Top Grossing Movies of Summer 2013

[Udaman]

OK, I know this is early. Way early. I'm not even putting up the poll yet.

But given that the Holiday contest is over, I'm feeling nostalgic, and wanted to start a discussion.

I think, when all is said and done, this will be the highest grossing summer for movies ever....and it won't be close. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that it will be virtually impossible for anyone to correctly get all 5 of the top grossing films this summer. If they do, it will be pure luck, and no skill. Don't believe me? Here are the main contenders:

Iron Man 3. First one made $318M. Second one made $312M. It's a lock right? Right?

Star Trek 2. First one made $258M. Lock, right?

The Hangover 3. Second one made $254M. First one made $277M. Lock, right?

Fast and Furious 6. Loved by males. Last one made $210M. The buzz on this one is huge. Lock?

Man of Steel. Even the crummy Man of Steel made $200M. People love Superman. The early buzz on this is that it finally gets it right. So a lock, right?

OK...that's 5. Call it a wrap. Oh wait, I'm just going in chronological order. You mean there's more? Oh yeah. How about:

Monster's University. It's Pixar. Hugely popular. The firs one made $255M, and that was 12 years ago. Lock, right? Well, OK, guess I'll move out Man of Steel.

Despicable Me 2. Another kids movie. The first one did $251M. My kids all loved it. They already can't wait to see the sequel. Lock? Maybe I'll move out Fast and Furious 6.

Wolverine. OK, the terrible first one only made $180M. But the X-Men reboot did well, and if this one is better (and how can it not be), then it should make $200M, right? That's a lock, right?

So that's 8....and I'm not including World War Z. Brad Pitt is money gold! Or After Earth. Will Smith is money gold! Or sleepers like White House Down, Kick [Butt] 2, The Internship (with Owen Wilson and Vince Vaugn reuniting for their first film since The Wedding Crashers), This is the End, RIPD (another zombie flick) or Turbo (Dreamworks annimation).

I mean it's going to be splitting hairs this year to say the least. I think people will be lucky to get 3 right. Maybe lucky to only get 2. A top 5 just isn't fair this time. Maybe we should do top 7...or top 10.

By the way, I'm really looking forward to most of these movies.

[JasonEvans]

You forgot The Great Gatsby (amazing visual style and Leo sells tickets), The Lone Ranger (Pirates of the Carib on horseback), and Pacific Rim (giant robots vs. giant monsters!!). You also forgot Elysium, with Jodie Foster and Matt Damon from the guy who wrote/directed District 9. HUGE buzz on that film! There's also a sequel to 300 coming in August.

It is going to be a huge, huge, huge summer, no question about it. But, our contest shall always be to pick the top 5. If it is harder this year than in past years, that is just tough! Usually, 3 of the top 5 are automatic. I like it that this summer feels a lot tougher (though I still think there are at least 2 or 3 mortal locks).

-Jason "by the way, you mentioned Kick A** 2 -- but I doubt it even makes $100 mil" Evans

[Udaman]

If Great Gatsby makes the top 5, I'll buy you dinner anywhere in Boston. (I'm tempted to make that bet for the Top 10).

You are probably right about Kick [Butt] 2. Probably won't break $100M.

[BD80]

... There's also a sequel to 300 coming in August. ...

ummmm. the same 300 slaughtered by the Persians after holding the pass long enough to allow the Greeks to prepare a defense?

is it a zombie flick?

[davekay1971]

ummmm. the same 300 slaughtered by the Persians after holding the pass long enough to allow the Greeks to prepare a defense?

is it a zombie flick?

Don't let history interfere with a Hollywood money grab! This one is going to be titled "301" and feature Leonidas' young son, who was seen in "300" all grown on with spray-painted abs leading his 299 followers and his father (who was resurrected by Hades) to fight an even larger army led by Xerxes.

Sadly, if this were actually the plot of the movie, most high school kids in this country would still think it was pretty much like history.

