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moonpie23
03-16-2013, 10:13 PM
Let's try to put yesterday behind us and rate your confidence derived from the year's work of this team.

luburch
03-16-2013, 10:14 PM
Elite eight.

moonpie23
03-16-2013, 10:16 PM
i had a pretty good selection of poll questions, but it only gives you 5 mins to put them together and i had to put the computer down for a few min.....now, dejection over the whole thing..... bummer


oh, and you can't seem to delete a thread and start over....

throatybeard
03-16-2013, 10:24 PM
Somewhere between Ozzie, and the Screaming Howler Panic Monkeys.

Cameron
03-16-2013, 10:25 PM
Second round and out.

We just don't have the toughness we need in the interior. Our poor defensive positioning coupled with a below average night from the field will send us home against a team like Maryland who has big bodies inside and superb slashers.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-16-2013, 10:29 PM
Final Four.

After an easy opening round game and nail-biting Round of 32 matchup, some unexpected upsets allow us to have a surprisingly easy Regional only to run out of gas in the Final 4 against a tough Kansas group.

CR9
03-16-2013, 10:41 PM
Sweet 16, IMO. K's stubbornness and persistence with the 3 guard line-up we be our undoing, like it has with every 3 guard line-up K's ever put out. I hate to say that too cause I thought Duke were perfectly poised early in the season for a championship run.

jay
03-16-2013, 10:44 PM
I want to say Elite 8, but Coach K doesn't get to the Elite 8 without winning it and going to the Final Four (I think he's lost only one E8 game).

And I don't think this team is a Final Four team. There's just that "something" missing.

So I'm going to say Sweet 16, unfortunately.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-16-2013, 10:46 PM
Sweet 16, IMO. K's stubbornness and persistence with the 3 guard line-up we be our undoing, like it has with every 3 guard line-up K's ever put out. I hate to say that too cause I thought Duke were perfectly poised early in the season for a championship run.

If this helps, the 3-guard lineup ends next year without a doubt. Unless you consider Hood a guard;)

MaxAMillion
03-16-2013, 10:49 PM
Sweet 16, IMO. K's stubbornness and persistence with the 3 guard line-up we be our undoing, like it has with every 3 guard line-up K's ever put out. I hate to say that too cause I thought Duke were perfectly poised early in the season for a championship run.

His teams also don't win if they can't hold their own on the boards. Duke has been beaten on the boards routinely of late and I think that will be a problem in the tournament.

OldPhiKap
03-16-2013, 10:52 PM
Final Four, and then it is anyone's game to win.

uh_no
03-16-2013, 10:52 PM
If this helps, the 3-guard lineup ends next year without a doubt. Unless you consider Hood a guard;)

cook thornton dawkins

CR9
03-16-2013, 10:55 PM
If this helps, the 3-guard lineup ends next year without a doubt. Unless you consider Hood a guard;)
Honestly, that's what I was saying last season! 'With Murphy and Jefferson, we'll have to play with a small forward!'. Obviously that didn't materialize no matter how much I attempted to will one of them onto the court through the TV. :(

His teams also don't win if they can't hold their own on the boards. Duke has been beaten on the boards routinely of late and I think that will be a problem in the tournament.

Yep. Another, perhaps the biggest, drawback of the 3 guard line-up. As much as I love the guards on this team, one of them has to sit. Duke bring nothing off the bench in terms of offense. I'd much rather start with defense and rebounding and bring points off the bench than vice versa.

wallyman
03-16-2013, 10:56 PM
Watching Louisville destroy Syracuse, can't really imagine us doing that to a ranked team. Would like to be optimistic and would love to be suprised, but leave out 2010 and our number of NCAAT wins since 2001 has been 2, 2, 4, 2, 0, 1, 2, 2, 0. We're in danger of becoming Oz The Great and Powerful. My heart says we can make a big run but my eyes and recent history say you would not be wise to bet on it. I'm guessing we lose in the Sweet 16 and hoping we win a national championship.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-16-2013, 11:00 PM
cook thornton dawkins

Wow, I guess that's possible but if TT and Dawkins are starting next year at this time, I for one will be sadly disappointed.

davekay1971
03-16-2013, 11:00 PM
Natty.

Book it.

(I always wanted to say something as gooberish as "Natty, book it" and now I have.)

Anyway, since making tournament predictions is absurdly difficult, I might as well make the most fun prediction I can.

My confidence level in that prediction...well, I'm not putting the kids' college funds on it or anything...

uh_no
03-16-2013, 11:14 PM
Wow, I guess that's possible but if TT and Dawkins are starting next year at this time, I for one will be sadly disappointed.

why would dawkins starting make you dissapointed? He's already started 21 games at duke, and is a heck of a shooter.

davekay1971
03-16-2013, 11:15 PM
Watching Louisville destroy Syracuse, can't really imagine us doing that to a ranked team. Would like to be optimistic and would love to be suprised, but leave out 2010 and our number of NCAAT wins since 2001 has been 2, 2, 4, 2, 0, 1, 2, 2, 0. We're in danger of becoming Oz The Great and Powerful. My heart says we can make a big run but my eyes and recent history say you would not be wise to bet on it. I'm guessing we lose in the Sweet 16 and hoping we win a national championship.

