Phase III Revised - V2.0 Kelly Impact (through 1st unc) 2012-13

[Newton_14]

This will be an eleven game stretch, starting with Wake Forest on Jan 5th, and ending with our arch rival UNC on Feb th. A host of tough conference opponents, including games at NC State, at Miami, and at FSU. Don’t be shocked if and when our guys drop a game. It’s practically inevitable, but as Ozzie would say, “heck we will win them all”!
The Phase takes us just past mid-way of the conference schedule, but, as in years past, there will still be time for the Master that is Coach K to make changes if required after this Phase ends.
So, following are a few key things to focus on during this phase.


Rebounding- The one wart in an otherwise stellar pre-conference season thus far has been rebounding. Specifically defensive rebounding. Nothing is more demoralizing than to defend like heck for 30 seconds, and then fail to secure the rebound on the miss, and thus far, even weak rebounding teams have found a way to seemingly kill us on the offensive glass. Play with fire long enough and one will get burned. Can this be fixed? Not likely, but it can certainly be improved. I do believe the structure of our defense is a contributing factor, but even with that, Kelly, and the guards simply have to crash the boards harder, and support Mason. Let’s revisit this at the end of the phase to see if improvements were made.
Seth’s Leg- The guy has been a stud thus far averaging 16.2 ppg while making 48% of his shots, and hitting the 3 at a 40% clip. He is also averaging 30.2 mpg. That’s the good part. The bad part is, he sat one game due to the injury and in the back-to-back games, we saw his numbers go down. Conference play is a grind on healthy players, let alone a guy on a gimp wheel. Can Seth sustain the numbers and production through this phase? How do we replace his points if he has to sit games to rest the leg? This leads me to…
Offense/Bench Scoring- Right now we have an incredibly balanced and potent attack with all 5 starters averaging double figures. (Mason- 18.8, Seth- 16.2, Ryan- 12.8, Rasheed- 11.8, Quinn- 11.1). After Quinn however, the next guys is Tyler at 3.9. The 7th (and last) man in the current rotation is Josh who is averaging 1.7. Amile at 3.3 is actually averaging more than Josh in far less minutes. That is a significant drop-off after the 5th starter. However, as long as Seth stays healthy and productive, it likely will not be an issue. If we do lose some or all of Seth’s production, it does become an issue. What then? Well, for one, the other 4 starters will have to team together and raise their individual numbers up enough collectively to offset the decrease in production as much as possible. Outside of that, it would have to be either Amile or Alex. Josh and Tyler are both very comfortable in their current roles, and I think it would be risky to try to get the lost scoring punch from those guys. It could end up backfiring and hurting more than helping.
Rotation/Freshman Improvements- K has, as in past years, has settled into a solid 7 man rotation made up of all upperclassmen except for Diaper Dandy (Sorry Dickie V haters :D ) Rasheed Suliamon. Or in my personal view, a 7.25 man rotation. Amile has played in the first half of every single game except for Santa Clara. He did the same in the Davidson game. I won’t speculate as to why he registered the DNP against Santa Clara, but I do feel that was an anomaly and Amile will play in the first half of each game the rest of the way. Even if it is just for 2-3 minutes, I do see that differently than kids that never leave the bench unless it is mop up duty in the last minute of games. Basically, Tyler is the first sub in normally, backing up all 3 perimeter positions. Josh is next off the bench, backing up both Mason, and Ryan. When Amile makes his first half appearance, he is the rover, either backing up one of the wings, or backing up Mason or Ryan. But mainly it is Tyler and Josh carrying the bench play. I do not have a read yet on what is going on with MP3. Not sure if he is sitting due to issues with the foot still, or if it is because K prefers Josh for now. That is one thing to watch for in this Phase. If deemed healthy, does MP3 become Mason’s backup, leaving Josh to only backup Ryan? As for Alex, I think he will be on the outside looking in, unless we lose Seth to injury, or Rasheed hits the freshman wall.
Rasheed- He is in a bit of a slump offensively. Not terrible by any means, but missing layups and 3’s lately, and just not scoring at the level we’ve been accustomed to seeing. Given the situation mentioned earlier with the offense, we need Rasheed to remain a double digit scorer. Even though I mentioned “Freshman Wall”, I don’t feel Rasheed has hit that. For one, when it happens to freshmen, it normally happens in Phase IV, not the end of Phase II or even during Phase III. Too early for that. Exams are tough on Duke Freshmen so it could be that caused him to hit a little bump in the road. I am not worried, but it is always a good idea to keep an eye on freshmen as they get their first taste of ACC Conference play. It knocked Austin back a bit last year to the point where K sat him after a poor performance down at Clemson early in conference play. Austin came roaring back after the benching. How will Rasheed perform in Phase III?
Rising or Falling?- Every year we hear “Duke peaked too early”. The whispers started early when this team ran the gauntlet taking down Top 5 teams and everyone else that got in their way during November and December. Undefeated against probably the toughest schedule any BCS Conference team faced. “Everybody else will catch them by Feb/Mar” is a common line seen in hoops articles, as well as heard from the talking heads at the Mother Ship. Are they right? I am walking all the way to the very end of the limb and saying “NO”. This team has not peaked IMHO. They can and will improve as the year moves forward. Quinn and Rasheed have a lot of upside. Even the Seniors can play better. The bench guys can certainly improve, especially the 3 freshmen. There is much upside potential with this particular team. If I end up being wrong, I will own up to it, and say so. Will they prove me wrong or right?
Health- It is always important. Seth’s leg, and MP3’s foot have been setbacks already. Marshall could have really benefited from playing in all 13 games and it would have strengthened the team. As amazing as Seth has been, imagine the output were he 100% healthy. We need those two to remain healthy enough to play and contribute, and we need the others to avoid the injury bug.


So those are the key things I will be watching for in Phase III.

I will leave you with this quote. Steph Curry was on the Dan Patrick show this week. Dan asked him who would go further in their post-season tourneys, Seth’s Duke Squad, or Steph’s Golden St squad. His answer “Duke, because they have a Championship Caliber team. We are striving to be a Championship Caliber team, but Duke already is.”

[roywhite]

Thanks, Mark, for the excellent preview of the league season; holidays are past, and looking forward to a steady dose of hoops.

One of my thoughts about this team is how good they seem or can be at finishing games. This is likely an area that we'll see come into play, particularly with a tight conference game on the road.

The ball handling is excellent with Quinn as the primary late game ball handler, along with Rasheed and Seth, and very good big ball handlers in Mason and Ryan; Duke is a very hard team to press. Quinn shows (dare I say) an almost Phil Ford like quality of dribbling through traffic, eluding defenders, and ending up with a layup or a foul shot opportunity in the delay game. Seth and Quinn both have an excellent floater shot in traffic, and use the glass well. There is good speed at 3 positions with Mason, Quinn, and Rasheed to take advantage of break-outs or run away from traps.

Foul shooting -- we've got Mason at 69.2%; Seth 82.4%; Ryan 78.0%; Sheed 80.6%; Quinn 83.3%; and Tyler 72.7% from the line. Very important to hit free throws down the stretch to win games.

