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View Full Version : We are #1 again! (for reals)



matt1
01-19-2013, 06:09 PM
Louisville loses to Syracuse! That means that after just one week, we are #1 again.

Saratoga2
01-19-2013, 06:55 PM
Louisville loses to Syracuse! That means that after just one week, we are #1 again.

The holders or the #1 ranking often don't stay there long. Without Ryan, we are weakened and will have to struggle to win, particularly on the road. Hope we can hold it for a while again.

wilko
01-19-2013, 07:24 PM
Hope we can hold it for a while again.

Zactly!!
We may be #1 by some arcane poll math - but I really think we have work to do b4 we can do hearty chest thumpin over this.
I'd rather not have an additional target at the moment... but thats just me

jv001
01-19-2013, 07:28 PM
Zactly!!
We may be #1 by some arcane poll math - but I really think we have work to do b4 we can do hearty chest thumpin over this.
I'd rather not have an additional target at the moment... but thats just me

And we play a tough Miami team next and they will be fired up as every team does for DUKE. Looking for more improvment from Rasheed, Amile, Alex and a good shooting night from everyone. GoDuke!

matt1
01-19-2013, 07:32 PM
And we play a tough Miami team next and they will be fired up as every team does for DUKE. Looking for more improvment from Rasheed, Amile, Alex and a good shooting night from everyone. GoDuke!

Yeah, I bet Miami will be ranked for that one, too. That team currently is #4 per RPI.

cptnflash
01-19-2013, 07:44 PM
Kansas will get some votes as well, but we'll most likely carry the day.

OldPhiKap
01-19-2013, 07:52 PM
Until Ryan returns, and/or we come up with a workable plan in his absence, we may be ranked first but we are far from the best team in the country.

Cameron
01-19-2013, 08:25 PM
Until Ryan returns, and/or we come up with a workable plan in his absence, we may be ranked first but we are far from the best team in the country.

Exactly. Thanks for being a realist. This prophet of doom appreciates that.

Ryan is arguably the most versatile big man in the country. There isn't a better all-around offensive player over 6-10. He is, essentially, the fulcrum that makes our spacing-centric offense run as smoothly as it does. He's not replaceable, and we will be very fortunate to be playing in the second weekend of the tournament without him.

gofurman
01-19-2013, 08:25 PM
Yeah, I bet Miami will be ranked for that one, too. That team currently is #4 per RPI.

THIS - Miami is the lone team to stay unbeaten in league play. Win Wednesday and they have a strong hold on first place ACC as that puts Duke at 3-2. (Though we could make one back on the return trip to Cameron)..

Lose at Miami and it is no longer in our control as they say..

Though my point was merely how good Miami is. When they had Reggie Johnson they beat Michigan State ! This is a real team. Beat what we can see is a decent UNC team - more importantly, UNC may have 5 losses, but only one is at home - you got it - Miami. All othere UNC Losses were on the road. This includes a legit win over #20 UNLV.

Not to be too hung up on UNC but my point is Miami is legitimate. Larkin at point, Durand Scott has been a very good player for a while now, Kenny Kadji as one of the more 'Ryan Kelly' like players in the league as he can shoot at 6'11" (does not shoot as well as Kelly, but probably a little more athletic and a decent shooter), and Trey McKinney Jones too. THose 4 are very very solid players. That's why they have hung in despite the loss of Johnson. Honestly I could see Miami winning an NCAA game or two pretty easily with Reggie Johnson back. Key here is that all but Shane Larkin are Seniors too.

Really will not be shocked to see Duke lose this one - dont want that but its going to be tough ; just a little less tough than NC State I would say.

IBleedBlue
01-19-2013, 08:32 PM
Until Ryan returns, and/or we come up with a workable plan in his absence, we may be ranked first but we are far from the best team in the country.
With Ryan Kelly out, I doubt AP voters will vote more for us than Michigan, especially after Michigan's impressive road win over #8 Minnesota. I am guessing Michigan is going to get more number one votes this week than Duke.

wallyman
01-19-2013, 08:44 PM
At least I hope we're not. Just a bigger target on our back and more of an excuse for court storming if we lose at Miami. The team that will take the floor in Miami is not the best team in the country. If I had a vote, I'd put us third after Michigan and Kansas and hope we can pull off what would feel like an upset if we won at Miami without Ryan.

Misunderestimated
01-19-2013, 09:22 PM
I think Duke will get everyone's best shot whether they're ranked 1st or 358th. As long as Duke is on the front of the jersey and K is on the sideline.

Newton_14
01-19-2013, 10:23 PM
I think Duke will get everyone's best shot whether they're ranked 1st or 358th. As long as Duke is on the front of the jersey and K is on the sideline.


Well stated. 35 court rushes over the last 41 road losses confirms it. I would love to know who the 2nd place team is in terms of court rushed against, cause I bet the percentage is nowhere close to approaching ours...

Cameron
01-19-2013, 10:47 PM
Well stated. 35 court rushes over the last 41 road losses confirms it. I would love to know who the 2nd place team is in terms of court rushed against, cause I bet the percentage is nowhere close to approaching ours...

