Phase VI – First weekend of the NCAA Tournament [Archive]

View Full Version : Phase VI – First weekend of the NCAA Tournament

CDu

03-19-2013, 12:39 PM

Well, here we are. No more conference games. No more “3 games in 6 days”. No more “what will we do if we have to play 3 games in 3 days”. The big dance is here. And unfortunately we’ll be plenty rested up for it.

Before we dive in, I’m going to note some things right off the top. For those of you looking to discuss depth and minutes for Jefferson and the redshirt freshmen, this isn’t going to be the post for you. It has been said many times on this board, but I’ll say it again: come tournament time, Coach K shortens his rotation. If you weren’t getting significant minutes 2 weeks ago, you aren’t going to get them now. So barring injury or foul trouble, we’ll see a 6.5 man rotation. Marshall, Murphy, and Jefferson will surely have roles in the coming seasons, but their in-game roles for the next month are going to be minimal at best.

Also, since I won’t be talking about depth and since we have only one or two games in this phase, I’m going to shift the focus a bit to talk more about matchups. Otherwise, it would be a really short and pointless post.

1. How Duke gets its groove back: We were flying about as high as could be coming into the ACC tournament. What did we do then? Well, we all know, so I won’t repeat it. We need to regain the focus, intensity, and confidence that we had when we were beating Miami and burying UNC. We have had a week off to regroup, and hopefully the practices have helped right the ship. And hopefully the week off has given Kelly and Curry a chance to rest their legs/feet and get ready for the run. However…

2a. Will the extra time off leave us rusty? We had nearly a week off before the ACC tournament, and we came out very very flat. We also couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from deep. Was that a case of rust? I don’t know. But last weekend we certainly weren’t the same team that beat Miami and blew out UNC at UNC. We could probably survive the opening game even on an off-night. But if we come out shooting poorly like last game, it could at least get dicey. And if Albany gets hot? You just don’t want to take that risk.

2b. Will the elimination of college gyms spell doom for our shooting? It has long been said that the larger venues used for tournament games can create odd backdrops for shooters, resulting in some really good shooters putting up poor shooting performances. We certainly looked the part in Greensboro. Will the openness of the floor (especially behind the backboards) cause our team troubles from 3?

3. Where have you gone, Mr. Point Guard? When we were undefeated and rolling through the toughest early season schedule in the country, Quinn Cook established himself as an elite PG. He controlled tempo (often dribbling out the clock and driving for layups as we stall-balled our way to victories). But somewhere along the way (specifically around the time of the game at BC, Cook seemed to drift away from the role of playmaker into the role of scorer. In the last 10 games, Cook has averaged just 3.1 assists per game and 2.5 turnovers per game. He has only had 3 games in that stretch with more than 3 assists, and only 4 games with more than 2 assists. That assist average is way too low for a PG with the weapons we have, and thus the assist/turnover ratio is WAY too low. Now that Kelly is back, Cook needs to regain that PG mentality. We still need him to score some, but we need him to run the offense and get the ball to our other scorers in good scoring opportunities.

4. Get/keep Sulaimon going. As we all know, Sulaimon struggled down the stretch of the ACC season. He bounced back with a very solid effort against Maryland. We need him to be a threat offensively, and we need him to be a good presence defensively.

And with that, let’s move to the matchups:

Duke vs. Albany: This game is one of the rare times this year in which we’ll actually be as big or bigger than our opponent at most spots on the floor. Albany plays primarily a 3-guard lineup, with starters of 5’10”, 6’0”, 6’6”, 6’6”, and 6’10”. Off the bench, they go 5’9”, 6’4”, 6’8”, and 6’9”. Their best offensive players are two small guards (Black and Iati). Both are good 3-point shooters and capable of attacking off the dribble. Hooley off the bench is also a capable ballhandler/playmaker. They have only one capable post scorer, and at 6’6” he’ll be very overmatched inside. And aside from Black and Iati, they don’t shoot well from 3.

Like UVa, the Great Danes play at a snail’s pace. Unlike UVa, the Great Danes don’t take care of the basketball well (13 turnovers per game vs only 11 assists per game). This is a matchup we should win. We’re far better offensively and defensively. We’re better shooters. And we are better at protecting the ball than the Danes. Honestly, whereas last year we got an underseeded 15 seed in Lehigh, this year we got an overseeded Albany team. Unless we come out flat, we should win this game comfortably.

If we win, we’ll play either Cincy or Creighton. The two teams have very contrasting styles.

Duke vs Creighton: Creighton may seem like a one-man team, but that’s not really true. Yes, McDermott is a do-it-all scorer a la Wally Sczerbiak. He can shoot it from 3, he can score in the midrange, and he can score in the post. He’s also a good rebounder. He’ll be Kelly’s responsibility, and hopefully Kelly is up to the challenge defensively. McDermott is a very similar type of player to Kelly, so that will be an interesting matchup. But the Blue Jays do bring a bit more to the table than McDermott. Echenique is a big boy who can score a bit (not a ton though) and rebound a bit (not a ton though) inside. Gibbs is a tough, smart defender who also passes and shoots very well. Chatman is a quick little PG who also passes and shoots very well. They have 6 different players who shoot 38% or better from 3pt range, 5 of them over 40%. And only one of their main rotation players shoots under 74% from the line.

Creighton plays a slower pace (slightly faster than Albany, but still slow). They are a very experienced, very disciplined team that executes their offense well. They aren’t that good defensively though, and they don’t rebound very well. And there’s where we’d need to do our damage – scoring efficiently on offense and limiting second-chance opportunities. And we’ll have to be very disciplined in chasing their shooters off the 3point line.

Duke vs Cincy: Cincy is basically the opposite of Creighton. They defend extremely well, but struggle to score. They are a poor shooting team, with only 2 of their regulars topping 33% on 3s, and a team FT% of 65%. They don’t play fast, they don’t take care of the ball, and they don’t shoot well. But they are pretty big, pretty athletic, defend well, and rebound well. They have a big, athletic, shotblocking center who can't score. They have a variety of 6'7"/6'8" athletic forwards who rebound, and then they get what little scoring they get from their 3 starting guards. Wright, Parker, and Kilpatrick will attack the basket and rebound, and Parker can actually shoot too.