It does look like a good list. Of the ones mentioned, I think Iron Man 3, Star Trek 2, Despicable Me 2, and Monsters University look like the most lock-ish locks. While Wolverine is mining the amazing Frank Miller mini-series for its source material, the last time Marvel mined a phenomenal Frank Miller story-line, we got Daredevil. And I'm thinking some of the bloom is off the Hugh Jackman Wolverine rose. As for After Earth, it looks really cool, and it could be huge, but Will Smith hasn't been box office gold in awhile. Brad Pitt has never really been a box office sensation, although, again, World War Z looks pretty cool, and it could be huge. Is there still a big audience for another Hangover run? If they recapture some of the originality and unpredictability of the original, yes. If it's another by-the-numbers redo like Hangover 2, no. Superman...maybe. It's a huge title, huge property, and the if the buzz really is good, it'll perform...but again, it's a title that's less hot now than it was before the last Superman movie.

It is going to be an interesting summer, and there are definitely about 8 movies which seem like they have a strong chance to make the top 5. And then there will be the sleeper.

[JasonEvans]

And then there will be the sleeper.

It is likely, but lets look and see how often it happens. Movies that came out of nowhere to make over $160 mil in the summer.

2012 - Ted: $218 mil
2011 - Rise of Apes: $176 mil, The Help: $169 mil, Bridesmaids: $169 mil
2010 - no surprise summer hits
2009 - Hangover: $277 mil
2008 - no surprise summer hits
2007 - no surprise summer hits
2006 - no surprise summer hits
2005 - Wedding Crashers: $209 mil

Only Ted, Hangover, and Crashers cracked the Top 5 movies of summer. With so many huge, huge titles out there this summer, I sorta doubt an unknown can make the $225-$250 mil it may take to make the Top 5. If I had to bet on one, it would probably be This Is The End. After it opens in mid-June, there are almost no comedies coming out for months.

-Jason "the 300 sequel is more a prequel and, while it will feature Xerxes again, you won't see Gerard Butler as King Leonidas in this flick" Evans

[Udaman]

This reminds me....wasn't there a lot of talk about doing an Escape From New York remake? With Butler playing Snake? That's a movie that would be great to redo.

[bedeviled]

<sigh> Over 20 movies listed, the vast majority of which I care nothing about. The movie I'm looking forward to is Before Midnight (3rd in a Trilogy, each filmed 9 years apart!). Alas, it has virtually zero chance in this game...maybe if it were net instead of gross...nah, neither action nor comedy, it's a romantic drama that is mostly just erudite dialogue...not a gross blockbuster, and I know it sounds dreadfully awful, but I love these movies so had to plug it once as a potentially very good movie coming out this summer. Thanks for listening.

[ncexnyc]

I've already gone on record with my call for "Mortal Instruments: City of Bones." I might as well put my foot in my mouth now and say it again.

The Twilight groupies need another group of heartthrobs to make their day and the cast for this flick will fill the bill.

[BD80]

I've already gone on record with my call for "Mortal Instruments: City of Bones." I might as well put my foot in my mouth now and say it again.

The Twilight groupies need another group of heartthrobs to make their day and the cast for this flick will fill the bill.

Wait, this is King Arthur v King Henry VIII v Queen Mother Cersei/Queen Gorgo v Snow White ?

[A-Tex Devil]

I'm curious about World War Z. The book was relatively high concept (for the genre), but the trailer for the movie makes it look no different than say your standard military against aliens, war of the worlds, type movie... except of course with zombies. It's a tough book to adapt for sure, but I hope they can pull some of the retrospective feel of the book in the movie.

[JNort]

OK, I know this is early. Way early. I'm not even putting up the poll yet.

But given that the Holiday contest is over, I'm feeling nostalgic, and wanted to start a discussion.

