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gw67
08-21-2007, 10:19 AM
I enjoyed reading DBR's pre-season analysis of the Heels. Just two thoughts: (1) The Heels will take the personality of their coach. He likes to push the ball, punch the ball inside and have a long bench. These will be characteristics of this year's team. (2) The key player this year, IMO, will be Thompson not Frasor. If he can rebound and complement the inside scoring of Hansbrough, then they will be a top team. I expect their perimeter players to be better than last year and only behind Duke's set of outside players in the ACC.

gw67

riverside6
08-21-2007, 10:33 AM
One way that I always rate a team is by looking at the number of NBA players. As a general rule, I feel a team needs 3 NBA'ers to contend for a championship.

Losing Terry and Wright hurts UNC from this standpoint with Hansbrough, Lawson, and Ellington still eligible from that standpoint.

UNC is a much more "normal" team this season, and if I had to focus on a key point for them it will be perimeter shooting. Hansbrough will certainly be the focus of defenses, and especially with the penetration ability of Lawson teams will back away and allow UNC to shoot. Unfortunately, the Heels lost arguably their two best shooters in Miller and Terry. Ellington is certainly capable, but Green, Lawson, and the rest are suspect.

Wander
08-21-2007, 10:41 AM
DBR is trying to be too cute in their analysis. Frasor's a fine player and all, but he isn't the key player to UNC's success this year.

gw67
08-21-2007, 11:04 AM
riverside - At this time, I see UNC as a good team, probably the best from the ACC. IMO, they have four players who will eventually play in the NBA - Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington and Thompson, although I don't see any of them being stars in the 24-second league.

Losing Terry hurts their outside shooting but Miller was very average from the outside last year. I expect Ellington to improve his long range shooting and for Frasor, Lawson and Green to be average (33-37%) from the outside.

gw67

riverside6
08-21-2007, 11:06 AM
I like Thompson, and he could be an NBA'er.

After posting, I looked at their team stats (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/ACCRoster.asp?sTeam=NC) from a season ago, and realized I forgot about Frasor who shot pretty well, and Lawson actually shot better than I remembered as well.

Don't get me wrong, I still believe they are the best team in the ACC, I just think they are going to have a tough time winning games without hitting the 3. Of course that probably could be said about most teams nowadays.

ACCBBallFan
08-21-2007, 03:26 PM
UNC will be a tough out, despite losig Terry and Wright, and to a much lesser extent Miller.

Terry though often a bonehead would have been an absolute nightmare matchup for Duke this year, or any team that wants to/has to play 3 guard set, and is already out manned in the post by Tyler.

UNC faithful are really big on Deon thanks to a fine effort in U-19 games, so same should hold true for Solomon Alabi the FSU 7 foot frosh who played even better for Nigeria in U-19.

I actually expect the most improvement from the juniors Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard as one becomes a starter and the other a key reserve.

I have this naggin feeling that Bobby Frasor may not be fully recovered from his foot ailments last year.

I like the guy as a player when healthful but a lot of the fan base takes turn throwing stones and him or QT rather than enjoying the luxury the team has with oth of them.

My guess is UNC goes 14-2 in ACC wins and 2 losses @ NCS, @ GT @ CL and @ DU.

SilkyJ
08-21-2007, 03:37 PM
Danny green has a great outside shot, and very good size/strength. but no D. If he can step his D up a little they're starting backcourt of Lawson, Ellington, Green would be pretty formidable. I could see them averaging 45-47/game in a best case scenario...

ACCBBallFan
08-21-2007, 03:40 PM
Danny green has a great outside shot, and very good size/strength. but no D. If he can step his D up a little they're starting backcourt of Lawson, Ellington, Green would be pretty formidable. I could see them averaging 45-47/game in a best case scenario... That's my feeling that Green gets beat a lot and then recovers so has pretty good blocks stats. UNC fans see him as a good defender, though not as good as Ginyard.

BTW, according to that artile UNC has a new player, Tyrone Lawson.

wilko
08-21-2007, 08:26 PM
How do you save a Tarheel from drowning?


