This Week in the (non-ACC) Top 25

[Bob Green]

This Week in the (non-ACC) Top 25

Please discuss ACC games in the ACC thread.

This coming week offers plenty of Top 25 versus Top 25 action, plus multiple games with Top 25 teams facing quality unranked opponents. Selection Sunday is creeping closer and the landscape is ripe for upsets:

Monday

#25 Notre Dame at #20 Pittsburgh – with both teams coming off a weekend defeat this game is all about responding.

Tuesday

#1 Indiana at #4 Michigan State
#5 Florida at Missouri (18-7)
#24 VCU at Saint Louis (19-5)

Wednesday

#9 Kansas at #14 Oklahoma St
Santa Clara (19-8) at #3 Gonzaga – possibly the Zags last tough regular season game
Providence (14-11) at #8 Syracuse
Washington (14-12) at #12 Arizona
Minnesota (18-8) at #18 Ohio State
#22 Colorado St at UNLV (19-7) – you can be sure Tar Heel fans’ are rooting for the Runnin’ Rebels

Thursday

California (16-9) at #23 Oregon

Friday

Saint Louis (19-5) at #15 Butler – the Billikens face their second straight Top 25 opponent.

Saturday

#11 Georgetown at #8 Syracuse
#16 New Mexico at #22 Colorado St
Arkansas (16-9) At #5 Florida
Stanford (15-11) at #23 Oregon
#24 VCU at Xavier (14-10)


Sunday

#4 Michigan State at #18 Ohio State
#20 Pittsburgh at St John’s (15-10)
Cincinnati (19-7) at #25 Notre Dame

[dukelifer]

Pittsburgh and Notre Dame doing their best to set college ball back 90 years- not ACC yet

[sporthenry]

Pittsburgh and Notre Dame doing their best to set college ball back 90 years- not ACC yet

To be fair, Pitt has 19 points through 15 minutes and is shooting a respectable 38%. It is mostly ND with 9 points 14.3% (3-21 from FG) who has made more 3 point field goals than 2 point field goals and has 7 turnovers.

[juise]

Pittsburgh and Notre Dame doing their best to set college ball back 90 years- not ACC yet

Irish got hot and only trailed by a field goal - 22-19 - at half. Yuck.

[FerryFor50]

Irish got hot and only trailed by a field goal - 22-19 - at half. Yuck.

Don't worry - Clemson will miss FTs down the stretch and the team wearing green will pull it out. (Yes I'm still bitter) :)

[tommy]

This Week in the (non-ACC) Top 25

Please discuss ACC games in the ACC thread.

This coming week offers plenty of Top 25 versus Top 25 action, plus multiple games with Top 25 teams facing quality unranked opponents. Selection Sunday is creeping closer and the landscape is ripe for upsets:


Tuesday

#1 Indiana at #4 Michigan State
#5 Florida at Missouri (18-7)

The first game is the best of the week on paper. If MSU plays as well at home as they did last week against Michigan, which may be impossible, they will beat Indiana. The Hoosiers are clearly stronger at home, as are most teams, but regardless of how Indiana is playing, the Spartans really appear to be rolling. They have a big guy in Nix who is playing the best ball of his life, and his girth may bother Zeller and IU's other bigs. And MSU is long and very active on the perimeter, and will make guys like Oladipo, Watford, and especially Ferrell work for everything they get. If MSU wins this one in a close game, the talk will intensify of both of them positioning for possible #1 seeds.


Florida annihilated Missouri a month ago in Gainesville. Just embarrassed them. It helps when you shoot 59% and hold your opponent to 32%. Don't lose many like that. And other than the game they lost, somehow, to Arkansas, the Gators haven't had a close game since. Meanwhile, Missouri has lost three of its last six against the weak SEC. I don't think they're as good as their win-loss record looks.




This Week in the (non-ACC) Top 25
Wednesday

#9 Kansas at #14 Oklahoma St

Minnesota (18-8) at #18 Ohio State

How in the world did Kansas jump up five spots in the ratings last week, from 14 to 9? Sure, they beat K-State handily, but that was at home. And then they blew out an utterly mediocre (at best) Texas team, also at home. Those two home wins warrant a five step bump-up? Why?

In any event they are going to have to earn the right to remain back in the top 10. They lost to Okie State at home earlier in the year (breaking a 33 game home winning streak) despite stud wing Le'Bryan Nash having a really poor game, thanks to their starting backcourt burning Kansas for 53 points between them. Now they have to go to Stillwater against a good Cowboy team. The winner ties K-State for the conference lead. Should be a good one.


