PDA

View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs. N.C. State Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



Pages : [1] 2

moonpie23
01-09-2013, 08:10 AM
I guess it's not too early to put this up........


Even if RK is ready to go, this will be our biggest challenge so far this season. I DO think that State has a small amount of hype in their locker room, so i'd be fine if they came in a bit over confident. They have a good team and will be highly motivated.


Who will step up for us in this big match up?

wilko
01-09-2013, 08:54 AM
I am somewhat hesitant to discuss NCSU with you... :-) But Im gonna do it anyway...

1st I hope Kelly is cleared to go. He does make us better with the little things he does on the court. His game isn't necessarily ESPN highlite worthy - he is the glue guy and paint that covers up a range of flaws.

I'd bet Hairston gets the nod with healthy doses of Alex, Amile and MP3 - and then we ride the hot hand that can pressure/disrupt on D. Any O is gravy.

That puts pressure on the Fab Four to produce in his absence.
Quinn needs to keep rolling - His speed is very good but it seems his balance is tremendous. Is like he is smooth and fluid on rollerskates.
Sheed needs to be the player he was b4 the Christmas break.
Seth needs to continue his solid play... hopefully he can be more than good in spurts.
Need to find angles to get Mason the ball. better spacing has helped him produce early. He has struggled lately with multiple defenders riding him. Until he can figure out how to play thru it - that will continue to bog him down.

I'm still hopeful Kelly can go - but even if he can... I think he'll get plenty of rest and opportunities to have his foot accessed by the trainers so the Kelly Committee (Alex, Amile and MP3) should plan on getting action.

theAlaskanBear
01-09-2013, 09:05 AM
I am somewhat hesitant to discuss NCSU with you... :-) But Im gonna do it anyway...

1st I hope Kelly is cleared to go. He does make us better with the little things he does on the court. His game isn't necessarily ESPN highlite worthy - he is the glue guy and paint that covers up a range of flaws.

I'd bet Hairston gets the nod with healthy doses of Alex, Amile and MP3 - and then we ride the hot hand that can pressure/disrupt on D. Any O is gravy.

That puts pressure on the Fab Four to produce in his absence.
Quinn needs to keep rolling - His speed is very good but it seems his balance is tremendous. Is like he is smooth and fluid on rollerskates.
Sheed needs to be the player he was b4 the Christmas break.
Seth needs to continue his solid play... hopefully he can be more than good in spurts.
Need to find angles to get Mason the ball. better spacing has helped him produce early. He has struggled lately with multiple defenders riding him. Until he can figure out how to play thru it - that will continue to bog him down.

I'm still hopeful Kelly can go - but even if he can... I think he'll get plenty of rest and opportunities to have his foot accessed by the trainers so the Kelly Committee (Alex, Amile and MP3) should plan on getting action.

It seems like with Mason's struggles with double-teams and Kelly not being there to space the bigs for him, maybe Duke should run some sets and get him cutting rather than a low-post iso where NC State double-teams can harass him?

Channing
01-09-2013, 10:04 AM
If Kelley can't go, I wonder if we will see significantly more of Alex Murphy. Hairston is a glue guy and hustles, but he (at least to my untrained eye) appears totally incompetent in the half court offense. As mentioned, that really allows the other team to key in on Mason. Hopefully Ryan is OK, so this becomes a moot point.

Lar77
01-09-2013, 10:13 AM
Based on watching State several times this year, they are a second half team (sound familiar), stopping Wood is the key to stopping them, Howell is a good player but prone to fouls (and fatigue), Purvis will be very good but won't take over the game, CJ Leslie is an enigma, Brown is good but not like Quinn Cook. Since Ohio State, everyone has circled this as a key game for both teams. With Kelly we win. Without Kelly, we win but it is a closer game. Either way, not a win unless we give our best. Remember, this was the team that was blowing us out last year and then we won by 6.

FerryFor50
01-09-2013, 10:20 AM
I think State picks up their first significant win of the season. I think that will happen regardless of if Kelly plays or not. State is good, but will be even better because they'll be focused for this game. They match up with Duke very well and are playing at home. A recipe for disaster, for sure.

NSDukeFan
01-09-2013, 10:23 AM
If Kelley can't go, I wonder if we will see significantly more of Alex Murphy. Hairston is a glue guy and hustles, but he (at least to my untrained eye) appears totally incompetent in the half court offense. As mentioned, that really allows the other team to key in on Mason. Hopefully Ryan is OK, so this becomes a moot point.

I also hope Ryan is healthy. I expect if Ryan does not play, we will see more of Alex and Amile as it is easier to get some minutes backing up Hairston than it is to get some of Ryan's minutes.

CLW
01-09-2013, 10:23 AM
Yeah with Kelly a ? mark and whatever is going on with Mason (illness injury fatigue?) this game has an L written all over it.

roywhite
01-09-2013, 10:32 AM
Experience tells us, and Coach K has told us, that for a 1-game situation without a key player, a team often plays BETTER as others feel urgency to pick up their game. Now, the loss of a key player over a period of time is not a positive indicator for sure, but the possible loss of Kelly for this game does not doom our chances against the Wolfies.

Duke by 6 or 8 points in this one.

jipops
01-09-2013, 10:48 AM
I think this is Duke's first loss regardless of whether we have a healthy Kelly or not. Both Howell and Leslie will be difficult matchups for us and the issues we have on the boards may come further to light after this game. Also, I think a big lead guard like Lorenzo Brown poses issues for us as well seeing over the defense of our small back court. Duke hasn't played poorly over the last couple weeks but I don't think we've looked very sharp either.

State has had its issues defensively but if Kelly is unavailable this won't be a problem for the Pack as Duke's offensive output and options become significantly reduced. Floor spacing becomes difficult for our guys and Mason could very well be hounded by double teams and pushed out of the paint with non-shooters like Hairston and Jefferson left alone.

To have a shot at winning this one we will need Rasheed to break out of his recent offensive slump.

I think this is a game that catapults State briefly back to where expectations were at the beginning of the season. They may come back down a couple notches later in the season.

Bob Green
01-09-2013, 10:50 AM
Hairston is a glue guy and hustles, but he (at least to my untrained eye) appears totally incompetent in the half court offense.


A recipe for disaster, for sure.


Yeah with Kelly a ? mark and whatever is going on with Mason (illness injury fatigue?) this game has an L written all over it.

My computer appears to be broke seeing as I typed "DBR" into my browser, but was directed to "IC." C'mon folks, let's not have a meltdown before the game is even played.

roywhite
01-09-2013, 10:51 AM
Ken Pom ratings (http://kenpom.com/)

The #1 team (with the #8 offense and the #3 defense) will be taking on the #35 team (which has the #9 offense and #156 defense).
Ken and roy both think there is some hope to win the game.

FerryFor50
01-09-2013, 10:52 AM
My computer appears to be broke seeing as I typed "DBR" into my browser, but was directed to "IC." C'mon folks, let's not have a meltdown before the game is even played.

I don't think being realistic is having a meltdown. :)

I just think State will come prepared and that we'll have a hard time with the match up. Personally, I hope I am wrong!

Matches
01-09-2013, 11:13 AM
State is going to be sky-high for this one, no doubt. You can rest assured they've had this game circled on their calendar for quite awhile, especially after the way the game in Cameron went last year.

That just means this is a great opportunity, though. A win on the road over our closest challenger, this early in the season (and possibly while missing a key player) would be absolute gold.

COYS
01-09-2013, 11:32 AM
Obviously the big question now is whether or not Ryan can go.

If Ryan can play, then we'd obviously like to see him continue his recent play. However, I'd also like to see Rasheed break out of his slump and Mason get back on track a little. State is terrible at rotating on defense, so I think that when Rasheed gets into the lane he will have some good looks at the basket. Hopefully he can convert those as it will really diversify our offense.

If Ryan can't go, I will be interested to see how Coach K manages the rotation. While I definitely think Josh gets the start, there is almost no way he plays 30+ minutes without fouling out unless he dramatically changes the way he plays (which may also negate his effectiveness). Last night, Alex got significant playing time in the first half and Amile got significant time in the second. I thought both players looked really good. They both played good defense and even got a little offense going, too. However, I thought it was interesting that the staff decided to play Alex as a "3" on both offense and defense while Amile played more as a "4" (I know, Duke doesn't have positions, yeah, yeah, yeah). Amile played alongside Mason for stretches while Alex played alongside two other bigs . . . and at the very end of the game after Quinn came out, Alex played shooting guard for the final minute alongside Todd, Marshall and Amile. Assuming this configuration can be counted on to predict a Ryan-less rotation, I would expect Josh to start with Amile playing as Josh's primary backup and Marshall playing as Mason's. Alex will play on the perimeter if/when two of Quinn, Tyler, Rasheed, and Seth are on the bench.

One thing I will say is that I think Amile is a better complement to Mason on offense than Josh, as Amile has already proven to be more of a scoring threat than Josh. Neither really spaces the floor (I really dislike Josh's 19 foot jumper, as even when he's making it at a decent rate, it's a very low value shot that the defense is happy to give him in favor of staying home on Mason), but Amile is capable of cutting, catching a pass from Mason, and finishing. Don't get me wrong, I love everything Josh brings to the table on defense. His hedging is stronger and he's a much bigger body that isn't bullied down low. However, considering that I don't think there's any chance Josh plays the whole game due to fouls, I think we'll see a heavy dose of Amile. Amile might prove to be a good defensive option on CJ Leslie, as well.

As for Alex, he played much better D last night than we've seen all season. It looks like the staff has him behind Amile in the pecking order for playing time at the 4, but I think he'll get in there at the 3. The thing is, with Ryan out, we're going to want our biggest offensive threats in the game as much as possible. That means that Mason, Seth, Rasheed, and Quinn will log heavy minutes (as we'd expect, anyway). Tyler has proven capable of hitting the open kickout three, as well, which means that I'm not sure Alex is necessarily a better offensive option right now (though in the future I expect him to be, possibly even later this year). Therefore I would guess that Amile sees more minutes than Alex but that Alex does see some minutes . . . most likely on the perimeter as a sub for Rasheed when Seth is taking a rest and the staff feels that Rasheed needs a breather, as well.

wilko
01-09-2013, 11:38 AM
State is going to be sky-high for this one, no doubt. You can rest assured they've had this game circled on their calendar for quite awhile, especially after the way the game in Cameron went last year.

I cant say that to this point I am overly impressed with Gottfrieds acumen on the bench.
Hes a very sharp recruiter. I'll give him his due on that. But until he wins big games, I just refuse to be afraid. To me hes Cliff Ellis lite at least to this point. Having superior talent is by no means a guarantee of a win, it certainly helps, but it aint automatic. This isn't that disproportionate of a match-up to throw in the towel before it starts.

I can imagine a scenario where NCSU comes in super-jacked and is all thumbs and their emotion in the moment takes them out of the game before it begins. If that happens Gottfried can only look in the mirror for answers.


That just means this is a great opportunity, though. A win on the road over our closest challenger, this early in the season (and possibly while missing a key player) would be absolute gold.

BAM! I like this line of thinking...
Duke has had a habit of playing to the level of the competition. Good teams we scrap and fight hard. Mediocre teams... we play mediocre. I'm hoping that we match the energy focus and out-execute them for a win. Can we lose sure - but aint no-body handing NCSU anything. They have to take it.

Other guys have a shot to step up. Folks have been keen to see other players get some burn. Well here is where guys get the trial by fire and earn the FULL trust of the staff by executing their role and delivering.

davekay1971
01-09-2013, 01:12 PM
Assuming Ryan is ready to go...

Matchups

Perimeter
1) PG - before the season started I would have listed this as a big advantage for State. Quinn's been so good, I think this is either a wash, or slight advantage Duke. I say that with a tremendous amount of respect for Brown, who's game I love, and who's been playing well during State's winning streak.

2) Wings - Big advantage for Duke. Curry and Sulaimon are simply better than Purvis and Wood right now, and it's not close. If Kelly is playing and adding to our perimeter threats on offense, the advantage is even greater.

Interior
At the center, Mason and Howell will be a great matchup. Howell is undersized, but stronger. I expect Mason's height, and Howell's tendency toward foul trouble (my Wolfpack friends will cite ref bias, but getting in foul trouble is a Howell problem, not a Duke problem) to give the advantage to Duke. But if Howell stays out of foul trouble, he'll be a load for Mason to handle.

At the PF, Kelly and Leslie are a great contrast in styles. Leslie will prefer to play mid-range and close, use his athleticism, while Kelly will draw Leslie outside. I'll call this a wash, but Leslie had success against Duke last year.

State also has Warren, who is better on the interior than the perimeter, and probably tips the inside play advantage toward State. Sulaimon could struggle dealing with his size when he's guarding him, and Murphy and Jefferson probably will struggle with the overall quality of his game when they're on him. I see him, like Leslie, as a potential matchup problem for us.

Bench
Advantage Duke. State doesn't go terribly deep, and their falloff is steep. We know their frontcourt is thin, as well (as is ours, particularly if Kelly is out).

Coaching
Yeah, do I need to say it? I like what Gottfried's doing over there, but K is...K

The RBC will be absolutely rocking, especially if it's close or State is up. A slow start would be bad news, but fortunately State is REALLY bad about slow starts. Get out fast, get up, get the crowd down. And hope Kelly is good to go.

Billy Dat
01-09-2013, 04:52 PM
Mark Titus brings up an excellent point:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8828729/mark-titus-top-12-ncaa-power-rankings-trey-burke-towing-michigan-no-1

"Worth mentioning: Josh Hairston — the guy who would probably start in Kelly's place — turns 21 on Saturday. Duke doesn't play again until next Thursday, which means they'll probably have Sunday off. Also, the game on Saturday is at noon and is just a half-hour drive from Duke's campus. My point is this: The only thing standing in the way of Hairston going out and getting bombed on his 21st birthday is him being in a bad mood because he played poorly in a loss. If I were him, this would serve as a huge motivator to play well."

mr. synellinden
01-09-2013, 09:30 PM
Um ... Is NC State looking ahead a bit to the Duke game?

Down two to GTech at home with 11 to go.

cptnflash
01-09-2013, 10:32 PM
Um ... Is NC State looking ahead a bit to the Duke game?

Down two to GTech at home with 11 to go.

NC State rallied to beat GT by 13. Even without Ryan, we're better than GT. Should be a fun game on Saturday. Let's go Duke!

loran16
01-09-2013, 10:42 PM
Dirty Secret guys: State isn't very good. Their D is lousy - ranked #156! and they rely entirely on their O. Their offensive efficiency is basically equivalent to ours, but with a lousy D instead of a good one.

That's not a good team. Which is why they've fallen to the two top 50 teams they've played this year. Yeah that's right, they have no top 50 pomeroy wins (Duke has 5). Meanwhile, the lack of Ryan will hurt, but State's D is particularly bad at two things - offensive rebounding (which isn't a strength of ours but should be better without Ryan) - and forcing turnovers. Really without Ryan we're probably prone to a lot of turnovers...but State doesn't force any. GT had 7 TOs today in over 70 possessions. That's insane.

Not saying this won't be tough - it's an acc opponent against at least a decent opponent without Ryan, with barely any days to practice playing without Ryan. But there's a reason we were near 80% favorites by Pomeroy before today's State-GT game.

We SHOULD win. If we had Ryan, it'd be a decent upset if we didn't. Without him, we still should win.

cptnflash
01-09-2013, 10:54 PM
Mark Titus brings up an excellent point:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8828729/mark-titus-top-12-ncaa-power-rankings-trey-burke-towing-michigan-no-1

"Worth mentioning: Josh Hairston — the guy who would probably start in Kelly's place — turns 21 on Saturday. Duke doesn't play again until next Thursday, which means they'll probably have Sunday off. Also, the game on Saturday is at noon and is just a half-hour drive from Duke's campus. My point is this: The only thing standing in the way of Hairston going out and getting bombed on his 21st birthday is him being in a bad mood because he played poorly in a loss. If I were him, this would serve as a huge motivator to play well."

