Who plays in place of Kelly (State game through indefinitely)

[JNort]

I have been so upset about Ryan being out that I have forgotten about the rest of the team having t still play without him until I read the front page piece. So who do yall think gets the nod going forward and especially in the State game since it's our biggest threat in the ACC.

Personally for the State game I would like to see Amile get the bulk of the PT so he can guard Leslie with Josh and Alex spelling him. I am not the biggest fan of Hairston but I doubt K will keep his mins down with Kelly out. I really think Alex could come in and play the 4 and still give us better mobility and stretch the defense but I think that will be better suited after this game. Amile I feel is the best suited to slow down or hinder Leslie. Also does Marshall get more PT to spell Mason?

[fitimi1]

Who is this "Washington" referred to on the front page story?

[OldSchool]

Who is this "Washington" referred to on the front page story?

"Washington" is the code name for Patrick Davidson. K, ever the master, anticipated this very scenario before the season and persuaded the NCAA to allow Davidson another year of eligibility. Since he last made an appearance in a Duke uni, Davidson has grown into a 6'11" stretch forward and has been secretly practicing with the team since the beginning of the season.

[loran16]

I have been so upset about Ryan being out that I have forgotten about the rest of the team having t still play without him until I read the front page piece. So who do yall think gets the nod going forward and especially in the State game since it's our biggest threat in the ACC.

Personally for the State game I would like to see Amile get the bulk of the PT so he can guard Leslie with Josh and Alex spelling him. I am not the biggest fan of Hairston but I doubt K will keep his mins down with Kelly out. I really think Alex could come in and play the 4 and still give us better mobility and stretch the defense but I think that will be better suited after this game. Amile I feel is the best suited to slow down or hinder Leslie. Also does Marshall get more PT to spell Mason?

Well Jiggy most likely moves into the starting rotation - remember Amile had been basically cut out of the rotation till last game - so Amile's probably not going to start or take up a major role quickly.

Marshall will get some burn if only because we now have no reserve big guys, but again, he's missed half the season. More likely duke plays Murphy and Amile a tiny tiny amount and Hairston starts taking up 25 minutes per game.

[Kedsy]

Well Jiggy most likely moves into the starting rotation - remember Amile had been basically cut out of the rotation till last game - so Amile's probably not going to start or take up a major role quickly.

Marshall will get some burn if only because we now have no reserve big guys, but again, he's missed half the season. More likely duke plays Murphy and Amile a tiny tiny amount and Hairston starts taking up 25 minutes per game.

Well, I agree the obvious move is to move Josh to the starting unit. But Coach K doesn't always make the obvious move in these situations. Remember 2001? Also, if last season's Ryan injury taught us anything it's that just subbing someone in for such a unique player doesn't always work. Our offense will by necessity be very different without him.

Ultimately, I agree with those who say it depends on how long they think he'll be out. If it's going to be awhile, K can get innovative. Whether he can get innovative in time for this Saturday's game is another issue altogether.

[Boone Devil]

Personally, I think Alex is the best option. He adds the ability to stretch the defense that Amile and Josh really don't offer. Amile and Josh both offer more on the defensive end of the ball than Alex does at this moment, but I think he will only continue to improve as the season goes along.

As far as Marshall is concerned, I think he will need to play an increase role as a sub for Mason. With Ryan out, we give up a lot of size. Alex, Amile, and Josh are all in the 6'7 - 6'8 range, and if Mason gets in foul trouble, I don't see any of those guys being viable options for lots of minute as a 5. Especially against a guy like Alex Lin.

I have full confidence in Alex, Josh, and Amile, but at this point I feel that Alex offers the most upside at the position.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

It sucks to see Kelly out, but honestly I feel like nowadays, you are extremely lucky if you go a full season without someone being out at least for a little while. We're lucky in the sense that it happened now and not 2 months from now. We are also lucky to have a few other options on the bench that can come in and contribute. I think our best bet is Alex Murphy because he can shoot the 3 and is comfortable with the basketball. Being able to play with Mason and Quinn I think would do him well. We'll obviously miss Ryan defensively but that is bound to happen. I am not a huge Hairston fan either. The times I have seen him play, he just hasn't developed enough offensively and fouls too much to warrant a starting position coming into conference play. I'm up for whatever Coach K decides to do but this is a great opportunity for Alex to shine.

[cptnflash]

Almost certainly Josh, at least against NC State. The priority on Saturday will be defense on CJ Leslie. That's assuming Marshall is healthy enough to back up Mason.

[JNort]

Well Jiggy most likely moves into the starting rotation

Marshall will get some burn if only because we now have no reserve big guys, but again, he's missed half the season. More likely duke plays Murphy and Amile a tiny tiny amount and Hairston starts taking up 25 minutes per game.


Well, I agree the obvious move is to move Josh to the starting unit. But Coach K doesn't always make the obvious move in these situations.

What I honestly think will happen is this: Jiggy starts this game with the intention of playing 25mins and his sub will depend on how the game flows. If CJ Leslie is having a good game then I fully expect to see Amile come in however if our offense is sputtering or CJ isn't threatening to go off then I expect more Alex.

The thing with Marshall though is he is strictly a center and he can't be on the court with Mason because it clogs up the inside and this team is all about spacing the floor for Mason and our shooters. Marshall will come in to spell Mason and that's about all I see for him.

K can give you an anxiety attack when it comes to predicting his lineups :eek: for all we know he may just go : Cook, Tyler, Seth, Sheed, Mason. State isn't very big in the front court so it wouldn't hurt too bad. Lol now I did type all that out as a joke but looking at it I could see this happening against State. Would be fun to see offensively anyway.

[Newton_14]

Well, I agree the obvious move is to move Josh to the starting unit. But Coach K doesn't always make the obvious move in these situations. Remember 2001? Also, if last season's Ryan injury taught us anything it's that just subbing someone in for such a unique player doesn't always work. Our offense will by necessity be very different without him.

Ultimately, I agree with those who say it depends on how long they think he'll be out. If it's going to be awhile, K can get innovative. Whether he can get innovative in time for this Saturday's game is another issue altogether.


You got to put 4 shooters around Mason. You just have to. If K goes that route he may go bold and start Murphy at the 4 and try to play faster. Amile and Josh are not shooters but Josh is the better defensive option.

I am half betting that K gets innovative and starts Murph, and half betting he sticks with Josh. I could see it going either way. He did not get innovative last Spring and the result was very bad. I can't see him making the same mistake twice. Yet logic keeps telling me he sticks with Josh. So who knows.

One thing for sure. Everyone clamoring for Alex and Amile to get minutes just got their wish...

[Kedsy]

The priority on Saturday will be defense on CJ Leslie.

The question is who is the best bet to defend Leslie well. I'm not sure it's Josh. It may be, but Leslie is pretty mobile and I'm not sure if Josh can stay with him. Having said that, I'm not sure Amile is strong enough to bang with Leslie. And I'm not sure if Alex's defense is far enough along to avoid missing his rotations. Same with Marshall. No perfect solutions here, obviously.

[jipops]

I wonder if this is the opportunity to speed the game up. Rotating Amile and Alex in place of Ryan could very well do this for us. I really think Josh is best used primarily as a back up for Mason. If he is in there with Mason then the lane becomes clogged with poor spacing as Josh poses no threat on offense. Amile and Alex can at least provide ball movement and some ability to drive. Now with far less ability to spread the floor speeding the game up suits Mason rather well and with Cook we've got a guy who can handle that.

We keep talking about our front court backups but I think one of the biggest opportunities to step up is Rasheed. He's been slumping pretty bad lately. He'll need to take on more of an offensive load and it's a great time for him to break back out.

[JNort]

The question is who is the best bet to defend Leslie well. I'm not sure it's Josh. It may be, but Leslie is pretty mobile and I'm not sure if Josh can stay with him. Having said that, I'm not sure Amile is strong enough to bang with Leslie. And I'm not sure if Alex's defense is far enough along to avoid missing his rotations. Same with Marshall. No perfect solutions here, obviously.

Very true, however everyone seems to be overlooking a very glaring fact. Josh fouls and he fouls frequently so if he starts I doubt he is gonna be in a lot especially since he will be on CJ.

[dukeofcalabash]

1) Short minutes is where Hairston can best help because he cannot play 25 minutes a game against quality competition as he is foul prone and certainly won't score much as he has no shot. It was quite embarassing to hear the Davidson radio announcers laughing at his efforts against their team.
2) Marshall likely to get lots of minutes at center with Mason moving out, probably more like Kentucky did years ago with 2 centers.
3) Murphy will get plenty of opportunity as he can run, he can shoot, and I believe he can play defense.
4) Amile can provide some relief but his body is not ready for lots of time on the court.

[75Crazie]

More likely duke plays Murphy and Amile a tiny tiny amount and Hairston starts taking up 25 minutes per game.
When did they raise the foul limit for a game, and how did they get it raised by that much?

[azzefkram]

I hope it's either Alex or Amile. Josh's D is over-rated in my opinion and his O is basically non-existent. Whatever advantage Josh may have on the defensive end is negated by having to play 4 against 5 on the offensive end.

[MChambers]

Who is this "Washington" referred to on the front page story?

I'm thinking DBR got confused and wrote Washington but meant Jefferson. Or maybe they meant Lincoln. He was a tall dude, right?

[JNort]

1) Short minutes is where Hairston can best help because he cannot play 25 minutes a game against quality competition as he is foul prone and certainly won't score much as he has no shot. It was quite embarassing to hear the Davidson radio announcers laughing at his efforts against their team.
2) Marshall likely to get lots of minutes at center with Mason moving out, probably more like Kentucky did years ago with 2 centers.
3) Murphy will get plenty of opportunity as he can run, he can shoot, and I believe he can play defense.
4) Amile can provide some relief but his body is not ready for lots of time on the court.

Highly disagree here. To do this we would be changing our entire offense in less than 5 days! This team is designed around spreading the floor with Mason in the middle and Cook running point. Our offense bases itself around 3 main options almost every play:

1. Mason post up- If he has position and isn't doubled he shoots, he gets doubled he passes to an open shooter, no position he gets back to Quinn to set up a new play

2. Pick and Roll with Mason and Quinn- a Mason shot or a Quinn shot

3. Dribble drive with Quinn- Quinn shot or a kick out to an open man when help rotates.


If we play Marshall and Mason at the same time it really restricts all that. The lane clogs more making it harder for Quinn to drive, easier help defense on Mason or Marshall, and defenders don't have to leave the shooters.

[ChrisP]

Two words: Todd Zafirovski

You gotta admit - it would catch the Wolfies by surprise :cool: Just sayin...

[JNort]

Two words: Todd Zafirovski

You gotta admit - it would catch the Wolfies by surprise :cool: Just sayin...

Lets save that for a game in Cameron against a highly inferior opponent. Maybe Feb 13th :cool:

[Kedsy]

You got to put 4 shooters around Mason.

Well, that might be OK if Alex is the fourth shooter, but I'm not convinced his outside shot is all that good yet. And if it's not Alex (or if it is but he only plays 15 or 20 minutes) then against NC State, there'll be a fair amount of time where we'd be going against Brown (6'5), Wood (6'6), Warren (6'8), and Leslie (6'9) with Tyler (6'1), Seth (generously listed at 6'2), Quinn (even more generously listed at 6'1), and Rasheed (6'4). I don't think we can effectively defend that way, so I'm not sure we can expect to put four shooters on the floor for most of the game. Although having said that, we might be able to use a very small, very quick lineup for short periods to trap and/or press and run. I don't think it makes sense to do that for long periods, however.

Assuming Coach K decides to change things up (which he may not, especially for the State game with only a couple days of practice between now and then), I'm thinking we may have to employ a second inside player (whether it's Josh, Amile, or Marshall), set him up on the weak side low block, perhaps a bit higher than that so their defender can't easily help on Mason, and then let Quinn and Rasheed attack the lane repeatedly. Amile certainly and Marshall possibly can take advantage if their defender leaves to help. I'm not sure about Josh. None of them will be nearly as effective an offensive threat as Ryan, but we already knew that, right? The key is being in a position to punish the opponent for doubling Mason.

[davekay1971]

I'll go at this from a defensive mindset and say Josh with Amile playing heavy support minutes. Josh has shown his value in defense/rebounding. Amile is an active, long, athletic guy who's game is more natural for the 4 at this point. We'll lose a LOT of offense this way, but have pretty solid defense/rebounding. To me, Alex hasn't yet shown that he can remotely replace RK's offense (although he's been getting better), and he's not as good at defending the 4 or rebounding as is Hairston or Amile. Alex will get more minutes with RK out anyway, but at the 3 backing up Sheed.

So, basically, my lineup would look like:

1: Cook, backed up by Thornton
2: Curry, backed up by Thornton, Sulaimon
3: Sulaimon, backed up by Murphy
4: Hairston, backed up by Jefferson
5: M. Plumlee, backed up by M. Plumlee (I'll be mysterious and let you guess which M. Plumlee will be starting and which one will be subbing)

Admittedly, my focus in this lineup is more in defense/rebounding, since Alex can certainly stretch a defense better than Hairston or Jefferson...but I feel like Murphy gives up more defending and rebounding the 4 than do either of those two.

[davekay1971]

Well, that might be OK if Alex is the fourth shooter, but I'm not convinced his outside shot is all that good yet. And if it's not Alex (or if it is but he only plays 15 or 20 minutes) then against NC State, there'll be a fair amount of time where we'd be going against Brown (6'5), Wood (6'6), Warren (6'8), and Leslie (6'9) with Tyler (6'1), Seth (generously listed at 6'2), Quinn (even more generously listed at 6'1), and Rasheed (6'4). I don't think we can effectively defend that way, so I'm not sure we can expect to put four shooters on the floor for most of the game. Although having said that, we might be able to use a very small, very quick lineup for short periods to trap and/or press and run. I don't think it makes sense to do that for long periods, however.

