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CDu
02-27-2013, 01:22 PM
Well, we're down to the final 4 games of the ACC schedule for all but 2 teams (neither of whom are threats to get a bye). So I feel it's reasonable to take a look at seeding for the tournament.

#1: Miami (13-1) is a virtual lock for a #1 seed. To lose that #1 spot, they'd need to lose at Duke, lose two more games (they'd have any reasonable tiebreaker over us), and have us win out. Aside from the Duke game, their remaining games are all at home and all against weaker conference opponents who haven't done well on the road this year (GT, VT, Clemson). So I feel comfortable saying that they're going to be the #1 seed.

#2: Duke (11-3) leads by two games. We have by far the toughest schedule the rest of the way, though. @UVa, vs Miami, vs VT, and @UNC. Fortunately, we've built enough of a cushion that we should hang on to the #2 seed. But the game tomorrow is incredibly important. If we beat UVa, that eliminates both UVa and NC State from the #2 seed (as we'd then have the tiebreaker over both of them) and would hold the tiebreaker over UNC. If we win tomorrow and beat VT at home, then we lock up the #2 seed (as we'd then be assured of no worse than the same record as UNC). We'd still control our own destiny even with a loss to UVa, but then we'd almost certainly need to beat either Miami or (probably more importantly) UNC. So we can do ourselves a huge favor by "just" winning in Charlottesville.

#3: Right now, UVa (9-5) is the #3 seed, in a tie with UNC (one game ahead of NC State) but ahead in the tiebreaker by virtue of beating NC State in their only matchup. They have the tough game tomorrow and then a relatively light schedule the rest of the way (@BC, @FSU, Maryland). BC is tough at home and Maryland can be dangerous, but the 'Hoos should win those games. If they do that, they'll likely be the #3 seed. I say likely because UNC could conceivably win out, but that is not likely to occur (more on that in a bit).

#4: Right now, UNC (9-5) is the #4 seed, tied with UVa and one game ahead of NC State. If they win out, they have an outside shot at the #2 seed, but most likely would be the #3 seed (they'd need help from Duke to get to #2). But UNC's schedule is pretty tough. They play at Clemson (could be tough), vs FSU, @Maryland (should be tough), and vs Duke (obviously tough). They could easily go 2-2, which would almost certainly bump them to #5.

#5: Right now, NC State (8-6; ahead of Maryland by 1 game). They have, by far, the easiest remaining schedule of the top half of the conference, as they play no games against teams in the upper tier. They should go 4-0, but could always drop one of their road games @GT and @FSU. If they go 4-0, they'd likely wind up in 4th (unless UVa stumbles in one of their easier games).

#6: Maryland (7-7) is in 6th, 0.5 games up on FSU. They have what should be (for them) a tough schedule: @GT, @Wake, vs UNC, @UVa. They could very easily fall to 7th if one of the lower-tier teams steps up, but I'd lean towards them hanging on to the #6 spot.

#7: FSU (7-8) is in 7th, 1.5 games up on Clemson. They have (for them) a tough schedule as well: @UNC, vs UVa, vs NC State. Fortunately for them, though, they have a sufficient cushion that they'll likely hold off Clemson.

As we are the #2 seed and the #8-12 teams aren't very good, I'm not going to waste my time talking about them. I really was going to stop after Maryland, but FSU is just close enough that I felt it necessary to include them.

If I had my druthers, I'd want UVa to finish 3rd (with us 2nd). That way we'd avoid playing either Miami, UNC, or NC State until the finals if we get there. Winning tomorrow would go a LONG way toward securing that #2 seed.

hurleyfor3
02-27-2013, 01:54 PM
I'm happy with us a 2 and unc on the 4/5 side. I'm not sure they have any kind of answer for Miami, and they might lose to someone else anyway. So would I be happy if we lost to UVa in order to make it harder for unc to be #3? Ugh.

Someone who cares more should fully analyze the uva/unc tiebreaker scenarios. I'm guessing if we beat uva and lose @unc, the tiebreaker almost certainly goes to unc.

CDu
02-27-2013, 02:01 PM
I'm happy with us a 2 and unc on the 4/5 side. I'm not sure they have any kind of answer for Miami, and they might lose to someone else anyway. So would I be happy if we lost to UVa in order to make it harder for unc to be #3? Ugh.

Someone who cares more should fully analyze the uva/unc tiebreaker scenarios. I'm guessing if we beat uva and lose @unc, the tiebreaker almost certainly goes to unc.

Yes, if we beat UVa and UNC beats us (and UVa and UNC end up with the same record), UNC would have the tiebreaker regardless, as they'd have a better record against us (1-1) than would UVa (0-1).

However, if we beat UVa and UNC, UVa would have the tiebreaker by beating State in their only matchup with State (unless Maryland passes State, which is unlikely). That's the scenario I want to see play out: Duke wins out, UVa goes 3-1. Duke gets the 2 seed, UVa gets the 3 seed, UNC and State get to deal with each other and then Miami.

nocilla
02-27-2013, 02:18 PM
I think I would prefer having UNC as the 3 instead of UVA. I agree that having NCSU on Miami's side is good. I don't think UNC will move up to the #3 spot anyway, but I like the matchup better. UVA plays a unique style that can frustrate a team. I think Duke matches up very well with UNC's small lineup because it seems to fit Coach K's style. In our first meeting UNC caught us off guard, but once Coach K adjusted we pulled ahead. Coach K was able to put Thornton in for Hairston/Jefferson and we didn't have to worry about a size disadvantage. Coach K seems to like playing with a small lineup so it just seems to be Duke's advantage when another team plays our style. Of course Ryan Kelly changes things, but I think he would do okay matched up with Bullock or PJ. And he probably won't play big minutes anyway.

I also would enjoy the opportunity of beating UNC 3 times in one season.

Of course my opinion may change based on how our regular season games play out against UVA and UNC. If we beat UVA easily and struggle with UNC, then I will certainly reconsider.

UrinalCake
02-27-2013, 02:41 PM
Thanks Cdu for the awesome breakdown. Is there any conceivable way it could end up as Miami-Duke-UVA-nc state as the 1-4? That's what I want. state has played Miami the closest of anyone (except Wake) and stands the best chance of beating them IMO. That scenario would give us our best chance of winning it all.

I suppose there is the line of reasoning that says we WANT to play the better team because a win would strengthen our resume and therefore our chance at a #1 seed, but Id rather have the easier path and thus greater likelihood of winning.

CDu
02-27-2013, 03:05 PM
Thanks Cdu for the awesome breakdown. Is there any conceivable way it could end up as Miami-Duke-UVA-nc state as the 1-4? That's what I want. state has played Miami the closest of anyone (except Wake) and stands the best chance of beating them IMO. That scenario would give us our best chance of winning it all.

I suppose there is the line of reasoning that says we WANT to play the better team because a win would strengthen our resume and therefore our chance at a #1 seed, but Id rather have the easier path and thus greater likelihood of winning.

Yes, there is certainly a chance of a Miami/Duke/UVa/State ordering. It would happen if the following happens:
- we beat UVa and UNC (or we beat Miami and UNC and lose to UVa)
- State wins out
- UVa wins its remaining games
- UNC loses another game (not necessary if we lose to UVa)

There are other routes to the same outcome (basically involving all three of UVa, State, and UNC losing games), but these two are the least complicated and most likely scenarios.

hurleyfor3
02-27-2013, 03:46 PM
What if we end up tied with uva and/or unc... because we lose to both of them?

If it's a tie with just uva, we lose the head-to-head.

If it's a three-way tie, you form a mini-conference of just those three teams: Uva 2-1, Unc 2-2, us 1-2. Crap.

If it's a tie with just unc it gets more complicated, and probably depends on results of other unplayed games.

So we probably end up fourth. We can do even worse than that, but if we finish 1-3 tournament seeding will be the least of our problems.

CDu
02-27-2013, 03:54 PM
What if we end up tied with uva and/or unc... because we lose to both of them?

If it's a tie with just uva, we lose the head-to-head.

If it's a three-way tie, you form a mini-conference of just those three teams: Uva 2-1, Unc 2-2, us 1-2. Crap.

If it's a tie with just unc it gets more complicated, and probably depends on results of other unplayed games.

