Who is your Final 4?

[DukeAlumBS]

My friends,
Lets get right to it, I am curious.
1. I have Duke beating Georgetown
2. I have Miami beating OSU.
My final is Duke winning the NCAA title game over Miami at a score of 74-68.
It is that time! Go Duke

Nice day ,
Jimmy

[mr. synellinden]

Indiana
Kansas
Duke
New Mexico


Indiana and Duke in the final.

Duke gets #5.

[Jackson]

Duke, Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana. Duke beats Indiana in the final 74 to 65.

[David Bunkley]

Duke
Ohio State
Michigan
Miami

DUKE over Michigan for #5

LET'S GO DUKE!!!

[DukeAlumBS]

Nice pick , I hope this happens. We beat them nicely at home by 15 ish points last year.
I picked Miami more as a grunge match to get even, settle old score.
I like the Indiana picks over Miami. I feel Miami has been struggling recently.
Good luck my friends,

Jimmy

[superdave]

I need another day to contemplate Duke-Louisville and the West. The MD loss was discouraging but I always avoid the bandwagon team (Louisville).

Otherwise I've got Indiana and Florida.

[nocilla]

My friends,
Lets get right to it, I am curious.
1. I have Duke beating Georgetown
2. I have Miami beating OSU.
My final is Duke winning the NCAA title game over Miami at a score of 74-68.
It is that time! Go Duke

Nice day ,
Jimmy

You have your bracket sideways. Duke can't play Georgetown until the Championship game. Same for Miami and OSU. MW vs West and South vs East. So you should have Duke facing OSU and GU facing Miami.

[davekay1971]

Duke
OSU
Kansas
NC State (yeah, yeah, I know...)

[Ichabod Drain]

Duke
Gonzaga
Georgetown
Indiana

Duke over Georgetown in Final

[nocilla]

Duke
New Mexico
Michigan
Miami

Duke over Mich for #5.

[DownEastDevil]

Duke
Wisc.
Kansas
Miami

Duke over Miami in rubber match!

[Chris Randolph]

Midwest - Louisville
West - New Mexico
South - Florida
East - Indiana

Louisville over Indiana

[Blue Man]

Sorry but this is not the year for Duke to make it to the final four. Weak defense and Curry's leg is catching up with him. Hopefully Kelly will be 100% because he is still a 1/2 step slower than before the injury. But if he is not 100% that is just another kink in the armor. Only hope is for them to return to early season form. They peaked way to early and lost Kelly. That is a lot to rebound from.
You go to all the boards around the country and read them. All the top schools have their guys winning it all. Reality does not always make it to these fun places. Duke does not get past Sweet 16. May I eat these words a million times this summer.
Its Miami, KU, Indiana or Louisville for all the marbles.

[wallyman]

Sorry but this is not the year for Duke to make it to the final four. Weak defense and Curry's leg is catching up with him. Hopefully Kelly will be 100% because he is still a 1/2 step slower than before the injury. But if he is not 100% that is just another kink in the armor. Only hope is for them to return to early season form. They peaked way to early and lost Kelly. That is a lot to rebound from.
You go to all the boards around the country and read them. All the top schools have their guys winning it all. Reality does not always make it to these fun places. Duke does not get past Sweet 16. May I eat these words a million times this summer.
Its Miami, KU, Indiana or Louisville for all the marbles.


Of course, they do as well they should.

Duke
Gonzaga
Michigan
Miami

Duke wins

Playing Gonzaga and Miami in the Final 4 would be a true hoot.

[BigZ]

Duke, New Mexico, Kansas, and Miami. With Duke beating the U for number 5 !!!

[Chard]

Duke vs OSU on one side, UM vs UM on the other. Duke vs. Michigan for the title.

Meh, just a guess.

[JNort]

Duke
Ohio State
Michigan
Miami

Or

Duke
Ohio St
Michigan
Indiana

[Blue Man]

Of course, they do as well they should.

Duke
Gonzaga
Michigan
Miami

Duke wins

Playing Gonzaga and Miami in the Final 4 would be a true hoot.
Oh I forgot one more minus. MPIII never got enough time in this year to develop hence he will be of no help the rest of the season. He lost almost the first 3 months of the season and then games got tight with Kelly out so there was not way to put him in the rotation. Meanwhile Mason was getting pummeled out there and is obviously very tired at the end season.
Best thing that could have happened is they go home on Friday and get rest as this team is tired.

[CameronBlue]

Duke
Wisc
Kansas
Syracuse

K vs. Boeheim for the title. Youth will be served.

[BlueandWhite]

Oh I forgot one more minus. MPIII never got enough time in this year to develop hence he will be of no help the rest of the season. He lost almost the first 3 months of the season and then games got tight with Kelly out so there was not way to put him in the rotation. Meanwhile Mason was getting pummeled out there and is obviously very tired at the end season.
Best thing that could have happened is they go home on Friday and get rest as this team is tired.

Please, go away now & leave this board.

[Mal]

Please, go away now & leave this board.

Seriously. We lost one game with Kelly and Mason together in the lineup, and our problem is Marshall didn't develop?

