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pfrduke
02-18-2013, 03:10 PM
Three weeks left in conference play and already it's looking like the race is going to be for second place. Miami has a three game cushion thanks to a couple of 2-point decisions over the weekend after Maryland held off Duke but Clemson couldn't do the same against the Canes. Narrow wins for Miami and NCSU (overtime, Virginia Tech) meant that for the second straight week the top 6 went undefeated against the bottom 6. This week is filled with more of those match ups - only 2 between teams in the top 6. If the league wants to get 6 NCAA bids, continuing to beat the bottom of the conference remains a priority.

Monday is dark - happy Presidents Day!

Tuesday starts of the week with a bundle of activity. Four of the five mid-week games (Clemson and Wake finally have their byes) tip off tonight. The biggest matchup is Virginia heading down to Coral Gables. The Cavs have not been the same team on the road as they have at home, although their 2 road wins have been by double digits. Miami, on the other hand, has been steamrolling teams at home, and they get to finish their season with four of six in South Florida. NC State gets a home game against the Seminoles. Maryland and UNC look to maintain momentum from their big home wins this weekend when they travel to bottom 6 opponents in Boston College and Georgia Tech, respectively.

[43]NC State hosts [110]Florida State
[10]Miami hosts [19]Virginia
[77]Georgia Tech hosts [38]North Carolina
[120]Boston College hosts [56]Maryland

Wednesday is dark again. Wednesdays without ACC basketball are not right.

Thursday has Duke on the road again, this time traveling to Blacksburg. Erick Green is good for 25 - the question is whether his team will show up enough to help out.

[148]Virginia Tech hosts [8]Duke

Friday is dark.

Saturday has three games. The biggest matchup is NCSU traveling up the road to Chapel Hill. The Pack had a huge lead on UNC that almost slipped away and it continues to struggle on the road - just two wins, over BC and Clemson, by a total of 6 points. One thing to watch for will be whether Roy stays with the smaller lineup that's played so well in the last couple of games against a team with as talented a frontline as State has or whether he reverts to the bigger lineup. If he stays small, PJ Hairston's ability to defend CJ Leslie in the post will be a key matchup to watch. In other action, Maryland hosts Clemson and Miami hits the road for the second-to-last time this season to take on Wake Forest. The latter could be an upset special - Wake has a week off to prepare and has played like a different team at home (+27 in 6 games, although most of that is from the 25-point win over FSU).

[38]North Carolina hosts [43]NC State
[137]Wake Forest hosts [10]Miami
[56]Maryland hosts [88]Clemson

Sunday has a couple of top 6 teams hosting bottom 6 team, as well as a matchup among two of the bottom. A national TV audience (sort of - it's ESPNU) will be stuck with FSU-Virginia Tech at 6. Earlier in the day, Duke hosts Boston College and Virginia hosts Georgia Tech.

[8]Duke hosts [120]Boston College
[19]Virginia hosts [77]Georgia Tech
[148]Virginia Tech hosts [110]Florida State

ACC Non-Conference Record: 115-37
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 19-18
(note - now that non-conference play is done the detailed record by conference won't be re-posted until we hit tournament play).

Bob Green
02-19-2013, 05:55 AM
Tuesday

[10]Miami hosts [19]Virginia
[77]Georgia Tech hosts [38]North Carolina

Virginia has the talent to upset Miami if they can dictate pace. In the North Carolina game, I'm interested to see if Coach Williams sticks with the new line-up and continues to play his starters the majority of minutes.




Thursday

[148]Virginia Tech hosts [8]Duke

Duke on the road. We should have no problem with the bottom feeding Hokies, but be sure this game will feature more pushing, shoving and grabbing than a MMA event. If the refs swallow their whistles, this game could be a very ugly affair.




Saturday

[38]North Carolina hosts [43]NC State

Will State show up?

JasonEvans
02-19-2013, 06:06 AM
Seeing as NC St and UNC are both 7-5 in the conference, it is a safe bet that their game this weekend will go a long way toward determining which team gets to be in the top 4 in the conference... a position that brings with it a bye in the first round of the ACC Tourney. That can be both a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, it gives you what is likely one more win at a time of year when an extra win can be just what you need to get into the Dance. Of course, it also means that you can only win the ACC Tourney if you win 4 times in 4 days, which ain't easy.

-Jason "I may be wrong, but I think Syracuse and/or Pitt are the only teams to win 4 games in 4 days to win a conference tourney" Evans

Bob Green
02-19-2013, 06:17 AM
-Jason "I may be wrong, but I think Syracuse and/or Pitt are the only teams to win 4 games in 4 days to win a conference tourney" Evans

How about UConn in 2011? Off to google...

Bob Green
02-19-2013, 06:20 AM
Google is great...

UConn won five straight game on March 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 in 2011.

AncientPsychicT
02-19-2013, 11:19 AM
-Jason "I may be wrong, but I think Syracuse and/or Pitt are the only teams to win 4 games in 4 days to win a conference tourney" Evans

Xavier in 2004. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_10_Men's_Basketball_Tournament)

You may recall that this Xavier team made the Elite Eight, where they lost to a team that should have won the title. :mad:

davekay1971
02-19-2013, 07:17 PM
State doing what teams in the ACC do this year, playing well at home. With 15 minutes left, they have a solid 14 point lead of FSU. FSU hasn't been able to mount any type of run, despite some mediocre defense by State and the usual slew of questionable offensive decisions by the Pack. State has been effective, taking advantage of poor FSU shooting and ball-handling and building a nice lead. If State continues to simply play reasonably well, they should win this game by 15-20.

davekay1971
02-19-2013, 07:39 PM
Btw, a good career to honor is Scott Wood, who's time at NCSU is coming to an end. Wood has been a GREAT 3 point shooter, has developed an incredibly quick release and ability to catch and shoot beautifully coming off screens. He's also been a smart player and good defender on NCSU teams that have frequently been short on both.

Tonight he passed 300 3 pt field goals made. He won't come close to catching JJ, but he's got some impressive names on the short list of people in front of him on the all time ACC 3 pt FG made list, including J Will (in 3 years) and Justin Gray of WFU, both of whom he'll probably pass before the regular season is over.

Wood won't be remembered as an ACC great, but he's a solid player and a guy who had made the most of his abilities and he's been a fun player to watch for the last 4 years.

sporthenry
02-19-2013, 08:27 PM
Amazing how quiet it is at Miami versus the #3 team in conference compared to what it was when Duke was there. Cameron always sounds loud whether its BC or UNC.

FerryFor50
02-19-2013, 08:34 PM
Btw, a good career to honor is Scott Wood, who's time at NCSU is coming to an end. Wood has been a GREAT 3 point shooter, has developed an incredibly quick release and ability to catch and shoot beautifully coming off screens. He's also been a smart player and good defender on NCSU teams that have frequently been short on both.

Tonight he passed 300 3 pt field goals made. He won't come close to catching JJ, but he's got some impressive names on the short list of people in front of him on the all time ACC 3 pt FG made list, including J Will (in 3 years) and Justin Gray of WFU, both of whom he'll probably pass before the regular season is over.

Wood won't be remembered as an ACC great, but he's a solid player and a guy who had made the most of his abilities and he's been a fun player to watch for the last 4 years.

I'm more impressed by 31 pts and 13 rebounds from TJ Warren. He's going to be a thorn in the ACC's side if he stays all 4 years.

Also of note, Rodney Purvis played only 12 min in a blowout...

BlueDevilBrowns
02-19-2013, 08:39 PM
Btw, a good career to honor is Scott Wood, who's time at NCSU is coming to an end. Wood has been a GREAT 3 point shooter, has developed an incredibly quick release and ability to catch and shoot beautifully coming off screens. He's also been a smart player and good defender on NCSU teams that have frequently been short on both.

Tonight he passed 300 3 pt field goals made. He won't come close to catching JJ, but he's got some impressive names on the short list of people in front of him on the all time ACC 3 pt FG made list, including J Will (in 3 years) and Justin Gray of WFU, both of whom he'll probably pass before the regular season is over.

Wood won't be remembered as an ACC great, but he's a solid player and a guy who had made the most of his abilities and he's been a fun player to watch for the last 4 years.

I always thought Wood would have been a devastating offensive weapon for Coach K had he been a Blue Devil. He always reminded me a little of what Taylor King could have been.

FerryFor50
02-19-2013, 09:20 PM
GT down by 6. 1-8 at the line so far. Why can't ACC teams convert at the line against UNC and Miami the way they do against us?

sporthenry
02-19-2013, 09:32 PM
BC outscoring MD 17-5 in the 2nd half. I know MD is in a let down game but BC has talent. Hanlan 5-9 for 14 points and 6 rebounds. Staying in the game despite Ryan Anderson being practically invisible.

UVA taking it to Miami. Miami stretched it out to something like a 7 point lead but UVA with 2 huge 3's. Amazing how every shot for and against UVA is huge b/c of the pace.

JasonEvans
02-19-2013, 09:44 PM
This Miami game is a huge resume one for Virginia if they can find a way to win (down 1, 6 mins left). Virginia has an impressive conference record (8-4), but their RPI is a wretched 79 thanks to them playing one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (RPI ranks it #314).

They also have one of the strangest RPI records you will ever see. Against the RPI top 100, they are an incredibly impressive 6-1. Against RPI teams #101-200, they are a head-scratching 6-5 including losses to George Mason, Delaware, and Old Dominion.

It is worth noting that until tonight, UVA had not played Miami or Duke, so their impressive ACC record came with a couple big asterisks.

-Jason "Miami now up 3, 2 mins left... c'mon Cavs!" Evans

Durham Thunder
02-19-2013, 09:47 PM
I'm so sick of Miami coming up in the last 30 seconds of these latest games.

Can't wait for March 2nd.

sporthenry
02-19-2013, 09:47 PM
Harris with a giant 3. Then they let Larkin get a lay up to take the lead.

Miami has twice as many FTA and yet UVA almost has as many makes 5-4. Another strike against Miami come March. Shooting 5-12 from the line will hurt them.

FerryFor50
02-19-2013, 09:49 PM
And Joe Harris, shooting 77% at the line, misses a game tying FT with 30 seconds left.

Durham Thunder
02-19-2013, 09:54 PM
I hate the university of virginia.

pfrduke
02-19-2013, 09:54 PM
Unbelievable.

FerryFor50
02-19-2013, 09:54 PM
Sigh. Miami escapes again. UVA leaves Reggie Johnson wiiiiide open for a layup and then throws the inbound away.

sporthenry
02-19-2013, 09:55 PM
Now you want to talk about falling apart. Giving up a wide open layup in a tie game. Then giving the ball to Scott on the impending inbound play.

pfrduke
02-19-2013, 09:57 PM
Shows the value of dangerous playmakers - Virginia was sufficiently terrified of both Larkin and Kadji that they left Johnson wide open.

Hancock 4 Duke
02-19-2013, 09:58 PM
Now you want to talk about falling apart. Giving up a wide open layup in a tie game. Then giving the ball to Scott on the impending inbound play.

I cannot express my anger towards that game. Bleh. All Virginia had to do was, you know, not let them score 4 points in 5 seconds and it would've been a good OT game.

cptnflash
02-19-2013, 09:58 PM
Hopefully Indiana will drop a game somewhere so that Miami will be undefeated in conference and ranked #1 when they come to Cameron.

sporthenry
02-19-2013, 09:59 PM
Shows the value of dangerous playmakers - Virginia was sufficiently terrified of both Larkin and Kadji that they left Johnson wide open.

Yeah, but that was bad. Not sure if that was bad execution or coaching. But in a tie game, you prefer a guy who averages 1 3PM a game to get the ball on the perimeter. Not to mention, I thought they did too much on Larkin. If you just played good hedge and help defense, he wouldn't get a wide open lay up.

sbroc012
02-19-2013, 10:00 PM
So frustrating....mark it down...if Miami gets a 1 seed somehow they will lose to the 8/9 in the second round...mark it down...still don't believe they are really legit ...they can change my mind only if they win the ACC tourney

ChrisP
02-19-2013, 10:02 PM
Also, Maryland follows up the upset of us with....a loss to lowly (3-9 ACC) BC. Yeah, it's at BC (and yeah, I know we were lucky to win up there) but...jeez. And of course, Alex Len has all of 4pts in this one.

Ugh, I'm still mad about the way we played at MD :mad:

Durham Thunder
02-19-2013, 10:02 PM
Hopefully Indiana will drop a game somewhere so that Miami will be undefeated in conference and ranked #1 when they come to Cameron.

I was hoping for an amazing #1 vs. #2 matchup at Cameron...classic. But thanks to the turtles that may not happen. Nonetheless, I REALLY want to beat those guys.

sporthenry
02-19-2013, 10:03 PM
Miami is still winning but they aren't playing well. If Duke peaked in November/December than Miami peaked in January.

Not that teams can't get hot again and still a good team but not playing very good basketball.

On another note, I think Duke would do good to come out of the @UVA, v. Miami stretch 1-1 especially sans Kelly.

sporthenry
02-19-2013, 10:05 PM
Also, Maryland follows up the upset of us with....a loss to lowly (3-9 ACC) BC. Yeah, it's at BC (and yeah, I know we were lucky to win up there) but...jeez. And of course, Alex Len has all of 4pts in this one.

Ugh, I'm still mad about the way we played at MD :mad:

Home court is big in the ACC but just another time when a team gets up to play Duke. No way BC has the personnel to limit Len to 4 points if he played like he did Saturday.

But come tournament time, every team gets everyone's best shot so Duke is ready for it.

JasonEvans
02-19-2013, 10:06 PM
What the UVA players were thinking....


"Uh-oh, Kadji is open for a deep three pointer. There is no human way I can get there in time to stop him, but I better leave Reggie Johnson wide open for a layup just on the offhand chance that the ball is passed to Kadji."

"Darn, they scored a basket to take the lead. This is a perfect time to make a lazy, careless pass to the most obvious guy on the court. I am sure no one will be paying attention to our PG when we inbound the ball."

Someone remind me that Virginia is a pretty good academic school, please.

-Jason "I am eternally thankful right now that I am not a Cav fan, as I would be gouging my eyes out so I would never have to watch those final 10 seconds again in my life" Evans

JasonEvans
02-19-2013, 10:11 PM
Shows the value of dangerous playmakers - Virginia was sufficiently terrified of both Larkin and Kadji that they left Johnson wide open.

Yup, Kadji had all of 7 points in the game on 3-7 shooting. Much better to be terrified of him and leave Reggie Johnson to get a layup. Virginia just had no clue how to guard Larkin, that was the problem. A simple high screen by Kadji and UVA was utterly lost on that play. I guess they had never heard of Miami using Kadji to screen for Larkin. It was a brand new play that totally surprised them...

...either that or it is what Miami does about 95% of the time late in close games, not sure which.

-Jason "I suppose I should not care as this makes Duke's path to the ACC's #2 seed much easier" Evans

ChrisP
02-19-2013, 10:14 PM
What a WEIRD box in the MD-BC game. MD made 10 threes but only 10 two point FG's for the entire game. They got 8 FT's to go in and so only scored 58 point (on 10 made 3's???)

