This team's "ceiling"

[DavidBenAkiva]

The past few years, or maybe every year, Duke seems to peak in the early season tournaments. The exception to that, at least recently, would be the 2009-10 season in which the team got incrementally better throughout the year and won the NCAA tournament. Whether or not Duke peaks early is a matter of perception, not reality. Personally, I thought last year's team peaked during the trip to Tallahassee and then suffered a major blow when Ryan Kelly got injured. Turning to this season, I am curious what others think about how good this team can get. My thought is that they can get a lot better.

First, we must recognize that Ryan Kelly is either in a slump or not fully back from last season's foot injury. His shooting from all areas has declined. Last year, his FG, 3FG, and FT percentages were 44.4%/40.8%/80.7% with a Points Per Shot of 1.52. Those were excellent numbers, although the FG% could be a bit higher. Through 6 games this year, he is shooting at 43.6%/23.5%/67.9% with a PPS of 1.29. He averaged 11.8 points per game last year and the same so far this season. If he were shooting the ball like he normally does, he would average nearly 14 points a game. If he can get back close to his career averages, Kelly can make this team incredibly efficient on the offensive side of the floor.

Second, the bench has not contributed much in the way of scoring. Part of that has to be Coach K's decision to play a short rotation against superior competition. I'm not griping - this has proven to be an excellent strategy. Still, the team could become even better if younger bench players like Jefferson, Murphy, and Marshall Plumlee can start contributing once Duke gets into the softer portion of the schedule. The team could really benefit from being able to consistently extend the lead when Mason Plumlee and Kelly are off the floor as happened in the Kentucky game. That doesn't seem to be a strength at the moment.

Third, the team needs to rebound better, in particular by limiting the other teams' offensive rebounding. Duke is winning without a significant rebounding advantage. However, this is an area for improvement.

Fourth, and I'm reaching here, Quinn Cook needs to cut down on the turnovers. He is averaging 3.3 a game. Granted, that was against some really tough competition. If he can continue to score and distribute while raising his assist-to-turnover ratio above 2:1, Duke will have one of or the most efficient offenses in the NCAAs if they do not already.

Putting these four things together, I see Duke as having a lot of room for growth. What does everyone else think?

[roywhite]

Ceiling? National Champs.

Heck, they already are playing as well as anyone in the country.

Room for improvement? Absolutely.

[DukieInBrasil]

Ceiling? National Champs.

Heck, they already are playing as well as anyone in the country.

Room for improvement? Absolutely.
agreed. National Champs is always the ceiling for any team, but this team is already playing to the level where that seems very reachable.
As the OP, pointed out there is room for improvement and i generally agree with the points raised. I think Quinn's development however will impact the team the most though. We've been winning against good teams without dominating the boards, and if we improve there we'll give ourselves more margin of error, but it's not something that we need to improve on tremendously to have any hope of being Champions. Ditto for the play off the bench, any improvement simply gives us more margin of error. However, as Quinn gains more confidence and better repertoire with his teammates, i think the offensive efficiency could go even higher than it already is. He played dyn-o-mite in the Bahamas and we walked away withe trophy. Hopefully that trend continues.

[CDu]

I agree with Roy White. We are playing as well as anyone, and with our variety of weapons we are capable of winning the national championship. A championship should never be expected, but we have to be on the short list of teams with strong chances.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Ceiling? The sky is wide open, there is no ceiling! National Champions, as always! :cool:http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifhttp://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifhttp://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

[jcastranio]

The past few years, or maybe every year, Duke seems to peak in the early season tournaments. The exception to that, at least recently, would be the 2009-10 season in which the team got incrementally better throughout the year and won the NCAA tournament. Whether or not Duke peaks early is a matter of perception, not reality. Personally, I thought last year's team peaked during the trip to Tallahassee and then suffered a major blow when Ryan Kelly got injured. Turning to this season, I am curious what others think about how good this team can get. My thought is that they can get a lot better.

