What happens if Kentucky's freshmen stay in school?

[FerryFor50]

Kentucky's current class doesn't jump to the NBA as previously expected?

Currently, this is UK's class for next year:

SG Aaron Harrison
PG Andrew Harrison
SG James Young
PF Marcus Lee
PF Derek Willis
C Dakari Johnson

They have 2 seniors leaving (Julius Mays and Twany Beckham).

Nerlens Noel is a lock to leave. Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress are likely gone as well. I can't see Cauley-Stein leaving, but I suppose it's possible based on potential.

So what happens if only Noel and Goodwin leave?

4 departing players + 6 incoming players = too many players on the roster.

Does Cal start cutting guys from the roster again, like when he first arrived? Do players decommit? Redshirt?

You have to imagine the wheels will start to wobble on this machine if recruits start missing badly and staying extra years to develop.

[Dev11]

Kentucky's current class doesn't jump to the NBA as previously expected?

Currently, this is UK's class for next year:

SG Aaron Harrison
PG Andrew Harrison
SG James Young
PF Marcus Lee
PF Derek Willis
C Dakari Johnson

They have 2 seniors leaving (Julius Mays and Twany Beckham).

Nerlens Noel is a lock to leave. Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress are likely gone as well. I can't see Cauley-Stein leaving, but I suppose it's possible based on potential.

So what happens if only Noel and Goodwin leave?

4 departing players + 6 incoming players = too many players on the roster.

Does Cal start cutting guys from the roster again, like when he first arrived? Do players decommit? Redshirt?

You have to imagine the wheels will start to wobble on this machine if recruits start missing badly and staying extra years to develop.

If there are 10 guys on the roster, 7 or 8 of them will play. At most, 2 guys could leave this summer or after first semester, but the machine isn't getting derailed until Calipari leaves, whether by NCAA force or by NBA interest. He's just too good.

[Billy Dat]

Cal's program is built on the one and done. Most guys go there with that expectation so, even if logic dictates that they shouldn't leave, there is strong incentive to leave. As long as a guy is a first round draftee, I can't see Cal advising him to stay because his pitch is all about getting that guaranteed money. Right now, Cauley-Stein, as a 7 footer, seems to be projecting as a first round lock and his stock is only going to go up. I think the top 4 are gone, unless someone gets hurt, and the scenario you paint won't be an issue next year. Of course, Kyrie proved you can get hurt and still be a top pick. It will be interesting to see what will happen if there is an eventual bottleneck. It will also be interesting to see if there is an eventual shake out over lackluster NBA performance. That hasn't been an issue so far as most of Cal's big talents have proven themselves in the NBA - Rose, Wall, Bledsoe, Cousins, Davis, Kidd-Gilchrest, Teague, Knight...ok, now I am getting depressed. Not all of these guys are stars, yet, but most of them seem to be keepers.

[Jderf]

It will also be interesting to see if there is an eventual shake out over lackluster NBA performance. That hasn't been an issue so far as most of Cal's big talents have proven themselves in the NBA - Rose, Wall, Bledsoe, Cousins, Davis, Kidd-Gilchrest, Teague, Knight...ok, now I am getting depressed. Not all of these guys are stars, yet, but most of them seem to be keepers.

Yeah, with current track record of Calipari's recruits in the NBA, I think he can easily afford to have a few players flame-out in the league without taking a negative hit to his reputation. It's hard to see that as something that would derail his prolonged hot streak. The only two reasons I could foresee that might end Kentucky's reign as the top recruiting destination would be (a) for Calipari to jump ship for an NBA gig, or (b) for Kentucky to get slammed by the NCAA investigation that everyone seems to be waiting on. Neither of those seems particularly likely at this point.

[BigWayne]

Kentucky's current class doesn't jump to the NBA as previously expected?

Currently, this is UK's class for next year:

SG Aaron Harrison
PG Andrew Harrison
SG James Young
PF Marcus Lee
PF Derek Willis
C Dakari Johnson

They have 2 seniors leaving (Julius Mays and Twany Beckham).

Nerlens Noel is a lock to leave. Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress are likely gone as well. I can't see Cauley-Stein leaving, but I suppose it's possible based on potential.

So what happens if only Noel and Goodwin leave?

4 departing players + 6 incoming players = too many players on the roster.

Does Cal start cutting guys from the roster again, like when he first arrived? Do players decommit? Redshirt?

You have to imagine the wheels will start to wobble on this machine if recruits start missing badly and staying extra years to develop.

They only have 10 guys on scholarship right now. With the two seniors and the three open spots, they have 5 spots covered out of the 6 if nobody goes pro.
They also still have 4 offers out to uncommitted HS kids.

http://www.verbalcommits.com/schools/kentucky

[MarkD83]

If you want an answer to your question just ask Patrick Patterson.

I believe Coach Cal announced he was going pro before Patrick and his family decided that he was going to go pro.

[tommy]

If you want an answer to your question just ask Patrick Patterson.

I believe Coach Cal announced he was going pro before Patrick and his family decided that he was going to go pro.

Patterson was not even close to a one-and-done. He played three years in Lexington.

To me the more interesting "what if" is "what if these high school kids start to realize that very few of Coach Cal's one-and-dones turn into stars in the NBA?"

