PDA

View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs. Sparty, NCAA Sweet 16 (Fri 2145 EDT, CBS) Pre/In-Game Thread



Pages : [1] 2 3

hurleyfor3
03-25-2013, 12:05 AM
Bring it on.

bbosbbos
03-25-2013, 12:07 AM
Brother, you are so quick

Durham Thunder
03-25-2013, 12:08 AM
K owns Izzo as of late. But if we play like we did against the 'Jays, say goodnight.

pfrduke
03-25-2013, 12:08 AM
So we have ~ a week to figure out how to deal with Adreian Payne. We'll need it. He's going to be a problem.

That being said, their guards are suspect and we can beat them by a lot on the perimeter. If we hold our own inside, the game should be ours. If Nix and Payne start playing volleyball on the boards, though, it could be a long night.

bbosbbos
03-25-2013, 12:09 AM
I almost felt into sleep during the game. Very similar feeling to that of 2010, boring boring. But you know I love this feeling.

OldPhiKap
03-25-2013, 12:09 AM
Brutal front end of a weekend, with two running teams in the wings.

Best gotta beat the best. Bring on the Spartans!

sporthenry
03-25-2013, 12:11 AM
So we have ~ a week to figure out how to deal with Adreian Payne. We'll need it. He's going to be a problem.

That being said, their guards are suspect and we can beat them by a lot on the perimeter. If we hold our own inside, the game should be ours. If Nix and Payne start playing volleyball on the boards, though, it could be a long night.

Nix is also a load down there. He looks like a guy who could shut down Mason. Those matchups could come down to who gets into foul trouble first. Only problem is that Kelly doesn't draw a ton of fouls.

Agree with their guards. Appling has thrown multiple games away at the end so if they keep it close, Duke should probably have the edge from that standpoint.

Bluedog
03-25-2013, 12:24 AM
Time is 9:45 pm eastern. Obviously, they'd give us the late game like usual. Louisville-Oregon tipoff at 7:15. Wichita St-LaSalle is at 10:17, but at least that's taking place in LA.

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1

Chris Randolph
03-25-2013, 12:29 AM
West and East play Thursday/Saturday. Midwest/South on Friday/Sunday. Duke at 9:45 eastern

SCMatt33
03-25-2013, 12:29 AM
Duke will have to bring it in this game in a much different way than they did in Philly. The biggest thing Duke will have to do is find a way to negate their advantage on the boards. Creighton basically abandoned the offensive glass, which helped us a lot. Michigan State will not. I can't see any way that Duke wins the rebound battle in this game (in terms of OR% and DR%) so we'll have to 1) limit the advantage as much as possible and 2) force turnovers. Michigan State has be prone to turning the ball over this year, and Duke can take advantage with the ball pressure.

Duke's also going to have to shoot jump shots better. Duke missed a lot of jump shots this weekend, and with the increased level of competition that won't fly. We can't hope for Michigan State to go 2 for 19. Along the same lines, Duke will need to get to the free throw line and shoot well. I'm sure most people didn't like the refs tonight, but I'd love to see those guys in Indy. They were consistently tight the entire game, which I think would be in Duke favor against an extremely physical Michigan State team. If Duke can turn the game into a skills competition over a Power Battle, I like our chances.

luburch
03-25-2013, 12:35 AM
Living in B1G country I've seen a lot of MSU. Appling often plays out of control, but Gary Harris is for real. He may be the best freshman in the country. I expect Sheed to be matched up with him and that should be a great matchup. As mentioned above if Duke can shut down Payne and limit Harris they should win this game.

hurleyfor3
03-25-2013, 12:36 AM
TBS just showed a partial bracket with the Dallas games on TBS. Which means we're on CBS.

arydolphin
03-25-2013, 12:48 AM
Full Sweet 16 TV times here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21940761/tv-tip-times-and-announcers-for-the-sweet-16

Duke on CBS in the late game on Friday night, Nantz and Kellogg on the call.

NashvilleDevil
03-25-2013, 12:51 AM
K owns Izzo as of late. But if we play like we did against the 'Jays, say goodnight.

Duke played amazing defense tonight. If they duplicate that against Michigan St then they will be playing in the Elite Eight.

Mike Corey
03-25-2013, 12:52 AM
izzo-K in March. College basketball fans must relish this.

MSU is very good but very flawed this season. Its size and physicality will be on display.

Time for bed. Go Duke, beat M*chigan State.

Native
03-25-2013, 12:55 AM
izzo-K in March. College basketball fans must relish this.

MSU is very good but very flawed this season. Its size and physicality will be on display.

Time for bed. Go Duke, beat M*chigan State.

This is the test. We've said all season that rebounding is an Achilles heel of ours.

All will be revealed on Friday.

Billy Dat
03-25-2013, 01:16 AM
Living in B1G country I've seen a lot of MSU. Appling often plays out of control, but Gary Harris is for real. He may be the best freshman in the country. I expect Sheed to be matched up with him and that should be a great matchup. As mentioned above if Duke can shut down Payne and limit Harris they should win this game.

COSIGN on Gary Harris. That kid is a big problem to deal with and is a projected lottery pick if he decides to bolt for the NBA. I think he's the best player on their team.

NashvilleDevil
03-25-2013, 01:45 AM
Don't know if this was mentioned but Appling apparently did something to his shoulder in Sparty's win over Memphis. I'm sure he plays since they have an extra day to recover but will be interesting to see what Sparty does if he's limited or out.

ice-9
03-25-2013, 06:30 AM
I don't think I'm a negative nancy -- I was fairly upbeat about our Creighton game (see http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?30990-MBB-Duke-Creighton-NCAA-R32-(Sun-2140-EDT-TBS)-Pre-In-Game-Thread&p=640376#post640376 for my pre-game post) and actually bet $100 on Duke, but the game against Michigan State is going to be an all-out, heavyweight slug-fest.

This is a good team. #7 on KenPom to our #5. #9 on AP to our #6. This is two equally rated teams and their confidence is sky high after demolishing Valpo and Memphis.

Michigan State goes 7 to 8 players deep:

- Adreian Payne is a McDermott light...he's the 6'10 stretch 4 who can shoot (56% on twos, 41% on threes and 84% on free throws!) and go inside.

- Think Echenique is big? The Michigan State center, Derrick Nix has 10 pounds on the guy! Along with soft hands and good feet. Unlike Creighton however, there's more to the team than just these two.

- Gary Harris is the Spartan equivalent of our Rasheed, an athletic, dynamic, freshman scoring guard who shoots 42% on threes. According to DraftExpress, Harris is Michigan State's best NBA prospect.

- They are led by Keith Appling, who IMO can be both a strength and a weakness: he's streaky and can make bad decisions but he's also their leading scorer and floor leader. He suffered a shoulder sprain from the Memphis game apparently but will play next weekend.

- The supporting cast includes Dawson, Valentine and Trice, Appling's backup. He's a good long range shooter at 39%; Dawson rebounds well; Valentine is the classic glue guy.

Michigan State is a battle tested, experienced team. Nix is a senior, Payne and Appling are juniors. Their scoring is distributed evenly: five score above 9 points a game, so it's going to be unlikely all five have bad shooting games.

Their strength is in their defense. Memphis isn't the greatest offensive team, but Michigan State absolutely shut them down. They move very well on D and swarm the opposing team's key players without giving up much on the role players -- we're going to have to be sharp in how we move the ball. They crash the boards too as most Izzo teams do, and except at PG, they're also relatively tall. KenPom rates their defense as 6th best in the country.

OK, so how do we play them?

Appling is the key player IMO in this entire equation. How well is he going to play? If he's on, we're going to have our hands full. If he makes bad decisions, we will win. So we have to put a lot of pressure on him -- force him into uncomfortable situations, dare him to play one-on-one (vs. setting up his more capable teammates), generate turnovers.

Nix is big and strong, but he's also slow and relatively low stamina -- he only plays 28 minutes a game despite being a match-up problem for most teams. And he won't be able to get back in time if the game is fast-paced, meaning more opportunities for Mason to run and catch alley hoops. Even though Nix outweighs Mason, Mason has the height advantage so hopefully the two will at worse cancel each other out in a half-court game.

Ryan, Josh and Amile has to do as good of a job on Payne as they did McDermott....single coverage I think they will.

Harris facing off against Rasheed is also going to be interesting. Harris is their most efficient perimeter scorer, but Rasheed is an excellent defender and not so bad himself on offense.

Seth will have plenty of rest and ready to score buckets, but with Michigan State's defense, he's not going to be able to win this by himself.

And so we circle back to the PG position -- Cook and Thornton vs. Appling and Trice. This is the key match-up that we have to win.

Both teams are going to play great defense and struggle to score. We are evenly matched at most positions, but Michigan State will probably out-rebound us. We just have to force enough turnovers and run whenever we can to compensate...and hope we have a decent shooting night on top of all that.

It's going to be a coin flip, but I think Duke wins a close one with an edge on offense. We have to play with fire and passion to beat a team like Michigan State.

Struggling golfer
03-25-2013, 06:50 AM
Sometimes the obvious has to said. Unless Ryan Kelly picks up his game, Duke will be leaving Indianapolis on Saturday .

His Miami game was an aberration and after that game our expectations were sky high, but I guess his long layoff, and not being in the best of basketball shape has taken a toll.

roywhite
03-25-2013, 07:05 AM
Sometimes the obvious has to said. Unless Ryan Kelly picks up his game, Duke will be leaving Indianapolis on Saturday .

His Miami game was an aberration and after that game our expectations were sky high, but I guess his long layoff, and not being in the best of basketball shape has taken a toll.

My theory, no proof but I've seen similar observations elsewhere, is that Ryan Kelly was under the weather physically for the first weekend. Not the foot, just some kind of flu/cold thing that hindered him. It's not the type of thing that Coach K talks about, so we may not know for sure.

At any rate, I expect Ryan to be back in good form for the game vs Sparty. Which would be very good news, and important to Duke's success.

ns7
03-25-2013, 07:32 AM
MSU is a great rebounding team, both on offense and defense. Their OR is similar to Maryland and NC State. Their DR is similar to Maryland and Georgia Tech. We need to grab their misses and punish them in transition for being aggressive on the offensive glass. Cook, Curry, Sulaimon, and Thornton will be key here.

Troublemaker
03-25-2013, 07:53 AM
Sometimes the obvious has to said. Unless Ryan Kelly picks up his game, Duke will be leaving Indianapolis on Saturday .

His Miami game was an aberration and after that game our expectations were sky high, but I guess his long layoff, and not being in the best of basketball shape has taken a toll.

Actually, to be more precise/accurate, it's Ryan's shooting that needs to pick up. His overall game was fine against Creighton. He lead the defensive effort that held McDermott to 4-for-16 shooting (and the energy expended probably took a toll), and he did a good job manufacturing a couple of buckets with his passing from the high-post, playing a little two-man game with Curry.

But yes, his shots need to start going in.

subzero02
03-25-2013, 09:21 AM
Ryan's shot selection was very good as well... Another week of practice and he might regain some of his shooting touch( there is really only one direction to go after last night)

jipops
03-25-2013, 09:22 AM
Sometimes the obvious has to said. Unless Ryan Kelly picks up his game, Duke will be leaving Indianapolis on Saturday .

His Miami game was an aberration and after that game our expectations were sky high, but I guess his long layoff, and not being in the best of basketball shape has taken a toll.

I wouldn't say Miami was an aberration. He did have 18 against VTech. I think Ryan is simply mired in a shooting slump. His defense was terrific last night despite the ticky-tack foul calling, so his conditioning I'm less concerned about.

OldPhiKap
03-25-2013, 09:27 AM
I wouldn't say Miami was an aberration. He did have 18 against VTech. I think Ryan is simply mired in a shooting slump. His defense was terrific last night despite the ticky-tack foul calling, so his conditioning I'm less concerned about.

Ryan got called for a touch foul within the first minute, and played a large part of the first half with two fouls. Played very good D against CU's best player and the focus of their offense. Made some nifty passes, too.

I would say he played well under adverse conditions. And we needed that for the win.

The shots will fall, maybe we can run some things for him at the foul line or low post so he can see the ball go through the hoop. When Reggie Miller is saying it's important, the cat knows that of which he speaks.

roywhite
03-25-2013, 09:34 AM
Ryan got called for a touch foul within the first minute, and played a large part of the first half with two fouls. Played very good D against CU's best player and the focus of their offense. Made some nifty passes, too.

I would say he played well under adverse conditions. And we needed that for the win.

The shots will fall, maybe we can run some things for him at the foul line or low post so he can see the ball go through the hoop. When Reggie Miller is saying it's important, the cat knows that of which he speaks.

Are you by some chance saying that Reggie Miller was the more perceptive, relevant analyst of the two who were on our telecast last night? :)

As I've seen noted elsewhere, Elmore is incredibly annoying with his comments about officiating and Duke in general, but it is satisfying to see him reduced to silence and grudging respect when Duke pulls away for the win.

subzero02
03-25-2013, 09:40 AM
Nix is also a load down there. He looks like a guy who could shut down Mason. Those matchups could come down to who gets into foul trouble first. Only problem is that Kelly doesn't draw a ton of fouls.

Agree with their guards. Appling has thrown multiple games away at the end so if they keep it close, Duke should probably have the edge from that standpoint.

But he does draw defenders away from the basket if his shot is falling...

moonpie23
03-25-2013, 09:47 AM
didn't scheyer and singler have scoring slumps going into the baylor game?

BlueDster
03-25-2013, 09:54 AM
My theory, no proof but I've seen similar observations elsewhere, is that Ryan Kelly was under the weather physically for the first weekend. Not the foot, just some kind of flu/cold thing that hindered him. It's not the type of thing that Coach K talks about, so we may not know for sure.

At any rate, I expect Ryan to be back in good form for the game vs Sparty. Which would be very good news, and important to Duke's success.

To corroborate your baseless theory ( ;) ), when the broadcast highlighted Coach Collins, he was coughing and seemed a little sick. Could be something going around the team.

CDu
03-25-2013, 09:57 AM
- Adreian Payne is a McDermott light...he's the 6'10 stretch 4 who can shoot (56% on twos, 41% on threes and 84% on free throws!) and go inside.

Well, that's the first time I think I've ever heard a Payne-McDermott comparison. Honestly, I don't see many similarities at all. Payne has worked VERY hard to improve as a shooter from both the free throw line and the perimeter (he was atrocious as a freshman, but has been very efficient this year), but he's definitely more athlete than shooter. I'd compare Payne more to a Kenny Kadji than a McDermott. And really he's more Mason Plumlee with a set shot. MSU certainly doesn't run the offense through Payne the way Creighton does through McDermott, and Payne isn't nearly the ballhandler that McDermott is so he has a harder time creating his shot. His scoring is a bit more of an afterthought when the defense helps on other players (Appling, Harris, Nix) rather than a go-to player.

MSU is an interesting team. Their starting 5 is very big, with Nix (6'10", 290), Payne (6'10", 240), Dawson (6'6", 230), Harris (6'4", 205), and Appling (6'1", 190). But they get much smaller off the bench, with Trice (6'0", 170) and Valentine (6'5", 220) being the only two guys getting more than 10mpg off the bench. Costello is their third big, but he plays sparingly and MSU frequently will go with Dawson or Valentine at PF.

Containing Harris and Dawson (two very athletic, big wings) will be critical. Harris can score from anywhere, and Dawson is a beast on the offensive glass. We need to keep track of Dawson and Payne when a shot goes up, and play tough defense on Harris. Sulaimon, Curry, and Thornton will have their hands full with Dawson and Harris.

Where MSU is weak is at PG. Appling is sloppy, and Trice is just not very good. We need to pressure them and force them into mistakes. MSU turns it over more than they assist, so we need to exploit that. This would be a good time for Cook to find his early season magic again.

On the inside, Nix is bigger than Echenique, but he's slower, less athletic, and not as talented. That's a matchup that Mason needs to win. He has to play smarter than he did last night, and I think he will.

moonpie23
03-25-2013, 09:59 AM
i'm not going to say that the officiating was bad, but it WAS overly-tight......especially compared to other games being called this past weekend.

OldPhiKap
03-25-2013, 10:02 AM
didn't scheyer and singler have scoring slumps going into the baylor game?

Jon was in a wicked funk for about three weeks +/-. Started against Md; had to hit a miracle shot against GT in the ACCT; and still kinda struggled until they started falling again. But he never quit playing defense.

moonpie teaches a good lesson.

Monmouth77
03-25-2013, 10:05 AM
I wouldn't say Miami was an aberration. He did have 18 against VTech. I think Ryan is simply mired in a shooting slump. His defense was terrific last night despite the ticky-tack foul calling, so his conditioning I'm less concerned about.

I spent last weekend in Detroit watching all the games at the Palace. Just a few observations about State:

-- This is not Izzo's best team, but it is plenty tough, and the usual Spartan reputation for hard-nosed defense, physical play and rebounding prowess applies to these guys.

--Nix is tough in the paint. He is built like Reggie Johnson (Miami), but is bouncier, more mobile, more skilled and stronger. He has crafty instincts around the basket, but really needs to be in the low post to do anything-- he will not hit a hook shot from 10 feet out or blow past his man on a drive. Mason has about an inch on him, and maybe more in effective height, given Mason's reach. He will need to be careful guarding him, but could have some success with just getting a hand in his face. For a guy as huge as Nix, he runs the floor OK, but he is not in amazing shape and got tired against Memphis. We could wear him out if we push the pace.


--Payne is an explosive athlete and the biggest matchup problem for us. He shoots pretty well from outside but prefers to put the ball on the floor and had a couple of dunks on drives from the wing that brought the house down against Memphis. If Kelly defends him, he needs to stay home and play him to shoot. Given his success guarding McDermott last night, this could be a matchup where Amile sees some spot duty.

--Michigan State's guards are good, but ours are better. Their best shooter and ballhandler is Gary Harris, who -- as another poster mentioned upthread -- is the real deal. He can penetrate and dish and shoots a high percentage from 3. But he had lots of wide open looks against both Valpo and Memphis that I don't expect him to get from Duke.

--I actually thought Trice was their next best guard, and was not impressed at all with Appling, who seems like a space cadet out there, and does not have the explosive quickness or court awareness that Harris does. He played sparingly against Memphis, and I heard one of the telecasters say last night that he may be hurt.

-- Dawson will also see big minutes. He looks like the type of tall wing that could hurt Duke, but I was not impressed with him at all. He appeared lost on defense and played out of position a few times leading to Memphis scores on drives straight to the rim.

--Overall I would say that Duke is a better shooting team, a better conditioned team, and that we would be well served to push the pace a bit. Michigan State's ballhandling (besides Harris) is just OK, so we may even be able to turn them over.

--If this game turns into a half court grind, and Mason and Kelly get in foul trouble again, Nix and Payne could eat us alive inside. But if we hit our outside shots and get some points in transition, Sparty may not be able to keep up. They scored 70 against Memphis in a 68 possession game, and missed a lot of open looks. And they put up only 65 against an absolutely terrible Valpo team (worst team at the Palace and worst 14 seed by far) that had no hope of winning or defending the Spartans in the paint.

--Rasheed could be important again, and could possibly outquick Dawson or exploit a size advantage if State guards him with Trice or Appling (depending on lineups).

jipops
03-25-2013, 10:07 AM
Where MSU is weak is at PG. Appling is sloppy, and Trice is just not very good. We need to pressure them and force them into mistakes. MSU turns it over more than they assist, so we need to exploit that. This would be a good time for Cook to find his early season magic again.


I think Cook is actually getting there. He had 11 assists vs. Albany and 6 last night in a very low percentage shooting game. Hopefully we'll get the most of Thornton in Friday night's matchup exploiting the Spartan's weakness you have mentioned.

Ben1029
03-25-2013, 10:15 AM
Costello is their third big, but he plays sparingly and MSU frequently will go with Dawson or Valentine at PF.

Containing Harris and Dawson (two very athletic, big wings) will be critical. Harris can score from anywhere, and Dawson is a beast on the offensive glass. We need to keep track of Dawson and Payne when a shot goes up, and play tough defense on Harris. Sulaimon, Curry, and Thornton will have their hands full with Dawson and Harris.

Where MSU is weak is at PG. Appling is sloppy, and Trice is just not very good. We need to pressure them and force them into mistakes. MSU turns it over more than they assist, so we need to exploit that. This would be a good time for Cook to find his early season magic again.