Minnesota and the Buckeyes? Duke would like both early season victims to keep winning. Ohio State risks falling out of the Top 25 if their tailspin continues, and they lose at home to the Gophers. Both teams have lost three of their last four. One of them is about to make it four of five on the wrong end. Gulp.



This Week in the (non-ACC) Top 25
Saturday

#11 Georgetown at #8 Syracuse
Arkansas (16-9) At #5 Florida
Stanford (15-11) at #23 Oregon)

I don't know why folks are talking about Syracuse as possibly being in the mix, at this point, for a #1 seed. They don't have the RPI, the SOS, or the multiple quality wins, really. To me, they're a lot closer to a 3 than they are to a 1. Lose at home to Georgetown, and they might fall further. Winner of this one stays atop the league standings with Marquette.

Whatever the spread is in the Arkansas-Florida game, I'd take Florida.

The Oregon game may be one of Johnny D's last chances to convince folks that the program is moving in the right direction. The twin home losses last week to USC and UCLA were just killers, especially the USC game. The Sturgeons are just awful. The previous week Stanford had Arizona on the ropes in Tucson, and let it slip through their fingers. Now they did just destroy Oregon a few weeks ago at home, which to me was one of the stranger results of the season, but there it is. Maybe they can find a way to do it again. Though in a sense it may not matter, as Stanford's not going to the tournament without winning the Pac-12 tourney first. Oregon, though they've won three straight, isn't exactly on top of their game, having to go to OT last weekend to nip dreadful Washington State. The Ducks need this one to stay a game ahead of UCLA and Arizona in the league standings.



This Week in the (non-ACC) Top 25
Sunday

#4 Michigan State at #18 Ohio State

The Big 10 wars continue. And Duke fans complain about the physical and emotional fatigue of BC-UNC-Maryland? Try Indiana-Ohio State-Michigan State-Wisconsin, as Michigan just faced, or similar gamuts faced by all those top Big 10 teams, including these two, late in the season when the batteries are running low anyway. Bad for them, great for us fans!

[sporthenry]

Amazing how well the Big 10 can play in these games only to look terrible in other games. Don't know what to make of it.

First time seeing MSU in a while. Payne finally looks like he has his head on right and I guess him and Nix are the reason for MSU's rise b/c they weren't very impressive early in the year.

[cptnflash]

Michigan State was up 4, with the ball, with under 2 minutes to play, just like Clemson against Miami on Sunday. And just like Clemson, they're giving the game away.

[Saratoga2]

They went on the road and beat a very good Michigan State Team. Zeller showed some flexibility, although he did have trouble rebounding against the bigs of Michigan State. Olidipo is a tremendous presence on IU team. Great defense, quickness, athletic ability and slashing ability. He alone makes the team formidable, but they have much more. They have outside shooting from several players and their coach is playing what looked to be 10 players while giving the starters periods of rest. IU will be hard to beat and Michigan State will also be tough to beat if we face them in the tournament. Nice to see the game as both teams played hard and well.

[Billy Dat]

Michigan State was up 4, with the ball, with under 2 minutes to play, just like Clemson against Miami on Sunday. And just like Clemson, they're giving the game away.

Credit Oladipo for making several plays, but Sparty could've won it on the FT line.

[sporthenry]

They went on the road and beat a very good Michigan State Team. Zeller showed some flexibility, although he did have trouble rebounding against the bigs of Michigan State. Olidipo is a tremendous presence on IU team. Great defense, quickness, athletic ability and slashing ability. He alone makes the team formidable, but they have much more. They have outside shooting from several players and their coach is playing what looked to be 10 players while giving the starters periods of rest. IU will be hard to beat and Michigan State will also be tough to beat if we face them in the tournament. Nice to see the game as both teams played hard and well.

I thought it was a very well played game. Even the ending. I guess I see it how I want to but I didn't really see MSU give the game away (like Clemson did) but IU took it.

But if Duke is facing either of these teams, it most likely means an E8 appearance which at this point, would probably be a successful year and who knows what happens from there.

[FerryFor50]

I thought it was a very well played game. Even the ending. I guess I see it how I want to but I didn't really see MSU give the game away (like Clemson did) but IU took it.

But if Duke is facing either of these teams, it most likely means an E8 appearance which at this point, would probably be a successful year and who knows what happens from there.

MSU missed the front end of a one and one that could have made it much harder on IU. They also missed the first of a three shot FT attempt, at home. That tells me MSU gave the game away.