So we probably end up fourth. We can do even worse than that, but if we finish 1-3 tournament seeding will be the least of our problems.

If we lose to both UNC and UVa (and those two don't lose any other games), we will be fourth. We'd have the worst combined head-to-head record in that scenario.

If we tie with just UNC, then it comes down to whether or not we win against UVa/Miami. UNC would have the tiebreaker over us if we lose to UVa and Miami (they beat UVa once). If we beat Miami, we have any tiebreaker over UNC. If we beat UVa, we have virtually any tiebreaker over UNC (only if Maryland somehow sneaks ahead of UVa without beating UNC would UNC get the edge).

If we tie with just UVa, then the game tomorrow will be the tiebreaker.

Olympic Fan
02-27-2013, 04:22 PM
Personally, I think the most likely scenario is:

No. 1 Miami (agree that they are almost a lock)

No. 2 Duke (not a lock, but likely)

No. 3 UNC (the way they are playing, I give them the edge over Virginia)

No. 4 Virginia

No. 5 NC State (while they have an easier schedule left, I'm betting they loe one or two on the road)

Between 4-5, it doesn't really matter for Duke ... although obviously it means a lot for the one that gets fourth (and the bye), rather than the one that gets fifth and probably has to open against Virginia Tech in the tournament on Thursday.

No. 6 Maryland

No. 7 FSU


Under that scenario, Duke will probably open Friday against Maryland ... I would LOVE another shot at those guys on a neutral court and with us having the edge in rest.

As for the prospect of either Virginia-UNC-NC State in the semifinals ... I'd prefer seeing Virginia -- check their record -- they have been signifricasntly better at home than away from C'ville. If UNC happens to beat Duke in the finale, I wouldn't mind meeting the Heels in the semifinals -- it almost always seems like wheneber we split with them and they win the finale at home, we could back and beat them in the tournament (it happened in 1980, 1984, 2003, 2011) ...

jimsumner
02-27-2013, 04:35 PM
As for the prospect of either Virginia-UNC-NC State in the semifinals ... I'd prefer seeing Virginia -- check their record -- they have been signifricasntly better at home than away from C'ville. If UNC happens to beat Duke in the finale, I wouldn't mind meeting the Heels in the semifinals -- it almost always seems like wheneber we split with them and they win the finale at home, we could back and beat them in the tournament (it happened in 1980, 1984, 2003, 2011) ...

Duke did not split with UNC in either 1980 or 1984. UNC won both regular-season games in both of those seasons. Duke beat UNC in the 1979-80 Big Four. But that's a different kettle of fish.

CDu
02-28-2013, 09:20 AM
Maryland just did State (and to a lesser degree UNC and UVa) a favor by losing to Georgia Tech. They are now 2 games behind State and 3 losses behind UVa and UNC, virtually eliminating them from the top 5. In fact, they're now in 7th because they lost both games to FSU. With 3 tough games remaining (@Wake, vs UNC, and @UVa), they could very possibly stay in 7th (it'll be tough for Clemson to overtake them with games vs UNC and @Miami).

State won at home against BC, virtually locking up a top-5 spot. I won't be at all surprised if they wind up 4th in the conference.

UrinalCake
02-28-2013, 10:22 AM
Here's a sort-of-relevant question: how much does the Selection committee consider the "revenge" factor when determining seeds? If we lose to a team but then come back and beat them later, do they put less weight on the loss? If so, then we definitely want to play (and of course beat) Maryland and NC State during the ACCT. we already get another shot at Miami this weekend.

Ryan coming back and us beating these opponents would go even further towards convincing them that our earlier losses can be safely disregarded 8-)

Olympic Fan
02-28-2013, 11:02 AM
Here's a sort-of-relevant question: how much does the Selection committee consider the "revenge" factor when determining seeds? If we lose to a team but then come back and beat them later, do they put less weight on the loss? If so, then we definitely want to play (and of course beat) Maryland and NC State during the ACCT. we already get another shot at Miami this weekend.

Ryan coming back and us beating these opponents would go even further towards convincing them that our earlier losses can be safely disregarded 8-)

Well, the members of the committee are human and they can be influenced by a number of things, but there is no "revenge" criteria for the committee to consider.

However, there IS a criteria regarding injuries. A team is supposed to be rated according to its level entering the tournament. Lose a great player on the eve of the tournament and the committee is supposed to downgrade you. Get a great player back just before the tournament and the committee is suppoosed to downgrade to some degree the losses suffered when he was out.

But for that to happen, the injured player has to demonstrate thast he's back to full speed ... Kelly will have 1-2 regular season games and 1-3 ACC Tournament games to convince the committee that he's back ... and that Duke is once again the team that went 15-0 against the nation's toughest schedule.

UrinalCake
02-28-2013, 02:09 PM
That's what I want - beat Miami, Kelly comes back healthy, we avenge all our losses and show the committee (and all our opponents) that Duke is back at full strength and ready to roll some heads!

Also I know we have very little chance of a #1 seed in the ACCT but it's not out of the realm if possibility that we could still share the mythical regular season championship. We'd have to win out and get an unexpected loss from Miami, but it would be pretty impressive for this team to do that given the Kelly injury.

CDu
03-01-2013, 08:23 AM
So much for eliminating UVa and State from the race for the #2 seed last night. Now we have to win out to guarantee the #2 seed (because UVa has the tiebreaker over us).

One silver lining? Losing this game makes it very difficult for UNC to get the #2 or #3 seed. The Heels have a much tougher schedule the rest of the way than UVa, and UVa now definitely has the tiebreaker over UNC (by sweeping us and State).

But we probably need to win out to stay the #2 seed. And we'll probably need to beat UNC to stay in the top 3.

gumbomoop
03-01-2013, 02:35 PM
But we probably need to win out to stay the #2 seed. And we'll probably need to beat UNC to stay in the top 3.

Ominous warnings, these.

Although of course Duke's goal has been to win the ACC regular season, that has been for at least 2 weeks a very big uphill climb. For example, even had Duke won last eve and wins Sat, Duke still would need both to win at CH and have Miami lose at home to either GT or Clemson.

So the real issue for a couple of weeks now has been - given Duke's tough end-of-ACC-schedule - whether Duke could win at UVa or UNC, and keep #2. Duke could still lose in CH but "back in" to #2:


Duke - beats Miami and VT, loses to UNC - 13-5
UNC beats FSU and Duke in CH, but loses at Md - 12-6
UVa loses at either BC or FSU - 12-6
NCSt can finish no better than 12-6

CDu's "probably's" are not quite the same as "probables." Wouldn't be so good to fall to #4 and in the bracket with NCSt and Miami. Assuming Duke beats VT, is it even possible Duke slides to #5?

Devils might still be in driver's seat for #2, but best to fasten seat belts for a bumpy finish.

CDu
03-01-2013, 03:16 PM
CDu's "probably's" are not quite the same as "probables." Wouldn't be so good to fall to #4 and in the bracket with NCSt and Miami. Assuming Duke beats VT, is it even possible Duke slides to #5?

Devils might still be in driver's seat for #2, but best to fasten seat belts for a bumpy finish.

We would win the tiebreaker with NC State by virtue of our split with Maryland. Maybe there's a multi-team tiebreaker that could work against us, but that's pretty unlikely I think. So we'd basically have to lose out to end up 5th.

If we beat UNC, we would finish no worse than 3rd. That's true even if we lose both of the games against Miami and at VT. It's always a good goal to beat UNC, but at this point in the season that's especially true. And honestly, the difference between the #2 seed and the #3 seed in the ACC tournament probably isn't substantive. The difference between a #3 and a #4 is.

Olympic Fan
03-01-2013, 04:00 PM
Frankly, there's little difference between 2 and 3 ...

Big difference after that.

The No. 4 seed puts you in the bracket with Miami, plus you have to play either UNC, Virginia or NC State in the quarterfinals on Friday ... then one of the others in the semifinals. THAT is a tough road.

The 5 seed is worse. It means a Thursday game with Virginia Tech (probably), a Friday game with one of UNC, UVa, N.C.State, then a Saturday game with Miami. By Sunday, if we get that far, Seth Curry's fragile leg would be hanging by a thread.

