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pfrduke
01-06-2013, 10:06 PM
Non-conference play is now done until March. The ACC finished with a winning record (barely) against BCS opponents and a .756 non-conference winning percentage overall. It was a solid performance - not exceptional, but not awful. After the past couple of years, not underperforming is itself somewhat of an accomplishment. After the first weekend of conference play, we've got a six-way tie for first. Maryland continues its winning ways - it has the second-longest conference winning streak to Duke - and looked very impressive doing so, wiping the floor with the Hokies. The Terps' first real test since game 1 is still a week away, but to date they've been the conference's biggest surprise. Virginia picked up a very solid win over UNC. The Heels struggle in the half court - the difference between Kendall Marshall and Marcus Paige is a gulf. As for the league's other first-place squads, Duke was workmanlike in its win over Wake - the Devils played only ok and still won by 18 - Miami picked up a solid road win against Tech, NC State looked less than impressive against BC (for the Wolfpack to succeed this season, they have to start playing defense at some point), and FSU took care of Clemson.

Miami has the two biggest games this week, traveling to Carolina on Thursday and hosting the Terps Sunday night. The other one to watch is Duke's first true road game, at NC State, to kick off Saturday action. Here's the full slate.

*Note: These are Pomeroy numbers from before Sunday's UNC-UVA game.

Monday is dark

Tuesday Duke hosts Clemson. The Tigers appear to be taking a slight step back from even last year's mediocre performance. They were .500 in conference last season, but this year they'll be lucky, I think, to get to 8 wins (and that's with two more conference games). The matchup between Kelly and Milton Jennings should be an interesting one to watch - Jennings is just as much a stretch 4 as Ryan is, but is also quicker. He could make life difficult for Duke's defense.

[4]Duke hosts [82]Clemson

Wednesday has 4 contests. Leading off the night is BC-Virginia Tech. The Hokies have collapsed over the past 4 weeks. On December 10, they were 8-1 and ranked 62 by Pomeroy. Since then they're 1-4 with the win coming by a single point in overtime over Bradley and the four losses by 36, 26, 23, and by 5 at home to the 288th ranked team in the country, and they've dropped 85 spots in the rankings. BC, of course, is not very good, but they put up a good fight against the Pack. As usual, expect Erick Green to go off; the question will be whether he gets enough help. Georgia Tech and NC State matches up two teams with very opposite profiles - NCSU scores a ton but struggles to stop people, with every top 100 opponent scoring more than 1.05 points per possession. The Jackets lock teams down, with only 2 teams scoring over a point per possession against them, but they've fallen short of that mark themselves in nearly half their games. Even against the Pack's generous defense, I'm not sure Georgia Tech can score enough to win. FSU travels to Maryland - the Terps are the clear favorite, but one thing that could keep the game closer is that FSU's major offensive weakness (turnovers) is also Maryland's major defensive weakness (they rank 330th in forcing turnovers). Closing out the night is Virginia traveling to Wake Forest. This looks like a mismatch, but UVA hasn't won at Wake Forest since the 99-00 season.

[147]Virginia Tech hosts [151]Boston College
[38]NC State hosts [71]Georgia Tech
[51]Maryland hosts [70]Florida State
[157]Wake Forest hosts [27]Virginia

Thursday has the best weekday game, with Carolina hosting Miami. UNC gets a break in that Reggie Johnson is unavailable to play, but the Canes should still have enough to give the Heels fits. However, they're weak on the glass - particularly without Johnson - and so UNC figures to get several second-chance opportunities.

[36]UNC hosts [22]Miami

Friday is dark.

Saturday opens play with what should be the week's best game. RBC will be very hostile with Duke coming to town. Given the Pack's defensive issues so far, this figures to be a high-scoring affair. Their front court will be a load for Mason and Ryan to deal with. Also at noon, Virginia travels to Clemson to take on the Tigers. Carolina travels to Florida State, a place that has not been warm and welcoming to the Heels, highlighted by last year's 33-point drubbing. 2:00 also features the battle of the Techs in Atlanta. Finally, BC travels to Wake to close out the evening - loser has the inside look at 12th place.