2 problems with your post...

1) you choose a sample size specifically 2 exclude our last 2 national championships. Just about any program's not going to look good when you do that. UNC: Since Gut retired, and excluding 2005 and 2009, our wins have been... UConn: since our win in 2004 and excluding 2011, our wins have been... etc. It's just a misleading way of looking at it, choosing a sample to support an argument, rather than arguing the sample at hand. But there are extensive threads on this board discussing Duke's NCAAT performance over time, so no need to rehash it here.

2) I know it's been awhile, but Duke beat the same Louisville team that you just watched destroy Syracuse. I know, I know, the argument will be that Duke isn't as good as it was then (at least compared to other teams). Honestly, that's hard to say. Duke wasn't as good with Ryan out, and Duke wasn't as good on Friday, as it was when we beat Louisville. But Duke was pretty darn good in the 3 games after we got Ryan back and before Friday. So, I don't know. Miami's a legit Final Four contender and we beat them. The way UNC is playing now, they're certain a legit sweet 16 contender and we mopped the floor with them. That huge swath of time with Ryan out makes it really hard to evaluate how Duke has progressed, or not, through the season. I'll agree with anyone that Duke, playing the way they played on Friday, ain't gonna destroy any ranked team, or any tournament team. Duke, playing the way they did at UNC, probably would destroy Syracuse.

davekay1971
03-16-2013, 11:16 PM
why would dawkins starting make you dissapointed? He's already started 21 games at duke, and is a heck of a shooter.

Agreed. I'd be thrilled because Dawkisn starting would mean Dawkins was bringing the kind of offensive and defensive consistency that we spent 3 years hoping to see...the kid can be an absolute beast if he puts it all together.

uh_no
03-16-2013, 11:21 PM
2) I know it's been awhile, but Duke beat the same Louisville team that you just watched destroy Syracuse. I know, I know, the argument will be that Duke isn't as good as it was then (at least compared to other teams). Honestly, that's hard to say. Duke wasn't as good with Ryan out, and Duke wasn't as good on Friday, as it was when we beat Louisville. But Duke was pretty darn good in the 3 games after we got Ryan back and before Friday. So, I don't know. Miami's a legit Final Four contender and we beat them. The way UNC is playing now, they're certain a legit sweet 16 contender and we mopped the floor with them. That huge swath of time with Ryan out makes it really hard to evaluate how Duke has progressed, or not, through the season. I'll agree with anyone that Duke, playing the way they played on Friday, ain't gonna destroy any ranked team, or any tournament team. Duke, playing the way they did at UNC, probably would destroy Syracuse.

to be fair, UL was without dieng....and we barely scraped it out. I'm not sure we win that game if they are at full strength.

davekay1971
03-16-2013, 11:26 PM
to be fair, UL was without dieng....and we barely scraped it out. I'm not sure we win that game if they are at full strength.

Yeah, I was trying to get away with selecting data to fit my argument, after calling out wallyman for doing the same. Guilty as charged. Hopefully we'll get a chance to see how we do with both our teams at full strength, because no matter how we're seeded, we won't see Louisville before the Elite 8, maybe later.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-16-2013, 11:38 PM
why would dawkins starting make you dissapointed? He's already started 21 games at duke, and is a heck of a shooter.

Because I think Rodney Hood has 1st team AA potential next year. Also, Hood is 4 inches taller than Dawkins with close to a 7 ft wingspan. He would provide extreme matchup problems and would help offset the lack of size in the frontcourt.

Dawkins role, IMO, is best suited as a 6th man, high energy with quick scoring punch.

And I guess ya'll forgot about Rasheed, too?

CajunDevil
03-16-2013, 11:41 PM
If we make it past the first weekend, then I think we'll win it all. My guess is based on my theory that we play better when we are underdogs. When we are supposed to win, we tend to get complacent and then use the lame excuse (The Excuse) that the other team was more motivated than us when we lose. Duke's ability to stay hungry regardless of the opponent was a trademark of Duke basketball, but that seems to have faded a bit - with the rise of The Excuse when Miami embarrasses us, or Maryland beats us... twice, or Virginia beats us... This year we have played much better in the rare instances when we were underdogs. Few expected us to beat Kentucky or Louisville, yet we played with poise and passion. Oddsmakers had us as dogs against UNC at Chapel Hill and we were able to dominate them.

We need to have that sense of urgency that was missing yesterday... We need to play with a chip on our shoulder... People think Duke is soft, and lacks physical and mental toughness - evidenced by Duke's lack of true road wins this year. We need that leader(s) to step up and take the reins. It must be Mason, Seth and/or Ryan. Coach K can't do it. Underclassmen can't do it. This is your time Seniors... Leave a legacy. Be Legends.

Let's go, DUKE!

davekay1971
03-16-2013, 11:48 PM
Because I think Rodney Hood has 1st team AA potential next year. Also, Hood is 4 inches taller than Dawkins with close to a 7 ft wingspan. He would provide extreme matchup problems and would help offset the lack of size in the frontcourt.

Dawkins role, IMO, is best suited as a 6th man, high energy with quick scoring punch.

And I guess ya'll forgot about Rasheed, too?