This team needs to lock up a 2 or 3 seed. I think winning the last two home games would do it -- I know there are probably mathematical permilations that could land us in 4th or 5th at 13-5, but I very doubt that happens in the real world. Now 12-6 (assuming only a home win over VPI) certainly opens that door.

CDu
03-01-2013, 04:21 PM
This team needs to lock up a 2 or 3 seed. I think winning the last two home games would do it -- I know there are probably mathematical permilations that could land us in 4th or 5th at 13-5, but I very doubt that happens in the real world. Now 12-6 (assuming only a home win over VPI) certainly opens that door.

Actually, this is not quite right. If we beat Miami and VT and lose to UNC, we'll be 13-5. If UNC and UVa win out, they'll be 13-5. In a 3-way tie with UNC and UVa, we finish 3rd. So in that scenario, we'd be 4th. We cannot end up 5th with only 5 losses (State has 6 losses already in 5th).

The only sure-fire guarantee of finishing in the top 3 is to beat UNC (see below). If we do that, we're assured of at least the #3 seed, even if we lose to both Miami and VT at home. I don't think there's much chance we will lose to both Miami and VT, but the point is that those games are made meaningless by "simply" beating UNC.

Possible scenarios if we lose to Miami and VT but beat UNC:
- 2-way tie for 3rd with UNC: We'd have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- 3-way tie for 2nd with UNC and UVa: we'd have the tiebreaker over UNC by going 2-1 head-to-head.
- 4-way tie for 2nd with UNC, UVa, and State: we'd have the tiebreaker over both UNC and State on head-to-head (we'd be 3-2, State 2-3, UNC 2-4, UVa 3-1).

Now, we could still finish 2 or 3 with a loss to UNC, but that requires UNC or UVa losing again. Better to just go ahead and beat UNC.

cptnflash
03-01-2013, 06:28 PM
This is where the Terps become our friends. Their last two regular season games are at home against UNC, and on the road at Virginia. Assuming they don't lose tomorrow at Wake Forest (a dubious assumption, but let's go with it for now), the Terps will still have a sliver of a glimpse of a chance of a hope for an at-large bid going into the final week of the regular season. They should be desperate, and hopefully will play like it against the Tar Heels and the Hoos. Maybe they can give us a bit of breathing room. Of course we can make it all moot by winning our next 3 games, but with that being less than a 50% probability, I wouldn't mind a little help.

Olympic Fan
03-02-2013, 12:19 AM
Actually, this is not quite right. If we beat Miami and VT and lose to UNC, we'll be 13-5. If UNC and UVa win out, they'll be 13-5. In a 3-way tie with UNC and UVa, we finish 3rd. So in that scenario, we'd be 4th. We cannot end up 5th with only 5 losses (State has 6 losses already in 5th).

The only sure-fire guarantee of finishing in the top 3 is to beat UNC (see below). If we do that, we're assured of at least the #3 seed, even if we lose to both Miami and VT at home. I don't think there's much chance we will lose to both Miami and VT, but the point is that those games are made meaningless by "simply" beating UNC.

Possible scenarios if we lose to Miami and VT but beat UNC:
- 2-way tie for 3rd with UNC: We'd have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- 3-way tie for 2nd with UNC and UVa: we'd have the tiebreaker over UNC by going 2-1 head-to-head.
- 4-way tie for 2nd with UNC, UVa, and State: we'd have the tiebreaker over both UNC and State on head-to-head (we'd be 3-2, State 2-3, UNC 2-4, UVa 3-1).

Now, we could still finish 2 or 3 with a loss to UNC, but that requires UNC or UVa losing again. Better to just go ahead and beat UNC.

I don't mean to be insulting, but could you read my post again. I pointed out that 13-5 might not be a mathematical lock for 2nd/3rd, but my post made it clear that I believe that it is a realistic lock.

I don't know why everybody always assumes that our foes are going to be invincible. Virginia has two more road games -- as good as they have been at home, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road (2-5 in the ACC). I know one of the games is at BC, but BC has won three of their last four ACC home games ... and the other was the one-point loss to Duke. Earlier, they had a one-point loss to Miami at home. Maryland followed up their court-rushing victory over Duke by traveling to BC and losing. NC State followed their court-rushing victory over Duke by traveling to Maryland and losing.

Virginia's other road game is at FSU, which has also played significantly better at home that on the road. I know their two most recent victims were BC and Wake, but they also took Miami to the wire in Tallahassee.

Interesting point -- both BC (3-4) and FSU (4-3) have better ACC records at home that Virginia (2-5) does on the road!

The point is, I think thre is a good chance Virginia loses one of those two games.

Now, I think North Carolina kills FSU this weekend in Chapel Hill. But they have to go to Maryland mid-week ... and we all know how tough the Terps can be at home. There are also a huge team (the biggest in the ACC) that could put UNC's new small lineup to the test. Maryland has a better home record (6-2) than UNC's road record (4-4).

Again, it's a tossup game ... but for 13-5 to land Duke in fourth place Virginia has to win out and UNC has to win out.

That's possible ... but it's a MUCH more likely scenario that between them, they lose one of those three road games.

Now, 13-5 is no lock for Duke -- I will assume a homecourt win over VPI, but the Miami game will be tough. Obviously, 14-4 would be best of all.

But I'm willing to bet that when the final pairings are set a week from Sunday, that a 13-5 finish (whether it includes a win over UNC in Chapel Hill, will be no worse than a No. 3 seed.

CDu
03-02-2013, 08:32 AM
I don't mean to be insulting, but could you read my post again. I pointed out that 13-5 might not be a mathematical lock for 2nd/3rd, but my post made it clear that I believe that it is a realistic lock.

Oh I understood your post fine. Now, I don't mean to be insulting, but you appear to have missed the point of my post. Whereas you said beating Miami and VT would make us a realistic lock, you admittedly left the door open. My point was that simply beating UNC (regardless of what we do against Miami and VT) would make it a mathematical lock.


I don't know why everybody always assumes that our foes are going to be invincible.

I made no assumptions about the invincibility of UVa and UNC. I simply pointed out that beating UNC locks up at least 3rd in the ACC. As fans, why look at it from a perspective that leaves the door open for 4th when winning the UNC game locks up 3rd or better?


But I'm willing to bet that when the final pairings are set a week from Sunday, that a 13-5 finish (whether it includes a win over UNC in Chapel Hill, will be no worse than a No. 3 seed.

The odds are probably in your favor on such a bet, yes. And I'd probably make the same bet. But a win over UNC would guarantee no worse than a #3 (13-5 or not).

gumbomoop
03-02-2013, 01:06 PM
This is where the Terps become our friends. Their last two regular season games are at home against UNC, and on the road at Virginia. Assuming they don't lose tomorrow at Wake Forest (a dubious assumption, but let's go with it for now), the Terps will still have a sliver of a glimpse of a chance of a hope for an at-large bid going into the final week of the regular season. They should be desperate, and hopefully will play like it against the Tar Heels and the Hoos. Maybe they can give us a bit of breathing room. Of course we can make it all moot by winning our next 3 games, but with that being less than a 50% probability, I wouldn't mind a little help.

Terps just won at Wake. Puts them at 20 wins and 8-8 in ACC. Lunardi has them in "next four out," so they're on outer ring of bubble. This means they're hopeful and desperate, wanting to end at 22 wins and 10-8 in ACC, with 6-seed. To get there, they need to beat UNC at home, then at UVa next weekend. Terps could still be our friends.

ETA: Terps get extra day of rest/prep for Heels. Duke also gets extra day of rest/prep for Heels. 9F.

pfrduke
03-03-2013, 03:45 PM
Copying this from the Miami post-game thread.

Here are the seeding scenarios for Duke as against UNC and UVA (note, all of these assume that UVA beats BC today, which is not a foregone conclusion).

