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superdave
11-30-2012, 02:05 PM
Duke came through the first stretch of the season - 7 games in November – undefeated and with a growing sense of self. They are playing really well, appear confident in each other and have beaten three top 5 teams. Looking more deeply, we beat Pomeroy’s current #6 (Louisville), #7 (OSU), #9 (UK), #11 (Minnesota) and #15 (VCU). Our offense is really humming and we’re starting to gel on the defensive end. Everyone is more optimistic about this year's team after our big comeback vs. Ohio State than last year when the Buckeyes thumped us after the Maui tourney win.

Without delay, Phase Deux - Which will be the Delaware through the Davidson game. Final "Pre-Season" games if you will, before the wars of conference play begin (in the last year of the ACC as we currently know it)

Health –
We’ve lost valuable time with Marshall, but he is coming back and he will most likely have some pre-conference games this month to tune up and get a few reps under his belt. Marshall’s return is important for two reasons. First, he provides a skilled big man for Mason and Ryan to practice against. Second, he can spell Mason at the center position and is available in the event of foul trouble. He’ll come in handy vs. Reggie Johnson, Alex Lin and Joel James later this season.

Seth is slowed some but is fighting through it. His ability to play big minutes through the end of the season is a question mark. Coach K is managing the injury by not having Seth practice. December could be an opportunity to give Seth some rest, but there is no indication that is helpful or is even on the table. My assumption here is this is a day to day issue, but will linger all season.

Experience –
We start three seniors. Mason and Seth are 22, and Ryan is 21. That’s grandpa age in CBB. Mason and Ryan played on a National Championship team that grew over the course of the 2010 season, and really dialed in on what they were good at. These guys are tough and will not be rattled. All three of them have been through slumps, disappointments and ugly losses, and all three have had huge games and have carried the team for stretches. This is a core that Coach K believes in, and one that will allow the freshmen and sophomores to grow.

Kedsy did a great job in Phase 0 of showing how Coach K’s teams with three seniors in major roles have been historically successful. The experience factor is really important for this team because of the consistency it brings. But it can be even more important if it fosters the growth of the younger guys and helps them reach their potential earlier than they would on a younger team. We’re reaching some of that potential now, and I’m hoping for even more so we can become a great team.

Defense –
On the ball pressure is greatly improved over last year. This pressure is one of the cornerstones of Coach K defense. If you paid attention to the closing minutes of the first half vs. OSU, Quinn stepped up ball pressure. It was as if he woke up, realized his team lacked energy, then set out to generate energy all by himself. It was a small thing but carried over to the second half in a big way.

Sulaimon provides length and intensity. Tyler throws the other team off rhythm, and plays the passing lanes brilliantly. Ryan has had some A+ games vs. really good opponents, especially against Deshaun Thomas (OSU), and is leading the team in blocks. Mason is rebounding with authority now. All these things are adding up to a defensive unit that is good and appears to be getting better.

The question marks on defense come from the smaller stature of our backcourt. Seth is an undersized 2-guard and Rasheed is often undersized guarding opponents’ 3. We do not have too many NBA prototype 2s and 3s to worry about on our schedule, but this is a weakness that can be exploited if our opponents have the right personnel. This is far more likely to come into play later in the season as opposed to Phase 2 this December.

I would be interested in the comments from others about how this team communicates on defense on the court. Has anyone seen enough of our guys in action the past month to add anything?

Rebounding –
Kedsy discussed Bigness in Phase 0, but I want to focus on rebounding. We are big at the 4 and 5, and elite as well. But while Mason is our rebounder-in-chief (11.0 per game so far), we need a vice-rebounder. Ryan is at 4.9 per game and Sulaimon at 4.3. We are being out-rebounded by 2 per game on the season. While that stat is not alarming, Ohio State’s offensive rebounding performance in the first half was. We also gave up 17 offensive boards to VCU which allowed them to hang around too long.

A good comparison for our current distribution of rebounds might be the 2006 season. Shelden was a dominant rebounder (10.7) and Josh McRoberts was a distant second (5.3). We were out-rebounded by 2.7 per game on the season but still went 32-4.

I expect Ryan to continue to play on the perimeter some on defense and I do not expect his rebounding numbers to jump much. To give Mason some help when we play the three guard lineup, we will need the guards to continue to pitch in like they did in the second half against the Buckeyes. I do expect to see some more of Alex and Amile at the 3 in December, or in the event that Seth misses a game or two. I also expect to see Marshall pick up minutes, which will help. But I think the three guard lineup is our go-to for the bulk of the minutes, and especially during close, late game situations. So our guards have to hit the boards to compensate for the fact that Ryan is not a traditional 4. It’s a tradeoff – more steals and transition buckets, less rebounding. But it’s a tradeoff Coach K has proven to manage well in the past. The second half vs. OSU has me feeling positive about our guards ability to help mitigate this as a major issue.

Who is going to shoot? –
We’re shooting 47.3% from the field including 37.7% from 3. And that is with Ryan Kelly starting the season in a slump and Seth shooting poorly against OSU. Ryan seems to be shooting better (home cooking at Cameron helps) and Seth’s game was an aberration vs a big, physical team. No one expected Rasheed and Quinn to be shooting over 40% from 3, so I think we can be happy to date with our jump-shooting ability. We did go 10 minutes without a field goal last game out, but we got to the free throw line which is a sign of maturity and toughness.

Looking a little further at scoring in general, each of our 5 starters is averaging better than 10 points per game. Gone are the days of the Smith-Scheyer-Singler Big 3 and the two-headed Redick-Williams monster. The last time we had balanced scoring like this was in 2008, but that team was awfully young and did not create the matchup problems this team does. The 2004 Final Four squad (sorry if anyone flinched….we got robbed that year) might be the best comparison to this team. Both teams had an elite freshman, a classic point, an elite scorer, and solid frontcourts. Everybody could score in multiple ways. It’s daring to say, but I think this team could have a higher ceiling than 2004.

Mason was described by an opposing coach as a “load” and Rasheed may be unguardable at the college level by March. Yes, that is a true statement. We have the best distributor we’ve had since Duhon, and he is cold as ice down the stretch. Sorry to Louisville and Ohio State but Quinn ruled you. When Ryan or Seth gets hot, you can ride them until they miss.

Our balance on offense is great – we can play inside-out through Mason. We can drive and kick to our shooters Seth and Ryan. Quinn and Sulaimon can get into the paint, and Seth may do more of that if he’s running on all cylinders. It would be nice to add Alex and Amile to the discussion because both guys can score a lot of ways. Hopefully their confidence and diligence grows this Phase.

Our offense is ranked 3 in the Pomeroy and they are going to get better.

Leadership –
At point guard, Quinn Cook is our emotional leader. He seems to be increasingly vocal. Again, I do not know how well this team talks and communicates with each other on the court. But I suspect that is one of the things we’ll see more of and a lot of that flows through Quinn. With three seniors in the starting lineup, it’s a testament to Quinn how much this sticks out. If Quinn continues to grow and makes this HIS team, this team jumps up a couple of notches.

The Rotation –
Alex Murphy is averaging a couple of first half minutes a game and has two DNPs. Everyone thought he was a big key to this year’s team and would start immediately at the 3. He started the two exhibition games but has played 14 minutes total and is 0-3 from the field since. Amile Jefferson is probably giving us about what people thought he would before the season started – a few high energy minutes per game. I expect both guys to get more minutes in games this Phase than any other portion of the season. They will play because our schedule is not that tough during exams and the holiday break. Will either guy do anything to earn more minutes, or even an integral role? History says no. A good comparison for both guys might be Ryan Kelly’s freshman year. He played in 35 of our 40 games in 2010, and averaged 6 minutes a game. He sniffed the court some, but never was counted on a whole lot. Either could be called upon if we have injuries or if we get into foul trouble. But the rotation likely will not include them for more than token minutes. In fact, it needs to be said that Josh Hairston has played better than Alex and Amile to date. Kudos to Josh for his hard work and for earning those minutes.

Marshall Plumlee on the other hand is likely to crack the rotation. Before he went down, he was said by the coaches to be one of the top 6 guys on this team. Mason is leading the team with 35.1 minutes per game. That’s not ideal for the big guy, and Marshall is the antidote. If he can spell Mason for two first half stretches and one second half stretch per game while rebounding, protecting the rim and throwing his 235lbs around, then he’s got a consistent role on this team. We’ll probably see his first minutes during Phase 2. But this may be one of the shortest benches we’ll ever see at Duke.

As Bob Green said in Phase 1, the coaches will learn a lot about this team. They have to like what they see. Now, can they add a few wrinkles – remember Kyle’s flash post up play or the one-hitters we ran for JJ out of time outs? It’s easy to let up after the tough stretch we had in Phase 1, but this team is hungry after last year’s opening round loss and the young guys are craving minutes on the bench. The competitive fire is there, and that’s great to see.

Super "Go Devils!" Dave

CDu
11-30-2012, 03:30 PM
Health –
We’ve lost valuable time with Marshall, but he is coming back and he will most likely have some pre-conference games this month to tune up and get a few reps under his belt. Marshall’s return is important for two reasons. First, he provides a skilled big man for Mason and Ryan to practice against. Second, he can spell Mason at the center position and is available in the event of foul trouble. He’ll come in handy vs. Reggie Johnson, Alex Lin and Joel James later this season.

Good post, and I'm very much looking forward to what this phase (and the rest) bring. However, I feel compelled to discuss the bolded part. Joel James is averaging 4.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game for UNC so far. And that includes two games against Gardner-Webb, FIU, and Chaminade, in which he averaged 7 points and 6 rebounds. In the 4 games played against decent teams (BCS teams, LBSU, and Butler), James has averaged just 2.3 points and 4.8 rebounds. So I don't expect Joel James to be anything to worry about.

Johnson and Len, on the other hand, ARE worth having an extra body available.

Saratoga2
12-06-2012, 02:32 PM
I look forward to the discussions started by Bob Green and encourage someone at the Moderator level to make and effort to get it started. Phase 1 was about Health, Renewed focuss on defense, Experience, Outside Shooting, PG and Freshman Stars.

I would think phase 2 discussions should also cover health, what with Marshall and Seth recovering from health issues.

In the case of renewed emphasis on defense, the team clearly has made strides along that line. Temple out to challange our guards to stop penetration and make outside shooting difficult.

In the case of experience, the discussion focussed on Seth's value to the team based on his experience. I would think the development of the bench during this easier portion of the schedule would be a main goal. Marshall, Alex and Amile.

There was a concern that our outside shooting would be weak this year, however, there are signs that Ryan is getting his mechanics back, while Rasheed, Quinn and Tyler all can chip in. Seth has always been good, so maybe it will not be a weakness after all.

The PG question certainly has been answered by Quinn stepping forward in a big way. Tyler can handle well enough and even Rasheed shows signs of that capability.

Right now the freshman star we have had the privilege of seeing develop has been Rasheed. There is potentially room for Marshall as a Red shirt to blossom and both Alex and Amile really showed a lot, albeit against a weaker opponent.

Again, I don't feel qualified to start this thread and give it direction, however, I would like to encourage those that can to initiate a new thread.

Kedsy
12-06-2012, 02:37 PM
Again, I don't feel qualified to start this thread and give it direction, however, I would like to encourage those that can to initiate a new thread.

It was done last Friday: www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?29819-Phase-2-2012-2013

Bob Green
12-06-2012, 06:10 PM
Thanks for another great Phase post. I didn't see it posted until today and I am not sure how I overlooked it.




