NCAAT: the Sweet Sixteen

[-jk]

Fun first weekend, and an historic performance by FGCU.

These are the remaining matchups, with seed, [kenpom], and current line:

Thu:

3 Marquette [28] v. 2 Miami [13] -5.5
4 Syracuse [12] v. 1 Indiana [3] -5.5

6 Arizona [15] v. 2 Ohio St. [5] -3.5
13 La Salle [46] v. 9 Wichita St [21] -4.0

Fri:

12 Oregon [31] v. 1 Louisville [2] -9.5
3 Michigan St [6] v. 2 Duke [4] -2.0

4 Michigan [8] v. 1 Kansas [9] -2.0
15 FGCU [93] v. 3 Florida [1] -13.0

In every game the higher seeded team is favored by Vegas, with Louisville and Florida projected to have easier games. No one else is favored by more than one or two possessions.

-jk

[hurleyfor3]

Vegas should offer a strangle on the FGCU/UF game. Say, +600 if the margin of victory is greater than five but less than 20 points.

[NovaScotian]

just noticed that duke is 3-1 against the sweet sixteen this season. let's make it 7-1!

[vick]

Andy Glockner reporting that Reggie Johnson didn't make the trip due to injury. He hasn't been all that effective lately but that puts a ton of pressure on Gamble and Kadji, IMO.

[Bluedog]

^Johnson had surgery on his meniscus. Even though he hasn't been lighting in on fire, he's still been rebounding it pretty well so other Canes will need to step up. They say he could potentially be ready for the Final Four if they make it.

[uh_no]

Fun first weekend, and an historic performance by FGCU.

These are the remaining matchups, with seed, [kenpom], and current line:

15 FGCU [93] v. 3 Florida [1] -13.0


I believe according to kenpom, florida is playing CGNU, or crazy go nuts university :P

for the uninitiated:

http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail26.html

and for the theme song

http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail73.html

[Newton_14]

Andy Glockner reporting that Reggie Johnson didn't make the trip due to injury. He hasn't been all that effective lately but that puts a ton of pressure on Gamble and Kadji, IMO.

Call me crazy, I think they are better without Reggie, especially given how Reggie has performed this year. They are much better with Gamble in the game and they still have the young 7 footer to rotate in when Gamble needs rest.

Reggies has bogged down their offense and their D and generally gotten in the way. They are better defensively and offensively without him to me.

They only lose out on having someone to push a defender out of the way for game winning tip ins. :)

[Kedsy]

just noticed that duke is 3-1 against the sweet sixteen this season. let's make it 7-1!

Actually, Duke is 4-1 against the Sweet 16 (wins over Ohio State, Louisville, FGCU, and 1-1 against Miami).

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Reggie Johnson's last 8 games, starting with the Duke game, he's scored a TOTAL of 15 points on 5-24 shooting, while accumulating 15 turnovers and 17 fouls. He has managed 39 rebounds. But really, I think the Canes can replace his nearly 5 rebounds a game, and even if they can't, they can probably find someone who can put up more points than turnovers, and shoot over 20%. It's hard to argue they're losing a whole lot here.

Johnson CAN be an effective player, but he isn't right now, and the Canes may be better off without him.

[Dev11]

I believe according to kenpom, florida is playing CGNU, or crazy go nuts university :P

for the uninitiated:

http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail26.html

and for the theme song

http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail73.html

When KenPom tweeted that out, I nearly died.

...and the Cheat will hit stuff with a golf club.

[CDu]

Pomeroy has us as a 53.7% favorite on Friday. If we win that, we have about a 39% chance of making the Final Four (Louisville is obviously the heavy favorite).

In our region, Pomeroy's overall probabilities of making the Final Four are as follows:
Louisville: 58.1%
Duke: 21.1%
MSU: 16.7%
Oregon: 9.2%

Pomeroy gives us the 5th best chance at winning the title (5.3%, or 1 in 19). UF (29.2%), Louisville (25.3%), Indiana (13.0%), and OSU (8.5%) are ahead. And OSU is only ahead because they have a MUCH easier path to the Final Four than Duke (reducing the probability that they lose before the Final Four and thus don't get the chance to win it all).

