seem to be describing 2001, which was Casey Sanders's sophomore season, not his senior season. Casey's senior season was 2002-03, after Boozer had already left, and Casey started 21 games.

[Gewebe14]

Duke offers a Masters Degree in Liberal Studies

http://liberalstudies.duke.edu/admission/index.php

The Master of Arts in Liberal Studies degree program is for individuals with broad intellectual interests who have the capacity, drive and commitment to complete a graduate degree. Applicants should be open to new ideas and perspectives, and ready to learn in an interdisciplinary environment

I think this would capture all college grads.

All college grads except unc atheletes - I would assume that the drive to complete an undergraduate degree would be a natural predecessor to the drive to complete a graduate degree.

[luvdahops]

Except you seem to be describing 2001, which was Casey Sanders's sophomore season, not his senior season. Casey's senior season was 2002-03, after Boozer had already left, and Casey started 21 games.

Going back a little further, I could see Marshall having a sophomore season along the lines of Erik Meek in '93 (3.5ppg, 2.9rpg in 11.6mpg) or Greg Newton in '95 (4.0ppg, 3.4rpg in 11.4mpg). Realistically, this may be the best case for him - solid backup whose minutes from game to game may be somewhat situation (i.e. foul and matchup) dependent.

[dukerev]

A program that almost no other school (particularly state schools) offer is in the Divinity School. MTS, M.Div., etc.

[superdave]

What are the odds that Coach K decides to use the length and athleticism of next year's roster to run, trap and press? I feel like I'm always arguing for this - whether it is for a reserve squad to do it for a few minutes each game or to shift to this style. But Duke will have the guys to do it if they want to. I am not sure half court basketball will be a strength for next year's team unless somehow they become exponentially better at rebounding. I vote for pressure D all over the court using the guys we do have.

[MCFinARL]

Fuqua's one-year MMS program makes the most sense. It's a business degree, so it really doesn't matter what the student studied before. Plus, the program is intended for students who feel like they aren't ready for the real world yet (either students who studied something different, athletes, or international students. In essence, the MMS program is made up of those three populations).

Side note: I believe Nolan Smith goes his MMS degree his senior year. Smart lad

I don't know, but I suspect he may have gotten an MMS certificate. This is an undergraduate certificate program that accompanies another major (sort of like an interdisciplinary minor, although it requires 7 courses to a minor's 5) and covers some of the same ground (although obviously not in as much depth) as the one-year graduate program in MMS offered at Fuqua. I don't think he could have been enrolled in the 1-year MMS program unless he had already received his undergraduate degree in 2010.

[Kedsy]

What are the odds that Coach K decides to use the length and athleticism of next year's roster to run, trap and press? I feel like I'm always arguing for this - whether it is for a reserve squad to do it for a few minutes each game or to shift to this style. But Duke will have the guys to do it if they want to. I am not sure half court basketball will be a strength for next year's team unless somehow they become exponentially better at rebounding. I vote for pressure D all over the court using the guys we do have.

That sort of pressure relies on the quickness of the guards applying disruptive pressure and at least one big man hanging back and able to stop the break if it gets by the press. Louisville is a perfect example, with Siva and Smith as disruptors and Dieng protecting the goal.

On next year's Duke team, I think either Amile or Marshall could play the back-line stopper role reasonably well, though not nearly as well as Dieng. And I think Rasheed is quick enough to be a disruptor for the press. Frankly the question is whether Quinn is quick enough to be disruptor #2. I don't know the answer to that.

[BD80]

All college grads except unc atheletes - I would assume that the drive to complete an undergraduate degree would be a natural predecessor to the drive to complete a graduate degree.

To the contrary. Any graduate program that requires students to show up and complete their own classwork would be one "unavailable" to unc players at unc.

[superdave]

That sort of pressure relies on the quickness of the guards applying disruptive pressure and at least one big man hanging back and able to stop the break if it gets by the press. Louisville is a perfect example, with Siva and Smith as disruptors and Dieng protecting the goal.

On next year's Duke team, I think either Amile or Marshall could play the back-line stopper role reasonably well, though not nearly as well as Dieng. And I think Rasheed is quick enough to be a disruptor for the press. Frankly the question is whether Quinn is quick enough to be disruptor #2. I don't know the answer to that.

I think Quinn/Rasheed can play on-ball defense for 3/4 of the court and the wings can overplay the passing lanes. That would cause the 4/5 positions - assuming Amile and Jabari - to rotate as necessary. The advantage is these two frontcourt players can effectively guard the 3-4-5 positions in an up tempo game. This would be more consistent with Coach K's style than a Louisville/Razorback style press. It's more designed to provide enough pressure to both disrupt the opponent's offense and to lure players into risky passes and playing faster than they are comfortable with, than to be 40 minutes of hell. The ideal result would be a live ball turnover.

I guess I am not expecting a full court press, but rather ball pressure and more overplay in the passing lanes. Quinn can do that, and I agree that he's unlikely to be a Siva type disruptor. But if we were to go with more risk-taking and high pressure we certainly have the wings players to make it work, and it would help spread minutes around for a deep roster.

[TruBlu]

All college grads except unc atheletes - I would assume that the drive to complete an undergraduate degree would be a natural predecessor to the drive to complete a graduate degree.

UNC athletes have drive-thru degrees.

[Bluedog]

I don't know, but I suspect he may have gotten an MMS certificate. This is an undergraduate certificate program that accompanies another major (sort of like an interdisciplinary minor, although it requires 7 courses to a minor's 5) and covers some of the same ground (although obviously not in as much depth) as the one-year graduate program in MMS offered at Fuqua. I don't think he could have been enrolled in the 1-year MMS program unless he had already received his undergraduate degree in 2010.

You are right. Nolan majored in African and African-American studies and received a certificate in Markets and Management Studies. That is MUCH different than the Master of Management Studies offered through Fuqua.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't know, but I suspect he may have gotten an MMS certificate. This is an undergraduate certificate program that accompanies another major (sort of like an interdisciplinary minor, although it requires 7 courses to a minor's 5) and covers some of the same ground (although obviously not in as much depth) as the one-year graduate program in MMS offered at Fuqua. I don't think he could have been enrolled in the 1-year MMS program unless he had already received his undergraduate degree in 2010.

I'm currently at Fuqua, and a few friends from the class above said that Nolan was frequently at Fuqua for the MMS degree (daytime and MMS students don't mix much). I could be wrong, but I believe Nolan was a grad student at Duke his senior year.

[bob blue devil]

That sort of pressure relies on the quickness of the guards applying disruptive pressure and at least one big man hanging back and able to stop the break if it gets by the press. Louisville is a perfect example, with Siva and Smith as disruptors and Dieng protecting the goal.

On next year's Duke team, I think either Amile or Marshall could play the back-line stopper role reasonably well, though not nearly as well as Dieng. And I think Rasheed is quick enough to be a disruptor for the press. Frankly the question is whether Quinn is quick enough to be disruptor #2. I don't know the answer to that.

Hmmm... Would a backcourt of sulaimon and hood be able to pull it off? Then you have Parker on an overmatched 3 and Jefferson quick and rangy for a 4 too. Okay, I'll let my pet lineup go now. Couldn't resist.

[Duke of Nashville]

UNC athletes have drive-thru degrees.

That's not true...you gotta stop.

[Merlindevildog91]

That's not true...you gotta stop.

But you can travel. In fact, they expect you to.

[Newton_14]

That sort of pressure relies on the quickness of the guards applying disruptive pressure and at least one big man hanging back and able to stop the break if it gets by the press. Louisville is a perfect example, with Siva and Smith as disruptors and Dieng protecting the goal.

On next year's Duke team, I think either Amile or Marshall could play the back-line stopper role reasonably well, though not nearly as well as Dieng. And I think Rasheed is quick enough to be a disruptor for the press. Frankly the question is whether Quinn is quick enough to be disruptor #2. I don't know the answer to that.


I think Quinn/Rasheed can play on-ball defense for 3/4 of the court and the wings can overplay the passing lanes. That would cause the 4/5 positions - assuming Amile and Jabari - to rotate as necessary. The advantage is these two frontcourt players can effectively guard the 3-4-5 positions in an up tempo game. This would be more consistent with Coach K's style than a Louisville/Razorback style press. It's more designed to provide enough pressure to both disrupt the opponent's offense and to lure players into risky passes and playing faster than they are comfortable with, than to be 40 minutes of hell. The ideal result would be a live ball turnover.

I guess I am not expecting a full court press, but rather ball pressure and more overplay in the passing lanes. Quinn can do that, and I agree that he's unlikely to be a Siva type disruptor. But if we were to go with more risk-taking and high pressure we certainly have the wings players to make it work, and it would help spread minutes around for a deep roster.

One thing to consider. In the past, when K presses fullcourt, he uses a 1-2-1-1 with either the Power Forward or Small Forward at the point of the spear. Battier was on point during his years. So, assume Jabari at the front, with Rodney and Rasheed behind him, then Quinn, then Amile/Marshall protecting the rim.

That's a darn athletic and lengthy front 3 guys making life difficult on the guards trying to advance the ball up court. Only when pressing man to man would Quinn and Rasheed be up front.

[Kedsy]

Hmmm... Would a backcourt of sulaimon and hood be able to pull it off? Then you have Parker on an overmatched 3 and Jefferson quick and rangy for a 4 too. Okay, I'll let my pet lineup go now. Couldn't resist.

Do you honestly think we'd be better off with a lineup including Amile plus Marshall or Josh but not including Quinn?

[Kedsy]

One thing to consider. In the past, when K presses fullcourt, he uses a 1-2-1-1 with either the Power Forward or Small Forward at the point of the spear. Battier was on point during his years. So, assume Jabari at the front, with Rodney and Rasheed behind him, then Quinn, then Amile/Marshall protecting the rim.

That's a darn athletic and lengthy front 3 guys making life difficult on the guards trying to advance the ball up court. Only when pressing man to man would Quinn and Rasheed be up front.

Would it be that or would it be Rasheed and Quinn being the two and Rodney behind them? I honestly don't remember who played where in past Duke presses (other than the point and the base), but to me at least it would seem more logical to have the smaller guards first and the forward behind them.

[Newton_14]

Would it be that or would it be Rasheed and Quinn being the two and Rodney behind them? I honestly don't remember who played where in past Duke presses (other than the point and the base), but to me at least it would seem more logical to have the smaller guards first and the forward behind them.

I did ponder the same thing when typing my post. I can't be sure but I believe Dunleavy and Nate were the pair behind Shane, but not 100% sure. It may be that you are right and Rasheed/Quinn would be the pair behind Jabari, and Rodney would be the "1" behind them and in front of the rim protector.

I would have to pull an old game to refresh my memory! :)

[bob blue devil]

Do you honestly think we'd be better off with a lineup including Amile plus Marshall or Josh but not including Quinn?

I won't say I've got a ton of conviction, but, yes, I do think we'd be better. Particularly defensively. We'd have size and quickness at every position, except the 5, where we'd lack quickness. Our inability to lock down guards has been a slight liability for the past 2 years. Lets hear the counter argument...

[Kedsy]

I won't say I've got a ton of conviction, but, yes, I do think we'd be better. Particularly defensively. We'd have size and quickness at every position, except the 5, where we'd lack quickness. Our inability to lock down guards has been a slight liability for the past 2 years. Lets hear the counter argument...

The counter-argument is you need a top point guard to compete at a high level in college ball (and really, in any basketball).

People in the next year threads have been comparing next year's team to the 2007-08 and 2008-09 teams because we played without a true center in those years, and while both of those teams were pretty successful, one of the main reasons they didn't have quite as much success as many here would have liked is because they also played without a top-level PG.

Put another way, if our predominant lineup was Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari, Amile, Marshall/Josh, as you suggest, our offense would be mostly one-on-one and jump shots. It would be prone to droughts when our shots aren't falling. Our defense might be a little better, but it also might not because we have no reason to believe Marshall or Josh would defend the center position any better than Quinn could defend the PG position, and I don't think Rasheed, Rodney, and Jabari would be any worse defending the 2, 3, 4 than they would defending the 1, 2, 3.

But the biggest counter-argument is I don't think there's any legitimate chance that Coach K would exile Quinn Cook to the bench and play a significant part of the game without a point guard while both Quinn and Tyler sit and watch.

[sagegrouse]

I won't say I've got a ton of conviction, but, yes, I do think we'd be better. Particularly defensively. We'd have size and quickness at every position, except the 5, where we'd lack quickness. Our inability to lock down guards has been a slight liability for the past 2 years. Lets hear the counter argument...

(1) Well, college basketball is a guard's game, and (2) IMHO (where the H is silent) K is more likely to start four guards than four forwards.

sage

[Newton_14]

I won't say I've got a ton of conviction, but, yes, I do think we'd be better. Particularly defensively. We'd have size and quickness at every position, except the 5, where we'd lack quickness. Our inability to lock down guards has been a slight liability for the past 2 years. Lets hear the counter argument...


While Quinn needs more development and maturity, he is a high level PG and this team needs him in order to achieve greatness. He has a gear no one else on the team has. I thought overall, considering all factors, (experience, health, Kelly injury, etc), he had a good year. I expect next year he improves in all areas including on ball defense. He defended well in spurts, especially from start of year to mid-ACC season, often drawing a 5 second call somewhere in the game.

I am not going to judge him based on two regional games against more experienced guards.

Over the offseason he will get stronger, more mature, and will improve his game. Not uncommon to past great PG's at Duke, Hurley in particular. Not every top flight college PG walked in the door great from day 1 like Kyrie. Some took a year or two to develop into greatness. Quinn is in that latter category. I think next year's supporting cast suits him better as well. I think he shines next season.

[Greg_Newton]

One thing to consider. In the past, when K presses fullcourt, he uses a 1-2-1-1 with either the Power Forward or Small Forward at the point of the spear. Battier was on point during his years. So, assume Jabari at the front, with Rodney and Rasheed behind him, then Quinn, then Amile/Marshall protecting the rim.

That's a darn athletic and lengthy front 3 guys making life difficult on the guards trying to advance the ball up court. Only when pressing man to man would Quinn and Rasheed be up front.

Good point, although Amile seems like the natural fit for the top of the press to me. Plus, Jabari is a really underrated shotblocker, so he would work nicely in the rear.

I would absolutely love to see something like this, but of course, I don't hold out a lot of hope for anything more than an extended man press at times.

[bob blue devil]

The counter-argument is you need a top point guard to compete at a high level in college ball (and really, in any basketball).


I agree 100%. This is why I think it makes sense to worry less about rigidly dropping players into position buckets and instead focus on getting the best player possible playing point guard. We've got a history of moving "shooting guards" over to "point guard". Seth Curry last year didn't work (but, note, we did have two "point guards" on the team when we tried the experiment). Nolan and Scheyer also got moved to "point guard" (more out of necessity) and filled the role beautifully.



Put another way, if our predominant lineup was Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari, Amile, Marshall/Josh, as you suggest, our offense would be mostly one-on-one and jump shots.


This is a relatively bold assumption. I didn't see a ton this year to suggest our offense was dysfunctional when Quinn left the floor. What specifically does Quinn do on offense that Rasheed couldn't (I'm asking that honestly, not with feet dug in)? Quinn seems to be solid feeding the post... but that's not as relevant to next year's team. Rasheed is better breaking down a defender and creating help situations.



Our defense might be a little better, but it also might not because we have no reason to believe Marshall or Josh would defend the center position any better than Quinn could defend the PG position, and I don't think Rasheed, Rodney, and Jabari would be any worse defending the 2, 3, 4 than they would defending the 1, 2, 3.


Let me toss out the idea that defending perimeter players is more important than defending post players. With a long, athletic back court, we'd make it hard for opponents to feed the post in scoring position, among other things. Also, perimeter players simply have the ball more often. So, if the trade is improve our perimeter defense at the expense of our post defense, I'll take it.



But the biggest counter-argument is I don't think there's any legitimate chance that Coach K would exile Quinn Cook to the bench and play a significant part of the game without a point guard while both Quinn and Tyler sit and watch.

Despite the fact that may be true, I don't think it is a counter-argument, per se.



While Quinn needs more development and maturity, he is a high level PG and this team needs him in order to achieve greatness. He has a gear no one else on the team has. I thought overall, considering all factors, (experience, health, Kelly injury, etc), he had a good year. I expect next year he improves in all areas including on ball defense. He defended well in spurts, especially from start of year to mid-ACC season, often drawing a 5 second call somewhere in the game.

I am not going to judge him based on two regional games against more experienced guards.

Over the offseason he will get stronger, more mature, and will improve his game. Not uncommon to past great PG's at Duke, Hurley in particular. Not every top flight college PG walked in the door great from day 1 like Kyrie. Some took a year or two to develop into greatness. Quinn is in that latter category. I think next year's supporting cast suits him better as well. I think he shines next season.


Thanks, Newton. I agree - plan A is Quinn evolves from a high level to an elite point guard. Sometimes guys make big strides in the off-season (which Quinn did between freshman and sophomore years) and sometimes they don't. Heck, it can happen during the season as well, which would make the argument for sticking with Quinn stronger. All of that said, I'm still intrigued by the potential of a big, athletic back-court vs. a more traditional line-up given the make-up of next year's team. Also, given you don't play 5 guys for 40 minutes, various line-ups are not mutually exclusive.