If you don't mind me asking, where did you find this "stat"? The only reason I ask is because I love that type of stuff. I'm a big numbers person with sports. I used to count on Duke Blue Planet the magazine for that type of unique, in-depth Duke information, but unfortunately that magazine is apparently no longer being distributed via mail.

ScreechTDX1847
01-19-2013, 10:49 PM
If you don't mind me asking, where did you find this "stat"? The only reason I ask is because I love that type of stuff. I'm a big numbers person with sports. I used to count on Duke Blue Planet the magazine for that type of unique, in-depth Duke information, but unfortunately that magazine is apparently no longer being distributed via mail.

It was in a recent article. Duke has been "court rushed" in 81% of their road losses over the years. Obviously, we are a top team in those losses.

-bdbd
01-19-2013, 10:53 PM
At least I hope we're not. Just a bigger target on our back and more of an excuse for court storming if we lose at Miami. The team that will take the floor in Miami is not the best team in the country. If I had a vote, I'd put us third after Michigan and Kansas and hope we can pull off what would feel like an upset if we won at Miami without Ryan.

Yeah, since the rankings really don't matter much until March, I was kinda hoping it might be another week or two before we took over that perch again, if only to deny anybody that little extra incentive of knocking off number one. And, yes, Miami is a VERY good team, albeit soimewhat underappreciated in the polls so far (oops, another incentive for the Canes...). Arrrgh!

Not that it matters much this early, but I think it fairly obvious Duke moves back to number one again this week, though KA and Mich certainly will get some love. Mostly just want to see us keep getting better, especially growing into our new roles/chemistry sans Kelly. This has turned into a really interesting season so far.... Hmmmm.

I'm really eager to see, given an extra six days of prep time, what K and staff start strategizing to do with our altered line-up. Will be interesting. Personally, I was really pleased to see AJ to get that foul bug a bit more under control vs Ga Tech, and play so many minutes (around 25 I think). Kid's going to be really important to us this year... :)

Cameron
01-19-2013, 10:55 PM
It was in a recent article. Duke has been "court rushed" in 81% of their road losses over the years. Obviously, we are a top team in those losses.

Thanks, Screech. I will scour Duke Update for it.

Lord Ash
01-19-2013, 11:19 PM
It is courtesy of the WSJ...

https://www.google.com/search?q=wall+street+journal+duke+court+rush&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari

wallyman
01-19-2013, 11:33 PM
Yeah, since the rankings really don't matter much until March, I was kinda hoping it might be another week or two before we took over that perch again, if only to deny anybody that little extra incentive of knocking off number one. And, yes, Miami is a VERY good team, albeit soimewhat underappreciated in the polls so far (oops, another incentive for the Canes...). Arrrgh!

Not that it matters much this early, but I think it fairly obvious Duke moves back to number one again this week, though KA and Mich certainly will get some love. Mostly just want to see us keep getting better, especially growing into our new roles/chemistry sans Kelly. This has turned into a really interesting season so far.... Hmmmm.

I'm really eager to see, given an extra six days of prep time, what K and staff start strategizing to do with our altered line-up. Will be interesting. Personally, I was really pleased to see AJ to get that foul bug a bit more under control vs Ga Tech, and play so many minutes (around 25 I think). Kid's going to be really important to us this year... :)




Operative point is not that it matters, because it doesn't. At all. And, yeah, no one seems to need a special invitation to rush the court vs us. But, even if it doesn't matter, really don't see why we merit #1. Gets down to questions of how much you reflect and discount injuries. But I doubt any voter really thinks our remarkable Nov-Dec. run would have been accomplished without Ryan on the court. Given his absence for anywhere from several more weeks to the rest of the season seems flawed to credit the lineup Duke now plays with the victories achieved by a different one when two really good teams (you could add Syracuse) have similar records and resumes. That said, here's hoping we beat Miami, render court rushing moot and add a bit more credence to wherever we end up -- 1, 2 or 3.

Kedsy
01-19-2013, 11:46 PM
He's not replaceable, and we will be very fortunate to be playing in the second weekend of the tournament without him.

OK, I agree that Ryan is uber-important for our team and I can respect a healthy dose of pessimism, but I completely disagree with the above. Without Ryan we should still be a Sweet 16 team (with the possibility of better if we get lucky). I think without Ryan we'd be "very fortunate" to play in the third weekend of the tourney, but I also think losing one of the first two games would be a big disappointment, rather than a reasonable expectation as you seem to imply.

Cameron
01-20-2013, 12:28 AM
OK, I agree that Ryan is uber-important for our team and I can respect a healthy dose of pessimism, but I completely disagree with the above. Without Ryan we should still be a Sweet 16 team (with the possibility of better if we get lucky). I think without Ryan we'd be "very fortunate" to play in the third weekend of the tourney, but I also think losing one of the first two games would be a big disappointment, rather than a reasonable expectation as you seem to imply.

The way I look at it, had Ryan not gotten injured last year, we probably win the ACC Tournament and advance to the Sweet 16. Based on the level at which we were playing prior to Kelly's absence, with him in the lineup we beat Lehigh and then go on to beat a good but far from great Xavier team. Without him in the lineup, we did none of those things.