[38]NC State hosts [4]Duke
[82]Clemson hosts [27]Virginia
[70]Florida State hosts [36]UNC
[71]Georgia Tech hosts [147]Virginia Tech
[157]Wake Forest hosts [151]Boston College

Sunday again has a strong matchup for Sunday night hoops. Maryland hits the road for its first real test in conference, traveling to Coral Gables to take on the Canes. Both of these squads are fighting to be at the top of the conference by year end. Maryland has won its only road game to date, but Miami's a lot better than Northwestern.

[22]Miami hosts [51]Maryland

ACC Non-Conference Record: 115-37
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 19-18
America East: 3-0
Atlantic 10: 12-3
Atlantic Sun: 7-2
Big XII: 1-4
Big East: 3-2
Big South: 7-1
Big Ten: 8-6
Big West: 2-0
Colonial: 5-3
CUSA: 7-0
Horizon: 3-0
Ivy: 2-1
MAAC: 2-1
MAC: 3-0
MEAC: 7-0
MVC: 1-1
MWC: 1-1
NEC: 3-1
OVC: 1-0
Pac-12: 1-3
Patriot: 2-0
SEC: 6-3
Southern: 13-2
Southland: 2-0
Summit: 1-0
Sun Belt: 4-1
SWAC: 3-0
West Coast: 3-2
WAC: 1-0
Non D-I: 1-0

gw67
01-07-2013, 10:18 AM
The games of interest to me this week are as follows:

• Miami @ UNC
• Duke @ NC State
• UNC @ Florida State
• Maryland @ Miami

IMO, the Devils are playing very well as a team and are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. The Pack are talented and may be able to give Duke a good game while playing at home.

It will be interesting to see if the Tarheels are as bad as they looked last night. Similarly, is an experienced Miami team ready to make a move? The Terps are talented but are very young and may take it on the chin while playing on the road.

I note that last night’s game was the ugliest I’ve seen this year. Of course, if I was capable of remembering and listing the 50 ugliest ACC games I’ve watched during the past fifty years, Virginia probably participated in 2/3 of them.

I get ill every time I think of Maryland joining the B1G in two years and I understand the negativity toward them by the rest of the conference (and DBR) but they are a fun team to watch this year. They have two of the top fifteen players in the conference (Len and Wells), one of the best 3-point shooters in the country (Aronhalt), and three freshmen who are going to be terrific players in a couple of years (Allen, Mitchell and Layman). They are young and I expect them to place 4-5 in the conference and make the NCAAT.

gw67

tele
01-07-2013, 10:59 AM
This is a very useful thread, thanks for doing it. I often wish the DBR ACC roundups would include the schedule and times for the other conference games, like they do on the front page for the next duke game. Having that in a weekly summary like you do is very nice. If you were to add the gametimes, maybe dbr would include the info in their ACC roundup posts. Thanks again.

ChillinDuke
01-07-2013, 11:04 AM
...

PFR,

I can't thank you enough for these weekly snapshots. They really get me excited and keep me up-to-date on the pulse of the conference.

Much appreciated.

- Chillin

loran16
01-09-2013, 10:21 PM
VT lost to BC at home (ew).
FSU beat Maryland AT Maryland (So much for Maryland being legit).
Wake is beating UVA at Wake.

State also struggled with GT, though oddly it was State's D that did the work, not the O.

JasonEvans
01-10-2013, 09:55 AM
All that good will that Virginia built up in the win over UNC just got tossed out the window in the loss to Wake. At 11-3 with wins over Wisconsin, Tennessee, and UNC, Virginia looked like it was building a strong NCAA tourney resume. But, they are now 11-4 with losses to 4 teams that are not ranked in the top 100. Gack!

The VT loss to BC doesn't surprise me that much as VT has been awful lately. After their impressive win over Okie St back on December 1, the Hokies have lost 6 of 8... and they have not been playing tough opponents either. They are on their way to the bottom half of the conference, for sure.

FSU may be finally playing the way we all expected. An ACC road win is always a good thing.

-Jason "Carolina-Miami tonight is the biggest game of the mid-week, I think" Evans

loran16
01-10-2013, 12:59 PM
FSU may be finally playing the way we all expected. An ACC road win is always a good thing.