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/sweet_16_log51

[Newton_14]

Pomeroy has us as a 53.7% favorite on Friday. If we win that, we have about a 39% chance of making the Final Four (Louisville is obviously the heavy favorite).

In our region, Pomeroy's overall probabilities of making the Final Four are as follows:
Louisville: 58.1%
Duke: 21.1%
MSU: 16.7%
Oregon: 9.2%

Pomeroy gives us the 5th best chance at winning the title (5.3%, or 1 in 19). UF (29.2%), Louisville (25.3%), Indiana (13.0%), and OSU (8.5%) are ahead. And OSU is only ahead because they have a MUCH easier path to the Final Four than Duke (reducing the probability that they lose before the Final Four and thus don't get the chance to win it all).

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/sweet_16_log51

Thanks. Good stuff. If our guys can play at a high level, I like our chances against any team remaining in the field. I do agree Louisville would be the toughest challenge, and honestly, after them, I think for Duke, Miami would be the next toughest challenge.

The key is can our guys put in a 4 game stretch playing at or near their best basketball. I know the odds are still long, and we have the toughest path by far, but it can happen.

What really sucks to me, is the fact that Kelly missed the 13 games and is still coming back up to speed, and Seth has been hurt the entire year. If an buts and all that, but had those two guys been 100% healthy from Oct 15 until now, I feel this team could have been a 2 or 3 loss team, Number 1 overall seed, and heavy favorites to win it all. Sort of like the Kyrie year, the injuries robbed us of a dominant team while still leaving us good enough to be 1 of a handful of teams in the mix to win it.

All that said, here we are in the Sweet 16 still alive an in the mix.

[Furniture]

The odds are long but somebody will win!

[NovaScotian]

Actually, Duke is 4-1 against the Sweet 16 (wins over Ohio State, Louisville, FGCU, and 1-1 against Miami).

Good call! Believe it or not, I was counting fgcu, but had forgotten about OSU.

[BD80]

... In our region, Pomeroy's overall probabilities of making the Final Four are as follows:
Louisville: 58.1%
Duke: 21.1%
MSU: 16.7%
Oregon: 9.2%
...

= 105.1%

I didn't major in statistics, but ... can 2 from our region make it to the Final Four? (5.1% chance?)

[CDu]

= 105.1%

I didn't major in statistics, but ... can 2 from our region make it to the Final Four? (5.1% chance?)

Yeah, that was a typo by me: Oregon has only a 4.1% chance of making the Final Four (I looked at the wrong row: LaSalle is the team with a 9.2% chance).

[BD80]

Yeah, that was a typo by me: Oregon has only a 4.1% chance of making the Final Four (I looked at the wrong row: LaSalle is the team with a 9.2% chance).

Darn. Alec Balwin and I had two teams from our region making it to the Final Four. Would have been a huge upset.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

I can't even explain Miami's performance thus far. Not much effort being expended, and really poor decision making. And Larkin has 2 fouls.

This team looks stunned. By what, I'm not sure.

[TNDukeFan]

Is anyone else having problems? CBS' site is freezing up every five seconds, as are several firstrow links.

[Tripping William]

Team Shoes can't throw it in the ocean.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Team Shoes can't throw it in the ocean.

The effort level has improved, but the shooting has been alarmingly bad.

[Papa John]

Team Shoes can't throw it in the ocean.

In their defense, they've had 2 shooters completely knocked over on 3-point attempts with no call, and Durand Scott was just mugged on all 3 of his layup attempts last trip down with no call... Refs are letting a lot of contact go yet again... I have an ominous feeling we will see more of the same tomorrow night against MSU...

[Tripping William]

A turrible half for Da U.

[mr. synellinden]

In their defense, they've had 2 shooters completely knocked over on 3-point attempts with no call, and Durand Scott was just mugged on all 3 of his layup attempts last trip down with no call... Refs are letting a lot of contact go yet again... I have an ominous feeling we will see more of the same tomorrow night against MSU...

