Phase VII - 2nd Weekend of the NCAA Tournament (2012-13)

[superdave]

Coming after an encouraging win over Creighton to advance to the Sweet 16, Duke heads to Indianapolis for the second weekend of the NCAA tournament and Phase VII of the 2012-2013 season.

Health – At this point we do not expect Ryan Kelly or Seth Curry to be hobbled or to miss any games. We do, however, see some tired legs that come from not being as well-conditioned as they would be without injury.

Seth shot 10-14 from the field including 4-6 on 3s vs. Albany in 36 minutes early Friday afternoon. The Creighton game was about 55 hours later and Seth was 5-15 from the field including 2-9 from 3. Fatigue is an issue after a quick turnaround for Seth, I am assuming due to conditioning. Expect him to play better vs. Michigan State in the first game this weekend than in the second game should we advance.

Ryan’s last four games he has shot 2-4, 3-11, 3-8, 0-5. We know he’s not in peak condition after missing two months, and we know he’s also streaky. He contributed 28 solid minutes vs. Creighton in spite of only scoring 1 point. I am not worried about his injury, I just want him to get hot for the next four games.

Defense - Our defense is back!

We held the Jaybirds to 30.2% from the field, including 2-19 on 3s (10.5%). This Creighton team shot 50% on the season, including 41.4% on 3s (307-742….742!). As a reference point Duke has shot 47.7% from the field and hit 40.3% of its 642 3s. So Creighton hit a higher % of 3s and took 100 more than us. They score 117 points per 100 possessions on the season which is good enough for #8 in the country (KenPom).

Duke held them to 77.6 points per 100 possessions last night. 40 below their average. Wow.

Coach K developed a nice game plan to both guard the 3-point line and disrupt McDermott’s game. Our guys executed the strategy well and showed an aggression on defense that has been largely missing the second half of the season. If we can maintain the aggression and execution we’re going to win some more games this year.

Matchups & Gameplans – Sulaimon scored 21 points in 30 minutes vs. Creighton on Sunday and had his # called often to come off a screen or create his own shot. But on Friday, he was 1-2 from the field and passive. Coach K played Thornton during a key stretch late in the second half vs. Creighton, and sat Quinn Cook, to utilize Tyler’s excellent help-side defensive skills.

With the talk of Coach K treating each game like a championship game, I think we’re seeing major adjustments in tactics for each opponent and shifts in play-calling to implement those new strategies.

With that in mind, I want to take a look at Michigan State, then Lousiville and Oregon, as matchup puzzles that Coach K will gameplan for and hope to solve.

Michigan State – Sparty’s strengths are defense, rebounding and balance.

On defense, they hold opponents to 58.8 points per game which is the tied for 2nd in the offense-averse Big 10. (But they only score 68 per game themselves) They hold opponents to 39% from the field and 29.7% from 3. They are +7.7 rebounds vs opponents which is tops in the Big 10. They average 8.1 steals per game, which is significantly better than Miami’s 6 per game.

On offense, they have 5 guys average between 9 and 13 points per game. Appling leads the team with 13.3 per game, with Gary Harris second at 13.1. Appling has only scored 20+ four times; Harris has gone for 20+ four times, Payne once, Nix twice. Everybody chips in a little, nobody seems to demand too many shots.

In their losses, Sparty had the following poor stats:
vs UConn 15 turnovers, shot 23% from 3.
vs Miami allowed 9-15 on 3s.
vs Minnesota minus 14 on the boards, allowed 27-45 (60%) on 2-point FGs.
vs Indiana 18 turnovers.
vs Indiana no bad stats stick out.
vs OSU 2-11 on 3s.
vs Michigan 35% FGs, 18 turnovers.
vs OSU no bad stats stick out.

In these losses, three trends show up. First, they won the rebound battle in all their losses except the Minnesota game. Second, they had some bad turnover games. Third, they averaged 62 points in their losses, six below their season average. Duke is averaging 78 points per game.

Coach K appears to have two options here. He can try to take away their strength – rebounding and controlling the paint and pace – by crashing the boards, driving to the paint and drawing fouls on Nix/Payne. Coach K is unlikely to seek a land war with Sparty. Or he can maximize the scoring differential (10 more points per game for Duke) and simply sprint past Sparty to the finish line by forcing them to play faster than they like.