-Jason "Carolina-Miami tonight is the biggest game of the mid-week, I think" Evans

Let's not jump the gun here: fsu is coming off a game where Clemson still put up a point per possession - and we all saw how bad clemson's I was Tuesday- and a loss to auburn just last week

Not exactly playing up to expectations .

More likely this is a referendum on Maryland who hadn't played a top 50 team since uk and whose only other top 100 opponents have been stonybrook and northwestern. Fsu was their second best opponent of the year - seriously. Really md has done nothing to show it is a contender and it resume so far looks just like the Seth Greenberg vatech teams.

Bob Green
01-10-2013, 01:05 PM
-Jason "Carolina-Miami tonight is the biggest game of the mid-week, I think" Evans

I agree with you if Miami wins, which would improve their record to 2-0 and drop Carolina to 0-2. That would be significant. However, if Carolina wins it just adds two more 1-1 teams to the early season middle-of-the-pack quagmire. No big deal.

CDu
01-10-2013, 03:57 PM
Let's not jump the gun here: fsu is coming off a game where Clemson still put up a point per possession - and we all saw how bad clemson's I was Tuesday- and a loss to auburn just last week

Not exactly playing up to expectations .

More likely this is a referendum on Maryland who hadn't played a top 50 team since uk and whose only other top 100 opponents have been stonybrook and northwestern. Fsu was their second best opponent of the year - seriously. Really md has done nothing to show it is a contender and it resume so far looks just like the Seth Greenberg vatech teams.

I agree that this game was probably more a referendum on Maryland than evidence that FSU is turning it around. Maryland's biggest claim to fame this season is losing close against a not-that-good UK team in many of those UK players' first ever college game. Other than that, they've beaten a bunch of not very good teams.

FSU has beaten BYU (#47 in Pomeroy) and Maryland (#55), and that's it for their wins against the top-60 (according to Pomeroy) teams. The rest of their schedule includes home losses to Minnesota and Florida (the latter in embarassing fashion), and AWFUL losses to USA and Mercer at home and at Auburn. That game (along with the UVa loss) suggests to me that, aside from Duke and NC State and (maybe) Miami and UNC, the rest of the ACC is mediocre/bad. Anyone can beat anyone, because all of those teams are lacking one (or more) major components necessary to be consistently good every game.

JasonEvans
01-10-2013, 08:33 PM
I agree with you if Miami wins, which would improve their record to 2-0 and drop Carolina to 0-2. That would be significant. However, if Carolina wins it just adds two more 1-1 teams to the early season middle-of-the-pack quagmire. No big deal.

Miami by 2, 5 minutes left in the game.

-JE

Bob Green
01-10-2013, 08:51 PM
-Jason "Carolina-Miami tonight is the biggest game of the mid-week, I think" Evans

You are correct, sir! Miami 68, Carolina 59. Miami is 2-0 with both wins being road wins.

miramar
01-10-2013, 08:53 PM
27 second half points at home. Nuff said.

Bullock shot 4/16 and McAdoo 5/14. Ouch!

CDu
01-10-2013, 09:16 PM
27 second half points at home. Nuff said.

Bullock shot 4/16 and McAdoo 5/14. Ouch!

Surprising performance from Bullock. He has played well this year. Not surprising from McAdoo. He just isn't very good.

Newton_14
01-10-2013, 11:01 PM
Surprising performance from Bullock. He has played well this year. Not surprising from McAdoo. He just isn't very good.

Agree. McAdoo is a poor man's Ed Davis. Davis looked stellar as a role player in 09 playing alongside Hans and surrounded by great upperclassmen, then struggled with the transition from role player to star player as the man in the post on a young team the next year. Davis was better than McAdoo though. McAdoo looked stellar as a role player last year playing alongside Zeller and Henson. This year he is struggling mightily to be the man. Lots of difference shining when all the defense is focused on you.