Great link, thanks for posting. Titus crushes it as usual.

dukelifer
01-09-2013, 10:59 PM
Dirty Secret guys: State isn't very good. Their D is lousy - ranked #156! and they rely entirely on their O. Their offensive efficiency is basically equivalent to ours, but with a lousy D instead of a good one.

That's not a good team. Which is why they've fallen to the two top 50 teams they've played this year. Yeah that's right, they have no top 50 pomeroy wins (Duke has 5). Meanwhile, the lack of Ryan will hurt, but State's D is particularly bad at two things - offensive rebounding (which isn't a strength of ours but should be better without Ryan) - and forcing turnovers. Really without Ryan we're probably prone to a lot of turnovers...but State doesn't force any. GT had 7 TOs today in over 70 possessions. That's insane.

Not saying this won't be tough - it's an acc opponent against at least a decent opponent without Ryan, with barely any days to practice playing without Ryan. But there's a reason we were near 80% favorites by Pomeroy before today's State-GT game.

We SHOULD win. If we had Ryan, it'd be a decent upset if we didn't. Without him, we still should win.

State is one of those teams that seems to find itself late in the season. I suspect they and their fans will be sky high for this game, however. So I really don't put much stock in stats for this type of game. That said- State does have its issues and could fade as they did last year if they get a big lead. Still I do not think we match up well with them. We do better on D when we force turnovers and they don't turn it over that much. They are long at multiple positions and could/should neutralize Seth. That means Quinn and Rasheed (who is in a mini slump) have to carry the load if they double Mason-which they should and likely will do. Ryan was the matchup they could not handle and his presence would have led to more options for Duke. I see this as a very tough game without Ryan.

loran16
01-09-2013, 11:05 PM
State is one of those teams that seems to find itself late in the season. I suspect they and their fans will be sky high for this game, however. So I really don't put much stock in stats for this type of game. That said- State does have its issues and could fade as they did last year if they get a big lead. Still I do not think we match up well with them. We do better on D when we force turnovers and they don't turn it over that much. They are long at multiple positions and could/should neutralize Seth. That means Quinn and Rasheed (who is in a mini slump) have to carry the load if they double Mason-which they should and likely will do. Ryan was the matchup they could not handle and his presence would have led to more options for Duke. I see this as a very tough game without Ryan.

State has ONE year under Gottfried. It's nice of you to make generalizations based upon that large sample.

dukelifer
01-10-2013, 06:43 AM
State has ONE year under Gottfried. It's nice of you to make generalizations based upon that large sample.
Well it is hard to change the culture of a program or mindset of players in one year as well. There are a lot of teams that tend to only play hard at certain times of the year or against certain teams and there are teams that aim for perfection every game. I would argue that State (as a Program) is closer to the former and Duke closer to the latter.

jcastranio
01-10-2013, 07:55 AM
Factors:

NC State "revenge" factor from last year
First game without Ryan, only three days to adjust
First road game of the season
Freshmen factor - Warren/Purvis vs Rasheed/Alex/Amile - who wins this?

There are scenarios where Duke grinds out an impressive win in a close game. It would take strong defense and big games from Curry and Cook. I think there are more scenarios - given the factors listed above - that State comes away with a win.

On offense, State has more potential firepower from their top six than we do. It doesn't mean it will happen, but I don't see State looking past this game or not being "up" for the game. Wood takes extra attention. Leslie and Brown can create their own shots. Howell (and all Howell-type players) always give Mason fits on the low post. The freshmen, Warren and Purvis, are capable of big games - certainly not guaranteed. Our defense will have to play tough - and we are missing a key component who cannot be replaced.

On defense, State has shown weakness, but I do expect them to play with more passion and fire than they have in any game this season. Our offense could be just fine - or we could be dreadful. No Ryan throws many things out of whack. Ryan was willing to take (and make) the 15 footer and the 3 pointer that actually "stretched" the defense. His able replacements (Josh, Amile, Alex) will all get those same opportunities, but will not likely take (or make) them. That makes us easier to guard. There will be more scoring pressure on Quin, Seth, Rasheed, even Tyler. Not that it can't be done.

Predictions:

State wins (75%)

Close for a few minutes, then State takes a six-eight point lead. Mason has two fouls. We scrap it out, but enter halftime down eight -ten. Our defense is adequate, but they get some low post points, some expected and unexpected three pointers (Wood, Brown, Purvis), a few fast breaks, and ten second chance points (Howell, Leslie, Warren). Second half, both teams tire with short benches, but Duke never has enough firepower to get over that early deficit. State wins, 73-65.

Duke wins (25%)

State is over pumped to start the game. Both offenses start slowly, but Duke's lineup produces a couple fast breaks and Seth hits two early threes. By midway through the half, it is a dog fight, with Duke maintaining a tenuous 2-4 point lead. Duke ends up leading 34-32 at the half (the three freshmen have contributed eight points to this). In the second half, the scrap continues, but Duke rides the free throw line to stay in front. We weather two runs - one started by a Wood three, the other by a Leslie dunk. Mason has a hard-fought double-double, Tyler has two threes, Seth goes for 19, and the freshmen combine for 15. Final is Duke, 68-65.

With Ryan in the lineup, I would have picked up 75% to 80%. His absence impacts us offensively and defensively - maybe swinging the game ten points or more. On the road - too much to overcome.

Saratoga2
01-10-2013, 08:48 AM
Losing Ryan is a big blow as he along with Quinn have contributed mightily to our recent wins.

We still will have offensive threats with Quinn, Seth and Rasheed (if he can step it back up to where he was).

In my opinion, Mason can be limited significantly by the opponents defense as he has the dunk game and will get to the free throw line. As much as I like Mason, he still has no drop step move and doesn't seem to have touch on any short range jumpers. Even his hook often is flat and more thrown in than arced in with touch. He still is a defensive and rebounding presence and will be needed in the game for close to 40 minutes.

How is Kelly to be replaced? I believe it will be a combination of Alex and Amile. Alex could blossom as a scorer since his shot range is versatile and he has the athleticism to get to the basket. Amile is a different kind of player who has shown a furious approach that might result in both defense and scoring. The best mix would be to have both of them get significant PT in the game sharing Ryan's time. Time now to see what they can do.

DBFAN
01-10-2013, 09:16 AM
Factors:

NC State "revenge" factor from last year
First game without Ryan, only three days to adjust
First road game of the season
Freshmen factor - Warren/Purvis vs Rasheed/Alex/Amile - who wins this?

There are scenarios where Duke grinds out an impressive win in a close game. It would take strong defense and big games from Curry and Cook. I think there are more scenarios - given the factors listed above - that State comes away with a win.

On offense, State has more potential firepower from their top six than we do. It doesn't mean it will happen, but I don't see State looking past this game or not being "up" for the game. Wood takes extra attention. Leslie and Brown can create their own shots. Howell (and all Howell-type players) always give Mason fits on the low post. The freshmen, Warren and Purvis, are capable of big games - certainly not guaranteed. Our defense will have to play tough - and we are missing a key component who cannot be replaced.

On defense, State has shown weakness, but I do expect them to play with more passion and fire than they have in any game this season. Our offense could be just fine - or we could be dreadful. No Ryan throws many things out of whack. Ryan was willing to take (and make) the 15 footer and the 3 pointer that actually "stretched" the defense. His able replacements (Josh, Amile, Alex) will all get those same opportunities, but will not likely take (or make) them. That makes us easier to guard. There will be more scoring pressure on Quin, Seth, Rasheed, even Tyler. Not that it can't be done.

Predictions:

State wins (75%)

Close for a few minutes, then State takes a six-eight point lead. Mason has two fouls. We scrap it out, but enter halftime down eight -ten. Our defense is adequate, but they get some low post points, some expected and unexpected three pointers (Wood, Brown, Purvis), a few fast breaks, and ten second chance points (Howell, Leslie, Warren). Second half, both teams tire with short benches, but Duke never has enough firepower to get over that early deficit. State wins, 73-65.

Duke wins (25%)

State is over pumped to start the game. Both offenses start slowly, but Duke's lineup produces a couple fast breaks and Seth hits two early threes. By midway through the half, it is a dog fight, with Duke maintaining a tenuous 2-4 point lead. Duke ends up leading 34-32 at the half (the three freshmen have contributed eight points to this). In the second half, the scrap continues, but Duke rides the free throw line to stay in front. We weather two runs - one started by a Wood three, the other by a Leslie dunk. Mason has a hard-fought double-double, Tyler has two threes, Seth goes for 19, and the freshmen combine for 15. Final is Duke, 68-65.

With Ryan in the lineup, I would have picked up 75% to 80%. His absence impacts us offensively and defensively - maybe swinging the game ten points or more. On the road - too much to overcome.
Really?? 75%. Do u guys think the team is scared or something. Lets be a little more honest here, as hot as Ryan has been playing over the last month, he didn't exactly take over in the UK, OSU, MINN, or UL games, I do seem to remember Mr Curry doing some significant amount of damage. Don't discount what Seth can do. He has an amazing amount of BB IQ. Even though I am not a fan if his, Dean used to say you never wanted to play a team the game after they lose a player, because the players come together and fight for their lives in that game. Maybe we win, or Maybe we lose, but giving State a 75% edge may be over estimating their potential. I really look for K to get Sheed going early, because he finds his shot again, with his ability to drive they aren't going to be able to double Mason. I think that is one of the reasons Ryan has placed so well the last month, because he didn't have a choice. Sheed has been in a slump, we all know it. If he gets loose on Sat the dynamic changes dramatically. I really think Mr Murphy is gonna have something to say as well. This is his shot, and even though he is deficient in defending, he is just as talented as anyone on that team if the scoring dept. I really believe this team is much more equipped this year to handle injuries than last year. Last year they had played almost an entire year together when Ryan got hurt, hard to change much at that point.

jcastranio
01-10-2013, 09:25 AM
Really?? 75%. Do u guys think the team is scared or something. Lets be a little more honest here, as hot as Ryan has been playing over the last month, he didn't exactly take over in the UK, OSU, MINN, or UL games, I do seem to remember Mr Curry doing some significant amount of damage. Don't discount what Seth can do. He has an amazing amount of BB IQ. Even though I am not a fan if his, Dean used to say you never wanted to play a team the game after they lose a player, because the players come together and fight for their lives in that game. Maybe we win, or Maybe we lose, but giving State a 75% edge may be over estimating their potential. I really look for K to get Sheed going early, because he finds his shot again, with his ability to drive they aren't going to be able to double Mason. I think that is one of the reasons Ryan has placed so well the last month, because he didn't have a choice. Sheed has been in a slump, we all know it. If he gets loose on Sat the dynamic changes dramatically. I really think Mr Murphy is gonna have something to say as well. This is his shot, and even though he is deficient in defending, he is just as talented as anyone on that team if the scoring dept. I really believe this team is much more equipped this year to handle injuries than last year. Last year they had played almost an entire year together when Ryan got hurt, hard to change much at that point.

I agree with your points and I don't think the team is scared. I am not over-estimating State. I just point out that our advantages this year thus far has been our experience (3 seniors), our accurate three point shooting, our team defense, etc. Ryan being out has a huge impact on all of those. It is our first road game of the season - against a top 25 team who has been pointing to this game for a month. I think that playing a high level of basketball can turn on many seemingly minor factors - and this is not a minor factor. Also, State is hungry - hungry like they were not early in the season - they will play their best game of the season. So, 75%? Really.

jipops
01-10-2013, 09:45 AM
Losing Ryan is a big blow as he along with Quinn have contributed mightily to our recent wins.

We still will have offensive threats with Quinn, Seth and Rasheed (if he can step it back up to where he was).

In my opinion, Mason can be limited significantly by the opponents defense as he has the dunk game and will get to the free throw line. As much as I like Mason, he still has no drop step move and doesn't seem to have touch on any short range jumpers. Even his hook often is flat and more thrown in than arced in with touch. He still is a defensive and rebounding presence and will be needed in the game for close to 40 minutes.

How is Kelly to be replaced? I believe it will be a combination of Alex and Amile. Alex could blossom as a scorer since his shot range is versatile and he has the athleticism to get to the basket. Amile is a different kind of player who has shown a furious approach that might result in both defense and scoring. The best mix would be to have both of them get significant PT in the game sharing Ryan's time. Time now to see what they can do.

I disagree with the first part of the bolded statement. Mason has shown an excellent drop step move this season as well as an up-and-under. The 2nd part is correct, he really doesn't have any kind of short range jumper in his game. The problem is he tends to not get set close enough to the basket. This can also be a product of being there for a lot of screen and rolls.

I think if we can speed the game up using Quinn and Rasheed to dictate a quick tempo, Mason will benefit. Since State doesn't force a lot of turnovers that may work in our favor.

That being said, I still see us having a tough time in this one. Their perimeter guys are much bigger and could present a lot of problems for us.

UrinalCake
01-10-2013, 12:55 PM
While I love the thought of Marshall jumping in and tearing it up alongside his brother, I think it is far more likely that Josh starts and plays 25-ish minutes. He has by far the most experience among the bench bigs, and that is tremendously important in a game like this on your opponent's home court. Offensively mason is going to get double and triple teamed so he's going to need to pass well and other guys need to hit their shots. I hope he's over whatever illness he seems to have had lately because if he gets into foul trouble or disappears on offense then we'll have to resort to chucking up threes.

Looking forward to a great game and a great atmosphere, whatever the result.

-bdbd
01-10-2013, 01:17 PM
Factors:

NC State "revenge" factor from last year
First game without Ryan, only three days to adjust
First road game of the season
Freshmen factor - Warren/Purvis vs Rasheed/Alex/Amile - who wins this?

There are scenarios where Duke grinds out an impressive win in a close game. It would take strong defense and big games from Curry and Cook. I think there are more scenarios - given the factors listed above - that State comes away with a win.

On offense, State has more potential firepower from their top six than we do. It doesn't mean it will happen, but I don't see State looking past this game or not being "up" for the game. Wood takes extra attention. Leslie and Brown can create their own shots. Howell (and all Howell-type players) always give Mason fits on the low post. The freshmen, Warren and Purvis, are capable of big games - certainly not guaranteed. Our defense will have to play tough - and we are missing a key component who cannot be replaced.

On defense, State has shown weakness, but I do expect them to play with more passion and fire than they have in any game this season. Our offense could be just fine - or we could be dreadful. No Ryan throws many things out of whack. Ryan was willing to take (and make) the 15 footer and the 3 pointer that actually "stretched" the defense. His able replacements (Josh, Amile, Alex) will all get those same opportunities, but will not likely take (or make) them. That makes us easier to guard. There will be more scoring pressure on Quin, Seth, Rasheed, even Tyler. Not that it can't be done.

Predictions:

State wins (75%)

Close for a few minutes, then State takes a six-eight point lead. Mason has two fouls. We scrap it out, but enter halftime down eight -ten. Our defense is adequate, but they get some low post points, some expected and unexpected three pointers (Wood, Brown, Purvis), a few fast breaks, and ten second chance points (Howell, Leslie, Warren). Second half, both teams tire with short benches, but Duke never has enough firepower to get over that early deficit. State wins, 73-65.

