MBB: Duke 73, Albany 61 (NCAA R64) Post-Game Thread

[hurleyfor3]

What, we don't have one of these yet? We do now.

[1 24 90]

Thank you. I was wondering where it was. Good games from Seth & Mason. Albany shot the 3 well to stay in the game. My opinion is that I would much rather face Cincinnati because it seems that a lot of teams are having trouble scoring and I would rather face a team with a bad offense and a good defense than vice versa.

[azzefkram]

Odd win, but a win still. On to Sunday.

[Phoenix22]

Good win against a team shooting 9/15 on 3s. I did get a little nervous when they cut it to single digits, but we executed well down the stretch and kept composure. Seth Curry was just smooth. Lets hope Kelly gets his shot back...

The negativity in the in-game thread was very disappointing.

Survive and Advance!

[OldPhiKap]

Survive, advance. On to Sunday!

[hurleyfor3]

Albany played the way a 15-seed needs to play to have a chance to win. Dial back a few threes, a few FTs (they shot 14-16) and a couple stupid Duke fouls and TOs and it's a 20+ point victory.

[KandG]

Great game from Seth and Mason. Defense overall was better than it has been recently, though still far from great.

I still don't feel great about Sunday. Keeping an inferior team in the game and Ryan and Quinn missing all their threes will do that. But kudos to the team for coming out with the effort and passion needed to win the first game. Albany was feisty and never gave in. Duke responded in a composed manner and put it away.

[NashvilleDevil]

I'm sure there was nerves today after last year. Even with the nerves I think Duke had this game in control throughout, despite what some of the more ridiculous posts in the in game thread said. On non-3 pointers Albany was 10/37. They hit some ridiculous 3s and that kept them in it. Duke also got whistled for some cheap fouls. I'm still confident this team gets out of the weekend and with this win can play loose Sunday and dispatch UC or Creighton.

[drcharl]

The 14-16 from the foul line also kept them in the game.

[hudlow]

Honestly glad not to see Duke win in a blowout today. I don't believe it would have been good for the team. Duke needs to realize they are not invincible...and play with a chip on their shoulder from here on out..

[_Gary]

Albany's head coach just goes with a cheap shot on Mason's hooks, a couple of Quinn's shots, and the bank 3 that Curry hit. Basically calling us lucky, I guess. No class.

[wsb3]

And Albany 14-16 from the line.. When we were up by 8 and missed ..and subsequently Curry got a layup.. That was to me the biggest play of the game.

[DukieInBrasil]

Happy that Mason and Seth showed up for this one. Quinn finally displayed that nifty passing touch many here have been hankering for. However, if they play like this in the next game, they'll be going home. Seemed like Mason was getting pushed a lot when he was making moves to the basket, but the refs refused to call pushes, still, Mason had a fantastic game.
After his phenomenal return to game action vs Miami, Kelly has shot 2-15 from 3. Sulaimon was also somewhat absent.
I still don't understand why Hairston gets all the PT at back-up PF. 2 rebs and no points against a team he should have been able to do well against. Getting stuffed when receiving the ball next to the rim on a great pass from Plumlee with an unobstructed path to the rim kinda sums it up for Josh.
Survived and advanced. All in all, good (enough) job guys.

[UrinalCake]

At this point in the season all that matters is that we win the game, so I'm not worrying about what our margin was or how we looked or what this means moving forward. Our team can play terribly one game and great the next and vice versa.

Nice to see us exploit our advantage inside and not shoot too many threes. Time for the team to get rested and prepare for the next one.

[wsb3]

Albany's head coach just goes with a cheap shot on Mason's hooks, a couple of Quinn's shots, and the bank 3 that Curry hit. Basically calling us lucky, I guess. No class.

I thought Mason got shoved out on a couple of those hook shots and should have been and one.

[NashvilleDevil]

The 14-16 from the foul line also kept them in the game.

Felt like every time Duke was about to start a run they'd get a foul call and Albany was able to score free points illustrating your point.

[pfrduke]

Albany's head coach just goes with a cheap shot on Mason's hooks, a couple of Quinn's shots, and the bank 3 that Curry hit. Basically calling us lucky, I guess. No class.

Why is this classless? He thought his team was in the game and with a couple of (additional) bounces in their favor its a different game.
Coaches say that kind of stuff all the time.

[nyesq83]

After a portion of the 1st half where Ryan didn't seem to have game-speed, he began playing aggressive, smart, scrappy recovery- and disruptive- D, especially in the last minutes.

Albany shot the lights out. They played great against us, but our guys didn't quit either.

After a shaky start, Plumlee made some really nice hook moves, and alley oops sure help a dude's confidence.

Cook was solidly excellent distributing while not shooting as well as he can.

All the role players were effective.

Curry was nearly unstoppable.