First, we must recognize that Ryan Kelly is either in a slump or not fully back from last season's foot injury. His shooting from all areas has declined. Last year, his FG, 3FG, and FT percentages were 44.4%/40.8%/80.7% with a Points Per Shot of 1.52. Those were excellent numbers, although the FG% could be a bit higher. Through 6 games this year, he is shooting at 43.6%/23.5%/67.9% with a PPS of 1.29. He averaged 11.8 points per game last year and the same so far this season. If he were shooting the ball like he normally does, he would average nearly 14 points a game. If he can get back close to his career averages, Kelly can make this team incredibly efficient on the offensive side of the floor.

Second, the bench has not contributed much in the way of scoring. Part of that has to be Coach K's decision to play a short rotation against superior competition. I'm not griping - this has proven to be an excellent strategy. Still, the team could become even better if younger bench players like Jefferson, Murphy, and Marshall Plumlee can start contributing once Duke gets into the softer portion of the schedule. The team could really benefit from being able to consistently extend the lead when Mason Plumlee and Kelly are off the floor as happened in the Kentucky game. That doesn't seem to be a strength at the moment.

Third, the team needs to rebound better, in particular by limiting the other teams' offensive rebounding. Duke is winning without a significant rebounding advantage. However, this is an area for improvement.

Fourth, and I'm reaching here, Quinn Cook needs to cut down on the turnovers. He is averaging 3.3 a game. Granted, that was against some really tough competition. If he can continue to score and distribute while raising his assist-to-turnover ratio above 2:1, Duke will have one of or the most efficient offenses in the NCAAs if they do not already.

Putting these four things together, I see Duke as having a lot of room for growth. What does everyone else think?


While I agree with the comments here - I don't think last year's team is a good comparison. We practiced early for China, had an advantage and played well very early. Then, Ohio State exposed our shortcomings on offense and defense. We never really progressed much from there - in fact, we may have regressed. Having Ryan would have got us another win or two - but I didn't really think we were title contenders last year.

This year's team feels different. We are much more balanced on offense and defense. We do have room for growth. We are playing with confidence.

[Kedsy]

While I agree with the comments here - I don't think last year's team is a good comparison. We practiced early for China, had an advantage and played well very early. Then, Ohio State exposed our shortcomings on offense and defense. We never really progressed much from there - in fact, we may have regressed.

After we beat Florida State in Tallahassee, we were 24-4 with the #1 ranked offense in the nation and a visibly improving defense. We obviously sputtered after that, in large part due to Ryan's injury but we didn't look so great the last three games of the regular season, either.

But I disagree that we never progressed after the pre-season tournament. Personally in the aftermath of the game at Florida State, I was marveling about how improved we appeared. At that moment in time, we looked as good as anyone in the country, with the possible exception of Kentucky.

[jay]

Ceiling? National Champs.

Heck, they already are playing as well as anyone in the country.

Room for improvement? Absolutely.

Agreed on all counts.

By about this time in the year (yes, it's only a few games in, but usually we've been tested against some tough opponents early on) you can really start to see what the team's strengths and weaknesses are. I remember last year watching the Maui tournament and thinking we escaped with a victory against a Kansas team that was still finding itself. I was really worried about the pending Ohio State game (fears that turned out to be very justified).

But this year, I get a different feeling from this team. Going into the Louisville game, I felt confident. I wouldn't have been surprised with a loss, but I wasn't biting my fingernails like last year.

Going into the Ohio State game, I'm even more confident. This team has that look of determination and fire that you don't see but every few years. I know I definitely didn't see it last year.

There's absolutely room for improvement. But not in the sense that it will get this team over the hump and take it from a team with lots of question marks to a team that can battle night in and night out. No, this year I think any improvements will take this team from one that is really hard to beat to one that is near impossible unless you play a perfect game against them. I really do feel like they're that good.