Duke beats VT, UNC (14-4)

Duke gets 2-seed, regardless of other results


Duke beats VT, loses to UNC (13-5)

Duke gets 2-seed if:

Virginia loses at least one game (12-6 or 11-7, we win 13-5 tiebreak with UNC)


Duke gets 3-seed if:

Virginia wins out (13-5, wins a two-way tiebreak with us) and
UNC loses at Maryland (12-6)


Duke gets 4-seed if:

Virginia and UNC win out (13-5; we are 3rd in a 3-way tiebreak)



Duke loses to VT, beats UNC (13-5)

Duke gets 2-seed if:

Virginia loses at least one game (12-6 or 11-7; UNC would be 12-6 or 11-7)


Duke gets 3-seed if:

Virginia wins out (13-5 - wins tiebreak)


Duke cannot be 4-seed (UNC would have 6 losses)


Duke loses out (12-6)

Duke gets 2-seed if:

Virginia loses out (11-7) and
UNC loses at Maryland (12-6 - we win tiebreak)


Duke gets 3-seed if:

Virginia wins out (13-5) and
UNC loses at Maryland (12-6 - we win tiebreak)


Duke gets 4-seed if:

Virginia and UNC win out (both 13-5) or
Virginia wins only 1 game and UNC loses at Maryland (both 12-6, we are 3rd in a three-way tiebreak)

Olympic Fan
03-03-2013, 05:00 PM
BC just beat Virginia ... amazing finish.

Thar makes it simple. If Duke beats VPI Tuesday, Duke clinches the No. 2 seed (no matter what happens in Chapel Hill ... Duke has the two-team tiebreaker vs. UNC).

uh_no
03-03-2013, 05:00 PM
speak of the devil:

UVA just choked hard at BC....adding to UVA's road woes

they gave up a 3 with 8 seconds left while up 2....and fouled the kid...who missed the FT....they then dribbled it OOB with .4 left....BC heaves an inbounds across court, the UVA catches and swishes the halfcourter.....but shot it too late.....

tbyers11
03-03-2013, 05:00 PM
Well UVa just made it easier for Duke to get the 2 seed and almost certainly imploded their NCAA chances by losing at BC. Blew several leads in the second half.

Duke "hangover"?

uh_no
03-03-2013, 05:03 PM
Well UVa just made it easier for Duke to get the 2 seed and almost certainly imploded their NCAA chances by losing at BC. Blew several leads in the second half.

Duke "hangover"?

win on tuesday clinches the 2 seed.

OldPhiKap
03-03-2013, 05:04 PM
Duke "hangover"?

Would that make Ryan a wolf pack of one?

pfrduke
03-03-2013, 05:06 PM
win on tuesday clinches the 2 seed.

Yep. All that work upthread for naught... ;)

ynotme32
03-03-2013, 05:06 PM
So the ACC rule is you beat Duke, storm the floor, lose next game. Okay, so Miami didn't lose after they stormed the floor, but still NCSU, MD, and UVA now.....WOW!

gofurman
03-03-2013, 05:08 PM
so just help me remember -

now that UVA has lost its just for knowledge but is this how the first few options go for the ACC tourney?

1) Conference record of each team

2) In the case of a conference record tie: head-to-head record among those two teams (lets keep it at two teams for simplicity)

3) If those two teams split head-to-head against each other.. (the two teams with the same conference record) then does it go to their record against the best team in the conference (Miami) and on down through to the last team in the conference?

Thanks for help remembering how this works.!

pfrduke
03-03-2013, 05:09 PM
so just help me remember -

now that UVA has lost its just for knowledge but is this how the first few options go for the ACC tourney?

1) Conference record of each team

2) In the case of a conference record tie: head-to-head record among those two teams (lets keep it at two teams for simplicity)

3) If those two teams split head-to-head against each other.. (the two teams with the same conference record) then does it go to their record against the best team in the conference (Miami) and on down through to the last team in the conference?

Thanks for help remembering how this works.!

Yes. On #2, in multi-way ties, its total record against the teams you're tied with.

uh_no
03-03-2013, 05:13 PM
Yes. On #2, in multi-way ties, its total record against the teams you're tied with.

further clarifying, with multi-way ties, I believe as soon as you're down to two teams left, you then start over at the top of the 2-team tiebreaker rules with the two teams....so even if three teams tied in record among each other, as soon as the the "third place" team of the three is determined, you can go back to head-head for the two teams that are left

hurleyfor3
03-03-2013, 05:14 PM
Yes. On #2, in multi-way ties, its total record against the teams you're tied with.

I mentioned this upthread, but if we three-way with both virginia and unc, the order will be uva, unc, us. The only way now for this to happen is for us to lose out, uva to win out and unc to lose at maryland and beat us.

dukelifer
03-03-2013, 05:14 PM
BC just beat Virginia ... amazing finish.

Thar makes it simple. If Duke beats VPI Tuesday, Duke clinches the No. 2 seed (no matter what happens in Chapel Hill ... Duke has the two-team tiebreaker vs. UNC).

At least that pressure will be off of the UNC game- now they can play with nothing to lose.

uh_no
03-03-2013, 05:16 PM
At least that pressure will be off of the UNC game- now they can play with nothing to lose.

i would imagine at least some of the players would trade a 2 seed in the ACC tournament for a 3 seed and a win at carolina....pretty sure I would....

so yeah, I think there is still plenty of pressure @UNC....don't forget there is another tournament after ACCs for which the game in hell might have seeding implications

ynotme32
03-03-2013, 05:19 PM
If UNC and UVA finished tied for 3rd who would get the 3 seed. I had much rather see UVA in our 2/3 bracket then UNC.

uh_no
03-03-2013, 05:20 PM
If UNC and UVA finished tied for 3rd who would get the 3 seed. I had much rather see UVA in our 2/3 bracket then UNC.

uva due to their win over duke

hurleyfor3
03-03-2013, 05:23 PM
Even if we lock in the 2 seed, I'd rather have unc in the 4/5 game so they can deal with Miami on Saturday instead of playing us.

It is still possible to have a FOUR-way tie at 12-6 if ncsu wins out (they're playing GIT right now). Then the head-to-head becomes

uva 3-1
unc 3-3
duke 2-3
ncsu 2-3

Pretty certain we then win the tiebreaker over ncsu due to record vs. Miami (us 1-1; ncsu 0-1). So a four-way would have the same outcome as a three-way.

dukelifer
03-03-2013, 05:24 PM
i would imagine at least some of the players would trade a 2 seed in the ACC tournament for a 3 seed and a win at carolina....pretty sure I would....

so yeah, I think there is still plenty of pressure @UNC....don't forget there is another tournament after ACCs for which the game in hell might have seeding implications

A bad ACC tourney will probably have bigger implications. A win by UNC will help them a ton as they are playing well of late but they have not beaten a top team other than State- They will need to beat Duke to improve their seeding. So UNC will have more pressure to win, in my opinion.

Indoor66
03-03-2013, 05:25 PM
Yep. All that work upthread for naught... ;)

Proving again the virtue of patience. :cool:

TruBlu
03-03-2013, 05:56 PM
Proving again the virtue of patience. :cool:

Proving again the virtue of procrastination. Put something off long enough, it eventually becomes irrelevant.

gofurman
03-03-2013, 06:54 PM
Proving again the virtue of procrastination. Put something off long enough, it eventually becomes irrelevant.

procrastination? nah, remember "good things come to those who wait" !

uh_no
03-03-2013, 07:31 PM
procrastination? nah, remember "good things come to those who wait" !

if you wait until the last minute, it only takes a minute

mike88
03-03-2013, 07:35 PM
Here 's what I would like to see in Greensboro:

Friday Duke (2) defeats MD (7)
Sat Duke (2) defeats UVA (3)
Sun Duke (2) defeats NCSU (5)

Let's get it started with a good effort Tuesday vs VT- lots of emotions for Ryan, mason and Seth's Senior Night

BlueDevilBrowns
03-06-2013, 10:20 PM
So to review, now that UNC has won tonight and Miami has unbelievably lost, am I correct in assuming that we are locked into the #2 seed in the ACCT regardless of Saturday's games?

ChrisP
03-06-2013, 10:29 PM
So to review, now that UNC has won tonight and Miami has unbelievably lost, am I correct in assuming that we are locked into the #2 seed in the ACCT regardless of Saturday's games?

I am wondering the same thing. If we win and Miami chokes again, we'd obviously be 1-1 vs. the 'Canes. After that, my head starts to hurt trying to figure out tiebreakers. Probably a moot point - I just can't see Miami losing 3 in a row and 2 in a row at home. But...it IS fun to think about :cool:

Olympic Fan
03-06-2013, 10:34 PM
So to review, now that UNC has won tonight and Miami has unbelievably lost, am I correct in assuming that we are locked into the #2 seed in the ACCT regardless of Saturday's games?