Take your foot off his head when hes in the water..




I hope they all slip in shower and break a leg and cant field a team this year.
That would make me happy

ACCBBallFan
08-22-2007, 05:52 AM
How do you save a Tarheel from drowning?


Take your foot off his head when hes in the water..

I hope they all slip in shower and break a leg and cant field a team this year.
That would make me happy
Though I am not the typical love one hate the other when it comes to Duke, UNC or any other ACC school, I find any comment wishing injury on a player distateful.

Joke was funny but borderline. If poster had stopped there, I would not have commented.

Bob Green
08-22-2007, 06:47 AM
UNC is a talented team and the odds on favorite to win the ACC Championship. However, they have some weaknesses and I trust Coach K and Staff will exploit those weaknesses:

1. Backcourt - Lawson is awesome at times but prone to inconsistency. Ellington is inconsistent with his shot and hurt (does anyone know the details?). QT is absolutely terrible. Frasor might be the key to their backcourt performance. Is he healthy?

2. Danny Green has talent but it remains to be seen if he can make the transition from reserve to full time player. I definitely do not see him as a go to guy. That 3-point brick he threw up down-the-stretch against Georgetown has probably been eating away at him all off-season. How does he respond?

3. Leadership! Who replaces Terry as the team leader? I believe the average Carolina fan is underestimating the impact of Terry's graduation.

4. The on-court relationship between Hansbrough/Thompson/Stephenson. Do they compliment each other or get in each others way? In my estimation, that is the key to Carolina's season.

5. Marcus Ginyard. He needs to play major minutes because of his heart and defensive skill sets. However, that means other players will have to sit. Will Coach Williams make the tough "PT" decisions or continue to play everybody?

I see Carolina as a tough inside team with an inconsistent backcourt and serious question marks on the bench. They have the potential to win the ACC Championship and National Title, but they could just as easily bow out early.

Coach Williams has a tough job ahead of him this year. He is going to have to be on the top of his game if Carolina is to reach their potential. I predict Duke sweeps Carolina in the regular season.

ACCBBallFan
08-22-2007, 09:19 AM
That's a bold prediction, Bob, but if the shoulder injury affects Ellington;s already shaky outside shooting, if Bobby Frasor's chronic foot injury persists, and if Deon?Alex crowd Tyler rather than being complementary inside forces, that could even the odds.

Not sure Terry ever materialized as a true leader but who can be this year besides Marcus Inyard and Tyler as a quiet lead by example, is a valid question.

If anybody can expose any potential weaknesses in UNC, coach K would be th guy, just not sure many other ACC coaches won't cave against the Heels. The guy who had their number last year, Seth Greenberg thanks to his senior corps, is pretty well depleted this year with only Deron Washington and AD Vassallo.

Road games @ GA T, @ Miami and @ UVA plus home and homes with Duke, NCS, Clemson, FSU and BC seem like most dangerous as Heels should handle home games with WF, VA Tech and MD fairly easily.

Guess that's why they play the season but I still think UNC ends up about 14-2 in ACC.

Patrick Yates
08-22-2007, 10:05 AM
UNC is a talented team and the odds on favorite to win the ACC Championship. However, they have some weaknesses and I trust Coach K and Staff will exploit those weaknesses:

1. Backcourt - Lawson is awesome at times but prone to inconsistency. Ellington is inconsistent with his shot and hurt (does anyone know the details?). QT is absolutely terrible. Frasor might be the key to their backcourt performance. Is he healthy?

2. Danny Green has talent but it remains to be seen if he can make the transition from reserve to full time player. I definitely do not see him as a go to guy. That 3-point brick he threw up down-the-stretch against Georgetown has probably been eating away at him all off-season. How does he respond?

3. Leadership! Who replaces Terry as the team leader? I believe the average Carolina fan is underestimating the impact of Terry's graduation.

4. The on-court relationship between Hansbrough/Thompson/Stephenson. Do they compliment each other or get in each others way? In my estimation, that is the key to Carolina's season.

