This Week in the ACC - 2/11-2/17

[pfrduke]

Last week we split the conference in half, between the top 6 teams that will/may make the tournament and the bottom 6 that will not (absent winning the ACCT). The top 6 had a reasonably good week - none of them dropped games to the bottom 6 (although some contests were closer than others), but in the intra-top 6 matchups, the teams on shakier footing, particularly Maryland in losing at home to Virginia, couldn't come up with wins. Once again, only three of this weeks 11 games (Maryland and NC State have a mid-week bye) are battles between teams at the top, and this time Duke is involved in both of them. The Devils will need two big wins to keep within shouting distance of Miami (and to keep the Cavaliers off their heels).

Monday is dark

Tuesday starts Rivalry Week with the Hokies traveling to Charlottesville. The first matchup between the two Virginia schools was a 16-point Cavalier win in Blacksburg - the Hokies have a much tougher task at UVA, where the Cavs have won by an average of 16.5 per conference game (and that's against teams better than Virginia Tech). At this point in the season, I feel bad for Erick Green, a phenomenal basketball player stranded with absolutely no help whatsoever.

[19]Virginia hosts [159]Virginia Tech

Wednesday has actual basketball this week, rather than 17-and-18-year-old kids putting on hats. The marquee, of course, is Duke-UNC round 1, in Cameron. The road team won both games in last year's series, but this year's Tar Heel team has, to put it politely, struggled away from home. Undercard games include Miami traveling to Florida State and Wake traveling to BC. Don't be fooled by FSU's 5-5 record into thinking that this could be a tough game for Miami - the five wins have come by a combined 15 points, the five losses by a combined 93. The Noles are 11th in the conference on offense and 10th on defense and may give Virginia Tech a run for worst team when it's all said and done.

[115]Florida State hosts [8]Miami
[120]Boston College hosts [134]Wake Forest
[6]Duke hosts [46]North Carolina

Thursday Clemson visits Georgia Tech - Brad Brownell is 4-17 overall on the road in the ACC as Clemson's head coach, but a perfect 2-0 at Georgia Tech.

[71]Georgia Tech hosts [97]Clemson

Friday is dark.

Saturday has a full slate of action. The two biggest games are Virginia and UNC and Duke at Maryland. Both are return trips where the road team was a comfortable victor at home (Virginia by 9, Duke by 20). Both home teams could use a statement win on their tournament resumes (although UNC will still have home dates with NCSU and Duke). Virginia and Duke have both struggled (relatively) on the road - the Cavs are 2-3 but those 3 losses are to Wake, Clemson, and Georgia Tech; Duke is now 3-2 but has only really looked good on the road against Florida State. Maryland has essentially a full week to get up for this one - it's a dangerous game for Duke, which will be coming off of an emotional rivalry game, regardless of how it turns out (although, Duke has won all but 1 of its post-UNC games over the last 5 years). The rest of the Saturday slate is pretty unappetizing - Florida State hosts Boston College; Wake hosts Georgia Tech; and the Wolfpack hosts Virginia Tech (tough week for the Hokies, on the road in Charlottesville and Raleigh).

[115]Florida State hosts [120]Boston College
[46]North Carolina hosts [19]Virginia
[29]NC State hosts [159]Virginia Tech
[134]Wake Forest hosts [71]Georgia Tech
[59]Maryland hosts [6]Duke

Sunday features Miami on the road again, likely looking for road win #7 with a trip to Clemson.

[97]Clemson hosts [8]Miami

ACC Non-Conference Record: 115-37
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 19-18
(note - now that non-conference play is done the detailed record by conference won't be re-posted until we hit tournament play).

[vick]

No surprise that UVa wins easily against VT, though I didn't expect Green to struggle quite that much. Another excellent line from Joe Harris:

7-12 (5-7 3 pointers), 7-7 FTs for 26 points, along with 4 boards and 1 assist with only one turnover.

He is absolutely playing at a first-team ACC level, though I suspect voters will be overly swayed by counting stats and thus not give him the credit he deserves because Virginia plays a slow pace.

[Olympic Fan]

Duke is basically Maryland's last chance to get a resume win.

They don't play Miami or NC State (a top 20 RPI team) the rest of the way. It's the perfect scenario if they are going to do it -- they got Duke coming off the UNC game with less than 72 hours to prepare while they and they've got all week to get ready.

It's pretty much their last gasp to be an NCAA team.

I also think Wednesday's Wake at BC game is interesting. Not only is it a battle to avoid last place, but Wake coach Jeff Bzdelik is 1-21 on the road in the ACC ... his one win came last season at BC.

[mr. synellinden]

Duke is basically Maryland's last chance to get a resume win.

They don't play Miami or NC State (a top 20 RPI team) the rest of the way. It's the perfect scenario if they are going to do it -- they got Duke coming off the UNC game with less than 72 hours to prepare while they and they've got all week to get ready.

