MBB: Duke vs. Davidson Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Bob Green]

Duke travels to Charlotte to face Davidson tomorrow at 7 pm with coverage on ESPN2. Discuss the match-up here.

[OldPhiKap]

Jay Bilas tweeted that he has been watching Davidson film (he must have the game) and said they are better than their record. K also mentioned at the end of his last press conference that Davidson was good and that "Bobby" was as good a coach as there is out there. And years of observations has made me a believer.

Will not be an easy game, maybe more difficult than Wake later in the week.

[matt1]

The chance of beating Davidson according to different simulations:

RealTimeRPI: 79.2%
Similar Games Model: 98.8% (Team Rankings)
Decision Tree Model: 85.4% (Team Rankings)
Power Rankings Model: 97.0% (Team Rankings)
Team Rankings: 87.4% (official projection)
AccuScore: 80.9%

CBSSports (projected score): Duke 80, Davidson 70
ESPN Streak for the Cash: 95% predict Duke to win by at least 15 points
Line: Duke -12 to -13 (depending on where you look)

I do not know how to find Pomeroy's projections (though I do see that he gives us a ~88% chance of winning the ACC regular season).

[CDu]

Will not be an easy game, maybe more difficult than Wake later in the week.

Davidson is #80 in the Pomeroy rankings and #94 in RPI. Wake is #177 in the Pomeroy and #204 in RPI. This game should absolutely be more difficult than the Wake game.

[Ggallagher]

Davidson is #80 in the Pomeroy rankings and #94 in RPI. Wake is #177 in the Pomeroy and #204 in RPI. This game should absolutely be more difficult than the Wake game.

KenPom has the Davidson game as 92% likely that we win. The Wake game is rated at 98% in KenPom.

The margin of victory is predicted as 17 points over Davidson, and it's predicted as 29 points over Davidson. So whille the percentages may not seem all that different, the Wake game looks a lot more like one that we dominate in - for whatever that's worth.

[CDu]

KenPom has the Davidson game as 92% likely that we win. The Wake game is rated at 98% in KenPom.

The margin of victory is predicted as 17 points over Davidson, and it's predicted as 29 points over Davidson. So whille the percentages may not seem all that different, the Wake game looks a lot more like one that we dominate in - for whatever that's worth.

Yeah, people should definitely take this stuff into consideration. Teams like Santa Clara and Davidson may sound like pushovers based on historical reference, but they are both better than a number of ACC teams this year.

[OldPhiKap]

Yeah, people should definitely take this stuff into consideration. Teams like Santa Clara and Davidson may sound like pushovers based on historical reference, but they are both better than a number of ACC teams this year.

Santa Clara would be very competitive in any major league this year.

Davidson is always a talented and disciplined team, and agree that they would hold their own in the ACC this year.

[Billy Dat]

My memory of last year's game was foggy so I went back and looked at last year's post-game thread and it was a raging debate about whether or not Quinn would be our starting PG by the end of the year. At least that debate has been settled.

Davidson has all their starters back, and last year basically led the whole first half and still led a few minutes into the second when we went on a run and blew the game open. Last year, we showed some rare inside outside balance as both Miles and Mason as well as Curry and Rivers had solid games. With our improved defense and much more consistent inside outside game, I hope we can establish Mason early and often and get their primary big, 6-10" Jake Cohen, into foul trouble. De'Mon Brooks is their leading scorer and is a 6'7" wing. Logic dictates Ryan Kelly will be asked to slow him down as the rest of their guards seem to go 6'3"-6'4".

Seth Curry will have a lot of family and friends in the crowd. As a senior star, let's hope that reality results in a rich outcome and not a distracted, trying-to-do-too-much first half mess. The newly minted captain has given us no reason to expect anything other then cool, calm and collected production. You can't hurry Seth.

With our starters so well established, it will be interesting to see how the bench minutes are distributed. With league play around the corner, is the cement setting around Hairston and Thornton with Amile, Marshall and Alex on the outside looking in?

[COYS]

With our starters so well established, it will be interesting to see how the bench minutes are distributed. With league play around the corner, is the cement setting around Hairston and Thornton with Amile, Marshall and Alex on the outside looking in?