My complaints: containment along the baseline - too many easy baskets where our guys didn't seal it off; excessive double and triple teaming on D and losing assignments on scramble plays and 50-50 loose ball plays - our guys seemed a little tight/mired in mud until the second half.

Reggie said we were good but not great. We all can agree on that.

Len: (hints that we fouled) "two Albany guys who were knocked to the floor, and Seth Curry scored, and that was the turning point."

All in all, a good game but a great team-win.

[DukieInBrasil]

Honestly glad not to see Duke win in a blowout today. I don't believe it would have been good for the team. Duke needs to realize they are not invincible...and play with a chip on their shoulder from here on out..

This team hasn't done that all year, and has shown no indications that it can play that way. They can play composed and execute well, and when they do they are a very tough team to beat. However, this team doesn't play mean or withe proverbial "chip on its shoulder". I guess i agree that it was good to not win in a blowout.

[Bob Green]

After a portion of the 1st half where Ryan didn't seem to have game-speed...

Kelly looks sick, literally not a sarcastic comment, like he has the flu or mono or something. Overall, a solid R64 win. I would've preferred better balanced scoring, but you take what you can get. Props to Albany for not folding. On to Sunday, it is all about surviving and advancing.

[GGLC]

All the role players were effective.


Strongly disagree. Josh's lack of rotation on Albany's super-easy lay-up with ~5:22 left in the game really made me scratch my head.

[AGDukesky]

I'm sure there was nerves today after last year. Even with the nerves I think Duke had this game in control throughout, despite what some of the more ridiculous posts in the in game thread said. On non-3 pointers Albany was 10/37. They hit some ridiculous 3s and that kept them in it. Duke also got whistled for some cheap fouls. I'm still confident this team gets out of the weekend and with this win can play loose Sunday and dispatch UC or Creighton.

My thoughts exactly. Duke made some mistakes but this was a game where the score doesn't fully represent how much better Duke was. I will definitely take a double-digit win after last season and hope that the team just needed to get over that hurdle to gain some confidence.

[_Gary]

Why is this classless? He thought his team was in the game and with a couple of (additional) bounces in their favor its a different game.
Coaches say that kind of stuff all the time.

Really? Coaches talk about opposing players hitting shots they haven't seen in 12 years and basically disparraging the other team and insinuating they were lucky? I've never heard Coach K talk like that. I'm sorry, but I think there's a huge difference between saying a team hit tough shots vs hit ridiculous/lucky shots.

[nyesq83]

Strongly disagree. Josh's lack of rotation on Albany's super-easy lay-up with ~5:22 left in the game really made me scratch my head.

Effective does not equal perfect. Disagree all you want though :)

[licc85]

Big stat for me is Quinn Cook's 11 assists to 1 turnover. We are pretty amazing on offense when he's playing that well. Defense still needs more intensity. Can't let Cincinnati or Creighton get so many good looks from 3.

[ns7]

The good:
* Shot selection on offense: we got a lot of great looks and shot very well as a result
* Quinn Cook: he looked great at distributing, hopefully it continues on Sunday
* Ryan Kelly's defense: 3 blocks and I saw him playing good defense on the interior. I'd wish he'd go for the block instead of a charge on fast breaks though
* Plumlee and Curry
* 3 point defense: Yes, they shot 60% but we only let them take 15 shots. The key is limiting looks and we did a good job of that, especially at the end. We need to continue to limit these on Sunday against either foe, but especially against Creighton

The bad:
* Defensive rebounding: We only got 70% against a team that isn't good at grabbing their own misses
* Offensive rebounding: We only grabbed 26% of our own misses
* Fouling: We let them go to the line way too much. Cook had a particularly bad reach in 80 feet from his basket near the end

On the whole I'm pleased. This could have easily been a blowout but Albany pretty much maximized their shooting percentage, especially from long range. Still hoping for the defense to improve. I said we should be worried if Albany scored ~1ppp, which they did. But they did it in a way that we couldn't control: high accuracy on limited 3PA and extremely high FT%. So I'd say okay performance by the defense.

[Rudy]

I was in Greensboro and it was awful to see a Duke team so flat. So, I see lots of things to be happy about with this game. I'm hoping all the scorers can start clicking in the same games for a long run. On the last championship run, our three scorers (Scheyer, Singler, Smith) were alternating being on, but Jon had had an extended shooting slump until straightening it out in the ACC tournament. When it came to the big dance all three were scoring at the same time.

[Namtilal]

Remember when Suliamon used to penetrate and take high percentage shots? That was my favorite offense if the year. I don't recall that happening lately. Cook is a great passer but he doesn't break down the defense well. Seth has penetrated well because he takes what the defense needs. I want Rasheed coming off screens and cutting to the basket a few times a half though -- he can really put pressure on the defense and make things happen.

