2013 Midwest (Indy) Region Discussion (Louisville #1, Duke #2)

[hurleyfor3]

This thread is for discussion of impending and potential matchups in the Midwest region. Regional finals are Friday/Sunday at the Colts' stadium in Indianapolis.

[OldPhiKap]

Fair draw, time to ball.

Go Devils!

[Gthoma2a]

Kind of bites that we are getting stuck in the region with Louisville (if I was hearing them right). We have to be on our game if we both make it to that point.

[RaiderDevil]

Lower than anyone thought

[Gthoma2a]

Lower than anyone thought

We picked a bad time for a loss (second one to the same team; a team that isn't in the tournament).

[chaosmage]

we got dropped to the 8th overall if I'm doing the math correctly. Wow.

[pfrduke]

Lower than anyone thought

Not necessarily - they don't do a perfect S-curve for the 1-2 seeds.

[freshmanjs]

we got dropped to the 8th overall if I'm doing the math correctly. Wow.

as has been pointed out here many times, 2 seeds are done by geo preference, not s curve.

[hurleyfor3]

Has cbs yet mentioned the regional pairings for the Final Four? Waiting to hear that before opening up the regional thread.

[luburch]

Pitino, Izzo, and K all in one region. Tough.

[mcdukie]

Little surprised we dropped to eighth. No reward for the schedule we played but the loss to Maryland made it hard to argue. Will be mad if Kansas is a one seed.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I can't think of a tougher bracket. I was definitely off in my thinking. Wow. Just wow.

[scottdude8]

The draw we got as about as bad as it could've possibly been for us. We got a team in Creighton that is a very tough second round matchup, a possibly matchup with a MSU team that matches up very well with us, and then we're stuck with the No. 1 overall seed.

I'm so damn frustrated. This goes against everything the committee says, that they value quality wins and scheduling difficult games. This is a crock.

[Gthoma2a]

The draw we got as about as bad as it could've possibly been for us. We got a team in Creighton that is a very tough second round matchup, a possibly matchup with a MSU team that matches up very well with us, and then we're stuck with the No. 1 overall seed.

I'm so damn frustrated. This goes against everything the committee says, that they value quality wins and scheduling difficult games. This is a crock.

I agree, but we have to go out and win! That's all that's left.

[nmduke2001]

as has been pointed out here many times, 2 seeds are done by geo preference, not s curve.
You are correct....
http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/15/mocking-the-bracket-what-we-learned/

[KandG]

Reward for their tank job in Greensboro is a brutal draw...sometimes, you get what you deserve. A great year potentially undone by one major no-show. Oh well.

As everyone knows, no Final Four appearances as a non-number 1 seed since 1995.

[hurleyfor3]

Louisville is #1 and is the overall #1. Duke is #2. Regional winner plays the West winner in the Final Four.

[DukeGirl4ever]

If anyone finds out the time for our game in Philly on Friday, will you please post?
I would like to get tickets ASAP.

[captmojo]

Creighton is tough.
Whatever, you gotta win.
Tough wins only make you tougher.

[Bluedog]

Definitely not easy, but nothing is easy. If we get by Creighton, MSU and Louisville in Indy is really really tough. But we've had good luck at Lucas Oil Stadium lately and if we make it there, it's easy for me to get there!

[luburch]

Brutal.

[OldPhiKap]

Carolina may have Kansas in second round. Suck it Roy. But Villanova might spoil the party.

South. Region harder than ours IMHO.

[sporthenry]

Brutal.

What is so brutal about it?

[johnny2001]

Wow from possible 1 seed to the worst 2 seed. If that's how they do it...which is likely. Louisville the top 1 gets the worst 4 and 2 seed. That's duke in this case. Talk about the no show at the acc tourney affecting things. That's a rough spot. Ouch is all I can say. Duke will be lucky to make it past Michigan st in my opinion.

[luburch]

Pitino, Izzo, K all in one region. Creighton is a tough 7. St. Louis is a hot 4 seed. Oregon, with terrible seeding at 12, is strong. How is it not brutal?

[CoachJ10]

First glance, there are no teams in this bracket that have top notch penetrating point guard that we could have difficulty with.

I like our matchups against Creighton, MSU...and it helps having already played and beaten the #1 seed in our draw.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Carolina may have Kansas in second round. Suck it Roy. But Villanova might spoil the party.

South. Region harder than ours IMHO.

I would switch MSU for Fl in a heartbeat.

[ice-9]

Wow. Could it be any harder?? Albany is easy, but that's it. Creighton is #15 on KenPom as a second round match-up; they've got to be the strongest 7 seed in the bracket. And then there's a good chance Michigan State, #10 on KenPom, will be waiting for us in the Sweet Sixteen. If we get past them, we're rewarded for our efforts with the overall top seeded team in the country, Louisville!

This is the reward that we get for a potential 1-seed, realized 2-seed team?!?

About as hard of a path to the Final Four as I could have imagined.

[freshmanjs]

Wow from possible 1 seed to the worst 2 seed. If that's how they do it...which is likely.

that's not how they do it.

[NYBri]

Really paying the price of not showing up on Friday. Totally unexpected that we didn't.

[Bluedog]

Wow from possible 1 seed to the worst 2 seed. If that's how they do it...which is likely. Louisville the top 1 gets the worst 4 and 2 seed. That's duke in this case. Talk about the no show at the acc tourney affecting things. That's a rough spot. Ouch is all I can say. Duke will be lucky to make it past Michigan st in my opinion.

The Midwest is the second preferred site for Duke (behind DC). That means, we are 6th overall. 1 and 2 seeds are placed on geography only.

[pfrduke]

People. They do not seed on an S-curve. Let me say this again: THEY DO NOT SEED ON AN S-CURVE. The fact that we got in Louisville's bracket does not make us the 4th #2 seed.

[Chris Randolph]

First glance, there are no teams in this bracket that have top notch penetrating point guard that we could have difficulty with.

I like our matchups against Creighton, MSU...and it helps having already played and beaten the #1 seed in our draw.

Siva at Louisville, Appling at Mich St

[Gthoma2a]

Really paying the price of not showing up on Friday. Totally unexpected that we didn't.

I am still in shock that we came out like we did. We have to find the magic again, especially in this bracket.

Miami is a 2. The entire conference just got insulted. Miami won both the tournament and regular season...

[Udaman]

Our bracket has 2 of the top 4 rpi teams and 3 of the top 10. Toughest by far. Sigh. Getting Louisville is just awful. Then again, if we get that far I'll take it. But we got screwed. No way around it.

[CoachJ10]

Siva at Louisville, Appling at Mich St

We contained Siva...and he is not a dual threat penetrating point guard (i.e. not a threat from the outside). And Appling is not an aggressive driving to the tin point guard. These are not point guards that cause us problems (like the Larkins and Burkes). Siva and Appling are good players...but don't present the same skill sets that cause us problems.

[SCMatt33]

If Ryan Kelly was 100%, I'd love the match-up with Creighton. He has the ability to defend him inside and out. With Kelly not 100%, that would be tough. Gotta get by Albany first. Have they been back to the tourney since they gave UConn a legit scare for 30 minutes in '06 as a 16 seed?

[burns15]

First glance, there are no teams in this bracket that have top notch penetrating point guard that we could have difficulty with.

I like our matchups against Creighton, MSU...and it helps having already played and beaten the #1 seed in our draw.

Marcus Smart begs to differ

[throatybeard]

Oh, for a Mizzou upset of Louisville and a SLU-Mizzou Sweet16 matchup.

[Gthoma2a]

Calipari misses the tournament... some things money can't buy.

[I_am_a_Blue_Devil]

We have to win 6 games. No matter the draw, no matter the seed, we must win 6. A week ago, if we had a game scheduled against any team in our bracket, everyone of us would have picked Duke to win. And truth be told, even though there may be tons of top tough teams in the region, we only have to play 4 of them (if we win). 4 wins and in the final four. Duke is good, and they have shown it, now let's go win against Albany.

[Troublemaker]

The Midwest is the second preferred site for Duke (behind DC). That means, we are 6th overall. 1 and 2 seeds are placed on geography only.

Yep. Based on geo-preference, looks like 2-seeds went: 5. Miami 6. Duke 7. Georgetown 8. Ohio St

[throatybeard]

Calipari misses the tournament... some things money can't buy.

I don't know, I think I'd rather see Kentucky lose a play-in game.

[1 24 90]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/156

Here's a brief look at Creighton if they and Duke both win their first games.

[Monmouth77]

Siva at Louisville, Appling at Mich St

Appling is a guy we can handle. And we did ok against Louisville as I recall.

I am more worried about getting Bootsied by McDermott.

[sporthenry]

Wow. Could it be any harder?? Albany is easy, but that's it. Creighton is #15 on KenPom as a second round match-up; they've got to be the strongest 7 seed in the bracket. And then there's a good chance Michigan State, #10 on KenPom, will be waiting for us in the Sweet Sixteen. If we get past them, we're rewarded for our efforts with the overall top seeded team in the country, Louisville!

This is the reward that we get for a potential 1-seed, realized 2-seed team?!?

About as hard of a path to the Final Four as I could have imagined.


This is crazy talk. MSU is tough but it could have easily have been Florida who most would agree that it is harder. Could have also been Michigan. This isn't the best draw but it isn't terrible

As for the 2nd round match up, Mizzou 9 seed ranked at 18, Pittsburgh is an 8 seed and Kenpom has them at 7. Sure they could have gotten easier ones but it isn't that ridiculous.

[captmojo]

I don't know, I think I'd rather see Kentucky lose a play-in game.

Amen, brother. Amen. And, in a squeaker. A heartbreaker.

[Gthoma2a]

I'd kill to trade with OSU...

[CoachJ10]

Marcus Smart begs to differ

If we end up playing Oklahoma State...I think we will have a defense scheme for Smart as they are not a good 3 point shooting team at all, thus allowing us to sag a little more than we usual do.

[Ky-Dukie]

I will not be suprised if we play Cincinnati the second game.

[rifraf]

I'd kill to trade with OSU...

Not out West. Duke doesn't do so well when we fly out there.

[ynotme32]

If Duke can't beat Albany, Creighton/Cincinnati, then MSU to get to the Elite 8 then Duke isn't an elite team. Those teams are not world beaters. Good teams, yes, but Duke should handle them. Don't let the one MD game on Friday distort your view of Duke, if you knew before the season started Duke's path to the elite 8 was Albany, Creighton, and MSU, I am sure most of you would have gladly taken that.

[Bluedog]

I'd kill to trade with OSU...


Not out West. Duke doesn't do so well when we fly out there.

Particularly since they'll likely be getting Arizona or New Mexico, which won't be easy...obviously, going to be a unbalanced crowd.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I hate to whine, but Duke should be a 1 seed over Indiana and/ or Gonzaga. We got screwed. Now on to Albany.

[Gthoma2a]

Why pick St. Louis?!

[SCMatt33]

Not out West. Duke doesn't do so well when we fly out there.

Yeah, I could see 2011 all over again, especially with the potential Sunday/Thursday turnaround with a cross country flight in between. The only two seed that I'd trade with would be Miami, but potentially going Friday-Friday is good with me.

[Gmadaduke]

Tough draw, but if we take it one game at a time, anything can happen.

For a little levity, I live in New York and the Louisville team stayed in a hotel across the street for the Big East tourney. Yesterday I went for a piece of pizza and the Louisville team was in this small pizza joint on 3rd Avenue. Let me tell you, these guys are hungry!!

[pamtar]

Total crap. We should have at least been in a weak East/South with Indiana or Kansas as the 1. Now that I think about it, the entire ACC got raped, save the U. UNC gets Kansas IF they beat Nova. NCSU gets Indiana if they beat Temple (who shouldn't be an issue for the Pack). And as for UMD, they should at least be in a play-in game.

UL's first 3 games should be a breeze. The ONLY team I see tripping them up is Mizzou. If we make to the 3rd round we likely face Izzo and Co. in Big # country. I'm totally unimpressed with the selection committee. Worst I've ever seen, honestly. Never seen a team No1 RPI, No1 SOS, with victories against 2 no 2 seeds AND the No1 seed in their own bracket get the last 2 seed well away from home. Not to mention we have the same record as UL.

[75Crazie]

First glance, there are no teams in this bracket that have top notch penetrating point guard that we could have difficulty with.

I like our matchups against Creighton, MSU...and it helps having already played and beaten the #1 seed in our draw.
Why does that help? Louisville is playing better now than then, Duke (in my opinion) is not playing as well now than then, and they were without Deng in that game. Add in some small measure of revenge, and I have a bad feeling about that game. That is, of course, assuming both teams get that far.

[throatybeard]

Who picked St. Louis?!

I did, just for fun. But they could totally take out Louisville.

[Gthoma2a]

I did, just for fun. But they could totally take out Louisville.

Cool. I was thinking I was missing something. The salukis (I am guessing on the spelling) are alright, but I thought you were just going by best odds for a solid mid major.

[Furniture]

We are the underdog!

[Bluedog]

I actually think the 8/9s are better than the 7/10s. Seems to me like the 2 seeds got more favorable draws. I think we actually got a better 7/10 matchup for our style of play than other regions, but a harder 3 than West/East. Just gotta win the games in front of you. Hopefully, we get it done.

[pfrduke]

Cool. I was thinking I was missing something. The salukis (I am guessing on the spelling) are alright, but I thought you were just going by best odds for a solid mid major.

It's spelled Billiken.

[ice-9]

This is crazy talk. MSU is tough but it could have easily have been Florida who most would agree that it is harder. Could have also been Michigan. This isn't the best draw but it isn't terrible

As for the 2nd round match up, Mizzou 9 seed ranked at 18, Pittsburgh is an 8 seed and Kenpom has them at 7. Sure they could have gotten easier ones but it isn't that ridiculous.