Valentine gets 0 minutes at PF. Dawson will get 4-5 minutes at PF and all his others at SF. Valentine will play PG, SG, and SF. Costello is limited offensively but serviceable on D.

OldPhiKap
03-25-2013, 10:21 AM
I spent last weekend in Detroit watching all the games at the Palace. Just a few observations about State:

-- This is not Izzo's best team, but it is plenty tough, and the usual Spartan reputation for hard-nosed defense, physical play and rebounding prowess applies to these guys.

--Nix is tough in the paint. He is built like Reggie Johnson (Miami), but is bouncier, more mobile, more skilled and stronger. He has crafty instincts around the basket, but really needs to be in the low post to do anything-- he will not hit a hook shot from 10 feet out or blow past his man on a drive. Mason has about an inch on him, and maybe more in effective height, given Mason's reach. He will need to be careful guarding him, but could have some success with just getting a hand in his face. For a guy as huge as Nix, he runs the floor OK, but he is not in amazing shape and got tired against Memphis. We could wear him out if we push the pace.


--Payne is an explosive athlete and the biggest matchup problem for us. He shoots pretty well from outside but prefers to put the ball on the floor and had a couple of dunks on drives from the wing that brought the house down against Memphis. If Kelly defends him, he needs to stay home and play him to shoot. Given his success guarding McDermott last night, this could be a matchup where Amile sees some spot duty.

--Michigan State's guards are good, but ours are better. Their best shooter and ballhandler is Gary Harris, who -- as another poster mentioned upthread -- is the real deal. He can penetrate and dish and shoots a high percentage from 3. But he had lots of wide open looks against both Valpo and Memphis that I don't expect him to get from Duke.

--I actually thought Trice was their next best guard, and was not impressed at all with Appling, who seems like a space cadet out there, and does not have the explosive quickness or court awareness that Harris does. He played sparingly against Memphis, and I heard one of the telecasters say last night that he may be hurt.

-- Dawson will also see big minutes. He looks like the type of tall wing that could hurt Duke, but I was not impressed with him at all. He appeared lost on defense and played out of position a few times leading to Memphis scores on drives straight to the rim.

--Overall I would say that Duke is a better shooting team, a better conditioned team, and that we would be well served to push the pace a bit. Michigan State's ballhandling (besides Harris) is just OK, so we may even be able to turn them over.

--If this game turns into a half court grind, and Mason and Kelly get in foul trouble again, Nix and Payne could eat us alive inside. But if we hit our outside shots and get some points in transition, Sparty may not be able to keep up. They scored 70 against Memphis in a 68 possession game, and missed a lot of open looks. And they put up only 65 against an absolutely terrible Valpo team (worst team at the Palace and worst 14 seed by far) that had no hope of winning or defending the Spartans in the paint.

--Rasheed could be important again, and could possibly outquick Dawson or exploit a size advantage if State guards him with Trice or Appling (depending on lineups).

Good break-down. I would expect that Josh is going to get some time on the inside to try to body up and give Mason a breather, and Amile certainly gained some minutes with his great game last night. I could see both of them getting more time than usual, particularly in the first half.

nmduke2001
03-25-2013, 10:41 AM
Not sure where to put this, but CBS posted who will be calling the games. We get Nance and Kellogg in the late game.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21940761/tv-tip-times-and-announcers-for-the-sweet-16

BlueDevilBrowns
03-25-2013, 10:47 AM
Let's not forget, too, that Duke has actually played only 3 games in over 2 weeks time, so rust may have been evident from our shooters this weekend in Philly. I think now with these 2 "Primer" games under out belt, we'll look much smoother offensively this Friday.

As with all MSU-Duke games, the team that imposes it's will is the one that will win.

Offensively- if we pass effectively(meaning putting the ball in positions where spot-up shooters can catch and shoot and Bigs can finish without dribbling) and don't turn the ball over, we'll be good as I believe our efficient shooting % will return.

Defensively- force MSU to continue to turn the ball over(I believe they had 17 TO's against Valpo and 18 TO's against Memphis), we'll make them pay with transition buckets and prevent MSU from getting the ball inside. Valpo simply wasn't talented enough to use the TO's to their advantage and Memphis had the overall talent, but not the coaching, to exploit those TO's into points.

Overall, I like our matchup if Curry, Suliamon, and Cook bring their "A" games.

freedevil
03-25-2013, 11:11 AM
As with all MSU-Duke games, the team that imposes it's will is the one that will win.

Let us commence the imposition.

Kedsy
03-25-2013, 11:17 AM
Sometimes the obvious has to said. Unless Ryan Kelly picks up his game, Duke will be leaving Indianapolis on Saturday .

His Miami game was an aberration and after that game our expectations were sky high, but I guess his long layoff, and not being in the best of basketball shape has taken a toll.

The Miami game may or may not have been an aberration. Ryan is a very streaky shooter, and he goes from "off" to "on" (and "on" to "off") with little to no warning. It's possible his cold streak could continue against Michigan State, but if he hits a shot or two early, it's also possible he could have a huge game. There's no way to tell which will happen until it happens.

CDu
03-25-2013, 11:27 AM
Valentine gets 0 minutes at PF. Dawson will get 4-5 minutes at PF and all his others at SF. Valentine will play PG, SG, and SF. Costello is limited offensively but serviceable on D.

Payne and Nix average about 53mpg for the season. In their last 5 games, they've combined to average 60mpg. During that time, Costello and Gauna have totaled just 42 minutes (8.4mpg). That means that for about 12mpg MSU went with either Dawson or Valentine at PF. Those numbers hold over the course of the season, too, where Payne, Nix, Gauna, and Costello average a combined 65mpg.

I included Valentine because, aside from Dawson, he's the only of their wings with the size to defend inside. It may be that Dawson is the primary option there, but MSU spends quite a good portion of the game with an undersized, athletic PF. That's especially true if the game pace picks up and/or one of their bigs is in foul trouble.

Ben1029
03-25-2013, 11:38 AM
Payne and Nix average about 53mpg for the season. In their last 5 games, they've combined to average 60mpg. During that time, Costello and Gauna have totaled just 42 minutes (8.4mpg). That means that for about 12mpg MSU went with either Dawson or Valentine at PF. Those numbers hold over the course of the season, too, where Payne, Nix, Gauna, and Costello average a combined 65mpg.

I included Valentine because, aside from Dawson, he's the only of their wings with the size to defend inside. It may be that Dawson is the primary option there, but MSU spends quite a good portion of the game with an undersized, athletic PF. That's especially true if the game pace picks up and/or one of their bigs is in foul trouble.

The reason for that is for the first few months of the season Izzo went with a small lineup to start games and split the center minutes between Nix and Payne. When they were going small, Valentine was playing SF. If I remember correctly, it was in January that they moved Dawson to SF. Part of the reason for the switch was that over winter break, they had Brandon Kearney, a wing transfer. This took away some of the perimeter depth, so they moved Dawson to SF. Costello's minutes have increased as the season has progressed.

nocilla
03-25-2013, 11:38 AM
The Miami game may or may not have been an aberration. Ryan is a very streaky shooter, and he goes from "off" to "on" (and "on" to "off") with little to no warning. It's possible his cold streak could continue against Michigan State, but if he hits a shot or two early, it's also possible he could have a huge game. There's no way to tell which will happen until it happens.

Wasn't there a stretch just last year where Ryan hit like 24 shots in a row over 3 games? It would be nice to see that Ryan back for this weekend. With his continued good play on defense of course.

DukeAlumBS
03-25-2013, 11:38 AM
My friends, I feel more comfortable with MSU, rather than Creighton to be honest. I have seen we have their number the past 2-3 years. Last year in NY MSU, and a win against Michigan by 15. Our early Big Ten wins this year, is indicative of what a great team we have. I think Kelly will be fine. I am happy he has been hitting his 3 point shot. The first week after his injury, and when in the pool. This will come, on top of all else, I feel he is as conditioned as any other player on the team. He is not going to be an issue. He will come through. The Creighton game is done, and we won. I was impressed with his defense, and what else he did on the court. The team responded!

I see us scooting past MSU, and hitting the elite eight. And then some.
Go Duke
Jimmy

CDu
03-25-2013, 11:45 AM
The reason for that is for the first few months of the season Izzo went with a small lineup to start games and split the center minutes between Nix and Payne. When they were going small, Valentine was playing SF. If I remember correctly, it was in January that they moved Dawson to SF. Part of the reason for the switch was that over winter break, they had Brandon Kearney, a wing transfer. This took away some of the perimeter depth, so they moved Dawson to SF. Costello's minutes have increased as the season has progressed.

Except that Costello's minutes haven't really increased that much. As I mentioned, over the last 5 games, Costello is averaging just 6.8mpg, and MSU is going with a small lineup for about 12mpg. Basically, Costello took Gauna's minutes. Everything else has remained somewhat consistent.

Now, yes, 12mpg is down a bit from earlier in the season, but it's not down that much. MSU is still spending a significant portion of the game (over 25% of the game) with 4 guard/wings on the floor.

Mike Corey
03-25-2013, 12:00 PM
For fun, recall that Duke and M*chigan State squared off in November 2011 for Coach K's 903rd victory.

We held Payne to 2 points in that matchup. But Appling got us for 22.

Curry, Kelly and Andre Dawkins led the way for us. MSU held Mason to 7.

CDu
03-25-2013, 12:10 PM
For fun, recall that Duke and M*chigan State squared off in November 2011 for Coach K's 903rd victory.

We held Payne to 2 points in that matchup. But Appling got us for 22.

Curry, Kelly and Andre Dawkins led the way for us. MSU held Mason to 7.

To be fair, MSU and Duke look much different than they did in Nov 2011. For MSU, they lost Green, Wood, and Thornton, but they gained Harris and both Nix and Payne have improved substantially from last year. Conversely, we lost Miles, Rivers, and Dawkins, but added Sulaimon and Curry, Cook, and Mason have gotten much better.

Hopefully the result is similar to that result, but the teams are not that similar.

Kedsy
03-25-2013, 12:16 PM
Actually, to be more precise/accurate, it's Ryan's shooting that needs to pick up. His overall game was fine against Creighton. He lead the defensive effort that held McDermott to 4-for-16 shooting (and the energy expended probably took a toll), and he did a good job manufacturing a couple of buckets with his passing from the high-post, playing a little two-man game with Curry.

But yes, his shots need to start going in.

Ryan said much the same thing in the locker room after the game, that defending McDermitt took a lot out of him on offense.

And in the post-game press conference, Coach K said, "I love that we won and [Ryan] scored one point.... He knows he played a heck of a game."


To corroborate your baseless theory ( ;) ), when the broadcast highlighted Coach Collins, he was coughing and seemed a little sick. Could be something going around the team.

I didn't take anyone's temperature or anything, but there didn't appear to be any coughing or runny noses in the locker room. If anybody has a cold, it's very minor.


Wasn't there a stretch just last year where Ryan hit like 24 shots in a row over 3 games? It would be nice to see that Ryan back for this weekend. With his continued good play on defense of course.

It was two seasons ago and I believe it was closer to 16 shots in a row, but your point is valid. He was very streaky last year, too (he didn't shoot as much as he does this season but he had good three-point-shooting streaks of 9 for 14, 6 for 9, and 8 for 15, and bad streaks of 1 for 6, 3 for 9 and 5 for 21). And this season his three point shooting looks like this:

First six games: 4 for 17
Next nine games: 21 for 31 (28 for 40 if you include Miami, which was Ryan's next game after this nine game stretch)
Most recent five games: 2 for 17

Ben1029
03-25-2013, 12:20 PM
Except that Costello's minutes haven't really increased that much. As I mentioned, over the last 5 games, Costello is averaging just 6.8mpg, and MSU is going with a small lineup for about 12mpg. Basically, Costello took Gauna's minutes. Everything else has remained somewhat consistent.

Now, yes, 12mpg is down a bit from earlier in the season, but it's not down that much. MSU is still spending a significant portion of the game (over 25% of the game) with 4 guard/wings on the floor.

Ok, I may have underestimated Dawson's minutes at PF, but Valentine does not play PF. Valentine plays PG, SG, and some SF. He is 6-5 and rebounds well and has great court vision to pass in transition.

MChambers
03-25-2013, 12:27 PM
It was two seasons ago and I believe it was closer to 16 shots in a row, but your point is valid. He was very streaky last year, too (he didn't shoot as much as he does this season but he had good three-point-shooting streaks of 9 for 14, 6 for 9, and 8 for 15, and bad streaks of 1 for 6, 3 for 9 and 5 for 21). And this season his three point shooting looks like this:

First six games: 4 for 17
Next nine games: 21 for 31 (28 for 40 if you include Miami, which was Ryan's next game after this nine game stretch)
Most recent five games: 2 for 17
I'm fine with him shooting at a 70% pace the rest of the way.

Durham Thunder
03-25-2013, 01:33 PM
Although we played defense well overall, it was our defense that could've killed us.

Some of them WERE ticky-tack, but having Hairston, Kelly, AND Plumlee with 4 fouls mid-way in the 2nd is a death sentence, which we happened to avoid.

Lucky for us Creighton wasn't a battle tested team that's played the likes of Aaron Craft, Kenny Kadji, and PJ Hairston. We gotta hit shots against MSU to take the pressure off our aggressive defense.

UrinalCake
03-25-2013, 01:59 PM
It was two seasons ago and I believe it was closer to 16 shots in a row, but your point is valid. He was very streaky last year, too....

I was thinking it was 20-something shots, but maybe that includes free throws. It spanned two and a half games, which further supports your point that that year he shot less and was less of a focal point of the offense.

Ryan does so many other things both offensively and defensively that he still provides tremendous value even when he's not shooting well. I totally disagree with the comments (not from you Kedsy) that Ryan had a bad game and that he has to do more for us to beat MSU. We can beat MSU without Ryan scoring. And th guys in the locker room know how valuable he is.

nocilla
03-25-2013, 02:27 PM
It was two seasons ago and I believe it was closer to 16 shots in a row, but your point is valid. He was very streaky last year, too...


It was 18. Video was made in January of 2011.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebaa0jSdIkM&list=PLBXs6r30Az_OwG8aONZvNyXXvLRfImJTb&index=12

CR9
03-25-2013, 05:07 PM
I said this in the Creighton thread but please, for the love of god, do not lose this game. With a workplace full of Sparty fans, I will never hear the end of it.

licc85
03-25-2013, 07:12 PM
I don't see Mason being a huge factor in this game. Echenique made it really difficult for him to back down in the paint, and Nix will be even stronger. Mason's post up game is a pretty big part of our offense, and he's going to have to work really hard to get good position before receiving the ball, or else he's just not going to be able to get anything going. Therefore, I see Nix/Mason as a wash, and it's going to come down in large part to our perimeter scoring.

Rebounding and defense are always important, but this team's true strength is our shooting. If we are hot, nobody in the country can stop us. If we aren't hitting from deep, our defense and rebounding is going to have to be good enough to win the game. We are an A shooting team, a B defensive team, and a C rebounding team. This year, I think we have JUST enough defense to put us over the top in most games when most of our shooters are cold, but if 2 of our guys are going from deep, I could even see this being a pretty comfortable win. There's been a quite a few games, maybe like 8 or 9 games this year where either Seth, Ryan, or even Rasheed will just go nuts from deep (The @UNC game most recently, when Seth dropped 18 in the first half), and we just coast to the win. If the 3's aren't falling, it will be much closer with the edge going to MSU. But honestly, I really don't see all 4 of our main perimeter shooters being cold.

Seth has about 1 off game every 4 games, so I'm expecting him to be his usual unstoppable self next game. Rasheed is currently riding a 2 game hot streak, and that's pretty good, considering he tends to go up and down in stretches of about 5 games as far as shooting is concerned. Plus, he tries MUCH harder on D when the shots are falling. Cook has been doing much better getting back to being playmaker Quinn as opposed to Greg Paulus Quinn, so that's good. He'll have a horrible night shooting every once in awhile, but it never seems to detract too much from his pretty good level of play in other areas, such as distributing, defense, and surprisingly, rebounding. Ryan is pretty hard to predict lately. He's either on fire and draining everything he looks at or is basically nonexistent on offense. Lets hope with another week to put this injury behind him, and working on his stamina, he's going come out guns blazing and just annihilate MSU's defense, because I don't think they can stop him if he's playing well. Then I guess Tyler is our 5th shooter, and he somehow always manages to knock a couple down, even flying sideways off the backboard.

if we hit 35% from deep, we will this game. it will be a slow, physical, grind it out affair, and I fully expect us to be outrebounded. But if we take care of the ball like we have most of the year and can hit a few 3s, I like our chances to go to the elite 8.

jipops
03-25-2013, 08:31 PM
It will be won in the backcourt. Unless Mason gets in serious foul trouble I think it's the guards that will decide this game. And I think ours are a little better. The matchups in the frontcourt, Mason/Nix and Kelly/Payne should mostly cancel each other out. Mich St has been had a hard time taking care of the ball lately which will hopefully mean more possessions for us.

juise
03-25-2013, 08:33 PM
For fun, recall that Duke and M*chigan State squared off in November 2011 for Coach K's 903rd victory.

Thanks for the reminder. I will wear my "903 and Kounting" shirt on Friday, just as I did last night. :D

weezie
03-25-2013, 11:07 PM
Nix is also a load down there. He looks like a guy who could shut down Mason.


I dunno. I think Nix is a bit of a headcase. I was alarmed at his little tantrum whipping his towel at Appling in the huddle during their last game. Izzo tried to laugh it off at the post presser but I thought it looked stupid. That's not how you motivate your teammates.

duke09hms
03-25-2013, 11:37 PM
I don't see Mason being a huge factor in this game. Echenique made it really difficult for him to back down in the paint, and Nix will be even stronger. Mason's post up game is a pretty big part of our offense, and he's going to have to work really hard to get good position before receiving the ball, or else he's just not going to be able to get anything going. Therefore, I see Nix/Mason as a wash, and it's going to come down in large part to our perimeter scoring.


Nix is bigger and stronger than Echenique (kinda makes me miss having a 260 lb. bruiser like Zoubek), but he's very slow. Maybe we could exploit that advantage by having Mason sprint down the court every possession and set up deep in the post before Nix gets there, giving our offense the low post option.

I wonder if a fast-paced game would favor us or not. Pros: Our guards are less turnover-prone, and Mason can use his speed and agility advantage to counteract Nix's size and strength. Cons: MSU has some athletic SFs that could run the floor and be a mismatch for us, and running Ryan up and down the court probably won't help with his shot.

ns7
03-25-2013, 11:56 PM
I wonder if a fast-paced game would favor us or not. Pros: Our guards are less turnover-prone, and Mason can use his speed and agility advantage to counteract Nix's size and strength. Cons: MSU has some athletic SFs that could run the floor and be a mismatch for us, and running Ryan up and down the court probably won't help with his shot.

You raise an interesting point. MSU is one of the slowest paced teams in the country and Duke is one the faster paced teams. It's certainly one way to neutralize their prowess on the offensive glass--by punishing them in transition when they don't get a rebound. A coworker told me that Memphis had success in a fast game before MSU slowed them down. I was not able to watch that game but this is intriguing if true. I'm sure the coaching staff is all over this.

ice-9
03-26-2013, 03:23 AM
Nix is bigger and stronger than Echenique (kinda makes me miss having a 260 lb. bruiser like Zoubek), but he's very slow. Maybe we could exploit that advantage by having Mason sprint down the court every possession and set up deep in the post before Nix gets there, giving our offense the low post option.

I wonder if a fast-paced game would favor us or not. Pros: Our guards are less turnover-prone, and Mason can use his speed and agility advantage to counteract Nix's size and strength. Cons: MSU has some athletic SFs that could run the floor and be a mismatch for us, and running Ryan up and down the court probably won't help with his shot.

Michigan State can run too, they did a few times with Memphis who is a fast-paced team and beat them at it. That said I still think we should run selectively, e.g. on long rebounds and turnovers. One or two shooters on the side with Mason trailblazing down the middle. Ryan jogs down in case we turn it over and also to conserve energy. Michigan State is an excellent half court defensive team so fast breaks will be one of the easiest ways for us to score.

superdave
03-26-2013, 07:54 AM
Michigan State can run too, they did a few times with Memphis who is a fast-paced team and beat them at it. That said I still think we should run selectively, e.g. on long rebounds and turnovers. One or two shooters on the side with Mason trailblazing down the middle. Ryan jogs down in case we turn it over and also to conserve energy. Michigan State is an excellent half court defensive team so fast breaks will be one of the easiest ways for us to score.