All of that said, I'm not sure I agree with your comment that Quinn has a gear nobody else on the team has. I guess my untrained eye could be missing it, but Rasheed seems to have more gears than Quinn.

[Newton_14]

I agree 100%. This is why I think it makes sense to worry less about rigidly dropping players into position buckets and instead focus on getting the best player possible playing point guard. We've got a history of moving "shooting guards" over to "point guard". Seth Curry last year didn't work (but, note, we did have two "point guards" on the team when we tried the experiment). Nolan and Scheyer also got moved to "point guard" (more out of necessity) and filled the role beautifully.



This is a relatively bold assumption. I didn't see a ton this year to suggest our offense was dysfunctional when Quinn left the floor. What specifically does Quinn do on offense that Rasheed couldn't (I'm asking that honestly, not with feet dug in)? Quinn seems to be solid feeding the post... but that's not as relevant to next year's team. Rasheed is better breaking down a defender and creating help situations.



Let me toss out the idea that defending perimeter players is more important than defending post players. With a long, athletic back court, we'd make it hard for opponents to feed the post in scoring position, among other things. Also, perimeter players simply have the ball more often. So, if the trade is improve our perimeter defense at the expense of our post defense, I'll take it.



Despite the fact that may be true, I don't think it is a counter-argument, per se.



Thanks, Newton. I agree - plan A is Quinn evolves from a high level to an elite point guard. Sometimes guys make big strides in the off-season (which Quinn did between freshman and sophomore years) and sometimes they don't. Heck, it can happen during the season as well, which would make the argument for sticking with Quinn stronger. All of that said, I'm still intrigued by the potential of a big, athletic back-court vs. a more traditional line-up given the make-up of next year's team. Also, given you don't play 5 guys for 40 minutes, various line-ups are not mutually exclusive.

All of that said, I'm not sure I agree with your comment that Quinn has a gear nobody else on the team has. I guess my untrained eye could be missing it, but Rasheed seems to have more gears than Quinn.

Rasheed indeed has another gear or two we have not seen, just different than what Quinn brings. With that comment, I am speaking directly about ability to push the ball upcourt navigating through the defense with the ball on a string like a yo-yo, as well as ability to break down the defense and get to the rim in end of shot clock situations. Quinn can tend to get careless sometimes in the half-court with his handle but that is a mental thing not a skill thing. Rasheed has a good handle but not a great handle like Quinn. I have no doubt Rasheed could play the point, but his ceiling at PG is a couple of floors below Quinn.

As the two continue to grow and develop, they will make for a wicked backcourt.

[Kedsy]

I agree 100%. This is why I think it makes sense to worry less about rigidly dropping players into position buckets and instead focus on getting the best player possible playing point guard. We've got a history of moving "shooting guards" over to "point guard". Seth Curry last year didn't work (but, note, we did have two "point guards" on the team when we tried the experiment). Nolan and Scheyer also got moved to "point guard" (more out of necessity) and filled the role beautifully.

First of all, I don't agree that we had two point guards when we moved Seth to PG in 2011-12. Quinn clearly wasn't ready to be a starter (especially defensively), and Tyler plays much better as an off-guard than when running the offense. We tried Seth at PG because he was our best apparent option there. Your other examples of moving a SG over to PG (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith) were both clearly made of necessity and to that extent aren't really relevant here.

But I do actually agree with you that Rasheed could eventually be a pretty good PG. To me, he's sort of the men's team version of Alexis Jones, who filled in very well when Chelsea Gray got hurt and she may well be the PG on a Final Four team her junior and senior years. But next year, when Chelsea comes back, Alexis is going to move back off the ball. As she should.

So I wouldn't be uncomfortable at all if Rasheed played PG when Quinn's off the floor, although I suspect Tyler would get first crack at it. Like you, I'm intrigued by the idea of having so much size at every position. However, if for some reason Quinn misses significant time, I suspect we'd add another wing player for him (probably Tyler or Andre, possibly Alex or even Matt) before we'd move Marshall in and slide Amile and Jabari down.


This is a relatively bold assumption. I didn't see a ton this year to suggest our offense was dysfunctional when Quinn left the floor. What specifically does Quinn do on offense that Rasheed couldn't (I'm asking that honestly, not with feet dug in)? Quinn seems to be solid feeding the post... but that's not as relevant to next year's team. Rasheed is better breaking down a defender and creating help situations.

I might say "less functional," rather than "dysfunctional," but I thought our offense looked pretty stagnant when Quinn sat. Mostly one on one play and jump shots. I even thought our offense looked less functional when Quinn tried to be a scorer rather than a distributor.

Rasheed showed this past season that he's a good slasher and a pretty good passer. But Quinn appeared much better at running the offense when he had the ball than Rasheed did. I recognize Rasheed wasn't really supposed to be running the offense and he'll undoubtedly improve in that aspect, but that's what I think Quinn brings that Rasheed really doesn't at this time.


Let me toss out the idea that defending perimeter players is more important than defending post players. With a long, athletic back court, we'd make it hard for opponents to feed the post in scoring position, among other things. Also, perimeter players simply have the ball more often. So, if the trade is improve our perimeter defense at the expense of our post defense, I'll take it.

I think you're selling Quinn's defense a bit short or, put another way, I don't think we're giving so much away on defense when Quinn's in the game as you seem to.

[Greg_Newton]

And of course, we're not really talking about Quinn vs. Sheed here, we're talking about Quinn vs. Marshall. I think it's pretty clear who is the better player at this point.

I do agree that it's nice to have size and it could be fun to try at points, and that it could provide certain advantages even with the talent dropoff of Quinn to Marshall. However, I think you may be overselling our quickness a bit; I very much doubt Jabari and Hood would have a quickness advantage against 2s and 3s, respectively. It would really only make sense if we were playing a compact, 2010-style defense, it would probably call for a more traditional offense in the other end and a slower pace.

Basically, I think it would be a fine lineup if we didn't have another PG, but doubt it would be worth switching our style of play and sitting (in my opinion) one of the best PGs in the country in favor of a big man who may well make a jump in the offseason, but as of yet, has shown no signs of being ready for regular minutes.

[wilko]

Here's the list:

Daniel Miller (GT): 6'11", 260; 8.4 ppg; 6.6 rpg
Cadarian Raines (VT): 6'9", 240; 6.6 ppg; 6.4 rpg
Cory Jefferson (Bay): 6'9", 210; 12.8 ppg; 8.1 rpg
Amath M'baye (OU): 6'9", 210; 10.1 ppg; 5.2 rpg
Aaric Murray (WV): 6'10", 245; 8.8 ppg; 5.9 rpg
Stephen Van Treese (Lou): 6'9", 250: 1.8 ppg; 3.2 rpg
Garrick Sherman (ND): 6'10", 250; 7.0 ppg; 3.2 rpg
Talib Zanna (Pitt): 6'9", 230; 9.6 ppg; 6.1 rpg
Kadeem Bates (Prov): 6'10", 245; 14.8 ppg; 7.2 rpg (rumors he's looking for a new team)
Wally Judge (Rut): 6'9" 250; 7.1 ppg; 5.4 rpg
Eugene Teague (SH) 6'9", 290; 11.2 ppg; 7.2 rpg
Victor Rudd (USF) 6'9", 235; 12.3 ppg; 6.9 rpg
Jordan Morgan (UM): 6'8", 250; 4.8 ppg; 4.5 rpg
Sasa Borovnjak (PSU): 6'9", 240; 7.4 ppg; 3.6 rpg
Sandi Marcius (Pur): 6'9", 270; 3.3 ppg; 2.5 rpg
Shane Harris Tunks (CU): 6'11", 250; 1.3 ppg; 1.6 rpg
Travis Wear (UCLA): 6'10" 230; 10.9 ppg; 5.2 rpg
David Wear (UCLA): 6'10" 230; 7.1 ppg; 5.0 rpg
Dewayne Dedmon (USC): 7'0", 255; 6.7 ppg; 7.0 rpg
D.J Shelton (WSU): 6'10", 240; 6.2 ppg; 6.0 rpg
Tony Criswell (Mizz): 6'9", 240; 5.2 ppg; 4.8 rpg

Obviously most of the names on this list aren't terribly interesting. But a few (Bates, Redmon, Murray, Miller, Raines, etc) might be worth taking a look at if they were at all interested in transferring. Thoughts?

Add Tarik Black to the list... Linky-link (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22034866/memphis-junior-tarik-black-transferring)

[CDu]

Add Tarik Black to the list... Linky-link (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22034866/memphis-junior-tarik-black-transferring)

The list only included guys who played for major conference teams. Black played for Memphis (C-USA) and thus would not qualify for this list. There are probably a number of guys at the mid-major level who would qualify if we expanded the list to all D-1 schools. But the list only included major conference teams (because we can be pretty sure that the level of competition was sufficiently high for those guys).

[wilko]

The list only included guys who played for major conference teams. Black played for Memphis (C-USA) and thus would not qualify for this list. There are probably a number of guys at the mid-major level who would qualify if we expanded the list to all D-1 schools. But the list only included major conference teams (because we can be pretty sure that the level of competition was sufficiently high for those guys).

So what you are saying is: "He's turrible - we dont want him" - got it!
thanks for the clarification.

[CDu]

So what you are saying is: "He's turrible - we dont want him" - got it!
thanks for the clarification.

Nah - just saying he doesn't fit on that list. He's certainly better than at least a few of the guys on the list, but the list was just of major conference guys (not meant to be exhaustive of all D-1 possibilities).

FYI (again, courtesy of blueequalslife23 from TDD) here is the list of mid-major options:

American East
Chris Pelcher (UNH): 6'10" 240; 9.1ppg, 6.3rpg
Brett Roseboro (UMBC): 6'10" 240; 9.9ppg, 6.3rpg

A-10
Sampson Carter (UMass): 6'8" 220; 6.4, 4.3
Halil Kanacevic (St. Joes): 6'8" 255; 8.5, 7.2
Marquise Simmons (St. Bon) 6'8" 230; 6.2, 4.9
Isiah Philmore (Xavier): 6'8" 240; 7.5, 5.0

A-Sun
Jodd Maxey (SCUS) 6'8" 200; 7.7, 5.9

Big Sky
Connor Osborne (UNCO): 6'9" 270; 6.1, 4.8

Big South
Joel Van Der Pol (Liberty): 6'10" 230; 4.5, 4.8
D.J Cunningham (UNCA): 6'10" 240; 7.6, 5.7

Big West
Davis Rozitis (Hawaii): 7'0" 240; 1.9, 2.1
Christian Standhardinger (Hawaii): 6'8" 215; 15.8, 7.9
Edgar Garibay (LBSU): 6'10" 250; 1.5, 1.8
Dan Jennings (LBSU): 6'9" 255; 8.4, 6.4

Colonial
Carl Baptiste (Del): 6'9" 245; 4.0, 4.2
Johnny Williams (GMU): 6'8" 210; 7.0, 4.1
Dinko Marshavelski (NE): 6'11" 240; 2.9, 1.2
Jerrelle Benimon (Tows): 6'8" 245; 17.1, 11.2

C-USA
Ty Armstrong (ECU): 6'8" 235; 9.3, 4.5
Yous Mbao (Marsh): 7'2" 350; .3, .9
Tarik Black (Memphis): 6'9" 265; 8.1, 4.8
Josh Davis (Tulane): 6'8" 215; 17.6, 10.7 (likely an NC State lean)
Fahro Alihodzic (UAB): 6'10" 240; 9.7, 4.5
Tristen Spurlock (UCF): 6'8" 230; 11.4, 5.8

Horizon
Bobby Capobianco (Valpo) 6'10" 200; 5.9, 4.5

IVY
Will Barrett (Princeton): 6'10" 200; 9.3, 4.7

MAAC
Davis Martens (Siena): 6'9" 225; 3.0, 2.3

Mid American
Dashonte Riley (EMU): 7'0" 235; 4.0, 6.1
Shayne Whittington (WMU) 6'10" 220: 13.2, 8.8

MEAC
Ron Spencer (UMES): 6'9" 210; 6.5, 5.5

Missouri Valley
Seth Vandeest (Drake): 6'11" 260; 9.5, 4.8

Mountain West
Mike Moser (UNLV): 6'8" 210; 7.1, 6.1 (likely headed to Washington)

Northeast:
Kristijan Krajina (MSM): 6'9" 230; 5.9, 3.5
Mike Mcfadden (RMU): 6'8" 220; 8.5, 3.5

Ohio Valley
Tyler Stone (SeMo): 6'8 230; 15.5, 7.8

Southern
Brian Okam (App St): 7'0" 245; 1.3, 2.2

Southland
Jordan Harks (CAU): 6'8" 210; 7.9, 4.2

SWAC
Javan Mitchell (Southern): 6'9" 250; 9.4, 4.9

Summit
Jordan Aaberg (NDSU): 6'9" 225; 2.5, 1.8

Sunbelt
Dragan Sekelja (FAU): 7'0" 255; 3.4, 3.8
Torin Walker (MTU): 6'11" 240; 2.4, 1.4

WCC
Kelly Olynyk (Gonzaga): 7'0" 240; 17.8, 7.3 (likely going pro)
Matt Hodgson (SMC): 6'11" 255; 2.8, 2.0

WAC
B.J West (NMSU): 6'11" 240; 1.9, 2.3
Chris Cunningham (SJSU): 6'9" 240; 10.7, 9.0
Jarred Shaw (USU): 6'10" 235;14.2, 8.4

Of this list, I'd only say Jennings, Hanacevic, Philmore, Benimon, Black, Spurlock, Whittington, Vandeest, Stone, Cunningham, and Shaw would be interesting (among the guys who aren't likely headed elsewhere already) options at the 5.

[Kedsy]

Kelly Olynyk would be nice. :p

Which brings up a point. All these guys can stay on their own teams if they want, right? Just because they're eligible for the loophole doesn't mean they're moving to a new school. To that end, looking at guys already on high major teams is kind of a pipe dream, unless the kid has already said he's planning to leave his current school. Why would Cory Jefferson, for example, want to leave Baylor when he was a starter last season?

I'd think the mid-major list would actually be the much more likely place, as well as the place where the kids might not be good enough to beat out Amile, Josh, or Marshall for the job (with a few exceptions, obviously).

[CDu]

Kelly Olynyk would be nice. :p

Which brings up a point. All these guys can stay on their own teams if they want, right? Just because they're eligible for the loophole doesn't mean they're moving to a new school. To that end, looking at guys already on high major teams is kind of a pipe dream, unless the kid has already said he's planning to leave his current school. Why would Cory Jefferson, for example, want to leave Baylor when he was a starter last season?

I'd think the mid-major list would actually be the much more likely place, as well as the place where the kids might not be good enough to beat out Amile, Josh, or Marshall for the job (with a few exceptions, obviously).

Yes, it's just a list of guys who could be eligible to jump ship. They certainly don't have to do so if they don't want to do so. So far, only three guys (Moser, Black, and Davis) have made clear their interest in transferring. It is possible that Batts (of Providence) will also do so.

It's very possible that there won't be anyone available to us that better than our current options. But there is a list of guys (probably 10-15 guys between the mid-major and major conferences combined) who I think would be upgrades over our current options. All it takes is for one of those guys to be available to us, for him interested in us, and for us to be interested in him.

Will it happen? I don't know. But I think it's worth consideration, especially since the C spot is the one question mark for next season. What is the harm in taking a look? Worst case, we add a guy who is no better than the guys we have currently, and that guy ends up not really playing much.

[jimsumner]

Yes, it's just a list of guys who could be eligible to jump ship. They certainly don't have to do so if they don't want to do so. So far, only three guys (Moser, Black, and Davis) have made clear their interest in transferring. It is possible that Batts (of Providence) will also do so.

It's very possible that there won't be anyone available to us that better than our current options. But there is a list of guys (probably 10-15 guys between the mid-major and major conferences combined) who I think would be upgrades over our current options. All it takes is for one of those guys to be available to us, for him interested in us, and for us to be interested in him.

Will it happen? I don't know. But I think it's worth consideration, especially since the C spot is the one question mark for next season. What is the harm in taking a look? Worst case, we add a guy who is no better than the guys we have currently, and that guy ends up not really playing much.

Or perhaps the worst-case scenario is bringing in someone who doesn't help all that much but retards the development of the younger big men and/or leads to a transfer from someone who feels that he was by-passed.

That's why this only makes sense if it provides a clear upgrade.

[Wander]

Or perhaps the worst-case scenario is bringing in someone who doesn't help all that much but retards the development of the younger big men and/or leads to a transfer from someone who feels that he was by-passed.


I agree. I know that Duke players aren't promised starting positions, starring roles, or minutes, and everything is a meritocracy earned in practice blah blah blah - but at the same time, part of me thinks it's sort of lame to the current guys to bring in a one-year player like this at the last minute. At least when we have such a full and talented roster where there'll be a huge battle for minutes - it'd be more understandable to me in a year like 2009-2010, when we didn't have enough scholarship players.