BC fared only slightly better with 15 made two point baskets and a reasonable-seeming 6 threes and yet they managed to score 69 points. Shooting 21-22 from the FT line - as BC did - will help for sure!

I'm sorry, but that's just a WEIRD game :eek:

JasonEvans
02-19-2013, 10:15 PM
Ok, people, the question of the night...

Which would suck worse tonight, being a Virginia fan or a Maryland fan?

-Jason "hmmm, excitement and then abject failure versus non-stop abject failure" Evans

FerryFor50
02-19-2013, 10:17 PM
Ok, people, the question of the night...

Which would suck worse tonight, being a Virginia fan or a Maryland fan?

-Jason "hmmm, excitement and then abject failure versus non-stop abject failure" Evans

It always sucks to be a Maryland fan, because, by definition, you suck at life.

sporthenry
02-19-2013, 10:18 PM
Yup, Kadji had all of 7 points in the game on 3-7 shooting. Much better to be terrified of him and leave Reggie Johnson to get a layup. Virginia just had no clue how to guard Larkin, that was the problem. A simple high screen by Kadji and UVA was utterly lost on that play. I guess they had never heard of Miami using Kadji to screen for Larkin. It was a brand new play that totally surprised them...

...either that or it is what Miami does about 95% of the time late in close games, not sure which.

-Jason "I suppose I should not care as this makes Duke's path to the ACC's #2 seed much easier" Evans

Agree about the final play. Seemed like the UVA guy was trying to be the hero and read the play. But I think the double of Larkin was the worst part. No reason to double him like that. The time before when he got a wide open lay up was more b/c of no help defense. As long as the bigs were ready to step up with penetration, no reason to double it out of Larkin's hands. He ain't that good, at least not yet.

As far as Duke's path to the 2. I think I'd prefer UVA at the 2 if it meant no NC State/Miami in the semi's. Not that UVA isn't a tough team and NC State has no depth but I'd much prefer UVA still.

Mabdul Doobakus
02-20-2013, 01:18 AM
A lot of bitterness towards Miami up in here. I think their success is good for the ACC and therefore good for Duke. Not saying people should be pulling for them to win or anything, but I also don't understand what's leading people to conclude with certainty that they're going to drop out of the tournament before the Sweet 16. Based on what?

Also, they're 4-26 from 3 pt range over the last 2 games with most of those being pretty wide open looks. Sometimes shots just don't fall, as am sure any Duke fan would understand. If they just hit their season average from 3, then these games aren't quite as close.

sporthenry
02-20-2013, 01:54 AM
A lot of bitterness towards Miami up in here. I think their success is good for the ACC and therefore good for Duke. Not saying people should be pulling for them to win or anything, but I also don't understand what's leading people to conclude with certainty that they're going to drop out of the tournament before the Sweet 16. Based on what?

Also, they're 4-26 from 3 pt range over the last 2 games with most of those being pretty wide open looks. Sometimes shots just don't fall, as am sure any Duke fan would understand. If they just hit their season average from 3, then these games aren't quite as close.

Well they've been very fortunate in some recent games and yet, everyone is jumping on their band wagon and saying how underrated they are and such even though they they were #3 in the country last week. How they are undefeated in the ACC, how they are the hottest team in the country or undefeated with their starting line up. If Clemson or UVA closes one of these games out like UMD did, all of a sudden, Miami is like the rest of the top 10 with a bad loss on their resume recently. I think they are a very complete team but am on record of saying that they have some fatal flaws that will surface in March. And because of that, I must root against them for my prediction to come true. Not to mention, they haven't really been playing well as of late.

I won't say with any certainty that they'll lose in the 2nd round, I think most of the potential 1 seeds could, especially with some of these potential 8/9 seeds. But these are the types of games that will be tough for a team with no NCAA experience. Not used to the 2 day turn around, or the atmosphere, pressure starts to mount up and Miami seems to play up or down to their competition. When the other team doesn't have a Duke or UNC jersey on, Miami almost looks disinterested at times.

As far as their 3 point shot, they only shot 7 3's in this game. Sure they only hit 1, but 7 is a small sample size. If they hit their season average it would have given them another basket or maybe 2 but not enough to make this game into a blowout. Not to mention, if a Duke fan knows anything, it is that these season percentages especially from 3 mean nothing come NCAA tournament.

And Duke fans on the whole aren't very happy with how things went down in Coral Gables last time. Between floor slapping and showing them up, I know the players have talked about the return match-up. And they still have hopes for an ACC regular season title so a loss tonight would have opened the door. And a loss by Miami puts Duke closer to a 1 seed.

dukelifer
02-20-2013, 05:34 AM
Also, Maryland follows up the upset of us with....a loss to lowly (3-9 ACC) BC. Yeah, it's at BC (and yeah, I know we were lucky to win up there) but...jeez. And of course, Alex Len has all of 4pts in this one.

Ugh, I'm still mad about the way we played at MD :mad:

Predictable - Teams get up for Duke and cannot for the rest if the league. One can only hope that this continues for MD so they limp into the NIT.

Indoor66
02-20-2013, 06:59 AM
Shows the value of dangerous playmakers - Virginia was sufficiently terrified of both Larkin and Kadji that they left Johnson wide open.

Another illustration of the Ryan Kelly factor for a team. Worry about Kelly and Seth and Mason kills you. Select your combination to closely guard and the third is open. That is our missing link.

FerryFor50
02-20-2013, 07:57 AM
A lot of bitterness towards Miami up in here. I think their success is good for the ACC and therefore good for Duke. Not saying people should be pulling for them to win or anything, but I also don't understand what's leading people to conclude with certainty that they're going to drop out of the tournament before the Sweet 16. Based on what?

Also, they're 4-26 from 3 pt range over the last 2 games with most of those being pretty wide open looks. Sometimes shots just don't fall, as am sure any Duke fan would understand. If they just hit their season average from 3, then these games aren't quite as close.

I think it's based on the fact that this Miami team looks an awful lot like some Duke teams that took early exits in years past - the live by the 3 mentality, the close, seemingly undeserved wins, struggling against much lesser opponents, etc.

I think they're a good team - just like those Duke teams were good teams - but they don't seem championship caliber, or even Elite 8 caliber. But that's why they play the games, right? :)

ChillinDuke
02-20-2013, 08:15 AM
I think it's based on the fact that this Miami team looks an awful lot like some Duke teams that took early exits in years past - the live by the 3 mentality, the close, seemingly undeserved wins, struggling against much lesser opponents, etc.

I think they're a good team - just like those Duke teams were good teams - but they don't seem championship caliber, or even Elite 8 caliber. But that's why they play the games, right? :)

Yes.

And to be sure, we thought those Duke teams could make runs in those tourneys. So can this Miami team.

Folks, Miami is good. Winning close games is part of the deal. We do it, they do it. Everyone does it.

I'm just as bitter as the next guy at getting our feces handed to us by them in Coral Gables. And I hope like heck that we hand them theirs in Cameron.

But at the end of the day, both us and them will have our shots come March.

- Chillin

Mabdul Doobakus
02-20-2013, 09:44 AM
Well they've been very fortunate in some recent games and yet, everyone is jumping on their band wagon and saying how underrated they are and such even though they they were #3 in the country last week. How they are undefeated in the ACC, how they are the hottest team in the country or undefeated with their starting line up. If Clemson or UVA closes one of these games out like UMD did, all of a sudden, Miami is like the rest of the top 10 with a bad loss on their resume recently. I think they are a very complete team but am on record of saying that they have some fatal flaws that will surface in March. And because of that, I must root against them for my prediction to come true. Not to mention, they haven't really been playing well as of late.

I won't say with any certainty that they'll lose in the 2nd round, I think most of the potential 1 seeds could, especially with some of these potential 8/9 seeds. But these are the types of games that will be tough for a team with no NCAA experience. Not used to the 2 day turn around, or the atmosphere, pressure starts to mount up and Miami seems to play up or down to their competition. When the other team doesn't have a Duke or UNC jersey on, Miami almost looks disinterested at times.

As far as their 3 point shot, they only shot 7 3's in this game. Sure they only hit 1, but 7 is a small sample size. If they hit their season average it would have given them another basket or maybe 2 but not enough to make this game into a blowout. Not to mention, if a Duke fan knows anything, it is that these season percentages especially from 3 mean nothing come NCAA tournament.

And Duke fans on the whole aren't very happy with how things went down in Coral Gables last time. Between floor slapping and showing them up, I know the players have talked about the return match-up. And they still have hopes for an ACC regular season title so a loss tonight would have opened the door. And a loss by Miami puts Duke closer to a 1 seed.

For every person who calls Miami underrated there is a person (like yourself) who calls them overrated. I have seen people peg Miami as their favorites (e.g., Digger Phelps), but I haven't really hard anyone peg them as far out ahead of the field. I would argue they're in the mix with another 8-10 teams, and that they're appropriately rated.

I do not see the fatal flaw in this team. I am actually curious as to what you might think it is. Maybe FT shooting? That could certainly be a problem...I mean they were terrible in last night's game at the line until the very end of the game, and it nearly cost them a game. But...they haven't lost since some time in 2012, so I don't know how you could necessarily say it's fatal. They shoot 66%. If, for example, they shot 72% like Duke, it would amount to an extra point a game. However, they also do not seem to go to the line as much as Duke, or as much as many other ACC teams, for whatever reason and for whatever that's worth. I don't see any other real glaring flaw, but I might be missing something.

Someone else suggested Miami lives and dies by the 3, and therefore is prone to upset. I don't think this is true at all. They're 5th in the ACC in 3's attempted. As you mentioned, they shot all of 7 last night. Obviously, 3 point percentage is hugely important in determining your chance of winning a game, and from game-to-game the variations in that percentage are largely due to luck, so yes, Miami in all likelihood will have a game or two where the shots don't fall, and they will be prone to upset. Like pretty much any other team this year. But Miami has plenty of other ways to beat you.

We'll see how much the lack of NCAA experience matters in the end. We know they have a lot of game experience, but obviously not a lot NCAA experience. It's hard to argue too much about these intangibles. We've seen teams without NCAA experience do quite well in the tournament, and we've seen a lot of similar teams flame out.

And, for the record, I hope Duke DOES beat Miami in early March. I'm a fan of both teams, but would never root against Duke in Cameron. As a Miami fan and native, I'm pretty much immune to the displays of arrogance--it's just par for the course--but I could certainly see how it would upset other people.

CDu
02-20-2013, 09:56 AM
For every person who calls Miami underrated there is a person (like yourself) who calls them overrated. I have seen people peg Miami as their favorites (e.g., Digger Phelps), but I haven't really hard anyone peg them as far out ahead of the field. I would argue they're in the mix with another 8-10 teams, and that they're appropriately rated.

I do not see the fatal flaw in this team. I am actually curious as to what you might think it is. Maybe FT shooting? That could certainly be a problem...I mean they were terrible in last night's game at the line until the very end of the game, and it nearly cost them a game. But...they haven't lost since some time in 2012, so I don't know how you could necessarily say it's fatal. They shoot 66%. If, for example, they shot 72% like Duke, it would amount to an extra point a game. However, they also do not seem to go to the line as much as Duke, or as much as many other ACC teams, for whatever reason and for whatever that's worth. I don't see any other real glaring flaw, but I might be missing something.

Someone else suggested Miami lives and dies by the 3, and therefore is prone to upset. I don't think this is true at all. They're 5th in the ACC in 3's attempted. As you mentioned, they shot all of 7 last night. Obviously, 3 point percentage is hugely important in determining your chance of winning a game, and from game-to-game the variations in that percentage are largely due to luck, so yes, Miami in all likelihood will have a game or two where the shots don't fall, and they will be prone to upset. Like pretty much any other team this year. But Miami has plenty of other ways to beat you.

We'll see how much the lack of NCAA experience matters in the end. We know they have a lot of game experience, but obviously not a lot NCAA experience. It's hard to argue too much about these intangibles. We've seen teams without NCAA experience do quite well in the tournament, and we've seen a lot of similar teams flame out.

And, for the record, I hope Duke DOES beat Miami in early March. I'm a fan of both teams, but would never root against Duke in Cameron. As a Miami fan and native, I'm pretty much immune to the displays of arrogance--it's just par for the course--but I could certainly see how it would upset other people.

The only questions with Miami are of shot selection/decision making and the effectiveness of Scott and Kadji. If those two guys are struggling, Miami can struggle offensively. If those two guys are playing well and guys like Rion Brown aren't shooting them out of games, they are VERY tough to beat.

Is Miami a world-beater? No. Are they legitimately one of the best teams in the country? Yes.

Billy Dat
02-20-2013, 10:12 AM
Miami's schedule is really favorable coming down the stretch. It would have been interesting if they had a collection of games against bubble teams on the road but, aside from us, they are playing lower tier ACC teams at home. I think it helped them to not become a "national story" until relatively recently. Had they been top 5 a month ago, the massive increase in media attention, interview requests and the like may have impacted them. Aside from winning their first ACC regular season, I do think that running the table in the conference is an amazing accomplishment. Hopefully we can stand in the way of that.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-20-2013, 11:13 AM
Miami seems to be a team that gets up for big games (clearly) and has enough horses to get past the mediocre ACC teams.

I'd say Miami has as good a shot as anyone else does. In a season that has seen everyone in the top ten doing cartwheels and backflips to reconfigure after losses each week, Miami hasn't lost since Christmas Day. In fact, two games by a total of three points since November 13th.

They are doing what it takes to win games. If they hadn't taken us behind the woodshed at their house, I'd see them as a great story and a very good omen for the ACC moving forward. Instead, I just can't wait for them to get to Durham. This was supposed to be NC State's year (again) but Miami certainly has taken advantage of a great team, very good coaching, and some great senior leadership.

The entire NCAA field is more wide open than I can ever remember. It seems like a great year for an underdog to pull off a couple of wins. I'll bet there will be at least one FF team that doesn't come from the usual suspects.... either a seed above a 4 or someone from a non-power conference. Maybe a couple, who knows.

The Hurricanes are having a great year, and they are "choosing" the right time to do it. Having this sort of run in this sort of year can change the national perception of a program. Having them emerge on the scene before the new schools arrive in the ACC may keep them in contention for the upper tier of the league ahead of some of the other programs in the ACC that are struggling to keep up.

And, of course, it gives people something to talk about that isn't NCAA investigations.

Anyways, let's whoop 'em in Durham and then again in the ACC Finals. Go Duke!

pfrduke
02-20-2013, 12:34 PM
Miami seems to be a team that gets up for big games (clearly) and has enough horses to get past the mediocre ACC teams.

I'd say Miami has as good a shot as anyone else does. In a season that has seen everyone in the top ten doing cartwheels and backflips to reconfigure after losses each week, Miami hasn't lost since Christmas Day. In fact, two games by a total of three points since November 13th.

They are doing what it takes to win games. If they hadn't taken us behind the woodshed at their house, I'd see them as a great story and a very good omen for the ACC moving forward. Instead, I just can't wait for them to get to Durham. This was supposed to be NC State's year (again) but Miami certainly has taken advantage of a great team, very good coaching, and some great senior leadership.