I suspect Duke will push the pace in order to get open looks from 3 before the MSU defense gets set and to force their hefty front line to keep up with our quicker athletes. Pushing the pace will also force Appling et all into a pace that’s faster than their decision-making skills can keep up with. We should be able to wear them down and also turn them over en route to victory. The downside for us in this game is to play slow and let them bump our shooters coming off screens and get Ryan and Mason into foul trouble in an overly physical wrasslin match.

The pre-game thread (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?31018-MBB-Duke-vs-Sparty-NCAA-Sweet-16-%28Fri-2145-EDT-CBS%29-Pre-In-Game-Thread) has some great posts on the individual strengths and weakesses of their roster.

Louisville – Should Duke beat Sparty and move on to play Pitino again, there are two main differences between Louisville today and the squad we beat in November in the Bahamas. Gorgui Dieng did not play that night because of a wrist injury. He averages 10 points, 9.5 boards and 2.4 blocks per. (Mason went for 16 and 7 that night)

Second, Louisville has since become the best defense in the country, holding opponents to 81 points per 100 possessions, 57.6 points per game, and 39% from the field. Duke scored 76 that night and had 5 starters in double digits. Louisville has not allowed more than 61 points in a game for twelve straight games now (all wins).

They are +3.8 on the boards and +6.3 in turnover margin. Siva had 6 steals vs. Duke and is averaging 2.3 per on the season.

Duke will have to both be efficient on offense, by protecting the ball and forcing the Cardinals to play defense for a lot of the shot clock, and pick up a few extra possessions through offensive rebounding. Duke will have to control the pace, slowing things down, to force the Cards to execute on offense. They shoot 45% from the field, but put up 150 more shots than us. If we slow the game down, they have to prove they can be as efficient in a half-court set as they are getting up and down. Force Louisville to make every offensive possession count and we’ll find out if they can win without a lot of transition buckets. Duke’s defense can be pretty good and slowing the pace will be the recipe for proving it vs. Louisville. On the other hand, live ball turnovers and long rebounds could be the death of us because Louisville could score a lot in transition.

Oregon – Should the Pac 12 champs upset Louisville and Duke fight off MSU, Duke would face a pretty good yet unremarkable Oregon team. EJ Singler leads the team in scoring with only 11.6 points and they go 9 deep. The two things the Ducks do pretty well are rebound (+6 per game) and force turnovers (15.4 per game, 8.5 steals). Oregon only shoots 33% from 3, and its best long range shooters are all under 40%. If Duke can keep control of the paint and force Oregon to hit outside shots, Duke should advance.

All three opponents play really good D and are all top 10 in Adjusted Defense in KenPom’s rankings. The offensive onus will be on Quinn to keep the offense settled and efficient, and on Mason and Seth to attack without turning the ball over. Our defensive efforts should be aimed at turning Michigan State over and slowing Louisville down.

Should be fun. Go Duke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Cut lots of excellent analysis

What a great synopsis of our remaining bracket. I don't have much to add, except to mention that this weekend will be what separates a really good season from a fantastic season. There is no shame in losing to any of the teams (or coaches!) in our bracket this week. We will have to play exceptional basketball to win.

I would also like to bring up something mentioned in the Creighton thread - Coach K's gameplanning for the Blue Jays was great. It made me realize that we rarely end up discussing Duke's game plans against other teams. In recent history, it seems that our team has taken the approach of "we do what we do best and we will beat you doing it," leaving the other team to make adjustments and change their game to battle our strengths. The most dramatic changes I can remember the last few years have been small tweaks or lineup and matchup changes. I think it speaks volumes that Coach K made strategic changes on defense to best counter their prodigious offensive strengths.

K v. Izzo will certainly be a chess match, and I found it refreshing to see that after three decades at Duke, K is still willing to play a different style of ball to throw teams a different look.

I have really enjoyed this team this year. Their early-season successes were so much fun to watch. Seeing them battle through adversity together during Ryan's injury and then come back together at the end of the season was a joy. Their disappointment in the ACC tournament was palpable. I would love to see them pull together this weekend and really come into championship form against two really talented opponents.

Go Duke!

[Kedsy]

Nice writeup, Dave. These are going to be tough games this weekend.