5. Marcus Ginyard. He needs to play major minutes because of his heart and defensive skill sets. However, that means other players will have to sit. Will Coach Williams make the tough "PT" decisions or continue to play everybody?

I see Carolina as a tough inside team with an inconsistent backcourt and serious question marks on the bench. They have the potential to win the ACC Championship and National Title, but they could just as easily bow out early.

Coach Williams has a tough job ahead of him this year. He is going to have to be on the top of his game if Carolina is to reach their potential. I predict Duke sweeps Carolina in the regular season.


UNC is going to be VERY good this year. Possibly better than last year. I totally agree with the DBR that while Wright had loads of potential, he did not mesh with Hans very well.

As for Mr. Green's predictions

1. Backcourt: Everyone takes it as a given that ALL of Duke's players will improve overall as players and that they will hammer out any and every weakness over the summer through hard work. Why does UNC not get the same benefit? Lawson will be much more consistent as a Soph. Remember the jump that Avery, J-Will, C-Du et al PGs at Duke made from Frosh to Soph year? I think Lawson and Ellington make the same Jump this year. Yes their outside shooting was lacking, but there is an outside possibility they know this. I think they spent the summer honing thier jumpers. Yes QT is bad. If UNC needs him for anything beyond spot minutes in the last home game of the year, UNC has suffered catastrophic injuries. Not major injuries, catastrophic ones. Frasor is a capable combo capable of spelling either guard slot.

2. They do not now, and likely never will, need Green to be a go-to player. All he has to be is Nate James lite. Solid D and rebounding with the occaisional flash of O. Yes that last 3 will haunt him. If last season's final performance has any impact on this year, Jon Scheyer, and Duke, is in very serious trouble. But I guess that is something that will only affect UNC, but not Duke, much like the they won't improve and we will approach.

3. I think Lawson or Hans takes over. Personally, I never saw Terry as any kind of a leader. He seemed to me to be a Sr who never adjusted to, and actually resented, the emergence of far superiour younger players.

4. Arizona. Specifically, the game where Wright was sick and Thompson and Stephenson played more and looked fantastic, at Arizona, where UNC violated the wildcats. The three posts looked great together, and I am guessing that a summer together will hone that into a fearsome weapon that Duke will see up close and personal this year.

5. I do not see Williams doling out minutes like this. He plays a deep bench and will utilize it based on who deserves to play. His recent history, if not his entire history, have shown that he is capable of making these decisions wisely.

I see UNC as a team with a fear insiring front line, right now. I think their backcourt will be scary by December. As a league, we should be thrilled if UNC loses 2 games. They have a real chance to go undefeated. As for Duke sweeping them, how? I will have to see us score inside to believe it. UNC will have trouble guarding Singler, but Singler has to play D also. Yes, I know, he shut down that 7 footer at that all star game. That center was a perimeter oriented player. Not a low post beast like Singler will face at UNC. Duke might win that matchup, but barely. Henderson we might win. Duke loses, badly, at every other matchup, and especially on bench rotation minutes.

If Duke keeps it within 20 at the dean dome, we should have a bonfire. We can win at CIS, but we can win any game there.

I know it is not popular. But UNC is very good next year. Deal, and move on.

Patrick Yates

Jaymf7
08-22-2007, 10:32 AM
UNC is going to be VERY good this year. Possibly better than last year. I totally agree with the DBR that while Wright had loads of potential, he did not mesh with Hans very well.


I believe UNC will be good and still present challenges for us, particularly in the post, but regardless of how Wright "meshed" with Hansblah last year, he was the turning point in both of our games. Wright killed us.

I don't have time to look up the stats, but I remember him having about 18 points per game on very efficient shooting. These included clutch points that we could not answer. We very likely would have won both of those games if he had not been on the floor (not to mention if he had been wearing a different shade of blue, which is another issue).

While UNC will mature this season, they lose two very important weapons -- an NBA talent second post scorer and a versatile NBA level athlete. I do not see anyone on their roster quickly replacing those roles (but the previously unseen post guys might surprise me).