While we are certainly a better overall team this year than last, especially with the improvement of our team defense and Mason on the block, Kelly's leave of absence has already shown signs of becoming glaringly troublesome if he doesn't return as the season moves forward. Simply put, without Kelly on the floor, our offense, as announcer Dave O'Brien accurately pointed out in our game against Georgia Tech, is disjointed. The spacing is just not there and that allows teams to really zone in on Mason. While Mason put together a nice stat line against N.C. State, he was completely ineffective against Tech and is an entirely different player without his stretch-four partner creating operating room for him inside. I think we will continue to see teams fluster Mason with double downs now that Kelly is not there to stretch the floor and, while Mason is a good enough player to continue to play well, he will not return to his early-season form unless Kelly returns.

I'm just not sold on being able to go very far without Kelly. I think he's that vital a factor to this team, as 2012 proved.

Kedsy
01-20-2013, 12:36 AM
The way I look at it, had Ryan not gotten injured last year, we probably win the ACC Tournament and advance to the Sweet 16. Based on the level at which we were playing prior to Kelly's absence, with him in the lineup we beat Lehigh and then go on to beat a good but far from great Xavier team.

I agree with this. I don't necessarily think this premise logically leads to your conclusion, however.


While we are certainly a better overall team this year than last, especially with the improvement of our team defense and Mason on the block, Kelly's leave of absence has already shown signs of becoming glaringly troublesome if he doesn't return as the season moves forward. Simply put, without Kelly on the floor, our offense, as announcer Dave O'Brien accurately pointed out in our game against Georgia Tech, is disjointed. The spacing is just not there and that allows teams to really zone in on Mason. While Mason put together a nice stat line against N.C. State, he was completely ineffective against Tech and is an entirely different player without his stretch-four partner creating operating room for him inside. I think we will continue to see teams fluster Mason with double downs now that Kelly is not there to stretch the floor and, while Mason is a good enough player to continue to play well, he will not return to his early-season form unless Kelly returns.

I'm just not sold on being able to go very far without Kelly. I think he's that vital a factor to this team, as 2012 proved.

Our team is a lot better than last year's team, even without Ryan. I agree we have offensive issues without him, as I have detailed in other threads, and I believe the defensive issues are possibly even greater. That said, I believe Duke without Ryan Kelly is easily one of the top 16 teams in the country, so while it's possible we'd lose an early tourney game if he didn't play, the most likely possibility is that we wouldn't.

You have stated we'd be "very fortunate" to reach the Sweet 16 without Ryan. I would say the opposite, we'd be unfortunate to fail to get that far. There are no certainties in a one-and-done tournament, so who knows at this point what would happen, but to me it seems the differences between your and my outlook are significant.

gumbomoop
01-20-2013, 03:00 AM
Though my point was merely how good Miami is. When they had Reggie Johnson they beat Michigan State! This is a real team.

Larkin at point, Durand Scott has been a very good player for a while now, Kenny Kadji is one of the more 'Ryan Kelly' like players in the league as he can shoot at 6'11" (does not shoot as well as Kelly, but probably a little more athletic and a decent shooter), and Trey McKinney Jones too. THose 4 are very very solid players. That's why they have hung in despite the loss of Johnson. Honestly I could see Miami winning an NCAA game or two pretty easily with Reggie Johnson back. Key here is that all but Shane Larkin are Seniors too.

Agree and have posted previously re how solid Miami is. Three road wins already. If they beat Duke, they hold down #1 in conference, and play a slightly easier ACC schedule than Duke from there on. Beat Duke, and Miami becomes co-favorite with Duke and NCSt win ACC reg season. Maybe even favorite, depending on Reggie's return.


Until Ryan returns, and/or we come up with a workable plan in his absence, we may be ranked first but we are far from the best team in the country.


Mostly just want to see us keep getting better, especially growing into our new roles/chemistry sans Kelly. This has turned into a really interesting season so far.... Hmmmm.

I'm really eager to see, given an extra six days of prep time, what K and staff start strategizing to do with our altered line-up.

How will K and staff plan to beat a Reggie-less but still formidable Miami with a Ryan-less but still formidable Duke roster? It is an interesting strategizing problem in an interesting, tricky season. Will Amile join Tyler as dependable, even super, subs? Seems obvious that the roles-issues we're anticipating for upcoming Miami game are Rasheed/Tyler and Josh/Amile, as Quinn, Seth [injury permitting], and Mason are in for 36-40 mpg.

Miami essentially plays a 6-man rotation, trying to steal a few minutes to relieve an inconsistent but improving Julian Gamble and the experienced and dangerous Kenny Kadji. I expect Gamble to be fired up, fierce, ready to play Mason tough. Miami rotates 4 solid if inconsistent players on the perimeter. Trey McKinney Jones takes about 1/2 his shots from 3-land, hitting 41% out there, whereas Rion Brown takes nearly 60% of his shots from 3-land, while sinking but 22% of these, uh, duds. Go figure. I expect K to do so.