Yeah I posted that before the other regions were announced. Agree our draw isn't THAT bad now that I've seen everything else.

I'm frankly a little surprised Florida is a 3-seed -- agree they are by far the toughest 3-seed. I would much prefer Michigan State over Florida. But I would also prefer New Mexico and Marquette over Michigan State.

(It appears the committee this year DOES highly value conference tournament winners. Ohio State vaulted over Florida; Miami over us; etc.)

Also agree Michigan is a difficult 4-seed, and Pittsburgh a scary 8-seed, but that's a 1-seed's problem. :D

Louisville destroyed Missouri without Dieng by 23 points in the Bahamas, so I don't think Pitino and co. are losing sleep about that potential match-up.

I still stand by my statement that Creighton is the strongest 7-seed in the bracket -- although that said, I'd rather have Creighton than Notre Dame. It's true that Creighton isn't a particularly bad match-up for us with Kelly on board, but at the same time, the second round game is supposed to be a relatively easy game for the 2-seed! Like say...San Diego State for Georgetown.

Overall, I still think we have the toughest bracket as a 2-seed. For Georgetown, they have the weakest 1-seed and only Florida is difficult as the 3-seed. For Ohio State, chances are good Gonzaga and New Mexico will get upset. Lots of solid teams out in the East for Miami, but no one scary and Syracuse has a decent chance of getting by Indiana. In the Midwest, by comparison, I see it playing pretty much according to seed which means Creighton, Michigan State and Louisville for us.

[SCMatt33]

The one thing I like about Creighton is that their elite player is a forward instead of a guard. No one in Philly that I see who can pull a Dez Wells. On the other hand. Kelly didn't look so good defending Kenny Kadji...

[grossbus]

tell me game time and TV coverage... :D

[CoachJ10]

Why does that help? Louisville is playing better now than then, Duke (in my opinion) is not playing as well now than then, and they were without Deng in that game. Add in some small measure of revenge, and I have a bad feeling about that game. That is, of course, assuming both teams get that far.

You don't think having beaten another team matters? Well, I think it does. Are they a potential formidable opponent? Sure. But don't discount the mental advantage of knowing you can beat someone.

I'd also like to add...that I am not sure that Louisville gets this same amount of slobbering by the experts if Syracuse hadn't choked that large lead. Kudos to Louisville for the comeback...but the Orangemen lost that game in bad fashion.

[Gthoma2a]

It's spelled Billiken.

Haha. I don't know where I heard the other one now. Southern Illinois. I see.

[throatybeard]

Cool. I was thinking I was missing something. The salukis (I am guessing on the spelling) are alright, but I thought you were just going by best odds for a solid mid major.

SIU had an awful 8-23 season and fired the coach.

[brevity]

One advantage is that no Duke haters, in their right or wrong mind, would complain about Duke's draw. Getting their silence over the next week is worth any amount of gold. Let them complain about the Zags and Buckeyes instead.

In a way, though, Duke isn't so bad off. They're in the toughest region, but in the easier bottom half of it. A chalk lineup of Albany, Creighton, and Michigan State. It's tough, but workable. Duke can exorcise some 2012 demons by beating Doug McDermott. I see Duke making a reasonable push into the Sweet 16, and a coin flip against the Spartans.

The top half of this region, meanwhile, is where it gets ugly. About 5 or 6 of those 8 teams can get hot. And the Selection Committee made up its mind about Oregon way before the Pac-12 final. See? Lazy.

Bottom line: the Selection Committee clearly hates Louisville. It's a weird draw for the overall top seed.

[sporthenry]

Why does that help? Louisville is playing better now than then, Duke (in my opinion) is not playing as well now than then, and they were without Deng in that game. Add in some small measure of revenge, and I have a bad feeling about that game. That is, of course, assuming both teams get that far.

According to BPI, Duke played its best game at UNC last week. And sure, Louisville might appear to be playing best now but 2 weeks is a long time. 2 weeks ago, Syracuse was playing better than Louisville, now they are a 4 seed.

The one thing that Louisville does is try to turn people over. The one thing Duke doesn't do is turn the ball over.

[sporthenry]

Looking at the brackets top 4 seeds, the South is brutal. KU, Georgetown, Florida and Michigan. By far the hardest bracket by that measure.

The East/Mid West are about equal. I think I'd rather be in Miami's shoes with Marquette instead of MSU but Syracuse is better than SLU (not that the 4 seed affects Duke).

The West is obviously the weakest but I'm not sure it is as weak as everyone is making it out to be. NM is a very good team. K-State isn't a pushover, Wisconsin looks to be easily the best 5 seed and Arizona as a 6 is pretty crazy.

[coldriver10]

We controlled our own destiny for getting THE #1 seed (let alone any #1 seed) and came up far short. I don't care who is in front of us in our bracket...once again, WE control our own destiny for getting to the FF. If we play the way I know we can play, we'll be in Atlanta. If we play like we did against MD, we won't.

Let's go, guys. You got this.

[mr. synellinden]

We are the underdog!

This is a big deal. Really. Imagine we won the ACCT. We're probably the overall #1 seed and all the talking heads are spouting off about how we're undefeated with Kelly - we've beaten Louisville, Miami, Ohio St. and a clear favorite to cut down the nets.

I'd rather not go into the tourney with that kind of pressure. We are still the team that won all those big games, has the best coach in the country, has three star seniors and a very underrated point guard. We shoot 3s and FTs very well. We just got our bad shooting game out of our system. We are a tough out for anyone. Nobody scares me. Louisville - the #1 overall seed - whom everyone just picked to go to the Final Four - was down 16 in the second half against Syracuse when James Southerland went out with his fourth foul and Syracuse imploded in epic fashion.

I like our draw. We avoided Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Georgetown, Florida and Ohio St.- all teams that I thought would give us trouble. If we play with intensity, and no reason we shouldn't, health permitting, I see us making the final four.

And there, we get the West region.

From here on out it's all about surviving and advancing.

[Ltrey33]

I'm still not seeing how we didn't get screwed, at least a little bit.

If the bracket for 2 seeds is based upon geography (hence, putting us in Philadelphia), what prevented the selection committee from putting Duke in the South bracket, whose first round is also played in Philadelphia?

That would have gotten us away from the overall #1 seed and from MSU, who appears to be a stronger team than Florida.

[freshmanjs]

I'm still not seeing how we didn't get screwed, at least a little bit.

If the bracket for 2 seeds is based upon geography (hence, putting us in Philadelphia), what prevented the selection committee from putting Duke in the South bracket, whose first round is also played in Philadelphia?

That would have gotten us away from the overall #1 seed and from MSU, who appears to be a stronger team than Florida.

the philadelphia location is not linked to which region we got sent to. we would have played in philly regardless.

we got sent to indianapolis instead of arlington because it is much closer for us.

[sporthenry]

I'm still not seeing how we didn't get screwed, at least a little bit.

If the bracket for 2 seeds is based upon geography (hence, putting us in Philadelphia), what prevented the selection committee from putting Duke in the South bracket, whose first round is also played in Philadelphia?

That would have gotten us away from the overall #1 seed and from MSU, who appears to be a stronger team than Florida.

The first round locations are irrelevant for the bracket. We would have been in Philly if we were in the West.

As for Duke getting screwed, they were passed by Miami. So Miami got the East. After that, it seems that Duke's regional preference is Mid-West, not the South. I haven't seen the S-curve, but I would imagine Duke was 6th/7th.

As for MSU, nobody wants Florida over MSU and again, that was all done with regional preference.

[Struggling golfer]

I hate to whine, but Duke should be a 1 seed over Indiana and/ or Gonzaga. We got screwed. Now on to Albany.

You have got to kidding. There is no comparison between the Big 10 and the ACC this year. The former is light years better and Indiana won its conference. Duke came in 2nd. In its tournament, Indiana at least won 1 game and then lost to a number 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Duke did not win a game in its tournament and lost to a team that didn't even make the Tournament.

I am sure you are a diehard Duke fan, but to say that Duke got screwed is just so wrong.

Gonzaga was ranked number 1 in the polls and deserve a number 1 ranking over Duke.

The only argument that you might have could be that Duke should have ranked higher than Ohio State, Miami or Georgetown, but even there I am not sure that holds merit

[FerryFor50]

I seriously think the committee has ZERO procedure for how they seed teams. Just seems completely random. I laughed out loud when I heard one of the committee members being interviewed when he defended Gonzaga as a #1 by saying "teams being their A game every night against them." For one, their conference competition's "A" games are actually C games for everyone else in the country. And if opponent effort is a qualification, then how does Duke get a brutal region while Gonzaga gets probably the best draw of any 1 seed?

[NashvilleDevil]

The one thing I like about Creighton is that their elite player is a forward instead of a guard. No one in Philly that I see who can pull a Dez Wells. On the other hand. Kelly didn't look so good defending Kenny Kadji...

It was his first game back.

[hurleyfor3]

Pretty sure we're undefeated in Indianapolis. 1987 early rounds, 1991 final, 2010 final.

Wait... we're undefeated in NCAA Tournament games in Philly, too!

[Saratoga2]

Looking at the brackets top 4 seeds, the South is brutal. KU, Georgetown, Florida and Michigan. By far the hardest bracket by that measure.

The East/Mid West are about equal. I think I'd rather be in Miami's shoes with Marquette instead of MSU but Syracuse is better than SLU (not that the 4 seed affects Duke).

The West is obviously the weakest but I'm not sure it is as weak as everyone is making it out to be. NM is a very good team. K-State isn't a pushover, Wisconsin looks to be easily the best 5 seed and Arizona as a 6 is pretty crazy.

I agree with you that the south region looks very tough and I can't abide those who want to whine about Dukes draw. We lost our chance to be a #1 with the early exit in the ACC tournament and the draw we got is reasonable. Now lets hope the team can play it's best ball and that we play aggressive defense. Looking forward to the first game and if we get by that we could get a tough Creighton team. One game at a time, and lets enjoy the run. One loss and any team is out. Our seniors (Mason, Ryan and Seth) have been excellent player for us and I want to watch them move us ahead.

[HDB]

If Ryan Kelly was 100%, I'd love the match-up with Creighton. He has the ability to defend him inside and out. With Kelly not 100%, that would be tough. Gotta get by Albany first. Have they been back to the tourney since they gave UConn a legit scare for 30 minutes in '06 as a 16 seed?

What do you know about Ryan's health that I don't know? He looks good to go to me.

[Tripping William]

1) Derek Smith leads Ville to a title in Indy.

2) Nolan Smith leads Duke to a title in Indy 30 years later.

3) Duke could meet Ville in Indy with a Final Four trip on the line.

"If at all God's gaze upon us falls, it's with a mischievous grin."

[Ltrey33]

the philadelphia location is not linked to which region we got sent to. we would have played in philly regardless.

we got sent to indianapolis instead of arlington because it is much closer for us.

Makes sense.

[FerryFor50]

What do you know about Ryan's health that I don't know? He looks good to go to me.

Probably referring to his conditioning. I don't think the foot is an issue.

However, remember that Creighton is the team that laid out Kendall Marshall last year and broke his wrist. They were VERY physical/borderline dirty. Big East mentality, which is perfect once that is where they are headed next year. Really hoping for Cincy.

[Struggling golfer]

My one concern is that last year one player killed us and led to our defeat. This year Creighton has a much better player.

[Dukeblue91]

Wow, if this loss this weekend didn't cost us dearly then I don't know.
This bracket is brutal and if our guys are not woken up now after what has happened then nothing will.
The good news is that when looking at all those teams individually, we can beat all of them if we play like we did against UNC, if we don't then we won't get very far.
There is also hope for a few upsets that could favor us on the way to the final four.
I sure hope our guys got the message given to them.

[FerryFor50]

My one concern is that last year one player killed us and led to our defeat. This year Creighton has a much better player.

A valid concern. McDermott is Joe Harris on steroids.

[NashvilleDevil]

My one concern is that last year one player killed us and led to our defeat. This year Creighton has a much better player.

Does McDermott create like CJ? I think Duke can contain him and if they don't I hope they let him score and don't let the rest of the team beat them like Arizona in 11

[freshmanjs]

Wow, if this loss this weekend didn't cost us dearly then I don't know.
This bracket is brutal and if our guys are not woken up now after what has happened then nothing will.
The good news is that when looking at all those teams individually, we can beat all of them if we play like we did against UNC, if we don't then we won't get very far.
There is also hope for a few upsets that could favor us on the way to the final four.
I sure hope our guys got the message given to them.

i don't agree. kansas has to deal with unc-vill and then michigan. indiana has ncsu/temple and then syracuse. i don't think creighton / msu is obviously harder. we have a fair draw. if we play well, we have an excellent chance for a successfiul run.

[pfrduke]

They just announced the order for the 2 seeds

1 - Miami
2 - Duke
3 - Georgetown
4 - Ohio State

[FerryFor50]

Does McDermott create like CJ? I think Duke can contain him and if they don't I hope they let him score and don't let the rest of the team beat them like Arizona in 11

McDermott is not the slasher CJ is... But he can create. And shoot. And rebound. Legit NBA prospect... Definitely someone to worry about. Remember Wally Sczerbiak taking down Washington and Utah by himself?

[Chris Randolph]

I'm more concerned about Albany than anything else. Better have our 'A' game

[pfrduke]

They just announced the order for the 2 seeds

1 - Miami
2 - Duke
3 - Georgetown
4 - Ohio State

So, essentially they lined it up with 1 vs. 6, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 5, and 4 vs. 8.

[FerryFor50]

i don't agree. kansas has to deal with unc-vill and then michigan. indiana has ncsu/temple and then syracuse. i don't think creighton / msu is obviously harder. we have a fair draw. if we play well, we have an excellent chance for a successfiul run.