If I might dive into this a little bit, I think that Marshall and Amile's minutes will almost exclusively be determined by how much Mason (primarily) and Ryan (secondarily) can play. So far, Mason has been excellent at avoiding foul trouble while Ryan has had a little bit more trouble on this end. Josh is the primary backup to either of those guys and has generally played alongside Mason and (less often) Ryan when one of our two senior bigs is off the court. However, in the event that Ryan and Mason are in foul trouble in the same game OR that Josh is DQed with 5 fouls, we could see a bit more of Amile and Marshall.

Similarly, I think Alex and possibly Amile could also see time at the three if both Rasheed and Tyler are in foul trouble or, in the event that Seth has to take a game off, if one of those two are in foul trouble.

As has been stated before, though, it will be interesting to see whether conference play really does bring the same tightening of the rotation that we've seen in the past or if that tightening has already happened thanks to our difficult early schedule. Davidson and Santa Clara would probably be mid tier ACC teams. UK, VCU, and Minnesota would challenge Duke and probably be in a fight for second in the ACC. Obviously, Louisville and Ohio State would arguably be picked as 1b and 1c to Duke in the ACC. Meanwhile, Boston College and Wake Forest appear to be more comparable to some of our weaker non-conference opponents than to Davidson or VCU. Meanwhile, other ACC teams like Clemson and Virginia Tech, will probably be somewhere between Davidson and VCU in relative strength. This isn't to say the ACC schedule will be easy, but I wonder if the substitution patterns will really be all that different from what we've already seen.

If Duke is playing well, it seems Coach K has tried to get Amile and Marshall a minute or two in the first half along with the obvious substitutions of Tyler and Josh. If Duke breaks the game open, then Alex has gotten court time in the second half. With many of our conference opponents being comparable in strength to our non conference opponents, I would expect to see this trend hold. Barring foul trouble, Josh and Tyler will play the bulk of the minutes off the bench with Marshall and Amile making cameos in the first half if the game is generally going well for Duke. The second half will all be about how close the game is, as Amile, Marshall, and Alex will likely only see the court if K is either extremely unhappy with the starters or Duke has put the game away.

[timmy c]

Interested to see how Kelly and Mason match up against Davidson’s bigs – Brooks and Cohen. Although they don’t have the size of Kelly or Mason they do force opponents to defend away from the basket by shooting the three. Brooks (6’7”) is 8/20 for the year. Cohen (6’10”) is 10/30.

[tommy]

Davidson is a better team than their record indicates. They have one head-scratching loss to Milwaukee, and then a number of others that seem like they should've been able to win. Keep in mind, this is a team that beat Kansas, at Kansas, just last year, and the whole team is back. They led Duke at halftime of our game last year as well. And they also played Louisville (an eventual Final Four team) very tough in the first round of the NCAA's.

For a full preview, go here (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/01/preview-duke-vs-davidson/).

[tbyers11]

Davidson is a better team than their record indicates. They have one head-scratching loss to Milwaukee, and then a number of others that seem like they should've been able to win. Keep in mind, this is a team that beat Kansas, at Kansas, just last year, and the whole team is back. They led Duke at halftime of our game last year as well. And they also played Louisville (an eventual Final Four team) very tough in the first round of the NCAA's.

For a full preview, go here (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/01/preview-duke-vs-davidson/).

One minor quibble, Davidson beat Kansas in Kansas City (at the Sprint Center or whatever it is named now) not at Allen Fieldhouse last year. Agree that Davidson should not be taken lightly because of a 7-5 record as their losses (except the Milwaukee one) were against good teams an mostly on the road.

[CDu]

If I might dive into this a little bit, I think that Marshall and Amile's minutes will almost exclusively be determined by how much Mason (primarily) and Ryan (secondarily) can play. So far, Mason has been excellent at avoiding foul trouble while Ryan has had a little bit more trouble on this end. Josh is the primary backup to either of those guys and has generally played alongside Mason and (less often) Ryan when one of our two senior bigs is off the court. However, in the event that Ryan and Mason are in foul trouble in the same game OR that Josh is DQed with 5 fouls, we could see a bit more of Amile and Marshall.

