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View Full Version : What Will Duke be Ranked Next Week?



matt1
01-12-2013, 03:05 PM
I know that rankings do not really matter, but they are still fun.

THIS WEEK:
1- Duke- Beat Clemson (home), Lost at #20 NC State
2- Michigan- Beat Nebraska (home), at Ohio State (tomorrow)
3- Louisville- Beat Seton Hall (away), vs. South Florida (today)
4- Arizona- Lost at Oregon (home), at Oregon St. (today)
5- Indiana- Beat Penn St. (away) and #8 Minnesota (home)
6- Kansas- Beat Iowa St. in OT (home), at Texas Tech (today)
7- Syracuse- Beat Providence (away) and Villanova (home)
8- Minnesota- Beat #12 Illinois (away), Lost to #5 Indiana (away)
9- Gonzaga- Beat St. Mary's (home)
10- Missouri- Beat Alabama (home), at Ole Miss (today)

I say that as of now, Duke is #4 (behind Michigan, Louisville, and Indiana). Should Louisville and/or Michigan lose, Duke would stay ahead of either of them.

ScreechTDX1847
01-12-2013, 03:07 PM
We will be #5

CDu
01-12-2013, 03:10 PM
Don't know. Don't care. Probably still top 5. Not worried about where until March.

1 24 90
01-12-2013, 03:24 PM
I think #5 with Kansas at #4 even though Kansas has struggled in their last 2 home games. Depends on how Michigan does tomorrow although even if they lose they could still be ranked above Duke. Doesn't really matter - let's just beat Georgia Tech on Thursday.

AsiaMinor
01-12-2013, 04:53 PM
Don't care about rankings, I care about effort. IMO for effort we're still number 1.

tommy
01-12-2013, 05:30 PM
Doesn't matter at all, but I'd be surprised if the voters don't recognize that our loss was not only to a top-20 (or better team) on the road, but that we played without a key player, and not knock us down much.

Edouble
01-13-2013, 02:10 AM
I agree with the OP. Assuming no other Top 5 teams lose, I think it's pretty clearly:

1. Michigan
2. Louisville
3. Indiana
4. Duke
5. Kansas

I don't see KU leapfrogging Duke with an OT win against Iowa St.

I also agree with some other posters that I don't really care too much.

-bdbd
01-13-2013, 03:12 AM
I agree with the OP. Assuming no other Top 5 teams lose, I think it's pretty clearly:

1. Michigan
2. Louisville
3. Indiana
4. Duke
5. Kansas

I don't see KU leapfrogging Duke with an OT win against Iowa St.

I also agree with some other posters that I don't really care too much.

Agreed. Duke played pretty darn well against an accellerating top-20 team, in their arena, and with a core/starter player out. Duke was competitive the whole game too, and is still only a 1-loss squad with a strong SOS ranking. I'll root like hell for OSU vs Mich. Sun., as that's the difference of dropping to 4th, or just to third. :rolleyes:

A second loss would have a bigger (drop) impact in the rankings.

Furniture
01-13-2013, 03:28 PM
Well Ohio state is trying to lose it but still might win. If Michigan loses what then?

IBleedBlue
01-13-2013, 03:31 PM
Well Ohio state is trying to lose it but still might win. If Michigan loses what then?
TOSU is doing a fine job of choking the game away.

Furniture
01-13-2013, 03:36 PM
Michigans turn to choke?

Furniture
01-13-2013, 03:41 PM
Very nice Michigan loss will probably pick the boys up.....

subzero02
01-13-2013, 04:43 PM
I think we will be 3 or 4... The first place votes will be spread over several teams though

DBFAN
01-13-2013, 04:59 PM
Not that it will happen, but if the team that is going to be number one is a team Duke already beat, and it is Dukes first loss the. They shouldn't drop any further than 2nd. But I imagine Duke will get treated more severely for their first loss on the road to the number 20 team in the nation, than Mich does for their first loss to the number 18 Buckeyes which Duke already beat

uh_no
01-13-2013, 05:17 PM
Not that it will happen, but if the team that is going to be number one is a team Duke already beat, and it is Dukes first loss the. They shouldn't drop any further than 2nd. But I imagine Duke will get treated more severely for their first loss on the road to the number 20 team in the nation, than Mich does for their first loss to the number 18 Buckeyes which Duke already beat

we beat them at full strength and they were missing a major piece

by that logic, you should be upset if NCSU is not ranked in front of duke tomorrow.