I will give BlueandWhite the benefit of agreeing with (hoping for) the silver lining to our stinker of an effort on Friday being not playing two more high intensity games and instead resting for an entire week before Albany and Creighton/Cincy. This is a great year for us to make the Final Four: until the last game we played, most pundits were saying that with Kelly we were the most complete team out there, with solid guard play, experience, a dominant big man, a big man who can stretch a defense, and blah blah blah. We just beat down Carolina in Chapel Hill and hadn't lost since Kelly returned. And every team seeded higher than us has obvious, significant weaknesses that can be exploited by a number of teams.

Anyway:

Duke
Gonzaga
Michigan
Butler

Just to spite the naysayer condescending to tell us how wrongheaded it is that so many on the Duke Basketball Report would choose, you know, Duke, I'll go with...Duke. Over Michigan.

[Blue Man]

Please, go away now & leave this board.

OK I guess I cannot be a diehard Duke fan (which I am) but also look carefully at this team with its strengths and weaknesses. Duke is competitive at this level every single year. K has the best record in the NCAAs. But that does not translate into a NCAA championship every year. It would be ludicrous to think any program could do that. I am a local and have followed Duke all my life and love them. But just because I look at this year's team and see some weaknesses you ask me to leave! K may yet again perform one of his magic acts. They may come back rested and Mason stays out of foul trouble through the whole tourney and Curry's leg holds up and the holes in the defense (look at the games they have lost and it is defense in the middle) get plugged up and they hit all their 3s cause that is what it is going to take. Not blind love but eyes wide open Defense and weak side/off the ball help. And yes if Marshall had got a good amount of playing time he would have be a much better player today for it. Instead we have to wait to next year. If Mason gets in foul trouble you will not see MPIII in there. He is not ready.

[burnspbesq]

Duke, Gonzaga, VCU, Miami

VCU over Gonzaga for the title

[ice-9]

Duke (of course)
Arizona
Florida
Indiana

Arizona turns into a kitten outside the West and Duke advances easily into an epic game against the Hoosiers.

Coach K gets his fifth and I go get drunk after having won a million dollars in SI's bracket challenge. :p

[mderderi84]

Duke
New Mexico
Kansas
Indiana

Duke over Indiana in the Championship Game.

[DukeHLM'13]

Duke
Wisconsin
G-town
Indiana

Duke over IU 73-67 for #5 (which also starts a streak of 4 Titles in a row for Duke and K retires with 8 leaving behind riches for his successor)

[FerryFor50]

OK I guess I cannot be a diehard Duke fan (which I am) but also look carefully at this team with its strengths and weaknesses. Duke is competitive at this level every single year. K has the best record in the NCAAs. But that does not translate into a NCAA championship every year. It would be ludicrous to think any program could do that. I am a local and have followed Duke all my life and love them. But just because I look at this year's team and see some weaknesses you ask me to leave! K may yet again perform one of his magic acts. They may come back rested and Mason stays out of foul trouble through the whole tourney and Curry's leg holds up and the holes in the defense (look at the games they have lost and it is defense in the middle) get plugged up and they hit all their 3s cause that is what it is going to take. Not blind love but eyes wide open Defense and weak side/off the ball help. And yes if Marshall had got a good amount of playing time he would have be a much better player today for it. Instead we have to wait to next year. If Mason gets in foul trouble you will not see MPIII in there. He is not ready.

I don't think MP3 not playing much this year has any bearing on how Duke will fare in the tourny. The best he's brought is hustle, which for him, turns to fouls.

I don't know what empirical evidence you have that suggests Curry is slowing down. He destroyed UNC. He (like many Duke players) had a bad game against Maryland.

This Duke team has weaknesses. So does every other top seed. That's why they play the games.

It's no sillier to think your team will win it all than it is to assume they will lose in the second round.

[BlueandWhite]

OK I guess I cannot be a diehard Duke fan (which I am) but also look carefully at this team with its strengths and weaknesses. Duke is competitive at this level every single year. K has the best record in the NCAAs. But that does not translate into a NCAA championship every year. It would be ludicrous to think any program could do that. I am a local and have followed Duke all my life and love them. But just because I look at this year's team and see some weaknesses you ask me to leave! K may yet again perform one of his magic acts. They may come back rested and Mason stays out of foul trouble through the whole tourney and Curry's leg holds up and the holes in the defense (look at the games they have lost and it is defense in the middle) get plugged up and they hit all their 3s cause that is what it is going to take. Not blind love but eyes wide open Defense and weak side/off the ball help. And yes if Marshall had got a good amount of playing time he would have be a much better player today for it. Instead we have to wait to next year. If Mason gets in foul trouble you will not see MPIII in there. He is not ready.

Blue Man, I apologize for my initial response to your first post. It wasn't in line with what this board is about. I see that you're also a true blue Duke fan as I am & all of us are entitled to express our opinions on this board, making for great dialogue about Duke hoops.

Having said that: I do want to clarify that it was what you wrote about Duke going home Friday being a good thing, to get them more rest, that got me mad. I'm pretty sure that the entire team & staff didn't want to lose to MD -- they wanted to cut down those nets in Greensboro. So far the team has missed on two preseason goals, ACC regular season and tourney. They would not have been "worn down" by playing rematches against Carolina & Miami.

Final Four:
Duke, New Mexico, Michigan, Indiana
Duke 74, IU 73

Go Duke!