Duke, by comparison, loses a legitimate post defender. While Josh had other skills, I think we have replaced those (and added new talents) with the incoming class. If we can find someone to defend the post (or work around it as we did in the late 2001 run), we should be better this year.

riverside6
08-22-2007, 10:37 AM
I believe UNC will be good and still present challenges for us, particularly in the post, but regardless of how Wright "meshed" with Hansblah last year, he was the turning point in both of our games. Wright killed us.

I don't have time to look up the stats, but I remember him having about 18 points per game on very efficient shooting. These included clutch points that we could not answer. We very likely would have won both of those games if he had not been on the floor (not to mention if he had been wearing a different shade of blue, which is another issue).

While UNC will mature this season, they lose two very important weapons -- an NBA talent second post scorer and a versatile NBA level athlete. I do not see anyone on their roster quickly replacing those roles (but the previously unseen post guys might surprise me).

Duke, by comparison, loses a legitimate post defender. While Josh had other skills, I think we have replaced those (and added new talents) with the incoming class. If we can find someone to defend the post (or work around it as we did in the late 2001 run), we should be better this year.
Wright at 19 pts, 9 rebs at Duke (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_Game_Box_Score_External.asp?hGame=488) and 10 pts, 5 rebs at UNC (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_Game_Box_Score_External.asp?hGame=529).

Jaymf7
08-22-2007, 03:01 PM
Wright at 19 pts, 9 rebs at Duke (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_Game_Box_Score_External.asp?hGame=488) and 10 pts, 5 rebs at UNC (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_Game_Box_Score_External.asp?hGame=529).

That looks right. Extremely efficient. He was 9/12 for 19 pts in 24 minutes at Duke. With McRoberts as our only solid post presence, we could not guard both Hansblah and Wright.

I thought Wright had more points at UNC, but he was 5/6 for 10 pts (plus 3 blocks). I think some of those came at the end of the game when we really needed a stop.

I think this year, with only one NBA quality big (unless the new guys are at that point already), UNC may be a considerably easier match-up for a team with at least one quality post defender. As I said above, however, I'm not sure we have that yet.

SilkyJ
08-22-2007, 07:49 PM
UNC is a talented team and the odds on favorite to win the ACC Championship. However, they have some weaknesses and I trust Coach K and Staff will exploit those weaknesses:

1. Backcourt - Lawson is awesome at times but prone to inconsistency. Ellington is inconsistent with his shot and hurt (does anyone know the details?). QT is absolutely terrible. Frasor might be the key to their backcourt performance. Is he healthy?

I'm not sure what people are talking about with ellington's shot. 37% from deep as a freshman is pretty good, and he was sort of a pure shooter out of HS. Don't know anything about the injury, but assuming that doesn't cause any problems, you can believe that ellington will be a force from deep

Bob Green
08-22-2007, 09:33 PM
I'm not sure what people are talking about with ellington's shot. 37% from deep as a freshman is pretty good, and he was sort of a pure shooter out of HS. Don't know anything about the injury, but assuming that doesn't cause any problems, you can believe that ellington will be a force from deep

You're correct. I was suprised when I went and actually looked at his numbers. My perception was that he struggled, but the facts prove he shot better than Scheyer.

Ellington: FGs 164 of 379 43%, 3PTs 66 of 178 37.1%, FTs 51 of 61 83.6%
Scheyer: FGs 113 of 284 39%, 3PTs 61 of 167 36.5%, FTs 115 of 136 84.5%

I stand corrected!

JasonEvans
08-22-2007, 10:25 PM
If you look at Carolina's talent, you see a lot more on thw wing/perimter than in the post. I think Carolina will do a lot of 4-around-1 play with just Hasbro as a traditional post player. First of all this clears plenty of space for Hasbo to operate but the other bonus is it allows Carolina to run and trap more -- which we know Roy loves.

It is not like there are a lot of teams in the ACC who will have a second big who can exploit Carolina's lack of size inside if the Heels play this way.

Unless Stephenson is a real stud, I bet you see a lot of "small ball" from Carolina this season.