Who does Gonzaga legitimately have to worry about?

[freshmanjs]

Who does Gonzaga legitimately have to worry about?

i do agree that the west bracket look weaker.

[sporthenry]

McDermott is not the slasher CJ is... But he can create. And shoot. And rebound. Legit NBA prospect... Definitely someone to worry about. Remember Wally Sczerbiak taking down Washington and Utah by himself?

Sure, every 2nd round match up will probably be tough for all teams. UNC, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, etc. don't seem like typical 2nd round match ups. Heck, I'm not so sure Creighton gets by Cincy.

Sure McDermott is good but Duke usually plays well against mid-majors and will they have the depth up front. I remember we went after Echenique so he is a solid C but he is no Mason. Can he guard Mason?

[throatybeard]

Who does Gonzaga legitimately have to worry about?

Pittsburgh...in the Round of 32.

[sporthenry]

Who does Gonzaga legitimately have to worry about?

Pittsburgh? Kenpom #7 team? Wisconsin? K-State is a good team. And on the other side, OSU, NM and Arizona are no slouches. Easier? Sure. Easy? No.

[FerryFor50]

Pittsburgh...in the Round of 32.

That all depends on who officiates the game. If they "let em play," (big east style) the Zags are in trouble. If it's called by the book, the Zags roll.

[FerryFor50]

Pittsburgh? Kenpom #7 team? Wisconsin? K-State is a good team. And on the other side, OSU, NM and Arizona are no slouches. Easier? Sure. Easy? No.

Easiest? Yes.

I'd take that bracket any day.

[subzero02]

First glance, there are no teams in this bracket that have top notch penetrating point guard that we could have difficulty with.

I like our matchups against Creighton, MSU...and it helps having already played and beaten the #1 seed in our draw.

Very good points

[FerryFor50]

Very good points

UVA and Maryland also did not have penetrating PGs. But they did have players that scored 30+ against us.

I see a 7 seed that concerns me greatly.

[sporthenry]

Easiest? Yes.

I'd take that bracket any day.

Yeah, but coaches have been adamant that they'd prefer to stay closer to home than go out West. They'd prefer MSU in Indy than Arizona/NM in LA.

I've always preferred the easier route but with upsets, the hardest route usually opens up to be easier and vice versa. And coaches say they want location, so this is what we get.

[NashvilleDevil]

McDermott is not the slasher CJ is... But he can create. And shoot. And rebound. Legit NBA prospect... Definitely someone to worry about. Remember Wally Sczerbiak taking down Washington and Utah by himself?

Wally is a good comp. I don't follow Creighton like I did when I was at school in Nebraska. I know he's good and Creighton has always performed well in the tournament but they just don't strike fear in me as a fan. Michigan St as a Sweet 16 matchup is a different story.

[FerryFor50]

Yeah, but coaches have been adamant that they'd prefer to stay closer to home than go out West. They'd prefer MSU in Indy than Arizona/NM in LA.

I've always preferred the easier route but with upsets, the hardest route usually opens up to be easier and vice versa. And coaches say they want location, so this is what we get.

I'd take location if it were DC. But Miami, KU and L'ville did not cooperate this weekend. Jerks. :p

[Class of '94]

I just heard Charles Barkley on Tru TV's NCAAT special list 5 coaches (three of which were Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo and John Calipari) as the 5 best coaches in the college game in terms of making in-game adjustments; and K was not mentioned as one of them. I also heard Rex Chapman on the same show say that he thought Rick Pitino was the best coach in the NCAAT field. WTF?

I know I'm biased towards Duke; but how can the coach with the most wins in college basketball and most National Championships among active coaches not be considered the best coach in the tournament field as well as one of the top 5 best in game adjustment coaches? And if I recall, K has beaten both Calipari and Pitino this season; and beat Izzo last year (and has a dominant winning record over Izzo in K's career). Also, all three commentators (Barkley, Steve Smith and Rex Chapman) picked Louisville as the clear lock to make the Final 4. I know K isn't the best at everything; but the to not mention K in any of these discussions as well as to dismiss Duke (who was talked about as a number 1 seed for most of the season) so easily is amazing to me.

[arnie]

I'm more concerned about Albany than anything else. Better have our 'A' game

Thank you for the reality check. If we're sluggish again we can loose to Albany! Poor shooting and strange subbing patterns could do us in. Hope we come out driving the ball to the basket.

[sporthenry]

UVA and Maryland also did not have penetrating PGs. But they did have players that scored 30+ against us.

I see a 7 seed that concerns me greatly.

What 7-10 seed wouldn't concern you at least a bit. Notre Dame who beat Louisville? Nova who beat Marquette, Louisville and Syracuse? UNC and NC State (I'm aware we couldn't play them). Mizzou who beat Florida? ISU and Illinois?

I guess we can nitpick and hope for the worst 7 and 10 seeds, but it isn't realistic. And if Duke wants to win it all, then they are going to have to beat much better teams than Creighton.

[FerryFor50]

Wally is a good comp. I don't follow Creighton like I did when I was at school in Nebraska. I know he's good and Creighton has always performed well in the tournament but they just don't strike fear in me as a fan. Michigan St as a Sweet 16 matchup is a different story.

I'm less worried about Mich St because they can have issues scoring. Nix is a beast, but I think Mason can handle him. I do worry about their guards, the physicality of their style of play and their seemingly magical runs in March.

[Blue Man]

Duke got what we deserved. Our interior defense has had huge holes in it and unless they get plugged we do not make it to 16. Maryland was not a fluke. We shot the 3 ball poorly but the killer was interior defense. This is not the Duke defense of past teams but is K is a master at bringing out the best in a team when needed. No cryin hear about the draw. Just after we hammered Carolina at their home everybody was saying Duke is the #1 seed and then one game later we are a weak 2. So here's hoping for K pulling a rabbit out of the hat.

[FerryFor50]

What 7-10 seed wouldn't concern you at least a bit. Notre Dame who beat Louisville? Nova who beat Marquette, Louisville and Syracuse? UNC and NC State (I'm aware we couldn't play them). Mizzou who beat Florida? ISU and Illinois?

I guess we can nitpick and hope for the worst 7 and 10 seeds, but it isn't realistic. And if Duke wants to win it all, then they are going to have to beat much better teams than Creighton.

I'd take any of the teams you mentioned over a potential matchup with Creighton.

March madness is built for teams with great individual players to take down top seeds. None of the other teams mentioned other than Mizzou with Pressey have that.

[ice-9]

Sure, every 2nd round match up will probably be tough for all teams. UNC, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, etc. don't seem like typical 2nd round match ups.

I've got Iowa State beating Notre Dame. Those two teams are closer than most people think. Iowa St is way under the radar and actually took Kansas to overtime twice.

[FerryFor50]

I've got Iowa State beating Notre Dame. Those two teams are closer than most people think. Iowa St is way under the radar and actually took Kansas to overtime twice.

Iowa St can be dangerous, provided they hit their 3s. 42% of all of their shots come from 3...

[sporthenry]

I've got Iowa State beating Notre Dame. Those two teams are closer than most people think. Iowa St is way under the radar and actually took Kansas to overtime twice.

Wasn't meant to be an extensive list and I mentioned Iowa State later. Just my point is that all of those teams will be able to beat the top 1 or 2 seeds if they don't show up.

[NashvilleDevil]

I'm less worried about Mich St because they can have issues scoring. Nix is a beast, but I think Mason can handle him. I do worry about their guards, the physicality of their style of play and their seemingly magical runs in March.

Was it '05 when MSU beat Duke in the sweet 16? That and Izzo's track record in the tourney is why Michigan St is my real concern in this region. Louisville has underperformed several times under Pitino in the tourney.

[sporthenry]

I'd take any of the teams you mentioned over a potential matchup with Creighton.

March madness is built for teams with great individual players to take down top seeds. None of the other teams mentioned other than Mizzou with Pressey have that.

Well all of these teams have guys who are or could be great. Paul with Illinois. Kilpatrick with Cincy, Wyatt with Temple who went off against Duke as they beat Duke last year.

And Northern Iowa versus KU didn't really have someone go off to beat KU. I'm not overly concerned with Creighton. I'm concerned, I just don't think they pose a huge problem. Maybe it is a slightly harder game than if it were ND or ISU but nobody is really saying Creighton is criminally underseeded as a 7 and at some point, you have to beat good teams. If Duke wants to be the best team in the country, which people on here though 1 week ago, then they have to beat teams like Creighton especially when they have a much easier game 2 days before.

[gcashwell]

If I was picking with my mind, I might pick St. Louis. Those guys are old, tough, and good. I think they beat Louisville and could outmuscle duke.

My heart says Duke wins every game by 20 in the greatest run of all time.

[gam7]

If Ryan Kelly was 100%, I'd love the match-up with Creighton. He has the ability to defend him inside and out. With Kelly not 100%, that would be tough. Gotta get by Albany first. Have they been back to the tourney since they gave UConn a legit scare for 30 minutes in '06 as a 16 seed?

I've seen references to Kelly not being 100% a couple of times - what's the story there? Did he aggravate the foot? Or, is it just that he hasn't played too many games since returning?

[MB in MD]

They just announced the order for the 2 seeds

1 - Miami
2 - Duke
3 - Georgetown
4 - Ohio State

Right. And the ESPN talking head Sheheen, who previously ran the selection, indicated that in addition to geography, a major factor in the pairings is the rule that you have to split up the top 3 teams from a conference. So between Georgetown and Louisville, and Ohio State, Indiana and MSU, plus geography, there weren't a whole lot of options. I didn't try moving all the tokens around to see how we could have made out better, but it seems fair even if the path is hard. I was just satisfied that we didn't drop all the way to an 8 seed, which seemed something of an overreaction to the egg we laid vs MD.

[NashvilleDevil]

I just heard Charles Barkley on Tru TV's NCAAT special list 5 coaches (three of which were Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo and John Calipari) as the 5 best coaches in the college game in terms of making in-game adjustments; and K was not mentioned as one of them. I also heard Rex Chapman on the same show say that he thought Rick Pitino was the best coach in the NCAAT field. WTF?

I know I'm biased towards Duke; but how can the coach with the most wins in college basketball and most National Championships among active coaches not be considered the best coach in the tournament field as well as one of the top 5 best in game adjustment coaches? And if I recall, K has beaten both Calipari and Pitino this season; and beat Izzo last year (and has a dominant winning record over Izzo in K's career). Also, all three commentators (Barkley, Steve Smith and Rex Chapman) picked Louisville as the clear lock to make the Final 4. I know K isn't the best at everything; but the to not mention K in any of these discussions as well as to dismiss Duke (who was talked about as a number 1 seed for most of the season) so easily is amazing to me.

Yes you're missing that these guys don't follow college basketball until today.

[FerryFor50]

Well all of these teams have guys who are or could be great. Paul with Illinois. Kilpatrick with Cincy, Wyatt with Temple who went off against Duke as they beat Duke last year.

And Northern Iowa versus KU didn't really have someone go off to beat KU. I'm not overly concerned with Creighton. I'm concerned, I just don't think they pose a huge problem. Maybe it is a slightly harder game than if it were ND or ISU but nobody is really saying Creighton is criminally underseeded as a 7 and at some point, you have to beat good teams. If Duke wants to be the best team in the country, which people on here though 1 week ago, then they have to beat teams like Creighton especially when they have a much easier game 2 days before.

I don't think Creighton is underseeded. I think they are a perennial 7 seed. But I have a firm belief that this year's Duke team is most susceptible to the Sczerbiak effect, where one player can take them down on their own with a career game. Heck, think back to the past two tournaments.

CJ McCollum
Derek Williams

Those guys have an off night, we have better stories to tell. And they ended up having off nights their next game.

McCollum had 14 points on 5-22 shooting against Xavier.
Williams went 4-14 for 17 points against Texas. Not terrible but also not 32.

Dez Wells and Joe Harris reaffirmed that fear for me this season.

[NM Duke Fan]

If I was picking with my mind, I might pick St. Louis. Those guys are old, tough, and good. I think they beat Louisville and could outmuscle duke.

My heart says Duke wins every game by 20 in the greatest run of all time.

I usually pick with my heart, but the Maryland game switched my picking modus operandi to my mind. Thus, I chose St. Louis, who beat Butler 3 times this season and are indeed tough, and play like men.

[NashvilleDevil]

I don't think Creighton is underseeded. I think they are a perennial 7 seed. But I have a firm belief that this year's Duke team is most susceptible to the Sczerbiak effect, where one player can take them down on their own with a career game. Heck, think back to the past two tournaments.

CJ McCollum
Derek Williams

Those guys have an off night, we have better stories to tell. And they ended up having off nights their next game.

McCollum had 14 points on 5-22 shooting against Xavier.
Williams went 4-14 for 17 points against Texas. Not terrible but also not 32.

Dez Wells and Joe Harris reaffirmed that fear for me this season.

Don't you think part of the problem with Williams was in the 2nd half Duke put all of its effort to stopping him and the other guys couldn't miss? I think Williams went for 25 in the first half and Duke was leading by 6 and then in the 2nd half all the guys that couldn't shoot started making everything. So if Doug gets going do you think Duke let's him have his and makes it tough for anyone else to score?

[FerryFor50]

Don't you think part of the problem with Williams was in the 2nd half Duke put all of its effort to stopping him and the other guys couldn't miss? I think Williams went for 25 in the first half and Duke was leading by 6 and then in the 2nd half all the guys that couldn't shoot started making everything.

Well, if Williams doesn't have a career game in the first HALF we don't have to deviate and likely win going away.

The guys that couldn't shoot in the first found themselves very open in the 2nd.

