This Week in the ACC - 2/4-2/10

[pfrduke]

We've hit February and already, barring an extraordinarily hot finish or an unlikely ACCT run, half the league is already essentially out of contention for a tournament bid. BC, Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest are playing for an NIT, at best (if there's any of these team that could possibly make a little run, it's the Jackets, surprisingly enough. They have the fewest losses (8) and have only 2 tough road games left, at Virginia and Miami. If they could go 8-2 down the stretch, they'd be at 20-10 going into the ACCT, 10-8 in conference, with a nice OOC win against St. Mary's, and would probably have to be in the bubble conversation. But I digress). Most of top 6 squads still have their work cut out for them - Maryland and Virginia are far from secure, ditto North Carolina and even NC State, if they continue the home/road Jekyll & Hyde act. What that means is that it's vitally important for the top 6 to win their games against the bottom 6. And there are a lot of those games this week.

Monday was dark

Tuesday has what should be two relative cake walks for top 6 home teams. Miami hosts Boston College, which has had a relatively impressive offense in conference play but can't stop anyone - look for the Canes to put up high numbers. UNC hosts Wake, which is just bad on both sides of the ball. This is the last easy game for a while for UNC, which is about to do back-to-back road games against the ACC's top 2 teams, then host Virginia, then travel to Georgia Tech. Finally, if Georgia Tech has any hope of making the unlikely scenario described above a reality, they have to hold serve at home against their fellow bottom feeders. FSU has fallen off a cliff this season, sitting at 10th in both offense and defense in conference play.

[13]Miami hosts [122]Boston College
[46]North Carolina hosts [149]Wake Forest
[74]Georgia Tech hosts [98]Florida State

Wednesday is dark. I can't remember the last time a Wednesday during conference play had no games. Something about this makes me sad.

Thursday features one of the week's three top-6 matchups with NC State traveling to Durham for the rematch against the Devils. NC State took a shove to the back of their championship aspirations when Reggie Johnson tipped in a buzzer beater to steal one in Raleigh, and now a team that is 0-for-the-road this season travels to the conference's toughest venue in desperate need of a big win. They've played Duke tough in Cameron in recent years, including last season's spectacular meltdown - yes, they blew the 20 point lead, but they were up 20 in Cameron, which not many teams do. Virginia looks to get right at home with a game against Clemson (although these very same Tigers held UVA to a season-low 44 points when they met in South Carolina earlier this season). Finally, Maryland hits the road to take on the Hokies. This is a must-win game for the Terps - Virginia Tech is awful, particularly at home (two double-digit home losses, including one to Boston College) and the Terps can't afford to give up games against the bottom of the conference if they hope to make the tourney.

[38]Virginia hosts [82]Clemson
[5]Duke hosts [33]NC State
[156]Virginia Tech hosts [54]Maryland

Saturday has the week's second top 6 matchup - the start of Carolina's gauntlet with a trip to Coral Gables. Miami almost certainly will be playing for 10-0, assuming they don't get so hyped up for this game that they look past BC. Earlier action includes contests among the ACC's less impressive teams - FSU travels to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech travels to Blacksburg.

[149]Wake Forest hosts [98]Florida State
[156]Virginia Tech hosts [74]Georgia Tech
[13]Miami hosts [46]North Carolina

Sunday has another triple-header, including the final top 6 matchup of the week with Virginia traveling to Maryland. The Cavaliers have won their last two games at the Comcast Center and will look to make it three in a row. Duke hits the road to play Boston College - both team are much better on offense than they are on defense, so look for a high scoring affair. Starting the day off is NC State at Clemson - a week on the road is not necessarily what the doctor ordered for the Wolfpack.

[82]Clemson hosts [33]NC State
[54]Maryland hosts [38]Virginia
[122]Boston College hosts [5]Duke

ACC Non-Conference Record: 115-37
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 19-18
(note - now that non-conference play is done the detailed record by conference won't be re-posted until we hit tournament play).

[El_Diablo]

On paper, it looks like it shouldn't be all that close, but UNC might be vulnerable to Wake tonight. It looks like PJ Hairston will be out (concussion and flu), while McAdoo (back) and Hubert (flu) are expected to play but will not be at full strength (both supposedly only made it through about half of practice yesterday). Another undisclosed player "was going to the bathroom . . . about every 10 minutes" according to Roy Williams. :eek: Of course, it's not entirely unheard of for a Tar Heel to exaggerate a flu, so maybe it's not really going to be a factor. But UNC cannot really afford to drop one at home to Wake, given their precarious bubble position and their remaining schedule (which includes games @Miami, @Duke, @Maryland, and home games against UVA, NC State, and Duke).