Bob Green
01-20-2013, 08:12 AM
I'm really eager to see, given an extra six days of prep time, what K and staff start strategizing to do with our altered line-up. Will be interesting. Personally, I was really pleased to see AJ to get that foul bug a bit more under control vs Ga Tech, and play so many minutes (around 25 I think). Kid's going to be really important to us this year... :)

I have multiple thoughts on the discussions in this thread starting with Duke is not the best team in the country without Ryan Kelly, at least not yet. The team and coaching staff are still adjusting to life without Kelly. So perhaps we will be #1 in the polls tomorrow, but I don't believe we are the best team at this specific moment in time.

Miami is a really good team who will challenge us in Coral Gables. It will take a solid defensive effort to beat the 'Canes starting with Quinn Cook putting the clamps on point guard Larkin with strong on ball defense. We cannot allow Miami to be comfortable in the half court. The second key match-up will be Hairston/Jefferson/Murphy versus Kenny Kadji. Kadji is a guy who can hurt you inside and out so our power forward platoon must play solid.

As far as the long term development of the team moving toward March and the post season, I am solidly in the camp of those who believe the more Amile Jefferson plays, and the better Amile Jefferson plays, the better our chances are of winning ball games. In the two games since Kelly re-injured his foot, Jefferson has averaged 8 points and 7 rebounds in 20 minutes of action. However, he played 28 of the 40 minutes in the second game. We need Jefferson to continue to develop especially on defense if the new look Blue Devils are to achieve their full potential.

DukeWarhead
01-20-2013, 09:58 AM
At least I hope we're not. Just a bigger target on our back and more of an excuse for court storming if we lose at Miami. The team that will take the floor in Miami is not the best team in the country. If I had a vote, I'd put us third after Michigan and Kansas and hope we can pull off what would feel like an upset if we won at Miami without Ryan.

Rankings aren't important, but I fail to understand the Jayhawk love (both pre-season and now). They have recently eeked out close wins against unranked teams (ISU, Texas). I just don't see how their resume puts them ahead of Duke, minus some kind of "groove" that people think they are in. Nothing they've done in the past week suggests a leap-frog from last week's rankings. Sure, they are very, very good - but I look at their schedule and I don't see a whole lot to trumpet other that the win over OSU a while back.

But, like I said, rankings don't matter - until selection Sunday.

Cameron
01-20-2013, 12:15 PM
The way I look at it, had Ryan not gotten injured last year, we probably win the ACC Tournament and advance to the Sweet 16. Based on the level at which we were playing prior to Kelly's absence, with him in the lineup we beat Lehigh and then go on to beat a good but far from great Xavier team.



I agree with this. I don't necessarily think this premise logically leads to your conclusion, however.

The point I am trying to make, whether it will stand to be valid or not (hopefully we don't have to find out), is that without Ryan last year we accomplished none of the things I mention in my original post above, while we easily would have with him. I am drawing the conclusion that while we are a better overall team this year, Ryan's absence hurts this team equally as much due to how much our offense depends on his ability to space the floor and open things up for not only Mason but also penetration for our guards, especially Rasheed and Quinn. Our biggest improvement from last year to this year has arguably been Mason's insurgence, and our ability to play inside-out first. But with Ryan out of the lineup, IMO that part of our attack is greatly reduced. In just two games, including one against a terrible Georgia Tech team, we've already seen significant signs of Mason's propensity to struggle without Ryan.



Our team is a lot better than last year's team, even without Ryan. I agree we have offensive issues without him, as I have detailed in other threads, and I believe the defensive issues are possibly even greater. That said, I believe Duke without Ryan Kelly is easily one of the top 16 teams in the country, so while it's possible we'd lose an early tourney game if he didn't play, the most likely possibility is that we wouldn't.

As I pointed out earlier, I agree that we are a better team this year than last. But, as we all know, being one of the 16 best teams on paper means absolutely nothing in the NCAA Tournament. Say, for example, we are a one or two seed in March, and matched up against a seven or eight seed like Wisconsin or Baylor or Vegas in the second round that has a bevy of really long, versatile, athletic forwards who can play on the perimeter as well as inside. A matchup like that without Ryan would present a very difficult challenge. Not only could those teams keep multiple guys geared on Mason defensively all game long, since none of Ryan's backups have proven to be able to successfully shoot a jump shot, but we'd also have a hard time guarding the four spot on the perimeter against guys like Isiah Austin and Anthony Bennett and the slew of three-point shooting bigs from Wisconsin.


You have stated we'd be "very fortunate" to reach the Sweet 16 without Ryan. I would say the opposite, we'd be unfortunate to fail to get that far. There are no certainties in a one-and-done tournament, so who knows at this point what would happen, but to me it seems the differences between your and my outlook are significant.

Cosign. I think you and I will, per usual, have to agree to disagree.

JasonEvans
01-20-2013, 12:33 PM
But, like I said, rankings don't matter - until selection Sunday.

Heck, there is even an argument that they don't matter all that much on selection Sunday. Lately, the computer rankings have been a better predictor of Tourney success than the human rankings. Though it is becoming harder to say that as the human voters are watching the computers more and more and attempting to mimic them at least a little bit.