08-09: no one-and-dones
09-10: Wall (disappointing so far); Cousins (knucklehead); Bledsoe (very good backup, but a backup nonetheless) and Orton (is he even in the league?)
10-11: Brandon Knight (good but far from great); Terrence Jones was thought to be a one-and-done but came back instead, turned into a guy who's in the D-League as a rookie
11-12: Davis (appears he's going to be very good, but hurt and really just too soon to tell), Kidd-Gilchrist (appears solid but not all-star caliber), Teague (bench player as a rookie)

[Edouble]

Patterson was not even close to a one-and-done. He played three years in Lexington.


You're missing the point. The OP was joking that Cal will send a player on his way to make room for the next crop, regardless of how the player feels about it.

[tommy]

You're missing the point. The OP was joking that Cal will send a player on his way to make room for the next crop, regardless of how the player feels about it.

I got that. If I misread it, my bad, but it seemed to me that MarkD was answering the OP's question, which was essentially "what will happen if the one and done's turn out not to be one and done, and instead they stay a little longer?" And MarkD's response was "see Patrick Patterson for the answer to that question" which didn't make sense because PP was not a one-and-done in the first place.

Cal's teams are not all one-and-dones. Even though he obviously gets the most one and dones, his teams still usually have a number of important players that are not in that category, including last year's championship team.

[MarkD83]

What I meant is that Cal needed space on his roster so he essentially told PP that he did not have a scholarship.
I believe NCAA rules still state that the scholarships are for 1 year at a time and renewable at the discretion of the head coach.
There was another player (I forget his name) who was a one and done. He walked into Cal's office after the season and Cal told him he was good enough to go to the NBA so he was not going to get a scholarship for the next year.

[Dev11]

Patterson was not even close to a one-and-done. He played three years in Lexington.

To me the more interesting "what if" is "what if these high school kids start to realize that very few of Coach Cal's one-and-dones turn into stars in the NBA?"

08-09: no one-and-dones
09-10: Wall (disappointing so far); Cousins (knucklehead); Bledsoe (very good backup, but a backup nonetheless) and Orton (is he even in the league?)
10-11: Brandon Knight (good but far from great); Terrence Jones was thought to be a one-and-done but came back instead, turned into a guy who's in the D-League as a rookie
11-12: Davis (appears he's going to be very good, but hurt and really just too soon to tell), Kidd-Gilchrist (appears solid but not all-star caliber), Teague (bench player as a rookie)

That's not such a terrible track record. Cousins may be a knucklehead in your mind, but in the mind of many teenage fans and GMs he is a big-time talent who just needs to mature a little.

[SupaDave]

To me the more interesting "what if" is "what if these high school kids start to realize that very few of Coach Cal's one-and-dones turn into stars in the NBA?"


That's not such a terrible track record. Cousins may be a knucklehead in your mind, but in the mind of many teenage fans and GMs he is a big-time talent who just needs to mature a little.

If the goal is the NBA then very few of these kids look at what actually happens after they get to the NBA. Many don't mind sitting on the bench for a few milly and there are only a few rookies that come in blazing - even Blake Griffin has had a ton of issues and injuries. They wont be blaming Cal for those guy's failures either b/c Cal let them do what they wanted to do and he provided them with the opportunity. Cal lets 'em loose. Roy holds them back. Either way, all the kids see is the end result.

There are two types of NBA players - those that play for the competition and those that play for the money. That will eventually be the tell of the tape for Cal.

[Trooper]

Patterson was not even close to a one-and-done. He played three years in Lexington.

To me the more interesting "what if" is "what if these high school kids start to realize that very few of Coach Cal's one-and-dones turn into stars in the NBA?"

08-09: no one-and-dones
09-10: Wall (disappointing so far); Cousins (knucklehead); Bledsoe (very good backup, but a backup nonetheless) and Orton (is he even in the league?)
10-11: Brandon Knight (good but far from great); Terrence Jones was thought to be a one-and-done but came back instead, turned into a guy who's in the D-League as a rookie
11-12: Davis (appears he's going to be very good, but hurt and really just too soon to tell), Kidd-Gilchrist (appears solid but not all-star caliber), Teague (bench player as a rookie)

First off, it's a REALLY high bar to expect anyone to wind up with multiple NBA "stars" ... there are maybe 15-20 of those guys in the world at any given time. Coach K hasn't had a true NBA star since Grant Hill. Boozer and Brand both made a couple of all-star teams, but they were never top 15 guys in the league. Though I do think Kyrie is on his way to being the 2nd true star in the past 20 years if he can stay healthy.

You also have to make fair comparisons. Unless you're claiming that these guys would have been different if they'd been one and done at a different school, you really need to look at it as if they played say 3 years in college and judge them on what would've been their rookie seasons. For Wall/Beldsoe/Cousins, this would be their rookie seasons after 3 years of college. Here's what these guys have done this year (Wall last year due to injury):

Cousins: 17pts, 10rebs, 2.5assists, 1.5steals, PER of 21. He may be a knucklehead, but he's widely considered a top 50 guy at the age of 22 who is likely to be an all-star throughout his mid to late 20s. I would not be shocked if he got a long look for the 2016 Olympic team.

Bledsoe: 9pts, 2.5rebs, 2.5assist, 1.5steals in only 18 minutes a game. PER of 19.8 and one of the leagues best defensive point guards at age 23. He would start for 20+ NBA teams. He just happens to play for the same team that employs Chris Paul. Could easily be a future all star.

Wall: 16.3pts, 8assts, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5stls in what would have been his junior year of college at age 21. PER of 17.8. If this kid has been a disappointment, it's only because they expectations were that he was going to be an NBA Hall of Famer. He's well on his way to an all-star career if he can stay healthy.