[sporthenry]

MSU missed the front end of a one and one that could have made it much harder on IU. They also missed the first of a three shot FT attempt, at home. That tells me MSU gave the game away.

The front end of a 1 and 1 matters. But by the time the foul occurred on the 3, IU already had a 3 point lead. So they had already "given" the game away. If you want to look at the FT line, they missed 2 FT's with the lead including the front end of a 1 and 1. So they might have left 3 points on the line, which would have been the difference between a tie and a 3 point deficit. Granted if they hit those FT's the game ends differently but the last FT's are mostly irrelevant.

I guess if you want to call fouling Watford who made a difficult shot for the 3 point play or not boxing out Oladipo as giving the game away, so be it, but the FT's only tell a part of the story.

[FerryFor50]

The front end of a 1 and 1 matters. But by the time the foul occurred on the 3, IU already had a 3 point lead. So they had already "given" the game away. If you want to look at the FT line, they missed 2 FT's with the lead including the front end of a 1 and 1. So they might have left 3 points on the line, which would have been the difference between a tie and a 3 point deficit. Granted if they hit those FT's the game ends differently but the last FT's are mostly irrelevant.

I guess if you want to call fouling Watford who made a difficult shot for the 3 point play or not boxing out Oladipo as giving the game away, so be it, but the FT's only tell a part of the story.

FTs are the story, just like in the Clemson/Miami game. 79% shooters missing FTs down the stretch is giving it away, IMO.

[sporthenry]

Florida in the process of going down at Mizzou. With IU winning at MSU, that should solidify them at the #1 for a little bit at least. But MSU and Florida both losing is good for Duke.

[FerryFor50]

Well at least Florida lost to Mizzou...

[sporthenry]

And Mizzou didn't storm the court. Thought an unranked team versus a top 5 team required this.

[FerryFor50]

And Mizzou didn't storm the court. Thought an unranked team versus a top 5 team required this.

Eh, it's a football school. :p

[throatybeard]

Eh, it's a football school. :p

Which one? I know UF is.

Random ill-informed observations from the Midwest.

Before the game, Bernie and the usual suspects in the local media were really talking up MU against Florida because MU is so good at home (and so abysmal on the road). Darned if that didn't turn out right. I didn't see all of that game, but man, was it physical. I can't make heads or tails of Mizzou. They'll make the field. I'd be just as unsurprised with a double digit 1R loss as with say a run to the region final. Bowers is a grown man.

SLU. SLU whooped Butler a few weeks ago, but the game this weekend is at Hinkle. SLU's D looks great. They just held VCU, who averages something like 82ppg I think I heard, to 62. It's kind of a dead Majerus vigil here--the team is on a crusade. If SLU upsets (?) Butler, they'll be ranked again, and probably should have already.

Thus ends your update from some guy who listens to 45 minutes of sports radio per week in the StL market. Oh, also, Illinois does not suck. 101.1 hottie alumna Michelle Smallmon tells us so, and I believe it.

[FerryFor50]

Which one? I know UF is.

Random ill-informed observations from the Midwest.

Before the game, Bernie and the usual suspects in the local media were really talking up MU against Florida because MU is so good at home (and so abysmal on the road). Darned if that didn't turn out right. I didn't see all of that game, but man, was it physical. I can't make heads or tails of Mizzou. They'll make the field. I'd be just as unsurprised with a double digit 1R loss as with say a run to the region final. Bowers is a grown man.

SLU. SLU whooped Butler a few weeks ago, but the game this weekend is at Hinkle. SLU's D looks great. They just held VCU, who averages something like 82ppg I think I heard, to 62. It's kind of a dead Majerus vigil here--the team is on a crusade. If SLU upsets (?) Butler, they'll be ranked again, and probably should have already.

Thus ends your update from some guy who listens to 45 minutes of sports radio per week in the StL market. Oh, also, Illinois does not suck. 101.1 hottie alumna Michelle Smallmon tells us so, and I believe it.

It was more of a joke. They both kind of are, being from the SEC (and Big 12 prior to SEC for Mizzou).

[TexHawk]

How in the world did Kansas jump up five spots in the ratings last week, from 14 to 9? Sure, they beat K-State handily, but that was at home. And then they blew out an utterly mediocre (at best) Texas team, also at home. Those two home wins warrant a five step bump-up? Why?


I don't know... maybe because the teams ranked 9-13 all lost, some miserably? This is generally how polls work.

(One of those teams lost by 20 to the team you are questioning, who they have now lost to twice home/road.)

