2013-14 Expectations

[matt1]

To try to relieve the pain from tonight, we can talk about next year. I think that we will be great, probably preseason #2 (behind Kentucky). I think we play UK on April 7, 2014 for #5.

Also, we will have no early departures.

Remember that. Dawkins will be back.

[unexpected]

To try to relieve the pain from tonight, we can talk about next year. I think that we will be great, probably preseason #2 (behind Kentucky). I think we play UK on April 7, 2014 for #5.

Also, we will have no early departures.

Remember that. Dawkins will be back.

I was thinking about just this today! We have the potential to be great - but we have a huge, gaping hole in the middle. Not sure how much our athleticism improves next year, as well - though we'll be able to run out shooter after shooter after shooter.

[CDu]

We will have depth, athleticism, quickness, and talent at the 1-4 spots on the floor. The only question is whether we can do enough from the 5 spot. If we can, we'll be able to compete with anyone in the country.

[arnie]

I was thinking about just this today! We have the potential to be great - but we have a huge, gaping hole in the middle. Not sure how much our athleticism improves next year, as well - though we'll be able to run out shooter after shooter after shooter.

Louisville may not agree. Depends on early departures, but they could be as strong next year. Think we are top 5 if get anything from the 5.

[luburch]

So staring lineup anyone?
Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, Plumlee?
With Dawkins, Thorton, Jefferson, Hairston, Murphy and Jones are vying for minutes. Not to mention Semi.

[Edouble]

Not sure how much our athleticism improves next year

Curry and Ryan out, Parker and Hood in... more athletic. Marshall is less athletic than Mason, true, but it seems like a net gain.

[FerryFor50]

Louisville may not agree. Depends on early departures, but they could be as strong next year. Think we are top 5 if get anything from the 5.

L'ville will lose players. Russ Smith is as good as gone and Deng might bolt, too.

[Duvall]

Louisville may not agree. Depends on early departures, but they could be as strong next year. Think we are top 5 if get anything from the 5.

Based on the last six years, Duke will be top five even if they *don't* get anything from the 5. If someone can step up and fill that role, they could be even better.

[Kedsy]

So staring lineup anyone?
Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, Plumlee?
With Dawkins, Thorton, Jefferson, Hairston, Murphy and Jones are vying for minutes. Not to mention Semi.

It's "Thornton," NOT "Thorton."

We'll have to see how much Marshall improves over the summer. He may make the jump to starter, or he may not and Amile may gain some upper body strength and take the starting C job. No way of knowing at this point, but if I had to bet right now I'd say Amile. Only time will tell.

Hopefully Andre comes back and provides senior leadership as well as shooting touch, but his return is not etched in stone yet.

We should be very deep and talented all the way through to the 12th man. Impossible to say how ready Matt or Semi will be or how much improvement we'll see in Alex or Marshall, but if Coach K doesn't go 9 deep this season, then he never will. That said, there's a good chance he never will. I think if Andre comes back then at the least we'll have to go 8 deep in most games (starters plus Andre, Tyler, and a backup C), but despite having 10 to 12 players probably deserving of playing time, I'd be surprised if we go more than 8 deep in close games after January 1.

I agree with those who predict we'll be top five for pretty much the whole year. We should be really, really good.

It will be interesting to see how the addition of Pitt, Syracuse, and Notre Dame (and the additional losses that will probably result from a much tougher ACC schedule) affect our ranking over the course of the season.

[Dukeblue91]

I love the prospects of next years team but I have to be honest the 5 spot scares me allot.
I'm not sold on Marshal just yet and the little bit I have seen of him this year makes me not feel any better for our center position.
This may again be a year were we have a position that is played by committee rather then 1-2 players.
The good news is that we are deep and will be loaded with guys that can shoot the ball, but for that to work coach K really will have to go deeper then he likes.
I also hope that we have a stretch 4 emerging in the likes of Kelly, on paper this should be Murphy but he did not show much this year especially in regards to defense.
I am however excited to see more of Amile as I really believe that he is a star in the making and I'm equally excited to see Hood play for us as all our transfers always turned out to be huge gets for us and usually end in my favorite player category.
Did we not see a interview with Dawkins a few days ago where he said he was ready to play for Duke again? I would really love to see him back in a Duke uniform as he still has some unfinished business left at Duke.
I'm very excited to see all the new guys coming aboard and to see who stands out and if any one is starting material like Rasheed was this year.
Rasheed will be something very special next year too considering how awesome he was already as a freshmen.
Is it November yet?

[luburch]

It's "Thornton," NOT "Thorton."


I'm going to blame this one on iOS.

[Bluealum]

We will have depth, athleticism, quickness, and talent at the 1-4 spots on the floor. The only question is whether we can do enough from the 5 spot. If we can, we'll be able to compete with anyone in the country.

Glad this thread has already started. Easier to transition to the long basketball hiatus by thinking about next year.

I thought our team (for a Duke team) was undervalued by the media this year. Next year I feel it will be the opposite. We will have loads of talent but I wonder about leadership and chemistry.

Who are the captains? Thornton for sure, but he likely won't be a starting captain. Cook certainly has a lot of development to do to assume that mantle. He has all the talent, but is a very emotional young man that needs time to mature, should be great as a senior captain, but not sure about next year.

Hairston would make two non-starting captains, not sure if he has the personality for being a bench captain the way Tyler does. Everyone else just has too little time in the system or, in Dawkins case, a lack of continuity.

I am hoping no one transfers, but all those kids are looking at the same things we are. Quin, Tyler, Rodney, Rasheed, and Jabari will all 'expect' to play at least 25 minutes a game. Hairston as a senior will surely see 15 minutes a game. That leaves 60 minutes (at best) for

Marshall
Amile
Andre
Alex
Semi
Matt

Even if Semi and Matt get virtually zero minutes, I would think that Marshall, Amile, Andre, and Alex would all be frustrated with less than 15 minutes a game. We would be great in a full court pressing 10 deep rotation, but K has never employed such a system. He picks his best 7 players and rides them with an eighth ready to step up if something happens. 2 of Marshall, Amile, Andre, and Alex will likely not see the floor in meaningful games. It's a tough thing to manage this and maintain chemistry.

We have great potential, and K 'could' radically change his approach considering the unique makeup of this team, but it would be unprecedented. Should be fascinating to watch. These seniors will be missed for sure. Hopefully some leaders really step into new roles (Quinn ideally!).

[BlueDevilBrowns]

To me, the 2014 squad will be our most talented overall since 2004. The only question mark is the Center position. We're at least 2 deep at every other position.

How K and staff figure out how to fill the "5" spot will determine how far next year's team will go.

Cook answered the PG question this year and next year Hood will fill the SF void since Singler left. Sheed and Jabari are locked into the 2 and 4 spots. So that leaves Hairston, MP3, and Amile to fight for the C spot. I could envision putting Amile at the 5 and running an ultra-hi-tempo offense with Jefferson playing the Casey Sanders 2001 role. Cook and Sheed seem more comfortable on the break than in the half-court anyway.

However, while we will be better next year, I think college basketball as a whole will be much better next year. UNC will be back(especially if they get Wiggins), as will UK, MSU, Michigan, OSU, and maybe Louisville, IU, and Syracuse.

This was a down year so while we may be better next year than this year, the journey may be more perilous, too.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I love the prospects of next years team but I have to be honest the 5 spot scares me allot.
I'm not sold on Marshal just yet and the little bit I have seen of him this year makes me not feel any better for our center position.
This may again be a year were we have a position that is played by committee rather then 1-2 players.
The good news is that we are deep and will be loaded with guys that can shoot the ball, but for that to work coach K really will have to go deeper then he likes.
I also hope that we have a stretch 4 emerging in the likes of Kelly, on paper this should be Murphy but he did not show much this year especially in regards to defense.
I am however excited to see more of Amile as I really believe that he is a star in the making and I'm equally excited to see Hood play for us as all our transfers always turned out to be huge gets for us and usually end in my favorite player category.
Did we not see a interview with Dawkins a few days ago where he said he was ready to play for Duke again? I would really love to see him back in a Duke uniform as he still has some unfinished business left at Duke.
I'm very excited to see all the new guys coming aboard and to see who stands out and if any one is starting material like Rasheed was this year.
Rasheed will be something very special next year too considering how awesome he was already as a freshmen.
Is it November yet?

The stretch 4 next year is Jabari Parker. Period.

[Acymetric]

Glad this thread has already started. Easier to transition to the long basketball hiatus by thinking about next year.

I thought our team (for a Duke team) was undervalued by the media this year. Next year I feel it will be the opposite. We will have loads of talent but I wonder about leadership and chemistry.

Who are the captains? Thornton for sure, but he likely won't be a starting captain. Cook certainly has a lot of development to do to assume that mantle. He has all the talent, but is a very emotional young man that needs time to mature, should be great as a senior captain, but not sure about next year.

Hairston would make two non-starting captains, not sure if he has the personality for being a bench captain the way Tyler does. Everyone else just has too little time in the system really.

I am hoping no one transfers, but all those kids are looking at the same things we are. Quin, Tyler, Rodney, Rasheed, and Jabari will all 'expect' to play at least 25 minutes a game. Hairston as a senior will surely see 15 minutes a game. That leaves 60 minutes (at best) for

Marshall
Amile
Andre
Alex
Semi
Matt

Even if Semi and Matt get virtually zero minutes, I would think that Marshall, Amile, Andre, and Alex would all be frustrated with less than 15 minutes a game. We would be great in a full court pressing 9 deep rotation, but K has never employed such a system. He picks his best 7 players and rides them with an eighth ready to step up if something happens. 2 of Marshall, Amile, Andre, and Alex will likely not see the floor in meaningful games. It's a tough thing to manage this and maintain chemistry.

We have great potential, and K 'could' radically change his approach considering the unique makeup of this team, but it would be unprecedented. Should be fascinating to watch. These seniors will be missed for sure. Hopefully some leaders really step into new roles (Quinn ideally!).

Bold prediction: Thornton as sole captain, Quinn likely added as captain part way like Seth this year.
More likely: Thornton and Quinn will be captains, Hairston is the only other guy I'd consider a candidate but really an outside shot for him.

[gcashwell]

I feel pretty good about the 5 spot next year.

Hairston is very strong defensively.
Amile can help because he is a very good rebounder and has a knack when working down low. I expect him to put on some size.

[Bluealum]

We will have depth, athleticism, quickness, and talent at the 1-4 spots on the floor. The only question is whether we can do enough from the 5 spot. If we can, we'll be able to compete with anyone in the country.

Glad this thread has already started. Easier to transition to the long basketball hiatus by thinking about next year.

I thought our team (for a Duke team) was undervalued by the media this year. Next year I feel it will be the opposite. We will have loads of talent but I wonder about leadership and chemistry.

Who are the captains? Thornton for sure, but he likely won't be a starting captain. Cook certainly has a lot of development to do to assume that mantle. He has all the talent, but is a very emotional young man that needs time to mature, should be great as a senior captain, but not sure about next year.

Hairston would make two non-starting captains, not sure if he has the personality for being a bench captain the way Tyler does. Everyone else just has too little time in the system or in Andre's case, no continuity.

I am hoping no one transfers, but all those kids are looking at the same things we are. Quin, Tyler, Rodney, Rasheed, and Jabari will all 'expect' to play at least 25 minutes a game. Hairston as a senior will surely see 15 minutes a game. That leaves 60 minutes (at best) for

Marshall
Amile
Andre
Alex
Semi
Matt

Even if Semi and Matt get virtually zero minutes, I would think that Marshall, Amile, Andre, and Alex would all be frustrated with less than 15 minutes a game. We would be great in a full court pressing 10 deep rotation, but K has never employed such a system. He picks his best 7 players and rides them with an eighth ready to step up if something happens. 2 of Marshall, Amile, Andre, and Alex will likely not see the floor in meaningful games. It's a tough thing to manage this and maintain chemistry.

We have great potential, and K 'could' radically change his approach considering the unique makeup of this team, but it would be unprecedented. Should be fascinating to watch. These seniors will be missed for sure. Hopefully some leaders really step into new roles (Quinn ideally!).

[Jarhead]

It pleases me that tis thread has come up. It gives Mrs. Jarhead and me a chance to reset for next season. Baseball is starting, but the Mrs. has no interest in MLB. I guess she'll have to concentrate on MahJong until next basketball season. She accepts my assurances that it will be potentially spectacular. My time will be spent more on golf than anything else, but I'll watch the Braves as much as I can. May even drive down to Atlanta to see a few games. That, followed by Duke football and the Redskins, will keep me well occupied until the next Duke basketball team steps onto the court. So thanks to Coach K's boys for a pretty good season, and best wishes to the seniors. The Mrs. will miss them all. GTHC, and a tentative welcome to the ACC for Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse next season. Oh, yeah, farewell to Chris Collins, and best of luck on his new endeavors at Northwestern.

[turnandburn55]

Wouldn't be surprised to see it go like 2008 or 2009, where Lance Thomas started at center while occassionally being spelled by Zoubek.

I think we'll platoon Amile, Hairston, and Marshall at the 5 most of the year. I really hope that Marshall can step in as a starter, but given his near-total lack of PT this year, it would be an improvement for him to be serviceable at all.

My wish list for 2013-2014:

Rasheed Sulaimon watches the Kevin Durant/Dwayne Wade Gatorade commercial.
Jabari Parker is everything he was advertised to be.
Rodney Hood can fill in as both a "stretch forward" and as a disruptive presence on defense
Quinn Cook becomes a more consistent penetrator and decision maker at quarterback
Amile Jefferson puts on some muscle and is ready to take a beating at the 5
Josh Hairston stops fouling and taking 18-foot jump shots
Andre Dawkins accepts his role as a 3-point shooting specialist/instant offense, and continues to light it up at opportune times.
Marshall Plumlee is able to contribute 10-15 meaningful minutes at center a game.
Tyler Thornton keeps leading in all the little ways, and continues to uncannily make the right play at the right time all the way to the championship

Anything out of Murphy, Jones, or Oyelege will be a pleasant surprise, IMO.

[lotusland]

Curry and Ryan out, Parker and Hood in... more athletic. Marshall is less athletic than Mason, true, but it seems like a net gain.

you're kidding right? net loss and not even close. We had 3 great seniors this year. There absolutely no way 3 players who've either never or barely played a minute for duke will exceed what Mason, Seth and Ryan provided when healthy this year.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

you're kidding right? net loss and not even close. We had 3 great seniors this year. There absolutely no way 3 players who've either never or barely played a minute for duke will exceed what Mason, Seth and Ryan provided when healthy this year.

I think he was talking about pure athleticism, not necessarily skill.

[mgtr]

After watching Siva and Smith, I think we need to go hard after Nicky Flash!

[sporthenry]

It would be nice to see Duke press a bit. Can't remember the last time but I feel like Duke used to press at least a bit. I agree we should be more athletic on the wings. We return our two best wing defenders and I think we'll see a Duke of old pushing the pace and that should open some minutes up.

[Duke76]

Wouldn't be surprised to see it go like 2008 or 2009, where Lance Thomas started at center while occassionally being spelled by Zoubek.

I think we'll platoon Amile, Hairston, and Marshall at the 5 most of the year. I really hope that Marshall can step in as a starter, but given his near-total lack of PT this year, it would be an improvement for him to be serviceable at all.

My wish list for 2013-2014:

Rasheed Sulaimon watches the Kevin Durant/Dwayne Wade Gatorade commercial.
Jabari Parker is everything he was advertised to be.
Rodney Hood can fill in as both a "stretch forward" and as a disruptive presence on defense
Quinn Cook becomes a more consistent penetrator and decision maker at quarterback
Amile Jefferson puts on some muscle and is ready to take a beating at the 5
Josh Hairston stops fouling and taking 18-foot jump shots
Andre Dawkins accepts his role as a 3-point shooting specialist/instant offense, and continues to light it up at opportune times.
Marshall Plumlee is able to contribute 10-15 meaningful minutes at center a game.
Tyler Thornton keeps leading in all the little ways, and continues to uncannily make the right play at the right time all the way to the championship

Anything out of Murphy, Jones, or Oyelege will be a pleasant surprise, IMO.

how about marshall making the same dramatic improvement in free throw shooting that Mason did this year although it may need to even more so as I never saw him make one and probably had 10 or so chances....and that he develops an inside game like Mason over the summer as well.....Nate and Wojo got a lot of work to do

[BobbyFan]

In losing Seth, Mason, and Ryan, we're losing a big chunk of production. We'll miss Ryan and Seth in particular for allowing us to have tremendous spacing on offense. Our team was better than the sum of parts this year; next year, we may be more talented, but some of that is overlapping.

I'm obviously excited about the players we have coming in next year, but it's going to be critical next year to see how much progression our Cook and Sulaimon make as our returning backcourt. I'm expecting big things on that end.

As for our starting center, my early money is on Amile. Offensively, it would make for a very potent starting 5.

[Acymetric]

In losing Seth, Mason, and Ryan, we're losing a big chunk of production. We'll miss Ryan and Seth in particular for allowing us to have tremendous spacing on offense. Our team was better than the sum of parts this year; next year, we may be more talented, but some of that is overlapping.

I'm obviously excited about the players we have coming in next year, but it's going to be critical next year to see how much progression our Cook and Sulaimon make as our returning backcourt. I'm expecting big things on that end.

As for our starting center, my early money is on Amile. Offensively, it would make for a very potent starting 5.

I think Cook will be very interesting to watch next year. This year was his first as full time, healthy starter, and his role was to set up the offense for established guys in Mason, Seth, and (when healthy) Ryan. Next year he and Rasheed (and to an extent Andre) are the only returning guys with an established offensive games, which I think will grant Cook more of an opportunity to shape the offense as the new players in the rotation grow into their offensive games. Could be a very fun team to watch if they get it together. Center is certainly a question but I think we may have a few good answers and I don't think we'll really know until the season gets started what its going to be.

[dyedwab]

1) The most important fact is that players get better year to year. We lose a lot that is not replaceable, but the players we have will also improve.

2) The most important improvement, imho, will be Quinn and Rasheed's assumption of the leadership roles on the court. The last two games have made me think of Rasheed as the next potentially great leader in the mold of Nolan, Shane, Carawell, etc. His clutch play down the stretch against MSU, as well as his reaction after the Louisville game, suggest to me that he will be the guy who becomes the emotional center of next year's team. With Quinn, its the Bobby Hurley issue - he clearly took over the point guard position this year - next year he has to use that to control the team

3) I want next year's team to enjoy playing defense. This team could play a very high level of defense, but that wasn't this team's identity. I want a team that wants to shut you down and thrives on it.

4) I'm really looking forward to Rodney Hood playing next year

[Kedsy]

I also hope that we have a stretch 4 emerging in the likes of Kelly, on paper this should be Murphy but he did not show much this year especially in regards to defense.

As others have said, next year's stretch four is Jabari Parker.


Hairston as a senior will surely see 15 minutes a game.

I wouldn't be so sure. This depends in very large part on how ready some of the others are to contribute. Josh won't be handed the minutes. He'll have to compete for them just like everybody else.


How K and staff figure out how to fill the "5" spot will determine how far next year's team will go.

Presumably, Coach K will play the options that give the team its best chance to win. Personally, I don't think it will determine how far the team will go or much of anything else. With all the offense we have at the other four spots, all our C has to do is defend and rebound. The only way it affects anything is if we don't have anybody who can do those two things, which is possible but unlikely.


GTHC, and a tentative welcome to the ACC for Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse next season.

Louisville won't be joining the ACC until 2014-15. Next season, the new ACC teams will be Syracuse, Pitt, and Notre Dame.


Anything out of Murphy, Jones, or Oyelege will be a pleasant surprise, IMO.

It's "Ojeleye."


you're kidding right? net loss and not even close. We had 3 great seniors this year. There absolutely no way 3 players who've either never or barely played a minute for duke will exceed what Mason, Seth and Ryan provided when healthy this year.

Whether or not the straight trade of Mason, Seth, and Ryan for Jabari, Rodney, and whoever is a net gain or loss will not really determine whether next year's team will perform better or worse than this year's team. You need to factor in the off-season improvements of the other players, in this case especially Quinn, Rasheed, and Amile, but also possibly Andre, Marshall, and Alex. You have to factor in how next year's roster meshes on the offensive end of the floor, and how well the unit will be able to defend.

The answers to most of these questions are unclear at this point, but to get an accurate picture of how good next year's team will be, I think looking at what we lost is probably not a great way to evaluate it. We see it time and time again -- for example, from 2009 to 2010, we lost our two most athletic players (Gerald Henderson and Elliot Williams), plus a four year PG and a valuable glue-guy defender (Greg Paulus and Dave McClure), and brought in two big men who didn't play all that much (Mason and Ryan). Yet our 2010 team was significantly better than our 2009 team. From 2010 to 2011, we lost three incredible seniors who led our team to the national title, and brought in two low ranked recruits not expected to play very much (Tyler and Josh) and one great recruit (Kyrie, who had never played a minute for Duke, just like Jabari next year), and if Kyrie hadn't gotten hurt that team was probably much better than the 2010 team.

[Edouble]

you're kidding right? net loss and not even close. We had 3 great seniors this year. There absolutely no way 3 players who've either never or barely played a minute for duke will exceed what Mason, Seth and Ryan provided when healthy this year.

Yeah, as BlueDevilBrowns said, read through the original thread. It's an increase on athleticism. I referenced a comment from one of the first few posts in this thread.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

1) The most important fact is that players get better year to year. We lose a lot that is not replaceable, but the players we have will also improve.

2) The most important improvement, imho, will be Quinn and Rasheed's assumption of the leadership roles on the court. The last two games have made me think of Rasheed as the next potentially great leader in the mold of Nolan, Shane, Carawell, etc. His clutch play down the stretch against MSU, as well as his reaction after the Louisville game, suggest to me that he will be the guy who becomes the emotional center of next year's team. With Quinn, its the Bobby Hurley issue - he clearly took over the point guard position this year - next year he has to use that to control the team

3) I want next year's team to enjoy playing defense. This team could play a very high level of defense, but that wasn't this team's identity. I want a team that wants to shut you down and thrives on it.

4) I'm really looking forward to Rodney Hood playing next year

This is a good point. Rasheed is special, you can just see it in the way he carries himself. He oozes greatness. With a more consistent outside shot, he will be virtually unguardable next year.

[UrinalCake]

I could see Amile starting at center and playing a Chris Bosh-type role. The thing about the Miami Heat is that they basically force you to adjust your roster to adapt to them, because if you put a traditional center in there you'll get killed defensively. I'm thinking we'll have a similar mindset of playing a "small" lineup, and by that I mean a bunch of 6'8 guys, all of whom are capable enough scorers that the defense has to adjust and go small too. Defensively we'll switch like crazy, almost likely we're playing a matchup zone but of course I would never use that word to describe our defense 8-)

I've been hoping Marshall would have developed a little bit more by this point, but as of now he's still a pretty big unknown. I think it's unlikely he'll start and play starter minutes, at least at the beginning of the season. Also, Quinn has had a few rough games to finish the season and overall seems to have regressed from the beginning of the season. It has me just a little bit concerned, as we won't have the guard depth that we had this year. Hopefully Quinn will have a great offseason and work on his passing, as he won't be expected to score as much next year.

[Kedsy]

It has me just a little bit concerned, as we won't have the guard depth that we had this year.

We'll have Quinn, Tyler, Rasheed, Andre (hopefully), Rodney (who played some SG at Mississippi State), and Matt. That seems like a whole lot of guard depth to me. If necessary, I bet Rasheed will be able to play lead guard at least as well as Seth could this year.

[FerryFor50]

I could see Amile starting at center and playing a Chris Bosh-type role. The thing about the Miami Heat is that they basically force you to adjust your roster to adapt to them, because if you put a traditional center in there you'll get killed defensively. I'm thinking we'll have a similar mindset of playing a "small" lineup, and by that I mean a bunch of 6'8 guys, all of whom are capable enough scorers that the defense has to adjust and go small too. Defensively we'll switch like crazy, almost likely we're playing a matchup zone but of course I would never use that word to describe our defense 8-)

I've been hoping Marshall would have developed a little bit more by this point, but as of now he's still a pretty big unknown. I think it's unlikely he'll start and play starter minutes, at least at the beginning of the season. Also, Quinn has had a few rough games to finish the season and overall seems to have regressed from the beginning of the season. It has me just a little bit concerned, as we won't have the guard depth that we had this year. Hopefully Quinn will have a great offseason and work on his passing, as he won't be expected to score as much next year.

To play a Chris Bosh role, you need range out to the three point line, which Amile does not have yet. Bosh is a stretch 5. Amile is more of a hustle and drive player right now.

[_Gary]

Maybe I'm not remembering things correctly, but I thought that early in the year that Marshall was having a great pre-season and was something like the 6th or 7th best player on the team before his injury. Does anyone else remember that, or am I on something?

Obviously I'm bringing this up because if that was the case does it not give us at least a little more positive info in relationship to the 5 position next year?

[Kedsy]

To play a Chris Bosh role, you need range out to the three point line, which Amile does not have yet. Bosh is a stretch 5. Amile is more of a hustle and drive player right now.

Chris Bosh has made a grand total of 16 three-point shots this season, and is shooting around 26% from long distance. That's a huge improvement over last season when he made 6 threes all season (and shot 24% from threeland). I don't know that his outside shooting should define his role with the Heat. Duke won't have a LeBron or a D Wade either next season, but overall we'll have enough weapons on offense. The key is on defense, and I think the main point of comparing Amile to Bosh is Bosh isn't the biggest guy in the world to be guarding NBA centers every night, but he does it successfully enough for the Heat's other talent to prevail.


Maybe I'm not remembering things correctly, but I thought that early in the year that Marshall was having a great pre-season and was something like the 6th or 7th best player on the team before his injury. Does anyone else remember that, or am I on something?

Obviously I'm bringing this up because if that was the case does it not give us at least a little more positive info in relationship to the 5 position next year?

Yeah, Coach K said something along those lines after Marshall got hurt. K also said before the season that Alex Murphy could be a four year starter, which if true would have implied he should have gotten a lot more playing time this season. So I'm not sure how seriously we can take those sorts of declarations from Coach K, or put another way how these guys practice doesn't always translate into either playing time or success in the games.

[FerryFor50]

Chris Bosh has made a grand total of 16 three-point shots this season, and is shooting around 26% from long distance. That's a huge improvement over last season when he made 6 threes all season (and shot 24% from threeland). I don't know that his outside shooting should define his role with the Heat. Duke won't have a LeBron or a D Wade either next season, but overall we'll have enough weapons on offense. The key is on defense, and I think the main point of comparing Amile to Bosh is Bosh isn't the biggest guy in the world to be guarding NBA centers every night, but he does it successfully enough for the Heat's other talent to prevail.



Yeah, Coach K said something along those lines after Marshall got hurt. K also said before the season that Alex Murphy could be a four year starter, which if true would have implied he should have gotten a lot more playing time this season. So I'm not sure how seriously we can take those sorts of declarations from Coach K, or put another way how these guys practice doesn't always translate into either playing time or success in the games.

The NBA three point line is wayyyy farther out than in college. Bosh hits mid range jumpers with regularity, including those in range of a 3pt college shot.

Bosh shot nearly 50% from 3 his only year in college on 47 attempts. That's over 1 attempt per game. I'd say he can shoot it a bit...

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/georgia-tech/chris-bosh

I do agree that I'd love to see Chris Bosh type defense. But Bosh has 2 inches on Amile.

[JNort]

I have noticed a trend for every year on this board so far at the end of the season. Every year we talk about how deep we will be and how we can go 8 or 9 deep sometimes even more. However we all know that this is not true! No matter what K is going to play his top 7 guys and the other will only be asked to step up in case of an injury.

Cook, Thornton, Sheed, Parker are all super locks on PT. So who are the other 3?

My guess starting lineup:

Cook
Sheed
Hood
Parker
Amile

Bench:
Tyler
Josh


Outside shot of a lineup:
Cook
Tyler
Sheed
Hood
Parker

Bench:
Amile
Josh

[gumbomoop]

This is a good point. Rasheed is special, you can just see it in the way he carries himself. He oozes greatness. With a more consistent outside shot, he will be virtually unguardable next year.

Siva and Smith are close to unguardable, because each has a very, very strong handle, the single most important physical attribute for perimeter players. Both Quinn and Rasheed have good - but not yet great - handles. I do agree that Rasheed [Quinn, too, for that matter] can become special. If Rasheed improves his 3-bombs, that would be wonderful. But I hope he works really hard on his handle, for he can become truly special next year getting to the rim, and pulling up for the 15 foot jumper, if his handle is even better.

Although most of the talking heads saw Seth as little more than a great 3-bomber, his much improved handle allowed him both to create space for those long shots and, less noticed, to drive successfully, too.

Like to see Quinn's handle improve, so he gets into the lane for teardrops and dishes. Ditto for Andre, who is certainly a 3-point specialist, but who might with a better handle become a powerful driver.

[UrinalCake]

Chris Bosh has made a grand total of 16 three-point shots this season, and is shooting around 26% from long distance.... I don't know that his outside shooting should define his role with the Heat. Duke won't have a LeBron or a D Wade either next season, but overall we'll have enough weapons on offense. The key is on defense, and I think the main point of comparing Amile to Bosh is Bosh isn't the biggest guy in the world to be guarding NBA centers every night, but he does it successfully enough for the Heat's other talent to prevail.

Yeah, this was basically what I was trying to say - that if Amile can prove to be a consistent scorer, then the guy guarding him has to score as much as him or close to it. Bosh can score, and he can prevent a bigger guy from scoring, so that means the opponent can't play the bigger guy (such as Kendrick Perkins of OKC in the finals last year).

You could put Parker at the 5 and make the same argument. As long as he can score more than the other team's 5, then the other team has to adjust to us rather than vice versa. In that manner, I think we can get away without playing a traditional 5.

[Kedsy]

The NBA three point line is wayyyy farther out than in college. Bosh hits mid range jumpers with regularity, including those in range of a 3pt college shot.

Bosh shot nearly 50% from 3 his only year in college on 47 attempts. That's over 1 attempt per game. I'd say he can shoot it a bit...

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/georgia-tech/chris-bosh

I do agree that I'd love to see Chris Bosh type defense. But Bosh has 2 inches on Amile.

Well, Bosh didn't play a "Chris Bosh" role in college, he was a star at Georgia Tech. And whether Bosh can hit a college three isn't really relevant as we're comparing his NBA role with Amile's college role. And I don't have numbers in front of me but I bet on average NBA centers are more than two inches taller than college centers.

But none of that stuff really matters. I don't want to speak for the OP in this, but I think he was making the comparison to Chris Bosh to say we could play a thin, mobile PF at C and get away with it. And I think he's probably right.

[Kedsy]

I have noticed a trend for every year on this board so far at the end of the season. Every year we talk about how deep we will be and how we can go 8 or 9 deep sometimes even more. However we all know that this is not true! No matter what K is going to play his top 7 guys and the other will only be asked to step up in case of an injury.

Cook, Thornton, Sheed, Parker are all super locks on PT. So who are the other 3?

My guess starting lineup:

Cook
Sheed
Hood
Parker
Amile

Bench:
Tyler
Josh


Outside shot of a lineup:
Cook
Tyler
Sheed
Hood
Parker

Bench:
Amile
Josh

If Andre comes back, I'll be shocked if he doesn't play rotation minutes. There have been a few seasons where K goes 8 deep and I think next season will probably be one of them, especially if we have Andre.