-Jason "is Duke minus Kelley a bigger loss than Miami minus RJ? The answer to that may determine how long we are ranked #1" Evans

Wander
01-20-2013, 01:01 PM
The way I look at it, had Ryan not gotten injured last year, we probably win the ACC Tournament and advance to the Sweet 16. Based on the level at which we were playing prior to Kelly's absence, with him in the lineup we beat Lehigh and then go on to beat a good but far from great Xavier team. Without him in the lineup, we did none of those things.


The "level at which we were playing prior to Kelly's absence" was getting crushed by UNC at home - the same UNC team you're claiming we would probably beat on a neutral floor a week later - and needing overtime to edge out a terrible Virginia Tech team at home.

I suppose it's reasonable to say that we'd likely not lose to Lehigh with Kelly, but that's about it for me.

Des Esseintes
01-20-2013, 01:30 PM
The "level at which we were playing prior to Kelly's absence" was getting crushed by UNC at home - the same UNC team you're claiming we would probably beat on a neutral floor a week later - and needing overtime to edge out a terrible Virginia Tech team at home.

I suppose it's reasonable to say that we'd likely not lose to Lehigh with Kelly, but that's about it for me.

One blowout at the hands of an extremely motivated and angry opponent is hardly conclusive data. When we lost Kelly, we'd also just recently handled Florida State on its home court. Then, without Kelly, we lost to that FSU team by 3 points. Florida State went on to win the final, completing its ownage of UNC on the season. With Kelly, we likely do beat FSU in the semis, and then get a rubber match against the Carolina team that was, you know, swept by Florida State. It's not Everest, man. I agree that we were not going to be the odds-on favorite for the tournament championship even with a healthy Kelly, but we were a close co-favorite.

We were 13-3 in conference play last season. We went 7-0 in February with wins over Carolina and Florida State. The team was not playing badly.

TexHawk
01-20-2013, 01:36 PM
Rankings aren't important, but I fail to understand the Jayhawk love (both pre-season and now). They have recently eeked out close wins against unranked teams (ISU, Texas). I just don't see how their resume puts them ahead of Duke, minus some kind of "groove" that people think they are in. Nothing they've done in the past week suggests a leap-frog from last week's rankings. Sure, they are very, very good - but I look at their schedule and I don't see a whole lot to trumpet other that the win over OSU a while back.


KU has won 15 games in a row. If we are going off of "body of work", they shouldn't be ahead of Duke, I agree. But this "groove" you mention is how the weekly polls work, they always have. Also, if you're going to discount a KU win at Ohio State 4 weeks ago as 'a while ago'. What do you do with similar wins by Duke that took place in November?

KU was #7 preseason, is #4 now. You don't understand this "love", but you then say they are very, very good. Where should they be?

Saratoga2
01-20-2013, 01:51 PM
KU has won 15 games in a row. If we are going off of "body of work", they shouldn't be ahead of Duke, I agree. But this "groove" you mention is how the weekly polls work, they always have. Also, if you're going to discount a KU win at Ohio State 4 weeks ago as 'a while ago'. What do you do with similar wins by Duke that took place in November?

KU was #7 preseason, is #4 now. You don't understand this "love", but you then say they are very, very good. Where should they be?

I don't see Kansas as moving to #1 based on their recent play. Michigan, Florida and Syracuse are playing the best ball, although Syracuse exposed the Louisville point guard as being over hyped and they were lucky to win. Florida really was impressive with their 31 point win over Missouri. The Missouri guard Pressy was also exposed as over hyped.

That points our that Quinn is the equal or better than some of the most hyped PGs in America.

TexHawk
01-20-2013, 01:59 PM
I don't see Kansas as moving to #1 based on their recent play. Michigan, Florida and Syracuse are playing the best ball, although Syracuse exposed the Louisville point guard as being over hyped and they were lucky to win. Florida really was impressive with their 31 point win over Missouri. The Missouri guard Pressy was also exposed as over hyped.


Oh I don't disagree. I was just saying that you shouldn't be surprised that KU gets some votes/love. Throw in that poll voters are not always the most educated, some only look at final scores. They may even see a hard-fought win at Texas as a good win (and not realize that Texas is 8-9).

Pressey has been over-hyped all year. He shoots way too much, and hits barely north of 30%. "BUT HE HAD 19 ASSISTS ONCE!!1!1"

-jk
01-20-2013, 02:45 PM
Heck, there is even an argument that they don't matter all that much on selection Sunday. Lately, the computer rankings have been a better predictor of Tourney success than the human rankings. Though it is becoming harder to say that as the human voters are watching the computers more and more and attempting to mimic them at least a little bit.

-Jason "is Duke minus Kelley a bigger loss than Miami minus RJ? The answer to that may determine how long we are ranked #1" Evans

In general, I agree. I seem to recall, though, (and I'll leave the exercise for the students) that the first few seeds track more closely to the human polls. For that, I'd love to be the top seed that would feed into the East.

-jk

DukeWarhead
01-20-2013, 02:58 PM
KU was #7 preseason, is #4 now. You don't understand this "love", but you then say they are very, very good. Where should they be?

They should be behind Duke, come Monday. If they are not, and they are ranked #1, then my complaint about the unwarranted "love" will continue. I watched the KU-Texas game yesterday, and nothing about it suggested that KU is playing better than Michigan or Duke right now.