[Bluedog]

And Mizzou didn't storm the court. Thought an unranked team versus a top 5 team required this.


Eh, it's a football school. :p

The SEC fines schools for storming the court (South Carolina had to pay up $25k in 2010), so the Mizzou student body was probably aware of this and told not to (and, to their credit, they listened). I believe the SEC is the only BCS conference to fine schools for court storming.

[throatybeard]

It was more of a joke. They both kind of are, being from the SEC (and Big 12 prior to SEC for Mizzou).

Seriously though, I'm not sure whether I'd classifying Mizzou as a basketball school or a football school. Arguably during the Norm Stewart era, it was a basketball school.

[Wander]

Seriously though, I'm not sure whether I'd classifying Mizzou as a basketball school or a football school. Arguably during the Norm Stewart era, it was a basketball school.

I think the default is football, due to the difference in general popularity between the two sports. If a school isn't CLEARLY a basketball school and is in a BCS conference, then it's a football school.

[throatybeard]

I think the default is football, due to the difference in general popularity between the two sports. If a school isn't CLEARLY a basketball school and is in a BCS conference, then it's a football school.

Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[sporthenry]

Good for Duke, Ohio State won. Bad, Minnesota got smoked.

OK State hanging in there with KU. They don't look that bad. I haven't watched nearly enough college basketball and filling out a bracket this year is going to be an adventure this year.

[Bluedog]

KU won a double OT nailbiter by a point. The most impressive thing to me is they managed to win after making zero field goals in the first OT and then one FG with 13 seconds remaining in the second. That's right-one made FG in two overtimes and came away with the victory. ;)

[subzero02]

I will go on record now and say that if a Big 1* team doesn't make the final four I will be shocked...

[davekay1971]

I will go on record now and say that if a Big 1* team doesn't make the final four I will be shocked...

Even as unpredictable as is the tournament, I think you're right. They have four very solid teams capable of making the Final Four in Indiana, Michigan, Mich St, and Ohio St. Add in Minnesota and Wisconsin as teams with the tools to make a 4 game run, and the odds are that one of these teams will get there. I'm just waiting on the talking heads at ESPN to start waxing poetic about how dominant the Big 1? is this year and discussing the possibility of an All-Big 1? Final Four, which is most assuredly not going to happen.

After all, there's going to be an ACC team from Durham there...

[TexHawk]

Even as unpredictable as is the tournament, I think you're right. They have four very solid teams capable of making the Final Four in Indiana, Michigan, Mich St, and Ohio St. Add in Minnesota and Wisconsin as teams with the tools to make a 4 game run, and the odds are that one of these teams will get there. I'm just waiting on the talking heads at ESPN to start waxing poetic about how dominant the Big 1? is this year and discussing the possibility of an All-Big 1? Final Four, which is most assuredly not going to happen.


Ohio State is what, 19-7? They are 5th in the Big10, and they really only have one nice win, at home over Michigan. They have lost to the good teams in the Big10, some pretty badly, including being smacked at home by Indiana. They also lost to Duke and KU in the noncon. (They are 1-7 against the Top 50.)

They don't have any losses to poor teams, but they also have to play MSU and Indiana again. They will likely finish 11-7 or 12-6 in the Big10, which is nothing to sneeze at, but hardly the resume of a Final Four contender, imo. To me, they look like a streaky jump shooting team, the kind that can make the Final 4 if they are on, but also just as likely to drop their first round game.

[Bluedog]

Ohio State is what, 19-7? They are 5th in the Big10, and they really only have one nice win, at home over Michigan. They have lost to the good teams in the Big10, some pretty badly, including being smacked at home by Indiana. They also lost to Duke and KU in the noncon. (They are 1-7 against the Top 50.)

They don't have any losses to poor teams, but they also have to play MSU and Indiana again. They will likely finish 11-7 or 12-6 in the Big10, which is nothing to sneeze at, but hardly the resume of a Final Four contender, imo. To me, they look like a streaky jump shooting team, the kind that can make the Final 4 if they are on, but also just as likely to drop their first round game.

Maybe, but conference records aren't the end all be all. UConn was 9-9 in the Big East regular season and won it all in 2011. Georgia Tech was 9-7 in the ACC and got to the national championship game in 2004. Those are just two that come to mind - sometimes going through an arduous schedule prepares you well regardless on if you pull out all the victories. I'll say one thing - I wouldn't want to see Ohio State as a 6 seed (which is what some people are projecting them at although sounds way too low to me) if I'm a 3 at all. They have a capability to beat almost any team on a given night, but have just been inconsistent.