Duke wins (25%)

State is over pumped to start the game. Both offenses start slowly, but Duke's lineup produces a couple fast breaks and Seth hits two early threes. By midway through the half, it is a dog fight, with Duke maintaining a tenuous 2-4 point lead. Duke ends up leading 34-32 at the half (the three freshmen have contributed eight points to this). In the second half, the scrap continues, but Duke rides the free throw line to stay in front. We weather two runs - one started by a Wood three, the other by a Leslie dunk. Mason has a hard-fought double-double, Tyler has two threes, Seth goes for 19, and the freshmen combine for 15. Final is Duke, 68-65.

With Ryan in the lineup, I would have picked up 75% to 80%. His absence impacts us offensively and defensively - maybe swinging the game ten points or more. On the road - too much to overcome.

I agree with a 25/75 split on the odds for this one. I just have the sense that it "means" more to State than to Duke. To wit:
- Playing in front of their home crowd.
- Revenge for last year's huge Duke comeback (which many of their fans still blame on the refs).
- Perceived lack of respect in the Triangle area for State BB, and in the polls. I expect their coaches to be selling this as a huge OPPORTUNITY to move up in the polls, and gain a signature win for March madness consideration.
- Duke learning to live w/o Ryan, and so we won't be as strong defensively, and Mason will get a lot of attention inside from them.

One thing I am particulary concerned about w/o Ryan will be inbounds plays. I expect State to really attack/press when Duke is inbounding. As we saw vs. Clemson, w/o Ryan to inbound the ball, Duke is at least vulnerable. Expect NCSU to go after that aggressively.

Sure hope one-two of the depth guys - Hairston, AJ (that's who I'm looking to the most), Murphy (another strong candidate, ready to break out), MP3 - steps up and has a stellar game.

davekay1971
01-10-2013, 01:22 PM
Some State fans I know are salivating at the prospect of getting Amile in the building.

Well, now that Ryan's out for the game, I hope Amile is salivating at that prospect as well. Amile seems like a great kid, but sometimes you want your hoops players to have a nasty streak and respond to negative fans (ie: the State fans lustily booing him for choosing Duke over their school) by stomping their hearts into the dirt. I'd love to see Amile get his minutes, and play with all that great energy we've come to enjoy in him, defend Leslie well when he's on him, grab boards, and make a few crucial baskets, and walk out the RBC with a win.

Bob Green
01-10-2013, 01:39 PM
Is there any chance we see a line-up at some point during the game, which includes both Mason and Marshall Plumlee?

My initial reaction is no way! The reason I doubt we see this is there is too much risk in both players ending up in foul trouble. This is especially true in tonight's game with N.C. State. Richard Howell is really strong and will push Marshall around down low, while C.J. Leslie is too quick for Mason. Both Plumlees would be susceptible to picking up cheap fouls. Of course the opposite is equally true. The foul prone Wolfpack, and their thin bench, could be the ones who end up picking up the cheap fouls.

However, I'm intrigued by the possibility of seeing Marshall in the low post with Mason sliding to Ryan Kelly's high post position. Coach K will take an innovative approach to the Ryan Kelly injury so I will not be shocked when he throws a line-up on the court that catches us all by surprise.

jimrowe0
01-10-2013, 02:03 PM
I agree with a 25/75 split on the odds for this one. I just have the sense that it "means" more to State than to Duke. To wit:
- Playing in front of their home crowd.
- Revenge for last year's huge Duke comeback (which many of their fans still blame on the refs).
- Perceived lack of respect in the Triangle area for State BB, and in the polls. I expect their coaches to be selling this as a huge OPPORTUNITY to move up in the polls, and gain a signature win for March madness consideration.
- Duke learning to live w/o Ryan, and so we won't be as strong defensively, and Mason will get a lot of attention inside from them.

One thing I am particulary concerned about w/o Ryan will be inbounds plays. I expect State to really attack/press when Duke is inbounding. As we saw vs. Clemson, w/o Ryan to inbound the ball, Duke is at least vulnerable. Expect NCSU to go after that aggressively.

Sure hope one-two of the depth guys - Hairston, AJ (that's who I'm looking to the most), Murphy (another strong candidate, ready to break out), MP3 - steps up and has a stellar game.


I'll have to disagree; it’s more like 75/25 Duke. People are acting crazy since Ryan went down. The State team will be pumped up, but I trust K has a good game plan in place. Remember this is the NC state team that got pounded by Oklahoma St., barely escaped App St., should have lost to UConn, barely beat BC. They are a huge defensive liability and are streaky shooters at best.

The keys will be.

1. Keep State out of the paint/make them shoot jump shots
2. Get Howell/Leslie in foul trouble (getting one of them in foul trouble should be enough)
3. Don't let them get offensive rebounds

Duke is a far superior defense team, even without Ryan. I expect our defense will give State issues. I expect we will likely put Mason on Leslie on the defensive end because Leslie tends to be frustrated by longer defenders. We will keep someone on Scott Woods’s hip; let’s face it Scott Wood can't shoot if someone is in his face. I believe Sheed might get the match up with Brown on the defensive end in order to limit his penetration.

Mason will need to step up on the offensive end, especially since we will want to go after Howell and Leslie early (both plagued by foul trouble). Sheed will need to get back to his early season form. Quinn is playing well and should have a good game against a weak perimeter defense of State. Seth should see plenty of shots as well, especially coming off of screens. Alex should see a good portion of minutes, because I believe Josh isn't built for expended minutes and his tendency to foul.

We should win the game even without Kelly, with Kelly we shouldn't have lost...period.

If we limit points in the paint and don't allow offensive rebounds, we walk out with a win. In K we trust.

UrinalCake
01-10-2013, 02:08 PM
I would love to see the Plumlees together as I think mason is a more natural 4. As you said, State has to worry Bout foul trouble too and Howell in particular is a guy who picks them up at a fast rate. It's also possible that Coach K goes the other direction and puts out a small lineup of Quinn, Tyler, Seth, and Rasheed plus mason. I suspect he'll try a lot of different things. We have a short time to prepare, but State also has little time to prepare for us and they really have no idea how what we're going to do.

Kedsy
01-10-2013, 02:21 PM
Duke is a far superior defense team, even without Ryan.

Look, I think we'll be fine without Ryan, at least in the short term. I believe the sky-is-falling people are completely overreacting. On the other hand, since Ryan has been playing 70% of our minutes, I'm not sure you can know either way what Duke's defense is going to look like or how good it's going to be in a game where Ryan doesn't play at all. Ryan was playing both great individual defense this season and great team defense. I don't think any of our bench players can replace that adequately. I don't know how "superior" our defense is going to be. I don't think anybody else knows, either.


I expect we will likely put Mason on Leslie on the defensive end because Leslie tends to be frustrated by longer defenders.

You really expect this? I don't. Who would guard Howell? Josh? Amile?


I believe Sheed might get the match up with Brown on the defensive end in order to limit his penetration.

I agree this would seem like a sensible move.


let’s face it Scott Wood can't shoot if someone is in his face.

I don't watch enough of State to say with any certainty, but when I've seen him, Wood seems to have a pretty quick release. So I don't know how easy it's going to be to shut him down. Especially if Rasheed guards Brown (as you hypothesize above), Wood's going to be guarded by someone 4 to 6 inches shorter than he is. There's a good chance he can just shoot over them. Stopping him isn't going to be as easy as you seem to suggest.


We should win the game even without Kelly, with Kelly we shouldn't have lost...period.

At State is always a tough game. I remember the 2010 game there when everyone said there was no way we could lose.

Again, I don't think we're doomed the way some have said. We have a decent chance to win the game. But State has a pretty good chance, too. Whoever plays harder and stays out of foul trouble will have the upper hand, provided one team or the other doesn't go crazy and shoot 80% or something like that. I'd say it's no better than a toss up, but that's pretty good for a road game against a top 20 team.

Matches
01-10-2013, 02:22 PM
Remember this is the NC state team that got pounded by Oklahoma St., barely escaped App St., should have lost to UConn, barely beat BC. They are a huge defensive liability and are streaky shooters at best.


While all you say is true, I don't think we'll be seeing *that* State team. As is often the case when teams play us, I expect them to step up their game significantly. Not saying we'll win or we'll lose - but I'll be very surprised if the team we see Saturday has much in common with the one that played App St.

jimrowe0
01-10-2013, 03:05 PM
You really expect this? I don't. Who would guard Howell? Josh? Amile?

Yes I believe this is a better option. Howell isn't as much of a offensive threat, so we throw Josh, Alex, Amile at him. He's a banger, so we need our guys to bang back. Hes only shooting about 60% from the charity stripe (so is Leslie), lets put him on the line. We need to limit Leslie and longer defenders have always given him issues.


We with Wood, we are going to have to give up some size. I have watched Wood enough and he has trouble when someone stays on him. We are going to give up some size, but I believe it worth giving up. He can hit them, but he struggles when someone guards him closely. I doubt he is planning on going into the post at all to use his size. I'll give Scott Wood a height advantage as long as someone is hounding him.

We need to keep Brown out of the driving lanes. I believe him and Leslie are the ones that can do the most damage, so they should get the toughest defensive players to offset them.

So I guess I see

Mason on Leslie (bothered by length)
Josh/Alex/Amile on Howell (keep him off the boards)
Seth on Wood (stay in his face)
Quinn on Purvis (try to speed him up)
Sheed on Brown (keep him out of the driving lanes)

That just how I see it, but I could certainly see Mason on Howell with Josh/Alex/Amile on Leslie. However, I think Leslie with blow by Josh (not laterally quick). Alex has the best chance out of that group, since Amile is also lacking quickness (but he doesn't have extra length). Looking at the options, I would rather have Mason on Leslie since his offensive production is much more important to NC Stae.


At State is always a tough game. I remember the 2010 game there when everyone said there was no way we could lose.


I agree, I was at that game...

-bdbd
01-10-2013, 03:08 PM
I'll have to disagree; it’s more like 75/25 Duke. People are acting crazy since Ryan went down. The State team will be pumped up, but I trust K has a good game plan in place. Remember this is the NC state team that got pounded by Oklahoma St., barely escaped App St., should have lost to UConn, barely beat BC. They are a huge defensive liability and are streaky shooters at best.

The keys will be.

1. Keep State out of the paint/make them shoot jump shots
2. Get Howell/Leslie in foul trouble (getting one of them in foul trouble should be enough)
3. Don't let them get offensive rebounds

Duke is a far superior defense team, even without Ryan. I expect our defense will give State issues. I expect we will likely put Mason on Leslie on the defensive end because Leslie tends to be frustrated by longer defenders. We will keep someone on Scott Woods’s hip; let’s face it Scott Wood can't shoot if someone is in his face. I believe Sheed might get the match up with Brown on the defensive end in order to limit his penetration.

Mason will need to step up on the offensive end, especially since we will want to go after Howell and Leslie early (both plagued by foul trouble). Sheed will need to get back to his early season form. Quinn is playing well and should have a good game against a weak perimeter defense of State. Seth should see plenty of shots as well, especially coming off of screens. Alex should see a good portion of minutes, because I believe Josh isn't built for expended minutes and his tendency to foul.

We should win the game even without Kelly, with Kelly we shouldn't have lost...period.

If we limit points in the paint and don't allow offensive rebounds, we walk out with a win. In K we trust.

Fair enough. I might amend to say (remember I was just piggy-backing JCASTRNIO) that I'd probably say, maybe 60/40 odds for State.

I think most on here will vouch that I tend to be a "glass is half FULL" sort of poster, but as Kedsey was saying, we really don't know what our team defense will be like w/o our, arguably, best defender in there. And I have been, maybe, the President of the Ryan Kelly fan club, and as such have long praised his "little things" that made the rest of the team look a lot better, such as court awareness and anticipating opponent ball movement, flexibility inside/outside, our main inbounder, help defense, and great motor, to say nothing of his obvious shooting strengths.

I agree with the posters saying that K will likely spend time in the first half experimenting with combinations of players, and maybe "settle" on one or two for most of the second half. This harkens back to twelve (?) years ago when Boozer went down and K, really out of the blue, changed the style of play and inserted a relatively little-used (to that point) fast/agile Casey Sanders at Center. In that vein, maybe playing the two Plumlees together would really throw off State - it certainly would seem to help us more with our rebounding issues - and give us tremendous size inside. I also like Murphy, but see him more as SF as well, so would think, if you just wanted to "replace RK and then just keep going with status quo strategies", then a combination of Josh Hairston and AJ would work best to sub in for RK.

I am genuinely excited with anticipation for how K will adjust our strategy/style and rotation with RK out. We have lots of tremendous parts to work with who certainly have the ABILITY to step up in expanded roles. But, while we inherently look at things from blue-colored perspective, looking a lot at all of our (many) positives, please keep in mind that we DO have a number of vulnerabilities going into this one too:
- First true road game, and with several Frosh playing major minutes in it now. Can our upperclassmen help them to keep it together?
- Best defender (and TEAM defender) and "intagibles" guy is now out.
- An up/down State team that is capable of losing to an OK State, will obviously be much more focused for this one, hungry for revenge and in front of motivated (chip on their collective shoulders) fans.
- Who can guard Leslie?
- Who handles our inbounds passes now, especially since State will likely press on them a lot more than they would have?


This is the sort of strategic tweaking opportunity that I think K just revels in. He's the best. So let's see what he and the guys can come up with... Go Duke!! :D

Big Pappa
01-10-2013, 03:21 PM
Yes I believe this is a better option. Howell isn't as much of a offensive threat, so we throw Josh, Alex, Amile at him. He's a banger, so we need our guys to bang back. Hes only shooting about 60% from the charity stripe (so is Leslie), lets put him on the line. We need to limit Lesle and longer defenders have always giving him issues.

I don't understand how you can call someone who averages 12.7ppg (62.7FG% and 61.4FT%) on and who has scored over 15 in 40% of his games this year "not an offensive threat." Howell is a good player and a very capable offensive threat.

Kedsy
01-10-2013, 03:36 PM
Howell isn't as much of a offensive threat, so we throw Josh, Alex, Amile at him.

Howell's offensive rating is 125.3, which is significantly better than Leslie's 106.1. Mason's oRating, in comparison is only 114.3. In fact, Howell's oRating is a lot better than anyone on Duke's team except (you guessed it) Ryan Kelly (126.8). Not only that, but Howell is usually doing it against taller players. My guess is he would completely dominate smaller players like Josh, Amile, and Alex.

Moreover, why do you think Mason could stay in front of Leslie on the drive? As far as I know, Mason hasn't shown any great ability to contain athletic and mobile PFs. Leslie may be bothered by length, but except on switches I can't imagine Mason will be the one guarding him Saturday afternoon.

jv001
01-10-2013, 03:44 PM
While trying to figure out who will take Ryans minutes, I thought about how Amile, Alex and Marshall will react to the pro
Wolfpack crowd. This might tip the scales for Josh to get major minutes. He has played the most minutes off the bench after our top 6 guys in our rotation. I don't see Josh letting the crowd bother him that much. Just a thought.
GoDuke!

newclasspack
01-10-2013, 05:47 PM
Hey guys Pack fan here. I actually grew up actually being pretty indifferent to duke, all of my hate is pretty much reserved for UNC with leftovers for maryland.

I'm came in here because i just wanna go to the most sensible and level headed place i can find before each game (except Carolina not gonna happen) and just talk to the fans about the game. First road Game or not you guys have beat some Heavy hitters. Mason is playing like i always though he could and should. Quinn is about on par to where i thought he should as a sophomore. Curry and Kelly have been a surprise unfortunately Kelly did get that injury. My thoughts:

Leslie and Plumlee has a Rivalry ongoing since High school and going into college Plumlee has the edge.

Leslie was gonna have his hands fulls with Kelly but like wise with Kelly. now that he doesn't have to guard the perimeter Leslie is gonna have a distinct advantage. Just being quicker than anyone you guys can plug in there and them not being able to equalize it with a three.