-Jason "I think Carolina will make a ton of 3s this year-- whether they have to shoot a ton to get them is a key" Evans

riverside6
08-23-2007, 08:33 AM
Bob's perception may be because Ellington's (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_player_page.asp?hPlayer=297) numbers dropped when the calendar year turned to 2007. Here are his numbers by month...


Month FGPct TPPct
11/2006 51.00% 34.00%
12/2006 47.00% 54.00%
1/2007 43.00% 36.00%
2/2007 36.00% 27.00%
3/2007 38.00% 34.00%


Here are Scheyer's (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_player_page.asp?hPlayer=267) numbers...

Month FGPct TPPct
11/2006 38.30% 46.43%
12/2006 42.86% 37.04%
1/2007 39.24% 31.37%
2/2007 40.48% 34.78%
3/2007 36.00% 40.00%


Sorry for the formatting, there doesn't appear to be a good way to do tables.

riverside6
08-23-2007, 08:35 AM
JasonEvans, are you forgetting about Deon Thompson?

Their lineup will likely be...

Lawson
Ellington
Green/Ginyard/Frasor
Thompson
Hansbrough

JasonEvans
08-23-2007, 10:10 AM
JasonEvans, are you forgetting about Deon Thompson?

Their lineup will likely be...

Lawson
Ellington
Green/Ginyard/Frasor
Thompson
Hansbrough

Doh!! No, I did not forget about him. When I said "unless Stephenson is a real stud" I meant to say "unless Thompson is a real stud." My bad.

My point remains though. I think we see two of Green, Ginyard, and Frasor playing with Lawson, Ellington, and Hasbro a fair amount of the time this coming season.

We'll see.

-Jason "Roy prefers to run-- and more small guys means more running" Evans

Classof06
08-24-2007, 01:31 PM
You're correct. I was suprised when I went and actually looked at his numbers. My perception was that he struggled, but the facts prove he shot better than Scheyer.

Ellington: FGs 164 of 379 43%, 3PTs 66 of 178 37.1%, FTs 51 of 61 83.6%
Scheyer: FGs 113 of 284 39%, 3PTs 61 of 167 36.5%, FTs 115 of 136 84.5%

I stand corrected!

I still think Scheyer had the better year. He averaged a point more on 95 less shots. Scheyer also played about 10 more mpg, which you can take as a negative or a positive in terms of Scheyer. I what people expect of Ellington is a microcosm of what people expect of UNC; they assume last year's role players will blossom into the big-time players UNC is going to need besides Hansbrough and Lawson; whether you like it or not, the jury's still out.

I think UNC will be good, but to suggest they'll be better than last year is, in one word, premature. They lost two of their most athletic players, their most talented player, and their most experienced player. I agree with Jaymf7, the difference between us beating Carolina last year was Brandan Wright, especially the game in Cameron. He was who killed us. And people need to stop bringing up this Arizona game from last year when UNC beat 'Zona in Tuscon; Arizona was not that great a team last year. The only thing UNC has going for them is that the field (in the ACC and in the nation) is not as strong as last year. And that's good for them because, IMO, they're not as good as last year...

Patrick Yates
08-24-2007, 03:28 PM
I will give that UNC lost its 2 most athletic players, but certainly not the most talented players. I see the most talented as being either Lawson or Hans. Wright had the most potential, but he is still 2-3 years from fully realizing that potential. Had he stayed all 4 years he might have approached it, but all he really did this year was tantalize with what could have been possible.

As for the Arizona game, why can't it be used as evidence? Arizona wasn't great last year, but they were no worse than any middle of the pack ACC team. Indeed, they would have likely made the NCAAs in this league last year, and last year's Arizona team would likely finish top 4 in next year's ACC. I am sorry, but many of the posters here are acting as if there is absolutely ZERO proof that Thompson and Stephenson can step in next year. At worst, the Arizona game is at least circumstantial evidence that UNC will not miss a step in the post.

