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View Full Version : MBB: Duke 68, Clemson 40 Post-Game Thread



pfrduke
01-08-2013, 08:55 PM
Thoughts here (Kelly foot/leg vigil to follow).

summerwind03
01-08-2013, 08:58 PM
I guess those extra shots Quinn took after Saturday's game was just what he needed. Impressive!

Edouble
01-08-2013, 09:02 PM
Is a MOTM thread even necessary after this one?

Glad to see Quinn get so much love from Len et al on ESPN, and to get a chance to put on the headphones for a nice interview after the game. Cool story that Mason was the first to make contact after the 0-11 shooting vs. Wake, via a "Hang in there/keep shooting" text.

bbosbbos
01-08-2013, 09:02 PM
In the past three games, we had trouble finishing. I cannot imagine if that happens in the big dance.:mad:

licc85
01-08-2013, 09:03 PM
Wasn't able to catch the game, but followed it on ESPN gamecast. Thoughts on the box score:

PROS:

- We outrebounded the crap out of them 39-28. That's a big plus.
- We held them to 40 points on 28% shooting. Great defense.
- We shot 53% from deep.
- Quinn Cook had a monster game. 27 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, 4 steals, 1 turnover. HUGE. 1st team all ACC if he keeps this up.
- Our whole bench got into the game.

CONS:

- Ryan Kelly got hurt . . . that's a huge bummer, hope he's okay.
- Rasheed continues his shooting slump (although made a big contribution on the glass, 2nd on the team in rebounds)
- We shot 43% from the foul line as a team.
- We only had 13 assists to 12 turnovers.

CLW
01-08-2013, 09:04 PM
Two things to take away from this game:

1. Kelly got injured

2. Clemson is VERY bad (especially on offense)

SCMatt33
01-08-2013, 09:10 PM
In the past three games, we had trouble finishing. I cannot imagine if that happens in the big dance.:mad:

Trouble finishing? Duke won with it's largest lead of the game, and did it without Ryan Kelly and with Mason clearly not 100%.

On that topic, I suspect (at least I hope) that he just has a minor illness. He had no energy, couldn't jump, and rarely took the aggressive route. He sat back on D and didn't drive to the basket on offense. I do have to give him a TON of credit though, in that he played a more than respectable game despite whatever was wrong. Except for that reverse dunk attempt and that early fade-away jumper, he really knew what he could do and couldn't do. He used his post game as mostly a decoy and kicked out to shooters more often than not. He concentrated more on rebounding position than first shot defense because he wasn't able to alter shots the same way as he normally does. He was also a great leader, using the most energy to encourage the young guys like Murphy and Jefferson after each got an and-1. I dare say that was one of Mason's best games between the ears that he has ever had.

...and before anyone get's on me about not mentioning Quinn, let me say that he was without a doubt the biggest reason that Clemson was never able to get it closer than 14 or 15 before he himself led the charge to run away at the end.

Saratoga2
01-08-2013, 09:11 PM
Thoughts here (Kelly foot/leg vigil to follow).

Hope Ryan's foot is not a serious injury as he was doing well but sat out the second half.

Quinn was outstanding in all phases with 27 or 29 points to boot.

I guess Josh was in due to his physical strength. Amile and Alex both seem to be in a position to take some of his minutes going forward.

Rasheed played hard but needs to relax on his offensive side. He needs to come out of his scoring slump.

I was surprised that Seth played that many minutes with his sore leg. I suppose coach K wanted experienced players in the game with Ryan out in the second half. At least Seth picked up is scoring in the second half.

Mason is still in the situation where he does well rebounding but is uncomfortable inside with 5 or 6 TO's and inefficient scoring.

Our FT shooting is pretty sorry these days. What is going on with that?

Utley
01-08-2013, 09:13 PM
I really love Amile's energy - it's like there is 3 of him out there. More of a fan comment than a coaching comment - the game goes up 3 notches on the fun meter with him on the floor.

Would love to see Quinn do more of the driving he does in the last five minutes. So hard to stop - and leaves everything else open. Maybe this is always true in regard to your point guard, but he's the key to the level at which the team plays.

rsvman
01-08-2013, 09:14 PM
Mason and the team in general not sharp today. Way too many turnovers. That Clemson press wasn't as good as we made it look.
Great game by Quinn. Just outstanding.

Les Grossman
01-08-2013, 09:15 PM
whose growth this year has been a major factor in the team's success. So sweet to have a point guard! (and one who can score as well as dish)

DST Fan
01-08-2013, 09:22 PM
I was surprised with the problems caused by the Clemson full court press. In Ryan's absence, Mason made at least three awful passes inbounding the ball.

mapei
01-08-2013, 09:26 PM
Mason rebounded very well, I thought. That clouds any attempt to fix the blame for the rest of his game being decidely subpar by his standards.

TruBlu
01-08-2013, 09:26 PM
I was surprised with the problems caused by the Clemson full court press. In Ryan's absence, Mason made at least three awful passes inbounding the ball.

It might be wise to have Mason's long arms and leaping ability on the receiving end of those in-bound passes, especially when Ryan is not in the game.

Phoenix22
01-08-2013, 09:33 PM
Mason and the team in general not sharp today. Way too many turnovers. That Clemson press wasn't as good as we made it look.
Great game by Quinn. Just outstanding.

That's because R Kelly was on the bench. He makes a big difference in those situations. Still need to to better though...

vick
01-08-2013, 09:38 PM
Clemson 40, Quinn 39 (27 points, 5 assists, two of which were on 3s). Have we ever had a player involved in more points than the other team's total?

More generally, and this has been a recurrent issue over the last couple of games (in the game and post-game discussions), but the persistent belief among some in the fanbase that we are playing terrible and will get killed against the Michigans and Indianas of the world is just wrong. Look, just using Sagarin 'predictor,' we should be favored by about 20. Vegas had it 16. We were up 15 at the break and won by 28. Yes, they missed some chippies and we shot a little bit better than average, but winning conference games by 28 (with probably your second best player over the season out for a half) is pretty darn good. NO team is going to just flatten its opponents in every game in modern college basketball. I think one bad thing about watching so many Duke games is you become proficient at spotting (quite real) deficiencies--Mason's free throws, Kelly's lateral quickness, Rasheed's sometimes near-disappearance, Thornton's entire offensive game, etc.--that we start to think every other team is a juggernaut. Michigan and Indiana (to say nothing of Arizona) have flaws just like we do. Sure they could beat us, but the doom and gloom is really over the top. We obviously have room for improvement, but especially if the Kelly injury isn't a long-term deal, this is a team still playing at a high level.

hurleyfor3
01-08-2013, 09:39 PM
68-40... this will please Ken Pomeroy's TRS-80.

Cameron
01-08-2013, 09:39 PM
Before leaving the game in the most scary way possible, Ryan Kelly continued his red-hot streak from beyond the arc, going two for two on the evening in the first several minutes. It's a shame he went down, cause he might have had another four or five triple night from out there. Ryan was feeling it. He's now 21 of 31 from three in the last nine games. That's just ridiculously good. He's without a doubt the finest shooting big man in the country.

Which is why losing him for any long period would be devastating. Ryan's Euro game is the perfect counter to Mason Plumlee's low-post game in the frontcourt. Want to take away Mason's scoring ability in the key by doubling down hard? Then sit back and enjoy as Little Dirk Notwitzki buries you from the perimeter. By March, this pair could be virtually unstoppable on the floor together. Barring injury, I don't see a particularly good way of stopping it.

78Devil
01-08-2013, 09:42 PM
I guess I have always been plagued by the "glass half empty" syndrome, but the trend of the last three or four games is not good. The first half of each of those games qualifies as painful. Fortunately, we have had a combination of home field advantage on most of them, and at least one player step up. But that doesn't make you a #1 team. We are seriously out of sync, and seem to have a confidence problem.

dyedwab
01-08-2013, 09:46 PM
Ryan's Euro game is the perfect counter to Mason Plumlee's low-post game in the frontcourt. Want to take away Mason's scoring ability in the key by doubling down hard? Then sit back and enjoy as Little Dirk Notwitzki buries you from the perimeter. By March, this pair could be virtually unstoppable on the floor together. Barring injury, I don't see a particularly good way of stopping it.

Len Elmore criticized Clemson for not getting out on three-point shooters after Mason kicked it out. The above comment explains that absurdity of that criticism. Either guard Mason one on one, and he beats almost everyone, or have guys cheat back towards him and leave Kelly or our backcourt open for shots. Pick your poison.

licc85
01-08-2013, 09:50 PM
Before leaving the game in the most scary way possible, Ryan Kelly continued his red-hot streak from beyond the arc, going two for two on the evening in the first several minutes. It's a shame he went down, cause he might have had another four or five triple night from out there. Ryan was feeling it. He's now 21 of 31 from three in the last nine games. That's just ridiculously good. He's without a doubt the finest shooting big man in the country.