Mason and Howell with be the second match up of the night IMO. Mason was always a Lottery Pick in my Eyes and was the most athletic white guy i've seen in a while. Howell is a Man. and a Banger. He's listed as 6'8" in truth he's closer to 6'6.5 But he plays big every game. This one might be dead even just due to once again Kelly not spacing people out and Mason's tracker record versus bangers.

Wood and Rasheed. One defense basically Rasheed is gonna be playing Shadow. and while he's gonna probably shut wood down he'll be unable to help EVER. If wood can force rasheed to drive. idc he he scores on us.

Quinn and Lorenzo is the match up of the night. To me Quinn is the second best (barely beating our Green from VT) pg in the ACC. Brown is 6'5'' Long and gets in the lane at will he also leads the ACC in steals and assists. Here is why Quinn is going to lose this match up. Brown is just as quick if not quicker. But more importantly Quinn is 19 going on 20. Brown is 22. He's a man and has been playing like it lately. This is By far Quinn's toughest mach up. Brown didn't respect Marcus Smart and got burnt for it. He's not making that mistake with Cook. Brown is the key to us winning this game.

Now Brown will not be guarding Cook. Purvis will. i'll give the slight edge to cook in that due to that experience i was talking about earlier. Brown needs to guard curry. I love purvis he's a great kid and loves to play the game and is intense for 40 minutes. that being said curry is too crafty as a senior.. and too good as a shooter he'll burn purvis all night. wood is a much better match up as long as he's gambles less and plays focused D more.

Then we have TJ Warren. We don't have to run plays for him. We don't have to set picks for him. He just scores. He's gonna be too big for you guards and too quick for any forward you have coming off the bench the only person i feel who could comfortably guard him would be Kelly. the last time he had bad scoring night game back the next game and scored 16 and 21 in the next two games. And its not one particular thing he does to score. it can be putbacks floaters 3s breakaways. He just scores. and he's been rebounding better as of late.. i feel like he's def. our x factor.

Overall as a home game i give us an edge. Duke has a bench But K isn't gonna throw bodies at us at the sake of throwing bodies i say he goes no deeper than 8 and we use the home court to pull out a win.

Bob Green
01-10-2013, 06:31 PM
Howell isn't as much of a offensive threat...

Howell averages 12.7 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. He has 49 offensive rebounds in 15 games, which is more than three per game. If a team doesn't D-up on Howell, he will burn them.

CDu
01-10-2013, 06:48 PM
Howell averages 12.7 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. He has 49 offensive rebounds in 15 games, which is more than three per game. If a team doesn't D-up on Howell, he will burn them.

Yeah, Howell is actually a very effective offensive player. Perhaps the least effective offensive player for NC State is Leslie, who is their most athletic/dangerous player. When he's tuned in, he's a freak. But he has a bad habit of getting out of control at times, and has questionable shot selection. Other than that, Brown has turnover problems and can shoot poorly (at times) from deep. But everyone else is extremely efficient. Wood and Purvis both shoot 45% from the field and 40+% from 3pt range. TJ Warren shoots over 60% from the field and has hit over half his 3s (averaging 1 attempt per game).

It's interesting and perhaps not all that surprising that State's two least efficient offensive players are the two that take the most shots. They are asked to create the offense, while those other guys are able to carve out their niche roles as scorers. And it's not like Brown and Leslie are inefficient players. Far from it.

I think our chances of winning lie probably in one of three areas:
1. Outscoring NC State in a shootout. As good as they are offensively (they're probably better than us offensively without Kelly), they have been terrible defensively. Of course, they are certainly capable of defending well. They just haven't done it this year. It is very possible that the defense shows up against us unlike in previous games for them. But if not, we may be able to score 90 against them and win.
2. Getting State in foul trouble. State has only two useful post defenders: Howell and Leslie. If they get in foul trouble, they have only Warren (more SF than PF) and Vandenburg (think early-years Zoubek, minus the polish) inside. When Howell and Leslie stay out of foul trouble, State is fine. But those guys have a long history of getting in foul trouble. And doing so against us is a recipe for disaster (even without Kelly).
3. Contain Wood, make everyone else a jumpshooter, and force turnovers from Brown. If we do that, maybe the Pack have an off-night shooting. If they do, they could easily lose their composure in a game they'll undoubtedly be fired up for.

cptnflash
01-10-2013, 08:05 PM
I think our chances of winning lie probably in one of three areas:
1. Outscoring NC State in a shootout. As good as they are offensively (they're probably better than us offensively without Kelly), they have been terrible defensively. Of course, they are certainly capable of defending well. They just haven't done it this year. It is very possible that the defense shows up against us unlike in previous games for them. But if not, we may be able to score 90 against them and win.
2. Getting State in foul trouble. State has only two useful post defenders: Howell and Leslie. If they get in foul trouble, they have only Warren (more SF than PF) and Vandenburg (think early-years Zoubek, minus the polish) inside. When Howell and Leslie stay out of foul trouble, State is fine. But those guys have a long history of getting in foul trouble. And doing so against us is a recipe for disaster (even without Kelly).
3. Contain Wood, make everyone else a jumpshooter, and force turnovers from Brown. If we do that, maybe the Pack have an off-night shooting. If they do, they could easily lose their composure in a game they'll undoubtedly be fired up for.

Totally agree. At the risk of oversimplifying, I would go so far as to say that the dominant strategy is to keep Wood off the 3-point line and get Howell in foul trouble. Do those two things, and even if you screw up a lot of other stuff, you'll probably beat NC State. Unfortunately both have become harder to do this year. Wood continues to get better at moving without the ball and working off screens (like Seth), and Howell has lowered his foul rate this year (like Mason, although not to the same extent).

Kedsy
01-10-2013, 08:45 PM
Overall as a home game i give us an edge.

I think your analysis is reasonable. As others have said, if we can keep Wood under control and get Howell and/or Leslie in foul trouble, we have a good chance to win. If we don't do those things, you may have the edge.

I'm not sure Quinn will guard Brown, either, we'll have to wait and see. If Rasheed guards Brown and Quinn guards Purvis, then the potential advantage you mentioned may evaporate.

Obviously the biggest wild card is how Duke will react to the loss of Ryan Kelly. Despite pages and pages of discussion, I don't think anybody really knows how that's going to end up. We'll just have to wait and see.

Ultimately, the team that plays harder and minimizes their mistakes will probably win.

UrinalCake
01-10-2013, 08:46 PM
Newclasspack - welcome to the board and thanks for the excellent rundown. You definitely know your stuff and I agree with your assessments of the Duke players. I do think Cook is a little ahead of what I expected, more so in thr intsngibles than his raw numbers. Agree that Brown is really key for you, I feel like throughout his career he's been kind of overshadowed by Harrow and then Purvis, but he's legit and a tough matchup with that size and length.

I haven't seen State play a lot but I feel like Wood can be exploited on defense. Is this a reasonable statement? Curry is not super fast but the last time we played was one of the few times he actually had a quickness advantage and was able to drive past Wood for layups several times.

I think it will be a great game. Getting off to a good start will be another key for us as we don't want to let the crowd get going.

newclasspack
01-10-2013, 09:19 PM
Newclasspack - welcome to the board and thanks for the excellent rundown. You definitely know your stuff and I agree with your assessments of the Duke players. I do think Cook is a little ahead of what I expected, more so in thr intsngibles than his raw numbers. Agree that Brown is really key for you, I feel like throughout his career he's been kind of overshadowed by Harrow and then Purvis, but he's legit and a tough matchup with that size and length.

I haven't seen State play a lot but I feel like Wood can be exploited on defense. Is this a reasonable statement? Curry is not super fast but the last time we played was one of the few times he actually had a quickness advantage and was able to drive past Wood for layups several times.

I think it will be a great game. Getting off to a good start will be another key for us as we don't want to let the crowd get going.I've followed Cook since Oak hill. he's soooo smooth and a pure point. Last year was so weird for you guys and you were so overloaded in the back court the K went with his best two Curry and Rivers unfortunately Rivers dis jointed play so much because he was such and Iso only guy and with cook coming off injury you guys didn't really have a true point last year. i feel like Brown and Purvis stopping cook and curry is key to chopping the head off the Monster.

UrinalCake
01-10-2013, 11:24 PM
i feel like Brown and Purvis stopping cook and curry is key to chopping the head off the Monster.

If we start the expected lineup of Cook, Curry, Sulaimon, Hairston/Murphy/Jefferson/Plumlee, and Plumlee, then I expect Mason to be doubled every time he touches the ball. There's no reason not to play off of the other big, at least until he proves he can hit a shot. So I don't think Mason is going to score a ton this game. Hopefully for our sake he passes well, finds the open made, and capitalizes on the opportunities he gets, but I feel like Wake and Clemson were both able to contain him and force others to beat them. It didn't work as they both lost handily, but a.) We don't have Kelly and b.) NC State is much more talented. Sulaimon is capable of scoring 30 but has been in a bit of a shooting slump lately. So yeah, that leaves Cook and Curry as the primary scorers. If your guards are able to defend them straight up and contain their scoring, especially the three pointers, then there's a really good chance you'll win.

Historically speaking I feel like Duke hasn't shot very well in the RBC Center (or whatever it's called now). I have zero evidence to back this up, just a gut feeling from watching most of the games from the past several years.

newclasspack
01-10-2013, 11:31 PM
If we start the expected lineup of Cook, Curry, Sulaimon, Hairston/Murphy/Jefferson/Plumlee, and Plumlee, then I expect Mason to be doubled every time he touches the ball. There's no reason not to play off of the other big, at least until he proves he can hit a shot. So I don't think Mason is going to score a ton this game. Hopefully for our sake he passes well, finds the open made, and capitalizes on the opportunities he gets, but I feel like Wake and Clemson were both able to contain him and force others to beat them. It didn't work as they both lost handily, but a.) We don't have Kelly and b.) NC State is much more talented. Sulaimon is capable of scoring 30 but has been in a bit of a shooting slump lately. So yeah, that leaves Cook and Curry as the primary scorers. If your guards are able to defend them straight up and contain their scoring, especially the three pointers, then there's a really good chance you'll win.

Historically speaking I feel like Duke hasn't shot very well in the RBC Center (or whatever it's called now). I have zero evidence to back this up, just a gut feeling from watching most of the games from the past several years.Last year people shot like 70 % in the rbc (now the PNC formally the ESA) from three. it was ridiculous. it still feels that way sometime but we are holding teams to under 40% shooting from the field which is why i giggle when we are labelled as "terrible defensively" Do we have lapses? yes of course but also its hard to shoot 53% and lead the nation and not give something up. we leak out constantly now we can always play better half court D but i always think our D is gonna lag behind our O just because of the nature of our O game.

I feel like Sulaimon is Duke's X-factor this Game. Wood is on him and why wood has a height advantage (6'7-6'4) I feel Rasheed is you guys best perimeter Defender. Wood is Long and has above average athleticism and has stepped up on D this year. If he can Turn Rasheed into a driver and two point shooter that helps tremendously in trying to contain the 3 probably our biggest defensive weakness.

Saratoga2
01-11-2013, 06:35 AM
With Ryan out indefinitely and surely for the NC State game, where will we get our points? Will that put pressure on our defense to hold teams to low scoring totals?

Like others, I expect Mason to be doubled a lot. Since his game still consists mainly of dunks and foul shots, I expect him to be held in the 10 point range. His foul shooting seems to have regressed slightly so that makes 10 sound good.

A bright spot has been Quinn, although he is a young player in an away game and will certainly get a lot of defensive attention. I still think an expectation of 15 is reasonable.

I am hoping Seth is rested and is able to get his offensive game going. I look for 20 from Seth'

Its an away game and Rasheed has been held of late but he will probably get less defensive attention and may do more. I look for 12 from him.

Other typical players Tyler 5 and Josh 2.

That leaves our untested three of Alex, Amile and Marshall. I think Alex will get serious PT and he has a scoring mentality. I look for 8 from him and Amile 6 with possibly 4 from Marshall.

That would give us a reasonable expectation for 78 points, which is certainly enough to win. In my opinion, the sky is not falling for Duke with Ryan out, provided guys step up and do their thing.

oldguy
01-11-2013, 07:55 AM
I think we're going to see why CoachK has won almost 1000.

jcastranio
01-11-2013, 08:04 AM
It strikes me as I read the various predictions and analysis, that I have to factor in how we approach O and D from a team perspective.

On Defense, we don't really "match-up" with players, we switch, we help and recover, we rotate, we take charges, we play passing lanes. Ryan is well-skilled at this - long enough to disrupt passes and shots, as well as take charges. The question isn't whether we will be as good on the defensive end without him - we won't. The question is - what will be the extent of the drop-off? Josh brings some experience, but isn't as tall or long. Amile is tall and long, but doesn't bring the bulk or experience. Alex is a little in the middle of both of them. I think we can play well with any of them in the lineup, but it will be a drop off.

If K goes small - with four guards (I bet we see at least 15 minutes with this), we give up height and length but have the five players K is most confident in. (It is also our best shooting lineup).

On Offense, Mason will be the key. Not for his prodigious shooting skills - but for his decision-making. If they double, he must pass quickly and efficiently. If they don't double, he must get off an effective shot - the offensive rebounding will be weaker than normal on close in shots. He must avoid foul difficulty - no stupid fouls!

If Mason does his job, we will get shots. Will they be converted as efficiently as Ryan was converting? No.

I see Ryan's absence impacting the defense by 6-8 points and the offense by 6-8 points. That is what we have to mitigate. Can we do it? We will see Saturday. I stand by my prediction: State 75%-25%. I would love to be proven wrong.

David
01-11-2013, 08:16 AM
I think we're going to see why CoachK has won almost 1000.

This. Also, do we know that Gottfried is a good in-game coach? The guy can recruit (obviously) but I have not been impressed with State's execution and effort (especially on defense). The Duke game has a way of focusing teams but State has been really inconsistent to date.

David Bunkley
01-11-2013, 08:17 AM
Hey guys Pack fan here. I actually grew up actually being pretty indifferent to duke, all of my hate is pretty much reserved for UNC with leftovers for maryland.

I'm came in here because i just wanna go to the most sensible and level headed place i can find before each game (except Carolina not gonna happen) and just talk to the fans about the game. First road Game or not you guys have beat some Heavy hitters. Mason is playing like i always though he could and should. Quinn is about on par to where i thought he should as a sophomore. Curry and Kelly have been a surprise unfortunately Kelly did get that injury. My thoughts:

Leslie and Plumlee has a Rivalry ongoing since High school and going into college Plumlee has the edge.

Leslie was gonna have his hands fulls with Kelly but like wise with Kelly. now that he doesn't have to guard the perimeter Leslie is gonna have a distinct advantage. Just being quicker than anyone you guys can plug in there and them not being able to equalize it with a three.

Mason and Howell with be the second match up of the night IMO. Mason was always a Lottery Pick in my Eyes and was the most athletic white guy i've seen in a while. Howell is a Man. and a Banger. He's listed as 6'8" in truth he's closer to 6'6.5 But he plays big every game. This one might be dead even just due to once again Kelly not spacing people out and Mason's tracker record versus bangers.

Wood and Rasheed. One defense basically Rasheed is gonna be playing Shadow. and while he's gonna probably shut wood down he'll be unable to help EVER. If wood can force rasheed to drive. idc he he scores on us.

Quinn and Lorenzo is the match up of the night. To me Quinn is the second best (barely beating our Green from VT) pg in the ACC. Brown is 6'5'' Long and gets in the lane at will he also leads the ACC in steals and assists. Here is why Quinn is going to lose this match up. Brown is just as quick if not quicker. But more importantly Quinn is 19 going on 20. Brown is 22. He's a man and has been playing like it lately. This is By far Quinn's toughest mach up. Brown didn't respect Marcus Smart and got burnt for it. He's not making that mistake with Cook. Brown is the key to us winning this game.