We also need to look to score on the secondary break. If Mason works hard he can get a few buckets on Nix before Nix is fully in position to defend. We can also get some 3s for trailers, or a ball fake and drive before the help can react. They have some big bodies inside and some larger guards. The key will be for Duke to be a step ahead of them, and that comes with willfully pushing the pace and attacking on offense.

NashvilleDevil
03-26-2013, 08:19 AM
We also need to look to score on the secondary break. If Mason works hard he can get a few buckets on Nix before Nix is fully in position to defend. We can also get some 3s for trailers, or a ball fake and drive before the help can react. They have some big bodies inside and some larger guards. The key will be for Duke to be a step ahead of them, and that comes with willfully pushing the pace and attacking on offense.

I think the key to doing this is getting rebounds. I think they can push the tempo as well but limiting MSU's offensive rebounding is the biggest key of the game. I do think we see the guys shooting well on Friday night.

Monmouth77
03-26-2013, 08:47 AM
One thing I'd like to see in this game is for Mason to more quickly recognize situations where he should pass back out of the post. If he gets the ball low enough in the post, he can out quick Nix for a score. But he won't be able to back him down, and his back to the basket dribbling will result in a strip or a blocked shot.

With the 35 second shot clock, we can always re-post Mason if he gets pushed off the low blocks the first time. The longer he holds it in the paint, the lower our chances of scoring against this team. It should be a quick drop step around Nix, a quick hook or a pass out to the perimeter.

Saratoga2
03-26-2013, 09:17 AM
My theory, no proof but I've seen similar observations elsewhere, is that Ryan Kelly was under the weather physically for the first weekend. Not the foot, just some kind of flu/cold thing that hindered him. It's not the type of thing that Coach K talks about, so we may not know for sure.

At any rate, I expect Ryan to be back in good form for the game vs Sparty. Which would be very good news, and important to Duke's success.

His form seems to be off in the last few games. I don't think that has to do with his physical conditioning. It is a flaw that crept in and that he needs to deal with. He has this week to get his form in order, lets hope that happens. Shooting in a new arena won't help.

Saratoga2
03-26-2013, 09:24 AM
Ok, I may have underestimated Dawson's minutes at PF, but Valentine does not play PF. Valentine plays PG, SG, and some SF. He is 6-5 and rebounds well and has great court vision to pass in transition.

Amile may be our best matchup against Valentine.

Saratoga2
03-26-2013, 09:31 AM
I don't see Mason being a huge factor in this game. Echenique made it really difficult for him to back down in the paint, and Nix will be even stronger. Mason's post up game is a pretty big part of our offense, and he's going to have to work really hard to get good position before receiving the ball, or else he's just not going to be able to get anything going. Therefore, I see Nix/Mason as a wash, and it's going to come down in large part to our perimeter scoring.

Rebounding and defense are always important, but this team's true strength is our shooting. If we are hot, nobody in the country can stop us. If we aren't hitting from deep, our defense and rebounding is going to have to be good enough to win the game. We are an A shooting team, a B defensive team, and a C rebounding team. This year, I think we have JUST enough defense to put us over the top in most games when most of our shooters are cold, but if 2 of our guys are going from deep, I could even see this being a pretty comfortable win. There's been a quite a few games, maybe like 8 or 9 games this year where either Seth, Ryan, or even Rasheed will just go nuts from deep (The @UNC game most recently, when Seth dropped 18 in the first half), and we just coast to the win. If the 3's aren't falling, it will be much closer with the edge going to MSU. But honestly, I really don't see all 4 of our main perimeter shooters being cold.

Seth has about 1 off game every 4 games, so I'm expecting him to be his usual unstoppable self next game. Rasheed is currently riding a 2 game hot streak, and that's pretty good, considering he tends to go up and down in stretches of about 5 games as far as shooting is concerned. Plus, he tries MUCH harder on D when the shots are falling. Cook has been doing much better getting back to being playmaker Quinn as opposed to Greg Paulus Quinn, so that's good. He'll have a horrible night shooting every once in awhile, but it never seems to detract too much from his pretty good level of play in other areas, such as distributing, defense, and surprisingly, rebounding. Ryan is pretty hard to predict lately. He's either on fire and draining everything he looks at or is basically nonexistent on offense. Lets hope with another week to put this injury behind him, and working on his stamina, he's going come out guns blazing and just annihilate MSU's defense, because I don't think they can stop him if he's playing well. Then I guess Tyler is our 5th shooter, and he somehow always manages to knock a couple down, even flying sideways off the backboard.

if we hit 35% from deep, we will this game. it will be a slow, physical, grind it out affair, and I fully expect us to be outrebounded. But if we take care of the ball like we have most of the year and can hit a few 3s, I like our chances to go to the elite 8.

The quality of offensive games that Seth,Rasheed and Quinn have are more to do with the quality of defensse played against them, it is less a random event. MSU is good defensively but in my opinion not great at defending at the guard position. Our guys need to beat their guys at the guard position. Thaats a doable scenarion for us and if it happens, we have a good chance in this game.

CDu
03-26-2013, 09:35 AM
His form seems to be off in the last few games. I don't think that has to do with his physical conditioning. It is a flaw that crept in and that he needs to deal with. He has this week to get his form in order, lets hope that happens. Shooting in a new arena won't help.

Kelly's form is not textbook to begin with, so I'm not sure we can really assess his form (or slight deviations from his normal form) from the television set. We almost certainly would not be able to detect a slight tweak that causes his shots to just barely miss (usually short or long - not side to side).

It could be that his form is off, not that we could tell. It could also be that his shots simply have been missing due to either too much energy early, fatigued legs, rushing/forcing shots, nerves, or just natural random variation (he's a very streaky shooter).

roywhite
03-26-2013, 09:41 AM
Kelly's form is not textbook to begin with, so I'm not sure we can really assess his form (or slight deviations from his normal form) from the television set. We almost certainly would not be able to detect a slight tweak that causes his shots to just barely miss (usually short or long - not side to side).

It could be that his form is off, not that we could tell. It could also be that his shots simply have been missing due to either too much energy early, fatigued legs, rushing/forcing shots, nerves, or just natural random variation (he's a very streaky shooter).

yeah, agree, though FWIW, I'd say his shot looks flat lately, not enough arc.

My theory, for which I have virtually no proof other than my own observation, was that Ryan was a bit under-the-weather physically this past weekend, a cold/flu type thing.

At any rate, I expect that he will find his shot for this game and be a significant scorer, say 15 points or more. His presence on the floor is a big help offensively with spacing and his good passing ability, and of course even more of a plus when his shots are going down.

Bluedog
03-26-2013, 09:59 AM
Amile may be our best matchup against Valentine.

Maybe...but no way is Amile going to be playing the 3. It's just not going to happen. We're not going to see a Jefferson-Kelly-Plumlee lineup anytime soon. So, unless you want to see Sulaimon/Thornton on their PF....

nocilla
03-26-2013, 10:46 AM
Maybe...but no way is Amile going to be playing the 3. It's just not going to happen. We're not going to see a Jefferson-Kelly-Plumlee lineup anytime soon. So, unless you want to see Sulaimon/Thornton on their PF....

I know Albany is not Mich St and the matchups are totally different, but we did see 3 bigs in the game against Albany. Around the 16 minute mark of the first half we had Kelly, Hairston, and Jefferson on the floor. Then at 15:30 Mason subbed back in for Hairston. This lineup of Mason, Kelly, and Jefferson played until the 14:30 point when Sulaimon subbed in for Jefferson. It was only 1:30 minutes and I don't expect to see it against Mich St but I wouldn't say it is impossible. Anyone know what the purpose of the big lineup was against Albany? We were +1 point wise in that 1:30 but we didn't see it again in the game, so maybe K was just trying something different and didn't like it.

Boxscore. (https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf9/1736485.pdf?ATCLID=206868690&SPSID=22724&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200)

TexHawk
03-26-2013, 10:55 AM
Sparty and Izzo are an enigma to me. Everyone falls in love with them come tournament time, and that's mostly for a good reason, but these particular players do not have a great tournament resume. Two seasons ago, they started the year in the Top 5, only to fall and almost miss the tourney altogether. They scrapped together an OT win in the Big10 tournament to sneak in as a 10 seed, but they lost to UCLA in the first round. Last season, they did land a #1 seed, but barely showed up against Louisville in the Sweet 16 and were beaten pretty badly. (Nix did get a cup of coffee with the Final 4 team that lost to Butler, but he was a freshman that didn't play much at all.)

And for all of those who complain about the physicality in CBB, MSU is one of the biggest offenders (imo). They came back against Iowa in the Big10 tournament by beating the crap out of them every time down the floor. They seem to subscribe to the "you can't call all of them" philosophy, so contact on the perimeter goes unnoticed by the officials.

They are an enigma to me because I even though I say all of that, I *do* enjoy watching them play. They don't give an inch, and they play their hearts out. I also loved the story CBS did on Payne and his friendship with the little girl who is battling cancer. Article here (http://www.freep.com/article/20130326/SPORTS07/303260136/Michigan-State-spartans-Adreian-Payne-inspired-cancer-battle-7-year-old-friend), I can't find the video posted anywhere.

Bluedog
03-26-2013, 11:04 AM
I know Albany is not Mich St and the matchups are totally different, but we did see 3 bigs in the game against Albany. Around the 16 minute mark of the first half we had Kelly, Hairston, and Jefferson on the floor. Then at 15:30 Mason subbed back in for Hairston. This lineup of Mason, Kelly, and Jefferson played until the 14:30 point when Sulaimon subbed in for Jefferson. It was only 1:30 minutes and I don't expect to see it against Mich St but I wouldn't say it is impossible. Anyone know what the purpose of the big lineup was against Albany? We were +1 point wise in that 1:30 but we didn't see it again in the game, so maybe K was just trying something different and didn't like it.

Boxscore. (https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf9/1736485.pdf?ATCLID=206868690&SPSID=22724&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200)

Thanks for the note - I must have missed that. Tried to give you pitchfork points, but alas, I must spread the love! I agree that while we may have seen it against Albany, it's unlikely Coach K will put that lineup out there against MSU, but I guess you never know.

CDu
03-26-2013, 11:07 AM
Sparty and Izzo are an enigma to me. Everyone falls in love with them come tournament time, and that's mostly for a good reason, but these particular players do not have a great tournament resume. Two seasons ago, they started the year in the Top 5, only to fall and almost miss the tourney altogether. They scrapped together an OT win in the Big10 tournament to sneak in as a 10 seed, but they lost to UCLA in the first round. Last season, they did land a #1 seed, but barely showed up against Louisville in the Sweet 16 and were beaten pretty badly. (Nix did get a cup of coffee with the Final 4 team that lost to Butler, but he was a freshman that didn't play much at all.)

And for all of those who complain about the physicality in CBB, MSU is one of the biggest offenders (imo). They came back against Iowa in the Big10 tournament by beating the crap out of them every time down the floor. They seem to subscribe to the "you can't call all of them" philosophy, so contact on the perimeter goes unnoticed by the officials.

They are an enigma to me because I even though I say all of that, I *do* enjoy watching them play. They don't give an inch, and they play their hearts out. I also loved the story CBS did on Payne and his friendship with the little girl who is battling cancer. Article here (http://www.freep.com/article/20130326/SPORTS07/303260136/Michigan-State-spartans-Adreian-Payne-inspired-cancer-battle-7-year-old-friend), I can't find the video posted anywhere.

I would tend to agree with all of this, with one exception. MSU is most definitely a scrappy team that, in the past few years, has lacked on top-end talent. As you note, they were an early-out in 2011, and they were a borderline #1 seed last year that got ousted (and looked bad in doing so) in the Sweet-16 against Louisville.

That being said, this year's team is notably different than last year's team. Payne is a much improved player, Nix has developed into a good post player this year, and they've added their best player (and arguably one of the most talented players left in the tourney) in Harris. So while they remain scrappy and excessively physical, they now have an offensive threat that they haven't had in past years.

What they still lack that they also lacked the past few years is capable PG play. In 2011, Lucas was a shell of his former (pre-injury) self as a PG. In 2012, they didn't really have a PG. And this year, they have the same lack of options there. This has resulted in a turnover-prone team without a clear identity on offense. That makes it tough.

Billy Dat
03-26-2013, 11:08 AM
Rebounding and defense are always important, but this team's true strength is our shooting. If we are hot, nobody in the country can stop us. If we aren't hitting from deep, our defense and rebounding is going to have to be good enough to win the game. We are an A shooting team, a B defensive team, and a C rebounding team. This year, I think we have JUST enough defense to put us over the top in most games when most of our shooters are cold, but if 2 of our guys are going from deep, I could even see this being a pretty comfortable win. There's been a quite a few games, maybe like 8 or 9 games this year where either Seth, Ryan, or even Rasheed will just go nuts from deep (The @UNC game most recently, when Seth dropped 18 in the first half), and we just coast to the win. If the 3's aren't falling, it will be much closer with the edge going to MSU. But honestly, I really don't see all 4 of our main perimeter shooters being cold.

if we hit 35% from deep, we will this game. it will be a slow, physical, grind it out affair, and I fully expect us to be outrebounded. But if we take care of the ball like we have most of the year and can hit a few 3s, I like our chances to go to the elite 8.

This is pretty much the way I see it in that we have to shoot well. I am actually surprised at how the national conversation seems to favor MSU yet Vegas favors Duke. I think we are a very tough match-up for MSU if things go as licc85 describes. We need shots to fall, which I know is a cliche, and I think the Nix/Mason match-up will really determine the style of the game. Can Nix guard Mason when he puts the ball on the floor? Which can get the other into foul trouble? Looking at the Ken Pom numbers, we are kind of negative images of each other (Duke 5th rated O, 23rd rated D - MSU 21st o and 6th D), but I just feel like we cause more problems for them then they cause for us. I think, in the national media's mind, Izzo has replaced K as the King of March - the narrative is that he is ok with taking his losses in the regular season but always has his teams playing their best in the NCAAs - which is accurate, to a point, but it doesn't put them over the top by any measure.

I'm not saying we're going to win easy, but I like our history against Izzo teams and I am not afraid of the match-up. It will be a matter of who can impose their style on the other, and if they drag us into a slog it out paint-heavy rock fight, it'll be tougher then if we can space, slash, kick and convert. We need to speed them up, and I wonder whose cage Tyler will be assigned to rattle - Appling's or Harris's?

bigfan
03-26-2013, 11:38 AM
Somewhat off topic. This game is in Lucas Oil Stadium. I attended the 2010 NC in Lucas Oil Stadium. While it was great to be there when Duke won the NC, it was very difficult to see the game, even though we weren't very high up (seats on the side of the court). I just went to the Philly game, and it was great. Got the tickets through Iron Duke, and even though I was very high up, it was much easier to see the game. Will the Michigan State game have the same type of arrangement?

CDu
03-26-2013, 11:56 AM
I dunno. I think Nix is a bit of a headcase. I was alarmed at his little tantrum whipping his towel at Appling in the huddle during their last game. Izzo tried to laugh it off at the post presser but I thought it looked stupid. That's not how you motivate your teammates.

To be fair, Appling was actively showing him up as the team went to the bench. Definitely seemed to be a heat of the moment thing with both players, not a one-sided thing.

Bluedog
03-26-2013, 12:00 PM
Somewhat off topic. This game is in Lucas Oil Stadium. I attended the 2010 NC in Lucas Oil Stadium. While it was great to be there when Duke won the NC, it was very difficult to see the game, even though we weren't very high up (seats on the side of the court). I just went to the Philly game, and it was great. Got the tickets through Iron Duke, and even though I was very high up, it was much easier to see the game. Will the Michigan State game have the same type of arrangement?

No, they're supposedly arranging the court in the opposite direction (long way in the football endzone basically) and selling only half the stadium unlike they did for the 2010 Final Four. (That's at least what it shows on the NCAA ticketmaster website.) Don't know how good the various seats are, but the "close" seats I'd think should be much closer with this setup.

CDu
03-26-2013, 12:00 PM
Nix is bigger and stronger than Echenique (kinda makes me miss having a 260 lb. bruiser like Zoubek), but he's very slow. Maybe we could exploit that advantage by having Mason sprint down the court every possession and set up deep in the post before Nix gets there, giving our offense the low post option.

I wonder if a fast-paced game would favor us or not. Pros: Our guards are less turnover-prone, and Mason can use his speed and agility advantage to counteract Nix's size and strength. Cons: MSU has some athletic SFs that could run the floor and be a mismatch for us, and running Ryan up and down the court probably won't help with his shot.

I don't think it's in our best interest to aggressively push the tempo (at least no more than we normally do). MSU is more athletic at the PG through PF spots (especially when they go small with Dawson at PF, but even when Payne is in), and MSU isn't as polished in the half-court offense. So speeding up the game might do us a disservice in allowing them easier offensive opportunities.

I think the key to the game will be our shooting, our ability to force turnovers, and our ability to rebound defensively. If we do at least 2 of those 3 things well, we'll win. If we don't, it'll be a tough night.

ArtVandelay
03-26-2013, 12:00 PM
I don't see Mason being a huge factor in this game. Echenique made it really difficult for him to back down in the paint, and Nix will be even stronger. Mason's post up game is a pretty big part of our offense, and he's going to have to work really hard to get good position before receiving the ball, or else he's just not going to be able to get anything going. Therefore, I see Nix/Mason as a wash, and it's going to come down in large part to our perimeter scoring.

I agree with the sentiment that our backcourt needs to outplay theirs in order to win, but I'm not so willing to concede the Nix/Mason match-up. Mason is the better player. He can and should outplay him, and if he doesn't, I think our chances of winning go down, given all of the other factors that favor MSU: the tough Payne match-up, their rebounding advantage, the difficulty containing Harris, etc.

I also agree with other posters that Mason needs to take advantage of his quickness edge on Nix. In the half-court, he won't be able to muscle Nix around, so he needs to use his footwork and make Nix move. I think he can do this. He also needs to aggressively run the floor and try to beat Nix down for easy transition baskets. This is another thing Mason is very good at. Finally, Mason needs to not pick up cheap fouls, as he almost certainly will get a few trying to contain Nix's, um, girth in low post.

Does anyone know how well they shoot 3's? I wonder whether it would make sense to have someone help Mason/Ryan rather than leave them alone trying to guard Nix/Payne.

MChambers
03-26-2013, 12:33 PM
I agree with the sentiment that our backcourt needs to outplay theirs in order to win, but I'm not so willing to concede the Nix/Mason match-up. Mason is the better player. He can and should outplay him, and if he doesn't, I think our chances of winning go down, given all of the other factors that favor MSU: the tough Payne match-up, their rebounding advantage, the difficulty containing Harris, etc.

I also agree with other posters that Mason needs to take advantage of his quickness edge on Nix. In the half-court, he won't be able to muscle Nix around, so he needs to use his footwork and make Nix move. I think he can do this. He also needs to aggressively run the floor and try to beat Nix down for easy transition baskets. This is another thing Mason is very good at. Finally, Mason needs to not pick up cheap fouls, as he almost certainly will get a few trying to contain Nix's, um, girth in low post.

Does anyone know how well they shoot 3's? I wonder whether it would make sense to have someone help Mason/Ryan rather than leave them alone trying to guard Nix/Payne.
Overall, MSU doesn't shoot 3s particularly well. Harris, Payne, and Trice are pretty good at it, however, all shooting 39% or higher. Appling is only 32%. Dawson apparently hasn't made a 3 and Valentine is at 28%, so you are on to something here. As I recall, Duke shot pretty well in Lucas Oil Field against WVa, but not against Butler.

CDu
03-26-2013, 12:34 PM
I agree with the sentiment that our backcourt needs to outplay theirs in order to win, but I'm not so willing to concede the Nix/Mason match-up. Mason is the better player. He can and should outplay him, and if he doesn't, I think our chances of winning go down, given all of the other factors that favor MSU: the tough Payne match-up, their rebounding advantage, the difficulty containing Harris, etc.

