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mike88
01-31-2013, 11:05 AM
Is anyone (besides KenPom) routinely putting together game-by-game "four factors" analyses for Duke games this year?

vick
01-31-2013, 11:11 AM
Is anyone (besides KenPom) routinely putting together game-by-game "four factors" analyses for Duke games this year?

I think you can get the four factors from the box scores at sports-reference.com (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2013-schedule.html), just click on the date by each game. Is that what you're looking for?

airowe
01-31-2013, 11:46 AM
Here's the Duke-Wake Forest game: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2013/01/31/5-duke-75-wake-forest-70-four-factors/

Duke-Maryland is here: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2013/01/28/1-duke-84-maryland-64-four-factors/

I did some analysis earlier in the year, but time constraints caused me to stop. Here's a link to all those: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/?s=four+factors

Statsheet has handy graphs for each game in their advanced box scores. Here's a link to all the games: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/duke/game_stats Just click on the link for each game and you can see detail.

91_92_01_10_15
01-31-2013, 01:19 PM
Here's the Duke-Wake Forest game: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2013/01/31/5-duke-75-wake-forest-70-four-factors/

Duke-Maryland is here: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2013/01/28/1-duke-84-maryland-64-four-factors/

I did some analysis earlier in the year, but time constraints caused me to stop. Here's a link to all those: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/?s=four+factors

Statsheet has handy graphs for each game in their advanced box scores. Here's a link to all the games: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/duke/game_stats Just click on the link for each game and you can see detail.

Has anyone seen cumulative +/- or RR anywhere? I looked for it on StatSheet but failed to find it.

airowe
01-31-2013, 01:31 PM
Has anyone seen cumulative +/- or RR anywhere? I looked for it on StatSheet but failed to find it.

Jon Pence has +/- per Game and +/- per 40 over at scacchoops.com: http://www.scacchoops.com/TempoBasedStats.asp

You can multiply the per game out by the number of games to get totals.

Cumulative Roland Rating for College Basketball at Statsheet: http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/roland?season=2012-2013

Roland Rating and +/- are in each player's statsheet. Here's Mason's: http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/duke/mason-plumlee

mike88
01-31-2013, 03:43 PM
Here's the Duke-Wake Forest game: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2013/01/31/5-duke-75-wake-forest-70-four-factors/

Duke-Maryland is here: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2013/01/28/1-duke-84-maryland-64-four-factors/

I did some analysis earlier in the year, but time constraints caused me to stop. Here's a link to all those: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/?s=four+factors

Statsheet has handy graphs for each game in their advanced box scores. Here's a link to all the games: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/duke/game_stats Just click on the link for each game and you can see detail.

Thanks- these are great. The one other feature I like from some of the NBA sites I follow is whether each statistic for a given game is better or worse than the team's season average for that statistic. If I have some time, I will run the numbers for our averages (unless someone has already done so- there are so many stats sites now I can't keep up with them all)

airowe
02-01-2013, 10:32 AM
Thanks- these are great. The one other feature I like from some of the NBA sites I follow is whether each statistic for a given game is better or worse than the team's season average for that statistic. If I have some time, I will run the numbers for our averages (unless someone has already done so- there are so many stats sites now I can't keep up with them all)

Duke's stats here from Statsheet: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/duke/team_stats?type=all

From Kenpom: http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

From TeamRankings: http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/duke-blue-devils/stats

Sports Reference: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2013.html

Scacchoops.com: http://www.scacchoops.com/TempoBasedStats.asp?sTeam=DU

mike88
02-01-2013, 03:06 PM
These are Duke's numbers for the season:

effective FG % - 53.1% (30th) (Note that the only outlier was the Miami game, at 32.4%)
turnover % - 13.7% (8th)
FT % - 37.2% (131st)
Off rebound % - 28.7% (214th)

I will try to post the game by game stats next, but what I take away from these data is that, at least in terms of our offense, we are a good shooting team that does exceptionally well in not turning the ball over, but we are not very good at getting to the line (I hadn't appreciated this) or in getting to the offensive boards.

Ggallagher
02-02-2013, 08:43 AM
These are Duke's numbers for the season:

effective FG % - 53.1% (30th) (Note that the only outlier was the Miami game, at 32.4%)
turnover % - 13.7% (8th)
FT % - 37.2% (131st)
Off rebound % - 28.7% (214th)

I will try to post the game by game stats next, but what I take away from these data is that, at least in terms of our offense, we are a good shooting team that does exceptionally well in not turning the ball over, but we are not very good at getting to the line (I hadn't appreciated this) or in getting to the offensive boards.

While I'm not exactly sure what KenPom's numbers are worth - well, except I do send him money so I can read his stuff, so I guess I do know...

Anyhow, there's a nice - and favorable - mismatch in the numbers for the FSU game. While we don't rank well with respect to Offensive Rebounding (214th), Florida State is nearly at the bottom and ranked 320th for offensive rebounding AGAINST them.

So for whatever the numbers are worth, I'm going to be optimistic and expect that our not so great OR rating gets strongly offset by FSU's demonstrated inability to stop their opponents from offensive rebounding.

mike88
02-03-2013, 06:56 AM
Duke recorded its highest effective FG % of the season (71.6) vs FSU yesterday. Our turnover % (15.5) was about at our season average, was was our offensive rebound % of 31.6. We recorded one of our lowest FT rates (11.8%) but that may have been as much a function of our great shot selection (and FSU's poor defense) as anything else. We held FSU to an offensive rating of 98.4, which has been about the norm since Ryan went out, while recording a rating of 129 ourselves. We won't lose too many games when we play this well on offense.

Saratoga2
02-03-2013, 07:49 AM
Duke recorded its highest effective FG % of the season (71.6) vs FSU yesterday. Our turnover % (15.5) was about at our season average, was was our offensive rebound % of 31.6. We recorded one of our lowest FT rates (11.8%) but that may have been as much a function of our great shot selection (and FSU's poor defense) as anything else. We held FSU to an offensive rating of 98.4, which has been about the norm since Ryan went out, while recording a rating of 129 ourselves. We won't lose too many games when we play this well on offense.

In much of the game we were really trying many players and lineups so any figures have to be looked at from that point of view.

airowe
02-04-2013, 02:40 PM
Duke recorded its highest effective FG % of the season (71.6) vs FSU yesterday. Our turnover % (15.5) was about at our season average, was was our offensive rebound % of 31.6. We recorded one of our lowest FT rates (11.8%) but that may have been as much a function of our great shot selection (and FSU's poor defense) as anything else. We held FSU to an offensive rating of 98.4, which has been about the norm since Ryan went out, while recording a rating of 129 ourselves. We won't lose too many games when we play this well on offense.

Offensive efficiency ended up at 133, there's usually some adjusting of the final numbers: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2013/02/04/5-duke-79-florida-state-60-four-factors/

Thought it was interesting that this was our slowest-paced game of the year. Was this due to the extended minutes the bench players saw? Could it have been the strategy going in? I tend to think this game was more of an outlier, but it will be interesting to watch on Thursday.

mike88
02-08-2013, 04:05 PM
Despite cooling off considerably in the second half, Duke posted an outstanding 63.5% effective FG % vs State last night. Combined with a very low turnover rate of 9.1%, Duke tallied 1.34 points per possession. Unfortunately, State performed almost as well - their eFG was 56.1% and they only turned the ball over on 8.6% of possessions, and finished with 1.16 PPP. The difference maker ended up being Duke's extremely high (for this team) FT % - 61.5% last night compared with 16.7% for NC State. Offensive rebound % were near even: 25.0% for Duke vs 27.3% for NC State.