Nope, didn't forget about Rasheed. We're going to be loaded on the perimeter next year. The point of my post was that, if Dawkins is starting when we've got talent like Hood and Sulaimon on the perimeter, that means Dawkins has finally become the player that we all thought he could be, and he's doing it every night. We all know that K doesn't put anyone's name on the starting lineup in ink. If you're starting, that means you're performing better than the next option. If that guy is Dre next season, that means he's performing even better than some other really talented guys. That would be nothing but a good thing.

uh_no
03-16-2013, 11:49 PM
Because I think Rodney Hood has 1st team AA potential next year. Also, Hood is 4 inches taller than Dawkins with close to a 7 ft wingspan. He would provide extreme matchup problems and would help offset the lack of size in the frontcourt.

Dawkins role, IMO, is best suited as a 6th man, high energy with quick scoring punch.

And I guess ya'll forgot about Rasheed, too?

Fair enough....I don't think anyone forgot about anybody...I think it is just in the realm of possibility that dawkins starts next year. K loves experience, and despite taking a year off, andre will have been here for quite some time...and played an integral part in a national championship team.

wallyman
03-16-2013, 11:58 PM
2 problems with your post...

1) you choose a sample size specifically 2 exclude our last 2 national championships. Just about any program's not going to look good when you do that. UNC: Since Gut retired, and excluding 2005 and 2009, our wins have been... UConn: since our win in 2004 and excluding 2011, our wins have been... etc. It's just a misleading way of looking at it, choosing a sample to support an argument, rather than arguing the sample at hand. But there are extensive threads on this board discussing Duke's NCAAT performance over time, so no need to rehash it here.

2) I know it's been awhile, but Duke beat the same Louisville team that you just watched destroy Syracuse. I know, I know, the argument will be that Duke isn't as good as it was then (at least compared to other teams). Honestly, that's hard to say. Duke wasn't as good with Ryan out, and Duke wasn't as good on Friday, as it was when we beat Louisville. But Duke was pretty darn good in the 3 games after we got Ryan back and before Friday. So, I don't know. Miami's a legit Final Four contender and we beat them. The way UNC is playing now, they're certain a legit sweet 16 contender and we mopped the floor with them. That huge swath of time with Ryan out makes it really hard to evaluate how Duke has progressed, or not, through the season. I'll agree with anyone that Duke, playing the way they played on Friday, ain't gonna destroy any ranked team, or any tournament team. Duke, playing the way they did at UNC, probably would destroy Syracuse.


1.Yes on sample size and rehash. But if you expand the sample size back to the late 80s, the trend looks even worse. But yeah, that storyline has been done here already.
2. Someone beat me to it. Louisville was without their center when we played them -- and it was a long time ago. As for Miami, we beat them by 3 at home with Ryan's game for the ages. We got slaughtered at their house (without Ryan). They're playing for ACC Championship. We're sitting at home.
3. Sorry to be a downer, but at least last year Duke was vulnerable damaged goods going into NCAAT without Ryan. No one who was paying attention should have been stunned by Lehigh. This year there's no excuse if we flame out as we have with depressing frequency in recent years. It's great that we're the most consistent program in college basketball, but keep collapsing when it matters and sooner or later we do look like there's not all that much behind the majestic curtain. So if we're lucky, post-Md. panic will look like hilarious overreaction. If we're not, it will look like people freaking out appropriately as they contemplated the prospect of deja vu all over again. OTOH, pre-Md., people were saying we were the team to beat. Hope they were right.

JNort
03-17-2013, 12:00 AM
So many stupid posts in here this thread should be closed... This team will easily make the Elite 8. I think we lose in the championship to Indiana

Troublemaker
03-17-2013, 12:02 AM
I'll tell you when I see the brackets.

I feel very good about this team, but it's all about matchups afterall.

Cameron
03-17-2013, 12:20 AM
So many stupid posts in here this thread should be closed... This team will easily make the Elite 8. I think we lose in the championship to Indiana

If being realistic is stupid then your definition of stupid is different than mine.

This Duke team is in no way, shape or form a lock to "easily" make the Elite Eight. That's not living in reality. Duke could make it there, but if our 2011 and 2002 teams did not "easily" make the Elite Eight, then this year's team not making it would certainly not be a surprise. We are good. We are not dominant. And we can be beaten in the first two rounds.

Kedsy
03-17-2013, 12:30 AM
His teams also don't win if they can't hold their own on the boards. Duke has been beaten on the boards routinely of late and I think that will be a problem in the tournament.

Where'd you get this? In 2001, our defensive rebound percentage was 63.9%, *much* worse than this year's team's 67.1%.



Watching Louisville destroy Syracuse, can't really imagine us doing that to a ranked team.

Wait, didn't we just beat #5 Miami, three games ago. Your imagination seems to need work.

johnb
03-17-2013, 01:03 AM
i had a pretty good selection of poll questions, but it only gives you 5 mins to put them together and i had to put the computer down for a few min.....now, dejection over the whole thing..... bummer


even without the numbers, we get the flavor: angst with a side order of half-baked nihilism.

wait til we also play Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. it'll be a blood bath, at least here, at least after a loss.

sagegrouse
03-17-2013, 01:04 AM
Duke will hang another banner this year. K is very focused this season, and I think we will see consistently excellent performances over the next three weeks. Three four-team tournaments in a row. Win each and advance. When you're done, cut down the nets.

