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View Full Version : So as a #2 Seed....Whom Do You NOT Want in Our Bracket



Udaman
03-17-2013, 08:56 AM
Seems 100% now that we are going to be a #2 seed (given Louisville and Kansas).

I would guess that the seeds will be

1's: Louisville (top overall seed), Indiana, Gonzaga, Kansas/Miami

2's and 3's: Kansas/Miami, Duke, Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, Michigan, Michigan State, New Mexico

4's and 5's: UNC, Marquette, Memphis, Syracuse, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Arizona

There could be some movement there for sure (Michigan could be a 4, for instance...Creighton or VCU could be a 5), but now we see the true fallout from our first round ACC tourney loss - no #1 means that get placed in with a top 4 team, and we have a tougher potential Sweet 16 matchup by far (tell me who you would rather play - Florida, or Arizona? Yeah, me too).

Lunardi currently has us in with Indiana. That would be a major bummer. Personally, I would take either Gonzaga or Kansas over them (big time).....but we won't be the top #2 seed...that will likely be Miami, who will be in with Kansas, in what could be the easiest overall bracket. They won't ship us out West, so that means either Louisville or Indiana. Louisville is going to be the # overall seed, which means we only play them if we are #8, and that won't happen. So it's either Indiana, or Gonzaga (likely Indiana).

Still, if we play them that means we make the Elite 8 and I'll take that. So who do you not want before then?

I've said a dozen time - I want no part of Michigan. They are a terrible matchup for us. If we played them, I think they win and win by a lot. Hopefully they'll be a 4 seed and it won't matter.

But another problem is the 7 seeds. They'll be better than the 8/9's pretty much across the board. Lundardi has 8/9 seeds like Oregon, Iowa State, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado State, etc....fine teams, but not fear inducing. His 7's are teams like Butler, Memphis and Creighton. Of course he's not the committee.....but those teams are truly, truly good as are the 6's, VCU, Notre Dame, UNLV. Of those teams, one of them will likely be our 7. Knowing the committee it will either be Butler, VCU or Creighton. Either of those teams would be an incredibly difficult out for the 2nd round game. I wouldn't want any of them. Please, please, please give us a team like Pittsburgh or Oregon (won't happen, though)

Again, this is where the loss to Maryland hurts the most....it makes our path to the Sweet 16 that much more difficult. I think this tournament could be the most wide open in years. No 2, 3 or 4 seed is going to be safe. Who do you not want to play?

Troublemaker
03-17-2013, 09:29 AM
Lunardi currently has us in with Indiana. That would be a major bummer. Personally, I would take either Gonzaga or Kansas over them (big time).....but we won't be the top #2 seed...that will likely be Miami, who will be in with Kansas, in what could be the easiest overall bracket. They won't ship us out West, so that means either Louisville or Indiana. Louisville is going to be the # overall seed, which means we only play them if we are #8, and that won't happen. So it's either Indiana, or Gonzaga (likely Indiana).


If Miami is the top #2 seed, they will be in the East. Because DC is actually closer to them than Indianapolis or Arlington (which is actually farthest away of those three choices)

NashvilleDevil
03-17-2013, 10:14 AM
Why does Duke have to be the ones that want to avoid teams? You don't think teams want to avoid playing Duke given their record when fully Death Star operational?

freshmanjs
03-17-2013, 10:27 AM
i don't agree with the premise that we are a #2 seed. we have a very strong case to get a #1 above kansas. i think there is a good chance that will happen.

mcdukie
03-17-2013, 10:37 AM
I will be the first to say that because we lost to MD we get what get, however Kansas had some HORRIBLE losses this year. I'm not saying we should be a 1 seed but I am saying that Kansas shouldn't be.

Norman Pfyster
03-17-2013, 10:41 AM
I mentioned this in another thread, but nowhere in your analysis does SLU appear. They are ranked #16 in the country and have beaten Butler all three times they played this season. They also beat VCU, although both games were close and I expect the A10 championship game to be close, too.

gocanes0506
03-17-2013, 11:01 AM
I believe Indiana would be a great number 1 match for us. Gonzaga would be great as well as they are vastly overrated. I hope to avoid Georgetown, Louisville, and Kansas. I know they have beaten Louisville already but their d is nasty and silva and smith would torch the D with penetration. Kansas would beat duke in the middle and overshadow curry with a big defender. Georgetown is another physical team that duke would struggle with.

