Clemson or FSU?

[Cavlaw]

Both teams got the wins they needed to stay alive this week, but the chips have fallen to pit the last two ACC teams fighting for an NCAA bid against each other in the first round of the ACC Tournament, with the winner to take on UNC in round 2.

It appears to be an elimination game. The winner keeps its hopes of an at-large bid alive (and can improve its position with a good showing against UNC or become a virtual lock with a win), the loser is ousted from the brackets and heads to the NIT.

It's a shame that things didn't work out to give both teams a shot at a first-round win. I believe the edge here goes to FSU, but that a win doesn't ensure a bid for them. Thoughts?

[vango]

Both teams got the wins they needed to stay alive this week, but the chips have fallen to pit the last two ACC teams fighting for an NCAA bid against each other in the first round of the ACC Tournament, with the winner to take on UNC in round 2.

It appears to be an elimination game. The winner keeps its hopes of an at-large bid alive (and can improve its position with a good showing against UNC or become a virtual lock with a win), the loser is ousted from the brackets and heads to the NIT.

It's a shame that things didn't work out to give both teams a shot at a first-round win. I believe the edge here goes to FSU, but that a win doesn't ensure a bid for them. Thoughts?

Your post looked lonely Cav. Surprised not more takers of this issue. When I saw the brackets my eyes went right to this one as the one I want to watch (asside from ours) Good thing I telecommute on Thursdays! Ha, Ha!!!

This could be the best game of the ACC tournament. I think you're spot-on with the implications. I see Clemson as in the top-10 of those who miss the tournament. I see FSU as in the top-5 who miss. I think Clemson has to win two and with that win over UNC they make it. I think FSU can get in with a win over the Tigers and a really good showing against UNC.

Of course, a lot depends. Creighton took somebody's spot yesterday. More of that could still happen. That's the wild card.....

[DukeUsul]

So I agree that Clemson and FSU both need one win and probably the upset over UNC. I'm not sure if a "strong showing" against the Heels would make a difference. I guess it depends on how many low or mid-major surprise conf winners steal spots.

And I'm not sure if Creighton winning over the Salukis is stealing a spot. Ken Pom's RPI has the Blue Jays listed at 21 (although that's after the win). Seems like they might have been high enough anyway.

Good thing my boss is a Clemson grad. Looks like we'll be going to lunch on Thursday.

[Klemnop]

Creighton was already in. They didn't "take" any open spot.

On the plus side for Clemson:
6 Wins vs. RPI Top 50 teams.
9 Wins vs. RPI Top 66 teams.
21 wins.
7-9 vs. the second most difficult (behind Duke) schedule in the #1 RPI conference.
2-0 vs. FSU (competitive bubble team)
1-0 @ ODU (competitive bubble team)
1-0 vs. UGA (competitive bubble team)
Six Road wins vs. Major conference competition: ODU, Minnesota, South Carolina, NCState, FSU and VaTech
Clemson was also up on UVa by 16 with 10 minutes to play. Sean Singletary single-handedly beat Clemson with an unconscious display down the stretch.

I don't know what FSU has going for them? Win vs. Florida. Win @ Duke (where, by the way, Clemson was tied with 2.5...er, I mean 4.7 seconds to go). Win vs. Maryland. Otherwise there's not a lot there.

I think if the Committe were selecting today that Clemson would be clear pick ahead of FSU.

And I think it sucks that Clemson has to beat FSU a third time to prove that they're a more worthy option than a team that at best will finish 1-2 against them.

[DukeUsul]

Agreed Klemnop. Clemson looks better on paper than FSU right now. I wonder how much the late season slide will be a factor though.

[phaedrus]

decent case for clemson, but you seem to shrug off florida state's 3 wins against top 15 (depending on the ranking) teams, including AT duke, and a win against vtech. what top 25 wins does clemson have besides yesterday's? meanwhile, clemson is 4-9 in their last 13 while fsu's 1-4 slide can at least be attributed to not having their second leading scorer. fsu was also out playing florida, at wisconsin, and at pitt in november while clemson was cleaning up against the likes of wofford, furman, and charleston southern.

every writer i've read puts fsu in over clemson, and i'm inclined to agree.

[vango]

Creighton was already in. They didn't "take" any open spot.

On the plus side for Clemson:
6 Wins vs. RPI Top 50 teams.
9 Wins vs. RPI Top 66 teams.
21 wins.
7-9 vs. the second most difficult (behind Duke) schedule in the #1 RPI conference.
2-0 vs. FSU (competitive bubble team)
1-0 @ ODU (competitive bubble team)
1-0 vs. UGA (competitive bubble team)
Six Road wins vs. Major conference competition: ODU, Minnesota, South Carolina, NCState, FSU and VaTech
Clemson was also up on UVa by 16 with 10 minutes to play. Sean Singletary single-handedly beat Clemson with an unconscious display down the stretch.

I don't know what FSU has going for them? Win vs. Florida. Win @ Duke (where, by the way, Clemson was tied with 2.5...er, I mean 4.7 seconds to go). Win vs. Maryland. Otherwise there's not a lot there.

I think if the Committe were selecting today that Clemson would be clear pick ahead of FSU.

And I think it sucks that Clemson has to beat FSU a third time to prove that they're a more worthy option than a team that at best will finish 1-2 against them.

OK - bad choice. You know what I mean - it always happens - teams busting the bracket. George Mason could do it tonight.

Anyhow, didn't know that about Creighton so I'm impressed. Thanks for setting me straight.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I think with a win on Thursday Florida State will stamp it's ticket to the tournament. I think Clemson would need two wins to be a sure thing.

And frankly, if both teams can't get in, I'd rather Florida State make it. They are a much better team with Tony Douglas in the lineup; a team that can beat anyone on a given night. And Thorton is a beast of a player. It would be nice to see him get in the tournament in his last year.

On top of that, if they do make the tournament, I think Clemson is much more likely to be one and done. Florida State has the potential to make a run to the Sweet Sixteen and possibly beyond (though I don't think they necessarily will), but I can't see Clemson getting out of the second round and they'd be pretty lucky even to get that far.

[Klemnop]

Well, Clemson played who they were told to play. The ACC determined the ACC-Big 10 match-ups. Clemson drew Minnesota. Then proceeded to beat them so badly (at their house) that Monson resigned the next day.

Clemson played ODU in their home tournament and won. Clemson beat BC by 20 and won @VaTech. Clemson beat three SEC teams, including a Miss. State team that may just nudge themselves into the tournament as well.

And, oh by the way, Clemson beat FSU in Tally. Then pounded them in Littlejohn. I'm nost sure why that simple fact gets so little attention in the conversation. Two teams with relatively even resumes...and one team has owned the other in head-to-head match-ups.

I think writers and pundits are somewhat blinded by the one win vs. Florida. It was a great win. But it was also, in retrospect, an "any given night" kind of game.

Plus (and I know this isn't going to be popular) a win @ Cameron this year really isn't that impressive. In fact Clemson wasn't far off from pulling out that trick themselves. While I'm on record (and stand by my comments) that Clemson really didn't deserve to win the game - given the end-controversy - the simple fact si that Duke wasn't that tough an out at Cameron this year. That win isn't quite as impressive for FSU as it might have been in any other season. I think RPI, Pomeroy and other objective tools bear this out regarding the strength of Clemson's perfromance relative to FSU's.