If Player of the Year would be voted on today would it be Mason?

[porkpa]

I most definitely would think so.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I most definitely would think so.

But it's not, and we've got an entire 3 1/2 months of season to enjoy! And Relish! And root for Duke in! Individual rewards will come as the team has success - to the victors go the spoils! And we're going to be very victorious in 2013! :cool: http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

But yeah, I agree. And come April, I'll still agree!

[Indoor66]

But it's not, and we've got an entire 3 1/2 months of season to enjoy! And Relish! And root for Duke in! Individual rewards will come as the team has success - to the victors go the spoils! And we're going to be very victorious in 2013! :cool: http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

But yeah, I agree. And come April, I'll still agree!

I got my bet down at 6 to 1. Hang another Banner.

[brevity]

Looking at basic statistics, there are other viable candidates, but none that automatically seem more deserving. A sampler:

Mason Plumlee, Duke: 19.3 pts (28th in nation), 11.5 reb (5th)
Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse: 12.4 pts, 4.9 reb, 10.3 ast (1st), 3.4 stl (3rd)
Doug McDermott, Creighton: 23.1 pts (3rd), 6.8 reb
Isaiah Canaan, Murray State: 20.9 pts (11th), 3.7 reb, 3.9 ast
C.J. McCollum, Lehigh: 24.9 pts (2nd), 5.4 reb, 3.1 ast
Jeff Withey, Kansas: 14.1 pts, 8.3 reb, 5.0 blk (2nd)
Erick Green, Virginia Tech: 25.4 pts (1st), 4.8 reb. 4.5 ast
Anthony Bennett, UNLV: 19.5 pts (27th), 8.5 reb
Trey Burke, Michigan: 17.4 pts, 3.2 reb, 7.1 ast (11th)

Ozzie is right about waiting this out, by the way. Stats will completely change once we hit the conference schedule. And the dominance by players from mid-major teams is yet another reason some people (say, those who require Kobe and LeBron to be shoved down their throats in order to appreciate the NBA) might consider this a down year.

[Kedsy]

Ozzie is right about waiting this out, by the way. Stats will completely change once we hit the conference schedule. And the dominance by players from mid-major teams is yet another reason some people (say, those who require Kobe and LeBron to be shoved down their throats in order to appreciate the NBA) might consider this a down year.

I haven't done extensive research on this, but I'd bet if all you're looking at are counting stats, the mid-majors and low majors dominate every year.

Here's a link to last year's national leaders. (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats?games=1&conf=&season=2011-2012&min=)

[brevity]

I haven't done extensive research on this, but I'd bet if all you're looking at the major stats, the mid-majors dominate every year.

Here's a link to last year's national leaders in things like ppg, rpg, etc. (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats?games=1&conf=&season=2011-2012&min=)

Yes, I should have separated those points. I meant that (1) stats will change as the conference season starts, and (2) this might be perceived as a down year by some because players from mid-major teams will dominate player-of-the-year discussions, with as many as 3 becoming first team All-Americans.

Not sure why I left Cody Zeller off the list. Intentional?

[sagegrouse]

If the vote is today, it would probably be Mason, although a lotta votes for Cody Zeller, the preseason favorite.

At the end of the season, who knows? In Mason's favor is that two of the contenders, McDermott and McCollum, are from Creighton and Lehigh and unlikely to have as broad a base of support. I also expect that Trey Burke of Michigan will figure in the voting at the end.

Erick Green has received a lot of attention because of his scoring, but I think it is a case of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs: who else is gonna score for VT? Actually, Six Dwarfs, in that VT has only seven scholarship players.

Of course, I am truly heartbroken that James Michael McAdoo is not figuring in the conversation for NPOY. :rolleyes:

sagegrouse

[DukieInBrasil]

One of the things to keep in consideration as well is that Mason has compiled those stats vs. the best schedule in the country. We've beaten 5 teams currently in the top 25 (per espn's power rankings), as well as Temple, who just beat #3 'Cuse. Nobody else among the list of players cited for POY consideration so far has played against the quality of competition that Mason has, and as such, Mason would probably have the most likelihood of continuing to put up those sorts of numbers. Also, Mason is playing on an undefeated team and the #1 ranked team, which has to lend even more weight to his candidacy.
So far, in my book, MP II is POY.