Leadership –
At point guard, Quinn Cook is our emotional leader. He seems to be increasingly vocal. Again, I do not know how well this team talks and communicates with each other on the court. But I suspect that is one of the things we’ll see more of and a lot of that flows through Quinn. With three seniors in the starting lineup, it’s a testament to Quinn how much this sticks out. If Quinn continues to grow and makes this HIS team, this team jumps up a couple of notches.

Super "Go Devils!" Dave

I believe this team is Mason's team; if the team is going to continue their great play and achieve greatness, it is up to Mason to assert himself not only as the go to guy on both ends of the court but also as team leader. I expect Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly will be key leaders this year but ultimately Mason must be THE LEADER.

Again, thanks for the post! I expect it will generate a lot of great discussion.

jay
12-06-2012, 07:35 PM
Duke came through the first stretch of the season - 7 games in November – undefeated and with a growing sense of self. They are playing really well, appear confident in each other and have beaten three top 5 teams. Looking more deeply, we beat Pomeroy’s current #6 (Louisville), #7 (OSU), #9 (UK), #11 (Minnesota) and #15 (VCU). Our offense is really humming and we’re starting to gel on the defensive end. Everyone is more optimistic about this year's team after our big comeback vs. Ohio State than last year when the Buckeyes thumped us after the Maui tourney win.

Without delay, Phase Deux -

Health –
We’ve lost valuable time with Marshall, but he is coming back and he will most likely have some pre-conference games this month to tune up and get a few reps under his belt. Marshall’s return is important for two reasons. First, he provides a skilled big man for Mason and Ryan to practice against. Second, he can spell Mason at the center position and is available in the event of foul trouble. He’ll come in handy vs. Reggie Johnson, Alex Lin and Joel James later this season.

Seth is slowed some but is fighting through it. His ability to play big minutes through the end of the season is a question mark. Coach K is managing the injury by not having Seth practice. December could be an opportunity to give Seth some rest, but there is no indication that is helpful or is even on the table. My assumption here is this is a day to day issue, but will linger all season.

Experience –
We start three seniors. Mason and Seth are 22, and Ryan is 21. That’s grandpa age in CBB. Mason and Ryan played on a National Championship team that grew over the course of the 2010 season, and really dialed in on what they were good at. These guys are tough and will not be rattled. All three of them have been through slumps, disappointments and ugly losses, and all three have had huge games and have carried the team for stretches. This is a core that Coach K believes in, and one that will allow the freshmen and sophomores to grow.

Kedsy did a great job in Phase 0 of showing how Coach K’s teams with three seniors in major roles have been historically successful. The experience factor is really important for this team because of the consistency it brings. But it can be even more important if it fosters the growth of the younger guys and helps them reach their potential earlier than they would on a younger team. We’re reaching some of that potential now, and I’m hoping for even more so we can become a great team.

Defense –
On the ball pressure is greatly improved over last year. This pressure is one of the cornerstones of Coach K defense. If you paid attention to the closing minutes of the first half vs. OSU, Quinn stepped up ball pressure. It was as if he woke up, realized his team lacked energy, then set out to generate energy all by himself. It was a small thing but carried over to the second half in a big way.

Sulaimon provides length and intensity. Tyler throws the other team off rhythm, and plays the passing lanes brilliantly. Ryan has had some A+ games vs. really good opponents, especially against Deshaun Thomas (OSU), and is leading the team in blocks. Mason is rebounding with authority now. All these things are adding up to a defensive unit that is good and appears to be getting better.

The question marks on defense come from the smaller stature of our backcourt. Seth is an undersized 2-guard and Rasheed is often undersized guarding opponents’ 3. We do not have too many NBA prototype 2s and 3s to worry about on our schedule, but this is a weakness that can be exploited if our opponents have the right personnel. This is far more likely to come into play later in the season as opposed to Phase 2 this December.

I would be interested in the comments from others about how this team communicates on defense on the court. Has anyone seen enough of our guys in action the past month to add anything?

Rebounding –
Kedsy discussed Bigness in Phase 0, but I want to focus on rebounding. We are big at the 4 and 5, and elite as well. But while Mason is our rebounder-in-chief (11.0 per game so far), we need a vice-rebounder. Ryan is at 4.9 per game and Sulaimon at 4.3. We are being out-rebounded by 2 per game on the season. While that stat is not alarming, Ohio State’s offensive rebounding performance in the first half was. We also gave up 17 offensive boards to VCU which allowed them to hang around too long.

A good comparison for our current distribution of rebounds might be the 2006 season. Shelden was a dominant rebounder (10.7) and Josh McRoberts was a distant second (5.3). We were out-rebounded by 2.7 per game on the season but still went 32-4.

I expect Ryan to continue to play on the perimeter some on defense and I do not expect his rebounding numbers to jump much. To give Mason some help when we play the three guard lineup, we will need the guards to continue to pitch in like they did in the second half against the Buckeyes. I do expect to see some more of Alex and Amile at the 3 in December, or in the event that Seth misses a game or two. I also expect to see Marshall pick up minutes, which will help. But I think the three guard lineup is our go-to for the bulk of the minutes, and especially during close, late game situations. So our guards have to hit the boards to compensate for the fact that Ryan is not a traditional 4. It’s a tradeoff – more steals and transition buckets, less rebounding. But it’s a tradeoff Coach K has proven to manage well in the past. The second half vs. OSU has me feeling positive about our guards ability to help mitigate this as a major issue.

Who is going to shoot? –
We’re shooting 47.3% from the field including 37.7% from 3. And that is with Ryan Kelly starting the season in a slump and Seth shooting poorly against OSU. Ryan seems to be shooting better (home cooking at Cameron helps) and Seth’s game was an aberration vs a big, physical team. No one expected Rasheed and Quinn to be shooting over 40% from 3, so I think we can be happy to date with our jump-shooting ability. We did go 10 minutes without a field goal last game out, but we got to the free throw line which is a sign of maturity and toughness.

Looking a little further at scoring in general, each of our 5 starters is averaging better than 10 points per game. Gone are the days of the Smith-Scheyer-Singler Big 3 and the two-headed Redick-Williams monster. The last time we had balanced scoring like this was in 2008, but that team was awfully young and did not create the matchup problems this team does. The 2004 Final Four squad (sorry if anyone flinched….we got robbed that year) might be the best comparison to this team. Both teams had an elite freshman, a classic point, an elite scorer, and solid frontcourts. Everybody could score in multiple ways. It’s daring to say, but I think this team could have a higher ceiling than 2004.

Mason was described by an opposing coach as a “load” and Rasheed may be unguardable at the college level by March. Yes, that is a true statement. We have the best distributor we’ve had since Duhon, and he is cold as ice down the stretch. Sorry to Louisville and Ohio State but Quinn ruled you. When Ryan or Seth gets hot, you can ride them until they miss.

Our balance on offense is great – we can play inside-out through Mason. We can drive and kick to our shooters Seth and Ryan. Quinn and Sulaimon can get into the paint, and Seth may do more of that if he’s running on all cylinders. It would be nice to add Alex and Amile to the discussion because both guys can score a lot of ways. Hopefully their confidence and diligence grows this Phase.

Our offense is ranked 3 in the Pomeroy and they are going to get better.

Leadership –
At point guard, Quinn Cook is our emotional leader. He seems to be increasingly vocal. Again, I do not know how well this team talks and communicates with each other on the court. But I suspect that is one of the things we’ll see more of and a lot of that flows through Quinn. With three seniors in the starting lineup, it’s a testament to Quinn how much this sticks out. If Quinn continues to grow and makes this HIS team, this team jumps up a couple of notches.

The Rotation –
Alex Murphy is averaging a couple of first half minutes a game and has two DNPs. Everyone thought he was a big key to this year’s team and would start immediately at the 3. He started the two exhibition games but has played 14 minutes total and is 0-3 from the field since. Amile Jefferson is probably giving us about what people thought he would before the season started – a few high energy minutes per game. I expect both guys to get more minutes in games this Phase than any other portion of the season. They will play because our schedule is not that tough during exams and the holiday break. Will either guy do anything to earn more minutes, or even an integral role? History says no. A good comparison for both guys might be Ryan Kelly’s freshman year. He played in 35 of our 40 games in 2010, and averaged 6 minutes a game. He sniffed the court some, but never was counted on a whole lot. Either could be called upon if we have injuries or if we get into foul trouble. But the rotation likely will not include them for more than token minutes. In fact, it needs to be said that Josh Hairston has played better than Alex and Amile to date. Kudos to Josh for his hard work and for earning those minutes.

Marshall Plumlee on the other hand is likely to crack the rotation. Before he went down, he was said by the coaches to be one of the top 6 guys on this team. Mason is leading the team with 35.1 minutes per game. That’s not ideal for the big guy, and Marshall is the antidote. If he can spell Mason for two first half stretches and one second half stretch per game while rebounding, protecting the rim and throwing his 235lbs around, then he’s got a consistent role on this team. We’ll probably see his first minutes during Phase 2. But this may be one of the shortest benches we’ll ever see at Duke.

As Bob Green said in Phase 1, the coaches will learn a lot about this team. They have to like what they see. Now, can they add a few wrinkles – remember Kyle’s flash post up play or the one-hitters we ran for JJ out of time outs? It’s easy to let up after the tough stretch we had in Phase 1, but this team is hungry after last year’s opening round loss and the young guys are craving minutes on the bench. The competitive fire is there, and that’s great to see.

Super "Go Devils!" Dave


Good post, but you have a glaring omission:

What is Phase II??

superdave
12-06-2012, 07:42 PM
Thanks for another great Phase post. I didn't see it posted until today and I am not sure how I overlooked it.

I believe this team is Mason's team; if the team is going to continue their great play and achieve greatness, it is up to Mason to assert himself not only as the go to guy on both ends of the court but also as team leader. I expect Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly will be key leaders this year but ultimately Mason must be THE LEADER.

Again, thanks for the post! I expect it will generate a lot of great discussion.

Interesting that we disagree on this, Bob, since we agree on so much more.

I think Mason is the best player on the team, and will continue to rack up points and rebounds at a Shelden Williams pace. But I do not think he's the vocal/emotional leader of this team.

As I wrote in the phase post, I think Quinn is the team's emotional leader. I think if you want to read the pulse of this team, look at Quinn's face. He is jovial when we're playing well and determined when we're not. He has proven to be able to generate energy when the team is flat and take the team to another level at times. I think this is becoming his team and it will be by March.

This is clearly not a knock on Mason - or our other senior captains - but it is a testament to both who Quinn is and what he brings to the table and it speaks to the more reserved personalities of our seniors as well.

Newton_14
12-06-2012, 07:59 PM
Good post, but you have a glaring omission:

What is Phase II??

I believe Phase II is Delaware thru Davidson. Wake game will be the start of Phase III. I will edit the title and the post to reflect...

superdave
12-06-2012, 09:34 PM
I believe Phase II is Delaware thru Davidson. Wake game will be the start of Phase III. I will edit the title and the post to reflect...

Six games in 35 days in Phase II. That's quite different from the pace, and level of competition, of Phase I.

It will be nice to get Seth plenty of rest and some extra minutes for our bench this month.

licc85
12-07-2012, 03:27 AM
Marshall Plumlee on the other hand is likely to crack the rotation. Before he went down, he was said by the coaches to be one of the top 6 guys on this team. Mason is leading the team with 35.1 minutes per game. That’s not ideal for the big guy, and Marshall is the antidote. If he can spell Mason for two first half stretches and one second half stretch per game while rebounding, protecting the rim and throwing his 235lbs around, then he’s got a consistent role on this team. We’ll probably see his first minutes during Phase 2. But this may be one of the shortest benches we’ll ever see at Duke.