Coaching and schemes -- who better than K and his assistants on the sideline for superb late-game coaching, and this team is really getting the hang of the late game delay (see especially Quinn). It's a group overall that has the experience, talent, and know-how to finish and win close games.

[Bob Green]

Coaching and schemes -- who better than K and his assistants on the sideline for superb late-game coaching...

Your post, and a couple of beers, jump started my brainwaves and made me think about an aspect of the game we never cover in these Phase Posts - scouting. What an advantage we have having guys like Coach Collins and Coach Wojo on the sidelines. These are guys Coach K thinks so highly of he brought them along to Beijing and London to scout future opponents during the Olympic Games.

An argument can be made that Duke has a significant advantage over its opponent before the ball is ever tossed up for the opening tip!

[Kedsy]

If we do lose some or all of Seth’s production, it does become an issue. What then? Well, for one, the other 4 starters will have to team together and raise their individual numbers up enough collectively to offset the decrease in production as much as possible. Outside of that, it would have to be either Amile or Alex.

Nice report, Mark. You definitely hit the high spots (although I personally would have put health first).

Regarding the above quoted issue, I'm going to split hairs a little. I don't think we'll miss Seth's scoring as much as we'll miss his shooting. And if you think this is a distinction without a difference, I'll refer you to the Delaware game.

In the 12 games other than Delaware (counting DNPs as 0 minutes), here's a minute and scoring breakdown for Seth, Amile, and Alex:

Seth, 30.2 mpg, 16.2 ppg
Amile, 7.4 mpg, 2.2 ppg
Alex, 3.2 mpg, 1.0 ppg
-----------------------
TOTAL: 40.8 mpg, 19.4 ppg

In the Delaware game, Seth didn't play, and here's how Amile and Alex did:

Amile, 21 mpg, 12 ppg
Alex, 21 mpg, 10 ppg
--------------------
TOTAL: 42 mpg, 22 ppg

Pretty comparable, right? Even a little more scoring. What does it mean? Well, first, I realize Delaware isn't exactly a top-tier team, although according to Pomeroy the Blue Hens are better than BC and Wake and about even with Va Tech. However, I think that game could be a blueprint for what we'll see if Seth misses time. I think Coach K will actually lengthen the rotation so both Amile and Alex play more, essentially using the two of them combined to replace Seth's minutes. Having said that, I doubt they'll get all of the minutes -- they'll probably get around 15 mpg each and the remaining 10 to 12 mpg will be split among Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyler.

So, if we're able to replace Seth's scoring, is it a big deal if he can't go? I still say yes it is, absolutely. Why? Because Seth is our most important outside shooting threat. When the other team has to focus on stopping Seth, it means they can't really double-team Mason or help on Quinn or Ryan or Rasheed. In a way, to quote Reggie Jackson, Seth is the straw that stirs the drink. He's the reason all our other guys are usually guarded in single coverage. So while Alex and Amile could probably replace most or all of Seth's scoring, I think we could see a drop off in production from our other starters that would be a lot harder to replace.

As far as peaking early is concerned, I think the idea is a bit of a canard. Duke almost always does well in the early season (as do most of the top teams). If we do poorly in the post-season, people say we "peaked early." Well, is that really true, or did we just do poorly in the post-season? Is the end of the season really linked to the beginning in that way? Or did we just run into the buzz saw that is a one-and-done tournament? No way to know, I suppose.

[loran16]

Rasheed- He is in a bit of a slump offensively. Not terrible by any means, but missing layups and 3’s lately, and just not scoring at the level we’ve been accustomed to seeing. Given the situation mentioned earlier with the offense, we need Rasheed to remain a double digit scorer. Even though I mentioned “Freshman Wall”, I don’t feel Rasheed has hit that. For one, when it happens to freshmen, it normally happens in Phase IV, not the end of Phase II or even during Phase III. Too early for that. Exams are tough on Duke Freshmen so it could be that caused him to hit a little bump in the road. I am not worried, but it is always a good idea to keep an eye on freshmen as they get their first taste of ACC Conference play. It knocked Austin back a bit last year to the point where K sat him after a poor performance down at Clemson early in conference play. Austin came roaring back after the benching. How will Rasheed perform in Phase III?
”

I'm going to strongly disagree with this here point. You suggested a few causes, but here's the most likely one: Dumb luck. Sheed really has only had two bad games in a row - that's it (his only other game with under double digit scoring included 7 assists and 0 TOs in our blowout of Temple).

You know what's the most common cause of two bad games in a row for any player? Not lack of concentration, not distracted by exams....but just dumb luck. It happens in small samples - shots don't go in, layups are missed, etc. etc. No one is a 100% shooter, even of layups - kids will miss a few here and there and sometimes luck causes the misses to bunch up.

That's it.

[Newton_14]

I'm going to strongly disagree with this here point. You suggested a few causes, but here's the most likely one: Dumb luck. Sheed really has only had two bad games in a row - that's it (his only other game with under double digit scoring included 7 assists and 0 TOs in our blowout of Temple).

You know what's the most common cause of two bad games in a row for any player? Not lack of concentration, not distracted by exams....but just dumb luck. It happens in small samples - shots don't go in, layups are missed, etc. etc. No one is a 100% shooter, even of layups - kids will miss a few here and there and sometimes luck causes the misses to bunch up.

That's it.

Totally agree. Maybe I should have worded it differently. My main point is how will the freshman stud handle his first taste of conference play. As for recent play, I did say it was a bump in the road, and only tossed out one possible reason. Did not mean to suggest that exams definitely was a factor. Just a possibility.

Agree it has only been two subpar games, but conference foes are going to play us very physical, even more than Davidson did. I think it is fair to suggest we don;t know yet how Rasheed will handle it.

[TruBlu]

Your post, and a couple of beers, jump started my brainwaves and made me think about an aspect of the game we never cover in these Phase Posts - scouting. What an advantage we have having guys like Coach Collins and Coach Wojo on the sidelines. These are guys Coach K thinks so highly of he brought them along to Beijing and London to scout future opponents during the Olympic Games.

An argument can be made that Duke has a significant advantage over its opponent before the ball is ever tossed up for the opening tip!

Wow, great news! I must have become a genius last night. Too bad that I slept it off.

[camion]

Wow, great news! I must have become a genius last night. Too bad that I slept it off.

I think beer brains are like beer goggles turned inward. :)

[superdave]

Rasheed- He is in a bit of a slump offensively. Not terrible by any means, but missing layups and 3’s lately, and just not scoring at the level we’ve been accustomed to seeing. Given the situation mentioned earlier with the offense, we need Rasheed to remain a double digit scorer. Even though I mentioned “Freshman Wall”, I don’t feel Rasheed has hit that. For one, when it happens to freshmen, it normally happens in Phase IV, not the end of Phase II or even during Phase III. Too early for that. Exams are tough on Duke Freshmen so it could be that caused him to hit a little bump in the road. I am not worried, but it is always a good idea to keep an eye on freshmen as they get their first taste of ACC Conference play. It knocked Austin back a bit last year to the point where K sat him after a poor performance down at Clemson early in conference play. Austin came roaring back after the benching. How will Rasheed perform in Phase III?


