Duke #1, UNC out of top 25

[OldPhiKap]

A very merry Christmas indeed!

[hudlow]

A very merry Christmas indeed!


Ho Ho Ho !

[oldnavy]

Threads over on IC questioning if they will get back into the top 25 this year.... actually might be a good question.

I think they have a really good chance to lose Saturday against UNLV, although if forced to bet I would say they pull out a close one at home....

If they do happen to lose then they will have lost 4 going into conference play. As weak as the ACC is this year you can figure at least 4-6 losses, so we could easily be looking at a 10+ loss year.

[cptnflash]

Pomeroy has UNC beating UNLV (just barely) and then going 10-8 in the ACC, to finish up 20-11. Depending on what happens in the ACC tournament, that would probably get them something like a 9 or 10 seed. Hopefully they can manage to lose a couple extra games relative to his expectation and squeak into the NIT undeservedly, just like three years ago!

[moonpie23]

don't count the tarholes out just yet.........can't depend on them to have the crappy season everyone thinks they will have....

ol roy will find a way to kick start that bunch...

[sporthenry]

don't count the Tar Heels out just yet.........can't depend on them to have the crappy season everyone thinks they will have....

ol roy will find a way to kick start that bunch...

With that talent, K would probably have a top 10 team. Which team had more talent, UNC's current team or Duke's '06/'07 team? On paper, it might just be UNC's team and K had that Duke team as a top 10 team this time of the year. Granted Duke was 21st by the tourney and un-ranked after the loss to VCU but I sometimes think Roy gets a pass here in an effort to be nice to Tar Heels. The guy is good but without a dominant big man and a PG to lead the break, his teams don't seem to have the it factor.

That is what makes K great and why the 2010 team cemented his legacy as one of the best coaches ever. He won in different eras with different styles. He adapts to his team and makes the most out of the situation. It truly is remarkable.

[OldPhiKap]

don't count the Tar Heels out just yet.........can't depend on them to have the crappy season everyone thinks they will have....

ol roy will find a way to kick start that bunch...

Would like to think this is reverse weaufing, but unfortunately it is true.

[davekay1971]

Well, if they suck in basketball and they're on probation in football, at least they're number 1 in something...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/27/colleges-with-the-best-se_n_1918845.html

By "progressive", does Playboy mean "votes Democratic", or do they mean, er, uh, open-minded...?

[OldPhiKap]

Well, if they suck in basketball and they're on probation in football, at least they're number 1 in something...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/27/colleges-with-the-best-se_n_1918845.html

By "progressive", does Playboy mean "votes Democratic", or do they mean, er, uh, open-minded...?

Yeah, but that picture of the goat is somewhat unsettling.

[PDDuke85]

Yeah, but that picture of the goat is somewhat unsettling.

That an article espousing the sex life at UNC and the only picture posted is that of a goat is telling.

[OldPhiKap]

That an article espousing the sex life at UNC and the only picture posted is that of a goat is telling.

To be fair, though -- the goat IS smiling.

[BD80]

That an article espousing the sex life at UNC and the only picture posted is that of a goat is telling.

How many unc alum read that article and, upon seeing the picture, comment:

"Of all goats they could have chosen for the picture, they had to pick an ugly one!"

[Indoor66]

How many unc alum read that article and, upon seeing the picture, comment:

"Of all goats they could have chosen for the picture, they had to pick an ugly one!"

You know - The Dump on the Hump - where men are men and sheep are scared.

[OldPhiKap]

How many unc alum read that article and, upon seeing the picture, comment:

"Of all goats they could have chosen for the picture, they had to pick an ugly one!"

No kid-ding!

[oldnavy]

No kid-ding!

Doesn't that just get your goat!

Thank heaven that Duke has updated the Devil costume.... whew that is one sad looking outfit!

[Duke2013]

UNC just doesn't seem to have the fire power. James Michael Mcadoo is not the player everyone thought he was going to be. UNC does not have that one, "go to guy". Lack of game time experience is really hurting them this year.

Duke on the other hand, has a lot of game time experience and it seems to be showing it's colors in the early part of the season.

GO DUKE!

[oldnavy]

UNC just doesn't seem to have the fire power. James Michael Mcadoo is not the player everyone thought he was going to be. UNC does not have that one, "go to guy". Lack of game time experience is really hurting them this year.

Duke on the other hand, has a lot of game time experience and it seems to be showing it's colors in the early part of the season.

GO DUKE!

JMM is a fine player, however as you stated, he has not shown himself to be a "take the game over" type of player. UNC's lack of post play is hurting them.

I expect UNLV to exploit that Saturday with their freshman phenom, Anthony Bennent abusing UNC's frontline.

I still give UNC the slight edge, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose large either.

I love it! Still waiting for the Roy implosion that we all know is coming!!!

[gam7]

An interesting fact: UNC has had only one game all year decided by less than double figures all season. That's pretty amazing. Will be interesting to see how their young roster responds to tough, close games.

[oldnavy]

An interesting fact: UNC has had only one game all year decided by less than double figures all season. That's pretty amazing. Will be interesting to see how their young roster responds to tough, close games.

Well the one game was the ECU game and they responded pretty well if you consider giving up an 18 point lead (closed to within 4) with less than 8 minutes to go to hang on by 6 as ok. I guess they could have totally folded and lost, so the fact that they won should count for something.

ECU just could not get the stops it needed to close the deal. I guess they were exhausted from scoring 61 points in the second half! :eek:

[dukeofcalabash]

Maybe THIS year they are spending too much time studying? I mean ...... well, you know ....... the past 50 years or so and now they've been uncovered as a "sports" first college.

[Eternal Outlaw]

Pretty funny question and answer in the latest Chad Ford chat:

You said last week that Joel James has the best pro prospects on the Heels. You must think pretty poorly of the current roster to pick a guy who can't catch, shoot, rebound, or defend to make that claim.

Chad Ford (1:51 PM)

You would be correct sir.

[throatybeard]

UNC's lack of post play is hurting them.

Oh, the irony. Is that irony? Where is Wheat?

[UrinalCake]

Oh, the irony. Is that irony? Where is Wheat?

Well in Wheat's defense, what I can recall is that his criticisms of Duke in the past have been that they needed more scoring to come from the post in order to have a balanced offense. It's not like this same thing hasn't been said by nearly every single Duke fan at some point. I do disagree with his assertion that this scoring must come in the form of traditional back-to-the-basket post moves. I think if we can get them from back door alley-oops, running hook shots, short jumpers, etc then that's fine as long as they are high percentage shots coming from our inside players.

With all that said, I do love the fact that Duke currently has one of, if not the best center/forwards in the country while UNC is forced to rely on three pointers, and not very successfully at that 8-)

[BD80]

Well, if they suck in basketball and they're on probation in football, at least they're number 1 in something...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/27/colleges-with-the-best-se_n_1918845.html

By "progressive", does Playboy mean "votes Democratic", or do they mean, er, uh, open-minded...?

They mean that the unc coeds defend their honor the way james michael billy-bob sue macadoo II defends the paint! "Welcome y'all!"

[OldPhiKap]

"Roy can't recruit big men (anymore)"

[BD80]

"Roy can't recruit big men (anymore)"

dadgummit, he can recruit 'em, he just can't coach 'em worth a lick

[OldPhiKap]

dadgummit, he can recruit 'em, he just can't coach 'em worth a lick


You must spread some Comments around before commenting on BD80 again.

dadgummit. That's genius right there.

When is the UNLV game?

[oldnavy]

dadgummit. That's genius right there.

When is the UNLV game?

2 p.m. tomorrow. Can't wait. My wife and son are going, so part of me will not be too upset if the heels pull it out (I hate to see them have a bad trip), but the larger part of me hopes that UNC gets beat by 30!

Does that make me a bad person??

[OldPhiKap]

2 p.m. tomorrow. Can't wait. My wife and son are going, so part of me will not be too upset if the heels pull it out (I hate to see them have a bad trip), but the larger part of me hopes that UNC gets beat by 30!

Does that make me a bad person??

I think you are making the most of a difficult circumstance.

Since I have no such conflict, however, I'm hoping your larger part ends up the happier part!

[moonpie23]

hopes that UNC gets beat by 30!



be still my heart.......

if they do, that won't be the entertainment tho......IC will be the main event...

[oldnavy]

be still my heart.......

if they do, that won't be the entertainment tho......IC will be the main event...

That, the gyrations of Roy on the sideline, and the post game news conference!!

I guess in the long run that does outweight the benefit of my wife and son having a good time! Besides, they will have a 3+ hour ride home to vent...

[OldPhiKap]

That, the gyrations of Roy on the sideline, and the post game news conference!!

I guess in the long run that does outweight the benefit of my wife and son having a good time! Besides, they will have a 3+ hour ride home to vent...

They chose the dark side, they get the consequences.

Not your fault they chose to root for an unranked team.

[oldnavy]

They chose the dark side, they get the consequences.

Not your fault they chose to root for an unranked team.

Yea, but I have to live with my wife, and if momma ain't happy.... well you know the rest. My son is no problem, I give him tons of grief every chance I get and he gives it right back.

[devildeac]

No kid-ding!

Baaaaaad, OPK. Very baaaaad.

[OldPhiKap]

Baaaaaad, OPK. Very baaaaad.

Thank ewe. Thank ewe very much.

(and vibes, of course).

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Oh, the irony. Is that irony? Where is Wheat?

Right here. How can I help you?

UNC is weak at this point in the post, but I do expect them to improve. One thing for sure, Roy will keep working on it because he knows how important a low post game is to his offense.

[TruBlu]

2 p.m. tomorrow. Can't wait. My wife and son are going, so part of me will not be too upset if the heels pull it out (I hate to see them have a bad trip), but the larger part of me hopes that UNC gets beat by 30!

Does that make me a bad person??

oldnavy, I am truly sorry that your wife and son are happy.;)

[oldnavy]

oldnavy, I am truly sorry that your wife and son are happy.;)

It's all good. The game played out pretty much like I thought it would. UNLV missed a lot of early close in shots that if they had made and kept the game pressure on UNC from the start may have changed the game, but same can be said in any game...

Wife and son had a great time and got back safe, so I am a happy, happy, happy man!

I am not ready to write off UNC like I was back in 2010. They may still put the peices together with this team and have a good season. You can see where they are weak, and really good teams will or should be able to exploit their weaknesses like IU, and Butler have done.

This was their best win thus far, and that is not really a great thing if you are a UNC fan. Vintage UNC teams would have not lost any of the games with the exception of IU, and that may not have been a loss either.

Time will tell with this bunch. They seem to be playing hard (if not always very smart).

[OldPhiKap]

It's all good. The game played out pretty much like I thought it would. UNLV missed a lot of early close in shots that if they had made and kept the game pressure on UNC from the start may have changed the game, but same can be said in any game...

Wife and son had a great time and got back safe, so I am a happy, happy, happy man!

I am not ready to write off UNC like I was back in 2010. They may still put the peices together with this team and have a good season. You can see where they are weak, and really good teams will or should be able to exploit their weaknesses like IU, and Butler have done.

This was their best win thus far, and that is not really a great thing if you are a UNC fan. Vintage UNC teams would have not lost any of the games with the exception of IU, and that may not have been a loss either.

Time will tell with this bunch. They seem to be playing hard (if not always very smart).

They will be okay if they all gel around a common goal, and they get consistently good point guard play. Not sure how likely either of those are, maybe Wheat or others have a better view on that. But those seem to be the biggest problems. You can get by without a big man, but you cannot get by without a good point man to initiate the offense.

[Bob Green]

I am not ready to write off UNC like I was back in 2010. They may still put the peices together with this team and have a good season. You can see where they are weak, and really good teams will or should be able to exploit their weaknesses like IU, and Butler have done.

The 2013 Tar Heels are a team that will slowly get better as the season progresses. They have the pieces. I watched the entire UNLV game and was impressed with several of their youngsters. Marcus Paige may never develop into a spectacular point guard but he is going to be solid once he gains a bit more experience. Brice Johnson looks like a player who will develop into a scorer. And Desmond Hubert is a tough defensive ball player. Even J.P. Tokoto and his woeful shooting brings something onto the court. That something is wing defense. Superstar heir apparent James Michael McAdoo isn't a physical low post bruiser but he has a lot of talent, and if the other pieces gel around him, Carolina will benefit immensely.

What Coach Williams desperately needs is for Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald, Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hairston to be leaders and consistent performers.