Seth shot 10-14 from the field including 4-6 on 3s vs. Albany in 36 minutes early Friday afternoon. The Creighton game was about 55 hours later and Seth was 5-15 from the field including 2-9 from 3. Fatigue is an issue after a quick turnaround for Seth, I am assuming due to conditioning. Expect him to play better vs. Michigan State in the first game this weekend than in the second game should we advance.

For what it's worth, after the Creighton game, Seth said he felt great during the game. I'd also note Seth shot much better in the 2nd half of the game (40% on threes; 50% overall) than he did in the first, which would seem counter-intuitive if the injury caused the poor overall shooting.

So while the evidence thus far seems to suggest Seth shoots worse on quick turnarounds like this, both Seth and Coach Capel said this weekend that it has little or nothing to do with his injury. Not saying I completely believe that, but that's what they said.



Defense - Our defense is back!

I think two things are key for Duke's defense. First communication. Coach K said after the game that it was the best we've talked on defense all season. Perhaps more importantly, I believe, is simply bringing it for 40 minutes. After Friday's game, Amile Jefferson told me we hadn't yet seen Duke's defense at its best for a full game. Well, we did on Sunday, and we have to continue to see full 40 effort from here on in.

[rifraf]

Very excited for this game! I love the idea of watching K vs Izzo, it really doesn't get any better than that in March! At the beginning of the season, before our run through the top 5 teams, I felt like a Sweet 16 was a very attainable goal for us. Now that we've made it, I'm not going to stress out about the coming games like I was stressing the idea of losing in the first weekend. Obviously I want to see us cutting down those nets in Atlanta, but at this point I'm strapping myself in to enjoy the rest of the season without getting upset about a loss.

Go Duke!

[MCFinARL]

Agree with a couple of others in this thread that the matchup(s) this weekend are exciting and leave me feeling a little less stressed than usual--because these teams are so good that it would be terrific to beat them and no shame to lose--as long as the team plays hard and leaves it all on the floor, which I think they will.

In some ways it might even be easier for the team, psychologically, to face a really tough matchup than one they are "supposed" to win. They know they need to bring it 100% and they are not under as much pressure from expectations. But that's easy for me to say from the couch in front of the TV.

[Andre Buckner Fan]

I am relishing the lack of any media attention - positive or negative - for Duke.

For the first time since 2010, we are seen as an underdog. This while being possibly underseeded, hungry, and senior-laden. No game in the tourney is a gimme, but I really like the way that things are lining up.

For me the two keys to victory are bench players growing up during the tourney (like we just saw Amile, and Tyler do) and Seth Curry.

Mason grabbed his proper respect early. Everyone realized how valuable Kelly was only after his injury and his monster game against Miami. But the key for the rest of the season is Curry. He's saved his leg for now. He came to Duke for this stretch of games. From here on out, how Seth Curry plays decides our fate.

No man is a team, but every championship team must have that one player who must be that first among equals.

Back in 2010, it was Nolan Smith. That was his year. He knew it. He left it all on the court.
In 2013, it is Seth Curry...

[camion]

Could we stoop to wearing light blue uniforms so MSU thinks they are playing UNC? We'd win by 20.

On second thought, not worth it.

[Andre Buckner Fan]

Could we stoop to wearing light blue uniforms so MSU thinks they are playing UNC? We'd win by 20.

On second thought, not worth it.

No, because K would have to start saying things like "dadgumit", and that would cause a rift in time and space.

[TKG]

I will serve as the worrywart and the vessel for all stress for the board as it relates to the MSU game. I am worried about our defensive rebounding. I am worried about MSU on the offensive glass. I am worried about our ability to limit their second chance opportunities. I am worried about Mason and Ryan getting into foul trouble.

Generally, I am worried.

[Bob Green]

Dave, thanks for a solid Phase VII Post! I'll limit my initial comments to the Sweet 16 game against Michigan State.




Michigan State – Sparty’s strengths are defense, rebounding and balance.

On defense, they hold opponents to 58.8 points per game which is the tied for 2nd in the offense-averse Big 10. (But they only score 68 per game themselves) They hold opponents to 39% from the field and 29.7% from 3. They are +7.7 rebounds vs opponents which is tops in the Big 10. They average 8.1 steals per game, which is significantly better than Miami’s 6 per game.

On offense, they have 5 guys average between 9 and 13 points per game. Appling leads the team with 13.3 per game, with Gary Harris second at 13.1. Appling has only scored 20+ four times; Harris has gone for 20+ four times, Payne once, Nix twice. Everybody chips in a little, nobody seems to demand too many shots.



