Duke's Improved Interior Defense

[Billy Dat]

Luke Winn of SI's weekly must-read Power Rankings has the Devils at Number 1 and focuses on our improved interior defense, especially Ryan Kelly:

"Interior defense was not expected to be Duke's strength this season. It lost its sturdiest forward, Miles Plumlee, to graduation, and it was going to have to get by with a thin frontcourt rotation (Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly and Josh Hairston) that allowed opponents to shoot 47.0 percent on the interior last season, ranking 136th nationally in that category. It's quite a surprise, then, that interior D has keyed the Blue Devils' defensive resurgence in 2012-13. Against the most hellacious schedule of any ranked team, they've allowed just 40.8 percent shooting inside the arc -- by far their best rate of the past five seasons (see graphic above)....."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/luke_winn/12/05/power-rankings/index.html#ixzz2ECNRfiZS

[nocilla]

An interesting note is that Luke has UNC, UK, and NCSU ranked 30, 31, and 32.

[MarkD83]

Dividing up defensive or offensive ratings by inside/outside is always a bit misleading. I believe that the reason Duke's interior defense is much better than last year is partially due to the fact that Duke's guard's are making it difficult for opposing teams to get the ball into the post in places that opposing post players can score.

[CDu]

Dividing up defensive or offensive ratings by inside/outside is always a bit misleading. I believe that the reason Duke's interior defense is much better than last year is partially due to the fact that Duke's guard's are making it difficult for opposing teams to get the ball into the post in places that opposing post players can score.

That is certainly a factor. But I'd say that the interior defense has also improved. Most notably Kelly (as Winn notes). His ability to defend guys like Deshaun Thomas is a marked difference from last year.

[MarkD83]

That is certainly a factor. But I'd say that the interior defense has also improved. Most notably Kelly (as Winn notes). His ability to defend guys like Deshaun Thomas is a marked difference from last year.

I am not diminishing the D by Kelly or Plumlee. The interesting tie in is to Barry Jacobs comments about assists. Big men usually score off of assists (note Big Z's pick and roll basket against Delaware). The paucity of assists against Duek means less scoring by big men against Duke.

[loran16]

I am not diminishing the D by Kelly or Plumlee. The interesting tie in is to Barry Jacobs comments about assists. Big men usually score off of assists (note Big Z's pick and roll basket against Delaware). The paucity of assists against Duek means less scoring by big men against Duke.

Except this isn't new to this year. Duke's #1 in opponent's Assist/Field-Goal Made Percentage this year, as many have noted. Duke was #13 LAST YEAR. Really, not sure this is about assists here guys.

[CDu]

Except this isn't new to this year. Duke's #1 in opponent's Assist/Field-Goal Made Percentage this year, as many have noted. Duke was #13 LAST YEAR. Really, not sure this is about assists here guys.

Yeah, I think that the assists thing is interesting, and it does show Duke's focus on preventing assisted buckets. But as you note, we were really good at that last year, too. So something else is going in, in addition to even better defensive pressure on the perimeter. What we're seeing is better defense from our guards, better defense from our bigs (most notably Kelly), and perhaps better cohesion between the perimeter and interior defense, which is resulting in fewer points in the paint.

It should probably also be noted that, to this point, we have not played an opponent with a really good post scorer. Louisville and OSU may turn out to be really good teams, but their scoring strength is on the perimeter. Kentucky is probably not as good as the other two, and their strength offensively also lies away from the basket (unless you count Poythress's putbacks). Minnesota, FGCU, VCU, and GSU fall in the same category.

[Jderf]

It should probably also be noted that, to this point, we have not played an opponent with a really good post scorer. Louisville and OSU may turn out to be really good teams, but their scoring strength is on the perimeter. Kentucky is probably not as good as the other two, and their strength offensively also lies away from the basket (unless you count Poythress's putbacks). Minnesota, FGCU, VCU, and GSU fall in the same category.

But other than Indiana and ourselves, how many teams are out there that even qualify as having a "really good post scorer?" Miami, maybe? Who else?

[pfrduke]

But other than Indiana and ourselves, how many teams are out there that even qualify as having a "really good post scorer?" Miami, maybe? Who else?

NC State.

[CDu]

But other than Indiana and ourselves, how many teams are out there that even qualify as having a "really good post scorer?" Miami, maybe? Who else?