The entire NCAA field is more wide open than I can ever remember. It seems like a great year for an underdog to pull off a couple of wins. I'll bet there will be at least one FF team that doesn't come from the usual suspects.... either a seed above a 4 or someone from a non-power conference. Maybe a couple, who knows.

The Hurricanes are having a great year, and they are "choosing" the right time to do it. Having this sort of run in this sort of year can change the national perception of a program. Having them emerge on the scene before the new schools arrive in the ACC may keep them in contention for the upper tier of the league ahead of some of the other programs in the ACC that are struggling to keep up.

And, of course, it gives people something to talk about that isn't NCAA investigations.

Anyways, let's whoop 'em in Durham and then again in the ACC Finals. Go Duke!

Miami got blown out by Arizona. That was a 19-point loss all on its own.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-20-2013, 01:15 PM
Miami got blown out by Arizona. That was a 19-point loss all on its own.

Oh jeez. Joke's on me. I read that 59-60, not 50-69. That is, in fact, a bit different.

Well then, since December 23rd, they've lost one game by a total of one point.

Bah.

go Duke!

sporthenry
02-20-2013, 01:45 PM
I do not see the fatal flaw in this team. I am actually curious as to what you might think it is. Maybe FT shooting? That could certainly be a problem...I mean they were terrible in last night's game at the line until the very end of the game, and it nearly cost them a game. But...they haven't lost since some time in 2012, so I don't know how you could necessarily say it's fatal. They shoot 66%. If, for example, they shot 72% like Duke, it would amount to an extra point a game. However, they also do not seem to go to the line as much as Duke, or as much as many other ACC teams, for whatever reason and for whatever that's worth. I don't see any other real glaring flaw, but I might be missing something.

We'll see how much the lack of NCAA experience matters in the end. We know they have a lot of game experience, but obviously not a lot NCAA experience. It's hard to argue too much about these intangibles. We've seen teams without NCAA experience do quite well in the tournament, and we've seen a lot of similar teams flame out.


Well these two would be two of the flaws. As far as FT shooting, Duke has their 3 starting guards over 80%. Their % is brought down by Mason while Miami only has 1 guy above 80% (Jones). And they just seem inconsistent. Last night, they were 9-16, versus Clemson they were 6-7 while versus FSU they were 11-19.

And this inconsistency is sort of what I think is their fatal flaw. They don't always seem to show up. They are used to being hunters. How will they handle all this praise? They haven't done too well with it if you think the last 2 games are any indication of it. Yes, they are experienced in terms of age, but I think there is a such thing as meaningful experience. Combine the lack of NCAAT and the lack of focus and I'm just not sold.

I'm not saying they are bad, I'd put them right there with teams like Duke (with Kelly) Syracuse, or even Kansas, I just don't think they are a top team, although I guess after recent events nobody is really a top team.

CDu
02-20-2013, 02:19 PM
I'm not saying they are bad, I'd put them right there with teams like Duke (with Kelly) Syracuse, or even Kansas, I just don't think they are a top team, although I guess after recent events nobody is really a top team.

That's the thing. In many other years, they wouldn't be a top team. But there just aren't many (if any) clear top teams. Everybody this year has warts. Indiana is probably the closest thing to a clear top team (maybe us if Kelly comes back and fits in), but even they lost to an overrated Butler team (which is similar to our road loss to Maryland).

Miami is probably about as good as anyone in the country. But anyone in the country could lose in the first or second round of the tournament this year.

OldSchool
02-20-2013, 02:56 PM
Miamiís last three games:

Florida State: FSU with the ball down by only 3 with 25 seconds left (paging Michael Snaer -- oops, must have had his pager off)

Clemson: Clemson up by 2 with less than a minute left.

Virginia: Tie game with 14 seconds left.

If the ball bounces differently a couple of times in these games, Miami might well be 0-3 in their last three games. But, hats off to the Canes for pulling them out.

How did these three teams, none of them top 25 teams, play Miami basically even?

On defense, they simply did a good job of staying in front of the Miami guards. Especially Virginia. The guards were not always out gambling on a steal 30 feet from the basket or letting themselves get blown by thinking the center will clean things up.

Make Miami work in the half-court offense and make them take jump shots.

If Miami goes far in the NCAAs, it will be by winning close games. The games are played tighter, better defense, less transition than in regular season games.

sagegrouse
02-20-2013, 03:51 PM
Also, Maryland follows up the upset of us with....a loss to lowly (3-9 ACC) BC. Yeah, it's at BC (and yeah, I know we were lucky to win up there) but...jeez. And of course, Alex Len has all of 4pts in this one.

Ugh, I'm still mad about the way we played at MD :mad:


What a WEIRD box in the MD-BC game. MD made 10 threes but only 10 two point FG's for the entire game. They got 8 FT's to go in and so only scored 58 point (on 10 made 3's???)

BC fared only slightly better with 15 made two point baskets and a reasonable-seeming 6 threes and yet they managed to score 69 points. Shooting 21-22 from the FT line - as BC did - will help for sure!

I'm sorry, but that's just a WEIRD game :eek:

Surely, surely (Mod: "Don't call me Shirley." SG: "I didn't -- my beak is full of sage leaves.") no one is surprised that Maryland went up to BC and laid a big old turtle egg. Moreover, I hear the joint was only half-full and not at all hostile.

Turgeon, by the way, has been publcily critical of his team, even -- as we saw -- during the Duke game. "Lot of turnovers? That's just us," saith he to the ESPN courtside reporter at halftime. From many miles away, the Maryland team looks like a team that needs its ego stroked. Gary Williams would scream like a banshee at his bench DURING the game, but was very supportive in public statements.

The Terps are playing decently without a single experienced point guard or capable ballhandler. And, while I was airborne during the Md-BC game and did not see it, I assume the Eagles employed their "Mason Plumlee defense" by double-teaming the post. So, players not names Alex Len needed to step up. One did -- the senior transfer, Logan Aronholt. The others did not. And Maryland got outscored by 17-18 the second half. "Way to fumble away a chance at an NCAA bid, you bunch of turkey-tles," I say.

Maryland needs to right the ship. Wait, that doesn't sound right: Wright the ship? Write the ship? Rite the ship? Wreck the ship? Writhe in the [turtle] soup? Anyway, there are five games left, and the 6-7 Terps probably need to win four of them: Clemson and UNC at home; GT, Wake and UVa on the road. Or win three of five and then win two games at the ACCs.

sagegrouse

NSDukeFan
02-20-2013, 04:21 PM
Yes.

And to be sure, we thought those Duke teams could make runs in those tourneys. So can this Miami team.

Folks, Miami is good. Winning close games is part of the deal. We do it, they do it. Everyone does it.

I'm just as bitter as the next guy at getting our feces handed to us by them in Coral Gables. And I hope like heck that we hand them theirs in Cameron.

But at the end of the day, both us and them will have our shots come March.

- Chillin

I have now gone over to the believer side when it comes to Miami. They might not have looked like world beaters in their tight wins lately, but they have clearly gained confidence in their ability to get a win even if they haven't played their best. Duke has often had and has that skill and I believe it increases your chances at successful tournament runs. I would not be shocked by any NCAA tournament result by Miami, from being the first top seed to lose in the first round to being an unlikely champion. I could say the same for any of the top ten teams. It should be an entertaining March Madness.

davekay1971
02-20-2013, 06:18 PM
And that's a deeply disturbing thought.

But here it is: Ever since 'Ol Roy, Hall-of-Fame coaching genius that he is, started reading DBR and listening to our excellent advice, UNC's been on something of a roll. First they outperformed expectations against Duke, then they shot a pretty good UVa team out of the gym at the Dump on the Hump, then they went to Atlanta and beat a sorry Ga Tech team (and I'm not discrediting that win...we all know about how easy it is to beat anyone on the road this season).

Now State, who's motto is "Doing Things the Easy Way is For Wimps", goes into Chapa Heeya. This is the same State team that throttled UNC for 30 minutes in Raleigh before falling asleep for the last 10 minutes and nearly allowing UNC to score one of the more monumental comeback wins in Tobacco Road history. State needs the win. A win at the Dump would make them a virtual tournament lock given how winnable their remaining home games are. It would give them a sweep over those arrogant Heels and make a statement about which program is currently on top. But then, UNC probably needs the win more. If UNC wins, they're firmly on the inside of the bubble looking out.

But, here's the juicy thought: If UNC loses...

Then they are the little brother to the Pack, at least for this year.
They are the 3rd best team in the Triangle, at least for this year.
They are still on the bubble, with the following remaining schedule:
@Clemson
FSU
@ Maryland
Duke

8-6 in the ACC with every chance of going 1-3 over their last four to finish 9-9...

It all depends on State.

And isn't that a terrifying thought?

Duvall
02-20-2013, 06:19 PM
It all depends on State.

And isn't that a terrifying thought?

For whom? Failing in this kind of moment is the essence of NC Stateness.

davekay1971
02-20-2013, 06:21 PM
For whom? Failing in this kind of moment is the essence of NC Stateness.

For State fans and ABC fans, of course. If you're a Tar Heel fan, you may be a little nervous about the idea of getting swept by the vastly inferior State college down the road...but deep down you probably feel like history, and NC Stateness, as you so perfectly put it, are on your side.

pfrduke
02-20-2013, 06:27 PM
And the new and improved UNC lineup should give matchup advantages to NCSU. PJ Hairston will have to guard either CJ Leslie or Richard Howell, both all-ACC caliber post players. That's a matchup that State should dominate. On defense, Leslie should be able to chase Hairston around well enough to frustrate him (and Leslie's length can help him compensate for quickness deficits).

davekay1971
02-20-2013, 06:44 PM
And the new and improved UNC lineup should give matchup advantages to NCSU. PJ Hairston will have to guard either CJ Leslie or Richard Howell, both all-ACC caliber post players. That's a matchup that State should dominate. On defense, Leslie should be able to chase Hairston around well enough to frustrate him (and Leslie's length can help him compensate for quickness deficits).

I suspect Roy may actually go back to a bigger lineup given State's size. The Hairston-Leslie (or Bullock-Leslie) matchup favors State, but the McAdoo-Howell matchup is a disaster for UNC when UNC is on defense. McAdoo simply isn't strong enough to contain Howell, unless State fans are right and Howell walks into the Dean Dome with two fouls. We saw what happened when Mason started to back McAdoo down...and Howell is even stronger than Mason.

I think Roy may put McAdoo on Leslie, put a rotating stiff on Howell and Hack-A-Howell. But, if that's the case, look for Roy to start Hairston over Strickland (shock!) and force State to figure out how to defend both Hairston and Bullock on the court at the same time.

devildeac
02-20-2013, 06:58 PM
And the new and improved UNC lineup should give matchup advantages to NCSU. PJ Hairston will have to guard either CJ Leslie or Richard Howell, both all-ACC caliber post players. That's a matchup that State should dominate. On defense, Leslie should be able to chase Hairston around well enough to frustrate him (and Leslie's length can help him compensate for quickness deficits).


I suspect Roy may actually go back to a bigger lineup given State's size. The Hairston-Leslie (or Bullock-Leslie) matchup favors State, but the McAdoo-Howell matchup is a disaster for UNC when UNC is on defense. McAdoo simply isn't strong enough to contain Howell, unless State fans are right and Howell walks into the Dean Dome with two fouls. We saw what happened when Mason started to back McAdoo down...and Howell is even stronger than Mason.

I think Roy may put McAdoo on Leslie, put a rotating stiff on Howell and Hack-A-Howell. But, if that's the case, look for Roy to start Hairston over Strickland (shock!) and force State to figure out how to defend both Hairston and Bullock on the court at the same time.


Some of it will also depend on how many fouls Howell and Calvin accrue on their bus ride from Raleigh over to the Dump:rolleyes:.

newclasspack
02-20-2013, 07:32 PM
IF TJ warren can continue this level of play.. this should be a win for us.

Newton_14
02-20-2013, 09:15 PM
IF TJ warren can continue this level of play.. this should be a win for us.

It's going to take more than that unfortunately. You guys are going to have to play defense, especially on the perimeter. Come out flat and you will be down 10 or 15 before the halfway point of the first half. State has to come out with high energy, looking to score in transition early an often. In the halfcourt, they have to pound it inside to Howell, Leslie, and Warren. Warren should be able to post any defender UNC puts on him. They also need to work hard to get Wood good looks, and as many attempts as possible. You have enough weapons to make it very difficult for UNC to keep all in check. If UNC puts a lot of focus on shutting down your interior players, Wood and Brown can make them pay dearly, if the ball movement is crisp and sharp.

On defense, you just have to make Hairston and Bullock take tough shots and not give them easy, open looks. UNC does not have the weapons to score effectively on your frontline unless the refs decide to hamstring your bigs with foul trouble.

My biggest fear is State comes out flat and lethargic, gets down, and then gets frustrated. If that happens it will be a long day.

As for Ol Roy, I think he sticks with the current small lineup and rides it as long as he can afford to. If State starts abusing them in the paint, he will panic and go back to the two bigs lineup, meaning one of his best players has to sit. I think history has shown it won't be Dexter heading to the pine either.

State just needs to come to play, keep the foot on the pedal for 40 minutes and give unc the beat down they deserve!

devildeac
02-20-2013, 09:16 PM
IF TJ warren can continue this level of play.. this should be a win for us.

We'll hold you to that;).

newclasspack
02-20-2013, 09:22 PM
It's going to take more than that unfortunately. You guys are going to have to play defense, especially on the perimeter. Come out flat and you will be down 10 or 15 before the halfway point of the first half. State has to come out with high energy, looking to score in transition early an often. In the halfcourt, they have to pound it inside to Howell, Leslie, and Warren. Warren should be able to post any defender UNC puts on him. They also need to work hard to get Wood good looks, and as many attempts as possible. You have enough weapons to make it very difficult for UNC to keep all in check. If UNC puts a lot of focus on shutting down your interior players, Wood and Brown can make them pay dearly, if the ball movement is crisp and sharp.

On defense, you just have to make Hairston and Bullock take tough shots and not give them easy, open looks. UNC does not have the weapons to score effectively on your frontline unless the refs decide to hamstring your bigs with foul trouble.

My biggest fear is State comes out flat and lethargic, gets down, and then gets frustrated. If that happens it will be a long day.

As for Ol Roy, I think he sticks with the current small lineup and rides it as long as he can afford to. If State starts abusing them in the paint, he will panic and go back to the two bigs lineup, meaning one of his best players has to sit. I think history has shown it won't be Dexter heading to the pine either.

State just needs to come to play, keep the foot on the pedal for 40 minutes and give unc the beat down they deserve!Brown HATES UNC. and as he goes we go.. that's why i'm not worried about that aspect.

davekay1971
02-21-2013, 06:41 AM
IF TJ warren can continue this level of play.. this should be a win for us.

TJ Warren has somehow put together one of the quietest really impressive freshman years I can remember. The kid never ever gets talked about, but he's been fantastic. Even within a game, I hardly seem to notice him, then he's got 20 points. And, depending on the lineup, he can be a pretty nasty matchup problem for UNC. JMM would naturally match him up pretty well, but if JMM is busy chasing around CJL or (and I really really want to see this) trying to bang with Howell, I don't think anyone else in UNC's lineup can do much against Warren.