[TexHawk]

Maybe, but conference records aren't the end all be all. UConn was 9-9 in the Big East regular season and won it all in 2011. Georgia Tech was 9-7 in the ACC and got to the national championship game in 2004. Those are just two that come to mind - sometimes going through an arduous schedule prepares you well regardless on if you pull out all the victories. I'll say one thing - I wouldn't want to see Ohio State as a 6 seed (which is what some people are projecting them at although sounds way too low to me) if I'm a 3 at all. They have a capability to beat almost any team on a given night, but have just been inconsistent.
Well, I'd argue that they don't, as they have only been able to do that once in 8 tries. That's not *inconsistency* to me. As far as I can tell, they were really only competitive in the two Michigan games. The outcomes were not really in doubt in the others.

Regarding the UCONN/G-Tech comparison, I think you are way more likely to see mediocre conference records turn into mediocre tournament results than the opposite. Trust me, this is coming from someone who's favorite team won a title in '88 as a #6, so I know it happens, it's just not *likely*. Yes, UCONN was 9-9, but they had multiple wins over Top 10 teams that season, they just lost a bunch of games to bad teams. OSU in 2013 doesn't seem to have a problem with the bad teams, it's the good ones that give them fits.

[ChillinDuke]

Maybe, but conference records aren't the end all be all. UConn was 9-9 in the Big East regular season and won it all in 2011. Georgia Tech was 9-7 in the ACC and got to the national championship game in 2004. Those are just two that come to mind - sometimes going through an arduous schedule prepares you well regardless on if you pull out all the victories. I'll say one thing - I wouldn't want to see Ohio State as a 6 seed (which is what some people are projecting them at although sounds way too low to me) if I'm a 3 at all. They have a capability to beat almost any team on a given night, but have just been inconsistent.

Yes and no.

I don't know. There's one thing to keep in mind here - anyone can beat anyone. Once you get past that clear fact, I'm not sure I see OSU as some clearly scarier team compared to other teams on their line. Other than them playing us tough when we were presumably all watching, what makes them scarier than the other teams on the #6 line according to Joe Lunardi (granted, Joe has OSU as a #5 in his latest edition)?

OSU is 3-7 against the RPI Top-50 and 7-7 against the Top-100. I looked up the #6s based on your post (should have done #5s but too lazy now):

Memphis 1-3 (Top 50); 5-3 (Top 100)
ND 4-3 7-6
Pitt 4-6 8-7
Oregon 3-2 8-5

On paper OSU does not appear better than the 6s. If anything - their splits may be worse that the other guys. I could just as easily see OSU throwing up a dud in the first round as tearing into the final four.

The point I'm trying to make is that there are fewer clear "scary" teams than normal. And my definition of "scary" is basically someone underseeded. As I think about it more, maybe that makes everyone scarier - just given the craziness/unpredictability that seems to be going on this year.

I just don't buy the "Team X/Team Y is scary and can go on a run this year" talk. Less than I normally do. Why? Because almost all of the teams have multiple duds to go with their multiple quality wins. The variance is high. The way I see it - it gives us much less predictive power in a one-and-done format than we may normally have.

- Chillin (tab: $0.36)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The point I'm trying to make is that there are fewer clear "scary" teams than normal. And my definition of "scary" is basically someone underseeded. As I think about it more, maybe that makes everyone scarier - just given the craziness/unpredictability that seems to be going on this year.

I just don't buy the "Team X/Team Y is scary and can go on a run this year" talk. Less than I normally do. Why? Because almost all of the teams have multiple duds to go with their multiple quality wins. The variance is high. The way I see it - it gives us much less predictive power in a one-and-done format than we may normally have.

- Chillin (tab: $0.36)

I agree with your premise, but I see the other side of the coin. I made a point in another thread that this strange carousel-like season in the top 10 might mean that there aren't any "great" teams, but it's going to make for one helluva tournament. In the last few years, we've seen it become very clear that the gap between big conference and small conference schools has never been narrower. I'd say that the same is true about the difference between the top 64/68 school.

I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of early upsets, and at least one or two final four teams either from small conferences or lower than a 4 seed. I think that filling out our brackets is going to be about as useful as a dart board.

Oh, and the tournament should be loads of fun.

[Billy Dat]

I agree with your premise, but I see the other side of the coin. I made a point in another thread that this strange carousel-like season in the top 10 might mean that there aren't any "great" teams, but it's going to make for one helluva tournament. In the last few years, we've seen it become very clear that the gap between big conference and small conference schools has never been narrower. I'd say that the same is true about the difference between the top 64/68 school.