Assuming Coach K decides to change things up (which he may not, especially for the State game with only a couple days of practice between now and then), I'm thinking we may have to employ a second inside player (whether it's Josh, Amile, or Marshall), set him up on the weak side low block, perhaps a bit higher than that so their defender can't easily help on Mason, and then let Quinn and Rasheed attack the lane repeatedly. Amile certainly and Marshall possibly can take advantage if their defender leaves to help. I'm not sure about Josh. None of them will be nearly as effective an offensive threat as Ryan, but we already knew that, right? The key is being in a position to punish the opponent for doubling Mason.

Great points, and I'd also suggest we don't really need 4 shooters around Plum. I'd go back to 2010, when we had 3 shooters, one great defender/rebounder at the 4, and a great defender/rebounder at the 5. Plumlee is a good defender, great rebounder, and gives us good offense at the 4. If Hairston/Jefferson can combine for a reasonable facsimile of Lance's role on the 2010 team, we've still got plenty of scorers at the perimeter between Quinn, Curry, and Sulaimon...with Alex and Tyler providing good support on the perimeter. I'm not suggesting a Quinn/Seth/Sheed circa 2013 backcourt is equivalent to Nolan/Jon/Kyle circa 2010...but the general concept is that 3 scorers on the perimeter is sufficient providing your 4 works his butt off on defense/rebounding.

[JNort]

Great points, and I'd also suggest we don't really need 4 shooters around Plum. I'd go back to 2010, when we had 3 shooters, one great defender/rebounder at the 4, and a great defender/rebounder at the 5. Plumlee is a good defender, great rebounder, and gives us good offense at the 4. If Hairston/Jefferson can combine for a reasonable facsimile of Lance's role on the 2010 team, we've still got plenty of scorers at the perimeter between Quinn, Curry, and Sulaimon...with Alex and Tyler providing good support on the perimeter. I'm not suggesting a Quinn/Seth/Sheed circa 2013 backcourt is equivalent to Nolan/Jon/Kyle circa 2010...but the general concept is that 3 scorers on the perimeter is sufficient providing your 4 works his butt off on defense/rebounding.

These teams play a different type of offense though so they are not very comparable. As I posted above we rely on Mason and Cook running the offense where the 2010 team relied on the 3 perimeter guys. That team didn't have an inside scoring presence and this one does. Makes a world of difference

[licc85]

Hate to keep banging this drum, but I doubt that Josh is the starter. The guy can't even play 12 minutes without fouling out. No way he stays on the court for 25 minutes. Coach K usually puts the best 5 players he has out there, so i'm guessing it will be Tyler.

The question is, who gets Ryan's minutes? Probably a mix of Josh, Amile, and Alex. I'd like to see Marshall get more minutes, but for whatever reason at this point, Coach just hasn't been able to fit him in the lineup. Could be because of the spacing issues mentioned by others here. He's a natural back up for Mason, and doesn't fit into Ryan's role on the team, so that could be why. Then again, he's vastly superior in almost every way to Josh, so I'm still confused as to why he doesn't get more run. Maybe he's still hurt. I dunno.

[JNort]

Hate to keep banging this drum, but I doubt that Josh is the starter. The guy can't even play 12 minutes without fouling out. No way he stays on the court for 25 minutes. Coach K usually puts the best 5 players he has out there, so i'm guessing it will be Tyler.

The question is, who gets Ryan's minutes? Probably a mix of Josh, Amile, and Alex. I'd like to see Marshall get more minutes, but for whatever reason at this point, Coach just hasn't been able to fit him in the lineup. Could be because of the spacing issues mentioned by others here. He's a natural back up for Mason, and doesn't fit into Ryan's role on the team, so that could be why. Then again, he's vastly superior in almost every way to Josh, so I'm still confused as to why he doesn't get more run. Maybe he's still hurt. I dunno.

Yes but you are overlooking K's loyalty to experience and hustle which only Tyler can seemingly match.

[Newton_14]

My point about 4 shooters around Mason was about Mason. He is much more effective on offense if there are 4 shooters to space the floor. I obviously realize we can't do that unless Alex can play effectively at the 4. I was just spitting out thoughts there...

I suspect K is going to start Josh, and use Amile and Alex to back him up. Josh will play as many minutes as he can handle. I know he does not have many fans on this board, but K plays the guy for a reason. If he was as terrible as many here suggest do you really think K would be playing him as much as he does? K is not stupid. With the team as it was prior to Ryan's injury, Josh was playing his role very effectively and helping the team which is the exact reason K was playing him

However, he may not be as effective if he has to play 25+ mpg. Which is why I think K will do something a little different here besides just "plugging" Josh into Ryan's starting spot and playing him Ryan's normal minutes. K is most likely at a minimum going to platoon the threesome of Josh, Amile, and Alex, and stick with whichever one of them is most effective game over game. K often subs by feel based on how the game is going and how effective certain guys are in each game. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I just hope Ryan does not miss more than 2 to 3 weeks.

On another note, Alex getting the first half burn he got last night, tells me he must be practicing well recently and earned the first half PT. He looked pretty good out there too. Maybe the extended time he will get here will get him going and give us another offensive weapon.

[licc85]

Great points, and I'd also suggest we don't really need 4 shooters around Plum. I'd go back to 2010, when we had 3 shooters, one great defender/rebounder at the 4, and a great defender/rebounder at the 5. Plumlee is a good defender, great rebounder, and gives us good offense at the 4. If Hairston/Jefferson can combine for a reasonable facsimile of Lance's role on the 2010 team, we've still got plenty of scorers at the perimeter between Quinn, Curry, and Sulaimon...with Alex and Tyler providing good support on the perimeter. I'm not suggesting a Quinn/Seth/Sheed circa 2013 backcourt is equivalent to Nolan/Jon/Kyle circa 2010...but the general concept is that 3 scorers on the perimeter is sufficient providing your 4 works his butt off on defense/rebounding.

I like your reasoning here, but the 2010 team was just too different in terms of style for an accurate comparison. There's nobody on this team capable of the type of defense the Lance provided from that position, at least not currently. I'm hoping Amile can make some big improvements and fill that role, but Lance was also able to hit a jump shot out to 15 feet reasonably consistently, which is something I'm not sure any of our front court players can do. Also, the only guy we have who could come even close to Singler's outstanding defense and versatility on offense is out with a foot injury for 2-4 weeks. We're going to have to figure out something else.

Losing Ryan really hurts our offense, and we will have to rely much more heavily on Quinn Cook and Seth Curry to score. Mason is going to be double teamed every time he touches the ball without Ryan to draw bigger defenders out of the paint. Rasheed also needs to break out of this slump if we are going to beat NC State in their house. He's been terrible offensively of late, and he's just got to get going now that we've lost our hottest perimeter shooter. We need to somehow replace Ryan's scoring as well as Mason's decreased offensive efficiency now that Ryan is out, and it's going to have to come from the 3 guards.

The only player who could reasonably impersonate Ryan's versatility is Alex, but I just don't see him being a good enough defender for him to carve out a significant role in the rotation just yet. It's going to be rough sledding without Ryan. He's the 1 guy on the team who just can't be replaced. I would not surprised if we dropped a game or even two while he's out, but it won't matter too much in the long run if he can get back to 100% by March, so hopefully our backups can hold down the fort.

[licc85]

Yes but you are overlooking K's loyalty to experience and hustle which only Tyler can seemingly match.

That's exactly what I said . . . but Tyler is already playing starter's minutes basically, so I postulated that the rest of Ryan's minutes will be split up between a combo of Josh, Amile, and Alex, but what I posted was that Tyler is guy who should be getting the start.

[jv001]

We have been less than stellar in rebounding the basketball as a team and without Ryan we will really be at a disadvantage. If we start 4 guards around Mason, we will be at an even bigger disadvantage. Then you throw in the fact that Seth is not 100% and needs extra rest and the 4 guard lineup really looks bad. I look for Josh to get the start and a steady subsitution of Alex and Amile. With a little Marshall thrown in to give Mason a rest. Maybe this will be the game that Josh hits some of those open jumpers. One thing for sure, we'll need to make free throws. This is going to be an interesting game to say the least. Get well fast Ryan & GoDuke!

[JNort]

My point about 4 shooters around Mason was about Mason. He is much more effective on offense if there are 4 shooters to space the floor. I obviously realize we can't do that unless Alex can play effectively at the 4. I was just spitting out thoughts there...

I suspect K is going to start Josh, and use Amile and Alex to back him up. Josh will play as many minutes as he can handle. I know he does not have many fans on this board, but K plays the guy for a reason. If he was as terrible as many here suggest do you really think K would be playing him as much as he does? K is not stupid. With the team as it was prior to Ryan's injury, Josh was playing his role very effectively and helping the team which is the exact reason K was playing him

However, he may not be as effective if he has to play 25+ mpg. Which is why I think K will do something a little different here besides just "plugging" Josh into Ryan's starting spot and playing him Ryan's normal minutes. K is most likely at a minimum going to platoon the threesome of Josh, Amile, and Alex, and stick with whichever one of them is most effective game over game. K often subs by feel based on how the game is going and how effective certain guys are in each game. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I just hope Ryan does not miss more than 2 to 3 weeks.

On another note, Alex getting the first half burn he got last night, tells me he must be practicing well recently and earned the first half PT. He looked pretty good out there too. Maybe the extended time he will get here will get him going and give us another offensive weapon.

Actually yes I think he would. He values Josh not for his basketball skills but his hustle, toughness and work ethic. For example (a bad one most likely) When 2 of my cousins play ball at the gym they would rather have me than the really talented guy because I wont shoot but maybe once sometimes twice a game because I know they are the better option on offense and I just wanna win. I run around set screens, foul people, and not make mistakes and let the better guys on the team lead us to a win.

Josh is much in the same mold as in he will foul people, set screens, get back on defense, minimize his shooting and not make mistakes. K wants him out there cause he won't be the reason we lose. Alex and Amile still miss assignments and are more willing to take shots but have higher potential. He would rather them set and learn in practice first till they gotten far enough along to know their role. Ever notice the Alex looks at the bench after every shot to see if he made the right decision?

[JNort]

That's exactly what I said . . . but Tyler is already playing starter's minutes basically, so I postulated that the rest of Ryan's minutes will be split up between a combo of Josh, Amile, and Alex, but what I posted was that Tyler is guy who should be getting the start.

Where would you start Tyler though and who would sit?

[Big Pappa]

Highly disagree here. To do this we would be changing our entire offense in less than 5 days! This team is designed around spreading the floor with Mason in the middle and Cook running point. Our offense bases itself around 3 main options almost every play:

1. Mason post up- If he has position and isn't doubled he shoots, he gets doubled he passes to an open shooter, no position he gets back to Quinn to set up a new play

2. Pick and Roll with Mason and Quinn- a Mason shot or a Quinn shot

3. Dribble drive with Quinn- Quinn shot or a kick out to an open man when help rotates.


If we play Marshall and Mason at the same time it really restricts all that. The lane clogs more making it harder for Quinn to drive, easier help defense on Mason or Marshall, and defenders don't have to leave the shooters.

No mention of our offense through Seth? We run the baseline double screen action for him at least 10 times a game.

[Kedsy]

Hate to keep banging this drum, but I doubt that Josh is the starter. The guy can't even play 12 minutes without fouling out. No way he stays on the court for 25 minutes.

While it's true Josh averages 8.1 fouls per 40 minutes this season, mathematically that means he could stay on the floor for 24.7 minutes before he gets his fifth foul. Assuming he hits his average exactly, of course. That's' pretty close to 25 minutes, so I'm not sure you're right on this.


Coach K usually puts the best 5 players he has out there, so i'm guessing it will be Tyler.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, playing Quinn, Seth, Tyler, and Rasheed against Brown, Wood, Warren, and Leslie would be giving up 4, 4, 7, and 5 inches at the four non-center positions. That's a lot of mismatches, so I'd be pretty surprised if we played that lineup for more than a few minutes.


Then again, he's vastly superior in almost every way to Josh, so I'm still confused as to why he doesn't get more run. Maybe he's still hurt. I dunno.

Marshall certainly has more upside than Josh (or at least I think he does), but he's only played ten (10) minutes in his Duke career. Do we really have sufficient information to say he's "vastly superior" to Josh in any way, other than height? I don't think so.

[JNort]

No mention of our offense through Seth? We run the baseline double screen action for him at least 10 times a game.

Well that's why I said 3 main options we got more than 3 but those seem to come up every trip or every other trip down the court.

[JNort]

While it's true Josh averages 8.1 fouls per 40 minutes this season, mathematically that means he could stay on the floor for 24.7 minutes before he gets his fifth foul. Assuming he hits his average exactly, of course. That's' pretty close to 25 minutes, so I'm not sure you're right on this.




Well he would be guarding Leslie who can draw some fouls... More so than anyone else that Josh would guard this season

[Big Pappa]

Well that's why I said 3 main options we got more than 3 but those seem to come up every trip or every other trip down the court.

We easily run that double screen for Seth more than Quinn drives and kicks. I think it's fairly clear from looking at shot selection and just watching how much action we run for Seth that he is one of our first three options.

As for the topic of the thread, I agree with those who are saying that Josh is going to start. I also think that, primarily because of the minutes we saw him get last night, that Alex will end up with more burn than Josh or Amile. It seemed from last night, as others have suggested, that Alex has earned more PT in practice and I see that only increasing with R Kelly's absence.

[dukelifer]

Well, that might be OK if Alex is the fourth shooter, but I'm not convinced his outside shot is all that good yet. And if it's not Alex (or if it is but he only plays 15 or 20 minutes) then against NC State, there'll be a fair amount of time where we'd be going against Brown (6'5), Wood (6'6), Warren (6'8), and Leslie (6'9) with Tyler (6'1), Seth (generously listed at 6'2), Quinn (even more generously listed at 6'1), and Rasheed (6'4). I don't think we can effectively defend that way, so I'm not sure we can expect to put four shooters on the floor for most of the game. Although having said that, we might be able to use a very small, very quick lineup for short periods to trap and/or press and run. I don't think it makes sense to do that for long periods, however.