[Lauderdevil]

Two games took us from the overall number one seed to the bracket we got: the Miami pasting and the no-show in the ACC Tourney. No one on the Committee was bothered by close road losses to State, Maryland and Virginia -- that's going to happen in conference play, particularly with Ryan out. And otherwise, it's been a spectacular season -- just spectacular. But the Miami game made everyone deeply suspicious about Duke, and the ACC Tourney result confirmed those suspicions. In the end, none of it matters if we can win six in a row.

[Chris Randolph]

Better start talking about Albany. Don't get Lehigh-ed

[NashvilleDevil]

Well, if Williams doesn't have a career game in the first HALF we don't have to deviate and likely win going away.

The guys that couldn't shoot in the first found themselves very open in the 2nd.

Because Duke focused all their energy on Williams. He was phenomenal in the first half and Duke still had a 6-7 point lead at half after he hit that 30 footer at the buzzer. I still think Coach K panicked a little and tried to shut him down and it backfired.

[NM Duke Fan]

I don't think Creighton is underseeded. I think they are a perennial 7 seed. But I have a firm belief that this year's Duke team is most susceptible to the Sczerbiak effect, where one player can take them down on their own with a career game. Heck, think back to the past two tournaments.

CJ McCollum
Derek Williams

Those guys have an off night, we have better stories to tell. And they ended up having off nights their next game.

McCollum had 14 points on 5-22 shooting against Xavier.
Williams went 4-14 for 17 points against Texas. Not terrible but also not 32.

Dez Wells and Joe Harris reaffirmed that fear for me this season.

I completely agree with your post, there are plenty of recent instances of one player having the game of his life, and Duke has not had the Battier/Grant Hill level of lock down defender to stop him.

[CLW]

I got a BAD feeling about surviving the 1st weekend. Creighton/Cinci both scare me for the exact opposite reasons. The Blue Jays have McDermitt and Cinci just plays physical defense. IF we survive the 1st 2 games I actually like our chances but I just don't like the way the team came out and layed an egg against the Terps.

[FerryFor50]

Because Duke focused all their energy on Williams. He was phenomenal in the first half and Duke still had a 6-7 point lead at half after he hit that 30 footer at the buzzer. I still think Coach K panicked a little and tried to shut him down and it backfired.

Oh I agree, but it's cause/effect. :)

[sporthenry]

I don't think Creighton is underseeded. I think they are a perennial 7 seed. But I have a firm belief that this year's Duke team is most susceptible to the Sczerbiak effect, where one player can take them down on their own with a career game. Heck, think back to the past two tournaments.

CJ McCollum
Derek Williams

Those guys have an off night, we have better stories to tell. And they ended up having off nights their next game.

McCollum had 14 points on 5-22 shooting against Xavier.
Williams went 4-14 for 17 points against Texas. Not terrible but also not 32.

Dez Wells and Joe Harris reaffirmed that fear for me this season.

Yeah, but my main point is that anyone could do it. I don't think many would put Dez Wells in the same category as those already mentioned. Same thing with Wyatt last year when Temple beat Duke. Kilpatrick with Cincy, Franklin with SDSU, Osby with Oklahoma, etc. I don't disagree that it takes a big game from some of their best players, but everyone has someone capable of taking a game over. Perhaps McDermott is better than the others but he also isn't the typical player who has dominated Duke.

[ynotme32]

I know we are all down about the MD game, and we are worried about teams who have a player who can "take over" a game, but lets not sell Duke short, we have the ability to put 5 guys on the floor at the same time ALL of who can take over a game (each has scored 20+ in a game this year). I am not worried about other players, our guys can do it and will do it!

[FerryFor50]

Yeah, but my main point is that anyone could do it. I don't think many would put Dez Wells in the same category as those already mentioned. Same thing with Wyatt last year when Temple beat Duke. Kilpatrick with Cincy, Franklin with SDSU, Osby with Oklahoma, etc. I don't disagree that it takes a big game from some of their best players, but everyone has someone capable of taking a game over. Perhaps McDermott is better than the others but he also isn't the typical player who has dominated Duke.

He reminds me of a better Joe Harris, who dominated Duke to the tune of 36 points.

But I see your point... I just worry less about those other guys. (other than Paul from Illinois. Forgot about him)

[Duke76]

I just heard Charles Barkley on Tru TV's NCAAT special list 5 coaches (three of which were Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo and John Calipari) as the 5 best coaches in the college game in terms of making in-game adjustments; and K was not mentioned as one of them. I also heard Rex Chapman on the same show say that he thought Rick Pitino was the best coach in the NCAAT field. WTF?

I know I'm biased towards Duke; but how can the coach with the most wins in college basketball and most National Championships among active coaches not be considered the best coach in the tournament field as well as one of the top 5 best in game adjustment coaches? And if I recall, K has beaten both Calipari and Pitino this season; and beat Izzo last year (and has a dominant winning record over Izzo in K's career). Also, all three commentators (Barkley, Steve Smith and Rex Chapman) picked Louisville as the clear lock to make the Final 4. I know K isn't the best at everything; but the to not mention K in any of these discussions as well as to dismiss Duke (who was talked about as a number 1 seed for most of the season) so easily is amazing to me.

none of the so called experts on cbs or espn will pick Duke to get to the Final Four...half will pick MSU to beat us in the sweet 16...the matra this year will be "we are soft and slow".....in other years it will be got "the easiest draw"

never fails but I like this position better...little to no pressure relatively speaking

[sporthenry]

He reminds me of a better Joe Harris, who dominated Duke to the tune of 36 points.

But I see your point... I just worry less about those other guys. (other than Paul from Illinois. Forgot about him)

Sure, without our supposed best defender with Kelly. Not to mention, Harris was a more difficult match up b/c he was a true wing. McDermott is a 4 and I think Kelly will give him fits on offense and defense. And best defense is sometimes to make the other guy guard. And I think even if he can get Kelly in foul trouble, I think Amile and even Josh would defend well.

[jipops]

I've seen references to Kelly not being 100% a couple of times - what's the story there? Did he aggravate the foot? Or, is it just that he hasn't played too many games since returning?

I think it's in reference to him being out of shape. He was noticeably winded in the Va Tech and UNC game and seemed slow to me getting up and down the floor against Maryland.

It takes so long to get in shape and only takes a little while to get out of it. So given Ryan was out for 2 months, well...

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Here's some brief tournament thumbnails for the Midwest Region:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaab--ncaa-tournament-capsules--midwest-region-224040027.html

[FerryFor50]

As I filled out my first bracket, I noticed something else that stinks about Duke's draw - the potential to see a top team for a 2nd time earlier than the national championship game.

Duke not only gets L'ville, which it played early this season, as its #1, but there is also a very real possibility should they be fortunate to get to the final four that they would see Ohio St again.

Don't like the idea of seeing a top non-conference team twice in the same season...

[arnie]

Here's some brief tournament thumbnails for the Midwest Region:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaab--ncaa-tournament-capsules--midwest-region-224040027.html

Bad feeling if we play Cincy. They could end both our football and bball seasons

[NashvilleDevil]

As I filled out my first bracket, I noticed something else that stinks about Duke's draw - the potential to see a top team for a 2nd time earlier than the national championship game.

Duke not only gets L'ville, which it played early this season, as its #1, but there is also a very real possibility should they be fortunate to get to the final four that they would see Ohio St again.

Don't like the idea of seeing a top non-conference team twice in the same season...

I think Ohio St is limited offensively and if Duke makes it to Atlanta you could see another shooting display like they had against West Virginia in 2010.

My one real concern about Duke winning it all is that the Final Four is not in Indy or Minneapolis

[Potato]

I'm kinda surprised we're in the midwest, but I'd rather be here than the South. Ouch, that's the Bracket of Death. You have to play the hand you've been dealt, I think Duke got somewhat of a raw-deal but I still think Duke has the potential to beat any team in the country on any given night. Time to go to work.

[_Gary]

none of the so called experts on cbs or espn will pick Duke to get to the Final Four...half will pick MSU to beat us in the sweet 16...the matra this year will be "we are soft and slow".....in other years it will be got "the easiest draw"

never fails but I like this position better...little to no pressure relatively speaking

Agreed. I much prefer Duke being a chaser and not the chased. I'm not going to lie, this bracket is about as tough as any I can ever remember (clearly the toughest this year), and I do despise having to potentially meet a #1 seed we've already beaten earlier in the year. I've never been a fan of rematches when my team won the regular season meeting. But at this point I think this bracket is so difficult it's way too early to be thinking about a Duke/Louisville Elite Eight battle. Both teams will be pressed hard before that.

[sporthenry]

As I filled out my first bracket, I noticed something else that stinks about Duke's draw - the potential to see a top team for a 2nd time earlier than the national championship game.

Duke not only gets L'ville, which it played early this season, as its #1, but there is also a very real possibility should they be fortunate to get to the final four that they would see Ohio St again.

Don't like the idea of seeing a top non-conference team twice in the same season...

I'm not really worried about OSU that much. Any team in the F4 is going to be tough and I still don't think OSU is a top 10 team. We lucked out a bit when we beat them earlier that Thomas went out in foul trouble and looked out of sync coming back and allowed Duke to build a lead. Of course a game with them will still be tough but I have no faith in Craft but I guess Thomas could pull a Derrick Williams. But if you told me Duke had to face Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Miami or OSU in the F4, I'll take OSU.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I think Ohio St is limited offensively and if Duke makes it to Atlanta you could see another shooting display like they had against West Virginia in 2010.

My one real concern about Duke winning it all is that the Final Four is not in Indy or Minneapolis

The big weakness of the B1G teams is most of them can't score. OSU scored 50 today and won the B1GT. Think about that.

MSU is scary because of Izzo and his past tournament success. If not for him, I'd expect Duke to make the Elite 8 without much drama involved. I think if Duke and MSU meet in the Sweet 16 - it's a 50/50 ballgame with an advantage to MSU because of proximity.

[throatybeard]

I'm really worried we're going to make the Final Four and then have to play a good team in the National Semifinal.

[FerryFor50]

I'm not really worried about OSU that much. Any team in the F4 is going to be tough and I still don't think OSU is a top 10 team. We lucked out a bit when we beat them earlier that Thomas went out in foul trouble and looked out of sync coming back and allowed Duke to build a lead. Of course a game with them will still be tough but I have no faith in Craft but I guess Thomas could pull a Derrick Williams. But if you told me Duke had to face Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Miami or OSU in the F4, I'll take OSU.

I'd take Florida out of those. I am not a Gator believer.

[ynotme32]

One more thing that no one has mentioned, is Duke has more time to prepare for Creighton/Cincy then they will for Duke. I'm guessing they will put together a game plan for Duke but not actually get to practice it much. I have a feeling Duke will have something ready for both Creighton and Cincy early this week and will work on it a lot.

[FerryFor50]

I'm really worried we're going to make the Final Four and then have to play a good team in the National Semifinal.

I'm worried there isn't enough sarcasm in your post. :p

[Potato]

wow on espn not a single one even had us in the elite 8 and a week ago duke was the team to beat, and one bad game it's like we don't even have a shot anymore. ridiculous. let's hope we can prove 'em wrong

[_Gary]

Wow, all five ESPN analysts (including Jay and Jason) are picking MSU to knock us off and meet Louisville. I'm liking our chances more and more with all these guys giving us no love and no respect. We go from being an overall #1 seed just a few days ago to being a weak #2 that can't even advance to the Elite Eight. Bring it on!

Go Duke!!

[Bluedog]

wow on espn not a single one even had us in the elite 8 and a week ago duke was the team to beat, and one bad game it's like we don't even have a shot anymore. ridiculous. let's hope we can prove 'em wrong

Yeah, I noticed that too. EVERYBODY has MSU over us whereas last week everybody was talking about how with Kelly we're clearly the best team in the country. I personally like playing more of the underdog role than the reverse. Last week, many projected brackets has us as #1 in the East with Louisville as our 2, so we've just reversed it and changed the setting to Indy. Let's get it done!

[sporthenry]

wow on espn not a single one even had us in the elite 8 and a week ago duke was the team to beat, and one bad game it's like we don't even have a shot anymore. ridiculous. let's hope we can prove 'em wrong

Honestly, the more I listen to the experts, the more I realize they aren't that more knowledgeable than the average fan. They just jump on the hot team and don't provide much insight. I'm taping it to watch it later and imagine I'll just be more upset. They might provide a bit insight to some of the lesser known teams like a Montana but as far as Louisville/Duke, I'm not going to trust them anymore than others.

[MB in MD]

Wow, all five ESPN analysts (including Jay and Jason) are picking MSU to knock us off and meet Louisville. I'm liking our chances more and more with all these guys giving us no love and no respect. We go from being an overall #1 seed just a few days ago to being a weak #2 that can't even advance to the Elite Eight. Bring it on!

Go Duke!!

The best news is that Digger picked against us.

[davekay1971]

Wow, all five ESPN analysts (including Jay and Jason) are picking MSU to knock us off and meet Louisville. I'm liking our chances more and more with all these guys giving us no love and no respect. We go from being an overall #1 seed just a few days ago to being a weak #2 that can't even advance to the Elite Eight. Bring it on!

Go Duke!!

They're like half the people who post on DBR...

[Dukeblue91]

I actually like the idea that we are the underdog this time around, the same mistake was done in 2010.
Also all the disrespect towards duke can be used by Coach K to kick the team in the rear and motivate the heck out of them.
Look the thing is when we play Duke basketball like we can, we can beat anyone and we should scare any team having to play us.

[hurleyfor3]

I'm really worried we're going to make the Final Four and then have to play a good team in the National Semifinal.

First-world problem.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=3275&d=1363569392

[NSDukeFan]

I'm really worried we're going to make the Final Four and then have to play a good team in the National Semifinal.

I'm getting even more scared about how good the team in the final might be.

[weezie]

MSU is scary because of Izzo and his past tournament success.