Rudy
01-13-2013, 05:33 PM
Since Louisville's loss was to a team (Duke) better than anyone else's loss, its

1. Louisville
2. Michigan
3. Indiana
4. Duke

howardlander
01-13-2013, 05:54 PM
Since Louisville's loss was to a team (Duke) better than anyone else's loss, its

1. Louisville
2. Michigan
3. Indiana
4. Duke

Why would Michigan be ranked above Duke?

1. Louisville
2. Indiana
3. Duke
4. Michigan

Howard

toooskies
01-13-2013, 06:39 PM
Why would Michigan be ranked above Duke?

Because they lost to a higher ranked team by a smaller margin?

Duvall
01-13-2013, 06:59 PM
Because they lost to a higher ranked team by a smaller margin?

That's putting a lot of weight on the desperation three by Michigan after the game was decided. What about the rest of the season?

DBFAN
01-13-2013, 07:08 PM
we beat them at full strength and they were missing a major piece

by that logic, you should be upset if NCSU is not ranked in front of duke tomorrow.

No that would make no sense given the current structure, and a little more complicated to simplify it that way. What I am getting at is that dropping Duke 3 to 4 spots for their first loss against a good team ( was trying to compare how close in ranking State was with OSU) and the fact that we beat beat OSU, in now way should allow Michigan to be ranked ahead of us, since they lost as well. Why would we be more sympathetic to Michigan who has beaten only one top 25 team in State, on their own floor. Duke has the exact same conflict with beating OSU as Mich has with beating NCSU, but the biggest difference is that Duke is 3-1 against (4-1 if you count UK) so how is it possible that they should or would be ranked ahead of us. I have no prob with Louisville being ranked number 1, but we didn't exactly struggle with them when they were down there best player. Whose to say we would not do well if they did have him.

jay
01-13-2013, 08:38 PM
I would be really if the rankings don't come out approximately this way. Most of you are overlooking Kansas here.

Polls Tomorrow:

1. Louisville - They beat Kentucky and haven't lost since some team named Duke beat them in November. I don't agree with them being this high, but that's the perception, and that's all the polls are about.
2. Indiana - Impressive win against Minnesota, and they've been pretty solid since they lost in OT against Butler.
3. Kansas - Haven't lost since their second game of the season. Withey is making his case for POY.
4. Duke - Lost on NC State's home court with one of our double-figure starters out of the game. Game was winnable.
5. Michigan - Got trounced by Ohio St. for most of the game, but has been demolishing most opponents
6. Arizona - Has been several buzzer beaters (and questionable calls) away from going down and finally bit it against Oregon

Edouble
01-13-2013, 08:47 PM
I would be really if the rankings don't come out approximately this way. Most of you are overlooking Kansas here.

Polls Tomorrow:

1. Louisville - They beat Kentucky and haven't lost since some team named Duke beat them in November. I don't agree with them being this high, but that's the perception, and that's all the polls are about.
2. Indiana - Impressive win against Minnesota, and they've been pretty solid since they lost in OT against Butler.
3. Kansas - Haven't lost since their second game of the season. Withey is making his case for POY.
4. Duke - Lost on NC State's home court with one of our double-figure starters out of the game. Game was winnable.
5. Michigan - Got trounced by Ohio St. for most of the game, but has been demolishing most opponents
6. Arizona - Has been several buzzer beaters (and questionable calls) away from going down and finally bit it against Oregon

This is pretty clearly what the polls will look like. It is laughable to suggest that Duke could somehow stay #1, as is suggested on the front page. I love J & B, but sometimes they come up with some stuff that makes me like, "Whaaaaaa?!?!".

Native
01-13-2013, 09:44 PM
We'll be 3 or 4 IMO, depending on whether or not voters think our loss to #20 NCSU without Kelly was worse than Michigan's loss to #15 OSU at full strength (UM is at full strength, right?)

jay
01-13-2013, 10:00 PM
We'll be 3 or 4 IMO, depending on whether or not voters think our loss to #20 NCSU without Kelly was worse than Michigan's loss to #15 OSU at full strength (UM is at full strength, right?)