So that's a long winded agreement with oldnavy, the "stick a fork in 'em they're done" label will not be being broke out in 2013. The Tar Heels have plenty of potential to develop into a dangerous foe.

[Kedsy]

I am not ready to write off UNC like I was back in 2010. They may still put the peices together with this team and have a good season.


So that's a long winded agreement with oldnavy, the "stick a fork in 'em they're done" label will not be being broke out in 2013. The Tar Heels have plenty of potential to develop into a dangerous foe.

Well, on the face of it, I agree with you that writing off UNC this year would be a mistake. They have talent and they might start to gel.

What I don't understand is why people seem to think this is in any way a more talented UNC team than the 2009-10 bunch. The 2009-10 team had future NBA players Ed Davis, John Henson, and Tyler Zeller, plus pretty good college players Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard, plus Will Graves who was at least decent, and both Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald, albeit younger versions of them. Plus the Wear twins. And while we all like to poke fun at Larry Drew II, he was a better point guard in 2009-10 than Marcus Paige is now by pretty much any metric you could pick.

Obviously the wheels fell off the wagon for the 2009-10 UNC team. I expect this year's version will have a better record. But quite frankly I think that UNC team had a LOT more talent than this UNC team.

[sporthenry]

Well, on the face of it, I agree with you that writing off UNC this year would be a mistake. They have talent and they might start to gel.

What I don't understand is why people seem to think this is in any way a more talented UNC team than the 2009-10 bunch. The 2009-10 team had future NBA players Ed Davis, John Henson, and Tyler Zeller, plus pretty good college players Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard, plus Will Graves who was at least decent, and both Kevin Strickland and Leslie McDonald, albeit younger versions of them. Plus the Wear twins. And while we all like to poke fun at Larry Drew II, he was a better point guard in 2009-10 than Marcus Paige is now by pretty much any metric you could pick.

Obviously the wheels fell off the wagon for the 2009-10 UNC team. I expect this year's version will have a better record. But quite frankly I think that UNC team had a LOT more talent than this UNC team.

With that said, this UNC team still seems very talented. On paper, would you rather have UNC's team or Butler? VCU? Roy seems to have convinced everyone that this team isn't very skilled so any and all success will be attributed to Roy when he has a possible lottery pick along with a plethora of other highly touted guys.

I just fail to see how this UNC team is that different than a Duke team with McRoberts or Demarcus Nelson, yet UNC fans criticized those teams as somehow a failure by coach K, yet now, somehow they are turning this year into some miraculous coaching job by Roy.

[gumbomoop]

With that said, this UNC team still seems very talented. On paper, would you rather have UNC's team or Butler?

Two weeks ago on another thread, here's how I answered your question. Apologies for quoting myself, but it's a direct answer to your question.




C -- Advantage Butler. Hard to know who plays the 5 for Heels, and it's maybe going to be an ongoing problem for Roy. I've posted somewhere else that his best team is probably McAdoo and 4 perimeter guys. Anyhow, Butler's experienced Andrew Smith is right now a better player than James or Hubert, and better than Johnson, who really isn't a 5.

PF -- Advantage UNC. But not by as much as I'd have thought 2 months ago. I thought, and think, McAdoo can be "great," but other posters, understandably, remain to be convinced. Butler's Khyle Marshall is an undersized 4, but no slouch. He'd battle McAdoo, and in fact had the better game when the teams played in Maui. Anybody care to say PF is advantage Butler?

From here, specific-position-comparison gets dicey, for a couple of reasons: (1) Butler doesn't seem to have a PG, while Strickland and Paige seem to share the spot for UNC; and (2) Butler seems to have an all-purpose guy in 6'4"/225 Roosevelt Jones, who is a kind of point-forward.

Thus, maybe it works to discuss the other guys on each team as perimeter players. At first glance, eye-testing and, you know, reputation-testing, UNC seems to have a solid advantage. Heaven knows Bullock, Hairston, McDonald, Strickland, with a bit of Tokoto thrown in, should give UNC perimeter advantage. But Rotnei Clarke is so far more consistent, and better, than any of those guys. And though Bullock, Hairston, and McDonald all sport a better 3-bomb% than Kellen Dunham, Dunham appears to be clutch in big-game situations.

Don't know whether Roosevelt Jones will build on his strikingly confident performance v. IU, but he looked pretty impressive.

Again, UNC should have the overall advantage on the perimeter. But do they?

The Heels do not have the advantage on the bench, by which I do not refer to players 8-10. Less coyly, Stevens is the better game coach. Easily?

If we imagine a Butler-UNC rematch, I suppose this time the Heels would be prepared [see previous paragraph]. Which team would win? Which team would play to its potential? Which team is tougher?

I'd amend this today to add that on paper UNC surely looks stronger, or should look stronger because, well, they're UNC. But on the court, right now I'd rather have Butler, for the reasons I cited above, a few weeks back. Butler's potential is less, but not that much less, than UNC's; and because the Bulldogs play tougher and more consistently, right now they're probably more likely to play to their potential than are the Heels.

Butler has the better game coach.

[cptnflash]

UNC has good perimeter scorers, but they are weak in two key places: inside, and at the point. They should finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th in the ACC, and given their poor non-conference performance, they could be at risk of missing the NCAA tournament.

McAdoo cost himself a LOT of money by staying in school instead of entering the draft - he's not a very good player and now everyone knows it. Of the other three bigs, Brice Johnson appears to be by far the best but so far Roy hasn't realized it and is playing Joel James and Desmond Hubert just as much (one of Roy's shortcomings as a coach has always been overplaying his bench). On the perimeter, Bullock is great, and Strickland/Hairston/MacDonald are all ok. Paige might eventually be decent but he will be physically and emotionally overwhelmed in ACC play this year. It's a man's league, and he's still a boy. Obviously he was never meant to start this year, so it's a little unfair, but that's the breaks. My guess is that they eventually start Strickland at the point, with Hairston and Bullock at the 2/3 (interchangable). Obviously not ideal, because Strickland isn't a point guard, but it's probably better than the alternative. I figure it takes Roy 2 or 3 conference losses before he figures that out.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Roy is an excellent coach. A hall of fame coach that has a history to prove it at the highest level of college basketball.

When I read that he's just not good, I have to shake my head at those comments.

This UNC team has issues. It's not a complete team. They are young and in many areas, physically immature.

My early take on the players...

McAdoo is struggling. It's not a lack of talent, it's learning to be a post player. He is just not finishing to score because his shots are being challenged by some big players and he's yet to develop a feel for scoring inside. He's much more comfortable facing up and it shows. But if he is ever going to have an NBA career, this is a learning process he will have to embrace. He's a young guy who seems to be doing just that. Way to early to give up on him as an impact player.

Brice Johnson is a special talent. He's bouncy, quick, long, smooth and has that scoring feel around the basket that McAdoo is looking for. What he's missing is strength, and mental toughness, a studs confidence. Give him some time.

Pj Hairston is an enigma. He has a well rounded game, plenty of strength, more than enough confidence but seems to lack the intuitive feel for the flow of a game. Maybe he's just young and it will come, he has slowly improved on it. At Roy's press conferences it seems there is always a comment about who knows what these "kids" will do. Pj's probably in the mental picture there...

Bullock is a very good player who's weakness is he struggles to create space with his dribble. If UNC had better breakdown dribblers that created more space for him, he would be a force. That may come.

Strickland is a rock. A good all around player that can do it all. He's never going to be a big scorer, but he can score if ignored. He can breakdown a defense with the dribble, but he's not an intuitive passer to take advantage of the defense. Still a solid player on both ends.

Paige is just young and physically immature. He has plenty of talent to be a very good ACC point guard. Give him time.

Joel James is going to be a good player. He's big and strong and knows where his bread is buttered, so to speak. He is a true low post center. I'm tempted to campare him to Brendan Haywood at this stage, but Haywood was farther along with his post moves and I think had better a nose for the ball at this point. Another work in progress.

McDonald is obviously not the same player he was before his knee injury, and that's a shame. He can be really good if his quickness would return. I don't know if it's physical or mental, but he's playing tentative. I had an ACL replacement on my knee, and it's a serious mental effort to have confidence in the knee. I will never be confident in mine like I used to be, that's for sure.

There are lots of interesting things going on with this edition of UNC. Roy is coaching them up and they will be competitive this season.

[Wander]

Aside from Kendall Marshall, who's the best passer I've ever seen in college basketball (Hurley was before my time), all the recent UNC guards have sucked. That may be a little blunt, strong, and simplistic, but it's the easiest way to understand what's going on. Roy is a (very good) system coach, and when he doesn't have a great point guard, his teams really show why other Division 1 coaches gave him the "most overrated" title. I think "Roy can't develop shooting guards" should be more of a meme than the Duke center thing.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Aside from Kendall Marshall, who's the best passer I've ever seen in college basketball (Hurley was before my time), all the recent UNC guards have sucked. That may be a little blunt, strong, and simplistic, but it's the easiest way to understand what's going on. Roy is a (very good) system coach, and when he doesn't have a great point guard, his teams really show why other Division 1 coaches gave him the "most overrated" title. I think "Roy can't develop shooting guards" should be more of a meme than the Duke center thing.

I don't think Roy is any different than any other coach when it comes to needing good point guard play.

As for the other coaches and the "over-rated" stuff. Think there might be some jealousy that he was very fortunate to go from asstitant coach straight to coach at Kansas and then UNC where he had a big recruiting advantage? They would all like that career path.

Polls like that serve no purpose. Results come from the court and there Roy has done very well.

[sagegrouse]

Aside from Kendall Marshall, who's the best passer I've ever seen in college basketball (Hurley was before my time), all the recent UNC guards have sucked. That may be a little blunt, strong, and simplistic, but it's the easiest way to understand what's going on. Roy is a (very good) system coach, and when he doesn't have a great point guard, his teams really show why other Division 1 coaches gave him the "most overrated" title. I think "Roy can't develop shooting guards" should be more of a meme than the Duke center thing.

What's wrong with Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson. I thought they were amazingly good and impossible to guard?

sagegrouse

[CDu]

Well, on the face of it, I agree with you that writing off UNC this year would be a mistake. They have talent and they might start to gel.

What I don't understand is why people seem to think this is in any way a more talented UNC team than the 2009-10 bunch. The 2009-10 team had future NBA players Ed Davis, John Henson, and Tyler Zeller, plus pretty good college players Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard, plus Will Graves who was at least decent, and both Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald, albeit younger versions of them. Plus the Wear twins. And while we all like to poke fun at Larry Drew II, he was a better point guard in 2009-10 than Marcus Paige is now by pretty much any metric you could pick.

Obviously the wheels fell off the wagon for the 2009-10 UNC team. I expect this year's version will have a better record. But quite frankly I think that UNC team had a LOT more talent than this UNC team.

Agreed. They have an athletic but limited (skill-wise) PF who is showing that he really isn't a go-to scorer. They have a PG who is probably a year away from being ready for major conference play. They have a SG who is a terrific defender and pretty decent driver but can't shoot. They have two wings who are inconsistent shooters. And the have a 3-headed monster of one-dimensional options in the frontcourt (one good defensive player, one decent offensive player, one big guy who is still learning the game).

The 2010 team had its limitations, but I think it had much more talent than this squad. That team really underperformed. I think this team is performing about where it should be (though things could get better as the team develops).

[CDu]

What's wrong with Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson. I thought they were amazingly good and impossible to guard?

sagegrouse

To be fair, if Hurley was before Wander's time, then Felton probably doesn't qualify as "recent." Lawson certainly should, though. Because otherwise, the list of "recent" PG is limited to Marcus Paige, Marshall, and Drew. Not a very extensive list.

Williams seems to be on a 50/50 stretch with PG recruits. Fraser wasn't great, Lawson was. Drew wasn't great, Marshall was. Paige may or may not be great. We'll see.

[sporthenry]

Roy is an excellent coach. A hall of fame coach that has a history to prove it at the highest level of college basketball.

When I read that he's just not good, I have to shake my head at those comments.


Nobody said "he's just not good." What I said is that he hasn't gotten the most out of his players. When McRoberts or Paulus didn't develop, it wasn't really that they were young or lacked talent but was seem as some colossal failure by K. I'm just holding Roy to that same level.

As someone mentioned later, Roy is a system coach. He needs a go to post scorer and a good point guard. In 2005, you had Sean May and Felton to lead the break. In 2009, you had Lawson and Hansbrough. In 2010, you had Drew who didn't fit Roy's system and Davis was a lot like JMM and Zeller wasn't dominant yet.