Yes, but...this year's Sparty team isn't exactly the brightest bunch of fellows. They were darned pitiful in their last game against the wolverine, totally blowing the last time out advice that Izzo was screaming at them. There comes a time when you can't (as opposed to won't) look at the bench even if you are anxious as a player.

[wallyman]

I hope we beat Mich State if either of us gets there, and figure it's a 50-50 game if it happens. And, yes, the "experts" don't know a lot more than what they saw at the last game. But sometimes one loss is more than one loss. Before the Md. game everyone was in thrall to the undefeated-with-Ryan-Kelly storyline as if we were some unstoppable juggernaut. Then they saw us lay a huge egg with Ryan Kelly against an unranked bubble team. So who knows which storyline was worse -- the unstoppable juggernaut or the doomed #2, but you would have to be wearing very blue glasses or to be a fool to just blithely write off the Md. game as move along; nothing to see here.

[gwlaw99]

If you care, Feinstein (www.washingtonpost.com/louisville-duke-a-dream-regional-final-that-may-only-be-a-dream/2013/03/17/fc2c3c72-8e65-11e2-9f54-f3fdd70acad2_story.html) picks us to lose to MSU

[jv001]

My biggest worry isn't MSU but those early games where we don't come out with the intensity we must have to win a championship. MSU is not the same team Izzo usually has in the NCAAT. Appling is not an elite point guard and can be inconsistent. Like I said in an earlier post, we have to play every play with urgency. Much like Tyler does on every play. If our more talented players had that intensity we might be undefeated. GoDuke!

[dukeballboy88]

Im glad we got MSU as the 3 in our bracket. They play their games in the 50's and 60's and I dont see anyone on that roster that could go for 40 and put the team on their back. Seriously, if we sleep walk like we did Friday night, we still score 60. Im more worried about a team like Memphis. That coach just rolls the ball out and says play plus Joe Jackson can ball. I think we handle MSU if they get there.

[burns15]

Im glad we got MSU as the 3 in our bracket. They play their games in the 50's and 60's and I dont see anyone on that roster that could go for 40 and put the team on their back. Seriously, if we sleep walk like we did Friday night, we still score 60. Im more worried about a team like Memphis. That coach just rolls the ball out and says play plus Joe Jackson can ball. I think we handle MSU if they get there.

and if WE get there

[dukeballboy88]

and if WE get there

That is very true but I really feel like we should beat Creighton and Cincy even if they combined the 2 teams. After watching both teams several times this year, I just dont see them beating Duke. I think Cincy would be a tougher task just because the level of comp they faced night in and night out.

[wallyman]

If you care, Feinstein (www.washingtonpost.com/louisville-duke-a-dream-regional-final-that-may-only-be-a-dream/2013/03/17/fc2c3c72-8e65-11e2-9f54-f3fdd70acad2_story.html) picks us to lose to MSU

If there's anyone whose opinion merits an I Don't Care, it's John Feinstein's.

[mr. synellinden]

Jeff Goodman still believes in Duke: a tweet of his:

That potential Louisville-Duke Elite Eight matchup should have been in the Final Four, maybe even in the title game.

[throatybeard]

If there's anyone whose opinion merits an I Don't Care, it's John Feinstein's.

I understand linking it, but yeah, when I see a sentence and Feinstein is the subject, I usually skip the predicate.

[Potato]

Honestly, the more I listen to the experts, the more I realize they aren't that more knowledgeable than the average fan. They just jump on the hot team and don't provide much insight. I'm taping it to watch it later and imagine I'll just be more upset. They might provide a bit insight to some of the lesser known teams like a Montana but as far as Louisville/Duke, I'm not going to trust them anymore than others.

I agree with this also. Although I'm a big fan of Jay Bilas.... he's by far my favorite analyst. I just don't think Michigan State has the leadership that has allowed them to go on past runs this year... and on the other hand we have as much leadership and experience as any other team in the nation. that could play a big factor in this tournament. but on paper duke is better than msu, yet every single one of them had msu beating us. but we have to get there first. we've struggled in the second round in the past

[OldPhiKap]

MSU and Louisville would both be tough matches if form holds. But if we do not survive the first weekend, it is pointless speculation.

Gotta take care of our own business, worry about those teams if it happens. We could be done by this time next week if we do not dig deep and put it all out there.

[Greg_Newton]

Didn't want to start a whole new thread, but are we doing a DBR bracket pool this year?

[MaxAMillion]

MSU and Louisville would both be tough matches if form holds. But if we do not survive the first weekend, it is pointless speculation.

Gotta take care of our own business, worry about those teams if it happens. We could be done by this time next week if we do not dig deep and put it all out there.

That is my big concern. After Lehigh, I won't assume that any game is a layup. If the team comes out and plays Albany like they did against Maryland, they could lose their first game.

[throatybeard]

That is my big concern. After Lehigh, I won't assume that any game is a layup. If the team comes out and plays Albany like they did against Maryland, they could lose their first game.

Yes, and people forget that it's not just Lehigh. We barely beat MVSU (1986), Murray State (1997) and Belmont (2008).

[NashvilleDevil]

Yes, and people forget that it's not just Lehigh. We barely beat MVSU (1986), Murray State (1997) and Belmont (2008).

People don't forget and those are good reminders that nothing is guaranteed but why dwell on the past? Duke is going to beat Albany by 20+ points and will win their second round game by a comfortable margin as well.

[licc85]

Way too many people are underrating Creighton. They are 7th in offensive efficiency, have a 59.1 effective field goal percentage, a guy who can drop 40 at any time, (We've had an issue with guys having career numbers against us in losses this year), a very good passer in Grant Gibbs, and one of the best post defenders out there in Greg Echenique. These guys are a top 15 team in the country, and are by far the strongest 7 seed. On top of that, how can you ever call Michigan State an easy out? They ALWAYS take their game to another level in the NCAA tournament. NEVER bet against a hall of fame coach like Tom Izzo. Anyone who thinks our path is easy needs to have their head checked.

[throatybeard]

Greg Echenique

I know I haven't but I feel like I've been hearing that guy's name every year since I graduated. With Wojo.

[Greg_Newton]

Agreed about Creighton - can anyone who's watching them give us a scouting report on how they play? Specifically curious:

-Do they play physical, bruising defense like Butler?

-Do they pressure and take away the three or play more of a packline?

-Do they run a motion offense with a lot of movement and screens, or do they rely more on pick and rolls and one on one?

-Do they get most of their points from threes/penetration/post scoring?

They scare me too (computers have them as a 4-5 seed), but for a team of that caliber, it seems like we might match up with them fairly well.

[Greg_Newton]

Also, Albany is nowhere near as good as Lehigh was last year. Albany is barely in the top 150, whereas Lehigh was ranked where Vanderbilt is this year.

[BigZ]

Weird that we are playing early game?

[Greg_Newton]

To answer a few of my own questions, it looks like (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/stats/):

-They are an insanely good shooting team. They are first in the country in virtually every shooting statistic, including FG%, 2PT%, 3PT%, True shooting % and eFG%, most by a huge margin.

-They must play some kind of motion and pass a lot, because they're #12 in the country in assists per FG. Opponents get a fair amount of steals from them, though.

-They are a terrible offensive rebounding team (#224) and extremely good defensive rebounding team (#20).

-They don't draw many fouls (#171 in FTs/possession).

-They foul a lot (#16 in opposing FTs/possession).

-Opponents average 6-19 3PT against them. Not sure what that means, exactly - may just be a function of weak competition?

-Their adjusted offensive rating is elite (#6), defensive is very bad (#78), tempo is on the slowish end (#213)

------------------------------------------------

All in all, it seems like Duke's most consistent strengths - 3PT shooting and 3PT defense - match up well with them, as do our biggest weaknesses - defensive rebounding and containing dribble penetration.

[Struggling golfer]

I'm not really worried about OSU that much. Any team in the F4 is going to be tough and I still don't think OSU is a top 10 team. We lucked out a bit when we beat them earlier that Thomas went out in foul trouble and looked out of sync coming back and allowed Duke to build a lead. Of course a game with them will still be tough but I have no faith in Craft but I guess Thomas could pull a Derrick Williams. But if you told me Duke had to face Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Miami or OSU in the F4, I'll take OSU.

How the heck can you be thinking about Ohio State ? If I am correct, in order for Duke to play Ohio State it would be in a Final 4 game. How about thinking about Albany, Cincy or Creighton...that worries me.

[Struggling golfer]

Yeah, I noticed that too. EVERYBODY has MSU over us whereas last week everybody was talking about how with Kelly we're clearly the best team in the country. I personally like playing more of the underdog role than the reverse. Last week, many projected brackets has us as #1 in the East with Louisville as our 2, so we've just reversed it and changed the setting to Indy. Let's get it done!

If we ever get to play MSU, the odds makers will make us the favorites, so we will not be underdogs. Why is everyone so focused on MSU ? We are going to have a very tough time with either Creighton or Cincy and could lose to either one.

[Struggling golfer]

I actually like the idea that we are the underdog this time around, the same mistake was done in 2010.
Also all the disrespect towards duke can be used by Coach K to kick the team in the rear and motivate the heck out of them.
Look the thing is when we play Duke basketball like we can, we can beat anyone and we should scare any team having to play us.

I agree with your last sentence.

[Struggling golfer]

I don't think Creighton is underseeded. I think they are a perennial 7 seed. But I have a firm belief that this year's Duke team is most susceptible to the Sczerbiak effect, where one player can take them down on their own with a career game. Heck, think back to the past two tournaments.

CJ McCollum
Derek Williams

Those guys have an off night, we have better stories to tell. And they ended up having off nights their next game.

McCollum had 14 points on 5-22 shooting against Xavier.
Williams went 4-14 for 17 points against Texas. Not terrible but also not 32.

Dez Wells and Joe Harris reaffirmed that fear for me this season.

I could not have said it any better. It is exactly my thoughts. McDermott is better than McCollum, Williams, Harris and Wells and has a better supporting cast than McCollum, Harris and Wells had.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

While some here may underestimate the challenge of early round opponents, I am comforted by the thought that Coach K never would. And i'm sure he has ample material gathered at this point to ensure his team is focused and motivated. I think many here and elsewhere underestimate the advantage we have of three senior leaders who surely are feeling stung by that unceremonious dismissal from the ACCT (not to mention 2012 NCAAT). Simply cannot imagine the team will not be well prepared and highly motivated.

[JNort]

We got the best bracket by far! This is possibly the easiest one I have seen in a long time, I will be highly disappointed if we don't make the Elite 8. Only team I worry about a bit is UL and I'm not worried about MSU but you cant sleep on them. As a side bonus I don't remember the last time I saw a bracket as hard as the one UNC is in ;) so that s a reason to cheer.

[MCFinARL]

If we ever get to play MSU, the odds makers will make us the favorites, so we will not be underdogs. Why is everyone so focused on MSU ? We are going to have a very tough time with either Creighton or Cincy and could lose to either one.

Those would be the oddsmakers who predicted Virginia would beat us (correctly) and then predicted UNC would beat us (incorrectly), right, even though Duke was highly ranked and the opponents were not? I don't know why you would be certain the oddsmakers would pick Duke over MSU--they might or might not, but there is no reason to assume they will go chalk.

That being said, you are obviously right that it's important for the team to focus on one game at a time, and as fans we should not be overconfident--but since this is the thread for the whole Midwest bracket people may want to talk about hypothetical matchups at any point in the bracket, no?

[ns7]

All in all, it seems like Duke's most consistent strengths - 3PT shooting and 3PT defense - match up well with them, as do our biggest weaknesses - defensive rebounding and containing dribble penetration.

Agreed, Creighton is a good matchup for us. My one worry is that this game could become a "shootout" if Duke cannot stop the Creighton offense. Duke needs to recapture its early season form on defense since Creighton is elite on offense. I think that if the defense does return, this will be a comfortable win, if it does not, we're probably looking at a shootout (similar to that second Miami game).

Watch the defense closely during the Albany game. If we hold them to ~0.85 points per possession, I'll be very happy and optimistic.

[ns7]

Those would be the oddsmakers who predicted Virginia would beat us (correctly) and then predicted UNC would beat us (incorrectly), right, even though Duke was highly ranked and the opponents were not?

Both games were 1-2 point spreads, essentially a toss-up. So it's not surprising that we split those games. But you're right, we shouldn't make too much of a 1-2 point spread. My guess is we'd be between a 2-3 point favorite over MSU which means statistically we'd lose 4/10 games played.


I don't know why you would be certain the oddsmakers would pick Duke over MSU--they might or might not, but there is no reason to assume they will go chalk.

Well, the oddsmakers will pick us in a hypothetical matchup for one reason: we are ranked above MSU in their power rankings and they'd prefer not to lose a lot of money on the game by making us an underdog.

[CLW]

Kenpom gives Duke the following odds to advance:

Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in…
2MW Duke 93.5 63.9 40.8 18.4 9.7 4.4 23

[nmduke2001]

I wouldn't be shocked if Colorado State beat Louisville. I'd be happy, but not shocked. CSU rebounds like crazy. Their center, Iverson is a beast.

[Lauderdevil]

I'm really worried we're going to make the Final Four and then have to play a good team in the National Semifinal.


I'm getting even more scared about how good the team in the final might be.

Ugh, and they're both peaking at exactly the right time!

[75Crazie]

While some here may underestimate the challenge of early round opponents, I am comforted by the thought that Coach K never would. And i'm sure he has ample material gathered at this point to ensure his team is focused and motivated. I think many here and elsewhere underestimate the advantage we have of three senior leaders who surely are feeling stung by that unceremonious dismissal from the ACCT (not to mention 2012 NCAAT). Simply cannot imagine the team will not be well prepared and highly motivated.
You mean the same seniors who were so highly prepared and motivated to take revenge out on Maryland in our opening ACC tournament game? I would like to think that you are correct ... but at this point I want to see some proof of it.