But that's not how pollsters and coaches make their decisions about ratings. It's all about who is the "hottest" team/who has won the most in a row and other largely meaningless things like that. For the most part, they don't pay much attention to the minutiae like injuries and what not.

I honestly don't see a scenario where Duke is higher than #4 tomorrow.

jipops
01-13-2013, 10:16 PM
I'm far more concerned about what kind of team we will putting on the floor instead of what number some pollsters put beside our team's name. Rank us number 20 for all I care.

Get healthy and get to the tournament, oh yea... And get healthy.

91devil
01-13-2013, 10:20 PM
I think we'll probably be third in the polls. Louisville and Indiana have been playing pretty well recently and deserve to move up. I can't see us dropping below Kansas, who, despite being on a long winning streak, hasn't looked great recently, or Michigan, who looked terrible today versus Ohio State. We played well against the Wolfpack in our loss.

We might even get a first place vote in either poll. In the coaches poll (thirty-one voters) I ancipate Louisville getting about twenty-five first place votes with Indiana getting the balance.

DBFAN
01-13-2013, 11:07 PM
@crazietalker: RT @GaryParrishCBS: Duke remains No. 1 in the updated Top 25 (and one) -- http://t.co/o3Fsq3vC

DBFAN
01-13-2013, 11:29 PM
I know it's not the AP or Coaches but at least CBS likes us

Duvall
01-14-2013, 12:34 AM
I know it's not the AP or Coaches but at least CBS likes us

CBSsports.com doesn't like us all that much. Gregg Doyel is their lead columnist for college sports!

In any case, I think this is the ballot that Jeff Goodman will file for the actual AP poll tomorrow.

moonpie23
01-14-2013, 07:28 AM
ranking is fun, but not essential......Duke will play the players they have and the chips will fall where they may....

personally, i think the #1 is a huge target.....If we take care of business, it doesn't matter what our "rank" is...

UrinalCake
01-14-2013, 09:27 AM
For the most part, they don't pay much attention to the minutiae like injuries and what not.

But weren't the pundits saying that our win over Louisville shouldn't "count" since they didn't have their center for that game?

Jarhead
01-14-2013, 10:13 AM
But weren't the pundits saying that our win over Louisville shouldn't "count" since they didn't have their center for that game?

Well, I personally don't count our game vs State as a loss since we didn't have Ryan for that game.

Wander
01-14-2013, 10:29 AM
Parrish and Goodman are the best in the business. I've always thought the best way to rank teams, at least after the first few weeks of the season when we get enough data points, is to pretend the NCAA tournament started tomorrow and rank by the S-curve. In other words, just blindly look at each team's complete resume. One can make a good case for Louisville, but the head-to-head result should be the tiebreaker in Duke's favor.

CDu
01-14-2013, 11:00 AM
Well, I personally don't count our game vs State as a loss since we didn't have Ryan for that game.

Depends on how you want to do rankings.

When we beat Louisville, we were at full strength and they were not. Now, they are at full strength and we are not. It seems reasonable to assume that they'd win if we played today. Therefore, if you voted us #1 (or ahead of Louisville) after beating Louisville, it is reasonable to vote Louisville #1 (or ahead of us) today.

Further, it is unclear whether or not Kelly will return this year. Conversely, we know Dieng has returned. Therefore, it's reasonable to vote Louisville #1 given the uncertainty of Kelly's foot.

Basically, the only justifiable reason to vote Duke ahead of Louisville is if you choose to ignore that Dieng was out against us and count that loss but then consider that Kelly was out against State and discount that loss. In other words, if you use any consistent and reasonable logic, Louisville should probably be ahead of us right now.

Of course, as stated above, it really doesn't matter.

JasonEvans
01-14-2013, 11:15 AM
Are the voters supposed to be ranking the teams RIGHT NOW or over the course of the season?

I ask because RIGHT NOW Duke is without Ryan Kelly and perhaps also without Seth Curry. I think a very compelling argument can be made that we barely deserve to be a top ten team.

