pfrduke
11-26-2012, 09:10 AM
The ACC went 1-for-4 in preseason tournaments this week (with a 3rd and two 5ths, so at least an overall record of 9-3), and it's possibly a surprise that the 1 was Duke, rather than UNC, given the relative strengths of the respective fields. In successfully navigating the ballroom in the Bahamas, Duke took down three teams that Pomeroy puts in the top 18 (I think Minnesota may be a top 20 team, but Pomeroy is still seriously overweighting the Big 10. Wisconsin is #11 in today's ranking, and has been smacked by both Florida and Creighton. Does not compute.) and locked up the program's sixth-straight pre-season tournament title. I'm not sure that they keep records of those kinds of things, but until someone tells me otherwise, I'm simply going to assume that no other team has won six straight, so kudos all around.
This week brings us a pre-season event of a different variety with the 14th annual (typing that made me feel old) ACC/B1G challenge. This year's has some subtext with the recently announced shift by Maryland from one conference to the other. The ACC is also looking to shift momentum coming off of three straight losing seasons, with last year being a 4-8 drubbing. Not surprisingly, given the above-mentioned overweighting of the strength of the Big 10 by Pomeroy, the ACC shows up as a pretty heavy underdog in this year's tilt, with only 4 teams coming in as the favorites (per Pomeroy). None of the ACC's teams are better than 68% favorites, while 6 of the Big 10 teams are 75% or better favorites. Seemingly, the odds are heavily stacked in favor of the midwest. Let's take a look at the challenge and other action from the week ahead. This is a big week for figuring out where the ACC will fall in the conference pecking order - the weekend has some tough test against good squads from major and mid-major conferences and a robust performance by the conference will go a long way toward putting the ACC back toward the top. Several of the wins may be upsets, but quite frankly the conference is due for some upset wins.
Monday is dark - now that the challenge is 12 on 12, all games are Tuesday/Wednesday.
Tuesday has two of the ACC's favorites in action as well as some of the better chances to steal upsets. The Big 10 has two road favorites, including Minnesota, which plays at Florida State on Tuesday. Since the loss to South Alabama the Noles have been playing well, climbing from 63 into the low 30s (before a little backslide due to movement of other squads), and the Leon County Civic Center can be a hostile environment. FSU is the ACC underdog with the best odds of winning, and an upset here would go a long way toward making the conference competitive this season. Maryland could also score a victory for the ACC (on it's way out the door) by picking up a road with at Northwestern. The Cats are undefeated, but against one of the nation's easiest schedules, and needed overtime to get by Illinois State. Maryland is frisky, as it showed against Kentucky, and they could steal another win here as well. On the favorite side, Virginia Tech hosts Iowa and Wake Forest hosts Nebraska (in a matchup of two of the worst major conference teams this season). The marquee event of the night is UNC's trip to Bloomington, where the #1 Hoosiers will pose a formidable obstacle to a young Heels team. And NC State looks to redeem some of its lofty pre-season expectations with a strong showing on the road at Michigan, another top 5 team.
[46]Florida State hosts [13]Minnesota
[81]Virginia Tech hosts [57]Iowa
[31]NC State at [6]Michigan
[94]Maryland at [55]Northwestern
[206]Wake Forest hosts [220]Nebraska
[14]North Carolina at [1]Indiana
Wednesday is highlighted by the top 5 (in the real polls) matchup of Duke and Ohio State in Cameron. Duke seeks revenge for last year's beat-down in Columbus - it also seeks to preserve a non-conference home winning streak that is essentially as old as the challenge (last loss = 2000 against St. John's). The ACC's other Wednesday favorite is Clemson, which hosts Purdue. Clemson put up a good fight against a very good Gonzaga team, and the Boilermakers have had a bit of a rough start to the season (albeit against a somewhat tough schedule). The Big 10's home teams look like very solid favorites on Wednesday - Illinois should be much better than Georgia Tech; ditto Wisconsin over Virginia (even if the Badgers are very overrated by Pomeroy). BC might be able to knock off Penn State - little-known fact: BC has the second-best winning percentage of any team in the challenge (behind Duke) and is undefeated on the road. Of course, the only team to beat them was Penn State last year in Chestnut Hill, and it's not clear that this year's Eagles are that much improved (as Exhibit A, losing at home to Bryant). Finally, another game that could tip the final outcome is Michigan State at Miami, the ACC's other home underdog. Miami has been disappointing, with a loss already to Florida-Gulf Coast and lackluster performances in wins over other regional Florida schools (and Detroit). But they haven't really been a full strength yet this year, and finally should be Wednesday night - Durand Scott is back off his suspension, Reggie Johnson appears back off of a lower leg injury, and so for the first time this year the featured lineup can roll out and challenge the Spartans. MSU could be beatable - the win over Kansas is good, but they also have the loss to UConn and a couple of very close home games against Boise State and Louisiana-Lafayette.