Which is why losing him for any long period would be devastating. Ryan's Euro game is the perfect counter to Mason Plumlee's low-post game in the frontcourt. Want to take away Mason's scoring ability in the key by doubling down hard? Then sit back and enjoy as Little Dirk Notwitzki buries you from the perimeter. By March, this pair could be virtually unstoppable on the floor together. Barring injury, I don't see a particularly good way of stopping it.

Yeah, you hit the nail on the head. Ryan's recent hot streak started when everyone began using the "double up on Plumlee down low" defense. Their games really complement each other well, and you have to pick your poison between the two. It's a great 1-2 punch in the front court, which is why it's very, very important that Ryan comes back from his injury 100%.

Ryan is a one of the big keys to Mason's success, because he takes one of the opponent's bigs out of the paint. He's such a good shooter, that you just can't affrod to leave him, and if you put a smaller guy on him, Ryan can just drive inside with his great ball handling skills and either post up or or utilize his great mid range game. What a weapon. And now Quinn is really starting to hit his stride too. This is without a doubt the best offense in the nation. I just hope everyone can get healthy and be 100% by tournament time.

Furniture
01-08-2013, 10:00 PM
Take out a scoring machine like Ryan and put in Hairston. No disprespect to Hairston but we are in deep poop!

toooskies
01-08-2013, 10:09 PM
Take out a scoring machine like Ryan and put in Hairston. No disprespect to Hairston but we are in deep poop!

Hairston plays some great team D-- does he lead the team in charges taken?

His one-on-one D is, um, underwhelming though.

slower
01-08-2013, 10:11 PM
More generally, and this has been a recurrent issue over the last couple of games (in the game and post-game discussions), but the persistent belief among some in the fanbase that we are playing terrible and will get killed against the Michigans and Indianas of the world is just wrong. Look, just using Sagarin 'predictor,' we should be favored by about 20. Vegas had it 16. We were up 15 at the break and won by 28. Yes, they missed some chippies and we shot a little bit better than average, but winning conference games by 28 (with probably your second best player over the season out for a half) is pretty darn good. NO team is going to just flatten its opponents in every game in modern college basketball. I think one bad thing about watching so many Duke games is you become proficient at spotting (quite real) deficiencies--Mason's free throws, Kelly's lateral quickness, Rasheed's sometimes near-disappearance, Thornton's entire offensive game, etc.--that we start to think every other team is a juggernaut. Michigan and Indiana (to say nothing of Arizona) have flaws just like we do. Sure they could beat us, but the doom and gloom is really over the top. We obviously have room for improvement, but especially if the Kelly injury isn't a long-term deal, this is a team still playing at a high level.

I plead guilty to a case of "over-the-top doom and gloom". I, like many others, have been spoiled by the great Duke teams of the past that struck fear into the hearts of our opponents. This year's team doesn't do that - and I'm learning to cope with the fact that that's okay. But the "Jekyll and Hyde" 1st half/2nd half performances of this team IS troubling (to me, at least). Saturday's game will tell us a lot. If we can win that game, I'll feel better about our chances to turn it on when we need to. We shall see - without Kelly, it could be tough. OTOH, we could blow them out by 30. Nobody KNOWS what will happen in ANY game. Still, the first-half woes of this team are worrisome, when considering their national championship potential.

Furniture
01-08-2013, 10:16 PM
To a certain extent I think it's us warming up but isnt it also Duke wearing the other team down?

Newton_14
01-08-2013, 10:23 PM
Hairston plays some great team D-- does he lead the team in charges taken?

His one-on-one D is, um, underwhelming though.

Not in the post, it isnt. Josh is playing really solid interior defense. He positions well, uses his weight and strength to keep post guys from getting where they want to go, challenges well if they do catch it, communicates well, and rotates excellently, thus all the charges. That is why he is the first big off the bench. Judging him based on how well he defends wings when caught on a switch is a mistake. I am a huge Amile fan but he gets pushed around in the paint due to lack of weight and strength, and doesn't know the team assignments as well as Josh. Amile will get there and be a great player before all is said and done. Just not there yet. Played well tonight though. As did Alex.

Despite Clemson ugly-ing it up with physical play (example: Mason got fouled hard with a forearm push on the reverse dunk attempt off the lob, and that was one of numerous times he got fouled, many going uncalled) our guys played really well. They put up 43 in the 2nd half. Only disappointment for me was the turnovers on the press.

Other positives:
Bench play
Holding Booker to 12 points on 13 shot attempts
Holding Clemson to 28% shooting
Increasing the lead by 13 w/o Ryan
Mason's passing
Quinn's 27 points 5 assists 5 rebounds 4 steals
Amile's steal and 3 point play.
Team defense

A lot to like about this game despite the ugly, physical play (yet Clemson had 1 team foul with 4 minutes left in the 2nd half)

Big Negative: Kelly's injury. Not sure when it started bothering him. He played the last sequence of the first half and I did not see where anything happened. He was on the bench in his sneakers (no boot) and did not have a noticeable limp or anything. Let's hope the MRI comes back negative and this is just a minor sprain and short term deal.

licc85
01-08-2013, 10:36 PM
Hairston plays some great team D-- does he lead the team in charges taken?

His one-on-one D is, um, underwhelming though.

I think Josh leads the team in "getting knocked down after minimal contact." He seems like he's too big for his body and can't stay on his feet sometimes. If this was football, Josh would have the worst "yards after contact" of all time. Honestly, It might not be a bad idea to slim down just a bit. He's almost too slow to be of any help other than settings screens and just being a big body in the paint on D. I dunno about you guys, but when I watch him, every time he's involved in a play and makes some contact with another player, he'll end up getting knocked over and falling down.

This happens to Amile quite a bit as well, but for the opposite reason, he's just too skinny and he struggles to maintain balance after getting hit because his muscles are stretched too thin over his long, gangly arms and legs. He needs to put on about 20 pounds, and then could really be an All-ACC player, because he's that skilled and has incredible length. Can Josh just transfer 20 lbs of muscle over to Amile? That would be great.

EAT, AMILE. EAT!!!!!

DukieInBrasil
01-08-2013, 10:41 PM
I know their minutes aren't totally comparable since Josh played a lot even when the game was relatively close whereas Amile didn't really play much til the game was pretty well decided, but Amile is just so much more productive than Josh. Josh: 16min, 1pt (0-1, 1-2), 1 reb. Amile: 9min, 5 pts (2-3, 1-1), 3 rebs, 1 steal.
Josh is definitely bigger and stronger, and maybe that translates into some defensive advantage to the team overall that doesn't show up in Josh's stats. Amile however, is so quick and long-armed that he gets to more balls and can turn Oboards into points at a much higher clip than Josh. So even though Josh may have the defensive scheme down more, it seems to me that Amile does other things that make up for that defensive toughness, like tipping balls and getting Dboards, as well as converting more Oboards into points, to get him in the rotation more than Josh. He has more blocks and steals than Josh this year (4-2 on both counts) despite 2+ fewer mpg.
I liked seeing Murphy get a put-back and that Marshall got some run.
If Ryan does in fact miss the next game, i think Josh gets the start but that Amile and Marshall will combine for more minutes than Josh. Alex may be a good match-up physically on Wood, but Wood is a crafty vet prone to abusing inexperienced rookies. I don't really think Alex would play any of the minutes in Kelly's absence. The complexity and complexion of this team change a lot with Ryan out. Although this may free Quinn up more for driving, which he did on the So. PG with much success. State's PG is a Fr., though better than Hall was today.

El_Diablo
01-08-2013, 10:45 PM
Not in the post, it isnt. Josh is playing really solid interior defense. He positions well, uses his weight and strength to keep post guys from getting where they want to go, challenges well if they do catch it, communicates well, and rotates excellently, thus all the charges.

I have to pretty much disagree with everything here. Nerlens Noel is not the most gifted offensive post player but was able to get excellent position on Hairston time after time. Maybe Coach K told Josh to not bother trying to front him or deny the entry pass, but he basically just stood there and waited for the pass to come in. And all he did after the catch would be to stick his arms straight up and watch flat-footed while Noel drop-stepped for an easy layup. Against smaller guys, he can obviously push them around a little more, but to that end he fouls a lot (at his current foul rate for the season, he would foul out of every game within 25 minutes if he were to play that long). He has very little lateral quickness, so his on-ball defense is not good if he has to match up against a smaller, quicker forward. I like Josh, but he just isn't a very good overall defender in my opinion.

I agree that he rotates pretty well though, and he has taken some nice charges recently.