These other guys shouldn't even been judged yet, but Knight is projecting to be a very solid starting PG as of now.

Kidd-Gilchrist has been much better than you realize. He has a PER of 16.8 playing 27.5 minutes a game as 20 year old and playing high level NBA defense against 3 different positions. He is probably the Bobcats best player. David Thorpe just ranked him as 2nd in the rookie of the year race behind Lillard.

Then there's Davis -- he's got a PER of 19.7 and his averaging 14pts, 8rebs, and 2blks in 30 minutes a game while battling injuries. If he was healthy and playing 35-40 minutes, he'd be something like 17/10/3 as a rookie with one year of college. There is almost no one who thinks he won't be a top 5 NBA player in 3-5 years barring injury. At the same age, Dwight Howard put up 16.5pts, 12.5rebs, and 1.5 blocks in 37 minutes a game and had a PER of 19.4. Davis is less physically mature than Howard was, and Howard had a year of the NBA grind and lifestyle adjustment under his belt. Davis is a mortal lock to be on the 2016 Olympic team, and he may very well be our starting center.

And I know you left him out, because he was a Memphis guy, but Cal is also given credit for Derrick Rose who was his one and done at Memphis. He was only the youngest league MVP in NBA history and a consistent Top 6-8 NBA player when healthy.

Now listen, I don't give Cal much credit for these guys personally. They were all so talented that they'd have excelled like this regardless of where they went to school for one year. But to suggest his track record of NBA development is weak is just insane. It's drastically better than any other coach in College over the last five-six years, even relative to expectations. Only Wall has been a slight disappointment, but I don't think kids are going to look at Wall being the #1 pick and say "man, that kid should have gone to Duke instead of playing for Cal!"

Orton was the one true bust, but honestly, the Cal hype machine got him a first round pick and a few million dollars. If he'd played 3 years of college, he'd have never been drafted. He couldn't play. Averaged 3pts per game at Kentucky! That's a huge win in my book. Way too early to tell on Terrence Jones or Marquis Teague. As a Bulls fan, I have actually liked what I have seen out of Teague in his limited minutes. He needs to get stronger and develop and adequate jumper, but he looks like a keeper to me so far.

Think back to K's big run of first round draft picks... Brand/Battier/Maggette/Avery/Langdon/JWill/Boozer/Dunleavy in a 4 year span 7 lottery picks and one high 2nd rounder. 3 of the guys picked in the top 3 of the draft. 2 guys never made it in the NBA. One guy got hurt and only played one season, and of the 5 guys who did make it, they have gone to a combined 4 all star games (2 each for Brand and Boozer) and won't go to any more as they are all on the downside of their careers. That's nothing against K...taking away the unfortunate JWill injury, this would've have been a crazy good run. It just goes to show how difficult it is to churn out NBA stars even if you're getting the top talent out of high school most years.

[BigWayne]

So back to the original question related to scholarship availability...looking at the current breakdown, if Noel, Goodwin, and Poythress leave for the NBA...and Cal picks up Wiggins and Randle, you have a team with 8 freshmen. Granted he would have the #1 rated player at 4 spots and the #3 center. If Cal wins the tournament with that group and those 5 at least bolt for the NBA, I would expect there to be rule changes.

[Nugget]

NBA Draft.net's most recent mock has Noel #4, Cauley-Stein #8, Goodwin #15 and Poythress #16 (behind both Mason and CJ McCollum, which honestly makes little sense to me, I think in reality Poythress would go before both of them), so I imagine all four of Kentucky's freshmen will be one and done.

And, as others note, even if one or two of them stay, Cal has plenty of room on the roster.

Interestingly, their mock draft has McAdoo falling all the way to #20 -- if that holds, I wonder if he might actually decide to come back. Hopefully, his play will be just middling enough that Carolina will have a less than successful year, but McAdoo will remain a lottery pick and leave anyway.

They have Alex Len of Maryland at #7, and I have seen others also projecting him as a lottery pick. That really surprises me, unless he has improved a great deal from last year. I've not seen Len this season -- for others who have, is this rating warranted?

[timmy c]

They have Alex Len of Maryland at #7, and I have seen others also projecting him as a lottery pick. That really surprises me, unless he has improved a great deal from last year. I've not seen Len this season -- for others who have, is this rating warranted?

NBA teams often draft on potential, not demonstrated skill, and Len’s got plenty of potential. He really stood out to in the Kentucky game where he put up 23 points and grabbed 12 rebounds against Noel/Cauley. Scouts probably like his legit 7-1 (can't teach height) and the fact the he led the ACC in blocks per 40 minutes last year – beating out Hensen, Zeller and the Plumlee duo.

Maryland is a very quiet 13-1, against mostly inferior competition, and put a 94-71 beat down on Virginia Tech last Saturday.

[Kdogg]

What I meant is that Cal needed space on his roster so he essentially told PP that he did not have a scholarship.
I believe NCAA rules still state that the scholarships are for 1 year at a time and renewable at the discretion of the head coach.
There was another player (I forget his name) who was a one and done. He walked into Cal's office after the season and Cal told him he was good enough to go to the NBA so he was not going to get a scholarship for the next year.