Also, the Quinn, Tyler, Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari lineup is awfully small. We may play that lineup a little bit but I'll be surprised if that's our main lineup.

[UrinalCake]

Cook, Thornton, Sheed, Parker are all super locks on PT. So who are the other 3?

I think Hood starts (option 1 of your potential lineups). We've had small perimeters the past two years and had to work to overcome that, so I think Coach K will start the bigger lineup, more traditional lineup. Plus Thornton plays so well off the bench and we only have two pure point guards. Option 2 that you listed would basically be Tyler starting over Amile, pushing everyone "down" a spot, then not having a point guard to bring in off the bench, and that doesn't make as much sense to me.

If we do start Hood and Parker at the 4 and 5, then I could see Dawkins or Jones starting, or possibly Murphy, to go along with Quinn and Rasheed. Any of these options would require a significant jump relative to current expectations from those guys.

[Bojangles4Eva]

The team will be totally different. I see a lot of guys that can both shoot and create off the dribble among next year’s 1-4 starters (assuming Cook, Sheed, Hood, and Parker fill those roles). We will also be longer on defense than we have been in a few years. We know Sheed can guard at a high level, but what about Rodney, Jabari, and (on a consistent basis) Cook? As a few have pointed out, Cook is a lot like Hurley in terms of riding his emotions on the court, which is a blessing or a curse. How will he mold into more of a leadership role as an upper classmen?

The 5 spot is really interesting. Amile gives energy, length, some quickness, and a particular offensive skill set, but how much weight will he gain to compete with the Nix’s and Echenique’s of next year’s field? Josh has experience, toughness, weight, a limited offensive skill set (though can show flashes of very solid play), is excellent at drawing charges, but height, fouls, and turnovers are still big issues. Then there is Marshall, which I consider a wild card. Really did not show that he was ready at any point this season, but you can’t teach 7’ of athleticism. I hope he progresses in the off season.

From the bench we get solid minutes from Tyler, one of the possible 5’s, and Andre (so long as he returns). I think we know what we get from Tyler, but if he keeps on his trajectory over the last 3 years I see him as the perimeter bench player with the most minutes. K is high on him, has always been high on him, and if he can consistently do what he does best, he is a very valuable player. If Andre is back he could get a lot or a little minutes depending on how hot/cold he is in a night. Alex, Semi, or Matt may get some good burn if we get any injuries at the 2-4 and/or Dawkins does not return (knock on wood). Otherwise, like Marshall, they may see little to no minutes.

Our team has a very high ceiling on paper, but lots of questions remain about what they will actually evolve into. All in all though, I feel very good about next year’s team.

[1999ballboy]

I expect that as our only true big man, Marshall starts the season out as our starting center. I predict that the lineup will change a couple of times before conference play begins, though, and unless he improves dramatically, I expect that one of our 6'8-ish guys will take Marshall's spot at the 5.

I think our big man situation will be a lot like late '97 after Newton was benched, or mid '98 when Brand was injured. During those periods, Carrawell, Battier, or McLeod would start in the 5 spot. We still had Domzalski and Burgess in '98, but it was deemed more important to have our 5 best players on the floor than it was a start a prototypical big man at all costs.

Come ACC play, I'd expect our starting 5 to be something like Cook/Sulaimon/Hood/Parker/Jefferson, with Thornton, Dawkins and Hairston in the regular rotation as well. I think Jones, Ojeleye, Murphy, and MP3 will all have to earn minutes, but they'll have plenty of chances to.

Despite being smaller underneath, I still think we could go with a 3-guard lineup a good chunk of the time. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cook/Thornton/Sulaimon starting some games all together.

[Dukeface88]

If Andre comes back, I'll be shocked if he doesn't play rotation minutes. There have been a few seasons where K goes 8 deep and I think next season will probably be one of them, especially if we have Andre.

Also, the Quinn, Tyler, Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari lineup is awfully small. We may play that lineup a little bit but I'll be surprised if that's our main lineup.

I'd actually say K averages closer to 8 than 7, but it depends on where you put the cutoff for a "rotation" player. If you put the cutoff at 8 MPG, we've had 3 seasons each going 8 deep, four going 7, twice going 9 and once 10(!). If you put it at 10 instead, you only get 4 seasons of 8 deep, six going 7 and one going 9. I think the former is more accurate - I'd say that King, McClure and Zoubs in 2007-2008 and Tyler Thornton in 2010-2011 should be considered part of the rotation, but the point is at least debateable.

[MaxAMillion]

I think next year's team will be worse. I don't think you lose three key seniors and not have it negatively impact the team. I don't think the interiornmdefense will be very good (not sure how one can assume that Parker will be a good defender as a freshman). I expect Hairston to be the starting center next year and that will be a problem.

[CDu]

Coach K did at one point in time press. When I was in school (the Battier years), we would at times throw on a full-court press with Battier on the inbounds. There were times when teams couldn't even get the ball across half court for multiple possessions. It was awesome.

Maybe with next year's length and athleticism we'll see a return of the press. It has been a LONG time since we pressed, so I certainly won't say it's a likely scenario. But it would be a welcome change to see us institute periodic pressing into our defensive strategy.

[miramar]

Maybe I'm not remembering things correctly, but I thought that early in the year that Marshall was having a great pre-season and was something like the 6th or 7th best player on the team before his injury. Does anyone else remember that, or am I on something?

Obviously I'm bringing this up because if that was the case does it not give us at least a little more positive info in relationship to the 5 position next year?

There was definitely something about the coaches raving about his athleticism when he missed the first few games, but that didn't seem to translate into productive minutes when he came back. Nonetheless, he will be in his third year in Durham and I'm sure he'll make a positive contribution. With Josh continuing to give the team solid minutes, I think the 5 position will be fine.

Considering that 1-4 will likely be Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, and Parker, we should have an outstanding starting five, with a loaded bench to boot (Andre, Thorton, Hairston, Jefferson, Murphy, etc.).

Can't wait for November to roll around.

[DukeDevil]

Can we generate a fundraiser to get Amile a GNC gift card for a few tubs of weight gainer and protein powder?

[CDu]

There was definitely something about the coaches raving about his athleticism when he missed the first few games, but that didn't seem to translate into productive minutes when he came back. Nonetheless, he will be in his third year in Durham and I'm sure he'll make a positive contribution. With Josh continuing to give the team solid minutes, I think the 5 position will be fine.

Considering that 1-4 will likely be Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, and Parker, we should have an outstanding starting five, with a loaded bench to boot (Andre, Thorton, Hairston, Jefferson, Murphy, etc.).

Can't wait for November to roll around.

As Kedsy noted (and as many others, including me, have noted over the past few months), I think we need to take the "Marshall was probably among our top 6 or 7 players" comment with a grain of salt. Coach K is always going to say positive things about our players. He's never going to downplay a player. Remember that he said Murphy would be the starter and play a big role for us this year (said this as late as preseason media day). So clearly either Coach K was simply talking up Marshall or Marshall's practice play didn't translate to game play, because his game play was clearly not up to ACC quality this year.

Hopefully Marshall, Jefferson, and Hairston all take BIG steps forward. In fact, here are my hopes for next year:

- Marshall and Hairston both make big steps up in their comfort/confidence on the offensive end and defensive rotations
- Jefferson adds about 15-20 pounds of good muscle (i.e., muscle that doesn't hurt his athleticism) and can become a consistent contributor at the 4 and 5 spots
- Cook takes the positives from this year and improves his overall floor game, learning to attack like Trey Burke did this year (I could definitely see a Trey Burke-like season from Cook next year)
- Sulaimon improves his ballhandling and adds strength and becomes as good as junior-year Nolan Smith
- Hood and Parker are as good as advertised at the forward spots
- Dawkins returns and adds ballhandling and defense to his terrific shooting skills
- In the event that Dawkins doesn't return, Jones, Murphy, or Ojeleye is able to step in and provide a perimeter shooting threat at SG/SF off the bench when needed
- Thornton continues to improve his PG play (he was very solid the last two games there) and provides a versatile 6th man backing up both guard spots

This team could be scarily good next year if even just a few of those things turn out to be true. This is sort of the quality that I could see from our lineup next year:
PG: Trey Burke
SG: junior year Nolan Smith
SF: Mike Dunleavy (6'8" forward with guard-like skills)
PF: Carmelo Anthony (the Syracuse version obviously)
C: ???

[CLW]

obviously a long way to go before the season starts but i think the most likely rotation will be:

Cook
Sheed
Hood
Parker
Jefferson

Bench: Thornton; Hairston and possibly Plumlee


Two things jump out at me as potential issues: #1 defensive rebounding; #2 can we defend a high ball screen.

I think #1 will likely be our biggest problem/worry b/c I think we can solve #2 by simply switching all screens with the more athletic/longer lineup.

[mgtr]

Some earlier post spurred me to look up the stats: Our three seniors provided 55% of our points this season. I was surprised it wasn't more, but both the guys and the points will be hard to replace.

[minns 10]

I wish Coach K would go a little deeper on the bench in the past and i think he needs to next season with all the talent on the roster that it is ok to play more than 6 guys. Murphy and Jefferson should have gotten more minutes this season, and i wouldnt be surprised if they are contemplating transferring(and i wouldnt blame them).

With than being said, this is the rotation i would like to see next year


PG. Quinn, Thornton
SG. Sheed, Dawkins,
SF Hood. Murphy
PF Parker, Jefferson
C Hairston, Jefferson

A solid 9 man rotation, with a couple freshmen(jones and semi) who can.should push for backup minutes.

[MCFinARL]

There was definitely something about the coaches raving about his athleticism when he missed the first few games, but that didn't seem to translate into productive minutes when he came back. Nonetheless, he will be in his third year in Durham and I'm sure he'll make a positive contribution. With Josh continuing to give the team solid minutes, I think the 5 position will be fine.

Considering that 1-4 will likely be Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, and Parker, we should have an outstanding starting five, with a loaded bench to boot (Andre, Thorton, Hairston, Jefferson, Murphy, etc.).

Can't wait for November to roll around.

Kedsy, I'll save you the trouble. It's Thornton, not Thorton.

Very interested in the range of thoughts in this thread. It's really hard to predict what the season will be like because it depends so much on intangibles--since two players who are generally projected to be likely starters, Parker and Hood, have never played a minute in a game for Duke. How well the mix of new and more experienced players can jell into a unit will be key.

What excites me, though, is that it seems likely Duke will be fun to watch, whether or not we get the results we would like in terms of victories. Lots of talent and athleticism, along with the savvy, if less athletic, play of a senior Tyler Thornton.

[BlueDevilCorvette!]

Curry and Ryan out, Parker and Hood in... more athletic. Marshall is less athletic than Mason, true, but it seems like a net gain.

Yep, exactly! However, Marshall may surprise a few folks with his scoring ability but essentially Duke needs him to be a strong rebounder and defensive presence. This team oozes athletic ability across the board.

[MarkD83]

I have noticed a trend for every year on this board so far at the end of the season. Every year we talk about how deep we will be and how we can go 8 or 9 deep sometimes even more. However we all know that this is not true! No matter what K is going to play his top 7 guys and the other will only be asked to step up in case of an injury.

Cook, Thornton, Sheed, Parker are all super locks on PT. So who are the other 3?

My guess starting lineup:

Cook
Sheed
Hood
Parker
Amile

Bench:
Tyler
Josh


Outside shot of a lineup:
Cook
Tyler
Sheed
Hood
Parker

Bench:
Amile
Josh

You are correct about the shorter bench that Coach K uses, but he also has a tendency to play a 3 guard line up so he needs an additional guard to sub-in.

[davekay1971]

Expect alot of minutes from Thorton next year. He's just got that mojo that Shashefski loves. Same kind of mojo that Sheyer and Reddick had. And Greg Zoubek, and also Greg Zoubek, if you remember those guys from our 1991 and 2010 championship teams, respectively.

Anyway, agreed with some of the consensus I'm seeing about the 5 spot. If Marshall develops well, he'll get a lot of minutes as our only true center on the team. But Amile and Josh are probably more likely, at this point, to get the bulk of the low post minutes. I would absolutely expect Jefferson to come back next season much, much stronger. Amile could be a beast for us next year. If we do see a lot of time with Amile as our 5, Parker as our 4, and Rodney as our 3...we're going to be an insanely athletic team that will want to push it up and down the floor. We'd be vulnerable to teams that are able to slow it down into a halfcourt setting...but only if those teams can prevent lane penetration while also guarding beyond the 3 point line.

I do hope that Marshall develops well. I got spoiled this year watching Mason play the low post. I'd like to see some more of that! But, even if Marshall isn't ready to become that offensive option yet, we're going to score lots of points next season.

[Lauderdevil]

It's not Coach K's style, but I'd love to see a 40 Minutes of Hell type game -- running all the time. This team will have the depth to do that (reprise of the Blue Team?), and wear out opponents that don't have that depth. Other than Marshall, everyone on this team can run.

[Mike Corey]

It's not Coach K's style, but I'd love to see a 40 Minutes of Hell type game -- running all the time. This team will have the depth to do that (reprise of the Blue Team?), and wear out opponents that don't have that depth. Other than Marshall, everyone on this team can run.

I completely agree with this, though I think Hairston would need to improve his conditioning to keep up with that pace, as well.

We're going to look so very different next season. I suspect that Coach K is energized--or will be, in a day or two--about the prospect of redeveloping his offense and defense once again to fit a very different team.

Our center need not be a scorer; our center needs to be a defender and a rebounder and a finisher.

I loved watching this team in 2012-13; Duke will be reinvented all over again in 2013-14. Can't wait to see what the GOAT comes up with.

[MCFinARL]

Expect alot of minutes from Thorton next year. He's just got that mojo that Shashefski loves. Same kind of mojo that Sheyer and Reddick had. And Greg Zoubek, and also Greg Zoubek, if you remember those guys from our 1991 and 2010 championship teams, respectively.



Thanks for mentioning Greg Zoubek, one of my all time favorite players (both times). ;)

[hurleyfor3]

Thanks for mentioning Greg Zoubek, one of my all time favorite players (both times). ;)

Only player to appear in five Final Fours. Good luck breaking THAT record!

[roywhite]

I wish Coach K would go a little deeper on the bench in the past and i think he needs to next season with all the talent on the roster that it is ok to play more than 6 guys. Murphy and Jefferson should have gotten more minutes this season, and i wouldnt be surprised if they are contemplating transferring(and i wouldnt blame them).

With than being said, this is the rotation i would like to see next year


PG. Quinn, Thornton
SG. Sheed, Dawkins,
SF Hood. Murphy
PF Parker, Jefferson
C Hairston, Jefferson

A solid 9 man rotation, with a couple freshmen(jones and semi) who can.should push for backup minutes.

That's a pretty impressive group of talent. And to think that the freshmen mentioned as outside of the rotation...Matt Jones, and Semi, could both become very good college players at some point...wow.


I completely agree with this, though I think Hairston would need to improve his conditioning to keep up with that pace, as well.

We're going to look so very different next season. I suspect that Coach K is energized--or will be, in a day or two--about the prospect of redeveloping his offense and defense once again to fit a very different team.

Our center need not be a scorer; our center needs to be a defender and a rebounder and a finisher.

I loved watching this team in 2012-13; Duke will be reinvented all over again in 2013-14. Can't wait to see what the GOAT comes up with.

Yeah, new and perhaps better.

Fun to think about; and it eases the pain of seeing a great group of seniors depart.

[Newton_14]

Again, STOP THE SPECULATION/RUMOR MONGERING on if Andre wears a Duke uni next season. We will know when we know. Until then keep it out of the discussions. If you want to list him or not list him in your projected lineups thats fine. Just don't speculate on yes he will/no he won't return.

Thanks

[MChambers]

Only player to appear in five Final Fours. Good luck breaking THAT record!

Didn't he score the first points in the win over Kansas and the last point against Butler? Top that!

[Lauderdevil]

Thanks for mentioning Greg Zoubek, one of my all time favorite players (both times). ;)


Only player to appear in five Final Fours. Good luck breaking THAT record!

What I loved about Greg Zoubek was how he could play big or play small; block a shot or hit the three. Unbelievably versatile. And I'll always remember his reaction when the other team's desperation last shot missed in one of truly classic Final Four games.

[UrinalCake]

Other than Marshall, everyone on this team can run.

I've only seen Marshall play for a grand total of maybe ten minutes in his entire career, but if I had to venture a guess I'd say he can probably run the floor pretty well. I agree that I'd love to see some full-court press with as many athletic bodies as we'll have. We could theoretically field a team of Cook and four 6-8 guys that would be a terror on defense.

So what are everyone's expectations on Parker's contributions next year? I've heard him at one point called the next lebron, which is of course a wildly exaggerated notion that nobody expects him to actually meet. Honestly I'm kind of tempered in my expectations as I always am when it comes to freshmen, but if he really does have Carmelo Anthony-type ability and we can build the team around him, then that's pretty exciting to think about.

[roywhite]

What I loved about Greg Zoubek was how he could play big or play small; block a shot or hit the three. Unbelievably versatile. And I'll always remember his reaction when the other team's desperation last shot missed in one of truly classic Final Four games.

Amazingly tough, too. Certainly no cream-puff

(a little humor eases the season-ending pain).

[Newton_14]

I, like you guys, am looking forward to next season. Will be counting the days until summer league time at Central, and then the Oct 15th CTC. One caution, don't sleep on Alex Murphy. I think next season is the year we finally see Alex in the normal rotation. He only lacks in confidence, and to me, he showed this season he can defend the 4 spot really well. Most of his defensive break downs came when guarding smaller, quicker, wings.

I do believe K will go uptempo on both offense and defense, and we will finally, finally, yes finally!!!, see the return of the full court press in home games, and other select) games, that K used so often in the Battier years. Like CDu opined, that was so much fun to watch. We won a lot of home games right out of the gate forcing turnovers in the backcourt that led to easy scores and large leads early in games.

For captains, it will be Tyler for sure, and possibly Rasheed. Josh is a possibility as well. I agree one of the underclassmen could earn a captain spot during the pre-ACC games.

We bring in 2 studs in Parker and Hood (he is that good), another possible impact player in Jones, and then there is Semi. I think with Semi, it could go either way. Not ready for D1 ball, or possible surprise who play's his way onto the court earlier than expected.

With Rasheed, Quinn, Amile, and Murphy, over the summer development and improvement could provide 4 really good players that can impact games.

Tyler will play the role of leader in a big way, from all 3 perimeter positions, and Josh will lead the bigs in practice, while also providing quality minutes at the 4 and 5 spots off the bench, bringing both good position defense, and toughness.

With Marshall, I think it is a case of needing more maturity and calming of nerves. The talent is there, but the phrase "the game needs to slow down for him" applies here. In the "too amped up vein" the young Marshall reminds me a lot of the young Lance Thomas. Marshall needs to learn how to channel his very high level of energy into positive play instead of it leading to mistakes. For example, he has a much better shooting touch than he showed this year, both in the paint and at the line.

If returning players develop as they should, and the frosh are as good as advertised, the team will be very strong next year. They will be super athletic which will translate hopefully to great defense on the perimeter. The type of team that could put lots of pressure on the opponent on both offense and defense.

Looking forward to seeing what K does with this group.

[1 24 90]

My only wish for next year is to avoid any key injuries. Duke has now paid back the basketball gods for the 2010 title over the last 3 seasons with key injuries that affected parts of each season and prevented the team from achieving all that they might have. Enough already. Go Duke!

[JNort]

So staring lineup anyone?
Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, Plumlee?
With Dawkins, Thorton, Jefferson, Hairston, Murphy and Jones are vying for minutes. Not to mention Semi.

Jones and Semi will not be vying for mins. The interesting battle for pt will be between Murphy, Hairston, Plumlee and Amile.

[Monmouth77]

I completely agree with this, though I think Hairston would need to improve his conditioning to keep up with that pace, as well.

We're going to look so very different next season. I suspect that Coach K is energized--or will be, in a day or two--about the prospect of redeveloping his offense and defense once again to fit a very different team.

Our center need not be a scorer; our center needs to be a defender and a rebounder and a finisher.

I loved watching this team in 2012-13; Duke will be reinvented all over again in 2013-14. Can't wait to see what the GOAT comes up with.

I agree with this. And do you know who would be the best possible center on next year's team? Mason Plumlee. He was born to run and rebound and finish and will be doing it in the NBA next year, I expect to pretty good effect.

On the bright side, when we are imposing our will on other teams next year, Amile should be able to do a lot of those things too. And when we have to play a half court game, we do have a 7 footer to run out there.

Nice to be a Duke fan.

[Saratoga2]

To me, the 2014 squad will be our most talented overall since 2004. The only question mark is the Center position. We're at least 2 deep at every other position.

How K and staff figure out how to fill the "5" spot will determine how far next year's team will go.

Cook answered the PG question this year and next year Hood will fill the SF void since Singler left. Sheed and Jabari are locked into the 2 and 4 spots. So that leaves Hairston, MP3, and Amile to fight for the C spot. I could envision putting Amile at the 5 and running an ultra-hi-tempo offense with Jefferson playing the Casey Sanders 2001 role. Cook and Sheed seem more comfortable on the break than in the half-court anyway.

However, while we will be better next year, I think college basketball as a whole will be much better next year. UNC will be back(especially if they get Wiggins), as will UK, MSU, Michigan, OSU, and maybe Louisville, IU, and Syracuse.

This was a down year so while we may be better next year than this year, the journey may be more perilous, too.

I have a little different view of where we will be next year. First of all, when are any freshman locks for PT. Jabari will probably be effective, but he has to show he can play defense to get starter minutes. Matt and Semi have even tougher things to overcome since there are good players ahead of them will solid experience.

As far as PG is concerned, we have a more experienced Quinn and Tyler probably splitting time. Both are on the small side and neither showed the ability to penetrate against top competition. They both play defense fairly well but Tyler has been plagued with making too many and sometimes foolish. Coach K may well play them at the same time in a game, but I hope that isn't the case with so many options.

Rasheed is quick and long and handles the ball well and also is a very good defender. I would be very surprised if he isn't the starter at the SG position. Backing him up will be Matt Jones in my opinion. While he is not probably as athletic as Rasheed, he does have good ball handling skills and is a very good shooter. Possibly Andre willalso share some time at SG and SF.

From what I haave heard about Rodney Hood, he is really an accomplished player with size, length, athletic ability and a varied ofensive game including a very good 3 point shot. At 6'7" he would give very little away defensively to other SF he would face. I see Andre also taking time at the SF along with Alex.

We are all thinking Jabari has the overall game to start at PF as a freshman. I hope that is true but we do have backups with Alex, Amile and Semi all pushing him for the slot. We don't know about Semi as yet, but the others are probably not as capable on both offense and defense.

Like others on the board, I don't see a very effective option at C. Marshall has not shown a lot of growth this year and is slower and not as athletic as Mason (who is?). Josh is neither large enough or athletic enough to be more than a fill in. Our other hope is to find a transfer but that is a real long shot. So we still have the option of having Amile bulk up and use his length and athleticism make up for his lack of size. It is hard to imagine any of our options matching up against the likes o Len or McGary for instance.

So we will go into the season without a optimum option at C and reliant on a freshman or scoring from the PF slot. We should be very good and very deep on the perimeter. Will we be able to slow down the dribble penetration against teams with speedy and large guards? Remains to be seen. Another jurney will unfold and we hope to all be here to discuss it.

[COYS]

I, like you guys, am looking forward to next season. Will be counting the days until summer league time at Central, and then the Oct 15th CTC. One caution, don't sleep on Alex Murphy. I think next season is the year we finally see Alex in the normal rotation. He only lacks in confidence, and to me, he showed this season he can defend the 4 spot really well. Most of his defensive break downs came when guarding smaller, quicker, wings.

I do believe K will go uptempo on both offense and defense, and we will finally, finally, yes finally!!!, see the return of the full court press in home games, and other select) games, that K used so often in the Battier years. Like CDu opined, that was so much fun to watch. We won a lot of home games right out of the gate forcing turnovers in the backcourt that led to easy scores and large leads early in games.



Great post all the way around. I wanted to highlight these two parts, though, because I definitely think you're right on, here. Alex was the projected starter at the beginning of the season, starting the first two exhibition games while Seth was out. He had some good games and some impressive moments in games in which he otherwise was unremarkable. Over all though, I think his playing time for next year comes down to whether or not he can match Josh's defensive contributions while also providing more offense. Josh was simply a better defender this year. He fit better in the rotation while Ryan was healthy and provided toughness while Ryan was injured.

Next year, however, I really do think that Alex has a chance to push for back up minutes that have previously gone to Josh. If, as you reasonably speculate here, that with a team that is small at the 5 but generally well-sized and athletic at the 1-4 spots K unitizes more full court pressure or half court trapping, Alex, with his mobility, would seem to be a better fit than Josh, assuming he can translate his ability from practice to games. In addition, Alex offers far more upside on offense than Josh can provide. Finally, Alex will presumably improve in half court defensive sets, as well. I'm not trying to undersell Josh, by any means. He will undoubtedly improve, as well. However, it's not as if Josh's spot in the rotation is guaranteed. Amile claimed the starting PF spot for a spell this season while Ryan was injured, making him number 2 on the PF depth chart and first big off the bench if Ryan had been healthy. He didn't hold that spot, obviously, but it just shows that Josh was not far and away the obvious choice for the first backup post player this season. I tend to agree with those who believe that Amile is probably the leading candidate to start at center, which means that the role of first big off the bench is likely to be a battle between Marshall, Alex, and Josh. Josh might be the leading candidate to claim that role, but I don't think it is guaranteed. It did appear to me that Marshall still has a ways to go, so I might be discounting him too much based on his short-lived showings this season, but I would not be surprised if the more uptempo offensive and defensive schemes combined with another offseason for improvement helps boost Alex into that role.

I could even see Alex and Tyler coming in at the same time with Tyler giving Quinn a break and Alex giving Rodney or even Rasheed a break, leaving us with a great pressing lineup of Tyler, Rodney, Jabari, Alex, and Amile.

[_Gary]

Well, I'm going to go against the tide and say that Marshall will indeed be our starting Center and actually play well for us. Something just tells me he's better than many are giving him credit for. Sure, it's absolutely possible that Coach K was using hyperbole when he described Marshall as our 6th man before going down with the foot injury in preseason, but I don't think so. I believe we'll play uptempo and Marshall will be the perfect fit on defense when we press (and I do think we'll do that next year with our abundance of athletic swing players).

Expecting a very, very good team for the 2013/2014 campaign.

[jipops]

The best attribute of this team may most likely be in the backcourt. With a potential backcourt rotation of Cook, Thornton, Sulaimon, and Dawkins we may have the best one in the country, and scary good. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sheed ends up being our best player and plays the most minutes. At least 2 of the 4 mentioned are very defensive minded guards.

The frontcourt obviously has the most question marks and intrigue. I can see Parker having a Luol Deng type impact and being our best offensive option in the frontcourt. One question there is: will he be able to make the same kind of impact defensively that Luol did? Hood is said to be a stud and it certainly is nice to finally have that 6-8 option from the perimeter. Same question regarding him though: what kind of impact will he make defensively? It could be an interesting battle between him and Murphy for that position. I see Jefferson getting starting 5 spot, backed up by Hairston, simply because he is the most talented guy we have for it. He has shown to be effective within 10 feet and that is probably where he will be best used.

Guys seeing spot duty:
Marshall: We've only seen minute sample sizes yet from those it's hard to discern whether or not he is ready to be an ACC-level talent. I think K may use him at times as a defensive presence but he doesn't yet appear to offer much in the way of skill right now.
Matt Jones: With our potentially lethal back court he may struggle to get many minutes at all. He may wow in practices though.
Semi: Unless this kid truly has shot up to 6-8 or ends up being taller, I just don't see him getting much floor time, if at all. Our perimeter is already crowded and I feel like one of K's main priorities with this team is establish some defensive continuity. He's likely not going to take minutes away from Parker, Hood, and Murphy.

We'll obviously be real good but I think the question mark theme will be how good we are defensively. We lose a lot in the front court but we should be much, much better, bigger, and more experienced in the back court.

Rotation based on what little I know looks to me like:

Sheed
Cook
Thornton
Hood
Parker
Jefferson
Hairston
Murphy
Dawkins (if he's not there then it's a 8 man rotation)

Like another poster stated, if K doesn't use an 8-9 man rotation this time around, it will never, ever happen.

[Dave Duke76]

After watching Siva and Smith, I think we need to go hard after Nicky Flash!

Ha, ha !:D

[m g]

I expect Coach K to do what he always does: play his best guys. Just a few years ago, we were closing games with four guards and Singler at center. Unless Plumlee or Hairston take a big step forward from what they've demonstrated--which they might--on nights where matchups allow, we'll likely go pretty solid stretches with one of our guys in the neighborhood of 6'8, 210-230 pounds guarding the opposing team's biggest player. Those are Parker, Hood, Jefferson, and Murphy (assuming a little added bulk from the younger guys).

The fifth spot could basically go to anyone. If K wants to come out of the gate with a traditional center due to matchups, maybe Hairston (not tall, but 240lbs) or Plumlee would be the fifth starter. It's also very easy to make an argument that it would be Thornton, Dawkins, Jefferson, or even Murphy. Given that Coach K prefers to play his most talented players, my guess is that Plumlee and Hairston will be the odd men out. One of Dawkins, Jefferson, or Murphy could slide into that territory too, depending how deep Duke goes. Two or three guards and two or three 6'8 guys is not such a small lineup that K will feel forced to start Plumlee or Hairston--in all likelihood, they will only get that spot if they earn it as basketball players.

I did not read every word of every earlier post, but too many people are forgetting Murphy. I think he has a lot of promise and is a good candidate to make the leap we've seen so many players make before--he will be a major contributor before all is said and done. Particularly if he adds 10-15 pounds over his listed weight for this year (a realistic jump), he could get some court time as the nominal "center."

My expectations:

Very likely to start and play 25 or more mpg:
Cook
Sulaimon
Parker
Hood

Possible starters likely (but not guaranteed) to get 15 or more mpg:
Thornton
Dawkins
Murphy
Jefferson

Bigs who play mainly because of matchups, one may slip into the starting lineup but ceiling around 15 mpg:
Hairston
Plumlee

Likely to be good in the future but won't play much next year:
Ojeleye
Jones

[jipops]

Jones and Semi will not be vying for mins. The interesting battle for pt will be between Murphy, Hairston, Plumlee and Amile.

I feel like the most interesting pt battle could be between Murphy and Hood. Jabari most likely has his spot locked up with Murphy being another option there. Amile looks to be our most talented option at the 5 with Hairston as a logical experienced, 240lb backup. I haven't seen anything to convince me that Marshall will be a significant part of the rotation next season. I'm basing this all on assumption from what little I've seen but I don't think many of us really know much. He's tall and high energy, that's all we know. I could see K using him as a defensive presence in spot duty, but not much else.

[johnb]

Lots of excellent basketball teams lack an all-conference 6'10" center. Bilas played center for example, as did Koubek during one of our biggest wins. In 30 regular season games next year, we'll probably only face a half dozen teams with remarkable front court size. Against them, I'd guess we measure Hairston/Jefferson/Plumlee not so much in minutes as in fouls (15 total). We'll also count on our perimeter guys to harrass the opposing passers to prevent interior domination. If the perimeter guys are effective enough, they can keep themselves on the court, with a front line of, say, Parker/Hood along with 3 guards/wings. Anyway, I guess I'm saying that we may go 7-8 deep in any particular game, but there may be different odd-men-out depending on the time of the year, phase of the moon, and the opposing lineup.

