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sagegrouse
03-02-2013, 12:27 PM
The Crimson Tide lead by eight in the second half with 12 minutes to go. Game is in Gainesville.

sagegrouse

pfrduke
03-02-2013, 12:33 PM
Relatedly, there's a slaughter alert in effect for VCU-Butler. The Rams were up 45-21 at the half and lead by 18 with 12 to play. Havoc has been in full force.

pfrduke
03-02-2013, 12:42 PM
Relatedly, there's a slaughter alert in effect for VCU-Butler. The Rams were up 45-21 at the half and lead by 18 with 12 to play. Havoc has been in full force.

And by 24 with 9 to play. Plus, we got a "you let the whole team down" from the Rams crowd after a Butler turnover.

sagegrouse
03-02-2013, 12:57 PM
The Crimson Tide lead by eight in the second half with 12 minutes to go. Game is in Gainesville.

sagegrouse

As you were. Florida ahead by six with 1:43. -- sage

sporthenry
03-02-2013, 12:59 PM
Louisville/Cuse tied with about a minute left.

More bad basketball to finish a game. Louisville at the line with 1:30 left down 1. Hit the first, miss the second but get the rebound and get fouled again. Miss both of them. Then Syracuse comes down and gets an inbound stolen.

pfrduke
03-02-2013, 01:28 PM
It seems like Denis Klicli has been at West Virginia for 7 years.

slower
03-02-2013, 02:32 PM
Relatedly, there's a slaughter alert in effect for VCU-Butler. The Rams were up 45-21 at the half and lead by 18 with 12 to play. Havoc has been in full force.

Wow. Crushed. :D

I love it, actually, as I'm not a big Butler fan. They operate right on the razor's edge of legality and dirty play. I know that puts me in the minority among the Stevens-worshippers around here, but so be it.

vick
03-02-2013, 03:12 PM
Creighton beats Wichita St. 91-79 to clinch the MVC regular season. Doug McDermott with 41 points on 15-18 shooting (and 6-6 from the line), to go along with 6 rebounds and 3 assists. I would guess a performance like that, on ESPN no less, pretty much seals up first-team all-American for McDermott unless something really strange happens in the next couple of weeks.

dukelifer
03-02-2013, 03:31 PM
It seems like Denis Klicli has been at West Virginia for 7 years.

KU crushed West Virginia. Kansas could be a FF team.

Troublemaker
03-02-2013, 03:41 PM
I'm glad Florida won. In the latest Lunardi, he actually had them projected as a 3 seed. How sick would that be to get in your bracket, the #1 Pomeroy team as your 3 seed!

BlueDevilBrowns
03-02-2013, 03:41 PM
KU crushed West Virginia. Kansas could be a FF team.

KU is a bit streaky for my taste, but when they're on, they're dominant. I think the 1 flaw Kansas has is shaky PG play, hence the inconsistencies in performance.

In most recent years, 1 team from the previous FF returns the next year, so I suppose they have a 1 in 3 chance(sorry UK).

BlueDevilBrowns
03-02-2013, 03:45 PM
I'm glad Florida won. In the latest Lunardi, he actually had them projected as a 3 seed. How sick would that be to get in your bracket, the #1 Pomeroy team as your 3 seed!

I think this is shaping up to be one of those years when it's pretty obvious who is In or Out of the NCAAT by Selection Sunday but no one will have ANY clue how those teams will be seeded.

sporthenry
03-02-2013, 03:51 PM
I think this is shaping up to be one of those years when it's pretty obvious who is In or Out of the NCAAT by Selection Sunday but no one will have ANY clue how those teams will be seeded.

What year was that ever the case. The last 4-8 teams will always be up for question because there is no way to know how the committee will see things. Will they emphasize SOS, RPI, top 50 wins, etc.

As far as what this year and the brackets, it will probably be a year when the brackets will be extremely lopsided depending upon what you go by. If you go by computer rankings like Kenpom, you'll have some ridiculous brackets, and if you go by rankings alone, you'll probably have different brackets that are stronger or weaker.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-03-2013, 12:30 AM
KU crushed West Virginia. Kansas could be a FF team.