[ice-9]

I see a lot of picks for New Mexico, both here and in the media.

What's the deal with New Mexico? Why do you guys think they can beat Gonzaga, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Arizona? (I'm not even going to ask about K-State since I think they're overrated.)

[superdave]

I see a lot of picks for New Mexico, both here and in the media.

What's the deal with New Mexico? Why do you guys think they can beat Gonzaga, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Arizona? (I'm not even going to ask about K-State since I think they're overrated.)

New Mexico is objectively pretty good. #17 in KenPom. 29-5 overall.

There are a few things going on here - people like to have sleepers advance and no one really thinks Gonzaga is a true 1-seed. Either way, I always avoid the bandwagon teams. Louisville feels like that team this year, and New Mejico feels like the bandwagon sleeper. That makes me more confident about Duke or Michigan State, as well as Ohio State. Of course, that's just me being a contrarian. It's a crapshoot. Have fun.

[ChillinDuke]

I see a lot of picks for New Mexico, both here and in the media.

What's the deal with New Mexico? Why do you guys think they can beat Gonzaga, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Arizona? (I'm not even going to ask about K-State since I think they're overrated.)

Pretty solid team. Started the year 12-0 on a run which included victories over Davidson to kickoff the year, a solid UConn team, and a somewhat down USC team. The streak ended with a close loss to South Dakota St (who's in the tourney) and then righted the ship @ then-ranked Cinci. A loss at very formidable SLU followed, but they finished the year very strong going 16-3 with a 2-1 record vs UNLV, 2-1 vs SDSU, and 2-0 vs Colorado St.

Similar to my post in the "Left Out" thread, one could argue that New Mexico's seeding has a lot to do with who they lost to - South Dakota St (RPI #63), St Louis, SDSU, UNLV, and a 1-pt loss @ RPI #79 Air Force. No bad losses at all and all tourney teams except Air Force. However, they do have good wins to back them up - notably UConn, Cinci, 2x UNLV, and even 2x Colorado St.

Good team.

As for my final 4 (as of this bleery-eyed morning):

Duke
New Mexico
Florida
Miami

The Duke/Miami final is a floor-slapping extravaganza. Duke wins.

- Chillin

[Blue Man]

Having said that: I do want to clarify that it was what you wrote about Duke going home Friday being a good thing, to get them more rest, that got me mad. I'm pretty sure that the entire team & staff didn't want to lose to MD -- they wanted to cut down those nets in Greensboro. So far the team has missed on two preseason goals, ACC regular season and tourney. They would not have been "worn down" by playing rematches against Carolina & Miami.

I came to that conclusion via 1. Coach K in the last 2 weeks of the season mentioned more than once how tired this team was both emotionally and physically.
2. On Sat after Duke lost Bobby Knight who is no fan of post season tourneys said specifically about Duke that this was the best thing for them to go home rest and get their game together. Say what you want about Knight but he is Coach K's mentor and is pretty good analytically.
3. I sure thought this team look tired; especially Mason. Coach took him out a number of times when they needed him bad in those losses. In their losses with and without Kelly they got punched in the face and had a hard time recovering. So they wack Carolina in their house and come out flat against Maryland. Emotionally they were not up for the Maryland game and it showed. Now that said Maryland played the game of their lives and Duke was mediocre and flat yet Duke easily could have won.
I am sure they wanted to continue and win. I wanted the same. I lost interest after Maryland.
But that said I was looking for a silver lining in the loss. #1 seeds vs #2 seeds are not that different.

[Saratoga2]

My head tells me it will be Louisville, New Mexico, Georgetown and Miami with Miami facing Louisville to win it all. I have Gonzaga as the first #1 to lose.

I have Duke playing Louisville in the 8's and my heart wants them to win that game and go on to defeat New Mexico and face Miami one more time in the finals.

A key injury somewhere along is likely and some good team will lose because of it. Lets hope Duke gets through unscathed.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Midwest - Duke (seriously; both my heart and my head agree)
West - New Mexico (This regional is a total guess, I don't really have confidence in any team. I know it won't produce the champion.)
South - Florida
East - Miami

Duke over Miami in the finals, very close game.

I think the elite eight will only have 2 one seeds in it, it's just that kind of year. Obviously I pick both of those to lose. In the history of the tournament, at least in the field of 64, the champ has always been a 1-4 seed. This could be a year that changes. (Slim chance, but possible.)

[captmojo]

Duke
Indiana
Georgetown
Ohio State

A nice statistic for all: Duke owns 3-1 record versus the remaining top 8 seeds, with one of three wins avenging the 1 loss.

[1 24 90]

Midwest - Duke (seriously; both my heart and my head agree)
West - New Mexico (This regional is a total guess, I don't really have confidence in any team. I know it won't produce the champion.)
South - Florida
East - Miami

Duke over Miami in the finals, very close game.

I think the elite eight will only have 2 one seeds in it, it's just that kind of year. Obviously I pick both of those to lose. In the history of the tournament, at least in the field of 64, the champ has always been a 1-4 seed. This could be a year that changes. (Slim chance, but possible.)

Of course this was way back in the 80s but Villanova was an 8 seed in 1985 (first year of 64 team bracket) and Kansas was a 6 seed in 1988.

