Question Re the "Duke Curse"

[Lar77]

Putting this into a new thread because of the negative association with McCollum. He is a very good player and I hope for his full recovery so he can pursue his dream of playing in the NBA.

That said, until reading today's DBR story, I was always under the impression that the Duke Curse was that if you beat us in the NCAA (since the K era and 64/68 team era), you will not qualify for the tourney the next year, or we will beat you the next year in the tourney,or you will decline as a program. I don't know whether this has held true every year, but I recall DBR doing something a few years ago and there was a very high correlation.

Any help?

[cf-62]

Putting this into a new thread because of the negative association with McCollum. He is a very good player and I hope for his full recovery so he can pursue his dream of playing in the NBA.

That said, until reading today's DBR story, I was always under the impression that the Duke Curse was that if you beat us in the NCAA (since the K era and 64/68 team era), you will not qualify for the tourney the next year, or we will beat you the next year in the tourney,or you will decline as a program. I don't know whether this has held true every year, but I recall DBR doing something a few years ago and there was a very high correlation.

Any help?

As with any good thing over time, the DBR guys take the curse to unimaginable levels - and simply publish all the bad stuff that happens to teams if they've beaten Duke.

The Duke curse WAS - and IS, as seen by McCollum - that if you beat us, bad things will happen to your program / coaches / players - IMMINENTLY. UConn's struggles now have no bearing on beating Duke in 2004, so they shouldn't be included, but there is some real bite to the curse:

Things like:
Defending Champ Louisville missing the 87 tournament with 19(?) wins and a top 20 RPI
Indiana missing the tournament for 3 years
Kansas being put on Probation and having a losing record (Losing by 25 to Duke)
Seton Hall losing everything (coach, players) - the coach is involved in a huge controversy (Sprewell), and one of the players almost dies in a car accident (not enjoying that one)
Vegas - End of Program
Cal - End of Program
Providence - lose Coach, lose all players, don't make it back to tournament for a decade
UConn - players arrested for drug use, coaches arrested for solicitation, don't make the next tournament
Indiana - Program Destroyed
Kansas - Lost Championship game, lost coach
UConn - massive scandal erupts around grades, crimes, ..., on top of everything else, fail to make tournament several years straight
Mizzou - snakebit players with injury bugs - Huggins, too
Nova - Dead program
Arizona - Lose to UConn, blow up 2012 season
Lehigh - McCollum breaks foot - team's season over

[TexHawk]

Things like:
Kansas - Lost Championship game, lost coach
Mizzou - snakebit players with injury bugs - Huggins, too


Well, as far as *IMMINENT* demise, that KU team then beat the overwhelming favorite (Arizona) on the way to the Final Four and championship game. Yes, we lost our coach, which sucked at the time, but we are much, much better off for it.

Also, I don't think Missouri has ever beaten Duke. You must mean WVA.

[-bdbd]

As I mentioned in the Lehigh thread, the "Duke curse," which I'd always taken to be just a DBR thing, is getting mentioned in other, non-Duke ACC literary circles. In this case the ACC Sports Journal:




http://www.accsports.com/daily-links...php?login=true




:p

[cf-62]

Well, as far as *IMMINENT* demise, that KU team then beat the overwhelming favorite (Arizona) on the way to the Final Four and championship game. Yes, we lost our coach, which sucked at the time, but we are much, much better off for it.

Also, I don't think Missouri has ever beaten Duke. You must mean WVA.

I did mean WVA - and beating Duke in many cases led to National Championships and Final 4s. Duke lost to the eventual National Champ in 86, 87, 88, 90, 94, 98, 99, and 04. They lost to the National runner up in 89, 00, 02, and 03.

The 5 seeds that beat Duke throughout the 2000s ALL went on to the Final 4. Of those teams, only LSU WASN'T ridiculously under-seeded. The rest were all Top 10 or higher teams.