Another player went for 36 today :) Happy for Ben McLemore, he is a tremendous young player

dukelifer
03-03-2013, 07:12 AM
Another player went for 36 today :) Happy for Ben McLemore, he is a tremendous young player

Read his story in USA today. He comes from an incredibly poor background - with a brother in prison. He seems to have embraced the college life after sitting out a year to focus on his studies- but needs to make money and now. That sort of motivation can either crush you or take you to new heights. The kid might just take KU on a ride in the post season.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-03-2013, 07:18 AM
What year was that ever the case. The last 4-8 teams will always be up for question because there is no way to know how the committee will see things. Will they emphasize SOS, RPI, top 50 wins, etc.

As far as what this year and the brackets, it will probably be a year when the brackets will be extremely lopsided depending upon what you go by. If you go by computer rankings like Kenpom, you'll have some ridiculous brackets, and if you go by rankings alone, you'll probably have different brackets that are stronger or weaker.

I can remember more than 1 year in the last decade where the story after Selection Sunday was not "who was left out" but why was team X seeded (-) and team Y was seeded (-). I can't remember the exact years, but I clearly remember this being the case. 2010 with Duke and WVU comes to mind. It seems like Fla's seeding a couple of years ago was controversial as well.

Further, to your point above, when was there a year when more than 4 teams were left out of the tournament that most experts thought should get in? Normally, it's 1, 2, or maybe 3 at the most that are controversial.

With a 68 team field now, I think the emphasis will continue to be less on "The Bubble" and more on seeding, especially when teams seem so even this year.

oldnavy
03-03-2013, 08:01 AM
I can remember more than 1 year in the last decade where the story after Selection Sunday was not "who was left out" but why was team X seeded (-) and team Y was seeded (-). I can't remember the exact years, but I clearly remember this being the case. 2010 with Duke and WVU comes to mind. It seems like Fla's seeding a couple of years ago was controversial as well.

Further, to your point above, when was there a year when more than 4 teams were left out of the tournament that most experts thought should get in? Normally, it's 1, 2, or maybe 3 at the most that are controversial.

With a 68 team field now, I think the emphasis will continue to be less on "The Bubble" and more on seeding, especially when teams seem so even this year.

Seeding is going to be very interesting this year with so many teams that are very close talent wise and very few easy top seed choices.... I agree, I think the focus this year will be seeding not, last 4 out.

Now, the last 4 out will get some attention, it always does, but I am much more interested in the seeding.

sagegrouse
03-03-2013, 08:34 AM
I think this is shaping up to be one of those years when it's pretty obvious who is In or Out of the NCAAT by Selection Sunday but no one will have ANY clue how those teams will be seeded.


What year was that ever the case. The last 4-8 teams will always be up for question because there is no way to know how the committee will see things. Will they emphasize SOS, RPI, top 50 wins, etc.

As far as what this year and the brackets, it will probably be a year when the brackets will be extremely lopsided depending upon what you go by. If you go by computer rankings like Kenpom, you'll have some ridiculous brackets, and if you go by rankings alone, you'll probably have different brackets that are stronger or weaker.

More power to Joe Lunardi for making a buck on bracketology, but it is a fool's errand. I tend to disagree with both BDBrowns and Henry in that I think it will be crystal clear which 3-5 teams have a strong case for a #1 seed. The TSC gives a good deal of weight to the conference tournaments, both because the NCAA is a creature of the conferences and because those are the last games played.

Continuing on this line, I would expect the Big Ten winner (if Indiana, Michigan or Michigan State), the ACC winner (if Duke or Miami), the Big East winner (if Georgetown or Louisville), the Big 12 winner (if KU), the SEC winner (if Florida), and the WCC winner (only if Gonzaga) to have claims on a #1. That would be six claimants -- potentially -- but there are bound to be upsets.

By my reckoning, the only way a conference gets two #1's is if there are three upsets in the six tournaments listed. An "upset" is if one of the teams listed above does NOT win.

Suppose the conferences are "form-ful" ("canonical?") and there are six winners from the ten teams listed above. Then two of the conference winners get a #2 seed, such as, for example, if Indiana, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Florida and the Zags all win. I suppose Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga get #1's -- leaving Kansas, Georgetown and Florida to fight for the fourth. And that's the extreme case.

It's a mystery today -- but it will seem obvious seven days from now, although I am sure the human brain, the media, the Internet, and the Twitterverse wil find a way to promote controversy.

sagegrouse

FerryFor50
03-03-2013, 10:41 AM
Lost in this discussion is that Kentucky lost and is in very real danger of missing the NCAAs.