So, for me, the ceiling is the National Championship. Yes, I tell myself that every year, but not every year do I really feel it down deep in my gut. This year I do.

[OldPhiKap]

We have already beaten Kentucky on a less-than neutral floor, and won a three game in three day tourney against three tournament-bound teams (including the #2 team in the country). All four of these teams have athletic ability and uber-capable coaches (Calipari, Pitino, Shaka Smart, Tubby Smith). Each has a different style of play. And we won them all.

How are we talking about ceilings?!? Really?

If this team stays healthy, keeps improving, and gets the lucky bounce or two you need to go all the way -- well, we go all the way.



(of course, after our first loss, I reserve the right to join the lemmings in a condemnation of our eternal lack of rebounding/lack of big man coach/lack of bench production/lack of bench development/game has passed K by/rely too heavily on the three/random but timely observation/we generally forget how to play basketball in the big games rant).

[DavidBenAkiva]

How are we talking about ceilings?!? Really?

I used a journalism trick by leading with an inflammatory word: ceiling.

I think we are talking about ceilings for a few reasons. For starters, Duke has a reputation of performing well early in a season. More importantly, I feel there is a perception out there that other teams have more room for growth than does Duke. Jeff Goodman, who did make the strong case that Duke should be considered #1 at this moment in time, also said in a recent article that three of the tougher teams we faced: Kentucky, Minnesota, and Louisville, all had injuries or missing personnel that precluded them from being at "full strength." There is an implication bordering on belief that Kentucky and others may surpass Duke by the time all is said and done. Well I don't think Duke is a finished product. I think there is more room for growth than meets the eye.

[mr. synellinden]

I used a journalism trick by leading with an inflammatory word: ceiling.

I think we are talking about ceilings for a few reasons. For starters, Duke has a reputation of performing well early in a season. More importantly, I feel there is a perception out there that other teams have more room for growth than does Duke. Jeff Goodman, who did make the strong case that Duke should be considered #1 at this moment in time, also said in a recent article that three of the tougher teams we faced: Kentucky, Minnesota, and Louisville, all had injuries or missing personnel that precluded them from being at "full strength." There is an implication bordering on belief that Kentucky and others may surpass Duke by the time all is said and done. Well I don't think Duke is a finished product. I think there is more room for growth than meets the eye.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/weekend_in_review_bruinses_collapses

Two excerpts (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/weekend_in_review_bruinses_collapses):

"Hey, it’s not my fault the Battle 4 Atlantis organizers decided to make Duke run a gauntlet of teams that has to be one of the most difficult in the history of preseason tournaments."

"[N]o other human-ranked team has played anything close to the schedule Duke has thus far."

[mo.st.dukie]

I used a journalism trick by leading with an inflammatory word: ceiling.

I think we are talking about ceilings for a few reasons. For starters, Duke has a reputation of performing well early in a season. More importantly, I feel there is a perception out there that other teams have more room for growth than does Duke. Jeff Goodman, who did make the strong case that Duke should be considered #1 at this moment in time, also said in a recent article that three of the tougher teams we faced: Kentucky, Minnesota, and Louisville, all had injuries or missing personnel that precluded them from being at "full strength." There is an implication bordering on belief that Kentucky and others may surpass Duke by the time all is said and done. Well I don't think Duke is a finished product. I think there is more room for growth than meets the eye.


And Duke has Marshall Plumlee, Amile Jefferson, and Alex Murphy. All three are freshmen and all three could make an impact on this team. That's the biggest spots where Duke can get better. All three of those guys can help with Duke's current weaknesses of rebounding, depth, and size on the wing. It's just a matter of slowly bringing them a long and building them up. Both Alex and Amile got minutes in the first half against Louisville. On top of that, I guess don't realize that Cook is an inexperienced PG and Sulaimon is a freshman, maybe people are under the impression that those guys are more experienced because of how well they've played. Both will get better and both will make the three seniors better.