pfrduke
01-06-2013, 10:06 PM
Non-conference play is now done until March. The ACC finished with a winning record (barely) against BCS opponents and a .756 non-conference winning percentage overall. It was a solid performance - not exceptional, but not awful. After the past couple of years, not underperforming is itself somewhat of an accomplishment. After the first weekend of conference play, we've got a six-way tie for first. Maryland continues its winning ways - it has the second-longest conference winning streak to Duke - and looked very impressive doing so, wiping the floor with the Hokies. The Terps' first real test since game 1 is still a week away, but to date they've been the conference's biggest surprise. Virginia picked up a very solid win over UNC. The Heels struggle in the half court - the difference between Kendall Marshall and Marcus Paige is a gulf. As for the league's other first-place squads, Duke was workmanlike in its win over Wake - the Devils played only ok and still won by 18 - Miami picked up a solid road win against Tech, NC State looked less than impressive against BC (for the Wolfpack to succeed this season, they have to start playing defense at some point), and FSU took care of Clemson.
Miami has the two biggest games this week, traveling to Carolina on Thursday and hosting the Terps Sunday night. The other one to watch is Duke's first true road game, at NC State, to kick off Saturday action. Here's the full slate.
*Note: These are Pomeroy numbers from before Sunday's UNC-UVA game.
Monday is dark
Tuesday Duke hosts Clemson. The Tigers appear to be taking a slight step back from even last year's mediocre performance. They were .500 in conference last season, but this year they'll be lucky, I think, to get to 8 wins (and that's with two more conference games). The matchup between Kelly and Milton Jennings should be an interesting one to watch - Jennings is just as much a stretch 4 as Ryan is, but is also quicker. He could make life difficult for Duke's defense.
[4]Duke hosts [82]Clemson
Wednesday has 4 contests. Leading off the night is BC-Virginia Tech. The Hokies have collapsed over the past 4 weeks. On December 10, they were 8-1 and ranked 62 by Pomeroy. Since then they're 1-4 with the win coming by a single point in overtime over Bradley and the four losses by 36, 26, 23, and by 5 at home to the 288th ranked team in the country, and they've dropped 85 spots in the rankings. BC, of course, is not very good, but they put up a good fight against the Pack. As usual, expect Erick Green to go off; the question will be whether he gets enough help. Georgia Tech and NC State matches up two teams with very opposite profiles - NCSU scores a ton but struggles to stop people, with every top 100 opponent scoring more than 1.05 points per possession. The Jackets lock teams down, with only 2 teams scoring over a point per possession against them, but they've fallen short of that mark themselves in nearly half their games. Even against the Pack's generous defense, I'm not sure Georgia Tech can score enough to win. FSU travels to Maryland - the Terps are the clear favorite, but one thing that could keep the game closer is that FSU's major offensive weakness (turnovers) is also Maryland's major defensive weakness (they rank 330th in forcing turnovers). Closing out the night is Virginia traveling to Wake Forest. This looks like a mismatch, but UVA hasn't won at Wake Forest since the 99-00 season.
[147]Virginia Tech hosts [151]Boston College
[38]NC State hosts [71]Georgia Tech
[51]Maryland hosts [70]Florida State
[157]Wake Forest hosts [27]Virginia
Thursday has the best weekday game, with Carolina hosting Miami. UNC gets a break in that Reggie Johnson is unavailable to play, but the Canes should still have enough to give the Heels fits. However, they're weak on the glass - particularly without Johnson - and so UNC figures to get several second-chance opportunities.
[36]UNC hosts [22]Miami
Friday is dark.
Saturday opens play with what should be the week's best game. RBC will be very hostile with Duke coming to town. Given the Pack's defensive issues so far, this figures to be a high-scoring affair. Their front court will be a load for Mason and Ryan to deal with. Also at noon, Virginia travels to Clemson to take on the Tigers. Carolina travels to Florida State, a place that has not been warm and welcoming to the Heels, highlighted by last year's 33-point drubbing. 2:00 also features the battle of the Techs in Atlanta. Finally, BC travels to Wake to close out the evening - loser has the inside look at 12th place.
[38]NC State hosts [4]Duke
[82]Clemson hosts [27]Virginia
[70]Florida State hosts [36]UNC
[71]Georgia Tech hosts [147]Virginia Tech
[157]Wake Forest hosts [151]Boston College
Sunday again has a strong matchup for Sunday night hoops. Maryland hits the road for its first real test in conference, traveling to Coral Gables to take on the Canes. Both of these squads are fighting to be at the top of the conference by year end. Maryland has won its only road game to date, but Miami's a lot better than Northwestern.