I also agree with other posters that Mason needs to take advantage of his quickness edge on Nix. In the half-court, he won't be able to muscle Nix around, so he needs to use his footwork and make Nix move. I think he can do this. He also needs to aggressively run the floor and try to beat Nix down for easy transition baskets. This is another thing Mason is very good at. Finally, Mason needs to not pick up cheap fouls, as he almost certainly will get a few trying to contain Nix's, um, girth in low post.

I see the Mason-Nix matchup as nearly identical to the Mason-Echenique matchup. But Nix is a bit heavier and less mobile than Echenique. I'd say that Echenique is the better player of the two. If Mason tries to power his way against Nix, the results will probably be similar to the Creighton game (which was basically a draw between Echenique and Mason). But if Mason learns from that game and uses his quickness/speed edge (even in the half court), then the skill difference will shine through.


Does anyone know how well they shoot 3's? I wonder whether it would make sense to have someone help Mason/Ryan rather than leave them alone trying to guard Nix/Payne.

Trice and Harris are VERY good perimeter shooters. Appling is very streaky: capable of big games from deep and also capable of laying an egg out there. Aside from them, Payne is a very capable 3pt shooter if left open. Teams that double Nix in the post can be punished by forgetting about Payne's set shot.

All in all, MSU is an okay 3pt shooting team. But they are nothing like Creighton (few teams are) in terms of shooting. Where they really make their mark is on the glass. Payne, Nix, Dawson, Valentine, and Harris are all very capable offensive rebounders. So while MSU may not shoot it great from deep, they are dangerous even when they aren't shooting well.

CDu
03-26-2013, 12:37 PM
As I recall, Duke shot pretty well in Lucas Oil Field against WVa, but not against Butler.

Sort of a moot point though, as none of the guys who took perimeter shots in that Final Four are playing this weekend (Kelly and Plumlee played a combined 12 minutes in the Final Four, and Kelly didn't take a shot).

rifraf
03-26-2013, 12:57 PM
This game is going to be won in the locker room at halftime. Both coaches are excellent, both teams are very strong and have counters for each other. Being the first game of the weekend, you know that both teams are going to be very well scouted and prepared for. I think it's going to come down to which coach makes the best adjustments at halftime, and which teams are able to respond to those adjustments.

ArtVandelay
03-26-2013, 01:18 PM
Trice and Harris are VERY good perimeter shooters. Appling is very streaky: capable of big games from deep and also capable of laying an egg out there. Aside from them, Payne is a very capable 3pt shooter if left open. Teams that double Nix in the post can be punished by forgetting about Payne's set shot.

All in all, MSU is an okay 3pt shooting team. But they are nothing like Creighton (few teams are) in terms of shooting. Where they really make their mark is on the glass. Payne, Nix, Dawson, Valentine, and Harris are all very capable offensive rebounders. So while MSU may not shoot it great from deep, they are dangerous even when they aren't shooting well.

So you're saying either they make their 3s or they miss their threes, rebound them, and score anyway? Man, they sound unstoppable.

CDu
03-26-2013, 01:20 PM
So you're saying either they make their 3s or they miss their threes, rebound them, and score anyway? Man, they sound unstoppable.

I'm saying that they are very capable of rebounding their missed threes, and that's what they do best on offense. They certainly aren't unstoppable (#21 in offensive efficiency).

We are a much better 3pt shooting team and we protect the ball better than they do. They are a better rebounding team and a more physical defensive team.

ice-9
03-26-2013, 02:02 PM
I agree with the sentiment that our backcourt needs to outplay theirs in order to win, but I'm not so willing to concede the Nix/Mason match-up. Mason is the better player. He can and should outplay him, and if he doesn't, I think our chances of winning go down, given all of the other factors that favor MSU: the tough Payne match-up, their rebounding advantage, the difficulty containing Harris, etc.

I also agree with other posters that Mason needs to take advantage of his quickness edge on Nix. In the half-court, he won't be able to muscle Nix around, so he needs to use his footwork and make Nix move. I think he can do this. He also needs to aggressively run the floor and try to beat Nix down for easy transition baskets. This is another thing Mason is very good at. Finally, Mason needs to not pick up cheap fouls, as he almost certainly will get a few trying to contain Nix's, um, girth in low post.

Does anyone know how well they shoot 3's? I wonder whether it would make sense to have someone help Mason/Ryan rather than leave them alone trying to guard Nix/Payne.


One thing to keep in mind is that Nix doesn't play heavy minutes -- he only averages 27 minutes a game. He'll likely play more against us, but he's going to be gassed at times. When he's on the bench, if Mason and Ryan are on the floor we will have a significant size advantage. Payne is 6-10 so presumably he'll slide over to the 5 and Dawson at 6-6 will play the 4. While Nix is on the bench we have to be aggressive about going inside, though admittedly both Payne and Dawson are very capable defenders.

CDu
03-26-2013, 02:06 PM
One thing to keep in mind is that Nix doesn't play heavy minutes -- he only averages 27 minutes a game. He'll likely play more against us, but he's going to be gassed at times. When he's on the bench, if Mason and Ryan are on the floor we will have a significant size advantage. Payne is 6-10 so presumably he'll slide over to the 5 and Dawson at 6-6 will play the 4. While Nix is on the bench we have to be aggressive about going inside, though admittedly both Payne and Dawson are very capable defenders.

We will have a height advantage at the PF spot whenever Nix or Payne is on the bench, but I'm not sure we'll really have a size advantage. Costello (6'9", 230) is a fairly big body, and Dawson (6'6", 230) has the strength and athleticism to more than make up the height difference - especially given that Kelly isn't the most interior-oriented of PFs.

In some ways, I'm actually more concerned when Nix is out of the game, as MSU will get much more athletic. Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't work it inside when Nix is out (by forcing Payne to guard Mason, we minimize Payne's shotblocking presence a bit). But I'm not sure that Nix's absence will need to a huge uptick in opportunities in the post.

MChambers
03-26-2013, 02:18 PM
Sort of a moot point though, as none of the guys who took perimeter shots in that Final Four are playing this weekend (Kelly and Plumlee played a combined 12 minutes in the Final Four, and Kelly didn't take a shot).

I was more thinking about whether it's a good place for shooters or not. Some stadiums, especially big ones, seem to have lousy sight lines.

ArtVandelay
03-26-2013, 02:21 PM
I'm saying that they are very capable of rebounding their missed threes, and that's what they do best on offense. They certainly aren't unstoppable (#21 in offensive efficiency).

We are a much better 3pt shooting team and we protect the ball better than they do. They are a better rebounding team and a more physical defensive team.

I know, I was just kidding. It was just funny the way it read.

Sounds like the strategy needs to be to try to speed up the tempo to pressure them into turnovers and force quick/bad shots and generally prevent them from setting up their half-court sets that will let them get shots close to the bucket and/or offensive rebounds. Obviously easier said than done, particularly since we're not necessarily the most athletic team on the planet. Also, too, block people out. Not our forte.

Billy Dat
03-26-2013, 02:36 PM
Also, too, block people out. Not our forte.

Did anyone else notice that in the Creighton game we seemed to actually be aggressively boxing out? Between that and Mason suddenly contesting shots at the rim, I felt like we deliberately held that stuff back to show a new wrinkle in March. ;^)

yancem
03-26-2013, 02:46 PM
I agree with the sentiment that our backcourt needs to outplay theirs in order to win, but I'm not so willing to concede the Nix/Mason match-up. Mason is the better player. He can and should outplay him, and if he doesn't, I think our chances of winning go down, given all of the other factors that favor MSU: the tough Payne match-up, their rebounding advantage, the difficulty containing Harris, etc.

I also agree with other posters that Mason needs to take advantage of his quickness edge on Nix. In the half-court, he won't be able to muscle Nix around, so he needs to use his footwork and make Nix move. I think he can do this. He also needs to aggressively run the floor and try to beat Nix down for easy transition baskets. This is another thing Mason is very good at. Finally, Mason needs to not pick up cheap fouls, as he almost certainly will get a few trying to contain Nix's, um, girth in low post.

Does anyone know how well they shoot 3's? I wonder whether it would make sense to have someone help Mason/Ryan rather than leave them alone trying to guard Nix/Payne.

I think that it might be a good idea for Plumlee to try to post closer to the center of the court rather than outside the lower portion the lane. As we saw against Echenique, Mason can be pushed out from the block/basket. If Plumlee allows himself to get moved more toward the free throw line instead of baseline extended, he has more options to use his quickness advantage. When he is baseline extended, he can really only in one direction so Nix will be able to shade to that side. If he receives the ball at the upper corner of the lane, he can either face up and drive either direction or with his back to the basket, he can spin left or right. This may make it a little easier to help since there is less court for the shooters to pull defenders away from the basket but I think he may be able to draw more fouls also.

CDu
03-26-2013, 02:54 PM
I know, I was just kidding. It was just funny the way it read.

Sounds like the strategy needs to be to try to speed up the tempo to pressure them into turnovers and force quick/bad shots and generally prevent them from setting up their half-court sets that will let them get shots close to the bucket and/or offensive rebounds. Obviously easier said than done, particularly since we're not necessarily the most athletic team on the planet. Also, too, block people out. Not our forte.

I would not actually recommend speeding up the tempo. Instead, I'd suggest applying a bit of pressure on the perimeter in the halfcourt setting (not an all-out trap necessarily, but make it tough on their guards). Speeding up the tempo could actually play to MSU's advantage as they are the more athletic team (aside from Nix).

But I do agree that our rebounding efforts will be crucial. We need to be better at it than we have been throughout the season, because that's one of the few areas in which MSU has a decided advantage over us.

ice-9
03-26-2013, 03:04 PM
We will have a height advantage at the PF spot whenever Nix or Payne is on the bench, but I'm not sure we'll really have a size advantage. Costello (6'9", 230) is a fairly big body, and Dawson (6'6", 230) has the strength and athleticism to more than make up the height difference - especially given that Kelly isn't the most interior-oriented of PFs.

In some ways, I'm actually more concerned when Nix is out of the game, as MSU will get much more athletic. Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't work it inside when Nix is out (by forcing Payne to guard Mason, we minimize Payne's shotblocking presence a bit). But I'm not sure that Nix's absence will need to a huge uptick in opportunities in the post.

I don't think Costello will play much -- he averaged 6 minutes a game and is a big liability on offense. If he's on the floor I like our chances to increase a lead or close a gap.

Dawson is athletic but Ryan will have 5 inches on him -- I'm sure Ryan will figure out a way to turn that into an advantage.

Nix looked pretty good against Valpo and Memphis. He's the kind of player that can cause most teams headaches...he's 10 pounds heavier than Echenique! It's possible that Michigan St is better with him on the bench, but if that was really true Nix wouldn't be such a featured part of the Michigan St offense. Payne doesn't have a back to the basket game and without Nix, the Spartans will have to rely on their perimeter to make something happen on offense.

CDu
03-26-2013, 03:09 PM
I don't think Costello will play much -- he averaged 6 minutes a game and is a big liability on offense. If he's on the floor I like our chances to increase a lead or close a gap.

Dawson is athletic but Ryan will have 5 inches on him -- I'm sure Ryan will figure out a way to turn that into an advantage.

Nix looked pretty good against Valpo and Memphis. He's the kind of player that can cause most teams headaches...he's 10 pounds heavier than Echenique! It's possible that Michigan St is better with him on the bench, but if that was really true Nix wouldn't be such a featured part of the Michigan St offense. Payne doesn't have a back to the basket game and without Nix, the Spartans will have to rely on their perimeter to make something happen on offense.

I'm quite sure that Costello won't play much. Dawson will be the most-used backup at PF. And again, while Kelly is substantially taller, Dawson is substantially quicker, stronger, and more explosive athletically. Kelly has struggled when forced to play against that type of player (see Dez Wells). I don't see that as a position of advantage for Duke.

Now, when Payne is guarding Kelly, I think we have an edge there. Payne is a good athlete, but he's not a comfortable defender away from the basket. Dawson is very comfortable defending both in the paint and away from the basket.

As for Nix, he's 10 lbs heavier but slower and less athletic than Echenique. In general (i.e., against most teams), the MSU team is better with Nix on the floor. But in this particular matchup, they might not be.

NSDukeFan
03-26-2013, 03:13 PM
Did anyone else notice that in the Creighton game we seemed to actually be aggressively boxing out? Between that and Mason suddenly contesting shots at the rim, I felt like we deliberately held that stuff back to show a new wrinkle in March. ;^)

I was just laughing to myself picturing coach K telling the guys: "Ok, it's just Maryland and I want to save some things for the tournament, so Mason, I don't want you to challenge any shots inside and guys don't try too hard to box out. We'll do that in the tournament."

Billy Dat
03-26-2013, 04:07 PM
I was just laughing to myself picturing coach K telling the guys: "Ok, it's just Maryland and I want to save some things for the tournament, so Mason, I don't want you to challenge any shots inside and guys don't try too hard to box out. We'll do that in the tournament."

Indeed, NS, this is the kind of strategic deployment of resources that K gets no credit for. That West Point training is being put to good use.

geraldsneighbor
03-26-2013, 04:38 PM
I haven't posted in a while but saw some concerned of Ryan's production offensively of late. If you'll recall, Scheyer shot 1-11 in a 15-point Duke victory over Cal to advance to the Sweet 16 in 2010. This happens to shooters. Moral of the story is to find a way to advance.

Bob Green
03-26-2013, 04:39 PM
There is a ton of great armchair analysis already posted in this thread so I'm going to quote a few recent posts and add in my two cents. Of course there is no guarantee my two cents is actually worth two cents:


We also need to look to score on the secondary break. If Mason works hard he can get a few buckets on Nix before Nix is fully in position to defend. We can also get some 3s for trailers, or a ball fake and drive before the help can react.

Wow! Superdave is really Dean Smith. :D Seriously, Mason is at his best when he gets out in transition. Forcing turnovers and converting them into easy baskets is Basketball 101. Harnessing long rebounds off missed 3-pointers is another avenue to the transition game.


Our guys need to beat their guys at the guard position. Thats a doable scenario for us and if it happens, we have a good chance in this game.

Michigan State can struggle to score at times due to turnovers and their offense being out of sync. We need to press the advantage we have with perimeter players to disrupt their offensive flow. This could be the strength against weakness fulcrum, which decides the game.


And for all of those who complain about the physicality in CBB, MSU is one of the biggest offenders (imo). They came back against Iowa in the Big10 tournament by beating the crap out of them every time down the floor. They seem to subscribe to the "you can't call all of them" philosophy, so contact on the perimeter goes unnoticed by the officials.

This is my number one concern! I addressed this point in the Phase VII thread so I'll refrain from repeating myself.


...I'd suggest applying a bit of pressure on the perimeter in the halfcourt setting (not an all-out trap necessarily, but make it tough on their guards).

Okay, now I'm going to repeat myself because CDu is spot on. As I said above, we need to disrupt their offensive flow. Our guards are better than their guards and we need to press this advantage.

Tripping William
03-26-2013, 06:46 PM
Any update on Appling's status/health today?

MartyClark
03-26-2013, 06:49 PM
Greatly looking forward to this game. I think Duke wins. It's interesting that Izzo seems to be universally liked in coaching circles. I think it's tough for a big time coach to not make enemies or critics, but he seems to be well regarded by everyone.

Jumping ahead, what time does Duke play on Sunday? I hate to be looking ahead but I really will plan Sunday Easter dinner and family stuff around the game. I can't tell. Does anyone know?

1 24 90
03-26-2013, 06:59 PM
Greatly looking forward to this game. I think Duke wins. It's interesting that Izzo seems to be universally liked in coaching circles. I think it's tough for a big time coach to not make enemies or critics, but he seems to be well regarded by everyone.

Jumping ahead, what time does Duke play on Sunday? I hate to be looking ahead but I really will plan Sunday Easter dinner and family stuff around the game. I can't tell. Does anyone know?

One regional final is approx 2:30. The other is at 5. My guess is that if Duke is playing Louisville, it will be the second game at 5 even though the south region is being played in the central time zone.

dukelifer
03-26-2013, 07:34 PM
Any update on Appling's status/health today?

All indications are that he is fine and should be ready to go. He is sore but I am sure every player has some nagging issue this time of year.

Mudge
03-26-2013, 07:56 PM
I am not at all convinced by all this talk of Duke's defense being great against Creighton-- from my perspective, Creighton got lots of relatively uncontested 3-point shots-- shots they usually make at a high rate-- they just missed them-- it happens sometimes (cf.- Duke vs. Maryland, the last time)... if Creighton had made even a slightly below-average percentage of those shots, Creighton would have been right there, in a position to win that game.

Moreover, Creighton was adjudged (ahead of time) to be a superior offensive team-- but that record (and shooting percentage) was built up facing less than awesome opposition... the MVC isn't a bad league (probably better than the Atlantic Sun, Big South, or America East, for example), but it isn't ACC or Big 10 quality... I was not impressed with the offensive skills of anyone on that team, other than McDermott, and he still got 21 points on Duke-- basically, his average. So, saying that Duke's defense is back, because of that game, is a big stretch, from my perspective.

dukelifer
03-26-2013, 08:18 PM
I am not at all convinced by all this talk of Duke's defense being great against Creighton-- from my perspective, Creighton got lots of relatively uncontested 3-point shots-- shots they usually make at a high rate-- they just missed them-- it happens sometimes (cf.- Duke vs. Maryland, the last time)... if Creighton had made even a slightly below-average percentage of those shots, Creighton would have been right there, in a position to win that game.

Moreover, Creighton was adjudged (ahead of time) to be a superior offensive team-- but that record (and shooting percentage) was built up facing less than awesome opposition... the MVC isn't a bad league (probably better than the Atlantic Sun, Big South, or America East, for example), but it isn't ACC or Big 10 quality... I was not impressed with the offensive skills of anyone on that team, other than McDermott, and he still got 21 points on Duke-- basically, his average. So, saying that Duke's defense is back, because of that game, is a big stretch, from my perspective.

Duke had a bunch of shots they missed as well that they usually make. What would convince that Duke's D was actually better in this game?

Mudge
03-26-2013, 08:35 PM
Duke had a bunch of shots they missed as well that they usually make. What would convince that Duke's D was actually better in this game?

I don't think the fact that Duke missed a lot of shots that they usually make is any cause for comfort... at this point, with Kelly way off for several games in a row now, and Curry off for at least 3 halves out of the last 6 halves Duke has played, I'd be more worried by that, than consoled by that... contrastingly, I said after the ACC tournament game that I was more enthused about Sulaimon looking like he had regained his accuracy (and more importantly, his confidence to play aggressively on offense), than I was disappointed by the loss to Maryland-- and that proved true-- Duke likely would not have won those two games last weekend, if Sulaimon hadn't played offensively, like he did.

I would have been more convinced of Duke's defense, if Creighton had missed those 3-point shots because Duke had a hand in their face, contesting those shots. That would have helped-- but to be honest, after seeing Creighton, and realizing that they are extremely limited, after McDermott, there is not a lot that COULD be proven by winning that game-- short of a Syracuse-like 40+ point beatdown on a team scoring less than 40 points in the entire game.

dukelifer
03-26-2013, 09:02 PM
I don't think the fact that Duke missed a lot of shots that they usually make is any cause for comfort... at this point, with Kelly way off for several games in a row now, and Curry off for at least 3 halves out of the last 6 halves Duke has played, I'd be more worried by that, than consoled by that... contrastingly, I said after the ACC tournament game that I was more enthused about Sulaimon looking like he had regained his accuracy (and more importantly, his confidence to play aggressively on offense), than I was disappointed by the loss to Maryland-- and that proved true-- Duke likely would not have won those two games last weekend, if Sulaimon hadn't played offensively, like he did.

I would have been more convinced of Duke's defense, if Creighton had missed those 3-point shots because Duke had a hand in their face, contesting those shots. That would have helped-- but to be honest, after seeing Creighton, and realizing that they are extremely limited, after McDermott, there is not a lot that COULD be proven by winning that game-- short of a Syracuse-like 40+ point beatdown on a team scoring less than 40 points in the entire game.
Well I will take the win- limited opponent or not. Duke sped them up - took them out of their comfortable shooting spots- and they missed. Whether that was D or dumb luck- Duke is moving on. Nothing about this game will resemble the next - so we just have to see what happens

BigWayne
03-26-2013, 09:07 PM
Greatly looking forward to this game. I think Duke wins. It's interesting that Izzo seems to be universally liked in coaching circles. I think it's tough for a big time coach to not make enemies or critics, but he seems to be well regarded by everyone.