Wonder what that will do for the one and done strategy?

NashvilleDevil
03-03-2013, 10:58 AM
Lost in this discussion is that Kentucky lost and is in very real danger of missing the NCAAs.

Wonder what that will do for the one and done strategy?

They'll leave and another crop will come in.

FerryFor50
03-03-2013, 11:10 AM
They'll leave and another crop will come in.

You don't think it's a passing fad that will eventually lose its appeal once kids start recognizing the negatives?

Only one ball with all those stars...

timmy c
03-03-2013, 12:06 PM
You don't think it's a passing fad that will eventually lose its appeal once kids start recognizing the negatives?

Only one ball with all those stars...

I don't see kids wanting to get to the NBA as a fast as they can as a passing fade. Nor do I think that most kids have enough perspective to understand that a one year version of the fab-5 approach contains a a whole host of potential problems.

Your point about one ball is right on. It will be interesting to see how UK handles the Harrison twins next year. Tons of talent but draft express describes Andrew's weaknesses like this:
-needs to improve without the ball.
-Gets tunnel vision. Overdribbles excessively. Loose with the ball. Forces issue. Very turnover prone at times
-Up and down with energy level
-Doesn't always compete on defense. Lets previous play affect him. Fails to get back.
-Body language can be very poor. Complains to teammates, referees. Needs to do a better job dealing with adversity.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2MV5Qsesh
http://www.draftexpress.com

To get us back on topic... Saturday's loss puts the current UK squad in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAA tourney. Coach Cal is complaining that he has guys that can't be coached but have to play?!? Seems to me that he recruited these guys and now that things aren't going so well he'd like to throw a few of his players under the bus.

Listen to Quants
03-03-2013, 12:17 PM
You don't think it's a passing fad that will eventually lose its appeal once kids start recognizing the negatives?

Only one ball with all those stars...

For various reasons I hope it is a passing fad, but I doubt it passes at all fast unless the rules creating the situation change. Why wouldn't a kid who sees the NBA as his realistic goal not go to UK? The money is better, the training is good, no distractions from classes and such, and a sharp focus on making the NBA.

FerryFor50
03-03-2013, 12:27 PM
To get us back on topic... Saturday's loss puts the current UK squad in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAA tourney. Coach Cal is complaining that he has guys that can't be coached but have to play?!? Seems to me that he recruited these guys and now that things aren't going so well he'd like to throw a few of his players under the bus.

This is another important point. How many kids will hear Cal's comments as say "wow, he really doesn't have my back. His act is all a sham - fair weather coach."

It's all dodgeball and Jay Z when things go well.... How will it be when they miss the NCAAs?

Kids can make it to the nba at any school. Look at Damian Lillard, Kenneth Faried, Norris Cole...

They will start to realize that all roads to cash aren't necessarily through Lexington.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-03-2013, 12:59 PM
More power to Joe Lunardi for making a buck on bracketology, but it is a fool's errand. I tend to disagree with both BDBrowns and Henry in that I think it will be crystal clear which 3-5 teams have a strong case for a #1 seed.

It's a mystery today -- but it will seem obvious seven days from now, although I am sure the human brain, the media, the Internet, and the Twitterverse wil find a way to promote controversy.

sagegrouse

Let me clarify my original point. I do think seeding will be controversial and hard to predict, but not just the top line. Your point about Conference Tournaments determining the 1 line sounds logical and probably correct, but what about seeds 2-4? The parity is even more pronounced after the top 4 lines. As an example, is there a huge difference let's say between Arizona and UNC right now? Their resumes are similar with an edge to AZ. Yet, as of today, Arizona would be a 4/5 seed and UNC probably 7-9 seed according to "experts". On a neutral court, though, I'm sure UNC would be the favorite. So while the top line or two may indeed be clear, we could be in for a big surprise below that.