Now Brown will not be guarding Cook. Purvis will. i'll give the slight edge to cook in that due to that experience i was talking about earlier. Brown needs to guard curry. I love purvis he's a great kid and loves to play the game and is intense for 40 minutes. that being said curry is too crafty as a senior.. and too good as a shooter he'll burn purvis all night. wood is a much better match up as long as he's gambles less and plays focused D more.

Then we have TJ Warren. We don't have to run plays for him. We don't have to set picks for him. He just scores. He's gonna be too big for you guards and too quick for any forward you have coming off the bench the only person i feel who could comfortably guard him would be Kelly. the last time he had bad scoring night game back the next game and scored 16 and 21 in the next two games. And its not one particular thing he does to score. it can be putbacks floaters 3s breakaways. He just scores. and he's been rebounding better as of late.. i feel like he's def. our x factor.

Overall as a home game i give us an edge. Duke has a bench But K isn't gonna throw bodies at us at the sake of throwing bodies i say he goes no deeper than 8 and we use the home court to pull out a win.

I find it odd that there is no mention of Seth Curry...maybe the Pack will forget about him, too?

Matches
01-11-2013, 09:17 AM
This. Also, do we know that Gottfried is a good in-game coach? The guy can recruit (obviously) but I have not been impressed with State's execution and effort (especially on defense). The Duke game has a way of focusing teams but State has been really inconsistent to date.

Still a relatively small sample size for him, but I was not impressed with his acumen during the game in Cameron last year. OK they blew a big lead, but the game was still VERY winnable for State in the closing moments, and it almost seemed they gave up once they got behind. Some of that's on the players of course, but I felt like a better operational coach could have gotten them back in the game for the last few minutes.

Bob Green
01-11-2013, 09:19 AM
..which is why i giggle when we are labelled as "terrible defensively"...

Ken Pomeroy ranks N.C. State at 167 in Adjusted Defense. Perhaps you shouldn't giggle too much.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE

sagegrouse
01-11-2013, 09:26 AM
Hey guys Pack fan here. I actually grew up actually being pretty indifferent to duke, all of my hate is pretty much reserved for UNC with leftovers for maryland.



Thanks for visiting the Board and putting up a thoughtful post. Welcome! -- sagegrouse

hillsborodevil
01-11-2013, 09:30 AM
I would love to see Mason use multiple pump fakes and get State into foul trouble, however, I worry about Mason's free throw percentage, especially as of late. IMO this is key for Duke Saturday. If Mason can hit FT's throughout conference play he should be awarded POTY.

CDu
01-11-2013, 09:52 AM
I would love to see Mason use multiple pump fakes and get State into foul trouble, however, I worry about Mason's free throw percentage, especially as of late. IMO this is key for Duke Saturday. If Mason can hit FT's throughout conference play he should be awarded POTY.

Yeah, since the Temple game, Mason is 22-42 from the line, shooting over 50% in only 2 of the 6 games (and both of those were 66.7%). I suspect/fear that the early season success from the line was a bit of a mirage. The form and arc was still pretty bad even though the shots were going in. Now, we're seeing those line drives rim out more often.

The good news is that he's generally seemed more polished offensively. Though even that has waned a bit over the past few games, as teams have made a more concerted effort to limit his offensive opportunities. In the past three games, he's averaged 10.3 ppg, 3 apg, and 4.3 tpg while shooting 50% from the field (and under 50% from the line). So his offense is clearly slumping at the moment.

Hopefully he can figure out how to get back on track offensively. We're going to need him to play well, especially with Kelly out. Unfortunately, I fear that Kelly's absence will have a negative effect on Mason's performance.

newclasspack
01-11-2013, 12:21 PM
Ken Pomeroy ranks N.C. State at 167 in Adjusted Defense. Perhaps you shouldn't giggle too much.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDEnumber don't tell the whole story. like i say our Defense is mainly a product of our offense and we are still holding teams to 40% from the field. and we have he conference steals leader. so terrible is a bit of an over statement.
I find it odd that there is no mention of Seth Curry...maybe the Pack will forget about him, too?
Paragraph 8

NCSWolf
01-11-2013, 01:04 PM
As a Wuffie, I just want to express my congrats for a great start to the season. I've been able to watch Duke play 4 or 5 times this year and you have earned your #1 ranking. Duke is the best team in the nation.
I expect the game tomorrow to be a terrific one. For NC State, I think the key is keeping Howell and Leslie in the game and not on the bench. Defensively, stopping the penetration into the paint by Duke guards that opens opportunities for them to score or pass out to the wings for 3 point shots or dink passes for easy baskets at the rim. Controlling the paint is a big key for State and pushing the transition game also a key.
For Duke, I think interupting Wolfpack transition game, rebounding and denying the easy passes to the wings and top of the key will be important. Kelly is a great player and not having him for this game will be a problem, but the bench will have to step up and the vets will have to do a little more. The talent for both is certainly there and K will figure it out. Plumlee will have to stay out of foul trouble as well.
In my opinion, while this game may not determine final outcome of the ACC regular season, I think it important for both teams. A road win against State puts Duke in the driver's seat in a conference that will not be very strong top to bottom. A W against Duke is a huge deal for State because we will be coming to your house later.
I'm an old guy, so I recall when NC State was a true factor in the conference and the nation in basketball. I'm hopeful that our program is heading back to relevance and I'm excited that we matter again. It's exciting. I love it.
I want us to be the best. To do that, you have to beat the best.

David Bunkley
01-11-2013, 01:25 PM
Paragraph 8

Good call. My bad.

DBFAN
01-11-2013, 01:39 PM
I would love to see Mason use multiple pump fakes and get State into foul trouble, however, I worry about Mason's free throw percentage, especially as of late. IMO this is key for Duke Saturday. If Mason can hit FT's throughout conference play he should be awarded POTY.

Like you I worry about his free throws, but one thing I have noticed in the last few games (especially Santa Clara) is that he hits them when it matters. I can't remember if it was Santa Clara or Cornell but he was shooting horrible in the first half, but at the end if the game when we needed to seperate from them he hit his last 8 in a row. Some guys are just like that, just need that little bit of pressure to concentrate.

Kedsy
01-11-2013, 02:05 PM
I'm an old guy, so I recall when NC State was a true factor in the conference and the nation in basketball. I'm hopeful that our program is heading back to relevance and I'm excited that we matter again. It's exciting. I love it.
I want us to be the best. To do that, you have to beat the best.

Thanks, and welcome. I'm also old enough to remember when State was a power. Personally, I like it that way and hope you guys can stay near the top.

UrinalCake
01-11-2013, 02:11 PM
Welcome NCSWolf. Wow, two level-headed and educated State fans in this thread, how awesome is that? I think most Duke fans are happy that State is getting back to being a factor in the conference and national picture. It's a lot of fun to have three top programs so close to each other so we mostly root for you guys when you're not playing us. I can't wait until tomorrow, it's going to be a great game.

millerecu
01-11-2013, 02:34 PM
Factors:

NC State "revenge" factor from last year
First game without Ryan, only three days to adjust
First road game of the season
Freshmen factor - Warren/Purvis vs Rasheed/Alex/Amile - who wins this?

There are scenarios where Duke grinds out an impressive win in a close game. It would take strong defense and big games from Curry and Cook. I think there are more scenarios - given the factors listed above - that State comes away with a win.

On offense, State has more potential firepower from their top six than we do. It doesn't mean it will happen, but I don't see State looking past this game or not being "up" for the game. Wood takes extra attention. Leslie and Brown can create their own shots. Howell (and all Howell-type players) always give Mason fits on the low post. The freshmen, Warren and Purvis, are capable of big games - certainly not guaranteed. Our defense will have to play tough - and we are missing a key component who cannot be replaced.

On defense, State has shown weakness, but I do expect them to play with more passion and fire than they have in any game this season. Our offense could be just fine - or we could be dreadful. No Ryan throws many things out of whack. Ryan was willing to take (and make) the 15 footer and the 3 pointer that actually "stretched" the defense. His able replacements (Josh, Amile, Alex) will all get those same opportunities, but will not likely take (or make) them. That makes us easier to guard. There will be more scoring pressure on Quin, Seth, Rasheed, even Tyler. Not that it can't be done.

Predictions:

State wins (75%)

Close for a few minutes, then State takes a six-eight point lead. Mason has two fouls. We scrap it out, but enter halftime down eight -ten. Our defense is adequate, but they get some low post points, some expected and unexpected three pointers (Wood, Brown, Purvis), a few fast breaks, and ten second chance points (Howell, Leslie, Warren). Second half, both teams tire with short benches, but Duke never has enough firepower to get over that early deficit. State wins, 73-65.

Duke wins (25%)

State is over pumped to start the game. Both offenses start slowly, but Duke's lineup produces a couple fast breaks and Seth hits two early threes. By midway through the half, it is a dog fight, with Duke maintaining a tenuous 2-4 point lead. Duke ends up leading 34-32 at the half (the three freshmen have contributed eight points to this). In the second half, the scrap continues, but Duke rides the free throw line to stay in front. We weather two runs - one started by a Wood three, the other by a Leslie dunk. Mason has a hard-fought double-double, Tyler has two threes, Seth goes for 19, and the freshmen combine for 15. Final is Duke, 68-65.

With Ryan in the lineup, I would have picked up 75% to 80%. His absence impacts us offensively and defensively - maybe swinging the game ten points or more. On the road - too much to overcome.

So I know NC State is on the "up swing" (even though we have heard that one before), but since 1990 Coach K is 39-6 against them. I think we have much better odds than 25%

newclasspack
01-11-2013, 02:43 PM
Welcome NCSWolf. Wow, two level-headed and educated State fans in this thread, how awesome is that? I think most Duke fans are happy that State is getting back to being a factor in the conference and national picture. It's a lot of fun to have three top programs so close to each other so we mostly root for you guys when you're not playing us. I can't wait until tomorrow, it's going to be a great game.
I wouldn't consider miami close persay but we are on the same coast so i guess i could see that

FerryFor50
01-11-2013, 02:48 PM
I wouldn't consider miami close persay but we are on the same coast so i guess i could see that

And he's witty!

Bonus!

newclasspack
01-11-2013, 03:02 PM
So this messaged was left on my face book by one of my better friends... who happens to root for he heels


Understood, All those amount to L's of a team thats not that good yet however you guys are at your prime, your peak if you call it, and you will still get raped by one of your NC big brothers. Wt game will people pay more attention to 1 Duke and 20 NC state or 1 Duke and (unranked) UNC. They could be listed as unranked/handicap/sorry and NC state fans such as yourself would still pride yourselves on being better than us. DO SOMETHING! WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP. I want you guys to beat duke why BECAUSE I HATE DUKE! and i have no feelings at all towards NC State and i dnt think anyone has any feelings toward NC State other than NC state fans. You know everybody we loss to off the top of the dome, me i have no idea who NC state loss to. Maybe its my lack of knowledge or maybe its the lack of prestige that NC state basketball has with it. We've sucked before if you remember the whole NIT thing however NC state has had way worse seasons than we have over the years. Pride yourself in this year, where you guys will finally be noticed for actually residing in North Carolina.

This has been a good season to me so far.

DBFAN
01-11-2013, 03:12 PM
While I understand the revenge factor for NC State, because they actually gotta about 20 yrs worth built up over there, I would imagine Duke is looking to prove something too. I would imagine they remember how poorly they played in that first half last year, and I'm sure they heard for the rest of the season how State shoulda won, and that state went deeper into the tourney, and how they have the best recruiting class this year... Etc. So while state might pull it off, I think our boys are gonna be very anxious to prove to Raleigh that they are not a one man wrecking crew, but rather a team, and really good one at that, an that if State or anyone else expects them to just lay down because of the injury situation, then they should think again.
I wish just one time that I could her the actual talk K gives to his team before a game. I bet tomorrow will be awesome

Can't wait till to tomorrow
Go Devils

Lar77
01-11-2013, 03:35 PM
I think a loose game favors State; a tight game favors Duke. It seems ACC refs this year are letting them play. Either way this should be close game for most of the way. The crowd will be amped. It's good to see State back as a contender.

PS Speaking of refs, watching last night's Carolina-Miami game, Jay Bilas was going nuts over a PJ Hairston block (no foul) until the replay clearly showed that Hairston bodied the Miami player in the air. No further comment from Jay.

-bdbd
01-11-2013, 07:17 PM
Good analysis. ACC Sports Journal picks State by 6. They echo a lot of the conversation on this thread....


http://www.accsports.com/articles/2013011114456/acc-weekend-preview-jan-11.php?login=true

Bob Green
01-11-2013, 07:31 PM
number(s) don't tell the whole story.

True, but here are some more numbers for you anyway. Duke opened as a 5 point favorite in Vegas with the over/under set at 150. I like those numbers and will go with Duke 77, State 73 as my final score prediction. I'm expecting a close game to the finish. The outcome will quite possibly be dictated by foul trouble.

By the way, welcome to DBR. It's always nice to hear the opponent's fans perspective on the game.

ChillinDuke
01-11-2013, 07:52 PM
True, but here are some more numbers for you anyway. Duke opened as a 5 point favorite in Vegas with the over/under set at 150. I like those numbers and will go with Duke 77, State 73 as my final score prediction. I'm expecting a close game to the finish. The outcome will quite possibly be dictated by foul trouble.

By the way, welcome to DBR. It's always nice to hear the opponent's fans perspective on the game.

An interesting coincidence just occurred as I was reading this thread. Someone upthread (perhaps Saratoga? Sorry, can't remember) laid out a scoring prediction to get us to 78 pts. Now you, Bob, have listed the Vegas line having us at 77. I was about to reply to whoever posted the scoring prediction saying 78 sounds very optimistic (without Kelly), but now Vegas has apparently echoed that number in their initial expectation.

So, I guess the reason I'm posting is to say this: If we score 78 (or 77) points, I would expect (somewhat strongly) to win this game.

- Chillin

Bob Green
01-11-2013, 08:15 PM
So, I guess the reason I'm posting is to say this: If we score 78 (or 77) points, I would expect (somewhat strongly) to win this game.

- Chillin

I'm pretty certain we will win if we score 75 or more points. The obvious question is: who steps up and provides additional offensive firepower in the absence of Ryan Kelly? State is going to double team Mason Plumlee so we need Cook to open things up with dribble penetration, and Curry and Sulaimon must knockdown their perimeter jumpers.

Hairston probably moves into the starting line-up and plays more minutes, but I do not expect him to play the 28 minutes Ryan Kelly averages. For discussion purposes, let's say Hairston plays 24 minutes. The four minute delta plus the 11 minutes Hairston normally plays equals 15 additional minutes available to Jefferson, Murphy and Marshall Plumlee. However those minutes end up being divided, the player on the court must produce points to make up for the absence of Kelly and his 13.4 points per game.

Newton_14
01-11-2013, 08:16 PM
Welcome to the State guys. You guys are giddy and should be. The game is at home, Duke is without a key weapon, and State is coming in with only the two losses, plus they are the pre-season pick to win the league. Lots of signs point to a State win.

I think this is a good check point game for both teams actually. Duke will find out how well they can play w/o Ryan, and State gets a test against one of the power teams in the league and country. The consensus from the talking heads is that Duke is nowhere near as good w/o Ryan as with him. It's a fair assessment. However, Duke is still a formidable team.