Rasheed has done a poor job the last two games of finishing plays. He seems to be wincing at contact and not being as strong and explosive. I think he will get through that, as it is correctable. He'll revert back to his dynamic self soon.

The great thing about Rasheed is how well he plays within our team. He's the perfect compliment to the other four starters.

I'd like to see two areas of growth for him the next month . First, finishing plays in the paint. He just needs to be stronger and more confident. Second, initiating fast breaks. Often Duke passes up on breaks and secondary breaks to get the ball to our point guard to initiate the offense. Rasheed can push tempo for us and be a one man fast break. Those are easy buckets that will push us to another level.

[Saratoga2]

This will be an eleven game stretch, starting with Wake Forest on Jan 5th, and ending with our arch rival UNC on Feb th. A host of tough conference opponents, including games at NC State, at Miami, and at FSU. Don’t be shocked if and when our guys drop a game. It’s practically inevitable, but as Ozzie would say, “heck we will win them all”!
The Phase takes us just past mid-way of the conference schedule, but, as in years past, there will still be time for the Master that is Coach K to make changes if required after this Phase ends.
So, following are a few key things to focus on during this phase.


Rebounding- We have Amile who at 6'8" and long is a potential improvement over our guards for rebounding. He has shown himself to be a tough player, despite his slender frame. Kelly certainly can do better than he has and even Mason can concentrate more on rebounding. When he does he is a beast on the boards. We also have Marshall who should be able to come in and take away some of the foul worries that can reduce rebounding efforts.
Seth’s Leg- Seth definitely has problems with playing back to back and it is hard to anticipate when his production willfall off. Perhaps the coaches need to wtch carefully and sit him more when he can't poduce. Saved him when we can. Substituting Alex or Tyler for him is not that bad a move. Offense/Bench Scoring-We have Marshall, Alex and Amile whose potential has not been tapped at all. From what I have seen of Alex, he can score and all three would probably help in rebounding, while probably increasing our turnovers and lowering our defensive efficiency. We may have to face Seth's health issues, so it is wise to be prepared.
Rotation/Freshman Improvements- K has, as in past years, has settled into a solid 7 man rotation made up of all upperclassmen except for Diaper Dandy (Sorry Dickie V haters :D ) Rasheed Suliamon. Or in my personal view, a 7.25 man rotation. Amile has played in the first half of every single game except for Santa Clara. He did the same in the Davidson game. I won’t speculate as to why he registered the DNP against Santa Clara, but I do feel that was an anomaly and Amile will play in the first half of each game the rest of the way. Even if it is just for 2-3 minutes, I do see that differently than kids that never leave the bench unless it is mop up duty in the last minute of games. Basically, Tyler is the first sub in normally, backing up all 3 perimeter positions. Josh is next off the bench, backing up both Mason, and Ryan. When Amile makes his first half appearance, he is the rover, either backing up one of the wings, or backing up Mason or Ryan. But mainly it is Tyler and Josh carrying the bench play. I do not have a read yet on what is going on with MP3. Not sure if he is sitting due to issues with the foot still, or if it is because K prefers Josh for now. That is one thing to watch for in this Phase. If deemed healthy, does MP3 become Mason’s backup, leaving Josh to only backup Ryan? As for Alex, I think he will be on the outside looking in, unless we lose Seth to injury, or Rasheed hits the freshman wall.

Health- I am surprised that the Duke medical staff have not come up with a healing process for Seth. It has now been November and December, and we talk about his problems as though they will last for the entire season. Marshall also ought to be in a position to play 10 to 15 minutes soon. Other than those two, the injury bug could strike any of our players. Loss of any of Quinn, Mason or Ryan could really bring the team back to the pack. Last year we saw what happened when Ryan was injured.

So those are the key things I will be watching for in Phase III.

”

I am hoping Phase III will include further development and use of Marshall, Amile and Alex. I think the improvements in rebounding and versatility would offset the possible loss in defensive efficiency and increase in TO's. While I hope for this, after watching Duke for around 30 years, I don't really expect player developement to be a priority.

[TruBlu]

It seems that in the past couple of games, there seems to be an increasing belief by our opponents that the way to beat Duke is by a more physical defense, as has been the case in a few of the last seasons. In the Wake game, it wasn't so much of a "brutal" physicality of the Va Tech model, as it was a lot of hand-checking, grabbing, gentle forearm nudges, and body contact, which apparently was just subtle enough that a lot of it wasn't called by the refs. (This may be part of the reason for some of Rasheed's "slump".)

How we respond to this in Phase III, will have a great deal to do with or success in Phase III and beyond.

[tommy]

It seems that in the past couple of games, there seems to be an increasing belief by our opponents that the way to beat Duke is by a more physical defense, as has been the case in a few of the last seasons. In the Wake game, it wasn't so much of a "brutal" physicality of the Va Tech model, as it was a lot of hand-checking, grabbing, gentle forearm nudges, and body contact, which apparently was just subtle enough that a lot of it wasn't called by the refs. (This may be part of the reason for some of Rasheed's "slump".)

How we respond to this in Phase III, will have a great deal to do with or success in Phase III and beyond.

No way to know of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if the increased physicality of our opponents is related to the perception that our bench is not deep. With the idea being that if they can get into a physical game with Duke, and the refs are calling a tighter game, that could result in Duke getting into foul trouble and expose or at least allow them to investigate the issue of our lack of depth.

[jimsumner]

Rasheed has done a poor job the last two games of finishing plays. He seems to be wincing at contact and not being as strong and explosive. I think he will get through that, as it is correctable. He'll revert back to his dynamic self soon.

The great thing about Rasheed is how well he plays within our team. He's the perfect compliment to the other four starters.

I'd like to see two areas of growth for him the next month . First, finishing plays in the paint. He just needs to be stronger and more confident. Second, initiating fast breaks. Often Duke passes up on breaks and secondary breaks to get the ball to our point guard to initiate the offense. Rasheed can push tempo for us and be a one man fast break. Those are easy buckets that will push us to another level.

Agree that Rasheed needs to finish better through contact. He also has an annoying habit of jumping in the air without having a really clear idea of what he's going to do with the ball. Improv doesn't work as well at this level. Probably just a freshman thing.

But he's a defensive gem and has lots of ways to score the ball. Variety does work at this level.

And he is a great complementary player. A great complimentary player? Not sure. He's kinda quite.

[tommy]

Rasheed has done a poor job the last two games of finishing plays. He seems to be wincing at contact and not being as strong and explosive. I think he will get through that, as it is correctable. He'll revert back to his dynamic self soon.

The great thing about Rasheed is how well he plays within our team. He's the perfect compliment to the other four starters.

I'd like to see two areas of growth for him the next month . First, finishing plays in the paint. He just needs to be stronger and more confident. Second, initiating fast breaks. Often Duke passes up on breaks and secondary breaks to get the ball to our point guard to initiate the offense. Rasheed can push tempo for us and be a one man fast break. Those are easy buckets that will push us to another level.