I hate Cal as much as the next old school college basketball fan but he didn't push Patrick Patterson out the door. Patterson was an actual student who was graduating in three years. Cal jumped the gun with the anouncement though, as Patterson and his family wanted to do it on their own time frame. He did say earlier in the season he might look at returning for his senior year to get his masters but there was never a question about him returning by tourny time.

[Des Esseintes]

First off, it's a REALLY high bar to expect anyone to wind up with multiple NBA "stars" ... there are maybe 15-20 of those guys in the world at any given time. Coach K hasn't had a true NBA star since Grant Hill. Boozer and Brand both made a couple of all-star teams, but they were never top 15 guys in the league. Though I do think Kyrie is on his way to being the 2nd true star in the past 20 years if he can stay healthy.


Great post. The one point on which I disagree with you is your first. I don't see how Brand and Boozer fail to qualify as stars. They were both max-contract guys at their peak and centerpiece players on top-four seeded playoff teams. The year Brand took the Clippers to the second round and lost to the Suns in 6, for example--there's just no way he wasn't a top-15 guy that season. Dude was balling that year. 25ppg, 10 rpg, 26.5 PER--STAR. An injury the following season robbed him and that squad of the steam that had been built up, of course, and the injuries continued once he hit Philadelphia. Regardless, anyone who averages 20 and 10 in the league over the course of several seasons pretty much has to be a star.

Boozer I can understand where you're coming from, but we are still talking about a guy who made multiple All-Star teams at the power forward position in the Western Conference. Not remotely easy. That kind of has to be a "star."

As I said, though, the rest of your post is spot-on.

[jv001]

Great post. The one point on which I disagree with you is your first. I don't see how Brand and Boozer fail to qualify as stars. They were both max-contract guys at their peak and centerpiece players on top-four seeded playoff teams. The year Brand took the Clippers to the second round and lost to the Suns in 6, for example--there's just no way he wasn't a top-15 guy that season. Dude was balling that year. 25ppg, 10 rpg, 26.5 PER--STAR. An injury the following season robbed him and that squad of the steam that had been built up, of course, and the injuries continued once he hit Philadelphia. Regardless, anyone who averages 20 and 10 in the league over the course of several seasons pretty much has to be a star.

Boozer I can understand where you're coming from, but we are still talking about a guy who made multiple All-Star teams at the power forward position in the Western Conference. Not remotely easy. That kind of has to be a "star."

As I said, though, the rest of your post is spot-on.

I would have to say that Luol Deng is a star player that doesn't get the press that other guys do. I don't watch many NBA games, but I do try to follow our Duke guys. I like Dengs game. GoDuke!

[Kdogg]

First off, it's a REALLY high bar to expect anyone to wind up with multiple NBA "stars" ... there are maybe 15-20 of those guys in the world at any given time. Coach K hasn't had a true NBA star since Grant Hill. Boozer and Brand both made a couple of all-star teams, but they were never top 15 guys in the league. Though I do think Kyrie is on his way to being the 2nd true star in the past 20 years if he can stay healthy.


Elton was All NBA second team in 2006.
Carlos was All NBA third team in 2008.

That puts both guys in elite territory.

[COYS]

Elton was All NBA second team in 2006.
Carlos was All NBA third team in 2008.

That puts both guys in elite territory.

I would argue that Brand was criminally underrated his entire career with the clips. If he had played for a different franchise, he would've had far more All NBA team selections and more All Star selections, too. In his prime, he was at least Boozer's equal on offense and far superior on defense. He absolutely fits the bill as NBA star. Unfortunately for him, his team was never quite talented enough to back him up.

To bolster this idea, 2006 was the year he made second team All NBA. It also happened to be the year the Clips made it to the playoffs. I don't think that's a coincidence, although I will admit it was also Brand's most impressive year, statistically. He was even 6th in the NBA in PER that year (as he was in 2004, as well, but with a lower overall rating).

[Trooper]

Great post. The one point on which I disagree with you is your first. I don't see how Brand and Boozer fail to qualify as stars. They were both max-contract guys at their peak and centerpiece players on top-four seeded playoff teams. The year Brand took the Clippers to the second round and lost to the Suns in 6, for example--there's just no way he wasn't a top-15 guy that season. Dude was balling that year. 25ppg, 10 rpg, 26.5 PER--STAR. An injury the following season robbed him and that squad of the steam that had been built up, of course, and the injuries continued once he hit Philadelphia. Regardless, anyone who averages 20 and 10 in the league over the course of several seasons pretty much has to be a star.

Boozer I can understand where you're coming from, but we are still talking about a guy who made multiple All-Star teams at the power forward position in the Western Conference. Not remotely easy. That kind of has to be a "star."

As I said, though, the rest of your post is spot-on.

You make a fair point on Brand. He was, in fact, 2nd team all-NBA that season, so you'd call him a top 10 guy. I was more thinking of stars as perennial all-stars where the only way they weren't making an all-star roster was due to injury. There are generally ~15 of these guys around at any one time where they have guaranteed all-star slots. The last 10 or so all-star slots rotate from year to year based on who was peaking in a given season...Brand/Boozer fell into those categories for the most part. Right now, I'd look at Lebron/Durant/Kobe/Howard/Paul/Wade/Rose/Westbrook/Love/Bosh/Rondo/Deron Williams/Carmelo/Blake Griffin as fitting in this category with Duncan/Garnett/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen/Pau Gasol as guys who were for many years, but are now too old to do it regularly (save for Duncan who doesn't seem to age). Those 14 guys I listed are all likely to make the next 5-7 all-star games except for Kobe who will retire. Guys like Kyrie, James Harden, and Anthony Davis are poised to join the group. You would have never put Boozer into that group. I will grant you that without the injury Elton had a great shot at joining this group. Unfortunately, it did not happen.