I'd also not discount a steep improvement from Plumlee. His brothers improved significantly every year they were at Duke, and there is something to be said about how 7-foot-long neuronal linkages take longer to mature than 6 foot long ones. Further, MP3 was competing for PT primarily against his brother, who was in the national POY discussion until a month ago. The bar will be a lot lower, and he'll be a year older.

I'd also not bet against Matt and Semi getting PT early. They have looked pretty darn impressive and may stand out among even our players.

[Kedsy]

Some earlier post spurred me to look up the stats: Our three seniors provided 55% of our points this season. I was surprised it wasn't more, but both the guys and the points will be hard to replace.

Do you honestly think offense is going to be a problem next year? I don't think those points will be so hard to "replace" at all. We're going to be a very high scoring team next season. Defense, of course, is another issue, but I have high hopes there as well.

The one place where we may have trouble "replacing" the seniors' contributions will be in their experience and savvy, knowledge of how to win and what it means to be a Duke player. That shouldn't be overlooked or undersold and is very important. To me, that's the biggest question mark for next season.


Murphy and Jefferson should have gotten more minutes this season, and i wouldnt be surprised if they are contemplating transferring(and i wouldnt blame them).

I spoke to Amile in Philadelphia last weekend, and he seemed really happy with the way his season has turned out. I'd be absolutely shocked if he was contemplating anything like you suggest. And Alex has already redshirted so would have to petition the NCAA for an extra year. I think you're way off base here.


Other than Marshall, everyone on this team can run.

From what I've seen, Marshall can run very well. I'm not as sure about Josh, though.


That's a pretty impressive group of talent. And to think that the freshmen mentioned as outside of the rotation...Matt Jones, and Semi, could both become very good college players at some point...wow.

And the post about which you made this comment omitted Marshall from his list. We will have a very deep, very talented roster next season.


I have a little different view of where we will be next year. First of all, when are any freshman locks for PT. Jabari will probably be effective, but he has to show he can play defense to get starter minutes.

Here's the list of top five recruits at Duke over the past 15 years:

Elton Brand (injured, but started 18 of 21 healthy games; 23.5 mpg)
Jason Williams (34 starts; 34.0 mpg)
Luol Deng (32 starts; 31.1 mpg)
Josh McRoberts (31 starts; 24.5 mpg)
Kyle Singler (34 starts; 28.6 mpg)
Kyrie Irving (injured, but started 8 of 11 healthy games; 27.5 mpg)
Austin Rivers (33 starts; 33.2 mpg)

Obviously the past doesn't guarantee the future, but I'm very confident Jabari will start and get starter's minutes.

[MCFinARL]

Amazingly tough, too. Certainly no cream-puff

(a little humor eases the season-ending pain).

That was a sweet joke!

[jipops]

Elton Brand (injured, but started 18 of 21 healthy games; 23.5 mpg)


A little tangent here, amazing that Elton averaged 23 minutes as a freshman (11 fewer than Austin) but still had the kind of impact he had.

[dukelifer]

I expect Coach K to do what he always does: play his best guys. Just a few years ago, we were closing games with four guards and Singler at center. Unless Plumlee or Hairston take a big step forward from what they've demonstrated--which they might--on nights where matchups allow, we'll likely go pretty solid stretches with one of our guys in the neighborhood of 6'8, 210-230 pounds guarding the opposing team's biggest player. Those are Parker, Hood, Jefferson, and Murphy (assuming a little added bulk from the younger guys).

The fifth spot could basically go to anyone. If K wants to come out of the gate with a traditional center due to matchups, maybe Hairston (not tall, but 240lbs) or Plumlee would be the fifth starter. It's also very easy to make an argument that it would be Thornton, Dawkins, Jefferson, or even Murphy. Given that Coach K prefers to play his most talented players, my guess is that Plumlee and Hairston will be the odd men out. One of Dawkins, Jefferson, or Murphy could slide into that territory too, depending how deep Duke goes. Two or three guards and two or three 6'8 guys is not such a small lineup that K will feel forced to start Plumlee or Hairston--in all likelihood, they will only get that spot if they earn it as basketball players.

I did not read every word of every earlier post, but too many people are forgetting Murphy. I think he has a lot of promise and is a good candidate to make the leap we've seen so many players make before--he will be a major contributor before all is said and done. Particularly if he adds 10-15 pounds over his listed weight for this year (a realistic jump), he could get some court time as the nominal "center."

My expectations:

Very likely to start and play 25 or more mpg:
Cook
Sulaimon
Parker
Hood

Possible starters likely (but not guaranteed) to get 15 or more mpg:
Thornton
Dawkins
Murphy
Jefferson

Bigs who play mainly because of matchups, one may slip into the starting lineup but ceiling around 15 mpg:
Hairston
Plumlee

Likely to be good in the future but won't play much next year:
Ojeleye
Jones
I am basing this on watching just one game of his- but I think Jones will be a player for Duke. Hard to keep a great shooter off the court. Not sure what to expect from Ojeleye. Which ever kid plays better D will get more time. Duke practices will be wars.

[Channing]

I think Marshall will surprise a lot of folks. I remember seeing him play a little earlier in the season, where I thought he actually had the baseline for some good post moves, he just lacked the strength (although, admittedly, I thought the same thing about Zoubek).

Being 7 feet at age 18 is not easy. It takes a while, and a lot of hard work, for someone to grow into that body. See Jeff Withey as a perfect (if possibly extreme) example. A little closer to home, guys like Daniel Miller at GT and Alex Len at UMD both grew into their bodies with varying degrees of success almost over a summer.

Not that I expect it, but I wouldn't be surprised if Marshall is a 100% different player next year.

[Kedsy]

I feel like the most interesting pt battle could be between Murphy and Hood.

Rodney Hood was an All Freshman performer in the SEC in 2012. People (outside Duke) have been talking about him going pro after this coming season. If Alex improves to the point where he is able to challenge Rodney for playing time, we will be ridiculously talented.


One caution, don't sleep on Alex Murphy. I think next season is the year we finally see Alex in the normal rotation.

Who do you think he'll bump out of the rotation? Hard to see him playing ahead of Quinn, Rasheed, Tyler, Rodney, or Jabari, and realistically I'd expect Andre and Amile to be ahead of him as well, even if Alex makes the jump. And Josh is a senior with the bulk to back up center. And Marshall is a seven footer who may also make the jump. I expect Alex to possibly move into the 5 to 10 mpg tier, but it's hard to plug him into the rotation with what we know right now. Though having said that, how things change between now and then is difficult for anybody to predict. Maybe Coach K will really go 9 deep this time...

[johnb]

Lots of excellent basketball teams lack an all-conference 6'10" center. Bilas played center for example, as did Koubek during one of our biggest wins. In 30 regular season games next year, we'll probably only face a half dozen teams with remarkable front court size. Against them, I'd guess we measure Hairston/Jefferson/Plumlee not so much in minutes as in fouls (15 total). We'll also count on our perimeter guys to harrass the opposing passers to prevent interior domination. If the perimeter guys are effective enough, they can keep themselves on the court, with a front line of, say, Parker/Hood along with 3 guards/wings. Anyway, I guess I'm saying that we may go 7-8 deep in any particular game, but there may be different odd-men-out depending on the time of the year, phase of the moon, and the opposing lineup.

I'd also not discount a steep improvement from Plumlee. His brothers improved significantly every year they were at Duke, and there is something to be said about how 7-foot-long neuronal linkages take longer to mature than 6 foot long ones. Further, MP3 was competing for PT primarily against his brother, who was in the national POY discussion until a month ago. The bar will be lower next year, and he'll be a year older.

I'd also not bet against Matt and Semi getting PT early (I'm assuming Parker is a lock for 25+ minutes/game). They have looked pretty darn impressive and either/both could be stars.

I'd also not overlook the seniors; neither will probably start, but if they played a lot yesterday, they'll play a lot next year.

[Troublemaker]

Here's my first crack at rotation/minutes:

25 Jr Cook..........25 Sr Thornton
30 So Sheed...........................................{R s MattJ}
30 So Hood.........10 Sr Dawkins...............{Rs Semi}
30 Fr Jabari.........10 So Murph
25 So Amile.........15 Sr Hair.....................So MP3


So, obviously, I would redshirt Matt and Semi b/c they're just not going to get minutes as freshmen on this loaded team. Why waste a year of eligibility? Have them spend a year focusing on academics (possibly getting ahead there), getting used to Duke, the program, the team, and building their bodies for the following season (not that Semi needs much work there!).

Another thing to remember. Thornton and Hairston will experience the "Duke senior bump" whereby most Duke seniors improve dramaticaly heading into their senior year. Don't be surprised if Hairston hits that 18-footer reliably next year. Don't be shocked if Thornton is shooting 40% from three next season. The Duke senior bump. Count on it happening.

[Troublemaker]

PG: Trey Burke
SG: junior year Nolan Smith
SF: Mike Dunleavy (6'8" forward with guard-like skills)
PF: Carmelo Anthony (the Syracuse version obviously)
C: ???

I agree with you on three of four comparisons. I would agree that Jabari is a less-physical Carmelo, Hood is a less-lengthy Dunleavy (Rodney actually has short arms, but still, a 6'8" player with guard skills is sick.) I've always loved your Sheed = Nolan-minus-one-year comparisons and think it's spot on.

The one comparison I can not agree with is Cook = Burke. I just don't see it. Burke possesses special physical talents that have him projected as a lottery pick. Quinn doesn't have Burke's quickness. I'm not sure whom I'd compare Quinn to. A more in-shape Levance Fields?

[turnandburn55]

Thornton is already shooting 39.2% from three-point land.

I'm hard-pressed to think of a lot of players who average fewer than 5ppg for three years making more than a modest jump as seniors. Best case scenario I see for Thornton and Hairston are Dockery/McClure-type senior years.

[Troublemaker]

Thornton is already shooting 39.2% from three-point land.


True. I can see Thornton shooting 40% from three on 4 attempts a game instead of the 2 attempts a game he's taking now. Something like that where he's more of a shooting threat next season that teams can't afford to leave.

[Cameron]

Andre will play sixth-man minutes. That is locked up, in my view. He is going to be one of the greatest shooters, if the not greatest, in the nation next season. Outside of Austin Rivers and perhaps Seth Curry, Andre has been the most explosive offensive player at Duke since Kyrie, Kyle and Nolan left. Andre is instaneous offense, was a key member of a national championship run, will be a fifth-year senior and will play sixth-man minutes.

[BlueDevilCorvette!]

I wouldn't underestimate Semi. I know a lot of folks think he play against inferior competition but to average 40 points, is 40 points you had to score either way you look at it. I bet the majority of those shots were made while he was being double-up but still made the shots. I'm gonna go out on a limb with Semi and say he is going to be instant offense off the bench and in the words of the great Uncle Drew..."just get buckets"!

[roywhite]

I wouldn't underestimate Semi. I know a lot of folks think he play against inferior competition but to average 40 points, is 40 points you had to score either way you look at it. I bet the majority of those shots were made while he was being double-up but still made the shots. I'm gonna go out on a limb with Semi and say he is going to be instant offense off the bench and in the words of the great Uncle Drew..."just get buckets"!

Scoring off the bench could be a big plus for 2013-14 vs this last season. Could be Semi, or Andre, or Matt Jones, maybe Alex Murphy, but it will be nice to have an offensive pick-up come in when a starter goes out. We didn't have it this last year, as demonstrated by the very high percentage of total scoring that came from the starters.

[Bluealum]

So I have a legitimate question, tempted to create a separate thread but decided against it.

If you could take our non-starter 7 players, (however you choose to define the starters - Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari, Amile for example) with our coach, and compare them to the full rosters of all the other 2013-2014 ACC teams. Which teams would you actually pick to finish ahead of our bench player 7?

That could be a team of:

Tyler Thornton: PG
Andre Dawkins: SG
Alex Murphy: SF
Josh Hairston: PF
Marshall Plumlee: C

Bench: Semi and Matt

I can't think of a no-brainer roster better than that. The starting 5 is seriously experienced, skilled, and has plenty of size. The bench has serious talent.

Really think about it? Syracuse and UNC...maybe? It's just staggering the talent, experience, and depth we will have on the bench. But we can only play 5 at a time, it's just a shame really.

[BD80]

you're kidding right? net loss and not even close. We had 3 great seniors this year. There absolutely no way 3 players who've either never or barely played a minute for duke will exceed what Mason, Seth and Ryan provided when healthy this year.


It's not Coach K's style, but I'd love to see a 40 Minutes of Hell type game -- running all the time. This team will have the depth to do that (reprise of the Blue Team?), and wear out opponents that don't have that depth. Other than Marshall, everyone on this team can run.


I've only seen Marshall play for a grand total of maybe ten minutes in his entire career, but if I had to venture a guess I'd say he can probably run the floor pretty well. I agree that I'd love to see some full-court press with as many athletic bodies as we'll have. We could theoretically field a team of Cook and four 6-8 guys that would be a terror on defense.

So what are everyone's expectations on Parker's contributions next year? I've heard him at one point called the next lebron, which is of course a wildly exaggerated notion that nobody expects him to actually meet. Honestly I'm kind of tempered in my expectations as I always am when it comes to freshmen, but if he really does have Carmelo Anthony-type ability and we can build the team around him, then that's pretty exciting to think about.

The thread title is "expectations" right?

Cook becomes the next Phil Ford (no jokes about his future wife) - 35 mpg
Sheed is senior Nolan Smith - 35 mpg
Hood a lottery pick in 2014, Rudy Gay in his last year of college - 33 mpg
Jabari proves to be the best freshman since LeBron, NPOY, a stronger version of Melo - 32 mpg
Marshall has a summer more remarkable than Nick Horvath's wildest dreams, begins season as an athletic version of senior Zoubek -30 mpg
Dre comes back with his shooting stroke so refined we forget Seth - 22 mpg
Alex has the game slow down and becomes a stronger version of the best Dunleavey we ever saw -15 mpg
Tyler grows 2 inches over the summer and improves his handle, becoming the next Chris Paul - 22mpg
Amile adds 25 lbs of "muscle" and grows another inch, becoming the same type of player Joakim Noah was at UF - 20 mpg
Josh channels Jay Bilas, no measurable physical talent, but invaluable, always at least a +2/minute - 20 mpg
Jones is the next JJ, shoots over 50% from three in garbage time, but struggles to get quality minutes - 8 mpg
Semi proves to be a budding Luol, and by year end is making mock draft boards as a late first-rounder despite limited action - 7 mpg

The summer pick-up games are so legendary that the Heat come to Durham to play.

[Kedsy]

So I have a legitimate question, tempted to create a separate thread but decided against it.

If you could take our non-starter 7 players, (however you choose to define the starters - Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari, Amile for example) with our coach, and compare them to the full rosters of all the other 2013-2014 ACC teams. Which teams would you actually pick to finish ahead of our bench player 7?

That could be a team of:

Tyler Thornton: PG
Andre Dawkins: SG
Alex Murphy: SF
Josh Hairston: PF
Marshall Plumlee: C

Bench: Semi and Matt

I can't think of a no-brainer roster better than that. The starting 5 is seriously experienced, skilled, and has plenty of size. The bench has serious talent.

Really think about it? Syracuse and UNC...maybe? It's just staggering the talent, experience, and depth we will have on the bench. But we can only play 5 at a time, it's just a shame really.

I don't mean to be too much of a downer here, but while those 7 players comprise a fabulous bench, they would comprise a bottom tier roster in the ACC. That team might be better than Virginia Tech and Miami (assuming Larkin leaves), and it might be competitive with NC State, Florida State, Georgia Tech and/or Wake Forest (although probably not all of them and I'm not sure about any of them), maybe Maryland if Len leaves. But clearly worse than Duke's starting five, UNC, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, BC, and Virginia. And it's not particularly close with any of the upper tier teams.

[Duvall]

The thread title is "expectations" right?

Cook becomes the next Phil Ford (no jokes about his future wife) - 35 mpg
Sheed is senior Nolan Smith - 35 mpg
Hood a lottery pick in 2014, Rudy Gay in his last year of college - 33 mpg
Jabari proves to be the best freshman since LeBron, NPOY, a stronger version of Melo - 32 mpg
Marshall has a summer more remarkable than Nick Horvath's wildest dreams, begins season as an athletic version of senior Zoubek -30 mpg
Dre comes back with his shooting stroke so refined we forget Seth - 22 mpg
Alex has the game slow down and becomes a stronger version of the best Dunleavey we ever saw -15 mpg
Tyler grows 2 inches over the summer and improves his handle, becoming the next Chris Paul - 22mpg
Amile adds 25 lbs of "muscle" and grows another inch, becoming the same type of player Joakim Noah was at UF - 20 mpg
Josh channels Jay Bilas, no measurable physical talent, but invaluable, always at least a +2/minute - 20 mpg
Jones is the next JJ, shoots over 50% from three in garbage time, but struggles to get quality minutes - 8 mpg
Semi proves to be a budding Luol, and by year end is making mock draft boards as a late first-rounder despite limited action - 7 mpg

The summer pick-up games are so legendary that the Heat come to Durham to play.

Don't forget Zaf's transformation into a rich man's Josh Harrelson.

[Kedsy]

The thread title is "expectations" right?

Cook becomes the next Phil Ford (no jokes about his future wife) - 35 mpg
Sheed is senior Nolan Smith - 35 mpg
Hood a lottery pick in 2014, Rudy Gay in his last year of college - 33 mpg
Jabari proves to be the best freshman since LeBron, NPOY, a stronger version of Melo - 32 mpg
Marshall has a summer more remarkable than Nick Horvath's wildest dreams, begins season as an athletic version of senior Zoubek -30 mpg
Dre comes back with his shooting stroke so refined we forget Seth - 22 mpg
Alex has the game slow down and becomes a stronger version of the best Dunleavey we ever saw -15 mpg
Tyler grows 2 inches over the summer and improves his handle, becoming the next Chris Paul - 22mpg
Amile adds 25 lbs of "muscle" and grows another inch, becoming the same type of player Joakim Noah was at UF - 20 mpg
Josh channels Jay Bilas, no measurable physical talent, but invaluable, always at least a +2/minute - 20 mpg
Jones is the next JJ, shoots over 50% from three in garbage time, but struggles to get quality minutes - 8 mpg
Semi proves to be a budding Luol, and by year end is making mock draft boards as a late first-rounder despite limited action - 7 mpg

The summer pick-up games are so legendary that the Heat come to Durham to play.

And yet you also expect us to average 56 minutes a game -- is that because we'll average triple-overtime or because Coach K will successfully petition the NCAA to lengthen our games so our players all can showcase for the NBA scouts?

[Ben1029]

Don't forget Zaf's transformation into a rich man's Josh Harrelson.

He could be the answer at center that we are looking for. He has experience.

[BD80]

And yet you also expect us to average 56 minutes a game -- is that because we'll average triple-overtime or because Coach K will successfully petition the NCAA to lengthen our games so our players all can showcase for the NBA scouts?

You of all people should know of my disdain for the mpg predictions! Besides, we can just say my expectations are a bit unrealistic ...

[Duvall]

And yet you also expect us to average 56 minutes a game -- is that because we'll average triple-overtime or because Coach K will successfully petition the NCAA to lengthen our games so our players all can showcase for the NBA scouts?

Well, you have to factor in the 3-4 foot injuries that the team will have at any given time. The remaining players will see their minutes go up to pick up the slack.

[77devil]

The thread title is "expectations" right?

Cook becomes the next Phil Ford (no jokes about his future wife) - 35 mpg
Sheed is senior Nolan Smith - 35 mpg
Hood a lottery pick in 2014, Rudy Gay in his last year of college - 33 mpg
Jabari proves to be the best freshman since LeBron, NPOY, a stronger version of Melo - 32 mpg
Marshall has a summer more remarkable than Nick Horvath's wildest dreams, begins season as an athletic version of senior Zoubek -30 mpg
Dre comes back with his shooting stroke so refined we forget Seth - 22 mpg
Alex has the game slow down and becomes a stronger version of the best Dunleavey we ever saw -15 mpg
Tyler grows 2 inches over the summer and improves his handle, becoming the next Chris Paul - 22mpg
Amile adds 25 lbs of "muscle" and grows another inch, becoming the same type of player Joakim Noah was at UF - 20 mpg
Josh channels Jay Bilas, no measurable physical talent, but invaluable, always at least a +2/minute - 20 mpg
Jones is the next JJ, shoots over 50% from three in garbage time, but struggles to get quality minutes - 8 mpg
Semi proves to be a budding Luol, and by year end is making mock draft boards as a late first-rounder despite limited action - 7 mpg

The summer pick-up games are so legendary that the Heat come to Durham to play.

I'm feeling much better. Can't wait for next season. Thanks

[rhcpflea99]

Starters:
C Josh Hairston
PF Parker
SF Hood
SG Sheed
PG Cook

Bench:
Amile
Tyler
Dawkins
Alex

I believe Duke will push the ball a little more next year on offense. Rebounding by committee that for sure not sure one guy will be doing all the rebounding.

[Jackson]

Starters:
C Josh Hairston
PF Parker
SF Hood
SG Sheed
PG Cook

Bench:
Amile
Tyler
Dawkins
Alex

I believe Duke will push the ball a little more next year on offense. Rebounding by committee that for sure not sure one guy will be doing all the rebounding.

I hope Duke will be able to speed the pace up more next year too. I think Hood and Parker will be real difference makers on offense. I hope on defense to be able to press a little more also. I don't share you optimism of Hairston starting. I think Jefferson is a better player already. I was really excited about Murphy at the start of this year. Now not so much. He still has three years of eligibility as does MPIII. I think their time is still another year away. It would be amazing if Plumlee can give significant minutes, if so, the team can be dominant. Hood is going to be a monster. The addition of Parker is what could be a game changer. If he really is a poor man's Carmelo...there is no ceiling to this team.

[jv001]

The starting rotation will be determined by who grasps Duke/Coach Ks man to man defense. We saw how important Ryan was to our team defense. Who will take on that role next year? Probably not one of our freshman. I expect Hood, Tyler and Quinn to be leaders in this department. As for being a fast paced team and one that shows the pressing defense, I believe that may leave out Josh. He's clearly the slowest of our rotation guys. But in a half court offense, he will be effective but not for huge minutes. We don't know what we will get with Semi and Matt and the same can be said of Marshall. And with Andre not playing last year we don't know how he will perform. The law of average says some of the question marks will turn into positives. All in all I expect a very good year with a fired up Coach K. GoDuke!

[JayBean]

I hope Duke will be able to speed the pace up more next year too. I think Hood and Parker will be real difference makers on offense. I hope on defense to be able to press a little more also. I don't share you optimism of Hairston starting. I think Jefferson is a better player already. I was really excited about Murphy at the start of this year. Now not so much. He still has three years of eligibility as does MPIII. I think their time is still another year away. It would be amazing if Plumlee can give significant minutes, if so, the team can be dominant. Hood is going to be a monster. The addition of Parker is what could be a game changer. If he really is a poor man's Carmelo...there is no ceiling to this team.

Why are most people assuming Parker will be the four and not the five (at least on defense?) He seems better able to gain weight than Amile and is long. At the very least, he won't have Amile's biggest physical disadvantage against other 5s. I'm guessing that Parker plays the 5 with Amile playing the 4. On offense, it won't really matter since the offense will move to whatever produces the best shot. And our 4s and 5s only screen and rebound anyway :P

[ynotme32]

I haven't read this whole thread so it may have been discussed, but has anyone considered that one or maybe both Matt and Semi get red shirted?

[Jackson]

Why are most people assuming Parker will be the four and not the five (at least on defense?) He seems better able to gain weight than Amile and is long. At the very least, he won't have Amile's biggest physical disadvantage against other 5s. I'm guessing that Parker plays the 5 with Amile playing the 4. On offense, it won't really matter since the offense will move to whatever produces the best shot. And our 4s and 5s only screen and rebound anyway :P

I would think on defense it would be better for Parker to not get bogged down in the paint guarding the other team's biggest interior player. I would think on both offense and defense Parker will be more perimeter oriented. Mason's season had to a lot for recruiting bigs for the future. I think he made himself a wealthy man screening and rebounding this year!

[rhcpflea99]

I hope Duke will be able to speed the pace up more next year too. I think Hood and Parker will be real difference makers on offense. I hope on defense to be able to press a little more also. I don't share you optimism of Hairston starting. I think Jefferson is a better player already. I was really excited about Murphy at the start of this year. Now not so much. He still has three years of eligibility as does MPIII. I think their time is still another year away. It would be amazing if Plumlee can give significant minutes, if so, the team can be dominant. Hood is going to be a monster. The addition of Parker is what could be a game changer. If he really is a poor man's Carmelo...there is no ceiling to this team.

I think Hairston plays "Lance Thomas" role, rebounding and defense. Amile offense upside is great but Hairston just so much better on defense. I really do hope Amile works hard this summer and wins that starting job, but if I had to give to someone today I would give Josh the starting nod.

[FerryFor50]

[QUOTE=Jackson;645058]I hope Duke will be able to speed the pace up more next year too. I think Hood and Parker will be real difference makers on offense. I hope on defense to be able to press a little more also. I don't share you optimism of Hairston starting. I think Jefferson is a better player already. I was really excited about Murphy at the start of this year. Now not so much. He still has three years of eligibility as does MPIII. I think their time is still another year away. It would be amazing if Plumlee can give significant minutes, if so, the team can be dominant. Hood is going to be a monster. The addition of Parker is what could be a game changer. If he really is a poor man's Carmelo...there is no ceiling to this team.[/QUOTE

I think Hairston plays "Lance Thomas" role, rebounding and defense. Amile offense upside is great but Hairston just so much better on defense. I really do hope Amile works hard this summer and wins that starting job, but if I had to give to someone today I would give Josh the starting nod.

I don't think Hairston is that much better on D.

He's stronger and takes charges, but Amile is quicker with better hops.

Amile also finishes better on offense and plays within his skill set, whereas Hairston is convinced he can shoot...

Hopefully Hairston develops his shot over the summer and becomes more like Lance Thomas like you suggest. Right now, Hairston is a less athletic David McClure...

[Acymetric]

[QUOTE=rhcpflea99;645081]

I don't think Hairston is that much better on D.

He's stronger and takes charges, but Amile is quicker with better hops.

Amile also finishes better on offense and plays within his skill set, whereas Hairston is convinced he can shoot...

Hopefully Hairston develops his shot over the summer and becomes more like Lance Thomas like you suggest. Right now, Hairston is a less athletic David McClure...

Lance did somewhat develop his little jumper from the elbow at the end of his career.

[Kedsy]

I think Hairston plays "Lance Thomas" role, rebounding and defense. Amile offense upside is great but Hairston just so much better on defense. I really do hope Amile works hard this summer and wins that starting job, but if I had to give to someone today I would give Josh the starting nod.

People have been saying this for a couple years now, but besides the fact that both are around the same size (Josh is listed at an inch shorter than Lance, but he's heavier), and both are/were relatively quiet on offense while at Duke, there's really not much comparison between Josh Hairston and Lance Thomas. No disrespect intended toward Josh but Lance was a much better athlete (better speed, better hops, better quickness) and a much better player than Josh is. Seriously, Lance is a rotation player in the NBA and Josh unfortunately is never going to even get a cup of coffee. Josh simply can't do a lot of the things Lance did and it's a disservice to him to expect that. On the other hand, Josh is pretty good at some things, like taking charges and being a big body inside, and that's a perfectly fine role for him to play.

[timmy c]

People have been saying this for a couple years now, but besides the fact that both are around the same size (Josh is listed at an inch shorter than Lance, but he's heavier), and both are/were relatively quiet on offense while at Duke, there's really not much comparison between Josh Hairston and Lance Thomas. No disrespect intended toward Josh but Lance was a much better athlete (better speed, better hops, better quickness) and a much better player than Josh is. Seriously, Lance is a rotation player in the NBA and Josh unfortunately is never going to even get a cup of coffee. Josh simply can't do a lot of the things Lance did and it's a disservice to him to expect that. On the other hand, Josh is pretty good at some things, like taking charges and being a big body inside, and that's a perfectly fine role for him to play.

To piggy back on your comments... Lance was a versatile defender who was capable of guarding any wing or stretch four in college.

[Kedsy]

To piggy back on your comments... Lance was a versatile defender who was capable of guarding any wing or stretch four in college.

Yes, exactly. He even guarded PGs a few times. Lance had the ability to guard 1 through 5 (although not all 1s and maybe not all 5s), which Josh simply doesn't have, and it's not fair of us to expect that from Josh.

[turnandburn55]

Lance Thomas was also a 5-star player in high school, the #4 ranked PF coming out in 2006, and was ranked ahead of Gerald Henderson in that class. Interestingly, he was considered a good face-up forward with athletic ability but needed work on defense. Regardless, he was largely seen as a major get for Duke. IIRC, this board had a long vigil on his recruitment.

[Newton_14]

Yes, exactly. He even guarded PGs a few times. Lance had the ability to guard 1 through 5 (although not all 1s and maybe not all 5s), which Josh simply doesn't have, and it's not fair of us to expect that from Josh.


Agree. To answer your ealier question regarding Murphy, I just think he is close and will have an advantage over Jones, Semi, Marshall, and the potential to overtake Josh. I think he can steal backup minutes at the 3 and the 4 next year. As for his road map, I think he breaks the ice next year as a backup, then becomes a starter as a Jr and Sr.

The talent is very much there. He just needs confidence, and better court awareness.

[Kedsy]

Lance Thomas was also a 5-star player in high school, the #4 ranked PF coming out in 2006, and was ranked ahead of Gerald Henderson in that class. Interestingly, he was considered a good face-up forward with athletic ability but needed work on defense. Regardless, he was largely seen as a major get for Duke. IIRC, this board had a long vigil on his recruitment.

Well, in the RSCI, which is a composite of the major recruiting services, Gerald was ranked #10 and Lance was ranked #20, so he wasn't really ranked ahead. Josh in his turn was ranked #32 in the RSCI.


Agree. To answer your ealier question regarding Murphy, I just think he is close and will have an advantage over Jones, Semi, Marshall, and the potential to overtake Josh. I think he can steal backup minutes at the 3 and the 4 next year. As for his road map, I think he breaks the ice next year as a backup, then becomes a starter as a Jr and Sr.

The talent is very much there. He just needs confidence, and better court awareness.

You may be right, there's no way to tell at this point. The way Alex reportedly played for Finland last summer, I expected him to be able to contribute this year a lot more than he did. Still, I'd be surprised if there were any minutes available next season for Alex at the 3. In my opinion, if Alex gets rotation minutes next season they would have to be at the 4 or 5, and if they're at the 4 then Jabari would be playing some 5. That would especially be true if (as you suggest) the playing time Alex gets is at Marshall's and Josh's expense.

[CDu]

Yes, exactly. He even guarded PGs a few times. Lance had the ability to guard 1 through 5 (although not all 1s and maybe not all 5s), which Josh simply doesn't have, and it's not fair of us to expect that from Josh.

If anything, I'd say that Jefferson is closer to the Lance Thomas role than Hairston. And even then, it's not a perfect comparison. Jefferson at least has the quickness to potentially guard smaller players.