[A-Tex Devil]

This may be posted in another thread, but it's a cool little tool to try to prevent biases. Try to avoid the descriptions and stick to the seedings and the ratings -- the descriptions have some spoilers in them that are plainly obvious. May want to re-evaluate after running through this once?

WSJ blindfold bracket (http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2013/index.php).

[CameronBornAndBred]

Of course this was way back in the 80s but Villanova was an 8 seed in 1985 (first year of 64 team bracket) and Kansas was a 6 seed in 1988.
Ahh, you are correct. I was going off a quote I had recently read.

''There's more parity,'' said gambling expert R.J. Bell of Pregame.com. ''There's going to be that bundle at the top.''
Bell said that despite an unfathomable number of bracket combinations, casinos know that a No. 4 seed or better has won the title in 24 straight years.
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/ncaa-tournament-las-vegas-louisville-slight-favorite-to-win-national-championship-indiana-duke-miami-florida-031713

[brevity]

This may be posted in another thread, but it's a cool little tool to try to prevent biases. Try to avoid the descriptions and stick to the seedings and the ratings -- the descriptions have some spoilers in them that are plainly obvious. May want to re-evaluate after running through this once?

WSJ blindfold bracket (http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2013/index.php).

This is an amazing find.

I think it helps to do this BEFORE you do your bracket. I'd already done mine, and so I had the matchups fresh in my mind, and could tell many of the teams that were being described. ("Oh, well that's South Dakota State, so this must be Michigan.") Identifying Duke should be well within your scope of ability.

The resulting bracket was close to my own, though it turns out I like Minnesota and Valparaiso a lot more in a blind comparison.

Final Four (blindly or with my eyes open) is Louisville, Gonzaga, Kansas, Miami.

[Fish80]

Duke
Gonzaga
Florida
Indiana

Duke over Florida, 80 to 76!

[g-money]

I came to that conclusion via 1. Coach K in the last 2 weeks of the season mentioned more than once how tired this team was both emotionally and physically.
2. On Sat after Duke lost Bobby Knight who is no fan of post season tourneys said specifically about Duke that this was the best thing for them to go home rest and get their game together. Say what you want about Knight but he is Coach K's mentor and is pretty good analytically.
3. I sure thought this team look tired; especially Mason. Coach took him out a number of times when they needed him bad in those losses. In their losses with and without Kelly they got punched in the face and had a hard time recovering. So they wack Carolina in their house and come out flat against Maryland. Emotionally they were not up for the Maryland game and it showed. Now that said Maryland played the game of their lives and Duke was mediocre and flat yet Duke easily could have won.
I am sure they wanted to continue and win. I wanted the same. I lost interest after Maryland.
But that said I was looking for a silver lining in the loss. #1 seeds vs #2 seeds are not that different.

You know, I think you could be on to something. IF the long break helps Duke approach the tournament as a "new season" psychologically, it could be a good thing, since we always seem to start out the season strong.

One positive about this team is that they have shown the ability to keep a team down. I hope this comes in handy the first two rounds.

[duke4ever19]

I've got the following teams in the Final Four...

Duke
New Mexico
Florida
Indiana

Duke vs. Indiana for the title and...(drumroll)...

Duke is the Nation Champion!! :cool:

[FerryFor50]

My regular bracket looked a lot like my blind bracket, but the final four was different.

My final four:

Duke
Indiana
Ohio St
Kansas


Blind final four:

Duke
Indiana
Gonzaga
Florida

[hurleyfor3]

The experts clearly agree on how wide-open this tournament is:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_tournament_is_wide_open

Nice shout-out to Alaa, though.

[superdave]

This may be posted in another thread, but it's a cool little tool to try to prevent biases. Try to avoid the descriptions and stick to the seedings and the ratings -- the descriptions have some spoilers in them that are plainly obvious. May want to re-evaluate after running through this once?

WSJ blindfold bracket (http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2013/index.php).

Interesting concept. I wound up with three 1-seeds and a 2 in the FF. The slepper teams who won a game or two, that I otherwise would not have picked, were SDSU, VCU and Marquette.

[hurleyfor3]

This may be posted in another thread, but it's a cool little tool to try to prevent biases. Try to avoid the descriptions and stick to the seedings and the ratings -- the descriptions have some spoilers in them that are plainly obvious. May want to re-evaluate after running through this once?

WSJ blindfold bracket (http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2013/index.php).

Cool link!

It was pretty easy to engineer a Duke-Miami final, but I was still surprised with some of the results. For example, Duke's run was Albany, Creighton, Memphis, St. Louis, Kansas State, Miami.

[A-Tex Devil]

Cool link!

It was pretty easy to engineer a Duke-Miami final, but I was still surprised with some of the results. For example, Duke's run was Albany, Creighton, Memphis, St. Louis, Kansas State, Miami.

Yeah -- I had St. Louis beating Louisville as well. I tried to avoid figuring out who the teams were, but Duke and Gonzaga were pretty obvious. I figured Indiana out just based on rating.

I'd like to see a blind test based only on raw data -- KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency, rebounding efficiency, number of seniors with over 10 minutes/game, effective FG percentage (off and def), etc. Don't give me seeds or conference or season descriptions. Just give that raw data and let me pick.