When it comes to playing Coach Izzo and MSU, the grabbing, clutching, bumping, pushing, shoving, let's get away with as much as possible physical play concerns me. Hopefully the refs can keep the game under control without destroying any and all game flow. I don't want to see the ticky tack stuff called like in the Creighton game, but I definitely want our shooters to be able to come off screens without a Spartan having a hand full of jersey a la J.J. in 2005. There has to be a happy median between those two extremes.

Duke typically gets beat on the boards so I'm not concerned about the second chance points but will acknowledge we can't allow third and fourth chance points. We must keep their offensive rebounding numbers respectable. I am more concerned about the 8.1 steals per game. We MUST take care of the ball and limit extra possessions for Sparty!

A high scoring game favors Duke so I'm looking for a final score in excess of the 134 points Vegas has set as the over/under.

I'm confident the guys will play tough and give their best shot and that is all we can expect at this point in the tournament where every opponent will be quality.

Defensively, I'll repeat what I said before the Creighton game, our perimeter players are superior to MSU's so we need to pressure the ball and make it as hard as possible for them to get good looks.

[NSDukeFan]

I will serve as the worrywart and the vessel for all stress for the board as it relates to the MSU game. I am worried about our defensive rebounding. I am worried about MSU on the offensive glass. I am worried about our ability to limit their second chance opportunities. I am worried about Mason and Ryan getting into foul trouble.

Generally, I am worried.

I am worried that the next game could be the last one that I watch this team play. I am not worried that I will feel that Duke lost to an inferior opponent, if the team loses this weekend. I am excited that if the team makes it through this weekend, I will feel much like I did when the team played brilliantly and won in the Bahamas against a very tough draw. Except I would feel even better, since a Regional championship > ACC championship > ACC regular season first place finish > pre-season championship.
I am also worried about Harris and Dawson. Dawson impressed me when Duke played them last year and I keep hearing how good Harris is and have heard nothing refuting that. I actually feel semi-relaxed as I feel that Duke is going to come out and play very good basketball and compete hard against Michigan State. Note that I also felt this way prior to the Arizona game in 2011, but Duke wins much more than it loses. Go Duke!

[BD80]

The aspect of this team that I focus on is the improvement of the team and the individuals. Prior to the conference schedule we had played seven tournament teams, three of which made it to the sweet 16 (add Miami and we're 4-1 against the remaining field). It appears to me that Louisville, OSU and FGCU are clearly playing better than when we played them. Are we?

Before the Creighton game, I'd have said we hadn't improved much. I am mucn more encouraged now.

I will say our guards have improved, even Seth, at the offensive end - with the exception of fast breaks and secondary breaks. I think we will see that as a focus this weekend. On D, it is very tough to analyze because it is dependent on the opponent. Against Creighton, we were able to press coverage against the ball handler and shade passing lanes better than we have in a long time. But I think that level of activity spurred us into better rotations on the weak side. Yes, there was better communication, but it seemed like there was better effort and a more instinctive flow = improvement.

Our bigs get an incomplete as to improvement. Mason is improving his post game, but not his ability to get post position. Ryan has merely proven how important it is to get him back to where he was. Josh and Amile have really stepped up - it is fair to say we are eight deep. Marshall might be able to provide a few minutes and five fouls.

I am really looking forward to our next game. I think we will step it up another notch.

[wilko]

Could we stoop to wearing light blue uniforms so MSU thinks they are playing UNC? We'd win by 20.

On second thought, not worth it.

Who are we, UNC football? That just wont do...

[wilko]

Defense - Our defense is back!

We held the Jaybirds to 30.2% from the field, including 2-19 on 3s (10.5%). This Creighton team shot 50% on the season, including 41.4% on 3s (307-742….742!). As a reference point Duke has shot 47.7% from the field and hit 40.3% of its 642 3s. So Creighton hit a higher % of 3s and took 100 more than us. They score 117 points per 100 possessions on the season which is good enough for #8 in the country (KenPom).

Duke held them to 77.6 points per 100 possessions last night. 40 below their average. Wow.

Coach K developed a nice game plan to both guard the 3-point line and disrupt McDermott’s game. Our guys executed the strategy well and showed an aggression on defense that has been largely missing the second half of the season. If we can maintain the aggression and execution we’re going to win some more games this year.