It's pretty much their last gasp to be an NCAA team.

I also think Wednesday's Wake at BC game is interesting. Not only is it a battle to avoid last place, but Wake coach Jeff Bzdelik is 1-21 on the road in the ACC ... his one win came last season at BC.

FSU is off to a pretty great start against Miami. Up 11-2 at the first TV timeout.

[OldSchool]

FSU is off to a pretty great start against Miami. Up 11-2 at the first TV timeout.

Florida State used so much energy punching Miami in the mouth to start the game that their adrenaline buzz wore off. Hamilton should have used a timeout just for for his guys to catch their breath.

[sporthenry]

FSU is off to a pretty great start against Miami. Up 11-2 at the first TV timeout.

Well that at least explains something. ESPN tells me FSU is giving all Miami can handle. Turn it on and its 27-18.

[mr. synellinden]

Florida State used so much energy punching Miami in the mouth to start the game that their adrenaline buzz wore off. Hamilton should have used a timeout just for for his guys to catch their breath.

Yeah - very careless with the ball and making poor decisions. Also, Miami finally woke up on offense. However, I do see Miami's defense exposed a bit. You can break them down and get into the lane - but it's a matter of taking it to them aggressively - be willing to get your shot blocked but draw fouls.

[sagegrouse]

Clemson leads Georgia Tech 20-15 AT THE HALF. Yowza!! 29 percent shooting trumps 17 percent every time. On ESPN Full Court.

sagegrouse

[sagegrouse]

Clemson leads Georgia Tech 20-15 AT THE HALF. Yowza!! 29 percent shooting trumps 17 percent every time. On ESPN Full Court.

sagegrouse

Clemson prevailed over GT, 56-53. Each team scored more points in the second half (36, 38) than both teams combined scored in the first half (35). I can't figure whether the illegal drugs kicked in after intermission or the illegal drups wore off by halftime. Whatever. Good win for Clemson -- first conference win on the road.

sagegrouse

[Olympic Fan]

Clemson prevailed over GT, 56-53. Each team scored more points in the second half (36, 38) than both teams combined scored in the first half (35). I can't figure whether the illegal drugs kicked in after intermission or the illegal drups wore off by halftime. Whatever. Good win for Clemson -- first conference win on the road.

sagegrouse

They showed a lot of grit. After leading the entire first half, they let Georgia Tech catch up midway through the second half. With McCandlish rocking, they go on a run to open up a 10-point lead. Tech fights back and gets within a possession -- thanks to some poor FT shooting in the clutch. Amazing defensive play by Milt Jennings at the end, blocking a potential game-tying 3 ... not just blocking it, but essentially taking it out of the shooter's hands and going the other way to run off the final seconds.

I wonder if the momentum of this game will carry over into Sunday's game with Miami. Littlejohn has been a tough place to play (Brad Brownell is 18-5 there against ACC foes) and Miami has been less than awe-onspiring on the road in the ACC (one-point wins at BC and NC State -- which was without Brown -- and a tough win at a struggling FSU this week).

If Clemson wasn't so inept from the foul line in the clutch (it cost them the State game), I'd almost pick the upset.

[Bob Green]

In keeping with home team dominance, which has been prevelent throughout this season, Duke is the only road team favored today. In other games:

Florida State is favored by 5.5 points over Boston College.
Carolina is favored by 4.5 points over Virginia.
State is favored by 15 points over Virginia Tech.
Wake Forest is favored by 3 points over Georgia Tech.

[TruBlu]

Huge game for UNC and UVA today. UNC is doing a balancing act between the NCAA Tourney and the NIT Tourney. A loss for UNC today would put them at 6-6 in the ACC, and could push them more toward their 2nd NIT adventure in the last 4 years.

I will be pulling for UVA in this one, as I usually pull for the school with the higher academic standards. (That, and I never pull for UNC in anything, against anybody.)

Besides, getting a big name school like UNC (again!) would help the NIT viewership with the Walmart crowd.

[OldPhiKap]

Besides, getting a big name school like UNC (again!) would help the NIT viewership with the Walmart crowd.

I have been wondering about this. Back in the day, the NcAA would want the biggest names for tv and revenue purposes. Now that the NcAA owns both, you wonder if the thought of big names in the NIT (with home game tickets on top) is the bigger money play.

Not that money has anything to do with it, of course.

Go CavHoos!

[timmy c]

UVA is 8-3 in ACC play, but sitting squarely on the bubble. (Lunardi lists they as last four in)

Kenpom predicts UVa over Unc, 64-63. I hope he's right.

[pfrduke]

UVA is 8-3 in ACC play, but sitting squarely on the bubble. (Lunardi lists they as last four in)

Kenpom predicts UVa over Unc, 64-63. I hope he's right.

Actually, he's got 64-63 in UNC's favor. But either way, tight game.