I think, when all is said and done, this will be the highest grossing summer for movies ever....and it won't be close. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that it will be virtually impossible for anyone to correctly get all 5 of the top grossing films this summer. If they do, it will be pure luck, and no skill. Don't believe me? Here are the main contenders:

Iron Man 3. First one made $318M. Second one made $312M. It's a lock right? Right? Yup you are correct

Star Trek 2. First one made $258M. Lock, right? Eh idk I would put it in yeah

The Hangover 3. Second one made $254M. First one made $277M. Lock, right? Def not right

Fast and Furious 6. Loved by males. Last one made $210M. The buzz on this one is huge. Lock? Not a lock no

Man of Steel. Even the crummy Man of Steel made $200M. People love Superman. The early buzz on this is that it finally gets it right. So a lock, right? Again it to will flounder

OK...that's 5. Call it a wrap. Oh wait, I'm just going in chronological order. You mean there's more? Oh yeah. How about:

Monster's University. It's Pixar. Hugely popular. The firs one made $255M, and that was 12 years ago. Lock, right? Well, OK, guess I'll move out Man of Steel. Prob the biggest kids movie of the summer so yeah maybe a lock

Despicable Me 2. Another kids movie. The first one did $251M. My kids all loved it. They already can't wait to see the sequel. Lock? Maybe I'll move out Fast and Furious 6. Has a decent chance at top 5 yeah

Wolverine. OK, the terrible first one only made $180M. But the X-Men reboot did well, and if this one is better (and how can it not be), then it should make $200M, right? That's a lock, right? No no no this will most likely be a big dissapointment

So that's 8....and I'm not including World War Z. Brad Pitt is money gold! Or After Earth. Will Smith is money gold! Or sleepers like White House Down, Kick I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. 2, The Internship (with Owen Wilson and Vince Vaugn reuniting for their first film since The Wedding Crashers), This is the End, RIPD (another zombie flick) or Turbo (Dreamworks annimation).

I mean it's going to be splitting hairs this year to say the least. I think people will be lucky to get 3 right. Maybe lucky to only get 2. A top 5 just isn't fair this time. Maybe we should do top 7...or top 10.

By the way, I'm really looking forward to most of these movies.

My .02

[JNort]

So I only see 4 locks out of what you listed (Iron Man, Star Trek, Dispicable Me, Monsters University). Leaves room for one of the following: Hangover or some unknown movie with good marketing. I love the F&F series but at 6 its getting kinda far and is losing some luster although we do get to see Letty back...

[NashvilleDevil]

I remember in 2008 when many thought the Dark Knight would not make the top 5 (Jason is still kicking himself). It's feeling like many are doing that with The Man of Steel. People have been waiting for a great Superman movie since Superman II. This will be huge and I think it is the highest grossing this summer.

[JNort]

I remember in 2008 when many thought the Dark Knight would not make the top 5 (Jason is still kicking himself). It's feeling like many are doing that with The Man of Steel. People have been waiting for a great Superman movie since Superman II. This will be huge and I think it is the highest grossing this summer.

But the thing is the Super Man movies are usually much more dull than other super hero movies.

[NashvilleDevil]

But the thing is the Super Man movies are usually much more dull than other super hero movies.

First two Superman movies were good. Still rewatchable today. I'm going to pretend that Supermans III and IV never happened. That leaves Superman Returns as the dull one of the group.

I guess the key to Man of Steel is how long do they spend with the origin story. If it's the entire movie than it probably underperforms. I think since Nolan is attached to this it will be done correctly and will be the biggest movie of the summer.

[JasonEvans]

As I mentioned in the World War Z thread, we are just a few weeks away from opening up the Top 5 of Summer poll. As this thread indicates, there are a lot of choices. I want to throw out some names just to see if anyone feels I have left any films out.

In order of release date...