Super "Go Devils!" Dave

I have to disagree strongly here. Granted, your post was before the events in the Delaware game, but I actually think this is one of the deepest teams we've had in a LONG time, especially up front. I mean, yeah, it's a Mike Krzyzewski team, which means, by the end of March, only 7-8 guys will be sniffing significant minutes, but even so, our #6-#10 guys can all play. Tyler is a solid backup guard, we know what he brings, and he usually will always make plays that contribute to our success.

We haven't seen Marshall, but I agree with you here that he will most definitely be a factor in the rotation as a backup center. Everyone who has seen him raves about his ability.

Alex and Amile both played VERY well and showed a ton of effort in the Delaware game, and I think Alex definitely proved that he can get in there and play 8-10 good minutes and be effective. He rebounded well, played great within the offense and had some Singler-esque moments where he was diving on the floor and hustling, which has gotta earn him some points with the coaches. I hope to see this type of play continue in the next few games and have Alex earn a spot in the rotation.

Amile is just smooth, he's so physically underdeveloped but just finds ways to get to the basket and also has a knack for drawing fouls. (I wish he would hit more of his free throws, but that's nit-picking) I like both of those guys quite a bit, and I actually think they deserve to get Josh's minutes. Josh is fine . . he's just . . . Josh. We know what he is, and there's not a ton of upside there. He's slow, can't jump, severely undersized to play center, fouls about 20 times per 40 minutes, and he can't shoot. This is not to say he hasn't had some good minutes out there during phase 1. He's been a great plug-in guy off the bench, but the best thing he does is get an offensive rebound every once in awhile, and I think Marshall is a clear upgrade and gobbles up his minutes once he comes back.

DukieInBrasil
12-07-2012, 06:03 AM
I have to disagree strongly here. Granted, your post was before the events in the Delaware game, but I actually think this is one of the deepest teams we've had in a LONG time, especially up front. I mean, yeah, it's a Mike Krzyzewski team, which means, by the end of March, only 7-8 guys will be sniffing significant minutes, but even so, our #6-#10 guys can all play. Tyler is a solid backup guard, we know what he brings, and he usually will always make plays that contribute to our success.

We haven't seen Marshall, but I agree with you here that he will most definitely be a factor in the rotation as a backup center. Everyone who has seen him raves about his ability.

Alex and Amile both played VERY well and showed a ton of effort in the Delaware game, and I think Alex definitely proved that he can get in there and play 8-10 good minutes and be effective. He rebounded well, played great within the offense and had some Singler-esque moments where he was diving on the floor and hustling, which has gotta earn him some points with the coaches. I hope to see this type of play continue in the next few games and have Alex earn a spot in the rotation.

Amile is just smooth, he's so physically underdeveloped but just finds ways to get to the basket and also has a knack for drawing fouls. (I wish he would hit more of his free throws, but that's nit-picking) I like both of those guys quite a bit, and I actually think they deserve to get Josh's minutes. Josh is fine . . he's just . . . Josh. We know what he is, and there's not a ton of upside there. He's slow, can't jump, severely undersized to play center, fouls about 20 times per 40 minutes, and he can't shoot. This is not to say he hasn't had some good minutes out there during phase 1. He's been a great plug-in guy off the bench, but the best thing he does is get an offensive rebound every once in awhile, and I think Marshall is a clear upgrade and gobbles up his minutes once he comes back.

Josh is very seldom used to player C, almost always as PF, where is still somewhat undersized. Josh actually has a decent jumper out to about 12-15 feet. But i generally agree with the rest of your view about Josh: good for the occasional Oboard putback, good for energy, but prone to foul a lot, and likely to lose PT when Marshall comes back. OTOH, perhaps the growth of Amile and Alex and return of Marshall will mean that we start blowing teams out by so much that Josh starts getting more minutes ;-)

CDu
12-07-2012, 08:28 AM
Josh is very seldom used to player C, almost always as PF, where is still somewhat undersized. Josh actually has a decent jumper out to about 12-15 feet. But i generally agree with the rest of your view about Josh: good for the occasional Oboard putback, good for energy, but prone to foul a lot, and likely to lose PT when Marshall comes back. OTOH, perhaps the growth of Amile and Alex and return of Marshall will mean that we start blowing teams out by so much that Josh starts getting more minutes ;-)

Actually, Hairston has played a fair amount at C this year with Marshall out. He's the first big off the bench, often subbing for Mason. When he's in the game and Mason is out, it's typically him at C (with Kelly or Jefferson staying at PF). I'd say he's split his time about 50/50 between PF and C so far.

I'd expect the return of Marshall to bump that back to almost exclusively playing at PF.

jv001
12-07-2012, 09:36 AM
Thanks for another great Phase post. I didn't see it posted until today and I am not sure how I overlooked it.



I believe this team is Mason's team; if the team is going to continue their great play and achieve greatness, it is up to Mason to assert himself not only as the go to guy on both ends of the court but also as team leader. I expect Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly will be key leaders this year but ultimately Mason must be THE LEADER.

Again, thanks for the post! I expect it will generate a lot of great discussion.

Yesterday on ESPN, Dan Dakitch(sp?) said Mason Plumlee is the POY so far into the season. He had nothing but good things to say about our athletic center,lol. I agree it's Mason's team and he has to be the leader on and off the court. GoDuke!

CDu
12-07-2012, 09:47 AM
I look forward to the discussions started by Bob Green and encourage someone at the Moderator level to make and effort to get it started. Phase 1 was about Health, Renewed focuss on defense, Experience, Outside Shooting, PG and Freshman Stars.

Just to give credit where credit is due: these were originally the domain of Jumbo, who did them exclusively for the first year of their existence. Jumbo has since taken a long sabbatical from DBR, so in his stead several different posters have taken on the task, each presenting one of the Phases. Kedsy did Phase 0, Bog Green did Phase I, and superdave has now given us Phase II.

Saratoga2
12-07-2012, 12:29 PM
Just to give credit where credit is due: these were originally the domain of Jumbo, who did them exclusively for the first year of their existence. Jumbo has since taken a long sabbatical from DBR, so in his stead several different posters have taken on the task, each presenting one of the Phases. Kedsy did Phase 0, Bog Green did Phase I, and superdave has now given us Phase II.

Sorry I missed the Phase 2 post. I think Jumbo did a great job in the past, although there was a lot of spirited back and forth when he posted. The current guys doing the Phase posts are doing a fine job and clearly know the team well. I see Phase 2 as an opportunity to get Marshall, Alex and Amile more PT so they can be better evaluated and used effectively down the stretch and in the tournaments.

Greg_Newton
12-10-2012, 01:22 AM
(I was going to post this in the kenpom thread but figured it fit better here.)

Here's (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2013.html#all_advanced) an good look at our individual rebounding %s on both ends. ORB% = offensive rebounding percentage, DRB% = defensive:

http://i.imgur.com/SbUEE.png

On the offensive end, Mason has been good (11%), Hairston has been respectable (9%), and Amile has been the best on the team at close to 13% (ACC leaders (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_offensive_pct?games=1&conf=acc&season=2012-2013&min=) for perspective). Kelly's 6% is pretty poor for his height.

Our course, the defensive (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_defensive_pct?games=1&conf=acc&season=2012-2013&min=) end is the issue. Mason is very good at 24%, but then it just falls off a cliff - Kelly is next best at 12%, good for 46th in the ACC. Sulaimon, Cook and Thornton all do very well for their size (9.5-10%), but Curry contributes next to nothing from the wing at 5%. Interestingly, Amile is behind all of our non-Curry guards at 9%, despite being our best offensive rebounder. Murphy, OTOH, is a terrific 22% in limited time.

Main takeaways WRT defensive boards, IMO [with the standard disclaimer for small sample size]:

1. Kelly really hurts us. He's basically rebounding at a wing level.

2. Our guards are doing well for their size, but not having a SF rebounder hurts us.

3. Given the above, we're essentially substituting a SG's rebounding for a PF's, which is made worse due to how bad our starting SG (Curry) has been.

4. The "big" lineup with Amile at SF hasn't been any better than playing three guards.

5. If we were to improve in this area via personnel changes, then Murphy, rather than Amile, appears to be the way to do so, by a huge margin.

lotusland
12-10-2012, 08:07 AM
(I was going to post this in the kenpom thread but figured it fit better here.)

Here's (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2013.html#all_advanced) an good look at our individual rebounding %s on both ends. ORB% = offensive rebounding percentage, DRB% = defensive:

http://i.imgur.com/SbUEE.png

On the offensive end, Mason has been good (11%), Hairston has been respectable (9%), and Amile has been the best on the team at close to 13% (ACC leaders (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_offensive_pct?games=1&conf=acc&season=2012-2013&min=) for perspective). Kelly's 6% is pretty poor for his height.

Our course, the defensive (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_defensive_pct?games=1&conf=acc&season=2012-2013&min=) end is the issue. Mason is very good at 24%, but then it just falls off a cliff - Kelly is next best at 12%, good for 46th in the ACC. Sulaimon, Cook and Thornton all do very well for their size (9.5-10%), but Curry contributes next to nothing from the wing at 5%. Interestingly, Amile is behind all of our non-Curry guards at 9%, despite being our best offensive rebounder. Murphy, OTOH, is a terrific 22% in limited time.

Main takeaways WRT defensive boards, IMO [with the standard disclaimer for small sample size]:

1. Kelly really hurts us. He's basically rebounding at a wing level.

2. Our guards are doing well for their size, but not having a SF rebounder hurts us.

3. Given the above, we're essentially substituting a SG's rebounding for a PF's, which is made worse due to how bad our starting SG (Curry) has been.

4. The "big" lineup with Amile at SF hasn't been any better than playing three guards.

5. If we were to improve in this area via personnel changes, then Murphy, rather than Amile, appears to be the way to do so, by a huge margin.

Seems obvious that K needs to insert Todd every offensive posession:o

supbros
12-10-2012, 10:03 AM
Main takeaways WRT defensive boards, IMO [with the standard disclaimer for small sample size]:

1. Kelly really hurts us. He's basically rebounding at a wing level.

2. Our guards are doing well for their size, but not having a SF rebounder hurts us.

3. Given the above, we're essentially substituting a SG's rebounding for a PF's, which is made worse due to how bad our starting SG (Curry) has been.

4. The "big" lineup with Amile at SF hasn't been any better than playing three guards.

5. If we were to improve in this area via personnel changes, then Murphy, rather than Amile, appears to be the way to do so, by a huge margin.

It doesn't seem that you really grasp the meaning of a small sample size in spite of your initial disclaimer. Amile + Murphy both have ridiculously small samples that have come in mostly garbage time, yet you are willing to deduce that there's not only a discernable difference in their D-Reb mettle but a huge one at that? There's very little predictive value in their rebounding samples thus far.

RK has an 11.9% d-reb rate this year but was at 15.3% last year- do you think that he's gotten worse or that perhaps he's been adversely affected by the uniquely difficult schedule + perhaps some SSS variance?

superdave
12-10-2012, 03:33 PM
It doesn't seem that you really grasp the meaning of a small sample size in spite of your initial disclaimer. Amile + Murphy both have ridiculously small samples that have come in mostly garbage time, yet you are willing to deduce that there's not only a discernable difference in their D-Reb mettle but a huge one at that? There's very little predictive value in their rebounding samples thus far.

RK has an 11.9% d-reb rate this year but was at 15.3% last year- do you think that he's gotten worse or that perhaps he's been adversely affected by the uniquely difficult schedule + perhaps some SSS variance?