[cptnflash]

Actually, he's got 64-63 in UNC's favor. But either way, tight game.

Coin toss. UVa is the better team, but UNC is at home. Let's hope Harris has a good game and the Cavaliers can pull it out. Roy starting Hairston again. No surprise there.

[OldPhiKap]

Coin toss. UVa is the better team, but UNC is at home. Let's hope Harris has a good game and the Cavaliers can pull it out. Roy starting Hairston again. No surprise there.

UVa starting well, keep it up!

[davekay1971]

UVa starting well, keep it up!

Amen. Keep it going, Wahoos!

8 Fouls on UVa to 3 on the Heels. Can't see the game right now, just checking the box score. Is it being called badly, or is UVa really hacking a lot more than Carolina?

[CDu]

Amen. Keep it going, Wahoos!

8 Fouls on UVa to 3 on the Heels. Can't see the game right now, just checking the box score. Is it being called badly, or is UVa really hacking a lot more than Carolina?

UNC really doesn't foul much (mainly because they don't play physical defense and don't challenge many shots). Also, UVa doesn't really attack the basket (which is the way to draw fouls). So I don't think it's that surprising that the Heels have fewer fouls.

[timmy c]

Actually, he's got 64-63 in UNC's favor. But either way, tight game.

You're right. Thanks for the correction.

Come on Hooooos!

[cptnflash]

I think it's fair to say the pace favors the Heels so far in this one. 40-40 at the half!

[davekay1971]

Hairston with 14 points in the first half. I think we really gave Roy too much advice. Not that he needs advice. He knows what he's doing...just ask him.

[vick]

I think it's fair to say the pace favors the Heels so far in this one. 40-40 at the half!

Really, the pace hasn't been all that quick--34 possessions (http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=14613) vs. the 66 for the game Kenpom predicted, so only one possession above expectation. Both teams have just been really efficient--it turns out taking shots away from the inefficient McAdoo and giving them to the efficient Hairston makes the offense more efficient in general! Great find, Roy!

[cptnflash]

Really, the pace hasn't been all that quick--34 possessions (http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=14613) vs. the 66 for the game Kenpom predicted, so only one possession above expectation. Both teams have just been really efficient--it turns out taking shots away from the inefficient McAdoo and giving them to the efficient Hairston makes the offense more efficient in general! Great find, Roy!

Carolina averages 72.5 possessions per game, UVa averages 60.5, so a pace of 68 is closer to Carolina's tempo than Virginia's.

[CDu]

Carolina averages 72.5 possessions per game, UVa averages 60.5, so a pace of 68 is closer to Carolina's tempo than Virginia's.

At the half, it was 34 possessions, instead an expected 33.25. That's hardly a substantial edge in pace for UNC.

[vick]

Carolina averages 72.5 possessions per game, UVa averages 60.5, so a pace of 68 is closer to Carolina's tempo than Virginia's.

Sure, by one possession in a half. But by far the biggest reason the score is relatively high is the very high offensive efficiency at which this game is being played.

[cptnflash]

Unless something changes drastically in the last 9 minutes, this game is going to wind up over 70 possessions, very close to UNC's season average. The first game, which UVa won, had 63 possessions, much closer to Virginia's season average. UNC is clearly controlling the pace in this game, to their considerable advantage.

[CDu]

Sure, by one possession in a half. But by far the biggest reason the score is relatively high is the very high offensive efficiency at which this game is being played.

Yup, we're over 30 minutes into the game, and both teams are shooting an eFG% of WELL over 50% (both are actually above 50% FG% even). Efficiency, not pace, is the primary reason for the high score.

[ice-9]

They showed a lot of grit. After leading the entire first half, they let Georgia Tech catch up midway through the second half. With McCandlish rocking, they go on a run to open up a 10-point lead. Tech fights back and gets within a possession -- thanks to some poor FT shooting in the clutch. Amazing defensive play by Milt Jennings at the end, blocking a potential game-tying 3 ... not just blocking it, but essentially taking it out of the shooter's hands and going the other way to run off the final seconds.

I wonder if the momentum of this game will carry over into Sunday's game with Miami. Littlejohn has been a tough place to play (Brad Brownell is 18-5 there against ACC foes) and Miami has been less than awe-onspiring on the road in the ACC (one-point wins at BC and NC State -- which was without Brown -- and a tough win at a struggling FSU this week).

If Clemson wasn't so inept from the foul line in the clutch (it cost them the State game), I'd almost pick the upset.

If they don't lose at Clemson, my shoot-for-the-stars pick is a Miami loss at Wake Forest. WF has been a surprisingly decent team at home, having beaten UVA, NC State, and walloped Florida State. And Miami just might be overlooking the Deacons given their poor overall record.