I agree that he needs to play better through contact (and I don't love some of the facial expressions and body language when he doesn't get a call) but I actually think he's doing a very good job of initiating the break. In fact, that's been one of the things I really like about his game -- he really pushes the ball up, sometimes at almost breakneck speed, and puts a lot of pressure on the defense. It doesn't always result in a shot, but he's forcing the opponent to defend against that push. He should do more of it, as sometimes it'll result in easy shots for us, and at least it discourages the opponent's guards from crashing, which would make our defensive rebounding even more challenging.

[licc85]

I'm going to strongly disagree with this here point. You suggested a few causes, but here's the most likely one: Dumb luck. Sheed really has only had two bad games in a row - that's it (his only other game with under double digit scoring included 7 assists and 0 TOs in our blowout of Temple).

You know what's the most common cause of two bad games in a row for any player? Not lack of concentration, not distracted by exams....but just dumb luck. It happens in small samples - shots don't go in, layups are missed, etc. etc. No one is a 100% shooter, even of layups - kids will miss a few here and there and sometimes luck causes the misses to bunch up.

That's it.

I actually disagree here. Rasheed's bad game against Santa Clara was not "dumb luck." He was nowhere near his normal level of performance on defense. His man, Kevin Foster, ripped us for 29 points that night, and Rasheed's sub-par defensive effort that game was a big reason why. I blame exams and probably lack of sleep affecting his concentration. It's totally understandable for a freshman to be a little overwhelmed by exams and such in his first year, but calling it nothing but luck is not reasonable. This guy is an elite defender, and that's not the type of effort that we expect to see from him.

[CDu]

Nice report, Mark. You definitely hit the high spots (although I personally would have put health first).

Regarding the above quoted issue, I'm going to split hairs a little. I don't think we'll miss Seth's scoring as much as we'll miss his shooting. And if you think this is a distinction without a difference, I'll refer you to the Delaware game.

In the 12 games other than Delaware (counting DNPs as 0 minutes), here's a minute and scoring breakdown for Seth, Amile, and Alex:

Seth, 30.2 mpg, 16.2 ppg
Amile, 7.4 mpg, 2.2 ppg
Alex, 3.2 mpg, 1.0 ppg
-----------------------
TOTAL: 40.8 mpg, 19.4 ppg

In the Delaware game, Seth didn't play, and here's how Amile and Alex did:

Amile, 21 mpg, 12 ppg
Alex, 21 mpg, 10 ppg
--------------------
TOTAL: 42 mpg, 22 ppg

Pretty comparable, right? Even a little more scoring. What does it mean? Well, first, I realize Delaware isn't exactly a top-tier team, although according to Pomeroy the Blue Hens are better than BC and Wake and about even with Va Tech. However, I think that game could be a blueprint for what we'll see if Seth misses time. I think Coach K will actually lengthen the rotation so both Amile and Alex play more, essentially using the two of them combined to replace Seth's minutes. Having said that, I doubt they'll get all of the minutes -- they'll probably get around 15 mpg each and the remaining 10 to 12 mpg will be split among Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyler.

So, if we're able to replace Seth's scoring, is it a big deal if he can't go? I still say yes it is, absolutely. Why? Because Seth is our most important outside shooting threat. When the other team has to focus on stopping Seth, it means they can't really double-team Mason or help on Quinn or Ryan or Rasheed. In a way, to quote Reggie Jackson, Seth is the straw that stirs the drink. He's the reason all our other guys are usually guarded in single coverage. So while Alex and Amile could probably replace most or all of Seth's scoring, I think we could see a drop off in production from our other starters that would be a lot harder to replace.

Well, I think it's a bit of a reach to take a one-game sample against (as you noted) a vastly inferior opponent and suggest it as evidence that the scoring would likely be offset if Curry is out. If Curry sits out, I suspect that our offense will suffer - both in terms of scoring AND shooting.

That is, unless we get an unbelievable step up from one or more of Cook, Sulaimon, Murphy, Jefferson, etc. Cook showed against Clemson that he might be up to the challenge of taking over an offense. It remains to be seen if that could continue. But losing Curry would require a substantial step up (or change of plan) to remain an efficient scoring machine).

Of course, with Kelly out for an indefinite amount of time, it becomes that much more critical that Curry stay healthy and productive.

Phase III has gotten (unfortunately) more interesting/tenuous with the injury to Kelly. Jefferson and/or Murphy are going to need to make huge strides in their development, because I don't think Hairston is ready/able to be a 25+ mpg contributor and I don't think Marshall will share the court with Mason. That means that at least one of those two guys is going to have to provide 15+ mpg for us until Kelly returns.

[Kedsy]

Well, I think it's a bit of a reach to take a one-game sample against (as you noted) a vastly inferior opponent and suggest it as evidence that the scoring would likely be offset if Curry is out. If Curry sits out, I suspect that our offense will suffer - both in terms of scoring AND shooting.

That is, unless we get an unbelievable step up from one or more of Cook, Sulaimon, Murphy, Jefferson, etc. Cook showed against Clemson that he might be up to the challenge of taking over an offense. It remains to be seen if that could continue. But losing Curry would require a substantial step up (or change of plan) to remain an efficient scoring machine).

Of course, with Kelly out for an indefinite amount of time, it becomes that much more critical that Curry stay healthy and productive.

Phase III has gotten (unfortunately) more interesting/tenuous with the injury to Kelly. Jefferson and/or Murphy are going to need to make huge strides in their development, because I don't think Hairston is ready/able to be a 25+ mpg contributor and I don't think Marshall will share the court with Mason. That means that at least one of those two guys is going to have to provide 15+ mpg for us until Kelly returns.

Yeah, I agree completely that Ryan's injury changes the whole equation. Our offense will really suffer now if Seth can't go or is hampered by his injury.

Once Ryan is back and at full speed, however, I still think the Amile/Alex combo could combine for pretty close to the 16 ppg that Seth is giving us. My overall point was that despite the possibility that the subs could make up for Seth's scoring, the overall offense would suffer because losing Seth would make it harder for the other starters to score.


[7]Health- It is always important.


(although I personally would have put health first).

See, Mark, I told you. You should always put health first. :p

[Newton_14]

Yeah, I agree completely that Ryan's injury changes the whole equation. Our offense will really suffer now if Seth can't go or is hampered by his injury.

Once Ryan is back and at full speed, however, I still think the Amile/Alex combo could combine for pretty close to the 16 ppg that Seth is giving us. My overall point was that despite the possibility that the subs could make up for Seth's scoring, the overall offense would suffer because losing Seth would make it harder for the other starters to score.





See, Mark, I told you. You should always put health first. :p

Lesson Learned Kedsy. Health will be Item 1 in all future Phase posts. I should have known better, and here I was only worried about Seth. I just did not have the vibe that someone else would go down. I accept my punishment.

[Kedsy]

I just did not have the vibe that someone else would go down.

Don't blame yourself, Mark. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.

[cptnflash]

Nice report, Mark. You definitely hit the high spots (although I personally would have put health first).

Regarding the above quoted issue, I'm going to split hairs a little. I don't think we'll miss Seth's scoring as much as we'll miss his shooting. And if you think this is a distinction without a difference, I'll refer you to the Delaware game.