ChrisP
01-08-2013, 10:48 PM
I think Josh leads the team in "getting knocked down after minimal contact." He seems like he's too big for his body and can't stay on his feet sometimes. If this was football, Josh would have the worst "yards after contact" of all time. Honestly, It might not be a bad idea to slim down just a bit. He's almost too slow to be of any help other than settings screens and just being a big body in the paint on D. I dunno about you guys, but when I watch him, every time he's involved in a play and makes some contact with another player, he'll end up getting knocked over and falling down.

This happens to Amile quite a bit as well, but for the opposite reason, he's just too skinny and he struggles to maintain balance after getting hit because his muscles are stretched too thin over his long, gangly arms and legs. He needs to put on about 20 pounds, and then could really be an All-ACC player, because he's that skilled and has incredible length. Can Josh just transfer 20 lbs of muscle over to Amile? That would be great.

EAT, AMILE. EAT!!!!!

Totally disagree with several of your comments. First of all, IMHO, Josh takes WAY more than "minimal contact" on most charges. He's usually the guy willing to step in front of a guy barreling down the lane or down court and often gets hit pretty hard. Second, I'm pretty sure that I read prior to the season that Josh had slimmed down and was feeling much better/quicker and in the best shape he's been in since coming to Duke. Now, I suppose it's always possible to slim down more, but I really don't think that'll do any good. Hairston is tough, hard-working guy, but certainly not the quickest or the best shooter on the team. I wince whenever he takes one of those 15 foot jumpers from the baseline, but otherwise, love his game and the energy he brings when he's in the lineup.

licc85
01-08-2013, 10:56 PM
Totally disagree with several of your comments. First of all, IMHO, Josh takes WAY more than "minimal contact" on most charges. He's usually the guy willing to step in front of a guy barreling down the lane or down court and often gets hit pretty hard. Second, I'm pretty sure that I read prior to the season that Josh had slimmed down and was feeling much better/quicker and in the best shape he's been in since coming to Duke. Now, I suppose it's always possible to slim down more, but I really don't think that'll do any good. Hairston is tough, hard-working guy, but certainly not the quickest or the best shooter on the team. I wince whenever he takes one of those 15 foot jumpers from the baseline, but otherwise, love his game and the energy he brings when he's in the lineup.

I didn't say he doesn't occasionally take a big hit, or that he's not tough. That was not a part of my post at all. Actually, he's probably the toughest guy on the team other than Tyler, but he SUCKS at staying upright. I was talking about how he ends up on the floor about 10 times a game. Have you been watching the games? He has TERRIBLE balance, he seems to too big for his height, and gets knocked down on just about every play that he takes contact. By the way, there's just no way he slimmed down compared to last year, he looks bigger, and moves slower. He's also listed at 5 pounds heavier than last year too:

http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=22727&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&Q_SEASON=2011

http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&SPID=1845&SPSID=22727

It's just a fact. Watch him in any game and you'll see it happen. His lack of quickness always gets him in foul trouble too. He's a junior, so so he understands the system and brings energy and some amount of leadership, so I get why he's ahead of Amile and Alex in the rotation, but don't overpraise him, those fouls could come back to haunt us at some point. I'm probably going to get flamed for my Anti-Josh posts at some point, but I watch a lot of basketball, and he's just a big body, he's okay as a back up big on a team lacking front court depth, but that's it. We need him, and I'm glad we have him, but he's just a guy . . . and a huge downgrade from Plumlee or Kelly.

Furniture
01-08-2013, 11:11 PM
I meant no disrespect to Josh. I think he does his job well. He comes on and defends hard to give the big guys a break. I just don't think he can give the team a lot of minutes. His fouling is a an issue too as pointed out. Without Kelly someone else needs to step up with Josh taking a few more minutes that normal. That's all.
Just my opinion.

uh_no
01-08-2013, 11:13 PM
I didn't say he doesn't occasionally take a big hit, or that he's not tough. That was not a part of my post at all. Actually, he's probably the toughest guy on the team other than Tyler, but he SUCKS at staying upright. I was talking about how he ends up on the floor about 10 times a game. Have you been watching the games? He has TERRIBLE balance, he seems to too big for his height, and gets knocked down on just about every play that he takes contact. By the way, there's just no way he slimmed down compared to last year, he looks bigger, and moves slower. He's also listed at 5 pounds heavier than last year too:

http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=22727&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&Q_SEASON=2011

http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&SPID=1845&SPSID=22727

It's just a fact. Watch him in any game and you'll see it happen. His lack of quickness always gets him in foul trouble too. He's a junior, so so he understands the system and brings energy and some amount of leadership, so I get why he's ahead of Amile and Alex in the rotation, but don't overpraise him, those fouls could come back to haunt us at some point. I'm probably going to get flamed for my Anti-Josh posts at some point, but I watch a lot of basketball, and he's just a guy, he's okay as a back up big on a team lacking front court depth, but that's it. He's just a guy . . . and a huge downgrade from Plumlee or Kelly.

I'm going to agree....I think he is a fine backup, but isn't really a weapon on O, and isn't the worlds best stopper. I hate to say this about a duke player, but I don't see him as much more than a body in the frontcourt, and probably a good teammate. I appreciate his hard work, and who knows, maybe he'll have a breakout senior year, but I don't see it right now.

our defensive efficiency took a relative nosedive after ryan went out (given part of that was due to the issues breaking the press), and not that that's josh's fault, but it seems to point to josh not having a significant positive effect on the defense.

darthur
01-08-2013, 11:22 PM
I plead guilty to a case of "over-the-top doom and gloom". I, like many others, have been spoiled by the great Duke teams of the past that struck fear into the hearts of our opponents. This year's team doesn't do that - and I'm learning to cope with the fact that that's okay.

Really? You have to go back to when we beat two top-5 teams in a row in order to find a game in which we haven't won by double figures. I think you also have to go back to 2010 to find a single ACC win with a bigger margin than tonight.

licc85
01-08-2013, 11:27 PM
I'm going to agree....I think he is a fine backup, but isn't really a weapon on O, and isn't the worlds best stopper. I hate to say this about a duke player, but I don't see him as much more than a body in the frontcourt, and probably a good teammate. I appreciate his hard work, and who knows, maybe he'll have a breakout senior year, but I don't see it right now.

our defensive efficiency took a relative nosedive after ryan went out (given part of that was due to the issues breaking the press), and not that that's josh's fault, but it seems to point to josh not having a significant positive effect on the defense.

There's really got to be some point this year where Marshall starts making enough progress to take some of Josh's minutes. Just based on raw physical ability alone, Marshall is just such a better option as a backup. Better rebounder, better shot blocker/changer, better length, size, leaping ability, speed, and basically everything on offense. The only things that Josh has on Marshall are probably knowledge, having been in the system for 1 more year, leadership, and MAYBE screen setting. That stress fracture in his foot is probably going to rob MP3 of his potential this year. (Having Zoubek flashbacks) But you just can't convince me that Josh Hairston is a better player (even right now) than Marshall Plumlee.

Obviously, Coach K knows this team infinity times better than me, and he has a good reason for how he sets his rotation, so I'm not questioning it. Josh is probably in there for a very good reason. I just think eventually, Marshall is going to get in there, when he's healthy enough, and practiced enough, and the team is going to benefit from it.

uh_no
01-08-2013, 11:38 PM
There's really got to be some point this year where Marshall starts making enough progress to take some of Josh's minutes. Just based on raw physical ability alone, Marshall is just such a better option as a backup. Better rebounder, better shot blocker/changer, better length, size, leaping ability, speed, and basically everything on offense. The only things that Josh has on Marshall are probably knowledge, having been in the system for 1 more year, leadership, and MAYBE screen setting. That stress fracture in his foot is probably going to rob MP3 of his potential this year. (Having Zoubek flashbacks) But you just can't convince me that Josh Hairston is a better player (even right now) than Marshall Plumlee.

Obviously, Coach K knows this team infinity times better than me, and he has a good reason for how he sets his rotation, so I'm not questioning it. Josh is probably in there for a very good reason. I just think eventually, Marshall is going to get in there, when he's healthy enough, and practiced enough, and the team is going to benefit from it.

to be fair, don't undersell knowledge and having been in the system. Given, marshall has been here for 1.5 years now, so I agree with your overall conclusion.

g-money
01-09-2013, 12:11 AM
I meant no disrespect to Josh. I think he does his job well. He comes on and defends hard to give the big guys a break. I just don't think he can give the team a lot of minutes. His fouling is a an issue too as pointed out. Without Kelly someone else needs to step up with Josh taking a few more minutes that normal. That's all.
Just my opinion.

My take on the fouling issue is that Josh is just another in a long line of Duke bigs to be an easy target for the refs. Need to even up the free throw differential? Matt Christensen's not around anymore, so Hairston's your man. Don't look the wrong way, Josh.

