A Measure of Class (A Touch of Fun)

[bedeviled]

A measure of class.
During one of our December games, I heard a UNC supporter say, “See, that’s why everyone hates Duke. [They’re killing this team and] still taking 3-pointers. No class.”
Well, I’ve actually been tracking such things after a UNC grad (now NCSU grad student) friend of mine had a change of heart after watching UNC do the following earlier this year:


46-pt win over MSST - took 3pter w/ 7 seconds left (24 on the shot clock)...missed and took a FGA w/ 3 seconds left

42-pt win over DivII Chaminade - 5 out of last 6 shots were 3-pters w/ avg of 20 secs left on shot-clock

18-pt win over UAB – got fouled driving to the basket w/ 2 secs left (25 on the shot-clock)

Of course, there is no real way to measure class, but it is fun to think about how you would do it. I looked at the play-by-play for the final 2 minutes of games won by over 15 points. Here’s what I found (you can skip to the nice picture graphs if you want) (data through 1/2/13):


2-Minute Drill


Team
Duke
NCSU
UNC


Games
8
8
7


Margin of Victory
24.875
21
29.14286


Scoring differential/game
0.125
0.875
-0.57143


FGA/game
2.125
3.875
5.142857


Put-backs/game
0
0.5
0.714286


Avg time off clock (no putbacks)
24.52941
12.81481
13.54839


3FGA/FGA
23.52941
48.3871
38.88889


Fouls/game
0.625
1.125
1.571429


Tempo
67.6875
91.5
90.85714



Each of the 3 teams plays the opponent essentially evenly over the final two minutes, but the type of play definitely varies across teams.
FGA: UNC takes more than double the number of shots Duke does in the final 2 minutes of a blow-out game!!
Put-backs: “Well, sure, we shot more” they may say, “we’re getting offensive boards. All those shots are put-backs.” Um, should they be?!? Should UNC really be crashing the boards at that time? Plus, if the ball happens to fall into UNC’s hands, do they really have to shoot it?
Time off clock: I tried to do a favor to UNC here and NOT count the put-backs in the time used off the clock for each shot they took. It didn’t help their cause, they still shoot more frequently. Note the trend here that NCSU can’t really talk smack at Duke either.
3P/FGA: Okay, so let’s take a look at the stat that the above UNC fan complained about – tendency to take 3-pointers during blow-out time. Well, well, well, we see that <25% of Duke’s shots are 3-pointers, far below both NCSU and UNC, despite Duke holding the ball until deeper into the shot clock.
Fouls: Our state schools aren’t just beating up the little kids on the offensive end, they are also fouling more than Duke during the last 2 minutes of blow-out games.
Tempo: Meh. I think the point has been made.

Here are the graphs, with some other teams included...
30883089309030913092

[bedeviled]

Ha! I guess my point really was made: I couldn't attach a Tempo graph. Here it is...
3093

[Newton_14]

A measure of class.
During one of our December games, I heard a UNC supporter say, “See, that’s why everyone hates Duke. [They’re killing this team and] still taking 3-pointers. No class.”
Well, I’ve actually been tracking such things after a UNC grad (now NCSU grad student) friend of mine had a change of heart after watching UNC do the following earlier this year:


46-pt win over MSST - took 3pter w/ 7 seconds left (24 on the shot clock)...missed and took a FGA w/ 3 seconds left

42-pt win over DivII Chaminade - 5 out of last 6 shots were 3-pters w/ avg of 20 secs left on shot-clock

18-pt win over UAB – got fouled driving to the basket w/ 2 secs left (25 on the shot-clock)

Of course, there is no real way to measure class, but it is fun to think about how you would do it. I looked at the play-by-play for the final 2 minutes of games won by over 15 points. Here’s what I found (you can skip to the nice picture graphs if you want) (data through 1/2/13):


2-Minute Drill



Team

Duke

NCSU

UNC



Games

8

8

7



Margin of Victory

24.875

21

29.14286



Scoring differential/game

0.125

0.875

-0.57143



FGA/game

2.125

3.875

5.142857



Put-backs/game


0.5

0.714286



Avg time off clock (no putbacks)