Similarly, I think Alex and possibly Amile could also see time at the three if both Rasheed and Tyler are in foul trouble or, in the event that Seth has to take a game off, if one of those two are in foul trouble.

As has been stated before, though, it will be interesting to see whether conference play really does bring the same tightening of the rotation that we've seen in the past or if that tightening has already happened thanks to our difficult early schedule. Davidson and Santa Clara would probably be mid tier ACC teams. UK, VCU, and Minnesota would challenge Duke and probably be in a fight for second in the ACC. Obviously, Louisville and Ohio State would arguably be picked as 1b and 1c to Duke in the ACC. Meanwhile, Boston College and Wake Forest appear to be more comparable to some of our weaker non-conference opponents than to Davidson or VCU. Meanwhile, other ACC teams like Clemson and Virginia Tech, will probably be somewhere between Davidson and VCU in relative strength. This isn't to say the ACC schedule will be easy, but I wonder if the substitution patterns will really be all that different from what we've already seen.

If Duke is playing well, it seems Coach K has tried to get Amile and Marshall a minute or two in the first half along with the obvious substitutions of Tyler and Josh. If Duke breaks the game open, then Alex has gotten court time in the second half. With many of our conference opponents being comparable in strength to our non conference opponents, I would expect to see this trend hold. Barring foul trouble, Josh and Tyler will play the bulk of the minutes off the bench with Marshall and Amile making cameos in the first half if the game is generally going well for Duke. The second half will all be about how close the game is, as Amile, Marshall, and Alex will likely only see the court if K is either extremely unhappy with the starters or Duke has put the game away.

I don't think we'll see the rotation shorten much more than it already has. Conversely, I don't see it getting any deeper either. As you mention, we've already played a number of tough games in which Coach K has gone with his 6-7 man rotation. I don't see us going with less than a 6-7 man rotation, but at the same time I don't see the rotation extending to the point that 8 guys get meaningful minutes.

As such, unless extraordinary foul trouble occurs (or injuries happen), I suspect that Marshall will be battling with Hairston for the backup C minutes (no more than 5-7 mpg) and Jefferson will be battling Hairston for the backup PF minutes (no more than 5-7 mpg). Murphy and Jefferson will be battling Thornton for the backup SF minutes (no more than 8-12 mpg). Thornton will get the remaining backup guard minutes.

I think it's going to take a MAJOR step up for any of the three reserve freshmen to crack the main rotation, as it appears that Coach K is quite content to ride his starters as long as they can go, and he's quite content with Thornton and Hairston filling in as role players when needed.

[Saratoga2]

On offense

Despite losing Rivers I think this year's team is improved for the following reasons
1. Mason playing with more confidence and hitting a higher percentage of his free throws
2. Quinn taking over as the starting PG as he runs the offense effectively and contributes to the scoring
3. Seth is playing at a very high level when feeling well
4. Ryan has shown more of a mid range game
5. Rasheed has shown he can be a threat and chip in as a substantial scoring option

On Defense

This team is very similar to last years, since we haven't utilized our bigger wing players and may not this year. We are still small at guard and can be abused by teams like Santa Clara, who have excellent guard play
1. Quinn's defense has improved noticeably this year
2. Rasheed has the athleticism to harry opponent guards and minimize penetration
3. Mason is about the same although he is better at rebounding this year
4. Ryan has done well against teams pf/sf types although he is not as mobile as most that he defends
5. Seth still shows the quick hands but also lacks lateral quickness against the best guards
6. Tyler and Josh play defense last year.

Playing a team like Davidson, our offense should be better than last year if Seth is able to play his A game, while I see our defense as similarly vulnerable as last year. Probably enough to win but not in a dominant fashion. Too bad we get nothing out of Alex or Amile

[dukelifer]

I expect a tough game- at least for 30 minutes. Not quite a home game but still I expect a good Davidson crowd. Davidson will not make big mistakes- as they are well coached- and they shoot well from the line. They also will not be intimidated. Duke will need to get good balanced scoring (hopefully inside out) and play strong half court D. Kelly and Seth will be key on O and the question of the night is who can hang with their 6' 7" wing who leads them in scoring. Duke is the biggest game of the year for these guys and they will be playing hard all game. Duke will need at least an B+ or A- effort to win tonight.