UF (when Young wants to be), Maryland, NC State, Gonzaga, UNLV, Notre Dame, Mississippi, and LSU are examples. But you're right: There aren't that many teams that are great offensively inside. It's kind of a down year for big men.

[bedeviled]

Acronyms:
PiP-FBPiP = Points-in-the-Paint minus Points-in-the-Paint that were classified as Fast Break points.
(PiP-FBPiP)/TP% = Percent of Total Points that were (PiP-FBPiP).





PiP-FBPiP

(PiP-FBPiP)/TP%



2011 (first 8)

26.5

38.06



2011 (last 8)

23.5

35.27



2011

26.35

38.39



2012 (first 8)

26

40.23

[MarkD83]

Acronyms:
PiP-FBPiP = Points-in-the-Paint minus Points-in-the-Paint that were classified as Fast Break points.
(PiP-FBPiP)/TP% = Percent of Total Points that were (PiP-FBPiP).





PiP-FBPiP

(PiP-FBPiP)/TP%



2011 (first 8)

26.5

38.06



2011 (last 8)

23.5

35.27



2011

26.35

38.39



2012 (first 8)

26

40.23




So does this mean we are playing worse defense now than last year? I am having trouble with the meaning of this data.

[bedeviled]

Wow, I thought the last acronyms were silly, but I've outdone myself here!
Unfortunately, I don't have data on missed shots in the paint, so FG% calculations can't be done. But here's another way to look at where opponents production is coming from with respect to points-in-the-paint.

Acronyms:
(PiPFG-FBPiPFG)/FG% = percent of made Fields Goals that were (FG in the Paint but not the result of a play classified as Fast Break).
(PiPFG-FBPiPFG)/2PFG% = percent of made 2-point Field Goals that were (FG in the Paint but not the result of a play classified as Fast Break).





(PiPFG-FBPiPFG)/FG%

(PiPFG-FBPiPFG)/2PFG%



2011 (first 8)

51.78

63.53



2011 (last 8)

47.82

61.58



2011

51.53

62.94



2012 (first 8)

56.27

72.18




EDIT: Haha, MarkD83!! That's why I just posted the table without interpretation!! I figured I would let everyone debate it up!

[Newton_14]

I am an eye test guy first and foremost. Kedsy is my Pomeroy guru, and others like Bedeviled are great providing every stat imaginable. Sometimes though, we really do need to just trust our eyes. Don't misunderstand. I am NOT knocking stats at all. The Pomeroy stuff is great and helpful. It's just that sometimes there isn't a stat to confirm what your eyes are telling you. (Sort of like valuing Tyler Thornton as a player. A lot of Tyler's contributions never show in stats).

My eyes told me in the early games, this team is much better defensively than last season, and in my eyes and mind, it is not really close. Vast improvement across the board. Ball Pressure on the opposing PG? Check. Harassment on the wings? Check. Holding down the fort in the paint? Check.

Not K's best defensive team or anything, but these guys are defending well so far. The freshman including RS-F are all playing solid defense, and all the returnee's from last years team have improved their defense as individuals. Like CDu opined, last year Ryan Kell could not handle Deshawn Thomas, but this year, different story. I honestly see improvement in each in every player with their defense.

All of that has translated into improved team defense. I have to imagine that from the time the final horn blew in Greensboro last March, the focus from that moment to present has been on improving defense. The guys obviously put a lot of work in over the summer to get better at it. If they can sustain it all year, it will carry them a long way.

[bedeviled]

...My eyes told me in the early games, this team is much better defensively than last season...
Oh, I agree with eyes, mind, heart, and calculator. I didn’t mean to imply that our defense is not improved; it most certainly is (I think MarkD83’s comment was tongue-in-cheek). I posted the stats strictly in reference to the stated thought, just upthread, that we are allowing fewer points-in-the-paint this year. It triggered an anxious memory of Louisville, who put up 46 points-in-the-paint without Dieng, but limited recollection of last year. So, I decided to check the numbers.

Alas, research has shown how amazingly flawed our perception and memory are, and anyone doing research knows how easily stats can be manipulated to prove anything. These numbers, though, are straight-forward. What’s not necessarily clear is how all the details fit into the bigger defensive scheme – good, bad, neutral, or random. And, I didn’t feel like speculating at the time. The gestalt, though, is clear, and it is good!