In the 12 games other than Delaware (counting DNPs as 0 minutes), here's a minute and scoring breakdown for Seth, Amile, and Alex:

Seth, 30.2 mpg, 16.2 ppg
Amile, 7.4 mpg, 2.2 ppg
Alex, 3.2 mpg, 1.0 ppg
-----------------------
TOTAL: 40.8 mpg, 19.4 ppg

In the Delaware game, Seth didn't play, and here's how Amile and Alex did:

Amile, 21 mpg, 12 ppg
Alex, 21 mpg, 10 ppg
--------------------
TOTAL: 42 mpg, 22 ppg

Pretty comparable, right? Even a little more scoring. What does it mean? Well, first, I realize Delaware isn't exactly a top-tier team, although according to Pomeroy the Blue Hens are better than BC and Wake and about even with Va Tech. However, I think that game could be a blueprint for what we'll see if Seth misses time. I think Coach K will actually lengthen the rotation so both Amile and Alex play more, essentially using the two of them combined to replace Seth's minutes. Having said that, I doubt they'll get all of the minutes -- they'll probably get around 15 mpg each and the remaining 10 to 12 mpg will be split among Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyler.

So, if we're able to replace Seth's scoring, is it a big deal if he can't go? I still say yes it is, absolutely. Why? Because Seth is our most important outside shooting threat. When the other team has to focus on stopping Seth, it means they can't really double-team Mason or help on Quinn or Ryan or Rasheed. In a way, to quote Reggie Jackson, Seth is the straw that stirs the drink. He's the reason all our other guys are usually guarded in single coverage. So while Alex and Amile could probably replace most or all of Seth's scoring, I think we could see a drop off in production from our other starters that would be a lot harder to replace.

As far as peaking early is concerned, I think the idea is a bit of a canard. Duke almost always does well in the early season (as do most of the top teams). If we do poorly in the post-season, people say we "peaked early." Well, is that really true, or did we just do poorly in the post-season? Is the end of the season really linked to the beginning in that way? Or did we just run into the buzz saw that is a one-and-done tournament? No way to know, I suppose.

Even before Ryan's injury, this was a ridiculous comparison. Does anyone honestly believe that we could replace Seth Curry, who so far this year has taken 25% of our shots when he's on the floor and posted a 118.3 offensive efficiency rating, with a combination of two players that have dramatically lower efficiency ratings AND lower usage rates?

I continue to be surprised by the lack of appreciation for our starters that is evident in posts like this. Every possible indicator you could ask for literally screams that they are the key to our season - statistics (old and new), experience (individually and collectively), and most importantly, Coach K himself, who has over and over again defended his short rotation by emphasizing the degree of separation between our starters and our bench players. In his most recent postgame press conference, he compared our team to the Olympic team, saying that just as there was a reason that LeBron, Carmelo, KD, and Chris Paul played substantially more minutes than some of the other best players in the world that were also on Team USA, there's a reason that our starters play way more minutes than our bench guys. It's not because our bench players aren't good - they are! It's because our starters, including Seth, are WAY better than the guys playing behind them.

I don't get why anyone would look at a one-game sample against a drastically inferior opponent and conclude otherwise.

[Kedsy]

Even before Ryan's injury, this was a ridiculous comparison. Does anyone honestly believe that we could replace Seth Curry, who so far this year has taken 25% of our shots when he's on the floor and posted a 118.3 offensive efficiency rating, with a combination of two players that have dramatically lower efficiency ratings AND lower usage rates?

I continue to be surprised by the lack of appreciation for our starters that is evident in posts like this. Every possible indicator you could ask for literally screams that they are the key to our season - statistics (old and new), experience (individually and collectively), and most importantly, Coach K himself, who has over and over again defended his short rotation by emphasizing the degree of separation between our starters and our bench players. In his most recent postgame press conference, he compared our team to the Olympic team, saying that just as there was a reason that LeBron, Carmelo, KD, and Chris Paul played substantially more minutes than some of the other best players in the world that were also on Team USA, there's a reason that our starters play way more minutes than our bench guys. It's not because our bench players aren't good - they are! It's because our starters, including Seth, are WAY better than the guys playing behind them.

I don't get why anyone would look at a one-game sample against a drastically inferior opponent and conclude otherwise.


So, if we're able to replace Seth's scoring, is it a big deal if he can't go? I still say yes it is, absolutely. Why? Because Seth is our most important outside shooting threat. When the other team has to focus on stopping Seth, it means they can't really double-team Mason or help on Quinn or Ryan or Rasheed. In a way, to quote Reggie Jackson, Seth is the straw that stirs the drink. He's the reason all our other guys are usually guarded in single coverage. So while Alex and Amile could probably replace most or all of Seth's scoring, I think we could see a drop off in production from our other starters that would be a lot harder to replace.

What I don't get is why some people don't bother to read the posts they attack. There was absolutely no "lack of appreciation for our starters" in my post. The point was to say how important Seth is, much more important than just his scoring output. Also, if you've been paying any attention, you'd know that I've been defending Seth on other threads (against folks who expressed their belief that he should come off the bench so that Tyler or Alex or Amile could start in his place).

[Newton_14]

With it not being known if or when we will get Kelly back, I felt it was time to hit the reset button. K said as much himself this past week, basically saying that the team that started 15-0 and went to Number 1 in the Country is no more. This is now a very different team, so I wanted to assess where we are and what to expect moving forward.

For all intents and purposes we are actually back to Phase I, but without the benefit of having gone through a pre-season training camp designing the style of play on both sides of the ball. The "new team" had a 3 practice training camp to prepare for the first game of the season, a tough, close loss at NC State. They then bounced back with a solid win at home against a young Ga Tech team who played well. (And for those that think that all games against the likes of the Clemson's, Ga Tech's, BC's, should be out of the gate blowouts, I suggest you get a reality check on how conference play works for one, and two read up on these teams to understand they are not horrible basketball teams with no talent. Look no further than tonight's State/Clemson game in Raleigh that went to the wire with State squeaking out the 4 point win)

But on to Duke and Phase 3.0 revisited/Phase 1.

1. Health

Seth seems to have bounced back from the ankle injury, and reports are that the shin injury is actually improving. Still he is being held out of almost all practices with Tyler Thornton practicing with the first team and pretending to be Seth, so the team can practice the same offensive sets they will run in the games with the real Seth. So far it is working as Seth is off to a great start. Marshall is still playing catch up from all the time missed with his injury. Hopefully he can improve a little each week to be able to give Mason a breather here and there in games, and be able to help if Mason gets in foul trouble. With only 9 scholarship players available, and only 8 that can practice, we can't afford any more injuries, and Seth has to stay healthy enough to play, period.