Duke, when it's on, has the best offense in the country. And our defense can rise to the occasion. And, no, I am not gonna let one poor game change my perspective for the season. I think we will have the most intense team in the NCAA tournament.

Anyone else know what a "recency" problem is? It seems like I've spent an entire career dealing with folks who can't remember past what happened yesterday. No. 1 in RPI; 41%+ in three-point shooting, vs. <30% for opponents; more quality wins than any other team. Best coach in the basketball universe.

See ya in Atlanta (drinking in the team hotel after the game).

sagegrouse

Duvall
03-17-2013, 01:13 AM
Where'd you get this? In 2001, our defensive rebound percentage was 63.9%, *much* worse than this year's team's 67.1%.




Wait, didn't we just beat #5 Miami, three games ago. Your imagination seems to need work.

If UNC sneaks into next week's rankings, will that make Duke retroactively less terrible?

scottdude8
03-17-2013, 01:50 AM
In a normal year, this team would have too many weaknesses for me to consider them a national title contender. But every time I think that we're done, I realize that there just aren't any great teams out there. If we were to play a 10 game series against every team in the tournament, I can't see a single one beating us more than 6 or 7out of those 10—meaning, since we only have to play one game against any particular team, we can go far. But this is all IF we get the right matchups.

We can beat anybody this year. We can also lose to anybody. It's all going to come down to what type of basketball we're playing and whether Friday was a wakeup call.

ice-9
03-17-2013, 02:24 AM
This team is still a championship contender and I would be disappointed if we don't get past the first weekend. I would be satisfied getting to the elite eight, and happy if we make the final four. I just hope we get kansas in our bracket whether as a one or two seed and that we don't meet explosive guards along the way.

This is a top ten team for sure, and those expecting a first weekend loss (while not impossible) is over thinking the Maryland loss.

I totally agree with cajun devil's point about this team being better as underdogs. I was a little worried after watching the recent Google hangout video - there just feels like too much back slapping, like an expectation that winning will come easily with Ryan back. I felt that from this board too.

Hopefully the Maryland loss will bring that underdog edge back to this duke team. Maybe it's better for us to to just be a two seed and enter the ncaa tournament looking upwards.

Lord Ash
03-17-2013, 02:24 AM
Make the Sweet 16, maybe. Not any further.

Edouble
03-17-2013, 03:28 AM
If we make it past the first weekend, then I think we'll win it all. My guess is based on my theory that we play better when we are underdogs. When we are supposed to win, we tend to get complacent and then use the lame excuse (The Excuse) that the other team was more motivated than us when we lose. Duke's ability to stay hungry regardless of the opponent was a trademark of Duke basketball, but that seems to have faded a bit - with the rise of The Excuse when Miami embarrasses us, or Maryland beats us... twice, or Virginia beats us... This year we have played much better in the rare instances when we were underdogs. Few expected us to beat Kentucky or Louisville, yet we played with poise and passion. Oddsmakers had us as dogs against UNC at Chapel Hill and we were able to dominate them.

We need to have that sense of urgency that was missing yesterday... We need to play with a chip on our shoulder... People think Duke is soft, and lacks physical and mental toughness - evidenced by Duke's lack of true road wins this year. We need that leader(s) to step up and take the reins. It must be Mason, Seth and/or Ryan. Coach K can't do it. Underclassmen can't do it. This is your time Seniors... Leave a legacy. Be Legends.

Let's go, DUKE!

I see what your saying. I kind of agree.

One problem: Oddsmakers had us losing at UVA, so this is sort of a hole in your argument, as we were technically the underdogs in that game.

slower
03-17-2013, 06:01 AM
Wait, didn't we just beat #5 Miami, three games ago. Your imagination seems to need work.

Note the word "destroy" in the post you reference.

niveklaen
03-17-2013, 06:47 AM
This is a title team. As much as we stress over our losses, every other top team have worses that are much much worse than ours. Winning a title isn't about being a historically great team, its about being the best team in the field. We are the best team in this field.

wsb3
03-17-2013, 07:02 AM
I have no idea how we will do..We don't have great history when we lose in the ACC tourney this early.but obviously hoping to reverse that trend.. Regardless of who we play in the opening game I will be nervously awaiting just how we play those opening minutes. Do we bring high energy and confidence? I sure hope so.

This year their is so little difference in the teams. Certainly not a team I see that does not have some problems. Could be another year where one or even two teams make the Final Four that we are not looking at right now.

Regardless of how it plays out I love DUKE..

slower
03-17-2013, 07:23 AM
I'll tell you when I see the brackets.

I feel very good about this team, but it's all about matchups afterall.


If being realistic is stupid then your definition of stupid is different than mine.

This Duke team is in no way, shape or form a lock to "easily" make the Elite Eight. That's not living in reality. Duke could make it there, but if our 2011 and 2002 teams did not "easily" make the Elite Eight, then this year's team not making it would certainly not be a surprise. We are good. We are not dominant. And we can be beaten in the first two rounds.