Respectfully - I'm still a bit skeptical. I want you to be right.... I'm just not sure.
Creighton played to their strengths of passing and shooting. They aren't drivers and penetrators. That's just not what they do. I think maybe our Defense is merely good at stopping what teams like a Creighton want to do as opposed to being an all purpose defense.

I am ever hopeful we can limit penetration.

[gam7]

Ryan’s last four games he has shot 2-4, 3-11, 3-8, 0-5. We know he’s not in peak condition after missing two months, and we know he’s also streaky. He contributed 28 solid minutes vs. Creighton in spite of only scoring 1 point. I am not worried about his injury, I just want him to get hot for the next four games.



Nice work Dave. During Ryan's career, Duke is 41-1 when Ryan scores in double figures. The one loss was the 2011-12 home FSU Snaer game, and Ryan scored 10 points on 3-9 shooting in that one. I think this is enough of a sample size to be able to draw the conclusion that when Ryan is scoring the ball effectively (and particularly when he does it efficiently), we are extremely difficult to beat - in Ryan's case it seems more like causation than correlation to me. As you say, now would be a very convenient time for him to get hot.

[Troublemaker]

I'm hoping a more interesting take than what I'm about to write will come to my mind at some point this week. But right now, the only thing I can think about is the cold, boring, mathematical truth that Duke will have to get lucky to advance to the Final Four.

Now, hold on, before anyone gets their knickers in a twist, this isn't a "negative" post, per se. It's a nerd/mathematical post. If anyone reads my posts, you know I'm actually very high on this Duke team and have great confidence in them.

But math is math, and here's what I'm thinking/calculating.

Duke is a slightly better team than MSU; if both teams played the full gamut of Div I opponents, Duke would accumulate the slightly better record. Unfortunately, head-to-head, MSU is a particularly wicked matchup for Duke so instead of being a 60/40 favorite over MSU, this game is really a 50/50 tossup. I say that because of Mason's dislike of playing against widebodies, MSU's rebounding, and Branden Dawson almost certainly putting up "unexpected production" due to Duke's small perimeter. (It's weird. If an opponent has a big, physical SF, I'd almost prefer that guy to be a key player instead of a role player b/c then the opponent doesn't receive the "unexpected production" from a role player that provides the opponent a big psychological boost.) But the point is, I believe this is a 50/50 tossup game.

If Duke were to advance to play Louisville, a sort of opposite scenario would occur. I believe Louisville is slightly better than Duke in that they would accumulate a better record playing against the full gamut of Div 1 opponents. But Duke is actually a particularly wicked matchup for Louisville in that Duke actually has the great ball-handling (#4 in turnover ratio) needed to attack Lville's great defense. Our big guys can handle and pass the ball and be release valves against pressure, something 99% of teams don't have. Duke is blessed enough to have Ryan and Mason and they also happen to be our senior leaders. And so instead of being a 40/60 underdog against Lville, this game under normal circumstances would actually be a 50/50 tossup as well. BUT, and this is what saddens me, we have to play Mich St beforehand and Lville has to play Oregon beforehand. Mich St is going to be a war and it's going to take a lot more out of us than Oregon will take out of Lville. In another thread, I called this the 1986 redux scenario with Lville again benefitting. So, instead of 50/50, we're back to 40/60 in this matchup due to Duke's fatigue in a hypothetical Duke/Lville matchup on a quick turnaround.

So 50% x 40% means a 20% chance of advancing out of this bracket. You have to bump that up a bit b/c of the possibility that Oregon beats Louisville, so let's call it an even 25% chance. You play this bracket out a million times and I expect Duke to advance somewhere around 25% of those times.

So we need to get lucky. We need to flip a quarter and have it come up heads twice in a row. In basketball terms, we need whatever it is that we need for the 25% to manifest itself rather than the 75%, be it hot shooting from Duke, the opponents playing a C+ game, a beneficial call at a key moment, perfect health for Duke, a sprained ankle for an opponent (obligatory: not that we're rooting for that), whatever it might be. This is a brutal path. We're basically playing a Final Four before the Final Four, and we'll need a little pixie dust to make it through. And the same goes for Mich St, Lville, and Oregon as well. None of these four teams can advance without some luck. The path is brutal for us all.