24.52941

12.81481

13.54839



3FGA/FGA

23.52941

48.3871

38.88889



Fouls/game

0.625

1.125

1.571429



Tempo

67.6875

91.5

90.85714




Each of the 3 teams plays the opponent essentially evenly over the final two minutes, but the type of play definitely varies across teams.
FGA: UNC takes more than double the number of shots Duke does in the final 2 minutes of a blow-out game!!
Put-backs: “Well, sure, we shot more” they may say, “we’re getting offensive boards. All those shots are put-backs.” Um, should they be?!? Should UNC really be crashing the boards at that time? Plus, if the ball happens to fall into UNC’s hands, do they really have to shoot it?
Time off clock: I tried to do a favor to UNC here and NOT count the put-backs in the time used off the clock for each shot they took. It didn’t help their cause, they still shoot more frequently. Note the trend here that NCSU can’t really talk smack at Duke either.
3P/FGA: Okay, so let’s take a look at the stat that the above UNC fan complained about – tendency to take 3-pointers during blow-out time. Well, well, well, we see that <25% of Duke’s shots are 3-pointers, far below both NCSU and UNC, despite Duke holding the ball until deeper into the shot clock.
Fouls: Our state schools aren’t just beating up the little kids on the offensive end, they are also fouling more than Duke during the last 2 minutes of blow-out games.
Tempo: Meh. I think the point has been made.

Here are the graphs, with some other teams included...
30883089309030913092

Good points and post. Thanks. Every time a UNC fan approaches this subject I remind them that this is the exact reason Hanswalk got his nose broken. UNC always plays for Sportscenter Highlight reels, and stats padding in the final couple minutes of blowout games vs pulling it out and running clock. This can and sometimes does lead to hard feelings with the opponent.

Not to make Duke sound "holier than thou" but over the years, much more often than not, K instructs the guys to pull it out and run clock, then shoot with under 10 on the shot clock. On offensive rebounds they kick it out and start the process over.

[Tom B.]

That's about a dozen different kinds of awesome.

One question, though -- what exactly is "Tempo" a measure of? I get that the bigger numbers for UNC and State signify that they're playing faster and shooting more in the last two minutes of blowouts, but what exactly goes into those numbers?

[bedeviled]

what exactly is "Tempo" a measure of?Tempo is possessions per game. To calculate Tempo for a game (also known as 'game pace'), you would actually average the possessions of both teams (they should be about the same, but the formula is an estimation, so averaging gives a better approximation, I guess). A team's Tempo is their average number of possessions per 40 minutes. You are right - the essence of tempo is how fast a team plays (fitting more possessions into an equal time frame).

The number in the data above is a reflection of the possessions the individual team had (Note: I did not bother to calculate both teams and average to get a better approximation). A possession is defined as: FGAs – ORebs + TOs + (0.475 x FTAs). This formula is based on the idea that each possession must end with one of the three - a shot, TO, or free throw. The actual possessions is a little off (FTA depends on bonus status and foul w/ or w/o shot; some possessions end because the game ends), but the errors would hopefully balance out somewhat between games/teams. The possession formula is always an approximation, though, and I used Pomeroy's 0.475 while other statisticians use other coefficients that they find fit their data. Since we are used to looking at number of possessions for a 40-minute stretch, I adjusted the 2-minute segement to a 40-minute segment so the numbers make sense to those who have an idea of typical Tempo.

[Newton_14]

Tempo is possessions per game. To calculate Tempo for a game (also known as 'game pace'), you would actually average the possessions of both teams (they should be about the same, but the formula is an estimation, so averaging gives a better approximation, I guess). A team's Tempo is their average number of possessions per 40 minutes. You are right - the essence of tempo is how fast a team plays (fitting more possessions into an equal time frame).

The number in the data above is a reflection of the possessions the individual team had (Note: I did not bother to calculate both teams and average to get a better approximation). A possession is defined as: FGAs – ORebs + TOs + (0.475 x FTAs). This formula is based on the idea that each possession must end with one of the three - a shot, TO, or free throw. The actual possessions is a little off (FTA depends on bonus status and foul w/ or w/o shot; some possessions end because the game ends), but the errors would hopefully balance out somewhat between games/teams. The possession formula is always an approximation, though, and I used Pomeroy's 0.475 while other statisticians use other coefficients that they find fit their data. Since we are used to looking at number of possessions for a 40-minute stretch, I adjusted the 2-minute segement to a 40-minute segment so the numbers make sense to those who have an idea of typical Tempo.

So, a stupid question for you. If a team takes a shot, misses, gets the rebound, misses the putback, rebounds again, misses again, rebounds again, and then scores on the 4th attempt, is that calculated as 4 possessions or some other number?

[bedeviled]

...is that calculated as 4 possessions or some other number?Answer: some other number. That number is '1.' That's where the OReb variable comes into play in the formula. For your example: 4 shots - 3 rebounds = 1 possession. It might seem weird at first, but it is useful for tempo-free statistics. For instance, in offensive efficiency (points per possession), an offense's ability to get it's own rebounds is incorporated into calculating its offensive prowess. And, it also makes some logical sense - If the other team hasn't gotten the ball yet, there isn't really a change of possession, is there? Of course, at home, in stat-free enjoyment, you can define possession however you want to ("We've given them 8 possessions in a row!! :mad: ")

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I forget who grabbed the offensive rebound at the end of the Davidson game but I distinctly recall him having an easy path to the basket for a layup or dunk but instead weaving through a couple Davidson players to pull the ball back out and kill the final seconds. All class.