Of course, if the Jayhawks handle a hot KSU team easily and Duke loses to Miami (both quite possible) then I will be forced to shut up.

But I suppose, when it's all said and done, arguing about #1 vs. #2 or #3 in January is like arguing who has the cooler jersey. (KU should have never ditched the old-style lettering BTW).

IBleedBlue
01-20-2013, 03:35 PM
Miami's Kenny Kadji does exactly for Miami what Ryan Kelly does for our team. He is a match up nightmare for any defense. He can take it to the post and can step out and shoot decent percentage from three point line.
Amile Jefferson needs to step up his defense against him.

toooskies
01-20-2013, 04:53 PM
Miami's Kenny Kadji does exactly for Miami what Ryan Kelly does for our team. He is a match up nightmare for any defense. He can take it to the post and can step out and shoot decent percentage from three point line.
Amile Jefferson needs to step up his defense against him.

Luckily, I'm sure Amile got plenty of practice time against Ryan.

johnpope
01-20-2013, 06:54 PM
Louisville loses to Syracuse! That means that after just one week, we are #1 again.

The powers that be at ESPN don't think we're even among the top 3 teams with the best claim for No.1, and I tend to agree it won't happen. But it really doesn't matter at this point, as long as we stay in the top-3 or top4 and get a no.1 seed, that's all we need from these rankings. Much more important, imo, is to improve our game and get used to playing without Kelly.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/73428/at-the-watercooler-whos-no-1

JasonEvans
01-20-2013, 07:11 PM
The powers that be at ESPN don't think we're even among the top 3 teams with the best claim for No.1, and I tend to agree it won't happen. But it really doesn't matter at this point, as long as we stay in the top-3 or top4 and get a no.1 seed, that's all we need from these rankings. Much more important, imo, is to improve our game and get used to playing without Kelly.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/73428/at-the-watercooler-whos-no-1

While the silly folks at ESPN talk about how we are not the same time without Kelly, I merely want to point out the following...

If they drop us in the polls when we lose without Kelly, are they going to instantly elevate us back to #1 as soon as he returns? After all, Duke with Kelly was the resounding #1 team in the land.

-Jason "silly talk" Evans

Des Esseintes
01-20-2013, 07:14 PM
The powers that be at ESPN don't think we're even among the top 3 teams with the best claim for No.1, and I tend to agree it won't happen. But it really doesn't matter at this point, as long as we stay in the top-3 or top4 and get a no.1 seed, that's all we need from these rankings. Much more important, imo, is to improve our game and get used to playing without Kelly.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/73428/at-the-watercooler-whos-no-1

Pretty sure neither of these guys even has a vote in the AP ballot. And regardless, both are young staff writers for the website, hardly behind-closed-doors cigar aficionados. The real "powers that be" at ESPN, to the extent they care about this particular question, would probably be more than happy for Duke to regain #1. Duke is propping up the ACC tv schedule this year. I'd also add that Brennon and Medcalf's analysis overlooks what is usually by far the most salient issue regarding the polls, which is that #1 and #2 lost and Duke is #3. Most voters don't look much further than that, for better or worse.

In any event, I think it's fun to be #1.

Cameron
01-20-2013, 08:16 PM
The "level at which we were playing prior to Kelly's absence" was getting crushed by UNC at home - the same UNC team you're claiming we would probably beat on a neutral floor a week later - and needing overtime to edge out a terrible Virginia Tech team at home.

I suppose it's reasonable to say that we'd likely not lose to Lehigh with Kelly, but that's about it for me.

As Des Esseintes pointed out, despite the obvious outlier against UNC at home, we were playing some pretty good basketball prior to Kelly's injury last season. After the convincing win at Florida State and the comeback victory over N.C. State, many here were drawing parallels to the resiliency of our 2010 squad (notably the double-digit comeback in Coral Gables that season) and talking national championship. Spirits were incredibly high here at that point in the year. While the 18-point home loss to UNC certainly quieted some of the buzz, even our greatest teams have experienced similar setbacks late in the season. The 2001 team lost by double-digits to Maryland in Shane Battier's final game in Cameron, and midway through the ACC schedule in 2010 we were blown out at N.C. State, trailing by 20 at one point and losing by 14.

Some nights things just don't go your way.

Wander
01-20-2013, 10:38 PM
As Des Esseintes pointed out, despite the obvious outlier against UNC at home, we were playing some pretty good basketball prior to Kelly's injury last season. After the convincing win at Florida State and the comeback victory over N.C. State, many here were drawing parallels to the resiliency of our 2010 squad (notably the double-digit comeback in Coral Gables that season) and talking national championship. Spirits were incredibly high here at that point in the year. While the 18-point home loss to UNC certainly quieted some of the buzz, even our greatest teams have experienced similar setbacks late in the season. The 2001 team lost by double-digits to Maryland in Shane Battier's final game in Cameron, and midway through the ACC schedule in 2010 we were blown out at N.C. State, trailing by 20 at one point and losing by 14.

Some nights things just don't go your way.