I have lots of other conspiracy theories too. Don't get me started on auto mechanics.

ArtVandelay
01-09-2013, 12:26 AM
27 Points, 5 boards, 5 assists, 4 steals. #Quinning.

licc85
01-09-2013, 12:47 AM
27 Points, 5 boards, 5 assists, 4 steals. #Quinning.

Don't forget: Only 1 turnover

toooskies
01-09-2013, 01:28 AM
There's really got to be some point this year where Marshall starts making enough progress to take some of Josh's minutes. Just based on raw physical ability alone, Marshall is just such a better option as a backup. Better rebounder, better shot blocker/changer, better length, size, leaping ability, speed, and basically everything on offense. The only things that Josh has on Marshall are probably knowledge, having been in the system for 1 more year, leadership, and MAYBE screen setting. That stress fracture in his foot is probably going to rob MP3 of his potential this year. (Having Zoubek flashbacks) But you just can't convince me that Josh Hairston is a better player (even right now) than Marshall Plumlee.

Obviously, Coach K knows this team infinity times better than me, and he has a good reason for how he sets his rotation, so I'm not questioning it. Josh is probably in there for a very good reason. I just think eventually, Marshall is going to get in there, when he's healthy enough, and practiced enough, and the team is going to benefit from it.

I hope he gets to that point, too. I didn't want to start a big Josh discussion. It just seemed that whenever he was in during the 2nd half, Clemson would target him. But, teams seem to miss shots around him-- I'd love to find some plus-minus stats for the team. Ultimately, I don't think the difference will matter either way unless Ryan's issues are chronic.

Des Esseintes
01-09-2013, 03:28 AM
I plead guilty to a case of "over-the-top doom and gloom". I, like many others, have been spoiled by the great Duke teams of the past that struck fear into the hearts of our opponents.

Can you please direct me to which Duke teams of the past "struck fear into the hearts of our opponents"? Because I remember our last title team not being taken seriously by national media all season long and labeled by large parts of its own fan base as not a vintage squad. Or do you mean our first title team that was a #2 seed and couldn't win its own conference? Or do you mean our third title team that was given up for dead after Boozer went down? Or do you mean the dominant '99 team that failed to win a title? Am I wrong that what seems to unite those teams is not that they were populated by warlocks, ebola, tarantulas, inflation, and other scary things but rather that they were very good at playing basketball? Much like this year's team?


This year's team doesn't do that - and I'm learning to cope with the fact that that's okay. But the "Jekyll and Hyde" 1st half/2nd half performances of this team IS troubling (to me, at least).

Dude, you have been around awhile. I know you've heard the term "Duke run." It's one of the defining characteristics of K's program to play 50/50 with an opponent for large stretches of the game--and put them away with a burst of overwhelming force somewhere during the proceedings. It's insane to complain about a feature on this team that has appeared on every other great K team. It's doubly insane to do so following a game in which we outscored Clemson by almost identical amounts for each half. A 28-point conference victory, fer Chrissake!


Saturday's game will tell us a lot. If we can win that game, I'll feel better about our chances to turn it on when we need to. We shall see - without Kelly, it could be tough. OTOH, we could blow them out by 30. Nobody KNOWS what will happen in ANY game. Still, the first-half woes of this team are worrisome, when considering their national championship potential.

Not useful for determining national championship potential:
Duke 76, Louisville (#4 in kenpom) 71
Duke 89, Minnesota (#9) 71
Duke 73, Ohio State (#11) 68
Duke 75, Kentucky (#10) 68
Duke 67, VCU (#12) 58

"Will tell us a lot":
Duke, perhaps minus Ryan Kelly, versus hugely disappointing N.C. State (#35).

Bob Green
01-09-2013, 04:51 AM
Way too many turnovers. That Clemson press wasn't as good as we made it look.

The Clemson press benefitted from Ryan Kelly not being in the game. Kelly normally inbounds the ball, which is where multiple mistakes were made. I suspect the team will be running full court press drills today.

hillsborodevil
01-09-2013, 07:10 AM
Can you please direct me to which Duke teams of the past "struck fear into the hearts of our opponents"? Because I remember our last title team not being taken seriously by national media all season long and labeled by large parts of its own fan base as not a vintage squad. Or do you mean our first title team that was a #2 seed and couldn't win its own conference? Or do you mean our third title team that was given up for dead after Boozer went down? Or do you mean the dominant '99 team that failed to win a title? Am I wrong that what seems to unite those teams is not that they were populated by warlocks, ebola, tarantulas, inflation, and other scary things but rather that they were very good at playing basketball? Much like this year's team?).

The 1992 Team - Rock Star status - would pour it on for a full 40 minutes - very special team indeed


Dude, you have been around awhile. I know you've heard the term "Duke run." It's one of the defining characteristics of K's program to play 50/50 with an opponent for large stretches of the game--and put them away with a burst of overwhelming force somewhere during the proceedings. It's insane to complain about a feature on this team that has appeared on every other great K team. It's doubly insane to do so following a game in which we outscored Clemson by almost identical amounts for each half. A 28-point conference victory, fer Chrissake!).

True Story



Not useful for determining national championship potential:
Duke 76, Louisville (#4 in kenpom) 71
Duke 89, Minnesota (#9) 71
Duke 73, Ohio State (#11) 68
Duke 75, Kentucky (#10) 68
Duke 67, VCU (#12) 58

"Will tell us a lot":
Duke, perhaps minus Ryan Kelly, versus hugely disappointing N.C. State (#35).

We can throw out the record books when playing UNC and State.

slower
01-09-2013, 08:09 AM
Really? You have to go back to when we beat two top-5 teams in a row in order to find a game in which we haven't won by double figures. I think you also have to go back to 2010 to find a single ACC win with a bigger margin than tonight.

We just beat CLEMSON. Let that sink in for a minute. Did you watch last night's game? Remember the start of the game, when we missed our first 9 shots? Remember that part of the second half where we turned it over several times in a row against their press? Remember the past few games, where we looked like we were sleepwalking through the first half? Last night, we beat CLEMSON. At home.

Quinn is playing GREAT. As was Ryan, before the injury. Seth has been up and down, but fairly consistently good. Rasheed appears to have hit some kind of wall, mentally or physically. Mason appears to be regressing in several areas. Tyler is pretty steady, and Josh is what he is. Amile and Alex looked fairly good last night, and Marshall is still an unknown quantity.

Once again, I admit to being spoiled by previous dominant Duke teams. If we can beat State in Raleigh, especially if we can do it without Ryan, I'll breathe easier about our long-term chances. And, yes, I know, this is considered by many to be a game we could/should/will lose. We shall see. Despite any bold or confident predictions, we could lose this game by double figures. Of course, we could also win by 30. Cautious optimism, but it's gonna be tough without Ryan.

dyedwab
01-09-2013, 09:09 AM
We just beat CLEMSON. Let that sink in for a minute. Did you watch last night's game? Remember the start of the game, when we missed our first 9 shots? Remember that part of the second half where we turned it over several times in a row against their press? Remember the past few games, where we looked like we were sleepwalking through the first half? Last night, we beat CLEMSON. At home.

No, we didn't just BEAT Clemson. We blew them out. Even though our offense took a long time to get started (can anyone remember a full segment from TV TO to TV TO in which we were held scoreless before like the start of last night's game) and even though we had trouble with the press after Ryan went down. We won by 28 points and held them to 40 for the entire game. That, by any stretch, is a blowout.

I've been generally concerned by our slow starts, but last night didn't bother me as much. As opposed to some other games, we were playing good defense, we were hustling to loose balls and beating Clemson to them, and we were cleaning up the glass. What wasn't happening? We weren't hitting shots - part of that was us and part of that was Clemson playing tight, physical, good defense.

And re: slow starts. I'd look at Kedsy's response to me in one of the recent post game threads which shows that, well, even against good teams, in games we have run, we might not have started so well....

Billy Dat
01-09-2013, 09:56 AM
I grant you that the first half was an offensive offensive display on both sides, but especially the Clemson side. It is hard to judge how good our defense really is because both Clemson and Wake missed a ton of open shots. Coach Brownell placed a lot of the blame on Duke's general pressure, guys don't catch in rhythm and rush their shot. I hope so. 12% shooting for Clemson in the first half, we shot 29%.

That being said, Quinn Cook was efficient as heck. It is a big deal that we now have proof that another guy in our starting line-up can put up 20-25 points. It was great that arguably all of his shots came in the natural flow of the offense. His growth has been amazing and is so important to the team because his defense has also been solid. The first half drive where he froze the big at the elbow with that stutter step shoulder fake was FILTHY!