One team is going to get lucky and win this weekend. That's just the cold, boring, mathematical truth. Hopefully that lucky team is Duke.

[Saratoga2]

I'm hoping a more interesting take than what I'm about to write will come to my mind at some point this week. But right now, the only thing I can think about is the cold, boring, mathematical truth that Duke will have to get lucky to advance to the Final Four.

Now, hold on, before anyone gets their knickers in a twist, this isn't a "negative" post, per se. It's a nerd/mathematical post. If anyone reads my posts, you know I'm actually very high on this Duke team and have great confidence in them.

But math is math, and here's what I'm thinking/calculating.

Duke is a slightly better team than MSU; if both teams played the full gamut of Div I opponents, Duke would accumulate the slightly better record. Unfortunately, head-to-head, MSU is a particularly wicked matchup for Duke so instead of being a 60/40 favorite over MSU, this game is really a 50/50 tossup. I say that because of Mason's dislike of playing against widebodies, MSU's rebounding, and Branden Dawson almost certainly putting up "unexpected production" due to Duke's small perimeter. (It's weird. If an opponent has a big, physical SF, I'd almost prefer that guy to be a key player instead of a role player b/c then the opponent doesn't receive the "unexpected production" from a role player that provides the opponent a big psychological boost.) But the point is, I believe this is a 50/50 tossup game.

If Duke were to advance to play Louisville, a sort of opposite scenario would occur. I believe Louisville is slightly better than Duke in that they would accumulate a better record playing against the full gamut of Div 1 opponents. But Duke is actually a particularly wicked matchup for Louisville in that Duke actually has the great ball-handling (#4 in turnover ratio) needed to attack Lville's great defense. Our big guys can handle and pass the ball and be release valves against pressure, something 99% of teams don't have. Duke is blessed enough to have Ryan and Mason and they also happen to be our senior leaders. And so instead of being a 40/60 underdog against Lville, this game under normal circumstances would actually be a 50/50 tossup as well. BUT, and this is what saddens me, we have to play Mich St beforehand and Lville has to play Oregon beforehand. Mich St is going to be a war and it's going to take a lot more out of us than Oregon will take out of Lville. In another thread, I called this the 1986 redux scenario with Lville again benefitting. So, instead of 50/50, we're back to 40/60 in this matchup due to Duke's fatigue in a hypothetical Duke/Lville matchup on a quick turnaround.

So 50% x 40% means a 20% chance of advancing out of this bracket. You have to bump that up a bit b/c of the possibility that Oregon beats Louisville, so let's call it an even 25% chance. You play this bracket out a million times and I expect Duke to advance somewhere around 25% of those times.

So we need to get lucky. We need to flip a quarter and have it come up heads twice in a row. In basketball terms, we need whatever it is that we need for the 25% to manifest itself rather than the 75%, be it hot shooting from Duke, the opponents playing a C+ game, a beneficial call at a key moment, perfect health for Duke, a sprained ankle for an opponent (obligatory: not that we're rooting for that), whatever it might be. This is a brutal path. We're basically playing a Final Four before the Final Four, and we'll need a little pixie dust to make it through. And the same goes for Mich St, Lville, and Oregon as well. None of these four teams can advance without some luck. The path is brutal for us all.

One team is going to get lucky and win this weekend. That's just the cold, boring, mathematical truth. Hopefully that lucky team is Duke.

Yes, the odds are against us but if you look at the other 3 teams still in our bracket, you would conclude Oregon has a 15% chance?, Michigan St a 25 % chance? and Louisville a 35% chance? Coach K's approach is to take it a game at a time, treating each as the championship. So Friday we have a 50% chance. Assuming no one gets hurt we would probably have something like a 50% chance of moving to the final 4. Feels better to think of it in that way.

[Indoor66]

But math is math, and here's what I'm thinking/calculating.

Duke is playing basketball. Stats are based on large numbers. Each game is a one off event. At this level and with teams of this quality, I would argue that each game is a 50-50 event and the history has, relatively, little impact. All of the ballyhooed statistical analyis goes out the window. I like our chances from here forward.

[CDu]

Yes, the odds are against us but if you look at the other 3 teams still in our bracket, you would conclude Oregon has a 15% chance?, Michigan St a 25 % chance? and Louisville a 35% chance? Coach K's approach is to take it a game at a time, treating each as the championship. So Friday we have a 50% chance. Assuming no one gets hurt we would probably have something like a 50% chance of moving to the final 4. Feels better to think of it in that way.