[Acymetric]

If anything, I'd say that Jefferson is closer to the Lance Thomas role than Hairston. And even then, it's not a perfect comparison. Jefferson at least has the quickness to potentially guard smaller players.

Lance was pretty quick and probably spent meaningful time guarding every position except possibly PG, especially due to all the switching. Key to our defense in 2010. That's not to say that Amile isn't a little quicker than Lance, but Lance did not lack speed to guard multiple positions.

[CDu]

Lance was pretty quick and probably spent meaningful time guarding every position except possibly PG, especially due to all the switching. Key to our defense in 2010.

That was my point. Thomas was very quick for a PF, and thus was able to somewhat guard even PGs while also being able to guard Cs. Hairston is not quick and not able to guard anything but PF and C. Jefferson is at least quick enough to guard SF and PF, and maybe quick enough to guard some guards. Hence I said he was a closer comparison to Thomas than Hairston is. But Jefferson is not as proven a defender as Thomas (at least not senior-year Thomas), so it remains to be seen how good that comp really is.

[Acymetric]

That was my point. Thomas was very quick for a PF, and thus was able to somewhat guard even PGs while also being able to guard Cs. Hairston is not quick and not able to guard anything but PF and C. Jefferson is at least quick enough to guard SF and PF, and maybe quick enough to guard some guards. Hence I said he was a closer comparison to Thomas than Hairston is. But Jefferson is not as proven a defender as Thomas (at least not senior-year Thomas), so it remains to be seen how good that comp really is.

Ok, looks like I pretty much read your point backwards. We're on the same page here, pay me no mind! :confused:

[dukelifer]

Next year is going to be interesting. I have a feeling the league is going to be mighty tough. Duke will need to develop great team chemistry very quickly. There will be talent but they key will be how it comes together. K will earn his money next year.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Next year is going to be interesting. I have a feeling the league is going to be mighty tough. Duke will need to develop great team chemistry very quickly. There will be talent but they key will be how it comes together. K will earn his money next year.

UNC, Syracuse, ND, Duke and Pitt will all be pre-season locks for the NCAAT. Then add in Maryland, BC, VA, Wake, FSU, Miami and State as potential tournament teams and, yes, the ACC is definitely back next year.

However, as I said earlier, the 2014 Blue Devils will be THE most talented Duke team since 2004 with at least 3 potential lottery picks in Hood, Parker, and Sulaimon. I like our chances to finish top-3 next year in the conference.

[Duvall]

UNC, Syracuse, ND, Duke and Pitt will all be pre-season locks for the NCAAT. Then add in Maryland, BC, VA, Wake, FSU, Miami and State as potential tournament teams and, yes, the ACC is definitely back next year.

However, as I said earlier, the 2014 Blue Devils will be THE most talented Duke team since 2004 with at least 3 potential lottery picks in Hood, Parker, and Sulaimon. I like our chances to finish top-3 next year in the conference.

Miami and State looks to be "potential tournament teams" only in the sense that they will be invited to the ACC Tournament. But the league should definitely be deeper next season.

[CDu]

UNC, Syracuse, ND, Duke and Pitt will all be pre-season locks for the NCAAT. Then add in Maryland, BC, VA, Wake, FSU, Miami and State as potential tournament teams and, yes, the ACC is definitely back next year.

However, as I said earlier, the 2014 Blue Devils will be THE most talented Duke team since 2004 with at least 3 potential lottery picks in Hood, Parker, and Sulaimon. I like our chances to finish top-3 next year in the conference.

State has just lost 5 of their 7 rotation players (4.5 starters) from last year, and there's a chance that a 6th may leave as well (Warren is considering early entry). Currently they have only Lewis, Warren, and Vandenburg coming back (and even Vandenburg is a possibility to do a grad transfer). Even with a decent recruiting class coming in, I'd be absolutely shocked if State made the tourney next year.

Same thing for Miami. They are losing all but 2 of their primary rotation players (Kadji, Johnson, Gamble, Scott, and McKinney-Jones are all seniors). Their best returning player (Larkin) may or may not decide it's in his best interest to go pro. Larranega is a great coach, but I'd also be shocked if they threaten the tournament.

[BD80]

... Same thing for Miami. They are losing all but 2 of their primary rotation players (Kadji, Johnson, Gamble, Scott, and McKinney-Jones are all seniors). Their best returning player (Larkin) may or may not decide it's in his best interest to go pro. Larranega is a great coach, but I'd also be shocked if they threaten the tournament.

I'm not sure its expiration of eligibility as much as reaching the mandatory retirement age ...

[Bojangles4Eva]

To piggy back on your comments... Lance was a versatile defender who was capable of guarding any wing or stretch four in college.

If I remember correctly, Lance started or got good minutes many games as a freshman because of his ability on D. Statistically the two match up pretty well in freshman seasons with Amile an edge on rebounds, blocks, and turnovers (Amile/Lance: 2.9/2.5 rpg, 0.5/0.1 bpg, 0.4/1.4 tpg). But, I remember freshman Lance being a better defender than freshman Amile, and freshman Amile a better offensive player than freshman Lance (4 ppg for both). Anyone else remember it that way, or am I wrong?

[BlueDevilBrowns]

State has just lost 5 of their 7 rotation players (4.5 starters) from last year, and there's a chance that a 6th may leave as well (Warren is considering early entry). Currently they have only Lewis, Warren, and Vandenburg coming back (and even Vandenburg is a possibility to do a grad transfer). Even with a decent recruiting class coming in, I'd be absolutely shocked if State made the tourney next year.

Same thing for Miami. They are losing all but 2 of their primary rotation players (Kadji, Johnson, Gamble, Scott, and McKinney-Jones are all seniors). Their best returning player (Larkin) may or may not decide it's in his best interest to go pro. Larranega is a great coach, but I'd also be shocked if they threaten the tournament.

Well, I didn't claim Miami and State were locks, just that they had potential to make the tournament.

State made the Sweet 16 last year when they had no expectations. To me, Gottfried seems to have the strange ability to get teams to overachieve to reach 20 wins and then also be able to get teams to underachieve to finish with 20 wins, as well. Kinda like Herb did, actually. So we'll see.

And I think if Larkin returns, Miami has a punchers chance of making the tournament(yes, I think Larkin's that good).

I'm not saying Miami and State are finishing in the top 1/3 of the conference, but I don't think they'll be doormats, either. For the 1st time in a long time, the ACC could truly be deep next year.

[bob blue devil]

I'm guessing conventional wisdom is roughly...
- Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, MP3 with TT, Amile, and Hairston getting rotational mins like this year (hopefully Murphy earns a place too!). Hard to project MP3, so maybe Hairston gets that spot depending.
I would lump Dawk in the rotational mins if he's back. Of course this doesn't fit with the reality that K typically goes ~2-3 deep on the bench, so something has got to give.

What I'd be excited/curious to see is a lot of:
- Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, Amile, better of MP3/Hairston
I believe it would be very hard to score against that line-up. And we'd have 3 perimeter guys that could create their own shot and rebound very well for their positions. Not to mention Amile's demonstrated capability of hunting rebounds and finishing around the rim. If I had to nitpick, it might be held back by shooting (opponents might pick the poison of giving us open looks from range) and it might have trouble initiating its offense.

p.s. i thought there was a thread out there for this, but couldn't find it - merge away!

[Matches]

UNC, Syracuse, ND, Duke and Pitt will all be pre-season locks for the NCAAT. Then add in Maryland, BC, VA, Wake, FSU, Miami and State as potential tournament teams and, yes, the ACC is definitely back next year.



I wouldn't call UNC a lock just yet. They have the potential to be really good (like Top 5 good) if everyone comes back and they add Wiggins. That's their best-case. Their worst-case, though, is that Bullock, Hairston and McAdoo all leave and they don't get Wiggins. In that scenario (which IMO is at least as plausible as the best-case), they're an NIT team in a deeper ACC.

[Ichabod Drain]

I'm guessing conventional wisdom is roughly...
- Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, MP3 with TT, Amile, and Hairston getting rotational mins like this year (hopefully Murphy earns a place too!). Hard to project MP3, so maybe Hairston gets that spot depending.
I would lump Dawk in the rotational mins if he's back. Of course this doesn't fit with the reality that K typically goes ~2-3 deep on the bench, so something has got to give.

What I'd be excited/curious to see is a lot of:
- Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, Amile, better of MP3/Hairston
I believe it would be very hard to score against that line-up. And we'd have 3 perimeter guys that could create their own shot and rebound very well for their positions. Not to mention Amile's demonstrated capability of hunting rebounds and finishing around the rim. If I had to nitpick, it might be held back by shooting (opponents might pick the poison of giving us open looks from range) and it might have trouble initiating its offense.

p.s. i thought there was a thread out there for this, but couldn't find it - merge away!

I think this rarely, if ever, happens with both Cook and TT on the team. Also I wouldn't put it past Amile to earn a starting spot at the 5 next year. That position is obviously the most up in the air of any of them.

[Saratoga2]

While I think Syracuse is a school with decent academics, I don't think that carries over into the basketball program. Notre Dame is a good fit but not Syracuse. When I made that case to friends they reminded me that we also have Miami and Florida St. andd UNC. I would have preferred to stick with schools that maintain high standards within their academic programs.

[CDu]

Well, I didn't claim Miami and State were locks, just that they had potential to make the tournament.

State made the Sweet 16 last year when they had no expectations. To me, Gottfried seems to have the strange ability to get teams to overachieve to reach 20 wins and then also be able to get teams to underachieve to finish with 20 wins, as well. Kinda like Herb did, actually. So we'll see.

And I think if Larkin returns, Miami has a punchers chance of making the tournament(yes, I think Larkin's that good).

I'm not saying Miami and State are finishing in the top 1/3 of the conference, but I don't think they'll be doormats, either. For the 1st time in a long time, the ACC could truly be deep next year.

State was the last team in the field last year despite having a very experienced and talented bunch (2 seniors, 3 juniors, 2 star sophomores) that had been undercoached. Next year, they'll have, almost literally, no experience: 3 freshmen, 0-2 sophomores, 1 redshirt sophomore, maybe 1 redshirt senior, and whomever else they can add via high schoolers, JuCos, or grad transfers). Unless Warren and Lewis stay, they'll have no returning rotation players from this year's team. And as is, they'd only have the two guys with the fewest minutes of those rotation players. And if Lewis (possible transfer to Davidson?) or Warren (possible early entry?) go, they'll literally have trouble fielding a starting 5 of recruited players. Unless they get a surprise influx of veteran talent, I think State are indeed going to be doormats.

As for Miami, Larkin and Brown and their huge-but-raw frontcourt would probably still be a competitive team. Given the introduction of the 3 Big East schools, though, I'd be surprised if Miami was even a top-half-of-the-conference team. If Larkin goes, they'll join State as doormats.

[MCFinARL]

According to the Herald-Sun, one of Duke's options next year will be "6 foot 11 redshirt Miles Plumlee." Welcome back, Miles! :) http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/x145786461/Duke-NCAA-postmortem-Theres-light-at-end-of-tunnel

(By the time you follow this link, they may have corrected it, but I swear that is what it says right now.)

[bob blue devil]

Sulaimon, hood, Parker, Jefferson, Hairston/mp3

I think this rarely, if ever, happens with both Cook and TT on the team.
I agree it is unlikely, but should it be? College hoops is guard centric and the line-up I mention could be much better at defending the perimeter with its incredible athleticism and length.

[timmy c]

According to the Herald-Sun, one of Duke's options next year will be "6 foot 11 redshirt Miles Plumlee." Welcome back, Miles! :) http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/x145786461/Duke-NCAA-postmortem-Theres-light-at-end-of-tunnel

(By the time you follow this link, they may have corrected it, but I swear that is what it says right now.)

Wow, A 25 y/o Miles with Nba experience anchoring the '14 team would exceed my expectations!

[Lauderdevil]

While I think Syracuse is a school with decent academics, I don't think that carries over into the basketball program. Notre Dame is a good fit but not Syracuse. When I made that case to friends they reminded me that we also have Miami and Florida St. andd UNC. I would have preferred to stick with schools that maintain high standards within their academic programs.

I think people should be careful in applying what amounts to snobbery, not analysis, in evaluating the academic strengths of institutions. On what basis would you argue that Syracuse doesn't have "high academic standards" (separate from admission standards, which vary across all schools)? I could make the case about plenty of very strong, innovative programs at Syracuse -- as well as Miami, Florida State, and UNC -- and how these schools add significant value to their students, their communities and the economy. In the case of Syracuse and Miami, we're talking about good, competitive private schools roughly the size of Duke in terms of overall student population (Syracuse being about 21,000 students, Miami and Duke in the 14-15,000 student range).

What's more reasonable to opine on is the role and prioritization of athletics within the university community and whether there is sufficient oversight of the athletics program to avoid scandal. On that score the listed schools have a more mixed record (though as I sit here, for the most part I don't think Syracuse has had those kinds of issues, Bernie Fine aside).

[BD80]

According to the Herald-Sun, one of Duke's options next year will be "6 foot 11 redshirt Miles Plumlee." Welcome back, Miles! :) http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/x145786461/Duke-NCAA-postmortem-Theres-light-at-end-of-tunnel

(By the time you follow this link, they may have corrected it, but I swear that is what it says right now.)


Wow, A 25 y/o Miles with Nba experience anchoring the '14 team would exceed my expectations!

That shirt must be a very special shade of red!

Unfortunately, there is an error in the article, Miles, at age 25, would only be eligible to play at Miami, the retirement capitol of college basketball!

[dukenilnil]

Someone with better recall will hopefully chime in, but I can't remember a time where K would have started so many 1st/2nd year players on the team as everyone is suggesting. K is a huge fan of playing the older guys, even if arguably less talented, because of the experience and communication they provide. Following that, most of the suggestions which have some combination of Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Marshall, Jefferson starting have too many youngin's. I think the only guaranteed starter is Cook followed closely by Sheed. After that, I think we'll see more upper class players.
I'd imagine the units more as follows:
Starters:
PG: Cook
Sg: Sheed with occassional spot starts by Thornton or Dawkins
SF: Dawkins and Parker getting the most starts
Low post: Hairston getting most starts at combination of PF/C with other starts taken by Amile and Marshall

Order of minutes played: I think we'll see the 3 seniors all in the top 6 in minutes played
Cook
Sheed
Thornton
Parker
Hairston
Dawkins (biggest question mark on playing time will be defensive quickness/focus)
Amile
Marshall
Hood

I'd expect Jones or Semi to redshirt.
I'd expect at least 1 transfer, but I won't mention names because I don't think that speculation on names is healthy for the team/players. As a fan of the team, I'd love all the players to stay, but I certainly will understand and support any player who feels it is in their interest personally, academically, and basketball wise to go to another school

[TruBlu]

K is a huge fan of playing the older guys, even if arguably less talented



Unless their last name starts with a 'P', as in Paulus and Pocius.;)

[dukenilnil]

Next year's team might be closest to 1997-98 and 1989-90 in terms of playing depth and minutes.
In 1989-90, the team played 9 guys 10+ minutes which is a good barometer for depth/contribution. In 1997-98, Duke played 10+ guys almost 10 minutes a game. Part of that was influenced by injury and to some extent performance decline in certain players.

1997-98: http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=1997-98
1989-90: http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=1989-90


Someone with better recall will hopefully chime in, but I can't remember a time where K would have started so many 1st/2nd year players on the team as everyone is suggesting. K is a huge fan of playing the older guys, even if arguably less talented, because of the experience and communication they provide. Following that, most of the suggestions which have some combination of Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Marshall, Jefferson starting have too many youngin's. I think the only guaranteed starter is Cook followed closely by Sheed. After that, I think we'll see more upper class players.
I'd imagine the units more as follows:
Starters:
PG: Cook
Sg: Sheed with occassional spot starts by Thornton or Dawkins
SF: Dawkins and Parker getting the most starts
Low post: Hairston getting most starts at combination of PF/C with other starts taken by Amile and Marshall

Order of minutes played: I think we'll see the 3 seniors all in the top 6 in minutes played
Cook
Sheed
Thornton
Parker
Hairston
Dawkins (biggest question mark on playing time will be defensive quickness/focus)
Amile
Marshall
Hood

I'd expect Jones or Semi to redshirt.
I'd expect at least 1 transfer, but I won't mention names because I don't think that speculation on names is healthy for the team/players. As a fan of the team, I'd love all the players to stay, but I certainly will understand and support any player who feels it is in their interest personally, academically, and basketball wise to go to another school

[dukenilnil]

Unless their last name starts with a 'P', as in Paulus and Pocius.;)

But even then, Paulus played 16 minutes a game and who would have seen McClure playing 16 minutes as a senior too, but he provided the experience factor that year as well.

Pocious never broke through and there are a decent number of 4-year players who never quite broke through so even senior year didn't play a ton. That said, the guys who played prior to senior year generally contributed 15+ minutes their senior year even if other more talented players on the team - thus, the expectation that Thornton and Hairston still get a lot of minutes and some starts even if their all-around game does not have the same potential as others on the roster. Dawkins is harder to project. He has always had a hard time getting consistent minutes but its so hard to know how much of that was dealing with his personal life and how much was limits on his basketball ability. I think he's lack of top shelf quickness will cap his minutes some because it makes defense harder for him but I fully expect him to come back and be a major contributor if that is what he wants in his life at this time.

[wk2109]

Someone with better recall will hopefully chime in, but I can't remember a time where K would have started so many 1st/2nd year players on the team as everyone is suggesting. K is a huge fan of playing the older guys, even if arguably less talented, because of the experience and communication they provide. Following that, most of the suggestions which have some combination of Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Marshall, Jefferson starting have too many youngin's. I think the only guaranteed starter is Cook followed closely by Sheed. After that, I think we'll see more upper class players.
I'd imagine the units more as follows:
Starters:
PG: Cook
Sg: Sheed with occassional spot starts by Thornton or Dawkins
SF: Dawkins and Parker getting the most starts
Low post: Hairston getting most starts at combination of PF/C with other starts taken by Amile and Marshall

Order of minutes played: I think we'll see the 3 seniors all in the top 6 in minutes played
Cook
Sheed
Thornton
Parker
Hairston
Dawkins (biggest question mark on playing time will be defensive quickness/focus)
Amile
Marshall
Hood

I'd expect Jones or Semi to redshirt.
I'd expect at least 1 transfer, but I won't mention names because I don't think that speculation on names is healthy for the team/players. As a fan of the team, I'd love all the players to stay, but I certainly will understand and support any player who feels it is in their interest personally, academically, and basketball wise to go to another school

I, along with probably most people on this board, highly doubt that Hood will be that low on the minutes chart or that Parker won't play the 4 spot.

[CDu]

I, along with probably most people on this board, highly doubt that Hood will be that low on the minutes chart or that Parker won't play the 4 spot.

Yeah, Parker played PF/C in college (just with wing skills). Given his size (he'll be the biggest guy on the team aside from Marshall), I'd be quite surprised if Parker isn't our starting PF. And I'd be quite surprised if Hood isn't our starting SF.

[Starter]

Someone with better recall will hopefully chime in, but I can't remember a time where K would have started so many 1st/2nd year players on the team as everyone is suggesting. K is a huge fan of playing the older guys, even if arguably less talented, because of the experience and communication they provide. Following that, most of the suggestions which have some combination of Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Marshall, Jefferson starting have too many youngin's. I think the only guaranteed starter is Cook followed closely by Sheed. After that, I think we'll see more upper class players.
I'd imagine the units more as follows:
Starters:
PG: Cook
Sg: Sheed with occassional spot starts by Thornton or Dawkins
SF: Dawkins and Parker getting the most starts
Low post: Hairston getting most starts at combination of PF/C with other starts taken by Amile and Marshall

Order of minutes played: I think we'll see the 3 seniors all in the top 6 in minutes played
Cook
Sheed
Thornton
Parker
Hairston
Dawkins (biggest question mark on playing time will be defensive quickness/focus)
Amile
Marshall
Hood

I'd expect Jones or Semi to redshirt.
I'd expect at least 1 transfer, but I won't mention names because I don't think that speculation on names is healthy for the team/players. As a fan of the team, I'd love all the players to stay, but I certainly will understand and support any player who feels it is in their interest personally, academically, and basketball wise to go to another school

I'd say there's literally a zero chance Parker isn't a Day 1 starter for Duke, as he would be for any team in the country. When I saw him, he had the same sort of skill set as Ryan Kelly, but he's simply more naturally talented. (It's not a knock on Kelly, who I came to very much appreciate.)

I admit to not having read much of this thread -- took a bit of a break -- but my preferred lineup would be Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker and Jefferson, assuming Amile puts on some weight. Jefferson has already shown signs of being a gifted rebounder, a promising defender and a solid finisher around the basket. Marshall Plumlee has size, but he hasn't shown me anything yet to indicate he's close to being a starting-caliber player. That could change, of course, but I have to base things on what I've seen, and I'm hoping he simply brings enough to be a part of the rotation. For his part, Hairston is limited in a variety of ways.

All that said, I expect Hairston to begin the season as a starter given Krzyzewski's obvious comfort level with him, and his senior status. But I'm hoping Jefferson comes along enough to create a competition.

As for the bench, Thornton will obviously play a lot, whoever's left from Hairston/Amile/Marshall will see time... I don't know about Dawkins. Like, I know these are different situations, but I see it being like Ricky Price, where it was really tough to work him back in after he'd been ostensibly gone from the program for a significant portion of time. (Price kind of became a pariah, while Dawkins will be rightfully beloved, I'm just referring to on court.) That said, Dawkins has a skill set that is presumably still useful, so I guess we'll see.

As for the newcomers besides Parker, I'd love to see Ojeleye -- who apparently averaged something crazy like 40 points in high school -- and Matt Jones are quick contributors, but I have to be a little skeptical that freshmen outside of the absolute elite can carve out that sort of immediate role in Krzyzewski's program.

Honestly, I'm looking forward to watching this team next year. I loved Mason, Seth and Kelly, but I think a fresh look while maintaining a high level of talent is going to be refreshing. And then hopefully, Krzyzewski absolutely loads up for 2014.

[nocilla]

I expect Duke to be an AP Top 10 team all season. (Duke has never been ranked outside the top 10 when there is a Plumlee on the roster.) I also expect us to contend for the ACC Championship and a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. And finally, I expect to have lots of fun watching Duke basketball.

[Cameron]

There were people here who basically scoffed at the idea of Rasheed averaging double figures this season. Rasheed averaged double figures and was at times our best all-around scorer. Matt Jones will not only see the court, but he will be a significant factor and play at least as many minutes as Andre Dawkins did as a freshman. Jones has been compared to Trajan Langdon and J.J. Redick with regard to his ability to light up the net, and he has the natural athleticism, quickness and ability to grow into a fine defender. He will fit in perfectly in the Duke system.

[Ichabod Drain]

There were people here who basically scoffed at the idea of Rasheed averaging double figures this season. Rasheed averaged double figures and was at times our best all-around scorer. Matt Jones will not only see the court, but he will be a significant factor and play at least as many minutes as Andre Dawkins did as a freshman. Jones has been compared to Trajan Langdon and J.J. Redick with regard to his ability to light up the net, and he has the natural athleticism, quickness and ability to grow into a fine defender. He will fit in perfectly in the Duke system.

I agree to some extent. Though people last year assumed Murphy would get major minutes at the 3, even though he was unproven. Rasheed has proven he will get major minutes at the 2 next year leaving less time for Jones. Now this year we have a (somewhat) unproven Hood at the 3, so we will have to wait and see how that works out. We had really only three true wing players this year, Sheed, Curry, and Murphy. Next year we could have as many as six; Sheed, Murphy, Jones, Hood, Semi, and Dawkins. That's not including Jabari who i believe will be at the 4 spot. Wow next year is going to look a lot different, this could be a lot of fun!

[Lauderdevil]

The beauty of all of this is that all of the guys are going to work very hard in the offseason, because almost no one's minutes are guaranteed. I expect we're going to see a lot of guys a lot better next year as they fight for their spots on the depth chart. There are 10 guys who, if they improve enough over the summer, could be starters next year.

[jimsumner]

I agree to some extent. Though people last year assumed Murphy would get major minutes at the 3, even though he was unproven. Rasheed has proven he will get major minutes at the 2 next year leaving less time for Jones. Now this year we have a (somewhat) unproven Hood at the 3, so we will have to wait and see how that works out. We had really only three true wing players this year, Sheed, Curry, and Murphy. Next year we could have as many as six; Sheed, Murphy, Jones, Hood, Semi, and Dawkins. That's not including Jabari who i believe will be at the 4 spot. Wow next year is going to look a lot different, this could be a lot of fun!

I'm not sure how Hood is unproven. He has a year of college basketball under his belt, a year starting in a power conference. He made the SEC All-freshman team in a year in which two of the best players in the country were SEC freshman. He's not just a workout-wonder. He's done it in real games.

[GGLC]

I think Hairston plays "Lance Thomas" role, rebounding and defense. Amile offense upside is great but Hairston just so much better on defense. I really do hope Amile works hard this summer and wins that starting job, but if I had to give to someone today I would give Josh the starting nod.

The problem is that Josh is simply not a good rebounder. Amile is much better.

[sagegrouse]

My philosphy, honed over 30+ years of watching K, is "Seeing is believing." Or, perhaps more accurately, "Not seeing on the court raises more than a few doubts."

Here's what I have seen:

Cook and Rasheed are gonna start and play a lot of minutes.

Tyler and Josh are gonna play 15-20 minutes a game no matter what. Josh get could more if he makes the starting lineup.

Here's what I conjecture (is this really a verb?):

Hood and Jabari, based on rep, have inside tracks at starting positions.

Amile, Alex and Marshall will get more minutes than they did this year (hard for Marshall to get fewer) and, as it always seems to happen, improve a heckuva lot with playing time. And, as the old Grouse has groused many times before, the most underrated player coming into a season is a veteran on the bench.

Here's is what I have no idea about:

Whether Andre Dawkins is through as a Blue Devil. If he gets his degree, he could play anywhere, including Duke, without sitting out.

Matt Jones and Semi will probably have good careers at Duke but have very uncertain prospects in 2014: they could surprise us or could just sit. And I don't think K knows. I sure don't.

If anyone will transfer.

If Duke picks up a fifth-year big off the college "waiver wire."

Who the fifth starter will be, assuming Cook, Rasheed, Hood and Jabari are all likely to start. Will if be Amile, Josh, Alex or Marshall? Possibly Andre? Or maybe a real surprise: Jones or Semi, which would enable us to retain a three-guard starting lineup and drive DBR crazy (Semi's a swing player).

Sagegrouse

[lotusland]

There were people here who basically scoffed at the idea of Rasheed averaging double figures this season. Rasheed averaged double figures and was at times our best all-around scorer. Matt Jones will not only see the court, but he will be a significant factor and play at least as many minutes as Andre Dawkins did as a freshman. Jones has been compared to Trajan Langdon and J.J. Redick with regard to his ability to light up the net, and he has the natural athleticism, quickness and ability to grow into a fine defender. He will fit in perfectly in the Duke system.

Dre was the only guard/wing player on the bench his freshman year. That won't be the case at all next year. Jones will play less even if he turns out to be better.

[lotusland]

My philosphy, honed over 30+ years of watching K, is "Seeing is believing." Or, perhaps more accurately, "Not seeing on the court raises more than a few doubts."

Here's what I have seen:

Cook and Rasheed are gonna start and play a lot of minutes.

Tyler and Josh are gonna play 15-20 minutes a game no matter what. Josh get could more if he makes the starting lineup.

Here's what I conjecture (is this really a verb?):

Hood and Jabari, based on rep, have inside tracks at starting positions.

Amile, Alex and Marshall will get more minutes than they did this year (hard for Marshall to get fewer) and, as it always seems to happen, improve a heckuva lot with playing time. And, as the old Grouse has groused many times before, the most underrated player coming into a season is a veteran on the bench.

Here's is what I have no idea about:

Whether Andre Dawkins is through as a Blue Devil. If he gets his degree, he could play anywhere, including Duke, without sitting out.

Matt Jones and Semi will probably have good careers at Duke but have very uncertain prospects in 2014: they could surprise us or could just sit. And I don't think K knows. I sure don't.

If anyone will transfer.

If Duke picks up a fifth-year big off the college "waiver wire."

Who the fifth starter will be, assuming Cook, Rasheed, Hood and Jabari are all likely to start. Will if be Amile, Josh, Alex or Marshall? Possibly Andre? Or maybe a real surprise: Jones or Semi, which would enable us to retain a three-guard starting lineup and drive DBR crazy (Semi's a swing player).

Sagegrouse

a swinger? Semi-guard and Semi-forward?

[Skitzle]

I'm not sure how Hood is unproven. He has a year of college basketball under his belt, a year starting in a power conference. He made the SEC All-freshman team in a year in which two of the best players in the country were SEC freshman. He's not just a workout-wonder. He's done it in real games.

I predict an 8 man rotation:

Tier 1: 25+ Min
Cook
Sheed
Thornton
Hood
Parker

Tier 1.5: 15-20+ Min
Jefferson
Hairston

Tier 3 Min 10+
Murphy

Tier 4 Min 5+
Dawkins
Plumlee

Tier Wait Your Turn
Jones
Semi

Tier Walk-on
Zafirovski

Explanation by position:

Guard Spot (1 & 2 spots)
The vast majority of these minutes will be taken by Starters Cook & Sheed and 6th Man Thornton. If ANY minutes are left over (5 or less per game) they will go to Dawkins or Jones - whoever EARNS it. Edge Dawkins. Reason Seniority (He knows the system).

Center (5 spot)
One of Jefferson or Hairston will start. Duke will be in the best position to succeed if this is Jefferson. It will mean that he has shown progress on his strength and defense and will be able to guard the 5 position well. He will be spelled by Hairston with Plumlee at 3rd string.
Starter (Jefferson or Hairston) will see 20-25 minutes per game. Backup will see 15-20 minutes per game.
There will be some times during each game where we see BOTH Hairston and Jefferson are on the floor.

Wing Spots (3 & 4 spots)
Clearly these are open to the most debate. Majority of the minutes here will be taken by Hood and Parker (3 & 4 respectively). Some of the leftover minutes at the 4 will be filled in by Jefferson/Hairston. Some of the leftover minutes at the 3 will be played by Thornton/Rasheed.

That leaves just a handful of minutes 10-15 per game between 4 players. Dawkins, Murphy, Jones, and Semi. My prediction is that 1 of these players will get 80-90% of these minutes. Barring a BIG surprise from Semi and Jones, it looks like the last minutes are a toss-up between Dawkins and Murphy.

We expected to see a lot more of Murphy this year, but Dawkins does have seniority, it all depends on his defensive development. Still I don't expect him to be more than a silent off the court leader (think senior year Greg Paulus with fewer minutes). So I'd tip my hand to Murphy for 10-15 min a year.

[Kedsy]

There were people here who basically scoffed at the idea of Rasheed averaging double figures this season. Rasheed averaged double figures and was at times our best all-around scorer. Matt Jones will not only see the court, but he will be a significant factor and play at least as many minutes as Andre Dawkins did as a freshman. Jones has been compared to Trajan Langdon and J.J. Redick with regard to his ability to light up the net, and he has the natural athleticism, quickness and ability to grow into a fine defender. He will fit in perfectly in the Duke system.