I think Cincy could potentially pose more of a threat than Creighton in that they can get physical defensively and they can pound the offensive glass. I could see their guards penetrating and throwing up bad shots, only to see them play volleyball on the glass. If we play them, we’ll have to be very diligent with the ball and very focused on our boxouts. If we can limit their second-chance points, we should be able to outscore them even given their defensive chops.

All in all, I think the opening weekend has layed out nicely for us. We should absolutely win on Friday. After that I can't decide whether I'd prefer Creighton (whom we're more athletic than but who shoots as well or better than us) or Cincy (who can't hit the broad side of a barn but can scrap and rebound and defend). Either way, we are better than both, and unless we play poorly (which as last weekend is evidence can happen) we should move to the second weekend and Phase VII. Let's hope we handle our business!

Kedsy

03-19-2013, 01:11 PM

DukeAlumBS

03-19-2013, 01:46 PM

Thank you my friend, nice plan for our team. I agree about Cook, have seen this myself. Regarding Lehigh, we were hurt and without Kelly then. Correct me if I am wrong? I do not feel bad about that game. It shows how important Kelly is to the team. Your points on Albany are great. Again, they are a very, very weak team. They lost to OSU, the only ranked team by 20 plus. They did beat Washington not ranked either. But, they play in a league that is extremely weak. SUNY StoneyBrook, Binghampton, Buffalo. They also play BU, UNH, UVM, and Maine. They have not tested themselves otherwise.
I feel very good we got them as a first round, gives us a chance to keep in stride. Go on to win at Creighton and Cincy I agree with this.

Have nice day,

Jimmy

jcastranio

03-19-2013, 02:02 PM

Trying to get into the team's collective heads a little bit:

The season-ending stretch -

UVA away in a brutal, physical game on the road.

Miami in an emotional rematch at home with Ryan's return. Goes to the wire.

Senior night against Va Tech. Emotional.

Final game - against UNC - emotional, great win.

Accolades - Duke is the team to beat - awesome - odds-on favorites, yada, yada, yada - for six days.

ACC tournament - flat game against a Terp team warmed up by a game the night before and shooting better than they have all season. Maybe we swung too far after UNC and then swung too far the other way after Maryland.

They are rested. About ten days of practice together. Everyone is healthy. Every expert is picking somebody other than Duke. So what is my prediction?

Elwood: It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tanks of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark and we're wearing sunglasses.
Jake: Hit it.

That should say it all

rtnorthrup

03-19-2013, 02:09 PM

Agree 100% with everything in the OP.

When we are making shots at our normal clip, no team outside a one seed will defeat us. Period.

When we are not making our normal shots, we become pedestrian and our frailties become magnified.

Cook is the key. Can he make us fast when we need to be fast and can he make us slow when we need to be slow. Can he get into the lane and create open looks for shooters. If so, we will be much more deadly. If he plays strong, we will be hard to beat.

I honestly think Kelly bounces back in a big way this weekend.

I too am more afraid of Cincy than Creighton. Cincy is a combination of Maryland (rebounding) and UVa (defensive intensity).

superdave

03-19-2013, 03:06 PM

Aack! No category for "Health"? :eek:

That aside, nice post CDu. The only thing I'd add is will our defense approach our early season excellence. We were a top ten defense (according to Pomeroy) when Ryan went down but so far we haven't gotten back there yet. Hopefully another week of practices will get us closer. It'd be nice to get there by Sunday.

I have been thinking about this for the past week. Duke shifted away from the defensive intensity they had earlier in the season. Mason played some matador defense in order to avoid foul trouble and it seemed like our perimeter pressure got worse. Some of that is likely due to ACC coaches being familiar with Duke's defensive schemes. A lot of that is due to Ryan's absence adding pressure to Mason to avoid fouls, and Mason not being to clean up the mess if a guard gets beat off the dribble.

I do not entirely know how to address this. I think having our guards sag a little more could reduce some of our rebounding issues and stop some of the dribble drives by our opponents. This worked well for us in 2010 with a bigger slower lineup. It could be used at times if we're up against quicker guards or strong offensive rebounding teams. We could also go after weak primary ballhandlers as necessary. I dont know the answers, but I know this is the key to us making a run or having a frustrating loss. Our defense has degraded over the season and it has to get better right now.

superdave

03-19-2013, 03:12 PM

2a. Will the extra time off leave us rusty? We had nearly a week off before the ACC tournament, and we came out very very flat. We also couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from deep. Was that a case of rust? I don’t know. But last weekend we certainly weren’t the same team that beat Miami and blew out UNC at UNC. We could probably survive the opening game even on an off-night. But if we come out shooting poorly like last game, it could at least get dicey. And if Albany gets hot? You just don’t want to take that risk.

I think Albany is a good tuneup for us. In 2010, Duke ground through the ACCT then beat Pine Bluff by 29 then Cal by 15. I would expect Duke to start slow in either the Albany game, or if they should advance in the 2nd round game. These guys have not been on the court for live action a whole lot the past two weeks and it will show somewhere.

I would set the tone early by feeding Mason over and over. He'll either start hitting hooks or go to the foul line or find spot up shooters. Use him like you do the running game in football - play downhill, control the pace, make it seem inevitable.

This time of year is about survival. Go to your stringest asset - Mason Plumlee - until you have won. His success will make everyone else's life easier and will reduce the likelihood that our shooters start off cold and cannot get their confidence and rhythm going. Also, if our defense can revert back to November successes, that will sap the life out of our opponents too.

oldnavy

03-19-2013, 03:33 PM

Kedsy

03-19-2013, 03:34 PM

oldnavy

03-19-2013, 04:12 PM

I don't think it's entirely a myth. Different backgrounds often take some getting used to. That's why a lot of guys shoot better at home.

I can't say for certain that it is a myth, but it would be very hard to seperate the many, many confounders that affect shooting to see if the background was the cause of a poor shooting night (or day).

I do know however that there are too many examples of guys going on the road and blistering the home team for me to believe that it has much of a true impact.

It sounds like a good excuse if a team shoots bad, but I think there are a bunch of other reasons to explain a bad shooting night, and some times it is simply that you had a bad night shooting the ball.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

03-19-2013, 04:19 PM

I don't think it's entirely a myth. Different backgrounds often take some getting used to. That's why a lot of guys shoot better at home.

Makes me think of Hoosiers.