Someone else mentioned Deng was a star. As a Duke grad and a life long Bulls fan, I can tell you that there aren't very many people who are bigger Luol fans than I am. That said, he's just not an NBA star. He's a top 35-50 player who is an A+++++ human being that plays for a team that wins a ton of games because it has 3 top 50ish guys (Deng/Noah/Boozer) and one top 8 guy (Rose) and one of the 4-5 best coaches in the league. All of that lead to Deng being the last man on the Eastern Conference All-Star team last year, but it wouldn't surprise me if he never made another team. Generally speaking, most NBA people view Noah as the better player. If the Bulls get a spot on the all-star team this season, it will certainly go to Noah, not Deng. Deng is a top 10-15 defensive player who is average on offense (his PER is right around the league average every season) but still has decent pts/reb numbers, because he plays the most minutes in the league.

[theAlaskanBear]

You make a fair point on Brand. He was, in fact, 2nd team all-NBA that season, so you'd call him a top 10 guy. I was more thinking of stars as perennial all-stars where the only way they weren't making an all-star roster was due to injury. There are generally ~15 of these guys around at any one time where they have guaranteed all-star slots. The last 10 or so all-star slots rotate from year to year based on who was peaking in a given season...Brand/Boozer fell into those categories for the most part. Right now, I'd look at Lebron/Durant/Kobe/Howard/Paul/Wade/Rose/Westbrook/Love/Bosh/Rondo/Deron Williams/Carmelo/Blake Griffin as fitting in this category with Duncan/Garnett/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen/Pau Gasol as guys who were for many years, but are now too old to do it regularly (save for Duncan who doesn't seem to age). Those 14 guys I listed are all likely to make the next 5-7 all-star games except for Kobe who will retire. Guys like Kyrie, James Harden, and Anthony Davis are poised to join the group. You would have never put Boozer into that group. I will grant you that without the injury Elton had a great shot at joining this group. Unfortunately, it did not happen.

Someone else mentioned Deng was a star. As a Duke grad and a life long Bulls fan, I can tell you that there aren't very many people who are bigger Luol fans than I am. That said, he's just not an NBA star. He's a top 35-50 player who is an A+++++ human being that plays for a team that wins a ton of games because it has 3 top 50ish guys (Deng/Noah/Boozer) and one top 8 guy (Rose) and one of the 4-5 best coaches in the league. All of that lead to Deng being the last man on the Eastern Conference All-Star team last year, but it wouldn't surprise me if he never made another team. Generally speaking, most NBA people view Noah as the better player. If the Bulls get a spot on the all-star team this season, it will certainly go to Noah, not Deng. Deng is a top 10-15 defensive player who is average on offense (his PER is right around the league average every season) but still has decent pts/reb numbers, because he plays the most minutes in the league.

SO what it gets down to is ultimately how we define "star"...superstar, star, elite, etc etc. What is not subjective, however, is that if Boozer finishes this season at his current pace and has two more seasons like the past two, he could crack top 50 in rebounding in NBA history. His rate statistics have him at 44th in RPG in NBA history, and of those ahead of him -- 31 are or will be (I included guys like Shaq, Duncan, Garnett) in the HOF. I am not saying Boozer is a HOFer, but he has been a criminally under-appreciated player due primarily to the perception around him and not the fact.

[tommy]

First off, it's a REALLY high bar to expect anyone to wind up with multiple NBA "stars" ... there are maybe 15-20 of those guys in the world at any given time. Coach K hasn't had a true NBA star since Grant Hill. Boozer and Brand both made a couple of all-star teams, but they were never top 15 guys in the league. Though I do think Kyrie is on his way to being the 2nd true star in the past 20 years if he can stay healthy.

You also have to make fair comparisons. Unless you're claiming that these guys would have been different if they'd been one and done at a different school, you really need to look at it as if they played say 3 years in college and judge them on what would've been their rookie seasons.

OK wait. Stop right there. What do you mean here? Make fair comparisons between what? Why do we need to imagine what these UK guys would be like if they had played 3 years in college before going pro? The whole allure, supposedly, of Cal and UK is that he will prepare them for the NBA and encourage them to go to the NBA after one year. These kids apparently believe that Cal can do that and that in one year they will be lottery picks and big NBA stars. I'm saying that of Cal's UK one-and-dones, I don't see any clear stars, at least not yet. I see some good players, I see some that are too soon to tell if they're going to be stars, or All-Stars, but I don't see any who I would already put in that category.


Cousins: 17pts, 10rebs, 2.5assists, 1.5steals, PER of 21. He may be a knucklehead, but he's widely considered a top 50 guy at the age of 22 who is likely to be an all-star throughout his mid to late 20s. I would not be shocked if he got a long look for the 2016 Olympic team.

I disagree. One of the big changes the Coach K brought to our Olympic program was knucklehead elimination. He wanted high character guys in addition to their basketball skills, so that he could work with them, they'd listen, they'd play as a team instead of for themselves, etc. Cousins is very immature. He has a lot to prove above the neck before he'd be chosen for the team.