In Andre's freshman year, we only had four perimeter players for three perimeter positions, and Andre averaged 12.6 mpg. Next season we should have eight perimeter players for three perimeter positions (not counting Jabari or Amile, although both of them are capable of playing wing). If Matt had been a freshman in 2009-10 instead of Andre, then probably he would have gotten 12 or 13 mpg just like Andre did. Absent unexpected circumstances, it's hard to see Matt getting that much run next season. Having said all that, if Andre doesn't play for Duke next season, that may alter the playing time expectations for Matt, although he'd still have to compete with Alex and Semi for the fifth perimeter spot in the rotation (he'd certainly be behind Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, and Tyler), so 12 or 13 mpg would still be a little bit of a reach.


Someone with better recall will hopefully chime in, but I can't remember a time where K would have started so many 1st/2nd year players on the team as everyone is suggesting. K is a huge fan of playing the older guys, even if arguably less talented, because of the experience and communication they provide. Following that, most of the suggestions which have some combination of Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Marshall, Jefferson starting have too many youngin's. I think the only guaranteed starter is Cook followed closely by Sheed. After that, I think we'll see more upper class players.

Most people seem to be suggesting a rotation along the lines of: Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari, Tyler, Andre, and two of: Josh/Amile/Marshall. That's four freshmen/sophomores among our top eight (three in the starting lineup). To find a year with a similar number of freshmen/sophomores in the rotation or starting lineup, you have to go all the way back to... 2011. That year we had five freshmen/sophomores in the top eight and three in the starting lineup.

I didn't check every season, but here are a few notable ones for comparison:

2004: five of top seven; three in starting lineup
2001: five of top seven; three in starting lineup
1999: five of top seven (6 of top 8); three in starting lineup
1991: five of top eight; four in starting lineup

Also, in 2007, six of our top seven players were freshmen or sophomores, with four in the starting lineup.

So it's not nearly as uncommon as you think.

Regarding some of your other assertions:

No Duke freshman in the past 15 years (and probably beyond that, but I don't have the ratings beyond 15 years) who has been rated a top five recruit has not started from day one their freshman year. Absent an injury, there is pretty much no doubt that Jabari will start.

We've only had three of them, but every transfer under Coach K has started the majority of Duke's games and played at least 24 mpg in his first year as an active player. Rodney will start and be in the top six in minutes played.

I'd be surprised if anybody redshirts or transfers, but it's way too early to start talking about those things.

[Skitzle]

My philosphy, honed over 30+ years of watching K, is "Seeing is believing." Or, perhaps more accurately, "Not seeing on the court raises more than a few doubts."

Here's what I have seen:

Cook and Rasheed are gonna start and play a lot of minutes.

Tyler and Josh are gonna play 15-20 minutes a game no matter what. Josh get could more if he makes the starting lineup.

Here's what I conjecture (is this really a verb?):

Hood and Jabari, based on rep, have inside tracks at starting positions.

Amile, Alex and Marshall will get more minutes than they did this year (hard for Marshall to get fewer) and, as it always seems to happen, improve a heckuva lot with playing time. And, as the old Grouse has groused many times before, the most underrated player coming into a season is a veteran on the bench.

Here's is what I have no idea about:

Whether Andre Dawkins is through as a Blue Devil. If he gets his degree, he could play anywhere, including Duke, without sitting out.

Matt Jones and Semi will probably have good careers at Duke but have very uncertain prospects in 2014: they could surprise us or could just sit. And I don't think K knows. I sure don't.

If anyone will transfer.

If Duke picks up a fifth-year big off the college "waiver wire."

Who the fifth starter will be, assuming Cook, Rasheed, Hood and Jabari are all likely to start. Will if be Amile, Josh, Alex or Marshall? Possibly Andre? Or maybe a real surprise: Jones or Semi, which would enable us to retain a three-guard starting lineup and drive DBR crazy (Semi's a swing player).

Sagegrouse

Well said, really matches the thoughts I just posted.

Also, are you as upset as I am that we no longer have to count our Plumlees?

[jimsumner]

I predict an 8 man rotation:

Tier 1: 25+ Min
Cook
Sheed
Thornton
Hood
Parker

Tier 1.5: 15-20+ Min
Jefferson
Hairston

Tier 3 Min 10+
Murphy

Tier 4 Min 5+
Dawkins
Plumlee

Tier Wait Your Turn
Jones
Semi

Tier Walk-on
Zafirovski

Explanation by position:

Guard Spot (1 & 2 spots)
The vast majority of these minutes will be taken by Starters Cook & Sheed and 6th Man Thornton. If ANY minutes are left over (5 or less per game) they will go to Dawkins or Jones - whoever EARNS it. Edge Dawkins. Reason Seniority (He knows the system).

Center (5 spot)
One of Jefferson or Hairston will start. Duke will be in the best position to succeed if this is Jefferson. It will mean that he has shown progress on his strength and defense and will be able to guard the 5 position well. He will be spelled by Hairston with Plumlee at 3rd string.
Starter (Jefferson or Hairston) will see 20-25 minutes per game. Backup will see 15-20 minutes per game.
There will be some times during each game where we see BOTH Hairston and Jefferson are on the floor.

Wing Spots (3 & 4 spots)
Clearly these are open to the most debate. Majority of the minutes here will be taken by Hood and Parker (3 & 4 respectively). Some of the leftover minutes at the 4 will be filled in by Jefferson/Hairston. Some of the leftover minutes at the 3 will be played by Thornton/Rasheed.

That leaves just a handful of minutes 10-15 per game between 4 players. Dawkins, Murphy, Jones, and Semi. My prediction is that 1 of these players will get 80-90% of these minutes. Barring a BIG surprise from Semi and Jones, it looks like the last minutes are a toss-up between Dawkins and Murphy.

We expected to see a lot more of Murphy this year, but Dawkins does have seniority, it all depends on his defensive development. Still I don't expect him to be more than a silent off the court leader (think senior year Greg Paulus with fewer minutes). So I'd tip my hand to Murphy for 10-15 min a year.

If Andre Dawkins come back to Duke, he'll be in the 15-25 mpg range. He's not going to be competing for mop-up minutes.

[InSpades]

Tier 3 Min 10+
Murphy

Tier 4 Min 5+
Dawkins


I would be shocked if Murphy got more minutes than Dawkins next year (assuming Dawkins is back of course, which I hope he is). This is a guy who played 20+ minutes and started half his games 2 years ago. Murphy barely got off the bench last year.

I also hope we get some more contribution from Semi and Jones than you are anticipating but it's of course very difficult to know.

Like most, I expect Cook, Sulaimon, Hood and Parker to start w/ a hopeful eye towards Amile to lock down the 5th starting spot.

[roywhite]

I'm pretty sure we'll like Jabari Parker. A lot.

http://ballislife.com/mcdonalds-2013-practice-1/

Highlights from a McDonald's AA practice; Jabari is #22 in a white jersey...and some in a black jersey, too.
Gordon #32 looks very impressive, too.
The usual disclaimers about highlights and practice videos, but Jabari looks slimmer, and more athletic than we have seen since his summer injury.
Telep reportedly has also raved about his passing ability and basketball IQ.

[Skitzle]

If Andre Dawkins come back to Duke, he'll be in the 15-25 mpg range. He's not going to be competing for mop-up minutes.

There are two potential things you are saying:

1) If Dawkins is only getting mop up minutes, he will choose to play more significant minutes elsewhere.

2) Dawkins is good and experienced enough that if he chooses to stay he WILL get 15-25 minutes.

The first assumes he wants to play and that is more important to than Duke. The second assumes that he will be one of the top 8 players on this team. (I don't see K using a 9 man rotation getting 10+ min)

[Newton_14]

Someone with better recall will hopefully chime in, but I can't remember a time where K would have started so many 1st/2nd year players on the team as everyone is suggesting. K is a huge fan of playing the older guys, even if arguably less talented, because of the experience and communication they provide. Following that, most of the suggestions which have some combination of Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Marshall, Jefferson starting have too many youngin's. I think the only guaranteed starter is Cook followed closely by Sheed. After that, I think we'll see more upper class players.
I'd imagine the units more as follows:
Starters:
PG: Cook
Sg: Sheed with occassional spot starts by Thornton or Dawkins
SF: Dawkins and Parker getting the most starts
Low post: Hairston getting most starts at combination of PF/C with other starts taken by Amile and Marshall

Order of minutes played: I think we'll see the 3 seniors all in the top 6 in minutes played
Cook
Sheed
Thornton
Parker
Hairston
Dawkins (biggest question mark on playing time will be defensive quickness/focus)
Amile
Marshall
Hood

I'd expect Jones or Semi to redshirt.
I'd expect at least 1 transfer, but I won't mention names because I don't think that speculation on names is healthy for the team/players. As a fan of the team, I'd love all the players to stay, but I certainly will understand and support any player who feels it is in their interest personally, academically, and basketball wise to go to another school

Next year will be a little different than the norm in that two of the upperclassmen have been non-starters all 3 years (Tyler/Josh), and the third (Dawkins) would be coming off a Redshirt year for non-physical injury reasons.

Hood is going to start and going to play lots of minutes. He will be the age of a Junior. Parker is going to start and play lots of minutes, as are Cook and Rasheed. All will have to earn it in practice of course, but those 4 guys are uber-talented players. Hood is going to help this team in lots of ways and will be one of the leading scorers if not the leading scorer. He is that good. Parker is either the best or 2nd best incoming Freshman. Those guys play right away no matter where they go. Parker is that good as well. I will be shocked if those 4 guys plus Tyler Thornton do not lead in minutes per game. Tyler will get his minutes backing up the 1-3 spots.
K does love his Seniors and upperclassmen, but he also loves playing the best players no matter what, which is why guys like Kyrie and Austin played more minutes than some of the upperclassment ahead of them.


And Murphy is not transferring...:)

[FerryFor50]

I'm pretty sure we'll like Jabari Parker. A lot.

http://ballislife.com/mcdonalds-2013-practice-1/

Highlights from a McDonald's AA practice; Jabari is #32 in a white jersey
The usual disclaimers about highlights and practice videos, but Jabari looks slimmer, and more athletic than we have seen since his summer injury.
Telep reportedly has also raved about his passing ability and basketball IQ.

That Gordon kid is pretty darn good, too.

[roywhite]

That Gordon kid is pretty darn good, too.

Yeah, I edited my post to reflect correct jersey number....Gordon is #32, Jabari #22.
Agree about Gordon.

[jimsumner]

There are two potential things you are saying:

1) If Dawkins is only getting mop up minutes, he will choose to play more significant minutes elsewhere.

2) Dawkins is good and experienced enough that if he chooses to stay he WILL get 15-25 minutes.

The first assumes he wants to play and that is more important to than Duke. The second assumes that he will be one of the top 8 players on this team. (I don't see K using a 9 man rotation getting 10+ min)

The post assumes that a 2013-'14 Andre Dawkins will be good enough to play major minutes for Duke. This isn't a reach. He's been a major contributor to top-10 teams in the past. If he's added some consistency and enhanced his ability to get shots off the dribble, he can be a real force.

He's worked out outside the context of the Duke team, of course. But he's not been off-planet. Duke has ways of finding out what he's been working on and how it's been going. There's feedback, both ways.

I can see him playing the instant-offense-off-the-bench role so ably filled by David Henderson in 1984 and 1985, Billy McCaffrey down the stretch in 1991, Marty Clark in 1994, Jon Scheyer in 2008 and others. If he earns 20 mpg, he could score in double figures.

If he's not capable of playing that role, then he's probably better off exploring greener pastures.

But I think he is. I hope he comes back. If so, I'm fairly confident that he'll be a rotation player.

[killerleft]

Nine pages on next year, already? And I was going to try catching up on this thread sometime in October (even later if the football team is doing as well as I hope)!!!!!!:D

[dukenilnil]

Everyone (but me) seems to be putting Parker in pen at the PF position. Even as a stretch 4, I am not sure that is where he'll go.

1) He projects most likely as a SF in the pros. While that is not the determining factor, K has taken it into account before (noting the move to SF for Singler would help his draft stock)
2) He didn't want to play with Branden Dawson at Mich State saying they both played the same position. While Dawson has played some PF, he mostly plays SF with a little 2 guard thrown in.
3) He is generally listed as a SF in all of the materials on him.

I'd imagine he'd have to play some PF with depth concerns at the bigs, SF just seems more natural long term (to the extent K plays positions). This also puts Hood on the bench where I expect him to be. There is a lot of assumptions as well that Hood has the SF position locked down. Seems a big assumption for never seeing him play in a real game with Duke. While he has been touted as the best player on the team at times, I think that is more motivational stuff by K to the current guys than anything else. Telling everyone that someone else on the team is better pushes the guys who are eligible this year more to prove him wrong. We've all heard that line before as well - Murphy is a 4-year starter, best player in practice, etc., even starting early pre-season games. That didn't translate to a lot of time for him this year.

Everyone on here sounds a bit like the NBA scouts and execs who fall in love with the "potential" and "unproven talent" of high school players and 1 year college guys, ignoring the value that the Juniors and Seniors provide. I hope the Freshman and Sophomores next year are as lights out as everyone hopes, but I gotta tell ya, the thought of only 1 starter having 3 years in the Duke system (Cook), 2 Sophs (Sheed, Jefferson), and 2 guys seeing their first live action for Duke (Hood/Parker) being starters makes me nervous. In 2 years, I'd put decent money on Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Jefferson going through the regular season with 2 or fewer losses (of course the likelihood of all those guys returning is slim) but for this coming season, I see that team having flashes of brilliance intermixed with frustrating stretches of bad basketball (think of a lot of the Texas teams under Barnes).

[GGLC]

There is absolutely no way that Rodney Hood is not a starter next year, barring injury. He's as much of a lock as Cook, Sulaimon, and Parker.

[buddy]

Hood will play. I expect next year to be more of what K calls "basketball players" than 1-5 players. The team should have more overall speed than this year's. Great Duke teams of the past (2010 excepted) had speed, relied on defense to turn over the opposition and get runouts for layups or threes. We have a long history of being outrebounded, but that ignores the fact that we had so many steals and forced so many turnovers that other teams did not get the number of opportunities to provide us with rebounds. I expect next year's team to be more that style. I am reading this in conjunction with the "Big Man Transfer" thread. Without a dominant big man, we will be susceptible to the half court game, but if we can turnover the opposition and run, that may not matter. I excluded 2010 because, once Zoubek hit his stride, that was an excellent half court team. Doug Gottlieb was partially correct in his "alarmingly unathletic" comment, but that was made before Zoubek's coming out party. Once Zoubek showed he could dominate the post, the "alarmingly unathletic" became a defensive juggernaut that could thrive in either the half court or the full court.

[jimsumner]

Everyone (but me) seems to be putting Parker in pen at the PF position. Even as a stretch 4, I am not sure that is where he'll go.

1) He projects most likely as a SF in the pros. While that is not the determining factor, K has taken it into account before (noting the move to SF for Singler would help his draft stock)
2) He didn't want to play with Branden Dawson at Mich State saying they both played the same position. While Dawson has played some PF, he mostly plays SF with a little 2 guard thrown in.
3) He is generally listed as a SF in all of the materials on him.

I'd imagine he'd have to play some PF with depth concerns at the bigs, SF just seems more natural long term (to the extent K plays positions). This also puts Hood on the bench where I expect him to be. There is a lot of assumptions as well that Hood has the SF position locked down. Seems a big assumption for never seeing him play in a real game with Duke. While he has been touted as the best player on the team at times, I think that is more motivational stuff by K to the current guys than anything else. Telling everyone that someone else on the team is better pushes the guys who are eligible this year more to prove him wrong. We've all heard that line before as well - Murphy is a 4-year starter, best player in practice, etc., even starting early pre-season games. That didn't translate to a lot of time for him this year.

Everyone on here sounds a bit like the NBA scouts and execs who fall in love with the "potential" and "unproven talent" of high school players and 1 year college guys, ignoring the value that the Juniors and Seniors provide. I hope the Freshman and Sophomores next year are as lights out as everyone hopes, but I gotta tell ya, the thought of only 1 starter having 3 years in the Duke system (Cook), 2 Sophs (Sheed, Jefferson), and 2 guys seeing their first live action for Duke (Hood/Parker) being starters makes me nervous. In 2 years, I'd put decent money on Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Jefferson going through the regular season with 2 or fewer losses (of course the likelihood of all those guys returning is slim) but for this coming season, I see that team having flashes of brilliance intermixed with frustrating stretches of bad basketball (think of a lot of the Texas teams under Barnes).

Trivia question. What do Mark Alarie, Grant Hill, Tony Lang, Roshown McLeod, Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Dahntay Jones, Luol Deng and Kyle Singler have in common?

They all played some 4 at Duke and the 3/2 in the NBA.

So, playing the 4 at Duke isn't exactly the kiss of death for one's NBA career.

Jabari Parker projects as a nominal 4 in the Duke system, i.e. a 4 with a lot of freedom to run the floor, handle the ball, post up, exploit advantages whenever and wherever they develop.

Projecting Parker to be a starter and signficant contributor as a freshman is no less realistic than projecting the same for Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts, Kyle Singler, Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers, the only other consensus top-five recruits signed by Duke this millenium. [I'm excluding Shaun Livingston for obvious reasons] All of these guys started out of the gate and only McRoberts averged less than 13 ppg as a freshman.

And your expectation that Rodney Hood will not start is very much an outlier. Comparing Alex Murphy to either Parker or Hood is a flawed comparision, imo. Murphy was nowhere near as highly-regarded as Parker out of high school and he didn't come to Duke with a season under his belt as a starter at a high-level conference, as does Hood.

[Kedsy]

Everyone (but me) seems to be putting Parker in pen at the PF position. Even as a stretch 4, I am not sure that is where he'll go.

In a four-out, one-in system, the "PF" plays offense like a SF. He just has to guard the other team's PF. With the logjam of talent we have with SG/SF types, I don't think there's much question that Jabari will spend most of his time guarding opposing PFs. It just doesn't make any sense to have two of Josh, Amile, and Marshall on the floor together while six of Quinn/Rasheed/Rodney/Tyler/Jabari/Andre/Alex/Matt/Semi are on the bench. I mean, it may happen for a few minutes now and then, but it won't be our regular lineup.


This also puts Hood on the bench where I expect him to be.

While you are correct that people around here tend to think the players we haven't seen are better than they are and the players we're used to are worse than they are, I don't think that's the story with Rodney Hood. As several people have mentioned, he was an All Freshman performer in the SEC in 2012. Some people outside of Duke have projected him in the 2014 NBA draft. He's a real player. Add that to the fact that (despite never having previously played at Duke) all three of the other transfers Coach K has accepted have started and played big minutes their first year here, and I'd say your expectations are unrealistic.

[Ichabod Drain]

Everyone (but me) seems to be putting Parker in pen at the PF position. Even as a stretch 4, I am not sure that is where he'll go.

1) He projects most likely as a SF in the pros. While that is not the determining factor, K has taken it into account before (noting the move to SF for Singler would help his draft stock)
2) He didn't want to play with Branden Dawson at Mich State saying they both played the same position. While Dawson has played some PF, he mostly plays SF with a little 2 guard thrown in.
3) He is generally listed as a SF in all of the materials on him.

I'd imagine he'd have to play some PF with depth concerns at the bigs, SF just seems more natural long term (to the extent K plays positions). This also puts Hood on the bench where I expect him to be. There is a lot of assumptions as well that Hood has the SF position locked down. Seems a big assumption for never seeing him play in a real game with Duke. While he has been touted as the best player on the team at times, I think that is more motivational stuff by K to the current guys than anything else. Telling everyone that someone else on the team is better pushes the guys who are eligible this year more to prove him wrong. We've all heard that line before as well - Murphy is a 4-year starter, best player in practice, etc., even starting early pre-season games. That didn't translate to a lot of time for him this year.

Everyone on here sounds a bit like the NBA scouts and execs who fall in love with the "potential" and "unproven talent" of high school players and 1 year college guys, ignoring the value that the Juniors and Seniors provide. I hope the Freshman and Sophomores next year are as lights out as everyone hopes, but I gotta tell ya, the thought of only 1 starter having 3 years in the Duke system (Cook), 2 Sophs (Sheed, Jefferson), and 2 guys seeing their first live action for Duke (Hood/Parker) being starters makes me nervous. In 2 years, I'd put decent money on Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Jefferson going through the regular season with 2 or fewer losses (of course the likelihood of all those guys returning is slim) but for this coming season, I see that team having flashes of brilliance intermixed with frustrating stretches of bad basketball (think of a lot of the Texas teams under Barnes).

Quote from Jabari Himself "I'll replace what Ryan Kelly has done. I play the same position, we're about the same size. I can pick up what he laid down."


http://sports.chronicleblogs.com/2013/04/01/jabari-parker-shines-as-mcdonalds-all-american-festivities-begin/

[wk2109]

Everyone (but me) seems to be putting Parker in pen at the PF position. Even as a stretch 4, I am not sure that is where he'll go.

1) He projects most likely as a SF in the pros. While that is not the determining factor, K has taken it into account before (noting the move to SF for Singler would help his draft stock)
2) He didn't want to play with Branden Dawson at Mich State saying they both played the same position. While Dawson has played some PF, he mostly plays SF with a little 2 guard thrown in.
3) He is generally listed as a SF in all of the materials on him.

I'd imagine he'd have to play some PF with depth concerns at the bigs, SF just seems more natural long term (to the extent K plays positions). This also puts Hood on the bench where I expect him to be. There is a lot of assumptions as well that Hood has the SF position locked down. Seems a big assumption for never seeing him play in a real game with Duke. While he has been touted as the best player on the team at times, I think that is more motivational stuff by K to the current guys than anything else. Telling everyone that someone else on the team is better pushes the guys who are eligible this year more to prove him wrong. We've all heard that line before as well - Murphy is a 4-year starter, best player in practice, etc., even starting early pre-season games. That didn't translate to a lot of time for him this year.

Everyone on here sounds a bit like the NBA scouts and execs who fall in love with the "potential" and "unproven talent" of high school players and 1 year college guys, ignoring the value that the Juniors and Seniors provide. I hope the Freshman and Sophomores next year are as lights out as everyone hopes, but I gotta tell ya, the thought of only 1 starter having 3 years in the Duke system (Cook), 2 Sophs (Sheed, Jefferson), and 2 guys seeing their first live action for Duke (Hood/Parker) being starters makes me nervous. In 2 years, I'd put decent money on Cook, Sheed, Hood, Parker, Jefferson going through the regular season with 2 or fewer losses (of course the likelihood of all those guys returning is slim) but for this coming season, I see that team having flashes of brilliance intermixed with frustrating stretches of bad basketball (think of a lot of the Texas teams under Barnes).

Jabari said himself that he'd be taking on Ryan Kelly's role: "I'll replace what Ryan Kelly has done, I play the same position, we're about the same size. I can pick up what he laid down." (per https://twitter.com/DraftExpress)

I don't think his projected position in the NBA is a factor at all in what position he'll play at Duke. Kyle played 4/5 his freshman year out of necessity. Also, let's assume Jabari plays the 3 -- are you saying that there are 2 players on the roster bigger than Jabari who would both deserve to start over Rodney, Andre, or Tyler? Doesn't look like it from the way the roster is constituted right now. It would be terrific if we had talented enough bigs to slide Jabari to the 3, but I don't think we do.

And re: Rodney, I haven't seen him play since Countdown to Craziness, and there's no guarantee he will start at the 3, but from what he showed during his freshman year at Mississippi State and the skills he displayed at CTC (a 6'8" lefty with guard abilities), I think it's pretty likely that he's the frontrunner to start at the 3. If the best reason you can give for Rodney coming off the bench is that K has said positive things about other players who didn't end up starting, that's not a very compelling argument.

[MChambers]

In a four-out, one-in system, the "PF" plays offense like a SF. He just has to guard the other team's PF. With the logjam of talent we have with SG/SF types, I don't think there's much question that Jabari will spend most of his time guarding opposing PFs. It just doesn't make any sense to have two of Josh, Amile, and Marshall on the floor together while six of Quinn/Rasheed/Rodney/Tyler/Jabari/Andre/Alex/Matt/Semi are on the bench. I mean, it may happen for a few minutes now and then, but it won't be our regular lineup.
And the 4s he'll match up with in college will have size comparable to NBA 3s.

[Olympic Fan]

All this is fun, but rather meaningless.

Right now, K doesn't know what his 2014 rotation will look like. Heck, he doesn't know what his 2014 ROSTER will look like (Will it include Andre? Will there be a transfer? Will he add a fifth-year senior?).

Even if we were to assert that there won't be any unexpected additions/subtractions, he won know what next year's versions of this year's kids look like. We've seen guys like Chris Carrawell and Nolan Smith made huge off-season jumps. Just look at Quinn Cook's off-season improvement a year ago. I THINK Rasheed will improve to superstar status, but Amile is the guy I expect to make the biggest jump. But it might be Marshall ... we'll see.

I would count on Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker being frontline players next year. I'd be shocked if both aren't in the main rotation.

But how it fits together, I couldn't guess -- and I'd bet that at this point, neither does K. We'll have to see what happens to these guys in the offseason.

But I will add one more caveat that I add every year -- DON'T GET HUNG UP ON POSITIONS. The silliest stuff in this thread is concerns about whether Jabafri is a 3 or a 4 ... or Rodney is a 3 or a 2 (the position he'll play in the NBA). Except for his desire to use a point guard, I'd argue that K's teams are positionless. Marshall is the only center on the roster (at the moment). That doesn't mean that he starts at center. It might be a forward (Amile or Josh or Alex). Heck, as one poster suggested, we might play three guards (Cook, Sulaimon, Thornton) and two 6-8 wings (Hood and Parker).

PS Am I the only one who can't wait for the day in the distant future when Rodney Hood is in the NBA and takes it to the basket against the center for the Charlotte Bobcats?

[MCFinARL]

My philosphy, honed over 30+ years of watching K, is "Seeing is believing." Or, perhaps more accurately, "Not seeing on the court raises more than a few doubts."

Here's what I have seen:

Cook and Rasheed are gonna start and play a lot of minutes.

Tyler and Josh are gonna play 15-20 minutes a game no matter what. Josh get could more if he makes the starting lineup.

Here's what I conjecture (is this really a verb?):

Hood and Jabari, based on rep, have inside tracks at starting positions.

Amile, Alex and Marshall will get more minutes than they did this year (hard for Marshall to get fewer) and, as it always seems to happen, improve a heckuva lot with playing time. And, as the old Grouse has groused many times before, the most underrated player coming into a season is a veteran on the bench.

Here's is what I have no idea about:

Whether Andre Dawkins is through as a Blue Devil. If he gets his degree, he could play anywhere, including Duke, without sitting out.

Matt Jones and Semi will probably have good careers at Duke but have very uncertain prospects in 2014: they could surprise us or could just sit. And I don't think K knows. I sure don't.

If anyone will transfer.

If Duke picks up a fifth-year big off the college "waiver wire."

Who the fifth starter will be, assuming Cook, Rasheed, Hood and Jabari are all likely to start. Will if be Amile, Josh, Alex or Marshall? Possibly Andre? Or maybe a real surprise: Jones or Semi, which would enable us to retain a three-guard starting lineup and drive DBR crazy (Semi's a swing player).

Sagegrouse

Yes, yes it is a verb. And otherwise, solid analysis.

[Cameron]

Andre Dawkins will be a major impact player next year and will be one of the elite shooters in America. The fact that he will play significant minutes is not even up for discussion. He will not be a barely-used bench player. The kid has star potential and is one of the best, if not the best, spurt shooters Duke has had in years. Streaky, yes; deadly, certainly. And he will play. We are talking about a kid who dropped 26 points and six threes on Michigan State at the Garden in one of the biggest games of his junior season. He'll battle for a starting spot if we end up going small with Parker at the top of the lineup in certain situations.

As for Matt Jones, I've seen the kid play and I believe with his skill-set the staff will find a way to get him into the game more than some here believe. Save the math lesson, I don't particularly care about the minutes-to-player ratios. When I look at the kid, I see a Blue Devil perimeter prototype who can shoot the ball better than anybody else in his incoming class. Jones is going to be a gamer and will fight for floor time if he is on the active roster. I say this also fully believing that he will be ahead of Alex Murphy in the rotation. Murphy is kind of a wildcard; I have no idea what to expect from him or if he'll even be here at some point in the next couple of years. He'll have a hard time, in my view, seeing the floor being Marty Pocius lite.

[Ichabod Drain]

I'm not sure how Hood is unproven. He has a year of college basketball under his belt, a year starting in a power conference. He made the SEC All-freshman team in a year in which two of the best players in the country were SEC freshman. He's not just a workout-wonder. He's done it in real games.

I regarded him as somewhat unproven, not totally unproven. I think we can agree playing for Mississippi State is quite different from playing for Duke. He is not proven in the way any returning player is. That in no way means he won't be as good or better than the hype.

[roywhite]

All this is fun, but rather meaningless.

Right now, K doesn't know what his 2014 rotation will look like. Heck, he doesn't know what his 2014 ROSTER will look like (Will it include Andre? Will there be a transfer? Will he add a fifth-year senior?).

Even if we were to assert that there won't be any unexpected additions/subtractions, he won know what next year's versions of this year's kids look like. We've seen guys like Chris Carrawell and Nolan Smith made huge off-season jumps. Just look at Quinn Cook's off-season improvement a year ago. I THINK Rasheed will improve to superstar status, but Amile is the guy I expect to make the biggest jump. But it might be Marshall ... we'll see....

But how it fits together, I couldn't guess -- and I'd bet that at this point, neither does K. We'll have to see what happens to these guys in the offseason.

But I will add one more caveat that I add every year -- DON'T GET HUNG UP ON POSITIONS. The silliest stuff in this thread is concerns about whether Jabafri is a 3 or a 4 ... or Rodney is a 3 or a 2 (the position he'll play in the NBA). Except for his desire to use a point guard, I'd argue that K's teams are positionless. Marshall is the only center on the roster (at the moment). That doesn't mean that he starts at center. It might be a forward (Amile or Josh or Alex). Heck, as one poster suggested, we might play three guards (Cook, Sulaimon, Thornton) and two 6-8 wings (Hood and Parker).




Yeah, eager to see how it all unfolds.

Frankly, I like what seems to be Coach K's state of mind heading into the off-season -- he really liked the 2012-13 group, said he had still had good energy at the end of the season and wanted to play on. There have been years where he seemed very worn down by late season. He's also got to be a bit relieved not to have USA Basketball responsibilities this summer, next summer, and beyond.

And the master gets to put together a new puzzle next year, with new pieces. It's the kind of challenge that Mike Krzyzewski seems to love.

Get some rest, Coach, and hit the beach with the family.

You did a great job this year, and next year looks like fun!

[A-Tex Devil]

But I also like new things and change.

I readily admit we could be looking at 2007 all over again in some respects (loss of too many seniors, too many young guys), but the way I look at next year's team, is that we can unleash hell on perimeter team defense with our length. We'll still have trouble guarding penetrating PGs, and barring some huge leap by Marshall we will be as small as Duke has ever been. But it seems that next year's team could run with the best of them.

For the 2013-2014 squad to be truly elite, though, outside of Hood and Parker meeting expectations, Cook must continue to improve, and Rasheed and especially Amile will need to make similar, relative, leaps to what Cook did this year.

Amile is especially interesting to me. I thought he more than warranted minutes over Hairston after Kelly's return, and I was puzzled why he didn't get them (especially considering what he showed in the Creighton game).