I don't see the committee puttin UNC in our bracket. KSU is good but can be stopped if you shutdown Rodriquez and keep them from hitting threes. Ok state lives and dies with smart. I don't believe we have anyone to match up with him though. Avoid Wisconsin.

flyingdutchdevil
03-17-2013, 11:04 AM
I will be the first to say that because we lost to MD we get what get, however Kansas had some HORRIBLE losses this year. I'm not saying we should be a 1 seed but I am saying that Kansas shouldn't be.

It's a fairly simple mathematical equation: Kansas won their tournament, have a 29-5 schedule, are in the top 5 in RPI, and have won 9 of their last 10. The committee has historically weighed the latter part of the season more than for seeding (for getting into the tournament, it's a different story).

Kansas is clearly a 1 seed. They may be the weakest 1 seed (and potentially weakest 1 or 2 seed, overall), but they are deserving of a 1 seed nonetheless.

Troublemaker
03-17-2013, 11:08 AM
Why does Duke have to be the ones that want to avoid teams? You don't think teams want to avoid playing Duke given their record when fully Death Star operational?

While I agree with you that other teams should be wary of receiving Duke in their bracket as well, I think the conversation of bad matchups / teams to avoid from Duke's perspective is interesting and a normal part of March Madness chatter. I don't mind it at all.

Here's one team I'm watching for: Michigan. They've struggled down the stretch, but I think if they got a chance to play Duke, their plethora of playmaking, penetrating guards would give us fits.

captmojo
03-17-2013, 11:11 AM
With less than 12 hours until the selection announcements, could this question be considered over-speculation?

Reisen
03-17-2013, 11:44 AM
It's a fairly simple mathematical equation: Kansas won their tournament, have a 29-5 schedule, are in the top 5 in RPI, and have won 9 of their last 10. The committee has historically weighed the latter part of the season more than for seeding (for getting into the tournament, it's a different story).

Kansas is clearly a 1 seed. They may be the weakest 1 seed (and potentially weakest 1 or 2 seed, overall), but they are deserving of a 1 seed nonetheless.

Well, except for the fact that Kansas is 5th in RPI, Duke is first, Kansas played a weak SOS, Duke played the #1, and Kansas had a horrible loss to a non-tournament team a week ago, plus worse losses than Duke (ie. bad losses to bad teams) during their season. There's also the whole "Ryan Kelly was hurt, but is playing now" argument.

The only place I see your argument working is that Kansas won their tournament, and Duke is 5-3 in their last 8 games. But no, Kansas is by no means clearly a #1.

In fact BracketMatrix (composite ranking) has us as the fourth #1 seed, and Kansas a 2. That's updated as of last night:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Udaman
03-17-2013, 12:04 PM
That's a cool site. I hope it's accurate. The #1 seeds have it much easier than the #2 seeds. Our RPI helps....but I still think we will get a #2 seed. By these measures, however, we should definitely be the top #2 seed, which is why putting us against Indiana or Louisville would be inherently unfair. I would love to see Kansas. Yeah, they are a tough matchup, but they are also the kind of team that won't even make it that far.

gofurman
03-17-2013, 12:11 PM
Regardless of teams fearing duke there are still teams we match up worse with and would prefer to avoid. That's a fact. Witness our losses - Maryland and Miami. What is the similarity in those teams? Big athletic guards. 6'5 types like Durand Scott and dez wells etc. Scott bothers curry immensely and wells is a matchup problem that resulted in Kelly having to leave the game - ie wells is one of the few guys who lets an opponent dictate to duke what we do. K Is big on which team dictates what the other does and he fully admitted Maryland forced Kelly out of the lineup w their 4 guard lineup. $Summary, avoid nasty fast athletic 6'5 types as much as possible. They can shoot over cook and blow by curry etc. and then shut us down on the other end. Our hope is suliamon , etc become this type of guy nxt year and hood can contain them but for now that's the guy we need to avoid

Agree. Disagree ?

Ben1029
03-17-2013, 12:18 PM
I would not want to play Ohio State even though they can be scoring challenged. I think that Duke would have a hard time guarding Thomas.

devildeac
03-17-2013, 12:36 PM
I would not want to play Ohio State even though they can be scoring challenged. I think that Duke would have a hard time guarding Thomas.

I kinda like the job Ryan did on him earlier this season:

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=20121128

NovaScotian
03-17-2013, 12:40 PM
I think I speak for a lot of us when I say that the only thing duke has to fear is duke itself.

ice-9
03-17-2013, 12:42 PM
Give me Kansas any day. I'd much rather have them than even Gonzaga -- think we match up pretty decently with them.