The Kelly injury is very concerning because he has really been our best player since we became #1. As someone else pointed out, swapping Hairston or Thornton for Kelly in the starting line-up suddenly places a lot more scoring burden on others - Cook and Rasheed, for example. Maybe Cook is ready for it, but it will make it that much easier to double Mason. I would guess that we'd go Thornton and run 4 around 1 ala the Orlando Magic Dwight Howard era teams.

I side with those praising Hairston's effectiveness and agree that his knowledge and ability to execute our defensive scheme trumps the individual shortcomings people are highlighting. It's no small thing to be in the right place at the right time as the defense rotates. Failure to do so leads to wide open lay-ups and 3 point shots. When those open shots happen, it's not always easy to immediately see who was the culprit, so you back up the DVR and notice someone 15 feet from the shot who messed up. Rookies generally stink at that stuff, Rasheed is a rare exception. Plus, he sets much better screens then the rookies which is another "invisible" thing that is hugely important. That being said, if Kelly is out for an extended period of time, K probably has to reconsider the rotation a bit, I don't just think Hairston moves up to the starting 5.

In terms of Mason's offensive game, I think we all got a little overenthusiastic by his hot start. By all accounts, both Curry and Ryan were better scorers then Mason headed into the season. The fact that Mason started so great makes us forget that. He always had that spin into the lane hook. This year, he added that effective baseline bull rush. Now, teams are defending those two plays, so I think he needs to add a Kevin McHale style counter or two. He showed brief glimpses of that stuff earlier this year, but I have to say that I also like his decisions to kick out. We get TONS of great looks from 3 on his passes. Plus, he's rebounding like a machine. I agree that he isn't contesting as many shots, but I like that he's not getting into foul trouble. I am not worried about him at all - aside from the fact that his FTs are regressing to the norm.

I think there is too much worry about Sheed's offense. His defense is off the charts good. Pay attention the few minutes he sits on the bench and see what happens to our perimeter D. It drops off. His scoring will come back.

As for Alex and Amile, I actually thought Alex did better then Amile in his limited minutes. I focused on him solo and thought that his defensive rotations were really good. In fact, I watched him on one sequence where he was defending a pick and roll and thought his slow rotation would lead to a man being open under the hoop. He recovered just in time and the quick close led to a bad pass and turnover. Amile, on the other hand, I thought was pretty quiet despite his steal. I noticed he was frequently out of position, set ineffective screens, and got pushed around on rebounds. He got almost double Murphs minutes though so the coaches must have seen something else.

I do want to credit Clemson's defense. I think they made it hard for us to get what we usually want. Part of the reason Cook exploded was because Booker limited Mason 1 on 1, Curry was locked up well and Kelly went down.

Lar77
01-09-2013, 10:04 AM
No, we didn't just BEAT Clemson. We blew them out. Even though our offense took a long time to get started (can anyone remember a full segment from TV TO to TV TO in which we were held scoreless before like the start of last night's game) and even though we had trouble with the press after Ryan went down. We won by 28 points and held them to 40 for the entire game. That, by any stretch, is a blowout.

I've been generally concerned by our slow starts, but last night didn't bother me as much. As opposed to some other games, we were playing good defense, we were hustling to loose balls and beating Clemson to them, and we were cleaning up the glass. What wasn't happening? We weren't hitting shots - part of that was us and part of that was Clemson playing tight, physical, good defense.

And re: slow starts. I'd look at Kedsy's response to me in one of the recent post game threads which shows that, well, even against good teams, in games we have run, we might not have started so well....

Agree with what you wrote here. The refs in the first half were in la-la land and that affected a lot. Clemson played very good chippy defense and we had trouble just running plays (and in some cases just running).It reminded me of the days when Clemson looked like 5 guys who could play tight end. Our defense was outstanding and even their easy misses were the result of our pressure (we weren't shy about incidental contact either). We lost focus when Clemson went to the press but Coach got us back on track. We shoot 70% from the FT line and it's over a 30 point margin!

NSDukeFan
01-09-2013, 10:13 AM
I really love Amile's energy - it's like there is 3 of him out there. More of a fan comment than a coaching comment - the game goes up 3 notches on the fun meter with him on the floor.

Would love to see Quinn do more of the driving he does in the last five minutes. So hard to stop - and leaves everything else open. Maybe this is always true in regard to your point guard, but he's the key to the level at which the team plays.
I think my favorite play of the game might have been when Amile got the steal, layup and three point play. Cameron looked like it was rocking at that point and the game was over in my mind. (You could certainly argue it was over before then, with the slow pace and the way the team has been defending.)

Before leaving the game in the most scary way possible, Ryan Kelly continued his red-hot streak from beyond the arc, going two for two on the evening in the first several minutes. It's a shame he went down, cause he might have had another four or five triple night from out there. Ryan was feeling it. He's now 21 of 31 from three in the last nine games. That's just ridiculously good. He's without a doubt the finest shooting big man in the country.

Which is why losing him for any long period would be devastating. Ryan's Euro game is the perfect counter to Mason Plumlee's low-post game in the frontcourt. Want to take away Mason's scoring ability in the key by doubling down hard? Then sit back and enjoy as Little Dirk Notwitzki buries you from the perimeter. By March, this pair could be virtually unstoppable on the floor together. Barring injury, I don't see a particularly good way of stopping it.
I understand the fear of feet, and I am certainly being picky, but Tim Krumrie (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNzWp_qQGo8), Joe Theisman and others might disagree.

I agree with others that this was a very good win. This was certainly not the prettiest win ever; the turnovers against the press when Ryan was out and the slow shooting start weren't enjoyable. Fortunately, when the team had the poor shooting stretch to start the half, Clemson got up by a whopping 2? points, because Duke defended so well. Holding an ACC team to 10 points in a half and having Ryan outscore them in the first half was very impressive. It was also great to see the spectacular game that Quinn had. I have no idea how this team will finish the year, but the way the team is defending and the variety of big scorers in the starting line-up, it is nice to see how this team can beat with a variety of weapons. If someone is cold, there are others that can get hot, ways to get easy baskets and the team can defend until the team heats up offensively. This is a very fun team to watch. (Take this comment with a grain of salt, as I have really enjoyed watching all Duke teams.)

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-09-2013, 10:32 AM
Seriously, this is the last time I will comment on this, but I feel I have to say something about the Negative Nellies who have appeared on this board in the last few weeks and seem to pop up on every in-game and post-game thread complaining about playing time, missed free throws, uninspiring victories, or the ever vague "slow start." I've been posting here for six years and visiting the site since the old newsgroup days. I understand that a certain percentage of our fans will never be satisfied, and even after winning national championships they start worrying over the next year's starting line up.

I can't really articulate exactly why it's bothering me so much this season. Perhaps it is because, of all our teams in recent years, this particular team is actually overachieving to this point in the season. We've had teams that were more dominant, but were ranked preseason #1, and teams that were preseason top five, but ended up struggling at times. The 2010 team certainly overachieved, but they waited until March to do so.

All this team has done to date is win every game on a very difficult schedule. All they did last night was win a conference game, get lots of bench play, suffer an injury that sidelined out hottest player, and have another player obliterate their career high with a fantastic night - all while winning by nearly 30 points.

I know we all want our team to be the best it can be, and nit-picking the details is part of this internet culture we are all participating in, but we have a national player of the year candidate in Mason, potential all-conference players in Cook and Kelly, potential conference ROY in Sulaimon, a gutty senior leader and scorer in Curry, and a number of promising young guys who are clamoring for minutes. Can we not just please enjoy the fact that this team is playing really well together, has very good chemistry, and has about 5 different guys who can take over chunks of a game?

I'm really not going to address this again, because apparently I am in the minority on the board all of a sudden. I appreciate the chance to get it off my chest. I will return to enjoying this great ride this season and rooting for a very good team with an excellent coach.

/gets off of soap box
//go Duke

Billy Dat
01-09-2013, 10:45 AM
I will not return to enjoying this great ride this season and rooting for a very good team with an excellent coach.

Cosign - but Mountain, don't let your anger at the pessimists turn you away from a great season. Assume you meant a w instead of t.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-09-2013, 10:46 AM
I will not return to enjoying this great ride this season and rooting for a very good team with an excellent coach.


[Cosign - but Mountain, don't let your anger at the pessimists turn you away from a great season. Assume you meant a w instead of t.

Ahem. Yes. Thanks. No one can turn me from my love of my team. :)

Jderf
01-09-2013, 10:52 AM
Seriously, this is the last time I will comment on this, but I feel I have to say something about the Negative Nellies who have appeared on this board in the last few weeks and seem to pop up on every in-game and post-game thread complaining about playing time, missed free throws, uninspiring victories, or the ever vague "slow start." I've been posting here for six years and visiting the site since the old newsgroup days. I understand that a certain percentage of our fans will never be satisfied, and even after winning national championships they start worrying over the next year's starting line up.

