The ACC Truth? Road Wins and Home Losses

[sagegrouse]

Only 10 of the 40 ACC games to date have seen the road team with a victory. There is a saying in the NBA that a playoff series doesn't really start until the home team loses a game. How does the ACC stack up under this metric? Here are the standings (pre UNC-BC) where the wins are road wins and the losses are home losses. Note that Duke (and Wake) are 0-0.



Team Road Home
W L
MI 3 0
VA 1 0
NS 1 0
FS 2 1
NC 1 1
DU 0 0
WF 0 0
VT 1 2
BC 1 2
CL 0 1
MD 0 1
GT 0 2


Miami, impressively, has won three road games and lost none at home; FSU has won two (but lost to UNC at home). State has only one road win. Duke and Wake remain 0-0 if Wake wins tomorrow night. Hope not.

sagegrouse

[Blue KevIL]

I recall seeing something on the DBR board years ago about a Plus/Minus rating to apply to conference games.
Zero points for Home Win / Road Loss; Minus-1 for a Home Loss & Plus-1 for a Road Win.

Since then, I always liked to use that as gauge.

Not sure on fouls & FT discrepancies this year in the ACC & if that favors Home teams, but that always seems to be a factor in the B1G.
I laugh as I recall attending a game as Freshman at the University of Illinois in 1991-92.
The Illini had a 3-to-1 FTA advantage on Minnesota... The part that makes me laugh: the FTA was 51 (!) to 17.

[FerryFor50]

I recall seeing something on the DBR board years ago about a Plus/Minus rating to apply to conference games.
Zero points for Home Win / Road Loss; Minus-1 for a Home Loss & Plus-1 for a Road Win.

Since then, I always liked to use that as gauge.

Not sure on fouls & FT discrepancies this year in the ACC & if that favors Home teams, but that always seems to be a factor in the B1G.
I laugh as I recall attending a game as Freshman at the University of Illinois in 1991-92.
The Illini had a 3-to-1 FTA advantage on Minnesota... The part that makes me laugh: the FTA was 51 (!) to 17.

Same thing happened at Indiana against Michigan St this past weekend.

[FerryFor50]

Same thing happened at Indiana against Michigan St this past weekend.

And tonight, Wisconsin gets ZERO free throw attempts at OSU.

[sagegrouse]

I recall seeing something on the DBR board years ago about a Plus/Minus rating to apply to conference games.
Zero points for Home Win / Road Loss; Minus-1 for a Home Loss & Plus-1 for a Road Win.

Since then, I always liked to use that as gauge.



Good suggestion. Now implemented -- along with the UNC win at BC.



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 3 0 3
VA 1 0 1
NS 1 0 1
FS 2 1 1
NC 2 1 1
DU 0 0 0
WF 0 0 0
VT 1 2 -1
CL 0 1 -1
MD 0 1 -1
BC 1 3 -2
GT 0 2 -2
11 11 0


sagegrouse

[sagegrouse]

Two road wins and one road loss tonight. Duke is at least in positive territory. The "Index" is +1 for road wins and -1 for home losses.



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 4 0 4
VA 1 0 1
NS 1 0 1
FS 2 1 1
NC 2 1 1
DU 1 0 1
WF 0 1 -1
CL 0 1 -1
MD 0 1 -1
VT 1 3 -2
BC 1 3 -2
GT 0 2 -2
13 13 0

Now the road team has won 13 on the road out of 44 total ACC games. Miami's lead is impressive.

sagegrouse

[wk2109]

Two road wins and one road loss tonight. Duke is at least in positive territory. The "Index" is +1 for road wins and -1 for home losses.



