ACC Midseason Awards

[Bob Green]

Midseason Awards from the News & Observer:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/02/08/2664504/acc-basketball-midseason-awards.html

Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry are 1st Team along with Kenny Kadji, Richard Howell and Erick Green. Plumlee is Player of the Year and Rasheed Sulaimon is Rookie of the Year. Jim Larranaga is Coach of the Year.

2nd Team: C.J. Leslie, Shane Larkin, Durrand Scott, James McAddo and Lorenzo Brown.

3rd Team: Ryan Anderson, Travis McKie, Michael Snaer, Joe Harris and Reggie Bullock.

Obviously any "award" at midseason is useless (as are preseason awards), but it is interesting to discuss them.

[devildeac]

Midseason Awards from the News & Observer:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/02/08/2664504/acc-basketball-midseason-awards.html

Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry are 1st Team along with Kenny Kadji, Richard Howell and Erick Green. Plumlee is Player of the Year and Rasheed Sulaimon is Rookie of the Year. Jim Larranaga is Coach of the Year.

2nd Team: C.J. Leslie, Shane Larkin, Durrand Scott, James McAddo and Lorenzo Brown.

3rd Team: Ryan Anderson, Travis McKie, Michael Snaer, Joe Harris and Reggie Bullock.

Obviously any "award" at midseason is useless (as are preseason awards), but it is interesting to discuss them.

Wonder where Ryan Kelly would be listed if he had not been injured for the last several weeks:(.

[davekay1971]

RK would probably be 2nd or 3rd team (doubtful that he'd be underappreciated enough to be left off entirely). The only other Duke player I'd quibble with is Quinn, who has played as one of the top 2 ACC point guards this season (only Lorenzo Brown has been arguably better).

[Newton_14]

McAdoo 2nd Team? What a joke. Especially with Bullock listed as 3rd team....

Ryan would have been 2nd Team at this point with the way he was playing...

[Bob Green]

The only other Duke player I'd quibble with is Quinn, who has played as one of the top 2 ACC point guards this season (only Lorenzo Brown has been arguably better).

I agree Quinn has been superb, but Shane Larkin deserves all the recognition he is receiving.

[cptnflash]

McAdoo 2nd Team? What a joke. Especially with Bullock listed as 3rd team....

Agreed, this is absurd. McAdoo is the classic anti-Moneyball player - looks great in the uniform so people ascribe a greater level of production to him than what is evident in the data.

Nice to see Richard Howell get his due though. That guy is seriously underrated nationally.

[rthomas]

Quinn might be Most Improved Player.

[CDu]

Agreed, this is absurd. McAdoo is the classic anti-Moneyball player - looks great in the uniform so people ascribe a greater level of production to him than what is evident in the data.

Nice to see Richard Howell get his due though. That guy is seriously underrated nationally.

McAdoo's inclusion is just further evidence that the ACC media gives these honors primarily on count stats. If you only look at his major count stats (15.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg), McAdoo looks really productive. It is only when you look at efficiency (or actually watch him play) that you realize he stinks.

[Matches]

Larranga seems to me to be a shoo-in for COY unless Miami implodes over the next 8 games. I think Mason has the inside track for POY though Green has been really good. He's carrying a terrible team - however, the fact that they are terrible is going to work against him.

[jimsumner]

Larranga seems to me to be a shoo-in for COY unless Miami implodes over the next 8 games. I think Mason has the inside track for POY though Green has been really good. He's carrying a terrible team - however, the fact that they are terrible is going to work against him.

I agree that Plumlee and Larranaga are the clear favorites at this point. Could change.

Green is absolutely a first-team All-ACC player. But I don't think he's in the POY mix. The ACC POY award has gone to a player from a team with a losing ACC record only one time. Len Bias won it in 1986 for a Maryland team that went 6-8. And VT is not going to be near 8-10 in the ACC this year. Terrell Stoglin led the ACC in scoring last season and didn't even make 1st-team All-ACC.

There is no recognized Most Improved Player. If there were, Cook would be on the short list.