Assuming Coach K decides to change things up (which he may not, especially for the State game with only a couple days of practice between now and then), I'm thinking we may have to employ a second inside player (whether it's Josh, Amile, or Marshall), set him up on the weak side low block, perhaps a bit higher than that so their defender can't easily help on Mason, and then let Quinn and Rasheed attack the lane repeatedly. Amile certainly and Marshall possibly can take advantage if their defender leaves to help. I'm not sure about Josh. None of them will be nearly as effective an offensive threat as Ryan, but we already knew that, right? The key is being in a position to punish the opponent for doubling Mason.

It will be interesting to see how the State game plays out. If State hits Duke in the mouth as they did last year- K may use the game to experiment. This was going to a tough game regardless. State is a tough match up for Duke in my opinion. I agree that Quinn and Rasheed need to attack. I think Amile might be the best option at this point although I think Murphy is gaining confidence. Amile is a better scorer around the hoop. This will be a team effort- Amile, Alex and Josh will all be asked to contribute in some way. I see Quinn's play as critical. There will be moments when State will have have a big run and somebody will need to be the steadying influence. Ryan did that with his shooting. Quinn will need to do that with his ball handling and passing.

[Newton_14]

Actually yes I think he would. He values Josh not for his basketball skills but his hustle, toughness and work ethic. For example (a bad one most likely) When 2 of my cousins play ball at the gym they would rather have me than the really talented guy because I wont shoot but maybe once sometimes twice a game because I know they are the better option on offense and I just wanna win. I run around set screens, foul people, and not make mistakes and let the better guys on the team lead us to a win.

Josh is much in the same mold as in he will foul people, set screens, get back on defense, minimize his shooting and not make mistakes. K wants him out there cause he won't be the reason we lose. Alex and Amile still miss assignments and are more willing to take shots but have higher potential. He would rather them set and learn in practice first till they gotten far enough along to know their role. Ever notice the Alex looks at the bench after every shot to see if he made the right decision?

Yes and it's normal. Over the years almost every underclassmen bench player does that. It's not unusual. Ryan and Mason did the same thing often when they were Fr/Soph.

I do disagree strongly on why K plays Tyler and Josh (others have suggested Tyler only plays because he hustles). K plays those two because they are effective and have a positive impact on the game. Billy Dat had a great post earlier today in another thread on Josh. Knowing Duke's defensive scheme's and rotations is a huge deal with K. Most young guys that do not play, sit because they have not learned those scheme's and rotations effectively enough to defend properly in games. Tyler came out of the womb seemingly with them mastered. It took Josh longer but he is there now. He does not necessarily look pretty doing it, but he is effective. I was at the Wake and Clemson games and watched the off the ball stuff with Josh intently. Josh was much more effective defending in both games than Amile was, due to positioning and his body. Much better screen setter than Amile is too due to size. He has the size and strength to bang with ACC level post players. Amile does not yet. And like I said, I am a huge Amile fan and I think he is going to be an outstanding player when he gains strength and experience. I still think Alex is going to be a good player as well. Watching these past two games in person made me realize how much easier it is to see how effective Josh is in person verses watching the games on TV.


There have been lots of players over the years who showed great hustle, toughness, and work ethic, that did not play rotation minutes because they were not good enough. Josh has shown to be good enough. Again, not suggesting in any way that Josh is an All ACC player or anything of the sort. He is just a solid role player. Like you said, K trusts him and knows he is not going to cost Duke a game making mistakes or trying to do something he cant do.

I do hope Amile and Alex can make a jump during this stretch without Ryan, and grow their confidence, while also getting better on defense. Both have higher ceilings than Josh, especially offensively, and both are quicker. Both can help this team down the stretch if that happens, and can possibly steal minutes from Josh when Ryan returns.

Hopefully though we get Ryan back so he can take his own minutes back. That is the best case scenario for this teams chances in March and April.

[Kedsy]

Well that's why I said 3 main options we got more than 3 but those seem to come up every trip or every other trip down the court.

I agree with Big Pappa. Running a baseline screen so Seth can spot up for a three is certainly one of our main options. As is the pick and pop with Ryan (although obviously that one's on hold for awhile).


Josh is much in the same mold as in he will foul people, set screens, get back on defense, minimize his shooting and not make mistakes.

I'm going to disagree with the bolded part. While it's true Josh doesn't take that many shots, it's usually simply because he doesn't have the ball in his hands that much. I'm not trying to bash Josh, and I don't have stats to confirm (or deny) this, but my observation over the past two-plus seasons is that while Josh doesn't receive passes that often, he shoots almost every time he gets the ball. I noticed it sometime his freshman year and have made a point of watching it since. Maybe that would change if he plays big minutes, but maybe it wouldn't. Some guys do that because they're not comfortable dribbling or passing and their court vision is such that they don't see their teammates that well. No idea if that's Josh, but it could be.

[dukeballboy88]

K's gona start Cook, Curry, Rasheed, Tyler and Mason. He is going to put Tyler on Leslie and TT is going to foul CJ out. Reminiscent of the time Jimmy V put Corchiani on JR Reid and Corchiani fouled JR out frustrating him the entire game.

[licc85]

While it's true Josh averages 8.1 fouls per 40 minutes this season, mathematically that means he could stay on the floor for 24.7 minutes before he gets his fifth foul. Assuming he hits his average exactly, of course. That's' pretty close to 25 minutes, so I'm not sure you're right on this.



As I mentioned in an earlier post, playing Quinn, Seth, Tyler, and Rasheed against Brown, Wood, Warren, and Leslie would be giving up 4, 4, 7, and 5 inches at the four non-center positions. That's a lot of mismatches, so I'd be pretty surprised if we played that lineup for more than a few minutes.



Marshall certainly has more upside than Josh (or at least I think he does), but he's only played ten (10) minutes in his Duke career. Do we really have sufficient information to say he's "vastly superior" to Josh in any way, other than height? I don't think so.

All great points. I forgot their perimeter guys were so tall. I guess Josh will start . . . but man, our offensive numbers are going to take a dive. I hope Quinn still has some of that magic from last game.

[gumbomoop]

Whether he can get innovative in time for this Saturday's game is another issue altogether.

The parenthetical subtitle of this thread refers to games after this Sat. Fortunately [or perhaps conspiratorially, as in "K controls the ACC, the NCAA, college basketball, and the Trilateral Commission"], in the 10 days after Sat, Duke plays but a single game, at home v. GaTech. Gives K some time to assess positives and negatives coming out of State game, and concoct a plan for indefinitely. Or several.

[sporthenry]

I'm not sure how or why TT would start. For one, that would kill our back court depth since TT is pretty much all they have there. By starting Thornton, you are going to be upsetting that balance in the back court and asking them to play even more. That means putting more time on QC who hasn't played a full college season, Sheed who is actually a freshmen and Curry who is injured. I think the back court is fine. And that doesn't even mention the fact Sheed or TT would have to cover CJ Leslie.

Josh is the obvious start but I kinda hope he doesn't get the start. I like Josh off the bench b/c he is an energy guy. Sure, an energy guy can start but these guys, like TT bring in that extra energy off the bench which seems to help and also exposes the opponents who are already showing signs of fatigue. Their effectiveness both seems best when the other team is kinda worn down. Something else with Josh to add on to some of his foul troubles is that if the game does come down towards the end, I'd probably want Hairston in there at the end for defensive purposes and I'd want him to have some fouls to give.

So I'd start either Amile/Alex and see what they bring which saves Josh for the end of the game and if Alex/Amile actually show something, we can just ride them. But usually by the end of the game, the offense won't get to the 4th or 5th option and K will run it through Cook/Curry or Plumlee.

[rhynelander]

I kinda like the idea of young Amile guarding Leslie. Not only is Amile a south paw like leslie, but they each have similar builds and length; although Leslie may be slightly more explosive. Just could see CJ having less trouble getting by the slower Hairston. Obviously we're losing out offensively sans Kelly, but I think a few more shots for Mason, and especially Curry isn't necessarily a terrible thing (at least not for too long.) We will miss Ryan's improved rebounding, as limiting second chance points has been an issue against more athletic teams, like State. Guess we'll see if a 4 by committee approach can patch the hole in our lineup without Ryan. It'll be cool to see the matchup of Rasheed and Rodney Purvis, that's for sure.

[licc85]

I kinda like the idea of young Amile guarding Leslie. Not only is Amile a south paw like leslie, but they each have similar builds and length; although Leslie may be slightly more explosive. Just could see CJ having less trouble getting by the slower Hairston. Obviously we're losing out offensively sans Kelly, but I think a few more shots for Mason, and especially Curry isn't necessarily a terrible thing (at least not for too long.) We will miss Ryan's improved rebounding, as limiting second chance points has been an issue against more athletic teams, like State. Guess we'll see if a 4 by committee approach can patch the hole in our lineup without Ryan. It'll be cool to see the matchup of Rasheed and Rodney Purvis, that's for sure.

Go youtube Leslie . . . . "slightly more explosive" is a HUGE understatement. I love Amile's legnth and energy, but he's not close to CJ Leslie in terms of explosiveness. Leslie is an elite athlete, and someone who the coaches had pegged as the favorite for ACC player of the year in the preseason. I remember the first time I saw his high school mixtapes, that dude can throw down 360 degree dunks in his sleep.

[LSanders]

Lots of good points made, and Alex is probably the most natural option for Leslie. But ...

What if K moves Marshall to the 5 and lets Mason play a mobile 4 and cover Leslie?

Though we haven't seen a lot of Marshall lately, I remember reading K was very complimentary before MP3 got hurt.

[JNort]

Go youtube Leslie . . . . "slightly more explosive" is a HUGE understatement. I love Amile's legnth and energy, but he's not close to CJ Leslie in terms of explosiveness. Leslie is an elite athlete, and someone who the coaches had pegged as the favorite for ACC player of the year in the preseason. I remember the first time I saw his high school mixtapes, that dude can throw down 360 degree dunks in his sleep.

Lol I was thinking the same thing when he posted "slightly more explosive". Ha Leslie is probably one f the top 5 most explosive players in D1 basketball. It's the reason I enjoy watching him play, I saw part of a State game a couple weeks ago were CJ got the ball right under the hoop and had guys all around him and he jumped up like most players and you expect a shot off the glass but he 360 (might have been 180 foggy memory) slams it instead. Just unreal

[Scorp4me]

Tyler came out of the womb seemingly with them mastered.

Be careful Newton, you're complimenting Tyler Thornton and that is generally frowned upon on this board. Tyler is most everyone's favorite player to harp on and I feel fortunate for those who can see his positive qualities. The DBR made a recommendation that if they could pick one player to keep around forever it'd be Tyler...I expected the board to melt down. But as in most cases whenever his name is mentioned, if it's not being complained about most people just gloss over it. Can you imagine Tyler having a game like Quinn had recently, the discussion that would ensue. When it's Quinn he gets votes for MOTM, if it was Tyler they'd want to tar and feather him. Although in most cases people forget he even played. I always love it in the post game threads where people give their little summary of each players game...usually Tyler isn't even mentioned. Sorry it's just been bugging me, particularly when paired against the support Quinn has gotten (which is easy to do considering our PG needs).

Fortunately Coach K coaches...not the posters. I'm not one to never question him, but he sure gets it right alot more than this board! Amazing he is able to do that with only practices to go on when we seem to have so much information here online. Guess it just makes his accomplishments that much more impressive. Sorry to derail the thread, I've considered starting one simply to point out the slights against Tyler and just didn't feel it was a good thread to start...but after reading more as usual in this one it just came out.

[Clemfan]

I have been so upset about Ryan being out that I have forgotten about the rest of the team having t still play without him until I read the front page piece. So who do yall think gets the nod going forward and especially in the State game since it's our biggest threat in the ACC.

Personally for the State game I would like to see Amile get the bulk of the PT so he can guard Leslie with Josh and Alex spelling him. I am not the biggest fan of Hairston but I doubt K will keep his mins down with Kelly out. I really think Alex could come in and play the 4 and still give us better mobility and stretch the defense but I think that will be better suited after this game. Amile I feel is the best suited to slow down or hinder Leslie. Also does Marshall get more PT to spell Mason?

I was sorry to hear about Kelly's injury, and I hope he can return soon.

Hey, we'll send you Milton Jennings if you'll give us a case of Gatorade in exchange.

[JNort]

Be careful Newton, you're complimenting Tyler Thornton and that is generally frowned upon on this board. Tyler is most everyone's favorite player to harp on and I feel fortunate for those who can see his positive qualities. The DBR made a recommendation that if they could pick one player to keep around forever it'd be Tyler...I expected the board to melt down. But as in most cases whenever his name is mentioned, if it's not being complained about most people just gloss over it. Can you imagine Tyler having a game like Quinn had recently, the discussion that would ensue. When it's Quinn he gets votes for MOTM, if it was Tyler they'd want to tar and feather him. Although in most cases people forget he even played. I always love it in the post game threads where people give their little summary of each players game...usually Tyler isn't even mentioned. Sorry it's just been bugging me, particularly when paired against the support Quinn has gotten (which is easy to do considering our PG needs).

Fortunately Coach K coaches...not the posters. I'm not one to never question him, but he sure gets it right alot more than this board! Amazing he is able to do that with only practices to go on when we seem to have so much information here online. Guess it just makes his accomplishments that much more impressive. Sorry to derail the thread, I've considered starting one simply to point out the slights against Tyler and just didn't feel it was a good thread to start...but after reading more as usual in this one it just came out.

Well this post was highly inaccurate. I think most people on this board realize who Tyler is and what he brings to the team offensively and defensively as well as the other things (heart, toughness, etc...) and you just disagree. Even the way K plays him supports what the general observer here has said.

[jcastranio]

Hmm ...