But I can see CDu's side of it too. I'm torn.

[CDu]

Or perhaps the worst-case scenario is bringing in someone who doesn't help all that much but retards the development of the younger big men and/or leads to a transfer from someone who feels that he was by-passed.

That's why this only makes sense if it provides a clear upgrade.

In that scenario, the only guy I could see thinking of transferring would be Jefferson, as Hairston will be a senior and Marshall has already redshirted. And in Jefferson's case, He'd be taking over at PF next year after Parker (presumably) goes pro. And he'd still be in the rotation next year as a backup PF. So I'm not sure that the transfer threat is all that huge.

That said, I agree that (if we add a guy) the new guy needs to clearly be better than our current options. And honestly, I think self-selection would necessitate that anyway (doubtful a player would transfer to Duke just to sit the bench). So if we add someone, that player is going to be an upgrade over what we have in house at C. And it's certainly possible that we don't add anyone.

[licc85]

I don't think it's even a question that we need to add at least SOMEONE. We basically have 4 guys capable of playing either post position, and that's including Jabari. None of them outside of Marshall is physically suited for playing the 5. You can throw Josh in there, but he's just not a good rebounder, and he's basically incapable of protecting the rim outside of drawing an occasional charge. (I believe the NCAA is going to look into changing the way the charge/block is officiated, too, which hurts Josh. Thanks, Jay Bilas!) Of the guys we have, I think the consensus is that Amile is the tentative favorite heading in to next season to start at center, which is fine, as long as everyone stays healthy, something that hasn't been the case for the past 3 years.

Bottom line is, you have to prepare for injuries over the course of a long season, and in this case, if one of our big guys got hurt (knock on wood), we'd be in a horrible situation. Imo, just get someone who can play, even if only for 5 minutes a game. I think next year will be one of our best chances at a national title for the next few years, and it's just better to be safe than sorry.

[Kedsy]

Imo, just get someone who can play, even if only for 5 minutes a game. I think next year will be one of our best chances at a national title for the next few years, and it's just better to be safe than sorry.

The thing is, anybody "who can play" would be unlikely to want to move to Duke for their fifth and final year and then play a mere 5 minutes a game. It's kind of a Catch 22 in that regard. A 5 mpg player won't be any better than Josh or Marshall or Amile, so why bring them in? The only way this works is if the player and Duke both think the guy's going to see at least 15 or 20 mpg, and there aren't many available players who fit that description.

[Greg_Newton]

In that scenario, the only guy I could see thinking of transferring would be Jefferson, as Hairston will be a senior and Marshall has already redshirted. And in Jefferson's case, He'd be taking over at PF next year after Parker (presumably) goes pro. And he'd still be in the rotation next year as a backup PF. So I'm not sure that the transfer threat is all that huge.

That said, I agree that (if we add a guy) the new guy needs to clearly be better than our current options. And honestly, I think self-selection would necessitate that anyway (doubtful a player would transfer to Duke just to sit the bench). So if we add someone, that player is going to be an upgrade over what we have in house at C. And it's certainly possible that we don't add anyone.

I'm also a bit wary of upsetting what seems to be terrific chemistry between the returning guys, in addition to the seemingly high-character freshmen we're bringing in.

My thinking is that we've got a roster of full of players who really seem like classic "program" guys - talented, team-first guys who have bought in and committed for the long haul, who seem to be really close and will likely comprise one of the best 3-5 teams in the country next year. Is messing with that to bring in a 22 year-old, one-and-done ringer who won't be a star anyway really worth the risk? I'm having visions of Voodoo Tatum (http://i67.photobucket.com/albums/h298/misterclean182/voodooTATUM.jpg)...

I'd rather just roll with the guys we have and adjust our strategy accordingly, personally.

[Troublemaker]

I don't think there's a single player on these lists better than Amile Jefferson.

For example, one guy getting a lot of talk among Duke fans is Tarik Black.

Last season, as a senior, Black posted these efficiency stats: 101 ORating, 10.1 OReb%, 16.0 DReb%, 3.1 BlockedShot%.

Last season, as a freshman, Amile posted these efficiency stats: 117 ORating, 12.8 OReb%, 13.8 DReb%, 3.8 BlockedShot%

There is no way I would take Tarik Black over a sophomore Amile Jefferson.

Most (all?) of the players on these lists are not former McDonald's All-Americans with Amile's talent: quickness, length, hands, touch and craftiness around the rim. Amile just needs to learn how to defensively rotate like a Duke big man, and he would have a 1-yr advantage on any of these other guys wrt that. (And yes, Duke defensive rotations are tougher to learn than most programs' because we engage the offense so far out in the halfcourt. It's Duke's signature as much as Syracuse's 2-3 zone is Cuse's signature.)

[jv001]

I don't think there's a single player on these lists better than Amile Jefferson.

For example, one guy getting a lot of talk among Duke fans is Tarik Black.

Last season, as a senior, Black posted these efficiency stats: 101 ORating, 10.1 OReb%, 16.0 DReb%, 3.1 BlockedShot%.

Last season, as a freshman, Amile posted these efficiency stats: 117 ORating, 12.8 OReb%, 13.8 DReb%, 3.8 BlockedShot%

There is no way I would take Tarik Black over a sophomore Amile Jefferson.

Most (all?) of the players on these lists are not former McDonald's All-Americans with Amile's talent: quickness, length, hands, touch and craftiness around the rim. Amile just needs to learn how to defensively rotate like a Duke big man, and he would have a 1-yr advantage on any of these other guys wrt that. (And yes, Duke defensive rotations are tougher to learn than most programs' because we engage the offense so far out in the halfcourt. It's Duke's signature as much as Syracuse's 2-3 zone is Cuse's signature.)


If getting one of the guys on the list causes Amile to transfer, I say forget it. I have more confidence in Amile than any of those guys. His upside is way too high to take a chance on that happening. My hope is Amile gains 20-25 lbs and Marshall improves enough over the summer to get about 5-8 minutes in sharing the center position with Amile. GoDuke!

[CDu]

I don't think there's a single player on these lists better than Amile Jefferson.

For example, one guy getting a lot of talk among Duke fans is Tarik Black.

Last season, as a senior, Black posted these efficiency stats: 101 ORating, 10.1 OReb%, 16.0 DReb%, 3.1 BlockedShot%.

Last season, as a freshman, Amile posted these efficiency stats: 117 ORating, 12.8 OReb%, 13.8 DReb%, 3.8 BlockedShot%

There is no way I would take Tarik Black over a sophomore Amile Jefferson.

It all depends on whether you think Jefferson can handle opposing Cs physically. Remember: Jefferson would be undersized in height (6'7"-6'8") and very undersized in weight (~195 - hopefully that goes up some but I doubt it goes up by a lot). Jefferson is absolutely more skilled than Black. But Black may still be a better option at C than Jefferson next year.

Regardless, Black is probably the ~15th best option on those lists. So saying that Jefferson is a better option than Black (which may or may not be true with regard to the C spot) is kind of irrelevant.


Most (all?) of the players on these lists are not former McDonald's All-Americans with Amile's talent: quickness, length, hands, touch and craftiness around the rim. Amile just needs to learn how to defensively rotate like a Duke big man, and he would have a 1-yr advantage on any of these other guys wrt that. (And yes, Duke defensive rotations are tougher to learn than most programs' because we engage the offense so far out in the halfcourt. It's Duke's signature as much as Syracuse's 2-3 zone is Cuse's signature.)

First, the McDonald's All-American thing is meaningless. Emeka Okafor wasn't a McDonald's All-American. Neither were Mitch McGary, Gorgui Dieng, Kelly Olynyk, Jeff Withey, Thomas Robinson, Markieff and Marcus Morris, Lonnie Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Alex Len, Reggie Johnson, Kenny Kadji, Greg Echenique, Derrick Nix, Adrien Payne, Draymond Green, Luke Harangody, and... you get the idea. Conversely, Casey Sanders, Eric Boateng, Michael Thompson, and Marshall Plumlee were McDonald's guys. It's an indicator of talent, but it's far from an exact indicator.

And again, we're talking about the C spot. Jefferson played SF and PF last year, and was rarely if ever matched up against a true big. I don't know that his McDonald's status is any indication that he's better suited to defend bigs than the guys on those lists.

[Dev11]

Jeff Goodman reports via Twitter that Duke is looking into Tarik Black. There are over 20 other schools interested, per Black's old AAU coach.

[Skitzle]

Jeff Goodman reports via Twitter that Duke is looking into Tarik Black. There are over 20 other schools interested, per Black's old AAU coach.

I believe Duke was interested in Tarik Black back before he comitted, but they didn't look very closely.

[Kedsy]

Jeff Goodman reports via Twitter that Duke is looking into Tarik Black. There are over 20 other schools interested, per Black's old AAU coach.

Interesting. Though he's definitely a big guy (listed at 6'9, 262), I don't know that he'd be so much of an upgrade over our current options. I still think Amile would have a good chance starting over him, for example.

[CDu]

Interesting. Though he's definitely a big guy (listed at 6'9, 262), I don't know that he'd be so much of an upgrade over our current options. I still think Amile would have a good chance starting over him, for example.

I sort of agree. I don't think Black is all that exciting an option. He seemed to regress this year after a promising freshman and sophomore year. And despite having the right size and athleticism, he has never averaged more than 5.0 rebounds per game. And that's in C-USA. He has more talent than he has shown in Memphis, and I don't get the sense that he gets along with the Memphis coaching staff (which might explain his lack of development - or it could be that he's just not a very hard worker).

If we got him, it's possible he could start for us. But it's also possible that he could not make an impact. Ultimately, I'd see him as no more than a ~20mpg guy, and I wouldn't see him as more than a 5-6 ppg, 5-6 rpg guy. Granted, that could provide more certainty with our center spot and take pressure off Jefferson (to play out of position) and Marshall (to make a big jump in performance/responsibility). But I don't see him as a huge difference maker.

If he could fit in personality-wise (i.e., not ruffle feathers with Jefferson) and if we can't find a better option, then I guess I'd be on board. I'd feel much more comfortable with our frontcourt with one additional proven adequate post player, as I'm really not sold on Jefferson, Plumlee, and Hairston being able to give us 40 adequate minutes per game at C. So if Black is the best available option and if we can be confident that his addition won't cause chemistry problems, then I'd be for it.

[miramar]

I sort of agree. I don't think Black is all that exciting an option. He seemed to regress this year after a promising freshman and sophomore year. And despite having the right size and athleticism, he has never averaged more than 5.0 rebounds per game. And that's in C-USA. He has more talent than he has shown in Memphis, and I don't get the sense that he gets along with the Memphis coaching staff (which might explain his lack of development - or it could be that he's just not a very hard worker).

"Black reportedly fell out of Memphis coach Josh Pastner's graces after walking out of a practice this past season."

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/04/memphis_junior_forward_tarik_b.html

[CDu]

"Black reportedly fell out of Memphis coach Josh Pastner's graces after walking out of a practice this past season."

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/04/memphis_junior_forward_tarik_b.html

Yeah, that's what I was getting at in my post. We don't know all the details and whether the walkout was the cause or the result of falling out of favor with Pastner. If it was the cause, then I'd agree that he's not Duke material. If it was the result of being at odds with the coach (and other extenuating circumstances related to the team), then it is a bit more hazy. But it's definitely something that must be considered when talking about Black.

I am quite sure that the Duke staff is aware of Black having walked out on practice. If it is indeed true that we are interested in him, I would assume that they'll inquire about that in talking with Black. I don't think we'll wind up in a situation where Duke is surprised (in a bad way) with regard to Black's character. I think Coach K is good enough at reading people to know a bad seed.

That said, I'm going to reserve judgement on this incident as I just don't have all of the information surrounding it. I don't think it's fair to assume he's not a guy of Duke character without knowing all of the facts.

[BD80]

I'm on record predicting Marshall will be at least an adequate starter a the 5, and that his contributions will equal what we could get from an available grad transfer.

The other side of the "need" issue is what will we need to defend the "5?" Amile may be slender, but he has quick leaping ability and long arms which make him a good candidate to defend in the post. Yes, he needs to work on his lower body strength (which is where true post defense is generated) but how much size/strength is needed?

Let's say jimmymike stays at unc, he is not overpowering. Amile would be a decent match-up defensively. Pitt & Md are losing their 7' centers. Who in the conference will have a significant post scoring threat that would justify the addition of another big man? If the concern is the NCAA tourney, I would suggest that by that time Marshall will be more than adequate, and that our line-up sans Marshall would create match-up issues for opponents.

I think Jabari/Amile at the 4/5 will be effective in most situations. It sounds like Jabari has the strength to hold his position down low, and they each have the athleticism to help. Considering the amount of switching we tend to do, it is not like one man is stuck defending the post on his own.

[bluedevil007]

"Black reportedly fell out of Memphis coach Josh Pastner's graces after walking out of a practice this past season."

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/04/memphis_junior_forward_tarik_b.html

I live in a suburb of Memphis and am around quite a bit of Memphis fans. I can tell you that the gist of the TB Pastner drama stems from the fact that Black quit on his teammates. Up until this year, he was not known as a malcontent and was a team captain I believe. Strictly from a player perspective, I am told he is known on Memphis boards as "ham hands." This is not a term of endearment.

Personally, I'm on the fence with this one.

[Troublemaker]

It all depends on whether you think Jefferson can handle opposing Cs physically. Remember: Jefferson would be undersized in height (6'7"-6'8") and very undersized in weight (~195 - hopefully that goes up some but I doubt it goes up by a lot). Jefferson is absolutely more skilled than Black. But Black may still be a better option at C than Jefferson next year.

Regardless, Black is probably the ~15th best option on those lists. So saying that Jefferson is a better option than Black (which may or may not be true with regard to the C spot) is kind of irrelevant.


First, the McDonald's All-American thing is meaningless. Emeka Okafor wasn't a McDonald's All-American. Neither were Mitch McGary, Gorgui Dieng, Kelly Olynyk, Jeff Withey, Thomas Robinson, Markieff and Marcus Morris, Lonnie Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Alex Len, Reggie Johnson, Kenny Kadji, Greg Echenique, Derrick Nix, Adrien Payne, Draymond Green, Luke Harangody, and... you get the idea. Conversely, Casey Sanders, Eric Boateng, Michael Thompson, and Marshall Plumlee were McDonald's guys. It's an indicator of talent, but it's far from an exact indicator.

And again, we're talking about the C spot. Jefferson played SF and PF last year, and was rarely if ever matched up against a true big. I don't know that his McDonald's status is any indication that he's better suited to defend bigs than the guys on those lists.

My main point with the McDonald's reference was to say, "Let's not forget about Amile's talent here," and I listed his many impressive talents.

Amile will be better than Black, whether they played the 3, the 4, the 5, the 6, whatever.

Just like how Murphy is a better size fit for the 3 position than Sheed but Sheed got all the minutes at the 3 this season.

Most of the big guys listed in this thread don't even come close to sniffing Amile's talent level. As you can tell, I'm very high on Amile. He'll be a good "center" for us next season despite not being an ideal size fit.

[ArtVandelay]

My main point with the McDonald's reference was to say, "Let's not forget about Amile's talent here," and I listed his many impressive talents.

Amile will be better than Black, whether they played the 3, the 4, the 5, the 6, whatever.

Just like how Murphy is a better size fit for the 3 position than Sheed but Sheed got all the minutes at the 3 this season.

Most of the big guys listed in this thread don't even come close to sniffing Amile's talent level. As you can tell, I'm very high on Amile. He'll be a good "center" for us next season despite not being an ideal size fit.

I don't disagree with you about Amile's talent. But I don't like the idea of him playing out of position at the 5. I made this point in another thread, but I worry about his development if we try to shoehorn into the 5 spot. He's not a 5 by nature, and playing that position is not playing to his strengths and, indeed, may stunt his overall growth as a player. I'm not too worried about his PT. He should get minutes as a backup at the 3/4/5 slots, depending on match-ups.

That is why I am coming around to CDu's position on this, namely that if a compelling 5th year big man option comes along, we should explore it. But it has to be a guy that can play at least 20 mpg and contribute in a meaningful way. Hard to tell if Black is that guy. Seems like maybe not.

[CDu]

I'm on record predicting Marshall will be at least an adequate starter a the 5, and that his contributions will equal what we could get from an available grad transfer.

The other side of the "need" issue is what will we need to defend the "5?" Amile may be slender, but he has quick leaping ability and long arms which make him a good candidate to defend in the post. Yes, he needs to work on his lower body strength (which is where true post defense is generated) but how much size/strength is needed?

Let's say jimmymike stays at unc, he is not overpowering. Amile would be a decent match-up defensively. Pitt & Md are losing their 7' centers. Who in the conference will have a significant post scoring threat that would justify the addition of another big man? If the concern is the NCAA tourney, I would suggest that by that time Marshall will be more than adequate, and that our line-up sans Marshall would create match-up issues for opponents.

I think Jabari/Amile at the 4/5 will be effective in most situations. It sounds like Jabari has the strength to hold his position down low, and they each have the athleticism to help. Considering the amount of switching we tend to do, it is not like one man is stuck defending the post on his own.