The bottom line is: This SHOULD be a win for you if the majority of your players come to play. UNC has talent, but State has more talent, and State has much better balanced talent. You have a great PG in Brown, a great scoring guard in Purvis, one of the ACC's top 10 all time three point specialists in Wood, a great inside-outside guy in Warren, a potentially great (depending on the day and the phase of the moon) power forward in Leslie, and a blue-collar center that brings it every night. Which is why, for those of us who cheer for State, their tendency to just not put it all together is so frustrating. They should definitely beat UNC, like a rented mule, on any court. But will they play up to their abilities on Saturday?

CDu
02-21-2013, 07:38 AM
NC State should have a huge edge at PG, PF, and C. UNC could have the edge at SG and SF. If Calvin shows up and not CJ, if Howell stays out of foul trouble, and if Brown comes to play, State should win. If they play even just a little defense on the perimeter, State should win comfortably.

Of course, State has rarely shown the desire to defend for long stretches, Leslie is so mercurial, and Howell is always a threat for foul trouble on the road. So who knows what will actually happen.

nocilla
02-21-2013, 07:52 AM
I suspect Roy may actually go back to a bigger lineup given State's size. The Hairston-Leslie (or Bullock-Leslie) matchup favors State, but the McAdoo-Howell matchup is a disaster for UNC when UNC is on defense. McAdoo simply isn't strong enough to contain Howell, unless State fans are right and Howell walks into the Dean Dome with two fouls. We saw what happened when Mason started to back McAdoo down...and Howell is even stronger than Mason.

I think Roy may put McAdoo on Leslie, put a rotating stiff on Howell and Hack-A-Howell. But, if that's the case, look for Roy to start Hairston over Strickland (shock!) and force State to figure out how to defend both Hairston and Bullock on the court at the same time.

I think we might see what we saw in the UNC-Duke game. Mason tried to bull his way to the basket in the first half and McAdoo flopped around to get the charge call. In the second half, Mason adjusted and started using more of a finese game, hook shots. Can McAdoo draw the offensive fouls on Howell and Leslie? If not, I think NCSU wins easily.

CDu
02-21-2013, 08:17 AM
I think we might see what we saw in the UNC-Duke game. Mason tried to bull his way to the basket in the first half and McAdoo flopped around to get the charge call. In the second half, Mason adjusted and started using more of a finese game, hook shots. Can McAdoo draw the offensive fouls on Howell and Leslie? If not, I think NCSU wins easily.

I'm quite sure that UNC's approach will be to flop in the post. They are going to be undersized whether they play four wings or two post players, so the best chance they have inside is to flop. Now, the question will be whether Howell is patient and does his work posting up before getting the ball, or whether he settles to get the ball outside and then try to bull his way to the rim. If he does the former, he should avoid foul trouble. If he does the latter, he might draw some cheap ones.

The thing about Howell, though, is that State doesn't actually have to run plays for him. He gets tons of work on the glass. So State could run the post offense through Leslie (who tries to go around his man and thus doesn't commit many charges) and let Howell mop up on the glass. In fact, that would be my plan A for post offense, unless Leslie gets out of control.

subzero02
02-21-2013, 09:25 AM
Xavier in 2004. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_10_Men's_Basketball_Tournament)

You may recall that this Xavier team made the Elite Eight, where they lost to a team that should have won the title. :mad:

I actually stayed in the same hotel as Xavier for their 1st and 2nd round games in Orlando... that was a very scrappy team. I will never forget the tip-in that Deng had late in our game against them.

newclasspack
02-21-2013, 11:41 AM
I'm quite sure that UNC's approach will be to flop in the post. They are going to be undersized whether they play four wings or two post players, so the best chance they have inside is to flop. Now, the question will be whether Howell is patient and does his work posting up before getting the ball, or whether he settles to get the ball outside and then try to bull his way to the rim. If he does the former, he should avoid foul trouble. If he does the latter, he might draw some cheap ones.

The thing about Howell, though, is that State doesn't actually have to run plays for him. He gets tons of work on the glass. So State could run the post offense through Leslie (who tries to go around his man and thus doesn't commit many charges) and let Howell mop up on the glass. In fact, that would be my plan A for post offense, unless Leslie gets out of control.
Leslie has been called for a travel on his post spin a lot recently... which i mean sometimes it is.. but alot of the time because he does it so quickly it looks like a travel and is not.

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 06:45 AM
IF TJ warren can continue this level of play.. this should be a win for us.

State is the more experienced and talented team, but that doesn't mean they will win. State is still State. They almost blew their big lead in the first game in Raleigh.
Richard Howell and C.J. Leslie should be able to dominate inside against either Carolina's small line-up or their inexperienced bigger players. Both recorded a double double in the first game. Leslie had 17 & 10, while Howell chipped in 16 & 14. Keeping these two out of foul trouble and on the court should be priority number one.

Vegas likes Carolina favoring the Heels by 5.5 points with the over/under set at 158 which equates to a score in the neighborhood of 82-76:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/north-carolina-state

Lauren Brownlow at the ACC Sports Journal predicts an 87-82 victory for the Heels, but what does she know? It's not like she is a DBR regular or anything:

http://www.accsports.com/teams/north-carolina/2013022214824/acc-weekend-preview-feb-22.php

I am expecting an entertaining game and will be rooting for the Woofies; however, I'm not getting my hopes up and I certainly wouldn't take them in any sort of wager. The game is in Chapel Hill and State is State!

moonpie23
02-23-2013, 08:20 AM
just thought this deserved it's own thread..



if State wins, is unc back on the bubble?


mods, feel free to move to the "this week" thread if you wish

Furniture
02-23-2013, 08:23 AM
Looking forward to this one.....

davekay1971
02-23-2013, 08:52 AM
if State wins, is unc back on the bubble?

With this one loss, UNC would probably still be on the inside of the bubble. But they can't afford to drop this game. The remainder of their schedule is challenging.

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 09:00 AM
With this one loss, UNC would probably still be on the inside of the bubble. But they can't afford to drop this game. The remainder of their schedule is challenging.

Carolina is 3-4 in ACC road games to date with their last two road games being @Clemson and @Maryland. They are home against FSU and Duke. If they lose today and split their last four they would finish 10-8 in the conference, which is probably good enough. A win today is important, but I do not believe a loss would be fatal.

Carolina will be dancing in March.

El_Diablo
02-23-2013, 11:46 AM
UNC by 10. Pack fans complain loudly about the free throw discrepancy. Sun sets in the west.

You know, the usual.

timmy c
02-23-2013, 12:09 PM
UNC by 10. Pack fans complain loudly about the free throw discrepancy. Sun sets in the west.

You know, the usual.

If the heels get to the line more than the pack than they'll have earned the win by attacking in transition and in half court. This season there are 332 teams in D-1 who get a higher percentage of there points from the FT line than UNC. Two reasons for that 1) they are a jump shooting team that draws few fouls 2) they shoot less than 66% as a team.

UNC will need to play solid interior defense and shoot a decent percentage from beyond the 3. If both teams play well, FT's will determine the outcome. I'll guess that NC ST wins by 3.

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 12:40 PM
Wake is taking it to Miami so far. 30-19 with 5 left in the first half.

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 12:41 PM
Wake Forest 32, Miami 21. The 'Canes look awful. Their offense is lethargic. Reggie Johnson is all out of sync missing jump hooks and fumbling the ball. Trey McKinney-Jones just took a hard fall and is still down, hopefully he is okay.

matt1
02-23-2013, 12:44 PM
just thought this deserved it's own thread..



if State wins, is unc back on the bubble?


mods, feel free to move to the "this week" thread if you wish

I have UNC in comfortably as a 9 seed right now. The worry for them is not losing to a team like State, but losing to a lowly team (like Miami is trying to do right now).

timmy c
02-23-2013, 12:47 PM
Carolina is 3-4 in ACC road games to date with their last two road games being @Clemson and @Maryland. They are home against FSU and Duke. If they lose today and split their last four they would finish 10-8 in the conference, which is probably good enough. A win today is important, but I do not believe a loss would be fatal.

Carolina will be dancing in March.

Bob, I agree that a loss today won't be fatal. However, the bubble is a fluid situation and wins from teams like Villanova or Kentucky today, although unlikely, would make UNC's situation more intriguing.

I am hoping for a little bit of UNC bubble drama.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-23-2013, 12:52 PM
Miami down 13 at the half... might make this regular season race interesting if they fell back to the pack just a bit before they visit our house.

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 12:53 PM
Bob, I agree that a loss today won't be fatal. However, the bubble is a fluid situation and wins from teams like Villanova or Kentucky today, although unlikely, would make UNC's situation more intriguing.

I am hoping for a little bit of UNC bubble drama.

Good point, every team's performance effects more than just themselves. UNC bubble drama would be entertaining.

It's halftime in Winston-Salem with Wake up 42-29. Kadji and Larkin made back-to-back 3 pointers as Miami cut Wakes' lead to 13.

dball
02-23-2013, 12:58 PM
42-29 at the half, Wake ahead

JasonEvans
02-23-2013, 01:29 PM
Miami seems to be a team that gets up for big games (clearly) and has enough horses to get past the mediocre ACC teams.

They are putting those "horses" to the test right now!

--Jason "how often have we posted an 'upset alert' on Miami and come up short this year!?!?!" Evans

newclasspack
02-23-2013, 01:34 PM
They are putting those "horses" to the test right now!

--Jason "how often have we posted an 'upset alert' on Miami and come up short this year!?!?!" Evans
Wake is playing like they have a capable coach right now... They are gonna slay the dragon

Furniture
02-23-2013, 01:35 PM
I thought Wake were going to give up there for a few mins.
Great performance!!

JasonEvans
02-23-2013, 01:38 PM
Wake is playing like they have a capable coach right now... They are gonna slay the dragon

Folks, there are still 7 minutes left in this thing. Lets not jump to any conclusions!

-JE

newclasspack
02-23-2013, 01:40 PM
47 - 63

if wake can pull jay wright from Nova

they will have the coaching to back p their talent

burnspbesq
02-23-2013, 01:42 PM
Deacs up 16 with six minutes to go. Game is on ESPN3.

Durham Thunder
02-23-2013, 01:42 PM
Damn ESPN3! Direct TV doesn't get access!

uh_no
02-23-2013, 01:43 PM
Deacs up 16 with six minutes to go. Game is on ESPN3.

beat me to it!

this is going to make our loss to maryland that much more sad :(

but lets not get ahead of ourselves....miami could still win this one, or lose another one (other than us) and we'd still need to win out

Furniture
02-23-2013, 01:43 PM
Will Wake storm the court?

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 01:43 PM
Damn ESPN3! Direct TV doesn't get access!

It is on ESPN2.

newclasspack
02-23-2013, 01:45 PM
Deacs up 16 with six minutes to go. Game is on ESPN3.and fox sports south for the carolinians

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 01:49 PM
It is on ESPN2.

Damn, I don't even know what channel my own TV is on. I am watching on Comcast Sports Net Mid-Atlantic in Norfolk (Verizon Fios 575).

jv001
02-23-2013, 01:50 PM
Now 16 with 3min

ChicagoCrazy84
02-23-2013, 01:51 PM
Will Wake storm the court?

I'm not a fan of court storming by anyone but this one is certainly worthy. I know I'll be smiling as they pour on the court.

I don't have miami's schedule in front of me, do they have any other road games besides us?

Jarhead
02-23-2013, 01:53 PM
Upset in the making. Wake is apparently handling Miami. Now 71- 55 Little over 2 minutes to go

Durham Thunder
02-23-2013, 01:53 PM
and fox sports south for the carolinians

Thanks, you're a lifesaver! FINALLY Miami's going down, I didn't want to miss it.

JasonEvans
02-23-2013, 01:54 PM
I'm not a fan of court storming by anyone but this one is certainly worthy. I know I'll be smiling as they pour on the court.

I don't have miami's schedule in front of me, do they have any other road games besides us?

You beat the undefeated in conference #2 team in the country, court storming is perfectly fine.

Miami's sked is a cakewalk. They plus us on the road plus have home games with Va Tech, Ga Tech, and Clemson.

-Jason "our game next weekend with them is still huge" Evans

sporthenry
02-23-2013, 02:02 PM
This will cool everyone considerably on Miami. According to Kenpom, worse team than BC. They are in the 130's which is equivalent to some 16 seeds of years past.

I'm not going to completely overreact, I actually like Miami just hated everyone jumping on the bandwagon, but this is 3 straight bad games. Perhaps this puts their head back on straight.

devildeac
02-23-2013, 02:02 PM
Deacs up by 15 with :01 to go. Think they got this one:cool:.

westwall
02-23-2013, 02:03 PM
Wake in a huge win -- 80 to 65

devildeac
02-23-2013, 02:04 PM
Whoever said it earlier that this sure makes our L to md hurt even more sure nailed it:(.

Gthoma2a
02-23-2013, 02:05 PM
Deacs up by 15 with :01 to go. Think they got this one:cool:.

You almost jinxed it! They could have hit the Rock n Jock 25 pointer.

Jarhead
02-23-2013, 02:06 PM
Wake 80, Miami 65.http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/happy/bouncyblue.gif

drcharl
02-23-2013, 02:06 PM
Welcome to the world of the highly ranked.

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 02:06 PM
You beat the undefeated in conference #2 team in the country, court storming is perfectly fine.

Miami's sked is a cakewalk. They plus us on the road plus have home games with Va Tech, Ga Tech, and Clemson.

-Jason "our game next weekend with them is still huge" Evans

Great win for Wake. Just shows you what a week off from playing can do for a team.

Wander
02-23-2013, 02:06 PM
Wake is one of the youngest teams in college basketball. I bet that freshman class makes Wake a pretty good team... just not this year. I'd guess make the NCAAs the next few seasons though.

Boston College in a similar situation. Add in Syracuse and Pitt, and the ACC is going to get much better very soon.

devildeac
02-23-2013, 02:08 PM
31983197

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 02:09 PM
This has been being discussed in the ACC Thread for the past two hours.

Saratoga2
02-23-2013, 02:11 PM
Wake has the elements of a good team and Miami found out the hard way. There is still a lot of work for Duke to catch Miami and some luck would be needed as well, but Miami is also probably out of a #1 tournament seed at this point.

OldPhiKap
02-23-2013, 02:13 PM
FYI, I just rushed my court at home!

We are not out of the regular season race yet!

Durham Thunder
02-23-2013, 02:14 PM
Duke is Miami's last road game for the season. Any chances they slip up and we finish tied for 1st?

loran16
02-23-2013, 02:16 PM
The real question isn't whether Wake will storm the court. It's whether they will "roll the quad", what they call their odd tradition of TPing all the trees on their quad after big wins.

No I don't get it either.

oldnavy
02-23-2013, 02:16 PM
Great game plan by WF. Got the bigs out on the perimeter and you could tell that Miami was out of their comfort zone.