Honestly, this year, I don't know what to expect. It's rare that one game can shake my confidence so sharply, but I think most of us were feeling VERY good a week ago, and it's important to remind ourselves that this is the same team that compiled such a great resume prior to 3/12. I'm hoping that our boys have had a very intense and good week of practice and are focused on the prize. Here's the summary of what I will be looking for this weekend:

1) Ball movement on offense. I want to see the great inside/outside that we saw the last few games of the regular season that allowed Kelly et al to get free on the perimeter and Mason to get some great looks underneath. This team is still re-learning how to play with Kelly. At their best, they are a juggernaut on offense and can leave a team in their dust like UNC. When they get rattled, they seem to be looking for a leader.

2) Crashing the boards. One of the most impressive things to me about Kelly's return, was that he was everywhere. Whenever a loose ball was on the floor, Kelly was there too. This is the sort of leadership that inspires other players to put it all out there, and it's part of the hunger that is necessary to advance in March.

3) Senior leadership. Kelly, Curry, and Mason have all shown the potential to put this team on their back and/or keep them pointed in the right direction. However, they have also each disappeared for stretches. If these three guys can take a viewpoint of "my last games as a Devil," we will be a very tough out.

4) Health. I feel we are on borrowed time with our known injuries, and of course, anything can happen moving forward. I feel we did a great job on developing our bench such as it is, and Murphy, Jefferson, and others are ready to do better than spot duty if necessary. All have got the potential to put in a great tournament if needed, but aren't yet reliable replacements for our top 6 or 7.

I can't remember the last time that everything seemed so tenuous. If our boys play the way that we have seen them do early on and in flashes since January, we have a great chance of cutting down the nets. If things go a different way, we will be hard-pressed to make it to next weekend. This should be a phenomenal tournament in all regards.

Go Duke!

oldnavy

03-19-2013, 05:03 PM

Makes me think of Hoosiers.

Honestly, this year, I don't know what to expect. It's rare that one game can shake my confidence so sharply, but I think most of us were feeling VERY good a week ago, and it's important to remind ourselves that this is the same team that compiled such a great resume prior to 3/12. I'm hoping that our boys have had a very intense and good week of practice and are focused on the prize. Here's the summary of what I will be looking for this weekend:

1) Ball movement on offense. I want to see the great inside/outside that we saw the last few games of the regular season that allowed Kelly et al to get free on the perimeter and Mason to get some great looks underneath. This team is still re-learning how to play with Kelly. At their best, they are a juggernaut on offense and can leave a team in their dust like UNC. When they get rattled, they seem to be looking for a leader.

2) Crashing the boards. One of the most impressive things to me about Kelly's return, was that he was everywhere. Whenever a loose ball was on the floor, Kelly was there too. This is the sort of leadership that inspires other players to put it all out there, and it's part of the hunger that is necessary to advance in March.

3) Senior leadership. Kelly, Curry, and Mason have all shown the potential to put this team on their back and/or keep them pointed in the right direction. However, they have also each disappeared for stretches. If these three guys can take a viewpoint of "my last games as a Devil," we will be a very tough out.

4) Health. I feel we are on borrowed time with our known injuries, and of course, anything can happen moving forward. I feel we did a great job on developing our bench such as it is, and Murphy, Jefferson, and others are ready to do better than spot duty if necessary. All have got the potential to put in a great tournament if needed, but aren't yet reliable replacements for our top 6 or 7.

I can't remember the last time that everything seemed so tenuous. If our boys play the way that we have seen them do early on and in flashes since January, we have a great chance of cutting down the nets. If things go a different way, we will be hard-pressed to make it to next weekend. This should be a phenomenal tournament in all regards.

Go Duke!

Well there is a old saying that you can learn more from being in the valley than you can from being on the mountain top. Well we went into the valley against Md. If anyone can make it a good experience, Coach K can.

How many times over the 33 years, well no over the past 25 years has Duke lost back to back games? Last year is the most recent example, but as others have pointed out, we had just lost RK and were not used to playing without him.

Kedsy

03-19-2013, 05:19 PM

Well there is a old saying that you can learn more from being in the valley than you can from being on the mountain top. Well we went into the valley against Md. If anyone can make it a good experience, Coach K can.

How many times over the 33 years, well no over the past 25 years has Duke lost back to back games? Last year is the most recent example, but as others have pointed out, we had just lost RK and were not used to playing without him.

Well, I only went back 10 years, but we lost at least 2 in a row every year from 2003 to 2009, which comes out to 8 years in the past 10 (before this season). So I don't think it's all that uncommon for us. Remember, even in 1986 -- a season in which we only lost three games and one of them was the national championship game -- we still lost back-to-back games.

oldnavy

03-19-2013, 06:01 PM

Well, I only went back 10 years, but we lost at least 2 in a row every year from 2003 to 2009, which comes out to 8 years in the past 10 (before this season). So I don't think it's all that uncommon for us. Remember, even in 1986 -- a season in which we only lost three games and one of them was the national championship game -- we still lost back-to-back games.

Darn you and your facts! I wanted to belive it was a much rarer event! Oh well, let string together 6 big wins.

TruBlu

03-19-2013, 06:24 PM

Not sure that Greensboro is a good example of a big gym causing shooting problems after the UNC/Miami game (45/55% respectively from 3pt).

Plus I have always thought that was a myth. Good shooters seem to be able to shoot anywhere, even on an aircraft carrier because honestly if you are noticing anything except the rim, then you are not focused.

I just hope the guys all get the stroke back and keep it for 6 games!

Just curious, but has anyone ever seen any study (or done a study) on the effect that those awful lighted advertising banners (between the upper and lower stands) might have on shooting? Since most tournament games will be played a larger venues, most will probably have them.

For example, based on the reflections on the floor for televised games, the advertisements at UVA's arena seem to be particularly irritating. They also sometimes seem to flash faster and brighter when the visiting team has the ball. Perhaps it is just a coincidence, but my rather shallow and brief look at statistics for visiting teams at UVA shows a drastic fall-off in their shooting percentages from their norm. As a separate question, I am curious as to whether UVA practices with those lights flashing.

I have noticed that in Cameron, the advertising banner lights at court side are cut off during live action. Seems that some "careful manipulation" of these lights at other courts, especially behind the baskets, could have an influence on visiting teams shooting.

(As a disclaimer, while I am curious about the above, please keep in mind that I have spotlights in my backyard to help illuminate those pesky black helicopters.)