I would pick Josh originally with just three days notice. (50% - remember that Josh started the second half on Saturday when Ryan was out.)

I think Alex (5%) or Amile (5%) would best approximate Ryan, but I don't see K going that way. He has bringing those guys along slowly and, while their minutes should go up, I don't see the start. In addition, I sure there are some fragile egos (even on Duke) with the two - picking one or the other could have other impacts.

Marshall (5%) is a possibility for a short 3 minute start to shake them up, then get into some sort of sub pattern. Do something State won't expect or prepare for and possibly mess up their offensive game plan initially.

Tyler (35%) is the normal 6th man and a trusted K soldier. With a shorter line-up, we could pull this off against State - Mason starts on Howell, Rasheed on Leslie. Sub pattern gets a little more confused, but it can be done.

In the longer run, if Ryan is out extended time:

Either Alex or Amile emerge as a front-runner as they play more minutes with Ryan out. One of them moves into the starting lineup by the third game.

OR ...

We are successful with the lineup used at State, and we stay with that success.

[ChillinDuke]

We easily run that double screen for Seth more than Quinn drives and kicks. I think it's fairly clear from looking at shot selection and just watching how much action we run for Seth that he is one of our first three options.

As for the topic of the thread, I agree with those who are saying that Josh is going to start. I also think that, primarily because of the minutes we saw him get last night, that Alex will end up with more burn than Josh or Amile. It seemed from last night, as others have suggested, that Alex has earned more PT in practice and I see that only increasing with R Kelly's absence.

I agree with this.

I think Josh will start and get first shot at matching up Leslie. If his defense and our offense are both deemed adequate, I expect Josh to play 25 minutes, maybe more. I don't agree with the calls for Amile. His playing time has been minimal to begin with and largely situational and against lesser competition. And he simply can't stay on his feet. Amile will be a very good Duke player when his time is done, but at the current moment he is great at providing energy off the bench, good at challenging passing lanes with his length, and good at finishing in close. If Leslie gets the ball anywhere inside the 3 pt line in anything resembling an iso - I will in no way be confident that Amile can stop that with any degree of consistency. And I don't think doubling Leslie is our best gameplan from the start.

With Josh, on the other hand, I would have some degree of confidence that he can stay in front of Leslie and certainly bang with him if he decides to post. Fouls are fouls, and there will be some. I'd rather Josh be our first line of defense and use Amile to spell him / switch up the defensive look on CJ.

Now, regarding Alex. I do feel that there is a chance that this is his moment. As others have suggested, Alex fits in well to the existing offense in the roll of a perimeter "big" with adequate size. He has appeared in his limited time (to my novice eye) to be absolutely engaged on the court - understanding the offense / positioning, situational IQ, etc. His shots haven't fallen with consistency, and we haven't really seen much in the way of defense. But again, he's had such limited time that it's hard to opine, on Alex or Amile. But Alex certainly fits the existing offense better than Amile.

So in summary, and again largely echoing Big Pappa, from a stick-with-what-you-know perspective I think Hairston is the man to get first dibs. He's earned that. But from a continuity-with-the-existing-offense perspective, Alex is probably best suited at spreading the floor while still providing the height to challenge Leslie on defense.

Meanwhile, State struggled with Ga Tech through the first half last night (down 1 at half at home) before pulling their typical late-game rally; I think this is still a very winnable game even without Ryan.

Many unknowns. Excited to see how this plays out.

- Chillin

[Matches]

Like many I expect Hairston will start on Saturday. Not sure that really answers the thread's question, though, as I don't think Josh is a candidate to simply slide in and replace Ryan's minutes. If nothing else his tendency to foul on defense is likely to prohibit that.

I expect we'll try lots of different combinations and see what works. Definitely it is an opportunity for Jefferson and Murphy to step up and seize some minutes. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the four-guard lineup on occasion. We did see it briefly against Clemson. I think defensively that lineup won't work for extended periods, but it could be useful in late-game situations when we need the Good Hands Team on the floor.

Would be VERY surprised to see a Double Plumlee, though - Marshall's foot injury pretty clearly has him behind schedule right now.

[niveklaen]

This is Murphy's moment. He may not start against State, but he will have his breakout game and move into the starting lineup from then on out. The question will be 'does RS go to the bench when Kelly comes back or does Kelly find a new home as 6th man?

[DBFAN]

This is Murphy's moment. He may not start against State, but he will have his breakout game and move into the starting lineup from then on out. The question will be 'does RS go to the bench when Kelly comes back or does Kelly find a new home as 6th man?

I agree if Murphy is looking for a shot, here it is. I did think it was a strategic move by K to give Murphy as much playing time as he got in the Clemson game. Although I do feel that Sheed plays on another level when he feels like he has something to prove, instead of playing with the mindset of not making mistakes. I imagine the staff has prob downloaded an mp3 for him to listen to of people saying he can't beat State...lol..that or they will just show him the DBR boards...just kidding :)

[Monmouth77]

To take a slightly different angle on this personnel development, I wonder whether, in addition to providing Alex (or Amile) some opportunities, we may see an increased role in the offense for Rasheed.

Without Kelly's offense, we are absolutely going to need more scoring from the other starters, and though he's been slumping lately, Rasheed is a guy who can score in a lot of different ways.

I'd love to see him start the game with confidence, hunting his shot off the dribble, and getting some confidence back to hit the open threes that should still be available when Mason passes out of the double team.

[jv001]

To take a slightly different angle on this personnel development, I wonder whether, in addition to providing Alex (or Amile) some opportunities, we may see an increased role in the offense for Rasheed.

Without Kelly's offense, we are absolutely going to need more scoring from the other starters, and though he's been slumping lately, Rasheed is a guy who can score in a lot of different ways.

I'd love to see him start the game with confidence, hunting his shot off the dribble, and getting some confidence back to hit the open threes that should still be available when Mason passes out of the double team.

I thought about this as well. While Rasheed has taken a step backward on offense, Coach K has shown confidence in Sheed by setting up plays to drive the ball. I look for more of this against State and upcoming games. It's an opportunity for Rasheed to get his offense going again and at the same time could create kick outs to Seth and Quinn. I just hope he's stronger with the ball and does not try to avoid contact with some dipsy doodle shot. Go up strong young man. GoDuke!

[MCFinARL]

We easily run that double screen for Seth more than Quinn drives and kicks. I think it's fairly clear from looking at shot selection and just watching how much action we run for Seth that he is one of our first three options.

As for the topic of the thread, I agree with those who are saying that Josh is going to start. I also think that, primarily because of the minutes we saw him get last night, that Alex will end up with more burn than Josh or Amile. It seemed from last night, as others have suggested, that Alex has earned more PT in practice and I see that only increasing with R Kelly's absence.


I agree if Murphy is looking for a shot, here it is. I did think it was a strategic move by K to give Murphy as much playing time as he got in the Clemson game. Although I do feel that Sheed plays on another level when he feels like he has something to prove, instead of playing with the mindset of not making mistakes. I imagine the staff has prob downloaded an mp3 for him to listen to of people saying he can't beat State...lol..that or they will just show him the DBR boards...just kidding :)

Not saying this won't end up being a big opportunity for Alex--it might. And it's true that Alex saw time in the first half against Clemson, which was notable. But in the end, he had 5 minutes of playing time, compared to 9 for Amile. So I'm not sure the Clemson game offers the strongest evidence that Alex will get more time than Amile.

[Kedsy]

The parenthetical subtitle of this thread refers to games after this Sat. Fortunately [or perhaps conspiratorially, as in "K controls the ACC, the NCAA, college basketball, and the Trilateral Commission"], in the 10 days after Sat, Duke plays but a single game, at home v. GaTech. Gives K some time to assess positives and negatives coming out of State game, and concoct a plan for indefinitely. Or several.

Wow, that is a ray of sunshine. Put another way, if Ryan is out two weeks from the time of his injury (the low end of the uninformed estimates we've been reading), he'll only miss one game. That would be a colossal waste of good angst, wouldn't it?

[CDu]

Wow, that is a ray of sunshine. Put another way, if Ryan is out two weeks from the time of his injury (the low end of the uninformed estimates we've been reading), he'll only miss one game. That would be a colossal waste of good angst, wouldn't it?

Well, he'd miss 2 games (@NCSU on Saturday and vs GT on 1/17), and be possibly out for a third (unless it is exactly two weeks out).

But at the very least, that much time does benefit us in terms of giving coach K and the staff ample time to prepare the team for an approach to win without Kelly in the event that he's out for longer than 2 weeks.

[Big Pappa]

Not saying this won't end up being a big opportunity for Alex--it might. And it's true that Alex saw time in the first half against Clemson, which was notable. But in the end, he had 5 minutes of playing time, compared to 9 for Amile. So I'm not sure the Clemson game offers the strongest evidence that Alex will get more time than Amile.

I think the difference is that Alex entered the game at the 6:43 mark of the first half when the game was 16-6 in favor of Duke and he then played about three meaningful minutes and scored. Amile, although he ended up recording more time, did not enter the game until the 13:58 mark of the second half when the game was 39-22 in favor of Duke.

I am arguing that, although Amile played more minutes, they were not more meaningful minutes.

[Kedsy]

Tyler (35%) is the normal 6th man and a trusted K soldier. With a shorter line-up, we could pull this off against State - Mason starts on Howell, Rasheed on Leslie. Sub pattern gets a little more confused, but it can be done.

Again, I would say this is highly unlikely. It would kill our defense, with huge height mismatches at four positions, and wouldn't really help our offense. Not sure what the value is of placing percentages on these things when we have no idea what might actually happen, but rather than a 35% chance that Tyler starts I'd go with something closer to 0.35%.

This is not to say we may not play the four guard offense for a few minutes here or there, for example to press or trap the other team and shift the momentum for a short spell, or at the end of a close game when we need ballhandlers and free throw shooters, but I'd be shocked if we do it for long periods.


With Josh, on the other hand, I would have some degree of confidence that he can stay in front of Leslie and certainly bang with him if he decides to post. Fouls are fouls, and there will be some. I'd rather Josh be our first line of defense and use Amile to spell him / switch up the defensive look on CJ.

I'd be very pleasantly surprised if Josh could stay in front of Leslie. I agree he could bang with him if Leslie decides to post up, but why would Leslie do that against Josh when he has such a big face up advantage?

As jcastranio pointed out, Josh did start the second half against Clemson, so I agree there's a decent shot he starts against State. But you can bet Coach K will have a backup plan in case Josh picks up two fouls in the first two minutes, which IMO has a pretty good chance of happening.


The correct move would be Murphy so we have a stretch 4. Maybe he's not ready defensively, but losing the stretch 4 really kills our offense.

Since Coach K generally values defense a lot more than offense, I'm not sure glossing over Alex's defensive deficiencies is truly the "correct" move. If Alex isn't ready defensively, he won't play much.


To take a slightly different angle on this personnel development, I wonder whether, in addition to providing Alex (or Amile) some opportunities, we may see an increased role in the offense for Rasheed.

I completely agree with this. And not just an increase in Rasheed's scoring role. I believe the best way to deal with this may be to have Quinn and Rasheed slash into the middle of the lane and force State to stop the drive. If State is already doubling Mason, that leaves both a shooter open on the perimeter (Seth or whichever of Quinn/Rasheed doesn't have the ball) and a guy open on the weak side post (Josh, Amile, Marshall, whoever).

If the weak side post guy can't take advantage of being left alone, that could make things more difficult. And the above may not work if State just completely packs the lane, but then Seth, Rasheed, and Quinn will have plenty of room to shoot. Obviously there's no ideal solution here, but I agree with you that putting the ball in Rasheed's hands more is a pretty decent start.


This is Murphy's moment. He may not start against State, but he will have his breakout game and move into the starting lineup from then on out. The question will be 'does RS go to the bench when Kelly comes back or does Kelly find a new home as 6th man?

I laughed out loud at this. Originally I intended to explain why Alex is never in a million years going to replace Ryan in the starting lineup if Ryan is healthy and available, but then I realized there's no point.

Having said that, it's possible once Ryan is cleared for game duty that he comes off the bench for a game or two until he regains his conditioning. That's a lot different from saying Ryan may "find a new home as 6th man."

[Kedsy]

Well, he'd miss 2 games (@NCSU on Saturday and vs GT on 1/17), and be possibly out for a third (unless it is exactly two weeks out).

But at the very least, that much time does benefit us in terms of giving coach K and the staff ample time to prepare the team for an approach to win without Kelly in the event that he's out for longer than 2 weeks.

Ah, yes, you're obviously correct. I misread gumbo's post and thought he said State was our only game in 10 days. Still, if Ryan is only out a couple weeks, I suppose it's nice that the one weekend we don't have a game is next weekend.

[CDu]

I think the difference is that Alex entered the game at the 6:43 mark of the first half when the game was 16-6 in favor of Duke and he then played about three meaningful minutes and scored. Amile, although he ended up recording more time, did not enter the game until the 13:58 mark of the second half when the game was 39-22 in favor of Duke.

I am arguing that, although Amile played more minutes, they were not more meaningful minutes.

The other thing to consider is that Murphy played his minutes at SF. Jefferson got his at PF.

In the second half, with Kelly out, we started with Hairston at PF and Jefferson backed him up. Murphy didn't really play any PF. So Murphy's minutes earlier in the game aren't so relevant unless Coach K decides to change his strategy. So while Jefferson's minutes may or may not have been more meaningful, they are probably more relevant than Murphy's time earlier at SF when discussing options for replacing Kelly at PF.

[JBDuke]

Folks, I had to delete several posts that started with a destructively negative comment about possible replacements for Ryan in the starting lineup.

No one thinks this is good for Duke, especially in the short term. But if you must criticize those players that might be getting more time while Ryan recovers, you must do so in a contructive way. Destructively negative posts will be deleted, and your profile will be cited for them.