The curse doesn't necessarily mean you lose THE NEXT game. It just means something bad is going to happen, and while I agree KU is better off these days, you have to admit that losing the Championship game and then the coach within a week qualifies as "something bad."

[Turtleboy]

The alleged "Duke Curse" is purely and simply a case of confirmation bias, bolstered by a lack of definition of terms.

[hurleyfor3]

I don't blame you; there are certainly parts of Missouri that feel like being in West Virginia.

[Jderf]

The alleged "Duke Curse" is purely and simply a case of confirmation bias, bolstered by a lack of definition of terms.

Seriously. Between bad losses, bad press, prolonged slumps, injuries, player suspensions, team suspensions, missing the tournament, losing early in the tournament, etc etc -- so many different bad things can happen to a team throughout a single season that it is almost impossible to imagine any team in any season that could not be cited as being a victim of the curse. The team would pretty much have to win the national championship to invalidate the so-called curse. I mean, was last year's Lehigh loss due to Duke suffering from the Michigan curse? Was Kyrie's toe due to the Butler curse?

At a certain point, aren't we just revelling in other's misfortune? It's tough for me to see the difference between this and just being a sore loser.

[rasputin]

I don't blame you; there are certainly parts of Missouri that feel like being in West Virginia.

Now, now. I live in Missouri, and I have consecutive teeth.

[OldPhiKap]

As with any good thing over time, the DBR guys take the curse to unimaginable levels -

Dare I say, it is time for a diminishing curse vigil?

[cf-62]

Seriously. Between bad losses, bad press, prolonged slumps, injuries, player suspensions, team suspensions, missing the tournament, losing early in the tournament, etc etc -- so many different bad things can happen to a team throughout a single season that it is almost impossible to imagine any team in any season that could not be cited as being a victim of the curse. The team would pretty much have to win the national championship to invalidate the so-called curse. I mean, was last year's Lehigh loss due to Duke suffering from the Michigan curse? Was Kyrie's toe due to the Butler curse?

At a certain point, aren't we just revelling in other's misfortune? It's tough for me to see the difference between this and just being a sore loser.

I've always thought the curse was funny - and some of us noticed these things back before you could type www in a browser and end up on a web page (heck, before more than 1% of people even had a PC to type on). There's no doubting the fact that the teams that beat Duke in 1984, 85, 86, 87, 88, and 89 all failed to make the tournament the next year. 3 of those teams ended up being national champs.

I don't consider it being poor losers. For a long time, we had to be the most gracious of losers because we kept losing heartbreaking games. Pointing out that bad things befall those teams isn't being a poor loser.

And you can't dispute the fact that 1989 was the LOWEST of lows for Kansas.

Throw in Vegas - and Cal, and you get a pure decade of bad things happening to teams the year after they beat Duke.

There's been so much garbage at UConn, it's hard to point to one thing and say "it's the Duke curse" - but the drug arrests and solicitation arrests occurred the summer after wins over Duke.

[David]

The alleged "Duke Curse" is purely and simply a case of confirmation bias, bolstered by a lack of definition of terms.

The 'Duke Curse' also relates to 'regression to the mean' - simply put: what goes up, must also come down. The team that beats Duke typically has a great year for that program (both on and off the court). I don't have time to look up the data but i would posit the majority of teams that beat Duke exceeded their average tourney performance. Things inevitably regress the following year to their expected mean in terms of on-court performance, injuries, run-ins with the law, etc.

To make a silly analogy, I propose a National Championship curse: the team that wins the national championship is cursed the next season and will not repeat as champion. Since 1974, every champion has been 'cursed' except Duke '92 and Florida '07. I think we can all agree that we would love take on this 'curse' for the 13-14 season.

[Indoor66]

I propose a National Championship curse: the team that wins the national championship is cursed the next season and will not repeat as champion. Since 1974, every champion has been 'cursed' except Duke '92 and Florida '07. I think we can all agree that we would love take on this 'curse' for the 13-14 season.

Actually, I would rather avoid the curse and just repeat the 1992 result. :cool: