MBB: Alabama 59, Kentucky 55

[FerryFor50]

And the bubble keeps on bursting...

[-bdbd]

Yeah, kind of an interesting night.

KY loses in a close, sloppy one at 'bama and is now 12-6, 3-2.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=330220333

#5 Louisville losing by 9 at 'nova.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=330220222

And #18 State, now with 2 ACC losses, loses another one to a team they should have handled easily at Wake. (What is up with them playing down to the level of the competition??!)
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=330220154

Unfortunately MD pulled out a close one at home vs lowly BC.


I guess Duke at Miami might determine the ACC champion... (well, maybe a little early to proclaim that) ;)

[wallyman]

Yeah, kind of an interesting night.

KY loses in a close, sloppy one at 'bama and is now 12-6, 3-2.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=330220333

#5 Louisville losing by 9 at 'nova.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=330220222

And #18 State, now with 2 ACC losses, loses another one to a team they should have handled easily at Wake. (What is up with them playing down to the level of the competition??!)
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=330220154

Unfortunately MD pulled out a close one at home vs lowly BC.


I guess Duke at Miami might determine the ACC champion... (well, maybe a little early to proclaim that) ;)




Jason Williams said Kentucky will still make the tournament. But the dream of that UK-UNC NIT semi-final still lives

[throatybeard]

I'm not really enjoying Kentucky's troubles, given that they were supposed to be one of our signature wins.

[FerryFor50]

I'm not really enjoying Kentucky's troubles, given that they were supposed to be one of our signature wins.

Good thing we have several other signature wins. :)

[DukeWarhead]

Was hoping that KSU would pull it out at Bramledge (sp?). I am begrudgingly (again, sp?) starting to accept that KU is pretty solid, eventhough I don't want to believe it. Finding a way to win is certainly a nice skill to have. Let's hope we have some of that tomorrow night.

[gep]

Yeah, kind of an interesting night.

...

And #18 State, now with 2 ACC losses, loses another one to a team they should have handled easily at Wake. (What is up with them playing down to the level of the competition??!)


Well... maybe more like "playing BELOW the level of the competition? :confused:

[wilko]

I'm not really enjoying Kentucky's troubles, given that they were supposed to be one of our signature wins.

I AM kind of enjoying it...
It could set up an interesting internal dynamic at UK.

Surely these young men didnt come to UK to be a part of a sub-par team. What if *some* of them actually WANT to improve and stick around another year so they have a shot at sticking in the league? Cal gonna kick them to the curb so they can possibly go to the D-league? That ain't the Oscar winning feel good story of the year....

That wasn't part of what Cal sold - I'm sure.... couldn't be..
So if he continues the routine of in with the new and out with the old - the bloom could well be falling of the rose and their recruiting returns to Earth. If the perception festers that he doesn't improve the fundamentals of a player going there... well then. Their bigs may be reduced to setting screens, flopping, and the team will be known as 3pt shooters fitting into a system.

Gander meet goose is all I'm saying...

THATS what I'm rooting for.

[CDu]

Surely these young men didnt come to UK to be a part of a sub-par team. What if *some* of them actually WANT to improve and stick around another year so they have a shot at sticking in the league? Cal gonna kick them to the curb so they can possibly go to the D-league? That ain't the Oscar winning feel good story of the year....

I am quite sure that Calipari would be just fine if Noel and Goodwin stick around for a second year. Goodwin would join the Harrison brothers in a very impressive 3-guard rotation, and Noel could either share the frontcourt with Johnson or be backed up by Johnson. And if they land Wiggins, they'd be an absolutely loaded team with a little bit of experience sprinkled in.

People talk about how it's all the one-and-dones for Calipari, but last year's championship included a senior and two sophomores as very key members of the team (along with 3 talented freshmen, of course). So it's not like he doesn't know what to do if players stick around an extra year.

[Monmouth77]

I am quite sure that Calipari would be just fine if Noel and Goodwin stick around for a second year. Goodwin would join the Harrison brothers in a very impressive 3-guard rotation, and Noel could either share the frontcourt with Johnson or be backed up by Johnson. And if they land Wiggins, they'd be an absolutely loaded team with a little bit of experience sprinkled in.

People talk about how it's all the one-and-dones for Calipari, but last year's championship included a senior and two sophomores as very key members of the team (along with 3 talented freshmen, of course). So it's not like he doesn't know what to do if players stick around an extra year.

Yes, but the model does depend to a significant degree on moving a critical mass of underclassmen out of the program every year. If guys do stick around in numbers, at some point he will either have to revoke scholarships or not bring in a fully loaded class. Either outcome will damage his projected image. As will an NIT appearance.

What's more likely though, I'd guess, is that Noel and Goodwin and Poythress and maybe even Cauley-Stein jump ship on the strength of their projected upside. Why stay if you can go lottery (or at least 1st round) and if you return you risk getting upstaged by the new guys who supposedly rate alongside the Fab Five. That outcome won't damage UK's rep as a high-profile pass-through for top talent, but it takes some of the shine off.

Calipari has created an image that is not sustainable. I admit that I root for it to fail. But I also think the evidence is coming in this year that he will not have sustained success along the lines of UK's performance from 2010-2012. Not every top recruiting class has a player as good as Anthony Davis (or Chris Webber or Carmelo Anthony) or someone as coachable and relentless as MKG. There are a lot more Nerlens Noels out there.

[CDu]

Yes, but the model does depend to a significant degree on moving a critical mass of underclassmen out of the program every year. If guys do stick around in numbers, at some point he will either have to revoke scholarships or not bring in a fully loaded class. Either outcome will damage his projected image. As will an NIT appearance.

I don't think that's a big concern unless it repeatedly happens. Having a few more guys stay an extra year (and then going after their sophomore year isn't going to put Calipari in a scholarship crunch. And if it ever did come to that, it'd be the bottom feeders (guys like Harrow) that would get cut, not Cal's elite recruits.

Calipari has already cut scholarships from lesser guys before, and it hasn't hurt his recruiting rep. So I see no reason to think that doing so again would hurt him.


Calipari has created an image that is not sustainable[/B]. I admit that I root for it to fail. But I also think the evidence is coming in this year that he will not have sustained success along the lines of UK's performance from 2010-2012. Not every top recruiting class has a player as good as Anthony Davis (or Chris Webber or Carmelo Anthony) or someone as coachable and relentless as MKG. There are a lot more Nerlens Noels out there.

I'm not sure why you think the image (or the approach) is unsustainable. Calipari has, over the past few years, repeatedly gotten top-tier high school talent to come to his program. So far this year he hasn't had the same success that he had the previous few years. But he's reloading again this summer and will likely continue to do so the following summer. All it takes is one of those classes to "hit" (and it wouldn't hurt if a key guy or two sticks around for next year as well) for the legacy to continue.

[Monmouth77]

I don't think that's a big concern unless it repeatedly happens. Having a few more guys stay an extra year (and then going after their sophomore year isn't going to put Calipari in a scholarship crunch. And if it ever did come to that, it'd be the bottom feeders (guys like Harrow) that would get cut, not Cal's elite recruits.

Calipari has already cut scholarships from lesser guys before, and it hasn't hurt his recruiting rep. So I see no reason to think that doing so again would hurt him.



I'm not sure why you think the image (or the approach) is unsustainable. Calipari has, over the past few years, repeatedly gotten top-tier high school talent to come to his program. So far this year he hasn't had the same success that he had the previous few years. But he's reloading again this summer and will likely continue to do so the following summer. All it takes is one of those classes to "hit" (and it wouldn't hurt if a key guy or two sticks around for next year as well) for the legacy to continue.

I guess we'll have to wait and see. So far Calipari has managed an unbroken string of results at UK that validate his approach. But I feel confident in saying that this team is not making the Elite Eight or the Final Four. It may not make the NCAA Tournament. If that happens, some of the shine will come off.

Funny things happen when a program starts to lose. People say unkind things. My only point is that so far it's been all roses for Calipari and UK. We'll see what happens when there are a few thorns in the mix.

[CDu]

I guess we'll have to wait and see. So far Calipari has managed an unbroken string of results at UK that validate his approach. But I feel confident in saying that this team is not making the Elite Eight or the Final Four. It may not make the NCAA Tournament. If that happens, some of the shine will come off.

Funny things happen when a program starts to lose. People say unkind things. My only point is that so far it's been all roses for Calipari and UK. We'll see what happens when there are a few thorns in the mix.

I tend to agree that the team won't make the elite-8. I suspect it'll still sneak into the tournament though. As for the "shine" coming off, all it takes is for next year's class to get him back to the elite-8 (and get him 3-4 more 1st round picks) and all is good again.

And if a couple of key frosh stick around from this year's squad, the chances of a deep tourney run next year get that much stronger.

[Arctic Orange]

I could watch Kentucky lose every day of the week. I couldnt imagine being a fan of that team with all the one and dones. I enjoy watching our players develop over the years, and I love seeing them get degrees. I would like to see a 2 year rule. Or, a little more out there: 3 years, just like football. With the option to go out of highschool. I think we would have a few years where to many people would try the draft out of highschool, but it would all fall into place, and its really not any different then having to many players leave for the NBA before they are ready anyway.



I wish Noel would have ended up at SU, he would be nasty in the middle of our zone.

[crimsonandblue]

I tend to agree that the team won't make the elite-8. I suspect it'll still sneak into the tournament though. As for the "shine" coming off, all it takes is for next year's class to get him back to the elite-8 (and get him 3-4 more 1st round picks) and all is good again.

And if a couple of key frosh stick around from this year's squad, the chances of a deep tourney run next year get that much stronger.

There are two kinds of shine here - recruiting shine and coaching/program-building shine. I don't see any way Cal's recruiting shine gets dinged by a down year. Poythress, Noel, Goodwin and Cauley-Stein are all likely first rounders and will all likely leave. The only lasting impression on recruits will be that Cal's program showcases guys for the NBA regardless of in-season accomplishment. And I think that's not only spin, but also mostly true. Cal's willing to run a department store picture window program that changes with each season, after the best goods are plucked from the display.

It'll take a few years of down performances to take the other coaching/program-building shine off of Cal. It may be that it takes just the right mix of spectacular frosh to get a title and that that's going to be a rarity, and maybe Kentucky fans will grow weary of being a televised A ball affiliate to the NBA if it means uneven returns. But that risk is a ways away.

[Dev11]

I could watch Kentucky lose every day of the week.

You're fitting in here really well. Keep up the good work, Orange dude.

[JasonEvans]

KY is 12-6 right now. They have 7 games left against the bottom 7 teams in the SEC. Those teams are not good (most are just a game or two around .500 on the season) and Kentucky's overwhelming talent should allow them to win. Kentucky is yet to lose a game to a team outside the top 75 in the RPI so it is pretty reasonable to expect them to win these games against the underbelly of the SEC. Plus, SEC teams have a loooong history of laying down for Kentucky. No reasons for that to stop now.

Now, here is the tough part -- The Wildcats have 4 games left against ranked teams (at Miss, at Fla, and home games with Mizzu and Fla). They als have 2 more games against teams that would be in the top 50-75 in the RPI (at Texas A&M and at Ark).

Of those 6 games against teams that would seem to have a reasonable chance to beat Kentucky, if they merely win the 2 home games on the schedule, plus the 7 games against the bad SEC teams, they would be 21-10. I have a hard time seeing a 21-10 Kentucky team, even if they then lost their first round SEC game (likely against one of those awful bottom tier teams), staying home from the NCAA tourney. If they find a way to win one of the road games at TA&M or Ark, it would give them a nice buffer and allow them to gaack one of those easy games, perhaps at GA or at TN, and still get to 21-10.

21 wins gets Kentucky to the Dance. Can we agree on that?

The peril for them comes if they cannot beat Mizzu and Fla at home or if they blow one of those supposedly easy games against the bottom of the SEC. If they are 20-11, for example, with very few signature wins, it could start to get dicey for them. Their problem is that they have shown no ability to beat teams in the RPI top 75 (1-6 vs. the Top 100). That's bad. Under the scenario I described above, where they beat Fla and Mizzu at home but lose their other games against decent teams, they would be 3-11 versus the RPI top 100... pretty ugly. I still think it will be enough to get them to the Dance, but their margin for error is small.

Of course, the next question would be seeding. They just have shown no ability to beat NCAA Tourney teams. So, even in the scenario I described above where they find their way to a 3-11 record vs the top 100, I am betting they get a pretty low seed -- like 10 or 11 or perhaps even the dreaded #12 seed play-in game.

-Jason "interestingly, Pomeroy likes Kentucky a lot more than the RPI does -- he has them at #19 while CBS' RPI has them at #52" Evans