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 4 0 4
VA 1 0 1
NS 1 0 1
FS 2 1 1
NC 2 1 1
DU 1 0 1
WF 0 1 -1
CL 0 1 -1
MD 0 1 -1
VT 1 3 -2
BC 1 3 -2
GT 0 2 -2
13 13 0

Now the road team has won 13 on the road out of 44 total ACC games. Miami's lead is impressive.

sagegrouse

As of today:

Miami's road wins
UNC (T-4th in ACC)
VT (7th)
BC (T-8th i.e. last place)
GT (T-8th)

Miami's remaining road games
Duke (T-2nd)
NCS (3rd)
FSU (T-4th)
Clemson (5th)
Wake (T-6th)

Duke's road losses
Miami (1st)
NCS (3rd)

Duke's road win
Wake (T-6th)

Duke's remaining road games
UVA (T-2nd)
FSU (T-4th)
UNC (T-4th)
Maryland (T-6th)
VT (7th)
BC (T-8th)

It looks like Miami has taken advantage of a relatively easy road schedule thus far. And while Duke still has some road games remaining against the upper half of the league, it certainly didn't help that the first two road games after Ryan got hurt were against #1 and #3 (and the only other ranked teams in the ACC).

[sagegrouse]

Miami's win was the capper today, and I thought State would survive. Miami joined Duke as road winners among the five games today. Maryland, BC and UNC (in overtime) held serve at home.

Duke is now in second on the Road Wins Minus Home Losses index.



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 5 0 5
DU 2 0 2
NC 2 1 1
VA 1 0 1
NS 1 1 0
FS 2 2 0
WF 0 1 -1
CL 0 1 -1
MD 0 1 -1
VT 1 3 -2
BC 1 3 -2
GT 0 2 -2
15 15 0


Only four of 12 teams in positive territory. Fifteen of 49 road teams have won this season.

sagegrouse

[sagegrouse]

Here is the "Road Win/Home Loss" analysis through Feb. 5. The "Index" is the difference between the two. Miami is the pacesetter. Only 16 of 53 games have been won by the road team.



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 5 0 5
DU 2 0 2
NC 2 1 1
VA 1 0 1
FS 3 2 1
NS 1 1 0
CL 0 1 -1
MD 0 1 -1
WF 0 1 -1
VT 1 3 -2
BC 1 3 -2
GT 0 3 -3
16 16 0


sagegrouse

[sagegrouse]

The travelers wents 3-0 yesterday, although only Virginia had a dominant performance. Still, the road record in the ACC is 21-41. or 0.339. Here are the details:



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 5 0 5
DU 3 0 3
VA 2 0 2
NC 2 1 1
NCS 2 1 1
FS 3 2 1
MD 1 2 -1
WF 0 1 -1
CL 0 2 -2
GT 1 3 -2
BC 1 4 -3
VT 1 5 -4
21 21 0


sagegrouse

[sagegrouse]

Road wins are still anemic in the ACC. Clemson won on the road tonight, however, for the first time.



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 6 0 6
DU 3 0 3
VA 2 0 2
NC 2 1 1
NCS 2 1 1
FS 3 3 0
MD 1 2 -1
CL 1 2 -1
WF 0 1 -1
GT 1 4 -3
BC 1 4 -3
VT 1 5 -4
23 23 0


Road teams are 23-44. Duke, Miami and Virginia have not lost at home; only Miami has not lost on the road -- yet!

sagegrouse

[sagegrouse]

Miami's streak of Houdini acts continues with a 45-43 win over Clemson after trailing by 4 in the last two minutes.



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 7 0 7
DU 3 0 3
VA 2 0 2
NC 2 1 1
NCS 2 1 1
FS 3 3 0
MD 1 2 -1
CL 1 3 -2
GT 2 4 -2
WF 0 2 -2
BC 1 4 -3
VT 1 5 -4
25 25 0

The index is calculated as +1 for a Road Win and -1 for a Home Loss.

Road Win percentage is 34.2%.

[sagegrouse]

The ACC road win percentage is now below 0.333. Pitiful, although I suppose it shows the potency of teams playing at home. Here are the details on the index based on road wins minus home losses.



Team Road Home
W L Index
MI 7 0 7
DU 4 0 4
NC 3 1 2
VA 2 0 2
NCS 2 1 1
FS 3 3 0
MD 1 2 -1
CL 1 3 -2
WF 0 2 -2
GT 2 5 -3
BC 1 4 -3
VT 1 6 -5
27 27 0



The only successful road teams among the 11 games in the past week were UNC at Georgia Tech and Duke at Va. Tech.

sagegrouse