Meanwhile, K has won titles with different teams. 2001 had a traditional PG with Jay Williams, an undersized 4 with Battier, a fairly dominant big man in Boozer and a great wing in Singler and a team that ran you out of the gym. In 2010, you had no true point guard, Scheyer at the 1, Nolan at the 2, Singler at the 3, Thomas at the 4, and Zoubek at the 5. Duke had no inside presence scoring wise but was good from a rebounding perspective. But that Duke defense slowed the pace down and worked efficiently on both offense and defense. In 2010, Duke went over 80 points 12 times, in 2001, it went over 80, 32 times. The only thing that seems similar are Dunleavy and Singler. K adapts to his team whereas Roy makes his team adapt to his system from what I can tell.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

Nobody said "he's just not good." What I said is that he hasn't gotten the most out of his players. When McRoberts or Paulus didn't develop, it wasn't really that they were young or lacked talent but was seem as some colossal failure by K. I'm just holding Roy to that same level.

As someone mentioned later, Roy is a system coach. He needs a go to post scorer and a good point guard. In 2005, you had Sean May and Felton to lead the break. In 2009, you had Lawson and Hansbrough. In 2010, you had Drew who didn't fit Roy's system and Davis was a lot like JMM and Zeller wasn't dominant yet.

Meanwhile, K has won titles with different teams. 2001 had a traditional PG with Jay Williams, an undersized 4 with Battier, a fairly dominant big man in Boozer and a great wing in Singler and a team that ran you out of the gym. In 2010, you had no true point guard, Scheyer at the 1, Nolan at the 2, Singler at the 3, Thomas at the 4, and Zoubek at the 5. Duke had no inside presence scoring wise but was good from a rebounding perspective. But that Duke defense slowed the pace down and worked efficiently on both offense and defense. In 2010, Duke went over 80 points 12 times, in 2001, it went over 80, 32 times. The only thing that seems similar are Dunleavy and Singler. K adapts to his team whereas Roy makes his team adapt to his system from what I can tell.
Bless his heart, even Roy admits this when he says he doesn't know what's wrong and that he's been doing things the very same way his entire career and just can't understand why his current guys guys don't get it.
Love, Ima

[Wander]

To be fair, if Hurley was before Wander's time, then Felton probably doesn't qualify as "recent." Lawson certainly should, though. Because otherwise, the list of "recent" PG is limited to Marcus Paige, Marshall, and Drew. Not a very extensive list.


Ha, well, I was offering an explanation for why UNC has experienced a drop-off since 2009; I probably should have used a word other than "recent." Felton and Lawson were awesome, but I don't think anyone's arguing UNC wasn't very good during 2005-2009.

So, more clearly: since 2009, every UNC guard (both point and shooting) except Kendall Marshall has been overrated, and sometimes by a substantial amount. This is the primary reason for the 2010 and 2013 struggles.



I don't think Roy is any different than any other coach when it comes to needing good point guard play.

As for the other coaches and the "over-rated" stuff. Think there might be some jealousy that he was very fortunate to go from asstitant coach straight to coach at Kansas and then UNC where he had a big recruiting advantage? They would all like that career path.

Polls like that serve no purpose. Results come from the court and there Roy has done very well.


I don't find it unreasonable to bring up the jealousy angle, but you're being far too dismissive of what is apparently a pretty common opinion among Division 1 head coaches.

Roy is definitely less adaptable than K, and his system is more reliant on the PG position. Compare how Duke did with Paulus as the primary point guard vs how UNC did with Larry Drew as the main guy, for example.

[OldPhiKap]

Roy is a very good coach. His substitution patterns and (non)use of timeouts baffles me, and I do not think many would claim that in-game adjustments are his strength. But he is clearly one of the top three UNC coaches in history.

[uh_no]

Roy is a very good coach. His substitution patterns and (non)use of timeouts baffles me, and I do not think many would claim that in-game adjustments are his strength. But he is clearly one of the top three UNC coaches in history.

who you got at 2?

doherty or guthridge :P

[MChambers]

who you got at 2?

doherty or guthridge :P

Matt Doherty will always be my favorite UNC coach.

[hurleyfor3]

who you got at 2?

doherty or guthridge :P

Roy isn't in the top six.

1. Dean
2. Dean's ghost (think of unc fans saying things like "Dean woulda won that game")
3. Frank McGwire
4. Guthridge ('98 team set several records for first-year coach; won Naismith COY, which roy has never done at unc; beat Duke in first game against them)
5. Doh (won AP NCOY, matching roy's total at unc; also beat Duke in first game against them; recruited 2005 team)
6. whoever their coach was in 1924

[OldPhiKap]

who you got at 2?

doherty or guthridge :P

D'oh! was my favorite, but I think Roy is behind Dean and Frank. Not sure many UNC and who followed during the McGuire years would disagree, frankly.

[Indoor66]

6. whoever their coach was in 1924

and that would have been Norm Shepard (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Carolina_Tar_Heels_men's_basketball_ head_coaches)who coached one year ('23 - '24) to a 26 - 0 record (only to be succeeded by the legendary Monk McDonald :)).

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Roy is definitely less adaptable than K, and his system is more reliant on the PG position. Compare how Duke did with Paulus as the primary point guard vs how UNC did with Larry Drew as the main guy, for example.

You are conveniently forgetting the multitude of injuries that plagued the '10 season when you say he didn't do much with Drew, and the cancer we now know that Drew was on team chemistry, which was his real problem, not his talent.

[OldPhiKap]

You are conveniently forgetting the multitude of injuries that plagued the '10 season when you say he didn't do much with Drew, and the cancer we now know that Drew was on team chemistry, which was his real problem, not his talent.

Gotta disagree on the last point. Kendall Marshall was clearly better than LD II but Roy wouldn't bench LD. LD's best game, iirc, was when he came off the bench the first game Kendall started. Roy refused to bench coach Drew's son even though it was clear his talent was inferior to Kendall.

I do not fault Roy for sticking with his guy -- K did the same with Paulus, for example -- but LD II's problem on the court was not attitude. It was ability.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Gotta disagree on the last point. Kendall Marshall was clearly better than LD II but Roy wouldn't bench LD. LD's best game, iirc, was when he came off the bench the first game Kendall started. Roy refused to bench coach Drew's son even though it was clear his talent was inferior to Kendall.

I do not fault Roy for sticking with his guy -- K did the same with Paulus, for example -- but LD II's problem on the court was not attitude. It was ability.

I think you are talking about the '10-11 season, my understanding was we were discussing the '09-'10 season where Drew started and UNC went 20-17 and NIT.

Larry Drew is the last guy I'd want to defend around here, but I guess I'll have to. Drew has quality PG talent. We can look at his 8+ assists a game now at a struggling UCLA as evidence. I'll stand by my belief that his main problem is between his ears.

Roy did give him every chance to step up in '10-'11, but not beyond a point in the season that the team couldn't progress. (He didn't have much choice in '09-'10).

When it became clear that KM was doing a better job, Roy made the move and Drew hit the road, that team went on to the elite 8. I guess we can say he made a good coaching move after all... :)

[OldPhiKap]

Wheat, I may be getting the years confused, do not follow as close as you. But it was clear to many well before pulling the plug that Marshall was much superior to Drew. Hell, the players were saying it publicly. And I do not think that Roy made the change as soon as some revisionist viewing may present.

As far as Drew's problems being "between his ears" I agree that it is one of his problems. But the comment you made before was different -- that he problem with Drew was "team chemistry." You've changed the argument WADR.

To be clear, Roy is one of the top twenty coaches in the country and has a nice body of work. He is not the best in the ACC IMO, nor the best coach ever at UNC. I assume we both agree he is behind Dean. Agree that he is also behind McGuire? I know many Carolina fans who agree with me on that, curious as to the modern view.

Edit to add: I claim copyright to WADR if not already claimed.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Wheat, I may be getting the years confused, do not follow as close as you. But it was clear to many well before pulling the plug that Marshall was much superior to Drew. Hell, the players were saying it publicly. And I do not think that Roy made the change as soon as some revisionist viewing may present.

As far as Drew's problems being "between his ears" I agree that it is one of his problems. But the comment you made before was different -- that he problem with Drew was "team chemistry." You've changed the argument WADR.

To be clear, Roy is one of the top twenty coaches in the country and has a nice body of work. He is not the best in the ACC IMO, nor the best coach ever at UNC. I assume we both agree he is behind Dean. Agree that he is also behind McGuire? I know many Carolina fans who agree with me on that, curious as to the modern view.

Edit to add: I claim copyright to WADR if not already claimed.

I agree Dean was the better coach, of course he was the best ever, :). McGuire was before my time so can't judge him.

My point was Drew is a head case, and it caused bad team chemistry, but he has legitimate high div 1 PG skills.

I guess we can blame Roy for recruiting him, sometimes mistakes are made recruiting players that fit, but that stuff happens everywhere.

[ForkFondler]

Edit to add: I claim copyright to WADR if not already claimed.

For "WADR", first-hit Google returns "Wardrobe Malfunction". Not that there is anything wrong with that.

Second hit is With-All-Due-Respect, but whatever.

[OldPhiKap]

For "WADR", first-hit Google returns "Wardrobe Malfunction". Not that there is anything wrong with that.

Second hit is With-All-Due-Respect, but whatever.

It could mean either. MFIOAIDNC.



P.s. sent you a comment, Apple garbled it I am afraid.

[UrinalCake]

I agree that chemistry and injuries were much bigger factors in that 2009-10 team than talent.

I read on another board that Reggie Bullock recently made some public comments that players on this year's team are "playing for stats." These comments were repeated on air by Jason Williams during one of the broadcasts. UNC fans mostly suspect that he's referring to McAdoo, though no one knows for sure.

Anyone else know about this? I have no love lost for Bullock after his "rat face" comments, so the fact that he's spouting off to the media about what should be an internal team issue makes me kinda happy. And the notion of poor team chemistry could be an indicator of where some of their problems lie (though of course winning tends to cure a lot of that)

[Wander]

You are conveniently forgetting the multitude of injuries that plagued the '10 season when you say he didn't do much with Drew, and the cancer we now know that Drew was on team chemistry, which was his real problem, not his talent.

No, I'm not. Injuries were an issue for the 2010 UNC team, but they were completely terrible even when healthy. For example, UNC was 2-7 in the ACC before Ed Davis got injured, and 3-4 afterward.

[Kishiznit]

IMO, as long as Strickland is on the floor whoever UNC is playing, has a chance.

[alteran]

Larry Drew is the last guy I'd want to defend around here, but I guess I'll have to. Drew has quality PG talent. We can look at his 8+ assists a game now at a struggling UCLA as evidence. I'll stand by my belief that his main problem is between his ears.

Roy did give him every chance to step up in '10-'11, but not beyond a point in the season that the team couldn't progress. (He didn't have much choice in '09-'10).

When it became clear that KM was doing a better job, Roy made the move and Drew hit the road, that team went on to the elite 8. I guess we can say he made a good coaching move after all... :)

This is pretty much how I remember it as well. I recall a number of conversations with friends (fairly even mixes of Duke and UNC fans) with a theme of "what the heck is wrong at Carolina" during this era. Whenever someone brought up LD2 as the problem, someone else would point to a box score, and statistically it was hard to pin the problem on him. Clearly, something that doesn't show up dramatically on a stat sheet was the problem.

I actually wonder if LD2 is the stink in the UCLA sauce-- people just haven't figured out that despite decent stats, something involving him is poisonous to talented teams.

All that being said, I'm increasingly convinced that Roy-- despite being a very talented coach-- has some sort of weird weakness featuring a mix of being unusually dependent upon a phenomenally talented point, an inability to DEVELOP PG talent coaching-wise, and an inability to maximize point guard play outside of a very specific set of point guard skills. Nothing I can defend statistically in all likelihood, it's just that things seem to come up at UNC that most other talented coaches can work around-- things that seem to completely bewilder Roy.

It feels like a pattern. JMHO.

[UrinalCake]

I mean you could say that Coach K is weirdly dependent on having veteran leaders, or on having good defenders, or excellent three point shooters, or intelligent point guards. All of our title teams had those. Roy has his style just like Coach K and every other coach. Is Roy less adaptable than K? Maybe, but not to the degree that I think most of us are saying. A lot if critics think we would have won the title in 1999 if Coach K had gone to a zone defense, and gone farther in 1998 if he had played Avery more and Wojo less, and in 2006 if he had developed the bench more during the season so JJ and Shelden didn't wear out. But Coach K has his style and sticks to it.