[53]Virginia at [11]Wisconsin
[41]Clemson hosts [51]Purdue
[59]Miami hosts [15]Michigan State
[79]Georgia Tech at [43]Illinois
[182]Boston College at [109]Penn State
[8]Duke hosts [7]Ohio State
Thursday and Friday are dark - rest, recuperate, and (hopefully) revel in an ACC/Big Ten win
Saturday puts half the conference back in action with games all throughout the day. There's a triple-header at 2:00 with Duke hosting Delaware, Virginia Tech hosting Oklahoma State, and Miami traveling to UMass. The Blue Hens already hold an upset win over UVA and fared respectably in NYC - Pomeroy has them as the CAA's third best team. The Pokes thrashed NC State in Charleston and have two of the nation's best in Le'Bryan Nash and Marcus Smart. And Massachusetts already holds a couple of buzzer beaters. As the afternoon wears on, Virginia jumps into action against UW-Green Bay (a Wisconsin-based double-header for the Cavs this week). Evening games put UNC back at home against UAB, and send the Deacons on the road to Richmond to take on the Spiders, again one of the A-10's better squads (Pomeroy gives Wake a 1-in-8 chance of winning).
[8]Duke hosts [96]Delaware
[81]Virginia Tech hosts [29]Oklahoma State
[59]Miami at [82]Massachusetts
[53]Virginia hosts [138]Wisconsin-Green Bay
[14]UNC hosts [161]Alabama-Birmingham
[206]Wake Forest at [64]Richmond
Sunday is a little quieter with just three teams in action. Clemson has its rivalry game with South Carolina (here's hoping the basketball team fares better than the football team - and it should, as the Gamecocks' hoops squad is not very good). FSU takes on Mercer at home, and Maryland takes on George Mason (also holders of a win over the Cavaliers - the CAA has been tough on Virginia this year) in the BB&T in DC.
[41]Clemson at [146]South Carolina
[46]Florida State hosts [121]Mercer
[94]Maryland vs. [80]George Mason in Washington D.C.
ACC Non-Conference Record: 48-15
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 6-5
Atlantic 10: 4-2
Atlantic Sun: 6-1
Big XII: 0-2
Big East: 1-1
Big South: 6-0
Big Ten: 2-0
Big West: 1-0
Colonial: 2-2
CUSA: 3-0
Horizon: 1-0
MAAC: 2-1
MAC: 2-0
NEC: 1-1
OVC: 1-0
Pac-12: 0-1
Patriot: 1-0
SEC: 3-1
Southern: 4-1
Southland: 1-0
Sun Belt: 3-1
West Coast: 2-1
WAC: 1-0
Non D-I: 1-0
This week brings us a pre-season event of a different variety with the 14th annual (typing that made me feel old) ACC/B1G challenge. This year's has some subtext with the recently announced shift by Maryland from one conference to the other. The ACC is also looking to shift momentum coming off of three straight losing seasons, with last year being a 4-8 drubbing. Not surprisingly, given the above-mentioned overweighting of the strength of the Big 10 by Pomeroy, the ACC shows up as a pretty heavy underdog in this year's tilt, with only 4 teams coming in as the favorites (per Pomeroy). None of the ACC's teams are better than 68% favorites, while 6 of the Big 10 teams are 75% or better favorites. Seemingly, the odds are heavily stacked in favor of the midwest. Let's take a look at the challenge and other action from the week ahead. This is a big week for figuring out where the ACC will fall in the conference pecking order - the weekend has some tough test against good squads from major and mid-major conferences and a robust performance by the conference will go a long way toward putting the ACC back toward the top. Several of the wins may be upsets, but quite frankly the conference is due for some upset wins.
Monday is dark - now that the challenge is 12 on 12, all games are Tuesday/Wednesday.
Tuesday has two of the ACC's favorites in action as well as some of the better chances to steal upsets. The Big 10 has two road favorites, including Minnesota, which plays at Florida State on Tuesday. Since the loss to South Alabama the Noles have been playing well, climbing from 63 into the low 30s (before a little backslide due to movement of other squads), and the Leon County Civic Center can be a hostile environment. FSU is the ACC underdog with the best odds of winning, and an upset here would go a long way toward making the conference competitive this season. Maryland could also score a victory for the ACC (on it's way out the door) by picking up a road with at Northwestern. The Cats are undefeated, but against one of the nation's easiest schedules, and needed overtime to get by Illinois State. Maryland is frisky, as it showed against Kentucky, and they could steal another win here as well. On the favorite side, Virginia Tech hosts Iowa and Wake Forest hosts Nebraska (in a matchup of two of the worst major conference teams this season). The marquee event of the night is UNC's trip to Bloomington, where the #1 Hoosiers will pose a formidable obstacle to a young Heels team. And NC State looks to redeem some of its lofty pre-season expectations with a strong showing on the road at Michigan, another top 5 team.