Bledsoe: 9pts, 2.5rebs, 2.5assist, 1.5steals in only 18 minutes a game. PER of 19.8 and one of the leagues best defensive point guards at age 23. He would start for 20+ NBA teams. He just happens to play for the same team that employs Chris Paul. Could easily be a future all star.

So far, he's shown he's a good player in limited minutes. He would not be starting for 20+ NBA teams. Not even close. And who knows whether what he's been able to do in his limited minutes would stand up were he to play starters minutes, against higher quality opposition?



Wall: 16.3pts, 8assts, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5stls in what would have been his junior year of college at age 21. PER of 17.8. If this kid has been a disappointment, it's only because they expectations were that he was going to be an NBA Hall of Famer. He's well on his way to an all-star career if he can stay healthy.

Maybe. Or maybe not.



These other guys shouldn't even been judged yet, but Knight is projecting to be a very solid starting PG as of now.

Agree.



Kidd-Gilchrist has been much better than you realize. He has a PER of 16.8 playing 27.5 minutes a game as 20 year old and playing high level NBA defense against 3 different positions. He is probably the Bobcats best player. David Thorpe just ranked him as 2nd in the rookie of the year race behind Lillard.

That's why I said he's been solid. Not a star, not a "wow" player. But solid. But Coach Cal isn't selling "solid." He's selling "wow."



Then there's Davis -- he's got a PER of 19.7 and his averaging 14pts, 8rebs, and 2blks in 30 minutes a game while battling injuries. If he was healthy and playing 35-40 minutes, he'd be something like 17/10/3 as a rookie with one year of college. There is almost no one who thinks he won't be a top 5 NBA player in 3-5 years barring injury. At the same age, Dwight Howard put up 16.5pts, 12.5rebs, and 1.5 blocks in 37 minutes a game and had a PER of 19.4. Davis is less physically mature than Howard was, and Howard had a year of the NBA grind and lifestyle adjustment under his belt. Davis is a mortal lock to be on the 2016 Olympic team, and he may very well be our starting center.

Not disagreeing on Davis. I think at this point he projects as the best of all these guys being discussed.



Now listen, I don't give Cal much credit for these guys personally. They were all so talented that they'd have excelled like this regardless of where they went to school for one year. But to suggest his track record of NBA development is weak is just insane. It's drastically better than any other coach in College over the last five-six years, even relative to expectations. Only Wall has been a slight disappointment, but I don't think kids are going to look at Wall being the #1 pick and say "man, that kid should have gone to Duke instead of playing for Cal!"

But as has been discussed on many prior threads, what "development" is Cal really doing for these guys? Did John Wall become a better point guard and/or a better leader because he spent a year at Kentucky under Cal? Or was he going to be pretty much this exact player, drafted in the exact same spot, had he been able to go straight to the league out of high school? What skills did DeMarcus Cousins develop at Kentucky? What does he do now that he didn't do the first day he stepped on Kentucky's campus?

The whole thing is, as you say, a big hype machine. Cal's image is of the guy who will "prepare" these kids for the NBA in just one short year, but that's not what he's doing. What he's really selling is his enthusiastic support for these guys going pro after one year. The perception out there is that coaches like K don't support kids going to the league after one year very often, and Cal does. What it boils down to is simply 18 year old kids wanting to be told what they already know they want to hear. They want to be told "you're ready. Go!" whether they really are or not. Some of them are in fact ready. Many were ready out of high school. But the point is that ready or not, Cal will tell them they are. That is what they want to hear.

[Billy Dat]

The whole thing is, as you say, a big hype machine. Cal's image is of the guy who will "prepare" these kids for the NBA in just one short year, but that's not what he's doing. What he's really selling is his enthusiastic support for these guys going pro after one year. The perception out there is that coaches like K don't support kids going to the league after one year very often, and Cal does. What it boils down to is simply 18 year old kids wanting to be told what they already know they want to hear. They want to be told "you're ready. Go!" whether they really are or not. Some of them are in fact ready. Many were ready out of high school. But the point is that ready or not, Cal will tell them they are. That is what they want to hear.

This was a nice back and forth on these players, well done. I agree with points both of you made about the potential of each.

Tommy's point here is key, it's the platform Cal has created, not the player development per se. "Support" translates to not standing in their way. I think "ready" means first round guaranteed money and nothing more. NBA scouts and the recruits also probably value the extended freshman year playing time, although sometimes too much PT actually lowers a players draft status. For pure draft position, Josh McRoberts should have left Duke after his freshman year. Ditto James Michael McAdoo. Who knows where Marvin Williams would have wound up had he come back for his sophomore year - maybe not second overall ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

[Trooper]

SO what it gets down to is ultimately how we define "star"...superstar, star, elite, etc etc. What is not subjective, however, is that if Boozer finishes this season at his current pace and has two more seasons like the past two, he could crack top 50 in rebounding in NBA history. His rate statistics have him at 44th in RPG in NBA history, and of those ahead of him -- 31 are or will be (I included guys like Shaq, Duncan, Garnett) in the HOF. I am not saying Boozer is a HOFer, but he has been a criminally under-appreciated player due primarily to the perception around him and not the fact.