Jumping ahead, what time does Duke play on Sunday? I hate to be looking ahead but I really will plan Sunday Easter dinner and family stuff around the game. I can't tell. Does anyone know?

Your post reminded me of this game. (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=224000053) I don't think anyone on Coach K's staff is thinking like you are.

NashvilleDevil
03-26-2013, 09:11 PM
I am not at all convinced by all this talk of Duke's defense being great against Creighton-- from my perspective, Creighton got lots of relatively uncontested 3-point shots-- shots they usually make at a high rate-- they just missed them-- it happens sometimes (cf.- Duke vs. Maryland, the last time)... if Creighton had made even a slightly below-average percentage of those shots, Creighton would have been right there, in a position to win that game.

Moreover, Creighton was adjudged (ahead of time) to be a superior offensive team-- but that record (and shooting percentage) was built up facing less than awesome opposition... the MVC isn't a bad league (probably better than the Atlantic Sun, Big South, or America East, for example), but it isn't ACC or Big 10 quality... I was not impressed with the offensive skills of anyone on that team, other than McDermott, and he still got 21 points on Duke-- basically, his average. So, saying that Duke's defense is back, because of that game, is a big stretch, from my perspective.

Duke won and they did a great job limiting McDermott. He got all his points in the 2nd half from the foul line and didn't make a field goal for the last 25-30 minutes of the game. As McDermott goes Creighton goes and with Duke making it uncomfortable for him to get in his offensive flow it put more pressure on the other guys and they could not step up.

Duke could've out the game away after 10 minutes if they, as dukelifer pointed out, hit shots they normally make. Even with the shots not falling Duke controlled the game from start to finish. I think on Friday we see Curry, Kelly, Sulaimon firing on all cylinders and they take it to Michigan St early and win by 15-18 points.

Mudge
03-26-2013, 10:13 PM
Duke won and they did a great job limiting McDermott. He got all his points in the 2nd half from the foul line and didn't make a field goal for the last 25-30 minutes of the game. As McDermott goes Creighton goes and with Duke making it uncomfortable for him to get in his offensive flow it put more pressure on the other guys and they could not step up.

Duke could've out the game away after 10 minutes if they, as dukelifer pointed out, hit shots they normally make. Even with the shots not falling Duke controlled the game from start to finish. I think on Friday we see Curry, Kelly, Sulaimon firing on all cylinders and they take it to Michigan St early and win by 15-18 points.

Let's hope you're right about that... it would make me more confident about negotiating a Michigan State-Louisville gauntlet this weekend... a tough win on Friday makes Sunday just that much more difficult to pull off-- much as it was in 1986, when I felt Duke had far the better team than Louisville (and would likely have won a seven-game series with the Cardinals that year), but Louisville had much the easier semi-final in 1986, just as they likely do here.

Sluggo
03-26-2013, 10:50 PM
I think this game will be an instant classic with a close game won by Duke, of course. K vs Izzo, doesn't get any better than that. K will have them boys in top form. Other reasons we will win are: We do well when having adequate time to rest (Seth) and prepare. We do well, very well, in big games, always have. Ryan is due for a big scoring game. Rasheed keeps getting better and better. Our defense is awesome. We have so many weapons and I don't think the Spartans will keep up with our offense. Game-time won't come fast enough!

Go Duke!

DavidBenAkiva
03-26-2013, 11:28 PM
The more I think about this game, the more I think that Duke has a solid advantage against MSU. Perhaps it's my nature to always think better of Duke's chances. At any rate, the thing I've noticed from looking at MSU's and stats the few games of theirs I've seen is that they are not a very good offensive team. They average about a dozen points per game fewer than Duke does (which can mostly be attributed to pace). More importantly, they average about 2 more turnovers than assists a game. By comparison, Duke averages 15 assists to 11 turnovers a game. So let's take a look at the two teams by position.

PG
Appling is the leading scorer for MSU and leads the team with 3 and a half assists. He's a pretty good shooter and scorer, but not nearly as talented a ball handler as Cook or even Seth Curry for that matter. Tyler Thornton boasts a better assist-to-turnover ratio than does Appling. If Cook and/or Thornton can pressure Appling into turnovers and limit his shooting, Duke will be in very good shape.

SG
This is probably the most even matchup between the two teams. Gary Harris, a freshman, is a good shooter and scorer. Where there's an advantage, again, is in ball handling and distributing. His assist-to-turnover ratio is about 1:1. While a lot of people see Harris matched up against Duke's freshman Rasheed Sulaimon, I see Harris matched up against Seth Curry with Tyler Thornton getting some time on the scorer. Surprisingly, Curry and Harris have very similar numbers. Their rebounding, assist, steals, and shooting percentages are very similar. I see an advantage for Duke here, even if Harris is taller than Curry. Curry has loads more experience and is quite crafty as we all know.

SF
This is the big size advantage for MSU. Branden Dawson is a real Small Forward. Duke essentially plays a second wing guard in Rasheed Sulaimon. Dawson is bigger and possibly just as quick as Sulaimon, which could present an interesting challenge. Dawson also rebounds well. If he helps off of Sulaimon to double Plumlee in the post, Sulaimon should be prepared to knock down shots. Dawson is not a big-time scorer, but he can score and could exploit his size advantage.

PF
This, to me, is the key matchup of the game. Ryan Kelly vs. Adreian Payne should be very interesting. Payne is athletic and seems to be to be playing a lot like Kenny Kadji. He shoots it well from deep, though not as often as Kadji does, and can really attack the rim. He averages 7.5 rebounds a game. If Kelly keeps Payne out on the perimeter, though, that could open up the lane for offensive rebounds. Kelly is slightly taller than Payne but not as athletic. It should be quite the battle to see.

C
Derrick Nix is a big man. He's physically huge, but nimble on his feet. Still, he's only 6'8" or 6'9" and not a particularly great leaper. Mason Plumlee should be able to get his shot off, especially that running jump hook he has gotten down of late. Nix averages 0.1 blocks per game, by the way, even though he is always in the post. If Plumlee can stay out of foul trouble and move Nix when Duke has the ball, he should be able to take advantage. It will be an interesting matchup to say the least. If Plumlee has an off game, it could spell trouble. If he opts not to shoot much but serves as an effective distributor, the shooters better knock down the shots. Offensive rebounds might be very rare for Duke in this game.

I know MSU has are reputation for being tough. Still, it seems a lot of the national pundits have lost sight of their offensive shortcomings. I see Duke advancing if the offensive shooting is anywhere near 45% or greater in this game. I hope I'm right! Let's go Duke!

tele
03-27-2013, 12:09 AM
His form seems to be off in the last few games. I don't think that has to do with his physical conditioning. It is a flaw that crept in and that he needs to deal with. He has this week to get his form in order, lets hope that happens. Shooting in a new arena won't help.

I for one agree with your observation. I think it does have to do with his form on his shots and it has a lot to do with the streakiness of his shooting. Feel free to discount this as idle speculaiton based on limited observation but as I'm sure others have noticed Kelly's form does have some "uniqueness" to it in that his off hand is in front of the ball. You can easily see this on the tv even when seated in an armchair. The point is when you hold the ball like he does you can easily lose your release point by changing how you hold the ball between your hands. I've noticed Kelly's off hand being more in front of the ball (higher with more back of the hand visible) when his shooting is off, when his shooting is on you don't notice the off hand so high on the ball (see less back of hand). My idle speculation is that the higher he holds his off hand in front of the ball the flatter the arc and more importantly the less back spin he puts on the ball. He also has a bit of a long release at times but I dont think that is what causes the cold streaks, unless it is also somehow affecting his off hand position. I'm not sure how you'd correct for this, i'm sure there are others who would know, maybe getting the ball more onto the fingers of his shooting hand?

On the MSU game, Duke's defense against Creighton was strong, Coach K said it ws the best all year. I think that is what will get them the win, another outstanding defensive effort. Making some threes and a few hook shots would help too. Should be a great game, hope the team is peaking at the right time.

Go Duke!

cato
03-27-2013, 12:20 AM
Your post reminded me of this game. (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=224000053) I don't think anyone on Coach K's staff is thinking like you are.

Ugh. I thought I was over that loss, but reading that article made me realize that I was not.

It also reminded me why I don't like Mike Davis. He reminds me of Gary Williams without the admirable parts.

OldPhiKap
03-27-2013, 12:25 AM
Ugh. I thought I was over that loss, but reading that article made me realize that I was not.

It also reminded me why I don't like Mike Davis. He reminds me of Gary Williams without the admirable parts.

Mike Davis doesn't sweat?

Dukeface88
03-27-2013, 12:52 AM
Sparty and Izzo are an enigma to me. Everyone falls in love with them come tournament time, and that's mostly for a good reason, but these particular players do not have a great tournament resume. Two seasons ago, they started the year in the Top 5, only to fall and almost miss the tourney altogether. They scrapped together an OT win in the Big10 tournament to sneak in as a 10 seed, but they lost to UCLA in the first round. Last season, they did land a #1 seed, but barely showed up against Louisville in the Sweet 16 and were beaten pretty badly. (Nix did get a cup of coffee with the Final 4 team that lost to Butler, but he was a freshman that didn't play much at all.)

And for all of those who complain about the physicality in CBB, MSU is one of the biggest offenders (imo). They came back against Iowa in the Big10 tournament by beating the crap out of them every time down the floor. They seem to subscribe to the "you can't call all of them" philosophy, so contact on the perimeter goes unnoticed by the officials.

They are an enigma to me because I even though I say all of that, I *do* enjoy watching them play. They don't give an inch, and they play their hearts out. I also loved the story CBS did on Payne and his friendship with the little girl who is battling cancer. Article here (http://www.freep.com/article/20130326/SPORTS07/303260136/Michigan-State-spartans-Adreian-Payne-inspired-cancer-battle-7-year-old-friend), I can't find the video posted anywhere.

I found the video (or at least a video) at WaPo here (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/wp/2013/03/23/adreian-payne-has-a-special-fan-in-lacey-holsworth/).

ice-9
03-27-2013, 03:05 AM
I'm quite sure that Costello won't play much. Dawson will be the most-used backup at PF. And again, while Kelly is substantially taller, Dawson is substantially quicker, stronger, and more explosive athletically. Kelly has struggled when forced to play against that type of player (see Dez Wells). I don't see that as a position of advantage for Duke.

I didn't watch the Maryland game so I can't comment (a part of me is glad I missed the game), but that's one game and my impression was Wells was on fire. Here's a one game counterpoint: Ryan shut down Louisville's Chane Behanan, a powerful 6'6 forward to the tune of 2-11 shooting while scoring 14 points himself.

5 inches is 5 inches, and Ryan's more of a shooter anyway, meaning those extra inches will count.


As for Nix, he's 10 lbs heavier but slower and less athletic than Echenique. In general (i.e., against most teams), the MSU team is better with Nix on the floor. But in this particular matchup, they might not be.

I dunno...I think Michigan St's offence will sputter without Nix anchoring the middle and Mason had enough trouble as it was with Echenique. While Echenique *might* be a better overall player with his athleticism, Nix has a much better post game. We'll see.

All that said, I agree with you (and as I posted earlier in this thread), the key will come down to our guards pressuring theirs...taking them out of their rhythm and generating turnovers for easy baskets. The rest might just be academic.

Sluggo
03-27-2013, 08:50 AM
Here are the highlights of this morning's interview with coach Izzo on Mike and Mike in case you missed it. Izzo praised coach K for not just building a quality program at Duke, but being able to sustain it over the past 25+ years. Izzo did not think they would double team Mason even though Mason is very athletic, partially because doubling Mason meant leaving shooters like Curry open. Izzo said they are trying to cover Curry at this very moment as he is that good :) Indicated that Cook and Sulaimon have both improved greatly. When asked if their preparation's are more focused on their game or the other team, Izzo replied that he typically tries to take away what the other team wants to do. He feels they have 3 very good defenders on the perimeter. Lastly, Izzo said that his 13 year old picked Duke over MI on his bracket. :)

davekay1971
03-27-2013, 08:59 AM
I dunno...I think Michigan St's offence will sputter without Nix anchoring the middle and Mason had enough trouble as it was with Echenique. While Echenique *might* be a better overall player with his athleticism, Nix has a much better post game. We'll see.

Echenique had 9 points and 6 boards, while Mason spent much of the game having to be cautious on defense because of foul trouble. And Mason's fouls weren't, for the most part, from trying to guard Echenique. I really didn't perceive Mason to have much trouble containing Echenique.

Nix is stronger than Echenique, and that could give Mason some trouble, although he's done okay guarding stronger, less mobile centers this season. I think he'll be okay on Nix as long as he avoids the foul trouble and doesn't feel the need to resort to matador defense to keep himself in the game. A bigger question will be whether Nix's strength keeps Mason from being able to establish post position close enough to the basket to initiate his own offense.

Two other matchups I'll be looking forward to will be Kelly against Payne. Payne, as noted upthread, is similar to Kadji except with better athleticism and better ability to finish at the basket. He's almost as tall as Ryan, which could make it hard for Ryan to get clean looks at the 3. At the same time, Ryan's biggest asset in the tournament so far has been his defense, which folks who pay attention appreciate (while the national talking heads ignore while focusing only on scoring lines, per routine). Ryan can make life as hard on Payne as Payne can make it on Ryan. I expect them to cancel each other out. But if one of them clearly wins this matchup, it could be a big factor in deciding the outcome of this game.

Then there's the question of Harris. He's a pretty good scorer, so I wonder if Duke will put Sulaimon on him and have Curry guard Dawson. While Curry gives up size to Dawson, Dawson's not the scoring threat that Harris is...and Sulaimon is, not only a better perimeter defender, but healthier than Seth. I'd rather see Rasheed chasing a guy all over the half court on defense than Seth, because I think it's less likely to hamper Rasheed either on the offensive end or (God willing) on Sunday.

dukemsu
03-27-2013, 09:09 AM
Sparty and Izzo are an enigma to me. Everyone falls in love with them come tournament time, and that's mostly for a good reason, but these particular players do not have a great tournament resume. Two seasons ago, they started the year in the Top 5, only to fall and almost miss the tourney altogether. They scrapped together an OT win in the Big10 tournament to sneak in as a 10 seed, but they lost to UCLA in the first round. Last season, they did land a #1 seed, but barely showed up against Louisville in the Sweet 16 and were beaten pretty badly. (Nix did get a cup of coffee with the Final 4 team that lost to Butler, but he was a freshman that didn't play much at all.)

And for all of those who complain about the physicality in CBB, MSU is one of the biggest offenders (imo). They came back against Iowa in the Big10 tournament by beating the crap out of them every time down the floor. They seem to subscribe to the "you can't call all of them" philosophy, so contact on the perimeter goes unnoticed by the officials.

They are an enigma to me because I even though I say all of that, I *do* enjoy watching them play. They don't give an inch, and they play their hearts out. I also loved the story CBS did on Payne and his friendship with the little girl who is battling cancer. Article here (http://www.freep.com/article/20130326/SPORTS07/303260136/Michigan-State-spartans-Adreian-Payne-inspired-cancer-battle-7-year-old-friend), I can't find the video posted anywhere.

I wouldn't put much stock in what happened in 2010-11. That season, while a disaster by MSU standards, didn't have much input from the current players. Nix, Appling, and Payne were all bit players on that team. Last year, Louisville was simply a nightmare matchup for that MSU team.

I am very familiar with both teams (longtime Duke supporter and MSU alum/former Izzoner). I don't post on here as much as I used to, but figured I'd give a few thoughts on this one.

Both teams have matchup advantages over the other. MSU hasn't rebounded as well as some past teams, but they are picking it up in a big way the last 10 games on the glass. They do have turnover issues, which might be where Duke can get some easy points. They defended UM and Wisconsin very well from 3pfg, while IU got away from them somewhat. Duke will be outrebounded in this game, just a matter of to what degree.

This particular MSU team doesn't run as many of the Izzo sets. They run a lot of flare screens to get Harris (their best offensive player) open, and they run much through Nix down low. Payne is the guy Duke needs to keep under control. When Payne is on, MSU is very difficult to deal with at both ends.

I wouldn't put much stock in Nix throwing a towel at Appling. Those guys are roommates, and this sort of thing has been normal at MSU for years. The Flint guys fought all the time. This is a close team that has battled through injuries to Harris, Appling, and others to have a pretty solid, though unspectacular season. Anyone thinking there is some sort of dissension issue based on that incident is misinformed or looking for something to talk about.

I expect a close game. Who can keep their players out of foul trouble will likely be the determining factor. Both teams have capable backups, but I think it's safe to say that both teams will be best served by keeping their starters on the floor.

Valentine is a bit of a wild card. He is a Swiss-army knife kind of player, no true position, but can do a bit of everything and is tough to scout.

Should be a great game.

dukemsu

Dave Duke76
03-27-2013, 09:57 AM
Entertaining interview with Izzo - he views Duke as the school to emulate!

The funny part is when he discusses his son's March Madness bracket - he has Duke and Michigan State meeting in the Sweet 16 but the next game is blank. Tom tells his son he should fill in the winner bracket based on his head not his heart. His son picked Duke to win the game!

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=9103236

Kedsy
03-27-2013, 10:27 AM
I have a nitpick to Al Featherston's otherwise fine article on the main page: Since 2000, Michigan State has lost four first round games, not the two he reports. It's interesting that everyone pretty much agrees that the Spartans bring their highest intensity to every game, but four first round losses suggests otherwise.

Also, he called Michigan State's PF "Kenny" Payne.

dukemsu
03-27-2013, 10:57 AM
I have a nitpick to Al Featherston's otherwise fine article on the main page: Since 2000, Michigan State has lost four first round games, not the two he reports. It's interesting that everyone pretty much agrees that the Spartans bring their highest intensity to every game, but four first round losses suggests otherwise.

Also, he called Michigan State's PF "Kenny" Payne.
The years MSU lost in the first round correspond with some of their worst seeded teams. The seeds they had in those seasons were 10. 7, 6, and 10. They simply weren't great teams. Only the 2006 team (lost to George Mason) was a big upset. Not sure those losses are some indictment on the teams' intensity level. They just weren't very good for the most part. Dukemsu

tommy
03-27-2013, 12:06 PM
I have a lengthy discussion of Duke and MSU up here:

http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/03/duke-vs-michigan-state-better-lace-em-up/

Billy Dat
03-27-2013, 12:11 PM
Come on Derrick, we're trying to build up some pre-game antipathy here...

"Duke: Why Michigan State's opponent is disliked by so many"
http://www.freep.com/article/20130327/SPORTS07/303270136/1055/sports07

Closing sentences...

"Take MSU senior center Derrick Nix, who was asked Monday why so many people dislike Duke.
“I don’t know,” Nix said. “I like Duke.”

dukemsu
03-27-2013, 12:17 PM
Come on Derrick, we're trying to build up some pre-game antipathy here...

"Duke: Why Michigan State's opponent is disliked by so many"
http://www.freep.com/article/20130327/SPORTS07/303270136/1055/sports07

Closing sentences...

"Take MSU senior center Derrick Nix, who was asked Monday why so many people dislike Duke.
“I don’t know,” Nix said. “I like Duke.”
I would venture the opinion that there isn't a program nationally that respects Duke any more than Michigan State does. That comes directly from the head coach. Nix is no politician, either. If he didn't like Duke, he would probably have said so. Even the fanbases are fairly friendly, at least they were at the 2010 Final Four. Dukemsu

Billy Dat
03-27-2013, 12:23 PM
I would venture the opinion that there isn't a program nationally that respects Duke any more than Michigan State does. That comes directly from the head coach. Nix is no politician, either. If he didn't like Duke, he would probably have said so. Even the fanbases are fairly friendly, at least they were at the 2010 Final Four. Dukemsu

I'm with you, I was saying that in jest. I was thinking the same thing - that for a team we have played some high stakes games against, there is a ton of mutual respect.

Ben1029
03-27-2013, 02:38 PM
I would venture the opinion that there isn't a program nationally that respects Duke any more than Michigan State does. That comes directly from the head coach. Nix is no politician, either. If he didn't like Duke, he would probably have said so. Even the fanbases are fairly friendly, at least they were at the 2010 Final Four. Dukemsu

Nix has been know to say some pretty arrogant/inflamatory things to the media before(see below).