[Nugget]

I think Carolina this year will end up much better than Carolina in 2009-2010.

That team was undone in my view mostly by the backcourt problems, stemming from: (1) Larry Drew not being very good at PG, and (2) the other guards either being young (Freshmen Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald), or not playmakers (Sr. Marcus Ginyard) and/or inconsistent shooters (all of them).

The injuries, which hampered Zeller all year and knocked out Ed Davis for the 2nd half of the season, certainly didn't help. And, it's worth remembering that Jon Henson was a very limited player as a freshman. So, that Carolina frontcourt ended up being led the journeyman Deon Thompson and former walk-on Will Graves, plus Davis before he got hurt.

I see Paige as much better than Drew and think that this year's team can do better with experience in the back court (Strickland, Bullock, Hairston and McDonald) even with a frontcourt that is less experienced/talented than the 2009-2010 team.

[Wander]

This is pretty much how I remember it as well. I recall a number of conversations with friends (fairly even mixes of Duke and UNC fans) with a theme of "what the heck is wrong at Carolina" during this era. Whenever someone brought up LD2 as the problem, someone else would point to a box score, and statistically it was hard to pin the problem on him. Clearly, something that doesn't show up dramatically on a stat sheet was the problem.


I think it does show up on the stat sheet, but it's a number whose value is underappreciated by most fans (in football too, I think): turnovers. A turnover is more harmful than an assist is helpful. His turnover rate was MUCH worse than even those Duke guards who are not known for pure PG skills like Nolan Smith, Austin Rivers, or Gerald Henderson. Not turning the ball over is underrated as a skill, and goes a large way toward explaining why our 2010 team (and Scheyer in particular) was so underrated.

[brevity]

I mean you could say that Coach K is weirdly dependent on having veteran leaders, or on having good defenders, or excellent three point shooters, or intelligent point guards. All of our title teams had those. Roy has his style just like Coach K and every other coach. Is Roy less adaptable than K? Maybe, but not to the degree that I think most of us are saying. A lot if critics think we would have won the title in 1999 if Coach K had gone to a zone defense, and gone farther in 1998 if he had played Avery more and Wojo less, and in 2006 if he had developed the bench more during the season so JJ and Shelden didn't wear out. But Coach K has his style and sticks to it.

Well said. At some point we start talking about the notion of winning at all costs, where the costs include a coach deviating so far from his normal style that he loses all control of his program. Which has happened elsewhere. Coach K is true to himself and has won 4 national championships in the process. Could he have won more? Maybe, but we wouldn't recognize him anymore. (And, while we're talking revisionist history, neither would his ex-wife.)

[alteran]

I think it does show up on the stat sheet, but it's a number whose value is underappreciated by most fans (in football too, I think): turnovers. A turnover is more harmful than an assist is helpful. His turnover rate was MUCH worse than even those Duke guards who are not known for pure PG skills like Nolan Smith, Austin Rivers, or Gerald Henderson. Not turning the ball over is underrated as a skill, and goes a large way toward explaining why our 2010 team (and Scheyer in particular) was so underrated.

LD II's assist-to-turnover ratio in 2010 was 1.9-1 (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/353769-is-larry-drew-to-blame-for-the-tar-heels-woes), barely under the point guard gold standard of 2-1. There might be statistics problems with him that show he caused the problems that year at UNC (I am generally proudly ignorant of UNC stats) but assists-to-turnovers is not it.

[Kedsy]

I think it does show up on the stat sheet, but it's a number whose value is underappreciated by most fans (in football too, I think): turnovers. A turnover is more harmful than an assist is helpful. His turnover rate was MUCH worse than even those Duke guards who are not known for pure PG skills like Nolan Smith, Austin Rivers, or Gerald Henderson. Not turning the ball over is underrated as a skill, and goes a large way toward explaining why our 2010 team (and Scheyer in particular) was so underrated.

Well, comparing LDII to Rivers or Henderson is sort of apples to oranges, isn't it? They didn't have the ball in their hands nearly so much. And it's also kind of unfair to compare him to Nolan Smith because the one year Nolan was our primary ballhandler, he was an All American, NPOY candidate.

LDII in 2009-10 (his first year playing starter's minutes) had a turnover rate of 30.1 and an assist/turnover ratio of 1.9, which compares favorably to Greg Paulus's freshman year (2005-06) numbers of 33.2 and 1.6, and isn't that much worse than Jason Williams's freshman year numbers of 25.8 and 1.6. Marcus Paige is currently at 27.5 and 1.7.

LDII's current numbers for UCLA are a pretty good turnover rate of 20.3 and a fantastic a/to ratio of 5.1. It's hard to say his turnovers are what's causing UCLA's problems.

[Kedsy]

The injuries, which hampered Zeller all year and knocked out Ed Davis for the 2nd half of the season, certainly didn't help.

Zeller was healthy enough to play 27 games and play 17.4 mpg in those games. The UNC team played pretty well after Davis got hurt.


And, it's worth remembering that Jon Henson was a very limited player as a freshman. So, that Carolina frontcourt ended up being led the journeyman Deon Thompson and former walk-on Will Graves, plus Davis before he got hurt.

My recollection is Henson played pretty well toward the end of that year, which is probably a main reason why the team seemed to play better after Davis got hurt. I thought Thompson was a pretty good college player. His 2009-10 numbers of 13.7 ppg and 6.7 rpg are somewhat comparable to McAdoo's current 14.8 and 8.3, and Thompson's oRating of 106.1 is way better than McAdoo's current 95.3. Graves's oRating that year was a very serviceable 112.3, though IIRC he wasn't much of a defensive player.


I see Paige as much better than Drew...

Based on what? Statistically, LDII was better in 2009-10 than Paige is now in almost all the important categories (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=larry-drew-ii&larry-drew-ii=2009-2010&p1=marcus-paige).

[OldPhiKap]

I think it does show up on the stat sheet, but it's a number whose value is underappreciated by most fans (in football too, I think): turnovers. A turnover is more harmful than an assist is helpful. His turnover rate was MUCH worse than even those Duke guards who are not known for pure PG skills like Nolan Smith, Austin Rivers, or Gerald Henderson. Not turning the ball over is underrated as a skill, and goes a large way toward explaining why our 2010 team (and Scheyer in particular) was so underrated.

A further point on that is the difference between live-ball turnovers and dead-ball ones. Scheyer rarely turned the ball over in the open court.

[Wander]

Well, comparing LDII to Rivers or Henderson is sort of apples to oranges, isn't it? They didn't have the ball in their hands nearly so much. And it's also kind of unfair to compare him to Nolan Smith because the one year Nolan was our primary ballhandler, he was an All American, NPOY candidate.

LDII in 2009-10 (his first year playing starter's minutes) had a turnover rate of 30.1 and an assist/turnover ratio of 1.9, which compares favorably to Greg Paulus's freshman year (2005-06) numbers of 33.2 and 1.6, and isn't that much worse than Jason Williams's freshman year numbers of 25.8 and 1.6. Marcus Paige is currently at 27.5 and 1.7.

LDII's current numbers for UCLA are a pretty good turnover rate of 20.3 and a fantastic a/to ratio of 5.1. It's hard to say his turnovers are what's causing UCLA's problems.

I largely agree with the Paulus comparison, which supports my original point. Duke's 2007 was much better than UNC's 2010, despite Paulus and Drew being somewhat comparable players. Obviously there are guys on those teams other than just Paulus and Drew, but I'd still point to K's greater ability to adapt and Roy's higher dependence on talented PGs in order to explain why Duke's down year was so much better than UNC's down year.



LD II's assist-to-turnover ratio in 2010 was 1.9-1, barely under the point guard gold standard of 2-1. There might be statistics problems with him that show he caused the problems that year at UNC (I am generally proudly ignorant of UNC stats) but assists-to-turnovers is not it.


This is probably a discussion for another time, but I think assist-to-turnover ratio is a silly statistic and should be done away with in basketball conversation (which is why I phrased it as Drew having a high turnover rate, rather than a low A/T ratio). An assist is not the opposite of a turnover - if anything, a steal is.

[alteran]

I mean you could say that Coach K is weirdly dependent on having veteran leaders, or on having good defenders, or excellent three point shooters, or intelligent point guards. All of our title teams had those. Roy has his style just like Coach K and every other coach. Is Roy less adaptable than K? Maybe, but not to the degree that I think most of us are saying. A lot if critics think we would have won the title in 1999 if Coach K had gone to a zone defense, and gone farther in 1998 if he had played Avery more and Wojo less, and in 2006 if he had developed the bench more during the season so JJ and Shelden didn't wear out. But Coach K has his style and sticks to it.

Well, you could say that, but it would hardly be related to what I was saying above.

I was talking about exceptional, clearly top tier point guards. Not "good," but someone national recognition level in ability. Roy seems to have trouble generating exceptional teams without one of those in the point guard department, someone arriving at UNC almost entirely ready to play at that level. I was not referring to generic virtually-every-decent-team-has-them qualities like "senior leadership," "good defenders," or "excellent three-point shooters." Perhaps I could have made that more clear.

That being said, I see your point. Coaches have tendencies, and can only modify their style so far before leaving what they're good at. Maybe Roy's tendencies and ability to compensate for them is no worse than other upper echelon coaches. Personally, I think I see a pattern with Roy at UNC, but you may be right that I am mistaken. It's probably too vague an argument for me to make with statistics, surely.

[alteran]

This is probably a discussion for another time, but I think assist-to-turnover ratio is a silly statistic and should be done away with in basketball conversation (which is why I phrased it as Drew having a high turnover rate, rather than a low A/T ratio). An assist is not the opposite of a turnover - if anything, a steal is.

Actually, I'd be interested in the discussion, as it might illuminate what we're talking about. That stat you mention is not on typical box scores, which might explain the elusiveness of LD2's statistical awfulness. I cannot find any meaningful discussion online of "turnover rate" WRT to point guards, no real discussion of its context, or what values are poor, good, or awesome.

I found this detailed sheet (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/ucla/larry-drew-ii) on LD2, however. Might you be referring to turnover percentage? LD2's number there in 2010 was 30.1. That sounds awful, but it's not entirely clear to me how that was calculated, because everywhere I see it discussed, it is in a team context. Would this be like plus-minus where it's the TEAM turnovers while Drew is in the game? What are "normal" numbers like? Can't find info on that, either.

Any thoughts?

[luvdahops]

Zeller was healthy enough to play 27 games and play 17.4 mpg in those games. The UNC team played pretty well after Davis got hurt.



My recollection is Henson played pretty well toward the end of that year, which is probably a main reason why the team seemed to play better after Davis got hurt. I thought Thompson was a pretty good college player. His 2009-10 numbers of 13.7 ppg and 6.7 rpg are somewhat comparable to McAdoo's current 14.8 and 8.3, and Thompson's oRating of 106.1 is way better than McAdoo's current 95.3. Graves's oRating that year was a very serviceable 112.3, though IIRC he wasn't much of a defensive player.



Based on what? Statistically, LDII was better in 2009-10 than Paige is now in almost all the important categories (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=larry-drew-ii&larry-drew-ii=2009-2010&p1=marcus-paige).

Thompson was an effective role player on the star-laden 2007-2009 UNC teams, but he was expected to make a big jump in terms of production and leadership in 2010 and fell well short. Similar to what we have seen thus far from McAdoo, although it is worth noting that Thompson was a senior in 2010 while JMM is just a soph this year, and the latter does not have a low-post complement like Ed Davis either. Bigger things were also expected in 2010 from 5th year senior Marcus Ginyard, who had a pretty scuffling final season too (7.7ppg on 41% FG shooting, 31% from 3).

[Kedsy]

I was talking about exceptional, clearly top tier point guards. Not "good," but someone national recognition level in ability. Roy seems to have trouble generating exceptional teams without one of those in the point guard department, someone arriving at UNC almost entirely ready to play at that level.

I think you're seeing what you want to see. First of all, it's an extremely small sample, since in 7 of his 10 years at UNC, Roy has had either Felton, Lawson, or Marshall. The other three years include this season, the 2009-10 train wreck, and the 2005-06 team that finished #10 in the country with Bobby Frasor at PG.