Iron Man 3
Great Gatsby
Star Trek: Into Darkness
Fast & Furious 6
Hangover III
Epic
After Earth
The Internship
Man of Steel
This is the End
Monsters University
World War Z
White House Down
The Heat
Despicable Me 2
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Rim
Grown Ups 2
Red 2
The Wolverine
The Smurfs 2
300: Rise of an Empire
Planes
Elysium
Kick A** 2
Percy Jackson 2

That's 26 films, every one of which has at least a decent chance to make over $100 million, in my opinion. Obviously, we need to narrow it down. So, I am going to knock a few off. We need to get down to 14 choices (plus a spot in our poll for "Other"). Tell me if you agree with these exclusions:

Epic - not Pixar, not an animated sequel
This is the End - quirky comedy... I dunno. Plus, it comes less than a month after the somewhat similar raunchy comedy Hangover III
White House Down - Wait, didn't they just release this as Olympus Has Fallen?
The Heat - Female comedy = no chance. Even Bridesmaids could not crack the top 5.
Grown Ups 2 - Adam Sandler's track record is getting to be really bad
Red 2 - The original only made $90 mil. Hard to see this one making $200+ mil
300: Rise of an Empire - It is about Persians, not Spartans. No chance, I think.
Planes - Originally planned as direct-to-DVD. Wants to be a Cars spinoff, but no one is buying that with no Pixar association.
Kick A** 2 - The original only made $48 mil
Percy Jackson 2 - Late August release and the first one was a disappointment, making just $88 mil.

That is 10 cut out. So I still need to drop 2 more. Any suggestions?

Iron Man 3
Great Gatsby
Star Trek: Into Darkness
Fast & Furious 6
Hangover III
After Earth
The Internship
Man of Steel
Monsters University
World War Z
Despicable Me 2
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Rim
The Wolverine
The Smurfs 2
Elysium

I suppose I could just lop off Smurfs 2 and Elysium and that would be fine. They are both late summer releases and that is typically a tough time of year to get the kind of long boxoffice run that you need to get to $200+ million. But I can make a decent case for either of them being a contender. District 9 made $115 mil when it was released 4 years ago and Elysium, from the same director, has a much biggest cast and budget. Smurfs made $142 million when it came out and really over-performed expectations. It is not impossible that audiences will be somewhat starved for a family film.

Help me out here, people. Should we go with 15 and not have an "Other" category (folks could still post an "other" pick in the thread and it would count)?

-Jason "can a comedy like The Internship make it to the Top 5? Wedding Crashers and The Hangover sure did!" Evans

[BD80]

... "can a comedy like The Internship make it to the Top 5? Wedding Crashers and The Hangover sure did!" Evans

If the trailers reflect the movie ... please no!

[brevity]

Help me out here, people. Should we go with 15 and not have an "Other" category (folks could still post an "other" pick in the thread and it would count)?

Nope. 14 films and an option for "Other -- please name your write-in film in your comment". If only to minimize the chance that someone self-disqualifies. Any of The Internship, The Smurfs 2, or Elysium can be removed; all look better as an Other anyway. I say this every time, but make sure to include release dates for each option in the poll itself.

Now, if you want to try something really perverse, but more competitive, change the contest entirely to have people name the top 5 non-sequels in the summer box office bonanza. The problem I have with these summer contests is that I have to shut down my instincts to pick a sleeper in order to include the 3-4 films that are givens and the 1-2 films that are probables. So get rid of every film with a number in the title and returning cast members. Then you can get creative with your 14 options, such as:

The Great Gatsby (May 10)
Epic (May 24)
Now You See Me (May 31)
After Earth (June 7)
The Internship (June 7)
Man of Steel (June 14)
This is the End (June 14)
World War Z (June 21)
White House Down (June 28)
The Heat (June 28)
The Lone Ranger (July 5)
Pacific Rim (July 12)
Planes (August 9)
Elysium (August 9)

And you still could have write-ins for films like Much Ado About Nothing, Byzantium, The Bling Ring, Turbo, Blue Jasmine, etc. They'd have no chance against the blockbuster sequels, but are slightly more tempting in this context.

[bjornolf]

I've already gone on record with my call for "Mortal Instruments: City of Bones." I might as well put my foot in my mouth now and say it again.

The Twilight groupies need another group of heartthrobs to make their day and the cast for this flick will fill the bill.

They have The Host from Meyer coming out soon.

[bjornolf]

It is likely, but lets look and see how often it happens. Movies that came out of nowhere to make over $160 mil in the summer.