I also don't want rematches: Louisville, Ohio State, Miami.

Big, explosive guards scare me: Indiana, Michigan.

Top teams I wouldn't mind seeing in our bracket
- Georgetown: think Kelly can do a decent job containing Porter
- Michigan State: good chance Appling is more Hyde than Jekyl
- Syracuse: our shooters are dangerous against the zone

Ben1029
03-17-2013, 12:43 PM
I kinda like the job Ryan did on him earlier this season:

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=20121128

They are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, in the last month they have beaten Indiana and MSU twice.

Furniture
03-17-2013, 12:48 PM
I think I speak for a lot of us when I say that the only thing duke has to fear is duke itself.

Very true indeed!

RoyalBlue08
03-17-2013, 12:51 PM
Regardless of seeding, teams I would like to avoid: LOUISVILLE, Georgetown, Michigan, Michigan State

Teams I would like to see in our bracket: Zags, Kansas, Ohio State

I'd put Indiana somewhere in the middle, and I can't see us having to worry about Miami assuming they will try and keep conference foes separate.

sagegrouse
03-17-2013, 12:53 PM
Why does Duke have to be the ones that want to avoid teams? You don't think teams want to avoid playing Duke given their record when fully Death Star operational?

Yep, but how about:

Sally Albright: Is he seeing anybody?
Marie: He was seeing this anthropologist, but...
Sally Albright: What's she look like?
Marie: Thin. Pretty. Big tits. Your basic nightmare.

sagegrouse

Chris Randolph
03-17-2013, 12:56 PM
I think I speak for a lot of us when I say that the only thing duke has to fear is duke itself.

This times a million! If we are mentally prepared (focused, together, intelligent, hungry) we will be just fine. Seems like that is a big 'IF' with some of our players

I've seen a few people say they'd like to see Kansas over other top seeds.... I don't think so. They are a top 3 defensive team in the country, have a big guy who can stop Plumlee on his own and guards that can get in the lane. No bueno

CR9
03-17-2013, 01:17 PM
I would honestly love to play Michigan. They're a watered down version of Carolina. I say that because McAdoo is much much better than any big Michigan have got and Hairston is a better player overall, IMO, than anyone they've got. Even Burke, who tends to get frustrated easily and force a lot of shots. Stauskas is a nothing player, Robinson can't shoot and Hardaway is a streaky shooter. Kelly is a match-up nightmare for them.

Troublemaker
03-17-2013, 01:35 PM
I would honestly love to play Michigan. They're a watered down version of Carolina. I say that because McAdoo is much much better than any big Michigan have got and Hairston is a better player overall, IMO, than anyone they've got. Even Burke, who tends to get frustrated easily and force a lot of shots. Stauskas is a nothing player, Robinson can't shoot and Hardaway is a streaky shooter. Kelly is a match-up nightmare for them.

Part of the reason why I wouldn't like a Michigan matchup is b/c McGary has really emerged for them recently. He's a better (more efficient) player than McAdoo.

Burke is one of the best players in the country and 10 times better than Paige.

Stauskas a nothing? Don't see that. Robinson can shoot well enough to sport a 127 ORating. And Hardaway, while streaky, is 6'6" and can get to the basket like his daddy. We have trouble with that.

I don't really see Michigan being worse than UNC at all. They can put the ball on the floor much better.

luburch
03-17-2013, 01:52 PM
I've watched a lot of Michigan and comparing them to Carolina is an insult.

CR9
03-17-2013, 01:57 PM
Part of the reason why I wouldn't like a Michigan matchup is b/c McGary has really emerged for them recently. He's a better (more efficient) player than McAdoo.

Burke is one of the best players in the country and 10 times better than Paige.

Stauskas a nothing? Don't see that. Robinson can shoot well enough to sport a 127 ORating. And Hardaway, while streaky, is 6'6" and can get to the basket like his daddy. We have trouble with that.

I don't really see Michigan being worse than UNC at all. They can put the ball on the floor much better.

I don't know about 'emerged' but McAdoo is a finesse athlete whereas McGary is a banger. I'd rather have McAdoo than McGary but horses for courses.

Burke is a fantastic player but nobody (at least I didn't) said otherwise. He's better than Paige, sure but that's probably the only area which they are superior to Carolina.

Stauskas is a nothing player. Living in B1G country I see a lot of Michigan and Stauskas is a stand-in-the-corner-and-wait kind of player which is a player that can easily be taken out of the game.