If you look at Roy's entire career, you'll see the following top ten teams on Roy's resume:



Year Record Final AP rank PG
---- ------ ------------- ------------------------------
2012 32-6 #4 Kendall Marshall
2011 29-8 #7 Kendall Marshall
2009 34-4 #2 Ty Lawson
2008 36-3 #1 Ty Lawson
2007 31-7 #4 Ty Lawson
2005 33-4 #2 Ray Felton
2006 23-8 #10 Bobby Frasor
2003 30-8 #6 Aaron Miles (Kirk Hinrich at SG)
2002 33-4 #2 Aaron Miles (Kirk Hinrich at SG)
1998 35-4 #2 Ryan Robertson
1997 34-2 #1 Jacque Vaughn
1996 29-5 #4 Jacque Vaughn
1995 25-6 #5 Jacque Vaughn
1993 29-6 #9 Adonis Jordan
1992 27-5 #9 Adonis Jordan
1990 30-5 #5 Kevin Pritchard


His four Kansas Final Fours (1991, 1993, 2002, 2003) had either Aaron Miles or Adonis Jordan as their PGs, not exactly "national recognition level in ability." Overall, I'd argue that most if not all of the above teams were exceptional, and many of the PGs on the list are merely "good" and not "exceptional, clearly top tier point guards." So, looking at Roy's career record, I can't agree with your assertion.

We may not like him, but Roy Williams has shown over his career that he can win with varying personnel. The idea perpetrated on this board that he can only succeed if he has an All American type PG and C both of whom came to college fully developed on arrival is a myth.

[Nugget]

Zeller was healthy enough to play 27 games and play 17.4 mpg in those games. The UNC team played pretty well after Davis got hurt. . . .

Based on what? Statistically, LDII was better in 2009-10 than Paige is now in almost all the important categories (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=larry-drew-ii&larry-drew-ii=2009-2010&p1=marcus-paige).

These are admittedly impressionistic, rather than statistically-based, opinions, but: (i) my recollection is that Zeller was, indeed, "hampered" by injuries, so that even though he was able to play much of the season, his inconsistent presence in the lineup hindered the team; and (ii) I think Drew did very little to create easy shots or make plays, whereas I see Paige as having the potential to do so.

You also didn't comment on what I see as a big difference between the 2009-2010 Carolina team and this team: the fact that Strickland and McDonald are Seniors vs. Freshmen, and that Bullock and Hairston as veterans are much better than Ginyard was on that team. As a whole, I just see the 2009-2010 Carolina backcourt as extremely weak as compared to this year's UNC team.

[Kedsy]

These are admittedly impressionistic, rather than statistically-based, opinions, but: (i) my recollection is that Zeller was, indeed, "hampered" by injuries, so that even though he was able to play much of the season, his inconsistent presence in the lineup hindered the team; and (ii) I think Drew did very little to create easy shots or make plays, whereas I see Paige as having the potential to do so.

You also didn't comment on what I see as a big difference between the 2009-2010 Carolina team and this team: the fact that Strickland and McDonald are Seniors vs. Freshmen, and that Bullock and Hairston as veterans are much better than Ginyard was on that team. As a whole, I just see the 2009-2010 Carolina backcourt as extremely weak as compared to this year's UNC team.

Drew got a lot of assists. I haven't seen anything that would make me think Paige is any better than Drew was, although of course that's an impressionistic view as well.

I agree with you that this year's UNC backcourt is better than the 2009-10 UNC backcourt. However, the 2009-10 UNC frontcourt was even "more better" than this year's UNC frontcourt. Overall, I think it's hard to argue that this year's UNC team is more talented than the 2009-10 UNC team. It may end up being a better team, but there's no way it's more talented.

[alteran]

I think you're seeing what you want to see. First of all, it's an extremely small sample, since in 7 of his 10 years at UNC, Roy has had either Felton, Lawson, or Marshall. The other three years include this season, the 2009-10 train wreck, and the 2005-06 team that finished #10 in the country with Bobby Frasor at PG.

(convincing argument snipped :o)

We may not like him, but Roy Williams has shown over his career that he can win with varying personnel. The idea perpetrated on this board that he can only succeed if he has an All American type PG and C both of whom came to college fully developed on arrival is a myth.

Well, I actually don't dislike Roy all that much. And while it's true I have an interest in perceiving Roy as fumbling in certain narrow ways, the UNC fans I know that believe in this theory and its cousins clearly do not have that interest (not that either of those things has any relevance here). Bottom line: variants of this theory will probably continue to pop up short of some sort of convincing counter-theory-- people abhor events that "just happen." Speculating about them is just what fan boards do. Roy's cyclical team stumbles at UNC are entertaining and fertile fodder for such discussions.

So, I concede. My theory isn't convincing. What's yours?

Maybe that coaches just screw the pooch every once in a while badly no matter how good they are (unless they're named "K")? Some systems are more prone to collapse than others?

The problem with statements like these is that they are cliches that seem to beg the question to some extent, although answering those questions would be new ground. (Why IS Roy having these occasional stumbles? Why IS his system more prone to collapse than, say, Duke's?).

Again, anything new you have to add to the subject would be interesting.

[DukieInKansas]

Interesting discussion. I have nothing to add other than the title of this thread just makes me smile. :D


9F

[Kedsy]

Roy's cyclical team stumbles at UNC are entertaining and fertile fodder for such discussions.

So, I concede. My theory isn't convincing. What's yours?

Well, first of all, I'm not sure we have enough data points to call what's happened "cyclical team stumbles." So far, Roy has had one bad year (2010). 2012-13 looks like it could be another bad season for the Heels, but right now UNC is 10-3 and ranked #34 by Pomeroy, so it's not like they're a lock to flop. I imagine some people consider 2006 a down year for Heeldom, what with "only" a 23-8 record, final AP rank of #10 and 2nd round NCAAT exit, but personally I think that's a stretch. Likewise, Roy's first year at UNC (2004) showed a subpar 19-11 record and another 2nd round NCAAT exit, but you couldn't expect much more as he attempted to leech out the poison of the Doh years.

Putting aside 2004, the other three seasons in question do have something in common -- the loss of four (or more) starters from the previous season. That hasn't happened to Duke in the 21st century (I didn't check further back than 1999). The closest we've come in the past 13 years is 2006-07, after we lost three starters and the remaining two were both rising sophomores, and frankly we all know how that turned out for us.

In today's climate, it's really hard to keep guys who deserve to start on the bench. Maybe you can get one or two to buy in, but most of the top kids will either go elsewhere if they see they'll be a bench player or transfer after it happens. If you lose four starters, the guys you have left at a program like UNC or Duke are probably good, solid rotation players but not stars. If you don't bring in multiple top ten freshmen, your team probably won't be nearly as good as the fans expect. None of Carolina's current freshmen were ranked in the top 25 by RSCI (Paige is their top recruit at #28), so the loss of four starters should be really hard for them to overcome. In 2009-10, they had one incoming top ten recruit (although he weighed about 19 pounds so he wasn't necessarily ready for high level competition) and nobody else in the top 20 (Strickland was #24), so again it was awfully hard for them to compensate for losing four starters. In 2006, UNC's freshmen included a top 5 guy and a top 15 guy, and the top 5 guy had one of the best freshmen years in ACC history, so that team overachieved, although I guess some Heel fans might consider the early NCAAT exit a minor disappointment.

[COYS]

Well, first of all, I'm not sure we have enough data points to call what's happened "cyclical team stumbles." So far, Roy has had one bad year (2010). 2012-13 looks like it could be another bad season for the Heels, but right now UNC is 10-3 and ranked #34 by Pomeroy, so it's not like they're a lock to flop. I imagine some people consider 2006 a down year for Heeldom, what with "only" a 23-8 record, final AP rank of #10 and 2nd round NCAAT exit, but personally I think that's a stretch. Likewise, Roy's first year at UNC (2004) showed a subpar 19-11 record and another 2nd round NCAAT exit, but you couldn't expect much more as he attempted to leech out the poison of the Doh years.

Putting aside 2004, the other three seasons in question do have something in common -- the loss of four (or more) starters from the previous season. That hasn't happened to Duke in the 21st century (I didn't check further back than 1999). The closest we've come in the past 13 years is 2006-07, after we lost three starters and the remaining two were both rising sophomores, and frankly we all know how that turned out for us.

In today's climate, it's really hard to keep guys who deserve to start on the bench. Maybe you can get one or two to buy in, but most of the top kids will either go elsewhere if they see they'll be a bench player or transfer after it happens. If you lose four starters, the guys you have left at a program like UNC or Duke are probably good, solid rotation players but not stars. If you don't bring in multiple top ten freshmen, your team probably won't be nearly as good as the fans expect. None of Carolina's current freshmen were ranked in the top 25 by RSCI (Paige is their top recruit at #28), so the loss of four starters should be really hard for them to overcome. In 2009-10, they had one incoming top ten recruit (although he weighed about 19 pounds so he wasn't necessarily ready for high level competition) and nobody else in the top 20 (Strickland was #24), so again it was awfully hard for them to compensate for losing four starters. In 2006, UNC's freshmen included a top 5 guy and a top 15 guy, and the top 5 guy had one of the best freshmen years in ACC history, so that team overachieved, although I guess some Heel fans might consider the early NCAAT exit a minor disappointment.

This analysis is right on. Cody Zeller is a recent example of a kid that decided to make his own mark somewhere else rather than sit behind his older brother and John Henson for a year. A sophomore Zeller would make this year's UNC team look totally different, most likely. I love to rag on Roy and UNC. I do think that K is probably a bit better at adapting his style of play to fit his teams. It is even possible that Roy has only recently become dependent on his fast break offense recently simply because he's gotten used to having a Felton, Lawson, or Marshall to start the engine, leaving him a little more baffled when he's stuck with Frasor, Paige, or LDII. In reality, though, UNC's team simply isn't as talented as it was last year or the year before. It should be no surprise that they've suffered some early season defeats. I'd love it if the wheels fell off, but I think it more likely that we'll see a team that steadies itself and has what most college fans would call a very solid season when it is all said and done. The '09-'10 season was an aberration on Roy's resume. I'd be surprised if it happened again.

[sporthenry]

Well, first of all, I'm not sure we have enough data points to call what's happened "cyclical team stumbles." So far, Roy has had one bad year (2010). 2012-13 looks like it could be another bad season for the Heels, but right now UNC is 10-3 and ranked #34 by Pomeroy, so it's not like they're a lock to flop. I imagine some people consider 2006 a down year for Heeldom, what with "only" a 23-8 record, final AP rank of #10 and 2nd round NCAAT exit, but personally I think that's a stretch. Likewise, Roy's first year at UNC (2004) showed a subpar 19-11 record and another 2nd round NCAAT exit, but you couldn't expect much more as he attempted to leech out the poison of the Doh years.

Putting aside 2004, the other three seasons in question do have something in common -- the loss of four (or more) starters from the previous season. That hasn't happened to Duke in the 21st century (I didn't check further back than 1999). The closest we've come in the past 13 years is 2006-07, after we lost three starters and the remaining two were both rising sophomores, and frankly we all know how that turned out for us.

In today's climate, it's really hard to keep guys who deserve to start on the bench. Maybe you can get one or two to buy in, but most of the top kids will either go elsewhere if they see they'll be a bench player or transfer after it happens. If you lose four starters, the guys you have left at a program like UNC or Duke are probably good, solid rotation players but not stars. If you don't bring in multiple top ten freshmen, your team probably won't be nearly as good as the fans expect. None of Carolina's current freshmen were ranked in the top 25 by RSCI (Paige is their top recruit at #28), so the loss of four starters should be really hard for them to overcome. In 2009-10, they had one incoming top ten recruit (although he weighed about 19 pounds so he wasn't necessarily ready for high level competition) and nobody else in the top 20 (Strickland was #24), so again it was awfully hard for them to compensate for losing four starters. In 2006, UNC's freshmen included a top 5 guy and a top 15 guy, and the top 5 guy had one of the best freshmen years in ACC history, so that team overachieved, although I guess some Heel fans might consider the early NCAAT exit a minor disappointment.

I mean I don't think UNC will be 2010 bad again. And I wouldn't consider 2006 a down year necessarily but I think you'll see a UNC team that at best is borderline ranked all year and will most likely be a 6-8 seed (like Duke in 2007). I'd say that is a down year especially when you come in with they hype of a top 10-15 team. Sure, they were overrated but that has to come in to the overall perception as some thought they might win the ACC.