DukieInKansas
02-23-2013, 02:20 PM
Thank you, Demon Deacons!

devildeac
02-23-2013, 02:22 PM
The real question isn't whether Wake will storm the court. It's whether they will "roll the quad", what they call their odd tradition of TPing all the trees on their quad after big wins.

No I don't get it either.

Great. OPK storms his own court and now you give him this brilliant idea. I can't wait to see what his lawn looks like in 30 minutes;):rolleyes:.

3199

roywhite
02-23-2013, 02:37 PM
The 'Canes certainly looked mortal.

ESPN box; Wake 80 -- Miami 65 (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=330540154)

39.1% FG
38.1% 3-pt
53.8% FT

7 assists and 13 turnovers

jdj4duke
02-23-2013, 02:54 PM
Deacs up by 15 with :01 to go. Think they got this one:cool:.

Did they slap the floor?

newclasspack
02-23-2013, 02:57 PM
i know i'm from North carolina But come on ESPN

Basketball > NASCAR

always and forever

chaosmage
02-23-2013, 03:09 PM
I found it interesting that when a UNX player just rotated in to take a charge, it was great rotation. In the VT game with us, it was flopping.

Just sayin' :-P

uh_no
02-23-2013, 03:18 PM
i know i'm from North carolina But come on ESPN

Basketball > NASCAR

always and forever

it's still on since parts of a car went into the stands....i dislike nascar as much as the next person, but that's a huge story...especially if people are hurt or forbid, killed

Furniture
02-23-2013, 03:19 PM
It's on espn news.....

jipops
02-23-2013, 03:20 PM
Now that Roy has caught up to everyone else in figuring out what this UNC team is about, they have a pretty good group. State doesn't seem capable of winning close games so I see UNC taking this one. I also think UNC is the better team at this point in the season.

uh_no
02-23-2013, 03:21 PM
It's on espn news.....

also on ESPN3 for those who have access

jjasper0729
02-23-2013, 03:31 PM
Calvin decided to stay home for this game and sent CJ in his place.

CameronBlue
02-23-2013, 03:35 PM
Calvin decided to stay home for this game and sent CJ in his place.

Just following this one from the box score. CJ with a bucket and 6 turnovers. That's not a bad line if you've just left the drive-thru at KFC.

Dr. Rosenrosen
02-23-2013, 03:35 PM
Pack = Lazy

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 03:36 PM
Calvin decided to stay home for this game and sent CJ in his place.

UNC on a run. State is playing dumb and CJ is leading the way

jjasper0729
02-23-2013, 03:37 PM
howell is a monster on the boards though... 10 in the first half already

DukieInBrasil
02-23-2013, 03:37 PM
And Miami goes down! To Wake!
Wake gave us a tough game in the Joel, but we won by 5 and they lost by 15, so that means we're 20 points better than them, right?

Dr. Rosenrosen
02-23-2013, 03:38 PM
^ you're a few hours behind...

Dr. Rosenrosen
02-23-2013, 03:40 PM
howell is a monster on the boards though... 10 in the first half already

But they're doing nothing with the rebounds except generating more misses and Carolina fast breaks.

jipops
02-23-2013, 03:47 PM
State plays with almost zero poise. There must be something to UNC's defense now. They forced a lot of turnovers on us and and a lot on State.

devildeac
02-23-2013, 03:47 PM
Did they slap the floor?

Good/funny question but slapping Miami was enough;).

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 03:52 PM
State plays with almost zero poise. There must be something to UNC's defense now. They forced a lot of turnovers on us and and a lot on State.

UNC is playing much better D. They can struggle on O at times when McAdoo thinks he can shoot from more than 5 ft, but they are much improved. State is helping by forcing some things. Refs are letting them play

newclasspack
02-23-2013, 03:57 PM
UNC is playing much better D. They can struggle on O at times when McAdoo thinks he can shoot from more than 5 ft, but they are much improved. State is helping by forcing some things. Refs are letting them play
12 turnovers but howell is out rebounding their whole team and we are down 6. could be worse. could be a whole lot better

devildeac
02-23-2013, 03:57 PM
State killing them on the boards, 23-12. But also leading in the bakery department, too, with 13-4 turnovers. Are you kidding me? 13 turnovers in a half? OTOH, uncheaters have 0 FT. No typos there. 0-0 from the stripe for the babes in blue.

ncexnyc
02-23-2013, 04:03 PM
i know i'm from North carolina But come on ESPN

Basketball > NASCAR

always and forever
You're kidding right? As a transplant from the north I didn't even know NASCAR was a sport until I got down here. NASCAR may have lost some of it's down home, country feel, once they decided to go mainstream, but I'd say NASCAR still rules the south.

chaosmage
02-23-2013, 04:16 PM
With Leslie on the bench, State on a 19-5 run and Roy sat all the starters. Wood with back-to-back 3's.

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 04:17 PM
C.J. Leslie hasn't shown up, but Scott Wood sure has. Wood with 19 points so far. Howell is an absolute beast on the boards.

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 04:18 PM
State killing them on the boards, 23-12. But also leading in the bakery department, too, with 13-4 turnovers. Are you kidding me? 13 turnovers in a half? OTOH, uncheaters have 0 FT. No typos there. 0-0 from the stripe for the babes in blue.

McAdoo is very good defending the hoop and the others board well for their positions. State needs to drive and kick. Wood can shoot it but not a lot of others. Should be a good finish.

jipops
02-23-2013, 04:25 PM
Hairston winning the matchup with Leslie. Also notice Howell hitting none of the jumpers he hit in Cameron.

These are 2 teams that don't do we'll with close games, but State is worse.

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 04:27 PM
Hairston winning the matchup with Leslie. Also notice Howell hitting none of the jumpers he hit in Cameron.

These are 2 teams that don't do we'll with close games, but State is worse.

Just let McAdoo catch it 10 ft away and wait for the brick

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 04:30 PM
Who do we want to win this game?

sporthenry
02-23-2013, 04:37 PM
To be honest, I think this game shows how bad of a coach Roy has been at times. He waited forever to go to Bullock and Hairston during the year. And he is only getting this hustle now. UNC is a good team, but everyone saying that Roy wasn't the problem with all these McD AA's. Of course now it looks like a good coaching job but he has had this talent all year.

jipops
02-23-2013, 04:38 PM
State's defense makes ours look good. Big stretch for UNC. Unless they do something very dumb or Roy mis-manages, this one is done. The better team is winning.

jipops
02-23-2013, 04:40 PM
Doris all of a sudden with a southern accent.

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 04:40 PM
State's defense makes ours look good. Big stretch for UNC. Unless they do something very dumb or Roy mis-manages, this one is done. The better team is winning.

Game over. State falls short again on the road

jipops
02-23-2013, 04:49 PM
We love to poke holes in Roy because it's easy but Gottfried has done the most disappointing job this season. The Heels could very well finish 2nd in the conference.

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 04:50 PM
Uh, what? Burke just said UNC has played the toughest schedule of any ACC team. Their SOS is 15. Duke's is 3... Miami is 2.

It took me 20 seconds to do that bit of research. Why can't these announcers put forth that much effort?

sporthenry
02-23-2013, 04:52 PM
We love to poke holes in Roy because it's easy but Gottfried has done the most disappointing job this season. The Heels could very well finish 2nd in the conference.

Fair enough, but Gottfried has never been regarded in the same category as K, Boeheim, Self, Izzo, etc. as Roy has. I really didn't follow Gottfried at 'Bama much but he seems to be a good recruiter. Terrible in game coach. Only thing I'm not sure is if he can motivate his players. Last year, team looked on a mission, this year, team looks disinterested at times.

But I won't complain if those two are in the running for most disappointing coaching job in the conference.

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 04:54 PM
Burke just said UNC has played the toughest schedule of any ACC team.

Carolina has had the toughest conference schedule, that is what she was referring to.

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 04:56 PM
Fair enough, but Gottfried has never been regarded in the same category as K, Boeheim, Self, Izzo, etc. as Roy has.

Who considers Roy in that category? I don't, and certainly DBR doesn't. Roy is a great recruiter and an average, at best, coach. Although I have to give him some credit today, he took Strickland out of the game and Leslie McDonald played very good defense on Scott Wood down the stretch.

sporthenry
02-23-2013, 04:57 PM
Carolina has had the toughest conference schedule, that is what she was referring to.

Using CBS for their conference SOS, I found FSU, BC, and Va. Tech with harder conference SOSs.

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 04:58 PM
We love to poke holes in Roy because it's easy but Gottfried has done the most disappointing job this season. The Heels could very well finish 2nd in the conference.

I agree. Gottfried has not gotten his team prepared for the road. They have underachieved. This UNC team could win the ACC tourney

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 04:58 PM
Who considers Roy in that category? I don't, and certainly DBR doesn't. Roy is a great recruiter and an average, at best, coach. Although I have to give him some credit today, he took Strickland out of the game and Leslie McDonald played very good defense on Scott Wood down the stretch.

Scott Wood played good defense on Scott Wood. Took some awful, rushed shots. And when he should have shot, he waited for the defense to close in. State looked like they panicked once UNC went up by 5 late in the game.

91devil
02-23-2013, 05:00 PM
Uh, what? Burke just said UNC has played the toughest schedule of any ACC team. Their SOS is 15. Duke's is 3... Miami is 2.

It took me 20 seconds to do that bit of research. Why can't these announcers put forth that much effort?

She didn't make it clear but I think she meant UNC has played the hardest in-conference schedule of all the ACC schools. Of the top five in the standings, UNC will have played the other four each twice. Not that they or we have any control over that, or it really matters. Luck of the conference draw. But Doris didn't say any of that.

Man, was C.J. Leslie awful today.

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 05:00 PM
Using CBS for their conference SOS, I found FSU, BC, and Va. Tech with harder conference SOSs.

Plus the graphic they showed right after the schedule comment was the unc resume and highlighted the 15th ranked SOS.

uh_no
02-23-2013, 05:03 PM
I agree. Gottfried has not gotten his team prepared for the road. They have underachieved. This UNC team could win the ACC tourney

with 3 losses and 2 way too close calls in our 6 road games thus far, I'm not sure we can be criticizing anyone for not being prepared on the road.

or maybe playing on the road is just tough. It's tough for duke, it's tough for NCSU, as miami has showed, it's tough for them as well.

#1Duke
02-23-2013, 05:03 PM
Scott Wood played good defense on Scott Wood. Took some awful, rushed shots. And when he should have shot, he waited for the defense to close in. State looked like they panicked once UNC went up by 5 late in the game.

That's what he had to take and he was forcing it. UNC played him very well, it is what it is. They about shut him down.

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 05:07 PM
That's what he had to take and he was forcing it. UNC played him very well, it is what it is. They about shut him down.

No, he didn't have to take those forced shots. He could have swung the ball back and try to get open again, like he had earlier in the game. UNC's best defense in the 2nd half was hitting shots late and getting 2nd chance points. That put NCSU in the position of feeling like they had to score quickly to answer, leading to some poor decisions, which made life easy on UNC's defense.

#1Duke
02-23-2013, 05:10 PM
No, he didn't have to take those forced shots. He could have swung the ball back and try to get open again, like he had earlier in the game. UNC's best defense in the 2nd half was hitting shots late and getting 2nd chance points. That put NCSU in the position of feeling like they had to score quickly to answer, leading to some poor decisions, which made life easy on UNC's defense.

I didn't mean he had to take those shots. I meant that he wasn't given much and if he was going to shoot, that's what he had to work with and he was forcing it.
UNC played very good defense on him and I suppose he was frustrated much of the game.
It wasn't like Wood was open and missed shots, he was defended very well and I think it got to him.

Bob Green
02-23-2013, 05:12 PM
No, he didn't have to take those forced shots. He could have swung the ball back and try to get open again, like he had earlier in the game. UNC's best defense in the 2nd half was hitting shots late and getting 2nd chance points. That put NCSU in the position of feeling like they had to score quickly to answer, leading to some poor decisions, which made life easy on UNC's defense.

Everything you are saying is quite possible true; however, it doesn't change the fact that after McDonald starting guarding Wood, Wood scored zero points.

OldPhiKap
02-23-2013, 05:12 PM
The real question isn't whether Wake will storm the court. It's whether they will "roll the quad", what they call their odd tradition of TPing all the trees on their quad after big wins.

No I don't get it either.


Great. OPK storms his own court and now you give him this brilliant idea. I can't wait to see what his lawn looks like in 30 minutes;):rolleyes:.

3199

3206

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 05:13 PM
I didn't mean he had to take those shots. I meant that he wasn't given much and if he was going to shot, that's what he had to work with and he was forcing it.
UNC played very good defense on him and I suppose he was frustrated much of the game.
It wasn't like Wood was open and missed shots, he was defended very well and I think it got to him.

He scored 19 on 50% shooting. I think he had little trouble getting shots... Until the end where the whole State team forgot how to pass.

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 05:14 PM
Everything you are saying is quite possible true; however, it doesn't change the fact that after McDonald starting guarding Wood, Wood scored zero points.

My point is that I think it had less to do with McDonald than it did with Wood and State's overall play down the stretch.

#1Duke
02-23-2013, 05:16 PM
My point is that I think it had less to do with McDonald than it did with Wood and State's overall play down the stretch.

That's probably why Wood went with the forearm in the throat.

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 05:17 PM
That's probably why Wood went with the forearm in the throat.

That's because Wood's kind of a jack hole.

#1Duke
02-23-2013, 05:18 PM
That's because Wood's kind of a jack hole.

Yeah, a frustrated jack hole that was being well defended.

cptnflash
02-23-2013, 05:20 PM
And NC State once again proves that they're still NC State.

FerryFor50
02-23-2013, 05:21 PM
And NC State once again proves that they're still NC State.

Yep. Zero mental toughness...

Furniture
02-23-2013, 05:21 PM
They were extremely lethargic! Disappointing.

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 05:22 PM
with 3 losses and 2 way too close calls in our 6 road games thus far, I'm not sure we can be criticizing anyone for not being prepared on the road.

or maybe playing on the road is just tough. It's tough for duke, it's tough for NCSU, as miami has showed, it's tough for them as well.

You are right. I have not seen State much on the road and looking at it more closely, they have had some very close losses. They easily could be a three loss team. We will see how they finish. UNC is looking solid and it will be a huge challenge for Duke when they go there.

tommy
02-23-2013, 05:34 PM
Wake has the elements of a good team and Miami found out the hard way. There is still a lot of work for Duke to catch Miami and some luck would be needed as well, but Miami is also probably out of a #1 tournament seed at this point.

No they're not. Not at all. They're still right in the thick of the race for a #1. Before today they were an automatic #1. They're no longer that, but still very much in the mix.

dukelifer
02-23-2013, 05:42 PM
No they're not. Not at all. They're still right in the thick of the race for a #1. Before today they were an automatic #1. They're no longer that, but still very much in the mix.

Miami will need to beat Duke - as if they needed any more incentive- probably also need to get to the ACC tourney finals. If Duke wins out- they will likely get the 1 seed.