[gumbomoop]

A few thoughts on depth, rotation, cat and mouse:

1. NCSt plays 7 guys, with T.J. Warren getting major minutes, Tyler Lewis a few. T.J. Warren has, from my quick perusal, not been mentioned in this thread; but he seems to be an important contributor, and thus a potential problem as a very effective 6th man.

2. I'll guess K will play 9 guys in the first half, and Gottfried will play 8. I tend to think in terms of perimeter and interior, so I'm guessing, first half at least, we'll see various matchups.

3. Perimeter starters - Cook v. Brown, Curry v. Purvis, Sulaimon v. Wood. Brown has a big height/weight advantage v. Cook, so I'd expect him to post up some. Sulaimon already has plenty of experience running around high screens, so he better put that experience to good use in keeping Wood close, and a hand up at all times. As others have noted, Rasheed also has to hit some jumpers and get to the rim, too. Rasheed is going to be exhausted. Good for him. Unless Curry's leg injury messes him up on Sat, I'd expect him to get the better of Purvis, on both O and D.

3a. Perimeter subs - Wouldn't expect Tyler Lewis to play big minutes, unless Purvis gets in foul trouble v. Curry. I'll guess T.J. Warren will play some on perimeter, some inside. K and Gottfried will probably play cute cat and mouse games with substitution patterns, as Warren presents a big problem on perimeter. I could imagine Sulaimon or even Thornton guarding him, when he's a perimeter sub. I would be surprised, if intrigued, if at any point K played Mason and 4 guards [exception: Duke ball, up by 5, less than 1:15 left, NCSt needs to foul]. NCSt has so much size that during run of the game, I'd assume Thornton would sub only for one of perimeter starters. Thornton must not get in foul trouble, and must disrupt things in guarding maybe 4 different perimeter guys [at different times.....].

4. Interior - I expect K to start Josh, and give Alex, Amile, and Marshall a few minutes each in first half. Alex and Amile would probably guard Leslie and/or Warren, when the latter plays as an interior sub. Another cat and mouse situation I expect to see in first half, if only for a minute or 2: either K will sub in Marshall for Mason, causing Gottfried to play 8th man Vandenberg v. MP3. Or vice-versa: Gottfried subs in Vandenberg for Howell, and K counters with MP3 for a minute or so v. Vandenberg. Each coach needs to protect his center from foul problems.

5. Overall, it's clear that with Ryan out, the matchup-size advantage leans heavily to the Pack. For good reason, the main theme in this thread concerns who'll guard C.J. Leslie. I assume in first half Josh, Amile, and Alex will all get a chance. Depending on foul problems and who's had a little success, maybe K will leave Amile or Alex on bench 2d half.

6. Will be interesting to see whether Gottfried chooses to double on Mason. Have to believe he's concerned that Howell might get in foul trouble trying to stop Mason one-on-one. And it makes sense to double, for no Ryan means 1 less 3-bomber out there for Mason to pass to. Surely State will double using Josh/Amile/Alex's defender, allowing any of those a free look, daring them to shoot a jumper. State's perimeter defenders, again, surely will stick to Quinn, Seth, Rasheed, and Tyler, too. Let the untested J/A/A prove they can score.

7. State's top 6 look formidable, more formidable at home than Duke's top 6. Duke might, however, have a slight advantage in cat and mouse sub stuff, as K might get enough O & D productivity from Marshall, Alex, and Amile; whereas Gottfried can't be expecting much from his 7th and 8th guys.

8. I'm hoping Duke gets some fast break points, with Mason beating Howell down [up??] the court for a dunk or 2 [no thunder-dumbs, please, please]. Anyone seen State enough to know whether they get back on D?

[Kedsy]

T.J. Warren has, from my quick perusal, not been mentioned in this thread; but he seems to be an important contributor, and thus a potential problem as a very effective 6th man.

I mentioned Warren a bunch of times. He poses a huge size mismatch on the perimeter. I'm assuming Leslie (who will have State's biggest mismatch with Ryan out) will play 35+ minutes, which means most of Warren's time will come at SF.


3. Perimeter starters - Cook v. Brown, Curry v. Purvis, Sulaimon v. Wood. Brown has a big height/weight advantage v. Cook, so I'd expect him to post up some. Sulaimon already has plenty of experience running around high screens, so he better put that experience to good use in keeping Wood close, and a hand up at all times. As others have noted, Rasheed also has to hit some jumpers and get to the rim, too. Rasheed is going to be exhausted. Good for him. Unless Curry's leg injury messes him up on Sat, I'd expect him to get the better of Purvis, on both O and D.

I'm not convinced Quinn can handle Brown adequately. It's not just posting up; Brown will be able to see over Quinn pretty easily, and I don't know that Quinn even has a quickness advantage to make up for the 4 or 5 inches he's giving up. We may need Rasheed to cover Brown and let Quinn take Purvis and put Seth on Wood. When Warren is on the perimeter, Rasheed will have to go there, Quinn will have to do his best against Brown and again Seth will take Wood.

I have no idea how State will match up when we're on offense, but if I were them, I wouldn't put Purvis on Seth -- I'd want someone taller who can make it more difficult for Seth to get a shot off. Without Ryan, Seth's going to need to shoot well and often for us to succeed.


6. Will be interesting to see whether Gottfried chooses to double on Mason.

I would, if I were him. I'd double Mason, stick a big defender on Seth to make it more difficult both for Mason to find Seth and for Seth to get a shot off, and dare Quinn and Rasheed to beat them. In fact, if Brown can stay in front of Quinn (and my guess is he can), and if Wood can successfully navigate through screens to stick with Seth, then doubling on Mason would essentially dare Rasheed -- a freshman who's in the first slump of his young Duke career -- to beat them. I'm hopeful Rasheed can rise to the situation, but it would seem the best bet from State's standpoint.

[SupaDave]

I mentioned Warren a bunch of times. He poses a huge size mismatch on the perimeter. I'm assuming Leslie (who will have State's biggest mismatch with Ryan out) will play 35+ minutes, which means most of Warren's time will come at SF.

I'm not convinced Quinn can handle Brown adequately. It's not just posting up; Brown will be able to see over Quinn pretty easily, and I don't know that Quinn even has a quickness advantage to make up for the 4 or 5 inches he's giving up. We may need Rasheed to cover Brown and let Quinn take Purvis and put Seth on Wood. When Warren is on the perimeter, Rasheed will have to go there, Quinn will have to do his best against Brown and again Seth will take Wood.

I have no idea how State will match up when we're on offense, but if I were them, I wouldn't put Purvis on Seth -- I'd want someone taller who can make it more difficult for Seth to get a shot off. Without Ryan, Seth's going to need to shoot well and often for us to succeed.

Of all of those folks - the only one that scares me is Scott Wood. When he gets hot he can be dangerous - otherwise the rest are streaky on both offense and defense. I'm not too concerned at all. Thornton will drive at least ONE of those guys batty.

I just watched Tech give it to NC State and though they lost they were in it for 30 minutes but State had just a bit more will and fire power versus a young team. This will not be the case against us.

[gumbomoop]

I mentioned Warren a bunch of times. He poses a huge size mismatch on the perimeter. I'm assuming Leslie (who will have State's biggest mismatch with Ryan out) will play 35+ minutes, which means most of Warren's time will come at SF.

I'd double Mason.... Doubling on Mason would essentially dare Rasheed -- a freshman who's in the first slump of his young Duke career -- to beat them. I'm hopeful Rasheed can rise to the situation, but it would seem the best bet from State's standpoint.

My bad for missing your comments on Warren. I read too quickly. Doesn't Warren also gets some interior minutes subbing for both Leslie and Howell? I didn't see last night's NCSt game v. GT, but from the box score it appears that of Warren's 24 minutes, maybe 16 came subbing for those 2 bigs.

On the strategy of doubling Mason: rather than daring Rasheed to beat them, why not dare Josh/Alex/Amile, i.e., whoever is the assignment for the guy who's doubling down on Mason? This may be a minor point, as State could double with different guys at different times, and dare any of R/J/A/A/T to beat them, while, as you say, making damn sure Seth is never alone, nor Quinn either.

[Billy Dat]

...Which is why I think K will do something a little different here besides just "plugging" Josh into Ryan's starting spot and playing him Ryan's normal minutes. K is most likely at a minimum going to platoon the threesome of Josh, Amile, and Alex, and stick with whichever one of them is most effective game over game. K often subs by feel based on how the game is going and how effective certain guys are in each game. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I just hope Ryan does not miss more than 2 to 3 weeks.

Thinking longer term, say if Ryan's out for a month and 7-8 games, I thought K's post-game comments about depth were interesting and suppport Newton's platoon idea, at least initially.

"On developing the depth:
Just like on a newspaper, if there wasn’t separation then they would have everybody doing your jobs. They think that you are really good and they want you doing your job all the time. There is somebody who might be talented below you but there is that much separation. I am not fooling around. With a senior really good player there is major separation, especially when the other guys are freshmen. There is separation of talent and experience. Whereas, when you have a team that doesn’t have that there is more of a chance of equal minutes, stuff like that. You just have to manage the game differently. I do that with every team that I’ve had, including the Olympic team. Not everyone got equal minutes there either. There was separation between LeBron [James], Kobe , Carmelo [Anthony], Chris [Paul], [Kevin] Durant. So they played a lot of minutes. I think any coach, to be successful, he is going to play his best players the most minutes. [B]The neat thing is that our guys are practicing well and had really good minutes tonight. I’m not sure of the status of Ryan for Saturday so that means there isn’t separation, so they will have opportunity. The experience they got tonight will be helpful.”

You'd think, though, that K's preference for identifying the better guys and giving them the lion's share of the PT would result in this being a short and relatively intense audition period for those 28 mpg. Even if Josh and Tyler swallow a chunk of them, you'd think K would rather settle on one of the three remaining to grab that consistent 10 mpg role that Josh was formerly playing. It's a dare to be great situation. If I can put aside my melancholy over the injury, I think it will be fun to watch. I hope everyone who pleaded for Alex, Amile and Marshall to get more PT will forgive them their unavoidable forthcoming foibles.

[Big Pappa]

Of all of those folks - the only one that scares me is Scott Wood. When he gets hot he can be dangerous - otherwise the rest are streaky on both offense and defense. I'm not too concerned at all. Thornton will drive at least ONE of those guys batty.

I just watched Tech give it to NC State and though they lost they were in it for 30 minutes but State had just a bit more will and fire power versus a young team. This will not be the case against us.

I agree about Wood, but I disagree about him being the only scary one and that the rest of the team is streaky on offense. For example, take a look at TJ Warren's numbers:

T.J. Warren - 26.0mpg 12.5ppg 3.5rpg .675FG% .533FG%

One other thing that is worrisome for me regarding the game on Saturday is Richard Howell. Howell is 6'8" 257lbs, almost a mirror image to Devin Booker (6'8" 250lbs). The way that Booker played Mason (Coach K referred to it as a wash) worries me that Howell will have similar success against him. If Howell is able to "wash" Mason we essentially are regulated to having Seth, Sheed, Quinn, and some combination of Josh, Tyler, Amile, and Alex attempting to outscore Leslie, Brown, Wood, Warren, and Purvis.

Basically what I am getting at is that if Howell is able to "wash" the matchup with Mason as Booker did, I see us being in some trouble especially in a hostile ACC road environment.

[Kedsy]

My bad for missing your comments on Warren. I read too quickly. Doesn't Warren also gets some interior minutes subbing for both Leslie and Howell? I didn't see last night's NCSt game v. GT, but from the box score it appears that of Warren's 24 minutes, maybe 16 came subbing for those 2 bigs.

In most games, I think you may be right (I don't get to see State play all that much). Leslie averages 32 mpg, Howell 28 mpg (with Vandenberg playing 5), and Warren 26 mpg. In this game, however, if I'm Gottfried, I'd up Leslie's minutes (because he represents a major mismatch against a Ryan-less Duke team) and play Howell as much as he can stand (because Leslie or Warren guarding Mason is a potential disaster for State). If Leslie plays 35 to 37 minutes instead of his usual 32, and Howell and Vandenberg can also combine for 35 to 37 minutes, then you only play Warren inside for a few minutes and most of those would be when Mason's not in the game. Playing Warren on the perimeter would also give State a big size advantage out there, which would seem to be even more incentive to try it the way I've outlined it.

Of course, if Leslie or Howell get into foul trouble then it all goes out the window for State. Then they'd lose a lot of their advantages and have to try to contain Mason with a much smaller defender. This would seem to be our best hope, if we can swing it.


On the strategy of doubling Mason: rather than daring Rasheed to beat them, why not dare Josh/Alex/Amile, i.e., whoever is the assignment for the guy who's doubling down on Mason? This may be a minor point, as State could double with different guys at different times, and dare any of R/J/A/A/T to beat them, while, as you say, making damn sure Seth is never alone, nor Quinn either.

Well, in the scenario I mentioned, the opponent is completely ignoring Josh/Alex/Amile, as well as daring Rasheed to beat them. The reasoning being that J/A/A is (a) our least talented offensive player; (b) J/A/A will probably be positioned relatively low and thus if they get the ball one of the defenders clogging the lane won't be too far away to challenge a shot; and (c) in the defensive scenario we're discussing, it might not be that easy for Rasheed or Quinn to find J/A/A in an advantageous position.

Put another way, I think it would be really, really hard for State (or most other teams) to shut down all four of Mason, Seth, Quinn, and Rasheed. If I were planning the defense I'd try to shut down Mason, Quinn, and Seth, assume J/A/A won't hurt me too much, and dare Rasheed to beat me. Is that a better way of explaining my position?

[ChillinDuke]

Again, I would say this is highly unlikely. It would kill our defense, with huge height mismatches at four positions, and wouldn't really help our offense. Not sure what the value is of placing percentages on these things when we have no idea what might actually happen, but rather than a 35% chance that Tyler starts I'd go with something closer to 0.35%.

This is not to say we may not play the four guard offense for a few minutes here or there, for example to press or trap the other team and shift the momentum for a short spell, or at the end of a close game when we need ballhandlers and free throw shooters, but I'd be shocked if we do it for long periods.