[lotusland]

I most definitely would think so.

As long as we are throwing out hypotheticals I wonder if any combination of accomplishments this year get Mason's jersey in the rafters? POY + a Final Four or National Championship?

[sagegrouse]

As long as we are throwing out hypotheticals I wonder if any combination of accomplishments this year get Mason's jersey in the rafters? POY + a Final Four or National Championship?

NPOY is almost a certainty to do it. Otherwise, not.

sage

[Acymetric]

NPOY is almost a certainty to do it. Otherwise, not.

sage

Has there been a Duke player to win NPOY that didn't get his jersey retired?

[Kedsy]

Has there been a Duke player to win NPOY that didn't get his jersey retired?

Didn't Nolan get awarded player of the year by some outlets?

[sagegrouse]

Has there been a Duke player to win NPOY that didn't get his jersey retired?

Yes. Elton Brand. No degree, no jersey in the rafters.

Here's the list of those who received at least one NPOY honor:

Groat
Heyman
Dawkins
Ferry
Laettner
Brand
Battier
JWill
Redick

No, Nolan did not receive the honor, although when it appeared he might, K started talking up Singler's credentials, signalling that if Nolan's jersey was retired, Kyle's would be too.

Retired jerseys who were not NPOY are --

Mullins
Gminski
Hurley
Grant Hill
Shelden Wms.

I probably overlooked someone.

The basic test is to be at least consensus 2nd team A-A in two separate years. The player who meets that standard and whose jersey is not retired is Bob Verga, who played from 1964-1967.

sagegrouse

[ice-9]

Shelden Wms.

Shelden Williams did win defensive national player of the year, which I think in Coach K's eyes is an acceptable alternative to the NPOY criterion.

[tommy]

If the voting were held right now I think it would be between Mason and Anthony Bennett of UNLV. The kid is just a beast, that's all.

I think there would be a lot of voters who would choose Bennett in the same way voters chose RGIII for the Heisman over Andrew Luck last year. Not that RGIII wasn't deserving, but I felt like it was kind of an anti-Luck vote too. Luck was just too perfect. The anointed one, well-to-do family, playing at the "elite" school, who everyone expected would win it coming into the year. He had an excellent year, and deserved to win it too, but I believe many voters went for RGIII as the "against the grain" pick. And if he continues to play this well, many might vote for Bennett in the same way. Voters will be looking for an "anybody but the Duke guy" candidate.

[throatybeard]

As long as we are throwing out hypotheticals I wonder if any combination of accomplishments this year get Mason's jersey in the rafters? POY + a Final Four or National Championship?

It begins.

[uh_no]

As long as we are throwing out hypotheticals I wonder if any combination of accomplishments this year get Mason's jersey in the rafters? POY + a Final Four or National Championship?

well first, he already has a Natty...given, he only played three minutes...BUT HE GOT A REBOUND! without that board, who knows?? maybe we lose!

anyway, that's one more national championship than JJ had (JJ obviously being a much larger contributor for most of his career)

that said, nattys are a team accomplishment, and are honored with their own banner...If mason wins NPOY, I would expect his jersey to be retired regardless of whether we win the national championship or not.



Either way, lets not get ahead of ourselves...lets see how the majority of the season goes and enjoy the ride rather than considering players' legacies...there's plenty of offseason to bicker about jersey retirement

[noworries]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't see Mason getting his jersey retired no matter what happens this year. I get the sense that his first three years of little to moderate contributions might weigh heavier than one NPOY year. I guess just echoing what others have said regarding two great years are needed. I was kinda surprised Singler's jersey isn't up there.

[Kedsy]

No, Nolan did not receive the honor...

Well, that's not entirely true. I know he didn't get any of the major NPOY awards, but both Yahoo and Fox Sports named Nolan their NPOY (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=205111371).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I most definitely would think so.