[Olympic Fan]

There is a reason there are no ACC games Wednesday night -- it was a deliberate decision by the ACC to avoid the national signing day for football.

Schools and media have been complaining for years about the problems caused by spending all day on the football signing hoopla and then having a big basketball game that night. The football people have gelt that it detracts from the attention their big day gets in the media.

I know that in several instances over the last decade, we've had the Duke-Carolina game on the same night as signing day. That meakes for an incredibly long day.

[Duvall]

On paper, it looks like it shouldn't be all that close, but UNC might be vulnerable to Wake tonight. It looks like PJ Hairston will be out (concussion and flu), while McAdoo (back) and Hubert (flu) are expected to play but will not be at full strength (both supposedly only made it through about half of practice yesterday).

Yeah, about that - McAdoo, Hubert and Hairston have already appeared in the first half tonight.

Exaggerated injuries? Heels gonna heel.

[dukelifer]

Yeah, about that - McAdoo, Hubert and Hairston have already appeared in the first half tonight.

Exaggerated injuries? Heels gonna heel.

Crushing Wake at the half. Looks like UNC has made some adjustments and are playing better.

[Duvall]

Crushing Wake at the half. Looks like UNC has made some adjustments and are playing better.

You don't actually have to be good to crush Wake Forest outside of Winston-Salem. Ask Georgia Tech.

[El_Diablo]

Roy: "I really don’t see how P.J. can play."

Ha...okay. And he's still in the game with under 4 minutes left, up by 30.

[pfrduke]

Michael Snaer hits another game winner at the buzzer. Unbelievable. FSU has 5 conference wins; Snaer has hit a last second shot to win 3 of them.

[FerryFor50]

I'm torn - do I want Miami to crush UNC? Or do I want UNC to pull one out to help give Duke a shot at the regular season title...

Could be worse, I suppose.

[wallyman]

I'm torn - do I want Miami to crush UNC? Or do I want UNC to pull one out to help give Duke a shot at the regular season title...

Could be worse, I suppose.

Nothing to be torn about. Anytime North Carolina is playing, you want the other team to win (unless it's Kentucky in which case you're allowed to be momentarily torn and then go back to rooting against the Heels).

[vick]

Virginia absolutely smashing Clemson 38-10 at the half. They're a really solid team this year, especially at home. I think they have an outside chance of finishing third in the conference.

[CDu]

Virginia absolutely smashing Clemson 38-10 at the half. They're a really solid team this year, especially at home. I think they have an outside chance of finishing third in the conference.

I would even say it's not an outside chance. They've already beaten State and UNC. They could very conceivably end up 12-6 in conference. By comparison, UNC (same number of losses right now) has 4 likely losses left not including the rematch against UVa.

It could come down to UVa @ UNC and how well State plays on the road the rest of the way. But I'd put just about even odds on UVa and State for the #3 spot.

[vick]

I would even say it's not an outside chance. They've already beaten State and UNC. They could very conceivably end up 12-6 in conference. By comparison, UNC (same number of losses right now) has 4 likely losses left not including the rematch against UVa.

It could come down to UVa @ UNC and how well State plays on the road the rest of the way. But I'd put just about even odds on UVa and State for the #3 spot.

That's fair. I think I'd still put "the field" as a slight favorite for third place over UVa, although if we win tonight, they're up two losses on State...you may be right. UNC's just hard for me to judge (how long can UNC keep playing Hairston 20 minutes or less a game?).

[CDu]

That's fair. I think I'd still put "the field" as a slight favorite for third place over UVa, although if we win tonight, they're up two losses on State...you may be right. UNC's just hard for me to judge (how long can UNC keep playing Hairston 20 minutes or less a game?).

Oh I would definitely take the field over UVa. I would even take UNC+State alone over UVa.

[Bob Green]

That's my prediction. :cool: Actually that's the score Vegas is expecting. Miami is currently a 7.5 points favorite with the over/under set at 137.5.

[cptnflash]

That's my prediction. :cool: Actually that's the score Vegas is expecting. Miami is currently a 7.5 points favorite with the over/under set at 137.5.

I'll be very disappointed if it's that close. Let's go Canes!!

[JasonEvans]

I'll be very disappointed if it's that close. Let's go Canes!!

This is a great game for a Duke fan. If Miami loses, it puts the ACC regular season crown back under our control. If Carolina loses... well, Carolina losing is always good. It will be a joy to watch.

-Jason

[Newton_14]

That's my prediction. :cool: Actually that's the score Vegas is expecting. Miami is currently a 7.5 points favorite with the over/under set at 137.5.