[22]Miami hosts [51]Maryland
ACC Non-Conference Record: 115-37
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 19-18
America East: 3-0
Atlantic 10: 12-3
Atlantic Sun: 7-2
Big XII: 1-4
Big East: 3-2
Big South: 7-1
Big Ten: 8-6
Big West: 2-0
Colonial: 5-3
CUSA: 7-0
Horizon: 3-0
Ivy: 2-1
MAAC: 2-1
MAC: 3-0
MEAC: 7-0
MVC: 1-1
MWC: 1-1
NEC: 3-1
OVC: 1-0
Pac-12: 1-3
Patriot: 2-0
SEC: 6-3
Southern: 13-2
Southland: 2-0
Summit: 1-0
Sun Belt: 4-1
SWAC: 3-0
West Coast: 3-2
WAC: 1-0
Non D-I: 1-0
Miami has the two biggest games this week, traveling to Carolina on Thursday and hosting the Terps Sunday night. The other one to watch is Duke's first true road game, at NC State, to kick off Saturday action. Here's the full slate.
*Note: These are Pomeroy numbers from before Sunday's UNC-UVA game.
Monday is dark
Tuesday Duke hosts Clemson. The Tigers appear to be taking a slight step back from even last year's mediocre performance. They were .500 in conference last season, but this year they'll be lucky, I think, to get to 8 wins (and that's with two more conference games). The matchup between Kelly and Milton Jennings should be an interesting one to watch - Jennings is just as much a stretch 4 as Ryan is, but is also quicker. He could make life difficult for Duke's defense.
[4]Duke hosts [82]Clemson
Wednesday has 4 contests. Leading off the night is BC-Virginia Tech. The Hokies have collapsed over the past 4 weeks. On December 10, they were 8-1 and ranked 62 by Pomeroy. Since then they're 1-4 with the win coming by a single point in overtime over Bradley and the four losses by 36, 26, 23, and by 5 at home to the 288th ranked team in the country, and they've dropped 85 spots in the rankings. BC, of course, is not very good, but they put up a good fight against the Pack. As usual, expect Erick Green to go off; the question will be whether he gets enough help. Georgia Tech and NC State matches up two teams with very opposite profiles - NCSU scores a ton but struggles to stop people, with every top 100 opponent scoring more than 1.05 points per possession. The Jackets lock teams down, with only 2 teams scoring over a point per possession against them, but they've fallen short of that mark themselves in nearly half their games. Even against the Pack's generous defense, I'm not sure Georgia Tech can score enough to win. FSU travels to Maryland - the Terps are the clear favorite, but one thing that could keep the game closer is that FSU's major offensive weakness (turnovers) is also Maryland's major defensive weakness (they rank 330th in forcing turnovers). Closing out the night is Virginia traveling to Wake Forest. This looks like a mismatch, but UVA hasn't won at Wake Forest since the 99-00 season.
[147]Virginia Tech hosts [151]Boston College
[38]NC State hosts [71]Georgia Tech
[51]Maryland hosts [70]Florida State
[157]Wake Forest hosts [27]Virginia
Thursday has the best weekday game, with Carolina hosting Miami. UNC gets a break in that Reggie Johnson is unavailable to play, but the Canes should still have enough to give the Heels fits. However, they're weak on the glass - particularly without Johnson - and so UNC figures to get several second-chance opportunities.
[36]UNC hosts [22]Miami
Friday is dark.
Saturday opens play with what should be the week's best game. RBC will be very hostile with Duke coming to town. Given the Pack's defensive issues so far, this figures to be a high-scoring affair. Their front court will be a load for Mason and Ryan to deal with. Also at noon, Virginia travels to Clemson to take on the Tigers. Carolina travels to Florida State, a place that has not been warm and welcoming to the Heels, highlighted by last year's 33-point drubbing. 2:00 also features the battle of the Techs in Atlanta. Finally, BC travels to Wake to close out the evening - loser has the inside look at 12th place.
[38]NC State hosts [4]Duke
[82]Clemson hosts [27]Virginia
[70]Florida State hosts [36]UNC
[71]Georgia Tech hosts [147]Virginia Tech
[157]Wake Forest hosts [151]Boston College
Sunday again has a strong matchup for Sunday night hoops. Maryland hits the road for its first real test in conference, traveling to Coral Gables to take on the Canes. Both of these squads are fighting to be at the top of the conference by year end. Maryland has won its only road game to date, but Miami's a lot better than Northwestern.
[22]Miami hosts [51]Maryland
ACC Non-Conference Record: 115-37
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 19-18
America East: 3-0
Atlantic 10: 12-3
Atlantic Sun: 7-2
Big XII: 1-4
Big East: 3-2
Big South: 7-1
Big Ten: 8-6
Big West: 2-0
Colonial: 5-3
CUSA: 7-0
Horizon: 3-0
Ivy: 2-1
MAAC: 2-1
MAC: 3-0
MEAC: 7-0
MVC: 1-1
MWC: 1-1
NEC: 3-1
OVC: 1-0
Pac-12: 1-3
Patriot: 2-0
SEC: 6-3
Southern: 13-2
Southland: 2-0
Summit: 1-0
Sun Belt: 4-1
SWAC: 3-0
West Coast: 3-2
WAC: 1-0
Non D-I: 1-0