I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of early upsets, and at least one or two final four teams either from small conferences or lower than a 4 seed. I think that filling out our brackets is going to be about as useful as a dart board.

Oh, and the tournament should be loads of fun.

I heard Gary Parrish of CBS Sports.com make a point yesterday that I think sums up this feeling very well from a slightly different perspective...."There is not one team that would shock me if they didn't make the Final Four". He compared the feeling to last year's Kentucky team which he said, had they lost before the Final Four, he'd have been shocked. I think it is an accurate take and speaks to lack of a dominant team.

[CDu]

I heard Gary Parrish of CBS Sports.com make a point yesterday that I think sums up this feeling very well from a slightly different perspective...."There is not one team that would shock me if they didn't make the Final Four". He compared the feeling to last year's Kentucky team which he said, had they lost before the Final Four, he'd have been shocked. I think it is an accurate take and speaks to lack of a dominant team.

True. But I feel like that statement applies many years, so I don't think it's strong enough a statement. I'd go further and say that there isn't one team that would shock me to not make it past the Sweet-16." That would still be true for me. Heck, I am not entirely sure I'd be shocked if any particular #1 didn't even make the Sweet-16. And I don't know that I've ever felt that way in previous years.

[sporthenry]

Well, I'd argue that they don't, as they have only been able to do that once in 8 tries. That's not *inconsistency* to me. As far as I can tell, they were really only competitive in the two Michigan games. The outcomes were not really in doubt in the others.


On top of the 2 Michigan games, (lost by 3 at home and by 2 in OT), they also lost by 3 at MSU. Then at Duke, the game was also very close especially in the first half until Thomas got in foul trouble and they were never the same but it wasn't some blow out. Even versus KU it was under a 10 point game. They did have 3 blowouts at Illinois, at Wisconsin and home to Indiana. And they did beat Wisconsin before they were ranked.

And I guess these 7-10 seeds will all have this potential but I agree that I wouldn't want to see OSU in the tournament. It will all be about match-ups. They seem to struggle a bit with size, which is why Michigan couldn't pull away and if you don't have anyone to guard Thomas, it will be a struggle. Craft is still a very good defensive guy and has the potential to make some PGs stumble but the key is making his offense beat you.

[Billy Dat]

True. But I feel like that statement applies many years, so I don't think it's strong enough a statement. I'd go further and say that there isn't one team that would shock me to not make it past the Sweet-16." That would still be true for me. Heck, I am not entirely sure I'd be shocked if any particular #1 didn't even make the Sweet-16. And I don't know that I've ever felt that way in previous years.

Perhaps, we'll have to see how someone like Indiana ends the year. Right now, I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't make the Sweet 16.

[TruBlu]

Perhaps, we'll have to see how someone like Indiana ends the year. Right now, I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't make the Sweet 16.

But can they beat the Bobcats???

[CDu]

Perhaps, we'll have to see how someone like Indiana ends the year. Right now, I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't make the Sweet 16.

But would you be shocked (or even more than mildly surprised) if they lost in the Sweet-16? That's where this year feels so different. In other years, there was may one #1 that you would be surprised to see lose before the Elite-8 (obviously not all #1s make the Elite-8, but it's generally a fairly decent surprise when a particular #1 doesn't make it).

This year? I wouldn't be shocked even if all four #1s lost before the Elite 8. That's why I feel like Parrish's comment wasn't strong enough.

[sporthenry]

But would you be shocked (or even more than mildly surprised) if they lost in the Sweet-16? That's where this year feels so different. In other years, there was may one #1 that you would be surprised to see lose before the Elite-8 (obviously not all #1s make the Elite-8, but it's generally a fairly decent surprise when a particular #1 doesn't make it).

This year? I wouldn't be shocked even if all four #1s lost before the Elite 8. That's why I feel like Parrish's comment wasn't strong enough.

In 2010, KU (overall #1 seed) lost to Northern Iowa and I bet most people would have said they'd be surprised to not see them in the E8 and they didn't even make the S16. Heck, I had them winning.

I guess it is all about perception but even those top teams have lost. I agree that I wouldn't be surprised to see some massive upsets at least more so than normal but we'll also have to see what happens. We say this now and then all the #1 seeds will make the F4 and we'll wonder what happened.

And for the record, I'd be very surprised if IU didn't make the E8 and even more so if they didn't make the S16.

[CDu]

In 2010, KU (overall #1 seed) lost to Northern Iowa and I bet most people would have said they'd be surprised to not see them in the E8 and they didn't even make the S16. Heck, I had them winning.

Right, that's my point. Most of the time, the #1s are so strong that it is shocking when they lose in the Sweet-16 (or earlier). I felt quite sure that Kansas would make the Final Four that year.

This year, I just don't think that I'll be shocked if any of the #1s fall short of the Sweet-16.


I guess it is all about perception but even those top teams have lost. I agree that I wouldn't be surprised to see some massive upsets at least more so than normal but we'll also have to see what happens. We say this now and then all the #1 seeds will make the F4 and we'll wonder what happened.

Of course. Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament.


And for the record, I'd be very surprised if IU didn't make the E8 and even more so if they didn't make the S16.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Indiana made the Elite-8. I also won't be at all surprised if Indiana loses in the Sweet-16. And I won't be all that shocked if they lost in the first weekend. They've lost 3 times, all to teams in the #4 seed or lower range (twice to teams in the #6-8 range). They just barely beat an Iowa team that probably won't make the tournament.

Don't get me wrong - they will almost certainly be deserving of a #1 seed come tournament time, and any loss for them before the Elite-8 would be an upset. But they are not some juggernaut team by any means. They have good shooters and a very talented top 6-7. But like Duke, they are pretty thin up front.

[sporthenry]

Right, that's my point. Most of the time, the #1s are so strong that it is shocking when they lose in the Sweet-16 (or earlier). I felt quite sure that Kansas would make the Final Four that year.

This year, I just don't think that I'll be shocked if any of the #1s fall short of the Sweet-16.


Well my main point about Kansas though, is that even in those years where we though a team was dominant and the clear top 1 or 2 teams, it still didn't work out. And I don't think it'll be any worse than a year like 2011 where no #1 made the F4. I think this is a discussion that will be answered come tourney time.

To me, whatever seeds make the E8 or the F4 will ultimately determine if this really was that much parity or perhaps this was just top teams losing to each other. If you compare where we are in the season and the records, we don't have those undefeated or 1-loss teams but a gluttony of those 3-4 loss teams and it doesn't seem that different from 2011. In 2011, the amount of losses by top 10 teams at this point was 30, while now there are 35 losses.

And it just seems like there are a ton more of these top match ups. Heck, 3 of MSU's losses are to the top 2 teams in the country. Michigan has lost to #1, 4, 18, and 19. Even those years when the Big East was that tough, with the 16 teams, you didn't see the gauntlet these Big Ten teams have had to run.

[CDu]

Well my main point about Kansas though, is that even in those years where we though a team was dominant and the clear top 1 or 2 teams, it still didn't work out. And I don't think it'll be any worse than a year like 2011 where no #1 made the F4. I think this is a discussion that will be answered come tourney time.

No disagree me that sometimes things don't work out. That's the nature of a single-elimination tournament.


To me, whatever seeds make the E8 or the F4 will ultimately determine if this really was that much parity or perhaps this was just top teams losing to each other. If you compare where we are in the season and the records, we don't have those undefeated or 1-loss teams but a gluttony of those 3-4 loss teams and it doesn't seem that different from 2011. In 2011, the amount of losses by top 10 teams at this point was 30, while now there are 35 losses.

I don't think the results of a single-elimination tournament should be much evidence for or against parity.

As for the difference between 2011 and this year, that is probably the closest comparison. But even 2011 season had a (seemingly) clear separation between the top-3 (OSU, Duke, Kansas) and the rest. The four #2 seeds had 6, 7, 7, and 2 (the 2 being San Diego State who played a non-BCS schedule) losses compared to 2, 2, 4, and 5 losses for the #1s.

This year, we have 14 BCS teams with between 3 and 5 losses. There is just much less separation. Obviously, that could change some over the next 3 weeks. But I don't think we'll see nearly the separation that we saw in 2011.


And it just seems like there are a ton more of these top match ups. Heck, 3 of MSU's losses are to the top 2 teams in the country. Michigan has lost to #1, 4, 18, and 19. Even those years when the Big East was that tough, with the 16 teams, you didn't see the gauntlet these Big Ten teams have had to run.

To be fair, Michigan did almost lose at home to an NC State team that is very averse to playing on the road, and Wisconsin did lose at home to UVa. That said, I agree that the Big-10 is perhaps the toughest conferences we've seen since the apex of the ACC (in 1995, we had a losing record but were still a top-30 caliber team by the metrics).