But I love a lineup with Amile, Parker, Hood on the front line with Cook and Sulaimon at guard. It has some glaring weaknesses, but so did Memphis 2008 (and I'm not talking about free throws). That team was small, but just ran everyone else out of the building (other than KU). Now next year's Duke team doesn't have anything close to Derek Rose, but I think the rest of the group could be better.

[jimsumner]

I regarded him as somewhat unproven, not totally unproven. I think we can agree playing for Mississippi State is quite different from playing for Duke. He is not proven in the way any returning player is. That in no way means he won't be as good or better than the hype.

Perhaps. But I think we can also agree that his year in the SEC and a year of practice provides different preparation than Murphy's year of practice. And Mississippi State does play in a conference with Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, et.al. It's not like we're projecting Hood based on a season at Liberty.

People projecting Hood as a starter are basing that projection on a much different set of data points than people projecting Murphy as a starter going into this season. Based on what I've seen, based on my conversations with current Duke players, based on my conversations with the Duke coaches, I am quite confident in projecting Rodney Hood as a starter and impact player next season.

Dude has game.

[jcastranio]

Just a hunch, based on 36 years of Duke watching, but I think K will start his five best players. Now, "best" might relate to experience as well as skill set - so take that into account. While Tyler Thornton is very high on the list for K, at 6'1", I think he ends up coming off the bench. At this point - barring significant improvements - I don't see Alex or Marshall moving into the major minutes category. Now, the next year, their "junior" year, maybe so.

Starters (no position besides the point)

Cook
Rasheed
Hood
Parker
Jefferson

Key, experienced subs off the bench (minutes will vary by situation)
Thornton
Hairston
Dawkins

Minutes, but the time will depend on how they actually relate to the college game in November
Jones
Murphy

Total wild cards (could be anything - could be a total surprise)
Semi (totally based on the level of competition he faced in high school)
Marshall

[CDu]

One thing I heard on the radio this afternoon resonated with me. Adam Gold said that much of next season (at least the degree of success we experience) will depend upon Quinn Cook.*

As has been noted in other threads, Cook didn't have the best of weekends last weekend. It appeared that nerves got the better of him against MSU, and he was a bit hesitant against Louisville as well.

Next year's team will have a wealth of scoring threats, but I think it will be critical for Cook to become that break-you-down-off-the-dribble player (he showed signs of it early this year) in the Trey Burke mold. I'm not saying he needs to be a Player of the Year candidate, but he needs to influence the game more than he did in the second half of this year.

I'm hoping for a strong offseason for him to build up his confidence as a leader on the floor. If he can make the jump from just a pretty good PG to an elite PG, we'll be really something.

I have no doubt that Coach K will figure out our questions at C (likely either through a Jefferson/Parker combination at PF/C or through improvements in Marshall). But this team will still need a leader/playmaker at PG. Hopefully Cook is able to take on that role next year.

* Note: much of the rest of the stuff Gold said I felt was incorrect. It was just this point that I think is correct.

[Duvall]

I readily admit we could be looking at 2007 all over again in some respects (loss of too many seniors, too many young guys), but the way I look at next year's team, is that we can unleash hell on perimeter team defense with our length. We'll still have trouble guarding penetrating PGs, and barring some huge leap by Marshall we will be as small as Duke has ever been.

Will they, though? Duke is losing frontcourt height with the departure of Kelly and Mason, but gaining more backcourt size by replacing Curry with the 6-8 Hood. Even with an undersized center Duke's average and effective height should go up a bit next year, not down.


But I love a lineup with Amile, Parker, Hood on the front line with Cook and Sulaimon at guard. It has some glaring weaknesses, but so did Memphis 2008 (and I'm not talking about free throws). That team was small, but just ran everyone else out of the building (other than KU). Now next year's Duke team doesn't have anything close to Derek Rose, but I think the rest of the group could be better.

Yeah, if only Duke were adding a Simeon High legend to its lineup next year...

[Listen to Quants]

Do you honestly think offense is going to be a problem next year? I don't think those points will be so hard to "replace" at all. We're going to be a very high scoring team next season. Defense, of course, is another issue, but I have high hopes there as well.

The one place where we may have trouble "replacing" the seniors' contributions will be in their experience and savvy, knowledge of how to win and what it means to be a Duke player. That shouldn't be overlooked or undersold and is very important. To me, that's the biggest question mark for next season.



I spoke to Amile in Philadelphia last weekend, and he seemed really happy with the way his season has turned out. I'd be absolutely shocked if he was contemplating anything like you suggest. And Alex has already redshirted so would have to petition the NCAA for an extra year. I think you're way off base here.



From what I've seen, Marshall can run very well. I'm not as sure about Josh, though.



And the post about which you made this comment omitted Marshall from his list. We will have a very deep, very talented roster next season.



Here's the list of top five recruits at Duke over the past 15 years:

Elton Brand (injured, but started 18 of 21 healthy games; 23.5 mpg)
Jason Williams (34 starts; 34.0 mpg)
Luol Deng (32 starts; 31.1 mpg)
Josh McRoberts (31 starts; 24.5 mpg)
Kyle Singler (34 starts; 28.6 mpg)
Kyrie Irving (injured, but started 8 of 11 healthy games; 27.5 mpg)
Austin Rivers (33 starts; 33.2 mpg)

Obviously the past doesn't guarantee the future, but I'm very confident Jabari will start and get starter's minutes.

Your point seems right, top 5 guys are VERY likely to start, even in excellent programs. There may be a Duke exception, however, 1997 seems to have been the year before RSCI listing are available to me, but Chris Burgess was ranked #1 by USAToday when he signed, #2 by Gibbons or so said the Chronicle. I have read that his ranking did fall late and Brand's rose. Burgess, of course, didn't start very much.

[Billy Dat]

One thing I heard on the radio this afternoon resonated with me. Adam Gold said that much of next season (at least the degree of success we experience) will depend upon Quinn Cook.*

As has been noted in other threads, Cook didn't have the best of weekends last weekend. It appeared that nerves got the better of him against MSU, and he was a bit hesitant against Louisville as well.

Next year's team will have a wealth of scoring threats, but I think it will be critical for Cook to become that break-you-down-off-the-dribble player (he showed signs of it early this year) in the Trey Burke mold. I'm not saying he needs to be a Player of the Year candidate, but he needs to influence the game more than he did in the second half of this year.

I'm hoping for a strong offseason for him to build up his confidence as a leader on the floor. If he can make the jump from just a pretty good PG to an elite PG, we'll be really something.

I have no doubt that Coach K will figure out our questions at C (likely either through a Jefferson/Parker combination at PF/C or through improvements in Marshall). But this team will still need a leader/playmaker at PG. Hopefully Cook is able to take on that role next year.

* Note: much of the rest of the stuff Gold said I felt was incorrect. It was just this point that I think is correct.

If anyone needs to be forced to watch a video highlight reel of his facial expressions and reactions to bad plays and calls, it's Quinn. I think of the famous story of K doing the same thing to Hurley after his freshman year. K talks all the time about "next play" and "having a good face", and it all generally means not reacting with the same head hanging, pouty, frustrated and exasperated expression we saw from Quinn too often. I'd also like to see him tone down the celebratory woofing, ala the jersey popping in the face of the Dean Dome crowd after Rivers hit the game winner (although I may give him a pass for that one as it surely infuriated the cheese heads). It all speaks to having keen focus on the task at hand, and I look forward to him having more of it because he is a huge key to the team for the next 2 years.

[jay]

If anyone needs to be forced to watch a video highlight reel of his facial expressions and reactions to bad plays and calls, it's Quinn. I think of the famous story of K doing the same thing to Hurley after his freshman year. K talks all the time about "next play" and "having a good face", and it all generally means not reacting with the same head hanging, pouty, frustrated and exasperated expression we saw from Quinn too often. I'd also like to see him tone down the celebratory woofing, ala the jersey popping in the face of the Dean Dome crowd after Rivers hit the game winner (although I may give him a pass for that one as it surely infuriated the cheese heads). It all speaks to having keen focus on the task at hand, and I look forward to him having more of it because he is a huge key to the team for the next 2 years.

THANK YOU. I've been waiting for someone else to comment about this. I saw this several times in the Michigan State game, once especially when Q committed a turnover which resulted in a MSU fast break. Rather than putting his head down in order to hustle down the court and play defense, he did one of those "man, I can't believe I did that" head shakes, his shoulders just completely slumped and he started walking down the court. That's anything but Duke basketball.

I think the latter part of the season really got to Q, and I realize he's just a kid. But we really need him to have a laser-focused year next year if we hope to make some serious noise.

[jipops]

Rodney Hood was an All Freshman performer in the SEC in 2012. People (outside Duke) have been talking about him going pro after this coming season. If Alex improves to the point where he is able to challenge Rodney for playing time, we will be ridiculously talented.


I have heard the chatter/hype regarding Hood as well. My projection for Murphy may be based on hope more than being an actual projection. Because, yes, if Murphy is actually good enough next season to put a dent in Hood's minutes, then yea we'll be pretty damn good.

[Cameron]

But I also like new things and change.

I readily admit we could be looking at 2007 all over again in some respects (loss of too many seniors, too many young guys), but the way I look at next year's team, is that we can unleash hell on perimeter team defense with our length. We'll still have trouble guarding penetrating PGs, and barring some huge leap by Marshall we will be as small as Duke has ever been. But it seems that next year's team could run with the best of them.

For the 2013-2014 squad to be truly elite, though, outside of Hood and Parker meeting expectations, Cook must continue to improve, and Rasheed and especially Amile will need to make similar, relative, leaps to what Cook did this year.

Amile is especially interesting to me. I thought he more than warranted minutes over Hairston after Kelly's return, and I was puzzled why he didn't get them (especially considering what he showed in the Creighton game).

But I love a lineup with Amile, Parker, Hood on the front line with Cook and Sulaimon at guard. It has some glaring weaknesses, but so did Memphis 2008 (and I'm not talking about free throws). That team was small, but just ran everyone else out of the building (other than KU). Now next year's Duke team doesn't have anything close to Derek Rose, but I think the rest of the group could be better.

2006-07 or 2007-08?

Either way, I disagree. Next year's team will more closely resemble our 2003-04 squad, at least in terms of overall talent and depth, than either of those you mention, in my opinion. We will be loaded and we will be in the hunt for a national championship. We weren't even in the discussion in 2007 or 2008.

Yes, we are losing three valuable seniors, but we are also bringing in a fifth-year senior in Andre Dawkins, who has a national championship and vast experience to his name as a big-time scorer for Duke; the country's number one freshman, Jabari Parker; and an all-conference caliber forward with a Michael Dunleavy inside-out touch from the SEC in Rod Hood (I hope he's okay with me calling him that because I am going to start doing that right now). That is in conjunction with a talented returning cast that includes Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Tyler Thornton and Amile Jefferson. With the NBA Draft certain to claim many of his former classmates, Sulaimon will likely be the best sophomore in the country and a potential lottery pick in 2014. He's going to be super good. Group in the best shooter in the country in the class of 2013 in Matt Jones, Josh Hairston, Semi Ojeleye and Alex Murphy and you are looking at a roster that is crazy deep, much moreso than either of our 2007 or 2008 teams.

In essence, we'll have four starters returning to the squad next season (Cook, Sulaimon, Thornton and Dawkins), so it's not like we'll be totally devoid of experienced Duke players.

[Starter]

Jabari isn't exactly delicate. His playing weight is like 225, and he's gotten a whole lot bigger than that during times when he's had injuries. Not to mention, playing someone as mobile and well-rounded at the 4 spot creates serious offensive mismatches. (Deng and Dunleavy were basically de facto power forwards for Duke teams, and that worked out just fine.) I actually would think Parker is as much set in stone starting at power forward as Quinn Cook is at point guard.

Apologies to a previous poster, but I don't see how you can possibly assess this situation without some very plausible estimates. (With the caveat that I've never done this since I'm terrible at math! And that maybe Krzyzewski adds some heft up front via 5th-year senior, though that doesn't seem like his style.)

-- Cook averaged 33 minutes this year, Sulaimon about 29. Let's assume Cook stays around the same and Sulaimon bumps up a bit to 32 with no Curry.
-- Hood... maybe 29 mpg? (That's what Dahntay Jones got his first year at Duke in a similar situation and rotation.)
-- Thornton played 22 mpg this year, which seems about right.
-- That puts us at 112 out of a possible 120 backcourt minutes from 1-3.

-- Then you have 80 frontcourt minutes. Deng played 31 minutes per game, so let's give that to Parker. (I actually think it might be conservative, but still.)
-- Hairston, maybe 15? That's a slight bump from this year.
-- I'm going to be optimistic and give Jefferson 20; you can reverse that and just figure he and Hairston play a combined 35.
-- That leaves 14 minutes up front.

If you add that up and figure Duke plays very small occasionally -- or more than occasionally -- it amounts to 22 available minutes to be split between Dawkins, Matt Jones, Ojelaye, Murphy and Marshall Plumlee. So Dawkins can definitely play 15-25 -- he played 22 mpg in 2011-12 -- but that means none of the rest of these guys really play much, if at all. Dawkins also did that on a team with a less crowded wing situation, and he's now coming off a year away from the program and might still be dealing with some of the same issues he was before.

I'd love to see Dawkins come back and become a major contributor after all of his tribulations. And I'd love to see Jones carve out immediate playing time; I've read some very good things about him and look forward to seeing him in person next weekend at the Jordan Classic. But available minutes aren't going to come out of the sky, and Krzyzewski isn't exactly a coach who tends to go 10-deep or something. So long story short, I guess we'll just have to see how it shakes out.

[A-Tex Devil]

Will they, though? Duke is losing frontcourt height with the departure of Kelly and Mason, but gaining more backcourt size by replacing Curry with the 6-8 Hood. Even with an undersized center Duke's average and effective height should go up a bit next year, not down.



Yeah, if only Duke were adding a Simeon High legend to its lineup next year...

Touche.

As for size, sure, we are bigger in the backcourt, but unless MPIII improves, we really don't have a rim protector or a great rebounder coming back. That's kinda why I make the Memphis comparison -- although perhaps we'll be so athletic that Amile/Parker/Hood can all combine to adequately protect the rim. My two big worries next year are both on the defensive end and related -- interior defense and preventing dribble penetration. Maybe we'll be awesome at it. Who knows at this point.

[A-Tex Devil]

2006-07 or 2007-08?

Either way, I disagree. Next year's team will more closely resemble our 2003-04 squad, at least in terms of overall talent and depth, than either of those you mention, in my opinion. We will be loaded and we will be in the hunt for a national championship. We weren't even in the discussion in 2007 or 2008.

Yes, we are losing three valuable seniors, but we are also bringing in a fifth-year senior in Andre Dawkins, who has a national championship and vast experience to his name as a big-time scorer for Duke; the country's number one freshman, Jabari Parker; and an all-conference caliber forward with a Michael Dunleavy inside-out touch from the SEC in Rod Hood (I hope he's okay with me calling him that because I am going to start doing that right now). That is in conjunction with a talented returning cast that includes Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Tyler Thornton and Amile Jefferson. With the NBA Draft certain to claim many of his former classmates, Sulaimon will likely be the best sophomore in the country and a potential lottery pick in 2014. He's going to be super good. Group in the best shooter in the country in the class of 2013 in Matt Jones, Josh Hairston, Semi Ojeleye and Alex Murphy and you are looking at a roster that is crazy deep, much moreso than either of our 2007 or 2008 teams.

In essence, we'll have four starters returning to the squad next season (Cook, Sulaimon, Thornton and Dawkins), so it's not like we'll be totally devoid of experienced Duke players.

I just think when you lose that much senior scoring and production the beta on the low end (i.e., floor) is much worse than fans are willing to admit. Will it be 2007, 2000 or 2011 (pre-Kyrie injury)? I think any of those projections are reasonable.

Like I said in my previous post, I am wildly optimistic. I think this could be a 2008 Memphis type team with not as good of a PG and better everywhere else. Run, run, run, press, press, press. As far as our depth, I'll believe we'll be a deep team (beyond an 8 man rotation by ACC play) once I see it. I would bet even money odds right now that three of Murphy/Ojeleye/Jones/Dawkins don't break 5 minutes a game in ACC play.

[clinresga]

But I will add one more caveat that I add every year -- DON'T GET HUNG UP ON POSITIONS. The silliest stuff in this thread is concerns about whether Jabafri is a 3 or a 4 ... or Rodney is a 3 or a 2 (the position he'll play in the NBA). Except for his desire to use a point guard, I'd argue that K's teams are positionless. Marshall is the only center on the roster (at the moment). That doesn't mean that he starts at center. It might be a forward (Amile or Josh or Alex). Heck, as one poster suggested, we might play three guards (Cook, Sulaimon, Thornton) and two 6-8 wings (Hood and Parker).



I understand the point you're making--that splitting hairs can get tiresome, and not very productive. Is he a big 3 or a small 4 etc etc. And agreed that the old school 1-2-3-4-5 categorization is more commonly violated now--i.e. is LeBron a stretch 4, a point forward, a point center etc.

But I don't think that you can say that "K's teams are positionless." If nothing else, this ignores the fact that your team must defend against another team. So, to take your example, even if you might want Rodney at the 2 offensively, there is no way that, at 6-8, he could guard an ultra-mobile, slashing true 2 guard--Victor Oladipo, Vander Blue. Similarly, you might want (and we might be forced to use) Rodney at the 5--but up against a Cody Zeller or Alex Len, that 4-5 inch disadvantage will be real.

I think that K's teams in general are as positional as most others. This year's team featured a true 1 a classic 2, a stretch 4, and a classic 5. As is often the case, the one place Duke tends to be somewhat positionless is at the 3, often going with a three guard lineup. But positions are still relevant as long as the opposing teams continue to feature typical lineups. Next year we might be forced to use an out-of-position 4 as our 5--but I'd argue that's out of necessity, not choice. I'm old school, and I'd rather go to war with a real, 6-10 or 7-0 post presence, and if the right one were available, I suspect K would too.

[A-Tex Devil]

I think that K's teams in general are as positional as most others. This year's team featured a true 1 a classic 2, a stretch 4, and a classic 5. As is often the case, the one place Duke tends to be somewhat positionless is at the 3, often going with a three guard lineup. But positions are still relevant as long as the opposing teams continue to feature typical lineups. Next year we might be forced to use an out-of-position 4 as our 5--but I'd argue that's out of necessity, not choice. I'm old school, and I'd rather go to war with a real, 6-10 or 7-0 post presence, and if the right one were available, I suspect K would too.

This is a good post. Even if we can be amoeba-like on offense, we still need someone to guard the post, man the ball, etc. on defense. Now, I think Duke will have multiple people that can guard multiple positions next year, and can switch at will in its man to man around the perimeter. I hope that between all of our 6' 8" forwards that one or more can emerge as a great weak side rim defender like Shane Battier did. But where is the guy that is going to guard the big bodies next year, whether they are of the Nix/DeJuan Blair, or the Zeller/Len variety (or whoever will play those roles in CBB next year)? Also, who is going to guard the quick as hell, combo back courts like we just saw with Louisville? I think we'll be better defensively next year, but we will need to use our strengths even more next year to hide our weaknesses.

[GGLC]

Jabari isn't exactly delicate. His playing weight is like 225, and he's gotten a whole lot bigger than that during times when he's had injuries. Not to mention, playing someone as mobile and well-rounded at the 4 spot creates serious offensive mismatches. (Deng and Dunleavy were basically de facto power forwards for Duke teams, and that worked out just fine.) I actually would think Parker is as much set in stone starting at power forward as Quinn Cook is at point guard.

Apologies to a previous poster, but I don't see how you can possibly assess this situation without some very plausible estimates. (With the caveat that I've never done this since I'm terrible at math! And that maybe Krzyzewski adds some heft up front via 5th-year senior, though that doesn't seem like his style.)

-- Cook averaged 33 minutes this year, Sulaimon about 29. Let's assume Cook stays around the same and Sulaimon bumps up a bit to 32 with no Curry.
-- Hood... maybe 29 mpg? (That's what Dahntay Jones got his first year at Duke in a similar situation and rotation.)
-- Thornton played 22 mpg this year, which seems about right.
-- That puts us at 112 out of a possible 120 backcourt minutes from 1-3.

-- Then you have 80 frontcourt minutes. Deng played 31 minutes per game, so let's give that to Parker. (I actually think it might be conservative, but still.)
-- Hairston, maybe 15? That's a slight bump from this year.
-- I'm going to be optimistic and give Jefferson 20; you can reverse that and just figure he and Hairston play a combined 35.
-- That leaves 14 minutes up front.

If you add that up and figure Duke plays very small occasionally -- or more than occasionally -- it amounts to 22 available minutes to be split between Dawkins, Matt Jones, Ojelaye, Murphy and Marshall Plumlee. So Dawkins can definitely play 15-25 -- he played 22 mpg in 2011-12 -- but that means none of the rest of these guys really play much, if at all. Dawkins also did that on a team with a less crowded wing situation, and he's now coming off a year away from the program and might still be dealing with some of the same issues he was before.

I'd love to see Dawkins come back and become a major contributor after all of his tribulations. And I'd love to see Jones carve out immediate playing time; I've read some very good things about him and look forward to seeing him in person next weekend at the Jordan Classic. But available minutes aren't going to come out of the sky, and Krzyzewski isn't exactly a coach who tends to go 10-deep or something. So long story short, I guess we'll just have to see how it shakes out.

Great post. I've been around since the juliovision days but don't know how to give sporks, so no sporks for you, but I agree with every word.

[BobbyFan]

Your point seems right, top 5 guys are VERY likely to start, even in excellent programs. There may be a Duke exception, however, 1997 seems to have been the year before RSCI listing are available to me, but Chris Burgess was ranked #1 by USAToday when he signed, #2 by Gibbons or so said the Chronicle. I have read that his ranking did fall late and Brand's rose. Burgess, of course, didn't start very much.

Burgess was not a consensus top 5 by the end of his senior year. Brand was, and perhaps Battier. McGrady had shot up to the top of the list, and Lamar Odom and Baron Davis were also top 5. Larry Hughes may have been another one.

[jv001]

One thing I heard on the radio this afternoon resonated with me. Adam Gold said that much of next season (at least the degree of success we experience) will depend upon Quinn Cook.*

As has been noted in other threads, Cook didn't have the best of weekends last weekend. It appeared that nerves got the better of him against MSU, and he was a bit hesitant against Louisville as well.

Next year's team will have a wealth of scoring threats, but I think it will be critical for Cook to become that break-you-down-off-the-dribble player (he showed signs of it early this year) in the Trey Burke mold. I'm not saying he needs to be a Player of the Year candidate, but he needs to influence the game more than he did in the second half of this year.

I'm hoping for a strong offseason for him to build up his confidence as a leader on the floor. If he can make the jump from just a pretty good PG to an elite PG, we'll be really something.

I have no doubt that Coach K will figure out our questions at C (likely either through a Jefferson/Parker combination at PF/C or through improvements in Marshall). But this team will still need a leader/playmaker at PG. Hopefully Cook is able to take on that role next year.

* Note: much of the rest of the stuff Gold said I felt was incorrect. It was just this point that I think is correct.

You pretty much sum up all my thoughts on Quinn Cook and our expectations for next bb season. When Ryan went down with his foot injury, Quinn was asked to score more and he did just that for the most part. But it came at the expense of distributing the basketball. His assists to turnovers were way off from early season games against very good teams. Like I said in another post, it was in his head. Too much thinking made him doubt himself. Thus the head droop and sulking. Quinn has the talent to be an elite point guard, but he needs to do some head scratching this offseason. Get with Nolan and even maybe Kyrie to help with this. If he plays the way he did at the end of this year, we may see Rasheed at the point for some minutes. The point guard position is the key to our success next year. At least imho. GoDuke!

[A-Tex Devil]

Burgess was not a consensus top 5 by the end of his senior year. Brand was, and perhaps Battier. McGrady had shot up to the top of the list, and Lamar Odom and Baron Davis were also top 5. Larry Hughes may have been another one.

Hughes, Davis and Odom were the previous year (Kobe's year), I believe.

[jimsumner]

Hughes, Davis and Odom were the previous year (Kobe's year), I believe.

Baron Davis was in the same class as Burgess. In fact, for awhile it looked like Davis rather than Avery would be Duke's point guard in that class.

[luvdahops]

Hughes, Davis and Odom were the previous year (Kobe's year), I believe.

Hughes was in the same class (HS '97, frosh in '97-98) as the 3 Bs

[A-Tex Devil]

Hughes, Davis and Odom were the previous year (Kobe's year), I believe.

I am way off on this. Whoops. Sorry about that.

[OldSchool]

I think a lot of folks here are selling Marshall short (and he ain’t short!). After his foot injury, it looked like his bodyfat percentage crept up and he didn’t seem to have the same quickness and bounce he showed before that. And not having a lot of playing time with the starters, in the short times he was in he simply wasn’t integrated into what the team chemistry had become. As K shortened his rotation as the season went on, Marshall ended up with little time.

If Marshall stays healthy and has a good summer and preseason, I expect him to start at the 5 position. I think our 4-5 will be:

4. Jabari backed up by Amile
5. Marshall backed up by Amile and Josh

I think with his size and athleticism, Marshall will do a good job on rebounds, screens and protecting the rim and will bring something none of the other smaller players can bring. Having said that, I expect Amile to get as many or more minutes than Marshall because he is backing up both positions and because of the inevitable rite of passage big men through with ACC refs and fouls. Zoubs, Miles and Mason all went through the learning curve as to how to stay on the court and minimize bad fouls and Marshall with have to go through this.

Josh will continue to get significant minutes when Marshall is not available or not playing well and Amile is not strong enough to handle a particular matchup.

I agree with the sentiment expressed above as to the importance of Quinn’s play to our success next season. At his size, he needs to get much stronger and he needs to make another big improvement in his defense next year versus this year.

[Billy Dat]

You pretty much sum up all my thoughts on Quinn Cook and our expectations for next bb season. When Ryan went down with his foot injury, Quinn was asked to score more and he did just that for the most part. But it came at the expense of distributing the basketball. His assists to turnovers were way off from early season games against very good teams. Like I said in another post, it was in his head. Too much thinking made him doubt himself. Thus the head droop and sulking. Quinn has the talent to be an elite point guard, but he needs to do some head scratching this offseason. Get with Nolan and even maybe Kyrie to help with this. If he plays the way he did at the end of this year, we may see Rasheed at the point for some minutes. The point guard position is the key to our success next year. At least imho. GoDuke!

Here's a really interesting ESPN True Hoop video discussion of how college ball differs from the NBA, specifically in regards to point guard play:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/56095/truehoop-tv-thorpe-on-watching-ncaa

It reminded me a lot of how Quinn can sometimes play, not being aggressive enough off screening action, etc. We need him to be in attack mode to both aid his own offense and to keep the defense honest so that he can set up other players.

[clinresga]

I think a lot of folks here are selling Marshall short (and he ain’t short!). After his foot injury, it looked like his bodyfat percentage crept up and he didn’t seem to have the same quickness and bounce he showed before that. And not having a lot of playing time with the starters, in the short times he was in he simply wasn’t integrated into what the team chemistry had become. As K shortened his rotation as the season went on, Marshall ended up with little time.

If Marshall stays healthy and has a good summer and preseason, I expect him to start at the 5 position. I think our 4-5 will be:

4. Jabari backed up by Amile
5. Marshall backed up by Amile and Josh

I think with his size and athleticism, Marshall will do a good job on rebounds, screens and protecting the rim and will bring something none of the other smaller players can bring. Having said that, I expect Amile to get as many or more minutes than Marshall because he is backing up both positions and because of the inevitable rite of passage big men through with ACC refs and fouls. Zoubs, Miles and Mason all went through the learning curve as to how to stay on the court and minimize bad fouls and Marshall with have to go through this.


You're an optimist (and I hope you're right!).

The way I see it, this year was basically a second redshirt year for Marshall. So he's starting from scratch. While I know it's not fair to automatically assume he'll follow in his brothers' footsteps, it is fair to note that both Miles and Mason really didn't reach full potential until their senior years. Certainly the leap in performance that Mason showed this year was dramatic--and that took four years! So while Marshall is big, and clearly has some talent, to expect him to come in essentially as a freshman (yes, I know he's practiced with the team for two years, but boy, that didn't really show this season, did it?), and to be the starting center, is just unrealistic in my mind. Maybe in two or even three years, he'll be another dominant, All American center, but I just don't see him making that leap in the coming season. So, for better or worse, I'm in the "Amile/Josh/Marshall/Jabari center by committee" camp. Not happy about it--I'd love an old school 5--but you get what you get.

But--I still think we can compete with anyone next year. Center or not.

[Newton_14]

You're an optimist (and I hope you're right!).

The way I see it, this year was basically a second redshirt year for Marshall. So he's starting from scratch. While I know it's not fair to automatically assume he'll follow in his brothers' footsteps, it is fair to note that both Miles and Mason really didn't reach full potential until their senior years. Certainly the leap in performance that Mason showed this year was dramatic--and that took four years! So while Marshall is big, and clearly has some talent, to expect him to come in essentially as a freshman (yes, I know he's practiced with the team for two years, but boy, that didn't really show this season, did it?), and to be the starting center, is just unrealistic in my mind. Maybe in two or even three years, he'll be another dominant, All American center, but I just don't see him making that leap in the coming season. So, for better or worse, I'm in the "Amile/Josh/Marshall/Jabari center by committee" camp. Not happy about it--I'd love an old school 5--but you get what you get.

But--I still think we can compete with anyone next year. Center or not.

I think you are being unfair to both Miles and Mason here. Miles was a solid contributor in 3 of his 4 years, Mason was for all 4 years. Mason was one of the main focal points of the offense for the first time this year. Miles was never a focal point of the offense. Both helped the team in other ways for most of their careers.

The injury to Marshall was a huge setback this year. It derailed his season for the most part, and he was playing behind an All-American who played 38-40 mpg most nights which also hurt his chances to see the floor. Brothers aside, players run their own race. He could make a big jump over the summer, or he could need more time. I am currently in the camp that the game needs to slow down for him, he needs to learn to channel the energy into positive play, and that may or may not happen by next year. Thus my prediction that Amile will start at center. I do hope Marshall proves me wrong and can earn that starting center spot, but he is so different than his brothers it is not really fair to compare them. I for one will be thrilled if he can replicate next year what Miles did as a Soph. That would greatly help next season's team.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I think you are being unfair to both Miles and Mason here. Miles was a solid contributor in 3 of his 4 years, Mason was for all 4 years. Mason was one of the main focal points of the offense for the first time this year. Miles was never a focal point of the offense. Both helped the team in other ways for most of their careers.

The injury to Marshall was a huge setback this year. It derailed his season for the most part, and he was playing behind an All-American who played 38-40 mpg most nights which also hurt his chances to see the floor. Brothers aside, players run their own race. He could make a big jump over the summer, or he could need more time. I am currently in the camp that the game needs to slow down for him, he needs to learn to channel the energy into positive play, and that may or may not happen by next year. Thus my prediction that Amile will start at center. I do hope Marshall proves me wrong and can earn that starting center spot, but he is so different than his brothers it is not really fair to compare them. I for one will be thrilled if he can replicate next year what Miles did as a Soph. That would greatly help next season's team.

I also think to expect Marshall to start next year or average 20+ min is a stretch considering his utter invisibility this year.

However, I do see him as a situational weapon that we can deploy as needed when playing overly large frontcourts or if we have foul trouble from Amile and Josh. I think 5-10 mpg is more realistic for next year. I mean, he is still just a Sophomore so he has plenty of time to grow into a starting role.