As far as 2006, as I said I wouldn't call it a disappointing year and using NCAAT success as a Duke fan will lead to a lot of disappointment. I'd say the regular season is a better indicator of a team's success. Like last year's Duke team over performed a bit last year while in the tourney they underperformed (granted without Kelly), so I wouldn't call the year a complete disappointment although sometimes it feels that way.

[Ian]

This is probably a discussion for another time, but I think assist-to-turnover ratio is a silly statistic and should be done away with in basketball conversation (which is why I phrased it as Drew having a high turnover rate, rather than a low A/T ratio). An assist is not the opposite of a turnover - if anything, a steal is.

I completely disagree. An assist is a very successful pass that led to a made basket, a TO is a very unsuccessful pass that led to a loss of possession. They are the polar ends of what could result from a pass, thus the ratio is a good indicate of how good a passer someone is. If someone has a low turnover rate, but also a low assist rate, then their low turnover rate is not all the impressive to me, because the are overly cautious and their passes with low chances of turnover also have a low chance of yielding a positive result. Is the assist to turnover ratio a perfect stat? No. But as a quick and easy stat to gauge the effectiveness of someone as a ball-handler/passer, it's very useful.

[Kedsy]

I completely disagree. An assist is a very successful pass that led to a made basket, a TO is a very unsuccessful pass that led to a loss of possession. They are the polar ends of what could result from a pass, thus the ratio is a good indicate of how good a passer someone is. If someone has a low turnover rate, but also a low assist rate, then their low turnover rate is not all the impressive to me, because the are overly cautious and their passes with low chances of turnover also have a low chance of yielding a positive result. Is the assist to turnover ratio a perfect stat? No. But as a quick and easy stat to gauge the effectiveness of someone as a ball-handler/passer, it's very useful.

Well, that's not entirely accurate, is it? A turnover could be the result of a poor pass, but it also could be a poor catch. It could be dribbling off one's foot or being stripped from behind. Or stepping out of bounds. It could be a traveling violation or an offensive foul (I think -- I'm not 100% about the offensive foul being counted as a turnover). Also, because assists are so subjective and may or may not count if the recipient makes a move or dribbles after he gets the ball, and certainly doesn't count if he makes a second pass leading to a made basket, or if he's fouled while shooting and makes two free throws, the overall ratio is even more suspect as a measure of how good a passer you are.

Thinking out loud, though, I think what you may really be trying to say is a low turnover rate is not impressive if a player never handles the ball. Maybe a usage/turnover ratio might be better?

[sporthenry]

Well, that's not entirely accurate, is it? A turnover could be the result of a poor pass, but it also could be a poor catch. It could be dribbling off one's foot or being stripped from behind. Or stepping out of bounds. It could be a traveling violation or an offensive foul (I think -- I'm not 100% about the offensive foul being counted as a turnover). Also, because assists are so subjective and may or may not count if the recipient makes a move or dribbles after he gets the ball, and certainly doesn't count if he makes a second pass leading to a made basket, or if he's fouled while shooting and makes two free throws, the overall ratio is even more suspect as a measure of how good a passer you are.

Thinking out loud, though, I think what you may really be trying to say is a low turnover rate is not impressive if a player never handles the ball. Maybe a usage/turnover ratio might be better?

An offensive foul is in fact a turnover. I also think the difference between a live ball and dead ball turnover are immense but I've never really seen anything or anyone try to discern the two. Perhaps it would be completely correlated with overall turnover rate but getting your pocket picked 30 feet from the basket is the worst turnover while a bad pass on the perimeter is almost as bad while a bad entry pass won't always lead to a break and a pass out of bounds never leads to a break.

[Newton_14]

Well, that's not entirely accurate, is it? A turnover could be the result of a poor pass, but it also could be a poor catch. It could be dribbling off one's foot or being stripped from behind. Or stepping out of bounds. It could be a traveling violation or an offensive foul (I think -- I'm not 100% about the offensive foul being counted as a turnover). Also, because assists are so subjective and may or may not count if the recipient makes a move or dribbles after he gets the ball, and certainly doesn't count if he makes a second pass leading to a made basket, or if he's fouled while shooting and makes two free throws, the overall ratio is even more suspect as a measure of how good a passer you are.

Thinking out loud, though, I think what you may really be trying to say is a low turnover rate is not impressive if a player never handles the ball. Maybe a usage/turnover ratio might be better?

Offensive fouls do count as turnovers, as do 3 second violations, closely guarded 5 second violations, and shot clock violations. Basically when the defensive team gets the ball back in other way than a missed shot from the offense, it is a turnover on the offense.

[Newton_14]

This analysis is right on. Cody Zeller is a recent example of a kid that decided to make his own mark somewhere else rather than sit behind his older brother and John Henson for a year. A sophomore Zeller would make this year's UNC team look totally different, most likely. I love to rag on Roy and UNC. I do think that K is probably a bit better at adapting his style of play to fit his teams. It is even possible that Roy has only recently become dependent on his fast break offense recently simply because he's gotten used to having a Felton, Lawson, or Marshall to start the engine, leaving him a little more baffled when he's stuck with Frasor, Paige, or LDII. In reality, though, UNC's team simply isn't as talented as it was last year or the year before. It should be no surprise that they've suffered some early season defeats. I'd love it if the wheels fell off, but I think it more likely that we'll see a team that steadies itself and has what most college fans would call a very solid season when it is all said and done. The '09-'10 season was an aberration on Roy's resume. I'd be surprised if it happened again.

Just one small enhancement to your post above. Roy's fascination with breakneck speed on offense actually started in the 05/06 season when he had a very young team including Freshman PG Bobby "I can only shoot at Cameron Indoor Stadium" Frasor. Dean was still of sound mind back in those days and disagreed with Roy's approach. Dean felt they should slow things down to limit mistakes and shorten games. Roy went against his famed mentor and came up with the idea that the best way to counter the youth and the expected mistakes was to create as many possessions per game as possible. It actually worked too. Despite averaging 20 TO's per game, that team finished 22-8 and second in the ACC.

When Lawson, Wright, and Ellington came aboard a year later, it worked even better given that Lawson was a jet, who was superior to Frasor, and he had more horses with his two fellow freshman, along with sophomore's Hanswalk, Danny Green, and Ginyard. A good friend of mine who is a UNC fan went to an open practice that year and said that Ol Roy darn near broke his arm with the constant windmill motion begging the players to go faster and faster.

He hasn't stopped windmilling since. (Hasn't called many timeouts either :) )

[OldPhiKap]

By the way, do you know what today is?

It's yet another day that Duke is #1, and that unc us out of the top 25.

Just sayin'.




(Props to Catfish, many years ago, who started such a thought)

[licc85]

This analysis is right on. Cody Zeller is a recent example of a kid that decided to make his own mark somewhere else rather than sit behind his older brother and John Henson for a year. A sophomore Zeller would make this year's UNC team look totally different, most likely. I love to rag on Roy and UNC. I do think that K is probably a bit better at adapting his style of play to fit his teams. It is even possible that Roy has only recently become dependent on his fast break offense recently simply because he's gotten used to having a Felton, Lawson, or Marshall to start the engine, leaving him a little more baffled when he's stuck with Frasor, Paige, or LDII. In reality, though, UNC's team simply isn't as talented as it was last year or the year before. It should be no surprise that they've suffered some early season defeats. I'd love it if the wheels fell off, but I think it more likely that we'll see a team that steadies itself and has what most college fans would call a very solid season when it is all said and done. The '09-'10 season was an aberration on Roy's resume. I'd be surprised if it happened again.

Understatement of the year.

[TruBlu]

After the loss to UVA, UNC will not only be out of the top 25, they will be out of the "others receiving votes".

[Des Esseintes]

Just one small enhancement to your post above. Roy's fascination with breakneck speed on offense actually started in the 05/06 season when he had a very young team including Freshman PG Bobby "I can only shoot at Cameron Indoor Stadium" Frasor. Dean was still of sound mind back in those days and disagreed with Roy's approach. Dean felt they should slow things down to limit mistakes and shorten games. Roy went against his famed mentor and came up with the idea that the best way to counter the youth and the expected mistakes was to create as many possessions per game as possible. It actually worked too. Despite averaging 20 TO's per game, that team finished 22-8 and second in the ACC.

When Lawson, Wright, and Ellington came aboard a year later, it worked even better given that Lawson was a jet, who was superior to Frasor, and he had more horses with his two fellow freshman, along with sophomore's Hanswalk, Danny Green, and Ginyard. A good friend of mine who is a UNC fan went to an open practice that year and said that Ol Roy darn near broke his arm with the constant windmill motion begging the players to go faster and faster.

He hasn't stopped windmilling since. (Hasn't called many timeouts either :) )

That's a wonderful bit of history I hadn't heard before--one that also points to Roy as a deserved innovator of the game. Still, I think it is a stretch to say he discovered a "fascination" with speed in 2005. I was grew up a K-State fan hating Roy's Jayhawks. Many of his squads were built around speed. In particular, those from the Kirk Hinrich years ran a devastating secondary break. They regularly fastbreaked successfully off of made baskets. I will always be grateful to Carmelo for denying that team in the final.

[bedeviled]

Here's a Sports Illustrated story (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1104040/1/index.htm) (2007) briefly reviewing Williams' secondary break. Some of it is dated, but there's some interesting stuff with props to Williams for teaching Dean Smith a thing or two:

The secondary break has evolved in fits and starts over the years since Smith coined the term in 1964...[snipped a little]...For years Smith's teams took the ball baseline and then swung it quickly around the perimeter, always looking for passes to the low post, and in 1982 Williams suggested adding the back screen for the post player at the top of the key. (He now jokingly calls it "my entire contribution to North Carolina basketball in 10 years" as an assistant.) But Williams began shedding his conservatism once he took the Kansas job in 1988, finding success by adding another Ol' Roy wrinkle, an interior lateral screen (code name: Finish It) that Smith had junked out of frustration the year before. ( Smith showed Williams the ultimate in professional respect by installing the play himself the following season.) Meanwhile the biggest change in what became known as "the Kansas break" took place in the mid-1990s when point guard Jacque Vaughn began running it at warp speed, increasing the number of possessions per game--and, in turn, Williams argues, the Jayhawks' chances to maximize the superior talent of Paul Pierce and Raef LaFrentz.

[ChillinDuke]

After the loss to UVA, UNC will not only be out of the top 25, they will be out of the "others receiving votes".

Unfortunately, this didn't quite happen. UNC received 4 votes (versus 38 last week).

Reasonable?

Additionally, UVA did not receive any votes either, leaving NC St as the only other ACC team ranked and Maryland as the only other ACC team receiving votes at 29 of them.

- Chillin

[COYS]

Unfortunately, this didn't quite happen. UNC received 4 votes (versus 38 last week).

Reasonable?

Additionally, UVA did not receive any votes either, leaving NC St as the only other ACC team ranked and Maryland as the only other ACC team receiving votes at 29 of them.

- Chillin

I think voters are (justifiably) skeptical about Maryland's schedule. They narrowly lost to a UK team that is still dangerous, but not nearly as good as last year's UK squad. Otherwise, they have yet to play another tournament worthy team. KenPom has them at #50, many spots down from NC State and UNC. The Terps will have to get off to a hot start in conference play to start moving up the rankings.

While UNC fans shouldn't be too concerned about losing at UVA (they have a legitimately good team this year and it may prove to be one of Duke's toughest match-ups), their schedule is not very friendly this season. They are going to have to win a few of their "tough" games if they want to avoid sweating through the selection show on selection sunday.

[sporthenry]

I think voters are (justifiably) skeptical about Maryland's schedule. They narrowly lost to a UK team that is still dangerous, but not nearly as good as last year's UK squad. Otherwise, they have yet to play another tournament worthy team. KenPom has them at #50, many spots down from NC State and UNC. The Terps will have to get off to a hot start in conference play to start moving up the rankings.

While UNC fans shouldn't be too concerned about losing at UVA (they have a legitimately good team this year and it may prove to be one of Duke's toughest match-ups), their schedule is not very friendly this season. They are going to have to win a few of their "tough" games if they want to avoid sweating through the selection show on selection sunday.

Well this is the problem with polls. We don't run into it too much with college basketball but it isn't completely gone. Certainly if Maryland had UNC across their shirts, they'd be ranked and if UNC had Maryland across their shirt, they wouldn't get any votes. I guess some of it is kinda justified b/c of the coach and the blue blood's ability to rebound but they don't really have an NCAAT resume at the moment.