And yes, I, and others, are assuming that some of UNC's current players will step up and improve over the summer,even though we have no evidence this is happening. Players do so at every program in America every single year. Why is it wrong or foolish to assume that UNC's players will not improve while taking it for granted that:

Nelson will improve his shooting, ball-handling, and decision making (all accomplished while he cannot use one of his hands);

Paulus's struggles last year were completely a result of his injury and that he will be good to great this year (even though he has yet to have an injury free year with his career half over);

Martynas will pick up the D and be a solid bench player (hasn't happened yet);

Scheyer will shoot better and be a key player (looked awfully tentative during the entire second half of the season and his shooting struggled);

Zoubek will be the post we need (though he is not practicing or lifting due to injury);

LT will be able to man the post (no rumors even that this is true);

Henderson will be able to get his asthma under control (this is a very serious thing. Some Olympic swimmers have had careers effectively ended by this condition);

Singler, King, and Smith will be ready to roll from Day 1 (despite valid concerns regarding athleticism of some and depth at their respective positions for others)

This is not to say that Duke is in trouble. Indeed, I believe that Duke will be the second best team in the ACC and that we have a real chance to beat UNC at CIS (beating them at the Dome is a pipe dream next year). But, as you can see from my list above, all of which concerns regarding next year's players have been widely discussed on this board and in the media so I am not pulling them out of my rectum, we have our issues to work out. Yet, it is taken as a certainty that the players will fix all of these issues, despite any shred of proof that this is happening. Call it faith or whatever.

Why are UNC's players not afforded this same benefit of the doubt? Indeed, many of them have fewer issues to work out than our players. As for Thompson, there is proof from his international play that he is in much better shape and will be a significant contributor.

This board cannot have it both ways. We cannot assume that all of Duke's players will fix their shortcomings while none of UNC's players will do so. I am sure that all of UNC's perimeter players are working on their 3s. Lawson and Ellington will be sophs, and Roy's players usually make jumps, especially his pgs, from Fr to Soph. We know that Thompson has been in the gym, and I have to believe that Stephenson has as well. We know Tyler is a workout fiend, but I bet he has spent some time on his midrange J and passing out of double teams.

Even though they lost Wright, I think UNC will be better than last year, if not nearly as good as they would have been if Wright had returned. At least 3 of UNC's players will likely improve, if only because of experience and a summer in the gym (Lawson, Ellington, and Thompson). If injury is what slowed down Paulus, then we can say the same about Frasor.

Now, I am not saying that UNC's players will solve all their problems. That would be foolish. Neither can we assume that they will solve NONE of their problems. That would be as foolish as assuming that some returning Devils will fix all of their problems.

My favorite thing about this site (historically) was that the site took a realistic view of Duke, and college hoops in general. That was easy to do when we were head and shoulders above every other team in the ACC. We cannot abandon that now that Duke is no longer the unquestioned ruler of Tobacco Road. That sort of blind Homerism would be petulant, and the sort of thing I am more accustomed to seeing over at IC.

Patrick Yates

captmojo
08-24-2007, 04:45 PM
I can't make predictions on teams until I've seen them play once, sometimes twice, however I can very safely say that the majority of Carolina fans will once again this season, suck to high heaven.

ACCBBallFan
08-24-2007, 10:00 PM
Patrick - I read both teams' boards and actually think that UNC assertions that Deon, and Wayne in particular, have quantum improvement more so than Green/Ginyard are taken at face value, but people assume Zoubek and Lance and Greg and Jon do not improve, the opposite of what you are saying that people are euphoric on Duke's every player having improvements but ostrich kike when it comes to UNC returnees.

I actually think the juniors Green/Ginyard and Bobby Frasor if healthy do the most improving for UNC and that Deon-Alex will be good but not great jst as Lance will be.

I also think that Duke's bench is as deep and at least as strong as UNCs.

Tyler is the difference. When you factor in that Nelson/Nolan rather than Paulus will be guarding Lawson UNC has edge at PG but nowhere near the edge Heels have in the post.

So edge to UNC in the two key positions.