I really hate Ryan cannot play, but I am really interested to see what wrinkles K throws in to offset Kelly's absence. The Leslie match up was going to be difficult even with Ryan, so how we defend him is key. Ryan was important on both sides of the ball, but I think it will be easier for Duke to maintain a high level defense than offense w/o Ryan. What will K do differently? Will Alex play some 4? Will we see the 4 guard look with Mason? If we are counting Murph as a guard I think we will. I am not convinced though, that K will play the Quinn, Seth, Tyler, Rasheed, Mason lineup. He might, but I will not be shocked if he doesn't. We very well could see Quinn, Seth, Rasheed, Murphy, Mason, or Quinn, Tyler, Rasheed, Murphy, Mason, or Quinn, Tyler, Seth, Murphy, Mason lineups though. K will have multiple options to throw at State there. If I were betting though, and after listening to K this morning, I expect the normal rotation for our back court/wings, and for K to use Amile and Alex to backup Josh. If Mason comes out at all, I think Marshall will sub in for him. Barring foul trouble with Mason, I do not expect him to sit more than 1 or 2 minutes, if that. He may very well go the full 40.


I expect our defense to be strong, and for State to find points hard to come by. We have to stop the transition, and leak outs, forcing State to score in half court sets. In the half court, we have to be very physical with Wood, and make him work to find open looks. Not that it matters due to switching, but I do expect Seth to be on Wood, Rasheed on Brown, Mason on Howell, Josh on Leslie, and Quinn on Purvis. When Warren is in, whomever Quinn guards will have a decided height advantage, but that swings to Duke's favor on the other end with Quinn's quickness and ball-handling skills.

I think Duke's issue will be on offense. They are going to have to find a flow w/o Ryan. Rasheed and Mason need to get back on their normal games. If the 4 normal starters can have their normal scoring output, Duke will have a good chance to win. That will prove difficult for Mason unless he can snap out of his funk (this would be a great time to do it).

Obviously Josh cannot play 30+ minutes, so Amile and Alex will be key. With Freshmen, you never know what you are going to get. They dont have to be stars, or score 20 points or anything. They just need to play solid defense, knock down open looks when they get them, and limit turnovers.

I give State the edge due to home court, and Kelly's absence, but I do expect a hard fought game that goes down to the wire.

DukieInBrasil
01-11-2013, 08:31 PM
Obviously Josh cannot play 30+ minutes, so Amile and Alex will be key. With Freshmen, you never know what you are going to get. They dont have to be stars, or score 20 points or anything. They just need to play solid defense, knock down open looks when they get them, and limit turnovers.


Alex and Amile have both been getting many of their points lately on offensive stickbacks. I guess i would expect Murph to get the ball in the normal flow of the offense more than Amile, but Amile is more likely to get more "rescue" points.

Newton_14
01-11-2013, 08:43 PM
Alex and Amile have both been getting many of their points lately on offensive stickbacks. I guess i would expect Murph to get the ball in the normal flow of the offense more than Amile, but Amile is more likely to get more "rescue" points.

I agree totally. If Amile catches in the lane with any kind of space to work with though, he has shown that he has only one thought, and that is get to the hoop as quickly as possible. He may get a few of those opportunities tomorrow. I do not expect any jumpshots from him though. He is a driver. It is possible State is a team he can score against in the lane.

It will be interesting.

newclasspack
01-11-2013, 08:47 PM
PPG: State-81.3 / Duke-79.3
FG%: State-53% / Duke-48.1%
3p%: State-39.6% / Duke-42.7%
FT%: State-66.7% / Duke-71.1%
RPG: 36.3% / 36.2%
APG: 15.2% / 16.1%
TPG: 12.3% / 11.1%
SPG: 6.6 / 7.1
BPG: 4.8 / 4.7


I also know we hold opponents to 29.7% from behind the arc this season which is huge (even tho it never feels like it)

I always thought Amile was a 2-3 year guy and one that could be great.... but because of how the recruitment happened i feel a little bad because now He's def. gonna get his mental toughness tested. No punches will be pull by our fans in our arena for him. it will be a true test of this young man's will and determination.

Newton_14
01-11-2013, 09:12 PM
PPG: State-81.3 / Duke-79.3
FG%: State-53% / Duke-48.1%
3p%: State-39.6% / Duke-42.7%
FT%: State-66.7% / Duke-71.1%
RPG: 36.3% / 36.2%
APG: 15.2% / 16.1%
TPG: 12.3% / 11.1%
SPG: 6.6 / 7.1
BPG: 4.8 / 4.7


I also know we hold opponents to 29.7% from behind the arc this season which is huge (even tho it never feels like it)

I always thought Amile was a 2-3 year guy and one that could be great.... but because of how the recruitment happened i feel a little bad because now He's def. gonna get his mental toughness tested. No punches will be pull by our fans in our arena for him. it will be a true test of this young man's will and determination.

No offense or snark intended here, but the last thing a Duke player is every going to be fazed by is hostile fans berating them. Not going to happen to Amile or any other Duke player, Freshmen or not. Nothing fans do at PNC Arena will every approach what happens at Maryland.

Amile may or may not play well tomorrow, but State fans berating him won't be a factor. Duke is the most hated team on planet earth. The players embrace that and use it to fuel them.

newclasspack
01-11-2013, 09:29 PM
No offense or snark intended here, but the last thing a Duke player is every going to be fazed by is hostile fans berating them. Not going to happen to Amile or any other Duke player, Freshmen or not. Nothing fans do at PNC Arena will every approach what happens at Maryland.

Amile may or may not play well tomorrow, but State fans berating him won't be a factor. Duke is the most hated team on planet earth. The players embrace that and use it to fuel them.there is no hate like the hate of a brother. that's all i'm saying.. when it comes to playing against each other.. its intense. Maryland is just mean period.

Newton_14
01-11-2013, 09:38 PM
there is no hate like the hate of a brother. that's all i'm saying.. when it comes to playing against each other.. its intense. Maryland is just mean period.

State is bitter because everyone had Amile pegged to come there, and he surprised and chose Duke. Only choosing UNC could hurt worse. I get it. I also get that State students are vile at games. I was there at the last Duke/State game and saw that first hand. Tomorrow the hate will be directed at Amile instead of Singler like last time. I am just saying that being the object of hate is a normal day at the office for Duke Players. Amile has experienced it already in all of the "neutral" court games this season, and knows he is point man tomorrow. I just don't think it is going to be an issue/factor at all. I am much more worried about State's players than their fans.

Cameron
01-11-2013, 10:17 PM
No punches will be pull by our fans in our arena for him. it will be a true test of this young man's will and determination.

Thanks for the forewarning, Spike Lee. I am sure you and the rest of the pack of wolves are very loud inside of your arena, but you are playing Duke, whose acquired hate is surpassed only by Notre Dame and the New York Yankees. In the world of college basketball, the Duke Forest is a leper colony. Our team inhabits an island onto itself.

Source: Following Duke to various arenas all around the country in Blue Devil gear. While in Columbus for the Ohio State game in 2011, I am pretty sure I was the victim of a hate crime. Godspeed to any Duke fan intrepid enough to make the trek to College Park.

newclasspack
01-11-2013, 10:21 PM
Thanks for the forewarning, Spike Lee. I am sure you and the rest of the pack of wolves are very loud inside of your arena, but you are playing Duke, whose acquired hate is surpassed only by Notre Dame and the New York Yankees. In the world of college basketball, the Duke Forest is a leper colony. Our team inhabits an island onto itself.

Source: Following Duke to various arenas all around the country in Blue Devil gear. While in Columbus for the Ohio State game in 2011, I am pretty sure I was the victim of a hate crime. Godspeed to any Duke fan intrepid enough to make the trek to College Park.Hey i've been nothing but civil man no need for the unneeded hostility

Cameron
01-11-2013, 10:25 PM
Hey i've been nothing but civil man no need for the unneeded hostility

Just exchanging a little pre-game banter. No hostility on my end.

I'm naturally predisposed to melancholy, but I fully expect you to have the last laugh tomorrow afternoon around two, so don't sweat it.

-jk
01-11-2013, 10:39 PM
...
Godspeed to any Duke fan intrepid enough to make the trek to College Park.

I've done it dozens of times. I got tired of the abuse and don't go anymore, and it's only a 20 minute drive away. Alas.

And I can't seem to convince anyone around here to improve the game day atmosphere.

Ah, well, soon to be a non-issue.

-jk

newclasspack
01-11-2013, 10:42 PM
Just exchanging a little pre-game banter. No hostility on my end.

I'm naturally predisposed to melancholy, but I fully expect you to have the last laugh tomorrow afternoon around two, so don't sweat it.fair enough.

Newton_14
01-11-2013, 11:08 PM
fair enough.
Cameron meant no offense nor did I...

I actually pull for State anytime they are not playing Duke.

Tomorrow should be a good game..

ScreechTDX1847
01-11-2013, 11:11 PM
NCSU by 6. Our first half woes have to end EARLY tomorrow. I just think the Pack match up well against us. Quinn will have a tough time seeing over Brown and will have to be play damn near perfect off the ball screen to get others involved. We need to shoot 38-40% from 3 land and hit our season averages at the line. Mason needs to go straight to the hoop within 1.5 seconds of getting the ball or we will lose that advantage.

Scoot Wood CANNOT get going. I don't feel great about this one and I feel like my hunches are usually right over the years.

At the end of the day this will be about who brings the emotion. That so often determines the outcomes of games in college basketball. Will our team come out the gate ready to match the crowd and the moment? We couldn't have a better coach to amp up our boys but our starters need to take their match-ups personally.

We aren't the #1 team in the country tomorrow; we are an ACC road team. Counter-punches will define our resolve and focus will be key.

I really want to see what our mentality is tomorrow. Either way, we learn a lot from this game as a team.

Kedsy
01-11-2013, 11:21 PM
Our first half woes have to end EARLY tomorrow.

This may sound silly, but here's a very tiny bright spot to Ryan not being able to play: I think there's an advantage going into a road game as the underdog. That wasn't going to happen if we'd been at full strength, but now a lot of talking heads are predicting a State win, and even Coach K said something along the lines of he hopes we don't get blown out. The team has to know that if they don't play their hardest for 40 minutes they'll probably lose -- I'm sure K has been drilling that into them for several days now -- so maybe we don't have any "first half woes." Maybe it's a punch, counter-punch game that goes down to the wire and could go either way. I'd take that, on the road against a top 20 team without one of our best players.

newclasspack
01-11-2013, 11:24 PM
All last year i said if wood should model his game after one pro... it should be Rip Hamilton... and i'm seeing more and more of that this year. The constant running off screen never standing on O. just wearing his defender down with constant motion. Like i said Rasheed is gonna have RUN for 40 minutes with wood

DBFAN
01-11-2013, 11:48 PM
but now a lot of talking heads are predicting a State win, and even Coach K said something along the lines of he hopes we don't get blown out"""

I would also guess those are the same talking heads who picked State at the beginning season to be the best in the ACC and that is just classic K blowing smoke up the Wolf pack hind side. Exact same thing he did with Vegas in 91. I bet he is as amped up for this game as any of the other games this year.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 12:09 AM
Welcome NC State fans! I have enjoyed reading your posts.

I have a couple of points.

I am a doom and gloomer because of our team without Ryan but perhaps we need to think about the beginning of the year when Kelly wasn't scoring much and we still blew some good teams away.

I also recall going to State with my daughter in 2010 and watching us lose but before, during and after being very wel treated by State fans.

Lastly as I have said before, my oldest daughter is a senior at Duke and youngest a sophomore at UNC. I'll take State over UNC any day! In fact my son has just been accepted there so next year I might be even more sympathetic to state (unless he gets into Duke)HAHA!

Bob Green
01-12-2013, 05:37 AM
This may sound silly, but here's a very tiny bright spot to Ryan not being able to play: I think there's an advantage going into a road game as the underdog.

We are not the underdog. Duke opened as a 5 point favorite and is currently listed between -3 and -4 at the various sport books in Vegas.

hillsborodevil
01-12-2013, 06:26 AM
Please excuse me if this has already been mentioned but I like the additional day of preparation Duke has over State. Duke played on Tuesday and State on Wednesday. In the past Duke's opponent always seemed to have the extra day.

Also agree that State fans are very classy neighbors.

This will be a great game to watch. Go Duke!!!!

David
01-12-2013, 07:42 AM
We are not the underdog. Duke opened as a 5 point favorite and is currently listed between -3 and -4 at the various sport books in Vegas.

I was surprised by this line. I think the betting public undervalues the loss of Kelly. The sharps (professional gamblers) must be all over State +3.5.

Kedsy
01-12-2013, 08:06 AM
We are not the underdog. Duke opened as a 5 point favorite and is currently listed between -3 and -4 at the various sport books in Vegas.

Oh, I know technically we're the favorite, but a lot of people see us as having much less of a chance to win due to the injury and Coach K can play (and has been playing) that up in the players' psyches.

devildeac
01-12-2013, 08:40 AM
Welcome NCSWolf. Wow, two level-headed and educated State fans in this thread, how awesome is that? I think most Duke fans are happy that State is getting back to being a factor in the conference and national picture. It's a lot of fun to have three top programs so close to each other so we mostly root for you guys when you're not playing us. I can't wait until tomorrow, it's going to be a great game.


Yep, more than there are in all of t*r heel nation or on IC. :D

Welcome indeed!

ArkieDukie
01-12-2013, 08:43 AM
First off, welcome to our NC State brethren posters! It's great to see civil discourse with our opponents. Count me in with the folks who are happy with State's resurgence. I pull for them unless they're playing us.

I want to throw a notion out here that's been alluded to but not stated outright. We've had some great discussion regarding the plan to replace Ryan's minutes (sorry - no one can replace RK), but I have not seen anyone mention the fact that State also does not know exactly how K will change things up. I would argue that this gives us a slight advantage. Our D is pretty darn good, and State has all of its players in the game. We know what they're going to do. Duke without RK is a bit of an unknown entity. There's a part of Gottfried that has to be worried by this, having seen some of Coach K's magic in the past in similar situations. He can make some guesses, and that's it. Remember, State has to defend us, too, and RK's absence could very well generate some as-yet unseen offensive schemes.

I'm not saying this is going to be a cakewalk, and I'm not saying we'll win the game. I'm siding with those who think this is still a winnable game and that it will be a great one to watch.

devildeac
01-12-2013, 08:44 AM
I'm just glad we're not playing Lehigh...

(Just kidding. Sort of...)

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 08:57 AM
I'm just glad we're not playing Lehigh...

(Just kidding. Sort of...)

McCollum is out for the year with his broken foot if that makes you feel any better

moonpie23
01-12-2013, 09:13 AM
this guy has valid points (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/72414/journey-to-the-tourney-duke-at-nc-state-2)

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 09:22 AM
this guy has valid points (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/72414/journey-to-the-tourney-duke-at-nc-state-2)
Medcalf has several holes in his arguments. He says we struggle in big games and then lists two examples. First off, I'm not sure I would have classified Oklahoma State as a "big" game. And if you do, you might as well consider UConn and Stanford big games. IMO, we have only had one big game, and that was against the #2 team in the nation on the road and we only lost by 7. So I don't think there is enough of a sample size to support the claim that we struggle in big games.




Defense is a not problem. Definitely a weakness, but not sure it is a problem yet.




Then Medcalf bags on Brown's performance in our two losses. Really? Even though we lost to Michigan and Brown was 3-10 from the field, it's a bit stretch to try to use a 6 point, 10 assist/1 turnover performance against a guy. Let's look back at Brown's performance against Duke last year. At Duke: 19 points(7-14 FG/1-2 3pt), 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and 3 turnovers. Not too shabby.




And the Duke has coach K and we don't argument can be used for everyone of Duke's games. Not just us.