Yes, and if the NCAA voted for champions in basketball like they do for football, Duke would have won in 1999 and lost in 2010.

In other words, it just doesn't matter.

I'm really glad to see him playing at such a high level this year, and it's gratifying to see him getting his proper credit for it. But, there's a LONG road between now and any accolades for NPOY (or national championship, or jersey retirement, etc. etc...).

Let's enjoy the ride.

/Go Duke!

[OldPhiKap]

Shelden Williams did win defensive national player of the year, which I think in Coach K's eyes is an acceptable alternative to the NPOY criterion.

That would put Tommy Amaker and Billy King in the discussion as well. But not going to happen.

[Kedsy]

That would put Tommy Amaker and Billy King in the discussion as well. But not going to happen.

Wasn't Wojo a NDPOY as well?

[OldPhiKap]

Wasn't Wojo a NDPOY as well?

Good catch, I believe this is correct.

[oldnavy]

I think Mason is NPOY material for certain. IF he keeps his 19+/11+ average up, he will become the third person in ACC history to do that. Saw this during one of the games, and found it jaw dropping. Only Tim Duncan and Ralph Sampson have done that before.

I hope he does keep it up, not only for Duke's success, but as a reward to him for coming back. I really like him. I had a chance to chat with him in Hawaii last year and he is a really nice kid.

[pamtar]

I think Mason is NPOY material for certain. IF he keeps his 19+/11+ average up, he will become the third person in ACC history to do that. Saw this during one of the games, and found it jaw dropping. Only Tim Duncan and Ralph Sampson have done that before.

I saw that too. What's even more jaw dropping is the fact that Timmy D is still doing it 15 years later. BTW, I really miss the days when Wake was good...

[Kedsy]

I think Mason is NPOY material for certain. IF he keeps his 19+/11+ average up, he will become the third person in ACC history to do that. Saw this during one of the games, and found it jaw dropping. Only Tim Duncan and Ralph Sampson have done that before.

I saw this on TV as well, but it clearly is untrue. I know Art Heyman did it, for example, in 1961-62 (25+ ppg and 11.2 rpg; and he came with a few tenths of a percentage point of doing it three times in his three years at Duke -- with 25 ppg and 10.8 and 10.9 rpg; Mike Gminski also had 21+ points and 10.9 rpg in 1979-80). Randy Denton had 20+ ppg and 12+ rpg in both 1969-70 and 1970-71. Mike Lewis had 21.7 ppg and 14.4 rpg in 1967-68. And that's just Duke. I'm sure plenty of other ACC players did it in the '50s, '60s, and '70s.

It's possible there have only been two guys to do 19+ and 11+ since K has been at Duke, but it's certainly not true for "ACC history."

[oldnavy]

I saw this on TV as well, but it clearly is untrue. I know Art Heyman did it, for example, in 1961-62 (25+ ppg and 11.2 rpg; and he came with a few tenths of a percentage point of doing it three times in his three years at Duke -- with 25 ppg and 10.8 and 10.9 rpg; Mike Gminski also had 21+ points and 10.9 rpg in 1979-80). Randy Denton had 20+ ppg and 12+ rpg in both 1969-70 and 1970-71. Mike Lewis had 21.7 ppg and 14.4 rpg in 1967-68. And that's just Duke. I'm sure plenty of other ACC players did it in the '50s, '60s, and '70s.

It's possible there have only been two guys to do 19+ and 11+ since K has been at Duke, but it's certainly not true for "ACC history."

I am not sure, but that is the way they presented it... ACC history. That was why my jaw dropped when they put the graphic up. Should have know better than trust anything the media says....

Thanks for the correction.

[uh_no]

I saw this on TV as well, but it clearly is untrue. I know Art Heyman did it, for example, in 1961-62 (25+ ppg and 11.2 rpg; and he came with a few tenths of a percentage point of doing it three times in his three years at Duke -- with 25 ppg and 10.8 and 10.9 rpg; Mike Gminski also had 21+ points and 10.9 rpg in 1979-80). Randy Denton had 20+ ppg and 12+ rpg in both 1969-70 and 1970-71. Mike Lewis had 21.7 ppg and 14.4 rpg in 1967-68. And that's just Duke. I'm sure plenty of other ACC players did it in the '50s, '60s, and '70s.