But Deon-Ginyard/Green-Ellington vs Singler-Nelson/Henderson- Scheyer is a wash or slight edge to Duke.

Alex-Bobby (assuming he is healthy)-QT-Graves-Cope vs Lance-McClure-Nolan-King-Marty again is pretty close with edge to Duke if freshmen live up to hype since King can be difference on Offense and Nolan can be better slasher/Defender. I supect Marty continues to be untapped potential.

Duke has no answer for Hansbrough though and would do well to gain a split.

acciconoclast
08-25-2007, 06:03 PM
Carolina should be extremely good this year, Final Four caliber. But the loss in athleticism (Terry and WRight) will hurt a bit and make them susceptible to an extremely athletic team, esp on the wing. I think this will keep them from winning it all.

People forget how young they were last year. I believe the starting lineup in the Gtown game was the youngest lineup to start an Elite 8 game since the Fab 5. And experience mixed with talent is a dangerous combination to face. If Frasor is fully recovered, that will just make them even tougher. And from everything I've read, Deon Thompson could well be on the verge of a breakout season.

Patrick Yates
08-27-2007, 12:10 PM
Iconoclast, I think you are sorta right and sorta wrong. Personally, I believe that UNC's athleticism this year is somewhat underrated. Lawson has elite quickness, and if, and I will grant that it is a HUGE, ultra gi-normous IF, Lawson will actually try on defense, then I like his athleticism a lot. Ellington, Green, and Ginyard are all very good to great athletes, but not quite elite athletes. The posts are not elite athletes, but their strenght and savvy are solid foils to merely being run-jump athletes. Overall, I think UNC is a very athletic team. Maybe not stud athletes, but their athleticism is nothing to sneeze at. If you could take Duke's players, and imbue them with the overall athlecism of UNC's players, how many here would really turn that down?

However, you are correct that UNC is susceptable to a very athletic team. How many of those are there this year? Perhaps the only team with the athleticism to really take advantage of UNC is Memphis. Personally, I will have to see Calpari field a cohesive team to believe it. As for the other elite teams, I do not think any of the other top teams (UCLA or G-town) are more athletic than UNC. So, while UNC may be suseptable to a elite level team of athletes, none of those are arround this year.

As for the full caps ACC [I love your content, but the spelling and grammer make it a little hard to follow sometimes], I have to disagree. We can hope all day that Paulus will not guard Lawson, but he has to guard someone. Who would you rather Paulus guard, Ellington, Green/Ginyard, or Lawson? Sure, when Frasor is in the game Paulus will guard him, but Lawson and Ellington will get the lion's share of the minutes at guard this year, with Frasor getting solid minutes in support of them both. I really don't see Roy playing all 3 together that much this year. Why would he play into Duke's hands by doing that when we play UNC. Given that Paulus and Nelson will start, with either Scheyer or Henderson as the third guard/forward, UNC can matchup defensively, and then some, without putting in Frasor, which would give Duke someone to hide Paulus's defensive liabilities.

Sure, Nelson/Smith could probably slow down Lawson, but Paulus has to guard someone, and Ellington would go off on Paulus. Green/Ginyard not so much, but they would have big nights (for them) against Paulus.

As for the Thompson/Stephenson rumors, they aren't rumors. One of them (can't remember which one, they always mesh in my mind) was a monster for an international team this summer. That is not an anonymous scrimmage report rumor, that is stat sheat report fact. He will be better this year, and probably significantly better, than last year. There are no fact based reports of our guys improving. The only facts regarding our players are that Paulus and Martynas spent part of the summer recovering from sugery, Nelson broke his wrist, and Zoubek broke his foot. Based on the above, it is fair to say that UNC's players improved over the summer approximately the same as Duke's players, at the very least.

As for the comparisons on quality of bench play, you have to look at history when you make those comparisons. Roy traditionally plays a deep bench, and K has not recently, be it ill or good. So while our guys may look better on paper (and that is entirely a matter of opinion) there is a pretty high likelihood that UNC's bench will perform better if only because they will play more than our bench.