This is very surprising to me actually, as is two local Sports Radio guys here picking UNC to win straight up tomorrow. (Adam Gold and Chris Morris). I admit I have not seen UNC play a complete game since the NC State game, and they have played well since then, but the teams they have beaten recently are mostly bottom feeders of the ACC.

Given how well Miami is playing, and the game is in Miami, I don't understand all the optimism for UNC?

What am I missing here? I would have expected the line to be easily 10-12+, and expected UNC would have a hard time to just avoid being blown out of the gym.

I just don't see UNC being able to handle Miami's front line. They beat them in Chapel Hill without Johnson.

I don't see it, but I hate all things UNC and want them to get smoked, so help me see the light if I am way off base here...

[davekay1971]

This is very surprising to me actually, as is two local Sports Radio guys here picking UNC to win straight up tomorrow. (Adam Gold and Chris Morris). I admit I have not seen UNC play a complete game since the NC State game, and they have played well since then, but the teams they have beaten recently are mostly bottom feeders of the ACC.

Given how well Miami is playing, and the game is in Miami, I don't understand all the optimism for UNC?

What am I missing here? I would have expected the line to be easily 10-12+, and expected UNC would have a hard time to just avoid being blown out of the gym.

I just don't see UNC being able to handle Miami's front line. They beat them in Chapel Hill without Johnson.

I don't see it, but I hate all things UNC and want them to get smoked, so help me see the light if I am way off base here...

You're right and the Vegas line probably represents the name recognition of UNC and it's impact on uneducated bettors who see the records and UNC's win streak without recognizing that (1) Miami is really freaking good; and (2) UNC has feasted on cupcakes for the last 3 games. Miami should win this game, and I don't expect it to be within 7 points.

[Bob Green]

What am I missing here? I would have expected the line to be easily 10-12+, and expected UNC would have a hard time to just avoid being blown out of the gym.


I agree with you and would easily give up 7.5 points to any Carolina fan foolish enough to bet against Miami today. Lauren Brownlow, at The ACC Sports Journal, is predicting Miami 72, Carolina 63:

http://www.accsports.com/teams/miami/2013020814710/acc-weekend-preview-feb-8.php

She also picks Maryland 57, Virginia 53. I hope she goes 1-1 on these two games.

[Indoor66]

There is no bad outcome for this game.

[TruBlu]

I want Miami to implode and lose every conference game the rest of the year . . . beginning right after the UNC game.

I want UNC to lose every game the rest of the year, including their opening game in the NIT.

[matt1]

Tough question for Duke fans:

Do we root for Miami despite their being ahead of us in conference, or do we root for UNC despite hating them?

[devildeac]

I'm torn - do I want Miami to crush UNC? Or do I want UNC to pull one out to help give Duke a shot at the regular season title...

Could be worse, I suppose.

It's hurricane season. In February this year.

3168

[devildeac]

This is very surprising to me actually, as is two local Sports Radio guys here picking UNC to win straight up tomorrow. (Adam Gold and Chris Morris). I admit I have not seen UNC play a complete game since the NC State game, and they have played well since then, but the teams they have beaten recently are mostly bottom feeders of the ACC.

Given how well Miami is playing, and the game is in Miami, I don't understand all the optimism for UNC?

What am I missing here? I would have expected the line to be easily 10-12+, and expected UNC would have a hard time to just avoid being blown out of the gym.

I just don't see UNC being able to handle Miami's front line. They beat them in Chapel Hill without Johnson.

I don't see it, but I hate all things UNC and want them to get smoked, so help me see the light if I am way off base here...

I'd like to see ol roy ask Larranaga if he can take his players off the court with about 14 seconds to go on the game clock. Oh, wait a minute. The court won't be stormed:o.

[TruBlu]

UNC uniforms: Barf blue pajamas.

[davekay1971]

Tough question for Duke fans:

Do we root for Miami despite their being ahead of us in conference, or do we root for UNC despite hating them?

This is not a tough question. I always root against UNC. Always. Without exception.

Certainly having our odds of winning a meaningless unbalanced ACC regular season title diminished by a UNC loss would not, in any way, diminish my pleasure at UNC losing. Badly, I hope.

[Cameron]

With Lorenzo Brown back in the lineup, N.C. State trails by six at Clemson at the break. The Wolfpack are in danger of losing 6 of 8 games and dropping to 16-8 on the season. This is a Clemson team that is 12-10 and 4-6 in the ACC, and State trailed by double digits in the first half.