[sporthenry]

As for the difference between 2011 and this year, that is probably the closest comparison. But even 2011 season had a (seemingly) clear separation between the top-3 (OSU, Duke, Kansas) and the rest. The four #2 seeds had 6, 7, 7, and 2 (the 2 being San Diego State who played a non-BCS schedule) losses compared to 2, 2, 4, and 5 losses for the #1s.

This year, we have 14 BCS teams with between 3 and 5 losses. There is just much less separation. Obviously, that could change some over the next 3 weeks. But I don't think we'll see nearly the separation that we saw in 2011.


I think this is the crux of everything. There isn't a lot of separation between the top 15 and I'd agree with that. But in terms of the separation between those top 10 ish teams versus the top 35 teams, I say they still exist. Each year, there are always some 7-10 seeds who are very tough BCS schools who have some nice wins like a Minnesota or UCLA. Perhaps in past years when I'd be surprised if a 1 or 2 seed didn't make the F4, I'll further that to add the 3 or 4 seed in that region but I'd still be surprised to see a 6+ higher seed go to the F4.

I guess when I think of parity, it means that the #8/9 seed has a better chance to win than in years past but it seems this parity this year is just that any of the top 10-15 teams could win it all.

[throatybeard]

This thread has confused me as to whether everyone is great or whether everyone sucks.

[vick]

I heard Gary Parrish of CBS Sports.com make a point yesterday that I think sums up this feeling very well from a slightly different perspective...."There is not one team that would shock me if they didn't make the Final Four". He compared the feeling to last year's Kentucky team which he said, had they lost before the Final Four, he'd have been shocked. I think it is an accurate take and speaks to lack of a dominant team.

I've heard this too. I'm not sure I'm completely convinced though. I mean, just looking at Kenpom rankings, 2012 Kentucky had a rating of 0.9679, where this year's Indiana is 0.9750. And, looking at the schedules, you can start to see why Indiana has three losses vs. UK's one at this point in the season: UK's hardest road game had been at #11 Indiana (which they lost by one--it was a great game), with the next toughest at #16 Vanderbilt (which they won by 6), and the next toughest at #61 Tennessee (which they won by 3). By comparison, Indiana has already played at #12 Michigan State (won by 4), at #13 Ohio State (won by 13), at #27 Illinois (lost by 2), and at #30 Iowa (won by 4). I guess my point is, I think this "no great teams compared to last year" depends at least partly on the fact that the best team last year played in a decent but far from great SEC (fourth ranked conference), whereas this year's preseason number one, and probably the best team, plays in a Big Ten that is one of the best conferences in recent memory. I don't think 2012 UK, or any other team in the last few years, would run the Big Ten this year with one or two losses on the season. As a semi-related aside, I think this also partly accounts for why I'm not sold on the 'Miami is the best team' bandwagon--does anyone realistically think you swap their January and February schedule with Indiana's and they'd likely be undefeated in 2013? I sure don't think so.

[juise]

Looks like the Jayhawks recall the embarrassment of losing to TCU. They were up 38-9 at half in Lawrence.

[FerryFor50]

KU in a close one at Iowa St.

ISU got hosed the last minute of the game. Withey commits an obvious foul late that woukd have DQ'd him, but they call it on another KU player. Then a no call on a blatant charge by Elijah Johnson, who then gets the ball while on the ground (with his hand on the floor out of bounds) and gets the foul call on the guy he bowled over. Horrible last minute of officiating.

I would *not* want to run into the Cyclones in March this year. They are one of those teams that are pesky, shoots a ton of 3s and hits their FTs. They will likely be an upset in waiting for some team in the tournament...

[sporthenry]

Nova goes down at Seton Hall. That puts their tournament hopes in serious jeopardy. Blew a 4 point lead with 20 seconds to go.

[BigWayne]

KU in a close one at Iowa St.

ISU got hosed the last minute of the game. Withey commits an obvious foul late that woukd have DQ'd him, but they call it on another KU player. Then a no call on a blatant charge by Elijah Johnson, who then gets the ball while on the ground (with his hand on the floor out of bounds) and gets the foul call on the guy he bowled over. Horrible last minute of officiating.

I would *not* want to run into the Cyclones in March this year. They are one of those teams that are pesky, shoots a ton of 3s and hits their FTs. They will likely be an upset in waiting for some team in the tournament...
One of the worst hose jobs I have seen in recent memory. This one is so bad these officials should be reprimanded like our buddy Karl Hess.

[BigWayne]

Big 12 admits the refs screwed it up.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8992559/big-12-admits-officiating-errors-kansas-jayhawks-win-iowa-state-cyclones