Agree that McAdoo was over-hyped. However, I wonder what his stat-line would read with a junior Kendall Marshall at point instead of a freshman Marcus Paige.

But McAdoo doesn't come close to being the league's most disappointing player. That dubious distinction goes to Michael Snaer, my pre-season pick for ACC POY. Yea, how's that working for you, Sumner?

[vick]

McAdoo's inclusion is just further evidence that the ACC media gives these honors primarily on count stats. If you only look at his major count stats (15.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg), McAdoo looks really productive. It is only when you look at efficiency (or actually watch him play) that you realize he stinks.

I agree with the consensus that McAdoo is really tough to justify on the second team. I don't think that's the worst pick though. Let's just compare a couple of players:




MP
PTS
REB
AST
STL
BLK
TOV
eFG


Player A
33.3
18.9
5.1
2.6
1.4
0.8
2.2
0.584


Player B
33.2
15.7
7.3
0.9
0.6
0.8
3.2
0.523



Player A's team is 6-3 in conference, Player B's is 5-5. Does anyone want to argue they'd rather have Player B?

Player A is Joe Harris's stats adjusted to NC State's pace, Player B is C.J. Leslie, who I definitely wouldn't argue has some excellent defensive value that doesn't show up in the box score. And Harris is third team while Leslie is second? So I would argue that not only would this team be grossly overvaluing inefficient scoring (McAdoo vs. Bullock), but it also gives players unwarranted credit for playing at a faster pace. I don't think it's unusual for ACC voters to underestimate how important efficient scoring is, though--and in all honesty Austin Rivers being a first team selection last year is a strong example of this.

For what it's worth, my teams would be, in no particular order:

First: Harris, Plumlee, Larkin, Kadji, Green
Second: Bullock, Howell, Curry, Mitchell, Booker

Would have had Brown second team I think but he's missed too much time for me to justify it.

[JNort]

I agree with the consensus that McAdoo is really tough to justify on the second team. I don't think that's the worst pick though. Let's just compare a couple of players:




MP
PTS
REB
AST
STL
BLK
TOV
eFG


Player A
33.3
18.9
5.1
2.6
1.4
0.8
2.2
0.584


Player B
33.2
15.7
7.3
0.9
0.6
0.8
3.2
0.523



Player A's team is 6-3 in conference, Player B's is 5-5. Does anyone want to argue they'd rather have Player B?

Player A is Joe Harris's stats adjusted to NC State's pace, Player B is C.J. Leslie, who I definitely wouldn't argue has some excellent defensive value that doesn't show up in the box score. And Harris is third team while Leslie is second? So I would argue that not only would this team be grossly overvaluing inefficient scoring (McAdoo vs. Bullock), but it also gives players unwarranted credit for playing at a faster pace. I don't think it's unusual for ACC voters to underestimate how important efficient scoring is, though--and in all honesty Austin Rivers being a first team selection last year is a strong example of this.

For what it's worth, my teams would be, in no particular order:

First: Harris, Plumlee, Larkin, Kadji, Green
Second: Bullock, Howell, Curry, Mitchell, Booker

Would have had Brown second team I think but he's missed too much time for me to justify it.


2 and 1/2 games is too much?

[vick]

2 and 1/2 games is too much?

For midseason awards? I would say so. Do you think many people would get votes on the end-of-season team if they missed five games? I would think you'd have to be really, really good to justify that.

ETA: For example, Bobby Hurley missed a number of games in 1992 and made second team. That's the caliber player I believe you have to be in order to do something like that. Brown's a very good player but not close to that level.

[JNort]

For midseason awards? I would say so. Do you think many people would get votes on the end-of-season team if they missed five games? I would think you'd have to be really, really good to justify that.

ETA: For example, Bobby Hurley missed a number of games in 1992 and made second team. That's the caliber player I believe you have to be in order to do something like that. Brown's a very good player but not close to that level.