We were locked into the No. 2 seed BEFORE Wednesday night's games. Coach K mentioned that after beating VPI -- that clinched the No. 2 seed.

Duke can still tie Miami for the regular season title, but even in the case of a tie, Miami gets the No. 1 seed (the tiebreaker would be Miami's better record against Virginia and/or NC State) ... UNC can still tie Duke for second place, but even if they do, Duke gets the No. 2 seed (by virtual of the win over Miami).

UNC can still be 3rd or 4th seed. Beat Duke and they are No. 3 ... lose to Duke and it depends on NC State and/or Virginia. Both teams beat UNC in head-to-head tiebreakers. If there is a three-way tiebreaker at 12-6, Virginia gets third, UNC is fourth nd N.C. State is fifth.

Interesting battle for 6th/7th. With their loss tonight, Maryland opens the door for FSU to tie -- but FSU has to beat either Virginia at home Thursday night or NC State at home this weekend. If they do tie, FSU wins the tiebreaker and we play FSU in the quarterfinals (assuming somebody like Wake Forest doesn't upset them in the first round) ... personally, I'd rather get the Terps, not because I think FSU is better, just because I want to hand Maryland another loss on their way out of the league.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-06-2013, 10:38 PM
I am wondering the same thing. If we win and Miami chokes again, we'd obviously be 1-1 vs. the 'Canes. After that, my head starts to hurt trying to figure out tiebreakers. Probably a moot point - I just can't see Miami losing 3 in a row and 2 in a row at home. But...it IS fun to think about :cool:

Now that I think about it, yes, that's correct. If we win and Miami loses, the tiebreaker is better record vs. common opponents according to standings. So Miami and Duke would both be 2-0 against UNC, however, Miami is undefeated against both NCSU and VA while we lost to both. Therefore, they would receive the #1 seed.

Additionally, as mentioned in another thread by another poster, because Duke has a better record against Miami than UNC (2-0 vs. 1-1), even if Duke loses Saturday, they would still be the #2 seed.

This is good because it means I don't have to take a REALLY LONG lunch next Friday.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-06-2013, 10:41 PM
We were locked into the No. 2 seed BEFORE Wednesday night's games. Coach K mentioned that after beating VPI -- that clinched the No. 2 seed.

Duke can still tie Miami for the regular season title, but even in the case of a tie, Miami gets the No. 1 seed (the tiebreaker would be Miami's better record against Virginia and/or NC State) ... UNC can still tie Duke for second place, but even if they do, Duke gets the No. 2 seed (by virtual of the win over Miami).

UNC can still be 2nd or 3rd seed. Beat Duke and they are No. 3 ... lose to Duke and it depends on NC State and/or Virginia. Both teams beat UNC in head-to-head tiebreakers. If there is a three-way tiebreaker at 12-6, Virginia gets third, UNC is fourth nd N.C. State is fifth.

Interesting battle for 6th/7th. With their loss tonight, Maryland opens the door for FSU to tie -- but FSU has to beat either Virginia at home Thursday night or NC State at home this weekend. If they do tie, FSU wins the tiebreaker and we play FSU in the quarterfinals (assuming somebody like Wake Forest doesn't upset them in the first round) ... personally, I'd rather get the Terps, not because I think FSU is better, just because I want to hand Maryland another loss on their way out of the league.

Thanks Olympic, you beat me to it!

-bdbd
03-06-2013, 10:57 PM
We were locked into the No. 2 seed BEFORE Wednesday night's games. Coach K mentioned that after beating VPI -- that clinched the No. 2 seed.

Duke can still tie Miami for the regular season title, but even in the case of a tie, Miami gets the No. 1 seed (the tiebreaker would be Miami's better record against Virginia and/or NC State) ... UNC can still tie Duke for second place, but even if they do, Duke gets the No. 2 seed (by virtual of the win over Miami).

UNC can still be 2nd or 3rd seed. Beat Duke and they are No. 3 ... lose to Duke and it depends on NC State and/or Virginia. Both teams beat UNC in head-to-head tiebreakers. If there is a three-way tiebreaker at 12-6, Virginia gets third, UNC is fourth nd N.C. State is fifth.

Interesting battle for 6th/7th. With their loss tonight, Maryland opens the door for FSU to tie -- but FSU has to beat either Virginia at home Thursday night or NC State at home this weekend. If they do tie, FSU wins the tiebreaker and we play FSU in the quarterfinals (assuming somebody like Wake Forest doesn't upset them in the first round) ... personally, I'd rather get the Terps, not because I think FSU is better, just because I want to hand Maryland another loss on their way out of the league.

Good summary Olympic, as usual... ;)

So, for the ACCT seedings we have a locked-in #1 - MIA, #2 - Duke; and 3, 4, 5 hinging on this weekend's games. UNC is a game ahead of the other two, but has to play Duke, and if they lose, then they lose head-to-head tie-breakers to both UVA and NCSU (and also drop to 4th in a 3-way tie-breaker). Then we have MD and FSU battling for 6th and 7th. Interesting.

But I tend to look at these things in a methodical, relatively unemotional way -- what is in Duke's best interest in terms of winning the ACCT?
Given UNC's apparent relative hotness right now, I'd just as soon NOT have to face them until the finals (and frankly I don't see them likely surviving a matchup with MIA in the semi's (hypothetically), though no guarantees. I see us matching up better, currently, with UVA or NCSU in the semi's. So that gives us extra incentive to win at CH this Sat. - so we probably don't have to see them again exactly a week later in the ACCT semi's.

As for the Fri. ACCT match-up, I don't think it matters much, since neither FSU nor MD are playing especially well right now. But as we saw in College Park, MD does get up for Duke games -- why is it that they get so up for us but can't for BC or UNC or UVA?? -- and we toasted FSU at their place.
So I lean for rooting for the results that get MD into 6th and FSU into 7th.

ice-9
03-06-2013, 11:45 PM
Now that I think about it, yes, that's correct. If we win and Miami loses, the tiebreaker is better record vs. common opponents according to standings. So Miami and Duke would both be 2-0 against UNC, however, Miami is undefeated against both NCSU and VA while we lost to both. Therefore, they would receive the #1 seed.

Additionally, as mentioned in another thread by another poster, because Duke has a better record against Miami than UNC (2-0 vs. 1-1), even if Duke loses Saturday, they would still be the #2 seed.

This is good because it means I don't have to take a REALLY LONG lunch next Friday.

Wouldn't Georgia Tech be a common opponent? And Clemson too if Miami lost?

But I suppose even in that scenario with UNC, NC State, UVA, GT and Clemson as the common opponents...
- Miami would be 6-2
- Duke would be 5-2

Rats.

pfrduke
03-07-2013, 12:02 AM
Wouldn't Georgia Tech be a common opponent? And Clemson too if Miami lost?

But I suppose even in that scenario with UNC, NC State, UVA, GT and Clemson as the common opponents...
- Miami would be 6-2
- Duke would be 5-2

Rats.

It's not record against all common opponents. It just goes down the ladder. Miami has a better record than us against UVA and NC State, so it will win any tiebreaker.

ice-9
03-07-2013, 12:05 AM
It's not record against all common opponents. It just goes down the ladder. Miami has a better record than us against UVA and NC State, so it will win any tiebreaker.

Oh I see, it's common record against next best opponent... Double rats.

Troublemaker
03-07-2013, 12:19 AM
The reason I know Miami is locked into the #1 seed is because I made a preseason bet on Duke to get the 1 seed at +270 (basically, bet $100 to get $370 back), and that bet is no longer listed as pending at my book. That was a sick bet (i.e. good), btw. I'd make that bet over and over again. It was just unfortunate that Ryan got injured and Miami won all their close games for awhile.

FYI, NC State was the favorite at +150 or so. I wish I had put a bet on Miami. Can't recall their odds, but it was probably something like +900. Sick.