[Bob Green]

P.J. Hairston starts, plays 29 minutes, scores 29 points, makes 50 percent of his 3 pointers (6-12) and grabs 7 rebounds as Carolina beats Virginia in a critical game. Whudda thunk it? That dadgum Roy is a genius!

[vick]

Yup, we're over 30 minutes into the game, and both teams are shooting an eFG% of WELL over 50% (both are actually above 50% FG% even). Efficiency, not pace, is the primary reason for the high score.

So, the Kenpom predicted score was 64-63 UNC on 66 possessions (or 0.97 PPP for UNC). Rounding off possessions, it wound up 93-81 on 68 possessions (1.37 PPP). So the difference in UNC's point total is:

(68-66)*0.97 = 2 points from faster-than-expected pace
(1.37-0.97)*68 = 27 points from better-than-expected efficiency

I don't doubt that UVa would have liked the game played slower, but the dominant reason UNC won was their outstanding offensive efficiency, which was caused primarily by a high eFG as they shot and hit many three pointers.

Amazingly to me, they did this despite yet another mediocre game from McAdoo, who pulled off a decidedly blah 4-10 FG, 1-4 FT, 3 TO, 1 AST, 2 ORB line at the offensive end.

[davekay1971]

P.J. Hairston starts, plays 29 minutes, scores 29 points, makes 50 percent of his 3 pointers (6-12) and grabs 7 rebounds as Carolina beats Virginia in a critical game. Whudda thunk it? That dadgum Roy is a genius!

Thank God it took Roy till February to start reading DBR...

[Bob Green]

All kidding aside, we can stop writing Carolina's obituary. With Coach Williams going small for the second game in a row and playing his five starters right at 30 minutes each, it appears he has made a midseason adjustment, similar to the move he made two seasons ago inserting Kendall Marshall as a starter, which will salvage the season and solidify an NCAA Tournament bid. So much for all the NIT talk.

[ChillinDuke]

All kidding aside, we can stop writing Carolina's obituary. With Coach Williams going small for the second game in a row and playing his five starters right at 30 minutes each, it appears he has made a midseason adjustment, similar to the move he made two seasons ago inserting Kendall Marshall as a starter, which will salvage the season and solidify an NCAA Tournament bid. So much for all the NIT talk.

2nd post of the day for me, and I find myself agreeing with Bob again.

I think this new lineup has done it. UNC should make it now. Especially with the UVA game being one of their "must-wins" by my estimation (others being 2x Duke and 1x NC State - obviously the Duke game already ended in an L).

I will now submit to UNC likely being in the field. But they are now fighting for a single-digit seed.

For whatever it's worth, Lunardi has them in the First Four In category as of his last assessment - so they would have to play in one of the "play-in" games which are technically the 1st Round now in the tourney, likely as a #12 seed.

- Chillin

[vick]

State down two to VT at the half, at home. I would still bet on State to pull it out, but losing this one would be a catastrophe for them, in my opinion. The good thing for State is, their schedule is pretty friendly for the rest of the way, but if you lose to VT at home...that's trouble. Getting Brown back doesn't seem to be nearly the boost a lot of people (in fairness, myself included) seemed to think it would be, at least yet.

[devildeac]

P.J. Hairston starts, plays 29 minutes, scores 29 points, makes 50 percent of his 3 pointers (6-12) and grabs 7 rebounds as Carolina beats Virginia in a critical game. Whudda thunk it? That dadgum Roy is a genius!

Next time, don't post your suggestions for unc game strategies on DBR where ol roy might read them;) (just kidding, Bob).

[Frobisher]

VTech with the miracle play to force OT.

[devildeac]

State down two to VT at the half, at home. I would still bet on State to pull it out, but losing this one would be a catastrophe for them, in my opinion. The good thing for State is, their schedule is pretty friendly for the rest of the way, but if you lose to VT at home...that's trouble. Getting Brown back doesn't seem to be nearly the boost a lot of people (in fairness, myself included) seemed to think it would be, at least yet.

New NCSU motto: We rarely fail to disappoint.

Just let VT get a tip-in on a missed FT with about 4 seconds to go to tie the game and then State missed a long 3 to win. On to OT. Sheesh.

[rsvman]

Anybody see it?

Tech down three, Green at the line. Makes the first, deliberately misses the second one wide right. Teammate screams down the right side of the lane, corrals the rebound and puts it in off the glass, sending it to OT.

Pretty exciting.

[jv001]

Anybody see it?

Tech down three, Green at the line. Makes the first, deliberately misses the second one wide right. Teammate screams down the right side of Kane, corrals the rebound and puts it in off the glass, sending it to OT.

Pretty exciting.

In golf he would not have been allowed to use that cane. Oh wait you said Kane, my bad, lol. GoDuke!

[FerryFor50]

NCSU has shot 35 FTs. VT has shot 7.

Kind of mind boggling and hard to believe.

[Frobisher]

NCSU has shot 35 FTs. VT has shot 7.