I don't know what an O rating is because using averages and numbers in an attempt to compare teams and players to me, is pointless. Robinson can drive the ball very well but unless he's wide, wide open he can't hit the broad side of a barn with a banjo.

Hardaway is another jump shooter. He may be capable of driving the ball but he sure doesn't realize that yet.

captmojo
03-17-2013, 02:18 PM
I've watched a lot of Michigan and comparing them to Carolina is an insult.

To which? :D

Kedsy
03-17-2013, 02:20 PM
I remember in 2010, the consensus on these boards was the nightmare matchup for us was Baylor. Also, most posters commented that West Virginia was a team we wanted no part of.

Just sayin'.

sporthenry
03-17-2013, 02:24 PM
I remember in 2010, the consensus on these boards was the nightmare matchup for us was Baylor. Also, most posters commented that West Virginia was a team we wanted no part of.

Just sayin'.

Baylor was a match up nightmare. Duke just played a very good game and Dre hit 2 huge shots. But I think many would agree that UK was more of a bad match up than WVU was. But your point still stands, Duke can beat anyone and this year, they will more than likely have to face some very good teams along the way. We'll probably end up with Michigan, MSU or Florida as a #3 so I guess we can nitpick about who we match up better with but we'll have to beat a good team if they end up making the S16.

CR9
03-17-2013, 02:24 PM
I remember in 2010, the consensus on these boards was the nightmare matchup for us was Baylor. Also, most posters commented that West Virginia was a team we wanted no part of.

Just sayin'.

I distinctly remember analysts talking up Baylor's athleticism giving Duke fits. I have to admit, the Baylor game was the one that had me most nervous but West Virginia was a game I wasn't really worried about.

sporthenry
03-17-2013, 02:30 PM
Part of the reason why I wouldn't like a Michigan matchup is b/c McGary has really emerged for them recently. He's a better (more efficient) player than McAdoo.

Burke is one of the best players in the country and 10 times better than Paige.

Stauskas a nothing? Don't see that. Robinson can shoot well enough to sport a 127 ORating. And Hardaway, while streaky, is 6'6" and can get to the basket like his daddy. We have trouble with that.

I don't really see Michigan being worse than UNC at all. They can put the ball on the floor much better.

I can't agree with your whole post. I think you overrate their role players a bit but all that really matters is Burke. Duke has shown no ability to stop penetration. March usually comes down to getting easy baskets and Burke is much much better than Paige. I think I'd much rather face MSU even with their big men potentially putting Duke in foul trouble b/c I'd much rather have a game come down to Appling than Burke.

Kedsy
03-17-2013, 02:30 PM
We'll probably end up with Michigan, MSU or Florida as a #3 so I guess we can nitpick about who we match up better with but we'll have to beat a good team if they end up making the S16.

Despite my previous post, Florida scares me a little. And Duke/Michigan would be a really tough game for both teams. Michigan State, I'm not as worried about, although obviously they could beat us depending on circumstances.

sporthenry
03-17-2013, 02:36 PM
Despite my previous post, Florida scares me a little. And Duke/Michigan would be a really tough game for both teams. Michigan State, I'm not as worried about, although obviously they could beat us depending on circumstances.

Well the problem is, whoever comes out of that game will more than likely have to face a 1 seed who had an easier game before that. But then again who knows. Florida is currently trailing and match up wise, I kind of like Duke against them. Mason is taller than Young and he usually doesn't have as much issues with smaller guys. Murphy is a worse Kelly. Wilbekin isn't a huge offensive threat so Curry can guard him. Game will come down to Sheed/TT shutting down Boynton and whoever can win the foul battle down low.

Durham Thunder
03-17-2013, 03:18 PM
Don't want Ohio State, Wisconsin, VCU, or Michigan.

TexHawk
03-17-2013, 03:24 PM
I will be the first to say that because we lost to MD we get what get, however Kansas had some HORRIBLE losses this year. I'm not saying we should be a 1 seed but I am saying that Kansas shouldn't be.

Of course the TCU loss was bad. But how is the loss to Baylor any worse than losing to UVA and Maryland (x2)? All three are likely not likely tournament teams. The other losses were to tournament teams: OSU, OU, and Michigan State (w/o a starter).

Udaman
03-17-2013, 04:41 PM
The last Lunardi bracket is my favorite....he has us as 2 with Kansas, and the 3 seed being Michigan State. I would take that (though he has Creighton as our 7 seed, which would be tough).