I dont have a KenPom subscription, but here's what I see on the GoDuke database. Through 9 games, opponents have attempted 554 FGs for about 61.5 per game. Last season, in 34 games, opponents attempted 1,996 Fgs for about 58.7 per game.

Ryan averaged 5.4 rebounds per game last year and is at 5.2 right now this year, which is not much of a difference. The increased number of opponents shot attempts by opponents could be diluting RK's %, and also suggests a faster paced game which could also work against Ryan's more methodical game.

I do think we need a little more rebounding prowess just to be prepared in the event that we run into a big front line in March. Hopefully Marshall can help with that.

Recall Zoubek coming in for a few stretches vs. Texas in Round 2 of the NCAAs in 2009 (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=20090321). He bodied Dexter Pittman up and would not let Pittman get going when it seemed like all the momentum was going Texas' way. We just might need Marshall, or even Josh/Amile/Alex, to step up to netutralize one matchup disadvantage late in the season. That's why I want to see them improve now with some December minutes.

Greg_Newton
12-11-2012, 12:01 AM
It doesn't seem that you really grasp the meaning of a small sample size in spite of your initial disclaimer. Amile + Murphy both have ridiculously small samples that have come in mostly garbage time, yet you are willing to deduce that there's not only a discernable difference in their D-Reb mettle but a huge one at that? There's very little predictive value in their rebounding samples thus far.

RK has an 11.9% d-reb rate this year but was at 15.3% last year- do you think that he's gotten worse or that perhaps he's been adversely affected by the uniquely difficult schedule + perhaps some SSS variance?

Or perhaps you didn't really grasp the meaner of the term "disclaimer"? My claim was, essentially, "From the small available sample size, Alex appears to be a far superior defensive rebounder to Amile." That's an accurate claim. It is also consistent with the eye test, for me, as Alex has boxed out noticeably better and been quicker to get in rebounding position that has Amile.

I would also argue that neither sample is "ridiculously small", especially so much that they're unworthy of discussion during a dead period in the schedule. Amile has played 79 minutes in nine games and been part of the regular rotation, while Alex has played 40 minutes during the same span, less than a third of which came in garbage time. Both played 20+ minutes in the rotation against Delaware, which were good, meaningful minutes despite the final score. That's enough to make a 14% differential not inconsequential, even if Alex's number is likely to settle down.

Good question about Ryan though. The schedule explanation would make sense, except that Mason's percentage so far has been identical to last year's (to the 0.1%!) and Josh, Quinn and Tyler's have all been higher (Curry's has also dipped a little, but I'll give him a pass for playing on one leg). It would certainly be nice if it were just variance that will correct over the course of the season, but it's a little disappointing to see from a guy who spent the summer trying to improve in that area.

Saratoga2
12-11-2012, 08:47 AM
Or perhaps you didn't really grasp the meaner of the term "disclaimer"? My claim was, essentially, "From the small available sample size, Alex appears to be a far superior defensive rebounder to Amile." That's an accurate claim. It is also consistent with the eye test, for me, as Alex has boxed out noticeably better and been quicker to get in rebounding position that has Amile.

I would also argue that neither sample is "ridiculously small", especially so much that they're unworthy of discussion during a dead period in the schedule. Amile has played 79 minutes in nine games and been part of the regular rotation, while Alex has played 40 minutes during the same span, less than a third of which came in garbage time. Both played 20+ minutes in the rotation against Delaware, which were good, meaningful minutes despite the final score. That's enough to make a 14% differential not inconsequential, even if Alex's number is likely to settle down.

Good question about Ryan though. The schedule explanation would make sense, except that Mason's percentage so far has been identical to last year's (to the 0.1%!) and Josh, Quinn and Tyler's have all been higher (Curry's has also dipped a little, but I'll give him a pass for playing on one leg). It would certainly be nice if it were just variance that will correct over the course of the season, but it's a little disappointing to see from a guy who spent the summer trying to improve in that area.

This year we have played a very tough schedule, which might also explain some of the variances in rebounding. Lets have another look at the conclusion of phase II, which will then include some softer opponents. That will also increase the sample size to make the numbers more meaningful.

sagegrouse
12-11-2012, 09:03 AM
Let's see if I understand the situation on rebounding: if you contest every move, pass, and shot by the opponents, you win, and the opponents miss most of their shots. But they get quite a few offensive rebounds, in part because because of positioning but also because there are a lot of missed shots to rebound.

If you pack it in under the basket, the opponents rarely get an offensive rebound because they make most of their shots and there are few to be had. But they win the game.

It can't be this simple, can it?

sagegrouse

CDu
12-11-2012, 09:50 AM
Let's see if I understand the situation on rebounding: if you contest every move, pass, and shot by the opponents, you win, and the opponents miss most of their shots. But they get quite a few offensive rebounds, in part because because of positioning but also because there are a lot of missed shots to rebound.

If you pack it in under the basket, the opponents rarely get an offensive rebound because they make most of their shots and there are few to be had. But they win the game.

It can't be this simple, can it?

sagegrouse

Well, no, it's not that simple. Remember: the rebounding issue isn't an issue of "a lot of missed shots to rebound." It's an issue of the percentage of missed shots that are rebounded. Pomeroy isn't saying "Duke gives up a high number of rebounds." He's saying "Duke gives up a high percentage of available rebounds."

If you defend really really well and force a miss on 100% of initial shots, but then allow 75% of those misses to be rebounded by your opponent, then they get a second chance on 75% of possessions. If they hit 75% of those second-chance baskets (not unreasonable given that many second-chance opportunities are near the basket and less-contested) then they are scoring on 60% of total possessions in which a shot is taken. If you pack it in, teams will hit a higher percentage of 2s (let's say 60%) and 3s (let's say 50%), but theoretically will get no offensive rebounds.

Obviously, those are extreme scenarios (e.g., we aren't going to force 100% misses with pressure, and we aren't going to get 100% of rebounds if we pack it in). But the point is that there's a give-and-take. There's also not a mutual exclusivity between pressure defense and rebounding. It is certainly harder to do both. But it is certainly possible to do both. I don't think anyone is suggesting that we change our defensive strategy to pack it in. Instead, many are just trying to find marginal changes that will help with the rebounding rate.

licc85
12-11-2012, 10:51 AM
I think it would be interesting to see what our rebounding numbers look like with Mason in the game compared with the numbers when he's on the bench. This is definitely a concern, considering that most teams will likely utilize a gameplay that involves attacking Mason in the paint to try to draw fouls on our best player.

Either way, I'm confident that the addition of Marshall will be a huge boon to our rebounding numbers. He's such a massive upgrade in just about every way over Josh Hairston as a backup big that I believe it will be a very noticeable difference in our post defense and rebounding when Mason is resting or in foul trouble. He's a freshman, but there no denying his athleticism and size. Coach K has described him as a legitimate 7 footer who wants to be a center. I think Mason is definitely a bit more of a 4 naturally, and it will definitely be interesting to see how the addition of Marshall will affect his play, especially if they are sharing time on the court together. I wonder if we will even run a big lineup with Ryan at the 3 . . . that's some serious length in the frontcourt.

Overall, I'm not as concerned with our rebounding numbers. Ever since the Pomeroy article came out on ESPN, there's been kind of a huge movement on this forum to discuss how we are being outrebounded. I think it's way too early to start talking about how we can't compete for a national title because no recent champion has ever been outrebounded like this. We've played a tough schedule, and most of our players aren't natural rebounders. Even then, we're only being outrebounded by 2 a game. Plus, we already proved in the OSU game that we can have a sub-par shooting performance, be soundly outrebounded, and still come out with a win.

I still think we're the best team in the nation. We have the best ball movement and teamwork of any team I've seen this year, we have an extremely good assist to turnover ratio, and a very high field goal to assist ratio as well. These are the signs a of great team and one that will be very effective in March. It's not a perfect team (no one is), and rebounding has been one of our weaknesses, but we are so incredibly great in so many other areas that it really hasn't mattered even against such a difficult slate thus far.

CDu
12-11-2012, 11:21 AM
I think Mason is definitely a bit more of a 4 naturally, and it will definitely be interesting to see how the addition of Marshall will affect his play, especially if they are sharing time on the court together.

Many have said this about Mason. But nothing about his game to this point suggests he's anything like a college 4. He doesn't have good shooting range, he isn't terribly quick, and when he has to dribble more than once or twice (in the half court) he often makes mistakes. He is, in my opinion, pretty much a true 5 at the college level.


I wonder if we will even run a big lineup with Ryan at the 3 . . . that's some serious length in the frontcourt.

I would hope not. That team would be incredibly slow. Marshall may be of average quickness for a 5 (don't know for sure yet). Mason is definitely not as quick as the average college 4. And Kelly is not as quick as most college 4s, let alone college 3s. It'd be a tall team. But I don't think it would be our most effective use of resources.

tommy
12-11-2012, 11:49 AM
Either way, I'm confident that the addition of Marshall will be a huge boon to our rebounding numbers.

I highly doubt that. He's not going to be getting very many minutes, certainly not enough to affect our rebounding numbers in a significant way.

Kedsy
12-11-2012, 12:01 PM
I think it would be interesting to see what our rebounding numbers look like with Mason in the game compared with the numbers when he's on the bench. This is definitely a concern, considering that most teams will likely utilize a gameplay that involves attacking Mason in the paint to try to draw fouls on our best player.

For selected games:

Kentucky
---------
Mason in game (28:25): Duke 12 def rebs, 5 off rebs; UK 16 def rebs, 5 off rebs
Mason out (11:35): Duke 8 def rebs, 6 off rebs; UK 5 def rebs, 4 off rebs

Minnesota
----------
Mason in game (35:36): Duke 21 def rebs, 10 off rebs; Minn 17 def rebs, 13 off rebs
Mason out (4:24): Duke 1 def reb, 0 off rebs; Minn 2 def rebs, 3 off rebs

VCU
----
Mason in game (36:36): Duke 27 def rebs, 3 off rebs; VCU 22 def rebs, 16 off rebs
Mason out (3:24): Duke 3 def rebs, 1 off reb; VCU 2 def rebs, 1 off reb

Louisville
---------
Mason in game (35:59): Duke 22 def rebs, 7 off rebs; L'ville 21 def rebs 14 off rebs
Mason out (4:01): Duke 3 def rebs, 1 off reb; L'ville 3 def rebs, 0 off rebs

Ohio State
-----------
Mason in game (39:28): Duke 29 def rebs, 8 off rebs; OSU 22 def rebs, 18 off rebs
Mason out (0:32): Duke 0 def rebs, 0 off rebs; OSU 0 def rebs, 0 off rebs

Temple
-------
Mason in game (33:41): Duke 24 def rebs, 11 off rebs; Temple 20 def rebs, 12 off rebs
Mason out (6:19): Duke 3 def rebs, 0 off rebs; Temple 3 def rebs, 4 off rebs


Obviously, there are a lot of other factors in play here, like who is on the floor for our opponents when Mason's on the bench. And since Mason has played so many minutes, the "out" time is a very small sample, and this doesn't tell us how many made shots vs. missed shots there were while he was out (I was too lazy to calculate rebounding percentages). Also, for example, 2 of Temple's Mason-on-bench offensive boards came during garbage time in the last few minutes of the game. Yet even counting those garbage time minutes, only Minnesota and Temple appeared to have taken advantage of Mason being on the bench. If Marshall subs only for Mason, it's hard to see him drastically improving our rebounding.

sagegrouse
12-11-2012, 12:07 PM
Well, no, it's not that simple. Remember: the rebounding issue isn't an issue of "a lot of missed shots to rebound." It's an issue of the percentage of missed shots that are rebounded. Pomeroy isn't saying "Duke gives up a high number of rebounds." He's saying "Duke gives up a high percentage of available rebounds."