I disagree obviously, he has missed the past 2 and 1/2 games and State has lost all 3. Before those 3 he was All ACC caliber and when he got hurt his team struggled which to me shows his importance even more. Just my opinion though

[uh_no]

I disagree obviously, he has missed the past 2 and 1/2 games and State has lost all 3. Before those 3 he was All ACC caliber and when he got hurt his team struggled which to me shows his importance even more. Just my opinion though

by that logic ryan ought to be ACC poy! :)

it is unfortunate for injury to curtail a good season, but part of winning the individual player awards is staying healthy to be able to help your team.

[JNort]

by that logic ryan ought to be ACC poy! :)

it is unfortunate for injury to curtail a good season, but part of winning the individual player awards is staying healthy to be able to help your team.

But in Ryan's case he has missed more than 3 games and while he has been sorely sorely missed we did not go 0-3 without him. Not to mention quality big men are more numerous this year than top tier pg's. To me right now it is 1. Lorenzo.............................2. Larkin/Cook.............................................. ....................................4.

The drop from the best PG to Larkin and Cook and then the next tier is greater than it is at the forward slot.

[JNort]

by that logic ryan ought to be ACC poy! :)

it is unfortunate for injury to curtail a good season, but part of winning the individual player awards is staying healthy to be able to help your team.

Although I must admit I was kinda hoping to see him on 3rd team at least... Must be the Blue shades

[uh_no]

Although I must admit I was kinda hoping to see him on 3rd team at least... Must be the Blue shades

not at all....the 4-5 games before he got hurt....he was just incredible.....even if he hadn't gotten hurt, I think he'd be a long shot.....he started the season a bit slow (then again are ACC awards only based on ACC competition??) and had only just come on strong.

I have no doubt, though, that had he not gotten hurt, he'd be right up there for first team. I'm not sure he'd get much national consideration, unfortunately, since so much of that is numbers based....and his rebound numbers aren't so gaudy....he was, though (if i recall) the best defender in the league when he went down, and unfortunately defense gets somewhat of a lesser status since it isn't as easily quantifiable as "points" and "rebounds"

[JNort]

not at all....the 4-5 games before he got hurt....he was just incredible.....even if he hadn't gotten hurt, I think he'd be a long shot.....he started the season a bit slow (then again are ACC awards only based on ACC competition??) and had only just come on strong.

I have no doubt, though, that had he not gotten hurt, he'd be right up there for first team. I'm not sure he'd get much national consideration, unfortunately, since so much of that is numbers based....and his rebound numbers aren't so gaudy....he was, though (if i recall) the best defender in the league when he went down, and unfortunately defense gets somewhat of a lesser status since it isn't as easily quantifiable as "points" and "rebounds"

I firmly believe he would have gotten more votes than Kadji. JMM doesn't even belong on this list either...

[Newton_14]

I agree with JNort on this one regarding Brown. Missing 2.5 games in a 9 game half season should not eliminate him from consideration for the mid-year list. I think he belongs on the 3rd team at this point. Needs to get back soon though.

Ryan would definitely be in the mix for 1st or 2nd team had he not went down.

[vick]

But in Ryan's case he has missed more than 3 games and while he has been sorely sorely missed we did not go 0-3 without him. Not to mention quality big men are more numerous this year than top tier pg's. To me right now it is 1. Lorenzo.............................2. Larkin/Cook.............................................. ....................................4.

The drop from the best PG to Larkin and Cook and then the next tier is greater than it is at the forward slot.

See, here's the difference: I fundamentally disagree with your belief that Brown is way ahead of Larkin based solely on ACC play (or, quite frankly, that Cook has been Larkin's equal). I don't see it. Here are their stats for ACC games through yesterday (excluding the Virginia game for Brown):


MP PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV eFG
Larkin 35.9 11.9 5.0 4.7 2.3 0.3 1.8 0.565
Brown 37.1 14.7 5.1 8.7 1.6 1.0 3.7 0.457


Brown has four more assists per game, but also two more turnovers, so that's pretty much a wash in ball handling. The eFG difference, though, is absolutely enormous, and this might be where we differ, because I believe--and I believe the evidence demonstrates--that efficient shooting is the most important factor in winning basketball games, and a difference of 0.2 points per shot is a huge difference. Statsheet has Brown's offensive rating as 104.2 in conference, versus 118.9 for Larkin (granted this is after the game today, but one game won't change it that much). That's a difference in efficiency equivalent to the difference between the 7th best team and the the 106th best team in college basketball. Add in the fact that Miami's a significantly better team than NC State with or without Brown, and I think the argument tilts strongly in favor of Larkin.