Of course he has Florida as a 2 seed.....I don't see that happening. I would love to have them in our group as a 3 seed.

uh_no
03-17-2013, 04:45 PM
The last Lunardi bracket is my favorite....he has us as 2 with Kansas, and the 3 seed being Michigan State. I would take that (though he has Creighton as our 7 seed, which would be tough).

Of course he has Florida as a 2 seed.....I don't see that happening. I would love to have them in our group as a 3 seed.

you must be looking at an old bracket :)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

he has florida as a 3

though i'm still unconvinced we won't get a 1 seed

ynotme32
03-17-2013, 05:22 PM
The only teams that I worry about are the teams that can bust out 80+ points in a blink of an eye. Teams that slug it out (most of the Big East and Big Ten) and score in the 50's and 60's don't worry me as much, I feel Duke can put 70 on the board on a bad night (see the MD game). Louisville is really the only team that scares me from either of those two conferences.

Struggling golfer
03-17-2013, 05:28 PM
Lehigh

Struggling golfer
03-17-2013, 05:32 PM
How about just letting us get past the first weekend. We have beaten Louisville, Ohio State, VCU, albeit early on and we have lost to Maryland twice, UVA, NCState and Miami.

We could lose to anyone and we could beat anyone

Kinda a silly question me thinks !!!

SCMatt33
03-17-2013, 05:43 PM
This goes for any seed, but I don't want to see fast paced teams. The Maryland game was the only one since Kelly came back to cross 70 possessions. UNC and Va Tech were way down at 61 and 59 possessions. With the injuries (Kelly, Curry) that are affecting speed and conditioning, plus the short rotation, Duke has had trouble playing its best in the last 5-10 minutes of games when the pace gets pushed. The good news is that many of the best teams play slow this year, but I wouldn't want to see a team (aside from obvious candidates like Kansas, L'ville, and Indiana) like Mizzou, Arizona, OKST, a rematch with VCU, or anyone else who plays fast.

nmduke2001
03-17-2013, 05:49 PM
I’ll take a shot on scouting New Mexico in case we see them on our bracket.

I honestly think New Mexico could give us the same problems that Maryland did. We struggled with Maryland because they can play defense without double-teaming Mason. Without the double-team, they can stay home on the shooters. New Mexico can do the same things.

New Mexico has two very capable bigs. Alex Kirk is a 7-0 foot sophomore. He has a nice face up game and has range out to the three-point line. Kirk is basically the anti-Scheyer in that he doesn’t have much of a neck at all. He really is much more like a 7-2 player. Mason would have a quickness advantage but Kirk probably wouldn’t need a double-team to defend Mason in the half court. Kirk would also draw Mason away from the basket when Duke is on defense. The other big is a 6-9 Australian bruiser named Cameron Bairstow. Bairstow is a decent defender and opportune scorer. Ryan would likely win this matchup, but Bairstow can frustrate people with his physical play. Tony Snell is probably the best player New Mexico’s team. He’s a 6-8 small forward. At his best, he is a lottery pick but he isn’t always at his best. Snell plays a bit like Harrison Barnes with better handle. If he had the alpha dog gene to go with his talent, he could be very special. He is the exact type of player that gives Duke fits. We don’t have a player that could match up with him especially if Snell plays aggressively. Snell has made 22 of 39 three point shots in the month of March. The point guard is 6-3 sophomore Hugh Greenwood. Greenwood is another Australian. He played really well in the under 19 world championships against the likes of Austin Rivers and Anthony Davis a few years back. Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated stated that Greenwood was the best player in that tournament. Greenwood doesn’t do anything that will blow you away outside of rebounding, but he just seems to make all the plays. He is an incredible rebounder for a point guard and really tough defensively. The shooting guard is 6-4 Kendall Williams. Williams was the Mountain West Player of the Year. (For those that don’t know, the MWC is the number 1 RPI conference in the nation). Williams is my least favorite player on the team. He’s a bit of a hot head and tends to make poor decisions. Having said that, Williams obviously played well throughout the season to earn the MWC Player of the Year Award.

New Mexico is a great defensive team. They play an extremely physical style of play. That style of play can hurt them if the officials are calling a tight game. Offensively, they can struggle at times. They usually have one really long scoring drought per game. When their defense isn’t great, those scoring droughts kill them.

At our best, I think Duke wins pretty easily. However, New Mexico’s defense can keep them in any game. If Snell or Williams gets it going offensively, they are a really tough team to beat.

hurleyfor3
03-17-2013, 06:00 PM
And soon it won't matter.