78Devil

03-19-2013, 06:33 PM

I appreciate this summary, but I am also so surprised in the subsequent posts on this and other threads by how "high" everyone was on our status going into the ACC tournament. I never saw that. We lost to Maryland and Virginia away -- two teams that aren't that good by national standards. We didn't look great in Boston. We beat Miami at home -- barely and only after a record night by Ryan Kelly. Anything less and we lose. While we beat VTech pretty easily, that's not a huge accomplishment. And then we go and win against Carolina -- which was a wonderful moment but not the big achievement it would be in most years. While we won by double digits, they played us pretty even after our opening punch in their mouth. Then, of course, we stunk it up against Maryland again. I think we are so used to our ACC foes being good that we over-rate the wins against them this year, and under-rate our losses.

But the bigger thing is our lack of intensity and consistancy. Until this team is able to show more consistancy, I don't think they will make a deep run. And consistancy starts with defense. People are making comparisons to 2010. But I don't see that. For example, never underestimate the role of Lance Thomas in 2010. I saw the games in the regionals in Houston, and he was so huge in those results. We don't have that level of defensive ability or mindset, and I think that is what ensures consistancy in March. This sounds stupid, but most of our guys almost seem too laid back and genuinely nice to have the killer instinct you need to have in order to do what we are asking of them (ok, I know TT isn't in this category!). But Seth and Mason seem to be. I don't see that "I will not let this team lose" mentality. We do have offensive talent, though, and we will see how far talent by itself can make up for those weaknesses.

I hope -- oh how MUCH I hope -- I am wrong. But I am trying to be realistic. My goal is for us to make sure we (a) get out of this weekend without losing, and (b) play a damn good game against our foe(s) in the next weekend, whether we win or lose. If we go farther than that, I will gladly eat my words and take penance for my lack of faith.

NSDukeFan

03-19-2013, 06:36 PM

Darn you and your facts! I wanted to belive it was a much rarer event! Oh well, let string together 6 big wins.

The good news is I bet Duke has likely won at least 6 games in a row as many times as they have lost 2 in a row lately. I am hoping for three more two in a row streaks this season.

roywhite

03-19-2013, 08:04 PM

To take a broad view, what team would not want to have the following going into the tournament:
Seniors
Shooting
Coaching

Duke certainly is near the top in all 3 areas:
Kelly, Mason, and Seth
Over 40% from 3-pt and many who can take those shots
Coach K -- all-time winningest coach in NCAA tournament

As long as it's a single-loss format, you never can say for sure, but I like our chances.

NYBri

03-19-2013, 08:15 PM

The only team who can beat us is us. We have proven we can beat everyone in the field. The only team who can beat us is us ... And that only happens if we don't show up.

Newton_14

03-19-2013, 09:58 PM

1. How Duke gets its groove back: We were flying about as high as could be coming into the ACC tournament. What did we do then? Well, we all know, so I won’t repeat it. We need to regain the focus, intensity, and confidence that we had when we were beating Miami and burying UNC. We have had a week off to regroup, and hopefully the practices have helped right the ship. And hopefully the week off has given Kelly and Curry a chance to rest their legs/feet and get ready for the run. However…

2a. Will the extra time off leave us rusty? We had nearly a week off before the ACC tournament, and we came out very very flat. We also couldn't’t hit the broad side of a barn from deep. Was that a case of rust? I don’t know. But last weekend we certainly weren’t the same team that beat Miami and blew out UNC at UNC. We could probably survive the opening game even on an off-night. But if we come out shooting poorly like last game, it could at least get dicey. And if Albany gets hot? You just don’t want to take that risk.

2b. Will the elimination of college gyms spell doom for our shooting? It has long been said that the larger venues used for tournament games can create odd backdrops for shooters, resulting in some really good shooters putting up poor shooting performances. We certainly looked the part in Greensboro. Will the openness of the floor (especially behind the backboards) cause our team troubles from 3?

Great write up CDu. I wanted to address these 3 together. First, regarding getting the groove back. I did not feel we came out flat against the Twerps. I felt Maryland came out with a ton of energy playing "out of their minds" aggressive in your face defense (more on that in a sec) that was very disruptive, combined with a shooting touch from everywhere on the floor that is nothing like Maryland has shown an ability to do at any time this season. Thus, we were getting "knocked back" on both sides of the floor. Our guys response to that was nothing short of bizarre. It wasn't really "flatness", as we matched their energy initially, but the problem was how we used that energy. During that initial stretch at the start, before and after K's quick timeout, we made some of the most boneheaded plays I have never seen this years team make at all in any previous game. Hustle plays screwed up by horrible decisions, horrible passes, horrible shots. It was nothing like we had seen this year. We never ever got into our normal rhythm on offense or really on defense. It wasn't really "panic" either, at least not early on. Panic did set in between the 11 minute mark and 6 minute mark in the 2nd half. I know Duke owns how they responded to the incredible high energy by Maryland, but heading into the Albany game, unless Albany can somehow play defense like Maryland did, and at the same time, shoot it lights out all over the floor, I feel our guys will get back on their normal game both offensively and defensively.

Regarding "hitting the broad side of the barn" comment I bold-ed above: I did not see that as cold shooting on our part, and it certainly wasn't the arena. Greensboro is a great place to shoot. Just re-watch the Miami/UNC game. I felt almost every single outside shot taken last Friday by anyone not named Rasheed Suliamon, was a bad shot. Almost every 3 by the non-Rasheed players, was either rushed, taken out of the normal rhythm of the offense, or not an open enough look to warrant shooting it. When Duke (or anyone else for that matter) takes shots of that nature, they miss a very large percentage of the time. Part of that was great Maryland defense, and part was poor execution and/or lack of patience and the failure to move the ball well enough with passing and dribble drive to create open looks.

With all of that, I am not worried about shooting in the tourney, provided we take good, "Duke" shots. All shooters go through cold spells at times, but when this team takes good shots they normally hit a good percentage, especially Ryan, Seth, and Rasheed. We just need to space the floor well, feed the beast inside so he can punish with points in the paint, and run the offense efficiently enough to create good looks for the guys on the perimeter.