[NSDukeFan]

I thought I was being original when I was making my picks, but
someone else also has my final four:
Duke
Gonzaga
Michigan
Miami

Duke 72 Michigan 69

[NYBri]

Duke, as presently constituted,is the best team in the country this year.

They win it all. The rest matters not.

[Philadukie]

Lots of Final Four picks for us (which is naturally to be expected). But (our own) history seems to be against us. I found the following from Jim Sumner in 2008 in a thread over rampant concerns at the time that winning the ACC tournament was hurting our NCAA performance:

"Now let's look at it from the other end.

In the last 20 years, Duke has lost its first ACC Tournament game four times, 1993, 1996, 1997, and 2007. How did Duke use that extra rest? First-round losses in 1996 and 2007, second-round losses in 1993 and 1997. Not much of a bump."

On the topic of conference performance, I wrote the following in another thread about conference winners, but maybe it should be moved here (mods, please feel free to delete the thread I started):

One thing that occured to me when the bracket was announced is that Duke is the only team of the top eight seeds that did not either win it's conference regular season (Indiana, Georgetown), it's conference tournament (Ohio St), or both (Louisville, Kansas, Miami, Gonzaga).

This got me wondering about how other teams who have not won their conferences (either in the tournament or the regular season) have faired in making it to the Final Four or winning it all in previous NCAA tournaments.

Going back to 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, I found only four national championship teams that did not win either their conference regular season or conference tournament (Arizona - 1997; Michigan - 1989; Kansas - 1988; and Villanova - 1985), or 4 teams/28 seasons for 14.3%. In fact, you have to go back 17 seasons to find the last team (Arizona) that didn't win either one.

In looking at the Final Four teams since 1985, 27 of 112 teams (or 24%) didn't win either their conference regular seasons or tournaments. However, the trend seems to be narrowing in favor of conference winners over the last decade. Since 2003, only four teams (12.5%) who didn't win their conference tournament or regular season have made the Final Four.

'Tis the season for historical tournament facts, which in themselves do not predict future results. But if you're trying to pick the Final Four and the National Champion, it seems that it's best to pick conference winners.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Well, I've been extra wishy-washy this week with how I feel about our Blue Devils chances of a FF birth. One minute I can envision Mason's big cheesy grin as he helps cut down the nets in Indy. Then, the next minute, I see a distraught Seth Curry being pulled from the game with 35 seconds left and Duke down 9 to Creighton.

I've never gone into a tournament absolutely having no clue how a team will perform, but I get the distinct feeling it will be either a short stay or a real long stay, no in-between this time for Duke.

On Sunday night, I picked Louisville to win the whole thing, but then I kept watching/reading ESPN and then I found some clarity:

I mean, who knew that Louisville was apparently the ONLY team left in the world that has a chance to end the Heat's 23 game win streak!?

Who knew that Tom Izzo is John Wooden, Phil Jackson, Vince Lombardi, AND Bear Bryant rolled into one!?

Did you know Coaches Izzo and Pitino are THAT close to solving world hunger and bringing true peace to the world only if they had some time away from dominating collegiate sports? Darn their dedication and laser-like focus!

If only Coach K could have a coaching resume like theirs.

So NOW I can say without reservation(o.k. maybe a little) that my Final Four picks are:

DUKE
OHIO STATE
KANSAS
MIAMI, FL

Miami, FL over Ohio State 68-59.

[Blue Man]

Almost everybody picks Louisville
Not 1 "expert" picked Duke on CBS website.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/predictions

[ice-9]

Cool link!

It was pretty easy to engineer a Duke-Miami final, but I was still surprised with some of the results. For example, Duke's run was Albany, Creighton, Memphis, St. Louis, Kansas State, Miami.

That was eye opening. For some of the more surprising picks I had
- St. Louis over Louisville
- St. Mary's over Memphis
- Bucknell over Butler
- Miami over Indiana
- Davidson over Marquette (I understand Vegas only has Marquette as a 4 point favourite?)

Final Four of Duke, Gonzaga, Miami and Florida, with Florida winning it all.

This makes me feel better about Duke and worried about my picks in the East region!

[moonpie23]

i am not really into predictions, but.....


i do think that miami is going to be a tough out for anyone.....

[nocilla]

Lots of Final Four picks for us (which is naturally to be expected). But (our own) history seems to be against us...
In looking at the Final Four teams since 1985, 27 of 112 teams (or 24%) didn't win either their conference regular seasons or tournaments. However, the trend seems to be narrowing in favor of conference winners over the last decade. Since 2003, only four teams (12.5%) who didn't win their conference tournament or regular season have made the Final Four.

'Tis the season for historical tournament facts, which in themselves do not predict future results. But if you're trying to pick the Final Four and the National Champion, it seems that it's best to pick conference winners.

Well, how many teams since 2003 played in an unbalanced league without one of their star seniors for a large portion of the conference schedule? There's no way to really know, but I think Duke at full strength would have at least tied Miami for the conference regular season. Point being that when healthy, this Duke team is every bit as good as any of the other top seeds. That doesn't mean we will make the Final Four, but I don't think we can write them off because of what happened in the past.

[Cameron]

Very surprised by all of the Duke national champion picks here.