Kind of mind boggling and hard to believe.

Only one VT player has shot those FTs.

[rsvman]

Um........
It was a typo/autocorrect deal. Thanks for focusing on an irrelevant detail and missing the whole point of the post.

[jv001]

Um........
It was a typo/autocorrect deal. Thanks for focusing on an irrelevant detail and missing the whole point of the post.

you're welcome, it was just a joke. GoDuke!

[dukelifer]

Anybody see it?

Tech down three, Green at the line. Makes the first, deliberately misses the second one wide right. Teammate screams down the right side of the lane, corrals the rebound and puts it in off the glass, sending it to OT.

Pretty exciting.

Maybe a violation but well executed, nevertheless. The Hokies are not awful. They play hard and have a great scorer in Green. They have played most teams very close. Will not be easy in Blacksburg.

[davekay1971]

New NCSU motto: We rarely fail to disappoint.

Just let VT get a tip-in on a missed FT with about 4 seconds to go to tie the game and then State missed a long 3 to win. On to OT. Sheesh.

Cheering for State will make your head explode. In fact, State ought to come with a Surgeon General's warning to that effect.

Surgeon General's Warning:
Supporting this team in any sports endeavors, particularly Men's Basketball, increases your risk for the following: Gastric ulcers, psychosis, anxiety disorder, depression, alcohol abuse, broken knuckles secondary to impulsive punching of furniture, broken televisions, broken remote controls, unintentional frightening of pets and small children when you scream in frustration, and spontaneous head explosion.

[cptnflash]

I think the Tigers have a decent shot of winning tonight against Miami. They appear to match up reasonably well - Jennings has the size to hang with Kadji, Rod Hall has the quickness and athleticism to deal with Larkin, and Booker is strong enough to counter Gamble and Johnson inside. They're also at home, and have the benefit of being in full desperation mode, as they absolutely have to win this game (and a bunch more in a row) to have any shot at the NCAA tournament. Meanwhile, Miami has basically already sown up the ACC regular season thanks to our loss yesterday, and it is starting to feel like they're getting a little full of themselves (Mark Titus pointed this out in a Grantland article last week). I wouldn't be surprised to see them give less than 100% tonight and get beaten by an inferior team.

[pfrduke]

Clemson and Miami have combined to start 4-26 from the floor including 1-12 from 3. It's 9 minutes into the game and it's 8-2 Miami. Ugh.

[Bob Green]

18-16 Miami at the half. A real display of offensive firepower by both teams.

[FerryFor50]

A total of 8 team fouls for both sides, just 5 FT attempts in the Miami/Clemson first half.

My guess is that they're "letting them play."

Gives new meaning to the "ACC/Big 10 challenge."

[cptnflash]

Weird that Littlejohn Coliseum is so quite that you can hear the bounce of the ball on the broadcast. This is a tie game against the #3 ranked team in the country. Come on Tigers fans! Make some freakin' noise!

[cptnflash]

Devin Booker doing his best to keep Miami in the game by bricking free throws.

[pamtar]

Tough call there against Clempsen. I'll have to agree with j-will that it was a block.

[loran16]

Devin Booker doing his best to keep Miami in the game by bricking free throws.

It wouldn't be Clemson if they didn't have FT issues. They've only had FT%s within the top 200 NCAA BB teams twice in the last ten years and never better than average.

[cptnflash]

Clemson had a 4 point lead and the ball with barely a minute to go... and blew it. Missed free throws were the killer. They never should have been in a position to have a bad block/charge call (and it was a bad call) beat them.

[pfrduke]

Clemson shot 33.3% from 2, 23.5% from 3, and 38.5% from the line. That's ghastly. Talk about struggling to put the ball in the basket.

On the whole, the teams combined to hit 35 of 108 shots from the field. If we want to talk about games setting college basketball back a few years, that's a textbook example.

[Durham Thunder]

Seriously, what is the deal? If Miami is having this much luck in one season, in games like NC State and Clemson, that's BS.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Yeah, pretty much only Clemson's incompetence saved Miami from a bad loss. I wasn't able to watch a lot of the game, but it seemed like they were putting a ton of ball pressure on Larkin, forcing the ball out of his hands, and Miami was getting pretty good looks from 3 point range, but for most of the game, they just couldn't buy one. Kadji finally hit that big one at the end.

It would take a concerted effort by Miami to lose the ACC at this point, and this may serve as a bit of a wake up call before Tuesday's difficult matchup with UVA.

[sporthenry]

So now Miami has 3 last second wins. Still think this comes back to bite them in the NCAAT. They'll run into an 8 or 9 seed that may not be as talented as NC State but will close them out. Some of these 8/9 seeds like Illinois, or Missouri or even UCLA are going to be tough second round match ups.