DukeDevil
02-23-2013, 06:11 PM
another shot of WFU

3207

roywhite
02-23-2013, 06:13 PM
Miami will need to beat Duke - as if they needed any more incentive- probably also need to get to the ACC tourney finals. If Duke wins out- they will likely get the 1 seed.

Miami seems a lot more vulnerable and beatable than they did just a few weeks ago.

They seem to have lost some consistent intensity, possibly due to a different role now as the favorite, or the hunted instead of the hunter.
They are also struggling with re-integrating big Reggie into the lineup and game plan.

Seem to be at a bit of crossroads now, but have good coaching and a good PG that can help them right the ship.

El_Diablo
02-23-2013, 06:51 PM
with 3 losses and 2 way too close calls in our 6 road games thus far, I'm not sure we can be criticizing anyone for not being prepared on the road.

or maybe playing on the road is just tough. It's tough for duke, it's tough for NCSU, as miami has showed, it's tough for them as well.

I am not sure which one you missed (FSU or VT), but we had a couple absolute blowouts as well. But I agree with your overall point that winning on the road can be tough.

gumbomoop
02-23-2013, 07:31 PM
Although it's possible that Duke could still tie Miami for ACCT #1, it's highly unlikely, and has been for a couple of weeks. I concede that my own assumption 3-4 games back that Miami had pretty much sewn up #1 - given Duke's and Miami's remaining schedules at that point - was premature. Looking at Miami's relatively easy schedule, I did not see their lethargic play coming.

But they survived and even with their loss today are still solidly in first place. Sure, they could lose at home to one of the bottom-dwellers, but they have only Duke on the road. Just as 2 weeks back, therefore, it just seems sensible to focus not on Miami but on Duke's competitors for #2.

NCSt has what appears to be the easiest remaining schedule. I think they'll win out to get to 12-8. Toughest contest is last game, @ FSU. UVa, UNC, and Duke all have tougher schedules than NCSt. Duke and UVa should win tomorrow, so Duke probably enters the final 2 weeks 2 games behind Miami and 2 ahead of UNC and UVa. But Duke must play @ UVa and @ UNC, plus Miami in CIS, so it's no sure thing to hang on to #2.

Two teams with a long-shot hope to make the NCAAT and thus desperate to win some games are Md and FSU. Md has only one home game remaining, but it's UNC, so they could help Duke by beating the Heels. And they end the season - still desperate, I'll guess - at UVa, so maybe the Terps can help the Devils again. As for FSU, they have home games remaining with UVa and NCSt, and they visit CH. I'd be happy to see both Md and FSU get on win streaks; that would definitely help Duke secure #2.

Unless Duke needs no help whatsoever - save possibly from Ryan Kelly - which would be the very, very best scenario.

Olympic Fan
02-23-2013, 07:38 PM
-- Even with Saturday's loss at Wake, Miami is still all but a shoe-in to win the ACC regular season title outright. Even if they lose at Duke -- and I think they will -- that's their only conceivable remaining loss. The other three remaining games are Virginia Tech at home, Georgia Tech at home and Clemson at home. I think it's much more likely that Duke loses one or two road games at Virginia and at UNC.

Everybody else is virtually eliminated from the race. Un fact, the best UNC or Virginia can do it tie Maryland for the title -- and that only happens if one of those wins out and Miami loss out. It's not going to happen.

What does that do to the race for the No. 1 seed? Miami is still in it ... and they will still be in it if they lose to Duke next week. But it gets tougher and tough -- say they lose to Duke, but sweep the three patsies at home. That makes them 25-5 and probably something like 6-7 in the AP poll. To get a No. 1 in that circumstance, they may have to win the ACC Tournament.

For Duke, I think wecould stand a split with Virginia/UNC IF Duke beats Miami and wins the ACC Tournament.

Of course, it all depends on what other teams do -- althoough I'm not sure that a Georgetown team that's not in the top 10 of either poll, the RPI or Pomeroy is a major threat (although they probably crack the AP top 10 next week).

Just curious where you guys think Miami falls in the next poll. Duke was No. 2 and lost a two-point gume at Maryland and dropped to No. 6 ... Miami was No. 2 and got blown out by a Wake team that's far worse than Maryland (at least Maryland is a bubble team ... Wake has a losing record(,

Newton_14
02-23-2013, 07:51 PM
FYI, I just rushed my court at home!

We are not out of the regular season race yet!


Ha! Good one OPK. Two of Duke's 4 National Titles have come in my son's lifetime, and both times we cut down the nets on our basketball goal outside! Our church Easter play practice was on a Saturday shortly after the title game in 2001 so I wore clippings from the net in my baseball cap to rag the gazillion UNC fans at our church. Easter in 2010 was the Sunday prior to the Title game with Butler, so only those poor UNC fans that had to help take down the stage set that Tuesday night had to endure my Natty Hat with net clippings. :) Fun times!

Wheat/"/"/"
02-23-2013, 08:08 PM
Who considers Roy in that category?

I do.

He has the highest winning % of any active head coach in division 1.

That is simply not possible without being one of the top coaches in the country, i'd argue being a good recruiter is just one aspect of being a good coach.

roywhite
02-23-2013, 08:38 PM
I do.

He has the highest winning % of any active head coach in division 1.

That is simply not possible without being one of the top coaches in the country, i'd argue being a good recruiter is just one aspect of being a good coach.

yeah, I'd put Ole Roy right up there.

He did a marvelous job of building and sustaining a great program at Kansas. He quickly got UNC back on the winning track. He prefers to recruit and coach to a certain style, but it's worked well for him.

Not at an equal level with Coach K in my opinion, but his record compares very well with just about anyone else.

sagegrouse
02-23-2013, 08:53 PM
And NC State once again proves that they're still NC State.

Act I: "Howell's Rebounds vs. CJ's Turnovers" -- It was a draw.

Act II: "The Desert at Halftime" -- State missed 15 shots in a row in the minutes before and after intermission, falling behind by ten points.

Act III: "The Wolfpack Strikes Back" -- Erasing a ten-point deficit and building to a five-point lead.

Act IV: "Walpurgisnacht (Halloween)" -- A horror show for a conclusion, being outscored by 16 points in the last few minutes.

State, unaccountably, was not ready to play arguably the biggest game of the season. I dunno if those guys are brain dead or if the coaching staff is.

sagegrouse

Newton_14
02-23-2013, 08:55 PM
I do.

He has the highest winning % of any active head coach in division 1.

That is simply not possible without being one of the top coaches in the country, i'd argue being a good recruiter is just one aspect of being a good coach.

So you feel that, had Roy been dealt the hand dealt to his partner Eddie Fogler for instance, and started his head coaching career at the likes of Wichita St, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, he would still be sitting here today with all those wins? It is not hard to recruit to Kansas and UNC at all. The schools practically recruit themselves.

I am not convinced that Roy could have recruited top talent to the 3 schools above, and had the level of success he has had at Kansas and UNC. He has won a lot of games with a lot of talent, and lost quite a few games in years when the cupboard was not quite as full.

He's a great recruiter. At Kansas and UNC.

I can't put him in the same category as Wooden, K, Knight, and Dean Smith. He is just not on their level. In this season alone he has proved once again that he will force that square peg into that round hole come hell or high water until someone/something intervenes and forces him to go against his will and put his best 5 guys on the floor. It's bizarre actually.

chaosmage
02-23-2013, 09:24 PM
I do.

He has the highest winning % of any active head coach in division 1.

That is simply not possible without being one of the top coaches in the country, i'd argue being a good recruiter is just one aspect of being a good coach.

But I simply can't leave it alone.

True leaders adjust their style to fit their situation, WITHOUT giving up their leadership and confidence. K is a master of working with what he has, even if we don't always agree with it. Roy has to run. Even with this team, he's still playing run and gun, just doing it with a slightly different position. You are correct in his recruiting skills, but what happens after that? Are you saying that K isn't as good as Roy because he has a lower winning percentage, although far more wins? Had Matt Doherty not broken all of Dean's streaks, what would've happened to Roy during the LDII year? Doh was roasted and crucified for it.

When Roy wins a championship with different styles of coaching, then he'll be a great coach in my book. Each coach has their own preferences, but the best coaches learn how to adjust. It took 2 seasons (LDII and this one) for Roy to figure out that, as Newton pointed out, that a square peg just won't fit in that dagum round hole. As K often points out, he puts the best five players on the court and figures out how to get the ball in the basket. The reason some of UNX's players play is because they are a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.. even if better players are sitting on the bench that should be playing.

Was it McDonald or Strickland that played for 30 minutes or so and had NO stats to speak of, not even a foul? But he needed to start and play that many minutes.

But he's a great coach. Oh yeah. Good? Definitely. You don't win more than one title without being better than good. But he is NOT on K's level. Period.

uh_no
02-23-2013, 09:46 PM
I do.

He has the highest winning % of any active head coach in division 1.

That is simply not possible without being one of the top coaches in the country, i'd argue being a good recruiter is just one aspect of being a good coach.

I'm going to agree with you.

I think roy is different than K. K's skills make him apt to be able to compete very well in almost any year.

ROy on the other hand, is most certainly a very great recruiter, but he likes his system, and doesn't like to deviate from it, but with the right players, he can put together some really great teams....2005 and 2009 are clear examples of that. Obviously, he isn't necessarily able to work well when he doesn't have those players, as this year and 2010 demonstrated.

In that vein, he is similar to many coaches....I would compare him to Calhoun, who could put together some really good teams when he had the right players, but when he didn't, the teams were mediocre to poor (not that they aren't dissimilar in other ways, but in that at least, they are similar)

What it comes down to is that there is no good way to skin a cat....don't have to look past the defensive preachings of the two most winning coaches....K and Boeheim...man-man and zone....K does things one way and roy does things another. It exposes roy to looking lost when the team can't respond, and sometimes duke teams end up looking really good when they have flaws that ultimatly doom them.

Lets be honest, Roy has done a very good job pulling this team together....we can criticize him, but they gave us a good run in cameron, and just beat a pretty good state team today...a few weeks ago, I was questioning whether they'd get 20 wins, but now it looks nearly assured.


We can rip roy all we want, but he's a good coach. K probably does some things better than him, but roy does some things better than K. I'll rag on roy for being at UNC, but as wheat pointed out, he has the numbers to back himself up.

How many coaches NEVER win a title? roy has 2....how many coaches never reach a final 4? roy has 7....4th all time...more than izzo, pitino, Rupp, knight, Calhoun, Calipari, and boeheim.

the job of the coach is ultimately to have a winning team, and Roy has done that.

sporthenry
02-23-2013, 10:11 PM
The thing with Roy, is that it is tough to put him in a category. If you go by numbers alone such as wins or titles, he has to be in that top group. He has 600 wins and 2 titles which really only K can compete with. So I think people put him up there with the other top coaches based on that, then they turn around and vote him the most overrated coaches.

The comparison to Calhoun is a pretty good one. From a recruiting standpoint, he is as good as just about anyone not named Calipari. But from a game manger or X's and O's guy, I'm not sure he is much better than Gottfried, Jay Wright, or others. It isn't only the PG thing but also his insistence on a big guy. Only recently did he go to 4 guards, which K has gone to regularly if need be.

As mentioned, it is tough to compare when he has had to recruit at UNC and KU and he'll be the first to admit he doesn't want to ever find out if he can coach with lesser talent. I know that is said in jest but there is some truth to it.

But when people talk about coaching, I think they focus more on X's and O's, motivation and getting the most out of your talent. Sure, there is a recruiting aspect but ask someone who is a better coach, Brad Stevens or Roy Williams and most people probably say Stevens. He has gotten more out of lesser talent in recent years.

uh_no
02-23-2013, 10:23 PM
But from a game manger or X's and O's guy, I'm not sure he is much better than Gottfried, Jay Wright, or others. It isn't only the PG thing but also his insistence on a big guy. Only recently did he go to 4 guards, which K has gone to regularly if need be.

To be fair, Roys teams don't usually collapse down the stretch in games, as NCSU has now for 2 years....now that might just be surperior talent, but NCSU looked lost in the last 10 or so minutes of the game today...and that might just be the road, but I think it's happened too many times to NCSU this year...you don't normally see that with Duke or Carolina.




As mentioned, it is tough to compare when he has had to recruit at UNC and KU and he'll be the first to admit he doesn't want to ever find out if he can coach with lesser talent. I know that is said in jest but there is some truth to it.

But when people talk about coaching, I think they focus more on X's and O's, motivation and getting the most out of your talent. Sure, there is a recruiting aspect but ask someone who is a better coach, Brad Stevens or Roy Williams and most people probably say Stevens. He has gotten more out of lesser talent in recent years.

I think the fact is that recruiting is a HUGE component of college success. Roy and Calipari have proven that, as well as duke with some of the phenomenallly talented, dominant teams around the turn of the millennium. Great recruiting can compensate for not as good coaching, and if that's how Roy wins his games, then more power to him.

Personally, I appreciate what someone like brad stevens does, since it's very pretty pure basketball (as oppsed to overpowering dominance that you see so often in the NBA, and to a lesser extent with calipari teams and UNC), and I would much rather watch two lesser talented teams play a good game (2010 title game anyone?...not that we were untalented, we certainly were not, but to contrast with UK or UNC's title teams...or even our own previous titles, we were less so) than watch hyper talented teams try to out-talent eachother.

#1Duke
02-23-2013, 11:24 PM
I'm going to agree with you.

I think roy is different than K. K's skills make him apt to be able to compete very well in almost any year.

ROy on the other hand, is most certainly a very great recruiter, but he likes his system, and doesn't like to deviate from it, but with the right players, he can put together some really great teams....2005 and 2009 are clear examples of that. Obviously, he isn't necessarily able to work well when he doesn't have those players, as this year and 2010 demonstrated.

In that vein, he is similar to many coaches....I would compare him to Calhoun, who could put together some really good teams when he had the right players, but when he didn't, the teams were mediocre to poor (not that they aren't dissimilar in other ways, but in that at least, they are similar)

What it comes down to is that there is no good way to skin a cat....don't have to look past the defensive preachings of the two most winning coaches....K and Boeheim...man-man and zone....K does things one way and roy does things another. It exposes roy to looking lost when the team can't respond, and sometimes duke teams end up looking really good when they have flaws that ultimatly doom them.

Lets be honest, Roy has done a very good job pulling this team together....we can criticize him, but they gave us a good run in cameron, and just beat a pretty good state team today...a few weeks ago, I was questioning whether they'd get 20 wins, but now it looks nearly assured.


We can rip roy all we want, but he's a good coach. K probably does some things better than him, but roy does some things better than K. I'll rag on roy for being at UNC, but as wheat pointed out, he has the numbers to back himself up.

How many coaches NEVER win a title? roy has 2....how many coaches never reach a final 4? roy has 7....4th all time...more than izzo, pitino, Rupp, knight, Calhoun, Calipari, and boeheim.

the job of the coach is ultimately to have a winning team, and Roy has done that.

I agree and good objective post.
I think Roy was holding on this year and doing what brought him success in previous years. I think Roy favors a game based around a good big man while Coach K. favors a different style of basketball. Did Roy wait to long to make the change? I don't think so. This is a good time of the year to peak and have your team playing it's best game.
As far as where Roy ranks in coaching I would say at or very near the top. He has the record and numbers to back it up. Stats don't lie and try as we might, we can't argue with hard numbers.