2012 - Ted: $218 mil
2011 - Rise of Apes: $176 mil, The Help: $169 mil, Bridesmaids: $169 mil
2010 - no surprise summer hits
2009 - Hangover: $277 mil
2008 - no surprise summer hits
2007 - no surprise summer hits
2006 - no surprise summer hits
2005 - Wedding Crashers: $209 mil

Only Ted, Hangover, and Crashers cracked the Top 5 movies of summer. With so many huge, huge titles out there this summer, I sorta doubt an unknown can make the $225-$250 mil it may take to make the Top 5. If I had to bet on one, it would probably be This Is The End. After it opens in mid-June, there are almost no comedies coming out for months.

-Jason "the 300 sequel is more a prequel and, while it will feature Xerxes again, you won't see Gerard Butler as King Leonidas in this flick" Evans

Could this be the year you need $300M to crack it, or will the vast number of movies mean the same dollars spread further and $175M will do it?

[bjornolf]

Could this be the year the kid films dominate? Will all the big summer movies split the pot while there are about the same number of kid flicks as usual?

[throatybeard]

Some year, I wish this thread would be about whether any of these films have any artistic merit, instead of the trivial concern of how much they will gross.

[JasonEvans]

Some year, I wish this thread would be about whether any of these films have any artistic merit, instead of the trivial concern of how much they will gross.

We could have a contest for the top 5 Rotten Tomato scores of summer if you want. Limit it to films in wide release (2000+ theaters at some point) or films that make at least $10 million in boxoffice if you want. That could be a fun contest, though a bit harder to track.

But, the contest that we traditionally run is for the top 5 boxoffice hits of summer. That is what we do.

-Jason "the notion of a non-sequel contest doesn't work for me... some sequels that seem like locks suck... MIB III anyone?" Evans

[Udaman]

Love the idea of a Bottom 5 Rotten Tomatoes poll....it's not nearly the same as getting the top 5 grossing movies right, but still fun.

As I said before, I think this summer it will be nearly impossible to get all the top 5 movies correct. There's just no way.

As for the top 14 to list (and yes, Other simply must be an option). 12 of them are locks:

Iron Man 3
Star Trek
The Great Gatsby
Fast and Furious
Hangover 3
Man of Steel
Monsters U
World War Z
Dispicable Me 2
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Rim
Wolverine

So that leaves 2 more from the list. I guess I would put After Earth in there. Then one more. I would not put The Internship in there. Have you seen the previews? It looks (and I'm saying this nicely) AWFUL. I didn't laugh one time, and I cringed several times. This movie is going to bomb. Calling it right now.

Finally, I like the idea of one more poll. You could have people rank the top 3 grossing movies from the "Discard Pile" and in that you could put the movies you don't list above. It would be Kick-Ass2, The Heat, RIPD (major sleeper), Grown Ups 2, 300, etc.

This summer is going to (literally) blow the box office records out of the park, and it's not going to be close.

[JasonEvans]

As for the top 14 to list (and yes, Other simply must be an option). 12 of them are locks:

Iron Man 3
Star Trek
The Great Gatsby
Fast and Furious
Hangover 3
Man of Steel
Monsters U
World War Z
Despicable Me 2
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Rim
Wolverine

So that leaves 2 more from the list. I guess I would put After Earth in there. Then one more.

So, 2 of -- The Smurfs 2, Elysium, After Earth, and The Internship.

I agree that After Earth is a must. It has the look of a blockbuster and comes with a big name cast + big name director. 5 years ago Will Smith + M Night would be a lock to be in the Top 5. Maybe they can re-capture the magic.

I am fine with dropping Smurfs 2. The original sucked. I am tempted to advocate for Elysium over The Internship on the basis of star power (Matt Damon and Jodie Foster) combined with a quality director/screenwriter (Neil Blomkamp), but I think we should put The Internship in because we need another comedy choice. Thus far, we are all about the sci-fi, with a little adventure/animation thrown in on the side. Another comedy makes sense (though, perhaps, we should re-consider This Is The End if that is the case).