[OldSchool]

You're an optimist (and I hope you're right!).

The way I see it, this year was basically a second redshirt year for Marshall. So he's starting from scratch. While I know it's not fair to automatically assume he'll follow in his brothers' footsteps, it is fair to note that both Miles and Mason really didn't reach full potential until their senior years. Certainly the leap in performance that Mason showed this year was dramatic--and that took four years! So while Marshall is big, and clearly has some talent, to expect him to come in essentially as a freshman (yes, I know he's practiced with the team for two years, but boy, that didn't really show this season, did it?), and to be the starting center, is just unrealistic in my mind. Maybe in two or even three years, he'll be another dominant, All American center, but I just don't see him making that leap in the coming season. So, for better or worse, I'm in the "Amile/Josh/Marshall/Jabari center by committee" camp. Not happy about it--I'd love an old school 5--but you get what you get.

But--I still think we can compete with anyone next year. Center or not.

I agree that Marshall next year will not be nearly as good as Marshall in his senior year.

But a main reason for my expectation for Marshall to start is that we don't have to have that from him next year.

With Jabari, Rodney and Rasheed (and Quinn if he continues to improve, and not to mention other players who are capable of filling the bucket) we should have plenty of scoring from the other 3 (4) positions. We don't need Marshall to score 10-foot skyhooks or sophisticated drop-step up-and-unders (or even throwing down alley-oops).

We just need solid footwork, rebounds, screens and a defensive presence at the rim. Given his combination of size and athleticism, just providing those basic fundamentals will be providing something at the 5 no one else on the team can give.

[clinresga]

I think you are being unfair to both Miles and Mason here. Miles was a solid contributor in 3 of his 4 years, Mason was for all 4 years. Mason was one of the main focal points of the offense for the first time this year. Miles was never a focal point of the offense. Both helped the team in other ways for most of their careers.

The injury to Marshall was a huge setback this year. It derailed his season for the most part, and he was playing behind an All-American who played 38-40 mpg most nights which also hurt his chances to see the floor. Brothers aside, players run their own race. He could make a big jump over the summer, or he could need more time. I am currently in the camp that the game needs to slow down for him, he needs to learn to channel the energy into positive play, and that may or may not happen by next year. Thus my prediction that Amile will start at center. I do hope Marshall proves me wrong and can earn that starting center spot, but he is so different than his brothers it is not really fair to compare them. I for one will be thrilled if he can replicate next year what Miles did as a Soph. That would greatly help next season's team.

I really think we're saying the same thing. I don't mean to write off Miles and Mason's contributions earlier in their careers, or to claim that they didn't help the team. I just think that if we are really going to compete at the level of a National Championship, we need more than than, say, Miles as a sophomore, out of the 5 position. I don't in any way expect Marshall to perform like Mason as a senior, and I won't be disappointed if he doesn't. Hey, I want to compete for the Championship in 2015, and 2016, so that's when Marshall can strut his stuff. But, for 2014, I think we need our "center by committee" to step it up big time. I want Amile to continue to grow into his potential, Josh to step in and do his blue collar thing when needed, and Jabari to use his superior athleticism and basketball IQ to hold his own at the 5 when needed. I want to win it all next year.

[Newton_14]

I really think we're saying the same thing. I don't mean to write off Miles and Mason's contributions earlier in their careers, or to claim that they didn't help the team. I just think that if we are really going to compete at the level of a National Championship, we need more than than, say, Miles as a sophomore, out of the 5 position. I don't in any way expect Marshall to perform like Mason as a senior, and I won't be disappointed if he doesn't. Hey, I want to compete for the Championship in 2015, and 2016, so that's when Marshall can strut his stuff. But, for 2014, I think we need our "center by committee" to step it up big time. I want Amile to continue to grow into his potential, Josh to step in and do his blue collar thing when needed, and Jabari to use his superior athleticism and basketball IQ to hold his own at the 5 when needed. I want to win it all next year.

Thanks for clarifying. My only disagreement then is I feel as good as we will be with PG/Guards/Forwards, were we to get a contribution from Marshall that resembles what Miles did as a Soph, we could win the National Title. Miles started 25 games that year, and stayed in the rotation even after Zoubs became a beast down the stretch.

We won't need anymore scoring from Marshall than what Miles gave that season, we just need rebounding and defense from him on a similar level. That combined with an improved Amile and improved Hairston would make me estatic about our chances.

Does that make better sense?

[Mcluhan]

First, some reminders, based on a lot of precedent:


We're talking about Coach K. Throughout the season he will be working towards a fairly tight rotation of maybe 7.5 players. Love it or hate it, this is what he does. Though it's fun to spend the offseason dreaming up ways of getting minutes for 10 guys, this almost never happens;
Three guys will be expected to play basically 37-40 minutes;
Coach K is very unlikely to embrace any position 'by committee' in the way 'by committee' is usually intended.


I see these as the two likeliest starting lineups:

1. Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari, Amile.

Jabari and Amile will be interchangeable big men. I think people are reluctant to slot Amile in because he doesn't look like a center but (a) he has an unusually good feel for rebounds and spacing in the post, (b) he will bulk up, if not grow, and (c) he shows great potential as a leader/communicator. It's hard to understand putting Marshall at his level or ahead of him at this point.
You don't necessarily need a true center every night in college ball. And with Rodney at 6'9", this is a tall lineup.
Seth was a favorite of mine, but he was something of a defensive liability, especially with the bum leg. Moving Rasheed to the 2-guard spot makes us bigger and better defensively.


2. Quinn, Rasheed, Andre?, Rodney, Jabari/Amile?

This one has more question marks, but it's basically the lineup in which Rodney is our Stretch Forward.
The 3 and 5 spots are really up for grabs.
This lineup could have four 3-point threats.


Additionally:

Tyler and Josh will be our super subs, and what may be really different this year is that they may well be captains. You know Tyler will make his way into the starting lineup at some point at any of the three perimeter spots;
I can also see the possibility that Tyler or Josh will become regular starters, because of the great things we know they bring, but my hunch is that such a move would be symptomatic of a surprising weakness somewhere;
Alex and Andre are huge question marks. It's really hard to predict how much time they might carve out;
You never know, but I'd be surprised if there were times when we wanted Marshall in the game instead of Amile, Jabari, or even a senior Josh.
The other freshman are huge question marks. Players come in every year with lots of comparisons that get us excited, but you never know how ready they are until the season starts.


We have a lot of players! And I think we're going to be good!

[Cameron]

I just think when you lose that much senior scoring and production the beta on the low end (i.e., floor) is much worse than fans are willing to admit. Will it be 2007, 2000 or 2011 (pre-Kyrie injury)? I think any of those projections are reasonable.

Like I said in my previous post, I am wildly optimistic. I think this could be a 2008 Memphis type team with not as good of a PG and better everywhere else. Run, run, run, press, press, press. As far as our depth, I'll believe we'll be a deep team (beyond an 8 man rotation by ACC play) once I see it. I would bet even money odds right now that three of Murphy/Ojeleye/Jones/Dawkins don't break 5 minutes a game in ACC play.

None of us know what will happen next season, but do you really believe that a fifth-year senior Andre Dawkins, who had four of Duke's 13 highest individual scoring outputs in 2011-12 (more than any other Blue Devil, including Rivers, Curry and Kelly) and averaged more than 22 minutes per game, is going to play three or four minutes per night in ACC play? I strongly disagree. Andre will be our best shooter by a mile. He will challenge for starter's minutes and I wouldn't be surprised to see him score more than 25 on multiple occasions. Even as a sixth man, I think Andre will finish as one of our top four scorers.

[Ichabod Drain]

First, some reminders, based on a lot of precedent:


We're talking about Coach K. Throughout the season he will be working towards a fairly tight rotation of maybe 7.5 players. Love it or hate it, this is what he does. Though it's fun to spend the offseason dreaming up ways of getting minutes for 10 guys, this almost never happens;
Three guys will be expected to play basically 37-40 minutes;
Coach K is very unlikely to embrace any position 'by committee' in the way 'by committee' is usually intended.



I don't belive we have had a player average 37 mpg since JJ Redicks senior year. Scheyer came close in 2010 but that's it.

[CDu]

I don't belive we have had a player average 37 mpg since JJ Redicks senior year. Scheyer came close in 2010 but that's it.

Yup. In fact, we've had only 5 players (Redick in '05 and '06, McRoberts in '07, Scheyer/Singler/Smith in '10) average even 35 mpg since Duhon graduated.

Now, I don't think we're going to suddenly go to a 10-man rotation, but I'd be shocked if we had even one player average 35 mpg next year.

[AtlDuke72]

None of us know what will happen next season, but do you really believe that a fifth-year senior Andre Dawkins, who had four of Duke's 13 highest individual scoring outputs in 2011-12 (more than any other Blue Devil, including Rivers, Curry and Kelly) and averaged more than 22 minutes per game, is going to play three or four minutes per night in ACC play? I strongly disagree. Andre will be our best shooter by a mile. He will challenge for starter's minutes and I wouldn't be surprised to see him score more than 25 on multiple occasions. Even as a sixth man, I think Andre will finish as one of our top four scorers.

Andre sat out the whole year and did not practice with the team. I can't remember a similar situation. While I hope he comes back as if he never missed a beat, I think that is unrealistic. I wish the best for him, but I will be surprised if he plays very much.

[CDu]

Andre sat out the whole year and did not practice with the team. I can't remember a similar situation. While I hope he comes back as if he never missed a beat, I think that is unrealistic. I wish the best for him, but I will be surprised if he plays very much.

Tyler Haws missed 2 years on a Mormon mission. He came back and averaged 21.7 ppg this year. Dawkins' one-year absence (but with the ability to work out regularly and play basketball at his leisure - something Mormon's can't do on their missions) won't be nearly as detrimental. And remember: none of the guys on next year's team have practiced with next year's team yet, so he isn't behind in that regard. And Dawkins has 3 years of experience in Duke's practices. I don't think he'll have trouble catching up.

That doesn't mean that Dawkins will come back. He may, for whatever reason, decide to go elsewhere. But if he does decide to come back, I'll be quite surprised if he isn't an integral part of the rotation.

[clinresga]

None of us know what will happen next season, but do you really believe that a fifth-year senior Andre Dawkins, who had four of Duke's 13 highest individual scoring outputs in 2011-12 (more than any other Blue Devil, including Rivers, Curry and Kelly) and averaged more than 22 minutes per game, is going to play three or four minutes per night in ACC play? I strongly disagree. Andre will be our best shooter by a mile. He will challenge for starter's minutes and I wouldn't be surprised to see him score more than 25 on multiple occasions. Even as a sixth man, I think Andre will finish as one of our top four scorers.

Sorry about being so loquacious but I'm enjoying this thread. I don't doubt Andre's offensive skills, but do you not have any concerns over his defensive abilities? I remember a YouTube at one point which was a series of "blow bys" by the man that he was guarding, and I would say based on my (unreliable) memory that he seemed to be something of a liability when it came to shut down face guarding an athletic, quick opponent--something this team has had struggled with. If the athleticism we are hoping for from Rodney, Jabari, and Amile is real, and allows for better defensive stops, I think Andre's minutes will drop based on defensive, not offensive, performance.

[A-Tex Devil]

None of us know what will happen next season, but do you really believe that a fifth-year senior Andre Dawkins, who had four of Duke's 13 highest individual scoring outputs in 2011-12 (more than any other Blue Devil, including Rivers, Curry and Kelly) and averaged more than 22 minutes per game, is going to play three or four minutes per night in ACC play? I strongly disagree. Andre will be our best shooter by a mile. He will challenge for starter's minutes and I wouldn't be surprised to see him score more than 25 on multiple occasions. Even as a sixth man, I think Andre will finish as one of our top four scorers.

I hope your right, but:

- Andre was always a defensive liability, which we know in K's world can keep you on the bench
- Andre hasn't played organized basketball in a year
- Rasheed Sulaimon does everything Andre does a little better, and perhaps Matt Jones, too.

I hope Andre can contribute mightily next year, but I also can realistically envision a Ricky Price career trajectory. Plus, we don't even know if he is coming back yet. As far as I'm concerned, anything he can give us is gravy.

[UrinalCake]

Sounds like a lot of people are pretty high on Dawkins should he choose to come back. I'll always be rooting for the guy, but my impression of him has always been that he's a one dimensional player. He stands around way too much on offense waiting for someone to pass him the ball, and on defense he doesn't show any intensity. Now maybe the year away has given him some perspective and he'll come back a different player. Maybe he spent every day watching tape of JJ working tirelessly to get open, or Nolan Smith committing himself to both ends of the floor. None of us really knows. But based on what I've seen so far, and knowing what Coach K values, I'm more in the camp of seeing him have role player minutes rather than starter's minutes.

Also everyone seems to want Coach K to play ten guys, and I think it's kind of ironic that down the road fans have been begging Roy to do the exact opposite. They spent the first half of the year complaining that he plays too many guys, as they've done in years past, and were thrilled when he finally shortened the bench and gave his best players the most minutes. I don't think there's a single best way to handle playing time, and I thnk our bench players will be way better than UNC's were this year, but neverthless I also think fans are naturally going to want what they don't have.

[bluedev_92]

First, some reminders, based on a lot of precedent:

[LIST]
We're talking about Coach K. Throughout the season he will be working towards a fairly tight rotation of maybe 7.5 players. Love it or hate it, this is what he does. Though it's fun to spend the offseason dreaming up ways of getting minutes for 10 guys, this almost never happens;
Three guys will be expected to play basically 37-40 minutes;
Coach K is very unlikely to embrace any position 'by committee' in the way 'by committee' is usually intended.


I'm not sure it's as cut and dry as that. Looking back over the past 10 years or so I found the following:
02-03 Nine players with 10+ minutes
03-04 Seven with 10+
04-05 Eight with 10+
05-06 Seven with 10+
06-07 Eight with 10+, 2 more with 7+
07-08 Nine with 10+, 2 more with 8+
08-09 Nine with 12+
09-10 Nine with 10+
10-11 Nine with 10+
11-12 Eight with 12+
12-13 Eight with 13+

Coach seems to use good players depending on how many of them he has that are ready. We will certainly have our share next year. There are a couple of quirks in the above stats, but they are on the whole a decent look at things. In addition our roster for 2013-2014 has more quality depth, in my opinion, than most if not all of the years listed above.

[whereinthehellami]

I'd like to see;

-Cook 6-1(wingspan of 6-1)
-Sulaimon 6-4 (wingspan of 6-8)
-Hood 6-8 (wingspan of 6-8.5)
-Parker 6-8 (wingspan of 6-11)
-Jefferson 6-8 (wingspan of 7-0)

For those worried about the height, I'm not. The wingspan is more of a factor for me then height is for basketball. Cook and Hood are the only guys who do not have impressive wingspans. The rest will pose matchups problems for the guys they are up against. On defense I see alot of tips, steals, and blocks due to the length of our players, as long as we don't play small ball. I like the options we have off the bench for the 5 spot. Hairston for his experience and his horizontal size and Plumlee for his vertical size and quickness (for a big guy).

The most significant thing for next year besides injuries is Jefferson putting on weight and getting stronger. If he can put on 15-20 pounds and keep it on while remaining agile and cagey, Duke will be incredible.

Cook, Sulaimon, Hood (from what i have seen of him), and Parker (from what i have read and seen of him) are all good passers. I really think the offense could be better next year after the guys develop a little chemistry. They can all shoot, penetrate, and pass. I don't think we will be as good from 3 next year but i don't think the dropp-off will be that significant. Duke shot 40% from 3 this past year which is great but duke was very dependent on the 3. if Duke hits for about 36-38% from 3 next year, which i think is doable, that will open up the lanes for dribble penetration and passing to cutters.

As far as to whether Parker starts or has an impact, I really like what i'm reading and seeing from this kid. His basketball IQ, size, and skills will translate well to the Duke team next year. I don't see him having much difficulty adjusting to the size and speed of the college game. He played in the Chicago public league, so he was playing against alot of college players. My only concern is whether he will be like Grant Hill and try to fit in as opposed to asserting his will. Duke needs him to want to be the man.

if the starting five above can stay injury free for Duke, i like Duke against any team in the country. I think with some game experience they will be something really special to watch.

P.S. I'm not buying the Kentucky cool-aid. i see some serious chemistry issues for them that cannot be sorted out in less than one year of playing together.

[UrinalCake]

I'm not sure it's as cut and dry as that. Looking back over the past 10 years or so I found the following:

Thanks for pulling those numbers together, they indicate that coach K uses his bench more than most fans seem to think. I'm also curious how injuries affect these numbers. Does Kyrie count as a 10+ minute guy in 2010-2011? What about Elton in 1997-1998? Because of injuries you could have a situation where the total average minutes for all of your players winds up being more than 200 per game.

In 2009-2010 we played our three guards virtually the whole game. Z and Lance played most of the game, but the two Plumlees would come in together for a few minute stretch a few times during the game. So it felt like we played our starters the whole game, but on paper we had 9 guys in double figure minutes once you add in Andre. Im not sure who you're counting as the ninth guy as Ryan averaged 6 minutes according to stats I just looked up

So maybe looking at the number of double digit scoters isn't a true reflection of how much we use our bench. Or maybe it is, I honestly don't know.

[A-Tex Devil]

Thanks for pulling those numbers together, they indicate that coach K uses his bench more than most fans seem to think. I'm also curious how injuries affect these numbers. Does Kyrie count as a 10+ minute guy in 2010-2011? What about Elton in 1997-1998? Because of injuries you could have a situation where the total average minutes for all of your players winds up being more than 200 per game.

In 2009-2010 we played our three guards virtually the whole game. Z and Lance played most of the game, but the two Plumlees would come in together for a few minute stretch a few times during the game. So it felt like we played our starters the whole game, but on paper we had 9 guys in double figure minutes once you add in Andre. Im not sure who you're counting as the ninth guy as Ryan averaged 6 minutes according to stats I just looked up

So maybe looking at the number of double digit scoters isn't a true reflection of how much we use our bench. Or maybe it is, I honestly don't know.

Yeah --- but I'd like to see what those numbers look like in ACC and tourney play. For instance, in 2009, Miles played a ton prior to the ACC, then not so much in conference play. I think players get enough run early in the season, especially against scrubs, to boost their overall minutes. But I imagine that in ACC play, you are still seeing the 7-9 man rotation.

[COYS]

I'd like to see;

-Cook 6-1(wingspan of 6-1)
-Sulaimon 6-4 (wingspan of 6-8)
-Hood 6-8 (wingspan of 6-8.5)
-Parker 6-8 (wingspan of 6-11)
-Jefferson 6-8 (wingspan of 7-0)

For those worried about the height, I'm not. The wingspan is more of a factor for me then height is for basketball. Cook and Hood are the only guys who do not have impressive wingspans. The rest will pose matchups problems for the guys they are up against. On defense I see alot of tips, steals, and blocks due to the length of our players, as long as we don't play small ball. I like the options we have off the bench for the 5 spot. Hairston for his experience and his horizontal size and Plumlee for his vertical size and quickness (for a big guy).

The most significant thing for next year besides injuries is Jefferson putting on weight and getting stronger. If he can put on 15-20 pounds and keep it on while remaining agile and cagey, Duke will be incredible.




While there are obviously a lot of other questions to answer before we can definitively say that Duke will be elite next year, I agree with this point about wingspan. Duke's 2007-2008 team was shorter than next year's team. Brian Zoubek was injured over the summer, started the year and was injured again, and then came back at the tail end of the season (i want to say he suited up when the ACC tourney began). That team started Greg, Gerald, DeMarcus, Lance, and Kyle and brought Jon off the bench in favor of Lance for long stretches. That team still managed to earn the 8th highest defensive ranking in Pomeroy despite playing large parts of the game with Gerald and DeMarcus guarding the opposing team's power forward. In addition, that team lacked exceptional quickness at the guard spots (Greg lacked elite foot speed, DeMarcus was phenomenal on defense but lacked the handle to drive consistently on offense, Gerald possessed lots of strength and insane leaping ability but was not the fastest player, laterally, and Jon never passed the eye-test based on physical abilities for most observers). The team played excellent defense by relentlessly pressuring the perimeter (that team went deeper than most Duke teams with Jon playing starters minutes off the bench, Nolan getting lots of burn, Taylor King playing sporadically with the occasional heavy minutes game, and Brian getting burn when he was healthy) and denying the pass in to the big guys. While we all remember how that team was undone by WVU, we should also keep in mind that WVU beat Duke at its own game by going small and being just a bit faster.

I think the defense for 2013-2014 has the potential to be just as good if not better than the 2007-2008 team. Next year's team will have more quickness, position by position, than the 2008 team. Quinn is faster than Greg. Rasheed is probably faster laterally than either Gerald or Jon. Rodney is more of an unknown and I doubt he's the defensive player that a senior DeMarcus was, but that's probably not that big a deal because Amile is probably at least Lance's equal with lateral movement and Jabari is most likely equal to or faster than Kyle. As mentioned above, the 2013 team also has excellent wingspan in Rasheed, Jabari, and Amile, something that only DeMarcus could match with the 2007-2008 squad.

As much as we have lamented our inability to keep up with Louisville's quick guards, I actually think that a bigger problem with the team this year was the inconsistent hedging of Mason. I don't want to sound like I'm dumping on Mason. He did many things very well, and one thing exceptionally well (rebound!), but he was usually poor at hedging. The 2010 team was slower overall, but the superb hedging ability of Lance and Brian made the defense elite by the end of the year. Inconsistent hedging from Mason made any quickness difference between our guards and other team's guards far more noticeable as it was relatively easy for them to turn the corner after a screen. Next year's team will be able to switch on the vast majority of screens if they want. If Jabari and Amile can upgrade their hedging abilities over what Mason gave us (which is no guarantee, I know!), I think it will pay big dividends to our defense, especially given the versatility we'll have at almost every position. We had four guys last year who were really best equipped in terms of size to guard only one position (Mason and Ryan were best guarding in the post although Ryan was a solid hedger and Quinn and Seth were small enough that the point guard spot was their best matchup). Next year, with a lineup of Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari, and Amile, we have five guys who probably won't be entirely out of place guarding on the perimeter and three guys who have enough size to handle a post player on the occasional switch. Quick guards are difficult for any team to handle (how many teams, no matter how quick their personnel, enjoyed playing against Jay Williams?). However, our personnel next year will match up entirely differently against a team constructed similarly to Louisville. I think that the defense will improve, over all. At the very least, I think the team is capable of the defensive performance that this year's squad was putting out there prior to Ryan's injury.

[Kedsy]

Your point seems right, top 5 guys are VERY likely to start, even in excellent programs. There may be a Duke exception, however, 1997 seems to have been the year before RSCI listing are available to me, but Chris Burgess was ranked #1 by USAToday when he signed, #2 by Gibbons or so said the Chronicle. I have read that his ranking did fall late and Brand's rose. Burgess, of course, didn't start very much.

All three of Brand, Battier, and Burgess had been ranked #1 by some services at some point in their high school careers. By the summer before they arrived at Duke (which is when the final RSCI comes out), Brand was top 5 (probably on average #3), Battier was top 10 (around #7 or #8) and Burgess had free fallen into the 20s. So, I don't think there were any exceptions in that class, although it would be easier to tell for sure if historical recruiting rankings were generally available.

[Billy Dat]

Coach seems to use good players depending on how many of them he has that are ready. We will certainly have our share next year. There are a couple of quirks in the above stats, but they are on the whole a decent look at things. In addition our roster for 2013-2014 has more quality depth, in my opinion, than most if not all of the years listed above.

To further this thought, K was actively asked about his use of the bench this year when Kelly went out. His quotes at the time focused on playing time being determined by "separation". He defined separation as the difference in performance between two players. There was enormous separation, he said, between Ryan Kelly and any other player that could sub for him. However, when Ryan went down with his injury, there was a lot less separation between the next guys on the depth chart - Hairston, Amile and Alex. Initially, that meant they'd all get a chance at more minutes. But, I think Amile proved himself to K much quicker than Alex and he seemed to get more minutes as a result.

This theory would suggest that, heading into next season, Hairston and Amile likely have the most Duke game experience separation, Parker likely has the most talent separation, Hood has some combination of a talent and experience separation, etc. But, history suggests that some subset of those wings will demonstrate head-to-head separation early in the practice process and they will get the lion's share of the minutes. Because, the most telling quote from K came during the same volley of questions - "It's much more important for us to develop our starters then to develop our bench/depth".

Do those historical minutes-per-games stats include 0s averaged in for DNPs? I ask because it would be interesting to look at the stats for ACC/NCAA games only, when I suspect the minute allotments get stingier.

[CDu]

To further this thought, K was actively asked about his use of the bench this year when Kelly went out. His quotes at the time focused on playing time being determined by "separation". He defined separation as the difference in performance between two players. There was enormous separation, he said, between Ryan Kelly and any other player that could sub for him. However, when Ryan went down with his injury, there was a lot less separation between the next guys on the depth chart - Hairston, Amile and Alex. Initially, that meant they'd all get a chance at more minutes. But, I think Amile proved himself to K much quicker than Alex and he seemed to get more minutes as a result.

This theory would suggest that, heading into next season, Hairston and Amile likely have the most Duke game experience separation, Parker likely has the most talent separation, Hood has some combination of a talent and experience separation, etc. But, history suggests that some subset of those wings will demonstrate head-to-head separation early in the practice process and they will get the lion's share of the minutes. Because, the most telling quote from K came during the same volley of questions - "It's much more important for us to develop our starters then to develop our bench/depth".

Yes, when there hasn't been clear separation, Coach K has tended to go deeper into the bench to try to find something that works. The 1997-1998 season is an example (specifically at the PF spot). In that season, Chappell got the majority of the starts at SF (21). But three other players got starts at SF that year: Carrawell started 10, Battier started 4, and Price started 1. Despite leading the team in starts, Chappell played VERY sparingly as the season wore on, winding up with an average of only 14.4 mpg. By midseason, Carrawell (who even tallied some DNPs earlier in the year) and Battier had more clearly established themselves in Coach K's eyes, and they got the PT down the stretch.


Do those historical minutes-per-games stats include 0s averaged in for DNPs? I ask because it would be interesting to look at the stats for ACC/NCAA games only, when I suspect the minute allotments get stingier.

Minutes per game don't typically include DNPs. They are usually only done for minutes per game played. Now, there will be some examples where it works out (Chappell, for example, did still play in every game in 1997-1998; but his PT toward the end of the season was limited to a few mpg).

It is certainly true that Coach K trims his rotation against tougher teams down the stretch. Even with the deepest and arguably most balanced team Coach K has ever had (the 1997-1998 team), he had trimmed his rotation down to 7 (with Chappell and Burgess combining for ~10 minutes of total play as the 8th and 9th men).

I'd be shocked if we are running deeper than 8 by late February next year.

[bluedev_92]

Thanks for pulling those numbers together, they indicate that coach K uses his bench more than most fans seem to think. I'm also curious how injuries affect these numbers. Does Kyrie count as a 10+ minute guy in 2010-2011? What about Elton in 1997-1998? Because of injuries you could have a situation where the total average minutes for all of your players winds up being more than 200 per game.

In 2009-2010 we played our three guards virtually the whole game. Z and Lance played most of the game, but the two Plumlees would come in together for a few minute stretch a few times during the game. So it felt like we played our starters the whole game, but on paper we had 9 guys in double figure minutes once you add in Andre. Im not sure who you're counting as the ninth guy as Ryan averaged 6 minutes according to stats I just looked up

So maybe looking at the number of double digit scoters isn't a true reflection of how much we use our bench. Or maybe it is, I honestly don't know.

Good points - there are definitely some quirks given the quick look at the data (injuries & # game played). You point out a good one in 2009-2010 - Oleg was in there for 10mpg, but only played in 6 games. Even given a couple of those, still think K uses the quality depth that he has when it's available. For example, the 97-98 team used 10 players for 10+ & had Ricky Price for about 8 minutes per game for 21 games. The 98-99 team went 9 players for 10+. The next three on the bench that year were J.D. Simpson & the Caldbeck's - fine players/gentlemen but hard to make the argument that K should have taken time away from any of the other 9. Taking a look @ Louisville's numbers this year - 9 players for 10+ minutes. Looks very similar to the Duke 2011-2012 minutes per player breakdown & certainly nobody would say that Patino has a short rotation. We will have some serious depth next year. I would think 9 or 10 out of 12 (if Dawkins is here) will get decent minutes. It will be fun to watch!

[CDu]

Good points - there are definitely some quirks given the quick look at the data (injuries & # game played). You point out a good one in 2009-2010 - Oleg was in there for 10mpg, but only played in 6 games. Even given a couple of those, still think K uses the quality depth that he has when it's available. For example, the 97-98 team used 10 players for 10+ & had Ricky Price for about 8 minutes per game for 21 games. The 98-99 team went 9 players for 10+. The next three on the bench that year were J.D. Simpson & the Caldbeck's - fine players/gentlemen but hard to make the argument that K should have taken time away from any of the other 9. Taking a look @ Louisville's numbers this year - 9 players for 10+ minutes. Looks very similar to the Duke 2011-2012 minutes per player breakdown & certainly nobody would say that Patino has a short rotation. We will have some serious depth next year. I would think 9 or 10 out of 12 (if Dawkins is here) will get decent minutes. It will be fun to watch!

But you have to remember that 1997-1998 was a very weird season. For one thing, Brand missed almost half the season with the foot injury. That naturally skewed the minutes upward for guys like Domzalski and Burgess. For another, Price missed the first semester due to suspension. So even though we had 11 guys who saw meaningful minutes over the course of the season, when all 11 guys were available Coach K trimmed the rotation to 7-8.

By the end of the season in 1997-1998, Coach K had basically gone back to a 7-man rotation. From the time that Brand came back through the end of the season, only 7 players (and in this case it was the same 7: Brand, McLeod, Battier, Langdon, Wojo, Avery, Carrawell) played more than 8 minutes per game unless the game was a blowout.

Once the season reaches ACC play, I don't see any reason to believe that we'll go deeper than 7-8 players getting meaningful minutes.

[Kedsy]

I'm not sure it's as cut and dry as that. Looking back over the past 10 years or so I found the following:
02-03 Nine players with 10+ minutes
03-04 Seven with 10+
04-05 Eight with 10+
05-06 Seven with 10+
06-07 Eight with 10+, 2 more with 7+
07-08 Nine with 10+, 2 more with 8+
08-09 Nine with 12+
09-10 Nine with 10+
10-11 Nine with 10+
11-12 Eight with 12+
12-13 Eight with 13+

Coach seems to use good players depending on how many of them he has that are ready. We will certainly have our share next year. There are a couple of quirks in the above stats, but they are on the whole a decent look at things. In addition our roster for 2013-2014 has more quality depth, in my opinion, than most if not all of the years listed above.


Once the season reaches ACC play, I don't see any reason to believe that we'll go deeper than 7-8 players getting meaningful minutes.

CDu has hit the key point, I think. The following table shows how many players played 10 or more minutes in close games (defined as a final margin of 20 or fewer) after January 1 during Coach K's tenure at Duke. To understand how to read the table, in 2013, we had six such games in which six guys played 10+ minutes, ten such games in which seven guys played 10+ minutes and two such games in which eight guys played 10+ minutes. If you look at 1998, you can see that despite having 10 guys who averaged 10+ minutes on the season, in close games after January 1 we basically had a seven man rotation, going eight deep in a few games.