That said, I expect us to be #3 or #4 this week... not that it really matters.

--Jason "for now, all I care about is maintaining our absurd, ridiculous, streak of Top Tens" Evans

UrinalCake
01-14-2013, 11:55 AM
Basically, the only justifiable reason to vote Duke ahead of Louisville is if you choose to ignore that Dieng was out against us and count that loss but then consider that Kelly was out against State and discount that loss..

Not necessarily... you would vote for us over Louisville if

- you don't consider injuries at all, for either team, and also look at the season as a whole rather than giving higher weight to recent games. In that case, both teams have one loss but we beat them head to head so we'd be ranked higher. (I don't know anyone who ranks teams this way).
- you believe that Ryan will return, thus this loss doesn't count as much, and our superior strength of schedule overall puts us above Louisville.
- you've watched the teams play and feel that if Duke is more likely to go far in the tourney if it were to start today.
- you believe that Duke's legacy counts for something (how else to explain UNC receiving votes last week?)

Shaky arguments, I know

Wander
01-14-2013, 12:15 PM
Basically, the only justifiable reason to vote Duke ahead of Louisville is if you choose to ignore that Dieng was out against us and count that loss but then consider that Kelly was out against State and discount that loss. In other words, if you use any consistent and reasonable logic, Louisville should probably be ahead of us right now.


My opinion has always been that injuries should be completely ignored when ranking teams, selecting teams for the tournament, or seeding teams from the tournament. I know this isn't a popular opinion in college basketball, but:

1. Every other sport I can think of follows the same rule.
2. It's way too hard to follow all the injuries on all the teams. Dieng and Kelly are well-known to basketball fans, but what about Curry's or Marshall's? I mean, how many of us know the complete injury situation for ANY other school, let alone the 68 that make the tournament? When the selection committee is seeding the teams, do they know all the injuries that Mississippi Valley State went through over the season? That could be the difference between a 15 seed vs a 16 seed, or a play-in game vs not.
3. Some programs/coaches publicize injuries more than others, and it seems weird to me to effectively allow this to be a factor.
4. Part of being a good team is being able to deal with injuries. By counting losses with injured players less than healthy losses, you're effectively punishing teams with depth.

Based on this premise, I'd say Duke and Louisville have similar resumes, but the head-to-head result breaks the tie in Duke's favor. I agree that for those who want to take injuries into account, it is reasonable to have Louisville over Duke.

CDu
01-14-2013, 12:34 PM
Not necessarily... you would vote for us over Louisville if

- you don't consider injuries at all, for either team, and also look at the season as a whole rather than giving higher weight to recent games. In that case, both teams have one loss but we beat them head to head so we'd be ranked higher. (I don't know anyone who ranks teams this way).
- you believe that Ryan will return, thus this loss doesn't count as much, and our superior strength of schedule overall puts us above Louisville.
- you've watched the teams play and feel that if Duke is more likely to go far in the tourney if it were to start today.
- you believe that Duke's legacy counts for something (how else to explain UNC receiving votes last week?)

Shaky arguments, I know


My opinion has always been that injuries should be completely ignored when ranking teams, selecting teams for the tournament, or seeding teams from the tournament. I know this isn't a popular opinion in college basketball, but:

1. Every other sport I can think of follows the same rule.
2. It's way too hard to follow all the injuries on all the teams. Dieng and Kelly are well-known to basketball fans, but what about Curry's or Marshall's? I mean, how many of us know the complete injury situation for ANY other school, let alone the 68 that make the tournament? When the selection committee is seeding the teams, do they know all the injuries that Mississippi Valley State went through over the season? That could be the difference between a 15 seed vs a 16 seed, or a play-in game vs not.
3. Some programs/coaches publicize injuries more than others, and it seems weird to me to effectively allow this to be a factor.
4. Part of being a good team is being able to deal with injuries. By counting losses with injured players less than healthy losses, you're effectively punishing teams with depth.

Based on this premise, I'd say Duke and Louisville have similar resumes, but the head-to-head result breaks the tie in Duke's favor. I agree that for those who want to take injuries into account, it is reasonable to have Louisville over Duke.