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/derrick-nix-believes-michigan-state-still-doesn-t-182241332--ncaab.html

GoGreenGoWhite
03-27-2013, 08:34 PM
Spartan fan here coming in peace. I enjoy when people come to our board and discuss what to look for in the other team so I thought I would stop by and go through our roster from a Spartan perspective.

First off as a team overall I really like what I see. Love this team a lot more then last year, probably my favorite talent wise since 2005 and how they are thinking right now. With no dominate team I think this is our best shot at a title since 2001. In 2005 UNC was just loaded. We have just about every element that a good team should have, but we don't come without our flaws. My opinion for each player.

6'2" Keith Appling PG (JR)- Appling is really where we can live and die. If he can make his jump shots and not turn the ball over we are golden but he tend to let a few missed shots get to him. If he starts off 0-3 you should really like you chances. He can drive the lane, shoot the three, and will be one of the best defenders on the floor. Like I said though, lock him down and make him miss and the turnovers will come. Former 5-star recruit.

6'4" Gary Harris SG (SO)- Izzo has said this is one of the best Freshmen he has ever had. Kid can defend, shoot the three, hit the mid range, is smart, just the total package. I would say lock him down and make Dawson and Appling beat you because Gary Harris is the best scorer on the team and maybe on the floor. Kid is playing lights out and will be a great NBA prospect. I have seen mock drafts putting him at the #7 spot. Former 5 star recruit.

6'6" Brandon Dawson SF (SO)- A physical beast, he is the definition of a college SF. A solid defender, but he is very streaky. He can be forced into turnovers and is very shaky from three. He will spend most of his time in the lane though and plays above the rim. Very physical. Has a bit of a mean streak and if he get emotional can really take it to the rim. Showed a ton of promise before a torn ACL last season. Started off the year slow but has been playing better of late. He is very good at jumping passing lanes and is a finisher. Force him to shoot jumpers and coax him into turning it over. Former 5 star recruit.

6'10" Adrian Payne PF (JR) - Might be our best player right now and soaring up draft boards. Will be the most athletically gifted player on the court. All sorts of 6'10", huge wing span, can jump out of the gym, and can move very well. He is an okay passer so if he gets the ball put pressure on him fast. The thing with Payne is he has been playing a lot outside of the paint and faces up quite a bit. Can drain the mid range (can't block him if you aren't right in his face) and will hit three's if open. Watch the trailing three too. Guy is a monster on the boards and putbacks. Very eager to see this matchup with Kelly. He has been playing with a purpose unlike anybody I've seen in a long time and will be tough to contain. Former 5-star recruit.

6'9" Derrick Nix C (SR) - Only senior on the team, kid has been through a lot. I don't know how Izzo has kept him on the team but man has he come a long way. Weighed 340 pounds (!!!!) when he came to State but lost a lot to come to where he is now. Has amazing feet for a big man, you will be shocked at his agility in the post. Also is a great passer. He has some great post moves but really only goes right. An average defender, if they get him too far outside the post the can take advantage of him. If Ryan Kelley gets on him at all with switches it could be a rough night for him. Former 3-star recruit.

Bench
6'0 Travis Trice PG (SO) - A very under the radar recruit, Trice has shown he can play. He played AAU with Dawson and Izzo saw him enough he offered. Trice's only other offer was Minnesota. Kid is a solid ball handler but can not create for himself. Very small kid, can't weigh over 170lbs. Very good three point shooter though, and a very confident kid. Force him to create and you can force him into turnovers. He will come in for spot duty for Appling or in set plays. 2-star recruit.

6'5" Denzel Valentine G (FR) - This kid is a mismatch nightmare. He will play PG/SG/SF. He will be the most creative passer on both teams, can rebound, steal, hit the occasional three, drive, everything. He is the jack of all trades and the master of none (except insane Chris Paul passes in traffic). At 6'5" he be very useful. Is a smaller Draymond Green. Dad is a former Spartan from the 80's, he grew up in the Lansing area. Expect him to get 10 mins or so in all of those spots. Make him get too creative or force him to make the 3 and you can neutralize him. Former 3 star.

6'9" Matt Costello F/C (FR) - Costello won't give you too much on the offensive end but he can rebound, play great defense for a freshmen, and is an all around hustle player. Will be good down the road but has a lot to learn. Make him beat you on offense and out physical him on defense. If you want to play as a freshmen as MSU you have to push people around. He does this. Very emotional player. He will get some spot duties for Nix on Plumlee.



Overall, I think the key is to not back down physically and force turnovers. If you do that you can get MSU in foul trouble and get them frustrated. Appling will be key for an MSU victory. If he is hitting shots, that will give more room for Harris too hit and Dawson more room to drive. More makes for Appling equals a less frustrated Appling and less turnovers. Add that up with a high chance we out rebound you and you are looking at a lot of baskets for MSU. To be honest I like MSU's matchup here. I am not a huge homer, for instance I hate our matchup with Louisville. So my three keys for MSU to win would be...

-Limit turnovers
-Appling must hit shots
-Watch the fouls

Good luck Friday, hope you enjoy Indy!

Chris Randolph
03-27-2013, 08:37 PM
The white raven is the X factor. He knocks down some 3's and rebounds well Duke wins. If he does not, bummer feeling come midnight

OldPhiKap
03-27-2013, 09:00 PM
Spartan fan here coming in peace. I enjoy when people come to our board and discuss what to look for in the other team so I thought I would stop by and go through our roster from a Spartan perspective.

First off as a team overall I really like what I see. Love this team a lot more then last year, probably my favorite talent wise since 2005 and how they are thinking right now. With no dominate team I think this is our best shot at a title since 2001. In 2005 UNC was just loaded. We have just about every element that a good team should have, but we don't come without our flaws. My opinion for each player.

6'2" Keith Appling PG (JR)- Appling is really where we can live and die. If he can make his jump shots and not turn the ball over we are golden but he tend to let a few missed shots get to him. If he starts off 0-3 you should really like you chances. He can drive the lane, shoot the three, and will be one of the best defenders on the floor. Like I said though, lock him down and make him miss and the turnovers will come. Former 5-star recruit.

6'4" Gary Harris SG (SO)- Izzo has said this is one of the best Freshmen he has ever had. Kid can defend, shoot the three, hit the mid range, is smart, just the total package. I would say lock him down and make Dawson and Appling beat you because Gary Harris is the best scorer on the team and maybe on the floor. Kid is playing lights out and will be a great NBA prospect. I have seen mock drafts putting him at the #7 spot. Former 5 star recruit.

6'6" Brandon Dawson SF (SO)- A physical beast, he is the definition of a college SF. A solid defender, but he is very streaky. He can be forced into turnovers and is very shaky from three. He will spend most of his time in the lane though and plays above the rim. Very physical. Has a bit of a mean streak and if he get emotional can really take it to the rim. Showed a ton of promise before a torn ACL last season. Started off the year slow but has been playing better of late. He is very good at jumping passing lanes and is a finisher. Force him to shoot jumpers and coax him into turning it over. Former 5 star recruit.

6'10" Adrian Payne PF (JR) - Might be our best player right now and soaring up draft boards. Will be the most athletically gifted player on the court. All sorts of 6'10", huge wing span, can jump out of the gym, and can move very well. He is an okay passer so if he gets the ball put pressure on him fast. The thing with Payne is he has been playing a lot outside of the paint and faces up quite a bit. Can drain the mid range (can't block him if you aren't right in his face) and will hit three's if open. Watch the trailing three too. Guy is a monster on the boards and putbacks. Very eager to see this matchup with Kelly. He has been playing with a purpose unlike anybody I've seen in a long time and will be tough to contain. Former 5-star recruit.

6'9" Derrick Nix C (SR) - Only senior on the team, kid has been through a lot. I don't know how Izzo has kept him on the team but man has he come a long way. Weighed 340 pounds (!!!!) when he came to State but lost a lot to come to where he is now. Has amazing feet for a big man, you will be shocked at his agility in the post. Also is a great passer. He has some great post moves but really only goes right. An average defender, if they get him too far outside the post the can take advantage of him. If Ryan Kelley gets on him at all with switches it could be a rough night for him. Former 3-star recruit.

Bench
6'0 Travis Trice PG (SO) - A very under the radar recruit, Trice has shown he can play. He played AAU with Dawson and Izzo saw him enough he offered. Trice's only other offer was Minnesota. Kid is a solid ball handler but can not create for himself. Very small kid, can't weigh over 170lbs. Very good three point shooter though, and a very confident kid. Force him to create and you can force him into turnovers. He will come in for spot duty for Appling or in set plays. 2-star recruit.

6'5" Denzel Valentine G (FR) - This kid is a mismatch nightmare. He will play PG/SG/SF. He will be the most creative passer on both teams, can rebound, steal, hit the occasional three, drive, everything. He is the jack of all trades and the master of none (except insane Chris Paul passes in traffic). At 6'5" he be very useful. Is a smaller Draymond Green. Dad is a former Spartan from the 80's, he grew up in the Lansing area. Expect him to get 10 mins or so in all of those spots. Make him get too creative or force him to make the 3 and you can neutralize him. Former 3 star.

6'9" Matt Costello F/C (FR) - Costello won't give you too much on the offensive end but he can rebound, play great defense for a freshmen, and is an all around hustle player. Will be good down the road but has a lot to learn. Make him beat you on offense and out physical him on defense. If you want to play as a freshmen as MSU you have to push people around. He does this. Very emotional player. He will get some spot duties for Nix on Plumlee.



Overall, I think the key is to not back down physically and force turnovers. If you do that you can get MSU in foul trouble and get them frustrated. Appling will be key for an MSU victory. If he is hitting shots, that will give more room for Harris too hit and Dawson more room to drive. More makes for Appling equals a less frustrated Appling and less turnovers. Add that up with a high chance we out rebound you and you are looking at a lot of baskets for MSU. To be honest I like MSU's matchup here. I am not a huge homer, for instance I hate our matchup with Louisville. So my three keys for MSU to win would be...

-Limit turnovers
-Appling must hit shots
-Watch the fouls

Good luck Friday, hope you enjoy Indy!

Thanks, welcome. We enjoy knowledgeable fans and, if you've lurked before, you know that there is a lot of mutual respect.

Really hated to see this draw when the brackets came out. Whoever wins our slugfest (meant in the good defensive way) needs to turn around and run with Louisville or Oregon. Hard for whichever of us survives to keep it going forward.

Should be a great game, and again appreciate the breakdown.

My biggest concern from the Duke side is rebounding. Not as big of a problem if we hit our rhythm outside or can get out and run, but in a half-court grind-fest I am concerned about keeping you off the glass. Game will be won by MSU there if the differential gets out of hand.

ice-9
03-28-2013, 04:06 AM
Echenique had 9 points and 6 boards, while Mason spent much of the game having to be cautious on defense because of foul trouble. And Mason's fouls weren't, for the most part, from trying to guard Echenique. I really didn't perceive Mason to have much trouble containing Echenique.

Oh yeah not saying Mason was abused or anything -- they were fairly even. Both shot 4-7.

But when looking at it on a relative basis, we can usually count on Mason to have a big advantage in the post; especially in single coverage. Against Creighton we didn't have that advantage with Mason scoring significantly less than his season average. (In fact Echenique was able to nearly achieve his season averages of 9.7 points and 6.6 rebounds.) True, a lot of that can be attributed to Mason's foul trouble. What it does mean bottom line though is that we had to gain the upperhand from other positions.

It remains to be seen what will happen with Nix, as I think Mason can utilize his quickness to score, but if it's played even then our other guys have to win their matchups.

ice-9
03-28-2013, 04:26 AM
P.S. Just wanted to add that, it's been such a luxury to be able to rely on Mason to generate a big matchup advantage for us -- extra points when in single coverage, assists when in double coverage. I think as a fan base we take that for granted, that we assume he can do it for us every game. We have to work so much harder as a team when that advantage is not there.

Bob Green
03-28-2013, 10:31 AM
Spartan fan here coming in peace. I enjoy when people come to our board and discuss what to look for in the other team so I thought I would stop by and go through our roster from a Spartan perspective.

Welcome to DBR and thanks for the roster report.

Reilly
03-28-2013, 10:39 AM
Handy 1-pager with stats for both teams:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/previews/2013-03-29-duke.html

wgl1228
03-28-2013, 11:49 AM
I can't remember what round it was but the build up to this game reminds me a bit of the 2010 Purdue match up. Some were claiming they were too physical for us and would win based on that but we actually out-toughed them. We are certainly not the team of 2010 but we can be tough when needed. We still will have to shoot a good percentage though.

CDu
03-28-2013, 11:51 AM
I can't remember what round it was but the build up to this game reminds me a bit of the 2010 Purdue match up. Some were claiming they were too physical for us and would win based on that but we actually out-toughed them. We are certainly not the team of 2010 but we can be tough when needed. We still will have to shoot a good percentage though.

It was the Sweet-16 in 2010 as well. The main difference is that that Purdue team was lacking its best player (Hummel), whom they lost late in the season to an ACL injury. If I recall correctly, I don't think anyone (at least not very many people) actually predicted that Purdue (without Hummel) would be able to beat us.

Lar77
03-28-2013, 11:52 AM
Spartan fan here coming in peace. I enjoy when people come to our board and discuss what to look for in the other team so I thought I would stop by and go through our roster from a Spartan perspective.

First off as a team overall I really like what I see. Love this team a lot more then last year, probably my favorite talent wise since 2005 and how they are thinking right now. With no dominate team I think this is our best shot at a title since 2001. In 2005 UNC was just loaded. We have just about every element that a good team should have, but we don't come without our flaws. My opinion for each player.

6'2" Keith Appling PG (JR)- Appling is really where we can live and die. If he can make his jump shots and not turn the ball over we are golden but he tend to let a few missed shots get to him. If he starts off 0-3 you should really like you chances. He can drive the lane, shoot the three, and will be one of the best defenders on the floor. Like I said though, lock him down and make him miss and the turnovers will come. Former 5-star recruit.

6'4" Gary Harris SG (SO)- Izzo has said this is one of the best Freshmen he has ever had. Kid can defend, shoot the three, hit the mid range, is smart, just the total package. I would say lock him down and make Dawson and Appling beat you because Gary Harris is the best scorer on the team and maybe on the floor. Kid is playing lights out and will be a great NBA prospect. I have seen mock drafts putting him at the #7 spot. Former 5 star recruit.

6'6" Brandon Dawson SF (SO)- A physical beast, he is the definition of a college SF. A solid defender, but he is very streaky. He can be forced into turnovers and is very shaky from three. He will spend most of his time in the lane though and plays above the rim. Very physical. Has a bit of a mean streak and if he get emotional can really take it to the rim. Showed a ton of promise before a torn ACL last season. Started off the year slow but has been playing better of late. He is very good at jumping passing lanes and is a finisher. Force him to shoot jumpers and coax him into turning it over. Former 5 star recruit.

6'10" Adrian Payne PF (JR) - Might be our best player right now and soaring up draft boards. Will be the most athletically gifted player on the court. All sorts of 6'10", huge wing span, can jump out of the gym, and can move very well. He is an okay passer so if he gets the ball put pressure on him fast. The thing with Payne is he has been playing a lot outside of the paint and faces up quite a bit. Can drain the mid range (can't block him if you aren't right in his face) and will hit three's if open. Watch the trailing three too. Guy is a monster on the boards and putbacks. Very eager to see this matchup with Kelly. He has been playing with a purpose unlike anybody I've seen in a long time and will be tough to contain. Former 5-star recruit.

6'9" Derrick Nix C (SR) - Only senior on the team, kid has been through a lot. I don't know how Izzo has kept him on the team but man has he come a long way. Weighed 340 pounds (!!!!) when he came to State but lost a lot to come to where he is now. Has amazing feet for a big man, you will be shocked at his agility in the post. Also is a great passer. He has some great post moves but really only goes right. An average defender, if they get him too far outside the post the can take advantage of him. If Ryan Kelley gets on him at all with switches it could be a rough night for him. Former 3-star recruit.

Bench
6'0 Travis Trice PG (SO) - A very under the radar recruit, Trice has shown he can play. He played AAU with Dawson and Izzo saw him enough he offered. Trice's only other offer was Minnesota. Kid is a solid ball handler but can not create for himself. Very small kid, can't weigh over 170lbs. Very good three point shooter though, and a very confident kid. Force him to create and you can force him into turnovers. He will come in for spot duty for Appling or in set plays. 2-star recruit.

6'5" Denzel Valentine G (FR) - This kid is a mismatch nightmare. He will play PG/SG/SF. He will be the most creative passer on both teams, can rebound, steal, hit the occasional three, drive, everything. He is the jack of all trades and the master of none (except insane Chris Paul passes in traffic). At 6'5" he be very useful. Is a smaller Draymond Green. Dad is a former Spartan from the 80's, he grew up in the Lansing area. Expect him to get 10 mins or so in all of those spots. Make him get too creative or force him to make the 3 and you can neutralize him. Former 3 star.

6'9" Matt Costello F/C (FR) - Costello won't give you too much on the offensive end but he can rebound, play great defense for a freshmen, and is an all around hustle player. Will be good down the road but has a lot to learn. Make him beat you on offense and out physical him on defense. If you want to play as a freshmen as MSU you have to push people around. He does this. Very emotional player. He will get some spot duties for Nix on Plumlee.



Overall, I think the key is to not back down physically and force turnovers. If you do that you can get MSU in foul trouble and get them frustrated. Appling will be key for an MSU victory. If he is hitting shots, that will give more room for Harris too hit and Dawson more room to drive. More makes for Appling equals a less frustrated Appling and less turnovers. Add that up with a high chance we out rebound you and you are looking at a lot of baskets for MSU. To be honest I like MSU's matchup here. I am not a huge homer, for instance I hate our matchup with Louisville. So my three keys for MSU to win would be...

-Limit turnovers
-Appling must hit shots
-Watch the fouls

Good luck Friday, hope you enjoy Indy!

Appreciate the analysis. My MSU friend has gotten me familiar with the Spartans over the years and your comments are similar to his. Appling has always been hot and cold and the team often goes how he goes. He's not a big Nix fan. His view is a hard fought game tomorrow with Duke pulling it out. Wouldn't take them with the spread so that's usually a good indicator.

Billy Dat
03-28-2013, 12:10 PM
ESPN College Hoops Writers Midwest Region Predictions:
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/82063/on-the-record-expert-predictions

Eamonn Brennan: Louisville over Michigan State
Fran Fraschilla: Louisville over Michigan State
John Gasaway: Louisville over Duke
Seth Greenberg: Louisville over Michigan State
Andy Katz: Louisville over Michigan State
Jason King: Louisville over Duke
Myron Medcalf: Louisville over Michigan State
Dana O'Neil: Louisville over Michigan State
Bruce Pearl: Louisville over Duke
Robbi Pickeral: Louisville over Duke
Dick Vitale: Louisville over Michigan State

CDu
03-28-2013, 12:14 PM
ESPN College Hoops Writers Midwest Region Predictions:
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/82063/on-the-record-expert-predictions

Eamonn Brennan: Louisville over Michigan State
Fran Fraschilla: Louisville over Michigan State
John Gasaway: Louisville over Duke
Seth Greenberg: Louisville over Michigan State
Andy Katz: Louisville over Michigan State
Jason King: Louisville over Duke
Myron Medcalf: Louisville over Michigan State
Dana O'Neil: Louisville over Michigan State
Bruce Pearl: Louisville over Duke
Robbi Pickeral: Louisville over Duke
Dick Vitale: Louisville over Michigan State

If I had to predict, I'd predict Louisville over Duke. I picked Duke over Louisville in my bracket though. And of course I'm cheering for Duke regardless.

I'm a bit surprised at how much people are leaning toward MSU over Duke. I'd predict Duke as the slight favorite in that game.

jv001
03-28-2013, 12:16 PM
If I had to predict, I'd predict Louisville over Duke. I picked Duke over Louisville in my bracket though. And of course I'm cheering for Duke regardless.

I'm a bit surprised at how much people are leaning toward MSU over Duke. I'd predict Duke as the slight favorite in that game.

Vegas agrees with you. Duke favored by 2 pts. GoDuke!