These two posts pretty much sum it up. SI's current bracket has us slotted to meet Missouri/San Diego St. in Round 2, and then Syracuse/Oklahoma St. in Sweet 16. The first game would/could be tough. The second of these games would/should be even tougher. A first-round loss doesn't seem probable at all, but it's all up in the air after that.

jv001
03-17-2013, 07:26 AM
After watching lots of bb this weekend, I'm a little concerned about our chances. Most good teams have tough quick guards and the same type wings(6'7-6-9). In particular, Louisville really defends. I know we beat them the first of the year, but they were missing Deing. So I say we're in the picture, but things will need to fall our way and they can. I look for a 2 seed in the West would be good. GoDuke!

slower
03-17-2013, 07:27 AM
We are the best team in this field.

That is your opinion, and your opinion only. Some would agree, while others would disagree. I happen to disagree with your opinion. A lot will have to break right for us to make the Final Four. I fear that we will, as is our recent history, get "out-athleted."

Bob Green
03-17-2013, 08:10 AM
As much as we stress over our losses, every other top team have worses that are much much worse than ours. Winning a title isn't about being a historically great team, its about being the best team in the field.

I agree with this point. As frustrating as the loss to Maryland was it is unfair to judge the team on their performance in that one game. It is the whole body of work that is important and this year's body of work has been impressive.

No team has went undefeated since Indiana in 1976 (32-0) and no champion in the past 36 seasons has had only one loss. Seven of the 36 champions have been two loss teams: Kentucky (1978), Carolina (1982), Duke (1992), UCLA (1995), Kentucky (1996), UConn (1999), Kentucky (2012).

Three of the champions had double digit losses: NC State (1983), Villanova (1985), Kansas (1988). Three more teams had nine losses: Indiana (1981), Arizona (1997), UConn (2011).

The average number of losses for the past 36 champions is 4.94.

Duke's average number of losses in four championship seasons is 4.5 with the 2010 champions having five losses the exact same number the 2013 team currently has.

Looking at the other top teams in 2013, Gonzaga is the only team with only two losses but they play the weakest schedule by far. Louisville has five losses, Kansas has five losses, Indiana has six losses and lost in their conference tournament, Georgetown has six losses and lost in their conference tournament, Michigan has seven losses and lost in their conference tournament, and Michigan State has eight losses and lost in their conference tournament.

Miami with six losses and Ohio State with seven losses play in their conference championship games today.

Overall, I say Duke is in as good of shape as any team heading into the tournament.

davekay1971
03-17-2013, 08:20 AM
I agree with this point. As frustrating as the loss to Maryland was it is unfair to judge the team on their performance in that one game. It is the whole body of work that is important and this year's body of work has been impressive.

No team has went undefeated since Indiana in 1976 (32-0) and no champion in the past 36 seasons has had only one loss. Seven of the 36 champions have been two loss teams: Kentucky (1978), Carolina (1982), Duke (1992), UCLA (1995), Kentucky (1996), UConn (1999), Kentucky (2012).

Three of the champions had double digit losses: NC State (1983), Villanova (1985), Kansas (1988). Three more teams had nine losses: Indiana (1981), Arizona (1997), UConn (2011).

The average number of losses for the past 36 champions is 4.94.

Duke's average number of losses in four championship seasons is 4.5 with the 2010 champions having five losses the exact same number the 2013 team currently has.

Looking at the other top teams in 2013, Gonzaga is the only team with only two losses but they play the weakest schedule by far. Louisville has five losses, Kansas has five losses, Indiana has six losses and lost in their conference tournament, Georgetown has six losses and lost in their conference tournament, Michigan has seven losses and lost in their conference tournament, and Michigan State has eight losses and lost in their conference tournament.

Miami with six losses and Ohio State with seven losses play in their conference championship games today.

Overall, I say Duke is in as good of shape as any team heading into the tournament.

Bob, how dare you throw a wet blanket on the panic party with your pesky facts?! I swear to you, when I was walking into work this morning, something hit me on the head and when I looked to see what it was, it was a piece of the sky. And it was Carolina blue! Aaaaaaaaaaaaack!

Troublemaker
03-17-2013, 08:36 AM
In particular, Louisville really defends. I know we beat them the first of the year, but they were missing Deing.

Once the brackets are revealed, I wouldn't focus at all on the top teams. It's really about the 1st-round, 2nd-round, 3rd-round matchups.

If everyone is right about this year's top teams being weak relatively to past seasons, and if everyone is right about this year's tournament being unpredictable and full of upsets, what we need to worry about is just not getting upset ourselves.

Survive and advance. Keep beating teams we're "supposed" to beat. Do that 4 times and we might find ourselves with a very nice present waiting at the end: a Final Four berth alongside two four seeds and a six seed, or something like that.

With all that said, those are the things my head think. My gambling / contrarian / karma gut instincts tell me that this "wild and wacky" tournament would have a heck of a lot better chance to take place if the entire college bball punditry weren't predicting it. The basketball Gods have some sort of "Thou (that means you Digger) shalt not be right" commandment, and this upset-laden tourney would occur more easily if we had Digger advancing 4 1-seeds to Atlanta, as usual.