[DBFAN]

So now Miami has 3 last second wins. Still think this comes back to bite them in the NCAAT. They'll run into an 8 or 9 seed that may not be as talented as NC State but will close them out. Some of these 8/9 seeds like Illinois, or Missouri or even UCLA are going to be tough second round match ups.

That is exactly what I think every time I see them play. I still don't think they win the ACC tourney because they are gonna have to motivate the selves to play a lesser opponent. And if they manage to do that, they will not be aware of the feeling of playing 2 to 3 days in a row. I pretty sure although not 100% that they are not extremely deep, and conference tourneys are all about managing those tired legs. Lord Reggie can barely get up and down the court as it is.

[Durham Thunder]

Yeah Clemson choked it up in the last 30, the same way NC State did. I'm so irritated; WHEN was the last team a team got this many tense/lucky wins in 1 season?

[cptnflash]

Yeah Clemson choked it up in the last 30, the same way NC State did. I'm so irritated; WHEN was the last team a team got this many tense/lucky wins in 1 season?

Of their 21 wins, only 3 have been of the close/tense variety - Boston College, NC State, and Clemson. You don't have to look any further than last year's Duke team to find a similar example - it took a late 3 from Andre to win our first game of the year against Belmont, Rivers' buzzer beater to get a win in Chapel Hill, and a last minute comeback and then overtime to beat Virginia Tech at home. It's a lot more common than you might think. It's true that Miami has been a little bit lucky this year, but not inordinately so.

[Duvall]

Of their 21 wins, only 3 have been of the close/tense variety - Boston College, NC State, and Clemson. You don't have to look any further than last year's Duke team to find a similar example - it took a late 3 from Andre to win our first game of the year against Belmont, Rivers' buzzer beater to get a win in Chapel Hill, and a last minute comeback and then overtime to beat Virginia Tech at home.

But which way does *that* cut?

[Cameron]

Since I don't care about "winning" the ACC regular-season, aside from simply wanting to win every game that Duke plays, as a devoted and loyal fan of the ACC, I am elated to see Miami play as well as it has (excluding our game, of course). The Hurricanes are straight repping the ACC right now in the national polls and as they keep winning they are putting themselves in tremendous position to earn a number one seed in the Big Dance. If we take care of our own business, we could do the very same thing and possibly procure two top seeds for our great conference. What's not to love about that? I am teeming with joy. ACC.

Plus, I won $70 on the Miami moneyline.

[sporthenry]

Of their 21 wins, only 3 have been of the close/tense variety - Boston College, NC State, and Clemson. You don't have to look any further than last year's Duke team to find a similar example - it took a late 3 from Andre to win our first game of the year against Belmont, Rivers' buzzer beater to get a win in Chapel Hill, and a last minute comeback and then overtime to beat Virginia Tech at home. It's a lot more common than you might think. It's true that Miami has been a little bit lucky this year, but not inordinately so.

But how did Duke's season end last year? I don't think Miami would be happy to go out like Duke did last year. The point is letting teams, especially worse teams hang around, is not a good sign especially come tournament time where it is 1 and done. Of course everyone will have close scares but last year UK had a 1 point win versus a good UNC team, and 1 point loss to a solid IU team.

Miami is still a good team but in a 1 loss format where they don't exactly have experience. I'm still not buying. Do that against UCLA or Illinois and they will close the game out. How are they going to get up for a game in Lexington at 1 PM against an unheralded team.

[FerryFor50]

But how did Duke's season end last year? I don't think Miami would be happy to go out like Duke did last year. The point is letting teams, especially worse teams hang around, is not a good sign especially come tournament time where it is 1 and done. Of course everyone will have close scares but last year UK had a 1 point win versus a good UNC team, and 1 point loss to a solid IU team.

Miami is still a good team but in a 1 loss format where they don't exactly have experience. I'm still not buying. Do that against UCLA or Illinois and they will close the game out. How are they going to get up for a game in Lexington at 1 PM against an unheralded team.

They have also been lucky beyond the close losses. For one, they get a year where UNC stinks most of the year, and play UNC twice before the Heels finally start figuring it out. Then, they get Duke right after the Kelly injury and NCSU right after the Lorenzo Brown injury.

Miami is a good team, but playing way over their heads and getting some lucky bounces. Teams like that are always early outs in the NCAAs.

[Wander]

Are we really talking about a team that beat Duke and Carolina by a combined 53 points as just lucky?

[vick]

Are we really talking about a team that beat Duke and Carolina by a combined 53 points as just lucky?

I don't think anyone is saying they are 'just' lucky, everyone believes they are a really good basketball team. But, just in the last decade, the ACC has had six final four teams, and none of them managed to escape the regular season with fewer than two losses:

04: Duke (3)
04: Georgia Tech (7)
05: UNC (2)
08: UNC (2)
09: UNC (3)
10: Duke (3)

I don't think it's unfair to simultaneously believe 1) Miami is a very good team who might well make the final four and 2) they are a little bit fortunate to be 12-0 instead of 11-1 or 10-2. Then again, I'm also very comfortable saying Duke's seven final fours in nine years also involved both great teams and a bit of good luck, so maybe that's just a way I see the world that others don't, which is fine by me.