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 09:23 AM
I was at PNC this morning at 5 bringing my friend bojangles.... students started lining up at 2 am

devildeac
01-12-2013, 09:23 AM
McCollum is out for the year with his broken foot if that makes you feel any better

I knew that and I never take pleasure in an injury to another player so I was not referencing that. Just to the simple fact we lost to Lehigh last year in the NCAAT without Ryan playing:(. (Apologies if this post sounds harsh/offensive. Not meant to be interpreted in that manner.:o)

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 09:24 AM
I knew that and I never take pleasure in an injury to another player so I was not referencing that. Just to the simple fact we lost to Lehigh last year in the NCAAT without Ryan playing:(. (Apologies if this post sounds harsh/offensive. Not meant to be interpreted in that manner.:o)oh i know i didn't mean it like that more in the since that you probably won't see him. He's taking a medical redshirt. It does make me wonder how would guards like DJ cooper McCollum and Damian Lillard Perform if they played at big name schools.

moonpie23
01-12-2013, 09:27 AM
would not surprise me to see K throw the pack a few curve balls with the line ups......

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 09:41 AM
would not surprise me to see K throw the pack a few curve balls with the line ups......Unless he runs a four guard offense forcing leslie out then there's nothing else i can think of that would surprise but hey he's K for a reason so.....

Bob Green
01-12-2013, 09:45 AM
Unless he runs a four guard offense forcing leslie out then there's nothing else i can think of that would surprise but hey he's K for a reason so.....

How about going with the Twin Towers line-up? Mason and Marshall on the court together is one of several options available to Coach Krzyzewski.

TruBlu
01-12-2013, 09:53 AM
State alum/fans need to start referring to NC State as:

THE North Carolina State University.

Motto: "Where athletes actually attend classes"

I think the game today will not be one of beauty. Expecting a down to the wire, low scoring, heavy fouling, gut it out performance, with Hess ejecting every former player of both teams. This will hit Duke hard, as Coach K will end the game with no assistants.

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 10:27 AM
State alum/fans need to start referring to NC State as:

THE North Carolina State University.

Motto: "Where athletes actually attend classes"

I think the game today will not be one of beauty. Expecting a down to the wire, low scoring, heavy fouling, gut it out performance, with Hess ejecting every former player of both teams. This will hit Duke hard, as Coach K will end the game with no assistants.http://forum.packinsider.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=138&d=1352494198

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 10:29 AM
Pics of students outside of PNC

https://twitter.com/PackMensBball/status/290110603928948737/photo/1
https://twitter.com/ReevesiXi/status/290077973539868672/photo/1 - 7 am
https://twitter.com/PackMensBball/status/290099711975772160/photo/1
https://twitter.com/PackMensBball/status/290098148733509632/photo/1
https://twitter.com/statefansnation/status/290082723454918656/photo/1 - 8 am
https://twitter.com/PackPride/status/290086589395259392/photo/1
https://twitter.com/kmdanie2/status/290094495469563905/photo/1
http://instagram.com/p/UYl1KjREeJ/ - 7:30 am
https://twitter.com/ScottyMcCreery/status/290073894138818560/photo/1 - sometime before the sun came up

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-12-2013, 10:49 AM
Pics of students outside of PNC

https://twitter.com/PackMensBball/status/290110603928948737/photo/1
https://twitter.com/ReevesiXi/status/290077973539868672/photo/1 - 7 am
https://twitter.com/PackMensBball/status/290099711975772160/photo/1
https://twitter.com/PackMensBball/status/290098148733509632/photo/1
https://twitter.com/statefansnation/status/290082723454918656/photo/1 - 8 am
https://twitter.com/PackPride/status/290086589395259392/photo/1
https://twitter.com/kmdanie2/status/290094495469563905/photo/1
http://instagram.com/p/UYl1KjREeJ/ - 7:30 am
https://twitter.com/ScottyMcCreery/status/290073894138818560/photo/1 - sometime before the sun came up

Awesome to see so much energy and enthusiasm from Pack fans. This is undoubtedly good for the league. I'd love to see NC State go into the NCAA tournament with just three more losses on their ledger...

Go Duke!

matt1
01-12-2013, 10:57 AM
The chance of beating NC State according to different simulations:

RealTimeRPI: 53.4%
Similar Games Model: 59.4% (Team Rankings)
Decision Tree Model: 55.9% (Team Rankings)
Power Rankings Model: 80.9% (Team Rankings)
Team Rankings: 61.2% or 69.3%- two different things in two places (official projection)
AccuScore: 47.3%- YES, WE ARE THE UNDERDOG ACCORDING TO THIS!

CBSSports (projected score): Duke 76, NC State 74
CBSSports Poll: 56% say that we will be the last unbeaten- meaning that we win today
ESPN Streak for the Cash: 92% predict Duke to win
Line: Duke -2.5

My Prediction: Duke 82, NC State 74

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 11:02 AM
I will say one more thing. That last thing duke wants to do is get in a shootout with us.. any game in the mid 70s and higher favors us.


But also Digger Phelps just picked us to win -_-

ArkieDukie
01-12-2013, 11:11 AM
I will say one more thing. That last thing duke wants to do is get in a shootout with us.. any game in the mid 70s and higher favors us.


But also Digger Phelps just picked us to win -_-

You just got the Digger Phelps Kiss of Death? Sorry; that's a tough break ... hey, wait a minute - that's great news for us! ;)

-bdbd
01-12-2013, 11:12 AM
State alum/fans need to start referring to NC State as:

THE North Carolina State University.

Motto: "Where athletes actually attend classes"I think the game today will not be one of beauty. Expecting a down to the wire, low scoring, heavy fouling, gut it out performance, with Hess ejecting every former player of both teams. This will hit Duke hard, as Coach K will end the game with no assistants.


Motto: "[I]Where athletes actually attend classes" and PAY for theit tatoos too!:rolleyes:

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 11:17 AM
You just got the Digger Phelps Kiss of Death? Sorry; that's a tough break ... hey, wait a minute - that's great news for us! ;)

Digger Phelps couldn't even Say NC State Last year....

ArkieDukie
01-12-2013, 11:20 AM
Digger Phelps couldn't even Say NC State Last year....

That's because Digger Phelps is an idiot. ;)

subzero02
01-12-2013, 11:21 AM
You just got the Digger Phelps Kiss of Death? Sorry; that's a tough break ... hey, wait a minute - that's great news for us! ;)

Digger Phelps has hated us for years and I am more than ok with it ;-)

ArkieDukie
01-12-2013, 11:27 AM
Digger Phelps has hated us for years and I am more than ok with it ;-)

There's that, too. I think I was at one of the games that made him hate us. Anyone else remember the "Squat" and "Roll over" chants which were directed at him? Hilarious.

dukebballcamper90-91
01-12-2013, 11:48 AM
Let's GO DUKE!

DBFAN
01-12-2013, 11:52 AM
Go Devils!!!

:cool:

newclasspack
01-12-2013, 11:57 AM
Gametime see you guys hopefully 15-1 ;-)

jwillfan
01-12-2013, 12:06 PM
Showed him walking on the floor just prior to the start of the game. Hope it's just a precaution. Didn't see a boot.

riverside6
01-12-2013, 12:10 PM
Live tempo-based stats for Duke/NC State here...

http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=14558

Furniture
01-12-2013, 12:11 PM
Josh is doing well so far"

gumbomoop
01-12-2013, 12:11 PM
Appears Duke is alternating Seth and Rasheed on Wood. After one switch, actually Quinn was shadowing Wood .

DukieInBrasil
01-12-2013, 12:13 PM
I think Hairston may actually be a good pick to guard Leslie, as he he can really push him around, wear him down a little bit with some physical play. Nice Oboard and putback by Josh. Let's hope he keeps up the strong play.
Team can't buy an outside shot. Cook is not really finding his way into the paint, yet.
Nice feed by Mason!!!

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:14 PM
Loose ball foul on mason when he had position? Lame.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 12:14 PM
No jumpers from josh please,!!

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:16 PM
Good D by Amile!

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:19 PM
Duke has woken up! Good run!

Furniture
01-12-2013, 12:20 PM
Amile!!

Utley
01-12-2013, 12:21 PM
Male everywhere - scoring, rebounding and great D. Mason being a real man so far. Feels like its goi g to be a war.

CDu
01-12-2013, 12:21 PM
After 8 minutes:

Hairston + Jefferson = 8 points, 2 rebounds, 1 bllock
Leslie = 5 points, 1 rebound

Awesome start.

Jderf
01-12-2013, 12:21 PM
Hello Amile Jefferson!

DukieInBrasil
01-12-2013, 12:22 PM
I really like the way Amile is playing. Causing steals, blocking shots, grabbing boards, scoring points. He's playing a very effective brand of ball so far.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:24 PM
One thing you will hear the announcers say a lot today... "Crowd wanted a foul"

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:26 PM
Loving the effort on the glass today!

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:28 PM
Double technical is such a ref cop out.

Mabdul Doobakus
01-12-2013, 12:30 PM
Double technical is such a ref cop out.

Yeah, what a gutless cop out. No question in my mind they were influenced by the home crowd there.

BlueandWhite
01-12-2013, 12:31 PM
Loving the effort on the glass today!

Love, love, LOVE the way this team came to play today!! Great ACC game thus far!

plimnko
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
i didn't realize standing there getting woofed at was a technical. is it my tv or are the refs wearing red? lol

oldnavy
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
Watch,
This game is going to get our of hand physically, then the refs are going to overcall everything......

Hope our guys stay smart.

Les Grossman
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
Any word on diagnosis and return?

Furniture
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
Problem was that Wood gave him some hip then Tyler pushed him. No need for that.

CDu
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
Yeah, what a gutless cop out. No question in my mind they were influenced by the home crowd there.

To be fair, Thornton did more than Wood to earn the technical. Wood didn't actually say anything - just leaned in to give Thornton a chance to yap more (a bit of a taunt, as Thornton is quite a yapper). Thornton then gave Wood a forearm to the side and the two separated.

Probably should have just been a warning to both rather than a technical to either.

DukieInBrasil
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
Why does Thornton get a T in that situation? Wood came over and got in his face, Thornton was walking away from him. He swatted at Woods' hand b/c Wood reached out towards Thornton. The refs better call some unnecessary fouls on Woods to make up for that crap.

vick
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
Yeah, what a gutless cop out. No question in my mind they were influenced by the home crowd there.

I mean, without knowing exactly what Wood said, Tyler initiated physical contact with a poke. Frankly, I think we should feel fortunate to get a double technical there rather than just one on Tyler.

gumbomoop
01-12-2013, 12:33 PM
IMO, Tyler made 2 bad decisions within a few seconds. Did he actually believe he could block Wood's shot, having gotten there way late? And then, it's fine sometimes to play chippy, but that little push-off and jawing occurred because he screwed up on the foul.

Les Grossman
01-12-2013, 12:33 PM
need to run stuff right at him to get him 3

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:34 PM
I mean, without knowing exactly what Wood said, Tyler initiated physical contact with a poke. Frankly, I think we should feel fortunate to get a double technical there rather than just one on Tyler.

Taunting is a technical and wood initiated it.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 12:35 PM
IMO, Tyler made 2 bad decisions within a few seconds. Did he actually believe he could block Wood's shot, having gotten there way late? And then, it's fine sometimes to play chippy, but that little push-off and jawing occurred because he screwed up on the foul.

Yes.

CDu
01-12-2013, 12:35 PM
Why does Thornton get a T in that situation? Wood came over and got in his face, Thornton was walking away from him. He swatted at Woods' hand b/c Wood reached out towards Thornton. The refs better call some unnecessary fouls on Woods to make up for that crap.

That's a very Duke-tinted view.

Wood leaned in toward Thornton in a mocking "opportunity for Thornton to talk more in an 'I can't hear you' mode." Thornton pushed Wood with his forearm.

Neither deserved a tech. A warning would have sufficed.

Les Grossman
01-12-2013, 12:36 PM
great play

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:37 PM
Love hairston's effort but he needs to learn to kick it out Zoubek style.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 12:38 PM
Ami,e needs minutes more than josh.

CDu
01-12-2013, 12:41 PM
Jefferson has played great but has two fouls. Hairston had a good start, but he's starting to slip a bit.

They have played well as a pair in offsetting Leslie.

_Gary
01-12-2013, 12:41 PM
Ami,e needs minutes more than josh.

The understatement of the day, thus far. I don't think I've disagreed more with an in-game decision by Coach K (not keeping Jefferson in and Josh out) since he let Trajan bring the ball up court for the last play in '99.

DukieInBrasil
01-12-2013, 12:41 PM
Well that was a particularly poor sequence all around. Leslie is abusing Hairston lately, just gotta bring Leslie out away from the rim and Josh can't keep up.
Nice fake and 3 by Curry, good to see him get one to go in.

Mabdul Doobakus
01-12-2013, 12:42 PM
I just rewound to that double T situation because there seems to be some disagreement here as to what happen.

1. Wood was clearly the instigator here. Thornton wasn't even looking at him, as Wood was leaning in close to him and starting to say something. Shortly after Wood opens his mouth, Thornton, still not looking at him and not talking, jabbed very lightly at him, and pretty clearly not with any intent to harm but just to get him away.

2. Both refs called a tech on Wood initially.

You can argue that Thornton was somewhat at fault here, but it's clear to me that Wood was MORE in the wrong, and BOTH refs called the T initially on Wood. You can also argue whether there should have a double tech, or just warnings. That's all fine. I still think it was a cop out to add the second technical.

gwlaw99
01-12-2013, 12:43 PM
We look like a different team without Ryan. Spacing just isn't there and we aren't getting anyone open for a 3.

CDu
01-12-2013, 12:44 PM
I just rewound to that double T situation because there seems to be some disagreement here as to what happen.

1. Wood was clearly the instigator here. Thornton wasn't even looking at him, as Wood was leaning in close to him and starting to say something. Shortly after Wood opens his mouth, Thornton, still not looking at him and not talking, jabbed very lightly at him, and pretty clearly not with any intent to harm but just to get him away.

2. Both refs called a tech on Wood initially.

You can argue that Thornton was somewhat at fault here, but it's clear to me that Wood was MORE in the wrong, and BOTH refs called the T initially on Wood. You can also argue whether there should have a double tech, or just warnings. That's all fine. I still think it was a cop out to add the second technical.

I think it was a bailout because they realized that Wood didn't deserve a technical, and then "corrected" their mistake by calling one on Thornton.

Wood was certainly the instigator, but Thornton did more. A technical only on Wood would have been ridiculous. A technical only on Thornton would have been ridiculous. A technical on both "seemed" a reasonable compromise. But I would have gone with a warning to both instead of techs.

_Gary
01-12-2013, 12:45 PM
Make no mistake about it, losing Tyler to fouls has really hurt us. But why Coach K can't see we are a far superior team (at least today), both offensively and defensively, with Jefferson in and Hairston out, makes no sense to me. It seems extremely obvious at this point. Anyone else seeing it that way?

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:46 PM
Cook just left Lorenzo Brown in the dust with that crossover!

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:47 PM
Make no mistake about it, losing Tyler to fouls has really hurt us. But why Coach K can't see we are a far superior team (at least today), both offensively and defensively, with Jefferson in and Hairston out, makes no sense to me. It seems extremely obvious at this point. Anyone else seeing it that way?

As someone else mentioned, Amile has two fouls.

Les Grossman
01-12-2013, 12:49 PM
considering

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:50 PM
Good first half, but Duke needs to defend better and take better care of the ball.

CLW
01-12-2013, 12:50 PM
Amile and Hairston are playing REALLY well and the team came out with INTENSITY. Going to be a war in the 2nd half we need to keep hitting the boards hard and stop the transition/easy buckets.