If you defend really really well and force a miss on 100% of initial shots, but then allow 75% of those misses to be rebounded by your opponent, then they get a second chance on 75% of possessions. If they hit 75% of those second-chance baskets (not unreasonable given that many second-chance opportunities are near the basket and less-contested) then they are scoring on 60% of total possessions in which a shot is taken. If you pack it in, teams will hit a higher percentage of 2s (let's say 60%) and 3s (let's say 50%), but theoretically will get no offensive rebounds.

Obviously, those are extreme scenarios (e.g., we aren't going to force 100% misses with pressure, and we aren't going to get 100% of rebounds if we pack it in). But the point is that there's a give-and-take. There's also not a mutual exclusivity between pressure defense and rebounding. It is certainly harder to do both. But it is certainly possible to do both. I don't think anyone is suggesting that we change our defensive strategy to pack it in. Instead, many are just trying to find marginal changes that will help with the rebounding rate.

I need to look harder for that tongue-in-cheek emoticon. But before we undergo self-flagellation, please remember that an opponent's offensive rebound begins with something good -- a missed shot. Ceteris paribus, more missed shots yields more offensive rebounds given up. Yeah, I know that only getting one-fourth of the rebounds on our defensive board is bad, but I do like it when opponents take and miss low-percentage shots.

Sometimes when you find a flaw in a tent peg and go to replace it, the whole tent collapses.

sagegrouse

Kedsy
12-11-2012, 12:42 PM
Sometimes when you find a flaw in a tent peg and go to replace it, the whole tent collapses.

This is a great point. Personally, I thought last year when we abandoned the Seth/Austin/Andre backcourt that was basically just outscoring everybody, in order to find more defense, it was the beginning of the end for last year's team. Our team defense didn't really improve (in fact it got a lot worse according to Pomeroy), and our offense looked a lot more pedestrian (though according to Pomeroy it stayed elite through the Florida State game in late February, so perhaps my observation there was awry). When Ryan went down we were left with what in my mind was a pretty mediocre offense combined with a dreadful defense. Even if we'd beaten Lehigh, unless Ryan returned at full strength we weren't going anywhere and even if he did return our chances weren't great.

Sure, maybe the tent would have collapsed anyway. But as much as I don't like to criticize coaching decisions, in my mind I questioned whether perhaps we overreacted to the bad Ohio State loss and it possibly affected the rest of our season in a non-optimal way.

NSDukeFan
12-11-2012, 12:59 PM
...

Either way, I'm confident that the addition of Marshall will be a huge boon to our rebounding numbers. He's such a massive upgrade in just about every way over Josh Hairston as a backup big that I believe it will be a very noticeable difference in our post defense and rebounding when Mason is resting or in foul trouble. He's a freshman, but there no denying his athleticism and size. Coach K has described him as a legitimate 7 footer who wants to be a center. I think Mason is definitely a bit more of a 4 naturally, and it will definitely be interesting to see how the addition of Marshall will affect his play, especially if they are sharing time on the court together. I wonder if we will even run a big lineup with Ryan at the 3 . . . that's some serious length in the frontcourt.

Overall, I'm not as concerned with our rebounding numbers. Ever since the Pomeroy article came out on ESPN, there's been kind of a huge movement on this forum to discuss how we are being outrebounded. I think it's way too early to start talking about how we can't compete for a national title because no recent champion has ever been outrebounded like this. We've played a tough schedule, and most of our players aren't natural rebounders. Even then, we're only being outrebounded by 2 a game. Plus, we already proved in the OSU game that we can have a sub-par shooting performance, be soundly outrebounded, and still come out with a win.

I still think we're the best team in the nation. We have the best ball movement and teamwork of any team I've seen this year, we have an extremely good assist to turnover ratio, and a very high field goal to assist ratio as well. These are the signs a of great team and one that will be very effective in March. It's not a perfect team (no one is), and rebounding has been one of our weaknesses, but we are so incredibly great in so many other areas that it really hasn't mattered even against such a difficult slate thus far.

I agree with much of your post, but feel you may be guilty of Ilovenewguyitis. I am hoping Marshall comes in, shows he is one of the top 6 players on the team, solidifies the bench, rebounds with authority when he comes in, dominates the paint defensively and is half as good on the court as he is in Blue Planet videos. Unfortunately, I have not had a chance to see him play and am not sure without seeing him play or seeing coach K call on him to sub in for another player yet that he is an upgrade over Josh in any way except that he is taller. No, Josh is not a dominant player for this team, but he does have value (I don't know if the team beats UK without his putbacks), hustles, understands team defensive concepts, offensive rebounds quite well and can hit a 15-18 foot jumper to spread the floor. I hope Marshall can do all of this and more and hope to see some of that in the next few games, but I haven't seen it yet.

CDu
12-11-2012, 01:01 PM
I need to look harder for that tongue-in-cheek emoticon. But before we undergo self-flagellation, please remember that an opponent's offensive rebound begins with something good -- a missed shot. Ceteris paribus, more missed shots yields more offensive rebounds given up. Yeah, I know that only getting one-fourth of the rebounds on our defensive board is bad, but I do like it when opponents take and miss low-percentage shots.

Sometimes when you find a flaw in a tent peg and go to replace it, the whole tent collapses.

sagegrouse

No disagreement here. Forcing bad shots is a good thing. Better than allowing easy shots. Preventing offensive rebounds is a good thing. Better than allowing them (because they frequently result in easy shots). I would most certainly not suggest that we make drastic changes (I've made the comment elsewhere that we shouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water with regard to this topic). But it would be nice to find a way (on the margins) to improve the defensive rebounding without taking away the pressure defense.

My point was simply that pressure defense and solid defensive rebounding need not be mutually exclusive. It would appear that some people on this board seem to think that you can have only one or the other but not both.

supbros
12-11-2012, 01:13 PM
I agree with much of your post, but feel you may be guilty of Ilovenewguyitis. I am hoping Marshall comes in, shows he is one of the top 6 players on the team, solidifies the bench, rebounds with authority when he comes in, dominates the paint defensively and is half as good on the court as he is in Blue Planet videos. Unfortunately, I have not had a chance to see him play and am not sure without seeing him play or seeing coach K call on him to sub in for another player yet that he is an upgrade over Josh in any way except that he is taller. No, Josh is not a dominant player for this team, but he does have value (I don't know if the team beats UK without his putbacks), hustles, understands team defensive concepts, offensive rebounds quite well and can hit a 15-18 foot jumper to spread the floor. I hope Marshall can do all of this and more and hope to see some of that in the next few games, but I haven't seen it yet.

I disagree, I think Marshall is a huge fave to be an upgrade on Hairston.

First of all Hairston's career D-Reb% is 10.6, which is weak for a big man. He's doing better this year at 16.5, but that is likely only partially genuine improvement and will regress over the course of the season. I think it's pretty fair to set EV at ~ 12-13%, which MP3 should top since both of his brothers were quality rebounders early in their careers.

Hairston has been advertised to hit the mid-range shot, but hasn't actually proven that he can hit it in game. Thus far this year he's been pretty much invisible on offense w/ a 9.6% usg and a 47% TS. On defense he seems to get burned more often than anybody else other than Murphy.

Sure he hustles but I imagine that MP3 will too, while also being a small to medium upgrade in all phases of the game.

NSDukeFan
12-11-2012, 01:15 PM
I disagree, I think Marshall is a huge fave to be an upgrade on Hairston.

First of all Hairston's career D-Reb% is 10.6, which is weak for a big man. He's doing better this year at 16.5, but that is likely only partially genuine improvement and will regress over the course of the season. I think it's pretty fair to set EV at ~ 12-13%, which MP3 should top since both of his brothers were quality rebounders early in their careers.

Hairston has been advertised to hit the mid-range shot, but hasn't actually proven that he can hit it in game. Thus far this year he's been pretty much invisible on offense w/ a 9.6% usg and a 47% TS. On defense he seems to get burned more often than anybody else other than Murphy.

Sure he hustles but I imagine that MP3 will too, while also being a small to medium upgrade in all phases of the game.

I guess the part I bolded is my major point. I hope he is great too, but so far he only is in my imagination.

supbros
12-11-2012, 01:22 PM
Sure we don't have any hardcore evidence to deduce how good MP3 will be, and he has a decently wide range of possibilities. But given that he has had two brothers play at Duke before him w/ one rater higher and the other rated slightly lower, we can reasonably approximate what to expect. I'm comfortable in saying that he'll be an upgrade over Hairston at least 90% of the time.

NSDukeFan
12-11-2012, 01:38 PM
Sure we don't have any hardcore evidence to deduce how good MP3 will be, and he has a decently wide range of possibilities. But given that he has had two brothers play at Duke before him w/ one rater higher and the other rated slightly lower, we can reasonably approximate what to expect. I'm comfortable in saying that he'll be an upgrade over Hairston at least 90% of the time.

You're right we don't have any hardcore evidence as to how MP3 will do; actually since he has yet to play at the college level, we don't have any evidence. If we are going to be able to approximate how well Marshall is going to play this year based on how his brothers fared (which I think is ridiculous, but I will play along), I would note that Miles was not injured at the start of his freshman year and ended up averaging 7mpg, 1.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg with several DNP-CDs. Those numbers are not an upgrade over Hairston who is averaging 9 mpg, 1.6 ppg and 2.2 rpg and 0 DNPs on an undefeated team.
I am a big Marshall fan and hope he has a great impact on this year's and future teams. I am just not ready to say for sure that he is going to be better than another player on our team that I have seen play and contribute many times and also like very much and want to see excel.

supbros
12-11-2012, 01:47 PM
You're right we don't have any hardcore evidence as to how MP3 will do; actually since he has yet to play at the college level, we don't have any evidence. If we are going to be able to approximate how well Marshall is going to play this year based on how his brothers fared (which I think is ridiculous, but I will play along), I would note that Miles was not injured at the start of his freshman year and ended up averaging 7mpg, 1.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg with several DNP-CDs. Those numbers are not an upgrade over Hairston who is averaging 9 mpg, 1.6 ppg and 2.2 rpg and 0 DNPs on an undefeated team.
I am a big Marshall fan and hope he has a great impact on this year's and future teams. I am just not ready to say for sure that he is going to be better than another player on our team that I have seen play and contribute many times and also like very much and want to see excel.

Yeah I'd guess if you took the myers briggs you'd grade out heavily as a sensing type who likes facts and hard evidence. I graded strong on the intuitive side of the scale, which means I like working with fuzzy info and making wild guesses.

FWIW I think Miles's sophomore year is a better approximation for what to expect from Marshall since he's a redshirt and had last season to practice w/ the team and hone his skills. The only difference is that Miles played ~ 150 mins of mostly garbage time, I doubt those reps made the world of difference between his freshman and sophomore seasons. At the same time I would also say that Miles's soph season is likely closer to Marshall's upside than his median since it was quite good, but we'll get a more definitive answer when we finally get to see him play some games.

jv001
12-11-2012, 02:05 PM
This is a great point. Personally, I thought last year when we abandoned the Seth/Austin/Andre backcourt that was basically just outscoring everybody, in order to find more defense, it was the beginning of the end for last year's team. Our team defense didn't really improve (in fact it got a lot worse according to Pomeroy), and our offense looked a lot more pedestrian (though according to Pomeroy it stayed elite through the Florida State game in late February, so perhaps my observation there was awry). When Ryan went down we were left with what in my mind was a pretty mediocre offense combined with a dreadful defense. Even if we'd beaten Lehigh, unless Ryan returned at full strength we weren't going anywhere and even if he did return our chances weren't great.