I can't really articulate exactly why it's bothering me so much this season. Perhaps it is because, of all our teams in recent years, this particular team is actually overachieving to this point in the season. We've had teams that were more dominant, but were ranked preseason #1, and teams that were preseason top five, but ended up struggling at times. The 2010 team certainly overachieved, but they waited until March to do so.

All this team has done to date is win every game on a very difficult schedule. All they did last night was win a conference game, get lots of bench play, suffer an injury that sidelined out hottest player, and have another player obliterate their career high with a fantastic night - all while winning by nearly 30 points.

I know we all want our team to be the best it can be, and nit-picking the details is part of this internet culture we are all participating in, but we have a national player of the year candidate in Mason, potential all-conference players in Cook and Kelly, potential conference ROY in Sulaimon, a gutty senior leader and scorer in Curry, and a number of promising young guys who are clamoring for minutes. Can we not just please enjoy the fact that this team is playing really well together, has very good chemistry, and has about 5 different guys who can take over chunks of a game?

I'm really not going to address this again, because apparently I am in the minority on the board all of a sudden. I appreciate the chance to get it off my chest. I will return to enjoying this great ride this season and rooting for a very good team with an excellent coach.

/gets off of soap box
//go Duke

Don't confuse volume with popularity. The minority may be quite vocal, but they are still the minority. I think the vast majority of posters will agree with me when I say that I've enjoyed this season immensely and will continue to do so. We have a special team that has met every challenge to date. What more can you ask for?

Now, back to fretting over rebounding, foot tweaks, shooting slumps, and games we won by 20 when we should have won by 22.

Lar77
01-09-2013, 11:16 AM
Seriously, this is the last time I will comment on this, but I feel I have to say something about the Negative Nellies who have appeared on this board in the last few weeks and seem to pop up on every in-game and post-game thread complaining about playing time, missed free throws, uninspiring victories, or the ever vague "slow start." I've been posting here for six years and visiting the site since the old newsgroup days. I understand that a certain percentage of our fans will never be satisfied, and even after winning national championships they start worrying over the next year's starting line up.

I can't really articulate exactly why it's bothering me so much this season. Perhaps it is because, of all our teams in recent years, this particular team is actually overachieving to this point in the season. We've had teams that were more dominant, but were ranked preseason #1, and teams that were preseason top five, but ended up struggling at times. The 2010 team certainly overachieved, but they waited until March to do so.

All this team has done to date is win every game on a very difficult schedule. All they did last night was win a conference game, get lots of bench play, suffer an injury that sidelined out hottest player, and have another player obliterate their career high with a fantastic night - all while winning by nearly 30 points.

I know we all want our team to be the best it can be, and nit-picking the details is part of this internet culture we are all participating in, but we have a national player of the year candidate in Mason, potential all-conference players in Cook and Kelly, potential conference ROY in Sulaimon, a gutty senior leader and scorer in Curry, and a number of promising young guys who are clamoring for minutes. Can we not just please enjoy the fact that this team is playing really well together, has very good chemistry, and has about 5 different guys who can take over chunks of a game?

I'm really not going to address this again, because apparently I am in the minority on the board all of a sudden. I appreciate the chance to get it off my chest. I will return to enjoying this great ride this season and rooting for a very good team with an excellent coach.

/gets off of soap box
//go Duke

Second (or third?) this. How can you not love watching this team? And why is Curry not potentially all-conference (a nit pick to your excellent post)?:D

COYS
01-09-2013, 11:18 AM
Agree with what you wrote here. The refs in the first half were in la-la land and that affected a lot. Clemson played very good chippy defense and we had trouble just running plays (and in some cases just running).It reminded me of the days when Clemson looked like 5 guys who could play tight end. Our defense was outstanding and even their easy misses were the result of our pressure (we weren't shy about incidental contact either). We lost focus when Clemson went to the press but Coach got us back on track. We shoot 70% from the FT line and it's over a 30 point margin!

I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned more by those who are disheartened by Duke's lack of offense in the first half. This was an insanely physical game with both sides pushing, grabbing, and holding relentlessly off the ball and even when guarding the ball. Jump shooters (on both sides) were fouled while shooting a number of times with no call. At least the refs were consistent. Anyway, this changed the nature of the game quite a bit. Guys not named Quinn or Ryan missed a few open looks, but for the most part, the misses were quality shots that were nevertheless closely contested. Honestly, our free throw shooting is the only troubling stat from the game. This team is proving they can play defense against physically imposing teams. However, the biggest reason our OEfficiency has slipped a bit over the past few games is that our free throw shooting has been very erratic. Mason has gone back to being a bit inconsistent. Meanwhile, Seth and Rasheed have struggled a bit, as well. If teams are going to play us physically, we need to hit our free throws.

With regard to the idea that Duke can "scare" opposing teams, I sympathize with those who feel that this team is not quite as imposing as some past Duke teams. However, I think this feeling comes from the nostalgia associated with past teams more than it does any objective measure by which the current team is deficient. While it is true that early entry into the NBA has deprived Duke of some elite talent (Kyrie could be a junior this year looking to double up on NPOY honors, etc), that is true of every school. I don't think this Duke team would beat, say, the 2001 team more than 35-40% of the time if they were to play 100 times.

However, we are fooling ourselves if we think the 2001 team was that much MORE dominant than the current team. That team dropped games to a UNC team that ended up having far less NBA talent than expected and a Virginia team devoid of any NBA talent. It struggled against a physical but far less talented Wake team at Winston-Salem, coming away with a less than inspiring win. It completely choked away a game against a good Stanford team. It needed a miracle comeback to win @Maryland against a team whose best NBA player has been Steve Blake, which isn't saying much. I was too young to really remember the 1991 and 92 squads, so the 2001 team is the "standard" for me with regard to Duke championship teams. However, when I go back and watch some of the NCAA tourney games, I am amazed at how the actual games differs from my memory of them. Jason Williams was incredible and unstoppable at times, but he made a pretty good number of boneheaded turnovers. Boozer, an amazing finisher around the basket, would disappear for stretches, failing to establish position in the post. The team was deadly from outside, but jacked up a TON of threes, with a good number being more than a little questionable. Heck, I went back to watch the championship game against Michigan from '92 and was surprised how ugly of a game it was on offense for large stretches. Hurley and Laettner both struggled at times. My child-self remembers that game being a smooth and elegant march to the title.

My primary point is that any differences between current Duke teams and past Duke teams are most likely incremental rather than substantial. When the level of competition in college basketball is factored in, I'd say they are probably pretty equal. As I said, I completely understand where some of you guys are coming from. My memories of the 2001 team (and the 1999 team) are of the amazing moments. It helps that the 2001 team played at a fast pace and put a lot of points on the board, which is more fun to watch than a slugfest like last night. However, at the end of the day, the body of work of this team puts them squarely in the conversation as a championship quality Duke team that, when the level of competition in NCAA basketball is factored in, probably has just as good of a chance of many of the past teams to reach a Final Four and hoist a trophy.

Monmouth77
01-09-2013, 11:41 AM
Can you please direct me to which Duke teams of the past "struck fear into the hearts of our opponents"? Because I remember our last title team not being taken seriously by national media all season long and labeled by large parts of its own fan base as not a vintage squad. Or do you mean our first title team that was a #2 seed and couldn't win its own conference? Or do you mean our third title team that was given up for dead after Boozer went down? Or do you mean the dominant '99 team that failed to win a title? Am I wrong that what seems to unite those teams is not that they were populated by warlocks, ebola, tarantulas, inflation, and other scary things but rather that they were very good at playing basketball? Much like this year's team?



Dude, you have been around awhile. I know you've heard the term "Duke run." It's one of the defining characteristics of K's program to play 50/50 with an opponent for large stretches of the game--and put them away with a burst of overwhelming force somewhere during the proceedings. It's insane to complain about a feature on this team that has appeared on every other great K team. It's doubly insane to do so following a game in which we outscored Clemson by almost identical amounts for each half. A 28-point conference victory, fer Chrissake!



Not useful for determining national championship potential:
Duke 76, Louisville (#4 in kenpom) 71
Duke 89, Minnesota (#9) 71
Duke 73, Ohio State (#11) 68
Duke 75, Kentucky (#10) 68
Duke 67, VCU (#12) 58

"Will tell us a lot":
Duke, perhaps minus Ryan Kelly, versus hugely disappointing N.C. State (#35).

I hesitate to jump in the fray, but the level of sarcasm in this post is really a bit much.

There is no doubt that Duke has won impressive games against an overwhelmingly difficult schedule this season, and that a January road loss at NC State, perhaps minus Ryan Kelly, may not tell us much about the team's prospects for continued success.