Also, while NC State has lost, it's not as if the point guard play has really been the problem, except maybe the Virginia game--Opie can ball.

[JNort]

See, here's the difference: I fundamentally disagree with your belief that Brown is way ahead of Larkin based solely on ACC play (or, quite frankly, that Cook has been Larkin's equal). I don't see it. Here are their stats for ACC games through yesterday (excluding the Virginia game for Brown):


MP PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV eFG
Larkin 35.9 11.9 5.0 4.7 2.3 0.3 1.8 0.565
Brown 37.1 14.7 5.1 8.7 1.6 1.0 3.7 0.457


Brown has four more assists per game, but also two more turnovers, so that's pretty much a wash in ball handling. The eFG difference, though, is absolutely enormous, and this might be where we differ, because I believe--and I believe the evidence demonstrates--that efficient shooting is the most important factor in winning basketball games, and a difference of 0.2 points per shot is a huge difference. Statsheet has Brown's offensive rating as 104.2 in conference, versus 118.9 for Larkin (granted this is after the game today, but one game won't change it that much). That's a difference in efficiency equivalent to the difference between the 7th best team and the the 106th best team in college basketball. Add in the fact that Miami's a significantly better team than NC State with or without Brown, and I think the argument tilts strongly in favor of Larkin.

Also, while NC State has lost, it's not as if the point guard play has really been the problem, except maybe the Virginia game--Opie can ball.

Well I am not basing my opinion only on ACC play but the season as a whole. Yes "Opie" can ball however Browns size would have bothered Larkin more so than Lewis. Miami has more weapons on offense and Larkin has more teammates he can defer to and rely on than Brown does.

[cptnflash]

McAdoo's inclusion is just further evidence that the ACC media gives these honors primarily on count stats. If you only look at his major count stats (15.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg), McAdoo looks really productive. It is only when you look at efficiency (or actually watch him play) that you realize he stinks.

Same reason that Austin was all-ACC last year, despite being the 5th best player on his own team.

[JNort]

Same reason that Austin was all-ACC last year, despite being the 5th best player on his own team.

Well Austin was the only player on the team last year that could play a little defense and get his own shot and made the most memorable shot of the year. Not to mention he was a freshmen scoring 16ppg at Duke. Should he have made 1st team? Nah probably not but def 2nd or 3rd

[Greg_Newton]

Taking a look at how things are going a little over halfway through... (ACC only stats (http://statsheet.com/mcb/conferences/acc/player_stats?season=2012-2013&games=conf)):

My guesses:

First team locks:

Mason Plumlee (17.5 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 60% FG)
Erick Green (26.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.4 SPG)
Joe Harris (18.6 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.2 APG, 45% 3PT)
CJ Leslie (15.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG 55% FG)

For the last spot and the second team:

Reggie Bullock (14 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 54% 3PT)
Shane Larkin (13.4 PPG 4.3 APG, 4 RPG, 2.1 SPG)
Quinn Cook (12 PPG, 5.8 APG, 4 RPG, 1.7 SPG)
Richard Howell (13.5 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 57% FG)
Seth Curry (16.9 PPG, 46.5% 3PT)
PJ Hairston (13.5 PPG, 4 RPG, 53% 3PT, which I assume will improve)

Third team:

James McAdoo (14-15 PPG, 8-9 RPG)
Travis McKie (14-15 PPG and 7-8 RPG)
Kenny Kadji (13 PPG and 6-7 RPG)
CJ Harris (15-16 PPG)
Lorenzo Brown (12.8 PPG, 6.7 APG, 4.3, RPG, 2 SPG, missed a few games)

----------------------------------------

I'm not sure who the last first-teamer would be today - I'd guess Larkin gets the nod over Cook so Miami gets someone on. Curry is scoring really well, but has no other stats of note. Bullock is really solid all around.