The pundits are going to go out of their way to pick upsets this year... and we'll see.

Buckeye Devil
03-17-2013, 08:42 AM
The Maryland game was awful but it seems to have put a damper on a lot of people's opinion of Duke's tourney prospects. Duke is clearly not the best team in the field-that seems to be Louisville-but I am not willing to throw in the towel just yet. Like others have said, it all depends on the draw/matchups. And we know the type of teams that will have the best chance to upend Duke.

But honestly, isn't it hard to say that Duke isn't one of the top 8 teams in the nation? And once you get to the Elite 8 anything can happen. I don't see any early exits this year. Elite 8 and maybe more.

Saratoga2
03-17-2013, 09:31 AM
We are going to have to win games by outscoring opponents. Our defense is pretty bad so that means we have to score effficiently and often. Only the Pope is infallable, but my understanding of the tournament is that only good defensive teams survive and advance. Hard to say we are good defensively after such a poor showing twice against Maryland, poor defense against Virginia and needing 36 out of Ryan to win against Miami at home. Plenty of other examples of defensive weakness.

The positives include Seth who will get his points, Mason who is scoring fairly well unless doubled, Quinn who will probably manage double digits scoring and Rasheed coming back at the right time. If we score in the 70's is that enough?

freshmanjs
03-17-2013, 09:34 AM
We are going to have to win games by outscoring opponents.

which are the teams that can win without outscoring their opponents?

OldPhiKap
03-17-2013, 09:54 AM
Duke will hang another banner this year. K is very focused this season, and I think we will see consistently excellent performances over the next three weeks. Three four-team tournaments in a row. Win each and advance. When you're done, cut down the nets.

Duke, when it's on, has the best offense in the country. And our defense can rise to the occasion. And, no, I am not gonna let one poor game change my perspective for the season. I think we will have the most intense team in the NCAA tournament.

Anyone else know what a "recency" problem is? It seems like I've spent an entire career dealing with folks who can't remember past what happened yesterday. No. 1 in RPI; 41%+ in three-point shooting, vs. <30% for opponents; more quality wins than any other team. Best coach in the basketball universe.

See ya in Atlanta (drinking in the team hotel after the game).

sagegrouse


A-men.

Oh, ye of little faith. Satan, get behind me!

nobodybutDUKE
03-17-2013, 09:59 AM
There are many great analytical basketball minds on this thread, and I don't claim to be one of them, however
our destination and time is simple. We shoot 40% or better from 3 range in our games we go far. Possibly winning
it all. We have our dreaded oops game (below 40%) we are done at that time. That is just who we are. Just one
man's opinion.

NashvilleDevil
03-17-2013, 10:04 AM
I think Duke makes it to the Final Four and as others said after that it's a crapshoot,, especially this year. I think Duke makes it look easy the first weekend

mgtr
03-17-2013, 10:49 AM
Obviously we have make shots, but I think if we lose it will be about defense. One player from the other team goes off and we cannot stop him. That has happened before, and that is my concern. Of course that could happen at any time, but I will say the Sweet 16.

ncexnyc
03-17-2013, 11:57 AM
I have no idea how we will do..We don't have great history when we lose in the ACC tourney this early.but obviously hoping to reverse that trend.. Regardless of who we play in the opening game I will be nervously awaiting just how we play those opening minutes. Do we bring high energy and confidence? I sure hope so.

This year their is so little difference in the teams. Certainly not a team I see that does not have some problems. Could be another year where one or even two teams make the Final Four that we are not looking at right now.

Regardless of how it plays out I love DUKE..
Funny you mention our history when we flame out early in the ACC tourney. I watched the game Friday night and the announcer (Mike Hogwood?), ran off a bunch of stats about Duke's success at Greensboro, at which point I said to myself thanks for jinxing us. So what did history do for us Friday night? Jack, that's what.

As others have said, there isn't a great team out there in college basketball this year, just a bunch of very good teams. We're squarely in the debate for a National Championship and while I won't bet us against the field, I'll be happy to bet us against a specific team.

Udaman
03-17-2013, 12:22 PM
The CBSsports site has us as the #2 in the East with Louisville as the #1 and Michigan as the #3.....I would call that pretty much a "worse case scenario." In looking at their bracket, all of the other regions seem like a joke in comparison (as well they should). Here's hoping we face neither of those teams.

I think the best case for Duke is that the loss to Maryland ended the "they haven't lost with Kelly in the lineup talk" which knocked us down a peg or two and let us know that with him in the lineup we need to work just as hard. I hope the team goes back and looks at the tape of how we played back in November/December against VCU, Minnesota, Louisville and Ohio State (and Miami and UNC most recently). That's how hungry and desperate we need to be.

Les Grossman
03-17-2013, 12:37 PM
they are good enough to get to the 8, that is clear to me.
After that, depends on the match ups. Could end at 8 or go all the way.

slower
03-17-2013, 12:38 PM
they are good enough to get to the 8, that is clear to me.
After that, depends on the match ups. Could end at 8 or go all the way.

It just depends on the bracket. Don't fool yourself - it can definitely end before the 8.