Surely, however, it is an important and interesting game. And if Kelly does play, it could be a match-up of the ACC's best two teams at full strength.

In those circumstances, I think the game will give Duke fans a basis to assess where the team stands now-- in January, a few months into the season, with guys playing through aches and pains (or real injuries in the case of Seth and now Ryan), and with opposing teams game-planning to stop us based on tape of our early season success, etc.

We are not the same team we were in November and neither is NC State. And championships are won in March and April, not November and December (though the early wins obviously help with seeding).

Championships aren't won in January either, but a big ACC road game may very well "tell us a lot" about where the team is now, how it handles a tough crowd, and whether it can respond against quality opposition to the double teams and physical play that opposing coaches have gameplanned to slow us down after watching a bunch of tape.

Billy Dat
01-09-2013, 12:01 PM
That's because R Kelly was on the bench.

Glad to hear he's no longer Trapped in the Closet
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFosUj6A22c


I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned more by those who are disheartened by Duke's lack of offense in the first half. This was an insanely physical game with both sides pushing, grabbing, and holding relentlessly off the ball and even when guarding the ball.

I thought the refs let a lot go in the Wake game, too. I generally prefer when they swallow the whistle. Has anyone noticed a trend across the conference - maybe its too early to tell.

mo.st.dukie
01-09-2013, 12:02 PM
In those circumstances, I think the game will give Duke fans a basis to assess where the team stands now-- in January, a few months into the season, with guys playing through aches and pains (or real injuries in the case of Seth and now Ryan), and with opposing teams game-planning to stop us based on tape of our early season success, etc.

We are not the same team we were in November and neither is NC State. And championships are won in March and April, not November and December (though the early wins obviously help with seeding).

Championships aren't won in January either, but a big ACC road game may very well "tell us a lot" about where the team is now, how it handles a tough crowd, and whether it can respond against quality opposition to the double teams and physical play that opposing coaches have gameplanned to slow us down after watching a bunch of tape.


It doesn't tell you much other than how both teams played in that one game on that one day. The 2010 team lost 3 games in January, all on the road and 2 of those games were absolute beat downs @Georgetown and @NCSU. That team had a great November and December too but didn't have the same kind of opposition that this team (or last year's team) had in the early season so those road losses weren't viewed as "Duke getting worse" but rather "Duke isn't that good especially on the road." Of course we all know that the team caught fire in mid-February and had a heck of a run (and yet still lost their last regular season game on the road). Pretty much every championship team losses multiple games, most of which come in conference play.

Kedsy
01-09-2013, 12:09 PM
The 2010 team certainly overachieved, but they waited until March to do so.

I agree with most of what you say, but at this exact moment in 2010, Duke was 13-1 and ranked #5 in the AP poll (with the one loss a four point loss in a tough true road game at Wisconsin). It's not like they waited until March to play well.

jimsumner
01-09-2013, 12:24 PM
Imagine for the sake of argument that you are a knowledgeable college-basketball observer, with no rooting interest in Duke one way or another.

You stumble onto this thread. A thread associated with a 15-0, top-ranked team coming off a 28-point conference win.

Do you think there's just a chance that your response might be something along the lines of "this is the most spoiled, entitled fan base I've ever seen?" Just a chance?

gumbomoop
01-09-2013, 12:24 PM
Don't confuse volume with popularity. The minority may be quite vocal, but they are still the minority. I think the vast majority of posters will agree with me when I say that I've enjoyed this season immensely and will continue to do so. We have a special team that has met every challenge to date. What more can you ask for?

Now, back to fretting over rebounding, foot tweaks, shooting slumps, and games we won by 20 when we should have won by 22.

I like Jderf's post here, especially for the deliberate and whimsical "mixed message" it contains.

That is, like Jderf, I've enjoyed the season, even while, in every game, I fret - complain and even curse, actually - about players, plays, Mason's footwork, Tyler's really dumb passes, this and that about Josh, Quinn's occasional ill-advised shot, K's scowls, etc.

But it's a roller coaster in every game, for almost simultaneously I'm impressed with Mason's and Quinn's striking improvement, Seth's confidence, Ryan's versatility, Tyler's D-disruption, etc. I've said before and repeat here, I personally am always surprised when Duke loses. At the beginning of every game, I expect Duke to win.

I also expect to complain and curse during every game, and to be alternately joyous and then irritated no end until that moment when Duke is safely in the lead at some point in the last 5 minutes.

Perhaps EK posters who are pessimists worry, before each game, that Duke will, or just might, lose. We optimists think Duke's gonna win all the time, understanding that occasionally we'll be disappointed.

But among the things that unite all of us is our great hope that Duke will some soon season win NC #5. And it turns out that this season Duke's real good, so now our hopes are way up. But ironically - roller coaster- that makes us more edgy, because the occasional player-flaws and the bad plays that will of course happen some in every game just drive us crazy.

Because this year, as every year, we are The Entitled. But especially this year, because just now we've sort of got it in our heads that our guys really are one of the favorites. We expect them to go very far. If only they wouldn't make those bad plays. If only Mason really is a legit NPOY candidate. Is he or isn't he? If only we could depend on Seth to be brilliant. Will his not-exactly-clear injury bite him - and more importantly, us - at some horrible moment in March? Will Ryan miss a game or 2, or 6 weeks? And whenever he returns, will he rebound? If only Tyler continues to hit some of those 3s. Or will he miss 12 in a row, and commit dumb fouls?

What more can we ask for? About the only thing that would satisfy all of us would be some sort of guarantee that Duke will end this season at, say, 37-3. And admittedly even that would not entirely satisfy all of us. For, back to fretting, we'd need to know more about that 3.

jcastranio
01-09-2013, 12:30 PM
I will always take a good defensive effort over a good offensive effort anytime.

The poor "start," I think, can be traced to several factors:

1. Little extra passing the first five minutes - felt like one pass and then a shot.

2. Rasheed and Mason did a lot of the shooting to little effect. Rasheed missed some 3's, then some free throws. Mason took several awkward, contested shots that left us no chance to rebound. He got blocked twice on one play going straight at a big man (didn't have a good angle to draw the foul, just to get his shot stuffed).

3. Seth forced a few early - the Clemson defense was very energetic early. We should move the ball around more early and let that defensive effort wear itself out. I think some patience is needed - maybe Cook can help control this. Teams will play us very tough early - taking quick, difficult shots plays right into that defense.

As Ryan got more touches and Tyler came in - we seemed to settle down more.

Mason is devastating when he passes out of the double team. I would much rather see that than the awkward shot. He is a beast, but he is not an offensive machine.

I liked Alex and Amile in their appearances. The help defense is not "natural" and "easy" for them yet, but it is better.

The turnovers against the press were inexcusable. C'mon guys, you learn in high school ball how to break the press without breaking a sweat. I think K will straighten that out - even without Ryan.

killerleft
01-09-2013, 12:40 PM
There's really got to be some point this year where Marshall starts making enough progress to take some of Josh's minutes. Just based on raw physical ability alone, Marshall is just such a better option as a backup. Better rebounder, better shot blocker/changer, better length, size, leaping ability, speed, and basically everything on offense. The only things that Josh has on Marshall are probably knowledge, having been in the system for 1 more year, leadership, and MAYBE screen setting. That stress fracture in his foot is probably going to rob MP3 of his potential this year. (Having Zoubek flashbacks) But you just can't convince me that Josh Hairston is a better player (even right now) than Marshall Plumlee.

Obviously, Coach K knows this team infinity times better than me, and he has a good reason for how he sets his rotation, so I'm not questioning it. Josh is probably in there for a very good reason. I just think eventually, Marshall is going to get in there, when he's healthy enough, and practiced enough, and the team is going to benefit from it.

I hope you are correct, and maybe you are. But from the admittedly small sample that is Marshall's major college experience so far, I have seen nothing that would make me think he would be a better option than Josh. At the very least, Marshall has to get used to the speed of the game, and be able to react quicker (maybe be more intuitive is what I mean here) to the developing situations in the paint. Translation? He'll definitely improve as time goes by, but for now, he deserves to be the 8th or 9th option guy for Duke. If he can show Coach K he deserves more time, THEN we can start projecting what might be his real potential.

Josh is underappreciated, and he does some very important things for Duke. I don't remember who said Josh couldn't stand up to contact, but that gave me my laugh for the day.

Kedsy
01-09-2013, 12:49 PM
Imagine for the sake of argument that you are a knowledgeable college-basketball observer, with no rooting interest in Duke one way or another.

You stumble onto this thread. A thread associated with a 15-0, top-ranked team coming off a 28-point conference win.

Do you think there's just a chance that your response might be something along the lines of "this is the most spoiled, entitled fan base I've ever seen?" Just a chance?