If you accept this definition of rotation length (how many play 10+ minutes in close games after January 1), then we've basically been 7 deep every year of Coach K's tenure. In the past 20 years, the only seasons you could even argue we've gone 8 deep were 1997, 2008, and 2012 and we've never gone deeper than that.

Having said all that, I expect next season even in close games after January 1 we'll go 8 deep in most games, because Tyler and Andre should both get 10+ minutes and we'll need two guys to play center, but unless Coach K does something he's never done before, we won't see more than eight guys in the late season rotation.



Year 5 6 7 8 9 10 Avg
---- - - - - - -- ----
2013 6 10 2 6.78
2012 1 10 9 2 7.55
2011 6 9 5 6.95
2010 2 5 8 6 6.86
2009 1 4 10 4 1 7.00
2008 3 5 8 3 7.58
2007 1 3 11 2 6.82
2006 4 17 0 6.81
2005 6 14 0 6.70
2004 3 14 1 6.89
2003 3 17 2 1 7.04
2002 8 3 0 6.27
2001 8 8 0 6.50
2000 11 5 0 6.31
1999 2 7 2 7.00
1998 0 9 4 7.31
1997 1 9 7 1 7.44
1996 4 13 1 6.83
1994 8 14 0 6.64
1993 7 8 4 6.84
1992 10 9 5 6.79
1991 0 13 0 4 7.47
1990 1 11 9 7.38
1989 1 9 7 7.35
1988 3 12 6 2 7.30
1987 3 11 6 1 7.24
1986 2 16 4 1 7.22
1985 10 7 2 6.58
1984 8 12 1 6.67
1983 2 6 5 1 7.36
1982 7 5 4 1 6.94
1981 7 6 3 1 6.88

[Skitzle]

CDu has hit the key point, I think. The following table shows how many players played 10 or more minutes in close games (defined as a final margin of 20 or fewer) after January 1 during Coach K's tenure at Duke. To understand how to read the table, in 2013, we had six such games in which six guys played 10+ minutes, ten such games in which seven guys played 10+ minutes and two such games in which eight guys played 10+ minutes. If you look at 1998, you can see that despite having 10 guys who averaged 10+ minutes on the season, in close games after January 1 we basically had a seven man rotation, going eight deep in a few games.

If you accept this definition of rotation length (how many play 10+ minutes in close games after January 1), then we've basically been 7 deep every year of Coach K's tenure. In the past 20 years, the only seasons you could even argue we've gone 8 deep were 1997, 2008, and 2012 and we've never gone deeper than that.

Having said all that, I expect next season even in close games after January 1 we'll go 8 deep in most games, because Tyler and Andre should both get 10+ minutes and we'll need two guys to play center, but unless Coach K does something he's never done before, we won't see more than eight guys in the late season rotation.



GREAT post. I think this is what we've all been try to get to.

The long (and the short of it is) that next year will have an 8 man rotation, because of the (expected) 2-headed Jefferson/Hairston center.

So Here is a list of guys that most people assume to be in the rotation

1. Cook
2. Sheed
3. Thornton
4. Hood
5. Parker
6. Hairston
7. Jefferson

Leaves 1 more spot for minutes between 5 guys (in order of likelihood).

1. Andre
2. Murphy
3. Marshall
4. Semi
5. Jones

If Murphy does prove to be a better fit than Andre, then as per Jim Sumner, I think we can expect Andre NOT to be on the 2013-2014 team (he's good enough to start on most teams in his last year of eligibility....)

So the players unlikely to see the court next year are.

Murphy, Marshall, Semi, and Jones.

I'm calling it now. Murphy = Pocius 2014

[luvdahops]

GREAT post. I think this is what we've all been try to get to.

The long (and the short of it is) that next year will have an 8 man rotation, because of the (expected) 2-headed Jefferson/Hairston center.

So Here is a list of guys that most people assume to be in the rotation

1. Cook
2. Sheed
3. Thornton
4. Hood
5. Parker
6. Hairston
7. Jefferson

Leaves 1 more spot for minutes between 5 guys (in order of likelihood).

1. Andre
2. Murphy
3. Marshall
4. Semi
5. Jones

If Murphy does prove to be a better fit than Andre, then as per Jim Sumner, I think we can expect Andre NOT to be on the 2013-2014 team (he's good enough to start on most teams in his last year of eligibility....)

So the players unlikely to see the court next year are.

Murphy, Marshall, Semi, and Jones.

I'm calling it now. Murphy = Pocius 2014

Many fair points. My main tweak would be that I view #6 and 7 more as some combination of Amile, Josh and Marshall, probably in that order of likelihood (i.e. would expect 2 of those 3 to be in the rotation). That is with the expectation that Amile can bulk to a playing weight of ~220-225 next year without sacrificing quickness and agility. While Josh was ahead of Amile in the rotation at the end of the year, Amile is more mobile and a better rebounder and shotblocker. Marshall is the real wild card. I think it is a big stretch to think he will start next year, but he may well develop into a quality backup.

[Skitzle]

Many fair points. My main tweak would be that I view #6 and 7 more as some combination of Amile, Josh and Marshall, probably in that order of likelihood (i.e. would expect 2 of those 3 to be in the rotation). That is with the expectation that Amile can bulk to a playing weight of ~220-225 next year without sacrificing quickness and agility. While Josh was ahead of Amile in the rotation at the end of the year, Amile is more mobile and a better rebounder and shotblocker. Marshall is the real wild card. I think it is a big stretch to think he will start next year, but he may well develop into a quality backup.

I think if Marshall makes a HUGE leap, he will play 5-10 min a game (AT MOST) based on matchups.

If he makes an INSANE LEAP, he'll take time away either from Hairston or from Jefferson OR from Murphy/Dawkins and we will play big more often.

So at the end of the day, we will STILL use only an 8 man rotation.

[jmck214]

I was checking nba mock drafts and I saw that Jeff Goodman had Sheed going in the top 20. I certainly expect to have Sheed back but nothing would surprise me. I looked at a few 2014 drafts and saw parker, hood, and Sheed all go in the lottery. We know that this could be a real possibility but thinking about it I almost hope this happens since the last two times we had three players in the lottery we made the Natl Championship game that season

[Skitzle]

I was checking nba mock drafts and I saw that Jeff Goodman had Sheed going in the top 20. I certainly expect to have Sheed back but nothing would surprise me. I looked at a few 2014 drafts and saw parker, hood, and Sheed all go in the lottery. We know that this could be a real possibility but thinking about it I almost hope this happens since the last two times we had three players in the lottery we made the Natl Championship game that season


I was checking nba mock drafts and I saw that Jeff Goodman had Sheed going in the top 20. I certainly expect to have Sheed back but nothing would surprise me. I looked at a few 2014 drafts and saw parker, hood, and Sheed all go in the lottery. We know that this could be a real possibility but thinking about it I almost hope this happens since the last two times we had three players in the lottery we made the Natl Championship game that season

Sheeds a fantastic player and had a fantastic freshman year

Comparing him to other "Freshman Non-Point Guards"




Player|GP|GS|Min|Pts|FG%|3P%|FT%|Asts|STLs|RBs|
Rasheed|36|33|29.2|11.6|.424|.372|.802|1.9|.8|3.4|
Rivers|33|33|33.2|15.5|.433|.365|.658|2.1|1.0|3.4|
N. Smith|34|1|14.4|5.9|.467|.386|.769|1.3|.5|1.5|
Scheyer|33|32|33.7|15.5|.398|.365|.846|1.8|1.2|3.3 |
Henderson|32|10|19.3|15.5|.451|.320|.627|1.1|.5|2. 9|




You also have to consider that Rasheed beat out Thornton and Murphy to lock down the starting job.

I think we will be VERY lucky to have Rasheed around for 4 years....

He's most similar to Smith, but you can tell he's got another level to his game


PS: IF anyone can teach me how to make a table on this board. I will be very greatful. PM me?

[Skitzle]

Thanks to tbyers11 on the table front, here is something a little more readable!



Player Name GP GS Min Pts FG% 3P% FT% Asts STLs RBs
Rasheed 36 33 29.2 11.6 0.424 0.372 0.802 1.9 0.8 3.4
A. Rivers 33 33 33.2 15.5 0.433 0.365 0.658 2.1 1 3.4
N. Smith 34 1 14.4 5.9 0.467 0.386 0.769 1.3 0.5 1.5
J. Scheyer 33 32 33.7 15.5 0.398 0.365 0.846 1.8 1.2 3.3
G. Henderson 32 10 19.3 15.5 0.451 0.32 0.627 1.1 0.5 2.9

[tommy]

Thanks to tbyers11 on the table front, here is something a little more readable!



Player Name GP GS Min Pts FG% 3P% FT% Asts STLs RBs
Rasheed 36 33 29.2 11.6 0.424 0.372 0.802 1.9 0.8 3.4
A. Rivers 33 33 33.2 15.5 0.433 0.365 0.658 2.1 1 3.4
N. Smith 34 1 14.4 5.9 0.467 0.386 0.769 1.3 0.5 1.5
J. Scheyer 33 32 33.7 15.5 0.398 0.365 0.846 1.8 1.2 3.3
G. Henderson 32 10 19.3 15.5 0.451 0.32 0.627 1.1 0.5 2.9


As freshmen, Jon Scheyer averaged 12.2 ppg, not 15. And G averaged only 6.8 ppg, not 15.

[Skitzle]

As freshmen, Jon Scheyer averaged 12.2 ppg, not 15. And G averaged only 6.8 ppg, not 15.

True... result of Data overload.

[licc85]

I'd like to see;

-Cook 6-1(wingspan of 6-1)
-Sulaimon 6-4 (wingspan of 6-8)
-Hood 6-8 (wingspan of 6-8.5)
-Parker 6-8 (wingspan of 6-11)
-Jefferson 6-8 (wingspan of 7-0)

For those worried about the height, I'm not. The wingspan is more of a factor for me then height is for basketball. Cook and Hood are the only guys who do not have impressive wingspans. The rest will pose matchups problems for the guys they are up against. On defense I see alot of tips, steals, and blocks due to the length of our players, as long as we don't play small ball. I like the options we have off the bench for the 5 spot. Hairston for his experience and his horizontal size and Plumlee for his vertical size and quickness (for a big guy).

The most significant thing for next year besides injuries is Jefferson putting on weight and getting stronger. If he can put on 15-20 pounds and keep it on while remaining agile and cagey, Duke will be incredible.

Cook, Sulaimon, Hood (from what i have seen of him), and Parker (from what i have read and seen of him) are all good passers. I really think the offense could be better next year after the guys develop a little chemistry. They can all shoot, penetrate, and pass. I don't think we will be as good from 3 next year but i don't think the dropp-off will be that significant. Duke shot 40% from 3 this past year which is great but duke was very dependent on the 3. if Duke hits for about 36-38% from 3 next year, which i think is doable, that will open up the lanes for dribble penetration and passing to cutters.

As far as to whether Parker starts or has an impact, I really like what i'm reading and seeing from this kid. His basketball IQ, size, and skills will translate well to the Duke team next year. I don't see him having much difficulty adjusting to the size and speed of the college game. He played in the Chicago public league, so he was playing against alot of college players. My only concern is whether he will be like Grant Hill and try to fit in as opposed to asserting his will. Duke needs him to want to be the man.

if the starting five above can stay injury free for Duke, i like Duke against any team in the country. I think with some game experience they will be something really special to watch.

P.S. I'm not buying the Kentucky cool-aid. i see some serious chemistry issues for them that cannot be sorted out in less than one year of playing together.

I disagree with a few of your points here. First of all, I think it's a little crazy to assume that the offense could be better than this year "after the guys develop a little chemistry." Our offense this past year, especailly with Kelly out there was one of Duke's historically great offenses. I believe they were top 5 in efficiency pretty much the whole year, and we had 3 seniors and 2 juniors who have had 3-4 years to develop chemistry. The talk of "chemistry" in modern day college basketball is kind of ridiculous. Basketball teams do not develop into a cohesive unit over the course of 5 months. It takes multiple years to develop the type of chemistry that it takes to become the type of team that Louisville has this year, or the 2007 Florida Gators, or the 2009 Carolina Tar Heels. Best example out there is the San Antonio Spurs. How many years have those guys been playing together? Like 20? I lost count.

So, overall, I have a hard time believing we are going to outclass this year's offense. We lose our best low post scorer and our 2 best perimeter shooters, and our 3 most experienced players. However, we do have a chance to be a better defensive team. I think Amile and Rasheed gaining a summer of practice are going to improve dramatically on defense, and let's face it, as good as Seth was, he was kind of a liability on the defensive end. If we are going to have something to hang our hat on next year, it's going to be defense. I only hope that Marshall can improve enough to become something resembling a poor man's Gorgui Dieng, and then we're in serious business. If our defense improves the way I'm hoping it will, we SHOULD be getting way more points off of our defense that last year, which will help tremendously, but our halfcourt game is almost sure to take a bit of a dip. Jabari is good, but his perimeter shot isn't great yet, and he's still a freshman. My expectations are somewhat tempered. He should still be the best player on the team, but right now, I think he's a less athletic Grant Hill who is not quite as good a ball handler or passer but has a better jumper.

Also, are you crazy?? Kentucky is a top 5 team for sure. If they get Andrew Wiggins they are possibly number 1, and it's going to be veeeery difficult to not see them as a lock for the final 4. Having chemistry is one thing, but having 2 or more guys who are a legit threat to be multiple time NBA All-Stars on a college squad is a whole different ball game. I see Andrew Harrison and Randle as future all stars. That's no joke. This is the most talented senior class of high schoolers in a long long time. Most NBA scouts see this class producing 5 stars at the next level: Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Andrew Harrison, and Randle. UK already has 2 of those guys, with Wiggins still up in the air. With the dearth of talent pretty much everywhere else in college basketball, any talk of this team not being able to dominate is just crazy, especially if they get a few guys to come back. I think Dakari Johnson is a legit big man too. He's going to be hard for many teams to contain.

We should be a top 5 team as well, but our talent is nowhere near the level of UK's. I just hope somebody takes them out before we meet them.

[Kedsy]

Our offense this past year, especailly with Kelly out there was one of Duke's historically great offenses. I believe they were top 5 in efficiency pretty much the whole year...

I don't know about "historically great." According to Pomeroy, our offense in 2011-12 was top 5 in efficiency before Ryan got hurt (it was actually #1 after the FSU game in late February). Our offense in 2010-11 was top 5 in efficiency for the whole season, despite Kyrie's injury, and again was top 5 all season in 2009-10. (Also 2006 and 2004, and Pomeroy only goes back to 2003 or the list would probably be a whole lot longer.) When something happens so often, it's kind of hard to describe the achievement as "historically great."

I suspect we'll be top 5 in offensive efficiency again next year. We'll miss our seniors' savvy and experience but I doubt we'll skip a beat on offense.


However, we do have a chance to be a better defensive team.

I agree we have a chance, but it clearly isn't a 100% chance. Hopefully it happens, and if it does, combined with what I believe will be an equally potent offense it's going to make Duke a special team next year.


If they get Andrew Wiggins they are possibly number 1, and it's going to be veeeery difficult to not see them as a lock for the final 4.

I think the phrase "lock for the Final Four" should be banned from the English language. If the past 30 years have taught us anything, it's that in a one-and-done tournament nobody's a "lock" for anything.

[UrinalCake]

licc85, what you said regarding our offense makes total sense and is backed up by hard numbers. But I still think our offense has the potential to be better next year than this year. Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, since as you said our offense was awesome this year. I feel like we'll be much more balanced next year, with multiple guys who can create and exploit mismatches. I think we'll be less susceptible to poor matchups, where after the game we just throw up our hands and say "well we lost but there's not much we can do because we just can't get open against physical guards," or "once player x got into foul trouble we had no chance." Our versatility next year will allow us to play a lot of different styles, and our depth will help counter against foul trouble. This year we had a noticeable dropoff in scoring any time we went to the bench. Finally, I think our offensive rebounding will be improved due to better size and length on the perimeter, and I think we'll create more turnovers that lead to easy buckets.

I'm definitely psyched for next year!

[Monmouth77]

I disagree with a few of your points here. First of all, I think it's a little crazy to assume that the offense could be better than this year "after the guys develop a little chemistry." Our offense this past year, especailly with Kelly out there was one of Duke's historically great offenses. I believe they were top 5 in efficiency pretty much the whole year, and we had 3 seniors and 2 juniors who have had 3-4 years to develop chemistry. The talk of "chemistry" in modern day college basketball is kind of ridiculous. Basketball teams do not develop into a cohesive unit over the course of 5 months. It takes multiple years to develop the type of chemistry that it takes to become the type of team that Louisville has this year, or the 2007 Florida Gators, or the 2009 Carolina Tar Heels. Best example out there is the San Antonio Spurs. How many years have those guys been playing together? Like 20? I lost count.

So, overall, I have a hard time believing we are going to outclass this year's offense. We lose our best low post scorer and our 2 best perimeter shooters, and our 3 most experienced players. However, we do have a chance to be a better defensive team. I think Amile and Rasheed gaining a summer of practice are going to improve dramatically on defense, and let's face it, as good as Seth was, he was kind of a liability on the defensive end. If we are going to have something to hang our hat on next year, it's going to be defense. I only hope that Marshall can improve enough to become something resembling a poor man's Gorgui Dieng, and then we're in serious business. If our defense improves the way I'm hoping it will, we SHOULD be getting way more points off of our defense that last year, which will help tremendously, but our halfcourt game is almost sure to take a bit of a dip. Jabari is good, but his perimeter shot isn't great yet, and he's still a freshman. My expectations are somewhat tempered. He should still be the best player on the team, but right now, I think he's a less athletic Grant Hill who is not quite as good a ball handler or passer but has a better jumper.

Also, are you crazy?? Kentucky is a top 5 team for sure. If they get Andrew Wiggins they are possibly number 1, and it's going to be veeeery difficult to not see them as a lock for the final 4. Having chemistry is one thing, but having 2 or more guys who are a legit threat to be multiple time NBA All-Stars on a college squad is a whole different ball game. I see Andrew Harrison and Randle as future all stars. That's no joke. This is the most talented senior class of high schoolers in a long long time. Most NBA scouts see this class producing 5 stars at the next level: Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Andrew Harrison, and Randle. UK already has 2 of those guys, with Wiggins still up in the air. With the dearth of talent pretty much everywhere else in college basketball, any talk of this team not being able to dominate is just crazy, especially if they get a few guys to come back. I think Dakari Johnson is a legit big man too. He's going to be hard for many teams to contain.

We should be a top 5 team as well, but our talent is nowhere near the level of UK's. I just hope somebody takes them out before we meet them.

I am not sure I agree with either of these points. Taking the second statement first, and just using the kenpom efficiency statistics you cite, Duke offense was better in 2004, 2010 and 2011 than it was this year. And I am guessing that if we had the data to look back, the 2002, 2001, 1999 and 1992 offenses would have been more efficient as well. Those offenses certainly looked better to my eye than this year's version.

So I think it's not quite right to call this year's offense "historically great" for Duke. Our offensive efficiency this year was rooted significantly in our amazing (and truly historically great for Duke or any team) 3PT % which finished the year right at 40%. Mason gave us balance, and we had guards who could at times score at the rim and get to the free throw line, but most of the pop was the great 3PT shooting %.

As to the first point, what I think has people justifiably excited about for next year on offense is the chance for us to get a lot more easy baskets. Improvement on defense-- especially if we play an extended aggressive perimeter defense that leads to steals and runouts -- will give us some easy buckets. And that will be on top of buckets many would hope to see inside the paint and from the line-- not from traditional post play, but from higher percentage shots off the dribble by Parker and Hood, as well as improved versions of Quinn and Rasheed. And hopefully we will still shoot a good percentage from 3. Somewhere between 36-38% would still be lethal, given other strengths on the team.

On the specific topic of chemistry, while I certainly agree that teams that play together multiple years have a better chance of showing real chemistry and beautiful ball movement, I wouldn't rule it out seeing some beautiful passing and team play from Duke next year.

I always go back to 1999 as the standard for what I hope to see from Duke (no reason other than it was my senior year and I loved the style of play). That team was dominated by sophomores, started only one senior (Langdon), and had a sophmore PG who did not start the previous year. That team had some pretty good chemistry. Now-- it had better overall talent than what we'll have next year-- but it played the way I hope we'll play: defense first, with an aim to score easy, opportunistic baskets. And while I don't see us blitzing the ACC for an 18-0 record, or crushing our opponents like 1999, I think it will be fun to watch, and that we have a chance to be better on both sides of the ball next year.

[Listen to Quants]

Yup. In fact, we've had only 5 players (Redick in '05 and '06, McRoberts in '07, Scheyer/Singler/Smith in '10) average even 35 mpg since Duhon graduated.

Now, I don't think we're going to suddenly go to a 10-man rotation, but I'd be shocked if we had even one player average 35 mpg next year.

All true. However, a lot of people mean 'during important games' when they are talking minutes. It is an interesting exercise to go through the individual games in 2009-10 and see some 40 min contributions from the 3 Ss vs NC or vs. Butler and 30 min or below vs. Gardner-Webb.

[mo.st.dukie]

I disagree with a few of your points here. First of all, I think it's a little crazy to assume that the offense could be better than this year "after the guys develop a little chemistry." Our offense this past year, especailly with Kelly out there was one of Duke's historically great offenses. I believe they were top 5 in efficiency pretty much the whole year, and we had 3 seniors and 2 juniors who have had 3-4 years to develop chemistry. The talk of "chemistry" in modern day college basketball is kind of ridiculous. Basketball teams do not develop into a cohesive unit over the course of 5 months. It takes multiple years to develop the type of chemistry that it takes to become the type of team that Louisville has this year, or the 2007 Florida Gators, or the 2009 Carolina Tar Heels. Best example out there is the San Antonio Spurs. How many years have those guys been playing together? Like 20? I lost count.

So, overall, I have a hard time believing we are going to outclass this year's offense. We lose our best low post scorer and our 2 best perimeter shooters, and our 3 most experienced players.






I disagree. For one, yes this years team had 3 seniors but the guys running things were a freshman and an inexperienced sophomore. That was one of my big concerns heading into the tournament was would our inexperienced backcourt be a problem and ultimately, in the end, it cost us big time. Now both Rasheed and Quinn have had a full year of starting under their belts, the guard play is so crucial to offensive execution and chemistry and I think Duke will have one of the best guard tandems in the country next year. Yes, there are examples of teams that took years to develop chemistry and there are also examples of teams that did it pretty quickly. Michigan starts three freshmen and a sophomore, they're playing this weekend and the three seniors from Duke are not, and that Michigan team has one of the best offenses in the country and the reason why is because they have one of the best guard tandems in the country with a sophomore and a junior (just like Duke will have next year).

Second, I loved Curry and Kelly, absolutely fantastic college players and will probably have decent pro careers, but Hood and Parker are better. Simple as that. It's like going from Jon Scheyer to Kyrie Irving. Kyrie was an upgrade, that's nothing against Jon as he was one of the better PG's in Duke history, but Kyrie was simply more talented and had better physical tools. I don't understand why people are so down on Jabari yet those same people talk about UK's freshmen as if those guys are guaranteed superstars. Sure UK has proven to be able to get those kinds of freshmen to play at a high level right away but so has Duke and very recently as well with Irving, Rivers, and Sulaimon. Parker brings everything Kelly could except the experience and leadership but he's also more physical and more athletic than Ryan. Hood probably won't be the shooter Seth was but as a quick, athletic 6'8 guard it probably won't matter much. And keep in mind this kid has a full year playing high-major D1 ball against teams like Kentucky and Florida plus has a full year of Duke practices and playing with these guys in practice. The only downgrade is at center, everything else is an upgrade, the only question marks are experience, leadership, bball IQ, all those intangibles.

[tommy]

licc85, what you said regarding our offense makes total sense and is backed up by hard numbers. But I still think our offense has the potential to be better next year than this year. Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, since as you said our offense was awesome this year. I feel like we'll be much more balanced next year, with multiple guys who can create and exploit mismatches. I think we'll be less susceptible to poor matchups, where after the game we just throw up our hands and say "well we lost but there's not much we can do because we just can't get open against physical guards," or "once player x got into foul trouble we had no chance." Our versatility next year will allow us to play a lot of different styles, and our depth will help counter against foul trouble. This year we had a noticeable dropoff in scoring any time we went to the bench. Finally, I think our offensive rebounding will be improved due to better size and length on the perimeter, and I think we'll create more turnovers that lead to easy buckets.

I'm definitely psyched for next year!

Not only that, but I hope and expect that the team will be more consistent offensively than it was this year. We had a number of guys in the rotation this year who frankly were pretty streaky. Ryan had a real bad shooting slump early in the year, and then after the fabulous return game against Miami, his shooting was poor the rest of the way. Rasheed had a couple of significant shooting slumps. Quinn was streaky too.

With maturity, I think Quinn and Rasheed's shooting is likely to become less prone to long slumps. Not necessarily -- see Ryan -- but I still would say it's likely. The other factor that may help in this regard is Quinn's maturing as a set-up guy. Quinn hunted his shot a bunch this year, and that tended to detract from our overall offensive efficiency, and I think may have contributed to the shooting slumps of his teammates. When he's not setting up his teammates in good positions, the shots those teammates do get are likely to be tougher ones. Tougher shots equal more missed shots. Having Quinn as a threat to shoot and to drive is of course an important component of our offense. But if he truly embraces a pass-first mentality, and does so all season long, I think that will produce more good shots for the other guys and allow us to be more consistently productive on the offensive end.

[Kedsy]

The other factor that may help in this regard is Quinn's maturing as a set-up guy. Quinn hunted his shot a bunch this year, and that tended to detract from our overall offensive efficiency, and I think may have contributed to the shooting slumps of his teammates. When he's not setting up his teammates in good positions, the shots those teammates do get are likely to be tougher ones. Tougher shots equal more missed shots. Having Quinn as a threat to shoot and to drive is of course an important component of our offense. But if he truly embraces a pass-first mentality, and does so all season long, I think that will produce more good shots for the other guys and allow us to be more consistently productive on the offensive end.

On the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, I interviewed Coach Capel for Blue Devil Nation. I asked him about Quinn hunting his shot instead of looking to distribute, and Coach Capel said:



Well, we need to see both. Quinn needs to score, and that's the bottom line. Even in those early games, those twenty games you're referring to, he still scored the ball. Quinn's had a heck of a year, and he's had a heck of a year because he's been able to find the right balance with both. He needs to be ready to shoot, and take his shots, he needs to be ready to attack off of ball screens and read what the defense gives. But also, he's been very good this year in distributing and in running our club, and he needs to do that. He needs to find the right balance between both, which is something that he's done at a pretty good level all year.


It surprised me a little, that the coaching staff was so adamant about Quinn needing to score. With the team we have next year, I wonder if the coaching staff will feel the same way, in other words whether they'll think that "Quinn needs to score, and that's the bottom line." If the staff's focus (and thus Quinn's focus) is on distributing, then I believe our overall offense will benefit.

[WakeDevil]

The proper word is effective, not efficient.

[MarkD83]

All true. However, a lot of people mean 'during important games' when they are talking minutes. It is an interesting exercise to go through the individual games in 2009-10 and see some 40 min contributions from the 3 Ss vs NC or vs. Butler and 30 min or below vs. Gardner-Webb.

Not tyring to pick on any one person, but this does touch on a pet peeve of mine when talking about minutes played.

In the most important games I want Duke to play its 5 best players as much as possible.

To look at this a different way, when other teams play their substitutes against Duke I am thrilled. Most announcers and analysts talk about how great the depth is, which I have always considered to be way off base. Think along these lines in the Duke/UNC games, I was thrilled to see Roy but Bullock, Hairston and McAdoo on the bench and play other players. Their easy to defend when they are sitting down.

[Kedsy]

The proper word is effective, not efficient.

Proper word for what? When you're talking about Pomeroy's ratings, the proper word is efficiency, because that's what his numbers measure, or at least that's what he says his numbers measure.

Put another way, "offensive efficiency" is a basketball concept. How many points per possession a team scores tells you more than how many points that team scores or how the team looks while it's scoring them. Efficiency is quantifiable and you can see where it comes from (i.e., the "four factors"). "Effective" offense would appear to rely on an eye test, and thus not be particularly quantifiable, and probably not as worthwhile a discussion.

If that's not what you're talking about, I apologize for the tangent.

[licc85]

On the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, I interviewed Coach Capel for Blue Devil Nation. I asked him about Quinn hunting his shot instead of looking to distribute, and Coach Capel said:

It surprised me a little, that the coaching staff was so adamant about Quinn needing to score. With the team we have next year, I wonder if the coaching staff will feel the same way, in other words whether they'll think that "Quinn needs to score, and that's the bottom line." If the staff's focus (and thus Quinn's focus) is on distributing, then I believe our overall offense will benefit.

I'm totally on board with this, and not surprised at all. Every team's primary playmaker needs to be a scoring threat. It's much harder to be a good distributor when defender know you aren't looking to score. I thought Quinn did a really good job most of the year in this regard. He was REALLY good at the beginning of the year, and had a stretch where it would have been tough to argue that he wasn't the second best player on the team after Mason. However, once we got into the conference schedule, he had a few atrocious games shooting the ball (Although I believe he did get a career high in assists during a 0 for 10 shooting night), and also stopped attacking the basket as much as he did earlier in the year, instead settling for long jumpers. I thought he underutilized his floater later in the year, which is actually quite effective. He could really do some damage if he expanded his mid range game. Overall, he was a very good point guard through most of the year, though he disappeared a bit in the postseason. I'm pretty satisfied with Quinn's offensive game. He's only going to get better at running the team, and also improve his shooting and shot selection. These are things that come with maturity and experience.

I'm more worried about his defense, toughness, and leadership. He's got to improve his quickness and stay in front of his man. He got absolutely shredded by both of Louisville's guards (Although Tyler didn't do much better). He also tended to fade in more physical contests, which is somewhat worrisome, given that college basketball is only getting more physical. His leadership is also somewhat of a question mark. He's very likely going to be the most experienced starter on the team next year, but I think it would be difficult to give him captaincy at this point. He hasn't proven (at least from what I've seen) that he's capable of being the type of leader the team needs. Tyler definitely gets my vote for captain. Have we ever had a team with no captains in the starting lineup? I feel like it's a pretty big possibility next year.

Coach Capel is 100% right though, every team needs their point guard to at least be a threat to score. Otherwise, defenders will just play him for the pass and your offense becomes predictable.

[jv001]

On the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, I interviewed Coach Capel for Blue Devil Nation. I asked him about Quinn hunting his shot instead of looking to distribute, and Coach Capel said:



It surprised me a little, that the coaching staff was so adamant about Quinn needing to score. With the team we have next year, I wonder if the coaching staff will feel the same way, in other words whether they'll think that "Quinn needs to score, and that's the bottom line." If the staff's focus (and thus Quinn's focus) is on distributing, then I believe our overall offense will benefit.

Another thing that comes to mind is running down the shot clock during some of our offensive sets. Quinn usually had the ball in his hands and it seemed to me that he took the shot almost everytime. Some of those shots were well guarded and forced. I would like to see him get into the lane the same way but hit a team mate for an open shot. That would mean he has to start the drive to the basket with more time on the clock. Just another thing Quinn can grow into this coming year. GoDuke!