Right. A multiple-iteration game (like a tournament) is never going to favor any one particular team. That's just the nature of probability. Fortunately, we don't have to play both games simultaneously. We have a 50+% chance to win Friday. If we win Friday, then we'll have a close to 50% chance of making the Final Four.

One game at a time.

[superdave]

I'm hoping a more interesting take than what I'm about to write will come to my mind at some point this week. But right now, the only thing I can think about is the cold, boring, mathematical truth that Duke will have to get lucky to advance to the Final Four.

Now, hold on, before anyone gets their knickers in a twist, this isn't a "negative" post, per se. It's a nerd/mathematical post. If anyone reads my posts, you know I'm actually very high on this Duke team and have great confidence in them.

But math is math, and here's what I'm thinking/calculating.

Duke is a slightly better team than MSU; if both teams played the full gamut of Div I opponents, Duke would accumulate the slightly better record. Unfortunately, head-to-head, MSU is a particularly wicked matchup for Duke so instead of being a 60/40 favorite over MSU, this game is really a 50/50 tossup. I say that because of Mason's dislike of playing against widebodies, MSU's rebounding, and Branden Dawson almost certainly putting up "unexpected production" due to Duke's small perimeter. (It's weird. If an opponent has a big, physical SF, I'd almost prefer that guy to be a key player instead of a role player b/c then the opponent doesn't receive the "unexpected production" from a role player that provides the opponent a big psychological boost.) But the point is, I believe this is a 50/50 tossup game.

If Duke were to advance to play Louisville, a sort of opposite scenario would occur. I believe Louisville is slightly better than Duke in that they would accumulate a better record playing against the full gamut of Div 1 opponents. But Duke is actually a particularly wicked matchup for Louisville in that Duke actually has the great ball-handling (#4 in turnover ratio) needed to attack Lville's great defense. Our big guys can handle and pass the ball and be release valves against pressure, something 99% of teams don't have. Duke is blessed enough to have Ryan and Mason and they also happen to be our senior leaders. And so instead of being a 40/60 underdog against Lville, this game under normal circumstances would actually be a 50/50 tossup as well. BUT, and this is what saddens me, we have to play Mich St beforehand and Lville has to play Oregon beforehand. Mich St is going to be a war and it's going to take a lot more out of us than Oregon will take out of Lville. In another thread, I called this the 1986 redux scenario with Lville again benefitting. So, instead of 50/50, we're back to 40/60 in this matchup due to Duke's fatigue in a hypothetical Duke/Lville matchup on a quick turnaround.

So 50% x 40% means a 20% chance of advancing out of this bracket. You have to bump that up a bit b/c of the possibility that Oregon beats Louisville, so let's call it an even 25% chance. You play this bracket out a million times and I expect Duke to advance somewhere around 25% of those times.

So we need to get lucky. We need to flip a quarter and have it come up heads twice in a row. In basketball terms, we need whatever it is that we need for the 25% to manifest itself rather than the 75%, be it hot shooting from Duke, the opponents playing a C+ game, a beneficial call at a key moment, perfect health for Duke, a sprained ankle for an opponent (obligatory: not that we're rooting for that), whatever it might be. This is a brutal path. We're basically playing a Final Four before the Final Four, and we'll need a little pixie dust to make it through. And the same goes for Mich St, Lville, and Oregon as well. None of these four teams can advance without some luck. The path is brutal for us all.

One team is going to get lucky and win this weekend. That's just the cold, boring, mathematical truth. Hopefully that lucky team is Duke.

Fortunately, we do not have to play a combined Michigan State-Louisville squad. I'll take our better than even odds to win Friday, and worry about the next opponent after. I assume, and hope, our players and coaches are tkaing this one game at a time.

Better yet, I'd rather our guys concentrate on a good opening 5 minutes vs Sparty. Get off to a good start and have them playing OUR game, and we'll be in pretty good shape.

[Listen to Quants]

Duke is playing basketball. Stats are based on large numbers. Each game is a one off event. At this level and with teams of this quality, I would argue that each game is a 50-50 event and the history has, relatively, little impact. All of the ballyhooed statistical analyis goes out the window. I like our chances from here forward.


“'The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong', but that's the way to bet.” -Damon Runyon