[46]Florida State hosts [13]Minnesota
[81]Virginia Tech hosts [57]Iowa
[31]NC State at [6]Michigan
[94]Maryland at [55]Northwestern
[206]Wake Forest hosts [220]Nebraska
[14]North Carolina at [1]Indiana
Wednesday is highlighted by the top 5 (in the real polls) matchup of Duke and Ohio State in Cameron. Duke seeks revenge for last year's beat-down in Columbus - it also seeks to preserve a non-conference home winning streak that is essentially as old as the challenge (last loss = 2000 against St. John's). The ACC's other Wednesday favorite is Clemson, which hosts Purdue. Clemson put up a good fight against a very good Gonzaga team, and the Boilermakers have had a bit of a rough start to the season (albeit against a somewhat tough schedule). The Big 10's home teams look like very solid favorites on Wednesday - Illinois should be much better than Georgia Tech; ditto Wisconsin over Virginia (even if the Badgers are very overrated by Pomeroy). BC might be able to knock off Penn State - little-known fact: BC has the second-best winning percentage of any team in the challenge (behind Duke) and is undefeated on the road. Of course, the only team to beat them was Penn State last year in Chestnut Hill, and it's not clear that this year's Eagles are that much improved (as Exhibit A, losing at home to Bryant). Finally, another game that could tip the final outcome is Michigan State at Miami, the ACC's other home underdog. Miami has been disappointing, with a loss already to Florida-Gulf Coast and lackluster performances in wins over other regional Florida schools (and Detroit). But they haven't really been a full strength yet this year, and finally should be Wednesday night - Durand Scott is back off his suspension, Reggie Johnson appears back off of a lower leg injury, and so for the first time this year the featured lineup can roll out and challenge the Spartans. MSU could be beatable - the win over Kansas is good, but they also have the loss to UConn and a couple of very close home games against Boise State and Louisiana-Lafayette.
[53]Virginia at [11]Wisconsin
[41]Clemson hosts [51]Purdue
[59]Miami hosts [15]Michigan State
[79]Georgia Tech at [43]Illinois
[182]Boston College at [109]Penn State
[8]Duke hosts [7]Ohio State
Thursday and Friday are dark - rest, recuperate, and (hopefully) revel in an ACC/Big Ten win
Saturday puts half the conference back in action with games all throughout the day. There's a triple-header at 2:00 with Duke hosting Delaware, Virginia Tech hosting Oklahoma State, and Miami traveling to UMass. The Blue Hens already hold an upset win over UVA and fared respectably in NYC - Pomeroy has them as the CAA's third best team. The Pokes thrashed NC State in Charleston and have two of the nation's best in Le'Bryan Nash and Marcus Smart. And Massachusetts already holds a couple of buzzer beaters. As the afternoon wears on, Virginia jumps into action against UW-Green Bay (a Wisconsin-based double-header for the Cavs this week). Evening games put UNC back at home against UAB, and send the Deacons on the road to Richmond to take on the Spiders, again one of the A-10's better squads (Pomeroy gives Wake a 1-in-8 chance of winning).
[8]Duke hosts [96]Delaware
[81]Virginia Tech hosts [29]Oklahoma State
[59]Miami at [82]Massachusetts
[53]Virginia hosts [138]Wisconsin-Green Bay
[14]UNC hosts [161]Alabama-Birmingham
[206]Wake Forest at [64]Richmond
Sunday is a little quieter with just three teams in action. Clemson has its rivalry game with South Carolina (here's hoping the basketball team fares better than the football team - and it should, as the Gamecocks' hoops squad is not very good). FSU takes on Mercer at home, and Maryland takes on George Mason (also holders of a win over the Cavaliers - the CAA has been tough on Virginia this year) in the BB&T in DC.
[41]Clemson at [146]South Carolina
[46]Florida State hosts [121]Mercer
[94]Maryland vs. [80]George Mason in Washington D.C.
ACC Non-Conference Record: 48-15
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 6-5
Atlantic 10: 4-2
Atlantic Sun: 6-1
Big XII: 0-2
Big East: 1-1
Big South: 6-0
Big Ten: 2-0
Big West: 1-0
Colonial: 2-2
CUSA: 3-0
Horizon: 1-0
MAAC: 2-1
MAC: 2-0
NEC: 1-1
OVC: 1-0
Pac-12: 0-1
Patriot: 1-0
SEC: 3-1
Southern: 4-1
Southland: 1-0
Sun Belt: 3-1
West Coast: 2-1
WAC: 1-0
Non D-I: 1-0