4. Get/keep Sulaimon going
As we all know, Sulaimon struggled down the stretch of the ACC season. He bounced back with a very solid effort against Maryland. We need him to be a threat offensively, and we need him to be a good presence defensively.
I stated this in the pre-game thread but will restate here because it is important. Rasheed has to start. I know we ran UNC with him coming off the bench, but the team that ran the early season table had a solid Rasheed Suliamon starting on the wing, and the starting 5 developed great chemistry and gelled, while using Tyler and Josh as the tough bruise brothers coming off the bench giving high energy, good defense, and toughness. That unit of 7 guys is hard to deal with when playing at a high level. We need that mojo back to make this run to Atlanta.

Duke vs. Albany: This game is one of the rare times this year in which we’ll actually be as big or bigger than our opponent at most spots on the floor. Albany plays primarily a 3-guard lineup, with starters of 5’10”, 6’0”, 6’6”, 6’6”, and 6’10”. Off the bench, they go 5’9”, 6’4”, 6’8”, and 6’9”. Their best offensive players are two small guards (Black and Iati). Both are good 3-point shooters and capable of attacking off the dribble. Hooley off the bench is also a capable ballhandler/playmaker. They have only one capable post scorer, and at 6’6” he’ll be very overmatched inside. And aside from Black and Iati, they don’t shoot well from 3.

Like UVa, the Great Danes play at a snail’s pace. Unlike UVa, the Great Danes don’t take care of the basketball well (13 turnovers per game vs only 11 assists per game). This is a matchup we should win. We’re far better offensively and defensively. We’re better shooters. And we are better at protecting the ball than the Danes. Honestly, whereas last year we got an underseeded 15 seed in Lehigh, this year we got an overseeded Albany team. Unless we come out flat, we should win this game comfortably.

If we win, we’ll play either Cincy or Creighton. The two teams have very contrasting styles.

I know you had to mention the other teams as this Phase covers the entire weekend, but I deleted them. For me right now is 100% about Albany. (yes I know it does not matter to some if fans look ahead yada yada) I suffered the Lehigh debacle in person, and never want that feeling again be it in the arena with the guys, or watching from the recliner!

The guys need to value every possession right out of the gate, focusing on great team defense with solid rotations and help defense. Make Albany take tough, contested shots, limiting them to one attempt. On the other side, limit turnovers, run and execute the offense to create good looks. Establish Mason down low early and often, and be determined to put Albany away early, keeping the collective foot on their throat from opening tip to final horn. Never letting up no matter how big the lead is.

ArtVandelay

03-19-2013, 10:59 PM

I think Cincy could potentially pose more of a threat than Creighton in that they can get physical defensively and they can pound the offensive glass. I could see their guards penetrating and throwing up bad shots, only to see them play volleyball on the glass. If we play them, we’ll have to be very diligent with the ball and very focused on our boxouts. If we can limit their second-chance points, we should be able to outscore them even given their defensive chops.

Thanks for this round-up, CDu. Great stuff, as usual. I have seen very little of either Creighton or Cincy this year. Judging from their schedules alone, Cincy seems to have the more impressive resume and is the team I'd rather not play. Wins over Oregon, at Pitt, and home against Marquette show that they can beat solid (if unspectacular) teams. But they also have some close losses to the likes of New Mexico and Syracuse, so they've also shown repeatedly that they can hang with top teams. On the other hand, they've gotten pasted by good teams like Notre Dame and Georgetown on several occasions. Basically, they seem inconsistent.

Creighton, meanwhile, beat Wisconsin early in the season and won at Cal, but doesn't really appear to have been tested since. That said, the fact that Ken Pom has Creighton as a bit of an under-seeded 7 gives me pause, as does the fact that McDermott has the Bootsy factor (aka the Dez Wells factor a/k/a the Joe Harris factor) where he is a good enough player who could go bananas and carry them.

On balance, I think the team that has consistently played against elite competition and shown the ability to play with them on any given day is scarier. Creighton may not be prepared for our combination of skill and athleticism.

Bob Green

03-20-2013, 08:49 AM

CDu, Thanks for the great Phase VI Report!

1. How Duke gets its groove back: ...And hopefully the week off has given Kelly and Curry a chance to rest their legs/feet and get ready for the run.

Shouldn't this have been the Health category? Seriously, I believe "Duke gets its groove back" by staying healthy and keeping the same 7 or 8 players on the court playing their normal roles in the rotation. The reintegration of Ryan Kelly into the team persona must continue.

2a. Will the extra time off leave us rusty? We had nearly a week off before the ACC tournament, and we came out very very flat. We also couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from deep. Was that a case of rust? I don’t know.

This is a big concern. Coach Krzyzewski stated he wasn't going to take it easy on the team so I hope he doesn't go overboard with hard practices. I was listening to ESPN Radio the other day and Coach Knight stated the number one mistake some coaches will make is to over practice. He stated every team has 30+ games under their belt so fine tuning should be the objective.

3. Where have you gone, Mr. Point Guard? When we were undefeated and rolling through the toughest early season schedule in the country, Quinn Cook established himself as an elite PG...Now that Kelly is back, Cook needs to regain that PG mentality. We still need him to score some, but we need him to run the offense and get the ball to our other scorers in good scoring opportunities.

Cook focusing on running the offense and distributing the basketball is another function of reintegrating Kelly into the team persona.

4. Get/keep Sulaimon going. As we all know, Sulaimon struggled down the stretch of the ACC season. He bounced back with a very solid effort against Maryland. We need him to be a threat offensively, and we need him to be a good presence defensively.

As long as Kelly and Curry are healthy, I believe we need Sulaimon's defense more than his offense. Sulaimon is our best perimeter defender and is a guy that can create turnovers, which gives us extra offensive possessions. I am not undervaluing his ability to contribute on offense, and having another scoring option on the court is always a good thing, I just believe the team needs Sulaimon on the court, playing major minutes, with a defense first attitude.

slower

03-20-2013, 09:11 AM

Rasheed has to start.

This, totally. Not at the complete expense of Tyler, of course, because he invariably brings some value. But we're not getting to the Final Four without Sheed making a big contribution. And, to win it all, it seems to me that we have to get SOMETHING out of Amile. God love Josh - he'll get in there and give you the basics, but he's an offensive liability - any time he hoists a jump shot, my soul dies a little bit - and he just flat out doesn't bring nearly as many positives as Amile.