Of the ACC teams that will have legitimate big men, I'd include:
BC: Dennis Clippard (7'0", 250, hurt most of last year)
Clemson: no proven bigs, just projects
GT: Daniel Miller (6'11", 260, somewhat limited offensively but very strong and physical around the rim); Robert Carter (6'8", 240, very talented)
FSU: Kiel Turpin (7'0", 225); Michael Ojo (7'1", 290, an athletic project who - if he figures out the game - could be a load down low)
Maryland (assuming Len leaves for the NBA): Shaquille Cleare (6'9", 265); Charles Mitchell (6'8", 260)
Miami: no proven bigs, just projects
UNC (if they decide to play a C): Joel James (6'10", 260); Kennedy Meeks (6'8", 290)
NC State: no proven bigs
Notre Dame: no proven bigs
Pittsburgh: Talib Zanna (6'9", 230)
Syracuse: Rakeem Christmas (6'9", 242); Baye Keita (6'10", 215); DaJuan Coleman (6'9", 288)
Virginia: Mike Tobey (6'11", 227, very athletic and physical); Akil Mitchell (6'8", 230, VERY athletic and physical)
Virginia Tech: Cedarian Raines (6'9", 240, very physical post guy);
Wake Forest: Devin Thomas (6'9", 240, pretty good post scorer)

In several of the games (Clemson, Notre Dame, State, Virginia) we could certainly go small (with Parker defending the post). But GT, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake, and possibly Va Tech could kill us down low. If the projects at FSU and Miami pan out, they'd be trouble as well. But I'd assume otherwise in those cases. And if UNC decides to go big (with presumably James at C), they could be a real bear inside.

As for your idea that "Marshall should be ready by tournament time," I'm just not sold that he'll be ready at all next year. I hope I'm wrong. If I am, then we're fine with what we have. If I'm not (and if we don't add another big), then there are going to be some teams that beat us inside next year.

[A-Tex Devil]

My main point with the McDonald's reference was to say, "Let's not forget about Amile's talent here," and I listed his many impressive talents.

Amile will be better than Black, whether they played the 3, the 4, the 5, the 6, whatever.

Just like how Murphy is a better size fit for the 3 position than Sheed but Sheed got all the minutes at the 3 this season.

Most of the big guys listed in this thread don't even come close to sniffing Amile's talent level. As you can tell, I'm very high on Amile. He'll be a good "center" for us next season despite not being an ideal size fit.

I agree with this. Barring some huge surprise, I am not for someone coming in as an insurance policy if Amile gets hurt or doesn't pan out. He showed enough this past year. I want someone coming in that can provide depth and 12-18 minutes at the 4/5 as an insurance policy for Marshall. If Marshall is better than the 5th year transfer who will only be here one year, then Marshall will play. It's as simple as that. There's no one that hasn't already committed (e.g. Moser) that has me willing to make any promises of PT..... not that K does that.

[licc85]

Of the ACC teams that will have legitimate big men, I'd include:
BC: Dennis Clippard (7'0", 250, hurt most of last year)
Clemson: no proven bigs, just projects
GT: Daniel Miller (6'11", 260, somewhat limited offensively but very strong and physical around the rim); Robert Carter (6'8", 240, very talented)
FSU: Kiel Turpin (7'0", 225); Michael Ojo (7'1", 290, an athletic project who - if he figures out the game - could be a load down low)
Maryland (assuming Len leaves for the NBA): Shaquille Cleare (6'9", 265); Charles Mitchell (6'8", 260)
Miami: no proven bigs, just projects
UNC (if they decide to play a C): Joel James (6'10", 260); Kennedy Meeks (6'8", 290)
NC State: no proven bigs
Notre Dame: no proven bigs
Pittsburgh: Talib Zanna (6'9", 230)
Syracuse: Rakeem Christmas (6'9", 242); Baye Keita (6'10", 215); DaJuan Coleman (6'9", 288)
Virginia: Mike Tobey (6'11", 227, very athletic and physical); Akil Mitchell (6'8", 230, VERY athletic and physical)
Virginia Tech: Cedarian Raines (6'9", 240, very physical post guy);
Wake Forest: Devin Thomas (6'9", 240, pretty good post scorer)

In several of the games (Clemson, Notre Dame, State, Virginia) we could certainly go small (with Parker defending the post). But GT, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake, and possibly Va Tech could kill us down low. If the projects at FSU and Miami pan out, they'd be trouble as well. But I'd assume otherwise in those cases. And if UNC decides to go big (with presumably James at C), they could be a real bear inside.

As for your idea that "Marshall should be ready by tournament time," I'm just not sold that he'll be ready at all next year. I hope I'm wrong. If I am, then we're fine with what we have. If I'm not (and if we don't add another big), then there are going to be some teams that beat us inside next year.

Okay, so by my count, there are 12 guys on that list who outweigh Amile currently by 45 pounds or more. Even if Amile was capable of playing the 5, he would be taking a massive beating each and every game, while playing out of position. I don't how many of you play basketball, but defending someone who is approximately 125% your own weight (or more) really, really sucks. This is not something that I would want to put on one of my young, promising, and still developing players. I'm almost positive that this is what Coach K is thinking. Kyle Singler did this totally out of necessity I believe his sophomore year and he got the crap mercilessly beat out of him to the point where he was almost totally spent by the time the postseason rolled around. And even then, Singler was about 20 pounds heavier than Amile, and he was an absolute warrior. I'm not sure anyone else could even handle a beating like that.

I'll take a big 6'9" 250 body like Tarik Black and have him get in there and bang around a few bodies and establish a physical presence for 15 minutes a game. That's something we haven't had since the landlord was patrolling the paint. At the very least, he's 5 HARD fouls a game. He also brings an intimidation factor that none of our other big guys have. If we just go with what we have again, we're going to labeled soft and bigger teams are going to push us around down low. News flash: finesse teams don't win the NCAA tournament. Louisville's biggest strength this year was their toughness. Coach K wouldn't be trying to recruit a Tarik Black if he was totally fine with what we have.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Okay, so by my count, there are 12 guys on that list who outweigh Amile currently by 45 pounds or more. Even if Amile was capable of playing the 5, he would be taking a massive beating each and every game, while playing out of position. I don't how many of you play basketball, but defending someone who is approximately 125% your own weight (or more) really, really sucks. This is not something that I would want to put on one of my young, promising, and still developing players. I'm almost positive that this is what Coach K is thinking. Kyle Singler did this totally out of necessity I believe his sophomore year and he got the crap mercilessly beat out of him to the point where he was almost totally spent by the time the postseason rolled around. And even then, Singler was about 20 pounds heavier than Amile, and he was an absolute warrior. I'm not sure anyone else could even handle a beating like that.

I'll take a big 6'9" 250 body like Tarik Black and have him get in there and bang around a few bodies and establish a physical presence for 15 minutes a game. That's something we haven't had since the landlord was patrolling the paint. At the very least, he's 5 HARD fouls a game. He also brings an intimidation factor that none of our other big guys have. If we just go with what we have again, we're going to labeled soft and bigger teams are going to push us around down low. News flash: finesse teams don't win the NCAA tournament. Louisville's biggest strength this year was their toughness. Coach K wouldn't be trying to recruit a Tarik Black if he was totally fine with what we have.

DING DING DING!!! Completely agree with the Bolded statements. Amile, while in certain matchup situations, could be effective at the C position, would over the course of the season be beaten to a pulp by March. As far as MPIII, I don't think he's a reliable option at this point. That leaves Josh, who is undersized and underskilled, to be the 5 Man when we need to beef up against the more physical teams. Black could fill that gap at the Center position nicely when we need to bang with teams that try to bang with us. 20+ minutes and 6pts and 6 boards would be HUGE production for this team at that position next year considering the firepower at the 1-4 spots.

Further, as K as grown older/wiser, I believe he takes each year as his "last", meaning he looks to assemble the best team he can possibly have for THAT YEAR regardless of future considerations, when prudent, of course. It's "Ride or Die" mode right now, and if Black can contribute more than Marshal and Josh to winning a NC, then so-be-it.

Many of us scoffed at the notion of Duke bringing in an SEC freshman transfer last year that most never heard of, but how did that turn out? So again, if Coach K is recruiting Tarik Black, then it's because K strongly feels Black will improve the team rather quickly.

Put me down as hoping Black wears the Black and Blue next year.

[Newton_14]

I am torn on bringing in a one year rental for all the reasons documented in the thread so far. Although I am on record as saying that MP3 is not ready yet, the more I think about it, the more I realize that most of his struggles this season were on the offensive side of the ball. He was too hyper and the game was just too fast for him, which led to some really bad looking shot attempts. On defense he was not nearly as unpolished. All we really need out of the 5 spot next season is solid defense and rebounding. So maybe looking at it that way, MP3 can develop enough over the summer to play 20 minutes of solid defense, and pull down 4 or 5 rebounds a night. That would leave 20 mpg to be covered by Amile, Josh, and Jabari. It's not terribly unreasonable for that to be a good enough formula for success.

Like his brothers, Zoubek, Lance, other Duke bigs, etc, MP3 will go through the learning curve of defending without fouling and that is one thing that can only be developed in game play. So if MP3 develops enough to play those 20 mpg he will suffer through the foul trouble woes of young bigs.

After thinking on this quite a bit lately I think I prefer rolling the dice with the group we have, along with having Todd for practice. I will be neither shocked nor disappointed if we add a Tariq Black or someone else, but with the potential downside to team chemistry adding a rental could bring, I will be more at peace if we fore go that route.

K and Staff surely have all these same discussions we are having so if they choose to bring in a guy I have to believe they will be confident it will be a positive move with low risk of disrupting team chemistry or hurting the growth or ego of the bigs we have.

We will know soon I guess.

[CDu]

DING DING DING!!! Completely agree with the Bolded statements. Amile, while in certain matchup situations, could be effective at the C position, would over the course of the season be beaten to a pulp by March. As far as MPIII, I don't think he's a reliable option at this point. That leaves Josh, who is undersized and underskilled, to be the 5 Man when we need to beef up against the more physical teams. Black could fill that gap at the Center position nicely when we need to bang with teams that try to bang with us. 20+ minutes and 6pts and 6 boards would be HUGE production for this team at that position next year considering the firepower at the 1-4 spots.

Further, as K as grown older/wiser, I believe he takes each year as his "last", meaning he looks to assemble the best team he can possibly have for THAT YEAR regardless of future considerations, when prudent, of course. It's "Ride or Die" mode right now, and if Black can contribute more than Marshal and Josh to winning a NC, then so-be-it.

Many of us scoffed at the notion of Duke bringing in an SEC freshman transfer last year that most never heard of, but how did that turn out? So again, if Coach K is recruiting Tarik Black, then it's because K strongly feels Black will improve the team rather quickly.

Put me down as hoping Black wears the Black and Blue next year.

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of adding a big body for the center spot. I could see Coach K running with this rotation:

Guards: Cook, Sulaimon, Thornton
Forwards: Hood, Parker, Jefferson
Centers: ???, Marshall/Hairston

Having three 6'8" guys rotating at the SF and PF spots with a three-guard rotation of Cook, Sulaimon, and Thornton would wreak havoc defensively. And it would alleviate the concerns about Jefferson's development (as he'd be able to focus on PF/SF rather than getting worn down defending much bigger bodies). And adding that 5th-year big would take the pressure off of Marshall and Hairston at C, because neither would be expected to provide more than 10-15 mpg.

Note: this is all obviously ignoring Dawkins, who may or may not return. If Dawkins does return, he'd carve out some of those minutes at guard and forward.

And for what it's worth, I think the notion that Duke has reached out to Black (if true) suggests that Coach K is indeed concerned about the center position next year and is at least willing to explore the possibility of adding some reinforcements there.

[MarkD83]

This whole discussion also needs to be put in the context of how many players does Caoch K normally play. There have been many discussions about this and the number usually comes in around 7 or 8. So for next year the 7 or 8 are (in no particular order)

Cook
Thorton
Rasheed
Andre
Hood
Parker
Hairston
Jefferson

Do we think that Alex, Jones, Semi and Marshall will break into this top 8?
Do we think that Andre will be back?

Then we add the question is Black going to be a significant enough addition to break into the top 7 or 8?
The other option is Black is brought in and he gets a year at a graduate school the caliber of Duke and is another big that can push the other bigs in practice.

[Kedsy]

Many of us scoffed at the notion of Duke bringing in an SEC freshman transfer last year that most never heard of, but how did that turn out?

I don't know or remember anybody who scoffed at that. Not to mention that it hasn't turned out as anything yet. At this point most of us seem to believe Rodney Hood is going to be a good one, and my recollection is pretty much the same group thought it the moment we heard he was considering transferring, if not before.


Note: this is all obviously ignoring Dawkins, who may or may not return. If Dawkins does return, he'd carve out some of those minutes at guard and forward.

If he does return, and you're right about everything else, that would give us 10 guys with 10 or more mpg, something that Coach K has never done. I'm not saying you're wrong, or that Coach K would never do it, but you'd think the odds would be against it. More likely, if Andre returns and we bring in a big body transfer, that would mean at least two of Marshall/Amile/Josh wouldn't play very much, and Alex, Semi, and Matt would play essentially none at all. At this moment I'm not making any comment about whether that's good or bad, but the reality is we probably won't have a three (or three and a half) guard, three (or three and a half) forward, and three center rotation at Duke while K is coach.

[Kedsy]

The other option is Black is brought in and he gets a year at a graduate school the caliber of Duke and is another big that can push the other bigs in practice.

If 20 schools are actually calling about him, as his AAU coach says, does anyone really think he'll want to come to Duke to be a practice player? Sounds like a looooong shot to me.

[tommy]

After thinking on this quite a bit lately I think I prefer rolling the dice with the group we have, along with having Todd for practice. I will be neither shocked nor disappointed if we add a Tariq Black or someone else, but with the potential downside to team chemistry adding a rental could bring, I will be more at peace if we fore go that route.

Hate to even raise the possibility, but what about if we don't add a big, and one of our three-headed center consisting of Amile/Josh/Marshall were to suffer a significant injury? We are sitting here trying to find a way to sorta, kinda, maybe somehow see if we can maybe patch together 15 minutes from this guy and 10 minutes from that guy and hopefully we won't get hurt too bad, and maybe this guy will develop some more and maybe that guy will add some weight and hopefully this and hopefully that. What happens with a big injury to any of them? Then we're really in a precarious position.

[Kedsy]

Hate to even raise the possibility, but what about if we don't add a big, and one of our three-headed center consisting of Amile/Josh/Marshall were to suffer a significant injury?

I'm responding to you, Tom, but I'm not intending to call you out in any way. This has been building in me for awhile.

People seem to be wanting a team with absolutely no weaknesses, a team so complete that nobody we might face in the NCAAT would have any chance of exploiting us to any significant extent and certainly not of beating us. But that's not realistic. Nobody goes undefeated and there are no guarantees in the Tournament. One of the things that makes college basketball great is that all the teams have flaws, and the team that wins managed to overcome its flaws on the way to the championship.

What if our center gets hurt? Then the backup would have to play more and hopefully rise to the occasion. Same as if our PG got hurt, or our star freshman PF got hurt. Or anybody else.

If a starter-quality center falls into our laps and Coach K wants the kid, then great. Personally, I think it would be counter-productive to bring in a 13th recruited scholarship player for no real reason other than an insurance against injury.

[ncexnyc]

For a moment I thought I had stumbled into a UFC thread. What's all this talk about getting banged around? With the line-up and shear talent we have available next year why on earth would we want to get into a slugging match with another team. If another team attempts to play a rough and tumble style against us then the answer is to make them pay for it with a fast paced, pressing style, not get down in the trenches with them.

As Darth Vader once said, "I find your lack of faith most disturbing." Marshall will be fine. The kid doesn't have to be great, he has the one thing you can't teach and that's size. Coach K always molds his teams around the talent that's on hand and if Marshall has shortcomings I'm sure Coach K will find a way to structure both our offense and defense to work around Marshall's abilities.

I can also vouch for the fact that there were indeed a couple of individuals on this board who weren't interested in either Hood or Zigler. They were so concerned about landing some other kid, but I said it then and I'll say it now. A hood in the hand is worth a Bazz in the bush.

[licc85]

For a moment I thought I had stumbled into a UFC thread. What's all this talk about getting banged around? With the line-up and shear talent we have available next year why on earth would we want to get into a slugging match with another team. If another team attempts to play a rough and tumble style against us then the answer is to make them pay for it with a fast paced, pressing style, not get down in the trenches with them.

As Darth Vader once said, "I find your lack of faith most disturbing." Marshall will be fine. The kid doesn't have to be great, he has the one thing you can't teach and that's size. Coach K always molds his teams around the talent that's on hand and if Marshall has shortcomings I'm sure Coach K will find a way to structure both our offense and defense to work around Marshall's abilities.

I can also vouch for the fact that there were indeed a couple of individuals on this board who weren't interested in either Hood or Zigler. They were so concerned about landing some other kid, but I said it then and I'll say it now. A hood in the hand is worth a Bazz in the bush.