N.C. State may have a lot of talent at their disposal, but they are in very serious jeopardy of missing the tournament at this rate (if they lose today). This is not a very good team (at least right now). I stand firmly behind that.

[Bob Green]

N.C. State may have a lot of talent at their disposal, but they are in very serious jeopardy of missing the tournament at this rate (if they lose today).

It is five weeks until Selection Sunday, which is an eternity in college basketball, but I agree with you that a loss today will land State squarely on the bubble. I'm watching the State at Clemson game because Virginia at Maryland is blacked out on ESPN3 for me. The Cavaliers are up by six points at the half.

[cptnflash]

Clemson up 4 with about 6 minutes left. NC State's season is imploding before our eyes... on the verge of losing 6 of 8 since they beat us in Raleigh.

[jjasper0729]

Wood with a dagger and a guy running at him... wuffies likely to escape up 1 with 1 second to go

[cptnflash]

Wow, NC State with incredible execution on a re-screen to get Scott Wood a go ahead 3-pointer with 1 second left. They deserve this win.

[Wander]

Haha, how many times are we going to watch Clemson lose a game because of missed free throws?

[Bob Green]

Scott Wood saves State with a 3 pointer that cleared the net with 1 second left as the Woofies defeat the Tigers 58-57. State avoids joining Carolina on the bubble for the time being.

[Cameron]

Yep. As soon as Clemson missed the front end of the one-and-one, I knew Scott Wood would bail Mark Gottfried and State out of another terribly lackluster performance. That last play had Wayne Ellington written all over it.

States survives another day, and probably edged itself firmly back into the NCAAs with the win, but they are absolutely primed for an early round loss unless Gottfried figures this mess out.

I agree with others here wholeheartedly that State has a ton of talent and is capable of beating any of the top teams, but they rarely play to that capability. And that's the problem. This looks like a team that is content to coast. C.J. Leslie needs to start drinking cappuccino before games. He is one of the most docile players I have ever seen.

[Olympic Fan]

While State was dodging a season-destroying bullet in Littlejohn, Virginia was posting an impressive victory at Maryland.

The Cavs are now 7-3 in the ACC in third place ... and if we don't take care of business at BC, they'll be tied with us for second.

As of Satuday night, Lunardi had both Virginia and Maryland on his "Last Four out" ... Virginia has an odd resume ... a terrible non-conference SOS, a poor RPI and some terrible losses (to 3-20 ODU?). But they also have more top 50 wins than UNC has top 100 wins and have played well lately.

Also interesting -- in a season where the ACC home teams have been dominant, the road teams (NC State and Virginia) are 2-0 today ... hoping Duke can make it 3-0 for the road teams.

[davekay1971]

Virginia is improving, and I think that about sums them up. They're a better team now than they were in November and December, an it's not close.

State had a terrible first 15 minutes and looked to be on the way to another road stinker, putting them on the bubble and putting them in a bad position. Then they started playing pretty well, overcoming a 12 point deficit on the road. Clemson, as bad as they've been away from home, has been respectable at Littlejohn, beating UVa, Wake, VT, and GT in their last four home games. It's a game State should have won, but it's also one that "State being State" probably wouldn't have come back to win after being down big and playing so badly in the first half.

State now has 4 very winnable home games, and if they hold serve at the RBC, they'll finish at least 10-8 in the ACC and solidly in the field. Their remaining road games are at UNC, GT, and FSU. They could easily go 0-3 in those 3, being State, but they could also go 3-0. Which means NC State could go into postseason play solidly in the NCAAT but a disappointing 10-8 in the ACC and without much momentum. Or they could go into the ACCT 13-5 with an 8 game win streak as one of the hottest teams in the nation.

And doesn't that just sum up who the Wolfpack are?

[Olympic Fan]

While I also suggested that a loss at Clemson would be a season-destroying loss, I think we're making too much of the Pack's recent troubles.

They have an incredibly soft schedule remaining -- home games with VPI, FSU, Boston College and Wake Forest remaining. They do have a tough road game (for them anyway) at UNC, but also winnable road games at Georgia Tech and FSU.

They are 17-7 (6-5 ACC) but are almost sure to add four more home wins ..,. and probably one or two road wins down the stretch. That should get to them to at least 22 overall wins and 11 in the ACC going into the ACC Tournament. Unlike Maryland or Virginia, their RPI is very good (right at No. 20 last time I checked).

It would take a complete collapse to put them on the bubble -- even if they had lost to Clemson today. Yeah, that would have been four straight losses, but with a home game coming with VPI (and the rest of those softies ahead) they would have been in good shape to turm things around and mke it into the tourney make the tournament.