Sure, maybe the tent would have collapsed anyway. But as much as I don't like to criticize coaching decisions, in my mind I questioned whether perhaps we overreacted to the bad Ohio State loss and it possibly affected the rest of our season in a non-optimal way.

100% accurate in my eyes. We went from an exciting offense to a watch Austin dribble for most of the shot clock and go for a contested layup or a pull up 3. GoDuke!

CDu
12-11-2012, 02:42 PM
At the same time I would also say that Miles's soph season is likely closer to Marshall's upside than his median since it was quite good, but we'll get a more definitive answer when we finally get to see him play some games.

I'd note that Marshall is bigger but generally considered less athletic than either of his brothers. In fact, it seems that the raw athleticism has gone down with each subsequent Plumlee. Miles was the freak athlete. Mason was pretty freakish athletically but less so than Miles. Marshall is apparently the least athletic of the three. It remains to be seen how much (if any) athletic dropoff there is to Marshall, of course. But I'd be inclined to believe that Miles' sophomore season is close to a ceiling for Marshall's redshirt freshman season.

I'd also note that even those numbers (16.4 mpg, 5.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg) may be unachievable for Marshall due to opportunity limitations. In 2010 (Miles' sophomore season) we didn't have a clear pecking order for much of the season. Mason was hurt early, and Zoubek had yet to establish himself as a consistent, reliable presence. This year, we have two clear-cut, undeniable, starting bigs who are going to play 30+ mpg. That leaves less than 20 mpg for Marshall, Hairston, and Jefferson to split at PF and C off the bench. I don't see Coach K giving virtually all of those minutes to Marshall, which means he's going to have trouble matching Miles' 16.4 mpg as a soph.

phaedrus
12-11-2012, 03:45 PM
I'd note that Marshall is bigger but generally considered less athletic than either of his brothers. In fact, it seems that the raw athleticism has gone down with each subsequent Plumlee. Miles was the freak athlete. Mason was pretty freakish athletically but less so than Miles. Marshall is apparently the least athletic of the three. It remains to be seen how much (if any) athletic dropoff there is to Marshall, of course. But I'd be inclined to believe that Miles' sophomore season is close to a ceiling for Marshall's redshirt freshman season.

I'd also note that even those numbers (16.4 mpg, 5.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg) may be unachievable for Marshall due to opportunity limitations. In 2010 (Miles' sophomore season) we didn't have a clear pecking order for much of the season. Mason was hurt early, and Zoubek had yet to establish himself as a consistent, reliable presence. This year, we have two clear-cut, undeniable, starting bigs who are going to play 30+ mpg. That leaves less than 20 mpg for Marshall, Hairston, and Jefferson to split at PF and C off the bench. I don't see Coach K giving virtually all of those minutes to Marshall, which means he's going to have trouble matching Miles' 16.4 mpg as a soph.

Indeed, and 16.4 mpg would leave a lot of time with both Plumlees on the floor. As you have already pointed out, that scenario is an unlikely one.

I would put the ceiling for Marshall's playing time at 40 minutes minus [Mason's playing time].

Saratoga2
12-11-2012, 04:46 PM
Indeed, and 16.4 mpg would leave a lot of time with both Plumlees on the floor. As you have already pointed out, that scenario is an unlikely one.

I would put the ceiling for Marshall's playing time at 40 minutes minus [Mason's playing time].

Next season Marshall will be playing heavy minutes, since he will be our only true big. Anyone arguing against his athleticism may miss other abilities he has, such as scoring in the low post, jump shot and on defense, boxing out, etc. The fact is, we don't really have any basis to judge how good he will be other than coach K saying he may be the 6th best player on the team. Lets hope he can get minutes in some of the softer games coming up. No doubt we will need him during the season. Foul issues, illness and injury can take a toll on our bigs during the season. We did lose Ryan last year for instance.

phaedrus
12-11-2012, 04:55 PM
Next season Marshall will be playing heavy minutes, since he will be our only true big.

Indeed, and I look forward to seeing him play those minutes next season. For this season, though, playing as a back-up for a National Player of the Year candidate will limit his minutes.

TruBlu
12-11-2012, 05:01 PM
It is hard to predict how many minutes Marshall will get, and I'm not going to try. A lot depends on foul trouble, illness and injury (please no!), and the flow of the games. I do think he will be in the top two off the bench in most cases, and will be an asset on the court.

I just hope he doesn't neglect one of his primary duties . . . entertaining us with his videos and interviews.

Indoor66
12-11-2012, 05:03 PM
Indeed, and I look forward to seeing him play those minutes next season. For this season, though, playing as a back-up for a National Player of the Year candidate will limit his minutes.

I'll bet he really cheers for that guy! :eek:

supbros
12-11-2012, 05:11 PM
I got Marshall playing ~ 12 minutes/game

Duke76
12-11-2012, 06:33 PM
Next season Marshall will be playing heavy minutes, since he will be our only true big. Anyone arguing against his athleticism may miss other abilities he has, such as scoring in the low post, jump shot and on defense, boxing out, etc. The fact is, we don't really have any basis to judge how good he will be other than coach K saying he may be the 6th best player on the team. Lets hope he can get minutes in some of the softer games coming up. No doubt we will need him during the season. Foul issues, illness and injury can take a toll on our bigs during the season. We did lose Ryan last year for instance.


how in the world would we know how Marshall stacks up in any stat or skill...when have we seen him play at all...really would like to know who has any insight on this??

CDu
12-11-2012, 07:09 PM
how in the world would we know how Marshall stacks up in any stat or skill...when have we seen him play at all...really would like to know who has any insight on this??

As one of the folks (maybe the only one?) who mentioned Marshall lacking the athleticism of his older brothers, I'm saying this based on what I remember reading from the recruiting reports during his high school days. That, combined with his less than inspiring highlight videos (not good for analyzing skill level, but very helpful in analyzing raw athleticism), are the pieces of evidence on which I'm basing my comments.

Bob Green
12-11-2012, 07:24 PM
I got Marshall playing ~ 12 minutes/game

I'll take the under.

licc85
12-11-2012, 09:47 PM
I honestly would not be surprised at all if Marshall played around 10-12 minutes a game this year, but definitely more minutes in games where we are playing against outmatched opponents. The main reason for this I think is that he needs in-game experience. A lot of it. He's going to our starting center next year, and practice reps do not compare to in-game reps.

Coach K seems very confident in his ability already, and, as several others in addition to myself have already mentioned, Coach K said at the beginning of the year that Marshall was our 6th man. Granted, nobody other than Coach K and the players themselves know for sure how he's playing, but looking at high school tape really isn't going to be an accurate barometer of his athleticism. After all, he got 2nd place in the McD's dunk contest (and by all rights, should have won it going away . . . ), and he shares the same genes with 2 of the most prolific rebounders/dunk artists in the history of Duke basketball.

Marshall has spent a year and a half improving his body and working on his strength. I highly doubt that he still has the same body as he did in high school, where he still managed to average, for all intents and purposes the exact same number of rebounds and blocks his senior year as Mason did. (10 and 2 respectively)

Personally, I'm very optomistic about Marshall. If Coach K thinks he's good enough to be the 6th man on a team THIS good, I mean . . . he's gotta be pretty darn good. Other than that, he's 7 feet tall, jumps really high, runs pretty fast, and has a great motor. What else do you want in a college big man?

I see him being a big factor for our team this year. He will be a role player, obviously, but I believe he will get significant minutes. Nobody can really predict how well he will play. Sure, he'll probably foul uncontrollably and have quite a few Plumlee-esque turnovers, but you can't teach big, and there's no denying that Marshall is the biggest Plumlee.

Greg_Newton
12-12-2012, 12:04 AM
As one of the folks (maybe the only one?) who mentioned Marshall lacking the athleticism of his older brothers, I'm saying this based on what I remember reading from the recruiting reports during his high school days. That, combined with his less than inspiring highlight videos (not good for analyzing skill level, but very helpful in analyzing raw athleticism), are the pieces of evidence on which I'm basing my comments.

Not disagreeing with you here (and this is kind of beside the point), but Marshall has gotten a lot more athletic (http://i.imgur.com/thuKK.png?1) since his So/Jr HS days, when he was pretty awkward. He can get up there for a seven footer.

niveklaen
12-12-2012, 04:31 AM
I think we should all take the '6th man' comment from K with a grain of salt. This is, IMHO, just feel good praise for a freshman who is not actually likely to see much time on the court. I compare it to 'Murphy will be a 4 year starter for us.' and to put it in perspective, Marshall actually being our 6th man would mean him getting more pt than Thorton - is that likely in any universe?

We are running ahead of ourselves based on a 'lets praise the freshman' quote.

I side with those who think he will have Miles' freshman year (1.9pts 1.4 rbs 6.9min) type numbers.

licc85
12-12-2012, 05:07 AM
I think we should all take the '6th man' comment from K with a grain of salt. This is, IMHO, just feel good praise for a freshman who is not actually likely to see much time on the court. I compare it to 'Murphy will be a 4 year starter for us.' and to put it in perspective, Marshall actually being our 6th man would mean him getting more pt than Thorton - is that likely in any universe?

We are running ahead of ourselves based on a 'lets praise the freshman' quote.

I side with those who think he will have Miles' freshman year (1.9pts 1.4 rbs 6.9min) type numbers.

I'm definitely taking that comment with a grain of salt. There's no way he gets more playing time than Thornton, who's really been our best role player. However, I still think he gets more playing time than either Amile or Josh because he's going to be good on defense. Good defense is a characteristic of all bench players who get a good amount of playing time on Coach K's teams, and an active 7 footer, especially one who has been practicing with the team for a year and half sounds pretty good to me. I think he does slightly better than Miles, maybe 3 points, 3 boards and half a block in 8 minutes per game is my best guess, but I wouldn't be shocked to see even better numbers and more minutes. I like his potential as a rebounder.

CDu
12-12-2012, 08:16 AM
I think we should all take the '6th man' comment from K with a grain of salt. This is, IMHO, just feel good praise for a freshman who is not actually likely to see much time on the court. I compare it to 'Murphy will be a 4 year starter for us.' and to put it in perspective, Marshall actually being our 6th man would mean him getting more pt than Thorton - is that likely in any universe?

We are running ahead of ourselves based on a 'lets praise the freshman' quote.

I side with those who think he will have Miles' freshman year (1.9pts 1.4 rbs 6.9min) type numbers.

Yeah, until we actually see Marshall on the floor, I'm not sure we should make too much of Coach K's "one of the top-six players" (note: that's slightly different than the sixth man) comment. Your point about Coach K's comments regarding Murphy is absolutely correct. Until we see him play, those comments are just words.

I tend to think he'll be somewhere between Miles' freshman year (6.8 mpg, 1.8ppg, 1.4rpg) and his sophomore year (16.4mpg, 5.2ppg, 4.9rpg). He will probably closer to the freshman year due to availability of minutes. Of course, I'm basing that on circumstantial evidence and a gut feeling (based on Coach K's past tendencies), so that could be just as wrong as getting excited about Coach K's "top-six" comment.

Bob Green
12-12-2012, 08:47 AM
I tend to think he'll be somewhere between Miles' freshman year (6.8 mpg, 1.8ppg, 1.4rpg) and his sophomore year (16.4mpg, 5.2ppg, 4.9rpg). He will probably closer to the freshman year due to availability of minutes.