Look, we all know that K loves Tyler and Josh, and we all know why. But this is a one-and-out game now. We may not have the luxury of giving Sheed and Amile "teaching moments" or sitting them so they can learn from the more-experienced vets. We're not getting all the way there without both of them in the mix.

We'll need ALL our weapons. When Seth and/or Ryan are hot, it's a thing of beauty. But that's never guaranteed, and will certainly NOT happen for 6 straight games. Mason is somewhat more predictable, but he may or may not hit his 17/10 average when it counts. Quinn's not going to lay a total egg in most games. Tyler will usually give a little bit of value, sometimes more. Sheed is the wildcard. With Good Sheed, we CAN beat anybody. You just can't sit him for Tyler at this point in the season. And, for God's sake, you CANNOT sit Amile for a whole game and play Josh. That is insanity. Amile deserves his floor time - give it to him.

Saratoga2

03-20-2013, 10:12 AM

Quinn is getting criticized for not running the game as he did earlier in the season. Not getting the assists versus having more turnovers than in the past and also for putting his scorinng as a higher priority.

In the Maryland game he could pass to Seth, who was well guarded and very cold shooting in the first half. When Rasheed was in, he did a lot to work for his own shot, so it is hard to get an assist there. Ryan was absolutely cold shooting (form problems?) so no assist there. Tyler and Josh are not going to score a lot, so not much chance for assists there. Then there was Mason who was getting pretty well defended but still managed 19 points but also 4 turnovers. So it wasn't until the second half when Quinn really had opportunities to make assists with Seth heating up. Ryan never did. Quinn's assist total will improve with Ryan hitting his shots and Rasheed and Seth on their games. Also if the team defense can cause turnovers and get some break opportunities.

In my view defense is the key to our success. We didn't slow Dez down at all and Ryan was one and one on him and that was a no win situation. Mason still will not challenge shots. Tyler is the most aggressive of our guards but he also gives up fouls at a high rate. What to do? Pickup the defense in closer to the basket. Start Rasheed and give him the bulk of the time as he has the size and quickness needed to content against a bigger guard. Light a fire under Mason and tell him that he must challenge shots, if only by putting his hand up. No backing away.

The idea of keeping the lineup shortened is okay, but when matchups indicate that Amile is a better choice (length, quickness) shorten it in his favor instead of Josh.

77devil

03-20-2013, 10:39 AM

CDu

03-20-2013, 11:02 AM

Quinn is getting criticized for not running the game as he did earlier in the season. Not getting the assists versus having more turnovers than in the past and also for putting his scorinng as a higher priority.

In the Maryland game he could pass to Seth, who was well guarded and very cold shooting in the first half. When Rasheed was in, he did a lot to work for his own shot, so it is hard to get an assist there. Ryan was absolutely cold shooting (form problems?) so no assist there. Tyler and Josh are not going to score a lot, so not much chance for assists there. Then there was Mason who was getting pretty well defended but still managed 19 points but also 4 turnovers. So it wasn't until the second half when Quinn really had opportunities to make assists with Seth heating up. Ryan never did. Quinn's assist total will improve with Ryan hitting his shots and Rasheed and Seth on their games. Also if the team defense can cause turnovers and get some break opportunities.

The role of a PG is to create easier scoring opportunities for the team. Simply passing to a guy who is already open isn't terribly noteworthy, so if Cook was stockpiling assists that way I wouldn't be impressed. But there has been a noticeable dropoff in Cook's ability/efforts to penetrate and create open shots for guys like Mason, Curry, Sulaimon, and Kelly. Earlier in the season, Cook seemed to have the game on a string. In the last third of the season or so, he's looked much more shaky and much less poised at PG. And as a result, guys like Curry, Mason, and Sulaimon are having to work harder for their bu

In my view defense is the key to our success. We didn't slow Dez down at all and Ryan was one and one on him and that was a no win situation. Mason still will not challenge shots. Tyler is the most aggressive of our guards but he also gives up fouls at a high rate. What to do? Pickup the defense in closer to the basket. Start Rasheed and give him the bulk of the time as he has the size and quickness needed to content against a bigger guard. Light a fire under Mason and tell him that he must challenge shots, if only by putting his hand up. No backing away.

I do agree that defense will be a huge key. And I agree that perhaps extended on-ball pressure is not the way we should defend this year, especially given our guards' inability to stay in front of their man out there and Mason's tentativeness defensively inside.

jv001

03-20-2013, 11:07 AM

Great Phase CDU. I agree with all your assestments. Especially Quinn getting back to being a distributor first and scorer 2nd. I do believe that Quinn was instructed to shoot more in Kelly's absence. When we were playing the VCUs, OSU, Minn at the beginning of the year, Quinn was getting into the lane and dishing and he seemed to play better on the ball defense. Now he's spending a lot of time with needless dribbling. Quinn has the potential to be an elite point guard and I look for a good NCAAT from QC. I heard Coach K on the Tim Brando Show yesterday say that he went away from the upcoming weekend being a tournament in it's self to each game is a national championship game. I like that attitude to keep the energy and focus up. However he did say that the concept worked well in 2010, but not so good last year. GoDuke!

Bob Green

03-20-2013, 12:16 PM

Quinn is getting criticized for not running the game as he did earlier in the season. Not getting the assists versus having more turnovers than in the past and also for putting his scoring as a higher priority.

I believe criticized is inaccurate. Cook's assists to turnover ratio and scoring is being discussed within the context of wins and losses and what Duke needs to do in order to achieve success in the first weekend of the NCAAT.

Now, whether or not those of us "discussing" know our butts from a hole in the ground is a different topic.

MCFinARL

03-20-2013, 01:17 PM

I believe criticized is inaccurate. Cook's assists to turnover ratio and scoring is being discussed within the context of wins and losses and what Duke needs to do in order to achieve success in the first weekend of the NCAAT.

Now, whether or not those of us "discussing" know our butts from a hole in the ground is a different topic.

I'm willing to bet a lot of money that you do--but of course, that is quite different from knowing anything about point guards. ;)

oldnavy

03-20-2013, 04:58 PM

Darn you and your facts! I wanted to belive it was a much rarer event! Oh well, let string together 6 big wins.

Now that I have thought a little about this, I believe the better question is what is our record following a loss? And then to drill down even further, what is our record after a loss when we play a non-top 25 team?