It's possible there have only been two guys to do 19+ and 11+ since K has been at Duke, but it's certainly not true for "ACC history."

Just curious, are you sure we're looking at apples to apples here? Were perhaps the stats on tv only compiled in ACC play? or perhaps the ones you're looking at? and the others are for the whole season? that might explain some of the discrepancy....I would find it odd that the stats people, who are usually pretty decent over at ESPN would be this wrong for the entire season....

[Ggallagher]

I am not sure, but that is the way they presented it... ACC history. That was why my jaw dropped when they put the graphic up. Should have know better than trust anything the media says....

Thanks for the correction.

I saw the same graphic highlighting Mason's average and was impressed - and also didn't stop to think about Heyman, Denton, or Gminski. However this might be a case of the commentators just being lazy. It's pretty common for them to look at records from the shot clock era only whenever they comment on any current accomplishments. So Heyman, Denton, and Gminski wouldn't be included in any comparison like that.

Of course since those guys got the rebounds and the points without the shot clock and without the three point line it makes their earlier achievement more noteworthy.

But as long as Mason keeps beating everyone else currently playing, I'm going to stay real happy.

[gam7]

I saw the same graphic highlighting Mason's average and was impressed - and also didn't stop to think about Heyman, Denton, or Gminski. However this might be a case of the commentators just being lazy. It's pretty common for them to look at records from the shot clock era only whenever they comment on any current accomplishments. So Heyman, Denton, and Gminski wouldn't be included in any comparison like that.

Of course since those guys got the rebounds and the points without the shot clock and without the three point line it makes their earlier achievement more noteworthy.

But as long as Mason keeps beating everyone else currently playing, I'm going to stay real happy.

I suspect they got that factoid from the Duke Game Notes, which still list 19/11 stat as of the Elon Game Notes. I don't think it's fair to say it's lazy commentating to use stats from the published game notes (though maybe for a stat like that, which seems so surprising on its face, they could've asked someone at espn research - or stats inc. or whatever stats provider they use - to confirm it).

Link to Elon game notes (stat on page 4): https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf8/1038787.pdf?ATCLID=205841984&SPSID=22734&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200

[sagegrouse]

I suspect they got that factoid from the Duke Game Notes, which still list 19/11 stat as of the Elon Game Notes. I don't think it's fair to say it's lazy commentating to use stats from the published game notes (though maybe for a stat like that, which seems so surprising on its face, they could've asked someone at espn research - or stats inc. or whatever stats provider they use - to confirm it).

Link to Elon game notes (stat on page 4): https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf8/1038787.pdf?ATCLID=205841984&SPSID=22734&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200

Basically, it's an intern editing error, I suspect. It should read "only the second player since Ralph Sampson to average 19 and 11." Fact is, in the '50's and '60's, scoring and rebounding were highly concentrated among a few players. Mike Lewis had a 21 and 14 seasons; Randy Denton three times had more than 12 RBs a game and twice was better than 20 and 12. Other schools surely have similar results.

sagegrouse

[vick]

Basically, it's an intern editing error, I suspect. It should read "only the second player since Ralph Sampson to average 19 and 11." Fact is, in the '50's and '60's, scoring and rebounding were highly concentrated among a few players. Mike Lewis had a 21 and 14 seasons; Randy Denton three times had more than 12 RBs a game and twice was better than 20 and 12. Other schools surely have similar results.

sagegrouse

It's not just concentration, although I don't doubt that it's true that scoring and rebounding were more concentrated, it's also that there were significantly more rebounds available, because of a combination of faster pace and inferior shooting percentages (the former mattering significantly more than the latter for this period, though once you get back into the 50s, the lower shooting percentages start really affecting things). The NCAA record book (p. 44) (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/2013/2013%2001%20Div.%20I%2010-16.pdf) doesn't list rebounds per team for years prior to 1993 (I do not know why), but I estimated them for 1970 (Denton's junior year) and 1962 (when a junior Heyman averaged 11.2) by adding field goal misses times 56.3% of free throw misses*, and got 43.3 per game for 1970 and 44.7 for 1962. This is a pretty significant difference vs. 34.5 last year--for example, if you scale Mason's 9.2 per game last year to the 1962 rate you wind up with 11.9, and while I personally feel that Mason was underrated last year, it wasn't a historically excellent year.