I worry that the guys are such good shooters that they don't work to get easy shots. We play a high degree of difficulty game.

On D - our guards should help rebound, as others have said. It's not like we have an effective transition game that would be sacrificed.

I think this team is very talented and can become dominant, but we have to impose our will on the other team. That is how you win in the tourney.

[Bojangles4Eva]

DVR'd the game since I am traveling and will watch later tonight. From looking at the stats, were we letting them take 3's or were they just on fire on contested 3pt shots? A quick look at Albany's stats show they only have one guy that shoots over 40%, so I'm thinking maybe letting them take 3's was part of the game plan???

[Chris Randolph]

Would have loved to see us handle them easier but glad we got the win. Albany put on a tremendous shooting display and we still won by 12 so I'm not discouraged about our defense as others. I would love to see more of a sense of urgency from this team but each team has a different personality, so be it.

Looking ahead, I feel like if we can play really well Sunday it could be a springboard for the rest of the tourney. Just win baby but if we can get some swagger back then i would feel much better

[ArtVandelay]

Am I being paranoid, or is anyone else worried about Ryan's foot? I chalked up some of his sluggishness against Maryland to his lack of conditioning, but when I saw there were reports that he was held out of practice earlier this week, I got concerned. Based on the way he looked on the court today, I'm more concerned. Not that he was ever fleet of foot, but he looked particularly off today. Another poster suggested that he looked sick (which would also explain the lack of practice), which could be true, but I see some red flags (plus I really am not a fan of the "our guys are sick" excuse).

Anyway, I can't say today's performance overall was confidence inspiring, exactly, but survive and advance.

[GGLC]

I worry that the guys are such good shooters that they don't work to get easy shots. We play a high degree of difficulty game.


This is a great observation, and well put. I noticed the same thing.

[Saratoga2]

In this game, we had a size advantage at virtually every position plus we were the more talented and tested team. We won, because we got good efforts from several players. In particular, Seth had a very efficient offensive game and Mason used his size inside to get many easy scores. Quinn distributed the ball well and both Ryan and Rasheed had good but not great games. Moving forward, we will have less of an advantage as we move ahead. Because of the better teams we will be facing, we will need to:
1. Cut off the baseline paths to the basket
2. Don't overhelp on penetrators while leaving the 3 poiint line so wide open
3. Don't give up the silly fouls which can at times turn the game momentum around.

Examples of item 3 is when Tyler went into the corner and pushed off, turning us over instead of getting a shot off. He them compounded the mistake by quickly fouling down inside and giving Albany 2 free throws, stopping the clock and putting us into the bonus. Thats on aspect of Tyler's game that I don't care for. (senseless fouls which happen all too often). Then there was Quinn's foul with time running down, stopping the clock and giving Albany 2 free throws. Ryan also made a mistake and then compounded it by fouling. Our guys need to playvoid giving up momentum changing fouls.

While I thought Ryan played a good game, it is troubling to see his outside shot is not zeroed in. We fortunately didn't have to rely on three point shooting today, but will that need to be a larger part of our game when we play teams with big and physical front courts?I was glad to see Amile get into the game. I often think that it is a toss up between he and Josh and in particular, favoring Amile in some matchups.

The guys need to get their rest, since Sunday's game will be more difficult.

[ChrisP]

Definitely an odd game, as someone else mentioned. If I didn't know the score, I would have thought Duke had a bigger lead than they did most of the game. I had to do a double take at the box score though - certainly never would have guessed that Rasheed only put up 2 shots. I thought that he seemed more aggressive and confident (i.e. the version of Rasheed that showed up in the ACC tourney). I thought a key point in the game was Mason's 2nd foul (a terrible call, IMHO) with maybe 6-7 minutes to go in the first half. At that point, I think we were up by 13 and looked to be ready to really crack the game open. After that, Mason sat the rest of the half and we looked like a different (worse) team. Obviously, when you lose a senior player with the caliber of MP2, you're gonna suffer.

I really thought there were some questionable calls both ways in this game and it just didn't seem to have a great flow to it, overall. I thought Albany easily could have been called for 4-5 more fouls in each half. I remember at least two times when the Albany player would give our guy a clear forearm in the chest to create space with no call. But Tyler did something that sort of, kinda, maybe looked like a push off and TWEET! Anyway, if not for Albany's hot 3 point shooting (60%) and a few untimely turnovers by Duke, I think this would have been a blowout for Duke. But, gotta give the Danes credit for fighting hard and never giving up.

Offensively, aside from Mason and Seth - who were great - our next highest scorer was Kelly with 8. We shot almost 59%, we outrebounded them, assisted on 17 of our 27 made FG's, and held them under 37% shooting . All of those things would make one think Duke won going away. Just a weird game in many respects.