This is possibly the best argument that I've heard thus far against getting a 5th year transfer. And a Hood in the hand is probably worth more than a Bazz regardless . . . seriously, did we really need a bad shot selection ball hog freshman 1 and done who lies about his age? (Still, nice one) We definitely have the depth to press like Louisville did this year, but do we have the quickness on the perimeter? Rasheed, yes, Quinn . . . maybe. If we don't get a 5th year guy, I won't be upset, but having the option can't hurt, and if we get a 260 pound dude like Tarik Black, I think that only helps Marshall in the long term. Who's going to replicate that in practice?

[johnb]

First off, I'm very happy with us having MP3, Josh, and Amile vie for the interior minutes. They're very good players, solid young men, and may well step up to being top-line players over the next nine months.

Having said that, top 25 teams seem to rotate in guys who may or may not be as skilled as, say, Amile, but they are 6'10" and 260 (like Black). If he comes for one year, I really don't see the downside. If he "quits" on K and his teammates, he'd be the first one that I've heard of (and he'd probably just be kicked off the team). Having watched the Rutgers' tapes, it's certainly possible that the player was legitimately irritated about something without a lot of recourse. A year with our guys--even if he doesn't play much--would be good for him. And if he's good enough to average those numbers with a coach who didn't particularly like him, then it's hard to see how he wouldn't get important minutes from us next year. And, so far, our very few transfers have turned out to be starters (and NBA players?) every single time.

Having said that, I'd add that my guess is that Marshall works in the weight room and with his brothers and plays 20 excellent minutes/game next year.

[Kedsy]

A year with our guys--even if he doesn't play much--would be good for him.

He has one year left. How well you think the above argument is going to work with him? I know K doesn't promise playing time, but he's going to have to come awfully close if he wants to convince a guy like Tarik Black to come to Duke. To think otherwise is just daydreaming on our (fans') part.

[Ichabod Drain]

He has one year left. How well you think the above argument is going to work with him? I know K doesn't promise playing time, but he's going to have to come awfully close if he wants to convince a guy like Tarik Black to come to Duke. To think otherwise is just daydreaming on our (fans') part.

I agree. A lot of people have said they want to bring in a transfer just as an insurance policy. But what 5-year transfer wants to spend their last year of eligibility as an insurance policy? I'd imagine they would want to start or at least know their going to get significant minutes.

[TruBlu]

I agree. A lot of people have said they want to bring in a transfer just as an insurance policy. But what 5-year transfer wants to spend their last year of eligibility as an insurance policy? I'd imagine they would want to start or at least know their going to get significant minutes.

Um, someone who is transferring to another school because he is wanting to pursue a graduate degree that his current school doesn't offer?:rolleyes:

Yes, I am just kidding. That is the "intent" of the rule, but we all know that it is not the real world.

[dukejim1]

He has one year left. How well you think the above argument is going to work with him? I know K doesn't promise playing time, but he's going to have to come awfully close if he wants to convince a guy like Tarik Black to come to Duke. To think otherwise is just daydreaming on our (fans') part.

The more I think about this, I have to agree. Any big man with less than a clear path to significant playing time would not be best served to not come to Duke if they are looking for a path to the play for pay leagues. We need big man depth but I am doubting it is going to work out with the graduate "free agent" path. Underclassmen granted a waiver to sit out due to a coaching change or an under the radar recruit are about our only hope.

[roywhite]

The more I think about this, I have to agree. Any big man with less than a clear path to significant playing time would not be best served to not come to Duke if they are looking for a path to the play for pay leagues. We need big man depth but I am doubting it is going to work out with the graduate "free agent" path. Underclassmen granted a waiver to sit out due to a coaching change or an under the radar recruit are about our only hope.

Yeah, this is not easy matching our needs with the right player and the right situation for them, too.

On the other hand, I'm encouraged that Duke is looking for someone to fill this role; seems kind of like a baseball team picking up a bullpen guy or a pinch hitter/utility player for a pennant drive and playoff success.

Our starting lineup in positions 1 thru 4 is dyanmite and there appears to be talented depth in the wings (or should we say on the wings with Murphy, Semi, Matt Jones, Andre being in the 6'4" to 6'8" range). This last piece of a rebounder/defender down low may not be essential, but it would be nice.

I'd say Duke is a solid top 5 choice without adding another big man, and likely 1 or 2 pre-season if we grab a good role player down low.

[dukelifer]

I'm responding to you, Tom, but I'm not intending to call you out in any way. This has been building in me for awhile.

People seem to be wanting a team with absolutely no weaknesses, a team so complete that nobody we might face in the NCAAT would have any chance of exploiting us to any significant extent and certainly not of beating us. But that's not realistic. Nobody goes undefeated and there are no guarantees in the Tournament. One of the things that makes college basketball great is that all the teams have flaws, and the team that wins managed to overcome its flaws on the way to the championship.

What if our center gets hurt? Then the backup would have to play more and hopefully rise to the occasion. Same as if our PG got hurt, or our star freshman PF got hurt. Or anybody else.

If a starter-quality center falls into our laps and Coach K wants the kid, then great. Personally, I think it would be counter-productive to bring in a 13th recruited scholarship player for no real reason other than an insurance against injury.

There has to be a Dwight Howard like athlete with the skill set of Tim Duncan out there who is ready to graduate and looking to play for K for a year. That is all I am asking.

[davekay1971]

There has to be a Dwight Howard like athlete with the skill set of Tim Duncan out there who is ready to graduate and looking to play for K for a year. That is all I am asking.

Hakeen Olajuwon's secret 20 year old son has been playing beach volleyball in Asia for a few years, is now bored of dominating, has been working like a demon on his hoops game under his father's direct tutelage, scores 80 points and grabs 28 rebounds per game in the local AAU league, and has said he wants to come to Duke this year for a one year NBA audition. But it's on the down-low, so don't tell anyone.

[Frobisher]

Hakeen Olajuwon's secret 20 year old son has been playing beach volleyball in Asia for a few years, is now bored of dominating, has been working like a demon on his hoops game under his father's direct tutelage, scores 80 points and grabs 28 rebounds per game in the local AAU league, and has said he wants to come to Duke this year for a one year NBA audition. But it's on the down-low, so don't tell anyone.

The best part is; he's not even left handed.

[dukelifer]

The best part is; he's not even left handed.

I am pretty sure he is amphibious (old joke that not all on this board may get)

[CDu]

He has one year left. How well you think the above argument is going to work with him? I know K doesn't promise playing time, but he's going to have to come awfully close if he wants to convince a guy like Tarik Black to come to Duke. To think otherwise is just daydreaming on our (fans') part.

I agree that wherever Black goes he'll likely be looking for a starting role. But that's not a definite. Remember: Justin Knox transferred from Alabama (where he was around a 20mpg guy) to UNC (where he was certain to be a backup behind Zeller and Henson). So while it may not be likely that he'd come to play a reduced role, I don't know that "guaranteed starting spot" is necessarily a dealbreaker. It may be that the opportunity to get reasonable playing time on a championship-caliber team is enough.

That being said, I don't think playing time would be a big issue. There will likely be playing time to spare at the 5 spot - especially for a guy who averaged only around 23mpg during his 3 years at Memphis. I could easily see Black being a 20-25 mpg guy at Duke (averaging around 6-8 and 6) with Marshall and/or Hairston filling in the rest. I don't think Black is a world-beater by any means, but I think he can provide something that Jefferson, Marshall, and Hairston cannot.

Of course, it remains to be seen if he feels Duke is the right fit and if Duke feels that he is the right fit. But I think Duke is looking for more than a practice player/backup, so Black shouldn't be too worried about opportunity if he does come.

[Frobisher]

I am pretty sure he is amphibious (old joke that not all on this board may get)

Following a Princess Bride allusion, I think yours is actually more relevant...
Yours was also a favorite of one of my coaches at Duke, so I read ya.

[Kedsy]

I agree that wherever Black goes he'll likely be looking for a starting role. But that's not a definite. Remember: Justin Knox transferred from Alabama (where he was around a 20mpg guy) to UNC (where he was certain to be a backup behind Zeller and Henson). So while it may not be likely that he'd come to play a reduced role, I don't know that "guaranteed starting spot" is necessarily a dealbreaker. It may be that the opportunity to get reasonable playing time on a championship-caliber team is enough.

That being said, I don't think playing time would be a big issue. There will likely be playing time to spare at the 5 spot - especially for a guy who averaged only around 23mpg during his 3 years at Memphis. I could easily see Black being a 20-25 mpg guy at Duke (averaging around 6-8 and 6) with Marshall and/or Hairston filling in the rest. I don't think Black is a world-beater by any means, but I think he can provide something that Jefferson, Marshall, and Hairston cannot.

Of course, it remains to be seen if he feels Duke is the right fit and if Duke feels that he is the right fit. But I think Duke is looking for more than a practice player/backup, so Black shouldn't be too worried about opportunity if he does come.

I never said "guaranteed starting spot." But I do think Coach K would have to more or less promise playing time and an opportunity to at least challenge for a starting spot. Especially because Tarik Black (who some think could be a 2nd round draft pick this year) probably considers himself to be a much better player than Justin Knox.

In any event, the post you responded to was exploring the idea that we might bring the guy in to be a practice player and "insurance" against injury, and I'd be shocked if Tarik Black (or anybody else who could actually help us) had any interest in that.

Also, for Black to get 6 rebounds in 20 to 25 minutes would be the best rebounding rate of his career.

[CDu]

I never said "guaranteed starting spot." But I do think Coach K would have to more or less promise playing time and an opportunity to at least challenge for a starting spot. Especially because Tarik Black (who some think could be a 2nd round draft pick this year) probably considers himself to be a much better player than Justin Knox.

In any event, the post you responded to was exploring the idea that we might bring the guy in to be a practice player and "insurance" against injury, and I'd be shocked if Tarik Black (or anybody else who could actually help us) had any interest in that.

If he's good enough to be a possible second round pick, then I don't see any way he's not good enough to play significant minutes at center for Duke next year. So again, I don't think availability of playing time should be a big concern.

I agree that he isn't going to come to be a practice player or insurance against injury.


Also, for Black to get 6 rebounds in 20 to 25 minutes would be the best rebounding rate of his career.

Sure, it's better than anything he's done before. Players often get better in their senior year. Especially when that senior year involves MUCH better coaching than the player previously had (going from Pastner to Coach K is a ridiculous jump in coaching). Black has averaged 4.9rpg in 23.0mpg as a collegiate. Simply projecting that average to 25mpg would get you to 5.32rpg. Now, that doesn't account for increase in quality of play, but it also doesn't account for improvements in Black's play (both his natural ability AND gains from better coaching). So I don't think 6 rpg in 25 mpg is unreasonable. Nor do I think 6 rpg in 22.5 mpg is unreasonable.

[johnb]

If he's good enough to be a possible second round pick, then I don't see any way he's not good enough to play significant minutes at center for Duke next year.

Knowing nothing about him, I'd have to assume that Black intends to play himself comfortably into the first round and have a shot at a ten-year NBA career. If he plays within himself, adapts himself to the Duke system, and is as athletic/big as reported, then those are reasonable goals. And if he does that and splits time with an improving Plumlee (while Amile and Josh fight for time at the 4, which is more their natural position), our team could be scarily good next year. And if he goes somewhere that completely lacks an inside presence, then he's almost certainly going to a place where the coaching would be inferior, the national exposure would be less, and the likelihood that he goes to the next level is reduced. If we think he'd be an addition and that he wouldn't have a negative impact on chemistry, bring him on!

[tommy]

I'm responding to you, Tom, but I'm not intending to call you out in any way. This has been building in me for awhile.

People seem to be wanting a team with absolutely no weaknesses, a team so complete that nobody we might face in the NCAAT would have any chance of exploiting us to any significant extent and certainly not of beating us. But that's not realistic. Nobody goes undefeated and there are no guarantees in the Tournament. One of the things that makes college basketball great is that all the teams have flaws, and the team that wins managed to overcome its flaws on the way to the championship.

What if our center gets hurt? Then the backup would have to play more and hopefully rise to the occasion. Same as if our PG got hurt, or our star freshman PF got hurt. Or anybody else.

If a starter-quality center falls into our laps and Coach K wants the kid, then great. Personally, I think it would be counter-productive to bring in a 13th recruited scholarship player for no real reason other than an insurance against injury.

Kedsy - no problem. I didn't think you were calling me out at all, nor would I be offended if you did!

In any event, others have already stated, probably better than I can, the thought here. It's not that the addition of Black or whoever would create a flawless team, an invulnerable team without weakness. Would all fans want such a team? Of course, but as you say, that is not realistic.

But I don't think that's the expectation of those who are open to adding a 5th year big. The idea isn't to lock in a perfect team. Rather, it's to acknowledge what appears to be the biggest flaw(s) in the roster and try to address them in a way that is a net positive for the team as a whole. If the team can be improved, why not improve it? Unless there are conduct or work habit or other chemistry-type issues in play, it seems to me that adding a big body who has proven that he can play at the high D-1 level, and who appears to be a significant, or at least a significant enough upgrade over Marshall, Josh, or Amile playing the 5 next year, makes sense. Not to just replace them, nail them to the bench, and play 35 minutes himself, but rather for K to be able to take a good chunk of Center minutes and give them to a guy who not only has the body for Center to be his natural position, but also has the skills to make good use of the minutes, and thereby put him in the mix with at least Josh and Marshall.

I think this would not only benefit the team in terms of its performance down low next year, but also Amile in the long run. I agree with those who look at his frame and doubt he's going to be able to carry all that much weight on it, ever. Could be wrong. But I think it's much more likely that long term success for him is going to involve adding a jumpshot and becoming a hybrid 3/4 than it does adding 35 or more pounds and becoming a low post banger. Rather than retard his growth, I think having him gain some weight but not be single-minded about it, and work on diversifying his game with the idea of being the first forward off the bench next year is not only a reasonable goal for him, it would be great for the team to have him in that role, and would really prepare him to break out as a junior.

None of that is to say that if we don't add another big, the team is doomed. It isn't. We're going to be an excellent team and win a lot of games regardless, probably be in the Top 10 all year. Again. But every team has something that is, or appears to be, its Achilles heel. I don't see why we wouldn't want to address that area if we can do so in a way that is a net positive for the team.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I don't know or remember anybody who scoffed at that. Not to mention that it hasn't turned out as anything yet. At this point most of us seem to believe Rodney Hood is going to be a good one, and my recollection is pretty much the same group thought it the moment we heard he was considering transferring, if not before.


As to your 1st sentence, here's some comments from the "Rodney Hood Transferring" thread from last year:

"I think that Murphy and Gbinije along with the hopes of getting Jabari Parker and/or Wiggins makes adding Hood kind of unnecessary. He won't fill a need (we're going to be looking for big men, not second-tier SF)."

"The Ziegler kid made sense, due to Duke recruiting him in high school. The Uconn big was a head scratcher to me, beyond being a stopgap if Mason left, but now the Hood kid too?"

"It doesn't make sense to add Hood."

"What we should not, and hopefully will not do is take a player that even slightly hurts our chances with Jabari Parker."

"It is a curious development, this apparent mutual interest between Duke and Hood. For it would seem at first glance that Duke wouldn't "need" Hood when he becomes eligible, as a soph in 2013-'14. This would seem even more the case, doubly or triply so, should Jabari Parker arrive that season."

Now, in fairness, there are many comments on the same thread that thought Hood was solid and a great asset for Duke to have(myself included;)) but it certainly wasn't unanimous.

As to your 2nd sentence, it's turned out that we really did need Hood this year as Silent G is gone and Murphy has been less-than-dominant. Throw in the fact that our Center position will likely be undersized and having a 6'8" SF will certainly help compensate for our lack of size in the post(if you believe the theory that oversized Guards and Wings can even the scales vs. undersized Forwards and Centers).

[Troublemaker]

Memphis fan's take on Black: http://www.memphisflyer.com/TigerBlue/archives/2013/04/09/tarik-black-leaving-university-of-memphis

Mixed bag of quotes in this analysis, but overall, more positive than negative, imo:


Black had better hands offensively than Dorsey the first night he took the court for the Tigers. And his presence in the locker room was that of a veteran leader: a quick smile, eye contact with media types, a willingness to acknowledge shortcomings as well as strengths. Black would be named captain of his team as a sophomore. Players two years his senior would follow Black’s lead...

Black’s downward spiral began with his storming out of a late-November practice, the frustration of his team’s disappointing start fracturing what seemed to be the strongest pillar of leadership on coach Josh Pastner’s squad...

Even with added weight, the 6-9, 260-pound Black played smaller than he was. Over a six-game stretch in February, Black grabbed no more than three rebounds. He blocked 20 shots in 32 games (after rejecting 56 in 35 games as a freshman). Four Tigers made at least third-team All-CUSA, and none of them were named Tarik Black...

Tarik Black’s a good man. And I’m convinced he’ll lead other men someday. There are life stages, alas, when familiarity — of setting, of faces — stunts growth. A new challenge should fuel growth for Black, and basketball may prove to be merely incidental. I, for one, wish him success...