[78Devil]

Does anyone have statistics of Duke Seeding in each of the last 15 NCAAs, versus Duke results in each of the last 15 NCAAs? I seem to recall a summary of that somewhere. I read today that we have been a 1 or 2 seed in 15 of the last 17 NCAAs, which is a ridiculously incredible statistic, but since I know we didn't make it to the Great Eight 15 of 17 times (!), that means that we underperformed to our seeding quite a bit. I'm trying to get a handle on those stats.

[Ichabod Drain]

Still can't believe Oregon got a 12 seed. They have got to be the scariest double digit seed in the tourney IMO. They were 2-0 vs UCLA this season with a better overall record and a higher rating on Kenpom (though only by 1). Yet UCLA get's a 6 seed. I would be very upset if I were Oregon but I would be even more upset if I were Oklahoma state. Here's hoping EJ and the Ducks show the committee how they can ball.

[Bluedog]

Does anyone have statistics of Duke Seeding in each of the last 15 NCAAs, versus Duke results in each of the last 15 NCAAs? I seem to recall a summary of that somewhere. I read today that we have been a 1 or 2 seed in 15 of the last 17 NCAAs, which is a ridiculously incredible statistic, but since I know we didn't make it to the Great Eight 15 of 17 times (!), that means that we underperformed to our seeding quite a bit. I'm trying to get a handle on those stats.

Seeds:


Year '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Seed 2 4 - - - 3 3 1 5 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 - 8 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 6 2 2 1 1 2


Results:


1983–84 Mike Krzyzewski 24–10 7–7 T-3rd NCAA Round of 32
1984–85 Mike Krzyzewski 23–8 8–6 T-4th NCAA Round of 32
1985–86 Mike Krzyzewski 37–3 12–2 1st NCAA Finalist
1986–87 Mike Krzyzewski 24–9 9–5 3rd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
1987–88 Mike Krzyzewski 28–7 9–5 3rd NCAA Final Four
1988–89 Mike Krzyzewski 28–8 9–5 T-2nd NCAA Final Four
1989–90 Mike Krzyzewski 29–9 9–5 T-2nd NCAA Finalist
1990–91 Mike Krzyzewski 32–7 11–3 1st National Champions
1991–92 Mike Krzyzewski 34–2 14–2 1st National Champions
1992–93 Mike Krzyzewski 24–8 10–6 T-3rd NCAA Round of 32
1993–94 Mike Krzyzewski 28–6 12–4 1st NCAA Finalist
1995–96 Mike Krzyzewski 18–13 8–8 T-4th NCAA Round of 64
1996–97 Mike Krzyzewski 24–9 12–4 1st NCAA Round of 32
1997–98 Mike Krzyzewski 32–4 15–1 1st NCAA Elite Eight
1998–99 Mike Krzyzewski 37–2 16–0 1st NCAA Finalist
1999–2000 Mike Krzyzewski 29–5 15–1 1st NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2000–01 Mike Krzyzewski 35–4 13–3 1st National Champions
2001–02 Mike Krzyzewski 31–4 13–3 2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2002–03 Mike Krzyzewski 26–7 11–5 T-2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2003–04 Mike Krzyzewski 31–6 13–3 1st NCAA Final Four
2004–05 Mike Krzyzewski 27–6 11–5 3rd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2005–06 Mike Krzyzewski 32–4 14–2 1st NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2006–07 Mike Krzyzewski 22–11 8–8 T-6th NCAA Round of 64
2007–08 Mike Krzyzewski 28–6 13–3 2nd NCAA Round of 32
2008–09 Mike Krzyzewski 30–7 11–5 T-2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2009–10 Mike Krzyzewski 35–5 13–3 T-1st National Champions
2010–11 Mike Krzyzewski 32–5 13–3 2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2011–12 Mike Krzyzewski 27–7 13–3 2nd NCAA Round of 64

It's very hard not to "underperform" your seed when you get a 1 or 2 basically every time. I suppose we could compare it to the average number of victories for a 1/2, which would be a more apt comparison. We've been a 1 or 2 in 14 of the last 16 tournaments and have made the Elite 8 or better in five of them.

[Ichabod Drain]

Still can't believe Oregon got a 12 seed. They have got to be the scariest double digit seed in the tourney IMO. They were 2-0 vs UCLA this season with a better overall record and a higher rating on Kenpom (though only by 1). Yet UCLA get's a 6 seed. I would be very upset if I were Oregon but I would be even more upset if I were Oklahoma state. Here's hoping EJ and the Ducks show the committee how they can ball.

Also UCLA lost one of their best players in Jordan Adams a few days ago...

[wgl1228]

I'm not sure what to think about Creighton. They have a early season win at Wisconsin and a win over Cal but other than that they haven't played a tough schedule. Limit McDermott somewhat and we should be fine.

[DukeAlumBS]

I feel pretty good about this bracket for us. If our team is there. We can get to the final 4. I have us beating Louisville in my bracket. We punched their ticket early in the season. I know they are better, so are we. MSU does not scare me as some. We seem to handle them nicely. We beat them and Michigan last year. Know some players moved on and some are there. Our team is about the same. So I feel really good about this bracket. Not gonna tell you who is in my final match! Go ACC!
Have nice day my friends,

Jimmy

[tele]

"The people who live in a Golden Age usually go around complaining how yellow everything looks" Jarrell

Other teams may have caught a better break, but IF Duke plays well they should do ok. Louisville may be the hottest one seed though, but doesn't mean they still won't get upset like they were earlier in the season.

I imagine selection sunday to be something like Christmas morining in an orphanage, hard not to feel you might be better off somewhere else.

[captmojo]

If Duke was just awarded the 2013 Helms Trophy, how many would complain about there not being a playoff? ;)

[rifraf]

I believe that this year's Duke team is capable of beating every team in the bracket. Duke at its best is probably better than all but 2 or 3 teams at THEIR best. The question is going to be: Which Duke team will show up? @UNC Duke or ACC Tourney Duke...

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

You mean the same seniors who were so highly prepared and motivated to take revenge out on Maryland in our opening ACC tournament game? I would like to think that you are correct ... but at this point I want to see some proof of it.
I'm saying at this point, given what has transpired, yes, these same seniors who were not ready to roll against Maryland will in fact be ready this week.

[mr. synellinden]

Does anyone have statistics of Duke Seeding in each of the last 15 NCAAs, versus Duke results in each of the last 15 NCAAs? I seem to recall a summary of that somewhere. I read today that we have been a 1 or 2 seed in 15 of the last 17 NCAAs, which is a ridiculously incredible statistic, but since I know we didn't make it to the Great Eight 15 of 17 times (!), that means that we underperformed to our seeding quite a bit. I'm trying to get a handle on those stats.

In this post (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?30309-Let-s-Face-It-We-are-the-Kings-of-November-and-December&p=620283#post620283), I compiled some of that information going back to 2002. It's not pretty.

[nchfries67]

The (blue) devil went down to Georgia.

[Listen to Quants]

Seeds:


Year '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Seed 2 4 - - - 3 3 1 5 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 - 8 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 6 2 2 1 1 2


Results:


1983–84 Mike Krzyzewski 24–10 7–7 T-3rd NCAA Round of 32
1984–85 Mike Krzyzewski 23–8 8–6 T-4th NCAA Round of 32
1985–86 Mike Krzyzewski 37–3 12–2 1st NCAA Finalist
1986–87 Mike Krzyzewski 24–9 9–5 3rd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
1987–88 Mike Krzyzewski 28–7 9–5 3rd NCAA Final Four
1988–89 Mike Krzyzewski 28–8 9–5 T-2nd NCAA Final Four
1989–90 Mike Krzyzewski 29–9 9–5 T-2nd NCAA Finalist
1990–91 Mike Krzyzewski 32–7 11–3 1st National Champions
1991–92 Mike Krzyzewski 34–2 14–2 1st National Champions
1992–93 Mike Krzyzewski 24–8 10–6 T-3rd NCAA Round of 32
1993–94 Mike Krzyzewski 28–6 12–4 1st NCAA Finalist
1995–96 Mike Krzyzewski 18–13 8–8 T-4th NCAA Round of 64
1996–97 Mike Krzyzewski 24–9 12–4 1st NCAA Round of 32
1997–98 Mike Krzyzewski 32–4 15–1 1st NCAA Elite Eight
1998–99 Mike Krzyzewski 37–2 16–0 1st NCAA Finalist
1999–2000 Mike Krzyzewski 29–5 15–1 1st NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2000–01 Mike Krzyzewski 35–4 13–3 1st National Champions
2001–02 Mike Krzyzewski 31–4 13–3 2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2002–03 Mike Krzyzewski 26–7 11–5 T-2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2003–04 Mike Krzyzewski 31–6 13–3 1st NCAA Final Four
2004–05 Mike Krzyzewski 27–6 11–5 3rd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2005–06 Mike Krzyzewski 32–4 14–2 1st NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2006–07 Mike Krzyzewski 22–11 8–8 T-6th NCAA Round of 64
2007–08 Mike Krzyzewski 28–6 13–3 2nd NCAA Round of 32
2008–09 Mike Krzyzewski 30–7 11–5 T-2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2009–10 Mike Krzyzewski 35–5 13–3 T-1st National Champions
2010–11 Mike Krzyzewski 32–5 13–3 2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2011–12 Mike Krzyzewski 27–7 13–3 2nd NCAA Round of 64

It's very hard not to "underperform" your seed when you get a 1 or 2 basically every time. I suppose we could compare it to the average number of victories for a 1/2, which would be a more apt comparison. We've been a 1 or 2 in 14 of the last 16 tournaments and have made the Elite 8 or better in five of them.

Yes, yes, yes. If would be great if someone had the average number of wins for each seed since the expansion to 64. THEN, and only then, we could count the expected versus observed wins for Duke. I'd take a wild guess that for Duke observed and expected are about the same.

[wilko]

I'm saying at this point, given what has transpired, yes, these same seniors who were not ready to roll against Maryland will in fact be ready this week.

For their own sakes I certainly hope so...
The Sr's are playing for jobs somewhere next yr...

I had thought I'd cruise to G'boro and pick up a ticket Sat or Sun.... Learned my lesson there. I aint looking past anyone or taking anything for granted.
Just win....

[sagegrouse]

Yes, yes, yes. If would be great if someone had the average number of wins for each seed since the expansion to 64. THEN, and only then, we could count the expected versus observed wins for Duke. I'd take a wild guess that for Duke observed and expected are about the same.

No time to find it now, but it's widely available -- maybe even in USA Today. -- sage

[ncexnyc]

For their own sakes I certainly hope so...
The Sr's are playing for jobs somewhere next yr...

I had thought I'd cruise to G'boro and pick up a ticket Sat or Sun.... Learned my lesson there. I aint looking past anyone or taking anything for granted.
Just win....

LOL. I printed out a nice color seating chart of Greensboro so I'd know what tickets to look for from the scalpers on Saturday I also made a bank run on Friday afternoon as I wanted to have enough cash on hand so the family and I would have a great weekend at Greensboro. Needless to say those plans were put to bed shortly after 9PM Friday night.

A funny thing about the upcoming tourney. All the so called experts don't have us making it very far, yet we've beaten a number of the so called favorites. Funny how one game changes everyone's expectations.

[wilko]

Needless to say those plans were put to bed shortly after 9PM Friday night.

I feel you there.
I had this restless "Now WTF am I supposed to do" felling all weekend..

[Mudge]

I seriously think the committee has ZERO procedure for how they seed teams. Just seems completely random. I laughed out loud when I heard one of the committee members being interviewed when he defended Gonzaga as a #1 by saying "teams being their A game every night against them." For one, their conference competition's "A" games are actually C games for everyone else in the country. And if opponent effort is a qualification, then how does Duke get a brutal region while Gonzaga gets probably the best draw of any 1 seed?

The guy who said that, Mike Bobinski (chairman of the selection committee), just left Xavier after years as the AD there-- his mid-major perception of the world is skewed by seeing the A-10 as on par with the ACC (every year, not just this year, after they added Butler and VCU), and since Xavier has won that league a lot recently, and has teams in that league getting up for them the way ACC teams get up for Duke and UNC, he thinks that Gonzaga is facing the best that every opponent has to offer, every night in the WCC-- and to boot, thinks that the WCC (like he thinks about the A-10) is on par with the ACC, if only people got to see them more, and thus knew more about them-- it's a provably wrong theory, but I think that was motivating his comment.

Gonzaga lost at home to a decent Illinois team-- not very impressive. They also lost at Butler, but that is a little more understandable... their games against Big 12 teams sound better than they really look, on closer scrutiny. Bobinski doesn't know what it means to have UVa and MD (who has as much or more talent than Gonzaga), egged on by 15,000- 20,000 raving lunatics (which I am willing to bet Gonzaga rarely played in front of), playing at a fever pitch to make their season, and hopefully get into the tournament with a win... something 90% of Gonzaga's league peers had absolutely no hope of doing.

While I don't think either UVa or MD deserved a tourney spot, based on their desultory play in numerous games against teams not named Duke or UNC (or not played at home), I still think you have just witnessed the (NCAA Selection Committee) world according to Mid-Major Mike-- however skewed that worldview is.

[Mudge]

I could not have said it any better. It is exactly my thoughts. McDermott is better than McCollum, Williams, Harris and Wells and has a better supporting cast than McCollum, Harris and Wells had.

I don' think Duke has a lot to worry about, if they meet Creighton... Cincy is very physical (but not very good), so they will beat the birdcrap out of the Bluejays, before losing, at which point I am pretty confident that Duke will be able to outscore a bruised and winded Creighton team, should that matchup come to pass. Worrying about Creighton just seems anal, to me.