ARIZONA:
AP RANK 11 CONF. W-L 11-6 LAST 12 7-5
RPI 13 NON-CONF. W-L 12-0 vs. RPI TOP 25 2-0
vs. D-1 23-6 NON-CONF. SOS 17 vs. RPI TOP 50 5-5
vs. NON-D-1 0-0 NON-CONF. RPI 8 vs. RPI TOP 100 10-6
SOS 34 SCORING MARGIN 9.80 vs. RPI TOP 150 13-6
OPPONENT SOS 22 NEUTRAL W-L 3-0 vs. RPI SUB 150 10-0
ROAD W-L 7-4

UNC
AP RANK -- CONF. W-L 10-5 LAST 12 9-3
RPI 18 NON-CONF. W-L 9-3 vs. RPI TOP 25 1-4
vs. D-1 19-8 NON-CONF. SOS 83 vs. RPI TOP 50 2-6
vs. NON-D-1 1-0 NON-CONF. RPI 28 vs. RPI TOP 100 5-7
SOS 12 SCORING MARGIN 7.50 vs. RPI TOP 150 11-8
OPPONENT SOS 16 NEUTRAL W-L 1-1 vs. RPI SUB 150 8-0
ROAD W-L 5-6

weezie
03-03-2013, 03:39 PM
I'm glad Florida won. In the latest Lunardi, he actually had them projected as a 3 seed. How sick would that be to get in your bracket, the #1 Pomeroy team as your 3 seed!

I'm starting to think Lunardi is either smoking something odd or just trying to maintain everyone's attention. Gtown as a one?! Gonzaga after their "fierce" season of staggering, powerhouse opponents?
Just makes for water cooler chatter on Monday.

sporthenry
03-03-2013, 04:03 PM
More power to Joe Lunardi for making a buck on bracketology, but it is a fool's errand. I tend to disagree with both BDBrowns and Henry in that I think it will be crystal clear which 3-5 teams have a strong case for a #1 seed. The TSC gives a good deal of weight to the conference tournaments, both because the NCAA is a creature of the conferences and because those are the last games played.

My point wasn't so much who is going to be the #1's. I'm not sure it will be crystal clear but certainly some teams will play themselves out of the discussion. My main point is that there will be some good teams that seem underseeded. People are a bit up in arms with Florida as a 3 but who do you put them in front of? Gonzaga, Indiana, Duke, Miami, and Kansas are seemingly definitely ahead of them. Then you have Louisville, Georgetown, Syracuse, Florida, Michigan State, Michigan and even K-State. I could seemingly see any of them on the 2 line. And Jerry Palm, CBS' resident bracketologist also has Florida as a 3 but has New Mexico on the 2 line.

But think about this for a second (and ignore any bracketing principles I might break), you could have Duke as a 1, Florida and Louisville on the 2/3, Wisconsin on the 4, and Pittsburgh as the 6 and you would have 5 of the top 10 teams according to Pomeroy in one bracket.

sagegrouse
03-03-2013, 04:05 PM
For various reasons I hope it is a passing fad, but I doubt it passes at all fast unless the rules creating the situation change. Why wouldn't a kid who sees the NBA as his realistic goal not go to UK? The money is better, the training is good, no distractions from classes and such, and a sharp focus on making the NBA.

The Kentucky NBA train is likely to be unstable in the long run. Here's how it fails. The 'Cats, say, recruit, five highly regarded recruits every season. A couple stay around for another year or so, and three or more go to the NBA. That engine works because there is room in the starting lineup and rotation for the new players. That is, if it works like it is supposed to. Here are three ways the Kentucky engine turns into a clunker (throws a rod not a Piston?).

1. Only one freshman, say, decides to leave for the NBA. Why? They're not good enough, say, since no one -- not even -- Cal can predict with 100 percent accuracy and the others are not projected as NBA picks. Then the five new recruits need to fight for playing time and maybe even for a scholarship. Not good. Parents are unhappy. Players are unhappy. Then the next year there may be no scholarships to give out. Or, at the end of the freshman year, he kicks guys out of the program and forces them to transfer. Not good either. Both situations result in chaos and diminish the attractiveness of Kentucky as a destination.

2. The freshman are real busts in the NBA. This takes a little longer to unwind, but it sure makes selling Kentucky harder.

3. Kentucky never wins anything else. How many times will a freshman-dominated team be likely to advance to the Final Four? The FF has happened once -- last year. It may not happen very often. Who wants to go to a program and lose, when you could go elsewhere and win?

sagegrouse

NashvilleDevil
03-03-2013, 04:20 PM
You don't think it's a passing fad that will eventually lose its appeal once kids start recognizing the negatives?

Only one ball with all those stars...

As long as Calipari is at Kentucky no. I think he wants another NBA shot and if the Kings move to Seattle maybe he's given a Godfather offer to coach there.