Obviously this is a pretty crude calculation, since it's NCAA averages rather than Duke-specific, but it shows that just like how career totals need to be "adjusted" for things like freshman eligibility, rebounding averages underrate the skill of present players (this is a huge deal with NBA statistics, where more modern players such as Dennis Rodman fall way short of records despite being almost certainly substantially superior in rebounding percentages, which is what you actually care about).

* This is the figure which makes the 2012 estimate tie out, it represents an estimate of the number of free throw misses which are "live."

[turnandburn55]

I saw this on TV as well, but it clearly is untrue. I know Art Heyman did it, for example, in 1961-62 (25+ ppg and 11.2 rpg; and he came with a few tenths of a percentage point of doing it three times in his three years at Duke -- with 25 ppg and 10.8 and 10.9 rpg; Mike Gminski also had 21+ points and 10.9 rpg in 1979-80). Randy Denton had 20+ ppg and 12+ rpg in both 1969-70 and 1970-71. Mike Lewis had 21.7 ppg and 14.4 rpg in 1967-68. And that's just Duke. I'm sure plenty of other ACC players did it in the '50s, '60s, and '70s.

It's possible there have only been two guys to do 19+ and 11+ since K has been at Duke, but it's certainly not true for "ACC history."

19 and 11 is certainly an odd metric, but Antawn Jamison was within spitting distance (22.2/10.5) his senior year. Likewise Shelden was 18.8/10.7 as a senior. Beaker was 22.6/10.2 as a junior. Joe Smith was 19.4/10.7 and 20.8/10.6 as a freshman/sophomore. Certainly quite a few within a rounding error or so, but you have to look at some of the most dominant big man seasons in ACC history to find comparables.

[cptnflash]

There is no doubt that if the POY voting was done today, Mason would win, and deservedly so.

That being said, as the season wears on he will get serious competition from Doug McDermott and Tery Burke (hopefully Jeff Withey and Ben McLemore split the pro-Kansas vote). McDermott in particular could be troublesome, because he will most likely put up obscene numbers against generally inferior competition in the Missouri Valley Conference (a solid mid-major, but a huge step down from the ACC, even this year).

But honestly, I think Mason can do it. He not only has the skill set, he has the right attitude. He understands (and has said in several interviews) that in order for the team to be great, he has to be great. And as I mentioned in another thread, he has lowered his foul rate to the point where he can expect to play 35+ minutes most games. That will help him accumulate the counting stats (PPG, RPG, etc.) that voters value so much.

Finally, given how much the Plumlee family has meant (and will continue to mean) to Duke basketball, I think it would be totally awesome to have a Plumlee jersey in the rafters forever. I think he can do it. I'm rooting for him!

[nocilla]

Just curious, are you sure we're looking at apples to apples here? Were perhaps the stats on tv only compiled in ACC play? or perhaps the ones you're looking at? and the others are for the whole season? that might explain some of the discrepancy....I would find it odd that the stats people, who are usually pretty decent over at ESPN would be this wrong for the entire season....

I thought this may be it. And according to GoDuke.statsgeek, Art Heyman never averaged 11 reb in ACC play. http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines-conf.php?playerid=179

However, Randy Denton averaged 18.7 pts and 12.5 reb for his career in ACC play. In 1971, his senior season, he averaged 19.6 and 12.6. http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines-conf.php?playerid=115

Mike Lewis also did it in his senior season of 1968 with 22.9 and 14.9.
Mike Gminkski was close at 21.4 and 10.6 his senior year.

So the stat they are using must apply to some modern era time frame. Shot-clock era? Coach K era? I don't know.