Boozer's offense and rebounding numbers have been fantastic throughout his career. He gets knocked for two main reasons. The first, and most legitimate, is that he's a sieve on defense at the NBA level. He plays decent iso post defense, but he is slow and disinterested in rotating and playing help defense, plus he doesn't have the length and leaping ability to be a weak side rim protector. I didn't watch enough of his games in Utah to know if those things were 100% accurate in his prime, but they are definitely true for his Chicago tenure. The 2nd knock from a hall of fame point of view is that he can't be the primary weapon on a very good team. He isn't a true post up guy and doesn't attract double teams. He has always scored most of his points on pick and roll and pick and pop plays that have been engineered with Lebron/D-Will/D-Rose. Everyone agrees that he's awesome at that role, but he couldn't carry the team in the way HOF power forwards like Garnett/Malone/Barkley/Duncan could. By any measure, Boozer has had an outstanding NBA career that has well exceeded expectations for a high 2nd round pick. For what it's worth, I've broken exactly one remote control in my life, and it was when the Bulls picked Lonny Baxter in the draft with Boozer still on the board.

[moonpie23]

imagine if he had stayed in cleveland with lebron....would anything have been different?

[FerryFor50]

imagine if he had stayed in cleveland with lebron....would anything have been different?

Doubtful. They didn't have the shooters needed to spread the floor, unless you think Daniel Gibson was the answer.

Mo Williams was a decent player, but the Heat succeeded due to having 3 go to guys and then the spot up shooters to free up space for LeBron to work inside.

Now, if Big Z had been in his prime and healthy, and Craig Ehlo was around... :p

[Trooper]

OK wait. Stop right there. What do you mean here? Make fair comparisons between what? Why do we need to imagine what these UK guys would be like if they had played 3 years in college before going pro? The whole allure, supposedly, of Cal and UK is that he will prepare them for the NBA and encourage them to go to the NBA after one year. These kids apparently believe that Cal can do that and that in one year they will be lottery picks and big NBA stars. I'm saying that of Cal's UK one-and-dones, I don't see any clear stars, at least not yet. I see some good players, I see some that are too soon to tell if they're going to be stars, or All-Stars, but I don't see any who I would already put in that category.



I disagree. One of the big changes the Coach K brought to our Olympic program was knucklehead elimination. He wanted high character guys in addition to their basketball skills, so that he could work with them, they'd listen, they'd play as a team instead of for themselves, etc. Cousins is very immature. He has a lot to prove above the neck before he'd be chosen for the team.




So far, he's shown he's a good player in limited minutes. He would not be starting for 20+ NBA teams. Not even close. And who knows whether what he's been able to do in his limited minutes would stand up were he to play starters minutes, against higher quality opposition?




Maybe. Or maybe not.




Agree.




That's why I said he's been solid. Not a star, not a "wow" player. But solid. But Coach Cal isn't selling "solid." He's selling "wow."




Not disagreeing on Davis. I think at this point he projects as the best of all these guys being discussed.




But as has been discussed on many prior threads, what "development" is Cal really doing for these guys? Did John Wall become a better point guard and/or a better leader because he spent a year at Kentucky under Cal? Or was he going to be pretty much this exact player, drafted in the exact same spot, had he been able to go straight to the league out of high school? What skills did DeMarcus Cousins develop at Kentucky? What does he do now that he didn't do the first day he stepped on Kentucky's campus?

The whole thing is, as you say, a big hype machine. Cal's image is of the guy who will "prepare" these kids for the NBA in just one short year, but that's not what he's doing. What he's really selling is his enthusiastic support for these guys going pro after one year. The perception out there is that coaches like K don't support kids going to the league after one year very often, and Cal does. What it boils down to is simply 18 year old kids wanting to be told what they already know they want to hear. They want to be told "you're ready. Go!" whether they really are or not. Some of them are in fact ready. Many were ready out of high school. But the point is that ready or not, Cal will tell them they are. That is what they want to hear.

I'm not going to get into a debate about the trajectory these Kentucky kids are on with you. We obviously disagree, particularly on Bledsoe, who almost everyone close to the NBA feels is a star in the making.

I don't think very many people think Cal does a better job of preparing one and done guys for the NBA when compared to the likes of K, Izzo, Self, and another dozen excellent coaches. That's not the allure of Kentucky. It's that he's the only guy who is willing to take 3-4 of those guys at once and encourage them to not care about school and go after one year. They get to play with each other in front of a rabid fan base, get zero crap from alumni/fans when they leave early, and don't have to worry at all about school. That's what most of these kids want, and Cal and UK are the only place that currently offer it. Maybe some of the recruits believe Cal could do a better job prepping them for the NBA, but I think it's more that he'll do just as good a job as anyone and they get all the other above mentioned stuff. It's a great sales pitch, and one that's likely to work until he leaves or gets caught cheating.

You seemed to be implying that, in retrospect, guys like Wall/Bledsoe/Cousins/Davis/Kidd-Gilchrist/Orton/Jones/Teague/Knight/etc didn't get everything they were hoping for, because they are not all already NBA stars. Maybe once every 5-10 years does a guy become an NBA star in his first two years after being one and done. Durant did it. Melo did too. Lebron. That's not the bar Cal has to hit to make all these guys happy.

Those UK guys were all first round draft picks (even Orton miraculously), and more than half of them were top 5 picks. That's what Cal delivered. If they'd all been busts as draft picks, maybe kids down the road would either say a) one and done doesn't work, or b) Cal's coaching of one and done's isn't very helpful, but only Orton is considered a bust and most of these guys are performing at or above expectations relative to their current age. If the past few drafts were done over with the knowledge of how things have played out, I can tell you for sure that Wall would still go #1, Cousins would have gone 2-4 instead of 5, and Bledsoe would have been a Top 7-8 pick in the 2010 draft vs. in the 20s. Brandon Knight would be picked in the same general vicinity (strange draft with 4-5 guys below him outperforming and 3-4 above him being semi-busts). 2012 draft is too new to play that game. All of these guys save for Orton and possibly Jones/Teague are going to make $30+MM in their careers and most will make much more. Cal has delivered on what he has promised and that's how the kids who have played for him speak about it, and how high school kids perceive it.