I agree with you his minutes will probably be closer to Miles' freshman year minutes. Personally, I'd be happy to see Marshall play the minutes Ryan Kelly saw as a freshman, which was 6.5 minutes per game. Those minutes will get him the in-game experience he needs in order to be ready to step up and play 20 mpg or more as a sophomore. Of course, if Marshall is playing 12 mpg this season, without those minutes being driven by an injury to another player, that would mean he is excelling, which would be great for him and the team.

Kedsy
12-12-2012, 10:40 AM
I agree with you his minutes will probably be closer to Miles' freshman year minutes. Personally, I'd be happy to see Marshall play the minutes Ryan Kelly saw as a freshman, which was 6.5 minutes per game. Those minutes will get him the in-game experience he needs in order to be ready to step up and play 20 mpg or more as a sophomore. Of course, if Marshall is playing 12 mpg this season, without those minutes being driven by an injury to another player, that would mean he is excelling, which would be great for him and the team.

OK, here's the thing about both Miles's freshman year minutes and Ryan's freshman year minutes -- they both played hardly at all after January 1. If you count DNPs as zero minutes, Miles averaged 2.8 mpg after January 1 and Ryan averaged 3.3 mpg. I think even the doubters here at DBR are hoping for at least 6 or 7 mpg for Marshall after January 1, which would be twice as much playing time as either Miles or Ryan as freshmen.

Also, I know you said "or more," Bob, but unless we pull a miracle big man out of a hat, Marshall should be playing a lot more than 20 mpg as a sophomore.

Bob Green
12-12-2012, 11:10 AM
I think even the doubters here at DBR are hoping for at least 6 or 7 mpg for Marshall after January 1, which would be twice as much playing time as either Miles or Ryan as freshmen.

You are correct so I'll clarify my position to say I'll be happy if Marshall plays 6.5 mpg after January 1. However, I do desire to be sure everyone understands I am not a Marshall doubter (and I realize you didn't say I was). His ceiling is very high.


Also, I know you said "or more," Bob, but unless we pull a miracle big man out of a hat, Marshall should be playing a lot more than 20 mpg as a sophomore.

Again, you are correct, but once you throw in foul trouble, bad match-ups and other such intangibles, I imagine his numbers at the end of his sophomore season are closer to 20 than 30 mpg. Let's set the over/under at 25 and go from there.

Kedsy
12-12-2012, 11:31 AM
Again, you are correct, but once you throw in foul trouble, bad match-ups and other such intangibles, I imagine his numbers at the end of his sophomore season are closer to 20 than 30 mpg. Let's set the over/under at 25 and go from there.

Obviously it's all conjecture at this point, but who do you think will be playing center for the other 15 or 20 minutes? Josh? Amile? Considering our PF will probably be Amile or Alex or (hopefully) Jabari or (unlikely but possibly) Semi, that will be a very small lineup for a significant portion of each game. Unless he proves he can't handle it, I'd think Marshall should get as many minutes as he can handle.

CDu
12-12-2012, 11:33 AM
You are correct so I'll clarify my position to say I'll be happy if Marshall plays 6.5 mpg after January 1. However, I do desire to be sure everyone understands I am not a Marshall doubter (and I realize you didn't say I was). His ceiling is very high.

Again, you are correct, but once you throw in foul trouble, bad match-ups and other such intangibles, I imagine his numbers at the end of his sophomore season are closer to 20 than 30 mpg. Let's set the over/under at 25 and go from there.

Yeah, "doubter" seems to have a harsh connotation. I doubt Marshall will average 10mpg this year, but that's not because I doubt his ability to do so.

As for next year, if Marshall is good enough to start, I think he'll wind up closer to 30mpg than 20mpg. He is the only center on the roster, and (as of now) one of only 2 guys are are truly interior-oriented players, and the other is undersized for the C spot. But, that's a debate for another day/year.

NSDukeFan
12-12-2012, 12:36 PM
You are correct so I'll clarify my position to say I'll be happy if Marshall plays 6.5 mpg after January 1. However, I do desire to be sure everyone understands I am not a Marshall doubter (and I realize you didn't say I was). His ceiling is very high.



Again, you are correct, but once you throw in foul trouble, bad match-ups and other such intangibles, I imagine his numbers at the end of his sophomore season are closer to 20 than 30 mpg. Let's set the over/under at 25 and go from there.
I'm hoping Marshall proves me wrong, but right now I am taking the under.


Obviously it's all conjecture at this point, but who do you think will be playing center for the other 15 or 20 minutes? Josh? Amile? Considering our PF will probably be Amile or Alex or (hopefully) Jabari or (unlikely but possibly) Semi, that will be a very small lineup for a significant portion of each game. Unless he proves he can't handle it, I'd think Marshall should get as many minutes as he can handle.
Unless there is a big transfer (in both senses of the word big), I expect Duke will play small at the big positions and big at the small positions next year with a lot of 6'4-6'8 players playing most of the team's minutes. I think Duke has a coach that may be able to change the style of play to match the players he has.

CDu
12-12-2012, 01:34 PM
I'm hoping Marshall proves me wrong, but right now I am taking the under.

Unless there is a big transfer (in both senses of the word big), I expect Duke will play small at the big positions and big at the small positions next year with a lot of 6'4-6'8 players playing most of the team's minutes. I think Duke has a coach that may be able to change the style of play to match the players he has.

If Marshall can't handle starter's minutes next year, then I agree - we'll figure out a plan with multiple guys 6'8" on the floor. If we land Parker, we could see as many as 4 guys 6'8" on the floor for substantial stretches of the game. And I'd expect most of the time we'd have at least 3 guys that size out there. It'd be interesting to see, for sure.

That being said, I'm hopeful that Marshall (who will have had 2 years and 3 summers of physical development and experience in the Duke system by then) will be ready to handle starters' minutes. So we'll see.

wk2109
12-12-2012, 01:58 PM
If Marshall can't handle starter's minutes next year, then I agree - we'll figure out a plan with multiple guys 6'8" on the floor. If we land Parker, we could see as many as 4 guys 6'8" on the floor for substantial stretches of the game. And I'd expect most of the time we'd have at least 3 guys that size out there. It'd be interesting to see, for sure.

I can see this happening too. It could be similar to 08-09 when Lance started at center for the second half of the season and the team finished 20th in defensive efficiency. Brian and Miles were the only guys 6'10" or taller -- Brian played 11.9 mpg and Miles played 6.9 mpg in the games he entered (4.5 mpg overall). Of course, that team had the luxury of playing a terrific player like Kyle at the 4 for 32.2 mpg (a role perhaps Jabari, Alex, or Amile could fill). Next year's team will have more length available at the 2-3 spots than the 08-09 did, so even without an additional big or Marshall playing 25+ minutes, Duke could still be a very good defensive team next year.

licc85
12-12-2012, 07:14 PM
For whatever it's worth, I just read an article on ESPN written by Jay Bilas titled "The Bilas Index," where he mentions Marshall in his ranking of Louisville. Bilas seems to have a high opinion of Marshall, and one can infer that he assumes Marshall will get some significant time on the court. (How would be be able to affect Duke's ranking in his index otherwise?) I happen to respect Bilas' opinions, so this is good to hear, and makes me even more optimistic about Marshall. Take what you will from that.

roywhite
12-21-2012, 02:18 PM
To update some progress on Phase II at the Christmas break:

Team is shooting 48.3% FG, 41% 3-pt, and 74.6% FT

Some really good results from 3-pts:
Seth 40%
Rasheed 40.4%
Ryan 41.2%
Quinn 50%

Opponents shooting 38.1% FG, 30.7% 3-pt, and 69.8% FT

Duke with 15.4 assts/game
Opponents 9.0 assts/game

DukieInBrasil
12-21-2012, 03:13 PM
still no MP3, and no 2 minutes doesn't count.

Newton_14
12-21-2012, 10:27 PM
still no MP3, and no 2 minutes doesn't count.

Yeah, and he was back in the boot last night. Very disappointing. He needed these December games to get his feet wet prior to Conference play and now that opportunity is gone. I will say he looked good in his short stint. Would have loved to have seen him get 15-20 minutes to see how he would have done, but I am becoming a believer that he is actually as good as K and others keep saying. K said again just last week on his daily DBR that Marshall was in the top 6 before going down. I think we have a player. We just need him to get healthy.

That is the only disappointment I have thus far other than Murphy not being ready yet to be in the rotation. Other than that, wow, I love this team. They have come together much faster than I expected and they are better than I expected.

The biggest concern is how healthy will Seth be come mid to late season. If Seth can stay healthy, this team will make a lot of noise in the Spring.

Kedsy
12-21-2012, 10:30 PM
Yeah, and he was back in the boot last night. Very disappointing. He needed these December games to get his feet wet prior to Conference play and now that opportunity is gone. I will say he looked good in his short stint. Would have loved to have seen him get 15-20 minutes to see how he would have done, but I am becoming a believer that he is actually as good as K and others keep saying. K said again just last week on his daily DBR that Marshall was in the top 6 before going down. I think we have a player. We just need him to get healthy.

Hopefully he'll heal enough in the next week so he can get those minutes against Santa Clara and Davidson.


The biggest concern is how healthy will Seth be come mid to late season. If Seth can stay healthy, this team will make a lot of noise in the Spring.

You have to think the fact that K let him play good minutes in back-to-back games where we really didn't need him is a good sign, right?

Newton_14
12-21-2012, 10:47 PM
Hopefully he'll heal enough in the next week so he can get those minutes against Santa Clara and Davidson.



You have to think the fact that K let him play good minutes in back-to-back games where we really didn't need him is a good sign, right?

I think so, yeah. Though Seth did not look up to par last night, he certainly handled Atlantis just fine. But, as you know, conference play is a grind on healthy players. Opponents will play him very physically. I have never had shin splints so I have no idea what level of pain he is managing. I will say he looks healthy to the naked eye. Even last night when he wasn't sharp, he looked fine physically. I just worry he pays the piper somewhere down the line. Something to watch. Which makes Murphy's continued development all the more important. Were Seth to go down, Murphy would have to step up, to help make up for the offense lost. Tyler is great, but he is not going to give you points consistently. Murphy has the offensive talent to do that. Not fill the entire void by any stretch, but he, Rasheed, and Amile would have to combine to make up for Seth's offensive production for us to have a shot at remaining a top tier team.

It may never come to that, and I hope it doesn't. Just thinking about what would happen if he did go down at a bad time of the year.

superdave
12-22-2012, 07:22 AM
Just thinking about what would happen if he did go down at a bad time of the year.

If we lose Seth, Rasheed bumps over to the 2, and Alex and Amile would take on 10-20 minutes each. I think Tyler's minutes stay the same, but the two freshman would step in. Both can score and rebound. We would lose Seth's craftiness and shooting ability but might benefit on the boards some.

I do recall Hansborough managing shin splints all senior year. He missed a few games early if I recall, then remained steadily in the lineup the rest of the way. Hopefully Seth can manage it all year as well as he has the past 6 weeks.

Saratoga2
12-22-2012, 08:05 AM
If we lose Seth, Rasheed bumps over to the 2, and Alex and Amile would take on 10-20 minutes each. I think Tyler's minutes stay the same, but the two freshman would step in. Both can score and rebound. We would lose Seth's craftiness and shooting ability but might benefit on the boards some.

I do recall Hansborough managing shin splints all senior year. He missed a few games early if I recall, then remained steadily in the lineup the rest of the way. Hopefully Seth can manage it all year as well as he has the past 6 weeks.