I don't want anyone to go back and do the research (unless someone is just crazy about databases), but I would be willing to bet that our winning percentage in games immediately following a loss is pretty high (>80%??).

pfrduke

03-20-2013, 05:55 PM

Now that I have thought a little about this, I believe the better question is what is our record following a loss? And then to drill down even further, what is our record after a loss when we play a non-top 25 team?

I don't want anyone to go back and do the research (unless someone is just crazy about databases), but I would be willing to bet that our winning percentage in games immediately following a loss is pretty high (>80%??).

From 2003-2013, our record following losses is 40-14. If you exclude 2007 and its pair of 4-game losing streaks (we were 3-7 after losses in 2007), it's 37-7.

The list of teams to hand us back-to-back (or more) losses:

NC State - 2003 (following Maryland loss)
Wake Forest - 2004 (following NC State loss)
Virginia Tech - 2005 (following Maryland loss)
UNC - 2006 (following FSU loss)
Georgia Tech - 2007 (following Virginia Tech loss)
Florida State - 2007 (following Virginia loss)
UNC - 2007 (following FSU loss)
Maryland - 2007 (following UNC loss)
UNC - 2007 (following Maryland loss)
NC State - 2007 (following UNC loss)
VCU - 2007 (following NC State loss)
Miami - 2008 (following Wake Forest loss)
Boston College - 2009 (following UNC loss)
Lehigh - 2012 (following FSU loss)

The only non-ACC opponents beat us in games coming off of a loss are the two first-round NCAA exits (which is not surprising given both our non-conference success in the past 11 seasons (11 total losses, not counting the NCAAT) and the presence of lighter opponents in the pre-conference schedule).

Kedsy

03-21-2013, 12:02 AM

From 2003-2013, our record following losses is 40-14. If you exclude 2007 and its pair of 4-game losing streaks (we were 3-7 after losses in 2007), it's 37-7.

So excluding 2007, that makes our wining percentage after losses .841, while our overall winning percentage from 2003 to 2013 (excluding 2007) is a virtually identical .837. Including 2007, the numbers are .741 after losses vs. .822 overall. So, depending on whether you count 2007 or not, in the past 10 years (really almost 11) we either win at the same rate after a loss as we do otherwise, or at a worse rate.

So while I'm sure you could parse the data in some way to make it look better, I just don't see a lot of comfort to be taken here. We don't appear to perform better after a loss than we do normally.

oldnavy

03-21-2013, 09:02 AM

So excluding 2007, that makes our wining percentage after losses .841, while our overall winning percentage from 2003 to 2013 (excluding 2007) is a virtually identical .837. Including 2007, the numbers are .741 after losses vs. .822 overall. So, depending on whether you count 2007 or not, in the past 10 years (really almost 11) we either win at the same rate after a loss as we do otherwise, or at a worse rate.

So while I'm sure you could parse the data in some way to make it look better, I just don't see a lot of comfort to be taken here. We don't appear to perform better after a loss than we do normally.

Ok, I guess there is no substance to my perception that we did better after losses, the numbers in this case don't lie. The good news is that our winning percentage is pretty good no matter how we look at it!

Let's hope that it is 100% for the remainder of this season.

MCFinARL

03-21-2013, 09:44 AM

Ok, I guess there is no substance to my perception that we did better after losses, the numbers in this case don't lie. The good news is that our winning percentage is pretty good no matter how we look at it!

Let's hope that it is 100% for the remainder of this season.

I think that perception comes from the observation, often made, that Duke seldom loses two in a row. That is true--but as Kedsy has demonstrated, that is because Duke seldom loses, not because there is any magic about avoiding back-to-back losses. Maybe we will have to stop looking for good omens and just wait for the game. Sigh....

_Gary

03-21-2013, 09:58 AM

Maybe we will have to stop looking for good omens and just wait for the game. Sigh....

This! In spades!!!

I've come to the place in my sports viewing life where I've stopped trying to figure out what is or isn't a favorable matchup for Duke. Or whether or not any of the "stats" (something I don't put a lot of stock in) work in our favor. At this point it's all about coming out and playing your game and being better than the other guy. I've seen Duke win games I was really nervous about and lose games I thought were going to be automatic. So at this point I'm not worried about matchups. I just want to see my team play to their potential and then let the chips fall where they may. If they do that, I like our chances to win #5.

Go Duke!

tbyers11

03-21-2013, 10:04 AM

From 2003-2013, our record following losses is 40-14. If you exclude 2007 and its pair of 4-game losing streaks (we were 3-7 after losses in 2007), it's 37-7.

The list of teams to hand us back-to-back (or more) losses:

NC State - 2003 (following Maryland loss)
Wake Forest - 2004 (following NC State loss)
Virginia Tech - 2005 (following Maryland loss)
UNC - 2006 (following FSU loss)
Georgia Tech - 2007 (following Virginia Tech loss)
Florida State - 2007 (following Virginia loss)
UNC - 2007 (following FSU loss)
Maryland - 2007 (following UNC loss)
UNC - 2007 (following Maryland loss)
NC State - 2007 (following UNC loss)
VCU - 2007 (following NC State loss)
Miami - 2008 (following Wake Forest loss)
Boston College - 2009 (following UNC loss)
Lehigh - 2012 (following FSU loss)

The only non-ACC opponents beat us in games coming off of a loss are the two first-round NCAA exits (which is not surprising given both our non-conference success in the past 11 seasons (11 total losses, not counting the NCAAT) and the presence of lighter opponents in the pre-conference schedule).

IIRC, the not losing back-to-back games stat has been trotted out by ESPN in various telecasts. They typically stated that we had not lost back-to-back regular season games (or conference games, I don't remember) since 2010. That statement is fact but is obviously working from a fairly small sample size (4 seasons) and skewing the data to not include the FSU/Lehigh losses last year.

Agree with the sentiment that the games need to start soon so we can stop trying to parse random statistics in our favor ;) Thankfully, it is about 2 hours until the MSU-Valpo tip.

superdave

03-25-2013, 10:55 AM

Does anyone have our defensive efficiency numbers (points per possession) from the Creighton game? Was that our best of the season? It felt pretty good.

Troublemaker

03-25-2013, 10:59 AM

Does anyone have our defensive efficiency numbers (points per possession) from the Creighton game? Was that our best of the season? It felt pretty good.

77.6, which is fifth-best of the season. The others were Cornell, Clemson, Delaware, Elon.