[mattman91]

On my wat to the arena now...who else is going and where ya sitting? S
ure to be lots of dukies in attendance tonight

[Edouble]

I expect a tough game- at least for 30 minutes. Not quite a home game but still I expect a good Davidson crowd. Davidson will not make big mistakes- as they are well coached- and they shoot well from the line. They also will not be intimidated. Duke will need to get good balanced scoring (hopefully inside out) and play strong half court D. Kelly and Seth will be key on O and the question of the night is who can hang with their 6' 7" wing who leads them in scoring. Duke is the biggest game of the year for these guys and they will be playing hard all game. Duke will need at least an B+ or A- effort to win tonight.

Hmm, I'm expecting a blow out. I'm thinking we'll be up 15 at half. This is a team that has Final Four aspirations and we looked rusty coming off the holiday break. This is Seth's "home town" game and he was just named a captain.

Well, maybe "expect" is too strong of a word, but that's what I would predict. Davidson has earned my respect over the years, but this year I think we will play out of their league tonight.

We'll know soon enough.

[COYS]

On offense

Despite losing Rivers I think this year's team is improved for the following reasons
1. Mason playing with more confidence and hitting a higher percentage of his free throws
2. Quinn taking over as the starting PG as he runs the offense effectively and contributes to the scoring
3. Seth is playing at a very high level when feeling well
4. Ryan has shown more of a mid range game
5. Rasheed has shown he can be a threat and chip in as a substantial scoring option

On Defense

This team is very similar to last years, since we haven't utilized our bigger wing players and may not this year. We are still small at guard and can be abused by teams like Santa Clara, who have excellent guard play
1. Quinn's defense has improved noticeably this year
2. Rasheed has the athleticism to harry opponent guards and minimize penetration
3. Mason is about the same although he is better at rebounding this year
4. Ryan has done well against teams pf/sf types although he is not as mobile as most that he defends
5. Seth still shows the quick hands but also lacks lateral quickness against the best guards
6. Tyler and Josh play defense last year.

Playing a team like Davidson, our offense should be better than last year if Seth is able to play his A game, while I see our defense as similarly vulnerable as last year. Probably enough to win but not in a dominant fashion. Too bad we get nothing out of Alex or Amile

To me, I feel like the biggest difference is actually on the defensive end. I agree with your points about our offense being very good despite losing Rivers. However, I would probably characterize our offense as more balanced than last year, though, rather than "better." Our efficiency numbers are actually quite comparable to last year's (we're a little ahead of last year's team in reaching the number 1 rank at KenPom for offensive efficiency). That being said, there is no doubt that Quinn's ability to distribute the ball and get more people involved combined with Mason's improved play and Seth's JJ-esque scoring probably makes us less susceptible to a bad night from one of our players than last year's team.

However, while the names of our guards and their listed heights are basically the same as last year, we are a very different team on defense (and the stats reflect this). Quinn, Seth, and Tyler are all much improved at staying in front of their man (which you alluded to). There are still lapses, but for the most part they are doing a good job staying with opposing guards and, at the very least, funneling them into the teeth of the defense if/when they are beaten instead of letting them go all the way to the hoop. Our hedging last year was atrocious and that contributed to the poor perimeter defense. Ryan and Mason are both much better in this area, although they are not quite to 2010 Zoubek/Lance standards. Also, to me, the single biggest reason Josh gets more playing time ahead of Amile and Alex is because of Josh's familiarity with our hedge and recover scheme. While Rasheed and Austin are similar in size, Rasheed has longer arms and is able to focus on defense since he is only the third or fourth option on offense whereas Austin had to carry the load on offense. This freedom to put all his energy into defense combined with his better defensive instincts has negated much of the disadvantage last year's team had against big small forwards. I would actually say that UK with Poythress was perhaps our only opponent that clearly "won" the battle at the three spot. The KenPom numbers plus the our opponents FG% reflect that this year's team is much better on defense than last year's.