Fair enough on both counts. As I don't really care about weekly rankings, I'm fine with folks thinking we should be ahead of Louisville. Ultimately, it'll just matter what happens in March/April anyway, and both teams are likely to be high (#1 or #2) seeds in the tourney.

DBFAN
01-14-2013, 12:45 PM
#3

Which is fine because Mich stays behind us

socaldukie
01-14-2013, 12:46 PM
Louisville
Indiana
Duke
Kansas
Michigan

jlear
01-14-2013, 12:58 PM
Louisville
Indiana
Duke
Kansas
Michigan

USA Today top 5 same as AP

DBFAN
01-14-2013, 01:11 PM
Just read that Duke also got 14 first place votes behind Louisvilles 36. Not to bad after losing ur first game

CameronBornAndBred
01-14-2013, 01:32 PM
Interesting polls. Duke is 3rd, with more #1 votes than 2nd place Indiana. All top 5 teams got #1 votes.
UNC didn't get squat. Again. :)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

TruBlu
01-14-2013, 05:52 PM
The new No 1 team, Louisville is playing at U-Conn tonight. I usually pull against any team ranked above my Devils, but I just don't know if I can do that tonight. Should be a good game though.

johnb
01-14-2013, 06:08 PM
ESPN had a face-off over which of 4 teams should be ranked number one. Dana O'Neil drew Duke and came up with this:

"Let’s preface this right off the top by saying this won’t happen. When the No. 1 team loses, it is never No. 1 in the next poll. So Duke could have lost to the 1980s Celtics or Lakers on a triple-overtime buzzer-beater in the dark, and the Blue Devils still would fall off the top perch.... If you simply used that handy NCAA tournament tool, the blind résumé, here’s what you’d see about the Blue Devils:

RPI ranking: first. Strength of schedule: first. Record against top 25 in RPI: 2-1. Record against top 50: 5-1. Record against top 100: 8-1."

Not to mention record against top 1 in AP: 1-0.

-bdbd
01-14-2013, 07:16 PM
A pleasant surprise today, to still be ranked in the top 3. But, as has been said before on here, it really doesn't matter much until March...

...with the exception of Kerlina. Them being out of the top 25 is VERY important (at least to us ABC'ers!)... :p

cptnflash
01-14-2013, 07:48 PM
UConn up 6 at the half, Louisville's reign at #1 might be very short lived. It's tough for me to root for the Huskies, although I have to admit they're not nearly as dislikable without Calhoun. I think I can manage it for 20 more minutes.

DukieInBrasil
01-14-2013, 09:33 PM
ESPN had a face-off over which of 4 teams should be ranked number one. Dana O'Neil drew Duke and came up with this:

"Let’s preface this right off the top by saying this won’t happen. When the No. 1 team loses, it is never No. 1 in the next poll. So Duke could have lost to the 1980s Celtics or Lakers on a triple-overtime buzzer-beater in the dark, and the Blue Devils still would fall off the top perch.... If you simply used that handy NCAA tournament tool, the blind résumé, here’s what you’d see about the Blue Devils:

RPI ranking: first. Strength of schedule: first. Record against top 25 in RPI: 2-1. Record against top 50: 5-1. Record against top 100: 8-1."

Not to mention record against top 1 in AP: 1-0.

That's not true. Duke went the whole season ranked #1 in 1992 and lost a couple of times, meaning that not only once, but twice, they lost games that year and stayed #1. He was probably just trying to be emphatic saying it that way, but it's not true.
The geek stats all indicate that Duke should be ranked #1 now, but unlike in 1992, they did not come into the season being thought of as the best team, so voters are quick to dismiss the evidence before their eyes.
Kelly's injury could also be a factor.
But the final stat you offer up ought to be the deciding factor.

UrinalCake
01-14-2013, 09:43 PM
My opinion has always been that injuries should be completely ignored when ranking teams, selecting teams for the tournament, or seeding teams from the tournament.

I kind of agree with this, especially in cases where someone gets injured right before the NCAA tournament (Kenyon Martin comes to mind). The Selection Committee has absolutely no idea how good the team is without that player. When they penalize a team simply based on the assumption that they're not as good (bumping Cincinnati to a #2 seed even though they were clearly deserving of a #1 and perhaps the #1 overall based on their record) they are just inventing data.