So if you factor in quality of opponent/offense, it is probably our best defensive effort of the season.

tbyers11

03-25-2013, 11:01 AM

Does anyone have our defensive efficiency numbers (points per possession) from the Creighton game? Was that our best of the season? It felt pretty good.

According to KenPom, we our defensive efficiency was 77.6 (pts/100 possessions). Our only better games this season were Delaware, Cornell, Elon and Clemson (65.2, 63.6, 77.5 and 64.9, respectively). The 77.6 number was also Creighton's worst offensive showing by far. They only scored less than 99.0 twice all year (90.2 @ Ind St and 83.9 at N Iowa, both losses) before last night.

vick

03-25-2013, 11:42 AM

Here is Duke's defensive efficiency for each game compared with the opponent Kenpom offensive rating. I think it's fair to say this was our best defensive outing--it really jumps off the page, actually.

3299

CDu

03-25-2013, 11:42 AM

To put a bow on this successful phase, let me critique myself.

Before we dive in, I’m going to note some things right off the top. For those of you looking to discuss depth and minutes for Jefferson and the redshirt freshmen, this isn’t going to be the post for you. It has been said many times on this board, but I’ll say it again: come tournament time, Coach K shortens his rotation. If you weren’t getting significant minutes 2 weeks ago, you aren’t going to get them now. So barring injury or foul trouble, we’ll see a 6.5 man rotation. Marshall, Murphy, and Jefferson will surely have roles in the coming seasons, but their in-game roles for the next month are going to be minimal at best.

Well, foul trouble reared its head in a BIG way on Sunday, which meant that Jefferson got a good chunk of minutes. Thankfully he stepped up in a big way defensively on McDermott. He played a fantastic game. Hopefully he builds off this performance, as he's a much more dangerous offensive player than Hairston.

2a. Will the extra time off leave us rusty?
2b. Will the elimination of college gyms spell doom for our shooting?

This was one of the few issues that didn't go well for us. We didn't shoot great against Albany (at least not on jumpshots), and we shot terribly against Creighton. Hopefully that does not continue this weekend.

3. Where have you gone, Mr. Point Guard?

Cook played very well in the Albany game. He was okay in the Creighton game, but left a lot of room for improvement. He's still not quite back to what he was doing early in the season. Hopefully he's saving his best for last.

4. Get/keep Sulaimon going.

Sulaimon was quiet against Albany, but he came up in a big way against Creighton.

Saratoga2

03-25-2013, 01:08 PM

To put a bow on this successful phase, let me critique myself.

Well, foul trouble reared its head in a BIG way on Sunday, which meant that Jefferson got a good chunk of minutes. Thankfully he stepped up in a big way defensively on McDermott. He played a fantastic game. Hopefully he builds off this performance, as he's a much more dangerous offensive player than Hairston.

This was one of the few issues that didn't go well for us. We didn't shoot great against Albany (at least not on jumpshots), and we shot terribly against Creighton. Hopefully that does not continue this weekend.

Cook played very well in the Albany game. He was okay in the Creighton game, but left a lot of room for improvement. He's still not quite back to what he was doing early in the season. Hopefully he's saving his best for last.

Sulaimon was quiet against Albany, but he came up in a big way against Creighton.

While there were a lot of people saying we should shorten our rotation to 7 players going into the tourney, others were wanting to see Amile in particular get an opportunity where matchups allowed. Let us hope that coach K agrees and continues to get Amile in where his combination of length and athletic ability contributes to the team.

Shooting has been and issue for us for several games. Sometimes we have had the wrong people taking critical shots but we have also had Ryan totally off his shooting game. Maybe he needs to work on that aspect this week. Getting him back as a serious contributer makes the team so much more dangerous.

We have been primarily a half court team. Quinn will be critical to our success in that he has to look for penetration, lob passes and must avoid turnovers. He is a very good point guard and if he also poses a scoring threat it will make his assists easier to get.

Rasheed will need to take what the defense will give him. He wont always be against people he can outplay as much as he was albe to last night.

superdave

03-25-2013, 01:39 PM

In 2010, we shot fairly poorly for a few games in the tournament on our way to the title.

From 3:
Vs. Butler 5-17
vs. WVU 13-25
vs Baylor 11-23
vs Purdue 6-15
vs Cal 3-17
vs APB 6-13

Combined 44-110 or 40%.

40% is great overall, but 29% in the title game usually makes you the runner up.

The timing of a bad shooting game means everything. Seth shot poorly last night, but our defense was great. Hopefully with some rest he's on target. Also it would be nice to have Ryan carry us for a game, or even for a half, this coming weekend. If shots are not falling, we better get into the paint a lot and get some fouls on Sparty. Here's hoping our defense continues at a high level.

ice-9

03-26-2013, 02:55 PM

CDu

03-26-2013, 03:01 PM

But we also have an elite offensive rebounder in Zoubek in 2010 -- I don't think our margin of error is that large. We'll likely have to shoot better against the likes of Michigan St and Louisville.

And note that in the Sweet-16, Elite-8, and Final Four games, we shot 40% or better from 3-point range (50% over the Elite-8 and Final Four). That, combined with the offensive rebounding, made us VERY tough to beat.

We were then fortunate to face one of the worst championship game teams (it was a scrappy, experienced, well-coached Butler team, but it was still a huge upset that Butler made the championship).

We'll not be so fortunate with our offensive rebounding, nor are we as good defensively, nor will we likely be so fortunate with the schedule of opponents. We do have a better post scoring option, which should help. But it'll probably take similarly good shooting games to advance to the championship this year.

dukelifer

03-27-2013, 06:49 AM

And note that in the Sweet-16, Elite-8, and Final Four games, we shot 40% or better from 3-point range (50% over the Elite-8 and Final Four). That, combined with the offensive rebounding, made us VERY tough to beat.

We were then fortunate to face one of the worst championship game teams (it was a scrappy, experienced, well-coached Butler team, but it was still a huge upset that Butler made the championship).

We'll not be so fortunate with our offensive rebounding, nor are we as good defensively, nor will we likely be so fortunate with the schedule of opponents. We do have a better post scoring option, which should help. But it'll probably take similarly good shooting games to advance to the championship this year.

Duke will need a very hot shooting game this weekend to get to the Final Four. They might grind one out against MSU but they may need an all cylinders game after that. Sometimes it takes one of those games in the run of 4