The crux of my argument was not so much that Duke's players weren't improving, just that every one here should quit assuming that UNC players did not improve at all, which seemed to be kind of a prevailing opinion.

Patrick Yates

Bob Green
08-29-2007, 05:16 AM
As for the Thompson/Stephenson rumors, they aren't rumors. One of them (can't remember which one, they always mesh in my mind) was a monster for an international team this summer. That is not an anonymous scrimmage report rumor, that is stat sheet report fact...


Patrick Yates

Deon Thompson was a member of the USA U19 squad and he played exceptionally well in the tournament. I agree 100% that he will be much more productive as a Sophomore.

ACCBBallFan
08-29-2007, 01:50 PM
As for the full caps ACC [I love your content, but the spelling and grammer make it a little hard to follow sometimes], I have to disagree. We can hope all day that Paulus will not guard Lawson, but he has to guard someone. Who would you rather Paulus guard, Ellington, Green/Ginyard, or Lawson? Sure, when Frasor is in the game Paulus will guard him, but Lawson and Ellington will get the lion's share of the minutes at guard this year, with Frasor getting solid minutes in support of them both. I really don't see Roy playing all 3 together that much this year. Why would he play into Duke's hands by doing that when we play UNC. Given that Paulus and Nelson will start, with either Scheyer or Henderson as the third guard/forward, UNC can matchup defensively, and then some, without putting in Frasor, which would give Duke someone to hide Paulus's defensive liabilities.
Sure, Nelson/Smith could probably slow down Lawson, but Paulus has to guard someone, and Ellington would go off on Paulus. Green/Ginyard not so much, but they would have big nights (for them) against Paulus.

As for the Thompson/Stephenson rumors, they aren't rumors. One of them (can't remember which one, they always mesh in my mind) was a monster for an international team this summer. That is not an anonymous scrimmage report rumor, that is stat sheat report fact. He will be better this year, and probably significantly better, than last year. There are no fact based reports of our guys improving. The only facts regarding our players are that Paulus and Martynas spent part of the summer recovering from sugery, Nelson broke his wrist, and Zoubek broke his foot. Based on the above, it is fair to say that UNC's players improved over the summer approximately the same as Duke's players, at the very least.

As for the comparisons on quality of bench play, you have to look at history when you make those comparisons. Roy traditionally plays a deep bench, and K has not recently, be it ill or good. So while our guys may look better on paper (and that is entirely a matter of opinion) there is a pretty high likelihood that UNC's bench will perform better if only because they will play more than our bench.

The crux of my argument was not so much that Duke's players weren't improving, just that every one here should quit assuming that UNC players did not improve at all, which seemed to be kind of a prevailing opinion.

Patrick Yates Patrick, in answer to your qustion that I bolded above, not sure why you fear Paulus guarding Ellington or the G-Men instead of Lawson.

If you look at total points in two games last year. Nelson was assigned to Lawson and Greg/Jon had to guard Ellington/Terry, the latter being the matchup nightmare, not Ellington:

42 Tyler
36 Paulus
36 Scheyer
30 Henderson
29 Wright - gone
27 Lawson
26 Nelson
25 Terry - gone
18 Ginyard
15 Josh - gone
07 Ellington
06 Green
05 Frasor
04 Miller -gone
02 Deon
02 Lance
00 McClure
00 Stepheson
00 QT
00 Marty

107-UNC returning, plus however many more Deon/Alex and Green/Ginyard score in place of Wright/Terry. So if that's 23 more in two games, same as

130-Duke returning, plus however many more three frosh score in two games.

Ellington will most likely play better and Bobby Frasor if healed will as well.

I agree Deon will blossom this year, but not as much as Brandan Wright gave UNC on Offensive end. It remains to be seen how Deon-Alex play defense, which other than shot blocking was not Wright's forte.

Key IMO is still that Duke has no one to stop Tyler for 40 minutes. Games last year were not massacres and UNC losing Wright/Terry makes them even closer this year, assuming Duke can make up for loss of Josh across Zoubek-Singler-King, and has Nolan to give Nelson an occasional rest.