You've only just noticed?

jcastranio
01-09-2013, 12:53 PM
I hope you are correct, and maybe you are. But from the admittedly small sample that is Marshall's major college experience so far, I have seen nothing that would make me think he would be a better option than Josh. At the very least, Marshall has to get used to the speed of the game, and be able to react quicker (maybe be more intuitive is what I mean here) to the developing situations in the paint. Translation? He'll definitely improve as time goes by, but for now, he deserves to be the 8th or 9th option guy for Duke. If he can show Coach K he deserves more time, THEN we can start projecting what might be his real potential.

Josh is underappreciated, and he does some very important things for Duke. I don't remember who said Josh couldn't stand up to contact, but that gave me my laugh for the day.

I agree with both of your thoughts. Marshall seems a little "frantic" out there during his minutes. I see great potential, but he isn't there yet.

Josh is more important to us than many give him credit for. He does throw his body around and he does understand the help defense scheme. He isn't afraid to take on point guards or seven footers. He communicates and brings energy. On fast breaks and cuts to the basket, he has had several great moments. The rest of his offensive package - ugh. I think that the fifteen foot jumper will start going down when he is a senior (like Lance Thomas). It is about confidence. For now, I would hope that jumper gets packed up unless the game is out of reach.

Should he start if Ryan can't go? Good question. We lose offense at the beginning of the game (which is a problem with us) and lose his energy and defense off the bench. Still, as a junior, he has earned it. I would rather see Amile or Alex get the start, with Josh in after 3 minutes and go from there. But hey, what do I know?

toooskies
01-09-2013, 01:00 PM
The objective strengths here are hard to beat:

-#1 AP/Coaches/RPI/BPI/KenPom/Sagarin, with all but KenPom by significant margins.
- As of now this is the most efficient Duke defense KenPom has ever recorded.
- We also are 3rd in the country from the 3-point line, but we're over 200th in ratio of 3s to 2s. It's like we're under-using our best weapon.
- We're estimated to have a 12.6% chance to go undefeated in the regular season.

I'd be scared if I needed to beat Duke.

toooskies
01-09-2013, 01:09 PM
I hope you are correct, and maybe you are. But from the admittedly small sample that is Marshall's major college experience so far, I have seen nothing that would make me think he would be a better option than Josh. At the very least, Marshall has to get used to the speed of the game, and be able to react quicker (maybe be more intuitive is what I mean here) to the developing situations in the paint. Translation? He'll definitely improve as time goes by, but for now, he deserves to be the 8th or 9th option guy for Duke. If he can show Coach K he deserves more time, THEN we can start projecting what might be his real potential.

Josh is underappreciated, and he does some very important things for Duke. I don't remember who said Josh couldn't stand up to contact, but that gave me my laugh for the day.

Actually, I thought that Marshall deserved a little more time in his brief appearance, but not because he's "better" than anyone (i.e. he's not going to be scoring or defending as successfully). I saw him running up and down the court, though, playing his heart out, colliding into his defender as he tried to set a post-up move. It's a great change-of-pace from Mason's more skilled approach, and I feel as though the contrasting styles may throw the other team's defense out of rhythm. Fewer minutes for Mason, but that might increase his effectiveness.

roywhite
01-09-2013, 01:24 PM
The Duke -- Clemson game in a nutshell:

The thrill of victory -- the agony of da feet





**hat tip to a TDD poster

Monmouth77
01-09-2013, 01:28 PM
It doesn't tell you much other than how both teams played in that one game on that one day. The 2010 team lost 3 games in January, all on the road and 2 of those games were absolute beat downs @Georgetown and @NCSU. That team had a great November and December too but didn't have the same kind of opposition that this team (or last year's team) had in the early season so those road losses weren't viewed as "Duke getting worse" but rather "Duke isn't that good especially on the road." Of course we all know that the team caught fire in mid-February and had a heck of a run (and yet still lost their last regular season game on the road). Pretty much every championship team losses multiple games, most of which come in conference play.

I don't think that you will find one sentence in my post that is contrary to what you have written here.

My point (one I made last season at a certain point as well-- I think before the late February road game at FSU, which ended up being arguably our best performance of the year) is that certain games can give you a pulse for the team at a point in time. And that it's worth getting excited about such games, and that it's worth looking to such games over the course of a season to see how the team is progressing.

The game against State is a big game that's worth getting excited about. I think the Pack will be pumped up and will defend better than their dreadful Pomeroy defense metric suggests, and it will be interesting to see how we respond, on the road, in a hostile environment. I expect it to be like some of the intense Maryland games from recent years past. I am also interested in seeing whether Mason can handle double teams a little bit better than he has the past few games, which will be important as the season progresses, and whether our guards can fight through contact a little better than they have in the past few games.

I am thrilled that the team is 15-0 against by far the toughest schedule of any top team to date.

I also want to see the team improve in areas where it can. Pretty sure the players and coaches want the same.

Not sure why such sentiments are construed as negative or unfounded.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-09-2013, 01:54 PM
Imagine for the sake of argument that you are a knowledgeable college-basketball observer, with no rooting interest in Duke one way or another.

You stumble onto this thread. A thread associated with a 15-0, top-ranked team coming off a 28-point conference win.

Do you think there's just a chance that your response might be something along the lines of "this is the most spoiled, entitled fan base I've ever seen?" Just a chance?

Thanks for articulating this. That's what I was talking my way around.


I agree with most of what you say, but at this exact moment in 2010, Duke was 13-1 and ranked #5 in the AP poll (with the one loss a four point loss in a tough true road game at Wisconsin). It's not like they waited until March to play well.

Good point, but I would argue that this year's team is, at the current time, has overachieved to a greater degree than 2010. They both started out in the bottom half of the top 10 preseason, but that 13-1 team hadn't faced the murder's row that this team has. The 2009-2010 team spent most of the season ranked between 6-10 in the polls. I'd say that this team has "overachieved more" - which I acknowledge is a weird concept.

Thanks to all the folks who have echoed my sentiment. I appreciate hearing that I'm not a lone voice in the woods.

Go Duke

Saratoga2
01-09-2013, 01:55 PM
I think coach K had it right when he pointed out that the most important thing is to develop the starters and then worry about developing the subs. To that end, we are seeing a tremendous improvement in Quinn in all phases of the game. Ryan also has shown that kind of development. He is so smart with lots of ways to score and is playing defense. Mason has hit his first tough spot during the last three games as teams are doubling him down. He has to learn to deal with that and I congratulate coach K for exposing him to some tougher nights with high TO's and less scoring. IN the long run he will learn to deal with double teams more effectively. Seth in my opinion is already there. What holds him back is the difficulty with his leg injury and probably limited conditioning. Rasheed is young and he has stumbled a little when acing very physical play. He still is playing well defensively and it is just a matter of time until he gains more confidence in his scoring.

We know what we get with Tyler and Josh. What interests me more is the play of Alex and Amile. If Ryan is down for a time it will be a boon to have those two ready to contribute. What a luxury to have two good 6'8" players ready to sub in. If Ryan is gone for a while, I wouldn't be too concerned since we have these two as backups

moonpie23
01-09-2013, 02:23 PM
Marshall is "out of position" frequently.....the little time he's seen has not allowed him to allow the game to come to him. He's got a short amount of time to make an impact. Not trying to say he's just over doing it, just saying there's not a lot of time for him to put together a decent "overview" of what he's capable of. He doesn't really get time to feel out the opponent much.....

jv001
01-09-2013, 04:17 PM
Thanks for articulating this. That's what I was talking my way around.



Good point, but I would argue that this year's team is, at the current time, has overachieved to a greater degree than 2010. They both started out in the bottom half of the top 10 preseason, but that 13-1 team hadn't faced the murder's row that this team has. The 2009-2010 team spent most of the season ranked between 6-10 in the polls. I'd say that this team has "overachieved more" - which I acknowledge is a weird concept.

Thanks to all the folks who have echoed my sentiment. I appreciate hearing that I'm not a lone voice in the woods.

Go Duke

Maybe this team has not overachieved and is just as good as their record. Three seniors that are very good players, a point guard that is just coming into his own and a freshman that is one of the best in the country. Plus they seem to really like each other and have each others back. GoDuke!

toooskies
01-09-2013, 05:45 PM
Maybe this team has not overachieved and is just as good as their record. Three seniors that are very good players, a point guard that is just coming into his own and a freshman that is one of the best in the country. Plus they seem to really like each other and have each others back. GoDuke!

I would say it's relative.

the 2012 team probably overachieved relative to their actual abilities but underachieved in terms of turning potential into ability. They won lots of games, but there wasn't a big margin for error and the weak points were apparent.

This year, we've probably overachieved in terms of realizing our potential-- nearly every starter is playing better than we would have thought before the season started. But that just means we're really good and should expect to win games.