All recent recruits know is that Calipari has coached 3 #1 picks, been to a handful of Final Fours and won a title. Plus he coached Derrick Rose one of the most popular players in the NBA. This year has been his worst at UK and I think that's more of a blip.

sporthenry
03-03-2013, 04:23 PM
The Kentucky NBA train is likely to be unstable in the long run. Here's how it fails. The 'Cats, say, recruit, five highly regarded recruits every season. A couple stay around for another year or so, and three or more go to the NBA. That engine works because there is room in the starting lineup and rotation for the new players. That is, if it works like it is supposed to. Here are three ways the Kentucky engine turns into a clunker (throws a rod not a Piston?).

1. Only one freshman, say, decides to leave for the NBA. Why? They're not good enough, say, since no one -- not even -- Cal can predict with 100 percent accuracy and the others are not projected as NBA picks. Then the five new recruits need to fight for playing time and maybe even for a scholarship. Not good. Parents are unhappy. Players are unhappy. Then the next year there may be no scholarships to give out. Or, at the end of the freshman year, he kicks guys out of the program and forces them to transfer. Not good either. Both situations result in chaos and diminish the attractiveness of Kentucky as a destination.

2. The freshman are real busts in the NBA. This takes a little longer to unwind, but it sure makes selling Kentucky harder.

3. Kentucky never wins anything else. How many times will a freshman-dominated team be likely to advance to the Final Four? The FF has happened once -- last year. It may not happen very often. Who wants to go to a program and lose, when you could go elsewhere and win?

sagegrouse

I don't think 3 is a major concern. Not only do I think UK will be good again if their recruiting continues but these guys always think they'll be the one to turn it around. Haven't we heard that with a lot of guys who don't commit to Duke like McGary it seemed like he wanted to be one to help put Michigan on the map, not be lost in the discussion with Boozer, Brand, Shelden, Mason, etc. Not that we couldn't argue this line of thinking, but it seems prevalent.

As for #2, I guess this is possible but less likely. Again, recruits think they are invincible and it won't happen to them. Not to mention, the chance that the mass of these top 10 players are busts seems less likely.

I'm not sure the UK train will end but I think you'll have more of these years than people think. Cal's room for error with recruits is razor thin while a guy like K can lose Kelly for 2 months and still put out a top 10 team or so.

But as you mention, if a few of these guys stay like Terrence Jones did and get upset for being benched, it could certainly cause a lot of problems. And if he ends up kicking a recruited scholarship player off the team for the scholarship, that could be pretty damning although I believe he already did this but seemed to get a pass since it was a new team. But even if guys aren't great, they'll leave before they become more exposed b/c NBA scouts seem to lag on these things and they can see the writing on the wall that they won't play much next year so it might just correct itself.

I think the biggest threat to UK has to be Calipari and a recruiting scandal. Already happened twice in his career and with so many recruits, that alone increases the likelihood of something happening. Not to mention, he doesn't seem to show a ton of discretion when recruiting.

uh_no
03-03-2013, 04:28 PM
The Kentucky NBA train is likely to be unstable in the long run. Here's how it fails. The 'Cats, say, recruit, five highly regarded recruits every season. A couple stay around for another year or so, and three or more go to the NBA. That engine works because there is room in the starting lineup and rotation for the new players. That is, if it works like it is supposed to. Here are three ways the Kentucky engine turns into a clunker (throws a rod not a Piston?).

1. Only one freshman, say, decides to leave for the NBA. Why? They're not good enough, say, since no one -- not even -- Cal can predict with 100 percent accuracy and the others are not projected as NBA picks. Then the five new recruits need to fight for playing time and maybe even for a scholarship. Not good. Parents are unhappy. Players are unhappy. Then the next year there may be no scholarships to give out. Or, at the end of the freshman year, he kicks guys out of the program and forces them to transfer. Not good either. Both situations result in chaos and diminish the attractiveness of Kentucky as a destination.

2. The freshman are real busts in the NBA. This takes a little longer to unwind, but it sure makes selling Kentucky harder.

3. Kentucky never wins anything else. How many times will a freshman-dominated team be likely to advance to the Final Four? The FF has happened once -- last year. It may not happen very often. Who wants to go to a program and lose, when you could go elsewhere and win?

sagegrouse

they've been to the past 2 final fours. They won last year and lost to uconn the year before. They merely were in the elite 8 the year before that. I don't think UK doing well in the tournament is a large concern right now.