I guarantee you that Duke would have been an underdog against Carolina in the ACC finals last year, even with a healthy Ryan Kelly. So I don't know how you can say "we probably would have won the ACC tournament if we were healthy." Could we have? Of course, much stranger things have happened. But we would not have been favored.

The 2012 team was a good team that achieved a better-than-they-should-have-had record largely based on excellent coaching and heroics by Austin Rivers. I'm sure there were some people drawing parallels to 2010... but let's be honest, that's going to be true of every single Duke team over the next couple decades that exceeds expectations. But I do think we're much better this season.

scottdude8
01-21-2013, 10:54 AM
Not sure if anyone else has brought this up (didn't want to read through the entire thread) but its sounding less and less like we'll be No. 1 later today. Seth Davis had us ranked No. 3 behind Michigan and Syracuse, and the guys who do the "at the watercooler" thing on ESPN also had Michigan as No.1. While I still think if the tourney started today we'd have the No. 1 overall seed given our SOS, I can see the argument for not having us ranked No.1 right now: the rankings, at least to me, serve more as a temperature of who is playing the best basketball at this moment, who had the best week, etc., instead of long term who is the best team or has the best resume. With Kelly out and a subpar performance (at least in the first half) against GT, along with Michigan and Syracuse both getting huge road wins, I'm OK with either of them being ahead of us for the moment, as long as we're No.1 come March.

chrishoke
01-21-2013, 11:05 AM
Thank God this is not football.

DBFAN
01-21-2013, 11:47 AM
Thank God this is not football.

I had a discussion with someone last night about this scenario The prob with giving the nod to Michigan and Syracuse is that it becomes more like the BCS Not fair to Punish Duke just because their Schedule did not have a marquee game last week Duke didn't do anything but win And to say that if it were the Tourney then you would give them the number 1 overall seed is sorta contradicting the overall point. By saying we have the top schedule out of those three and to say that the other teams deserve to be ahead of us doesn't really compute for me Grant it everyone has their right to think what they want but I am pretty sure Michigan received a first place vote from Seth Davis the week after Atlantis He is just gonna vote against Duke any chance he has The person I talked with last night actually bumped Duke to 4 behind Louisville even though we beat them And yes I know they didn't have their big man, but I didn't see anything on Saturday to make me think we still couldn't beat them, and they couldn't handle Syr even though they were a man down Just my 2 cents

DBFAN
01-21-2013, 11:55 AM
I also meant to say in my previous rant that if Duke is down a man and not playing their best without him how can we say Syr is down one but they are better It may just be me but I think people are over rating Louisville I know they are not bad I just don't think their offense is good enough to go all the way I found VCU defense much better, so all in all beating Loui is just a bloated statistic How many years have we heard about them and then nothing ever comes to fruition Don't get me wrong Pitino is a great coach but I think sometimes like a lot of other teams they get the benefit of the doubt because of his capability rather than the teams

Kedsy
01-21-2013, 12:50 PM
Not sure if anyone else has brought this up (didn't want to read through the entire thread) but its sounding less and less like we'll be No. 1 later today. Seth Davis had us ranked No. 3 behind Michigan and Syracuse, and the guys who do the "at the watercooler" thing on ESPN also had Michigan as No.1.

A lot of good angst wasted: Duke back to #1 in AP poll (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings).

I guess that shows the ESPN talking heads don't have complete control over the AP voters.

Now, the next question probably ought to be why does anybody care, but I'll leave that to others.

gumbomoop
01-21-2013, 12:52 PM
Devils #1, Michigan 2, KU and 'Cuse tied for 3.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8865479/duke-blue-devils-return-no-1-fifth-week-atop-associated-press-poll

ETA: Late am I. Kedsy has quick-draw; I shoulda known not to challenge it.

jv001
01-21-2013, 12:53 PM
1. Duke 39 first place votes
2 Michigan 11
3. Tie: Kansas & Syracuse
5. Louisville
6. Arizona
7. Indiana
8. Florida
9. Butler
10. Gonzaga

About what I thought, but Florida sure looks good for 8th. GoDuke!

jv001
01-21-2013, 12:55 PM
1. Duke 39 first place votes
2 Michigan 11
3. Tie: Kansas & Syracuse
5. Louisville
6. Arizona
7. Indiana
8. Florida
9. Butler
10. Gonzaga

About what I thought, but Florida sure looks good for 8th. GoDuke!

Man, I'm the slowest typist on the planet. GoDuke!

Papa John
01-21-2013, 12:56 PM
I also meant to say in my previous rant that if Duke is down a man and not playing their best without him how can we say Syr is down one but they are better It may just be me but I think people are over rating Louisville I know they are not bad I just don't think their offense is good enough to go all the way I found VCU defense much better, so all in all beating Loui is just a bloated statistic How many years have we heard about them and then nothing ever comes to fruition Don't get me wrong Pitino is a great coach but I think sometimes like a lot of other teams they get the benefit of the doubt because of his capability rather than the teams

Nothing comes to fruition? Didn't Louisville make the Final Four last season, while our guys were sitting at home watching on t.v.?