As far as the "good recruiter" argument goes, top players go to top programs..... end of story.

ETA: I will add that I think Coach K. gets the most out of his players and puts a high quality team on the floor year after year.

ice-9
02-24-2013, 12:04 AM
Not that I want to show off...but, OK I'm showing off. ;)

Feb 16 - http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?30495-This-Week-in-the-ACC-2-11-2-17&p=627296#post627296


If they don't lose at Clemson, my shoot-for-the-stars pick is a Miami loss at Wake Forest. WF has been a surprisingly decent team at home, having beaten UVA, NC State, and walloped Florida State. And Miami just might be overlooking the Deacons given their poor overall record.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-24-2013, 06:29 AM
Everybody wants to rag on Roy for not moving to the small lineup as soon as it was so obvious to them, (UNC fans included), but what they don't stop to realize is that Roy has grown this team.
His team, his way.
And they are winning.
He's doing it just how some like to say he can't do it, adjusting his coaching to his talent. I guess he just didn't do it fast enough for some, but look what he has done...

Soph. Hubert, lightly recruited, has become a solid player dispite limited offensive skills.
Fresh. James was getting better, more comfortable, and well on his way to earn time against quality bigs before injury.
Fresh. Tokoto has stepped up in tight games and gained confidence that he can contribute this year.
Fresh. Paige kept Roy's confidence and is becoming a high quality leader and PG.
Soph. Hairston has learned that PT is earned by being a team player and sharing the ball.

IMO, he is coaching this team up to get better, and coaching them well. And I think he deserves respect from fans, all fans...he has earned it.

Bob Green
02-24-2013, 07:16 AM
After back-to-back road losses to Carolina and Miami, Virginia needs to put together a very strong finish. With five regular season games left, they need to finish 4-1 and win a game in the ACCT to ensure an invite to the NCAAT. It all starts today against Georgia Tech. Their other remaining games are Duke, @BC, @FSU and Maryland.

I like this Virginia squad and believe Coach Bennett is doing a quality job in Charlottesville. They have some bad out-of-conference losses such as Old Dominion, but Ken Pomeroy currently ranks them at #19:

http://kenpom.com/

Olympic Fan
02-24-2013, 10:33 AM
After back-to-back road losses to Carolina and Miami, Virginia needs to put together a very strong finish. With five regular season games left, they need to finish 4-1 and win a game in the ACCT to ensure an invite to the NCAAT. It all starts today against Georgia Tech. Their other remaining games are Duke, @BC, @FSU and Maryland.

I like this Virginia squad and believe Coach Bennett is doing a quality job in Charlottesville. They have some bad out-of-conference losses such as Old Dominion, but Ken Pomeroy currently ranks them at #19:

http://kenpom.com/

Bob, I agree that Virginia is kind of a unique bubble team. They were horrible early and their non-conference SOS has hovered around 335 -- that's the kind of thing the committee likes to punish. Of course, it's a little bit of a fluke. They were in the preseason NIT and were supposed to win two games at home and go to New York for two prime games. Instead, they lost at home to Delaware and missed out on games with K-State and Pitt.

On the other hand, they've emerged as a strong January/February team ... unfortunately, most of their success has come at home. They really could have used that win at Miami that they barely missed. I agree that they have to finish strong ... but home wins over Georgia Tech and even Maryland won't do it for them. What they really need is a win over Duke Thursday night in C'ville. That's the kind of premier win that can get a bubble team over the hump. So expect the team and the crowd to be hyped Thursday ... it's going to be rough (and they are unbeaten at home in the ACC).

ChillinDuke
02-24-2013, 11:18 AM
I'm going to agree with you.

I think roy is different than K. K's skills make him apt to be able to compete very well in almost any year.

ROy on the other hand, is most certainly a very great recruiter, but he likes his system, and doesn't like to deviate from it, but with the right players, he can put together some really great teams....2005 and 2009 are clear examples of that. Obviously, he isn't necessarily able to work well when he doesn't have those players, as this year and 2010 demonstrated.

In that vein, he is similar to many coaches....I would compare him to Calhoun, who could put together some really good teams when he had the right players, but when he didn't, the teams were mediocre to poor (not that they aren't dissimilar in other ways, but in that at least, they are similar)

What it comes down to is that there is no good way to skin a cat....don't have to look past the defensive preachings of the two most winning coaches....K and Boeheim...man-man and zone....K does things one way and roy does things another. It exposes roy to looking lost when the team can't respond, and sometimes duke teams end up looking really good when they have flaws that ultimatly doom them.

Lets be honest, Roy has done a very good job pulling this team together....we can criticize him, but they gave us a good run in cameron, and just beat a pretty good state team today...a few weeks ago, I was questioning whether they'd get 20 wins, but now it looks nearly assured.


We can rip roy all we want, but he's a good coach. K probably does some things better than him, but roy does some things better than K. I'll rag on roy for being at UNC, but as wheat pointed out, he has the numbers to back himself up.

How many coaches NEVER win a title? roy has 2....how many coaches never reach a final 4? roy has 7....4th all time...more than izzo, pitino, Rupp, knight, Calhoun, Calipari, and boeheim.

the job of the coach is ultimately to have a winning team, and Roy has done that.

I see your point, and I will admit that Roy doesn't exactly get a fair evaluation by many around these parts (understandable as he's our biggest rival's head coach). But Newton's point below really has to be emphasized, IMO...


So you feel that, had Roy been dealt the hand dealt to his partner Eddie Fogler for instance, and started his head coaching career at the likes of Wichita St, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, he would still be sitting here today with all those wins? It is not hard to recruit to Kansas and UNC at all. The schools practically recruit themselves.

I am not convinced that Roy could have recruited top talent to the 3 schools above, and had the level of success he has had at Kansas and UNC. He has won a lot of games with a lot of talent, and lost quite a few games in years when the cupboard was not quite as full.

He's a great recruiter. At Kansas and UNC.

I can't put him in the same category as Wooden, K, Knight, and Dean Smith. He is just not on their level. In this season alone he has proved once again that he will force that square peg into that round hole come hell or high water until someone/something intervenes and forces him to go against his will and put his best 5 guys on the floor. It's bizarre actually.

Roy's numbers are great. Yes, they are. But he's like the trust fund kid vs Joe the plumber. Clearly, the trust fund kid is going to earn more (on interest alone) and have a lavish lifestyle despite working comparatively less for it.

I'm not trying to get into an argument over economics, or social class, or politics or anything like that. But the point is Roy has coached at Kansas and UNC - two of the top five (maybe better) college basketball programs on planet earth. If you strip out the numbers/stats/records that are attributable mainly to having that intrinsic advantage, I am far far far VERY far from sold that Roy Williams is one of the best coaches in college.

The numbers back him up, but the numbers are skewed. It's just not an even playing field.

- Chillin

OldPhiKap
02-24-2013, 11:21 AM
UVa is improving, and all road games are tough. Sometimes we get seasons like this to remind us how unreal some of our past success has been. When Syracuse, Louisville, ND and Pitt join, I would expect the road to get even more difficult for most teams too.

We need to take care of business, and hope Miami gets another loss in addition to @ Cameron.

sporthenry
02-24-2013, 11:39 AM
IMO, he is coaching this team up to get better, and coaching them well. And I think he deserves respect from fans, all fans...he has earned it.

So wait, he takes a team with 9 top 100 recruits and 5 burger boys, and this is a great coaching job. A team to an unranked position. And before we hear from everyone saying how being a top 100 recruit or a McD's AA doesn't mean everything, which I agree, guess what 5 guys are leading UNC to its resurgence? You guessed it, the 5 burger boys. So I guess they must be pretty good.

If UNC fans are happy with him, so be it. As Duke fans, we should probably be happy with him over someone like Smart especially if they miss out on Wiggins. But I'm not going to give respect to Roy Williams for suggestions that everyone on here had said would make UNC better. That is why this team is better. Not because of Desmond Hubert. But congrats on Roy getting guys to dive on the floor yesterday and show some real hustle.

OldPhiKap
02-24-2013, 11:42 AM
I see your point, and I will admit that Roy doesn't exactly get a fair evaluation by many around these parts (understandable as he's our biggest rival's head coach). But Newton's point below really has to be emphasized, IMO...



Roy's numbers are great. Yes, they are. But he's like the trust fund kid vs Joe the plumber. Clearly, the trust fund kid is going to earn more (on interest alone) and have a lavish lifestyle despite working comparatively less for it.

I'm not trying to get into an argument over economics, or social class, or politics or anything like that. But the point is Roy has coached at Kansas and UNC - two of the top five (maybe better) college basketball programs on planet earth. If you strip out the numbers/stats/records that are attributable mainly to having that intrinsic advantage, I am far far far VERY far from sold that Roy Williams is one of the best coaches in college.

The numbers back him up, but the numbers are skewed. It's just not an even playing field.

- Chillin

Roy is a top tier coach who has benefited from a strong starting hand. He would not have the wins he has if he had started lower, but by the same token he may have been an even better coach if he had to scramble and innovate to rise. Brad Stevens is a good example, as is Tom Izzo and Mike. I bet you that before every road game to Virginia, even this week, K thinks back to the absolute pasting we took from them in 1983 (IRC) and vows to win this one. You learn from that hunger to climb and get your program (back) on the map.

I don't begrudge Roy his record, or his placement in the top group of coaches. But even that group has gradations.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-24-2013, 11:48 AM
Everybody wants to rag on Roy for not moving to the small lineup as soon as it was so obvious to them, (UNC fans included), but what they don't stop to realize is that Roy has grown this team.
His team, his way.
And they are winning.
He's doing it just how some like to say he can't do it, adjusting his coaching to his talent. I guess he just didn't do it fast enough for some, but look what he has done...

Soph. Hubert, lightly recruited, has become a solid player dispite limited offensive skills.
Fresh. James was getting better, more comfortable, and well on his way to earn time against quality bigs before injury.
Fresh. Tokoto has stepped up in tight games and gained confidence that he can contribute this year.
Fresh. Paige kept Roy's confidence and is becoming a high quality leader and PG.
Soph. Hairston has learned that PT is earned by being a team player and sharing the ball.

IMO, he is coaching this team up to get better, and coaching them well. And I think he deserves respect from fans, all fans...he has earned it.

I agree - this season is one of Roy's more impressive performances. Anyone who thinks that he's not a top tier coach needs to set their Duke blue glasses down for a moment.

Duke fans always point to how K coaches to the tournament - everything else is secondary and his scheduling, team play, coaching, etc is all geared towards March. Can you deny for a moment that Roy has UNC on this trajectory this year? It's clearly a much better team than it was 6 weeks ago.

I have always reiterated that Roy is a fantastic recruiter and a mediocre in-game coach. I think that his game plan against Duke was excellent and gave them the best chance for victory. The lineup change, the play on Mason (flopping aside), and the overall plan were all air-tight. A few more timely free throws, and we might be talking about a truly phenomenal coaching performance.

I don't think this UNC team is a top 25 team, but Roy has turned them from a bubble team into a team that I seriously doubt anyone is looking forward to encountering in the round of 32 or 16.

Go Duke!

El_Diablo
02-24-2013, 11:58 AM
In order to get the ACC #1 seed, we need to either (a) finish with a better record than Miami, or (b) finish with the same record as Miami but hold the tie-breaker. In order for scenario (a) to happen, Duke needs to win out (5-0) and to have Miami stumble greatly (1-3). Or Duke could finish on top by going 4-1 and having Miami finish 0-4.

Well, what about scenario (b)? Say Duke wins out (5-0) and Miami underwhelms but does not completely collapse (2-2). That would result in both teams finishing at 15-3. Okay, so let's look at the tie-breaker scenarios. The tie breaker starts with the head to head record (which would be a push) and then compares records against the rest of the ACC, starting at the top. Since Duke lost to NC State and Maryland while Miami did not, if either of them finishes ahead of the team that beats Miami, we are outta luck. Now let's look at Miami's remaining ACC opponents: #8 (Clemson), #10 (GT), and #12 (VT). A loss to any of them would likely not give us any tie-breaker advantage that comes into play:
-Loss to VT: Completely irrelevant. VT is mathematically ensured of finishing behind NC State, so Miami (1-0) wins the tie-breaker against Duke (1-1), regardless of anything else that happens.
-Loss to Clemson: Irrelevant, unless Clemson finishes extremely hot and both NC State and Maryland collapse, such that Clemson finishes ahead of both of them. This is possible, but unlikely (even if Clemson wins at Miami).
-Loss to GT: Same analysis for a loss to Clemson. Possible, but unlikely, especially since GT already has nine losses, and its remaining schedule is pretty rough (@UVA, @BC, MD, NC State).

Basically, since NC State already has a 3-game lead over Clemson and 3.5-game lead over GT...under either (a) or (b), we would need Miami to collapse, losing at least three out of their remaining four games (one to us, and two of their three home games against bottom-tier ACC teams).

sporthenry
02-24-2013, 12:32 PM
I don't care much about winning the ACC regular season, mainly b/c it will be near impossible. But if we are talking about tie breaker, then we are talking about the ACC tournament. Being seeded 2nd isn't so bad anymore with 4/5 teams in the ACC being competitive. Ideally, it'd be nice to see UVA hold the 3 seed but I prefer avoiding NC State at all costs even if that means a game against UNC with home court advantage.

And the only real advantage for the 1 might be the fact that the 4/5 winner will have played the toughest game.

ChillinDuke
02-24-2013, 12:46 PM
Roy is a top tier coach who has benefited from a strong starting hand. He would not have the wins he has if he had started lower, but by the same token he may have been an even better coach if he had to scramble and innovate to rise. Brad Stevens is a good example, as is Tom Izzo and Mike. I bet you that before every road game to Virginia, even this week, K thinks back to the absolute pasting we took from them in 1983 (IRC) and vows to win this one. You learn from that hunger to climb and get your program (back) on the map.

I don't begrudge Roy his record, or his placement in the top group of coaches. But even that group has gradations.

I don't begrudge him either. Perhaps your post is a more eloquent way of saying it: he's just not, in my eyes, an "A" rated coach. I would not go so far as to say "B" rated. But not "A" rated. That's K, Izzo, Self, Boeheim territory. Stevens is rising through the ranks as well. Others are in the conversation. Just my opinion.

- Chillin

davekay1971
02-24-2013, 01:05 PM
Everybody wants to rag on Roy for not moving to the small lineup as soon as it was so obvious to them, (UNC fans included), but what they don't stop to realize is that Roy has grown this team.
His team, his way.
And they are winning.
He's doing it just how some like to say he can't do it, adjusting his coaching to his talent. I guess he just didn't do it fast enough for some, but look what he has done...

Soph. Hubert, lightly recruited, has become a solid player dispite limited offensive skills.
Fresh. James was getting better, more comfortable, and well on his way to earn time against quality bigs before injury.
Fresh. Tokoto has stepped up in tight games and gained confidence that he can contribute this year.
Fresh. Paige kept Roy's confidence and is becoming a high quality leader and PG.
Soph. Hairston has learned that PT is earned by being a team player and sharing the ball.