OldPhiKap
03-28-2013, 01:25 PM
Duke over the Ducks. Why not.

wilko
03-28-2013, 01:28 PM
Duke over the Ducks. Why not.

My thoughts exactly!
Duke Ducks up brackets everywhere..

NashvilleDevil
03-28-2013, 03:39 PM
ESPN College Hoops Writers Midwest Region Predictions:
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/82063/on-the-record-expert-predictions

Eamonn Brennan: Louisville over Michigan State
Fran Fraschilla: Louisville over Michigan State
John Gasaway: Louisville over Duke
Seth Greenberg: Louisville over Michigan State
Andy Katz: Louisville over Michigan State
Jason King: Louisville over Duke
Myron Medcalf: Louisville over Michigan State
Dana O'Neil: Louisville over Michigan State
Bruce Pearl: Louisville over Duke
Robbi Pickeral: Louisville over Duke
Dick Vitale: Louisville over Michigan State

How much do you think Duke not getting past the Sweet 16, other than 2010, have had on people making predictions? It's not like Michigan St has Duke's number, Izzo has only beaten Duke once and that was in 2005 of course that was in the Sweet 16 as well.

CDu
03-28-2013, 03:44 PM
How much do you think Duke not getting past the Sweet 16, other than 2010, have had on people making predictions? It's not like Michigan St has Duke's number, Izzo has only beaten Duke once and that was in 2005 of course that was in the Sweet 16 as well.

I suspect that this, along with the fact that Duke lost in the first round of the ACC tournament (for whatever that's worth), are probably the two biggest reasons that folks might see us losing. Well, that and MSU does have the potential to be a tough matchup for us.

Billy Dat
03-28-2013, 03:59 PM
How much do you think Duke not getting past the Sweet 16, other than 2010, have had on people making predictions? It's not like Michigan St has Duke's number, Izzo has only beaten Duke once and that was in 2005 of course that was in the Sweet 16 as well.


I suspect that this, along with the fact that Duke lost in the first round of the ACC tournament (for whatever that's worth), are probably the two biggest reasons that folks might see us losing. Well, that and MSU does have the potential to be a tough matchup for us.

Agree, and I'll add the following:
-The Big 10 was considered far and away the best conference in the country
-MSU made Memphis look pretty bad in the last game
-MSU throttled Michigan back in mid February
-The current narrative is that Izzo has his teams peaking for March in a way that K has not since 1986-1994
-The other current narrative is the MSU's advantage on the glass and perceived advantage in the front court will be the determining factor

And to that I'll counter:
-MSU went 0-3 in their brutal late Feb/early March gauntlet of consecutive games against Indiana, OSU and Michigan. They were close games, but they still went 0-3
-MSU lost to OSU in the Big 10 tournament semis
-MSU lost to Miami at Miami in the pre-conference

I really feel like Duke is the better team if both teams are playing their A game. If anything, the only reason I'd be picking MSU is that K's record against Izzo seems way too one-sided and at that Izzo is too good for the record to remain that way, but part of that is styles make fights and I think we are a worse match-up for them then vice versa. Part of it is that their rebounding is always touted, but that has never been a strength of our team so I concede that aspect of the game. If every game were determined on the glass, our program would be average.

I feel like Duke's beaten Izzo teams playing our A game and our B game and they've only beaten us with their A game - but that could just be Duke homerism.

subzero02
03-28-2013, 05:35 PM
Our strong guard play last game has me feeling confident about our chances versus msu... Ryan's shot is past due. We actually might lean heavily on Josh Hairston this game his bulk gives him a key advantage over Jefferson in this matchup

AGDukesky
03-28-2013, 05:46 PM
Agree, and I'll add the following:
-The Big 10 was considered far and away the best conference in the country
-MSU made Memphis look pretty bad in the last game
-MSU throttled Michigan back in mid February
-The current narrative is that Izzo has his teams peaking for March in a way that K has not since 1986-1994
-The other current narrative is the MSU's advantage on the glass and perceived advantage in the front court will be the determining factor

And to that I'll counter:
-MSU went 0-3 in their brutal late Feb/early March gauntlet of consecutive games against Indiana, OSU and Michigan. They were close games, but they still went 0-3
-MSU lost to OSU in the Big 10 tournament semis
-MSU lost to Miami at Miami in the pre-conference

I really feel like Duke is the better team if both teams are playing their A game. If anything, the only reason I'd be picking MSU is that K's record against Izzo seems way too one-sided and at that Izzo is too good for the record to remain that way, but part of that is styles make fights and I think we are a worse match-up for them then vice versa. Part of it is that their rebounding is always touted, but that has never been a strength of our team so I concede that aspect of the game. If every game were determined on the glass, our program would be average.

I feel like Duke's beaten Izzo teams playing our A game and our B game and they've only beaten us with their A game - but that could just be Duke homerism.


If Kelly had been shooting better lately I'd feel more confident. MSU is a terrible match-up in that the Spartans pound the glass and are really physical. Duke has to hit perimeter jumpers and/or find ways to score in transition to offset MSU's advantage. The good news is MSU doesn't run the smoothest offense so we could survive a mediocre shooting night if MSU doesn't get a ton of second-chance points. I'm confident MSU won't score more than 70 but I'm worried Duke will struggle to get there. Please just let us come out like the game in Chapel Hill and shoot from the perimeter like we did against VT...

Mudge
03-28-2013, 06:40 PM
Our strong guard play last game has me feeling confident about our chances versus msu... Ryan's shot is past due. We actually might lean heavily on Josh Hairston this game his bulk gives him a key advantage over Jefferson in this matchup

Oh please, let this not be the case-- I just don't think this team can play him significant minutes against a good opponent, and expect to win... I'm not sure even the Miami Heat could play him significant minutes against a good opponent, and expect to win.

Atlanta Duke
03-28-2013, 06:43 PM
Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution raves about the Midwest Regional

Here we've got Duke, which has the best coach and is the best program, and Michigan State, which might have the second-best coach and the second-best program, and also Louisville, which is no cosmic slouch in either category, and all three will be playing under one dome in an event that is but a preliminary to the Final Four. If this isn't the top-heaviest regional ever, but it is, as they say in horse racing, in the photo.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/mark-bradley/2013/mar/28/regional-s-almost-good-final-four/

Breakdown by Bradley of Blue Devils-Sparty

Should this turn into a heave-and-tug affair such as the Devils-Spartans meeting of 2005, Michigan State will win.

But this could be one time when Duke actually is undervalued.

http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/one-izzo-really-likes-dukes-chances/nW6rx/

Mudge
03-28-2013, 06:50 PM
Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution raves about the Midwest Regional

Here we've got Duke, which has the best coach and is the best program, and Michigan State, which might have the second-best coach and the second-best program, and also Louisville, which is no cosmic slouch in either category, and all three will be playing under one dome in an event that is but a preliminary to the Final Four. If this isn't the top-heaviest regional ever, but it is, as they say in horse racing, in the photo.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/mark-bradley/2013/mar/28/regional-s-almost-good-final-four/

The best coach? Why, that just can't be-- I just saw a Carolina fan saying on another forum that Collins is really the guy that does all the coaching at Duke, and (he says) that Coach K just dodders around like somebody's drunk uncle-- he says that Duke is going to fall apart when Collins leaves... this is, of course, demonstrably provable by Duke's lack of success, in the period before Collins arrived back at Duke as an assistant coach in 2000-- oh, wait... er, em, never mind...

BD80
03-28-2013, 07:18 PM
ESPN College Hoops Writers Midwest Region Predictions:
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/82063/on-the-record-expert-predictions

Eamonn Brennan: Louisville over Michigan State
Fran Fraschilla: Louisville over Michigan State
John Gasaway: Louisville over Duke
Seth Greenberg: Louisville over Michigan State
Andy Katz: Louisville over Michigan State
Jason King: Louisville over Duke
Myron Medcalf: Louisville over Michigan State
Dana O'Neil: Louisville over Michigan State
Bruce Pearl: Louisville over Duke
Robbi Pickeral: Louisville over Duke
Dick Vitale: Louisville over Michigan State

I kind of like Duke as an underdog, particularly when we have experience on our side. When analysts evaluate "match-ups" they typically focis on individuals, and overlook one of Duke's strengths: teamwork. Louisville will be a tough match-up (hopefully) as its defense reflects significant teamwork as well.

arnie
03-28-2013, 09:27 PM
Our strong guard play last game has me feeling confident about our chances versus msu... Ryan's shot is past due. We actually might lean heavily on Josh Hairston this game his bulk gives him a key advantage over Jefferson in this matchup

One of the funniest posts ever

porkpa
03-29-2013, 08:55 AM
As with most important Duke games in recent years our ability to progress will come down to our success at scoring the three. We will either live with it or die with it.

OldPhiKap
03-29-2013, 08:59 AM
Defend, rebound, push it when we can. We need Ryan to stretch the floor, too.

Game day, bring it on!

roywhite
03-29-2013, 09:03 AM
Just watched Jay Bilas and Seth Greenberg with a breakdown of the matchup. Both picked Sparty.

Duke seems to be an underdog in general among the talking heads. Will make a win even sweeter.

NashvilleDevil
03-29-2013, 09:11 AM
Just watched Jay Bilas and Seth Greenberg with a breakdown of the matchup. Both picked Sparty.

Duke seems to be an underdog in general among the talking heads. Will make a win even sweeter.

At this point, regardless of his affiliation with Duke, does it surprise anyone that Bilas picks against Duke once they get deeper in the tournament? I guarantee Bilas will pick against Duke if they continue to advance.

dukeofcalabash
03-29-2013, 09:20 AM
This region is definitely the strongest at this time. Duke will have to play two great games to move forward.

gumbomoop
03-29-2013, 09:23 AM
At this point, regardless of his affiliation with Duke, does it surprise anyone that Bilas picks against Duke once they get deeper in the tournament? I guarantee Bilas will pick against Duke if they continue to advance.

A good test of this would be Duke v. Oregon. Hope Jay is put to the test. Duke-UL would be fine, too, but not the same kind of test there.

Ichabod Drain
03-29-2013, 09:42 AM
At this point, regardless of his affiliation with Duke, does it surprise anyone that Bilas picks against Duke once they get deeper in the tournament? I guarantee Bilas will pick against Duke if they continue to advance.

I think a lot of the experts are skeptical because of the first round ACC tourny loss to Maryland. I remember before that game after we had beat Miami and throttled UNC that Jay and many others were calling Duke the best team in the country. I have to admit the Maryland game gave me some woes as well. But at this point in the tourny, it's anyones game to win.

Monmouth77
03-29-2013, 09:55 AM
A good test of this would be Duke v. Oregon. Hope Jay is put to the test. Duke-UL would be fine, too, but not the same kind of test there.

I have to respectfully disagree with the front page article's assessment that Memphis is a more talented team than Michigan State. I watched Memphis play both of its Tournament games live in Auburn Hills, and while they are super athletic, and Joe Jackson is a very nice college guard who can shoot, dish, penetrate and defend well for his tiny size, the rest of the team lacks well-developed big-time college skills.

Memphis ran St. Mary's out of the gym for a half by just using their speed in the open court, blocking shots, and penetrating against St. Mary's flat footed skinny big men. Then they started turning the ball over and making mistakes and St. Mary's caught up gradually with a chance to win on a buzzer beater from the corner.

I fully expected Michigan State to capitalize on Memphis' mistakes, and to turn them into a jump shooting team, which the Spartans did. Memphis was totally overmatched in every phase of the game besides overall athleticism.

It is definitely true, however, that the most important difference between Michigan State and Memphis is coaching. Memphis did not have a plan against Michigan State. And that went badly.

Memphis also did not have a big man who could really hang with Nix, and had no one who could match up with Payne.

The Creighton team Duke played on Sunday was far more disciplined, skilled and better coached (though less athletic) than Memphis. I would not look at Michigan State's blow-out win over Memphis in front of a highly partisan home crowd as much of a harbinger of anything.

That said, the Spartans are good, and the game will be a battle. But Duke matches up much better against MSU than Memphis. And we have better players at every position than Memphis. And a (much) better coach.

Chicago 1995
03-29-2013, 10:12 AM
At this point, regardless of his affiliation with Duke, does it surprise anyone that Bilas picks against Duke once they get deeper in the tournament? I guarantee Bilas will pick against Duke if they continue to advance.

There are a lot of good, legitimate reasons to pick MSU tonight and most of them have been discussed in this thread. The tourney is about matchups -- ask Indiana -- and MSU isn't a great matchup for us. Some of their strengths play into our weaknesses -- rebounding; bigger atheltic wings defending Seth and Quinn -- and that's not being biased. Jay picking them is as legit as anything. We absolutely could lose tonight. We could play well and lose tonight. We got a tough draw -- as did MSU -- and we're playing another top 10 team tonight. I don't get why it bothers people that Bilas tries to be honest in his analysis.

And going forward, god willing, I doubt anyone picks us against Louisville with the way the Ville is playing right now. We're at a point in the tourney with our draw that we are playing and are going to play really good teams that it is perfectly reasonable to pick to beat us. It's not like Jay claimed Creighton would run us, or that we'd get beat by Albany. It's not like he's saying we're overseeded. It's not like he's saying we shouldn't be in the tourney. In a game of two top 10 teams, he's picking the other one.

DukeAlumBS
03-29-2013, 10:22 AM
I am reading from ESPN. Tom Izzo has a son that will be going to Duke. He asked his dad about a game. Izzo said go with your head, not your heart. He picked Duke. His son will be on the Duke bench for this game. I just read on ESPN, and found it to be funny, and a good omen.
Go Duke
Jimmy

gus
03-29-2013, 10:27 AM
I am reading from ESPN. Tom Izzo has a son that will be going to Duke. He asked his dad about a game. Izzo said go with your head, not your heart. He picked Duke. His son will be on the Duke bench for this game. I just read on ESPN, and found it to be funny, and a good omen.
Go Duke
Jimmy

I'm fairly sure the son to Duke thinkg is a joke. He's only 12.

Featherson mentions this in his front page Sweet Sixteen story
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=46951

It's a pretty funny though.

CDu
03-29-2013, 10:37 AM
I'm fairly sure the son to Duke thinkg is a joke. He's only 12.

Featherson mentions this in his front page Sweet Sixteen story
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=46951

It's a pretty funny though.

Yeah, that's just Coach K taking a good-natured jab at his friend Izzo.

rtnorthrup
03-29-2013, 10:46 AM
I have to respectfully disagree with the front page article's assessment that Memphis is a more talented team than Michigan State. I watched Memphis play both of its Tournament games live in Auburn Hills, and while they are super athletic, and Joe Jackson is a very nice college guard who can shoot, dish, penetrate and defend well for his tiny size, the rest of the team lacks well-developed big-time college skills.

Memphis ran St. Mary's out of the gym for a half by just using their speed in the open court, blocking shots, and penetrating against St. Mary's flat footed skinny big men. Then they started turning the ball over and making mistakes and St. Mary's caught up gradually with a chance to win on a buzzer beater from the corner.

I fully expected Michigan State to capitalize on Memphis' mistakes, and to turn them into a jump shooting team, which the Spartans did. Memphis was totally overmatched in every phase of the game besides overall athleticism.

It is definitely true, however, that the most important difference between Michigan State and Memphis is coaching. Memphis did not have a plan against Michigan State. And that went badly.

Memphis also did not have a big man who could really hang with Nix, and had no one who could match up with Payne.

The Creighton team Duke played on Sunday was far more disciplined, skilled and better coached (though less athletic) than Memphis. I would not look at Michigan State's blow-out win over Memphis in front of a highly partisan home crowd as much of a harbinger of anything.

That said, the Spartans are good, and the game will be a battle. But Duke matches up much better against MSU than Memphis. And we have better players at every position than Memphis. And a (much) better coach.

Glad someone else said this. That was my exact reaction after reading the article on the front page today. This idea that Tom Izzo takes some rag tag bunch of nobodys and turns them into national champs is a myth. The Michigan State players are very skilled, and most were heavily recruited. Tom Izzo is an excellent coach and recruits to his style of play, but he is not some mystical being. Nix and Payne are as good and skilled as any frontcourt in the nation. They will be a load. Harris will be a handful for Sheed. If we shoot well, Michigan State will have trouble defending us. If we don't shoot well, this will become a bloody war. Looking forward to it. These are the types of games that make college basketball special, regardless of the outcome.

matt1
03-29-2013, 10:47 AM
We need three of Curry, Plumlee, Cook, Suliamon, and Kelly to play well. On a side note, my phone autocorrected Plumlee to Plumper.

DukeAlumBS
03-29-2013, 11:18 AM
I'm fairly sure the son to Duke thinkg is a joke. He's only 12.

Featherson mentions this in his front page Sweet Sixteen story
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=46951

It's a pretty funny though.

It is funny though, all have a good sense of humor between the 2 coaches. Have nice weekend

Jimmy

gwlaw99
03-29-2013, 12:07 PM
Seems many people on this board are pessimistic, while everyone on MSU boards think they will crush us. Let's hope MSU is just as over confident tonight.

superdave
03-29-2013, 12:49 PM
Here's a Jay Bilas article for those with Insider access. (http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2013/story/_/id/9105064/2013-ncaa-tournament-how-michigan-state-matches-duke)

He breaks down the matchups and says Duke has to keep up with MSU on the boards while Sparty cannot turn the ball over. That seems consistent with what folks on this board think. The most interesting matchup will be Cook vs. Appling, because if one of those guys owns the other, that would likely be a big difference in the outcome. The other issue for both teams will be how the refs call it. A physical, disjointed game with tons of free throws and breaks in action favors Sparty. A game with some flow to it will likely let Duke's offense get moving. The first few minutes ought to be telling.

superdave
03-29-2013, 01:06 PM
Dana O'Neill article on Duke-MSU. (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/82129/picking-sides-in-duke-michigan-state)

He points out Ryan Kelly's shooting slump the last couple of weeks. If Ryan starts off hot, he really can open things up inside for Mason and for dribble drives that could get Sparty into foul trouble.

CDu
03-29-2013, 01:10 PM
Dana O'Neill article on Duke-MSU. (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/82129/picking-sides-in-duke-michigan-state)

He points out Ryan Kelly's shooting slump the last couple of weeks. If Ryan starts off hot, he really can open things up inside for Mason and for dribble drives that could get Sparty into foul trouble.

Just an FYI - Dana is a woman.

moonpie23
03-29-2013, 01:13 PM
Dana O'Neill article on Duke-MSU. (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/82129/picking-sides-in-duke-michigan-state)

He points out Ryan Kelly's shooting slump the last couple of weeks. If Ryan starts off hot, he really can open things up inside for Mason and for dribble drives that could get Sparty into foul trouble.

SHE points out...

NashvilleDevil
03-29-2013, 01:37 PM
Seems many people on this board are pessimistic, while everyone on MSU boards think they will crush us. Let's hope MSU is just as over confident tonight.

Pessimism for this game is not nearly as bad as it was for the Creighton game. I think Duke grinds out another 15-18 point win tonight.

pfrduke
03-29-2013, 01:51 PM
Pessimism for this game is not nearly as bad as it was for the Creighton game. I think Duke grinds out another 15-18 point win tonight.

That pessimism didn't really have as much to do with the opponent, though - as much as people talked about fearing Creighton, I think it really was a bunch of people terrified of an opening weekend loss. We would have seen a lot of the same doom and gloom (just with a slightly different theme) if Cincinnati had won. Michigan State is clearly better than Creighton was and, perhaps more significantly, matches up with us in a much more problematic way. The three things I'm looking for are having a 6% or better advantage on turnovers (ideally, would be MSU around 24% and us around 15%); better than 30% offensive rebounding and better than 65% defensive rebounding; and 35% or better from beyond the arc. I think all of those things are within reach (if slightly optimistic), and I think it will be hard for MSU to win if all of those things come out in our favor - they'd either have to go crazy shooting from the field or dominate at the free throw line.

superdave
03-29-2013, 02:14 PM
Just an FYI - Dana is a woman.

When did that happen? Just kidding.

Guess I've never seen Dana O'Neil before. Perhaps I was thinking of Dana Barros.

Kedsy
03-29-2013, 02:18 PM
Guess I've never seen Dana O'Neil before.

I sat next to her at a press conference last weekend. She's definitely female.

GGLC
03-29-2013, 02:31 PM
Pessimism for this game is not nearly as bad as it was for the Creighton game. I think Duke grinds out another 15-18 point win tonight.