[OldPhiKap]

Ahem.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

[Dev11]

Ahem.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

According to the N&O UNC beat reporter via Twitter, John Feinstein was the only AP voter to give UNC a vote. The Duke homer part of my brain is exploding.

[Kedsy]

According to the N&O UNC beat reporter via Twitter, John Feinstein was the only AP voter to give UNC a vote. The Duke homer part of my brain is exploding.

Well, UNC got 3 votes in the AP poll this week, so the N&O guy has counting issues, if nothing else.

[Dev11]

Well, UNC got 3 votes in the AP poll this week, so the N&O guy has counting issues, if nothing else.

Nah, those are points, and UNC was his #23 pick, which is worth 3 points provided a #1 vote is worth 25 and on down.

[moonpie23]

i learned a long time ago not to laugh at unc....they will prove themselves a thorn to us before the season is over....

[oldnavy]

i learned a long time ago not to laugh at unc....they will prove themselves a thorn to us before the season is over....

Maybe, but I dont think so. I have had time to digest some of their games and they are just not very good. In fact, I will say that they are at times very bad. They will have moments when they play well, but overall - against decent competition, they are anemic.

I should make the standard disclaimer that when Duke and UNC play ANYTHING can happen, but based on talent alone we should not lose to them this year. But I will be very disappointed if we do not sweep them.

[Furniture]

Old Navy. Did you watch UNC Saturday? I thought they looked good.

[oldnavy]

Old Navy. Did you watch UNC Saturday? I thought they looked good.

I watched the whole game. I will have to disagree with you. I thought UNC looked bad and played stupid ball in the second half, allowing UofM to cut the lead in half. The thing was Maryland looked pathetic and not because of UNC. I have rarly seen DI guards just lose dribbles or make passes to the other team with the frequency that Marylands guards did.

I will say this, UNC rebounded well, but again that was in part to Maryland being dumb on the boards and not hustling. This was the first time I have seen Alex Len play, I was NOT impressed at all. Maybe he had a bad game, but if he is Maryland's hope... they are going to have a long ACC season!

Even with how poorly Maryland played, and they played really, really bad UNC could only manage 62 points and a 10 point win. How on earth Maryland beat NCSU is beyond me and really tics me off at NCSU!

I have seen UNC play one "good" game this year and that was the UNLV game.

So, no I am now going on record to say UNC is not a good team this year, and I think they will be fortunate to finish anywhere above 4th place in the ACC and that is only because most of the rest of the league is weak as well.

[Kedsy]

So, no I am now going on record to say UNC is not a good team this year, and I think they will be fortunate to finish anywhere above 4th place in the ACC and that is only because most of the rest of the league is weak as well.

Well, according to Pomeroy, UNC is the 5th best team in the ACC. So we shouldn't expect them to finish higher than 4th. Frankly, even if UNC was the team people thought they were in the pre-season, they'd be hard-pressed to finish higher than 4th. Compare them player-by-player to Duke, NC State, or Miami, and you shouldn't come out thinking UNC is clearly better than any of them.

[cptnflash]

According to the N&O UNC beat reporter via Twitter, John Feinstein was the only AP voter to give UNC a vote. The Duke homer part of my brain is exploding.

Feinstein proved that he doesn't actually follow college basketball when he voted Michigan #1 over us in week 7, when we were 9-0 with the best SOS of any major conference team. Just ignore him.

[Furniture]

I watched the whole game. I will have to disagree with you. I thought UNC looked bad and played stupid ball in the second half.

I am a little bit of a basketball novice. I have only been watching it four the last 4/5 years and I never played it myself (grew up in the UK). So I will take it from you and hope and prey that you are correct.
Cheers.

[-jk]

I am a little bit of a basketball novice. I have only been watching it four the last 4/5 years and I never played it myself (grew up in the UK). So I will take it from you and hope and prey that you are correct.
Cheers.

I didn't see the game, but I did see that unc shot 35% for the game, and managed to only score 20 in the second half. That's not formidable basketball. Certainly not to unc standards.

-jk

[NSDukeFan]

I am a little bit of a basketball novice. I have only been watching it four the last 4/5 years and I never played it myself (grew up in the UK). So I will take it from you and hope and prey that you are correct.
Cheers.

You grew up in the University of Kentucky And never watched or played basketball? (; I find that surprising.

[uh_no]

I didn't see the game, but I did see that unc shot 35% for the game, and managed to only score 20 in the second half. That's not formidable basketball. Certainly not to unc standards.

-jk

They played alright first half, and then mailed it in....it should not have been a 10 point game, or whatever the final margin was

[Newton_14]

I am a little bit of a basketball novice. I have only been watching it four the last 4/5 years and I never played it myself (grew up in the UK). So I will take it from you and hope and prey that you are correct.
Cheers.

I will back up Old Navy's comments. I am not sure UNC will be a NCAA Tourney team. They have a lot of weaknesses that true Top 25 teams will exploit. When Jackson Simmons is becoming a rotation player, it is a sign of trouble. I thought it telling in the final 5 minutes of the FSU that Ol Roy left McAdoo (who had 4 Fouls) on the pine and went with Simmons with the game on the line. That would be like K subbing in Todd Z for Mason in the final 5 minutes and leaving Todd in til the end with the outcome hanging in the balance. I know Simmons is probably a better player than Todd but not by a huge margin. Both had offers to play at lesser schools.

I have said before I think Roy needs to move to a 1 in 4 out offense with only one big on the floor to take advantage of the talent on his current team. I suspect though, that based on past history, unless injuries force his hand, he is going to stick with 2 bigs no matter what. Given he doesn't have two quality bigs in terms of starter caliber, I just don't feel they can be successful in the long haul with that set up. McAdoo is the best of the lot, and he has major issues with his game, even if he is putting up decent numbers. He struggles mightily in a halfcourt setting on offense and is a subpar defender. Hubert is not a guy that should be starting on a good quality team. A fairly good defender, but very limited offensively. Brice Johnson has nice offensive skills and scoring ability, but lacks size and toughness, and can't guard his shadow. Joel James has terrible hands, and is very raw offensively. He's also a defensive liability. Then you have Simmons. Solid fundamentals, but lacking in athletic ability.

Going to be an interesting year. I expect them to struggle on the road. At home they will be more competitive, but will still struggle. The better teams should and likely will beat them at the dome, and a few of the lesser teams will give them all they can handle and a couple will sneak out of the dome with a win.

UNC will have a challenging year. I still say they end up with a record somewhere in between their 06 team and their 10 team. I will be shocked if they are not playing on Thursday in the ACC Tourney and needing a couple of wins there to make the Big Dance.

[Wander]

I will back up Old Navy's comments. I am not sure UNC will be a NCAA Tourney team. They have a lot of weaknesses that true Top 25 teams will exploit. When Jackson Simmons is becoming a rotation player, it is a sign of trouble. I thought it telling in the final 5 minutes of the FSU that Ol Roy left McAdoo (who had 4 Fouls) on the pine and went with Simmons with the game on the line. That would be like K subbing in Todd Z for Mason in the final 5 minutes and leaving Todd in til the end with the outcome hanging in the balance. I know Simmons is probably a better player than Todd but not by a huge margin. Both had offers to play at lesser schools.


Well, Duke not only made the NCAA tournament, but got a 1 seed with Reggie Love and to a lesser extent Patrick Johnson getting rotation minutes, so I'm not sure that Simmons playing a few minutes a game is that damning, at least in regards to getting into the field of 60-whatever.

I agree UNC ends up between their 2006 and 2010 seasons - if I had to guess, I'd say they get into the tournament as around a 10 seed (and promptly get crushed by Ole Miss or Wyoming or something in the first round :) )

[FerryFor50]

Well, Duke not only made the NCAA tournament, but got a 1 seed with Reggie Love and to a lesser extent Patrick Johnson getting rotation minutes, so I'm not sure that Simmons playing a few minutes a game is that damning, at least in regards to getting into the field of 60-whatever.

I agree UNC ends up between their 2006 and 2010 seasons - if I had to guess, I'd say they get into the tournament as around a 10 seed (and promptly get crushed by Ole Miss or Wyoming or something in the first round :) )

I'd love to see Creighton get another shot at UNC after last year's defeat in the tourny.

However, I'd love it even more if UNC makes the NIT instead. :-P

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I'd love to see Creighton get another shot at UNC after last year's defeat in the tourny.

UNC might have to wear hockey pads for that potential re-match.

Wouldn't it be cool to see if Duke can find redemption against Lehigh too?...:)

[FerryFor50]

UNC might have to wear hockey pads for that potential re-match.

Wouldn't it be cool to see if Duke can find redemption against Lehigh too?...:)

Definitely, since they wouldn't have to deal with CJ MacCullom....

[Furniture]

They played alright first half, and then mailed it in....it should not have been a 10 point game, or whatever the final margin was

Thinking about it I only did watch most of the first half. They were running away with it so I couldn't bear to watch anymore.....

[gep]

However, I'd love it even more if UNC makes the NIT instead. :-P


Well... I'd love it even more if not even the NIT. But maybe one of those "other" post-season tournaments... if that much:cool:

[cptnflash]

I will back up Old Navy's comments. I am not sure UNC will be a NCAA Tourney team. They have a lot of weaknesses that true Top 25 teams will exploit. When Jackson Simmons is becoming a rotation player, it is a sign of trouble. I thought it telling in the final 5 minutes of the FSU that Ol Roy left McAdoo (who had 4 Fouls) on the pine and went with Simmons with the game on the line. That would be like K subbing in Todd Z for Mason in the final 5 minutes and leaving Todd in til the end with the outcome hanging in the balance. I know Simmons is probably a better player than Todd but not by a huge margin. Both had offers to play at lesser schools.


I don't disagree that UNC is a fringe NCAA tournament team, but your comparison of Simmons & McAdoo vs. Todd & Mason is off the mark. First and foremost, it doesn't give Mason his due. Mason is a deserving national POY contender. James Michael McAdoo is a collosal disappointment that should have gone pro last year. JMM would have been a top 10 pick, a level he's likely to never see again (on every draft board last year, he was the second highest projected pick from UNC after H. Barnes). The thing is, he played so sparingly last year that no one realized he actually isn't very good. This year, there's no hiding it, as his 93.7 offensive efficiency rating will attest (if he was on our roster, he'd be the 3rd worst on our team, only slightly ahead of Alex and Josh). Mason, on the other hand, has dominated against far superior competition. Mason plays more minutes, has a higher usage rate, better efficiency, rebounds much better on both ends, draws more fouls, and blocks more shots. He even has a better free throw shooting percentage, despite his ongoing regression towards his historial perforamance rate. To put it bluntly, Mason is better than JMM by a wide margin in every meaningful facet of the game. It's not even close.

But also - Jackson Simmons has played extremely well, albeit in limited minutes. His ORtg is an other-worldly 132.9, because he makes his twos, draws fouls, makes free throws, and doesn't turn the ball over. He is in no way UNC's version of Todd Z. If anything, I would say Simmons is under-utilized and should play significantly more minutes.

To me, that's the biggest problem with UNC. It's mid-January, and Roy still hasn't figured out who his best players are. He is still starting Dexter Strickland, despite the fact that PJ Hairston is a much better player. Reggie Bullock, who is clearly their best player, has only played 66.6% of the team's minutes so far (by way of comparison, Mason is our best player, and has played 85% of our minutes so far). Desmond Hubert, who usually starts, has played only 28.5% of their minutes (if he's good enough to start, why isn't he good enough to play more than 1/4 of the game).

I recently ran a scatterplot of minutes played vs. PER for both UNC and Duke. Ours has a nicely upward sloping line and a reasonably tight distribution (p=0.55). UNC's is literally a mess of dots with no meaningful correlation at all and a line that slopes slightly downward. Ours looks like intelligent distribution of minutes, theirs looks like a Rorschach test.

[oldnavy]

Well, according to Pomeroy, UNC is the 5th best team in the ACC. So we shouldn't expect them to finish higher than 4th. Frankly, even if UNC was the team people thought they were in the pre-season, they'd be hard-pressed to finish higher than 4th. Compare them player-by-player to Duke, NC State, or Miami, and you shouldn't come out thinking UNC is clearly better than any of them.

I'm glad to hear that Pomeroy agrees with me :D. Just kidding, but seriously, I have no idea where Pomroy has anyone ranked. I figure his stats must be very good since a lot of people refer to them, but I don't visit his site.