[Mudge]

Those would be the oddsmakers who predicted Virginia would beat us (correctly) and then predicted UNC would beat us (incorrectly), right, even though Duke was highly ranked and the opponents were not? I don't know why you would be certain the oddsmakers would pick Duke over MSU--they might or might not, but there is no reason to assume they will go chalk.

That being said, you are obviously right that it's important for the team to focus on one game at a time, and as fans we should not be overconfident--but since this is the thread for the whole Midwest bracket people may want to talk about hypothetical matchups at any point in the bracket, no?

I don't know what the oddsmakers will say, but if Duke faces MSU, the most popular "dog" pick of every commentator, is going to be MSU to eliminate the higher-seeded Duke (a` la 2005) again-- they are going to be all over that like they were absolutely certain that first Baylor and then WV were going to beat Duke in 2010... hopefully, they are equally as wrong.

By the way, what is the name of the ethnic Asian (Indian?) host on ESPN that keeps getting in sideways digs at Duke? He blurts out that "nothing would make more people all around the country happier than to see Duke get sent home early again", as he is reviewing the Midwest bracket with the ESPN "experts"... what is his problem? I've seen him do this before... and as for experts, somehow, despite every objective analyst (Jerry Palm, Jay Bilas, Lunardi, the Univ. of Cincinnati quantative analysis professor who has picked 7 of the 9 previous tournament winners on Selection Sunday) saying that the Midwest is the toughest bracket and the West is the easiest, expert Frank Martin (former Huggins assistant at Cincy, former Kansas State coach) keeps going on that the "West is just brutal-- that is far and away the toughest bracket"... what planet (other than K-State) is he living on?

[UrinalCake]

I don' think Duke has a lot to worry about, if they meet Creighton... Cincy is very physical (but not very good), so they will beat the birdcrap out of the Bluejays, before losing, at which point I am pretty confident that Duke will be able to outscore a bruised and winded Creighton team, should that matchup come to pass. Worrying about Creighton just seems anal, to me.

I know nothing about Creighton, but will repeat what I heard on the radio today... Creighton is also a very physical team, they were the team that knocked out Kendall Marshall last year on what was arguably a dirty play. Their strategy was to beat the mess out of UNC since they were at a talent disadvantage, and they'd likely do the same to us. So no matter who wins, if we get by Albany then we'll be in for a dogfight. I do think we've held our own against physical teams this year though.

As Coach K likes to say, it's more about matchups than about how good your opponent is overall. Maryland wasn't very good this year but they were just a bad matchup for us. If we saw them in our bracket (hypothetically) I'd be worried. For now though let's just take it one game at a time.

[millerecu]

I am obviously worried after last years early exit and the most recent loss vs. Maryland. But...and its a big but....last year Duke did not have Ryan Kelly at all and during the Maryland game two SENIORS did not play well while the freshman stud played out of his funk. Something tells me its much easier to get two very talented SENIORS to get closer to their A game than freshmen after a stinker the week before.

I hope I am not eating crow but I honestly do not understand why everyone is worried about Creighton. Go look at their schedule. If Duke had that schedule and got past Wisconsin in November I would put up a TON of money they would be undefeated at the end of the season.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Well, I just scoped through ESPN.com, SI.com, Sportingnews.com, and Cbssports.com to look for the "Expert" bracket predictions for each site.

Unless I missed something, I found not 1 of the so-called experts predicted Duke to make the Final 4. NOT 1!

The only Talking-Head I know of that has gone on record as picking Duke to the Final 4 is Dan Dakich this morning on ESPN's Mike and Mike. That's it so far. It just seems soooo odd to me that a team can go from "Most Complete Team in the Country" to middle-of-the-pack underachiever with just 1 loss?

Now, to be perfectly honest, Last night when the brackets came out, I picked Louisville, too, to advance to Atlanta(I even picked them in our poll).:confused:

But the more I think about it, the more I'm falling back-in-love with our Blue Devils. I mean, they are certainly off-the-radar and an "underdog" if they were to make it to Indy(about half the experts pick MSU over us).

Duke, historically, is much more dangerous when overlooked.

Coach K, psychologically, is at his best when he can make the team feel like they are backed into a corner and no one believes in them, having to believe in each other because no one else does.

[weezie]

If you care, Feinstein (www.washingtonpost.com/louisville-duke-a-dream-regional-final-that-may-only-be-a-dream/2013/03/17/fc2c3c72-8e65-11e2-9f54-f3fdd70acad2_story.html) picks us to lose to MSU

In today's WaPo there are far too many byline pictures of Feinstein (and yes, I know one is too many) in the NCAA bracket section.
Far, far too many. :eek:

[sporthenry]

Well, I just scoped through ESPN.com, SI.com, Sportingnews.com, and Cbssports.com to look for the "Expert" bracket predictions for each site.

Unless I missed something, I found not 1 of the so-called experts predicted Duke to make the Final 4. NOT 1!

The only Talking-Head I know of that has gone on record as picking Duke to the Final 4 is Dan Dakich this morning on ESPN's Mike and Mike. That's it so far. It just seems soooo odd to me that a team can go from "Most Complete Team in the Country" to middle-of-the-pack underachiever with just 1 loss?

Now, to be perfectly honest, Last night when the brackets came out, I picked Louisville, too, to advance to Atlanta(I even picked them in our poll).:confused:

But the more I think about it, the more I'm falling back-in-love with our Blue Devils. I mean, they are certainly off-the-radar and an "underdog" if they were to make it to Indy(about half the experts pick MSU over us).

Duke, historically, is much more dangerous when overlooked.

Coach K, psychologically, is at his best when he can make the team feel like they are backed into a corner and no one believes in them, having to believe in each other because no one else does.

I agree. Reminds me so much of 2010 with everyone projecting Duke to be the first 1 seed to fall. I honestly don't get it. 2 weeks ago, Georgetown was the flavor of the weak in the BE and Duke couldn't lose without Kelly. Amazing how 2 games changes all that. If Syracuse holds on, does Louisville still get all this love?

But again, this is why I don't really care for experts much anymore. Like nobody mentions that Louisville thrives on turnovers and Duke doesn't turn the ball over. As I mentioned elsewhere, they can provide some insight with a team like Montana who I saw very little of but on the whole, I'll use my eye test with other advanced metrics. And even with Kenpom giving Louisville an edge, it'll be 1.5 point edge and roughly 55% chance of beating Duke.

[weezie]

The only Talking-Head I know of that has gone on record as picking Duke to the Final 4 is Dan Dakich this morning on ESPN's Mike and Mike. That's it so far.

Safe to assume Dakich was subsequently bundled off into a gunny sack and dangled from a jungle tree over a big pit filled with snakes.
The guys who consider themselves sports journalists are hugging themselves with joy that they don't have to focus on Duke as a contender......yet.

[El_Diablo]

I know nothing about Creighton, but will repeat what I heard on the radio today... Creighton is also a very physical team, they were the team that knocked out Kendall Marshall last year on what was arguably a dirty play. Their strategy was to beat the mess out of UNC since they were at a talent disadvantage, and they'd likely do the same to us. So no matter who wins, if we get by Albany then we'll be in for a dogfight. I do think we've held our own against physical teams this year though.

As Coach K likes to say, it's more about matchups than about how good your opponent is overall. Maryland wasn't very good this year but they were just a bad matchup for us. If we saw them in our bracket (hypothetically) I'd be worried. For now though let's just take it one game at a time.

Please explain to me how this is a dirty play:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0FGb4ErJ6k

EDIT: On second thought, nevermind, I heard it all last year on IC already. ;)

[crimsonandblue]

Please explain to me how this is a dirty play:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0FGb4ErJ6k

The shove in the chest of a guy in the air when not really playing the ball?

I mean, that's what Heels will point to, although it certainly wasn't anything outlandish. There was some stuff going on in that game that raised some eyebrows.

Honestly, the Missouri Valley in general is a pretty rough league from a physical standpoint.

[coldriver10]

Well, I just scoped through ESPN.com, SI.com, Sportingnews.com, and Cbssports.com to look for the "Expert" bracket predictions for each site.

Unless I missed something, I found not 1 of the so-called experts predicted Duke to make the Final 4. NOT 1!
I watched Around the Horn today (don't ask me why) and 2 of the 4 panelists chose Duke to win the midwest regional while the other 2 chose MSU. Not that it matters, I just found it interesting considering how much love UL is (rightfully) getting.

[sporthenry]

Please explain to me how this is a dirty play:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0FGb4ErJ6k

EDIT: On second thought, nevermind, I heard it all last year on IC already. ;)

How about this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TZ516JT0Jw

Or this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy4Pv8Zu4H8

There was a few swipes at Henson's injured wrist as well. To be honest, Creighton was over the line and while the Marshall one might not have been terrible by itself, with everything else considered, it becomes a pattern.

[El_Diablo]

The shove in the chest of a guy in the air when not really playing the ball?

I mean, that's what Heels will point to, although it certainly wasn't anything outlandish. There was some stuff going on in that game that raised some eyebrows.

Honestly, the Missouri Valley in general is a pretty rough league from a physical standpoint.

I can see how there are gripes about some of the other stuff in that game, but Marshall was pushing off (with his left forearm swiping the defender's face) just as much, if not more, than he was himself getting "shoved." And the defender certainly appeared to be playing the ball (see below: eyes on the ball, arm extended towards ball). I am not sure how people can make such a dubious claim about a player's intent based on a play like that.

3278


How about this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TZ516JT0Jw

Or this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy4Pv8Zu4H8

there was another swipe at Henson's injured wrist as well. To be honest, Creighton was over the line and while the Marshall one might not have been terrible by itself, with everything else considered, it becomes a pattern.

Yeah, we are talking about a different play here. See above. I don't have a problem saying that Creighton got physical with UNC (or even played dirty at times). But to say that particular foul on Marshall was "dirty" simply because he ended up landing awkwardly and suffering a freak injury is kind of revisionist IMO.

[gocanes0506]

Duke can easliy win this regional if not the whole thing if:

We keep Plumlee in the game
Sul stays agressive and hits open shots
Cook drives to the basket
Rebound well

The biggest issue is Duke tends to rely on the 3 when they are down to climb back in the game. Rarely have I seen a Duke team just try to slowly cut into a lead by pounding it inside to Mason or driving the ball. The team seems to set a bunch of screens and try to get the three ball open. Also, if Sul can hit shots it takes pressure of the three seniors. If Cook drives to the basket it opens up dunks or easy layups for Mason, Kelly, Amile, and Hairston. Driving to the basket really gets Cook warmed up and hitting threes when necessary. The team is near unstoppable when all 5 starters are scoring regularly. The team just seems to rely on Curry to hit all shots when guys fall out of rhythm instead of finding ways to get them into the game.

Rebounding is always important. Duke can give up too many second chance points, which leads to a deficit, which eventually leads to relying on the three.

Of course I would love to see Amile, Murphy and Thornton get a lot of playing time the 1st game of the weekends. That way Ryan and Seth are rested for the hardest game of the weekend. I really hope K doesn't play Ryan and Seth more than 25 minutes versus Albany. I cant question a hall of fame coach though if he does.

[El_Diablo]

Duke can easliy win this regional if not the whole thing if:

We keep Plumlee in the game
Sul stays agressive and hits open shots
Cook drives to the basket
Rebound well

The biggest issue is Duke tends to rely on the 3 when they are down to climb back in the game. Rarely have I seen a Duke team just try to slowly cut into a lead by pounding it inside to Mason or driving the ball. The team seems to set a bunch of screens and try to get the three ball open. Also, if Sul can hit shots it takes pressure of the three seniors. If Cook drives to the basket it opens up dunks or easy layups for Mason, Kelly, Amile, and Hairston. Driving to the basket really gets Cook warmed up and hitting threes when necessary. The team is near unstoppable when all 5 starters are scoring regularly. The team just seems to rely on Curry to hit all shots when guys fall out of rhythm instead of finding ways to get them into the game.

Rebounding is always important. Duke can give up too many second chance points, which leads to a deficit, which eventually leads to relying on the three.

Of course I would love to see Amile, Murphy and Thornton get a lot of playing time the 1st game of the weekends. That way Ryan and Seth are rested for the hardest game of the weekend. I really hope K doesn't play Ryan and Seth more than 25 minutes versus Albany. I cant question a hall of fame coach though if he does.

I think that was the (only?) bright spot in the Maryland game. In attacking the basket, Rasheed was playing with a sense of focused urgency that others seemed to lack. I think losing his starting spot may have motivated him--hopefully he keeps that edge, even after/if he earns back that starting spot.

[FerryFor50]

I think that was the (only?) bright spot in the Maryland game. In attacking the basket, Rasheed was playing with a sense of focused urgency that others seemed to lack. I think losing his starting spot may have motivated him--hopefully he keeps that edge, even after/if he earns back that starting spot.

I dunno. I thought Plumlee's bounce back against Len was a bright spot, too. Outside of that... Blech.

[ns7]

Duke can easliy win this regional if not the whole thing if:

We keep Plumlee in the game
Sul stays agressive and hits open shots
Cook drives to the basket
Rebound well

The biggest issue is Duke tends to rely on the 3 when they are down to climb back in the game. Rarely have I seen a Duke team just try to slowly cut into a lead by pounding it inside to Mason or driving the ball. The team seems to set a bunch of screens and try to get the three ball open. Also, if Sul can hit shots it takes pressure of the three seniors. If Cook drives to the basket it opens up dunks or easy layups for Mason, Kelly, Amile, and Hairston. Driving to the basket really gets Cook warmed up and hitting threes when necessary. The team is near unstoppable when all 5 starters are scoring regularly. The team just seems to rely on Curry to hit all shots when guys fall out of rhythm instead of finding ways to get them into the game.