[sagegrouse]

when we edged Miss. Valley State by seven. But ... the last 15 years, whenever we have won a round of 64 game by 12 or fewer we have failed to advance past the round of 16. Our four Final Four teams won, for example, by an average of 37 points (range: 29 to 43). But while past is prologue, it isn't destiny. This team can continue to win, I believe, if it shoots well and plays tough defense.

sagegrouse

[OldPhiKap]

Am I being paranoid, or is anyone else worried about Ryan's foot? I chalked up some of his sluggishness against Maryland to his lack of conditioning, but when I saw there were reports that he was held out of practice earlier this week, I got concerned. Based on the way he looked on the court today, I'm more concerned. Not that he was ever fleet of foot, but he looked particularly off today. Another poster suggested that he looked sick (which would also explain the lack of practice), which could be true, but I see some red flags (plus I really am not a fan of the "our guys are sick" excuse).

Anyway, I can't say today's performance overall was confidence inspiring, exactly, but survive and advance.

K said yesterday that Ryan was fine, but he is not in as good shape as the others because he was out two months. FWIW.

[Ichabod Drain]

I worry that the guys are such good shooters that they don't work to get easy shots. We play a high degree of difficulty game.



According to kenpom, defense has very little effect on 3-point shooting, which i agree with to some degree. Some days your hot and some days your not.

[gwlaw99]

I haven't seen us double team on the perimeter that much all year. Was that part of the game plan? It was the cause of several open looks.

[OldPhiKap]

I haven't seen us double team on the perimeter that much all year. Was that part of the game plan? It was the cause of several open looks.

I assume we were trying to speed them up, but they hit the shots. Probably can't press because of the quality of Albany's guards.

[tbyers11]

Albany's head coach just goes with a cheap shot on Mason's hooks, a couple of Quinn's shots, and the bank 3 that Curry hit. Basically calling us lucky, I guess. No class.

Someone should point out to him the threes they hit immediately after 1) a blatantly missed double dribble call, 2) an obvious push off by Black on Rasheed and 3) a bricked shot that Mason would have easily rebounded if it hadn't got stuck between the hoop and the backboard.

Take those away, especially the first two that made it close a game at the end of the first half, and it is a likely Duke blowout

If the all the ifs and buts were candy and nuts oh what a Christmas it would be.

Overall, pretty good game by the Devils. Ryan still looks a little rusty and we need to work on putting a team away. I kind of wanted a blowout but having to deal with a little game pressure without being seriously threatened is probably a good thing.

And last point. Seth was the man

[GGLC]

According to kenpom, defense has very little effect on 3-point shooting, which i agree with to some degree. Some days your hot and some days your not.

I didn't take him to mean three-point shooting, but shooting in general. We don't seem to work very hard to create easy shot attempt opportunities for ourselves. There is a lot of standing around on offense, and our high screens never really seem to do anything but push our ballhandler a bit further out.

[Dukeface88]

DVR'd the game since I am traveling and will watch later tonight. From looking at the stats, were we letting them take 3's or were they just on fire on contested 3pt shots? A quick look at Albany's stats show they only have one guy that shoots over 40%, so I'm thinking maybe letting them take 3's was part of the game plan???

Early on we were a bit slow on rotations/close-outs, which led to some open shots. We did better at contesting shots later on, but by then they were already hot and kept hitting them

[rocketeli]

I agree with other posters that Ryan was somewhat off today and I hope he's not injured/sick. Watching Creighton/Cinn now and I think I want Creighton to win because they seem like the kind of team Duke "understands" and can execute against, if that even makes sense. What do others think?

[MartyClark]

Good games by Seth and Mason. I'll miss these guys.

What time is the game on Sunday?

[dolver]

Can anyone find what time we are playing on Sunday? Is that set in stone yet?

[sagegrouse]

Good games by Seth and Mason. I'll miss these guys.

What time is the game on Sunday?

Not posted yet. CBS will decide the schedule after all the games are completed today. On Saturday, the first three games are on CBS and there are no competing NCAA games on TNT etc. until 6:10 EDT. I guess we'll be the first game on Sunday at 12:15 or so EDT, but who knows?

sagegrouse

[Bob Green]

Another poster suggested that he looked sick (which would also explain the lack of practice), which could be true, but I see some red flags (plus I really am not a fan of the "our guys are sick" excuse).

I wasn't making an excuse, I was offering an observation. IMO, RK looks sick.

[MChambers]

According to kenpom, defense has very little effect on 3-point shooting, which i agree with to some degree. Some days your hot and some days your not.

When did Pomeroy say this? Link? Duke year after year does a good job of limiting an opponent's 3 point attempts and percentage.

[Papa John]

I worry that the guys are such good shooters that they don't work to get easy shots. We play a high degree of difficulty game...