I don't disagree with your analysis on a point by point basis, but I think that overall the advantage that this year's team has over last year's team against Davidson is the improved defense rather than offense.

[TNDukeFan]

The evil empire won't let me watch on ESPN3 - anyone have an online link?

[CLW]

Another weak effort to start he game out its becoming a CONCERNING trend to snooze through these games early. Simply getting OUTWORKED right now.

[arnie]

Another weak effort to start he game out its becoming a CONCERNING trend to snooze through these games early. Simply getting OUTWORKED right now.

All one-on-one right now. The lack of hustle early was obvious but we should be ok. Focused on Hairston while he was in- I don't understand his minutes.

[Ultrarunner]

The evil empire won't let me watch on ESPN3 - anyone have an online link?

http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/161396/1/watch-1-duke-vs-davidson.html

[zoroaster]

For people not at a TV and without a Goduke premium membership (which is required for their live audio of this game), the Davidson site (linked to from Goduke) has live audio as well as the live stats Goduke mentions.

http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/schedule.aspx?SPSID=22724&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&path=mbball&

edit: or Ultrarunner's link works! ;)

[Les Grossman]

just a little lax in the TO department

[TNDukeFan]

http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/161396/1/watch-1-duke-vs-davidson.html

Thanks, Ultrarunner.

[CLW]

1 assist and 9 turnovers. Mason looks lost when the double comes and it comes EVERY time. Still haven't decided to show up yet and work. Davidson is playing like its their Super Bowl and we are playing like its some throw away pre-season scrimmage.

[Les Grossman]

then doubles down on the mistake by yapping at K
unbelievable

[slower]

Man, it's frustrating to watch these guys stink so often in the first half of these games.

[DU82]

then doubles down on the mistake by yapping at K
unbelievable

That last call was very Karl Hess-like.

[moonpie23]

wouldn't want to be on the team in that locker room......nor the score keeper.....


someone has to get going and hit some shots......davidson is bringing everything they've got.......we are not...

[mapei]

We're being badly outhustled, especially inside. Davidson's offensive boards and blocks are beating us time after time. Seth seems a little spooked by the moment. Davidson is good, it isn't shameful to look bad against them, and we were bound to lay an egg at some point after such a tremendous start to the season. But it's really ugly to watch.

On the plus side, Davidson seems to be fouling a lot. Maybe that will hurt them in the second half. And K is bound to make some adjustments to fix the rebounding problem. I still think we'll win, cause we've played like crap and still have a tie game.

[CLW]

well we will see if they "wake up" like the past few or they hit the snooze button. IF they choose the latter they could EASILY lose this game as Davidson is playing HARD and didn't particularly shoot the ball all that well as they missed several open 3s in the 1st half.

[Son of Mojo]

Getting outhustled badly. The guys are probably getting a pretty good scathing talk right about now. Let's hope the message gets received and there's a better team that emerges in the 2nd half. As always, blame those ugly black jerseys...........

[dukelifer]

Getting killed on the glass. Really no excuse for that. Duke is not going to win many games with Mason getting 2 points in a half. I expected this to be close but not because Duke would allow so many second shots. You are supposed to be up if you hold a team to 33% shooting. Not a good effort so far.

[hillsborodevil]

Very flat footed. Maybe they are waiting for Austin Rivers. Duke will improve for the 2nd half.

[gwlaw99]

i really wish we could see more ball movement.

[Les Grossman]

is playing well

[Les Grossman]

please!

[CLW]

Davidson is REALLY playing hard/physical still waiting for us to return the favor.

[Luther]

Jay singing dukes praises = duke is for real!

[CLW]

MUCH better intensity on the defensive end. Mason still struggling with that double team. I've noticed Davidson has really used their center almost as a "decoy" forcing mason to guard him at the 3 point line which takes away our best defensive rebounder from the paint.

[FerryFor50]

Not a great game for Mason... The double teams have really flummoxed him.

[slower]

Quinn goes Globetrotter! Awesome!!

[Les Grossman]

for MOTM!!