-Jason "this may be a silly argument, I suspect no one is going to vote for any of these films we are currently talking about" Evans

[JasonEvans]

What do we think of 2 Guns? Trailer came out today (http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/universal/2guns/) and it looks fairly solid. A buddy/action/comedy (little bit of comedy, I suspect) movie. It has an Aug 2 release date so it is a summer film. Ordinarily I might not consider it, but this film has a huge cast headlined by Denzel Washington, Mark Wahlberg, Bill Paxton, James Marsden, and Edward James Olmos. Impressive. Wahlberg and Washington have a lot of boxoffice clout at this point.

I bet it is a $100+ mill flick, but I don't think anyone would expect it to reach the $200+ mil it will take to get into our Top 5. So, umm, ignore this post ;)

-Jason "Elysium vs Internship... I think Elysium. Heck, I don't think Internship is going to out-gross White House Down" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Does it impact anybody's opinion that Hangover 3 and Fast and Furious 6 will open the same weekend (May 24)?

[JasonEvans]

Does it impact anybody's opinion that Hangover 3 and Fast and Furious 6 will open the same weekend (May 24)?

At first blush, one might think that they are such different films (raunchy comedy vs. action), but they do draw from similar young adult male crowds so that it could make that weekend particularly tough for either film to break out.

These are the questions we must resolve satisfactorily to get 5-out-of-5.

-Jason "I will open the poll in a week" Evans

[brevity]

Does it impact anybody's opinion that Hangover 3 and Fast and Furious 6 will open the same weekend (May 24)?

There are usually two major releases set for Memorial Day weekend. Sometimes they both succeed; sometimes they cancel each other out. Personally, I see this as the latter. Then again, I have underestimated both franchises, more than once.

[TruBlu]

Some year, I wish this thread would be about whether any of these films have any artistic merit, instead of the trivial concern of how much they will gross.

Yep, a few of the top money making films really grossed me out.

[JasonEvans]

Then again, I have underestimated both franchises, more than once.

When you consider that the most recent edition of Fast & Furious did $209 million and Hangover did $254 million, to discount these two would be extremely foolish. They are each a mortal lock to do $150 mil+ in my opinion and are legit contenders to be the #4 and #5 films in the contest (I think there are 3 locks and picking the final two is the real challenge this season).

-Jason "of course, my three locks and your three locks may be different!" Evans

[cato]

When you consider that the most recent edition of Fast & Furious did $209 million and Hangover did $254 million, to discount these two would be extremely foolish. They are each a mortal lock to do $150 mil+ in my opinion and are legit contenders to be the #4 and #5 films in the contest (I think there are 3 locks and picking the final two is the real challenge this season).

-Jason "of course, my three locks and your three locks may be different!" Evans

This isn't really relevant for our contest, but is there any early word on Oblivion? The trailer looks interesting, although I'm not sure about the change in release date.

[JasonEvans]

Is there any early word on Oblivion? The trailer looks interesting, although I'm not sure about the change in release date.

I think they pulled it out of summer because the summer is incredibly crowded with sci-fi/action type films. It might have been hard to get any breathing room during their original July release date. I also think this may be timed to get a jump on After Earth, which is a somewhat similarly themed film (at least in the marketing) of a human going back to Earth after the planet has been abandoned and, at least seemingly, being alone on the planet. After Earth comes out in early June and an early July release for Oblivion might have been difficult from a marketing standpoint.

-Jason "they have not started screening it for critics yet... once they do I'll let you know how it is" Evans

[davekay1971]

This isn't really relevant for our contest, but is there any early word on Oblivion? The trailer looks interesting, although I'm not sure about the change in release date.

Oblivion was a great video game and definitely has the material for a fantastic movie. I'm just not sure I buy Tom Cruise as a Nord warrior taking on the Daedra to save the world.

Oh, wait, this is sci fi movie? Bummer...the video game adaptation would have been much cooler...