I think this team is very talented and can become dominant, but we have to impose our will on the other team. That is how you win in the tourney.

Actually, it seemed to me that both Seth and Quinn did a nice job of penetrating and creating easier shots, particularly in the second half. Seth does an amazing job of taking what the defense gives him. Cook was doing a great job of forcing the defenders to commit to stopping penetration, resulting in some easy baskets for our bigs. I think Sulaimon's issue is that defenders have started to play him much more physical, and he has not always adjusted well to that. This will change with experience. He looked frustrated today a number of times when he got hand-checked with no whistle when trying to start his drive. Seth seemed to share the same annoyance, but would work through the physical defense to finish his shot. there was one instance where Seth was obviously bumped on a runner that he sank, then turned to the sideline official with a sheepish grin shaking his head, as if to say, "c'mon, man... Gotta blow the whistle on that..."

As for imposing one's will... This game was never really in doubt. No, we didn't crush them, but does that really matter? We had no injuries, and we need to play sharper on the defensive end. Next round... Game on!

[-bdbd]

The good:
* Shot selection on offense: we got a lot of great looks and shot very well as a result
* Quinn Cook: he looked great at distributing, hopefully it continues on Sunday
* Ryan Kelly's defense: 3 blocks and I saw him playing good defense on the interior. I'd wish he'd go for the block instead of a charge on fast breaks though
* Plumlee and Curry
* 3 point defense: Yes, they shot 60% but we only let them take 15 shots. The key is limiting looks and we did a good job of that, especially at the end. We need to continue to limit these on Sunday against either foe, but especially against Creighton

The bad:
* Defensive rebounding: We only got 70% against a team that isn't good at grabbing their own misses
* Offensive rebounding: We only grabbed 26% of our own misses
* Fouling: We let them go to the line way too much. Cook had a particularly bad reach in 80 feet from his basket near the end

On the whole I'm pleased. This could have easily been a blowout but Albany pretty much maximized their shooting percentage, especially from long range. Still hoping for the defense to improve. I said we should be worried if Albany scored ~1ppp, which they did. But they did it in a way that we couldn't control: high accuracy on limited 3PA and extremely high FT%. So I'd say okay performance by the defense.

Good summary. Though I think our defense overall wasn't sterling. This was not a juggernaut offense we were up against, yet they seemed to get/make most of the shots they wanted, and at times seemed to out-tough us a bit. Still looking to see Duke turn up the intensity Sunday vs Cincy/Creighton. We can play MUCH better, and need to do so in order to get too much further.

Funny, re the fouling/FT's comment, we "got away with one" near then in on Ryan's steal/non-travel (sliding along the floor a couple feet), and even though this game was by no means a pro-Duke reffing crew, I was thinking to myself how many 'haters' are going to point to that one play and say, "See, Duke gets all the calls..." HA!!


Am I being paranoid, or is anyone else worried about Ryan's foot? I chalked up some of his sluggishness against Maryland to his lack of conditioning, but when I saw there were reports that he was held out of practice earlier this week, I got concerned. Based on the way he looked on the court today, I'm more concerned. Not that he was ever fleet of foot, but he looked particularly off today. Another poster suggested that he looked sick (which would also explain the lack of practice), which could be true, but I see some red flags (plus I really am not a fan of the "our guys are sick" excuse).

Anyway, I can't say today's performance overall was confidence inspiring, exactly, but survive and advance.

Not worried. I think they are just being cautious. Same with RK wearing the boot between games.


I was in Greensboro and it was awful to see a Duke team so flat. So, I see lots of things to be happy about with this game. I'm hoping all the scorers can start clicking in the same games for a long run. On the last championship run, our three scorers (Scheyer, Singler, Smith) were alternating being on, but Jon had had an extended shooting slump until straightening it out in the ACC tournament. When it came to the big dance all three were scoring at the same time.

I was in Greensboro too. How dismal was that??! I really didn't see how, on the heels of that performance, and with the memory of the early ouster last year, that there was any way we didn't come out motivated this time around. Now, let's see them take it up a notch next round.

[NSDukeFan]

I'm just happy I get to see this team play another day. I have enjoyed watching them play this year. I was very happy to see Quinn get a bunch of assists this game. Very nice to see him creating for others.

[Chris Randolph]

According to chrispom, we played terrible free throw defense today. Gave up 88% shooting

[KandG]

Analyst panel on truTV (Seth Davis, Rex Chapman, Steve Smith) made an interesting point. Said Duke doesn't really have a number 1 option, but a number of number two options who can get hot and dominate, which makes Quinn Cook's role really important in facilitating the offense and getting the scorers their looks. Seth Davis countered by saying the 2010 team didn't really establish any sort of "number one" on offense until close to the Final Four.