Look, I agree with your initial point--it's kinda silly for analysts to be giving some teams the benefit of the doubt in ratings because they are lacking a key player, yet to not do the same for other teams. But sports analysts pull this male-bovine-fecal-matter stuff all the time, so the most productive course of action is to chuckle once, shrug it off, and move on.

As for Louisville this season--they look pretty darn good to me. That UL-Syracuse game was fun to watch. Both teams are solid, play great defense, and both will soon be members of the ACC. After watching that game, the first thought that popped into my head was, "wonder if anyone watching that gives a hoot about Maryland leaving the conference?" I sure don't. My second thought was, "wow, what a game! That was a Final Four type battle!"

As for Duke... Personally, I don't care if the blowhard analysts rank us #1. It's irrelevant at this point in the season.

DBFAN
01-21-2013, 01:04 PM
Nothing comes to fruition? Didn't Louisville make the Final Four last season, while our guys were sitting at home watching on t.v.?

Look, I agree with your initial point--it's kinda silly for analysts to be giving some teams the benefit of the doubt in ratings because they are lacking a key player, yet to not do the same for other teams. But sports analysts pull this male-bovine-fecal-matter stuff all the time, so the most productive course of action is to chuckle once, shrug it off, and move on.

As for Louisville this season--they look pretty darn good to me. That UL-Syracuse game was fun to watch. Both teams are solid, play great defense, and both will soon be members of the ACC. After watching that game, the first thought that popped into my head was, "wonder if anyone watching that gives a hoot about Maryland leaving the conference?" I sure don't. My second thought was, "wow, what a game! That was a Final Four type battle!"

As for Duke... Personally, I don't care if the blowhard analysts rank us #1. It's irrelevant at this point in the season.

I guess it's all moot now since we are #1 now..lol

But I wasn't just referring to last year but there have been several years the prognosticators thought they were a final 4 team..anyways it doesn't really matter like you said, but while I agree with you that game was exciting, the last few minutes were very sloppy especially on Louivilles part, very far from polished

freshmanjs
01-21-2013, 01:29 PM
I guess it's all moot now since we are #1 now..lol

But I wasn't just referring to last year but there have been several years the prognosticators thought they were a final 4 team..anyways it doesn't really matter like you said, but while I agree with you that game was exciting, the last few minutes were very sloppy especially on Louivilles part, very far from polished

louisville has made the final 4 twice since 2005. in that period, duke has made it just once. if you go back one year to include 2004, then it's 2-2. and if you include the entire pitino era at louisville (2001 - now), then it's still 2-2. so i don't know how you can argue that louisville success never comes to fruition unless you also would say the same about Duke

DBFAN
01-21-2013, 01:46 PM
louisville has made the final 4 twice since 2005. in that period, duke has made it just once. if you go back one year to include 2004, then it's 2-2. and if you include the entire pitino era at louisville (2001 - now), then it's still 2-2. so i don't know how you can argue that louisville success never comes to fruition unless you also would say the same about Duke

But the big Diff is since 2001 we have 2 titles. Look I'm not really trying to argue I just don't think that team has what it takes to win it all. And I have seen nothing this year that really changed my mind about it. The big east style if being physical above everything else doesn't always work out. Really hampers the offense after awhile. But I will admit that that I forgot about 2005 so that's my bad. I'm just glad Duke got what they deserved today a #1 ranking.

hustleplays
01-21-2013, 10:15 PM
A lot of good angst wasted: Duke back to #1 in AP poll (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings).

I guess that shows the ESPN talking heads don't have complete control over the AP voters.

Now, the next question probably ought to be why does anybody care, but I'll leave that to others.

I find it interesting that 4 out of the top 25 are so-called Mid Majors [Butler, Gonzaga, Creighton, VCU].

1 24 90
01-21-2013, 11:06 PM
I find it interesting that 4 out of the top 25 are so-called Mid Majors [Butler, Gonzaga, Creighton, VCU].

Don't forget New Mexico & Wichita State and even San Diego State in the coaches poll.

gumbomoop
01-22-2013, 12:16 AM
ESPN "Power Rankings" - meaningless maybe, but interesting. Click on all voters, 1-18. Wild disparity, probably understandable.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/powerrankings

"For starters, there are five -- five -- teams that received No. 1 votes. One of those teams, Duke, is the object of much debate among our voters.

The Blue Devils actually garnered the second-most first-place votes (five), but ended up fourth overall because some don't completely trust a Ryan Kelly-less Devils and ranked them closer to 10th than first. It's just been that kind of week."

uh_no
01-22-2013, 12:30 AM
ESPN "Power Rankings" - meaningless maybe, but interesting. Click on all voters, 1-18. Wild disparity, probably understandable.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/powerrankings

"For starters, there are five -- five -- teams that received No. 1 votes. One of those teams, Duke, is the object of much debate among our voters.

The Blue Devils actually garnered the second-most first-place votes (five), but ended up fourth overall because some don't completely trust a Ryan Kelly-less Devils and ranked them closer to 10th than first. It's just been that kind of week."

and once again, seth greenberg proves he has no idea what he's talking about.....i'm much more shocked with AZ at #3 than duke.....but then again, seth greenberg did only ever care about win totals, and not the quality of the opponents....