I'd be very pleasantly surprised if Josh could stay in front of Leslie. I agree he could bang with him if Leslie decides to post up, but why would Leslie do that against Josh when he has such a big face up advantage?

As jcastranio pointed out, Josh did start the second half against Clemson, so I agree there's a decent shot he starts against State. But you can bet Coach K will have a backup plan in case Josh picks up two fouls in the first two minutes, which IMO has a pretty good chance of happening.



Since Coach K generally values defense a lot more than offense, I'm not sure glossing over Alex's defensive deficiencies is truly the "correct" move. If Alex isn't ready defensively, he won't play much.



I completely agree with this. And not just an increase in Rasheed's scoring role. I believe the best way to deal with this may be to have Quinn and Rasheed slash into the middle of the lane and force State to stop the drive. If State is already doubling Mason, that leaves both a shooter open on the perimeter (Seth or whichever of Quinn/Rasheed doesn't have the ball) and a guy open on the weak side post (Josh, Amile, Marshall, whoever).

If the weak side post guy can't take advantage of being left alone, that could make things more difficult. And the above may not work if State just completely packs the lane, but then Seth, Rasheed, and Quinn will have plenty of room to shoot. Obviously there's no ideal solution here, but I agree with you that putting the ball in Rasheed's hands more is a pretty decent start.



I laughed out loud at this. Originally I intended to explain why Alex is never in a million years going to replace Ryan in the starting lineup if Ryan is healthy and available, but then I realized there's no point.

Having said that, it's possible once Ryan is cleared for game duty that he comes off the bench for a game or two until he regains his conditioning. That's a lot different from saying Ryan may "find a new home as 6th man."

Agree with most of this.

As to the bolded, I just think a junior Josh is more suited to stay in front of CJ Leslie than a freshman (whether redshirt or true) - perhaps not in foot speed per se, but in anticipation. And further, if Josh is limited in face up defense then Alex and (more so) Amile are limited in post defense - so pick your poison, really, when it comes to guarding Leslie.

All in, I just think Josh will get first dibs. Failing him, cross your fingers. Maybe even cross your fingers regardless.

- Chillin

[sporthenry]

Agree with most of this.

As to the bolded, I just think a junior Josh is more suited to stay in front of CJ Leslie than a freshman (whether redshirt or true) - perhaps not in foot speed per se, but in anticipation. And further, if Josh is limited in face up defense then Alex and (more so) Amile are limited in post defense - so pick your poison, really, when it comes to guarding Leslie.

All in, I just think Josh will get first dibs. Failing him, cross your fingers. Maybe even cross your fingers regardless.

- Chillin

I mentioned it earlier too but wouldn't it also be best to save some fouls for Josh towards the end of the game. When will Josh's defense be more important? With 19:00 left in the first half or with 1:00 left in the 2nd half. Now Josh doesn't strike me as someone afraid to use his fouls even if he has 4 but I want Josh out there defensively at the end of the game. Leslie is a relatively poor FT shooter and I think Hairston would be best served at the end of the game. I can take some missed defense assignments by Amile in the first half but not at the end. Now of course we get into the time value of points and some can argue points earlier in the game are more important but I just think Josh provides more at the end of the game. Now I don't think K will see it this way b/c he trusts his players to not foul so we'll see.

[ChillinDuke]

I mentioned it earlier too but wouldn't it also be best to save some fouls for Josh towards the end of the game. When will Josh's defense be more important? With 19:00 left in the first half or with 1:00 left in the 2nd half. Now Josh doesn't strike me as someone afraid to use his fouls even if he has 4 but I want Josh out there defensively at the end of the game. Leslie is a relatively poor FT shooter and I think Hairston would be best served at the end of the game. I can take some missed defense assignments by Amile in the first half but not at the end. Now of course we get into the time value of points and some can argue points earlier in the game are more important but I just think Josh provides more at the end of the game. Now I don't think K will see it this way b/c he trusts his players to not foul so we'll see.

Your point is well taken. But I wonder if all this talk of Josh and his foul woes is overblowing it a bit. Granted, the guy has a history of fouling, I get it. But it's also always been his role to come off the bench, provide a spark, use his body, draw charges, and rebound.

Saturday, assuming for now that he starts and/or is intended to play a lot of minutes, Josh will be asked to stay on the court, i.e. not foul. As a junior he should be able to do this. It's common to see seniors stay on the floor with 2 fouls in the first half and 10 mins left - logic being after 4 years, they should know how to play without fouling.

As a junior and in a new role, Josh needs to play without fouling (e.g) twice in the first 5 minutes. If he can't do this, we may have a problem. But he's earned the opportunity to cut him loose.

In other words I want him playing both the first five minutes and the last five minutes. Not either / or.

- Chillin

[Kedsy]

Your point is well taken. But I wonder if all this talk of Josh and his foul woes is overblowing it a bit. Granted, the guy has a history of fouling, I get it. But it's also always been his role to come off the bench, provide a spark, use his body, draw charges, and rebound.

Saturday, assuming for now that he starts and/or is intended to play a lot of minutes, Josh will be asked to stay on the court, i.e. not foul. As a junior he should be able to do this. It's common to see seniors stay on the floor with 2 fouls in the first half and 10 mins left - logic being after 4 years, they should know how to play without fouling.

As a junior and in a new role, Josh needs to play without fouling (e.g) twice in the first 5 minutes. If he can't do this, we may have a problem. But he's earned the opportunity to cut him loose.

In other words I want him playing both the first five minutes and the last five minutes. Not either / or.



I hope you're right about Josh. But he's averaging more than 8 fouls per 40 minutes this season. This represents a significant increase over his first two years at Duke (in both of which he averaged around 6.3 fouls per 40). I would argue that his fouls have gone up because his defensive style has gotten more aggressive, which in turn is probably why his defense has been better this year. He doesn't have the best lateral quickness, so he has to use positioning and aggressiveness to make up for that. If Josh has to tone it down to stay in the game longer, will his defense suffer?

Also, he has gotten pretty good at drawing charges. For a sub, that's a great risk -- if he draws the charge it's not only a turnover but it potentially puts an opposing player in foul trouble, and if he gets called for the block he's only a sub. As a starter it's a much riskier play, if you need to avoid foul trouble.

Especially since he'll probably be guarding Leslie, I just don't think we can count on Josh staying out of foul trouble. If he manages it, great, but we're going to need a plan B. And if the desire is for him to be available at the end of the game, then I think sporthenry's point is valid.

[ChillinDuke]

I hope you're right about Josh. But he's averaging more than 8 fouls per 40 minutes this season. This represents a significant increase over his first two years at Duke (in both of which he averaged around 6.3 fouls per 40). I would argue that his fouls have gone up because his defensive style has gotten more aggressive, which in turn is probably why his defense has been better this year. He doesn't have the best lateral quickness, so he has to use positioning and aggressiveness to make up for that. If Josh has to tone it down to stay in the game longer, will his defense suffer?

Also, he has gotten pretty good at drawing charges. For a sub, that's a great risk -- if he draws the charge it's not only a turnover but it potentially puts an opposing player in foul trouble, and if he gets called for the block he's only a sub. As a starter it's a much riskier play, if you need to avoid foul trouble.

Especially since he'll probably be guarding Leslie, I just don't think we can count on Josh staying out of foul trouble. If he manages it, great, but we're going to need a plan B. And if the desire is for him to be available at the end of the game, then I think sporthenry's point is valid.

All points discussed here have been valid.

There is undoubtedly a difference in mentality/style between coming off the bench and starting. My hope is that, if Josh starts, he can challenge shots and body up without fouling. But even still, as you pointed out earlier, Josh's foul rate still leads him to commit his fifth foul by his 25th minute (on average). I think all of us would agree that 25 minutes of Josh would be more than adequate with the "Plan B" going 15 or so minutes.

I guess you could even take the view that if we have to go with a "Plan B" for more than 15 minutes then it's not the worst issue because it means "Plan A" didn't go well. If you get what I'm trying to say.

Basically, Josh, Amile, and Alex are all unproven in large doses. Huge opportunity for someone to step up.

- Chillin

[CDu]

I hope you're right about Josh. But he's averaging more than 8 fouls per 40 minutes this season. This represents a significant increase over his first two years at Duke (in both of which he averaged around 6.3 fouls per 40). I would argue that his fouls have gone up because his defensive style has gotten more aggressive, which in turn is probably why his defense has been better this year. He doesn't have the best lateral quickness, so he has to use positioning and aggressiveness to make up for that. If Josh has to tone it down to stay in the game longer, will his defense suffer?

Also, he has gotten pretty good at drawing charges. For a sub, that's a great risk -- if he draws the charge it's not only a turnover but it potentially puts an opposing player in foul trouble, and if he gets called for the block he's only a sub. As a starter it's a much riskier play, if you need to avoid foul trouble.

Especially since he'll probably be guarding Leslie, I just don't think we can count on Josh staying out of foul trouble. If he manages it, great, but we're going to need a plan B. And if the desire is for him to be available at the end of the game, then I think sporthenry's point is valid.

I fully expect Hairston to have foul trouble. And as such, I fully expect we'll need to see 15+ mpg for Jefferson (or Murphy, but my suspicion is that it will be Jefferson as Hairston's primary backup).

[Kedsy]

But even still, as you pointed out earlier, Josh's foul rate still leads him to commit his fifth foul by his 25th minute (on average). I think all of us would agree that 25 minutes of Josh would be more than adequate with the "Plan B" going 15 or so minutes.

Yeah, the question is whether you care if he fouls out. I made my point about 25 minutes in response to someone saying he wouldn't stay on the floor more than 12 minutes. Obviously, without reducing his foul rate, he could. But if you need him to have a foul or two to give in the last five minutes, then the equation changes. If he's only allowed to commit four fouls then, on average, that would happen on average at around 19.5 minutes. Earlier if you start to protect him after three fouls.

Or, put another way, using his existing foul rate, if you have to take him out after he commits two first half fouls (as K does with most starters), then on average that's going to happen less than 10 minutes into the first half. Assuming he doesn't play much for the rest of the first half and doesn't pick up another foul, he'll probably be whistled for his third within the first five minutes of the 2nd half. If you really want to make sure he's available in the last five minutes of the game, you probably don't play him much from there on in (until the last five minutes), maybe a couple minutes here and there. If you say it that way it sounds a lot different than "25 minutes of Josh."

[sporthenry]

I hope you're right about Josh. But he's averaging more than 8 fouls per 40 minutes this season. This represents a significant increase over his first two years at Duke (in both of which he averaged around 6.3 fouls per 40). I would argue that his fouls have gone up because his defensive style has gotten more aggressive, which in turn is probably why his defense has been better this year. He doesn't have the best lateral quickness, so he has to use positioning and aggressiveness to make up for that. If Josh has to tone it down to stay in the game longer, will his defense suffer?

Great point. And does a less aggressive Josh even dictate getting 25 minutes of play with the rest of his game? We love him for this aggressiveness so losing it would be taking away part of his game. Like when you see big men with 4 fouls just giving away free baskets but big men like Mason at least out weigh some of that benefit offensively.

I'd rather Hairston, Amile, and Murphy all play aggressive and possibly pick up fouls then worry about fouls esp. with NC State being a rather poor FT shooting team at least when you take out Wood, Lewis and Brown who I'd advocate not fouling. But Leslie is only a 62.9% FT shooter and 58% from the field. So unless you are forcing him to shoot over you, it would almost behoove you to foul him. Addtionally, Howell is at 61% and the freshmen aren't very good, Warren at 48.6% and Purvis at 52.3%. While the replacement won't be covering these guys, I don't want them worried about taking a foul on either of them.

[CDu]

Yeah, the question is whether you care if he fouls out. I made my point about 25 minutes in response to someone saying he wouldn't stay on the floor more than 12 minutes. Obviously, without reducing his foul rate, he could. But if you need him to have a foul or two to give in the last five minutes, then the equation changes. If he's only allowed to commit four fouls then, on average, that would happen on average at around 19.5 minutes. Earlier if you start to protect him after three fouls.

Or, put another way, using his existing foul rate, if you have to take him out after he commits two first half fouls (as K does with most starters), then on average that's going to happen less than 10 minutes into the first half. Assuming he doesn't play much for the rest of the first half and doesn't pick up another foul, he'll probably be whistled for his third within the first five minutes of the 2nd half. If you really want to make sure he's available in the last five minutes of the game, you probably don't play him much from there on in (until the last five minutes), maybe a couple minutes here and there. If you say it that way it sounds a lot different than "25 minutes of Josh."

Of course, if you say it that way, you probably don't see 25 minutes of Hairston. That would be ~9.5 minutes in the first half and ~4.5 minutes in the second half and then whatever you assume he'll play down the stretch. But unless you decide to bring him back in with about 11 minutes to go in the game, you're probably looking at 20-22 mpg for Hairston (assuming he comes in sometime after the 8-minute timeout). That is, unless he reduces his foul rate.

[Kedsy]

Of course, if you say it that way, you probably don't see 25 minutes of Hairston.

Well, yeah, that was sort of my point. If you need him at the end of the game you can't just run him out there until he fouls out. My guess is, even if he starts, he doesn't get much more than 18 to 20 minutes. And if he doesn't space the fouls out evenly (because we are talking about averages here but it doesn't always work out that way), it could end up closer to 13 to 15 minutes. Unless, as you say, he reduces his foul rate.

[arnie]

Of course, if you say it that way, you probably don't see 25 minutes of Hairston. That would be ~9.5 minutes in the first half and ~4.5 minutes in the second half and then whatever you assume he'll play down the stretch. But unless you decide to bring him back in with about 11 minutes to go in the game, you're probably looking at 20-22 mpg for Hairston (assuming he comes in sometime after the 8-minute timeout). That is, unless he reduces his foul rate.