Gmadaduke
03-17-2013, 12:53 PM
Let me start by saying that I detest the way we played against Maryland. I think it was one of the most painful losses I've seen in recent times - not only was it to a team that I particularly despise (and won't miss at all), but it ruined what otherwise should have been a great weekend of basketball.

Still, I can't help but think that if that game had not gone down like it did and we'd won and then lost to UNC or Miami, attitudes would be a lot more positive right now. Wells's performance was uncannily similar to what Derrick Williams did to us a few seasons back. It was just one of those perfect storm games where (i) a guy has a career game and just can't miss, (ii) we can't buy a bucket from the 3-point line, and (iii) the intensity just isn't there. Plus, it was really the first game while we've had Kelly that no one stepped up on our end to carry the team on its back. Sheed tried, but it just wasn't quite enough.

I've decided to put the Maryland game out of my mind. Sure, we likely blew our #1 seed, but this team can still go all the way or be beat in the first weekend. I'm looking to Mason, Ryan and Curry to come out swinging in each tournament game and show me what they're made of.

rifraf
03-17-2013, 12:56 PM
This is another year where it feels like we're playing as awesome now as we were in Nov, but other teams are playing better than they were.

I think we'll make the Sweet 16, but then it's completely about the match up. I don't see this team winning a "woah we didn't think Duke would win that matchup" kind of game.

Intensity is our wildcard this year (as opposed to a player); I think we will get exactly what we expect from most of our players, and the "Which_____ will show up tonight?" question is actually Intensity this year. Hope that made sense...

Chris Randolph
03-17-2013, 01:06 PM
In 2010 I was a 10 going into the tournament (crushed UNC, played well in ACCT and had the right chemistry/pieces). In 2011 I was a 8 (played great in ACCT but knew working back Kyrie would have a negative impact on Nolan). In 2012 I was a -5 (no Ryan, no chemistry, Rivers over-hyped).

This season I am a 6. We have great pieces to this team and have shown great moments recently. My concerns are the ball pressure defense that gets us beat off the dribble and lack of rebounding (2 things 2010 didn't allow) The pitiful performance on Friday is disheartening because it makes you question how a team could be so flat and lack focus going into tournament season/playing for championships, especially when you have 3 seniors who should not allow that.

jipops
03-17-2013, 01:13 PM
I have no clue but posting here anyways. After the brackets are announced I'll still probably have very little clue. I think a lot depends on Kelly's conditioning. My dent in confidence is our off/on struggle on defense. Hopefully our shooters are hot for the next few weeks.

Buckeye Devil
03-17-2013, 01:28 PM
The CBSsports site has us as the #2 in the East with Louisville as the #1 and Michigan as the #3.....I would call that pretty much a "worse case scenario." In looking at their bracket, all of the other regions seem like a joke in comparison (as well they should). Here's hoping we face neither of those teams.

I think the best case for Duke is that the loss to Maryland ended the "they haven't lost with Kelly in the lineup talk" which knocked us down a peg or two and let us know that with him in the lineup we need to work just as hard. I hope the team goes back and looks at the tape of how we played back in November/December against VCU, Minnesota, Louisville and Ohio State (and Miami and UNC most recently). That's how hungry and desperate we need to be.

Getting in a bracket like that would absolutely be awful. UM and Louisville would not be favorable matchups. But it wouldn't be the first time that the committee put Duke in the absolute worst bracket possible. It seems to happen quite frequently.

MarkD83
03-17-2013, 01:29 PM
Obviously we have make shots, but I think if we lose it will be about defense. One player from the other team goes off and we cannot stop him. That has happened before, and that is my concern. Of course that could happen at any time, but I will say the Sweet 16.

1. On defense, in Duke's recent losses:

Joe Harris has a career night
Dez Wells drops 30
The disaster in Miami: Kadji goes crazy from 3.

Duke needs to concentrate their defense so they don't get "Bootsied"

2. On offense, Duke's losses this year seem to be due to Opponent Familiarity with Duke. ACC opponents keep trying different ways to defend Mason as well as Ryan and our outside shooters. Someone who is not as fimilar with Duke may not have time to adjust their defense to cover all of these options. Of course, like all teams in the tournament one bad shooting night and your done. This is not a weakness for Duke but a weakness for everyone in the tournament.

sporthenry
03-17-2013, 01:46 PM
Watching Louisville destroy Syracuse, can't really imagine us doing that to a ranked team. Would like to be optimistic and would love to be suprised, but leave out 2010 and our number of NCAAT wins since 2001 has been 2, 2, 4, 2, 0, 1, 2, 2, 0. We're in danger of becoming Oz The Great and Powerful. My heart says we can make a big run but my eyes and recent history say you would not be wise to bet on it. I'm guessing we lose in the Sweet 16 and hoping we win a national championship.

Well first, I fail to see how destroying a ranked team matters. Duke can beat a ranked team by 5 and still win it all. Duke isn't really built to blow out ranked teams, just beat them. Although if they get hot, they can certainly do that. But Wisconsin won't destroy a ranked team yet they just beat 2 top 10 teams in the BE tournament.

As far as Duke's run, I highly doubt many programs have a better track record than Duke does even with several disappointing runs. Only 4 teams can make the F4 and look at a team like UK who isn't even in the tourney this year. But lets look at the years you cited (and ignore the 2001 run) although it is ridiculous to rule out the 2010 run so I won't do that.