I'll be curious where Hairston ends up, though. If he keeps up anything close to the tear he's on, he should be at least second team and may even push for the last first team spot

Thoughts?

[dukelifer]

Taking a look at how things are going a little over halfway through... (ACC only stats (http://statsheet.com/mcb/conferences/acc/player_stats?season=2012-2013&games=conf)):

My guesses:

First team locks:

Mason Plumlee (17.5 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 60% FG)
Erick Green (26.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.4 SPG)
Joe Harris (18.6 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.2 APG, 45% 3PT)
CJ Leslie (15.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG 55% FG)

For the last spot and the second team:

Reggie Bullock (14 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 54% 3PT)
Shane Larkin (13.4 PPG 4.3 APG, 4 RPG, 2.1 SPG)
Quinn Cook (12 PPG, 5.8 APG, 4 RPG, 1.7 SPG)
Richard Howell (13.5 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 57% FG)
Seth Curry (16.9 PPG, 46.5% 3PT)
PJ Hairston (13.5 PPG, 4 RPG, 53% 3PT, which I assume will improve)

Third team:

James McAdoo (14-15 PPG, 8-9 RPG)
Travis McKie (14-15 PPG and 7-8 RPG)
Kenny Kadji (13 PPG and 6-7 RPG)
CJ Harris (15-16 PPG)
Lorenzo Brown (12.8 PPG, 6.7 APG, 4.3, RPG, 2 SPG, missed a few games)

----------------------------------------

I'm not sure who the last first-teamer would be today - I'd guess Larkin gets the nod over Cook so Miami gets someone on. Curry is scoring really well, but has no other stats of note. Bullock is really solid all around.

I'll be curious where Hairston ends up, though. If he keeps up anything close to the tear he's on, he should be at least second team and may even push for the last first team spot

Thoughts?

Hard to see the number 1 team without one guy. Larkin makes most sense

[vick]

Are we talking about who will be on it or who should be on it? For who I think should be on it (order having no meaning):

First

Plumlee
Green
Harris
Larkin
Bullock

Second

Kadji
Howell
Curry
Booker
Mitchell

Third

Scott
McKie
Brown
Cook
Len

I would not in good conscience vote Leslie first team. He has fairly gaudy raw scoring stats, but is a really inefficient scorer--your link has an offensive rating of 93.7, which is frankly bad. This is if you are just looking at ACC play, which is how I think they should decide these things. The problem is his shooting percentage (50.4%) doesn't overcome that he isn't much of a free throw shooter and turns the ball over a fair bit (3.4 per game). Also, just qualitatively, he seems to make a lot of real mental mistakes--like today where he picked up a technical late in the second half of a close game, and committed one of the more comical goaltending violations I've seen this season.

Now, that said, I admit that I'm far more of a zealot about scoring efficiency than I believe the voters are.

Hairston is an interesting case as I would have him just outside the top 15 now, but I think now that Roy's decided to let him loose, he'll wind up where you have him. I hate to ding a guy because his coach is stubborn, on the other hand, I think you can only really fairly vote for someone based on what they actually do and not what they hypothetically could have done, and his production isn't as high as the others, I think.

[Greg_Newton]

Doh, I did a fair amount of searching, but missed this whole discussion. Sorry for the double post.

Hard to believe anyone could put Joe Harris on the third team. He should be right up there with Plumlee for POY, IMO.

Good points about Leslie. Hadn't realized he was quite so inefficient.

I don't really get the love for Kadji, though, especially on first team. I'd definitely take Plum, Harris, Green, Larkin, Curry, Bullock, Howell and Cook over him right now... I guess you could make a case for him after that based on his team's success, but both of Wake's players are putting up better numbers more efficiently, for example.

Agreed that Hairston is the biggest wild card here. I could even see him slipping onto the first team if he continues to put up huge numbers as the focal point of their offense.