IMO, he is coaching this team up to get better, and coaching them well. And I think he deserves respect from fans, all fans...he has earned it.

But just imagine what Dean would have done with this team...:cool:

Troublemaker
02-24-2013, 01:07 PM
Did Roy wait to long to make the change? I don't think so. This is a good time of the year to peak and have your team playing it's best game.


This argument is silly and an example of how "peak"-obsessed (or the appearance of "peak") this board is. Every basketball coach in America could have his team "playing it's[sic] best game" heading into March if he waited until mid-February to identify and/or play his best lineup. It's not honorable/laudable to wait that long. I mean, let that sink in. Mid-February!

You cheat your team out of a chance for some real accomplishments. Maybe UNC beats Butler and wins Maui with that lineup. Two more months of seasoning for that lineup could've made them really dangerous (true peak) heading into March (not to mention given them a higher seed and best chance at advancing). You cheat your competitors and your league as well. For example, how different would the ACC regular season race look now if UNC could've stolen one from Miami? Instead Miami got to play weak-UNC twice and Duke has to play best-lineup-UNC twice (note: we're going to render that moot by sweeping them anyway). That's galling if you're a competitor.

gumbomoop
02-24-2013, 01:18 PM
In order to get the ACC #1 seed, we need to either (a) finish with a better record than Miami, or (b) finish with the same record as Miami but hold the tie-breaker. In order for scenario (a) to happen, Duke needs to win out (5-0) and to have Miami stumble greatly (1-3). Or Duke could finish on top by going 4-1 and having Miami finish 0-4.

Basically, since NC State already has a 3-game lead over Clemson and 3.5-game lead over GT...under either (a) or (b), we would need Miami to collapse, losing at least three out of their remaining four games (one to us, and two of their three home games against bottom-tier ACC teams).

I've only tag-quoted part of El Diablo's excellent, because detailed, post. I appreciate the research and detailed analysis, having agreed with its implications and conclusions in a previous post in this thread.


Although it's possible that Duke could still tie Miami for ACCT #1, it's highly unlikely, and has been for a couple of weeks.

Just as 2 weeks back, therefore, it just seems sensible to focus not on Miami but on Duke's competitors for #2.

Two teams with a long-shot hope to make the NCAAT and thus desperate to win some games are Md and FSU.... I'd be happy to see both Md and FSU get on win streaks; that would definitely help Duke secure #2.

No reason, of course, that we posters can't walk and chew gum at the same time, i.e., hope for the highly unlikely - a Miami collapse - while paying close attention to the final 4-5 games of UVa and UNC especially. I guess that means we should pay twice as much attention when UVa and UNC play Duke.

gumbomoop
02-24-2013, 04:18 PM
Although I can't imagine actually watching any of this evening's FSU @ VT game [good heavens.....], I very much hope the 'Noles win, and then win at home v. Wake on Tues. That might start them on a little roll, give them some hope to scramble back onto the NCAAT bubble. Their final 3 games are @ UNC and then home to UVa and NCSt. Like to see them win a couple of those last 3. To help Duke, if Duke needs help.

Dev11
02-25-2013, 08:14 AM
3206

Call the New York Times, students at Wake Forest are supporting their basketball team in unorthodox ways.

Wander
02-25-2013, 09:19 AM
This argument is silly and an example of how "peak"-obsessed (or the appearance of "peak") this board is. Every basketball coach in America could have his team "playing it's[sic] best game" heading into March if he waited until mid-February to identify and/or play his best lineup. It's not honorable/laudable to wait that long. I mean, let that sink in. Mid-February!


Well said. It's similar to the argument that people sometimes try and make about injuries making a team better. We could have suspended Mason and Seth until the conference tournament just so technically we would be "playing our best basketball" in March.

UNC may be able to stop worrying about the bubble, but they really hurt themselves by not going to the small lineup sooner. The loss to Texas alone will cost them a seed line or two.

Duvall
02-25-2013, 01:32 PM
Soph. Hubert, lightly recruited, has become a solid player dispite limited offensive skills.
Fresh. James was getting better, more comfortable, and well on his way to earn time against quality bigs before injury.
Fresh. Tokoto has stepped up in tight games and gained confidence that he can contribute this year.


Is there evidence that this has actually happened? There are no signs that Hubert has become a "solid player" - he has basically dropped out of the rotation, with only ten minutes played since the Miami game. Tokoto has only played nineteen minutes in that same four-game stretch. James was a non-factor in the games leading up to his concussion. It seems like one of the major factors in UNC's recent improvement has come from the fact that these guys are no longer getting playing time.

gethlives
02-25-2013, 01:36 PM
I think right before the first Carolina-Duke game, someone pointed out the interesting fact that since Roy has been back at Carolina his teams are 2-8 in the first Carolina-Duke game and 7-2 in the second. I think this shows that Roy does an incredible job--I would say better than anyone in the country, of having his teams get better as the year progresses. The only year in which I would say it didn't affirmatively happen was 2010 and that team was hit ridiculously hard by injuries. This type of improvement is to me proof more than perhaps anything what an outstanding coach he is. It also shows that he does tinker with a team when necessary (see this year and 2006 when he moved Ginyard out of the lineup for Miller) and just as importantly when he doesn't feel the need to overreact to challenges (see 2009 after starting out the ACC season 0-2).

sagegrouse
02-25-2013, 02:06 PM
If there are over 300 Div I college basketball coaches, then it is mean-spirited to deny Ol' Roy an A -- besides, we can have more fun with him if he has a high grade. Roy Williams is in the HOF and has two NCs and seven Final Four appearances. And I expect his salary is solidly in the top ten.

As to who's better, I agree with Izzo and K (although biased in the case of the latter). I disagree that Roy is an inferior coach to Boeheim and Self -- I'd say better than Self and close to Boeheim. I mean, how many times has Self failed to get to the regionals with top-ranked teams?

But even if an A coach, we can still make fun of his faked-up folksy ways and his ludicrous, utterly non-professional pronouncements (Haiti, etc.).

Also, being a Duke fan, we are not only utterly unprepared to give Roy any credit whatsoever, but his fast-paced style and his helter-skelter substitution pattern seem toally alien.

sagegrouse

sporthenry
02-25-2013, 02:29 PM
If there are over 300 Div I college basketball coaches, then it is mean-spirited to deny Ol' Roy an A -- besides, we can have more fun with him if he has a high grade. Roy Williams is in the HOF and has two NCs and seven Final Four appearances. And I expect his salary is solidly in the top ten.

As to who's better, I agree with Izzo and K (although biased in the case of the latter). I disagree that Roy is an inferior coach to Boeheim and Self -- I'd say better than Self and close to Boeheim. I mean, how many times has Self failed to get to the regionals with top-ranked teams?

But even if an A coach, we can still make fun of his faked-up folksy ways and his ludicrous, utterly non-professional pronouncements (Haiti, etc.).

Also, being a Duke fan, we are not only utterly unprepared to give Roy any credit whatsoever, but his fast-paced style and his helter-skelter substitution pattern seem toally alien.

sagegrouse

What Self has done in the Big 12 is remarkable. Judging him by a single-elimination tournament while dismissing the consistency in the regular season just isn't fair and I would suspect we had that stance a bunch before 2010 happened. The other thing with Self is that he is only 50 years old. Roy is 62.

When Roy was 50 years old (2001), he had 2 final 4's, 4 Big 8/12 tourney titles, 7 Big 8/12 regular season titles and no National Titles.

Self at 50 has 2 F4's, 1 title, 5 Big 12 titles (and a Big Ten one as well), 8 Big 12 regular season titles (add in 2 Big Ten and 2 WAC ones as well).

The problem with this discussion is the cumulative nature of stats. Certainly Self has had some disappointments come tourney time but he still has plenty of years to equal and surpass Roy in tourney stats. Or even when comparing him to Izzo, Izzo is 4 years younger but started coaching 7 years later. Does that make him a worse coach?

nocilla
02-26-2013, 07:56 AM
I think right before the first Carolina-Duke game, someone pointed out the interesting fact that since Roy has been back at Carolina his teams are 2-8 in the first Carolina-Duke game and 7-2 in the second. I think this shows that Roy does an incredible job--I would say better than anyone in the country, of having his teams get better as the year progresses. The only year in which I would say it didn't affirmatively happen was 2010 and that team was hit ridiculously hard by injuries. This type of improvement is to me proof more than perhaps anything what an outstanding coach he is. It also shows that he does tinker with a team when necessary (see this year and 2006 when he moved Ginyard out of the lineup for Miller) and just as importantly when he doesn't feel the need to overreact to challenges (see 2009 after starting out the ACC season 0-2).

One thing I would like to point out is how Roy seems to create his own resurgences. Remember in 2011, we were discussing his merits for ACC coach of the year and his biggest achievement was the dramatic turnaround from 2010. A lot of DBR posters pointed out that it was his bad coaching that led to the 2010 collapse. (there were arguments about player turnover and injuries, but the team still had lots of McDs and a lot of the injuries happened after the initial trainwreck) So he was essentially in the running for COY because he did such a good job of coaching compared to his own coaching of the previous season. I think this year is more of the same. This was the preseason #11 team in the country. With 5 McDs and a POY candidate in McAdoo, they were expected to contend with NCSU and Duke for the ACC. Well they are falling short. But since the team has been playing better, Roy must be a great coach to have turned things around?

With that said, I do think Roy is one of the top coaches in the country. He has advantages over most coaches by being at UNC and KU, but he still wins a lot of games. Having talent doesn't automatically translate to wins, so he has to get credit for winning a lot of games. He is not at K's level, but he is better than a lot of us give him credit for. Even my own argument above has positive merits as he has shown the ability to get back up off the floor when he was knocked down. And like Bill Self, although to a lesser degree, his story is not finished yet either. It is possible he adds more to his legacy before he is done. I hope not, but certainly possible.

CDu
02-26-2013, 08:29 AM
Although I can't imagine actually watching any of this evening's FSU @ VT game [good heavens.....], I very much hope the 'Noles win, and then win at home v. Wake on Tues. That might start them on a little roll, give them some hope to scramble back onto the NCAAT bubble. Their final 3 games are @ UNC and then home to UVa and NCSt. Like to see them win a couple of those last 3. To help Duke, if Duke needs help.

Even before FSU lost to VT, they were pretty much already eliminated from at-large consideration. This team has only three wins against the top-100 (vs BYU, vs Maryland, @Maryland). That's it. And those three sort-of-quality wins are offset by atrocious losses against USA, Mercer, and @Auburn.

FSU is 0-7 against the RPI top-50, 3-8 against the top-100, and (with the VT loss) they now have 5 losses against teams outside the top-100. In other words, more losses to teams outside the top-100 than wins against teams inside the top-100. Their tourney hopes have rested on the ACC tournament for a week or two.

That said, I'd love for them to jump up and beat either UNC or UVa. Unless, of course, them doing so results in NC State moving up to 3rd in the ACC. I'd want either UVa or UNC to stay in 3rd if we're 2nd. Which is a very real concern as both UVa and UNC play us and both are only 1 game ahead of NC State (and State's schedule down the stretch is quite soft).

gumbomoop
02-26-2013, 01:34 PM
Even before FSU lost to VT, they were pretty much already eliminated from at-large consideration. This team has only three wins against the top-100 (vs BYU, vs Maryland, @Maryland). That's it. And those three sort-of-quality wins are offset by atrocious losses against USA, Mercer, and @Auburn.

FSU is 0-7 against the RPI top-50, 3-8 against the top-100, and (with the VT loss) they now have 5 losses against teams outside the top-100. In other words, more losses to teams outside the top-100 than wins against teams inside the top-100. Their tourney hopes have rested on the ACC tournament for a week or two.

That said, I'd love for them to jump up and beat either UNC or UVa. Unless, of course, them doing so results in NC State moving up to 3rd in the ACC. I'd want either UVa or UNC to stay in 3rd if we're 2nd. Which is a very real concern as both UVa and UNC play us and both are only 1 game ahead of NC State (and State's schedule down the stretch is quite soft).

Yes, I must have been hallucinating re FSU, though in fairness I did specify that I merely wanted them to win a few straight so as to "give them some hope." That is, I wanted them to hallucinate, too. So now I think I'll want them to hallucinate that if they can win out their last 4, they can then win the ACCT.

Which brings me to the issue you raise in your 3d paragraph. Just trying to think through this..... Yes, you're right, should the Noles somehow have hallucinated to wins over UVa and UNC, but subsequently wake up, play to their normal, abysmal "standard," and lose to NCSt, that would almost surely place the Pack and Devils in the same bracket.

I suppose the best of all possible scenarios - if the goal is to avoid NCSt in the semis - would be for UVa to lose Thurs eve, then win out. That would put them at 12-6, and holding the tiebreaker with NCSt, whether 12-6 is for 3-4, or, irrelevant as far as Duke would be concerned, 4-5.

FerryFor50
02-26-2013, 01:36 PM
What Self has done in the Big 12 is remarkable. Judging him by a single-elimination tournament while dismissing the consistency in the regular season just isn't fair and I would suspect we had that stance a bunch before 2010 happened. The other thing with Self is that he is only 50 years old. Roy is 62.

When Roy was 50 years old (2001), he had 2 final 4's, 4 Big 8/12 tourney titles, 7 Big 8/12 regular season titles and no National Titles.

Self at 50 has 2 F4's, 1 title, 5 Big 12 titles (and a Big Ten one as well), 8 Big 12 regular season titles (add in 2 Big Ten and 2 WAC ones as well).

The problem with this discussion is the cumulative nature of stats. Certainly Self has had some disappointments come tourney time but he still has plenty of years to equal and surpass Roy in tourney stats. Or even when comparing him to Izzo, Izzo is 4 years younger but started coaching 7 years later. Does that make him a worse coach?

But does Bill Self have Roy's NIT credentials?

I think not!

CDu
02-26-2013, 02:15 PM
I suppose the best of all possible scenarios - if the goal is to avoid NCSt in the semis - would be for UVa to lose Thurs eve, then win out. That would put them at 12-6, and holding the tiebreaker with NCSt, whether 12-6 is for 3-4, or, irrelevant as far as Duke would be concerned, 4-5.

Yes, this is probably the best outcome:
- we beat UVa on Thursday
- we win all of our remaining games (or at worst beat everyone but Miami)
- UVa wins all of their remaining games
- NC State wins all their remaining games
- Maryland hangs on to the #6 seed

In that scenario, UVa takes the #3 seed, State takes the #4 seed, UNC takes the #5 seed. We get one of the myriad of teams hovering at or below .500 overall for the season as our 1st game, and avoid NC State and UNC in the second game, too. Meaning we'd play only one of Miami, State, and UNC in the ACC tournament.

As nice as it is to beat those guys, I'd just as soon let them cannibalize themselves on the other side of the bracket.

wgl1228
02-27-2013, 01:57 PM
Ok who is ready to cheer on Eric Green and VPI tonight! It's doubtful they win but it gives me something to cheer for tonight.