2. Team Identity Offensively


It appears K is still committed to an inside-outside approach, which is great. We have a NPOY candidate in Mason, and he needs to be the focal point of the offense. He has started out fairly strong with 2 double/doubles (15/11 against State, and 16/13 against Tech). I thought he played well in both games, and just struggled knocking down shots in the first half against Tech. He got going in the 2nd half and finished strong, even getting an on court hug from K during a TO. Not having the stretch 4 in Kelly on this team has a significant impact, and it will be interesting to see what K comes up with to make this team effective offensively. Spacing is a huge problem, and it impacts 3 players moreso than others. For Mason, it means the opponents PF will be much closer to him, to both limit the space, and be able to double down more easily. Mason will have to work harder to get the shot he wants. It impacts Rasheed because there will be less lanes available for him to attack the basket off the dribble. Rasheed will have to shoot it well from 3, and use the midrange jumper more often. He can still get all the way to the rack, but like Mason, will have to work harder to do so. Quinn is the 3rd player impacted by less space. It will make it harder for him to drive and kick to Mason, due to the aforementioned opponent PF being closer to clog things up. Seth is the only player where things should be fairly the same, other than again, having less space to drive. All that said, what role will our PF play on offense? High Post to screen for guards and dump down to Mason in a High-Low set? That's the unknown for now.

3. Starting Lineup/Rotation


Josh has gotten the nod as the PF starter in both games, and played well for the most part, especially against State, but Amile has really come on strong in these two games. He is defending better, bringing great energy, rebounding well, and showing a great knack of using his length, and angles to score in the lane. Based on that he started the 2nd Half against Tech. I really like this kid's game, and all he lacks is strength, weight, and experience. If he can sustain this level of play, I like his chances to become the starter, with Josh going back to the role he had prior to losing Ryan. However, either way, we are not likely to get the scoring Ryan gave us from Amile/Josh. With that, K has given more minutes to Alex in these two games than before. It seems Alex has been practicing well and has earned more minutes, and K is likely trying to get Alex jump started much like Amile, in the hopes of getting more offense, and more rebounding. Alex has shown he can rebound well. Tyler is still the first guard off the bench, backing up the point and both wing positions. Don't see that changing. Marshall will get small minutes giving Mason a breather, as well as getting a couple of minutes if both Amile and Josh are in foul trouble. The 4 set starters, plus Amile, Josh, and Tyler will get the bulk of the minutes, but it looks like Alex will get some burn each game as well, even in both halves, no matter the score.

4. Team Defense


Defense can still be good but likely not as good as with Ryan. Mason was already playing heavy minutes and without Ryan, it looks like he will go the full 40 barring foul trouble. Mason is in great shape, but a big playing that many minutes has to feel the effects. He has to pace himself, insure to avoid foul trouble, and help out Amile, and to a lesser degree Josh, when they make mistakes that Ryan likely would not have made. Neither Amile nor Josh are the shot blockers that Ryan was either. Amile will block some shots but has to cut down on his fouls.

5. Improve or Slide?


In the original Phase III I stated the team had not peaked and could absolutely improve. As that team is no longer intact, it is a moot point as we will never know. If Ryan comes back it will be a case of "can they get back to the level where they were". This current team however, can most definitely improve. The question is, how much? The original team was hands down a strong Final Four type team. The current team is not. I do think they are hands down a Sweet 16 team though, and the question is, can they improve enough to be an Elite 8 team or enough to make the Final Four? We will learn a lot about those questions in the rest of this Phase III 2.0 or Phase 1 2.0 depending on how you view the situation.


To be honest, I hope it turns out that we do not get that answer, as I hope it becomes a moot point due to getting Ryan back! Then we get to reset once again, and see yet another new team, with our All American "Stretch 4" back, this time with a couple of teammates named Amile and Alex that are much better players than they were when Ryan last played with them. That team could be really special.

Only time will tell, but for now it is time to focus on the improvement of the current team. Miami will be a great test, and give us more information in the quest for the answers we are all seeking.

Can't wait to see what tricks the ol master K has up his sleeve!

[Kedsy]

However, either way, we are not likely to get the scoring Ryan gave us from Amile/Josh.

Great restatement of the Phase report, Mark. You hit all the major points (and I'm happy to see you've put health back up top where it belongs). Really nice job.

The one point that I'd like to push is where Ryan's absence hurts us. I don't necessarily think it's the points that Ryan scored himself. He's averaging 13.4 points for the season, and the Amile/Josh combo is averaging 12.0 for the two games since Ryan's been out (although admittedly, the duo is averaging 38 mpg and Ryan only averaged 28+ mpg). So I don't think that's such a big deal. No, on offense we're being hurt for several reasons. You've hit on some of them (easier for opponents to double Mason and stop drives into the paint), but I think some people are overlooking the effect Ryan's absence has on our outside shooting.

I apologize for quoting myself, but this is something I wrote in the Ryan Kelly Vigil thread:

I believe there are gradations to the difficulty of the same shot, depending on the defense. The first level would be shooting with a guy right in your face. It's really hard to make that shot at a high percentage, and even Seth doesn't do it all that well. The second level would be shooting with a defender close enough to challenge your shot, but not close enough to block it if you catch and shoot quickly. Seth does that amazingly well, but nobody else on Duke's roster can do that at a high percentage (except of course Ryan). The one time Rasheed tried it [vs. Tech] was his only miss from three. The third level is shooting with nobody within 10 feet of you, and Rasheed, Quinn, and Tyler all do that pretty well.

And this is where Ryan's absence comes in. With Ryan in the game, neither Seth's defender nor Ryan's defender can help on defense. Nor Mason's, of course, and Quinn usually has the ball. So the help defender has to come from someone guarding a wing. Tyler's man, if Tyler is in the game, or Rasheed's man if Tyler's on the bench. Or possibly Quinn's man if Quinn doesn't have the ball and isn't all the way up top. This is why Rasheed and Tyler got so many wide open looks ("third level" from my previous paragraph) during our first 15 games.

Without Ryan, the help defender is the person guarding Josh/Amile. The wing defenders get to stay home, and so Rasheed and Tyler (and Quinn, for the most part) only get "second level" looks, and they're just not that effective at knocking those down consistently.

So, if you think about the "four factors," as reflected by Pomeroy and elsewhere, our eFG% will continue to be down for as long as Ryan is out. To keep our offense at its previous level of efficiency, we'd have to improve on one or more of: (a) cutting down on turnovers; (b) increase offensive rebounding; and/or (c) reach the free throw line more (and make more shots). Having Amile (or even Josh, although to a lesser extent) in the game probably means we can increase our offensive rebounding, but it's hard to see us cutting down on turnovers (although hopefully we're able to keep from an increase in turnovers) or converting more free throws (Ryan got to the line almost 4 times a game and was one of our top free throw shooters, neither of which is going to happen from Amile/Josh). And it's unlikely our offensive rebounding will increase enough to make up for our decrease in eFG%. Which means if we continue the style we've played in the last two games our offensive efficiency will continue to go down.

Our defensive efficiency is also obviously in jeopardy, especially against teams like State and Miami who have very effective PFs who Ryan would guard much more effectively than Josh and the still-learning Amile.

So where does that leave us? Maybe just where we are, hoping that our decreased efficiencies are still good enough to win most games. The only strategic twist that I can think of would involve Quinn and Rasheed slashing and driving more, leading to either more layups and/or better kickouts (giving us more "third level" shooting opportunities), and thus boosting our eFG%. I don't know how likely that is to succeed, however.