I did expect Bullock to have an easier time making that transition though. He is certainly skilled enough. He is not getting a lot of help though.

loran16
01-10-2013, 11:24 PM
Agree. McAdoo is a poor man's Ed Davis. Davis looked stellar as a role player in 09 playing alongside Hans and surrounded by great upperclassmen, then struggled with the transition from role player to star player as the man in the post on a young team the next year. Davis was better than McAdoo though. McAdoo looked stellar as a role player last year playing alongside Zeller and Henson. This year he is struggling mightily to be the man. Lots of difference shining when all the defense is focused on you.

I did expect Bullock to have an easier time making that transition though. He is certainly skilled enough. He is not getting a lot of help though.

The Davis McAdoo comparison is very wrong. Davis was actually GOOD in both of his years - an efficient shooter (over 60% TS% even in 2010 when he performed a major role) and at least an elite defensive rebounder (not offensive).

McAdoo is just plain lousy. Last year he was bad even as a small part - he LOOKS like he's good, but he was a terrible shooter even last year - 43.4% eFG%. This year he's taken up an insane amount of UNC's offense - more than any UNC player in recent memory (I'm not kidding) - and while his shooting has slightly improved, he's gotten far less efficient due to turning the ball over a lot.

McAdoo is taking the ball a lot more than Davis did in 2010, so the impact of McAdoo sucking is felt a lot more. Davis was underrated due to how bad the 2010 team was, but he was actually very good - the problem was that Deon Thompson took a ton of shots (as did Tyler Zeller, who wasn't nearly as good as a sophomore).

OldPhiKap
01-11-2013, 08:48 AM
McAdoo is a very able complimentary player, but not the stud first option that Carolina lacks. Kind of like when Jason Capel and the obligatory big goofy kid (Klubber Lang?) were there a decade or so ago.

tbyers11
01-11-2013, 09:17 AM
McAdoo is a very able complimentary player, but not the stud first option that Carolina lacks. Kind of like when Jason Capel and the obligatory big goofy kid (Klubber Lang?) were there a decade or so ago.

I'm not certain if it is mentioned in Throaty's Pocket Reference, but I am pretty sure that any mention of Kris Lang requires immediate posting of this picture


3109

CDu
01-11-2013, 09:43 AM
McAdoo is a very able complimentary player, but not the stud first option that Carolina lacks. Kind of like when Jason Capel and the obligatory big goofy kid (Klubber Lang?) were there a decade or so ago.

"complementary" not "complimentary". :)

And I'm not even sure I'd say he's a very able complementary player. Last year, in a reserve role, he shot only 43% from the field and had a fairly low rebound rate. For a PF who wasn't asked to do much offensively, that's pretty poor. So if by "complementary player" you mean "player who you ask nothing of offensively and don't require a high rebound rate", then I agree.

McAdoo is a pretty good (not great) athlete who appears to try hard and generally knows where to be on the floor. But he has very little basketball skill. Last year, it was masked because he didn't play much and didn't have to do much when he did play. But this year, in a larger role, his limited skill is glaringly evident.

It's funny, because people are making excuses for him like "well, he's not a back-to-the-basket scorer, he prefers to face up." But he's not good at the face-up game either, because he can't dribble and he can't shoot. Basically, he's a reasonably good cutter. If you forget about him, then he's okay at catching and finishing/getting fouled when a PG finds him on an open cut. But if you keep a body on him, he's useless offensively.

Bob Green
01-11-2013, 05:38 PM
Saturday opens play with what should be the week's best game. RBC will be very hostile with Duke coming to town. Given the Pack's defensive issues so far, this figures to be a high-scoring affair. Their front court will be a load for Mason and Ryan to deal with. Also at noon, Virginia travels to Clemson to take on the Tigers. Carolina travels to Florida State, a place that has not been warm and welcoming to the Heels, highlighted by last year's 33-point drubbing. 2:00 also features the battle of the Techs in Atlanta. Finally, BC travels to Wake to close out the evening - loser has the inside look at 12th place.

[38]NC State hosts [4]Duke
[82]Clemson hosts [27]Virginia
[70]Florida State hosts [36]UNC
[71]Georgia Tech hosts [147]Virginia Tech
[157]Wake Forest hosts [151]Boston College



Vegas opening odds are posted for Saturday: Duke favored by 5, Virginia favored by 1, Florida State favored by 2, Georgia Tech favored by 9 and Wake Forest favored by 3.5.