I've always felt Quinn is the key as far as how far this team goes, even more so with Ryan being up and down with his conditioning. Maryland's pressure (which Albany tried to mimic at various points today) took Quinn out of his game and he took too long on multiple possessions getting the team into its sets. Today he was really good (just a couple of bad decisions), but he'll need to be even better against whoever we're playing next.

Oh, and I'm guessing this was brought up a lot in the in-game thread, but hell is Len Elmore *and* Reggie Miller together on a broadcast.

[Papa John]

Funny, re the fouling/FT's comment, we "got away with one" near then in on Ryan's steal/non-travel (sliding along the floor a couple feet), and even though this game was by no means a pro-Duke reffing crew, I was thinking to myself how many 'haters' are going to point to that one play and say, "See, Duke gets all the calls..." HA!!

In a loose ball situation like that where the player is sliding across the floor while establishing possession, he won't be whistled for a travel as long as he doesn't try to alter his body position (by spinning, rolling, etc.). Note that this is clearly why Ryan just lay flat, waiting for a teammate to come to him. Had he tried to initiate a move in any direction, then he'd be guilty of a travel. According to the rule book, we didn't "get away with one" there.

[Ichabod Drain]

When did Pomeroy say this? Link? Duke year after year does a good job of limiting an opponent's 3 point attempts and percentage.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/defense_has_little_control_over_opponents_3p

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery

Attempts are definitely more controllable than %.

[wallyman]

We didn't look like a juggernaut, but never felt outcome was in doubt, and they couldn't miss from 3 and the line. Two biggest worries for me are Ryan - he's got to get his shot back -- and the fact that Seth played 36 minutes. He and Mason were great. Not worried about Mason on Sunday. One day rest after 36 minutes might be tough for Seth. But he's a tough kid. Onward and upward...

[moonpie23]

mason got into the team's azz when they started to get slack......

good win....monkey-be-gone.....


now onward!!

[MChambers]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/defense_has_little_control_over_opponents_3p

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery

Attempts are definitely more controllable than %.

Thanks very much!

Now that Kenpom is subscription for the good stuff, I can't take a detailed look at Duke's historical success on this point, but last time I looked we were awfully good on both aspects of 3 point defense. Interesting.

[jay]

Funny, re the fouling/FT's comment, we "got away with one" near then in on Ryan's steal/non-travel (sliding along the floor a couple feet), and even though this game was by no means a pro-Duke reffing crew, I was thinking to myself how many 'haters' are going to point to that one play and say, "See, Duke gets all the calls..." HA!!

You've just highlighted one of the most misunderstood rules in basketball. You can slide, gather the ball, and continue sliding. You can NOT have possession, then slide.

[ArtVandelay]

I wasn't making an excuse, I was offering an observation. IMO, RK looks sick.Sorry, didn't mean to suggest that you were. I was speaking more generally that I think people on this board sometimes tend to attribute poor performance to perceived illness. I don't know you to be one of those people. You may be right for all I know. To me, it's sort of irrelevant. Lots of teams might have sick guys. In March, you just have to play.

[gofurman]

people say "survive and advance" and I agree somewhat but our own data doesnt support that. From sagegrouse, great numbers:

""Victory Margins in Rounds of 64 and 32? We Have Data!

Originally Posted by sporthenry

I thought DBR had some stat where it was the other way around. A close first game usually signaled an early exit.
In the 12 Sweet Sixteens games since 1998, Duke has five wins and seven losses.

For the wins the average winning margin in the rounds of 64 and 32 was 28.7 points (36.8, 20.6).

For the losses the average winning margin was 11.3 points less: 17.4 points (25.3, 9.4).

Based on suggestive, although maybe not statistically significant, data, victory margin is linked to success.

I'll now look at correlation. The correlation coefficient between the victory margin in the Sweet Sixteen (positive or negative) with the sum of the victory margins in the rounds of 64 and 32 is a very healthy +0.71.

sagegrouse ""

*So margin in first round games is Defiinitely indicative of later success - as would be expected at least somewhat. I mean, do we really think ELton Brand / Jay Will / Boozer / Dunleavy / Battier teams were threatened early? I think they CRUSHED early opponents and thus went on to get to or win the title. It can be done but it is an indicator. Caveat is Albany was sick from 3pt land. Of course, take a few of those away and we still only win by 20 ish which still puts us in the loss column above. We have to close out better on 3pt shooters and not leave the baseline open. That was odd how open the baseline was on occasion - havent really seen that all year

[DukeCrow]

This team hasn't done that all year, and has shown no indications that it can play that way. They can play composed and execute well, and when they do they are a very tough team to beat. However, this team doesn't play mean or withe proverbial "chip on its shoulder". I guess i agree that it was good to not win in a blowout.

In my recollection, the end of the 1st half and the whole 2nd half against Ohio State is the best example of this team playing with a chip on its shoulder this season. Loved the energy and enthusiasm in that game. Would love to see it reappear in the tourney. I remember Quinn really asserting himself as a leader to push us to the win.

[Mal]

when we edged Miss. Valley State by seven. But ... the last 15 years, whenever we have won a round of 64 game by 12 or fewer we have failed to advance past the round of 16. Our four Final Four teams won, for example, by an average of 37 points (range: 29 to 43). But while past is prologue, it isn't destiny. This team can continue to win, I believe, if it shoots well and plays tough defense.

sagegrouse

Not a harbinger of a great run, I agree, although I think we played well enough in most respects to win by 20. Given the ridiculous three point shooting from Albany, some ticky tack fouls that I think hurt us more than them, and the fact that in any of our championship years Albany would probably have been a 14 seed, I'll take a 12 point win that was never in doubt and move on. We were very close to pulling out to an 18 or 20 point lead in the first half and breaking their spirit early - that it didn't come to fruition was a bit frustrating, but not the end of the world.

FWIW, in the last 20 years, 5 eventual champs have won by 15 or less in the first round (Arkansas, Arizona, Kentucky '98, Maryland, Syracuse). So I'll take that as a silver lining to hang onto.

Also, looking ahead at the rest of our bracket, as far as it goes: we've got Creighton and, should we prevail, likely Michigan State. Those teams are going to grind it out a good bit - they're not set up to have someone like Derrick Williams eat us alive while they score 55 points in a half. McDermott might rack up a total, but he does it methodically and they're not going to run us off the court. I don't get a sick feeling about either of them, and I like this team's chances in a tight game. Beyond that, I'm a little worried if I fast forward today's performance in a possible Louisville rematch, although then again one of the best things we had going today was Quinn's protection of the ball, so that could bode well.

[_Gary]

when we edged Miss. Valley State by seven. But ... the last 15 years, whenever we have won a round of 64 game by 12 or fewer we have failed to advance past the round of 16. Our four Final Four teams won, for example, by an average of 37 points (range: 29 to 43). But while past is prologue, it isn't destiny. This team can continue to win, I believe, if it shoots well and plays tough defense.

sagegrouse

Funny, I brought up the exact same stats (margin of victory in the first round for our championship teams) during the "In Game" thread and was chastised by some as being too negative. Having restated all that, I agree with your last two sentences. We absolutely can win this tournament.

[miramar]

We are finally going to see former Duke recruit Greg Echenique up close and personal in the Creighton game. If that seems like a long time ago, he transferred from Rutgers to Creighton and had some medical redshirt time, so he's been around for a while.

I think that Echenique is about as old as Shabazz Muhammad at this point, although I expect that he comes from a far more normal family.

[sbpollo]

Nice article about Mason!
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaab--duke-s-mason-plumlee-trying-to-revive-an-old-relic-203856353.html

[ns7]

Thanks very much!

Now that Kenpom is subscription for the good stuff, I can't take a detailed look at Duke's historical success on this point, but last time I looked we were awfully good on both aspects of 3 point defense. Interesting.

We're usually fantastic at limiting attempts but I believe we have had some average years on 3P% defense. Anyways, I thought the 3P defense was fine, we were just unlucky with them hitting the limited number of shots they had.

Note: for them to have tied or beaten us, they would have had to have gone 14-15 from 3, assuming a 30% OR for them on 3's.

[lotusland]

I wasn't making an excuse, I was offering an observation. IMO, RK looks sick.

I didn't notice that but my wife said the same thing and she is much more perceptive than I about kids not feeling well.

[MartyClark]

I didn't notice that but my wife said the same thing and she is much more perceptive than I about kids not feeling well.

I agree. More importantly, my wife, who only humors me on Duke basketball had the same observation. She also thought that the shot of Ryan getting off the bus showed he was limping a bit. I agreed. Neither of us are orthopedic surgeons but I think the foot is not quite right yet.

I'm not being negative, I think this kid is great.

[grad_devil]

I agree. More importantly, my wife, who only humors me on Duke basketball had the same observation. She also thought that the shot of Ryan getting off the bus showed he was limping a bit. I agreed. Neither of us are orthopedic surgeons but I think the foot is not quite right yet.

I'm not being negative, I think this kid is great.

I'm pretty sure the limp you and your wife saw when Kelly exited the bus was due to the protective boot he was wearing, FWIW.

[arnie]

I agree. More importantly, my wife, who only humors me on Duke basketball had the same observation. She also thought that the shot of Ryan getting off the bus showed he was limping a bit. I agreed. Neither of us are orthopedic surgeons but I think the foot is not quite right yet.

I'm not being negative, I think this kid is great.

Totally agree - he is slower and less assertive than in the Miami game and game after. Got to have him full speed Sunday. If not, I don't think we win. We're struggling and the rest of the teams we face are good.