[Edouble]

As to your 1st sentence, here's some comments from the "Rodney Hood Transferring" thread from last year:

"I think that Murphy and Gbinije along with the hopes of getting Jabari Parker and/or Wiggins makes adding Hood kind of unnecessary. He won't fill a need (we're going to be looking for big men, not second-tier SF)."

"The Ziegler kid made sense, due to Duke recruiting him in high school. The Uconn big was a head scratcher to me, beyond being a stopgap if Mason left, but now the Hood kid too?"

"It doesn't make sense to add Hood."

"What we should not, and hopefully will not do is take a player that even slightly hurts our chances with Jabari Parker."

"It is a curious development, this apparent mutual interest between Duke and Hood. For it would seem at first glance that Duke wouldn't "need" Hood when he becomes eligible, as a soph in 2013-'14. This would seem even more the case, doubly or triply so, should Jabari Parker arrive that season."

Now, in fairness, there are many comments on the same thread that thought Hood was solid and a great asset for Duke to have(myself included;)) but it certainly wasn't unanimous.

As to your 2nd sentence, it's turned out that we really did need Hood this year as Silent G is gone and Murphy has been less-than-dominant. Throw in the fact that our Center position will likely be undersized and having a 6'8" SF will certainly help compensate for our lack of size in the post(if you believe the theory that oversized Guards and Wings can even the scales vs. undersized Forwards and Centers).

Dang, way to jog that guy's memory, lol! Great post! Provides some much needed perspective.

[CDu]

Two recent tweets related to Duke and Tarik Black:

Evan Williams (@busting brackets): Two likeliest suitors for Memphis grad transfer Tarik Black (C) are Minnesota and Duke from what I gather. Kansas loosely in mix too. April 16

Laura Keeley (@laurakeeley): They are pursuing him RT @BrinsonMatt10 Any word that Duke might get Tarik Black next year!? He played for Memphis past 3 years! April 16

Take these tweets for whatever they are worth...

[BismarckDuke]

Well, since Black was no knock-out performer I can't image he would go any place and demand playing time.

I would think he would like to go to a coaching system that would be able to help improve him. His development has to be a priority not playing time, for him.

Him coming to Duke adds a nice proven presence in the middle, with his experience and gives Marshall someone to practice against to improve him.

Thus, this would be a nice fit for Duke. A proven prensence in the middle, someone who can't "demand" plaing time (no head case), a chance to improve under good coaches and a good practice guy for Marshall.

[Kedsy]

Well, since Black was no knock-out performer I can't image he would go any place and demand playing time.

I would think he would like to go to a coaching system that would be able to help improve him. His development has to be a priority not playing time, for him.

Are you kidding? He's already been in college for four years, and if he doesn't play a pretty good amount his last year in college he won't have much (if any) chance to go pro. Why would his "development" be a priority?

[CDu]

Are you kidding? He's already been in college for four years, and if he doesn't play a pretty good amount his last year in college he won't have much (if any) chance to go pro. Why would his "development" be a priority?

Yeah, I don't see any way Black would transfer to a program with the expectation of playing less than 20-25 mpg. It's just not realistic to expect anything else.

If Evan Williams is to be believed, then I'd see the decision between Minnesota and Duke as one of a little more available playing time (and offensive touches) versus a better chance to play for a title (gain in exposure). But whichever place he chooses would be expecting him to start and play significant minutes.

[miramar]

If Evan Williams is to be believed, then I'd see the decision between Minnesota and Duke as one of a little more available playing time (and offensive touches) versus a better chance to play for a title (gain in exposure). But whichever place he chooses would be expecting him to start and play significant minutes.

This is rather interesting if true. It's the rivalry that spans generations.

[tommy]

Two recent tweets related to Duke and Tarik Black:

Evan Williams (@busting brackets): Two likeliest suitors for Memphis grad transfer Tarik Black (C) are Minnesota and Duke from what I gather. Kansas loosely in mix too. April 16

Laura Keeley (@laurakeeley): They are pursuing him RT @BrinsonMatt10 Any word that Duke might get Tarik Black next year!? He played for Memphis past 3 years! April 16

Take these tweets for whatever they are worth...

I have read that Georgetown is also in the mix, so it's more like a three team race.

[BismarckDuke]

Are you kidding? He's already been in college for four years, and if he doesn't play a pretty good amount his last year in college he won't have much (if any) chance to go pro. Why would his "development" be a priority?

Interesting, so if get you right, playing time = NBA and player development is no issue, interesting.

The guy never played big minutes at Memphis, why would he go to a "bigger" big tiem program and expect to play more? Under Coach K, you need to develop as a person and a player to get playing time. So yes, IMO, his development would have to be a prority.

[gam7]

Interesting, so if get you right, playing time = NBA and player development is no issue, interesting.

The guy never played big minutes at Memphis, why would he go to a "bigger" big tiem program and expect to play more? Under Coach K, you need to develop as a person and a player to get playing time. So yes, IMO, his development would have to be a prority.

Your post suggested that playing time should be a secondary concern to development. Growing as a player is something everyone at Duke (and everyone who wants to be good) does throughout one's career. Kedsy is just saying that the biggest factor for him as a one-year player who presumably will want to play professionally will be to get exposure to show how good he is (and how much he's developed). To answer your question, he would expect to play as much (or more) for Duke because there is a large gaping hole on the court that used to be filled by 14 feet worth of seniors. His interests will not be served by going somewhere where he'll be sitting on the bench.

[Kedsy]

Interesting, so if get you right, playing time = NBA and player development is no issue, interesting.

The guy never played big minutes at Memphis, why would he go to a "bigger" big tiem program and expect to play more? Under Coach K, you need to develop as a person and a player to get playing time. So yes, IMO, his development would have to be a prority.

No, you don't get me right. Playing time does not equal NBA, but *no* playing time does equal *no* NBA.

Also, he played 20+ mpg all three of his years at Memphis. For his career he's averaged 23.0 mpg. Maybe he shouldn't expect to play more, but I'd bet he doesn't expect to play too much less, either.

Finally, you said "development has to be a priority not playing time" (emphasis mine) in your original post. Tarik Black only has one year of college ball left. Certainly there's some development to be done, but if the guy's a project, as you seem to be suggesting, who needs a year or more of development before he can worry about playing time, then why would we want him? If all we needed was a big practice body we have Todd Z.

[MCFinARL]

I have read that Georgetown is also in the mix, so it's more like a three team race.

Wow, that is interesting, given that they will have Josh Smith next year. Could they put them on the court at the same time?

[CDu]

No, you don't get me right. Playing time does not equal NBA, but *no* playing time does equal *no* NBA.

Also, he played 20+ mpg all three of his years at Memphis. For his career he's averaged 23.0 mpg. Maybe he shouldn't expect to play more, but I'd bet he doesn't expect to play too much less, either.

Finally, you said "development has to be a priority not playing time" (emphasis mine) in your original post. Tarik Black only has one year of college ball left. Certainly there's some development to be done, but if the guy's a project, as you seem to be suggesting, who needs a year or more of development before he can worry about playing time, then why would we want him? If all we needed was a big practice body we have Todd Z.

Agreed completely. If Black doesn't play much next year, it highly unlikely he gets drafted. That makes it much harder for him to make the NBA. So wherever he goes next year, he's going to plan to play substantial minutes (i.e., no less than he was at Memphis). Likewise, Duke would not be interested in bringing him in to be a practice player and spot sub. While he'd be a better option than Big Z in that role, it's certainly not worth the potential chemistry risk just to add a better practice player.

That said, Black is not a project. He has shown he can score. He has shown he can defend and block shots. He's big and physical. He was limited last year with a groin injury, and that undoubtedly affected his stats last year. The only area in which Black hasn't shown well is in his rebounding. But part of that is due to having played with a bunch of other tall guys who were good rebounders (Wes Witherspoon, Will Coleman, and Will Barton as a frosh; Witherspoon, Barton, and Adonis Thomas as a soph; Thomas, DJ Stephens, and Shaq Goodwin as a junior) which served to limit ALL of those players' rebound totals.

There is no reason to believe that Black would be a project or an unproductive player in a Duke uniform. I would expect him to improve his rebounding (thanks to better coaching, better health, and fewer threats to his rebound totals), and he might even maintain his decent scoring. I could easily see him as an 8 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.5-2 bpg guy in 25 mpg next year. In fact, that's on the low end of my expectation range for him in a Duke uniform. And that would be exactly the type of player we need. Could he even become a 10/7.5/2 guy with several months being taught by Coach K (rather than Pastner)? I think so.

[BismarckDuke]

Well, here is how I look at it.

He never shined at Memphis, thus any hope for an NBA shot is very very slime, if any. For him to get to the NBA he needs to develop his game so that in ANY playing time he gets he shines. If he plays for 23 minutes and doesn't do much, say 8 pts and 5 rebounds, that won't attract the NBA folks. Nice stats for a role player in college.

But if he gets 8 points and 5 rebounds in 15 minutes, that would look pretty good. With that he would see more playing time, maybe get to the 25 minutes and be able to score 11-12 points and grab 7-8 rebounds. Consider these stats at Duke and in the ACC versus what he did in Conference USA, a far less superior conference. That could get him some notice from the NBA.

So bascially, I'm saying he has not shined in his years at Memphis and thus no interest from the NBA. For him to get to the NBA, he needs to develop his game. As he develops his game he will get more playing time. So playing time can not be his top priority. Developing his game so he gets more playing time has to be his top priority.

After having read all Coach K's books and seeing how he plays guys, he believes they need to develop as a player before they get playing time.

I know he only has 1 year to do this but if he doesn't develop his game better in that time he won't get looked at by the NBA. If he wants to play to develop his game then he better go to a mid mid major.

[airowe]

There are some that feel Black's lack of development at Memphis had more to do with his coach than the player. Duke is heavily involved with Black.As JimSumner stated many times in this thread, they aren't just going to add a warm body.

[tommy]

Wow, that is interesting, given that they will have Josh Smith next year. Could they put them on the court at the same time?

First of all, if I'm not mistaken, Smith won't even be eligible until the second semester, in January.

Moreover, he never ever got in anything close to real game condition his whole time at UCLA. Will he be in game condition at Georgetown? I'll believe it when I see it. And when Smith did play at UCLA, he rarely showed all that much in terms of skills. Big body, but little real impact. Below the rim game, lazy defensively, no reliable moves or jump shot on O. To go along with a piss poor attitude.

I don't think he would beat out Tarik Black.

[CDu]

There are some that feel Black's lack of development at Memphis had more to do with his coach than the player. Duke is heavily involved with Black.As JimSumner stated many times in this thread, they aren't just going to add a warm body.

Exactly. On top of that, Black was hindered last year by a groin injury.

[miramar]

He never shined at Memphis, thus any hope for an NBA shot is very very slime, if any.

A difinite LOL.

[BismarckDuke]

A difinite LOL.

LOL, that is my language. I have 2 paid sites to pro scouts. His NBA opporutnity doesn't even rate at "very very slim" it is "very very slime." None of these pro scouts say anything about this kid. Which is very rare. these two sites have 4 - 5 guys on each site talking about propects and he doesn't come up. Actually, when a kid doesn't come on the NBA radar but the kid thinks they are, one guy refers to them as "slime." it is an inside joke between them, so...

On these sites, they talk about kids who are ready for the NBA, who might develop into an NBA prospect and every now and then they mention kids who don't have a chance but the kid thinks they do. Black doesn't even get talked about, so that has to say something. I beleive the kids who think they are NBA ready but they feel never will be are considered "slime" thus I put Black in this group, since he doesn't get talked about.

The pro scouts always talk about how the player is either NBA ready, has "developed" into an NBA prospect or how they need to "develop" more and when they talk about the kids who think they are NBA ready but they feel they are not, talk aboout how the kid never "developed" his game for the NBA.

That is why I beleive he has to develop his game. Then I watch how Coach K plays his players and the ones who get playing time are the ones who develop their game. Jefferson this year was put into a spot when Kelly went down, got a lot of minutes. But he never "developed" and when Kelly came back he was lucky to get 3 or 4 minutes of playing time. I think the most he got was 7 minutes one game, bascially because he never developed his game while playing all those minutes.

So Jefferson got a lot of playing time when Kelly was out but when Kelly returned Jefferson's playing time was evaluated and we saw what they thought of his development.

[MCFinARL]

First of all, if I'm not mistaken, Smith won't even be eligible until the second semester, in January.

Moreover, he never ever got in anything close to real game condition his whole time at UCLA. Will he be in game condition at Georgetown? I'll believe it when I see it. And when Smith did play at UCLA, he rarely showed all that much in terms of skills. Big body, but little real impact. Below the rim game, lazy defensively, no reliable moves or jump shot on O. To go along with a piss poor attitude.

I don't think he would beat out Tarik Black.

That's a fair point--and you are right that he won't be eligible until second semester. I guess the question is more why they took Smith than why they would take Black--but maybe Black would buy them another year to develop Smith into a serviceable player, if they can.

[MCFinARL]

LOL, that is my language. I have 2 paid sites to pro scouts. His NBA opporutnity doesn't even rate at "very very slim" it is "very very slime." None of these pro scouts say anything about this kid. Which is very rare. these two sites have 4 - 5 guys on each site talking about propects and he doesn't come up. Actually, when a kid doesn't come on the NBA radar but the kid thinks they are, one guy refers to them as "slime." it is an inside joke between them, so...

On these sites, they talk about kids who are ready for the NBA, who might develop into an NBA prospect and every now and then they mention kids who don't have a chance but the kid thinks they do. Black doesn't even get talked about, so that has to say something. I beleive the kids who think they are NBA ready but they feel never will be are considered "slime" thus I put Black in this group, since he doesn't get talked about.

The pro scouts always talk about how the player is either NBA ready, has "developed" into an NBA prospect or how they need to "develop" more and when they talk about the kids who think they are NBA ready but they feel they are not, talk aboout how the kid never "developed" his game for the NBA.

That is why I beleive he has to develop his game. Then I watch how Coach K plays his players and the ones who get playing time are the ones who develop their game. Jefferson this year was put into a spot when Kelly went down, got a lot of minutes. But he never "developed" and when Kelly came back he was lucky to get 3 or 4 minutes of playing time. I think the most he got was 7 minutes one game, bascially because he never developed his game while playing all those minutes.

So Jefferson got a lot of playing time when Kelly was out but when Kelly returned Jefferson's playing time was evaluated and we saw what they thought of his development.

This is getting off the point of this thread, but I don't think this is a fair assertion at all. Coach K likes to put his best players on the court, and he likes to use more experienced players when he can. Jefferson would have had to "develop" at an astonishing rate to take any significant number of minutes from a senior Ryan Kelly when Kelly returned. I think Jefferson's game did develop quite a bit when Ryan was injured, and I expect it will continue to develop even more over the off season and into next year. Perhaps this wasn't what you intended, but your post suggests some failure or character flaw on Jefferson's part, which I think is entirely unwarranted.

[CDu]

That's a fair point--and you are right that he won't be eligible until second semester. I guess the question is more why they took Smith than why they would take Black--but maybe Black would buy them another year to develop Smith into a serviceable player, if they can.

That would be exactly the idea. Smith is a bit of a project. So they'll need a guy to fill in in the meantime.

[Kedsy]

Then I watch how Coach K plays his players and the ones who get playing time are the ones who develop their game. Jefferson this year was put into a spot when Kelly went down, got a lot of minutes. But he never "developed" and when Kelly came back he was lucky to get 3 or 4 minutes of playing time. I think the most he got was 7 minutes one game, bascially because he never developed his game while playing all those minutes.

So Jefferson got a lot of playing time when Kelly was out but when Kelly returned Jefferson's playing time was evaluated and we saw what they thought of his development.

I completely disagree with this. The players at Duke who get playing time are the team's best 7 players (occasionally 6 or occasionally 8, but usually 7), not "the ones who develop their game" (although I suppose you could argue the "best" players are also the "best developed").

The difference between Amile's play at the end of the season vs. the beginning of the season was immense. His "development" was obvious and strong, especially if you watched the Creighton game. He didn't play much after Ryan's return because adding Ryan to the rotation put Amile below the threshold of being one of the 7 best players on the team. So I don't think his dropping out of the regular rotation says anything at all about "what they thought of his development."

[budwom]

Some folks in this thread seriously misunderestimating Mr. Black's talents.

[RoyalBlue08]

Some folks in this thread seriously misunderestimating Mr. Black's talents.

Is this a double negative all in one word?

[budwom]

Is this a double negative all in one word?

If the word was good enough for our 43rd President, it's surely good enough for the likes of me!

[dukedoc]

TDD, Steve Wiseman and others reporting through twitterage that the coaches were in home with Mr. Black this evening. I didn't realize we had progressed so far in the relationship. I thought we were merely passing notes in class rather than going so far as to meet the parents.

Is there any intel about this young man? Not so much his size and stats, but rather his personality, work ethic, leadership qualities, selflessness, etc? Would he be a positive addition in the lockerroom? I've seen various things on the vaunted interwebs including some negativity from Memphis folk who may just be sour graping over it all.

