The Kobe Assist and Transition Threes

[dcdevil2009]

I read this article (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8719297/how-kobe-bryant-missed-shots-translate-new-nba-statistic-kobe-assist) a few days ago and my first thought was that this is something Duke and Coach K have been doing for years. While the article talks more about the half court game, the "Kobe Assist," or missed shot that gets turned into a put back or offensive rebound and quick score, a case can be made for the open three actually being a better shot than a contested layup in transition. For example, with Cook, Curry, and Mason on a 3-1 or 3-2 break, the defenders tend to play the layup, which usually leaves Curry open on the wing for an uncontested 3. Although a Mason dunk or Cook layup is a higher probability shot than a Curry 3, Duke is in much better position to rebound a missed three because of the numbers and positioning advantage in transition than in the typical half court offense. Thus, even a Curry miss should lead to a Duke possession in the half court. The result is that instead of a 40% chance of three points v. an 80%-90% chance at two points, the likelihood of an offensive rebound and put back or at least offensive rebound makes the transition three just as good of a shot, even if it doesn't go in as often.