Random note: Daniel Orton was signed by the Oklahoma City Thunder who have one of the 2-3 best GMs at finding under the radar talents off the scrap heap. The immediately sent him to the d-league for experience after they signed him (league min salary), and he has been tearing it up down there thus far. It's entirely possible that 3 years from now that Daniel Orton is a rotation big in the NBA. And in the meantime, he got a few million dollars on his rookie contract, and is now collecting a few hundred thousand a year to develop in the d-league.

[Billy Dat]

imagine if he had stayed in cleveland with lebron....would anything have been different?

He may not have signed $140MM worth of contracts!!!!!! One thing about Booz, the dude knew how to get himself paid. There was the controversy over him having a verbal agreement with the Cav's owner for $39MM over 6 years. Based on this verbal, the Cavs let Boozer out of his restricted free agent status, and he turned around and signed with Utah for $70MM over the same span! He got brutalized in the press for breaking a gentleman's agreement but money talks.

[Trooper]

He may not have signed $140MM worth of contracts!!!!!! One thing about Booz, the dude knew how to get himself paid. There was the controversy over him having a verbal agreement with the Cav's owner for $39MM over 6 years. Based on this verbal, the Cavs let Boozer out of his restricted free agent status, and he turned around and signed with Utah for $70MM over the same span! He got brutalized in the press for breaking a gentleman's agreement but money talks.

For those interested, here's a pretty interesting take on Boozer's recent career and how he has gotten very little positive press throughout his career:

http://www.blogabull.com/2013/1/9/3855628/cutting-carlos-boozer-a-break

Sorry, don't know how to create an actual link.

[Des Esseintes]

You make a fair point on Brand. He was, in fact, 2nd team all-NBA that season, so you'd call him a top 10 guy. I was more thinking of stars as perennial all-stars where the only way they weren't making an all-star roster was due to injury. There are generally ~15 of these guys around at any one time where they have guaranteed all-star slots. The last 10 or so all-star slots rotate from year to year based on who was peaking in a given season...Brand/Boozer fell into those categories for the most part. Right now, I'd look at Lebron/Durant/Kobe/Howard/Paul/Wade/Rose/Westbrook/Love/Bosh/Rondo/Deron Williams/Carmelo/Blake Griffin as fitting in this category with Duncan/Garnett/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen/Pau Gasol as guys who were for many years, but are now too old to do it regularly (save for Duncan who doesn't seem to age). Those 14 guys I listed are all likely to make the next 5-7 all-star games except for Kobe who will retire. Guys like Kyrie, James Harden, and Anthony Davis are poised to join the group. You would have never put Boozer into that group. I will grant you that without the injury Elton had a great shot at joining this group. Unfortunately, it did not happen.

Interesting discussion. Let's look at how Brand compares with some of those guys. The majority you mention here are in their early- to mid-20s, so we don't know how they will age. Most players diminish toward 30, though, as age and injuries pile up, and the fact that Brand is older and has already suffered his diminution shouldn't obscure the fact that same fate will befall some of the younger ones, too. If we compare the first 10 years of Brand's career with what we know of this company, Brand belongs.

Here we go. James, Durant, Kobe, Howard, Paul, and Wade are greater players than Brand.

Love and Griffin to this point have been a little better probably and haven't yet hit their peaks. On the other hand, both are defensive disasters, and Brand was a huge asset on that end, so their statistical superiority is slighter than first appears.

Rose--who knows what he will be after he returns? Regardless, his MVP notwithstanding, Rose has always been somewhat overrated. His peak value is probably a little higher than Brand's, but we may never see that peak value again, just as we never again saw Brand's after his age-26 season. Rose suffered his injury at 23, sadly.

As for Westbrook, I think you can argue that an Elton Brand is every bit as valuable as a Westbrook. They play very different positions, so comparisons are hard to make, but through their age-24 seasons, Brand was at least as valuable as Westbrook has been.

Bosh and Gasol are good examples of optics. In what way are they superior to Brand? They've proven to be more durable, but for the first 8 years of their careers, Brand was arguably statistically superior to both. If they were all 26, and we didn't know what injuries would befall each in the future, Brand would be ahead of both of them.

Rondo is an inferior player to Brand. Through age 26, Brand never had a PER below 20. Through age 26, Rondo has never had a PER above 20. Just because Rondo has played on better teams than Brand did doesn't confer him "star" quality over Brand. He's been on Sportscenter more. It's not the same as worthiness.

To a lesser extent, Brand also compares favorably to Deron Williams. Same caveats as with Rondo regarding positions, and granted that Williams is better than Rondo, Brand was more impactful through his first ten years. People may say that a point guard's contributions go beyond statistics, and that's true. So do those of a rim-protecting big man.

Brand was likewise better than Carmelo to this point in their careers. Anthony is having a career season and may finally be in a system that makes him the top-10 player he's always erroneously been credited with. But before this year, Brand was better, hands down.

You can--and are welcome to!--challenge any of these assessments, but taken as a whole they put Brand squarely amid this company you suggest is above him.