[Durham Thunder]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaab--duke-s-mason-plumlee-trying-to-revive-an-old-relic-203856353.html

I'm happy for Mason being realized for his skills, but he's been doing this for a couple years. HELLO? Not news.

[gwlaw99]

if he can keep doing it, great, but I am going to cringe every time it goes up. It's better than the fade away I thought was gone until it appeared in the first half.

[moonpie23]

if he can keep doing it, great, but I am going to cringe every time it goes up. It's better than the fade away I thought was gone until it appeared in the first half.

i actually think he's getting a bead on it....

[Kedsy]

My opinion is that I would much rather face Cincinnati because it seems that a lot of teams are having trouble scoring and I would rather face a team with a bad offense and a good defense than vice versa.

After watching the Creighton/Cincinnati game, I'm really glad Creighton won. Sure, they could beat us (frankly they seem to be a reflection of Duke, a very similar team), but Cincinnati just terrified me. So quick, so strong, so athletic. A real nightmare. They just can't shoot, which I guess is why they lose games.


And Albany 14-16 from the line.. When we were up by 8 and missed ..and subsequently Curry got a layup.. That was to me the biggest play of the game.

Totally agree. That play by Seth was the most important play today.


After a portion of the 1st half where Ryan didn't seem to have game-speed, he began playing aggressive, smart, scrappy recovery- and disruptive- D, especially in the last minutes.

Yeah, I thought Ryan was clearly our best defender today. I don't know why people think he's sick or injured or are worried about his play. He played well today.


Remember when Suliamon used to penetrate and take high percentage shots?

You mean, like our last game, against Maryland?


DVR'd the game since I am traveling and will watch later tonight. From looking at the stats, were we letting them take 3's or were they just on fire on contested 3pt shots?


I haven't seen us double team on the perimeter that much all year. Was that part of the game plan? It was the cause of several open looks.

Yeah, we double-teamed them a lot, and it didn't really hinder them very much but it gave them wide open threes on their 2nd pass.


While I thought Ryan played a good game, it is troubling to see his outside shot is not zeroed in.

Ryan's just a streaky shooter. In his first six games this season, he shot 3 for 17 from three (23.5%). That included Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, VCU, Minnesota, and Louisville, and we won them all without him shooting great. He then his 28 of his next 40 threes (70%). It happened with no warning, but once he got dialed in, boy did he get dialed in. I'm not overly concerned.


Overall, it's hard for anybody to legitimately complain about our offense. We shot almost 60% for the game. To me it looked quite clear that Albany absolutely could not guard us. Our defense, however, was inconsistent. Ryan played well on D, but most everyone else's defensive effort was spotty. I'm not saying we played poor defense. We looked very strong early on D, we held them to 27% on two-point shots, and made a handful of really good defensive plays. But we also took some plays off. Hopefully that happens less and less as each game goes on.

[oldnavy]

people say "survive and advance" and I agree somewhat but our own data doesnt support that. From sagegrouse, great numbers:

""Victory Margins in Rounds of 64 and 32? We Have Data!

Originally Posted by sporthenry

I thought DBR had some stat where it was the other way around. A close first game usually signaled an early exit.
In the 12 Sweet Sixteens games since 1998, Duke has five wins and seven losses.

For the wins the average winning margin in the rounds of 64 and 32 was 28.7 points (36.8, 20.6).

For the losses the average winning margin was 11.3 points less: 17.4 points (25.3, 9.4).

Based on suggestive, although maybe not statistically significant, data, victory margin is linked to success.

I'll now look at correlation. The correlation coefficient between the victory margin in the Sweet Sixteen (positive or negative) with the sum of the victory margins in the rounds of 64 and 32 is a very healthy +0.71.

sagegrouse ""

*So margin in first round games is Defiinitely indicative of later success - as would be expected at least somewhat. I mean, do we really think ELton Brand / Jay Will / Boozer / Dunleavy / Battier teams were threatened early? I think they CRUSHED early opponents and thus went on to get to or win the title. It can be done but it is an indicator. Caveat is Albany was sick from 3pt land. Of course, take a few of those away and we still only win by 20 ish which still puts us in the loss column above. We have to close out better on 3pt shooters and not leave the baseline open. That was odd how open the baseline was on occasion - havent really seen that all year

The historical data is interesting. The problem I see is that it is looking at different teams and a slightly different era. There seems to be much more parity in CBB now than say just 10 years ago. I see Duke teams that are not quite as dominating as those in the past, and I see lower seeds that are not quite as weak as those in the past. I expect tighter games are a result of both factors and make drawing conclusions from the old data hard to do.

Wouldn't you have to make the assumption that the teams have the same magnitude of difference now as they did then for this correlation to have any predictive value?