Put differently, I'm fine saying that a team that just won by 2 while their opponent shot 5-13 at the free throw line is both good and fortunate.

[OldPhiKap]

Good teams put themselves in position to get lucky. What's the old saying -- "luck" is where preparation meets opportunity? Something like that.

As long as they lose @ Duke.

[Indoor66]

Good teams put themselves in position to get lucky. What's the old saying -- "luck" is where preparation meets opportunity? Something like that.

As long as they lose @ Duke.

Or Gary Player's famous "The harder I practice the luckier I get"?

[sagegrouse]

Good teams put themselves in position to get lucky. What's the old saying -- "luck" is where preparation meets opportunity? Something like that.

As long as they lose @ Duke.


Or Gary Player's famous "The harder I practice the luckier I get"?

"Luck is the residue of design." -- Branch Rickey (1881-1965)

[FerryFor50]

Good teams put themselves in position to get lucky. What's the old saying -- "luck" is where preparation meets opportunity? Something like that.

As long as they lose @ Duke.

So they prepared so hard that Ryan Kelly's foot gave out and Lorenzo Brown turned his ankle?

That's some preparation!

[Duvall]

So they prepared so hard that Ryan Kelly's foot gave out and Lorenzo Brown turned his ankle?

That's some preparation!

Look, the kind of free throw defense that Miami displayed in its games against Maryland (8-18) and Clemson (5-13) doesn't happen by accident.

[Wander]

I don't think it's unfair to simultaneously believe 1) Miami is a very good team who might well make the final four and 2) they are a little bit fortunate to be 12-0 instead of 11-1 or 10-2.

Totally fair, it's just some are suggesting that Miami has been exposed as a not-that-good-team or would be lucky to make the Sweet 16, which I find a little ridiculous. And I'd find it a lot easier to buy into the "Miami was lucky to get Duke without Kelly" meme if we had lost by 7 instead of 27, but as valuable as he is, Ryan isn't worth 28+ points to the team, so it's sort of lame to use that as an excuse. But I agree with your above quote.

[devildeac]

Cheering for State will make your head explode. In fact, State ought to come with a Surgeon General's warning to that effect.

Surgeon General's Warning:
Supporting this team in any sports endeavors, particularly Men's Basketball, increases your risk for the following: Gastric ulcers, psychosis, anxiety disorder, depression, alcohol abuse, broken knuckles secondary to impulsive punching of furniture, broken televisions, broken remote controls, unintentional frightening of pets and small children when you scream in frustration, and spontaneous head explosion .


Surgeon General's Warning:
Supporting this team in any sports endeavors, particularly Men's Basketball, increases your risk for the following: Gastric ulcers, psychosis, anxiety disorder, depression, alcohol abuse, broken knuckles secondary to impulsive punching of furniture, broken televisions, broken remote controls, unintentional frightening of pets and small children when you scream in frustration, spontaneous head explosion
AND heart attacks .

Fixed it for you;).

[Kedsy]

Totally fair, it's just some are suggesting that Miami has been exposed as a not-that-good-team or would be lucky to make the Sweet 16, which I find a little ridiculous. And I'd find it a lot easier to buy into the "Miami was lucky to get Duke without Kelly" meme if we had lost by 7 instead of 27, but as valuable as he is, Ryan isn't worth 28+ points to the team, so it's sort of lame to use that as an excuse. But I agree with your above quote.

Is Nerlens Noel, good as he is, worth 40 points (difference between UK's 10 point win over UT with and 30 point loss w/o him)? There's a cascade effect when an important player goes out and after things get out of hand if the team gets overwhelmed emotionally, the snowball can get really big. To me, asking if an individual player is "worth 28+ points to the team" is missing the point.

That said, I agree with you that dwelling on Miami's "luck" in getting Duke with Ryan injured is also missing the point. Nothing we've seen so far has "exposed" Miami in any way.

[Wander]

Is Nerlens Noel, good as he is, worth 40 points (difference between UK's 10 point win over UT with and 30 point loss w/o him)? There's a cascade effect when an important player goes out and after things get out of hand if the team gets overwhelmed emotionally, the snowball can get really big. To me, asking if an individual player is "worth 28+ points to the team" is missing the point.


The simplest conclusion is that Duke would have lost to Miami and Kentucky would have lost to Tennessee even if Kelly and Noel were healthy, but by a lesser margin. I agree with you that we can't guarantee either of those results, but it's the most likely scenario.