[Highlander]

I forget who grabbed the offensive rebound at the end of the Davidson game but I distinctly recall him having an easy path to the basket for a layup or dunk but instead weaving through a couple Davidson players to pull the ball back out and kill the final seconds. All class.

I think it was Cook. Also, Murphy had the ball with 35 seconds left on the shot clock and 35.3 left in the game. He chose to dribble it out and not attempt a shot. The refs could have called a shot clock violation and given Davidson the ball with 0.3s left, but I guess they figured since they screwed Duke out of 0.3s possession in the first half, then they'd do the same to Davidson in the second.

I know it has been posted here before to the contrary, but I cannot for the life of me remember a time when Duke attempted a field goal when up by a sizeable margin at the end of the game and the shot clock off. I'm sure there has been the occasional steal/breakaway layup in a close game, but it is rare to see Duke try to rub it in by scoring meaningless buckets. I can't recall any examples off the top of my head.

[peterjswift]

I think it was Cook. Also, Murphy had the ball with 35 seconds left on the shot clock and 35.3 left in the game. He chose to dribble it out and not attempt a shot. The refs could have called a shot clock violation and given Davidson the ball with 0.3s left, but I guess they figured since they screwed Duke out of 0.3s possession in the first half, then they'd do the same to Davidson in the second.

I know it has been posted here before to the contrary, but I cannot for the life of me remember a time when Duke attempted a field goal when up by a sizeable margin at the end of the game and the shot clock off. I'm sure there has been the occasional steal/breakaway layup in a close game, but it is rare to see Duke try to rub it in by scoring meaningless buckets. I can't recall any examples off the top of my head.

I do vaguely recall a player last season lofting a three near the buzzer during a game when Duke was up by a lot, and when he hit it, he shamefully shook his head as soon as he realized what he had done. It was instant recognition that he had made a mistake...which kind of made up for the "low class" shot. This is purely anecdotal though, so don't consider this a legitimate contribution to the conversation...

[killerleft]

Any Tar Heel fan who knowlngly uses the word "class" in any conversation should have his or her head examined. Cuz, as we all know, "class" is something Tar Heel sportsters avoid, uh, studiously.

[Bob Green]

A measure of class.

46-pt win over MSST - took 3pter w/ 7 seconds left (24 on the shot clock)...missed and took a FGA w/ 3 seconds left


18-pt win over UAB – got fouled driving to the basket w/ 2 secs left (25 on the shot-clock)



I'm confused :confused: which happens often. In the two examples above, how do you definitively know there were 24 and 25 seconds left on the shot-clock when there are only 7 and 2 seconds left on the game clock. Unless I am missing something, the shot-clock would have already been turned off in those scenarios. Would it not suffice to say, Carolina didn't run out the clock when they could have?

[Lar77]

Interesting analysis. I can only recall a few times when the game was out of doubt that we have pushed and even fewer where we made an offensive attempt once the shot clock is off. Those instances could be characterized mostly as a player recently put in game (I also have a hazy recollection that someone made a "statement" play after the opposing player made a shot and trash talked). As a team, when the game is basically over, we call off the dogs - probably hurts us in Pomeroyland. On the other hand, Carolina (and some others) tends to push right to the end. We have a coach who respects the other team and always seems to take time to say something to the opposing coach and to some players. That has to carry over to our team.

[snowdenscold]

I'm confused :confused: which happens often. In the two examples above, how do you definitively know there were 24 and 25 seconds left on the shot-clock when there are only 7 and 2 seconds left on the game clock. Unless I am missing something, the shot-clock would have already been turned off in those scenarios. Would it not suffice to say, Carolina didn't run out the clock when they could have?

I had the same confusion, Bob.

[bedeviled]

I'm confused :confused: ...how do you definitively know there were 24 and 25 seconds left on the shot-clock when there are only 7 and 2 seconds left on the game clock. Unless I am missing something, the shot-clock would have already been turned off...

I had the same confusion, Bob.
Well, darn! You aren't the only two - I've flummoxed myself. <embarrassed> That didn't even cross my mind when I wrote the post, I was just going off of notes I had written early in the season. I honestly don't recall how I came to write it that way...but it happened while I watched the game...TWICE! Yikes. My guess is that I noted how much time of possession they utilized and wrote the complementary data without thinking. So, yes, it would have sufficed to say, "Carolina didn't run out the clock when they could have." However, that doesn't capture how long they possessed the ball until the shot which is part of what amazed me at the time. Clearly, I should have written the info without flipping it; please accept my apologies for our confusion.