[JasonEvans]

It is worth noting that Mason's candidacy, as well as that of the other leading contenders, will be very much dependent upon the play of their teams. If Duke remains #1 pretty much throughout the season and has a #1 seed in the bag at the end of the year, then it greatly enhances Mason's candidacy (assuming he continues to be the team leader and guy putting up gaudy stats for us, which would seem likely).

Similarly, if Michigan (Trey Burke) or Indiana (Zeller) end the season as the #1 team, it very much helps their bid for the award. The media tends to notice a team doing well and look at the guy leading them as much as they notice gaudy stats.

Creighton and Doug McDermott are also in this conversation. Creighton is likely to be favored in every game they play for the rest of the year. If they finish the season with only 2 or 3 losses and find themselves in the top 8 or so in the polls (currently #16), then it really helps McD's case for POY.

-Jason "the guy who wins the award this year will come from a team that loses less than 5 games" Evans

[nocilla]

I suspect they got that factoid from the Duke Game Notes, which still list 19/11 stat as of the Elon Game Notes. I don't think it's fair to say it's lazy commentating to use stats from the published game notes (though maybe for a stat like that, which seems so surprising on its face, they could've asked someone at espn research - or stats inc. or whatever stats provider they use - to confirm it).

Link to Elon game notes (stat on page 4): https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf8/1038787.pdf?ATCLID=205841984&SPSID=22734&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200

Looks like they have corrected the error in the Santa Clara game notes. (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205857985&DB_OEM_ID=4200)

• Mason Plumlee has scored 16 or more points in all 11 games this season and ranks second in the ACC in scoring (19.3 ppg.). He also leads the league in rebounding (11.5 rpg.) and double-doubles (seven). Plumlee is attempting to become just the fifth player in Duke history (joining Randy Denton, Mike Lewis, Art Heyman and Ronnie Mayer) to average 19.0 points and 11.0 rebounds per game for a season.

[Mike Corey]

Ken Pom has posted his NPOY ratings, and Mason is edging out Louisville's Russ Smith for first. http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_2013_kenpom.com_poy_race

[cptnflash]

Ken Pom has posted his NPOY ratings, and Mason is edging out Louisville's Russ Smith for first. http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_2013_kenpom.com_poy_race

This is both awesome and somewhat troubling, when you consider that neither of KenPom's POYs have won any of the more traditional awards (Wooden, Naismith, etc.). Two years ago he had Jared Sullinger as the KPOY, and last year he had Draymond Green. Unfortunately neither of them won any of the media-driven awards. Maybe Duke will start recognizing the KPOY winner for jersey retirement eligibility? That would be good enough for me.

[vick]

This is both awesome and somewhat troubling, when you consider that neither of KenPom's POYs have won any of the more traditional awards (Wooden, Naismith, etc.). Two years ago he had Jared Sullinger as the KPOY, and last year he had Draymond Green. Unfortunately neither of them won any of the media-driven awards. Maybe Duke will start recognizing the KPOY winner for jersey retirement eligibility? That would be good enough for me.

Not as bad when you compare with his historical "back test" (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_kpoy_a_history), where two of six (2009 - Griffin, 2010 - Turner) won. Also, in 2008 Love was almost certainly superior to Hansbrough but lost awards in what seems like a pretty clear case of UNC's faster tempo distorting statistics, and I don't know if there's a huge pace discrepancy between the teams of any top contenders this year.

[cptnflash]

Not as bad when you compare with his historical "back test" (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_kpoy_a_history), where two of six (2009 - Griffin, 2010 - Turner) won. Also, in 2008 Love was almost certainly superior to Hansbrough but lost awards in what seems like a pretty clear case of UNC's faster tempo distorting statistics, and I don't know if there's a huge pace discrepancy between the teams of any top contenders this year.

That's still only 2 out of 6. Which goes to show how wrong-headed most award voting still is, despite significant advances in analytics. But that's hardly unique to college basketball - just look at what happened to Mike Trout!

[vick]

That's still only 2 out of 6. Which goes to show how wrong-headed most award voting still is, despite significant advances in analytics. But that's hardly unique to college basketball - just look at what happened to Mike Trout!