Olympic Fan
03-07-2013, 09:58 AM
what is in Duke's best interest in terms of winning the ACCT?
Given UNC's apparent relative hotness right now, I'd just as soon NOT have to face them until the finals (and frankly I don't see them likely surviving a matchup with MIA in the semi's (hypothetically), though no guarantees. I see us matching up better, currently, with UVA or NCSU in the semi's. So that gives us extra incentive to win at CH this Sat. - so we probably don't have to see them again exactly a week later in the ACCT semi's. .

I disagree -- I would not be afraid of UNC in the semifinals. If Duke and UNC met Saturday, that means that the Cheaters won the regular season finale. I've said this before -- go back and look at what happens when UNC beats Duke on the last weekend and the two teams meet in the ACC Tournament -- 1980, 1984, 2003, 2011 ... Duke wins the rematch. Secondly, given Roy's negative approach to the ACC Tournament, that's one setting where Duke will have a nice edge.

And Saturday, Seth Curry's leg will be marginally better than on Sunday. I worry about him making it through three straight games. If we have to struggle Sunday in the tournament, I'd rather it be against Miami or Virginia or even NC State than UNC.

All that said, I'd rather be in the opposite bracket from UNC because that would mean that we beat them Saturday in Chapel Hill.

killerleft
03-07-2013, 11:40 AM
I disagree -- I would not be afraid of UNC in the semifinals. If Duke and UNC met Saturday, that means that the Cheaters won the regular season finale. I've said this before -- go back and look at what happens when UNC beats Duke on the last weekend and the two teams meet in the ACC Tournament -- 1980, 1984, 2003, 2011 ... Duke wins the rematch. Secondly, given Roy's negative approach to the ACC Tournament, that's one setting where Duke will have a nice edge.And Saturday, Seth Curry's leg will be marginally better than on Sunday. I worry about him making it through three straight games. If we have to struggle Sunday in the tournament, I'd rather it be against Miami or Virginia or even NC State than UNC.

All that said, I'd rather be in the opposite bracket from UNC because that would mean that we beat them Saturday in Chapel Hill.

I have a feeling Roy is looking at this ACC Tournament as a possible stepping stone to a better seed in the NCAAs. He's only negative when the ACC Tourney doesn't provide him with a positive. I don't think he's a hypocrite, just a spin doctor. Well, yeah, he's a hypocrite.

MCFinARL
03-07-2013, 11:52 AM
I have a feeling Roy is looking at this ACC Tournament as a possible stepping stone to a better seed in the NCAAs. He's only negative when the ACC Tourney doesn't provide him with a positive. I don't think he's a hypocrite, just a spin doctor. Well, yeah, he's a hypocrite.

Yes. Can't find it now, but somewhere recently I even saw Roy quoted as saying that doing well in the ACC tournament is an important goal for the team--that is not his usual line, but clearly this year winning the ACCT would give them a big boost to make up for some of those earlier losses.

UrinalCake
03-07-2013, 01:50 PM
Roy is also playing a much shorter bench this year than typical, at least in te last three weeks. Will be interesting to see how he manages the ACCT. Coach K is masterful at playing his guys lots of minutes yet still keeping them fresh for Sunday.

gumbomoop
03-07-2013, 04:23 PM
Interesting battle for 6th/7th. With their loss tonight, Maryland opens the door for FSU to tie -- but FSU has to beat either Virginia at home Thursday night or NC State at home this weekend. If they do tie, FSU wins the tiebreaker and we play FSU in the quarterfinals (assuming somebody like Wake Forest doesn't upset them in the first round) ... personally, I'd rather get the Terps, not because I think FSU is better, just because I want to hand Maryland another loss on their way out of the league.

I don't think this bolded part is correct. If Terps and Noles tie, yes, Noles have tiebreaker, but that means they'd get #6 spot. Duke as #2 would get #7 Terps or whoever might beat Terps on Thurs.

pfrduke
03-07-2013, 08:58 PM
Virginia's inability to win on the road and Michael Snaer's unreal streak of late game heroics probably put FSU onto the six line. Maryland needs to win at UVA and FSU needs to lose to State for Maryland to get the 6.

Olympic Fan
03-07-2013, 09:03 PM
Okay, just to clarify -- I was right to say if FSU and Maryland tie, FSU wins the tiebreaker for 6th. But I was wrong to say that would mean Duke plays FSU. Duke as the two seed, gets the winner of 7 vs. 10 on Friday -- so that would be Maryland.

After FSU's victory over Virginia tonight:

(1) Virginia drops out of the race for third place. The best the Cavs can do is tie NC State for fourth -- if UVa beats Maryland at home Sunday and NC State loses at FSU Saturday. If that happens, Virginia wins the tiebreaker and gets 4th ... otherwise, they are fifth.

(2) FSU tied Maryland for sixth -- both at 8-9. Maryland is at Virginia Sunday, while FSU hosts NC State Saturday. Since FSU has the tiebreaker (2-0 head-to-head with the Terps), the only way Maryland can get the sixth seed is if they beat Virginia and FSU loses to State.

(3) Saturday's Georgia Tech at Boston College is for the No. 8 seed. The loser of that game could be tied by Clemson or Wake Forest for ninth. Clemson plays at Miami, while Wake gets a home game with VPI. I don't think Clemson wins at Miami (of course, I didn't think Georgia Tech would win at Miami either). I think Wake will beat VPI in Joel. That means a tiebreaker with the loser of BC/GT. Wake loses the tiebreaker to Georgia Tech (GT was 2-0 vs. the Deacs), but wins the tiebreaker with BC (1-1 head-to-head, but Wake's win over Miami makes the difference).

(4) The race for the 3/4 seeds comes down to UNC and NC State. UNC gets the third seed with a win over Duke or a State loss at FSU. If Duke beats UNC and State wins at FSU, State ties UNC for third, then wins the tiebreaker, dropping UNC to fourth.

-bdbd
03-07-2013, 09:52 PM
Well, that was unfortunate. It is starting to shape up that the PROBABILITY is for seedings as 1-MIA, 2-DU, 3-NC, 4-State, 5-UVA, 6-FSU, 7-MD...
Obviously none of that is locked in other than the top-2. But playing the odds it would look like Duke's path would be: Fri. MD, Sat NC, Sun. MIA. That's three games against teams that could possibly have beaten us. Ugh! I think we just got a little extra motivation for Sat night, as it sure would be nice to pin the #4 seed and a hypothetical Sat date with Miami on the Heels. Also, would prefer to see us vs. FSU on Fri., so this weekend it is 'Go Terps!' (Yeah, I know, my fingers cramped just typing that...)

UVA losing to FSU really dinged their NCAAT hopes. They have some work to do now...
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=330660052


Atlantic Coast Conference StandingsTEAM CONF W-L TOTAL W-L
#7 Miami (FL) 14-3 23-6
#4 Duke 13-4 26-4
North Carolina 12-5 22-8
North Carolina State 11-6 22-8
Virginia 10-7 20-10
Florida State 8-9 16-14
Maryland 8-9 20-10
Georgia Tech 6-11 16-13
Boston College 6-11 14-16
Clemson 5-12 13-16
Wake Forest 5-12 12-17
Virginia Tech 4-13 13-17

pfrduke
03-07-2013, 11:35 PM
With one set of games to play, here's where we sit (I think this covers all scenarios):

1 - Miami, locked
2 - Duke, locked
3 - UNC, if it wins or if NCSU loses; NCSU, if it wins and UNC loses
4 - NCSU, if a) it wins and UNC wins or b) it loses and UVA loses; UNC, if it loses and NCSU wins; Virginia, if it wins and NCSU loses
5 - Virginia, if it loses or if NCSU wins; NCSU, if it loses and UVA wins
6 - FSU, if it wins or if Maryland loses; Maryland, if it wins and FSU loses
7 - Maryland, if it loses or if FSU wins; FSU, if it loses and Maryland wins
8 - winner of Georgia Tech/BC
9 - GT, if it loses and Clemson loses; BC, if it loses and Wake loses; Clemson, if it wins and GT loses; Wake, if it wins and both BC and Clemson lose
10 - GT, if it loses and Clemson wins; BC, if it loses, Wake wins, and Clemson loses; Clemson, if it wins and BC loses; Wake, if it wins and GT and Clemson lose; VT, if it wins and Clemson loses
11 - Clemson, if it loses; Virginia Tech, if it wins and Clemson wins; Wake, if it wins and Clemson wins
12 - loser of Virginia Tech/Wake Forest

With that laid out, I think the closest call will be the 3 seed - knocking firmly on wood for Saturday's game, here's my guess for how it will shake out.