_Gary
01-12-2013, 12:51 PM
As someone else mentioned, Amile has two fouls.

I still would have left him in. The difference in how we played was that striking enough to me where it would have been worth it to leave him in. For what it's worth, the other Duke fans in the room with me saw it the same way I did. ;)

Furniture
01-12-2013, 12:51 PM
Make no mistake about it, losing Tyler to fouls has really hurt us. But why Coach K can't see we are a far superior team (at least today), both offensively and defensively, with Jefferson in and Hairston out, makes no sense to me. It seems extremely obvious at this point. Anyone else seeing it that way?

Yes..Me!

hillsborodevil
01-12-2013, 12:51 PM
IMO Wood has kept State in the game. Cook should look for a couple of 3's to open up the driving lanes.

Son of Mojo
01-12-2013, 12:52 PM
Almost every possession it looks like we're having to work and work hard to score. Couple of early rim out shots hurt in that regard, too. Meanwhile it looks like State is having an easier time getting points on possessions. Defense is going to have to step up to make State work harder. Good guys need to stick a few more 3's and get Cook to penetrate more for dump passes to Mason & Amile/Josh/anyone else by the rim. Down 2 at the half on the road in a hostile environment? Not bad, but if not for letting an 8 point lead slip away, it could be much better.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 12:53 PM
I still would have left him in. The difference in how we played was that striking enough to me where it would have been worth it to leave him in. For what it's worth, the other Duke fans in the room with me saw it the same way I did. ;)

I think you will see more of him in the second half. Could be the game where he breaks out and earns more regular minutes...

Mabdul Doobakus
01-12-2013, 12:53 PM
Wood was certainly the instigator, but Thornton did more.

Well, we can go round and round on this, and at this point, it's all sort of moot anyway...so my last word on this is that I what Wood did was unsportsmanlike, and what Thornton did was what nearly anyone would have done in response. But maybe that's just my bias. I'm sure Duke haters out there are saying Thornton punched him and it was completely out of proportion.

Anyway...good first half by both teams. Fun game to watch. They were killing us every time we turned the ball over, so we need to cut down on those.

Les Grossman
01-12-2013, 12:55 PM
did he get tossed on that T?

wgl1228
01-12-2013, 12:55 PM
Ok its time Murphy played some of Rasheed's minutes. He has missed a lay up, a dunk, and has no boards or assists.

TruBlu
01-12-2013, 12:58 PM
did he get tossed on that T?

No, the technical was his 3rd foul. He will be back in 2nd half.

CLW
01-12-2013, 12:58 PM
Ok its time Murphy played some of Rasheed's minutes. He has missed a lay up, a dunk, and has no boards or assists.

Sheed is in a funk and appears to me he is pressing a bit instead of letting the game come to him but I don't think Murphy is going to get any of his minutes today. Tyler and possibly Amile (if Coach wants to go "big") would get any of those minutes.

gumbomoop
01-12-2013, 12:59 PM
Just saw another example of how end of half shot clock doesn't begin until team with ball inbounds it. In this case, Seth hit the 3 with 43.1 left in half. NCSt didn't get ball in, so called timeout - game clocked at that point showed 37.3, so maybe a 5-second violation? Since game clock ran down from 43 to 37, Duke "lost" 6 seconds after NCSt's bucket at its end. Thus Duke got about 3 rather than 9 seconds for its last-gasp attempt.

Les Grossman
01-12-2013, 01:00 PM
Sheed is in a funk and appears to me he is pressing a bit instead of letting the game come to him but I don't think Murphy is going to get any of his minutes today. Tyler and possibly Amile (if Coach wants to go "big") would get any of those minutes.
I'm all for more minutes for Amile!

RoyalBlue08
01-12-2013, 01:00 PM
Ok its time Murphy played some of Rasheed's minutes. He has missed a lay up, a dunk, and has no boards or assists.

I think it worth pointing out that Rasheed is a far superior defender at this point in his career. Especially true versus the type of athletic lineup state plays

davekay1971
01-12-2013, 01:01 PM
That T should have been a no-call. A little woofing by Wood and a little arm bump by Thornton. No big deal either way. I think that was a "let's not let things get out of hand" T by the refs. Probably exceeded what was really warranted by the players' actions.

Great, fun first half. Duke's doing a GREAT job of adjusting to Kelly's absence, and State is playing their best game of the year as a team. They look like the top 2 teams in the ACC today, and it looks like a big gap between them and the next tier.

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:05 PM
did he get tossed on that T?

No, he got his third foul and had to sit the rest of the half.

Duke79UNLV77
01-12-2013, 01:06 PM
That T should have been a no-call. A little woofing by Wood and a little arm bump by Thornton. No big deal either way. I think that was a "let's not let things get out of hand" T by the refs. Probably exceeded what was really warranted by the players' actions.

Great, fun first half. Duke's doing a GREAT job of adjusting to Kelly's absence, and State is playing their best game of the year as a team. They look like the top 2 teams in the ACC today, and it looks like a big gap between them and the next tier.

possibly, but there had been some jawing between those 2 before that play. it looked like after Wood first 2 3's we put Thornton on him, and he was working to pester Wood and get in his head some. Thornton doesn't play dirty, but part of his game is to play tough and chippy. It works frequently, but he also fouls a lot.

Utley
01-12-2013, 01:07 PM
I love the effort today- and I think this is true coming out for Amile. I do worry that we wont have the firepower to pull this out as we try to adjust to a post Ryan offense - I'd also be surprised if our board success continues to the same extent as well. That being said - we have been able to find a second gear in the second half all year long - hope springs eternal.

Cameron
01-12-2013, 01:07 PM
Message to Scott Wood: You're no J.J. And the fact that deep down inside I know that you know that makes me smile. Punk.

If we can get Seth a couple of quick hitters to begin the second stanza that would be huge. He really came on at the end of the half. We need a big finish from the senior.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:09 PM
Ugh. Bad start to the 2nd half. Good timeout by K.

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:10 PM
Well, we can go round and round on this, and at this point, it's all sort of moot anyway...so my last word on this is that I what Wood did was unsportsmanlike, and what Thornton did was what nearly anyone would have done in response. But maybe that's just my bias. I'm sure Duke haters out there are saying Thornton punched him and it was completely out of proportion.

Anyway...good first half by both teams. Fun game to watch. They were killing us every time we turned the ball over, so we need to cut down on those.

What Wood did was certainly unsportsmanlike (and was almost certainly in response to the excessive trash-talking that Thornton does). What Thornton did was also unsportsmanlike (though understandable).

I'd have gone with a warning to both. The tech was costly for us.

Regardless, it's a fun game so far. I'm not happy that Mason has allowed two offensive rebounds for layups for Howell to start the 2nd half. And Sulaimon has really struggled. Aside from that, we're playing well.

chaosmage
01-12-2013, 01:12 PM
leads to bad decision and a basket on the other.

Better decision making.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:13 PM
Hairston has a lot of "good play/bad play" moments. Frustrating.

gumbomoop
01-12-2013, 01:15 PM
Josh missed chance at easy 2 because of a rhythm dribble. All he has to do was go straight up. Instead, rhythm dribble gave defense a chance to catch up, so Josh wound up with a weak attempt.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:15 PM
Nice. Push off by Brown on the drive and then Brown gets the call...

77devil
01-12-2013, 01:15 PM
Hairston has a lot of "good play/bad play" moments. Frustrating.

Unfortunately, more of the latter.

CLW
01-12-2013, 01:16 PM
State came out with allot more energy than we did and Sheed couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat right now. He's playing hard on the defensive end though.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 01:16 PM
I vote that we forget the wood Tyler thing....

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:16 PM
Jefferson got hosed there. Brown got away with a push-off on Thornton, and dove into Jefferson's body. Tough call for his third, in what should have been Brown's third.

Jefferson has played REALLY well today. Unfortunately, Sulaimon has REALLY struggled. After another missed layup, Coach K went to Murphy at SF. Will be interesting to see how long that lasts.

_Gary
01-12-2013, 01:17 PM
Terrible 3rd on Jefferson. And we need him badly today, imho.

Cameron
01-12-2013, 01:17 PM
We need Amile to finish this game. The best way to utilize Josh today is in a seat. That's just the cold, hard truth. Amile has thoroughly outplayed him and he needs to remain in the game.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:18 PM
I think curry is feeling it. Get him more shots!

Cameron
01-12-2013, 01:19 PM
Amile four. Well, that sucks.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:19 PM
Tough break for Amile. Leslie is a tough assignment for anyone.

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:20 PM
Mason has gotten owned by Howell so far this half. He has played the whole game, and I hope fatigue doesn't get him. He was a monster early, but right now Howell is winning the battle.

Jefferson with a dumb fourth foul. Freshman mistake. He'll be out a while now.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 01:20 PM
It just looks too tough for us at the moment

_Gary
01-12-2013, 01:20 PM
A win just got a lot tougher to envision with Amile going out with 4 so quickly in this 2nd half. This may get out of hand quickly.

Mabdul Doobakus
01-12-2013, 01:21 PM
Alright, Mason needs to stop dribbling in traffic 20 feet from the basket. This should be obvious to him at this point.

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:22 PM
Without Kelly, State is a better offensive team than us. I figured we'd have to beat them in a shootout. Right now, it's looking like that's what it is going to take.

RoyalBlue08
01-12-2013, 01:22 PM
Mason seems determined to beat his man off the dribble at the three point line. I sure hope we are not encouraging this behavior.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:23 PM
Richard Howell sweats ALOT.

jjasper0729
01-12-2013, 01:23 PM
first ncsu foul with almost 7 minutes gone.. I didn't know the venue changed to chapel hell at half time

Ben1029
01-12-2013, 01:23 PM
Alright, Mason needs to stop dribbling in traffic 20 feet from the basket. This should be obvious to him at this point.

Exactly, he has an okay handle in the open court but he is no Kelly.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:25 PM
Brown is really outplaying Cook today.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 01:25 PM
Sheed can't lay up at the moment but he sure can hit the FT's

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:27 PM
Brown is really outplaying Cook today.

I don't know that I agree with that. Cook has 8 and 6, Brown 9 and 9. Both are playing pretty well. Brown better, but not by a ton.

jjasper0729
01-12-2013, 01:27 PM
oh no... seth got hurt :/

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:28 PM
I don't know that I agree with that. Cook has 8 and 6, Brown 9 and 9. Both are playing pretty well. Brown better, but not by a ton.

Cook has turned it over more, too.

_Gary
01-12-2013, 01:29 PM
These guys really have heart! I'm loving the fight I'm seeing from them. Seth is just such a money player - even on a bad wheel.

Go Duke!

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:29 PM
Cook has turned it over more, too.

Nope, both have 3 turnovers.

Gthoma2a
01-12-2013, 01:29 PM
God, I hope Curry is okay. One injury is enough to knock us down to being an A team (instead of the A+ team we've been seeing). Two would just be cruel.

Gthoma2a
01-12-2013, 01:30 PM
We've to to get something more than 3s. We have been a balanced team all year, we need to be one now.

Mabdul Doobakus
01-12-2013, 01:30 PM
3 straight possessions where we've jacked up a quick 3.

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:31 PM
Nope, both have 3 turnovers.

Maybe they feel like more with Quinn because two led to fast break points.

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:31 PM
We've to to get something more than 3s. We have been a balanced team all year, we need to be one now.

I'd say we've been more balanced today than we've been all season. Jefferson, Hairston, and Plumlee with 29 points. The guards with 28.

Jderf
01-12-2013, 01:32 PM
3 straight possessions where we've jacked up a quick 3.

Not our best look.

jjasper0729
01-12-2013, 01:32 PM
3 straight possessions where we've jacked up a quick 3.

said the same thing yelling at the tv... why are we taking quick 3s with no passes.

CLW
01-12-2013, 01:32 PM
State is not giving many looks from 3 we are going to have to beat them off the dribble or down in the post. We just are not rebounding as well as our +10 is down to +2 now on the glass and they continue to get EASY buckets beating us down the floor in transition.

Gthoma2a
01-12-2013, 01:33 PM
I'd say we've been more balanced today than we've been all season. Jefferson, Hairston, and Plumlee with 29 points. The guards with 28.

Different use of the term. I mean inside-outside.

_Gary
01-12-2013, 01:33 PM
My biggest concern for the last 8 minutes is going to be us running out of gas. I hope we've got some reserve left in the tank, because we are going to need every bit of energy we can muster to pull this one out.

Utley
01-12-2013, 01:34 PM
Love the tenacity. Next 4 minutes key.

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:34 PM
Jefferson fouls out. Dumb 4th foul, dumb 5th foul. Freshman mistakes.

CLW
01-12-2013, 01:35 PM
and Amile fouls out.

Gthoma2a
01-12-2013, 01:35 PM
The reason that I think we should have been driving and playing inside more is because we haven't gotten them in foul trouble. We needed to get them in foul trouble.

dchen09
01-12-2013, 01:35 PM
How was that not a moving screen?

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:35 PM
That last one on Amile looked a lot like the holds I've seen on Duke shooters all game.

CLW
01-12-2013, 01:36 PM
This game is OVER. State is KILLING us in transition.

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:36 PM
Different use of the term. I mean inside-outside.

Well, where do you think Hairston, Jefferson, and Mason are doing their scoring? We've gotten a TON of our baskets inside. I'd venture we've had a higher percentage of our baskets inside than we have had all year.

Gthoma2a
01-12-2013, 01:37 PM
We need Kelly back. Watching this is misery. Part of it is that I know Michigan will run with the number 1 ranking (at least until they play Indiana), and I know we will still be a struggling team without him.

_Gary
01-12-2013, 01:37 PM
That last one on Amile looked a lot like the holds I've seen on Duke shooters all game.

Yep. I'm not for jumping on him about bad, freshman fouls when he got hosed on at least 2 of them. With him gone I see a blowout on the horizon. I love Josh but today, he is not Amile's equal and I'll be very surprised if we can come back and win this one. Then again, crazier things have happened so here's to hoping.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 01:37 PM
In trouble....

FerryFor50
01-12-2013, 01:38 PM
Well, where do you think Hairston, Jefferson, and Mason are doing their scoring? We've gotten a TON of our baskets inside. I'd venture we've had a higher percentage of our baskets inside than we have had all year.

Most have been off of offensive rebounds and in transition. Very little has come from post offense.

DukieInBrasil
01-12-2013, 01:38 PM
After fighting like mad to get the lead down to 1, the team just kinda forgot how to play ball. Not getting offensive boards anymore, not hitting chippies around the rim, not hitting 3s.
What has happened to Sulaimon? His offense has gone ghost.

chaosmage
01-12-2013, 01:38 PM
Key mistakes. Freshmen ones; quick panic mistakes.

Like that one.

Gthoma2a
01-12-2013, 01:39 PM
Most have been off of offensive rebounds and in transition. Very little has come from post offense.

Exactly, and rebounds are fewer and farther between than they were in the first half.

Furniture
01-12-2013, 01:39 PM
State look very relaxed....

CDu
01-12-2013, 01:40 PM
Most have been off of offensive rebounds and in transition. Very little has come from post offense.

That's because we have only one guy who is a post scorer, and he's struggled with scoring in the post the last few games.

We've gotten quite a few baskets in the paint that weren't offensive rebounds or fast breaks. Most have come with Cook driving and dishing. But that's the best we're going to get with the guys we have. And it's more inside points than we were getting when Kelly was playing.

_Gary
01-12-2013, 01:41 PM
That's because we have only one guy who is a post scorer, and he's struggled with scoring in the post the last few games.

Agreed. And that's why Cook is doing what he is right now - driving and trying to either score or dish.