Well, to be fair to the voters, Pomeroy includes the entire postseason, and a couple of the results likely would have flipped based on that--in 2005 May narrowly beats POY Bogut 0.497 to 0.482 after having a very strong tournament, and in 2006 Shelden beat POY Redick 0.459 to 0.452, that's for all reasonable purposes a tie. And in 2007, Durant probably did deserve the POY awards he got. 2008 stands out like a sore thumb because, setting Beasley aside (as his team was inferior), it's pretty tough to find a logical reason to have voted for Hansbrough over Love--on essentially equal teams, Love was a substantially more efficient scorer and a massively superior defender who was undervalued at least partly because Howland's teams play slow. I don't think Mason's candidacy faces the same problem from any plausible contender this year, since Duke plays at a reasonable (actually above-average) tempo--if he plays like he did the first 12 games, and Duke continues to play at a high level as a team, I think he'll receive national recognition as he should.

[sagegrouse]

That's still only 2 out of 6. Which goes to show how wrong-headed most award voting still is, despite significant advances in analytics. But that's hardly unique to college basketball - just look at what happened to Mike Trout!

Not attacking you Capt. Flash, but simply expressing ideas that are now bubbling to the surface.

Let's see: I agree that analytics are wonderful. I have graduate and undergraduate degrees in analytical fields and spent ten years or so building some fairly complex statistical models. Fortunately for my chosen profession and me personally, I soon moved on to management and other pursuits. Yet in my dotage, I still consult in business analytics.

Analysis has its limits.

If you rely 100 percent on the stat outputs, you are denying that the act of "watching the games" has any value. That's the implication of insisting that the best XYZ performance rating should always trump the vote of observers. Now, I will agree with you that some voters are rubes and don't watch the games, much less understand basketball from an expert's perspective. But you there are polls that use the votes of coaches, who do watch tons of games and players and do understand what they see.

But we should realize that statistical analysis, no matter how magical it seems, is a supporting tool and not a complete substitute for reasoned judgments based on all inputs, including watching tons of games and tapes.

sagegrouse

[cptnflash]

Not attacking you Capt. Flash, but simply expressing ideas that are now bubbling to the surface.

Let's see: I agree that analytics are wonderful. I have graduate and undergraduate degrees in analytical fields and spent ten years or so building some fairly complex statistical models. Fortunately for my chosen profession and me personally, I soon moved on to management and other pursuits. Yet in my dotage, I still consult in business analytics.

Analysis has its limits.

If you rely 100 percent on the stat outputs, you are denying that the act of "watching the games" has any value. That's the implication of insisting that the best XYZ performance rating should always trump the vote of observers. Now, I will agree with you that some voters are rubes and don't watch the games, much less understand basketball from an expert's perspective. But you there are polls that use the votes of coaches, who do watch tons of games and players and do understand what they see.

But we should realize that statistical analysis, no matter how magical it seems, is a supporting tool and not a complete substitute for reasoned judgments based on all inputs, including watching tons of games and tapes.

sagegrouse

I totally agree that watching tons of games is hugely valuable. It's also the most fun part of being a fan! But no matter how many games I watch, or how many times I watch our games (usually at least twice in their entirety, plus a few more looks at shorter segments), I can't possibly see everything. That's where stats come in. All stats are flawed, obviously, in that they only tell a portion of the truth. But some are less flawed than others, and I think we should try to use the "less bad" ones as much as possible. Unfortunately a lot of award voters in many different sports still put heavy emphasis on counting stats rather than rate/efficiency stats, despite clear evidence that the latter are usually more correlated to winning (which, in the end, is the whole point).

In Mason's case, fortunately, everything is converging in his favor. The "less bad" stats like win shares and KPOY align nicely with the more traditional counting stats like PPG and RPG, thanks in no small part to Mason's much lower foul rate and high minutes per game. And he's already got the media narrative on his side. If he continues to play well and we continue to win, I think this will wind up being one of those years where the stat-heads and the talking heads don't have anything to argue about.