Except for Marshall (who has played about 12 minutes), Josh's scoring rate per minute played is lower than everyone else, his rebounding per minute played is lower than the other power players and he has fewer steals and blocks per minute than Todd. I recognize everyone likes his hustle and charges taken, but at some point productivity has to be part of this. For whatever reason, his rebounding is poor for his position. I hope when he's in the game, he plays as hard as he can, fouls at the right times and when he fouls out, the replacement player is more productive.

[Kedsy]

I recognize everyone likes his hustle and charges taken, but at some point productivity has to be part of this.

If Coach K agreed with your negative assessment of Josh's play, then Josh probably wouldn't be our top frontcourt reserve (at least with regards to minutes played, which is what we're discussing). My conclusion would be there must be something going on that the coaches see and you (and the statsheet) don't.

[ChillinDuke]

Of course, if you say it that way, you probably don't see 25 minutes of Hairston. That would be ~9.5 minutes in the first half and ~4.5 minutes in the second half and then whatever you assume he'll play down the stretch. But unless you decide to bring him back in with about 11 minutes to go in the game, you're probably looking at 20-22 mpg for Hairston (assuming he comes in sometime after the 8-minute timeout). That is, unless he reduces his foul rate.


Well, yeah, that was sort of my point. If you need him at the end of the game you can't just run him out there until he fouls out. My guess is, even if he starts, he doesn't get much more than 18 to 20 minutes. And if he doesn't space the fouls out evenly (because we are talking about averages here but it doesn't always work out that way), it could end up closer to 13 to 15 minutes. Unless, as you say, he reduces his foul rate.

Again, these averages are based on a player who knows he is coming off the bench and doesn't really have to worry about fouling out (as it wouldn't generally handicap the team down the stretch).

When you make said player a starter, the mindset and the equation changes. At least I believe it should.

Now, whether or not it actually changes - that's the "fun" part. I hope it's actually fun.

- Chillin

[Billy Dat]

My conclusion would be there must be something going on that the coaches see and you (and the statsheet) don't.

For example, watch how Josh sets a screen and how Amile sets a screen. One effectively screens the defender creating a real scoring opportunity, the other doesn't. As a Knicks fan, I see this all the time with Tyson Chandler (good!) vs Amare (bad!). In the cold light of day, that's the "no stats" production that earns PT for a role player.

[CDu]

Well, yeah, that was sort of my point. If you need him at the end of the game you can't just run him out there until he fouls out. My guess is, even if he starts, he doesn't get much more than 18 to 20 minutes. And if he doesn't space the fouls out evenly (because we are talking about averages here but it doesn't always work out that way), it could end up closer to 13 to 15 minutes. Unless, as you say, he reduces his foul rate.

Yeah, I think 18-22 minutes is about what we should expect from Hairston. That means that Jefferson (and possibly Murphy) better be ready to contribute double-digit minutes.

I'd expect 18-22 for Hairston and 15-20 for Jefferson. Any remaining PF minutes left over would fall to Murphy (who might also get a few minutes at SF too depending on rotations).

[sporthenry]

Except for Marshall (who has played about 12 minutes), Josh's scoring rate per minute played is lower than everyone else, his rebounding per minute played is lower than the other power players and he has fewer steals and blocks per minute than Todd. I recognize everyone likes his hustle and charges taken, but at some point productivity has to be part of this. For whatever reason, his rebounding is poor for his position. I hope when he's in the game, he plays as hard as he can, fouls at the right times and when he fouls out, the replacement player is more productive.

The other thing to take into consideration is that the other players like Amile and Murphy aren't getting consistent time. Most of their time has come in mop up duty when they are just looking to get on the stat sheet. So Amile is competing with Marshall or Hairston or Todd for rebounds while Josh is competing with Ryan, Mason, Sheed and the other starters who are meant to rebound. If you looked at Battier's scoring or rebounding per 48, they would probably be much lower than some of his peers but those aren't necessarily the stats that matter.

[sporthenry]

Again, these averages are based on a player who knows he is coming off the bench and doesn't really have to worry about fouling out (as it wouldn't generally handicap the team down the stretch).

When you make said player a starter, the mindset and the equation changes. At least I believe it should.

Now, whether or not it actually changes - that's the "fun" part. I hope it's actually fun.

- Chillin

But I think what we brought up and nobody really answered is, do we want a "changed" Josh? Of course when a kid knows he is supposed to play 25 minutes, he is going to be less aggressive. Heck, he probably can't play at his pace for 25 minutes. You often see reserves who are used to playing less time exert more energy in their short spurts because they can. But does this Josh make us better. I think his aggressiveness and his hustle are two of his biggest attributes and would this change him? Not that I don't expect him to hustle or be aggressive but it is a possibility to see these things tail off a bit.

[-jk]

Except for Marshall (who has played about 12 minutes), Josh's scoring rate per minute played is lower than everyone else, his rebounding per minute played is lower than the other power players and he has fewer steals and blocks per minute than Todd. I recognize everyone likes his hustle and charges taken, but at some point productivity has to be part of this. For whatever reason, his rebounding is poor for his position. I hope when he's in the game, he plays as hard as he can, fouls at the right times and when he fouls out, the replacement player is more productive.

Did you ever see Billy King play? Points per minute isn't everything.

-jk

[arnie]

Did you ever see Billy King play? Points per minute isn't everything.

-jk

I watched most of Billy King's games and be assured Hairston is no Billy King (or Battier for that matter).

[-jk]

I watched most of Billy King's games and be assured Hairston is no Billy King (or Battier for that matter).

If you watched him, then you know points per minute aren't everything... ;)

-jk

[1999ballboy]

Have people forgotten how well Josh played in the Kentucky game? Or that he's taken 5 charges in the last 2 games? I bet Josh starts and he does fine. He won't be a major offensive threat, but neither was Casey Sanders in '01. I'm kind of shocked to see so many fans writing him off.

Amile and Alex will play plenty of minutes and Marshall will probably get a few, but I bet Josh gets the start and plays 15-20 minutes or however long he can without fouling out. I like having a physical guy on Leslie. I don't even mind that we might foul him 5 times. Neither he nor Howell are great FT shooters. I can't remember Coach K ever benching anybody just for being foul-prone. I don't know why he'd start now, especially going into a game where physical play will behoove us.

[Furniture]

I hope it's either Alex or Amile. Josh's D is over-rated in my opinion and his O is basically non-existent. Whatever advantage Josh may have on the defensive end is negated by having to play 4 against 5 on the offensive end.

I fully agree!

[roywhite]

Frankly, I think this will sort itself out.

Josh may get the first start, but we'll also see Amile and Alex, possibly some more of Marshall. It's an opportunity for these players to play and prove themselves. Also an opportunity for the team to improve it's depth and test itself against some adversity.

To make a Final Four run, seems to me we almost certainly need a healthy, effective Ryan Kelly in March and April.

[Kedsy]

To make a Final Four run, seems to me we almost certainly need a healthy, effective Ryan Kelly in March and April.

It may not be a requisite, but I'd hope to have him back by mid- to late-February, so the team can get acclimated to him again. It's tough to plug a starter back in during the post-season, as 2011 showed us.

[PSurprise]

Frankly, I think this will sort itself out.

Josh may get the first start, but we'll also see Amile and Alex, possibly some more of Marshall. It's an opportunity for these players to play and prove themselves. Also an opportunity for the team to improve it's depth and test itself against some adversity.

To make a Final Four run, seems to me we almost certainly need a healthy, effective Ryan Kelly in March and April.

Man, as much as I hate to see Ryan go down, I see this as an outstanding opportunity for someone who hasn't seen a lot of action (or at least Ryan's minutes) to really step up. I hope to see someone take it on their shoulders to really want to "get into the game", whether it be Alex, Amile or Josh taking on a much greater role and becoming a more complete player in their new role(s). I can't wait to see how these guys do with this opening in the lineup. The possible upsides to this situation are really good for the long-term. If this was going to happen, at least it was in January and not in March (ugh, bad memories from last year). I wish Ryan a speedy recovery, and hope that the three other guys can really show us why we're proud of our team!

[gep]

Maybe Josh starting is a good thing... after all, he's one-half of The Bruise Brothers (from another thread). He should just go all out on whoever he's guarding... think Patrick Davidson on Chris Paul. Just get into their heads will work a lot... :cool:

[SoCalDukeFan]

Tyler start and Rashad to the forecourt.

SoCal

[sporthenry]

Have people forgotten how well Josh played in the Kentucky game? Or that he's taken 5 charges in the last 2 games? I bet Josh starts and he does fine. He won't be a major offensive threat, but neither was Casey Sanders in '01. I'm kind of shocked to see so many fans writing him off.

Amile and Alex will play plenty of minutes and Marshall will probably get a few, but I bet Josh gets the start and plays 15-20 minutes or however long he can without fouling out. I like having a physical guy on Leslie. I don't even mind that we might foul him 5 times. Neither he nor Howell are great FT shooters. I can't remember Coach K ever benching anybody just for being foul-prone. I don't know why he'd start now, especially going into a game where physical play will behoove us.

I'm not really writing him off. Just putting him in a position to succeed doing what he has done best recently. Perhaps he is ready to step into the starting role but all of those things like charges and hustle might be at least somewhat negated by him starting and having to stay out of foul trouble.

But I'm not sure with all the Josh hate about his offense when it isn't like Amile is an offensive wizard yet either. Amile looked rather limited offensively and even Murphy hasn't shown consistency from an offensive standpoint. Amile has only scored in 7 games this year. Yes his PT was limited but from what I can remember, a lot of them were put backs or finishing easy baskets. Similar things with Murphy although he is more versatile. Either way, I'm not expecting the 5th starter to provide too much in the form of offense.

[Kedsy]

Tyler start and Rashad to the forecourt.

You mean Rasheed? Playing PF against 6'9 Leslie? This has been discussed several times and would give us 4" to 7" height disadvantages at four positions. As I said in an earlier post, I'll be surprised if it happens for more than a few minutes.

[cptnflash]

It may not be a requisite, but I'd hope to have him back by mid- to late-February, so the team can get acclimated to him again. It's tough to plug a starter back in during the post-season, as 2011 showed us.

100% requisite. If we don't get Ryan back until very late in the season, our ceiling is meaningfully lowered.

[Kedsy]

100% requisite. If we don't get Ryan back until very late in the season, our ceiling is meaningfully lowered.

Well, I would say that our floor is lowered but our ceiling stays the same. But it's not worth arguing about.

[David]

Tyler start and Rashad to the forecourt.

SoCal

Josh will likely start but i imagine the Q-Tyler-Seth-Sheed-Mason unit will get the most minutes. Teams with more dominant rebounding and post play will present challenges for this unit. however, after seeing NC State in person recently, I actually think this unit will fare well on Sat.

[Kedsy]

Josh will likely start but i imagine the Q-Tyler-Seth-Sheed-Mason unit will get the most minutes.

I feel like a broken record, but this lineup would be at a significant defensive disadvantage, especially against State. Rasheed would be giving up 5 inches and 15 pounds to Leslie. Whoever guards Purvis would be about even (presumably Seth), but Quinn would give up 4 or 5 inches and 10 or 15 pounds to Brown and Tyler would give up 6 inches to Wood. If Warren came in for Purvis, then Seth would be giving up 6 inches to him. And the lineup you suggest wouldn't really give us much of an offensive advantage anyway. Why do you think this lineup will see the most minutes?

[gumbomoop]

Josh will likely start but i imagine the Q-Tyler-Seth-Sheed-Mason unit will get the most minutes. Teams with more dominant rebounding and post play will present challenges for this unit. however, after seeing NC State in person recently, I actually think this unit will fare well on Sat.

I don't agree with this prediction, but I applaud the boldness. I encourage you to say more about what you see in State that inclines you to think this lineup would fare well against them.

I'm genuinely interested, not being sarcastic.

[wk2109]

The starting spot might shuffle between several players before either K chooses a permanent starter or Ryan comes back. When Kyrie went down, Andre, Seth, and Tyler all started multiple games before K settled on Seth.

I don't recall Alex playing a single minute at the 4 spot this season. The only time he hasn't been at the 3 was when K has played the 'Blue Team,' shifting Alex to the 2. It would be a little bit drastic to play Alex at the 4 over two guys who have actually spent game time playing that position.

While I think that Alex might be the best match athletically with CJ Leslie, that doesn't mean he'd be the best choice to guard him. Josh will likely get the start, but Amile (and perhaps Alex) will have ample opportunity to win the spot.

Confidence is the key. Everyone who's saying that players mostly develop during practice and not by getting a few extra minutes in games is correct, but I also believe that getting to play in games, seeing success, and building confidence can go a very long way in a player's development. My hope is that Josh, Alex, Amile, and/or Marshall will take advantage of extra playing time to build confidence, turn on their own "beast modes," and convince themselves that they can truly help the team win. No matter how good a player is, sitting on the bench can make anyone doubt himself.

[David]

I don't agree with this prediction, but I applaud the boldness. I encourage you to say more about what you see in State that inclines you to think this lineup would fare well against them.

I'm genuinely interested, not being sarcastic.

I saw State play BC last weekend. BC largely played a four-guard offense (Rahon, Hanlan, Heckmann, Jackson) along with 6'8" Ryan Anderson. State was not able to exploit this lineup w their 'bigs' and they were very fortunate to win the game. State is a finesse team (albeit a talented one). I realize State will be up for Duke and I don't want to make too much of one game, but if small-ball worked against State for a less talented BC team, it can work for Duke. To clarify, I think Josh will start and Amile/MP3/Alex will get minutes, but I won't be surprised to see us play small ball and i also won't be surprised to see us have success with this lineup.

[Kedsy]

I saw State play BC last weekend. BC largely played a four-guard offense (Rahon, Hanlan, Heckmann, Jackson) along with 6'8" Ryan Anderson. State was not able to exploit this lineup w their 'bigs' and they were very fortunate to win the game. State is a finesse team (albeit a talented one). I realize State will be up for Duke and I don't want to make too much of one game, but if small-ball worked against State for a less talented BC team, it can work for Duke. To clarify, I think Josh will start and Amile/MP3/Alex will get minutes, but I won't be surprised to see us play small ball and i also won't be surprised to see us have success with this lineup.

Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't, but our four guard lineup is certainly smaller than BC's. BC's four perimeter players are listed at 6'5, 6'4, 6'3, and 6'2, while ours would be 6'4, 6'2 (generous), 6'1, and 6'1 (very generous). Their weights are listed at 205, 195, 173, 188, while ours would be 185, 185, 190, 175.

[David]

Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't, but our four guard lineup is certainly smaller than BC's. BC's four perimeter players are listed at 6'5, 6'4, 6'3, and 6'2, while ours would be 6'4, 6'2 (generous), 6'1, and 6'1 (very generous). Their weights are listed at 205, 195, 173, 188, while ours would be 185, 185, 190, 175.

Fair point. However, based on athleticism, I would trust 6'4" Sheed to guard a big (Howell/Leslie) before I trust 6'5" Heckmann.

[tele]

I saw State play BC last weekend. BC largely played a four-guard offense (Rahon, Hanlan, Heckmann, Jackson) along with 6'8" Ryan Anderson. State was not able to exploit this lineup w their 'bigs' and they were very fortunate to win the game. State is a finesse team (albeit a talented one). I realize State will be up for Duke and I don't want to make too much of one game, but if small-ball worked against State for a less talented BC team, it can work for Duke. To clarify, I think Josh will start and Amile/MP3/Alex will get minutes, but I won't be surprised to see us play small ball and i also won't be surprised to see us have success with this lineup.

I agree with this, I think josh will probably start, both because of his experience playing this season, being a junior and providing strong defense, especially drawing charges. I can see the small ball lineup to be useful in spreading the floor to make it more difficult to double Mason, and to maximize three point shooting ability. I think for Duke to win they will need to win at the lines, free throw line and three point line. Getting State's frontline players in foul trouble and keeping Mason on the floor will of course help do this. Because of the loss of Kelly, Duke's substitutions will probably be more game situation driven than matchup related, trying to get some good minutes from the bench when you can. I still like Duke's chances in this game.

[dukebballcamper90-91]

Run zone on state. Wood is the only shooter.

[Saratoga2]

I agree with this, I think josh will probably start, both because of his experience playing this season, being a junior and providing strong defense, especially drawing charges. I can see the small ball lineup to be useful in spreading the floor to make it more difficult to double Mason, and to maximize three point shooting ability. I think for Duke to win they will need to win at the lines, free throw line and three point line. Getting State's frontline players in foul trouble and keeping Mason on the floor will of course help do this. Because of the loss of Kelly, Duke's substitutions will probably be more game situation driven than matchup related, trying to get some good minutes from the bench when you can. I still like Duke's chances in this game.

While Josh has more experience and physical bulk, he also fouls too often and has a very limited offensive potential. I think both Alex with his athleticism and offensive mindset and Amile have shown enough in the very limited PT they have received, to use this game to utilize them more. Coach K has said they are good players. Maybe they will matchup better with NC State forwards.

[JNort]

Ok we all know K can sometimes throw a lineup out that nobody saw coming and sometimes it is unpopular with the fans so how about this on for size:

Mason
Amile
Alex
Seth
Quinn

6th man: Rasheed

Bench: Josh/Tyler

Also wanna say that this may not start but we could see this lineup possibly. I know I know "Amile has gone down in his pt as of late why would he start?" But like I say I wouldn't put it past K to throw a curve ball here.

[CDu]

Run zone on state. Wood is the only shooter.

Well, I disagree. Purvis is a 40% 3pt shooter. Warren is shooting over 50% from 3. Wood is shooting over 40% too. Brown and Leslie aren't very consistent, but both are capable if left open. And playing zone weakens your defensive rebounding (already a weakness), which would benefit Howell, Warren, and Leslie crashing the glass.

That, and we're not a very good team defensively in the zone. As an occasional junk defense it can sometimes help. But not as our primary defense. And definitely not against State.

[Monmouth77]

I feel like a broken record, but this lineup would be at a significant defensive disadvantage, especially against State. Rasheed would be giving up 5 inches and 15 pounds to Leslie. Whoever guards Purvis would be about even (presumably Seth), but Quinn would give up 4 or 5 inches and 10 or 15 pounds to Brown and Tyler would give up 6 inches to Wood. If Warren came in for Purvis, then Seth would be giving up 6 inches to him. And the lineup you suggest wouldn't really give us much of an offensive advantage anyway. Why do you think this lineup will see the most minutes?

I don't disagree with this line of thinking, for all the reasons you express, but recall that the most-used starting 5 for Duke's 1997 team-- the lineup that won the ACC regular season after Newton was benched-- averaged 6'4" (Wojo 5'11", Langdon 6'4," Capel 6'5", Carawell 6'6" McLeod 6'8"). None of those guys even really played in the post, and gave up big height advantages to other teams in a talent rich ACC that featured forwards like Antawn Jamison and Vince Carter. I mean, Carawell successfully guarded Tim Duncan in a major Duke upset over Wake that year.

So it's not an unprecedented tactic. And it's not crazy to imagine Coach K going small and choosing to harrass State's ballhandlers with effective perimeter players instead of putting in less tested bench guys just because they're taller -- at least for this one game.

[dukelifer]

Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't, but our four guard lineup is certainly smaller than BC's. BC's four perimeter players are listed at 6'5, 6'4, 6'3, and 6'2, while ours would be 6'4, 6'2 (generous), 6'1, and 6'1 (very generous). Their weights are listed at 205, 195, 173, 188, while ours would be 185, 185, 190, 175.

I think it matters; Our guards are small- your "very generous" is "very generous".

[Kevin in Pgh]

What if K moves Marshall to the 5 and lets Mason play a mobile 4 and cover Leslie?

Though we haven't seen a lot of Marshall lately, I remember reading K was very complimentary before MP3 got hurt.

Apparently MP3 was originally supposed to be the 6th man, but injury - and having things gel without him - put that idea on hold. But if RK is out for more than just a couple games, I think this HAS to be at least part of the strategy in the long term - and I won't be surprised to see it Saturday if we have trouble with defense on Leslie.

However, in general for Saturday, I think you want to keep as many people in their usual roles as possible, since there hasn't been a lot of time to adjust.

So, I won't be surprised if Josh to starts, because he's the 6th man. But he's been doing a good job within his role, so I think you generally want to keep him in that comfort zone - which means he won't see much more time than usual. For the same reason, you don't want to move RS to a new position or play TT a lot more.

Instead, I think the "hot hand" between Alex and Amile will take most of Kelly's minutes.

[timmy c]

Coach K said he’s not a rotation guy, but Josh will start (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205920360&DB_OEM_ID=4200)

[Big Pappa]

Coach K said he’s not a rotation guy, but Josh will start (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205920360&DB_OEM_ID=4200)

As Timmy said, Josh will start. Here is a little writeup from Blue vs. Blue:

http://www.bluevsblue.com/2013/1/11/3865928/duke-confirms-josh-hairston-will-start-vs-nc-state-in-place-of-ryan

[Bluealum]

Coach K said he’s not a rotation guy, but Josh will start (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205920360&DB_OEM_ID=4200)

Darn... now what are we going to fret about before the game? Oh we can always micro-analyze and predict minutes played, that should keep us busy.

Hope Josh plays a great game and confirms the confidence of the coaching staff.

K loves his hardworking vets. Better get used to this, next year Tyler and Josh will play a lot even thought there will be a roster full of uber talented underclassmen.

Should be an interesting game to watch. The key will be whether Mason can be effective with Josh spending time much closer to the basket that Ryan did.

[Kedsy]

Fair point. However, based on athleticism, I would trust 6'4" Sheed to guard a big (Howell/Leslie) before I trust 6'5" Heckmann.

Athleticism is not what Rasheed would need to guard Howell. They guy outweighs him by 75 pounds. And Rasheed gives Leslie 5 inches and 15 pounds (at least Heckman outweighs Leslie).

But that's really besides the point. Just because BC went this route doesn't make it a good idea. They really don't have much choice. We do. Unless we decide to press and trap for long periods of the game, it doesn't make sense to me to play a lineup shorter than many high school teams.

[David]

Athleticism is not what Rasheed would need to guard Howell. They guy outweighs him by 75 pounds. And Rasheed gives Leslie 5 inches and 15 pounds (at least Heckman outweighs Leslie).

But that's really besides the point. Just because BC went this route doesn't make it a good idea. They really don't have much choice. We do. Unless we decide to press and trap for long periods of the game, it doesn't make sense to me to play a lineup shorter than many high school teams.

This is fun - we obviously disagree on two things:
1) Will Coach K play the small-ball lineup for a reasonable segment of the game (10+ minutes)? I say yes, you say no.

2) If K does play this lineup, will it be effective? Once again, I say yes, you say no. Let's define 'effective' as +/- differential for this unit.

I will check back on this thread after the game. Happy to have you tell me 'I told you so' if I am wrong. :)

[Kedsy]

I will check back on this thread after the game. Happy to have you tell me 'I told you so' if I am wrong. :)

Ah, but I would never do that. ;)

[David]

Ah, but I would never do that. ;)

Kedsy, good call on the lineup today. You da man. Josh and Amile were much more effective than I anticipated. It will be interesting to see if K uses small ball lineup against other (smaller) teams (assuming Seth is healthy!).

[CDu]

Kedsy, good call on the lineup today. You da man. Josh and Amile were much more effective than I anticipated. It will be interesting to see if K uses small ball lineup against other (smaller) teams (assuming Seth is healthy!).

Given how well Jefferson played, how small our guards are, and how few of our remaining opponents have small lineups (more like none), I'd be surprised if we see much small ball.

For perspective, here are our next several opponents:

Ga Tech: Miller (6'11", 257), Carter (6'8", 245), Holsey (6'8", 231), Royal (6'8", 243)
Miami: Kadji (6'11", 242), Gamble (6'10", 250), Apkejiori (6'10", 236), Jekiri (7'0", 227)
Maryland: Len (7'1", 255), Padgett (6'8", 235), Mitchell (6'8", 260), Cleare (6'9", 265)
Wake: Thomas (6'9", 240), Cavanaugh (6'9", 230), Rountree (6'8", 190), Adala Moto (6'6", 225), Washington (7'0", 220)
FSU: Shannon (6'8", 240), White (6'8", 205), Turpin (7'0", 240), Bojanovsky (7'3", 240), Ojo (7'1", 290)

None of those matchups lend themselves to us going with a 4-guard lineup. Several of them DO offer an opportunity for Jefferson to make his presence felt.

[Newton_14]

Given how well Jefferson played, how small our guards are, and how few of our remaining opponents have small lineups (more like none), I'd be surprised if we see much small ball.

For perspective, here are our next several opponents:

Ga Tech: Miller (6'11", 257), Carter (6'8", 245), Holsey (6'8", 231), Royal (6'8", 243)
Miami: Kadji (6'11", 242), Gamble (6'10", 250), Apkejiori (6'10", 236), Jekiri (7'0", 227)
Maryland: Len (7'1", 255), Padgett (6'8", 235), Mitchell (6'8", 260), Cleare (6'9", 265)
Wake: Thomas (6'9", 240), Cavanaugh (6'9", 230), Rountree (6'8", 190), Adala Moto (6'6", 225), Washington (7'0", 220)
FSU: Shannon (6'8", 240), White (6'8", 205), Turpin (7'0", 240), Bojanovsky (7'3", 240), Ojo (7'1", 290)

None of those matchups lend themselves to us going with a 4-guard lineup. Several of them DO offer an opportunity for Jefferson to make his presence felt.

Yeah, agree. K will go with two bigs, keeping Josh, Amile, or MP3 in with Mason. I thought it was an outside chance that we may see Murphy get some burn at the 4 spot today, but it never happened. Alex came in for Rasheed for a couple of minutes in his normal role at the 3. However, Josh and Amile played so well today there was really no reason to play Alex at the 4. So, I will leave open the small sliver of a possibility that K will put Alex at the 4 with Mason in games at Cameron, if Amile is playing poorly or something.

Otherwise, what we saw today is what we are going to get. But hey, if Josh and Alex continue to play the way they both played today, then that is just fine with me. The biggest thing that would help this team as it stands right now though, is for Rasheed to get it back together. Dude is just really struggling.

[Edouble]

Given how well Jefferson played, how small our guards are, and how few of our remaining opponents have small lineups (more like none), I'd be surprised if we see much small ball.

For perspective, here are our next several opponents:

Ga Tech: Miller (6'11", 257), Carter (6'8", 245), Holsey (6'8", 231), Royal (6'8", 243)
Miami: Kadji (6'11", 242), Gamble (6'10", 250), Apkejiori (6'10", 236), Jekiri (7'0", 227)
Maryland: Len (7'1", 255), Padgett (6'8", 235), Mitchell (6'8", 260), Cleare (6'9", 265)
Wake: Thomas (6'9", 240), Cavanaugh (6'9", 230), Rountree (6'8", 190), Adala Moto (6'6", 225), Washington (7'0", 220)
FSU: Shannon (6'8", 240), White (6'8", 205), Turpin (7'0", 240), Bojanovsky (7'3", 240), Ojo (7'1", 290)

None of those matchups lend themselves to us going with a 4-guard lineup. Several of them DO offer an opportunity for Jefferson to make his presence felt.

If we are playing 5 on 4 against Tech, Miami, and Maryland, I like our chances!

[CDu]

If we are playing 5 on 4 against Tech, Miami, and Maryland, I like our chances!

I was just listing the big man rotation (i.e., the guys who will play PF and C), not the starting lineups. All of those teams start 3 perimeter players and two bigs. Since the discussion was about whether we'd play a 3-guard lineup or a 4-guard lineup, I didn't feel it necessary to include the opponents' guards.