On the other hand, when a player gets injured and the team does play some games afterwards and proves to be awful, then I do think the earlier wins prior to the injury should be weighed accordingly.



The geek stats all indicate that Duke should be ranked #1 now, but unlike in 1992, they did not come into the season being thought of as the best team, so voters are quick to dismiss the evidence before their eyes.

I think that's an important factor - the pollsters seem to remember their preseason rankings and weigh teams according to those, as if they refuse to admit that they were wrong about a team.

cptnflash
01-14-2013, 09:47 PM
UConn up 6 at the half, Louisville's reign at #1 might be very short lived. It's tough for me to root for the Huskies, although I have to admit they're not nearly as dislikable without Calhoun. I think I can manage it for 20 more minutes.

Well, so much for that. That's the last time I place any faith in UConn to help us out.

tommy
01-14-2013, 11:15 PM
I hope I'm not jinxing us or anything, but I'm not going to be surprised if we end up the season ranked #1, even if Ryan doesn't play anymore. We just played what was expected to be the toughest remaining game on our schedule, at NC State, and it was the very first game we had to try to figure out what we're going to do without Ryan. It was a tense and taut game that went down to the last couple of minutes, and we didn't have Curry in the last 3 minutes to help try to pull it out. The team played quite well under the circumstances, I thought.

We're not going to have any games more difficult than that one, and it's never again going to be our first game without Ryan. We'll get better with each game, I presume, as the guys learn their new roles. So we'll be getting stronger than we were against State, and the opposition will not be as strong. And we almost beat State! I just don't think we're going to lose very many games given the remaining strength of our team and the nature of our schedule.

And with the other top teams being Louisville, Indiana, and Michigan, I just think those teams, playing in the Big East and Big 10, are going to get beaten at least a few times each in those leagues. Just too tough. Michigan and Indiana have to play, besides each other, a gauntlet of teams including Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illlinois. Many of them twice apiece. Same for Louisville in its league.

I just don't think it's unlikely that we're tripped up less frequently than those other teams. Kansas won't lose often either, so they'll be right there, but I for one and not going to be all that surprised if we're #1 in the polls at the end of the regular season.

JasonEvans
01-15-2013, 11:30 AM
Folks, it is worth noting that Louisville has also played an extremely tough schedule (#12 in RPI, #43 in Pom) and come through it with only on mark... a loss in a close game where they were missing their top inside player, one of the best shot-blockers and rebounders in the country. Think Deng might have had an impact on Mason leading us in scoring that game?

They are a very worthy #1 and I expect them to take care of Syracuse this weekend to cement that ranking.

-Jason "I think it is great that we still got a lot of #1 votes even after a loss... speaks to the respect our early season schedule afforded us" Evans

Newton_14
01-15-2013, 09:35 PM
Are the voters supposed to be ranking the teams RIGHT NOW or over the course of the season?

I ask because RIGHT NOW Duke is without Ryan Kelly and perhaps also without Seth Curry. I think a very compelling argument can be made that we barely deserve to be a top ten team.

That said, I expect us to be #3 or #4 this week... not that it really matters.

--Jason "for now, all I care about is maintaining our absurd, ridiculous, streak of Top Tens" Evans

Agree. We are not a Top 5 team without Ryan. K had another one of his "great wit" moments on the Daily DBR yesterday discussing the team without Ryan. He said we are now a poor guy team. We have to search the paper for discount coupons so we can cut those out an use them. He said we were a Rich Man's team enjoying the perks of such, but that is now out the window and we have to be bargain shoppers!

Dude is just funny. When he decides to hang them up I will miss the wit almost as much as the coaching genius.

-bdbd
01-15-2013, 11:15 PM
To answer the question posed for this string, as of tonight (and the Wisc. win at Indiana) Duke will be NUMBER TWO next week!

:rolleyes:


Just gotta get past GT...

matt1
01-15-2013, 11:26 PM
To answer the question posed for this string, as of tonight (and the Wisc. win at Indiana) Duke will be NUMBER TWO next week!

:rolleyes:


Just gotta get past GT...

If Syracuse can come up big against Louisville on Saturday, we will be #1 again! I am assuming that we beat Tech.