1 - Miami
2 - Duke
3 - NC State
4 - UNC
5 - Virginia
6 - Florida State
7 - Maryland
8 - Boston College
9 - Georgia Tech
10 - Wake Forest
11 - Clemson
12 - Virginia Tech

hurleyfor3
03-09-2013, 03:29 PM
With FSU beating NSU and Miami beating Clemson, the top nine are [mostly] locked in [assuming uva beats maryland on sunday].

1. Miami
2. Duke
3. Unc (0-2 vs. Miami; Duke 1-1)
4. Uva (1-0 vs. NCSU)
5. NCSU
6. FSU (2-0 vs. Maryland)
7. Maryland
8. BC
9. GIT (2-0 vs. Wake)

ACC Tournament Friday would look like:

Miami vs. BC/GIT winner
UVa vs. whomever NCSU lays an egg against

Duke vs. whomever Maryland looks past because Duke is there
Unc vs. FSU or someone else

Bluedog
03-09-2013, 03:33 PM
With FSU beating NSU and Miami beating Clemson, the top nine are now locked in.

1. Miami
2. Duke
3. Unc (0-2 vs. Miami; Duke 1-1)
4. Uva (1-0 vs. NCSU)
5. NCSU
6. FSU (2-0 vs. Maryland)
7. Maryland
8. BC
9. GIT (2-0 vs. Wake)

ACC Tournament Friday would look like:

Miami vs. BC/GIT winner
UVa vs. whomever NCSU lays an egg against

Duke vs. whomever Maryland looks past because Duke is there
Unc vs. FSU or someone else

I believe UVa only gets the 4 seed if they beat Maryland tomorrow. If they lose, they get the 5 seed. Not really how I wanted to see things fall, but sometimes, them's the break. Duke definitely will not have an easy path to an ACC Title. Clemson is also locked in to the 11 seed.

hurleyfor3
03-09-2013, 03:35 PM
I believe UVa only gets the 4 seed if they beat Maryland tomorrow. If they lose, they get the 5 seed. Not really how I wanted to see things fall, but sometimes, them's the break. Duke definitely will not have an easy path to an ACC Title.

You are right. I had UVa and ncsu with the same record. Maryland is #7 regardless.

Olympic Fan
03-09-2013, 03:49 PM
Just to pile on here:

The seeds we know:

1, Miami
2. Duke
3. UNC
4.
5.
6. FSU
7. Maryland
8. Boston College
9,. Georgia Tech
10.
11. Clemson
12.

I also think Virginia beats Maryland Sunday, so that would put Virginia at No. 4 and NC State at No. 4. If Maryland does win, that gives NC State 4th and Virginia 5th -- Maryland is 7 either way.

I think Wake will beat Virginia Tech at home Sunday -- that would put Wake at No. 10, Clemson at No. 11 and VPI at No. 12. If VPI pulls the upset on the road, then VPI, Wake and Clemson are all tied for 10th at 5-13. Virginia Tech would win the 3-way tiebreaker (3-1 vs. the other two) Clemson at No. 11 (2-1 against the other two) and Wake at No. 12 (0-3 against the other two). Either way, Clemson gets No. 11.

Interesting that BC and Georgia Tech will meet again, just five days after their matchup today in BC.

Also, did anybody else see the end of NC State at FSU? What a dog CJ Leslie was ... a technical in the first half gave FSU life. In the final minute, he could have tied it at the line, but missed one of 2 (he was 1-4 FTs for the game), then committed two bad turnovers in the final 40 seconds with the game on the line. He finished with five points.

And THAT's the preseason ACC player of the year.

hurleyfor3
03-09-2013, 03:49 PM
The bottom looks like

10. Wake 5-12
11. Clemson 5-13
12. VPI 4-13

If Wake wins (game is at Wake), those are the final standings. If VPI wins, the mini-conference becomes

10. VPI 3-1
11. Clemson 2-1
12. Wake 0-3

Bluedog
03-09-2013, 03:52 PM
Also, did anybody else see the end of NC State at FSU? What a dog CJ Leslie was ... a technical in the first half gave FSU life. In the final minute, he could have tied it at the line, but missed one of 2 (he was 1-4 FTs for the game), then committed two bad turnovers in the final 40 seconds with the game on the line. He finished with five points.

And THAT's the preseason ACC player of the year.

Yeah..CJ Leslie has to be an extremely frustrating player for NC St fans. He clearly has a lot of talent, but has been so inconsistent this season it's quite remarkable. The NBA scouts watching the game couldn't have been impressed with what they saw.

loran16
03-09-2013, 03:54 PM
I believe UVa only gets the 4 seed if they beat Maryland tomorrow. If they lose, they get the 5 seed. Not really how I wanted to see things fall, but sometimes, them's the break. Duke definitely will not have an easy path to an ACC Title.

Really? Seems like the easiest path.

Pomeroy Ranks:
#6: Duke
#13 Miami
#22 UVA
#26 UNC
#34 NC State
#67 Maryland
#85 GTech


Duke's only top 50 competition before Miami is UNC, and if UNC is upset it won't have any.
By contrast, Miami will have a top 50 opponent as one of State and UVA is almost certain to make it as they're - barring huge upset - goign to play each other second round.

Bluedog
03-09-2013, 04:04 PM
Really? Seems like the easiest path.

Pomeroy Ranks:
#6: Duke
#13 Miami
#22 UVA
#26 UNC
#34 NC State
#67 Maryland
#85 GTech


Duke's only top 50 competition before Miami is UNC, and if UNC is upset it won't have any.
By contrast, Miami will have a top 50 opponent as one of State and UVA is almost certain to make it as they're - barring huge upset - goign to play each other second round.

Obviously, reasonable minds can differ, but based on current play, I think UNC is significantly tougher than NC State and a bit of a tougher matchup than UVa for us. In addition, we saw what Maryland did to us @MD and how we played against FSU. So, yeah, I would have rather had it FSU-State than MD-UNC. While Miami has two top 50 kenpom teams in its half, as you stated, they have to play each other so it's not really relevant that there are two of them - Miami will only have to play one. I realize your point that they are guaranteed to play one while for us UNC could theoretically lose. In any event, I'm not going to lose sleep over it and have to simply beat the teams in front of you and can't take anything for granted, but when the day began, I was hoping to see NC State and FSU in our half for the tourny rather than MD and UNC. Particularly because games against those two cause me more stress, ha! Although I also love beating them more (UNC in particular obviously) than any other team...

Henderson
03-09-2013, 04:23 PM
It's fun to speculate on all the permutations I guess. Like calculating long term weather forecasts. But I think Coach K would say that he's interested in whom Duke plays first and when, then start planning for future opponents as they present themselves. I kinda subscribe to that school of thought. But I understand the fun of digging in early.

Olympic Fan
03-09-2013, 04:43 PM
It's fun to speculate on all the permutations I guess. Like calculating long term weather forecasts. But I think Coach K would say that he's interested in whom Duke plays first and when, then start planning for future opponents as they present themselves. I kinda subscribe to that school of thought. But I understand the fun of digging in early.

Well, Duke plays Friday night at 7 p.m., but won't know its opponent for sure until after Thursday night's 7 p.m. game. That one will match Maryland against either Wake Forest or VPI, depending on which wins Sunday's 2 p.m. game in Winston-Salem. If Wake wins Sunday, Duke will meet the Maryland-Wake winner. If VPI wins Sunday, Duke will meet the Maryland-VPI winner.

That's all we can know at the moment. As you say, the rest is speculatuion.

-bdbd
03-10-2013, 06:16 AM
Really? Seems like the easiest path.

Pomeroy Ranks:
#6: Duke
#13 Miami
#22 UVA
#26 UNC
#34 NC State
#67 Maryland
#85 GTech


Duke's only top 50 competition before Miami is UNC, and if UNC is upset it won't have any.
By contrast, Miami will have a top 50 opponent as one of State and UVA is almost certain to make it as they're - barring huge upset - goign to play each other second round.

Well, Lunardi has UVA currently among his "last 4 out" in the NCAAT. So they may well even miss the dance entirely.