I actually don't think he was fouled once in that sequence. I think Miami is getting outhustled and out-athleted right now. They also look defeated - like they took a punch in the nose and don't want to fight back. Very poor body language right now. They don't have depth and Marquette is making them work hard. I could see this getting away from them in the second half unless they turn it up - Larkin has to ignite it. Let's see what Coach Float Like a Butterfly can do to motivate his team at the half.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

I actually don't think he was fouled once in that sequence. I think Miami is getting outhustled and out-athleted right now. They also look defeated - like they took a punch in the nose and don't want to fight back. Very poor body language right now. They don't have depth and Marquette is making them work hard. I could see this getting away from them in the second half unless they turn it up - Larkin has to ignite it. Let's see what Coach Float Like a Butterfly can do to motivate his team at the half.

Yeah, I agree. I don't think the refs have anything to do with this. This is just a Miami team that looks shell-shocked, or maybe disinterested. They kind of look like they're playing stall ball. Walking the ball up court, dribbling deep into the shot clock. And they're just compounding the poor effort and poor decision making by missing what few open shots they've managed to create. All in all, a pretty embarrassing performance. On this plus side, they should be well rested for the second half.

[pamtar]

Wow. I'm having a hard time comprehending the fact that the U is on pace to drop a whopping 42 points on Marquette. I know the fat lady and all that but dayum. I was expecting them to beat IU handily in the EE. Just sneaking by Illi should have been enough to wake them up, or so I thought...

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Boy, Larkin is just moping around the court. Body language says they lost already. Too bad.

[moonpie23]

miami getting boat raced....

[TNDukeFan]

And Marquette can't miss. See ya U (my bracket champ).

[Tucknut]

I've seen some poor officiating in the tourney but Miami is really getting a raw deal.

[ChillinDuke]

Larranaga looks like Wallace from Wallace and Gromit, no?

- Chillin

[g-money]

Refs are letting a lot of contact go yet again... I have an ominous feeling we will see more of the same tomorrow night against MSU...

Yeah, the way the refs are letting guys get hit/pushed/tripped makes me think somebody's going to get hurt.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is a NCAA-wide reaction to the Duke-Creighton game. Which does not favor us tomorrow, I concur.

[OldPhiKap]

Miami has looked awful all night. Painful to watch. AZ scored more at the half than Miami has with 6:30 to go

[Durham Thunder]

WHAT happened to Miami????

[IBleedBlue]

Actually, I think Durand Scott is trying to do too much by himself. He is not passing the ball and trying to take it to rim even when there are two or three defenders in the lane.
And Marquettes tough defense is stifling Shane Larkin.
I am happy that Miami is finding out how it feels to be blown out by a team in a national stage.

[Durham Thunder]

Miami is shooting 16.7% with 4:27 to go in the game. WOW.

[mr. synellinden]

I've seen some poor officiating in the tourney but Miami is really getting a raw deal.

There have been some missed calls, but this game is about much more than that. Miami has no fight or fire. It's shocking. In fact, for Miami fans it is probably a similar feeling to what we felt against Maryland in the ACC tournament. It's almost beyond comprehension. I'm curious to hear the post-game quotes.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Great season for Miami. REALLY disappointing end. They have just been unable to compete with a team that probably should've lost twice already in this tournament.

The shooting has just been SO bad. They've missed a handful of point blank shots under the basket by alarming margins.

[moonpie23]

i guess reggie WAS propping them up....... :(

sorry to see them go.......great year for them .....congrats

[NashvilleDevil]

Glad Digger picked Miami. Richard please stay away from Duke the rest of the tournament.

[BD80]

I guess tournament experience does mean something

[Durham Thunder]

Hard to believe the team that beat us by 30, looking like the showtime lakers, lost this badly.

[weezie]

Oh deeeeah, miami goes down.

Sniff, I'm all busted up about it. Suddenly that whole court rushing thingy looks pretty dopey.

[ajtrublu]

...and there go my brackets. I had a Duke/Miami final. (Yes, I pick with my heart, not my head. What of it?)