Fortunately, Coach K is about a bzillion times more knowledgeable than I am and hopefully he'll come up with a different strategic twist that will have a higher probability of success.

[slower]

No way to know of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if the increased physicality of our opponents is related to the perception that our bench is not deep. With the idea being that if they can get into a physical game with Duke, and the refs are calling a tighter game, that could result in Duke getting into foul trouble and expose or at least allow them to investigate the issue of our lack of depth.

And if the refs are letting them play, they can just continue to mug us all night long. Sounds like a win/win for the bad guys.

[tommy]

2. Team Identity Offensively


It appears K is still committed to an inside-outside approach, which is great. We have a NPOY candidate in Mason, and he needs to be the focal point of the offense. He has started out fairly strong with 2 double/doubles (15/11 against State, and 16/13 against Tech). I thought he played well in both games, and just struggled knocking down shots in the first half against Tech. He got going in the 2nd half and finished strong, even getting an on court hug from K during a TO. Not having the stretch 4 in Kelly on this team has a significant impact, and it will be interesting to see what K comes up with to make this team effective offensively. Spacing is a huge problem, and it impacts 3 players moreso than others. For Mason, it means the opponents PF will be much closer to him, to both limit the space, and be able to double down more easily. Mason will have to work harder to get the shot he wants.



Really good summary. I'd add one thing with regard to the impact on Mason on offense. Because the doubles can now come more aggressively, Mason is going to have to be quicker and better in passing out of those doubles. Sure, sometimes he should be able to make quicker moves with the ball before the double arrives. But sometimes the double will get there and he's going to have to deal with it, preferably in ways that lead directly to good shots for others rather than simply passing back out to the perimeter for a re-set. The guys who are likely to be open when Mason is doubled are, as you say, Amile and Josh. If they make aggressive cuts and make themselves available for passes from Mason, they're going to get some opportunities. What we've already seen is that Amile is better than is Josh at converting opportunities close to the basket. Josh does not finish particularly well, in part because he is not a good leaper. I think that, in addition to Amile's scrappiness under the basket at both ends, his ability to finish plays is a reason that his minutes are increasing in Ryan's absence, at the expense of Josh.

[greybeard]

Rashead: Rashead looks to me that he is playing outside his comfort zone, in terms of intensity. He is handling it well, but he is doing an awful lot and there are times when I sense a turned ankle or something like it coming. Getting frequent, short blows, a minute or so, can calm down a super charged mind. Going with a defensive line up without Rashead when Duke jumps ahead by 6 to 8 points and sticking with it until K senses that that tactic has begun losing efficacy (K has done that before and might well be doing it now, I don't watch that much) seems li9kie a good idea to me.

For what it's worth, my intuition was that Kelly's having upped the intensity of his play on both ends, adding a power component not seen before, was risky business.

Intuition: I'd be less concerned with Rashead's hitting the freshman wall, then with his stretching the envelop without frequent breaks. Even then, pushing as long and hard as this kid has been doing, I see him as very vulnerable.

[Newton_14]

Great restatement of the Phase report, Mark. You hit all the major points (and I'm happy to see you've put health back up top where it belongs). Really nice job.

The one point that I'd like to push is where Ryan's absence hurts us. I don't necessarily think it's the points that Ryan scored himself. He's averaging 13.4 points for the season, and the Amile/Josh combo is averaging 12.0 for the two games since Ryan's been out (although admittedly, the duo is averaging 38 mpg and Ryan only averaged 28+ mpg). So I don't think that's such a big deal. No, on offense we're being hurt for several reasons. You've hit on some of them (easier for opponents to double Mason and stop drives into the paint), but I think some people are overlooking the effect Ryan's absence has on our outside shooting.

I apologize for quoting myself, but this is something I wrote in the Ryan Kelly Vigil thread:

I believe there are gradations to the difficulty of the same shot, depending on the defense. The first level would be shooting with a guy right in your face. It's really hard to make that shot at a high percentage, and even Seth doesn't do it all that well. The second level would be shooting with a defender close enough to challenge your shot, but not close enough to block it if you catch and shoot quickly. Seth does that amazingly well, but nobody else on Duke's roster can do that at a high percentage (except of course Ryan). The one time Rasheed tried it [vs. Tech] was his only miss from three. The third level is shooting with nobody within 10 feet of you, and Rasheed, Quinn, and Tyler all do that pretty well.

And this is where Ryan's absence comes in. With Ryan in the game, neither Seth's defender nor Ryan's defender can help on defense. Nor Mason's, of course, and Quinn usually has the ball. So the help defender has to come from someone guarding a wing. Tyler's man, if Tyler is in the game, or Rasheed's man if Tyler's on the bench. Or possibly Quinn's man if Quinn doesn't have the ball and isn't all the way up top. This is why Rasheed and Tyler got so many wide open looks ("third level" from my previous paragraph) during our first 15 games.

Without Ryan, the help defender is the person guarding Josh/Amile. The wing defenders get to stay home, and so Rasheed and Tyler (and Quinn, for the most part) only get "second level" looks, and they're just not that effective at knocking those down consistently.

So, if you think about the "four factors," as reflected by Pomeroy and elsewhere, our eFG% will continue to be down for as long as Ryan is out. To keep our offense at its previous level of efficiency, we'd have to improve on one or more of: (a) cutting down on turnovers; (b) increase offensive rebounding; and/or (c) reach the free throw line more (and make more shots). Having Amile (or even Josh, although to a lesser extent) in the game probably means we can increase our offensive rebounding, but it's hard to see us cutting down on turnovers (although hopefully we're able to keep from an increase in turnovers) or converting more free throws (Ryan got to the line almost 4 times a game and was one of our top free throw shooters, neither of which is going to happen from Amile/Josh). And it's unlikely our offensive rebounding will increase enough to make up for our decrease in eFG%. Which means if we continue the style we've played in the last two games our offensive efficiency will continue to go down.

Our defensive efficiency is also obviously in jeopardy, especially against teams like State and Miami who have very effective PFs who Ryan would guard much more effectively than Josh and the still-learning Amile.

So where does that leave us? Maybe just where we are, hoping that our decreased efficiencies are still good enough to win most games. The only strategic twist that I can think of would involve Quinn and Rasheed slashing and driving more, leading to either more layups and/or better kickouts (giving us more "third level" shooting opportunities), and thus boosting our eFG%. I don't know how likely that is to succeed, however.

Fortunately, Coach K is about a bzillion times more knowledgeable than I am and hopefully he'll come up with a different strategic twist that will have a higher probability of success.

Thanks. I definitely see your points here. I do still feel that the impact to Seth is less than the others. We still have good scheme's using multiple screens to free Seth for a 3 ball and the dude is just flat out money if he gets the slightest opening. He showed that again in the Tech game. As an example, how many times have we seen him come of the double baseline screens, catch the pass from Quinn in the corner and have to turn to square up, all while the defender is closing fast, and he still buries the shot. Same thing on the ball screens, and handoff ball screens up top. Seth has just become deadly on those shots and he can still get those looks w/o Ryan. I do agree 100% on your theory of how the Ryan loss impacts all the other shooters though.