I don't think either team will win by 15-18 points.

luvdahops
03-29-2013, 02:32 PM
Everyone should keep in mind that Sparty lost twice this year to Indiana, a team that is very similar to us - small guards, not overly physical upfront but very balanced offensively.

superdave
03-29-2013, 02:43 PM
I don't think either team will win by 15-18 points.

Well, Michigan State is not an offensive powerhouse. They may be able to keep Duke below its scoring avaerage of 78. But they very well may have trouble hitting shots as their 68 points per game suggests (62 in losses). The odds of them chucking bricks all night are pretty decent I'd argue. If Duke can get any offensive flow going vs. Michigan State's defensive line and free safeties, they can win by double digits because Sparty doesnt score much.

NashvilleDevil
03-29-2013, 02:55 PM
I don't think either team will win by 15-18 points.

If Duke makes their shots then they can certainly win by that margin. I don't think Michigan St can keep pace with Duke if the Blue Devils get going. Against Creighton we saw one of Duke's best, if not the best, defensive efforts of the season. Let's hope we get to see one of Duke's beat rebounding efforts of the season.

One poster mentioned the officiating having an impact on game flow tonight. In the 1st two rounds it seemed whenever Duke was going to make the run to put the game out of reach Albany and Creighton would get free points at the line. If Michigan St gets those opportunities then Duke will have to grind out the win but if there is a flow to it then I think Duke wins by a comfortable margin.

Bluedog
03-29-2013, 03:12 PM
Well, Michigan State is not an offensive powerhouse. They may be able to keep Duke below its scoring avaerage of 78. But they very well may have trouble hitting shots as their 68 points per game suggests (62 in losses). The odds of them chucking bricks all night are pretty decent I'd argue. If Duke can get any offensive flow going vs. Michigan State's defensive line and free safeties, they can win by double digits because Sparty doesnt score much.

I hope so, but MSU has only lost one game all season by double digits. So, it would be very unusual.

NashvilleDevil
03-29-2013, 03:32 PM
I hope so, but MSU has only lost one game all season by double digits. So, it would be very unusual.

Prior to last night's shellacking against Marquette, Miami only had one loss by double digits.

ArtVandelay
03-29-2013, 03:33 PM
How much do you think Duke not getting past the Sweet 16, other than 2010, have had on people making predictions? It's not like Michigan St has Duke's number, Izzo has only beaten Duke once and that was in 2005 of course that was in the Sweet 16 as well.


I suspect that this, along with the fact that Duke lost in the first round of the ACC tournament (for whatever that's worth), are probably the two biggest reasons that folks might see us losing. Well, that and MSU does have the potential to be a tough matchup for us.

One thing that I find interesting is the extent to which this game and games generally this time of year tend to be about the "program." If people are picking against us because we lost to Michigan St. in the Sweet 16 in 2005, I'm sorry to say it, but that's crackers. These are completely different teams. Even picking against Duke because we lost in the first round last year is sort of silly -- true, we have some of the same players, but mostly it's a completely different team (Kelly did not play, no more Rivers or Miles, addition of Quinn in his new and improved form and Sheed).

The media coverage seems to be focusing so much on Coach K and Izzo, trying to compare the programs, and Izzo's son. It's a cute story, I get that, but there are actual PLAYERS that are competing in this game. Would like to hear more coverage of this potentially being the last game of great Duke careers for Mason, Seth, and Ryan. And for god's sakes -- pick Michigan St. because you think they are a better team now, not because of what happened in prior years.

To his credit, Bilas actually did do this. He thinks that MSU is a bad matchup for us, and he is correct about that.

Also, just to be clear, this is not meant to be a criticism of either of you, because you clearly are citing reasons why other people might be picking against Duke. Your posts were just illustrative of what I was thinking about.

mike88
03-29-2013, 04:39 PM
I wonder if Coach K will play a line-up with Jefferson at the 3 any tonight. While we haven't used it to any extent this year, it might offer some benefits vs MSU: most importantly, better rebounding, but also potentially better backcourt match-ups: if Jefferson plays Dawson, which I am sure he can, then Sulaimon could play Harris, leaving either Cook or Curry on Appling and negating MSU's size advantage. As long as Ryan can establish his outside shot, it wouldn't be particularly disadvantageous on the offensive end, as we have shown we can still score with one "non-threat" in the game (and frankly I think Jefferson's offensive rebounding gives our offense a little diversity, which may not a bad thing).

1 24 90
03-29-2013, 04:55 PM
Warning: keeping in line with Izzo's wanting to model his program after Duke, MSU has on numerous occasions this year slapped the floor. Don't be offended if this happens tonight. It won't be in the same vein as when Miami did it.

CameronBlue
03-29-2013, 04:58 PM
I wonder if Coach K will play a line-up with Jefferson at the 3 any tonight. While we haven't used it to any extent this year, it might offer some benefits vs MSU: most importantly, better rebounding, but also potentially better backcourt match-ups: if Jefferson plays Dawson, which I am sure he can, then Sulaimon could play Harris, leaving either Cook or Curry on Appling and negating MSU's size advantage. As long as Ryan can establish his outside shot, it wouldn't be particularly disadvantageous on the offensive end, as we have shown we can still score with one "non-threat" in the game (and frankly I think Jefferson's offensive rebounding gives our offense a little diversity, which may not a bad thing).

Over his cold, dead body.

Kedsy
03-29-2013, 05:15 PM
He thinks that MSU is a bad matchup for us, and he is correct about that.

Michigan State is a good team. They might beat us. But are they really a bad matchup for us?

In 2006, LSU was a bad matchup. They had a guy who could play Shelden in single coverage and they had long athletic defenders who could keep JJ under control. They took away our strengths.

In 2008 and 2009, we played small ball. West Virginia and Villanova were bad matchups for us, not because they were bigger than we were, but because they were also small and thus could neutralize us at the things we did best.

In 2010, everyone thought Baylor was a nightmare matchup for us because they were so much more athletic (in the traditional run/jump sense). But as Doug Gottlieb infamously pointed out, lots of teams were more athletic than us that year. We beat them all (including Baylor, obviously). The teams that were bad matchups for us in 2010 were similarly unathletic teams like Wisconsin, Georgetown, and NC State (maybe Butler, too). Teams that played four-out one-in and took away one of the 2010 Duke team's biggest strengths, our fabulous help defense inside.

Michigan State is a great rebounding team, and rebounding is perhaps our biggest weakness. They will probably outrebound us. So? Practically everybody outrebounds us. And we've still won almost all the time while being outrebounded. Not saying that we'll win or that we'll lose, but I'd be more inclined to think Michigan State was a bad matchup if they could take away our strength instead of merely playing upon our weakness like everyone else.

Just my opinion, of course.

Kedsy
03-29-2013, 05:16 PM
I wonder if Coach K will play a line-up with Jefferson at the 3 any tonight.

It would be quite a shock if we saw that for more than a few seconds. Frankly, it would be a shock if we saw it even for a few seconds.

MChambers
03-29-2013, 05:30 PM
It would be quite a shock if we saw that for more than a few seconds. Frankly, it would be a shock if we saw it even for a few seconds.
It is only slightly more likely than Duke playing a zone.

MCFinARL
03-29-2013, 05:40 PM
The media coverage seems to be focusing so much on Coach K and Izzo, trying to compare the programs, and Izzo's son. It's a cute story, I get that, but there are actual PLAYERS that are competing in this game. Would like to hear more coverage of this potentially being the last game of great Duke careers for Mason, Seth, and Ryan. And for god's sakes -- pick Michigan St. because you think they are a better team now, not because of what happened in prior years.



I'm actually pretty happy that the media coverage is focusing on the coaching matchup. It gives the players a chance to focus on the game--especially our seniors, who probably wouldn't be helped by having a lot of people ask them repeatedly how it feels to be playing what is potentially the last game of their careers. There will be plenty of time to talk/read about that after that last game occurs--hopefully not for another 10 days or so.

Chris Randolph
03-29-2013, 05:42 PM
Rebounding. Obviously it has been a big topic of MSU's advantage. The best way to take that away, make shots. When it comes to defensive rebounding for Duke, there are NO excuses for anyone to be watching. All 5 have got to rebound

ArtVandelay
03-29-2013, 06:04 PM
Michigan State is a good team. They might beat us. But are they really a bad matchup for us?

In 2006, LSU was a bad matchup. They had a guy who could play Shelden in single coverage and they had long athletic defenders who could keep JJ under control. They took away our strengths.

In 2008 and 2009, we played small ball. West Virginia and Villanova were bad matchups for us, not because they were bigger than we were, but because they were also small and thus could neutralize us at the things we did best.

In 2010, everyone thought Baylor was a nightmare matchup for us because they were so much more athletic (in the traditional run/jump sense). But as Doug Gottlieb infamously pointed out, lots of teams were more athletic than us that year. We beat them all (including Baylor, obviously). The teams that were bad matchups for us in 2010 were similarly unathletic teams like Wisconsin, Georgetown, and NC State (maybe Butler, too). Teams that played four-out one-in and took away one of the 2010 Duke team's biggest strengths, our fabulous help defense inside.

Michigan State is a great rebounding team, and rebounding is perhaps our biggest weakness. They will probably outrebound us. So? Practically everybody outrebounds us. And we've still won almost all the time while being outrebounded. Not saying that we'll win or that we'll lose, but I'd be more inclined to think Michigan State was a bad matchup if they could take away our strength instead of merely playing upon our weakness like everyone else.

Just my opinion, of course.

Sure, I mean, part of it is just that they are a top 10 team. Anyone that good is a bad matchup, in part. Perhaps I was being too glib, but I do think they're a particularly bad match-up for us, relatively speaking. Yes, they are very good at rebounding and we are not so great at that. Payne could be a load for Kelly to handle athletically. They have bulk inside, so Mason won't be able to push people around. They have big, athletic wings, and Seth has sometimes struggled against that type of player. They have a playmaking PG (albeit an erratic one), and we sometimes struggle defending dribble penetration. And yes, of course, they can play physical and try to muck things up in a way that our team is not necessarily well-suited for.

That said, we have our strengths, although I am curious what you are referring to when you say "take away our strength." I guess I'm not sure why a team that can "take away our strength" versus "exploit our weaknesses" is more likely to beat us. It seems like you are drawing on a pretty small sample size of games from one season 3 years ago to reach that conclusion. I mean, surely you have do both to win, right? This year, Miami and Maryland have beaten us by exploiting our weaknesses, at least in part -- failure to stop dribble penetration, lack of basket protection/help defense, poor rebounding, Mason getting frustrated by playing a guy with a lot of size, poor shooting by Curry when guarded by athletic wing defenders, etc.

To be clear, I'm not saying we will lose. Just that I think MSU is a particularly tough matchup.

Fish80
03-29-2013, 06:34 PM
We might see Alex at the 3 in some spots tonight.

jmck214
03-29-2013, 06:41 PM
We might see Alex at the 3 in some spots tonight.


I highly doubt that we see Alex and I don't even think we will see Amile tonight (unfortunately) unless our bigs get in foul trouble again

slower
03-29-2013, 06:56 PM
I highly doubt that we see Alex and I don't even think we will see Amile tonight (unfortunately) unless our bigs get in foul trouble again

After Amile's great minutes last game, I sure hope he gets more minutes than Josh. And if I see Josh shoot another of his putrid jumpers tonight, I may injure myself.

Duvall
03-29-2013, 06:57 PM
After Amile's great minutes last game, I sure hope he gets more minutes than Josh. And if I see Josh shoot another of his putrid jumpers tonight, I may injure myself.

Well, as long as you aren't overreacting.

slower
03-29-2013, 07:01 PM
Well, as long as you aren't overreacting.

Me? Overreact?? Never!! :p

Seriously, though, aren't there a dwindling number of situations where Amile ISN'T an upgrade over Josh?

Cameron
03-29-2013, 07:42 PM
And if I see Josh shoot another of his putrid jumpers tonight, I may injure myself.

Then I hope you were a Boy Scout and have a merit badge in first aid, because Josh has no willpower with the ball in his hands 19 feet from the basket. He is resolutely determined to make that shot, bless his heart. I just wish he'd give up his dream and concentrate on the types of basketball plays he makes best -- hustle, rebounding, clean-up points, etc.

slower
03-29-2013, 08:44 PM
I like that the mods have already posted the "no venting" warning. ;)

MulletMan
03-29-2013, 09:02 PM
I like that the mods have already posted the "no venting" warning. ;)

Yep, and we'll be enforcing it too. And that includes before the game.

moonpie23
03-29-2013, 09:06 PM
to me, success is always doing better than you did last time.......we've gotten to the 16.....look at the other REALLY good teams that did not....

I'm proud of our guys and win or lose, i love this team....


go duke!!

devildeac
03-29-2013, 09:07 PM
Defend and rebound. Defend and rebound. Relentlessly. For 40 minutes. K knows what is coming and hopefully has prepared our guys for a war tonight.

slower
03-29-2013, 09:11 PM
Yep, and we'll be enforcing it too. And that includes before the game.

All we ask is that you call the game consistently (as in, moderation will be consistent with previous games). :p

jmck214
03-29-2013, 09:28 PM
anxiously waiting for this game I've been flipping between the Tourney games and the Celtics game. Shav putting in some work with 13 boards in 18 minutes. Could have used that 8 years ago v. MSU when Shelden got in fould trouble. Now we need Mase and the White Raven to take care of the boards tonight. LET'S GOOOO

MulletMan
03-29-2013, 09:34 PM
All we ask is that you call the game consistently (as in, moderation will be consistent with previous games). :p

Actually, it will not be consistent with previous games. It may not happen during the game as, well, we'd like to watch. But we will be going back through the thread and any post game thread and culling posts that contain venting and DN comments. The warning is at the top of each board in bright yellow. You vent, you get a 5 point infraction which earns you a two day ban.

Everyone has been warned by that note, and now by me.

riverside6
03-29-2013, 09:40 PM
Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Michigan State, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=19783

noworries
03-29-2013, 09:41 PM
LETS GO BOYS!!! Let's get a good start to this one

MulletMan
03-29-2013, 09:44 PM
Woo




























































WOO!

Tripping William
03-29-2013, 09:50 PM
Chuckwagon picks us & Gottlieb flip-flops to pick us. FWIW (squat).

77devil
03-29-2013, 09:50 PM
Chuck picks "the best school in the Carolinas." Love it.

moonpie23
03-29-2013, 09:51 PM
Let's get this thing going!!!!

hurleyfor3
03-29-2013, 09:55 PM
Gottlieb flip-flops to pick us.

Oh. Crap.

-bdbd
03-29-2013, 09:58 PM
Can't...wait....any....more! Please start!!!

Just play to our capabilities and we should win. I hope the guys seize the moment and don't play "not to lose." I have faith.

GO DUKE!

IBleedBlue
03-29-2013, 10:00 PM
If there is an online broadcast to watch the game, I would appreciate if someone can post it here.
Unfortunately, the ncaa video online feature cant be used from outside US.

devil84
03-29-2013, 10:05 PM
If there is an online broadcast to watch the game, I would appreciate if someone can post it here.
Unfortunately, the ncaa video online feature cant be used from outside US.

Thread here (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?30950-2013-NCAA-Tournament-Broadcasts-TV-Internet-Radio) on broadcast info with some info on outside the US.

Gthoma2a
03-29-2013, 10:07 PM
Thornton has to be careful with that. I appreciate the effort, but this game hasn't gotten away from us (we are up). We don't need to give them extra possessions.

pfrduke
03-29-2013, 10:09 PM
Well, if any Devil was going to get a flagrant, Tyler was a good bet.

Gthoma2a
03-29-2013, 10:09 PM
Well, if any Devil was going to get a flagrant, Tyler was a good bet.

Followed by Josh.

Udaman
03-29-2013, 10:11 PM
Valentine has walked twice in a row!

FerryFor50
03-29-2013, 10:13 PM
I like it... refs are calling fouls, but not going insane with calls so far. Hope that keeps up...

FerryFor50
03-29-2013, 10:15 PM
I also LOVE LOVE LOVE how the guards are boxing out and crashing the boards.

I don't like how Nix was allowed to kick Plumlee on his drive with no call, however.

turnandburn55
03-29-2013, 10:20 PM
Plumlee sure makes me nervous every time he does the "jump pass"

wtm001
03-29-2013, 10:21 PM
Wheres Sonya? Show Sonya damnit!

FerryFor50
03-29-2013, 10:21 PM
Also loving the defense so far.... and Plumlee's assertiveness. And Curry's shooting. And Kelly's offense.

Not a lot not to like so far!

FerryFor50
03-29-2013, 10:23 PM
Probably the most obvious missed goaltend call in the history of goal tends. So that's something not to like...

hurleyfor3
03-29-2013, 10:23 PM
We finally get the makeup non-goaltend call 22 years after the one we were gifted against unlv

El_Diablo
03-29-2013, 10:24 PM
Inconceivable!

pfrduke
03-29-2013, 10:24 PM
Probably the most obvious missed goaltend call in the history of goal tends. So that's something not to like...

That was unconscionable.

turnandburn55
03-29-2013, 10:24 PM
If it had no chance of going in, why bother blocking it?

duke96
03-29-2013, 10:24 PM
Probably the most obvious missed goaltend call in the history of goal tends.

Amazing

follyblue
03-29-2013, 10:25 PM
I like the way we are keeping them off the boards.

Papa John
03-29-2013, 10:25 PM
Inconceivable!

I do not think it means what you think it means...

CDu
03-29-2013, 10:25 PM
Well, they are certainly letting them play at the moment. Curry gets his shot goaltended... no call. Harris gets fouled on the drive on the other end... no call. Cook goes for a layup and gets fouled... no call. Appling gets fouled on the other end... no call. I have a feeling that this does not play to our advantage in the long run.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-29-2013, 10:25 PM
I feel like we're a couple of made 3's away from taking control of the half. fingers crossed....

CDu
03-29-2013, 10:26 PM
I feel like we're a couple of made 3's away from taking control of the half. fingers crossed....

That's true. If we can start hitting shots, I like our chances (says Captain Obvious).

FerryFor50
03-29-2013, 10:27 PM
Looks like the Izzo strategy is to throw big bodies at Plumlee and just foul him.

pfrduke
03-29-2013, 10:27 PM
All of a sudden no one can guard Mason in the post without fouling.

CDu
03-29-2013, 10:28 PM
I'm not sure why Kellogg is arguing about that goaltend. It was obviously going to hit the basket. Doesn't matter if the refs thought it wouldn't. If they did, they were wrong.

Udaman
03-29-2013, 10:31 PM
Exactly. You can justify the non-call all you want - doesn't change that it was a horrible, horrible miss.

FerryFor50
03-29-2013, 10:31 PM
Uh oh. They showed Sonya when Curry is already on fire. MSU is in trouble.

JBDuke
03-29-2013, 10:31 PM
Wow. I'm liking Sonya's outfit tonight. :-)

FerryFor50
03-29-2013, 10:32 PM
I'm not sure why Kellogg is arguing about that goaltend. It was obviously going to hit the basket. Doesn't matter if the refs thought it wouldn't. If they did, they were wrong.

Maybe he thought they were playing Ohio St?

striker219
03-29-2013, 10:33 PM
I'm not sure why Kellogg is arguing about that goaltend. It was obviously going to hit the basket. Doesn't matter if the refs thought it wouldn't. If they did, they were wrong.

He's channeling his inner elmore.

FerryFor50
03-29-2013, 10:33 PM
YESSSSSS! Two on Nix!

Plumlee is on a mission tonight!

CDu
03-29-2013, 10:33 PM
2 fouls on Nix, 2 on Costello, and 2 on Dawson. Up 6 with Mason going to the line. I like the way things have started for us. Let's hope we keep it up.

_Gary
03-29-2013, 10:34 PM
What's wrong with Quinn? It seems to me his head has not been in the games since this tourney started.

jmck214
03-29-2013, 10:34 PM
to say that quinn is out of sync would be a huge understatement. Both times he lost control of the ball we had chances to extend the lead. I do love that none of our bigs have a foul on them yet.

pfrduke
03-29-2013, 10:34 PM
2 fouls on Nix, 2 on Costello, and 2 on Dawson. Up 6 with Mason going to the line. I like the way things have started for us.

And almost all of them drawn by Mason.