My Final Four: Duke, Wisconsin, Florida and Miami, with Duke winning it all.

My Elite Eight is just plain crazy, though: Duke over Saint Louis, Wisconsin over New Mexico, Florida over Nova, and Miami over Temple.

If Duke carries the bracket, though, it won't matter. I will win all the pools in which I am involved. Nobody (aside from my sister in one pool, who, like me, picks Duke to win it all as soon as the bracket comes out) will have picked Duke but me. So far out of the competitors I am up against I have seen Duke getting beat by Creighton or Michigan State in every single bracket.

[Mal]

In the last 20 years, Duke has lost its first ACC Tournament game four times, 1993, 1996, 1997, and 2007. How did Duke use that extra rest? First-round losses in 1996 and 2007, second-round losses in 1993 and 1997.

I think the conference regular season or tourney champs point is an interesting one, and certainly doesn't bode all that well for us, although it's not like only 5% of Final Four squads come out of the conference non-champions pool. And it's pretty clear there's no team out there that isn't a conference champ with nearly the resume of Duke this year (Michigan perhaps excepted).

But the quoted portion above is wholly unconvincing, and not at all an analogy for this year's team. Two of those teams lost their first ACC Tourney games simply because they weren't very good. In '96, we were a mediocre squad at best, with an 8 seed in the NCAA's. In '07, we were the 7th seed in the ACC Tournament and would need to have pulled an upset to reach the Sweet 16 in the NCAA's. So, throw those two out completely.

'97 was a 2 seed, although an overachieving one without a legitimate presence in the middle other than the mercurial Greg Newton, who clearly was not getting along with K by the end of the season. It was frustrating that they lost to Providence, but that was an extremely one dimensional team compared this year's. '93 was frustrating, as well, but, you know, Jason Kidd was pretty good.

Until the no-show against Maryland last Friday, this year's team was a pretty clear No. 1 seed, in the running for the overall top seed, and spent multiple weeks at the top of the polls. We might have trouble with Creighton; we might lose to Michigan State or whoever. But it would not be surprising in the least if this team turns into the exception to the conference champion trend you mention.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Midwest - Duke
West - New Mexico
South - Florida
East - Miami

Duke over Miami in the finals, very close game.

After filling out my ESPN bracket, I changed my mind on NM and Miami. I have us winning over Florida with Syracuse and Wisconsin (huge stretch) being the replacements. I keep thinking of those games that Miami totally gacked up on, and I think they have one more in them. I now have them losing to Butler.

[Wander]

The easiest way to predict what will happen is to take the stupid thing that a bunch of the talking heads are complaining about and do the opposite.

In 2006, the outrage was over the Missouri Valley getting as many bids as the ACC (when actually, the biggest snub that year was Missouri State, so the MVC arguably deserved more), and that George Mason was let in. Well, the MVC teams did basically as well as the ACC teams, despite much lower seeding, and George Mason made the Final Four.

In 2011, the outrage was over VCU being let in, and everyone spoke about the Big East being the best conference ever. The BE completely flopped in a series of upsets, and VCU made the Final Four.

Therefore, Gonzaga will win the national championship this year.

[hurleyfor3]

The easiest way to predict what will happen is to take the stupid thing that a bunch of the talking heads are complaining about and do the opposite.

In 2006, the outrage was over the Missouri Valley getting as many bids as the ACC (when actually, the biggest snub that year was Missouri State, so the MVC arguably deserved more), and that George Mason was let in. Well, the MVC teams did basically as well as the ACC teams, despite much lower seeding, and George Mason made the Final Four.

In 2011, the outrage was over VCU being let in, and everyone spoke about the Big East being the best conference ever. The BE completely flopped in a series of upsets, and VCU made the Final Four.

Therefore, Gonzaga will win the national championship this year.

In 2010, Everyone had a Kansas/Ky championship game, with Baylor making the Final Four from our region. I won't even begin to get into 2011. I generally agree with your philosophy, although Everyone was right in 2009 and 2012.

It is certainly true that Everyone likes Loovul and No One likes Gonzo.

[Son of Jarhead]

My Final Four:

DUKE (over Louisville in Midwest regional final)
Ohio State (over Wisconsin in West regional final)
Michigan (over Florida in South regional final)
Miami (over Indiana in East regional final)

DUKE over Miami in championship game in an epic battle.

...or something like that.

[hurleyfor3]

For posterization:

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=3286&d=1363801963

[flyingdutchdevil]

For posterization:

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=3286&d=1363801963

Two quick comments:

1) Recency bias is never more evident than during the tournament (although there is indeed a correlation between the latter performance of a team and winning in the tourney)
2) Not surprisingly, the South has the least consensus

[rtnorthrup]

Duke
Gonzaga
Florida
Syracuse

Duke over Florida for #5

[Duvall]

Two quick comments:

1) Recency bias is never more evident than during the tournament (although there is indeed a correlation between the latter performance of a team and winning in the tourney)

Sure, but there's a difference between recency bias and forgetting that Florida, Miami and Kansas have bad losses from the last week of the regular season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Sure, but there's a difference between recency bias and forgetting that Florida, Miami and Kansas have bad losses from the last week of the regular season.