This is not true unless you're talking about being down ~10 to Maryland with 3 minutes left. In that case your best bet is to take three point shots. It's simple math--you've probably got 5 possessions max without fouling and you need to get 10 points. So you could make a 2 all five times and hope your opponent doesn't score, or you hit some 3's and give yourself some leeway.

I think what does happen sometimes is the offense gets stagnant, there isn't much ball movement, and someone settles for a contested 3. The 3 here makes sense, if you're going to take a low percentage shot, it might as well be worth 3 points. But in that case I'd say it's more about bad offense then being overly reliant on the 3 point shot.


Rebounding is always important. Duke can give up too many second chance points, which leads to a deficit, which eventually leads to relying on the three.

Agreed. The team just needs to be okay here, not world-beaters.

[jv001]

I watched Around the Horn today (don't ask me why) and 2 of the 4 panelists chose Duke to win the midwest regional while the other 2 chose MSU. Not that it matters, I just found it interesting considering how much love UL is (rightfully) getting.

Steve Lappas on CBS network picked Duke to win it all. Our own Alaa did not pick us. I think he picked Lville. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

I watched Around the Horn today (don't ask me why) and 2 of the 4 panelists chose Duke to win the midwest regional while the other 2 chose MSU. Not that it matters, I just found it interesting considering how much love UL is (rightfully) getting.

Will Leitch of "Sports on Earth" (who?) in the first link on the Tuesday's Tournament Linkages article also picked Duke. Julio wondered about some of the color mappings of fan "likes" by county. Specifically, why Oklahoma was more orange (OSU) than red (OU). Easy. I spend a lot of time in rural Oklahoma (don't ask), and the country folk like the Cowboys. The far more numerous city folk in Oklahoma City and Tulsa tend to like the Sooners. The map gives preferences to "areas" not "populations." Same thing in political red and blue maps: the vast regions in the Dakotas and the rest of the Great Plains plus the Rocky Mountains make the US look like a red country.

I am proud to say that my rural area, Routt County, Colorado, "liked" the Blue Devils over MSU, Creighton, and Louisville, while it also "liked" Kansas rather than UNC. Of course, there is confusion here: UNC is the University of Northern Colorado (the erstwhile Greeley State).

sagegrouse

[Saratoga2]

I am obviously worried after last years early exit and the most recent loss vs. Maryland. But...and its a big but....last year Duke did not have Ryan Kelly at all and during the Maryland game two SENIORS did not play well while the freshman stud played out of his funk. Something tells me its much easier to get two very talented SENIORS to get closer to their A game than freshmen after a stinker the week before.

I hope I am not eating crow but I honestly do not understand why everyone is worried about Creighton. Go look at their schedule. If Duke had that schedule and got past Wisconsin in November I would put up a TON of money they would be undefeated at the end of the season.

Like Featherston, I really don't know what to think following the second Maryland game. Clearly the Duke defense was not picking up and there seemed to be a lack of energy. Ryan looked too slow to contest shots while Mason wouldn't even put his hand up and typically gave shooters wide open looks. The guards weren't any better at keeping their men in front of them. What happened? Beats me, although Mason's defense has been weak ever since coach K asked him to avoid fouls and stay in the game. Even with the weak defense, we might have won that game if our shooting was anywhere near the norm from the 3 point line. Sadly it was not. So I think the pundits rightly question Duke. Which team will show up?

At least Mason had a good offensive game against Maryland, along with Rasheed re-emerging and Seth playing well in the second half. Not all was bad.

We should beat Albany but Creighton has a 6'8" player in McDermott who could give us fits. Who do we have to guard him? Amile, but he doesn't get a look.

[Billy Dat]

We should beat Albany but Creighton has a 6'8" player in McDermott who could give us fits. Who do we have to guard him? Amile, but he doesn't get a look.

If it happens, that's Ryan's assignment. Aside from getting torched by Dez Wells, he's done a nice job guarding 4s.

[ChrisP]

No disrespect to Albany, but I think we should win that game fairly handily. As other posters have mentioned though, I'm worried about which Duke team will show up. I simply cannot believe that our guys played the way that they did again UMD in the first round of the ACC tourney after MD beat us up at their place a couple weeks before. Maybe the team fell into the trap of believing the "haven't lost with Ryan in the lineup" hype and didn't take the game seriously enough. Who knows? But anyway, if that Duke team shows up, we probably should still beat Albany, but after that, we're screwed.

As much as it pained me to do it, I voted for Louisville as the winner of this region in the poll at the top of the page. I think Duke will handle Albany, then beat Creighton (not gonna try to predict by how much because really, it doesn't matter - survive and advance) and then we'd have several days to prepare for the next game - likely MSU. I think we could certainly lose to the Spartans, but should be ok, given the prep time. Of course, I saw how well that worked out firsthand in Austin in 2005 when they beat us in the round of 16.

And then, we'd likely be matched up with Louisville for a shot at the FF. I feel we certainly can beat them, but I just don't think we will. I love this Duke team and I know we're formidable with RK back in the lineup, but, aside from the game at UNC, I just haven't seen that mean/nasty side that I think you need to put teams away. Mason's been solid and Curry has been a warrior playing on a bum leg all year, but we all know that big, physical guards bother our guards and our defense just isn't championship-caliber. I'd LOVE, LOVE, LOVE for Duke to be the first team ever to win a championship after losing the first round of their conference tourney, but I don't think it's in the cards (no pun intended). I have a feeling it's the Hoosiers' year, unfortunately.

But hey, we'll find out soon enough!

[Billy Dat]

And then, we'd likely be matched up with Louisville for a shot at the FF. I feel we certainly can beat them, but I just don't think we will. I love this Duke team and I know we're formidable with RK back in the lineup, but, aside from the game at UNC, I just haven't seen that mean/nasty side that I think you need to put teams away. Mason's been solid and Curry has been a warrior playing on a bum leg all year, but we all know that big, physical guards bother our guards and our defense just isn't championship-caliber.

I'll counter with the following...
-If we managed to get to the Elite Eight, we'd be playing really well and with a lot of confidence
-If the opponent was Louisville, their guards aren't big and physical, they are small and lightening quick
-If the opponent was Louisville, we have beaten them - they were missing a very important player (Deng), but we are familiar with their style
-If the opponent was Louisville, their guards are either their greatest strength, or the source of dozens of horrendous shots and bad decisions, especially Russdiculous.

If we can get to a Regional Final, I like our chances against anyone. All my anxiety as a Duke fan over the last decade has been tied up in the first 3 rounds!!!!!

[gus]

The biggest issue is Duke tends to rely on the 3 when they are down to climb back in the game. Rarely have I seen a Duke team just try to slowly cut into a lead by pounding it inside to Mason or driving the ball.

The three is an integral part of the Duke offense. If Duke is getting open threes they will continue to shoot them, regardless of the score and regardless of the whether prior shots have fallen or not. Coach K's philosophy has always been that a a good shot is a good shot regardless of the outcome. Shifting away from this strategy simply because the team is down is unlikely to happen. You'll see a shift from the strategy if it's ineffective (e.g, duke isn't getting open shots) but not because Duke might happen to be missing.

[throatybeard]

I can't read the word "Albany" without hearing Patrice Chereau say it in Last of the Mohicans as General Montcalm.

Anyone else?

Yeah, I didn't think so.

[crimsonandblue]

I can't read the word "Albany" without hearing Patrice Chereau say it in Last of the Mohicans as General Montcalm.

Anyone else?

Yeah, I didn't think so.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lz74bjfw3G1qbsxymo1_r6_500.gif

You give us Last of the Mohicans. I give you, How I Met Your Mother. Seems apropos.

[MCFinARL]

I can't read the word "Albany" without hearing Patrice Chereau say it in Last of the Mohicans as General Montcalm.

Anyone else?

Yeah, I didn't think so.

Oh, thanks. Now I'm replaying large chunks of Last of the Mohicans in my head--and I have work to do today (though, obviously, I was not doing it).

[CDu]

If it happens, that's Ryan's assignment. Aside from getting torched by Dez Wells, he's done a nice job guarding 4s.

And note that Dez Wells is not actually a 4. He plays the 3, and he's more of a guard-oriented 3 than a PF-type 3. He did split some 27 minutes with Layman at the 4 (both are really 3s), but a lot of Wells' time in that game was at the 3.

McDermott is a much better player than Wells, but he's a much better matchup for Kelly.

[Greg_Newton]

Yeah, Wells is 6'3-6'4 perimeter player who is a freak athlete - not surprisingly Kelly had trouble with him. McDermott is a good 4" taller and not exactly that.

[Listen to Quants]

Seeds:


Year '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Seed 2 4 - - - 3 3 1 5 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 - 8 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 6 2 2 1 1 2


Results:


1983–84 Mike Krzyzewski 24–10 7–7 T-3rd NCAA Round of 32
1984–85 Mike Krzyzewski 23–8 8–6 T-4th NCAA Round of 32
1985–86 Mike Krzyzewski 37–3 12–2 1st NCAA Finalist
1986–87 Mike Krzyzewski 24–9 9–5 3rd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
1987–88 Mike Krzyzewski 28–7 9–5 3rd NCAA Final Four
1988–89 Mike Krzyzewski 28–8 9–5 T-2nd NCAA Final Four
1989–90 Mike Krzyzewski 29–9 9–5 T-2nd NCAA Finalist
1990–91 Mike Krzyzewski 32–7 11–3 1st National Champions
1991–92 Mike Krzyzewski 34–2 14–2 1st National Champions
1992–93 Mike Krzyzewski 24–8 10–6 T-3rd NCAA Round of 32
1993–94 Mike Krzyzewski 28–6 12–4 1st NCAA Finalist
1995–96 Mike Krzyzewski 18–13 8–8 T-4th NCAA Round of 64
1996–97 Mike Krzyzewski 24–9 12–4 1st NCAA Round of 32
1997–98 Mike Krzyzewski 32–4 15–1 1st NCAA Elite Eight
1998–99 Mike Krzyzewski 37–2 16–0 1st NCAA Finalist
1999–2000 Mike Krzyzewski 29–5 15–1 1st NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2000–01 Mike Krzyzewski 35–4 13–3 1st National Champions
2001–02 Mike Krzyzewski 31–4 13–3 2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2002–03 Mike Krzyzewski 26–7 11–5 T-2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2003–04 Mike Krzyzewski 31–6 13–3 1st NCAA Final Four
2004–05 Mike Krzyzewski 27–6 11–5 3rd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2005–06 Mike Krzyzewski 32–4 14–2 1st NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2006–07 Mike Krzyzewski 22–11 8–8 T-6th NCAA Round of 64
2007–08 Mike Krzyzewski 28–6 13–3 2nd NCAA Round of 32
2008–09 Mike Krzyzewski 30–7 11–5 T-2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2009–10 Mike Krzyzewski 35–5 13–3 T-1st National Champions
2010–11 Mike Krzyzewski 32–5 13–3 2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2011–12 Mike Krzyzewski 27–7 13–3 2nd NCAA Round of 64

It's very hard not to "underperform" your seed when you get a 1 or 2 basically every time. I suppose we could compare it to the average number of victories for a 1/2, which would be a more apt comparison. We've been a 1 or 2 in 14 of the last 16 tournaments and have made the Elite 8 or better in five of them.




Right you are. As you say, 1 seeds "underperform" rather easily. I'm a real wanker for saying this.On the data I got, they averaged 3.2 wins each time,

The following has the outcome sorted by seed for 1985-2005 inclusiveI'm a real wanker for saying this.
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney06/insider/news/story?id=2353126

I used that to quickly (NOT double checked, the only check on accuracy I offer is that the outcome looks about right)
In those 21 tourneys:
1 seeds had 269 wins. So 84 "trials" I'm a real wanker for saying this.(21 years times 4 such teams/year) for I'm a real wanker for saying this.3.20 wins/trial
2 seeds 206 wins. I'm a real wanker for saying this. 2.54 wins/trial
3 seeds 148 wins. I'm a real wanker for saying this.1.76 wins/trial
4 seeds 128 wins. I'm a real wanker for saying this.1.58 wins/trial
5 seeds 98 wins. I'm a real wanker for saying this. 1.17 wins/trial
6 seeds 108 wins. I'm a real wanker for saying this.1.29 wins/trial
8 seeds 57 wins. I'm a real wanker for saying this. 0.68 wins/trial

In the 1985-2005 inclusive period, given the seeds taken from Bluedogs post, with the above wins/trial values, Duke would be expected to have 50.5 wins.
Duke actually had 66 NCAA tourney wins in that period.

If instead one takes the entire entire 1985-2012 period but uses the 21 year data I had to provide expected wins (it would be pretty amazing if the last 7 years changed those values greatly):

DUKE, 1985-2012:
Grand total 69 expected wins
Grant total 79 observed wins

No evidence of either under or overperforming.

[Phoenix22]

Go Valpo!!!

[Gmadaduke]

Looks like Valpo is a no-show to this game. On the bright side, Sparty hardly looks invincible.

[Ichabod Drain]

Looks like Valpo is a no-show to this game. On the bright side, Sparty hardly looks invincible.

Can't watch the game at work but from the gamecast it seems theyre just dumping it down low to Nix mostly. Does Valpo not have any size to guard him?

[Gmadaduke]

Definitely outsized, but also, Valpo can't hit a shot. You're not missing much.

(The Butler-Bucknell game is also a display of terrible shooting).

[superdave]

Sparty is speeding up Valpo, and forcing them into difficult shots and turnovers. On the other hand, sparty does not look so great on offense. Kind of plodding.

[Gmadaduke]

Robert Morris would have Valpo down 15 at this point.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Robert Morris would have Valpo down 15 at this point.

MSU is overwhelming Valpo in the paint as the quality of Bigs for Valpo is pathetic to say the least.

However, the guards for MSU don't impress me. Poor decision making and sloppy ball handling.

If we meet next week, I think we match up well.