Personally, I think UNC has been playing much better and more consistent in recent weeks. Both State and UVA have lost more than once in the last two weeks. It is also a rivaly opponent in the NC team, with all that extra emotion, and they will have the most fans of any opponent in Greensboro. So I'd be less worried about UVA and NCSU, both of whom are down at the moment. A moot discussion since our path, according to the seeds, should now be MD, UNC and then Miami. Of course the seeds rarely all hold up. But I think the 4-seed faces a much tougher game than the 3-seed on Fri. as well - probably playing the 5-seed (either State or UVA). Just wishing that for UNC... but instead they apparently get FSU. Oh well.

DUKIE V(A)
03-10-2013, 07:06 AM
I hope Maryland finds a way to win the 7/10 game. Would love for our Devils to punch their ticket to the NIT.

ChrisP
03-10-2013, 07:25 AM
I hope Maryland finds a way to win the 7/10 game. Would love for our Devils to punch their ticket to the NIT.

Me too. I really want some payback for that last game. Not scared of the twerps at all with RK back in the lineup, either. Bring. It. On!!!

-bdbd
03-10-2013, 05:56 PM
If anyone is interested, Virginia is palying right now, Sun. afternoon, to earn the #4 ACCT seed. If they beat MD, then they are the #4 seed, and have a Thursday bye. If they lose, then they are #5, and must play Va Tech Thursday, to get to then play #4 NCSU on Fri. The Terps are up 32-19 in Charlottesville at half.

Anyone seen the schedule as to which games are when Th/Fri?

Possible Results
http://www.accseeds.info/2013/ACC.html
Maryland at Virginia Seed #1 Seed #2 Seed #3 Seed #4 Seed #5 Seed #6 Seed #7 Seed #8 Seed #9 Seed #10 Seed #11 Seed #12
Maryland Miami (15-3) Duke (14-4) North Carolina (12-6) NC State (11-7) Virginia (10-8) Florida State (9-9) Maryland (9-9) Boston College (7-11) Georgia Tech (6-12) Wake Forest (6-12) Clemson (5-13) Virginia Tech (4-14)
Virginia Miami (15-3) Duke (14-4) North Carolina (12-6) Virginia (11-7) NC State (11-7) Florida State (9-9) Maryland (8-10) Boston College (7-11) Georgia Tech (6-12) Wake Forest (6-12) Clemson (5-13) Virginia Tech (4-14)

Greg_Newton
03-10-2013, 05:58 PM
UVA has been so horrible. Amazing how bad they've been since the Duke game - I'd be surprised if they make the tournament at this rate.

pfrduke
03-10-2013, 05:59 PM
If anyone is interested, Virginia is palying right now, Sun. afternoon, to earn the #4 ACCT seed. If they beat MD, then they are the #4 seed, and have a Thursday bye. If they lose, then they are #5, and must play Va Tech Thursday, to get to then play #4 NCSU on Fri. The Terps are up 32-19 in Charlottesville at half.

Anyone seen the schedule as to which games are when Th/Fri?

Possible Results
http://www.accseeds.info/2013/ACC.html
Maryland at Virginia Seed #1 Seed #2 Seed #3 Seed #4 Seed #5 Seed #6 Seed #7 Seed #8 Seed #9 Seed #10 Seed #11 Seed #12
Maryland Miami (15-3) Duke (14-4) North Carolina (12-6) NC State (11-7) Virginia (10-8) Florida State (9-9) Maryland (9-9) Boston College (7-11) Georgia Tech (6-12) Wake Forest (6-12) Clemson (5-13) Virginia Tech (4-14)
Virginia Miami (15-3) Duke (14-4) North Carolina (12-6) Virginia (11-7) NC State (11-7) Florida State (9-9) Maryland (8-10) Boston College (7-11) Georgia Tech (6-12) Wake Forest (6-12) Clemson (5-13) Virginia Tech (4-14)

The Friday schedule is usually in the following order:

1 vs. 8/9
4 vs. 5/12
2 vs. 7/10
3 vs. 6/11

Thursday's games usually go in the same order

8 vs. 9
5 vs. 12
7 vs. 10
6 vs. 11

-bdbd
03-10-2013, 06:03 PM
The Friday schedule is usually in the following order:

1 vs. 8/9
4 vs. 5/12
2 vs. 7/10
3 vs. 6/11

Thursday's games usually go in the same order

8 vs. 9
5 vs. 12
7 vs. 10
6 vs. 11

Here is the official schedule:
http://www.theacc.com/championships/acc-mens-basketball-tournament.html

Duke plays Fri at 7pm, followed by the #3-seed game (Kerlina). The Fri #1 seed game (Miam) is at noon, and the #4 seed game (NCSU-vs-UVA?) is around 2pm Fri. Then the Sat games are at 1PM and 3PM (Duke hypothetically would be the latter gametime), then the ACCT Championship is Sun at 1pm.

hurleyfor3
03-10-2013, 06:07 PM
Anyone seen the schedule as to which games are when Th/Fri?

It's always

Noon Thursday: 8/9 game, followed by 12/5 game
7pm Thursday: 7/10 game, followed by 11/6 game

Noon Friday: #1 game, followed by #4 game
7pm Friday: #2 game, followed by #3 game

Saturday tips at 1.30pm. Sunday tips at 1.

-jk
03-10-2013, 06:07 PM
Here is the official schedule:
http://www.theacc.com/championships/acc-mens-basketball-tournament.html

Duke plays Fri at 7pm, followed by the #3-seed game (Kerlina). The Fri #1 seed game (Miam) is at noon, and the #4 seed game (NCSU-vs-UVA?) is around 2pm Fri. Then the Sat games are at 1PM and 3PM (Duke hypothetically would be the latter gametime), then the ACCT Championship is Sun at 1pm.

We all know the second games' start times are fiction. Noon and 2:30, and 7:00 and 9:30 are far more likely.

-jk

FanFair
03-10-2013, 06:39 PM
It's always

Noon Thursday: 8/9 game, followed by 12/5 game
7pm Thursday: 7/10 game, followed by 11/6 game

Noon Friday: #1 game, followed by #4 game
7pm Friday: #2 game, followed by #3 game

Saturday tips at 1.30pm. Sunday tips at 1.


Thia has always traditionally been the start times, but next Saturday's games are to begin at 1 pm according the the ACC website. It has always started at 1:30 in the past, but I suppose TV dictates differntly now. My tickets list no start times. I'm planning on being there for a 1 pm tip on Saturday (semis).

hurleyfor3
03-10-2013, 06:54 PM
Thia has always traditionally been the start times, but next Saturday's games are to begin at 1 pm according the the ACC website.

Wow, shocking news!

Not knowing what espn is otherwise up to, I think the first game on Saturday would now be MORE likely to overlap with whatever minor-conference championship game espn is scheduling for Saturday morning. Or maybe the second game was running up too closely against the Big East final, who konws.

-jk
03-10-2013, 07:21 PM
Espn is showing we play at 9(really 9:30) on Friday. Wtf?

-jk

Olympic Fan
03-10-2013, 07:25 PM
FWIW, Duke definitely plays 7 p.m. Friday.

And Virginia just edged Maryland in OT (after being down 17 at one point) to clinch the No. 4 seed. If I were them, I'd be mighty determined to get to the semifinals -- it's probably going to take a victory over NC State on Friday to get them safely in the field.

gofurman
03-10-2013, 07:45 PM
Is this right ?

Thursday

8/9 - BC vs GT
7/10 - Maryland vs. WFU or VT
6/11 - FSU vs Clemson
5/12 - NCSU vs WFU or VT

then Friday
1) Miami plays the winner of the 8/9 game (BC vs GT)
2) Duke plays winner of the 7/10 game (MD vs WFU) ?
3) UNC plays winner of the 6/11 game (FSU vs Clemson)
4) UVA plays winner of the 5/12 game (NC ST vs VT) ?

is this right???

or is that wrong somewhere.

thanks!

hurleyfor3
03-10-2013, 07:49 PM
Final bracket is up on the conference's website.

http://www.theacc.com/championships/acc-mens-basketball-tournament.html

We've got two threads about the tournament now, and this is the more speculative one. Speculation is over, so...