[sporthenry]

Totally fair, it's just some are suggesting that Miami has been exposed as a not-that-good-team or would be lucky to make the Sweet 16, which I find a little ridiculous. And I'd find it a lot easier to buy into the "Miami was lucky to get Duke without Kelly" meme if we had lost by 7 instead of 27, but as valuable as he is, Ryan isn't worth 28+ points to the team, so it's sort of lame to use that as an excuse. But I agree with your above quote.

Who said they'd be lucky to make the S16? I assume that is in response to me saying that they'll be in a dogfight in the second round if they keep this up and somehow interpreting it as, they'll be lucky. No. All I said was that if they show this type of performance in the 2nd round of an NCAAT, they will be in a prime position to lose. Notice, didn't say any luck would be involved. But put up 45 points versus UCLA or Illinois and see how that ends.

And this was 45 points in the ACC. We make fun of the Big 10 for being slow. Lowest output from Indiana this year has been 59 points versus Wisconsin. If they played like they did at Clemson or at BC versus NC State or Duke, they'd probably be looking at a 20 point loss. And if BC or Clemson had closed them out, they'd be looking at a loss that is equivalent to St. Johns or Purdue beating Indiana or a Syracuse. You would stop hearing the talk about Miami being underrated despite receiving 1st place votes last week or about them being the hottest team in basketball.

And yes, this Duke team only won by 1 at BC as well. But many here are in agreement that we aren't a F4 team without Kelly. And if Duke plays like they did at BC, which almost seems like a coin flip proposition, they'll be out very quickly in the NCAAT.

I am in no way saying Miami isn't or can't be good but they can be bad as well. And teams that are going to win it all need to be consistent. I'm not saying they should be dropped out of the top 10 or top 25 but that they are more in line with that 2nd tier of teams like Syracuse or Kansas. And I'm half expecting them to win in Cameron and then this whole narrative will be even worse.

[sagegrouse]

Who said they'd be lucky to make the S16? I assume that is in response to me saying that they'll be in a dogfight in the second round if they keep this up and somehow interpreting it as, they'll be lucky. No. All I said was that if they show this type of performance in the 2nd round of an NCAAT, they will be in a prime position to lose. Notice, didn't say any luck would be involved. But put up 45 points versus UCLA or Illinois and see how that ends.

And this was 45 points in the ACC. We make fun of the Big 10 for being slow. Lowest output from Indiana this year has been 59 points versus Wisconsin. If they played like they did at Clemson or at BC versus NC State or Duke, they'd probably be looking at a 20 point loss. And if BC or Clemson had closed them out, they'd be looking at a loss that is equivalent to St. Johns or Purdue beating Indiana or a Syracuse. You would stop hearing the talk about Miami being underrated despite receiving 1st place votes last week or about them being the hottest team in basketball.

And yes, this Duke team only won by 1 at BC as well. But many here are in agreement that we aren't a F4 team without Kelly. And if Duke plays like they did at BC, which almost seems like a coin flip proposition, they'll be out very quickly in the NCAAT.

I am in no way saying Miami isn't or can't be good but they can be bad as well. And teams that are going to win it all need to be consistent. I'm not saying they should be dropped out of the top 10 or top 25 but that they are more in line with that 2nd tier of teams like Syracuse or Kansas. And I'm half expecting them to win in Cameron and then this whole narrative will be even worse.

Fact is, no one knows how Miami will perform in the NCAA's, given how new the experience will be for the Hurricanes. There are three factors, however, in their favor: (1) A good seed, ensuring a fairly easy game to get settled. (2) Coach Larranaga, who is not only an excellent coach but has "been there, done that" with teams with lesser talent. (3) The age and experience of the players on this senior-laden team with -- what is it? -- three fifth and sixth-year players.

I would be surprised to see the 'Canes lose the first weekend. But after that, I wouldn't be surprised at anything, including either a Sweet Sixteen loss or a National Championship.

sagegrouse

sagegrouse

[FerryFor50]

Some more luck for the Canes... They get busted for violations and the NCAA botches the investigation so bad that they likely will get away with most of it.

[Wander]

And I'd find it a lot easier to buy into the "Miami was lucky to get Duke without Kelly" meme if we had lost by 7 instead of 27, but as valuable as he is, Ryan isn't worth 28+ points to the team, so it's sort of lame to use that as an excuse.

Well... oops.

[dukelifer]

Fact is, no one knows how Miami will perform in the NCAA's, given how new the experience will be for the Hurricanes. There are three factors, however, in their favor: (1) A good seed, ensuring a fairly easy game to get settled. (2) Coach Larranaga, who is not only an excellent coach but has "been there, done that" with teams with lesser talent. (3) The age and experience of the players on this senior-laden team with -- what is it? -- three fifth and sixth-year players.

I would be surprised to see the 'Canes lose the first weekend. But after that, I wouldn't be surprised at anything, including either a Sweet Sixteen loss or a National Championship.

sagegrouse

sagegrouse
Stop Larkin and you can probably beat them. He might have trouble with a team with long guards.