[Highlander]

Interesting analysis. I can only recall a few times when the game was out of doubt that we have pushed and even fewer where we made an offensive attempt once the shot clock is off. Those instances could be characterized mostly as a player recently put in game (I also have a hazy recollection that someone made a "statement" play after the opposing player made a shot and trash talked). As a team, when the game is basically over, we call off the dogs - probably hurts us in Pomeroyland. On the other hand, Carolina (and some others) tends to push right to the end. We have a coach who respects the other team and always seems to take time to say something to the opposing coach and to some players. That has to carry over to our team.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=323180096

I think the KY game may be the game you were thinking of. Looking at the box score, Duke gets a dunk with 9 seconds to go in a 3 possession game to go up 9. Seems like we're rubbing it in. But when you look at the replay, you see that KY was trying to intentionally foul Duke, and Kelly got a breakaway on the pass out. No one from KY was close enough to even make a play.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCuePLvVEWw (go to 1:40 or so).

Now, Kelly could have pulled it back out and tried to run clock, but it was obvious KY was trying to foul in that situation so he took the easy 2 instead to ice the game. Statement dunk? Yeah, probably. Classless? Not even close IMO.

So, I don't think we should say that Duke NEVER shoots when the game is decided, but I do think it's fair to say that it is rarely happens.

[sagegrouse]

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=323180096

I think the KY game may be the game you were thinking of. Looking at the box score, Duke gets a dunk with 9 seconds to go in a 3 possession game to go up 9. Seems like we're rubbing it in. But when you look at the replay, you see that KY was trying to intentionally foul Duke, and Kelly got a breakaway on the pass out. No one from KY was close enough to even make a play.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCuePLvVEWw (go to 1:40 or so).

Now, Kelly could have pulled it back out and tried to run clock, but it was obvious KY was trying to foul in that situation so he took the easy 2 instead to ice the game. Statement dunk? Yeah, probably. Classless? Not even close IMO.

So, I don't think we should say that Duke NEVER shoots when the game is decided, but I do think it's fair to say that it is rarely happens.

I think the point is, Duke will hold the ball at the end, unless the other team gets very aggressive. In that case, all bets are off and it is appropriate to go to the basket and score. It's sometimes better to score and give the other team the ball than to have someone knocked down and hurt.

sagegrouse

[Edouble]

I know it has been posted here before to the contrary, but I cannot for the life of me remember a time when Duke attempted a field goal when up by a sizeable margin at the end of the game and the shot clock off. I'm sure there has been the occasional steal/breakaway layup in a close game, but it is rare to see Duke try to rub it in by scoring meaningless buckets. I can't recall any examples off the top of my head.

Jason Williams at the end of the BC game his junior year? I think so... He and Troy Bell had gotten into it. Bell had pushed him onto the scorer's table. I think Jdub chucked one up at the end of the game. Maybe during one of those chippy Paul Hewitt games in the early 2000s? Yeah, it is rare though.

[BigWayne]

I don't know if it's captured in your stats or not, but a significant variable effect in these situations is whether the bench has been cleared.
If you have guys in from both teams that usually never play, it is unreasonable to expect them to put the game into slowdown mode.
Best latest example on Duke's part is when Zafirovksi has come in and they are actively working to get him opportunities to score.

[COYS]

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=323180096

I think the KY game may be the game you were thinking of. Looking at the box score, Duke gets a dunk with 9 seconds to go in a 3 possession game to go up 9. Seems like we're rubbing it in. But when you look at the replay, you see that KY was trying to intentionally foul Duke, and Kelly got a breakaway on the pass out. No one from KY was close enough to even make a play.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCuePLvVEWw (go to 1:40 or so).

Now, Kelly could have pulled it back out and tried to run clock, but it was obvious KY was trying to foul in that situation so he took the easy 2 instead to ice the game. Statement dunk? Yeah, probably. Classless? Not even close IMO.

So, I don't think we should say that Duke NEVER shoots when the game is decided, but I do think it's fair to say that it is rarely happens.

In this instance with Kelly, i feel that it would have been far worse to give up a completely open break away dunk in than to go ahead and throw it down. Not scoring there would really come across as taunting. It'd be like a running back intentionally going out of bounds at the one yard line after a break-away run with his team up big. Getting two points on a breakaway was unnecessary with regard to the outcome of the game, but was the natural result of UK continuing to press. Dribbling the ball back out when no UK players were within 45 feet would have been the more unsportsmanlike thing to do, in my opinion.

That being said, I really don't think the shot attempt totals in the final possessions of blowouts is really all that meaningful. If the subs are in, they should be able to play as hard as they can/want. It is a nice gesture for a team to hold the ball during the final offensive possession when there is less time on the game clock than the shot clock (assuming a situation like the Kelly breakaway doesn't occur). Duke usually adheres to this rule, as do most other teams. However, until that moment comes, I feel like everything else is fair game.