[CDu]

TDD, Steve Wiseman and others reporting through twitterage that the coaches were in home with Mr. Black this evening. I didn't realize we had progressed so far in the relationship. I thought we were merely passing notes in class rather than going so far as to meet the parents.

Is there any intel about this young man? Not so much his size and stats, but rather his personality, work ethic, leadership qualities, selflessness, etc? Would he be a positive addition in the lockerroom? I've seen various things on the vaunted interwebs including some negativity from Memphis folk who may just be sour graping over it all.

I think the intel is as follows:
- very promising freshman and sophomore years
- groin injury limited him this past year
- had a falling out with the coaches this past season, culminating with him walking out on a practice
- big, strong, and very athletic
- no shooting touch whatsoever, but very strong finisher around the rim
- very good offensive rebounder
- uncertain about his rebounding prowess, as Memphis has routinely played multiple strong rebounders at the same time (with each of them stealing rebounds from each other)
- inconsistent defensively, often out of position resulting in poor defensive rebound totals and foul rate

I think the takeaway is that the guy is a very talented prospect who has gotten very little quality coaching at the college level. The result is a very inconsistent player - tons of potential, plenty of mistakes.

The hope would be that, with a summer/fall of work with a real coaching staff, Black will figure things out defensively to go along with his talents offensively.

But yes, the in-home is a positive sign in that I think it clearly establishes that we are very interested in him and that he is very interested in us.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think the intel is as follows:
- very promising freshman and sophomore years
- groin injury limited him this past year
- had a falling out with the coaches this past season, culminating with him walking out on a practice
- big, strong, and very athletic
- no shooting touch whatsoever, but very strong finisher around the rim
- very good offensive rebounder
- uncertain about his rebounding prowess, as Memphis has routinely played multiple strong rebounders at the same time (with each of them stealing rebounds from each other)
- inconsistent defensively, often out of position resulting in poor defensive rebound totals and foul rate

I think the takeaway is that the guy is a very talented prospect who has gotten very little quality coaching at the college level. The result is a very inconsistent player - tons of potential, plenty of mistakes.

The hope would be that, with a summer/fall of work with a real coaching staff, Black will figure things out defensively to go along with his talents offensively.

But yes, the in-home is a positive sign in that I think it clearly establishes that we are very interested in him and that he is very interested in us.

I'm sure that the coaching staff is having lots of conversations with him regarding the bold text. I would imagine that they will be looking for some intensive explanations. Say what you will about some of our problem players in the past, I have never heard the slightest hint of something like that in a Duke practice.

Given the current situation with Marshall, I'm hopeful that this comes to fruition and that it works out well for all parties (taking some pressure off of a Marshall recovery, giving Black the exposure and coaching he needs to try and play at the next level, and helping Duke fill some space under the hoop to make the most of next year's very talented wings).

Go Duke!

[plimnko]

I'm sure that the coaching staff is having lots of conversations with him regarding the bold text. I would imagine that they will be looking for some intensive explanations. Say what you will about some of our problem players in the past, I have never heard the slightest hint of something like that in a Duke practice.

Given the current situation with Marshall, I'm hopeful that this comes to fruition and that it works out well for all parties (taking some pressure off of a Marshall recovery, giving Black the exposure and coaching he needs to try and play at the next level, and helping Duke fill some space under the hoop to make the most of next year's very talented wings).

Go Duke!

he could be walking into an IDEAL situation. IF he's the right guy.

[dukedoc]

I think the intel is as follows:
- very promising freshman and sophomore years
- groin injury limited him this past year
- had a falling out with the coaches this past season, culminating with him walking out on a practice
- big, strong, and very athletic
- no shooting touch whatsoever, but very strong finisher around the rim
- very good offensive rebounder
- uncertain about his rebounding prowess, as Memphis has routinely played multiple strong rebounders at the same time (with each of them stealing rebounds from each other)
- inconsistent defensively, often out of position resulting in poor defensive rebound totals and foul rate

I think the takeaway is that the guy is a very talented prospect who has gotten very little quality coaching at the college level. The result is a very inconsistent player - tons of potential, plenty of mistakes.

The hope would be that, with a summer/fall of work with a real coaching staff, Black will figure things out defensively to go along with his talents offensively.

But yes, the in-home is a positive sign in that I think it clearly establishes that we are very interested in him and that he is very interested in us.

Very helpful, thanks!

[CDu]

I'm sure that the coaching staff is having lots of conversations with him regarding the bold text. I would imagine that they will be looking for some intensive explanations. Say what you will about some of our problem players in the past, I have never heard the slightest hint of something like that in a Duke practice.

Given the current situation with Marshall, I'm hopeful that this comes to fruition and that it works out well for all parties (taking some pressure off of a Marshall recovery, giving Black the exposure and coaching he needs to try and play at the next level, and helping Duke fill some space under the hoop to make the most of next year's very talented wings).

Go Duke!

Yes, I am sure that the staff is very cognizant of the situation last year, and will certainly inquire about it. My hope is that the walkout was a result of overall frustration with the lack of coaching/organization/control in Memphis. It is generally not acceptable to walk out of a practice, but there can be extenuating circumstances that justify it to some degree.

In any case, he'll only be coming to Duke if the staff feels that he's not going to be an attitude problem. If that's the case, then I hope we get him because I think we're going to need him.


he could be walking into an IDEAL situation. IF he's the right guy.

Totally agree. There is a wide open opportunity to be the starting center and compete for a national championship. That can't be said for a ton of other places right now.

[DUKIE V(A)]

I must confess I was a little surprised that Duke would be interested in taking a fifth year guy -- though in hindsight it makes a lot of sense. Credit to Coach K and his staff for adapting to the new college basketball landscape. I haven't heard it mentioned (and apologize if it has been), but I wonder whether the apparent mutual interest between Black and Duke can be traced back to the tournament in the Bahamas. I would be interested in hearing about whether Black had the opportunity to social with the Duke players at the tournament and built some strong bonds with them. Similarly, I wonder whether the staff (in scouting other teams) came away particularly impressed with Black.

[COYS]

If that's the case, then I hope we get him because I think we're going to need him.

I have admittedly been torn on the idea of bringing in a grad transfer. Purely from the standpoint of a fan who always roots for "our guys," I'd want Jabari to be like Lebron or Magic and prove easily capable of filling in at the 5 whenever the combo of Josh, Amile, and Marshall are not up to the task.

However, I also recognize we can't make players into something that they are not just by wishing. With Marshall recovering from foot surgery, he will have less time to work on his game this summer. As other posters have noted, if Amile adds 25 pounds, he will still be relatively light as centers go AND will probably lose a lot of his quickness and mobility, which is his greatest asset. Josh is a tough, hard-nosed player who doesn't mind putting in time in the trenches, but he's also probably best utilized as an energy sub. Also, I think Jabari is going to be great, but Lebron he is not (who is?). In stretches I think a combo of Jabari, Alex, Marshall, and Josh can guard opposing C's. However, there will be times when that group is just not up to the task . . . and that is not a bad thing. Marshall should be able to develop on his own terms without pressure. Amile and Jabari should be put in positions where they are best able to succeed (which probably means playing against 4's and 3's on defense more frequently than 5's). Finally, TEAM success is the ultimate goal, and I just don't see any way that adding Black (assuming the staff is sure he's a good fit) doesn't make the whole team better.

So, I think CDu's point sums it up. I hope Tarik decides to come to Duke because I really do think Duke will benefit from his presence on the court. I also hope that Tarik benefits from a year with a great coaching staff. Both parties can gain a lot. Better yet, the team can gain a lot.

[CDu]

I have admittedly been torn on the idea of bringing in a grad transfer. Purely from the standpoint of a fan who always roots for "our guys," I'd want Jabari to be like Lebron or Magic and prove easily capable of filling in at the 5 whenever the combo of Josh, Amile, and Marshall are not up to the task.

However, I also recognize we can't make players into something that they are not just by wishing. With Marshall recovering from foot surgery, he will have less time to work on his game this summer. As other posters have noted, if Amile adds 25 pounds, he will still be relatively light as centers go AND will probably lose a lot of his quickness and mobility, which is his greatest asset. Josh is a tough, hard-nosed player who doesn't mind putting in time in the trenches, but he's also probably best utilized as an energy sub. Also, I think Jabari is going to be great, but Lebron he is not (who is?). In stretches I think a combo of Jabari, Alex, Marshall, and Josh can guard opposing C's. However, there will be times when that group is just not up to the task . . . and that is not a bad thing. Marshall should be able to develop on his own terms without pressure. Amile and Jabari should be put in positions where they are best able to succeed (which probably means playing against 4's and 3's on defense more frequently than 5's). Finally, TEAM success is the ultimate goal, and I just don't see any way that adding Black (assuming the staff is sure he's a good fit) doesn't make the whole team better.

So, I think CDu's point sums it up. I hope Tarik decides to come to Duke because I really do think Duke will benefit from his presence on the court. I also hope that Tarik benefits from a year with a great coaching staff. Both parties can gain a lot. Better yet, the team can gain a lot.

I mentioned earlier in either this or another thread, but I think the bolded part warranted repeating the point. We have a finite (and not too large) number of years left with Coach K on the bench at Duke. As such, I want to maximize every season's chance at a championship-caliber team. I see next year's team as possibly the most talented and deep team we've had at the PG through PF spots in many years. But there are huge question marks at center. I don't want us to be in a position of trying to mask that weakness, so any addition that could strengthen us at the center spot is one that I support (as long as it doesn't ruin team chemistry).

[jay]

Per Gary Parrish, Duke put the "full court press" on Tarik yesterday. Coach K, Wojo and Nate all visited...

https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/327092649330880513

[dukedoc]

Per Gary Parrish, Duke put the "full court press" on Tarik yesterday. Coach K, Wojo and Nate all visited...

https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/327092649330880513

Per Matt Norlander, Wojo two-hand slapped their front door to demonstrate Duke's degree of interest. Ha!

Matt Norlander‏@MattNorlandernow
Do you knock on the door or just two-hand slap it? MT @GaryParrishCBS: Coach K, Wojo, Nate James all visited Tarik Black's home yesterday

[dukedoc]

"So Duke, Kansas, Ohio State and at least 20 other high-major programs are all lined up and working like they're the last 25 dudes in a bar with just one moderately attractive girl. Closing time is in 15 minutes. Somebody just yelled last call." - Gary Parrish

LINK (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22138713/how-tarik-black-went-from-a-reserve-at-memphis-to-the-nations-most-desirable-big)

[COYS]

"So Duke, Kansas, Ohio State and at least 20 other high-major programs are all lined up and working like they're the last 25 dudes in a bar with just one moderately attractive girl. Closing time is in 15 minutes. Somebody just yelled last call." - Gary Parrish

LINK (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22138713/how-tarik-black-went-from-a-reserve-at-memphis-to-the-nations-most-desirable-big)

Sounds almost like a country song.

[BD80]

"So Duke, Kansas, Ohio State and at least 20 other high-major programs are all lined up and working like they're the last 25 dudes in a bar with just one moderately attractive girl. Closing time is in 15 minutes. Somebody just yelled last call." - Gary Parrish

LINK (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/22138713/how-tarik-black-went-from-a-reserve-at-memphis-to-the-nations-most-desirable-big)

Thank goodness Pitino the elder isn't in the hunt. That's enough time for three recruits.

[miramar]

I think the takeaway is that the guy is a very talented prospect who has gotten very little quality coaching at the college level. The result is a very inconsistent player - tons of potential, plenty of mistakes.

The hope would be that, with a summer/fall of work with a real coaching staff, Black will figure things out defensively to go along with his talents offensively.

But yes, the in-home is a positive sign in that I think it clearly establishes that we are very interested in him and that he is very interested in us.

That's great intel, but more importantly it also indicates that the myth that Duke does not develop big men has seemingly been put to rest. I guess when you have one big man taken in the first round and another on the way (with a number of second team All American awards to boot) it's harder to talk trash about your program.

So if Tarik Black ends up at Duke, Miles and Mason will deserve part of the credit for his recruitment.

[sagegrouse]

Sounds almost like a country song.


Thank goodness Pitino the elder isn't in the hunt. That's enough time for three recruits.

As performed by Mickey Gilley:


All the girls all get prettier at closin' time
They all begin to look like movie stars
All the girls all get prettier at closin' time
When the change starts taking place
It puts a glow on every face
Of the fallen angels of the back street bars

Hmmm... "fallen angels of the back street bars." Not a shot at Tarik but maybe a good metaphor for graduating seniors with eligibility.

sagegrouse

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thank goodness Pitino the elder isn't in the hunt. That's enough time for three recruits.

Don't think this post got enough love. Pitino's "Gone in 15 seconds" story lives on!

If I could, I'd spork you again.

[-bdbd]

As performed by Mickey Gilley:



Hmmm... "fallen angels of the back street bars." Not a shot at Tarik but maybe a good metaphor for graduating seniors with eligibility.

sagegrouse



A '2' AT 10 IS A '10' AT 2.....

:p

[ice-9]

I think the takeaway is that the guy is a very talented prospect who has gotten very little quality coaching at the college level. The result is a very inconsistent player - tons of potential, plenty of mistakes.

The hope would be that, with a summer/fall of work with a real coaching staff, Black will figure things out defensively to go along with his talents offensively.

Hmm, big man with tons of potential, plenty of mistakes...brings to mind a young Mason Plumlee who turned out pretty good. Did he get very little quality coaching at the college level?

I think we have a tendency to give too much credit to or place too much blame on coaches.

[BigZ]

Looking at his bio it says he was Junior last season. So does that mean he would be able to play 2 years at Duke. Being honest I dont understand this.

[miramar]

Looking at his bio it says he was Junior last season. So does that mean he would be able to play 2 years at Duke. Being honest I dont understand this.

He is graduating in three years, and with his degree in hand he can play immediately if his new school has a degree program unavailable at his current college. UNC did it recently, but I don't remember Duke doing it before.

Dick Vitale hates the rule because he says that a coach and school invest time in a player and then he takes off, but considering how little loyalty coaches are showing I can't blame a kid for trying to better himself.

[CDu]

Looking at his bio it says he was Junior last season. So does that mean he would be able to play 2 years at Duke. Being honest I dont understand this.

No. You get 4 years of eligibility. You get 5 years (barring rare injury circumstances) to complete those 4 years of eligibility. Black has used 3 of those 4 years of eligibility. So he has 1 year of eligibility left.

The reason Black is eligible to play next year is because he is graduating (he redshirted as a freshman). That makes him eligible to play immediately (normally transfers would have to sit a year). But wherever he plays, he has 1 year.

[MCFinARL]

He is graduating in three years, and with his degree in hand he can play immediately if his new school has a degree program unavailable at his current college. UNC did it recently, but I don't remember Duke doing it before.

Dick Vitale hates the rule because he says that a coach and school invest time in a player and then he takes off, but considering how little loyalty coaches are showing I can't blame a kid for trying to better himself.

In the rare instance where people are actually student athletes, though, the rule is a good one, because it permits a player to continue his education in an appropriate program even if his current school doesn't have that program, while still using his available eligibility. The problem, of course, is that the rule is manipulated for athletic purposes rather than for academic ones.

The one place it can be really beneficial to athletes is in the case of Ivy League players who lose a season to injury, because the Ivy League does not allow redshirts. I don't know how often this has been used by basketball players, but it's very common for Ivy League lacrosse players to enroll in graduate school somewhere else and get a fourth playing year. Duke has a Harvard grad, Dan DiMaria, playing this year, and had a Dartmouth grad, Jon Livadas, on its 2010 championship team.

And, yes--the loyalty argument goes both ways.

[sagegrouse]

He is graduating in three years, and with his degree in hand he can play immediately if his new school has a degree program unavailable at his current college. UNC did it recently, but I don't remember Duke doing it before.

Dick Vitale hates the rule because he says that a coach and school invest time in a player and then he takes off, but considering how little loyalty coaches are showing I can't blame a kid for trying to better himself.


In the rare instance where people are actually student athletes, though, the rule is a good one, because it permits a player to continue his education in an appropriate program even if his current school doesn't have that program, while still using his available eligibility. The problem, of course, is that the rule is manipulated for athletic purposes rather than for academic ones.

The one place it can be really beneficial to athletes is in the case of Ivy League players who lose a season to injury, because the Ivy League does not allow redshirts. I don't know how often this has been used by basketball players, but it's very common for Ivy League lacrosse players to enroll in graduate school somewhere else and get a fourth playing year. Duke has a Harvard grad, Dan DiMaria, playing this year, and had a Dartmouth grad, Jon Livadas, on its 2010 championship team.

And, yes--the loyalty argument goes both ways.

Yeah, well, the penalties on transfer were put into place to eliminate the secondary market for players (i.e., going after players while they are enrolled at another school). And, of course, the rules penalized the players and not the schools, consistent with the plantation mentality of the NCAA. And Vitale, whom I have met and liked, is just being a shill for the coaches and ADs. I would like to hear counselor Bilas on the subject for a more balanced view.