I am just making an observation after watching some ACC ball this year, and watching UNC closely for a couple of games.

Part of UNC's problem is lack of solid post play, but like the above poster Cptflash says a lot is the willy nilly rotation that Ol Roy uses... I doubt that this UNC team will be a factor this year.

[COYS]

I have said before I think Roy needs to move to a 1 in 4 out offense with only one big on the floor to take advantage of the talent on his current team. I suspect though, that based on past history, unless injuries force his hand, he is going to stick with 2 bigs no matter what. Given he doesn't have two quality bigs in terms of starter caliber, I just don't feel they can be successful in the long haul with that set up. McAdoo is the best of the lot, and he has major issues with his game, even if he is putting up decent numbers. He struggles mightily in a halfcourt setting on offense and is a subpar defender. Hubert is not a guy that should be starting on a good quality team. A fairly good defender, but very limited offensively. Brice Johnson has nice offensive skills and scoring ability, but lacks size and toughness, and can't guard his shadow. Joel James has terrible hands, and is very raw offensively. He's also a defensive liability. Then you have Simmons. Solid fundamentals, but lacking in athletic ability.



This is an accurate post. What I think is really strange about Roy's rotations this year is that Bullock is about the best possible guard you could have on your team if your team is better off putting one of it's SG or SF at the PF spot. He's a great rebounder, good leaper, and at 6'7'', isn't even giving much up in height to many college PFs. What he would give up on the defensive end, he'd probably more than make up for on the offensive end where opposing PF will have to chase him around the three point line, which will clear more space for Bullock and others to drive as well as make it even easier for Bullock to get his three point shots off. There are years when a team's roster necessitates that the team play guys even if they're not quite ready. However, I think Bullock would make a formidable makeshift PF if Roy chose to use him that way. It seems crazy not to give the big guys a little more time to develop by only playing one of them with 4 guards for extended minutes in every game.

[oldnavy]

This is an accurate post. What I think is really strange about Roy's rotations this year is that Bullock is about the best possible guard you could have on your team if your team is better off putting one of it's SG or SF at the PF spot. He's a great rebounder, good leaper, and at 6'7'', isn't even giving much up in height to many college PFs. What he would give up on the defensive end, he'd probably more than make up for on the offensive end where opposing PF will have to chase him around the three point line, which will clear more space for Bullock and others to drive as well as make it even easier for Bullock to get his three point shots off. There are years when a team's roster necessitates that the team play guys even if they're not quite ready. However, I think Bullock would make a formidable makeshift PF if Roy chose to use him that way. It seems crazy not to give the big guys a little more time to develop by only playing one of them with 4 guards for extended minutes in every game.

It is a little amusing to me to watch Roy substitute during a game. I have often just sat there and shook my head when I see him motion to bring in subs. I remember a specific game back in 2010 when they were struggling. It was a rare time that Ginyard was having a hot hand on offense (I forget who they were playing), but Ginyard had hit something like three jumpers in a row and UNC had the momentum. Next whistle, Ginyard is going to the bench and I believe one of the Wear brothers were coming in. Needless to say, all the MO went out the window and UNC lost eventually lost the game.

This happens often if you pay attention to UNC games. It just seems like a set in stone rotation of minutes regardless of game situation. There may be more to it than I see, but for the life of me I cannot explain some of the subs when they happen....

[Newton_14]

I don't disagree that UNC is a fringe NCAA tournament team, but your comparison of Simmons & McAdoo vs. Todd & Mason is off the mark. First and foremost, it doesn't give Mason his due. Mason is a deserving national POY contender. James Michael McAdoo is a collosal disappointment that should have gone pro last year. JMM would have been a top 10 pick, a level he's likely to never see again (on every draft board last year, he was the second highest projected pick from UNC after H. Barnes). The thing is, he played so sparingly last year that no one realized he actually isn't very good. This year, there's no hiding it, as his 93.7 offensive efficiency rating will attest (if he was on our roster, he'd be the 3rd worst on our team, only slightly ahead of Alex and Josh). Mason, on the other hand, has dominated against far superior competition. Mason plays more minutes, has a higher usage rate, better efficiency, rebounds much better on both ends, draws more fouls, and blocks more shots. He even has a better free throw shooting percentage, despite his ongoing regression towards his historial perforamance rate. To put it bluntly, Mason is better than JMM by a wide margin in every meaningful facet of the game. It's not even close.

But also - Jackson Simmons has played extremely well, albeit in limited minutes. His ORtg is an other-worldly 132.9, because he makes his twos, draws fouls, makes free throws, and doesn't turn the ball over. He is in no way UNC's version of Todd Z. If anything, I would say Simmons is under-utilized and should play significantly more minutes.

To me, that's the biggest problem with UNC. It's mid-January, and Roy still hasn't figured out who his best players are. He is still starting Dexter Strickland, despite the fact that PJ Hairston is a much better player. Reggie Bullock, who is clearly their best player, has only played 66.6% of the team's minutes so far (by way of comparison, Mason is our best player, and has played 85% of our minutes so far). Desmond Hubert, who usually starts, has played only 28.5% of their minutes (if he's good enough to start, why isn't he good enough to play more than 1/4 of the game).

I recently ran a scatterplot of minutes played vs. PER for both UNC and Duke. Ours has a nicely upward sloping line and a reasonably tight distribution (p=0.55). UNC's is literally a mess of dots with no meaningful correlation at all and a line that slopes slightly downward. Ours looks like intelligent distribution of minutes, theirs looks like a Rorschach test.

Don't over analyze the point I was making. I was in no way suggesting that McAdoo is anywhere near the caliber of Mason. (He isn't). I also recognize that Simmons is a better skilled player than Todd, though both are similar in the type of offers they had on the table before deciding it would be more fun to sit on the bench at an elite D1 school. All you say above is accurate, but I was not making a case against anything you stated. I was simply making a point about Roy, and using Duke as the example due to being more familiar with Duke than other teams in the country.

The real point I was making there, is it speaks volumes about the state of UNC's post play and post players, that Roy left McAdoo on the bench for the final 5 minutes of a road game, with the game hanging in the balance, and instead stuck with Simmons, who was basically put on the team as a quality practice player. It worked out and they won the game. But, if the other post guys, including the supposed star of the bunch, are so bad that Roy feels the need to go with Simmons in a game like that, it spells trouble down the road against quality teams. That was my point. Sorry if that did not resonate.

[JasonEvans]

James Michael McAdoo is a collosal disappointment that should have gone pro last year. JMM would have been a top 10 pick, a level he's likely to never see again (on every draft board last year, he was the second highest projected pick from UNC after H. Barnes). The thing is, he played so sparingly last year that no one realized he actually isn't very good. This year, there's no hiding it, as his 93.7 offensive efficiency rating will attest (if he was on our roster, he'd be the 3rd worst on our team, only slightly ahead of Alex and Josh).

While most of us would heartily agree with your assessment of JMM's lousy year, it seems some NBADraft projections are not quite in full agreement. Many folks still see JMM as a mid-first rounder. While that is a bit worse than he would have done last year, it is not the free-fall that his play this year would seem to indicate.


NBADraft,net - Mason #15, JMM #16
HoopsHype - Mason #11, JMM #20
ESPN/Chad Forde - Mason #12, JMM #20
DraftExpress - Mason #11, JMM #17

To be honest, I am surprised JMM has stayed that high in the draft pecking order. I would not be at all surprised to see him continue to drop over the next couple months unless he turns his game around a bit.

A decent comparison might be Josh McRoberts. Josh was extremely highly regarded by the NBA after a freshman campaign in which he was merely asked to be one of several players to complement the outstanding senior leadership of JJ and Shelden. Most draft experts felt McBob would be a mid-late lottery pick if he had come out. He chose to stay and had a decent, but quite unspectacular soph season where he struggled taking on a larger leadership role at Duke. After his soph campaign, he turned pro. His draft stock had slipped, but most still saw him as a mid-late first round pick.

Instead, on draft day he slipped all the way into the 2nd round, going with the 7th pick of the 2nd round. Josh struggled early in his NBA career but has developed into a solid reserve and sometimes starter over the past few seasons. He's a decent backup PF-type, currently earning $3 million/season.

I won't be at all surprised if JMM follows a similar path.

-Jason "I am not saying JMM and Josh are similar players, just that their career arcs seem somewhat similar" Evans

[Des Esseintes]

While most of us would heartily agree with your assessment of JMM's lousy year, it seems some NBADraft projections are not quite in full agreement. Many folks still see JMM as a mid-first rounder. While that is a bit worse than he would have done last year, it is not the free-fall that his play this year would seem to indicate.


NBADraft,net - Mason #15, JMM #16
HoopsHype - Mason #11, JMM #20
ESPN/Chad Forde - Mason #12, JMM #20
DraftExpress - Mason #11, JMM #17

To be honest, I am surprised JMM has stayed that high in the draft pecking order. I would not be at all surprised to see him continue to drop over the next couple months unless he turns his game around a bit.

A decent comparison might be Josh McRoberts. Josh was extremely highly regarded by the NBA after a freshman campaign in which he was merely asked to be one of several players to complement the outstanding senior leadership of JJ and Shelden. Most draft experts felt McBob would be a mid-late lottery pick if he had come out. He chose to stay and had a decent, but quite unspectacular soph season where he struggled taking on a larger leadership role at Duke. After his soph campaign, he turned pro. His draft stock had slipped, but most still saw him as a mid-late first round pick.

Instead, on draft day he slipped all the way into the 2nd round, going with the 7th pick of the 2nd round. Josh struggled early in his NBA career but has developed into a solid reserve and sometimes starter over the past few seasons. He's a decent backup PF-type, currently earning $3 million/season.

I won't be at all surprised if JMM follows a similar path.

-Jason "I am not saying JMM and Josh are similar players, just that their career arcs seem somewhat similar" Evans

And--not that you are saying otherwise--for the most part, Josh was drafted where he should have been. He's stuck around in the NBA, and many second rounders do not even make their initial team, so you could argue a late first round pick might have been deserved. Still, the revision of his stock appears largely correct.

[moonpie23]

meanwhile........duke gets stomped and unc seems to be putting it together....

[CDu]

meanwhile........duke gets stomped and unc seems to be putting it together....

To be fair, since losing to Miami, UNC has beaten a bad FSU team, a bad Maryland team (at home), and a bad Ga Tech team (at home). I'd hardly call that "putting it together." More accurately, I'd say that they're playing about the same as always. The difference is that they aren't playing a team as organized as UVa or a team as talented as Miami.

This weekend will be UNC's first real test since their Miami loss. If they can keep it close against NC State, THEN I'll say they are putting it together.

[killerleft]

To be fair, since losing to Miami, UNC has beaten a bad FSU team, a bad Maryland team (at home), and a bad Ga Tech team (at home). I'd hardly call that "putting it together." More accurately, I'd say that they're playing about the same as always. The difference is that they aren't playing a team as organized as UVa or a team as talented as Miami.

This weekend will be UNC's first real test since their Miami loss. If they can keep it close against NC State, THEN I'll say they are putting it together.

I tihnk we can agree that Duke is, what, "pulling it apart"? Coach K's got some hard work ahead of him. Thankfully, he's also got a history of putting "Humpty-Dumpty" together again. Hey, there's a Buck Owens song in there somewhere!:o

[oldnavy]

To be fair, since losing to Miami, UNC has beaten a bad FSU team, a bad Maryland team (at home), and a bad Ga Tech team (at home). I'd hardly call that "putting it together." More accurately, I'd say that they're playing about the same as always. The difference is that they aren't playing a team as organized as UVa or a team as talented as Miami.

This weekend will be UNC's first real test since their Miami loss. If they can keep it close against NC State, THEN I'll say they are putting it together.

I agree, but they are winning and winning breads confidence and confidence is what you want a young team like UNC to have. I listened to the UNC game on my way home last night, and it 'sounded' like they are still playing spotty, but are having 'ah ha' moments like PJ Hairstons dunk and those can become infectious.

(note, Montross is not bad, but I can do without Jones whateverhisnameis). It was funny to listen to them call the game, because they called it like UNC played it... one moment they were talking about the dumb turnovers, the next about how much fun it was to watch them play.... they even called the game helter skelter and sloppy, and used the term weird once.

I am hoping for a NCSU beatdown this weekend, but I would not be surprised to see NCSU roll over AGAIN for UNC....

My how things have changed in such a few short weeks.

The good news is that things can change in a few short weeks!!