[jacone21]

...and there go my brackets. I had a Duke/Miami final. (Yes, I pick with my heart, not my head. What of it?)

Same here. Hopefully, we still have the Champion picked correctly!

[rsvman]

Larranaga looks like Wallace from Wallace and Gromit, no?

- Chillin

Ha! I hadn't thought of it but he sure does!

[mgtr]

Larranaga had better coaching results before the tilde in his name.

[Papa John]

I actually don't think he was fouled once in that sequence. I think Miami is getting outhustled and out-athleted right now. They also look defeated - like they took a punch in the nose and don't want to fight back. Very poor body language right now. They don't have depth and Marquette is making them work hard. I could see this getting away from them in the second half unless they turn it up - Larkin has to ignite it. Let's see what Coach Float Like a Butterfly can do to motivate his team at the half.

Given what college basketball has become (where scrums in the low post sans whistles are commonplace) and given how much contact the officials were letting go, I suppose you are correct--nobody tackled Scott, so play on... Officiating aside (because heavy contact was being ignored both ways), I agree that Miami just didn't bring it tonight... They couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat in the middle of the Pacific tonight... Probably karma for rushing the court after beating us earlier this year...

[NashvilleDevil]

Probably karma for rushing the court after beating us earlier this year...

It's karma for slapping the floor. Stormed courts are second nature now for Duke teams.

[throatybeard]

Is it just me, or does the Wichita State mascot look like a marijuana-based rolled cylinder?

[sporthenry]

The refs so far in all the games seem to like contact. Doesn't bode well for Duke

[hurleyfor3]

Everyone at espn is officially wrong.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=3286&d=1363801963

[Bluedog]

The refs so far in all the games seem to like contact. Doesn't bode well for Duke

Except in our last game vs Creighton...

[mgtr]

Everyone at espn is officially wrong.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=3286&d=1363801963

Because they went with either Indiana or Miami in the final four. Lose!

[sporthenry]

Except in our last game vs Creighton...

Well I was more talking about these games. The Big East teams have gotten away with very physical play.

[gofurman]

Well I was more talking about these games. The Big East teams have gotten away with very physical play.

It has been documented here that the average number of fouls called in tourney play is usually well below what the acc calls. Someone ran the numbers on this board a few years ago. Thus the low scores in the NCAA tourney as the clock rarely stops and you can defend with more hand checks etc. Our creighton game was the exception. NCAA tourney games are typically rough and low scoring. I recall when we lost to LSU it was noted that Reddick felt what would have been a foul in acc play usually didn't get called in the tourney which was to our detriment as we thrived on having good FT shooters and getting to the line more than our opponent and we couldn't utilize that in the tourney. Also it was listed that the big east called less fouls than the acc during regular season so those teams were often better equipped for NCAA tourney play as they were used to it. Someone here had the numbers of average fouls in acc game, average fouls called in big east game and average fouls in NCAA tourney game. Acc called most fouls, big east less, NCAA tourney the least - thus these brawls under the basket etc we are seeing. We definitely had the exception the other night v creighton I guess it worked out but it was as if k planned for less fouls to be called (which he rightfully should based on history of tourney fouls) and then we were taken aback by how many we're called. We came out aggressive on D and almost lost both front court guys. I haven't seen that many called in any tourney game in a while

[pamtar]

Everyone at espn is officially wrong.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=3286&d=1363801963

Surprisingly, Dickie V is the least wrong of the bunch.

[Bluedog]

Surprisingly, Dickie V is the least wrong of the bunch.

Well, John Gasaway, Robbi Pickeral, and Jay Williams also have 3/4 still alive.

[CDu]

Well, John Gasaway, Robbi Pickeral, and Jay Williams also have 3/4 still alive.

As does Eamann Brennan.

[FerryFor50]

Indiana must not own a TV. Or Internet.

They seemed not to know Syracuse plays zone.

[pamtar]

Well, John Gasaway, Robbi Pickeral, and Jay Williams also have 3/4 still alive.

Indeed they do. Hopefully that observation is the stupidest thing I do today... :o