The current system is grossly unfair to players. The graduate school exemption is the first movement toward some sanity. What else would I change? Well, if a kid isn't playing, why should he have to sit out to transfer to another of the 320 Div I schools? (OK, we can have an exception for freshman year if you insist.)


sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

Hmm, big man with tons of potential, plenty of mistakes...brings to mind a young Mason Plumlee who turned out pretty good. Did he get very little quality coaching at the college level?

Well, only if you're going to draw a comparison based on vague assessments like "tons of potential" and "plenty of mistakes." Mason Plumlee averaged nearly a double-double his junior year (11.1 ppg and 9.2 rpg, after averaging 7.2 ppg and 8.4 ppg his sophomore year), and made third-team All ACC. He developed steadily every year of his career.

I think the main people who harped on Mason's "plenty of mistakes" were Duke fans with ridiculously unrealistic expectations. Most unbiased observers saw him advance from a kid with potential his freshman year to a good player his sophomore year to a really good player his junior year to a great player his senior year. Was that because of coaching? Certainly it was at least in part. More important to this discussion, Tarik Black hasn't really shown that sort of improvement so far over his career.

[MCFinARL]

Yeah, well, the penalties on transfer were put into place to eliminate the secondary market for players (i.e., going after players while they are enrolled at another school). And, of course, the rules penalized the players and not the schools, consistent with the plantation mentality of the NCAA. And Vitale, whom I have met and liked, is just being a shill for the coaches and ADs. I would like to hear counselor Bilas on the subject for a more balanced view.

The current system is grossly unfair to players. The graduate school exemption is the first movement toward some sanity. What else would I change? Well, if a kid isn't playing, why should he have to sit out to transfer to another of the 320 Div I schools? (OK, we can have an exception for freshman year if you insist.)


sagegrouse

In general, I agree with you--I certainly agree that the rules as presently constituted penalize players far more than programs, and that is not fair. (Presumably the idea is that the program taking a transfer is penalized by having to keep someone on scholarship who is not playing, but with 13 available scholarships that isn't all that burdensome.) On the other hand, we already see kids who are transferring two or three times at the high school level, and who have all kinds of people in their ears inflating their expectations and telling them they deserve star treatment. I'd hate to see the same thing happening at the college level. Learning to deal with setbacks instead of run from them is important.

Maybe the answer would be to allow one bite at the apple--one transfer without sitting out, per four years of eligibility. After that, if you transfer you sit. I have mixed feelings about your possible freshman exception. On the one hand, that would encourage kids to be patient and really try to fit into a system before bolting; on the other hand, if you are a regular student and you realize that your first college choice was a mistake, you can transfer without having to wait a year (my daughter did--she transferred to Duke, and it was a good decision ;) ). Is there any real reason not to give freshman athletes the same option?

[CDu]

Well, only if you're going to draw a comparison based on vague assessments like "tons of potential" and "plenty of mistakes." Mason Plumlee averaged nearly a double-double his junior year (11.1 ppg and 9.2 rpg, after averaging 7.2 ppg and 8.4 ppg his sophomore year), and made third-team All ACC. He developed steadily every year of his career.

I think the main people who harped on Mason's "plenty of mistakes" were Duke fans with ridiculously unrealistic expectations. Most unbiased observers saw him advance from a kid with potential his freshman year to a good player his sophomore year to a really good player his junior year to a great player his senior year. Was that because of coaching? Certainly it was at least in part. More important to this discussion, Tarik Black hasn't really shown that sort of improvement so far over his career.

Yeah, I agree that Mason is not a good comp for Black. Maybe in terms of physical ability it is a reasonable comparison. But in terms of career arc, it is a terrible comp. Black came in arguably more ready to play (at least he had a better idea of what his game was - Mason fancied himself a ballhandling stretch-4 when he really was a post guy; Black knew he was a post guy). But for whatever reason, Black hasn't progressed, whereas Mason progressed every single year. It could be a work ethic issue. It could be a teammates issue. It could be a coaching issue. We just don't know. But I agree that it is a huge reach to suggest the two cases are similar.

[UrinalCake]

I've been mostly opposed to the idea of bringing in a fifth-year big man when the idea started circulating. But with Marshall's most recent surgery, I'm starting to come around. He hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full year since arriving at Duke, and if we can't count on him being ready then we really do need that extra body. I do think we need to temper our expectations with Black. We're not bringing in Dwight Howard. He appears to have good physical tools but learning Duke's defensive system takes a while. Rarely does a guy come in and get it right away. I'd expect him to play 15-20 minutes a game, rather than the 25-30 that some others seem to be predicting. This is kind of similar to when a high school recruit waits until the early summer to make his decision. People tend to overvalue him simply because he's the only option left. And if he doesn't come, then we've set ourselves up for disappointment.

I actually think Justin Knox is a reasonable comparison in terms of impact on the program. He transferred in and gave UNC a much needed big body, as they had only two other post players. He only averaged around 15 minutes a game, and didnt score much, but just having his presence there allowed the other players to maintain their natural positions, and provided protection against foul trouble or fatigue. If Black comes I don't think we're going to change our entire system around him. I think he'll just provide one more piece.

[jimsumner]

I've been mostly opposed to the idea of bringing in a fifth-year big man when the idea started circulating. But with Marshall's most recent surgery, I'm starting to come around. He hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full year since arriving at Duke, and if we can't count on him being ready then we really do need that extra body. I do think we need to temper our expectations with Black. We're not bringing in Dwight Howard. He appears to have good physical tools but learning Duke's defensive system takes a while. Rarely does a guy come in and get it right away. I'd expect him to play 15-20 minutes a game, rather than the 25-30 that some others seem to be predicting. This is kind of similar to when a high school recruit waits until the early summer to make his decision. People tend to overvalue him simply because he's the only option left. And if he doesn't come, then we've set ourselves up for disappointment.

I actually think Justin Knox is a reasonable comparison in terms of impact on the program. He transferred in and gave UNC a much needed big body, as they had only two other post players. He only averaged around 15 minutes a game, and didnt score much, but just having his presence there allowed the other players to maintain their natural positions, and provided protection against foul trouble or fatigue. If Black comes I don't think we're going to change our entire system around him. I think he'll just provide one more piece.

I would expect Black to be significantly more important than Justin Knox. Knox was bought in to back-up Tyler Zeller and John Henson after the Wear twins went back home. He was never expected to be more than a backup. Duke would expect Black to come in, start and give them around 25 mpg.

[mo.st.dukie]

Yeah, I agree that Mason is not a good comp for Black. Maybe in terms of physical ability it is a reasonable comparison. But in terms of career arc, it is a terrible comp. Black came in arguably more ready to play (at least he had a better idea of what his game was - Mason fancied himself a ballhandling stretch-4 when he really was a post guy; Black knew he was a post guy). But for whatever reason, Black hasn't progressed, whereas Mason progressed every single year. It could be a work ethic issue. It could be a teammates issue. It could be a coaching issue. We just don't know. But I agree that it is a huge reach to suggest the two cases are similar.

Black also struggled with a groin injury all season which could've been a factor in limiting his development. We give Quinn a pass for his freshman season because of injury, we often talk about Zoubek's development and how injuries really limited him until midway through his senior year. We are now having to talk about how Marshall's injury could impact his development, we have to be fair and factor in how Black's injury this season may have caused his development to plateau or regress even.

Had Black played for Duke over the last three years he would've been the 3rd best post player on last year's team and either the 6th or 7th man and easily our 3rd best returning player for next year even with a mediocre junior season.

[sagegrouse]

I have mixed feelings about your possible freshman exception. On the one hand, that would encourage kids to be patient and really try to fit into a system before bolting; on the other hand, if you are a regular student and you realize that your first college choice was a mistake, you can transfer without having to wait a year (my daughter did--she transferred to Duke, and it was a good decision ;) ). Is there any real reason not to give freshman athletes the same option?

I may not have made myself clear. If players who didn't get in a game much at all were allowed to transfer without penalty, that would imply that freshman would be expected to play. If some objected, then the "sitting on the bench" reason for transfer could be limited to players AFTER their freshman year.

sagegrouse

[CDu]

Black also struggled with a groin injury all season which could've been a factor in limiting his development. We give Quinn a pass for his freshman season because of injury, we often talk about Zoubek's development and how injuries really limited him until midway through his senior year. We are now having to talk about how Marshall's injury could impact his development, we have to be fair and factor in how Black's injury this season may have caused his development to plateau or regress even.

Had Black played for Duke over the last three years he would've been the 3rd best post player on last year's team and either the 6th or 7th man and easily our 3rd best returning player for next year even with a mediocre junior season.

I don't disagree with any of that. In fact, I've brought up Black's injury in this very thread. I'm also decidedly in favor of adding Black for next year.

I was simply stating that Mason is not a good reference point for Black.

[CDu]

I would expect Black to be significantly more important than Justin Knox. Knox was bought in to back-up Tyler Zeller and John Henson after the Wear twins went back home. He was never expected to be more than a backup. Duke would expect Black to come in, start and give them around 25 mpg.

I agree. The Knox comp really isn't appropriate here. Knox knew he wasn't going to start. He probably played fewer minutes than expected, but it was clear that Henson and Zeller were the starters.

I'm also not sure why folks are suggesting that Black should be expected to fill a ~15 mpg role. That's simply not going to happen. Not only is it not what Duke would expect from him, but it's what Black will expect from whatever team he chooses.

Black is getting recruited by multiple major conference teams with gaping holes at center. He's not going to choose a place in which he thinks his likely role is that of a backup. He's going to go where he is likely to start. And given how heavily the Duke staff is pursuing him, I'd think it's pretty clear that they would expect him to start, too.

[ice-9]

Well, only if you're going to draw a comparison based on vague assessments like "tons of potential" and "plenty of mistakes." Mason Plumlee averaged nearly a double-double his junior year (11.1 ppg and 9.2 rpg, after averaging 7.2 ppg and 8.4 ppg his sophomore year), and made third-team All ACC. He developed steadily every year of his career.

I think the main people who harped on Mason's "plenty of mistakes" were Duke fans with ridiculously unrealistic expectations. Most unbiased observers saw him advance from a kid with potential his freshman year to a good player his sophomore year to a really good player his junior year to a great player his senior year. Was that because of coaching? Certainly it was at least in part. More important to this discussion, Tarik Black hasn't really shown that sort of improvement so far over his career.

Well, the point wasn't a comparison. The point is that there are plenty of players out there who are talented (i.e. has tons of potential) but can't consistently put it together -- including some of our own, and of which I'd include a young MP2. Sometimes it's due to coaching, sometimes players simply develop at a different schedule, sometimes it's just because of the way things are. I just think we should restrain ourselves a bit more on laying the blame on coaches' feet, unless there's something concrete to point to.

[duke09hms]

2012 Mason-esque dunk off the fast break toward the end of this video here. Would love to see that from Quinn and Tarik next year. Play starts around 50secs. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Fa_NWg9HeQ

If he was sidelined by a groin injury this year, that def explains his lower stats. Takes a long time to heal, easy to re-aggravate, and diminishes core explosiveness.

We have a huge need for a strong physical guy in the post, and K wants him. Good enough for me. Come on down Tarik Black!

[Class of '94]

I don't know if this would fall under a separate thread (like the UCLA one or not); but Laura Keely (N&O beat writer that covers Duke) on her twitter account retweeted a tweet from Mark Biden that said Travis Wear will most like transfer from UCLA and that he talked to Duke staff about the possibility of him coming to Duke of all places. The staff said that he didn't fit into their plans. Laura is trying to confirm this but I was very surprised to see that.

If this has been mentioned or discussed in another thread, I apologize for the duplicate post.

[CDu]

I don't know if this would fall under a separate thread (like the UCLA one or not); but Laura Keely (N&O beat writer that covers Duke) on her twitter account retweeted a tweet from Mark Biden that said Travis Wear will most like transfer from UCLA and that he talked to Duke staff about the possibility of him coming to Duke of all places. The staff said that he didn't fit into their plans. Laura is trying to confirm this but I was very surprised to see that.

If this has been mentioned or discussed in another thread, I apologize for the duplicate post.

At first blush, it would seem odd that we'd turn Wear down, unless we felt very good about other options for that scholarship. I mean, if we're all-in on Black and feel good about our chances for him, maybe we don't want to entertain other options for that one spot? Or maybe we're ONLY interested in adding a guy if he's Tarik Black? Or maybe there's some misinformation in those tweets?

[Duvall]

At first blush, it would seem odd that we'd turn Wear down, unless we felt very good about other options for that scholarship. I mean, if we're all-in on Black and feel good about our chances for him, maybe we don't want to entertain other options for that one spot? Or maybe we're ONLY interested in adding a guy if he's Tarik Black? Or maybe there's some misinformation in those tweets?

Or that Travis Wear isn't good enough at basketball to risk the potential chemistry issues of taking a player that wasn't satisfied with either UNC or UCLA.

[CDu]

Or that Travis Wear isn't good enough at basketball to risk the potential chemistry issues of taking a player that wasn't satisfied with either UNC or UCLA.

Well, I don't know if I agree there. I mean, he has been as productive as Black has been, and he has played against higher-caliber competition (while the Pac-12 isn't great, it's a definite step up from C-USA). So purely from a basketball performance perspective, you'd have to think he's good enough.

The second transfer thing is definitely weird, and that could certainly be a reason for concern. Especially the way he left UNC (not quite as badly as Larry Drew did, but still without talking with the coach first). That one I would buy as opposed to a guy who stuck it out at one place until he graduated.

[ChillinDuke]

Well, I don't know if I agree there. I mean, he has been as productive as Black has been, and he has played against higher-caliber competition (while the Pac-12 isn't great, it's a definite step up from C-USA). So purely from a basketball performance perspective, you'd have to think he's good enough.

The second transfer thing is definitely weird, and that could certainly be a reason for concern. Especially the way he left UNC (not quite as badly as Larry Drew did, but still without talking with the coach first). That one I would buy as opposed to a guy who stuck it out at one place until he graduated.

I think the implication was that the chemistry/personality issues (as evidenced by two transfers from top-tier programs) are enough to outweigh any basketball skills, regardless how good.

Or something to that effect.

- Chillin

[CDu]

I think the implication was that the chemistry/personality issues (as evidenced by two transfers from top-tier programs) are enough to outweigh any basketball skills, regardless how good.

Or something to that effect.

- Chillin

Ah, okay. I can see that argument. If the concerns are personality-based to the degree that his talents aren't worth it, then I'm okay with that argument. I read the "not good enough" part first and perhaps should have read the "chemistry issues" part with more emphasis.

[Duvall]

I think the implication was that the chemistry/personality issues (as evidenced by two transfers from top-tier programs) are enough to outweigh any basketball skills, regardless how good.

Or something to that effect.

- Chillin

It was a little of both. Travis Wear (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?p1=david-wear) isn't a *bad* player - he's probably better than Josh Hairston - but his rebounding and defense look average at best, and that's really what Duke needs from a transferring big man. Throw in the fact that he was apparently unhappy at two schools where most college basketball players would walk through fire to get a scholarship, and he doesn't seem worth the trouble.

[CDu]

It was a little of both. Travis Wear (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?p1=david-wear) isn't a *bad* player - he's probably better than Josh Hairston - but his rebounding and defense look average at best, and that's really what Duke needs from a transferring big man. Throw in the fact that he was apparently unhappy at two schools where most college basketball players would walk through fire to get a scholarship, and he doesn't seem worth the trouble.

Travis Wear has been a 2-year double-digit scorer in a somewhat-major conference. He's 6'10". I think we should drop the "probably" with relation to Hairston. In terms of performance, he is arguably at least on par with Black.

From a talent/productivity standpoint, I don't think your argument holds water, because we are very actively pursuing a player with similar/less production. From a chemistry argument, I could see it.

[BD80]

I don't know if this would fall under a separate thread (like the UCLA one or not); but Laura Keely (N&O beat writer that covers Duke) on her twitter account retweeted a tweet from Mark Biden that said Travis Wear will most like transfer from UCLA and that he talked to Duke staff about the possibility of him coming to Duke of all places. The staff said that he didn't fit into their plans. Laura is trying to confirm this but I was very surprised to see that.

If this has been mentioned or discussed in another thread, I apologize for the duplicate post.

Transfer as in with a degree from UCLA to a Duke graduate program so that he is eligible immediately?

Remember, he would be dealing with a new coach if he stays at UCLA, one he did not choose to play for. I don't think there are major red flags as to chemistry. Actually, I kinda like the level of intensity he would bring to the unc games and game preparations.

[Newton_14]

To be honest, I don't think K would take Wear out of respect for UNC and Roy to be honest. Surprised Wear even asked.

Hearing good things about the Black recruitment. Hopefully K reels him in soon.

[jipops]

To be honest, I don't think K would take Wear out of respect for UNC and Roy to be honest. Surprised Wear even asked.

Hearing good things about the Black recruitment. Hopefully K reels him in soon.

Not surprised he asked, it is Duke and Coach K, and we're in need of a big. But I agree there would be a certain weirdness with the UNC history. I'm sure K feels like it would violate something.

[Henderson]

Plus Travis Wear has a history of foot injuries. This team doesn't need another big with foot problems.

[UrinalCake]

Out of curiosity, is DAVID Wear thinking about changing schools too? Would they want to go somewhere together?