Health is always a key issue. I believe Seth will continue to play but there will be nights where the inability to get practice minutes and the pain of his shin splints will make him less effective. Will the coaches be willing to substitute when Seth is off?

Marshall's health is also a problem for the team as we move into ACC play. You can look at his setback as potentially depriving us of a backup for Mason, should fouls, sickness or injury change our look. Let's hope his setback is not a long term one.

Coach K referred to the team as being mentally tired in the Elon game. I don't know what that means, but exams might have tired them. If so, why didn't it show in the Cornell game. It looked to me as though having Seth off as he was and Ryan having a subpar game finishing and rebounding until near the end of the game was what the competitiveness of the game was about.

cptnflash
12-22-2012, 09:32 AM
Yeah, and he was back in the boot last night. Very disappointing. He needed these December games to get his feet wet prior to Conference play and now that opportunity is gone. I will say he looked good in his short stint. Would have loved to have seen him get 15-20 minutes to see how he would have done, but I am becoming a believer that he is actually as good as K and others keep saying. K said again just last week on his daily DBR that Marshall was in the top 6 before going down. I think we have a player. We just need him to get healthy.

It was obvious in the two minutes Marshall played that he is going to be very good whenever he's finally healthy. He was as active as everyone has always claimed, but without the sense of cluelessness that plagued his older brothers during their first couple years at Duke. I went back and watched the short stretch from Wednesday where he was in the game, and never took my eyes off him the whole time. Unless I missed something, I think he made the correct read/play on every possession, particularly on defense where I never saw him out of position (granted, two minutes isn't much time to make a mistake, but freshman Mason/Miles didn't even need that much time to commit a stupid foul or wind up out of place going for an impossible block on D). Also, it looks to me like he plays mean, similar to Tyler, which I think will be awesome this year when he doesn't really need to manage his foul rate.

Get healthy, Marshall!

NSDukeFan
12-22-2012, 07:04 PM
It was obvious in the two minutes Marshall played that he is going to be very good whenever he's finally healthy. He was as active as everyone has always claimed, but without the sense of cluelessness that plagued his older brothers during their first couple years at Duke. I went back and watched the short stretch from Wednesday where he was in the game, and never took my eyes off him the whole time. Unless I missed something, I think he made the correct read/play on every possession, particularly on defense where I never saw him out of position (granted, two minutes isn't much time to make a mistake, but freshman Mason/Miles didn't even need that much time to commit a stupid foul or wind up out of place going for an impossible block on D). Also, it looks to me like he plays mean, similar to Tyler, which I think will be awesome this year when he doesn't really need to manage his foul rate.

Get healthy, Marshall!
I am pretty sure that a 7-footer with a Tyler-like mean-streak would not be fair.

superdave
01-03-2013, 12:46 PM
Health –
Experience –
Defense –
Rebounding –
Who is going to shoot? –
Leadership –
The Rotation –


To close out Phase II, Duke remained undefeated, remained #1 in the country and #2 in the KenPom statistical glamour show.

Healthwise, Marshall has played only 3 minutes all season but Seth Curry is coming off a strong stretch of the season and was ACC player of the week last week. Marshall may have some conditioning issues after his foot injury, but we are yet to see him play meaningful minutes.

Our seniors are leading the way, making up our top 3 leading scorers. Seth Curry was just named co-captain. They are a pretty consistent bunch at this point in their careers.

The rebounding issues have not been a big problem so far. We have seen Duke get beaten on the boards in the first half of a few games (Davidson, Ohio State), then correct the issue in the second half. Our guards have pitched in a little bit and we are forcing turnovers, so this is an issue that is being mititgated at this point in the season (and with a shorter bench and guard-heavy rotation to boot).

It's very difficult to complain about being 13-0. While it would be nice to rebound a little better and develop the bench more, those may be unlikely this year.

On to Phase III.

COYS
01-03-2013, 12:59 PM
To close out Phase II, Duke remained undefeated, remained #1 in the country and #2 in the KenPom statistical glamour show.

Healthwise, Marshall has played only 3 minutes all season but Seth Curry is coming off a strong stretch of the season and was ACC player of the week last week. Marshall may have some conditioning issues after his foot injury, but we are yet to see him play meaningful minutes.

Our seniors are leading the way, making up our top 3 leading scorers. Seth Curry was just named co-captain. They are a pretty consistent bunch at this point in their careers.

The rebounding issues have not been a big problem so far. We have seen Duke get beaten on the boards in the first half of a few games (Davidson, Ohio State), then correct the issue in the second half. Our guards have pitched in a little bit and we are forcing turnovers, so this is an issue that is being mititgated at this point in the season (and with a shorter bench and guard-heavy rotation to boot).

It's very difficult to complain about being 13-0. While it would be nice to rebound a little better and develop the bench more, those may be unlikely this year.

On to Phase III.

I think that's a good summary of Phase II. With regard to developing the bench, while Amile has had only limited minutes, he really hasn't posted a particularly stellar rebound rate. Currently, it sits just one percentage point above Rasheed's, so it remains to be seen if the addition of Amile into the rotation would actually improve defensive rebounding. The only area where, possibly, a personnel change might improve rebounding would be if Marshall were to take some minutes from Josh backing up Mason. That being said, Marshall would have to at least match Josh's ability to hedge on screens (something Josh has been very good at this year), which is a key component of our improved perimeter defense. Considering that playing Mason and Marshall together is probably not a likely scenario either, given the floor spacing issues we'd encounter, I doubt that improved rebounding will come from any shifts in the rotation.

As you mention, our guards are starting to pitch in on rebounding. Quinn, in particular, has been impressive given his (generous) listed height of 6'0. His quickness to the ball has really been an asset this year and his defensive rebound percentage of 11.2 percent is really impressive for a guy his size. And while Ryan's rebounding numbers have not been anything to write home about, his positional defense and his shot blocking have been a HUGE part of why our team defense has improved so much.

As has been mentioned before, Duke's defensive style does not lend itself to elite defensive rebounding numbers. However, as long as our guys make it a point of emphasis and can continue to make incremental improvements, I think the team will be just fine.

ChillinDuke
01-03-2013, 01:00 PM
To close out Phase II, Duke remained undefeated, remained #1 in the country and #2 in the KenPom statistical glamour show.

Healthwise, Marshall has played only 3 minutes all season but Seth Curry is coming off a strong stretch of the season and was ACC player of the week last week. Marshall may have some conditioning issues after his foot injury, but we are yet to see him play meaningful minutes.

Our seniors are leading the way, making up our top 3 leading scorers. Seth Curry was just named co-captain. They are a pretty consistent bunch at this point in their careers.

The rebounding issues have not been a big problem so far. We have seen Duke get beaten on the boards in the first half of a few games (Davidson, Ohio State), then correct the issue in the second half. Our guards have pitched in a little bit and we are forcing turnovers, so this is an issue that is being mititgated at this point in the season (and with a shorter bench and guard-heavy rotation to boot).

It's very difficult to complain about being 13-0. While it would be nice to rebound a little better and develop the bench more, those may be unlikely this year.

On to Phase III.

This.

And I'll posture not even necessarily rebound better, but getting better at putting bodies on guys. Someone in another thread pointed out how we are a switching/rotating style of defense which can get people out of position for rebounds. But I would still rest much easier if we could more consistently get a butt into someone and at least protect the basket from easy putbacks. If we don't get the rebound, so be it...reset the D. But the putbacks around the basket are my biggest concern - and bear in mind, biggest is a relative term.

- Chillin

sagegrouse
01-03-2013, 01:50 PM
To close out Phase II, Duke remained undefeated, remained #1 in the country and #2 in the KenPom statistical glamour show.

Healthwise, Marshall has played only 3 minutes all season but Seth Curry is coming off a strong stretch of the season and was ACC player of the week last week. Marshall may have some conditioning issues after his foot injury, but we are yet to see him play meaningful minutes.

Our seniors are leading the way, making up our top 3 leading scorers. Seth Curry was just named co-captain. They are a pretty consistent bunch at this point in their careers.

The rebounding issues have not been a big problem so far. We have seen Duke get beaten on the boards in the first half of a few games (Davidson, Ohio State), then correct the issue in the second half. Our guards have pitched in a little bit and we are forcing turnovers, so this is an issue that is being mititgated at this point in the season (and with a shorter bench and guard-heavy rotation to boot).

It's very difficult to complain about being 13-0. While it would be nice to rebound a little better and develop the bench more, those may be unlikely this year.

On to Phase III.

Great job, Superdave, shepherding us through Phase II -- and undefeated, to boot.

Here's my take:

The offense is very, very good and just needs a few tweaks. We have to watch for gimmick defenses and try to develop the flexibility (i.e., passing) when we get stuck.

The defense is good and still evolving, thanks in large part to Ryan and Rasheed. Ryan -- a defensive stopper -- who knew? Sheed is the most dynamic player we have had since JWill and his defense is very good and getting better. One area, cited by others, is that we have to better job of coming out of our defense and blocking out on the boards. Our rebounding margin is 36-33, not wonderful, but not inconsistent with the past NC teams (Hey! It's the Internet. A fan can dream, can't he?) The 2010 guys were the stars on the boards, winning 39-33. (Yay, Zoubs!) In 2001 it was only 39-38. In 1991 and 1992 the margins were 36-33 and 34-31.

Other areas of improvement involve intensity from the beginning of the game, not just after the halftime speech. I know, I know, we are getting the best shots of pretty good teams, who throw everything on the fire from the git-go and only succumb when they run out of fuel and fouls and good shots in the second half. We need more intense leadership from Mason and Quinn, our QB. Right now, our intense leadership comes off the bench in Tyler T.

We need to deepen the rotation. We fans, of course, want to see the new players on the court. But we need to be able to draw on more players in case of injury or inconsistency. I am hoping for an eighth man (or more), and I don't care if it is Amile, Alex, Marshall, or a combination.

Great start, guys! We are behind you 100 percent. On to the ACC schedule!!!

sagegrouse

NSDukeFan
01-03-2013, 07:29 PM
Great job, Superdave, shepherding us through Phase II -- and undefeated, to boot.

Here's my take:

The offense is very, very good and just needs a few tweaks. We have to watch for gimmick defenses and try to develop the flexibility (i.e., passing) when we get stuck.

The defense is good and still evolving, thanks in large part to Ryan and Rasheed. Ryan -- a defensive stopper -- who knew? Sheed is the most dynamic player we have had since JWill and his defense is very good and getting better. One area, cited by others, is that we have to better job of coming out of our defense and blocking out on the boards. Our rebounding margin is 36-33, not wonderful, but not inconsistent with the past NC teams (Hey! It's the Internet. A fan can dream, can't he?) The 2010 guys were the stars on the boards, winning 39-33. (Yay, Zoubs!) In 2001 it was only 39-38. In 1991 and 1992 the margins were 36-33 and 34-31.

Other areas of improvement involve intensity from the beginning of the game, not just after the halftime speech. I know, I know, we are getting the best shots of pretty good teams, who throw everything on the fire from the git-go and only succumb when they run out of fuel and fouls and good shots in the second half. We need more intense leadership from Mason and Quinn, our QB. Right now, our intense leadership comes off the bench in Tyler T.

We need to deepen the rotation. We fans, of course, want to see the new players on the court. But we need to be able to draw on more players in case of injury or inconsistency. I am hoping for an eighth man (or more), and I don't care if it is Amile, Alex, Marshall, or a combination.

Great start, guys! We are behind you 100 percent. On to the ACC schedule!!!

sagegrouse

I would like for the games to start after halftime for the rest of the year, if that is possible. The team has had some fabulous runs to start the second half.