I think my recency bias theory (conference tournament) may trump your recency bias theory (last week of the regular season). Sports analysts, even the great ones, live in the most recent moment. And Florida, Miami, and Kansas all went to the finals of their respective tournaments (with the latter two winning). It's human nature - you believe a team (or a meal, or a service that you received) to be as good as it's most recent performance.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

With all the parity I see this season, I decided to take a few flyers this year...

I have Miami, VCU,Michigan St. and Gonzaga in the final four with Miami cutting down the nets.

I have Duke taken out in the sweet sixteen by Michigan St.
I have UNC upsetting Kansas, but also out in the sweet sixteen from VCU.

[Fish80]

With all the parity I see this season, I decided to take a few flyers this year...

I have Miami, VCU,Michigan St. and Gonzaga in the final four with Miami cutting down the nets.

I have Duke taken out in the sweet sixteen by Michigan St.I have UNC upsetting Kansas, but also out in the sweet sixteen from VCU.

Wheat, I may never catch another fish. :mad:

[David]

My Final 4:
Louisville over Ohio State
Florida over IU

Championship:
Lousville 75
Florida 67

Obviously, I hope I am wrong, but nothing good ever happens when I pick Duke.

[devildeac]

Picks from the Pres:

http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/president-barack-obama-makes-his-final-four-picks-032013

What? No love for Duke? Again!

:(

Wonder if he discussed his selections with Mr. Love? (Reggie, not Kevin or Buddy:rolleyes:)

[rsvman]

Obama's picks are crap. Every year.

I could be proven wrong, but I find it odd that so many people are high on Indiana right now. Didn't they lose something like 3 of their last 6 games? If Duke had done that we would've been given a 5 seed and everybody would've picked us to go out in the first round, but when Indiana does it many people pick them for the Final Four, and the President says "It's their year."

I certainly hope he is wrong.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Obama's picks are crap. Every year.

I could be proven wrong, but I find it odd that so many people are high on Indiana right now. Didn't they lose something like 3 of their last 6 games? If Duke had done that we would've been given a 5 seed and everybody would've picked us to go out in the first round, but when Indiana does it many people pick them for the Final Four, and the President says "It's their year."

I certainly hope he is wrong.
There are a few baby blues down the road from 2009 that disagree. (Although anytime you pick them I think it's a crappy pick, even if you turn out to be right.)

[weezie]

Duke, OSU, Miami and FL.

We win and everybody hates us so much that their heads explode.

Can't wait!!:cool:

[Cameron]

There are a few baby blues down the road from 2009 that disagree. (Although anytime you pick them I think it's a crappy pick, even if you turn out to be right.)

It's less likely that Obama picked the correct national champion in 2009 due to his prowess as a college basketball insider than it is that he simply picked the overwhelming favorite in the tournament that year. Had the odds-on-favorite been Houston Baptist, he would have said, "It's their year."

[NM Duke Fan]

St. Louis
Gonzaga
Georgetown
Miami

Gonzaga over Miami 83-79

[AZLA]

I see a lot of picks for New Mexico, both here and in the media.

What's the deal with New Mexico? Why do you guys think they can beat Gonzaga, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Arizona? (I'm not even going to ask about K-State since I think they're overrated.)

New Mexico I heard had very high RPI ranking of 2. The 360 dunk in the league championship game got some top ten air time. People like animals on everything from wine labels to -- even a languished looking grey Lobo. I did a stint at UNM back when Aussie Luke Longley was rocking at center. I write that somewhat cheeky, but I believe he did get an NBA championship by transitive property with the Bulls. But he did have some interesting center battles against the ever longer Bradley. Also, UNM probably would have experienced their own program's fall from grace had Coach Bliss not taken his scandalous talents to Waco. Let's just say he had no problem creating intercession classes for failing students when there was no intercession offered; oh and the best way to get around NCAA practice restrictions was to hold open games (attended by coaches) on the nearby Kirkland AFB. But the good news is they have a quality coach in Steve Alford and I think everyone wants to see a sleeper make it to the Final Four. And c'mon, they play at THE PIT. Ring a bell NC State fans? Dear goodness, the PIT! An underground dungeon of basketball goodness. It really is a unique and memorable venue -- not quite Cameron -- but when was the last time you say a game in a giant covered hole in the ground. Lastly, hatch green chilies... they go great with just about anything you can it in New Mexico. Okay I went off on a tangent, probably just jinxed 'em. They're out int he 2nd round.

[DukeAlumBS]

Two quick comments:

1) Recency bias is never more evident than during the tournament (although there is indeed a correlation between the latter performance of a team and winning in the tourney)
2) Not surprisingly, the South has the least consensus

I am in agreement with you regarding ESPN especially. You hear one thing and see another. I do not think any bias. Yes, UVA, Md and another went to the NIT. I think is is simple . They are jealous, pure and plain jealous of K and Duke. JB and Jason Williams am trying to understand them, that is all I have to say. If you can not be a hard core analyst in the sports arena, and root for Duke. Then get out of it!
Nice day,

Jimmy

[Buckeye Devil]

Louisville
Ohio St
Georgetown
Miami

Louisville over Miami in the NC game.