In the last 11 years, Duke has 21 wins. UNC has 27, UK has 24, MSU has 21, Indiana has 10, Syracuse 16, UCLA 17, Louisville 16, Kansas 32, Gonzaga 10, Xavier 15, Georgetown 8, Florida 20.

Forgive me if I forgot some teams but it appears KU is in a group by itself and Duke trails UNC by a half win a year or the 2001 run. And even without the 2001 title, they still have as many wins as MSU, the team who dominated the NCAAT recently or Florida who won 2 titles between then and now.

sporthenry
03-17-2013, 01:53 PM
Overall, I say Duke is in as good of shape as any team heading into the tournament.

This is really all that matters and I'm not sure how many can disagree with it. No team is a real prohibitive favorite to make the F4 or win it all. Duke has maybe what a 10% chance to win it all. I'm not sure I'd put anyone way above that and from a fan of one team, sure it looks daunting but when you look at it from a universal perspective, Duke has as good a chance as any.

Same could be said of them losing in the 2nd round. Second round will feature some giant beaters and very good mid-majors. Duke has already lost to NC State and teams like Iowa State, Illinois, and Minnesota have already proven they can beat anyone on a given night. Sure Duke could lose but they'll probably be in the 65-75% favorite area according to Kenpom. So they could lose 1 in 4 times, but that is just how close these teams seem to be.

Bob Green
03-17-2013, 01:57 PM
Duke needs to concentrate their defense so they don't get "Bootsied"



One fact, which is often overlooked/forgotten is Duke won the Bootsie game. I can deal with six straight "Bootsie" games in the tournament.

TNDukeFan
03-17-2013, 02:01 PM
1. On defense, in Duke's recent losses:

Joe Harris has a career night
Dez Wells drops 30
The disaster in Miami: Kadji goes crazy from 3.

Derrick Williams and Arizona. Different year, but still germane...

Kedsy
03-17-2013, 02:03 PM
Only the Pope is infallable, but my understanding of the tournament is that only good defensive teams survive and advance.

At this moment, Duke's defense is ranked 26th in Pomeroy. At this point in 2009 (just before the NCAAT), UNC's defense ranked 35th in Pomeroy and Villanova's ranked 25th. At this point in 2010, West Virginia's defense ranked 24th in Pomeroy and Michigan State's ranked 27th. At this point in 2011, Connecticut's D ranked 31st in Pomeroy, Kentucky's ranked 22nd, Butler's ranked 77th, and VCU's ranked 59th.

So that's eight teams in the last four years that made the Final Four (including two champions) with defenses either comparable to or worse than Duke's D this year.


There are many great analytical basketball minds on this thread, and I don't claim to be one of them, however
our destination and time is simple. We shoot 40% or better from 3 range in our games we go far. Possibly winning
it all. We have our dreaded oops game (below 40%) we are done at that time. That is just who we are. Just one
man's opinion.

While it's true that Duke shot below 40% from three in all five of our losses, it's also true that we won the other nine games this year in which we shot below 40% from long distance, including victories over NCAA tournament teams Florida Gulf Coast, Louisville, VCU, and UNC (twice). So I don't think it's nearly as simple as you make it out to be.


My concerns are the ball pressure defense that gets us beat off the dribble and lack of rebounding (2 things 2010 didn't allow).

Well, first of all, this year's team's defensive rebounding is almost exactly the same as we had in 2010. This year we rebound 67.1% of our opponents' misses and in 2010 we rebounded 67.5% of our opponents' misses. Second, while its true the 2010 team didn't apply the same kind of ball pressure, that team got beat off the dribble plenty. That team still had a great defense because our bigs were excellent at rotating over to help. In the first two months of this season, before Ryan got hurt, we also had a top ten defense, in large part for the same reason. Obviously we won't know until it happens (or doesn't), but I'm hopeful our D can get back to that level with another week of practices with Ryan.

TruBlu
03-17-2013, 04:09 PM
In 2010 I was a 10 going into the tournament (crushed UNC, played well in ACCT and had the right chemistry/pieces). In 2011 I was a 8 (played great in ACCT but knew working back Kyrie would have a negative impact on Nolan). In 2012 I was a -5 (no Ryan, no chemistry, Rivers over-hyped).

This season I am a 6. We have great pieces to this team and have shown great moments recently. My concerns are the ball pressure defense that gets us beat off the dribble and lack of rebounding (2 things 2010 didn't allow) The pitiful performance on Friday is disheartening because it makes you question how a team could be so flat and lack focus going into tournament season/playing for championships, especially when you have 3 seniors who should not allow that.

Wow! Your looks really vary from year to year. Once upon a time I thought I might be around a 7, but that number has steadily and rapidly decreased over the years. But what does that have to do with basketball?;)

Chris Randolph
03-17-2013, 04:30 PM
Wow! Your looks really vary from year to year. Once upon a time I thought I might be around a 7, but that number has steadily and rapidly decreased over the years. But what does that have to do with basketball?;)

Lol. I'm just going off of what I see and watch all season long. I was once a 9.5 but have been downgraded to a 9.2 :)