[/LIST]


Really good summary. I'd add one thing with regard to the impact on Mason on offense. Because the doubles can now come more aggressively, Mason is going to have to be quicker and better in passing out of those doubles. Sure, sometimes he should be able to make quicker moves with the ball before the double arrives. But sometimes the double will get there and he's going to have to deal with it, preferably in ways that lead directly to good shots for others rather than simply passing back out to the perimeter for a re-set. The guys who are likely to be open when Mason is doubled are, as you say, Amile and Josh. If they make aggressive cuts and make themselves available for passes from Mason, they're going to get some opportunities. What we've already seen is that Amile is better than is Josh at converting opportunities close to the basket. Josh does not finish particularly well, in part because he is not a good leaper. I think that, in addition to Amile's scrappiness under the basket at both ends, his ability to finish plays is a reason that his minutes are increasing in Ryan's absence, at the expense of Josh.

Thanks Tommy. Good thoughts. One advantage as you note, is catching Josh and Amile's defender napping as they will view them as non-threats. Mason has done a good job so far dumping a quick pass down to Josh and Amile for a quick layup. I think that will continue, especially with Josh as no matter how much film they watch, teams will just not respect Josh and to a lesser degree Amile, as scoring threats. Definitely agree that Mason will have to process the situation quicker, and quickly go for the kill scoring himself, or kickout to a shooter, or dump down to Josh or Amile.

[Kedsy]

I do still feel that the impact to Seth is less than the others.

I completely agree about Seth. I guess if I were to oversimplify I'd say that with Ryan we have four good-to-great shooters on the floor at any particular time but without Ryan we only have one great shooter and two sort-of-OK shooters (due to the more difficult shots they get). That's a huge difference that will adversely affect our offensive efficiency for as long as Ryan is out.

Having said that, I think eventually Rasheed and Quinn could reach the point where they're good-to-very-good shooters even with someone challenging their shot, but I have doubts that they can get to that point this season.

[Furniture]

I completely agree about Seth. I guess if I were to oversimplify I'd say that with Ryan we have four good-to-great shooters on the floor at any particular time but without Ryan we only have one great shooter and two sort-of-OK shooters (due to the more difficult shots they get). That's a huge difference that will adversely affect our offensive efficiency for as long as Ryan is out.

Having said that, I think eventually Rasheed and Quinn could reach the point where they're good-to-very-good shooters even with someone challenging their shot, but I have doubts that they can get to that point this season.

Aren't Quinn's numbers close to Ryan's?

[Kedsy]

Aren't Quinn's numbers close to Ryan's?

My point is that while Quinn can hit a wide open jumper, he's not nearly as good if his shot is challenged or he has to get his shot off quickly. It's only two games (and thus perhaps too small a sample to draw any convincing conclusions), but since Ryan has been out Quinn has shot 2 for 11 from three point range (18%). I believe it's because the shots he's taken are less open than when Ryan was spacing the floor for us.

[Indoor66]

My point is that while Quinn can hit a wide open jumper, he's not nearly as good if his shot is challenged or he has to get his shot off quickly.

That statement applies to almost all players, not just Quinn.

[Dsuke17]

1. Health

Seth seems to have bounced back from the ankle injury, and reports are that the shin injury is actually improving. Still he is being held out of almost all practices with Tyler Thornton practicing with the first team and pretending to be Seth, so the team can practice the same offensive sets they will run in the games with the real Seth. So far it is working as Seth is off to a great start. Marshall is still playing catch up from all the time missed with his injury. Hopefully he can improve a little each week to be able to give Mason a breather here and there in games, and be able to help if Mason gets in foul trouble. With only 9 scholarship players available, and only 8 that can practice, we can't afford any more injuries, and Seth has to stay healthy enough to play, period.



Talk about practice, it must be nice to have Rodney Hood in practice. Even though we have those injuries, his presence can keep practice competitive and push other players.

It's off topic but good things have happened when we have a transfer sitting out. Our last two transfers are Seth and Dahntay Jones. Remember what happened in the year they sat out? I believe their help in practice had something to do with developing the team. And of course they had great career for themselves. Roshown McLeod and Dahntay Jones both made 1st team all-ACC as senior and Seth has good chance to make 1st team this season.

[Saratoga2]

One key ingredient that we miss with Ryan out is leadership on the floor. Of all the current Duke players, I think Ryan exhibited that quality more than any other. In my view, Quinn is second in that regard and Seth is third. When things get difficult, you need someone talking and guiding players so that the emotional highs and lows don't impact their thinking. You can't expect Freshmen to contribute much in leadership, nor can you with role players, so Ryan's loss is felt in many ways.

[Kedsy]

That statement applies to almost all players, not just Quinn.

True, but some more than others. Seth and Ryan, for example, still seem to hit a high percentage in that situation. Rasheed, Quinn, and Tyler don't appear to do so.

My main point, though, is with Ryan in the lineup, all our players are likely to get more wide open looks than they do when Ryan's not in the lineup, and so our overall eFG% will be a lot worse without him. In other words, his absence affects all our players' efficiencies and it's not just a matter of replacing the points he scores himself.

[CDu]

True, but some more than others. Seth and Ryan, for example, still seem to hit a high percentage in that situation. Rasheed, Quinn, and Tyler don't appear to do so.

I'm not sure that I'd extend this comment to Kelly. We don't exactly have a huge sample size (1 game) for Kelly as a shooter without another great shooter beside him. And that one game was against a vastly inferior opponent.

I think it's clearly appropriate for Curry, as he's continued to shoot at a high percentage even without Kelly. But it appears to me that Kelly gets most of his 3pt makes on open looks (rather than in a defender's face). So I'd be inclined to group him more with the others than with Curry. Kelly just benefits more than the guards because bigs aren't comfortable getting out and challenging 3pt shooters.


My main point, though, is with Ryan in the lineup, all our players are likely to get more wide open looks than they do when Ryan's not in the lineup, and so our overall eFG% will be a lot worse without him. In other words, his absence affects all our players' efficiencies and it's not just a matter of replacing the points he scores himself.

On this I totally agree. Having a PF who can space the floor definitely makes life easier for the offense overall.

[Kedsy]

I'm not sure that I'd extend this comment to Kelly. We don't exactly have a huge sample size (1 game) for Kelly as a shooter without another great shooter beside him. And that one game was against a vastly inferior opponent.

I think it's clearly appropriate for Curry, as he's continued to shoot at a high percentage even without Kelly. But it appears to me that Kelly gets most of his 3pt makes on open looks (rather than in a defender's face). So I'd be inclined to group him more with the others than with Curry. Kelly just benefits more than the guards because bigs aren't comfortable getting out and challenging 3pt shooters.

You may be right. Opposing PFs don't always get right in Ryan's face, and if he's being guarded by a smaller defender the smaller guy could be relatively close to him and still not be able to bother the shot.

Assuming you're right, that would suggest Seth is just as important to our overall offense as Ryan is. Hopefully he can make it all the way to the end playing on one leg. And I shudder to think how bogged down our offense might get if both of them are out.