My heart says Duke but I thought Louisville looked better over the weekend. Duke got a nasty draw in my opinion. OSU got the best possible path for a #2 seed and if Duke was in the west I would pick them.

[NM Duke Fan]

New Mexico I heard had very high RPI ranking of 2. The 360 dunk in the league championship game got some top ten air time. People like animals on everything from wine labels to -- even a languished looking grey Lobo. I did a stint at UNM back when Aussie Luke Longley was rocking at center. I write that somewhat cheeky, but I believe he did get an NBA championship by transitive property with the Bulls. But he did have some interesting center battles against the ever longer Bradley. Also, UNM probably would have experienced their own program's fall from grace had Coach Bliss not taken his scandalous talents to Waco. Let's just say he had no problem creating intercession classes for failing students when there was no intercession offered; oh and the best way to get around NCAA practice restrictions was to hold open games (attended by coaches) on the nearby Kirkland AFB. But the good news is they have a quality coach in Steve Alford and I think everyone wants to see a sleeper make it to the Final Four. And c'mon, they play at THE PIT. Ring a bell NC State fans? Dear goodness, the PIT! An underground dungeon of basketball goodness. It really is a unique and memorable venue -- not quite Cameron -- but when was the last time you say a game in a giant covered hole in the ground. Lastly, hatch green chilies... they go great with just about anything you can it in New Mexico. Okay I went off on a tangent, probably just jinxed 'em. They're out int he 2nd round.

Although as you can guess from my screen name, I am from NM, and yet I did not pick them. That being said, I can see why some did put them into the final 4. They know who they are and play within their scheme, are well-coached, and they are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament. They certainly have a chance to make it this year.

BTW, when I was a bicycle racer, I often did a training route through Hatch, and as I rode I would inhale the fragrance of the Hatch chiles from all the surrounding fields! Once in awhile several would fall out of a passing farm truck, and land practically in my lap. They made great enchiladas!

[oakvillebluedevil]

You mean a politician chose a final four that played to voters in Indiana, Florida, and Ohio? Stunning :D

On topic,

SLU
Zags
FL
Miami

Miami over SLU

[DukeAlumBS]

Lots of Final Four picks for us (which is naturally to be expected). But (our own) history seems to be against us. I found the following from Jim Sumner in 2008 in a thread over rampant concerns at the time that winning the ACC tournament was hurting our NCAA performance:

"Now let's look at it from the other end.

In the last 20 years, Duke has lost its first ACC Tournament game four times, 1993, 1996, 1997, and 2007. How did Duke use that extra rest? First-round losses in 1996 and 2007, second-round losses in 1993 and 1997. Not much of a bump."

On the topic of conference performance, I wrote the following in another thread about conference winners, but maybe it should be moved here (mods, please feel free to delete the thread I started):

One thing that occured to me when the bracket was announced is that Duke is the only team of the top eight seeds that did not either win it's conference regular season (Indiana, Georgetown), it's conference tournament (Ohio St), or both (Louisville, Kansas, Miami, Gonzaga).

This got me wondering about how other teams who have not won their conferences (either in the tournament or the regular season) have faired in making it to the Final Four or winning it all in previous NCAA tournaments.

Going back to 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, I found only four national championship teams that did not win either their conference regular season or conference tournament (Arizona - 1997; Michigan - 1989; Kansas - 1988; and Villanova - 1985), or 4 teams/28 seasons for 14.3%. In fact, you have to go back 17 seasons to find the last team (Arizona) that didn't win either one.

In looking at the Final Four teams since 1985, 27 of 112 teams (or 24%) didn't win either their conference regular seasons or tournaments. However, the trend seems to be narrowing in favor of conference winners over the last decade. Since 2003, only four teams (12.5%) who didn't win their conference tournament or regular season have made the Final Four.

'Tis the season for historical tournament facts, which in themselves do not predict future results. But if you're trying to pick the Final Four and the National Champion, it seems that it's best to pick conference winners.

I agree with the above. I have Duke winning it all! LOL, thank you, change is coming this year.
Enjoy the games, have a nice weekend my friends.

Jimmy

[CameronBornAndBred]

You mean a politician chose a final four that played to voters in Indiana, Florida, and Ohio? Stunning :D

Ooooh! You're right! He's not getting my vote next time!

[davekay1971]

You mean a politician chose a final four that played to voters in Indiana, Florida, and Ohio? Stunning :D


Nahhh, he's second term. Now if Hillary or Rubio made those picks...

On topic, I have Duke and 3 other teams I can't remember (although I'm pretty sure UNC wasn't among them). And Duke winning it all.

[ice-9]

I see a lot of picks for New Mexico, both here and in the media.

What's the deal with New Mexico? Why do you guys think they can beat Gonzaga, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Arizona? (I'm not even going to ask about K-State since I think they're overrated.)

Bwahahaha, can't say I called Harvard over New Mexico, but was always puzzled why the latter was held in such regard.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Bwahahaha, can't say I called Harvard over New Mexico, but was always puzzled why the latter was held in such regard.
On my first post here, I had NM in it. By the time I had actually filled out a bracket, I changed my mind. Whew.

[Tripping William]

Duke
G'town
Wisco
IU

Duke over G'town for Natty #5.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

I think Izzo gets us this time and goes all the way.
Love, Ima